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Subject: International Relations

  • Bali G20 summit

    g20

    Leaders of the G-20 nations gathered at Bali in Indonesia for the 17th summit of the world’s most advanced economies.

    Agenda of this summit

    • The motto for this summit is Recover Together, Recover Stronger.
    • The leaders will engage in discussions over three sessions on-
    1. Food and Energy security
    2. Health Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, and
    3. Digital Transformation

    About G-20

    • Formed in 1999, the G20 is an international forum of the governments and central bank governors from 20 major economies.
    • Collectively, the G20 economies account for around 85 percent of the Gross World Product (GWP), 80 percent of world trade.
    • To tackle the problems or address issues that plague the world, the heads of governments of the G20 nations periodically participate in summits.
    • In addition to it, the group also hosts separate meetings of the finance ministers and foreign ministers.
    • The G20 has no permanent staff of its own and its chairmanship rotates annually between nations divided into regional groupings.

    Aims and objectives

    • The Group was formed with the aim of studying, reviewing, and promoting high-level discussion of policy issues pertaining to the promotion of international financial stability.
    • The forum aims to pre-empt the balance of payments problems and turmoil on financial markets by improved coordination of monetary, fiscal, and financial policies.
    • It seeks to address issues that go beyond the responsibilities of any one organization.

    Members of G20

    • The members of the G20 consist of 19 individual countries plus the European Union (EU).
    • The 19 member countries of the forum are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom and the United States.
    • The European Union is represented by the European Commission and by the European Central Bank.

    Why was the G-20 created?

    For emerging nations: It was created as an acceptable medium between the more “elitist” G-7 (then the G-8), and the more unwieldy 38-member Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

    • Increasing representation: Over the past two decades, the global economic balance has shifted, and the G-20 has been seen as a more representative and egalitarian grouping of global leadership.
    • Reducing groupism within: The G-20 was conceived in a more unified, post-Soviet era, when western economies made the rules, China was just on the rise and Russia was still recovering from its breakup.
    • Economic boost for west: It was particularly useful in steering the global economy after the global financing crisis and banking collapse of 2008.
    • Global-south on focus: Significantly, next year the “Troika” of G-20 will be made up of emerging economies for the first time with India, Indonesia and Brazil — an indicator of the shift in the global economic agenda towards the Global South.

    Economic significance of G-20

    • G-20 countries represent 85% of the global GDP.
    • It accounts for 75% of global trade and 66% of the world population.

    What makes this G-20 different from others?

    • War mongers at table: For the world, this is the first G-20 since Russia began the war in Ukraine and the west imposed sanctions on Russia.
    • Hosting a stronger China: This is only the second time Chinese President Xi Jinping has travelled abroad since the COVID pandemic, and the first time since he was re-elected at China’s Party Congress last month.
    • Next chair for India: For India, the importance of the summit of the world’s most advanced economies is that it is India’s turn to host the summit next.

    Bilateral meets on the sidelines

    • All eyes will also be on the bilateral summits happening by the sidelines — including the Biden-Xi summit at a time when U.S.-China tensions are at a high.
    • While neither Delhi nor Beijing have confirmed a Modi-Xi meeting, any interaction between the two leaders will be the first since the military stand-off at the LAC.
    • PM Modi is expected to meet many of the G-20 leaders and others, and will invite them to next year’s summit in India.
    • Among the leaders who are attending for the first time as heads of their countries are UK PM Rishi Sunak.

     

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  • What is the East Asia Summit?

    Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar addressed the East Asia Summit on the last day of his visit to Cambodia, as the three-day Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit concluded.

    East Asia Summit

    • Simply, the EAS is an ASEAN initiative and refers to the annual Meeting of Heads of States/Governments of these countries, where they are able to discuss common concerns and interests.
    • Beginning in 2005, 16 participating countries comprised EAS, with their first meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
    • These members were the 10 ASEAN countries, Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea.
    • ASEAN’s 10 member countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
    • The United States and the Russian Federation joined at the 6th East Asia Summit in 2011.

    Why was it created?

    • Its creation was based on the idea of enhancing cooperation among East Asian countries and those in the neighbouring regions.
    • Six priority areas of cooperation were identified – environment and energy, education, finance, global health issues and pandemic diseases, natural disaster management, and ASEAN Connectivity.

    Topics discussed

    The following issues have been discussed by the countries

    • Chinese claims over the South China Sea
    • United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),
    • Terrorism
    • Actions of North Korea and
    • Conflict situation in Myanmar

    EAS’s links with India

    • This year marks the 30th anniversary of ASEAN-India relations and is being celebrated as the ASEAN-India Friendship Year.
    • In a joint statement, ASEAN-India acknowledged the deep civilizational linkages, maritime connectivity, and cross-cultural exchanges between Southeast Asia and India.
    • All these have grown stronger over the last 30 years, providing a strong foundation for ASEAN-India relations.

    New developments

    • India has announced an additional contribution of USD 5 million to the ASEAN-India science and technology fund.
    • It would enhance cooperation in sectors of public health, renewable energy and smart agriculture.

     

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  • Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson

    kherson

    Ukraine’s defence and intelligence unit has reported on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson but predicts it to be a delusion for a retreat.

    Where is Kherson?

    • Geographically, Kherson is a strategic location for Russia and Ukraine.
    • Situated in the northwest of the Dnipro River, the province shares borders with Donetsk, Crimea and the Black Sea.

    Why is it important for Russia?

    • With Moscow capturing Crimea in 2014, the occupation of Kherson in March 2022 has benefited Russia in transferring its military from Crimea to counter Ukraine.
    • It provides access to Odesa and Black Sea ports in the west and serves as the main route to secure southern Ukraine.

    Implications of regaining for Ukraine

    • For Ukraine, regaining Kherson is significant to protect its population in Kalanchak and Chaplynka districts and also to recapture Crimea.
    • Kherson is also an important agricultural region, with irrigation channels.

    How did Kherson come under Russia’s control?

    • In early March 2022, Kherson was captured by Russia through intense fighting.
    • The battle of Kherson proved to be the starting point to capturing and occupying the southern part of Ukraine while the battles for Kharkiv and Kyiv in the north progressed.
    • Russia’s hold over Kherson since March 2022 enabled Moscow to capture the key port cities — Mariupol in the Sea Azov, and Odesa, thus expanding control.
    • Kherson’s irrigation canals were used as defence positions, creating a strong line preventing Ukraine’s counter-attacks.
    • Russia also had positioned its soldiers in Kherson and stockpiled the ammunition.

    Why has Moscow announced its withdrawal from Kherson?

    • Mobilisation failure: When Russia was advancing rapidly in capturing the southern and northern cities of Ukraine, its military personnel and weapon systems started to run thin.
    • Unexperienced troops: The failure of new recruits added an additional challenge to Russia to keep its hold against the Ukraine counter-offensive in Kherson.
    • Inability of Russia to govern Kherson: Despite imposing martial law, Russia could not effectively rule Kherson; the three-level security in the occupied areas could not enforce Russia’s control on the ground.
    • Ukraine’s expanding counter-offensive: Until August, Ukraine was supplied only with short-range and low-grade weapons by the West. On the other hand, Russia has been facing challenges in augmenting its military hardware on the battleground.

    Is the withdrawal final, or a tactical move by Russia?

    • Ukraine is advancing: Russia’s new mobilisation has failed to stop the advancing of Ukraine forces.
    • Russia is weakening: The challenges to remobilise its defence systems and the shortage of weapons must have played a role in Russia’s withdrawal.
    • Inevitable western intervention: With Ukraine strengthening its military capacity through support from the west, upgrading from land-based to air-based to heavy battle tanks, Russia is facing a challenge to hold its occupied territories in Ukraine.

    Conclusion

    • Withdrawal from Kherson exposes a serious gap in Russia’s strategy to hold southern Ukraine.
    • However, it also underlines its strategy — to withdraw under serious attack or resistance by the Ukrainian forces — as it happened in Kyiv and Kharkiv.

     

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  • G20 Presidency: India can be voice for developing world

    G20

    Context

    • Government of India launched the logo, website and theme for India’s presidency of the G20, setting the tone for the country’s G20 presidency, beginning December 1. Modi’s clarion call was “One Earth, One Family, One Future”, aptly underscored by the phrase “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”.

    What is G-20?

    • Formed in 1999, the G20 is an international forum of the governments and central bank governors from 20 major economies.
    • It brings together 19 of the world’s major economies and the European Union.
    • Its members account for more than 80% of global GDP, 75% of trade and 60% of population
    • To tackle the problems or address issues that plague the world, the heads of governments of the G20 nations periodically participate in summits.
    • India has been a member of the G20 since its inception in 1999.

    Do you know the aims and objective of G20?

    • The Group was formed with the aim of studying, reviewing, and promoting high-level discussion of policy issues pertaining to the promotion of international financial stability.
    • The forum aims to pre-empt the balance of payments problems and turmoil on financial markets by improved coordination of monetary, fiscal, and financial policies.
    • It seeks to address issues that go beyond the responsibilities of any one organization.
    • Its members account for more than 80% of global GDP, 75% of trade and 60% of population.

    G20

    Current Global scenario and India’s G20 Presidency

    • War between Russia and west: It must nonetheless countenance a complex geopolitical moment, with tensions between G7 nations and Russia over the war in Ukraine, and growing friction between the US and China.
    • India’s efforts to be a meditator: PM Modi’s recent advice to President Putin that “now is not the time for war” is anchored in the ethos of peace and non-violence, the legacy of Buddha and Gandhi.
    • Energy crisis: The developmental agenda must receive first billing. Differences over energy diversification and the emerging challenges in trade and technology will need reconciliation.
    • Economic crisis: Stagflation in the US, China and Europe threatens to affect the global economic outlook. Policy coherence in macroeconomics and trade is an important imperative.
    • Supply chain disruptions: At the “Global Supply Chain Resilience” meeting in October 2021, Modi advocated cooperation on three critical aspects trusted source, transparency and time frame to improve global supply chains. At the SCO Summit this year, he cited the disruption of supply chains due to the Ukraine crisis and spoke of the unprecedented energy and food crises.

    g20

    What India can show to the world?

    • Growing economy and rising stature: India’s G20 presidency coincides with its growing confidence, matched by its rising stature and high economic growth rate.
    • India’s digital infrastructure: India’s commitment to digital transformation will be a key element in forging an accessible and inclusive digital public architecture. The country’s exemplary success with the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), Direct Benefits Transfer and Aadhaar authentication in welfare schemes has growing relevance to the developing world.
    • Efforts for TRIPS waiver on vaccine: The use of the CoWIN platform enhanced vaccine accessibility and equity. India has made a strong pitch for a TRIPS waiver to ensure equitable access to vaccine production.
    • Vaccine assistance to the world: India’s commitment to advancing South-South cooperation is well acknowledged. At the height of the pandemic, India provided 250 million vaccine doses to 101 countries, apart from other medical assistance.
    • SAGAR and Blue Economy: India’s global initiatives in recent years such as SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in The Region), “blue economy”, “clean oceans”, and disaster-resilient infrastructure have the potential to gain traction in the G20.
    • India as true climate leader: PM Modi’s “Panchamrit” announcements at COP26 — net zero by 2070, non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030, 50 per cent of energy requirement through renewables by 2030, reduction of carbon emission by 1 billion tonnes by 2030, and reduction of carbon intensity in the Indian economy to less than 45 per cent by 2030 — established India as a climate leader.

    What should be India’s Priority as President of G20?

    • Open application programming interface: As economies everywhere move rapidly towards digitalization, it is important to develop a consensus on an open source, open application programming interface (API) and an interoperable framework for public digital platforms on which the private sector can freely innovate. This would help maximize the impact of the digital transformation for the global public good, including new data, measurement tools, indicators of economic growth and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
    • Promotion of LiFE philosophy: At the COP26 in Glasgow, Modi proposed Mission LiFE, which places individual behavior at the centre of the global climate action narrative. The Mission intends to establish and nurture a global network of individuals known as Pro-Planet People (P3), committed to adopting and promoting environmentally friendly lifestyles. This is based on the idea that responsible individual behavior can undo the damage wrought upon nature.
    • Focus on climate financing: At COP27 as well as during its G20 presidency, India will have to focus attention on climate finance, especially a new quantified goal beyond the existing annual $100 billion pledge by Advanced Economies (AEs) to assist developing nations in climate change adaptation and mitigation from 2020 to 2025. The delayed pledge is expected to be fulfilled in 2023 during India’s presidency and from there on, the G20 needs to raise the bar.
    • Clean energy partnership: The G20 presidency will provide India with an opportunity to give impetus to several of its initiatives for clean energy partnerships especially in solar, wind and hydrogen with the EU, Japan and the US. It will provide a platform to give a fillip to the idea of, “One Sun, One World, One Grid”, first mooted by Modi at the International Solar Alliance (ISA) in 2018.
    • Achieving the Net Zero target: India has the scale and capacity to set a shining example of rapid and decarbonized economic growth to help realize the G20’s global net zero ambitions. A viable international framework for development and international trade in GH2, together with green ammonia and green shipping, is the key. Reliable supplies of critical minerals and technological collaborations for energy storage, including a global battery coalition, could provide answers.
    • Nuclear energy as an alternative: Given the nascent support today for civilian nuclear energy in Europe due to energy market volatility, the G20 could work toward an expanded and robust civilian nuclear energy cooperation framework, including for small modular reactors.
    • Reforming the multilateralism: Multilateral institutions are perceived today as unrepresentative, ineffective, or worse still, both. The call for a new multilateralism and reassessment of the Global Financial Order to ensure adequate credit enhancement and blended finance for sustainable green transitions reflects a popular global sentiment.

    g20

    Conclusion

    • India’s presidency should represent the widest and most vulnerable constituencies, especially in South Asia. This can truly advance intra-South Asian economic integration, which is so essential for India’s rise.

    Mains question

    Q. India assumed G20 presidency with a mantra of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam. In light of this What should be the India’s Priority as President?

     

  • PM unveils G20 logo: Significance of the lotus on it

    g20

    PM unveiled the logo, theme and website of India’s G20 presidency.

    What is G20?

    • The G20 was formed in 1999 in the backdrop of the financial crisis of the late 1990s that hit East Asia and Southeast Asia in particular.
    • The first G20 Summit took place in 2008 in Washington DC, US.
    • Its aim was to secure global financial stability by involving middle-income countries.
    • Its prominent members are: Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the UK, the US, and the EU.
    • Spain is invited as a permanent guest.

    Presidency of G20

    • The presidency of the G20 rotates every year among members.
    • The country holding the presidency, together with the previous and next presidency-holder, forms the ‘Troika’ to ensure continuity of the G20 agenda.
    • During India’s presidency, India, Indonesia and Brazil will form the troika.
    • This would be the first time when the troika would consist of three developing countries and emerging economies.

    How does the G20 work?

    • The G20 has no permanent secretariat.
    • The agenda and work are coordinated by representatives of the G20 countries, known as ‘Sherpas’, who work together with the finance ministers and governors of the central banks.
    • On the advice of the G7 Finance Ministers, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors began holding meetings to discuss the response to the global financial crisis that occurred.
    • Since 1999, an annual meeting of finance ministers has taken place.

    Economic significance of G20

    • G20 is the premier forum for international economic cooperation representing around-
    1. 85 per cent of the global GDP,
    2. 75 per cent of the global trade, and
    3. Two-thirds of the world population

    Significance of the G20 logo

    • The logo bears a lotus and the message of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam — One Earth, One Family, One Future’.
    • The lotus flower symbolises our Puranic heritage, our aastha (belief) and boddhikta (intellectualism).

     

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  • India’s role in Russia-Ukraine war

    Ukraine war

    Context

    • As external affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar arrives in Russia this week for a bilateral visit, there is growing international interest in the potential Indian diplomatic contribution to ending the tragic war in Ukraine which is now in the ninth month and has shaken the world to its core.

    The story of Ukraine’s war and India’s Strategy so far

    • India’s balanced approach: India has reasons to be satisfied that there is a better appreciation of its position on Ukraine in the Western public discourse. In the last few months, the Western media and think tanks had been relentless in their criticism of the Indian approach to the crisis as lacking moral and strategic clarity in the face of Russia’s unprovoked aggression.
    • India didn’t criticize Russian nor endorse Russian aggression: Through the last nine months, Delhi was reluctant to explicitly criticize Russian aggression against Ukraine and insisted on a dialogue between the warring parties. At the same time, India refused to endorse Russian aggression, underlined the importance of respecting the United Nations Charter, emphasized the inviolability of territorial sovereignty, warned against the use of nuclear weapons, and sought to draw at tension to the economic impact of the war on the “Global South”.
    • America showed sensitivity to India’s position: In the Biden administration there was a measure of understanding of where Delhi was coming from and India’s long-standing equities in the relationship with Russia and the constraints it imposed on India. Official Washington never let the heat of the Ukraine crisis in Europe undermine the longer-term American imperative of engaging India to stabilize the Indo-Pacific. The same can’t be said about Europe, but then the continent was right in the middle of the gravest conflict since the Second World War. The European trauma from a shattered peace is real.
    • India’s role in grain shipment and nuclear power station: Recent reports in the US media recount the Indian diplomatic contribution at a few critical moments in the nine-month-long war-in helping overcome issues over the grain shipment deal from Ukraine and in reducing the growing risks of the war targeting the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia in eastern Ukraine.

    Ukraine war

    Can India take on a larger diplomatic role?

    • India’s role is limited: Good relations with Moscow and Washington do put South Block in an interesting position. But India is not the only channel of communication between the US and Russia. Nor are Washington and Moscow totally reliant on third parties.

    Efforts to end war by west and Russia

    • Communications between the defence ministers: The defence ministers of the two countries have frequently talked to each other reminding each other of their redlines in the war. Meanwhile, the onset of winter will increasingly limit the possibilities for military operations in Ukraine and would give a chance to both sides to pause, regroup and rethink their strategy and tactics.
    • Putin’s strategy: Putin’s current focus on destroying the Ukrainian cities and the occasional threat to use nuclear weapons underline Russia’s weakness in the Ukraine war rather than strength. From a military perspective, there is no easy way for Russia to secure a “victory” in this war.
    • Limitations of Putin: Putin might have no option but to consider an honorable draw that will save his political face and secure some territorial gains in Ukraine. Can the same be said about the other Vladimir? (The Russians and Ukrainians both claim Vladimir or Volodymyr the Great of the 10th century as the founder of their nations).
    • Ukraine’s strategy: Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has led the country’s fight against Russian aggression with impressive determination. Unlike the Russian troops, the Ukrainian forces are trying to save their nation against aggression and have inflicted significant military defeats on the Russians.
    • Limitations of Ukraine: There is a question, can Zelenskyy succeed in liberating all territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea which Russia took by force in 2014? Zelenskyy might like to fight on until he realizes that goal, but there are second thoughts in the Western coalition that is backing him.
    • Western effort of sanctions on Russia: The West had bet that the massive sanctions it imposed after Moscow launched its war against Ukraine would bring the Russian economy to its knees. But Russia is still standing and the costs of the sanctions are beginning to have major effects on Western societies.
    • Rising energy cost and Ineffectiveness of sanctions: As the economic and energy costs of the war mount, there is growing political support in Europe for a quick resolution of the conflict. In the US, which has emerged as the main supporter of Ukraine, there are both Republicans and Democrats who are questioning the current American “blank cheque” for Ukraine. If the Republicans do well as they are expected to in this week’s midterm elections to the US Congress, the internal polarization could sharpen and cast a shadow over American foreign policy, including the Ukraine strategy.
    • USA is repairing its strategy: Although these developments need not be fatal to US strategy, Washington is beginning to recalibrate. In important private advice to Kyiv last week, Washington called for greater flexibility in Zelenskyy’s approach to negotiations with Putin.

    Ukraine war

    Conclusion

    • Ending the war in Ukraine is very crucial as global economy especially western, facing energy and inflation crisis. India has a limited impact as mediator in ending the war in Ukraine. West and Russia need to realise their futile pursuit of complete victory is hurting them more. Sooner the war ends better for world.

    Mains Question

    Q. What role India can play as mediator in Ukraine war? What are efforts by Russia and Western nations to end the war?

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  • India’s Troubled Neighborhood, Myanmar

    India-myanmar

    Context

    • Twenty-one months after a military coup, which derailed a decade old experiment with limited democracy, Myanmar is struggling to cope with the consequences. People are suffering, authorities and opposition forces are locked in a cycle of violent clashes, the economy is deteriorating, and ASEAN’s mission to produce a solution has failed.

    Background of Present situation in Myanmar

    • Violation of constitution by Military: When the Tatmadaw (military), unhappy with the victory of the Aung San Suu Kyi led National League for Democracy in the November 2020 elections, chose to violate the constitution, it acted in the belief that the people would accept its diktat, as they had done in previous decades.
    • Civilian opposition continues: Clearly, military junta underestimated public anger and their commitment to freedom and democracy. Even after killing over 2,300 people and imprisoning thousands, including Ms. Suu Kyi, the military still faces a rebellion. Its plan to hold an election next year stands jeopardized.
    • Imprisonment of Suu Kyi: Suu Kyi, 77, the most popular leader, has been sentenced to 26 years of imprisonment in multiple cases on apparently trumped-up charges. Besides, 1.1 million Rohingya, driven by military oppression to seek shelter in Bangladesh in 2017, continue to languish there. Dhaka’s efforts to arrange their safe return have failed.
    • Migration crisis in India and Bangladesh: Armed clashes between the military and their ethnic opponents in the border region are having a spill-over effect in Bangladesh. Dhaka continues to show restraint and a preference for diplomacy to manage the situation.

    India-Myanmar

    How is the response of civilian opposition against military?

    • National unity Government: The parallel National Unity Government (NUG) may not be recognized by any state, but it continues to receive political and financial support from abroad. It has effectively channelled popular indignation against military rule, while still being vulnerable due to the paucity of resources and the absence of a visible leader.
    • Support of ethnic groups to NUG: About 20 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), located in the east, north and west of Myanmar’s periphery, have divergent approaches towards the postcoup conflict. Many view it as an intra Bamar contestation, an issue of limited concern to them. Some like the Karens and Kachin’s support the NUG, while others, especially those controlled or supported by China, remain aloof.
    • Strong military but disunity among groups: Those operating in the Chin and Rakhine states are engaged in a fierce armed conflict with the military and have enfeebled it. But overall, due to their divergences and relative weaknesses, the EAOs are unlikely to defeat the military.
    • No nationwide opposition: While the opposition has performed well, it is unable to turn the tide in its favour, without a nationwide front against the Tatmadaw. National reconciliation between the military and civilian forces, and ethnic reconciliation between the majority Bamars and ethnic minorities, have been put on hold.

    India-Myanmar

    UN and International criticism

    • Criticism of coup: The UN has been forthright in criticizing the coup. It has expressed concern over continuing violence, support for a ‘democratic transition’, a release of all political prisoners and dialogue among the parties concerned.
    • Division among international community: However, the UN Secretary General’s special envoy has had little success in promoting peace. The UN’s failure lies in the sharp divisions within the international community on how to deal with this vexed issue.
    • Sanction on military: The western powers have been severely critical of the military. They have put in place several restrictive measures and imposed more sanctions. They have extended support to the NUG.
    • Russian support to military: On the other hand, Russia has given considerable backing to the military regime, seeing in its own isolation an opportunity to strengthen bilateral cooperation in defence and energy supplies.
    • China’s exploiting the opportunity: China is keeping a door open to democratic forces even while doing business with the regime and exploiting every opportunity to ensure progress on the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
    • ASEAN’s divided response: ASEAN is divided in three ways: Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore are prodemocracy; Thailand and Laos are promilitary; and Vietnam and the Philippines are ambivalent. This disunity and the Tatmadaw’s refusal to cooperate with ASEAN have led to the non-implementation of the Five Point Consensus. The upcoming ASEAN summit may provide clues on whether the grouping can forge a united stand and devise something that works better.

    India-Myanmar

    India’s reaction to Myanmar situation

    • Refugee crisis in India: India is concerned as the postcoup conditions have adversely impacted its interests and hampered bilateral cooperation. Mega projects stand delayed. Some 50,000 refugees, as per unofficial estimates, have been camping in Mizoram.
    • Advocating the democracy: Meanwhile, there is an erroneous perception that India has abandoned the Myanmar people. The reality is that India proactively advocates an early restoration of democracy, the release of prisoners, and internal dialogue.
    • Myanmar under the shadow of India-China relations: Can India do more? It can explore the possibility of a combined mediatory role with ASEAN and likeminded neighbors. Will China have a role in such a group? India-China relations preclude that possibility.
    • Brokering the political settlement: Through greater unity, external players can help Myanmar in creating a suitable environment for dialogue on a political settlement. Distant countries such as Norway and Japan can play a helpful role as catalysts. But the principal responsibility to construct a solution must rest with the Myanmar elite and leadership of both camps. Through resilience and pragmatism, they crafted a way out in 2011-21. They must recreate that spirit.

    Conclusion

    • India has been walking on tight rope on balancing national interest and restoration of democracy in Myanmar. Sooner the civil war in Myanmar ends better for India and especially for Mizoram. ‘The Golden Land’, where Lord Buddha is revered, needs to be reinspired by his teachings. Else, a prolonged, contested military rule or a failed state seems a distinct possibility.

    Mains Question

    Q. How situation in Myanmar is affecting the national interest of India? What is the India’s response to the military coup in Myanmar?

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  • Black Sea Grain Initiative

    black sea

    The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative as Russia has agreed to resume its participation.

    Black Sea Grain Initiative

    • The Initiative eased Russia’s naval blockade and saw the reopening of three key Ukrainian ports.
    • The agreement to create the sea corridor was negotiated by representatives from Ukraine, Russia, the UN and Turkey in July this year.
    • The agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis.
    • It provides a safe maritime humanitarian corridor for Ukrainian exports (particularly for food grains) from three of its key ports, namely, Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi in the Black Sea.

    Outcomes of this deal

    • Approximately 9.8 million tonnes of grains have been shipped so far since the deal was brokered.
    • People hoarding the grain in the hope of selling it for a sizable profit owing to the supply crunch were now obligated to sell.
    • The initiative has also been credited for having made a huge difference to the global cost of living crisis.

    What would suspension of the deal mean?

    • In a nutshell, the deal’s suspension was expected to re-introduce the price pressures on grain prices, especially that of wheat, with inventory being at historical lows.
    • It could particularly impact countries in the Middle East and Africa such as Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon, Sudan and Yemen which have benefitted from the resumption and are particularly dependent on Russian and Ukrainian exports

    About Black Sea

    black sea

    • The famed water body is bound by Ukraine to the north and northwest, Russia and Georgia to the east, Turkey to the south, and Bulgaria and Romania to the west.
    • It links to the Sea of Marmara through the Bosphorus and then to the Aegean through the Dardanelles.

    Significance of Black Sea for Russia

    • Domination of the Black Sea region is a geostrategic imperative for Moscow.
    • Black Sea has traditionally been Russia’s warm water gateway to Europe.
    • For Russia, the Black Sea is both a stepping stone to the Mediterranean.
    • It acts as a strategic buffer between NATO and itself.
    • It showcases the Russian power in the Mediterranean and to secure the economic gateway to key markets in southern Europe.
    • Russia has been making efforts to gain complete control over the Black Sea since the Crimean crisis of 2014.

     

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  • Assertive China, Implication for world and India

    China

    Context

    • China’s 20th Party Congress concluded with hardly any surprises, and a predetermined script was implemented without any hitch. Xi Jinping was anointed President for an unprecedented third term, and all six of his acolytes made it to the powerful Politburo Standing Committee.

    Why China’s 20th Party Congress is important?

    • Extension of tenure of Xi Jinping: Xi’s ‘core’ status has been further reinforced, and he is now set to eclipse Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin, placing him next only to Mao. Mr. Xi’s Thought on ‘Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era’ will be the Chinese Communist Party/Communist Party of China (CCP)’s guiding philosophy for the future.
    • Xi’s control over party: It was also evident that Mr. Xi enjoys wide, if not overwhelming, support within the Party elite, enabling him to infuse a renewed sense of purpose alongside tightening of controls over it.
    • High focus on national security: National security would be the key factor dictating all aspects of governance. A common theme that permeated the proceedings was affirmation of the CCP’s historical mission.
    • Emphasized ideological coherence: There was only a single narrative, crafted in a manner that extolled Mr. Xi’s role in revitalization of the CCP, further enhancing his cult status. Unequivocally rejected was an earlier Xi thesis of a ‘Community of Common Destiny’ which has been replaced by the belief that international public opinion was currently anti-China and also included an incitement to overthrow the existing Communist regime. To counter such disruptive philosophies, it had become necessary for the CCP to emphasize ideological coherence and internal discipline.
    • Avoiding the soviet style collapse: This would help to avoid the danger of a ‘Soviet style collapse’ caused by ideological laxity, corruption, divisions within the party and attempts by outsiders to foment unrest.

    China

    What are the problematic declarations at 20th party congress?

    • Undermining the USA: In the realm of geopolitics, the Congress declared that the objective is to effectively reduce the authority and the power of the United States.
    • Rejecting the Indo-pacific: This was especially true of China’s neighborhood, essentially the Indo-Pacific.
    • Achieving the lost glory: Also, to be eschewed by China were the vague and contradictory goals of the past, made at a time when China sought to make rapid progress in several directions.
    • Theory of victimhood of international conspiracy: Implicit in the proceedings was the belief that China was being deliberately denied access, and the ability, to import certain vital technological items, and in this regard, of being a victim of major international conspiracies. Earlier pragmatism was replaced by concerns about western pressures to derail China’s progress.
    • Possible lifelong tenure to Xi: The Party Congress is indicative of the fact that Mr. Xi is much more than a mere party ‘restorer’, and that he adheres to the belief that the CCP’s role is central to Chinese society and critical to determining China’s role in world affairs.
    • Raising the national strength and international influence: In terms of China’s world view, the Party Congress reiterated that the goal is to make China a modern socialist power by 2035, boost per capita income to middle income levels, and modernise the armed forces. By 2049, the 100th anniversary of the Peoples’ Republic of China, China is determined to lead the world in terms of composite national strength and international influence.

    China

    What are the implications for the world?

    • Premature takeover of Taiwan: one can expect that notwithstanding the level of rhetoric and assertions that this is a dangerous phase, China is unlikely to take any premature step to take over Taiwan, and thereby risk a wider conflict with the U.S. and the rest of the world at this point. Mr. Xi is far more likely to devote attention to internal matters within China, since unity within the Communist Party remains ephemeral; while dissent has been stamped out for the present, more consolidation would be necessary.
    • Short term conciliation with world: Consequently, one might well see China stepping back from its present confrontational posture with the U.S. and several other countries, and adopting a more conciliatory approach in the near future.
    • Conflicts are likely to happen: There are, of course, certain red lines any attempt at provocation within the ‘First Island Chain’, or encouraging Taiwan to seek independence or break away from China are certain to lead to a conflict, irrespective of how it would adversely affect China’s 2049 plans and objectives.

    China

    Implications for India

    • Border incursion will rise: In India’s case, further skirmishes between the two countries along the several thousand kilometres of the undefined land border is to be expected.
    • Conflicts in Indian ocean: China is unlikely to embark on an open conflict with it anywhere else in the Indian Ocean region. This could alter, if India were to pursue a more aggressive policy in support of the West’s ‘open seas policy’ in waters in China’s vicinity.
    • Prime target in west vs China battle: India is, however, likely to be a principal target of Chinese wrath in the next few years. As India’s economic fortunes steadily improve even as China’s declines, the perception conflict will become more intense.
    • China’s progress at the cost of India: Moreover, if India is seen as a major recipient of western technology, the kind being denied to China, China would make it a point to use its economic, rather than military muscle, to deter India’s progress. For China to achieve greatness by 2049, subduing India economically, and reducing its image in the eyes of the world would be critically important.

    Conclusion

    • China’s middle kingdom complex, unjustified assertion, paranoic claims on borders and seas and wolf warrior diplomacy is against the international rules and order. China has challenged the USA’s hegemony and entire international system without any tangible punishment. India has to choose its options carefully without compromising national security and ambitions.

  • AIIB set to lend Pakistan $500 million

    The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is scheduled to lend $500 million to Pakistan in this month.

    Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

    • The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a multilateral development bank with a mission to improve social and economic outcomes in Asia, began operations in January 2016.
    • It aims to stimulate growth and improve access to basic services by furthering interconnectivity and economic development in the region through advancements in infrastructure.
    • AIIB has now grown to 102 approved members worldwide.
    • The US & Japan are not its members.
    • It is a brainchild of China. It has invested in 13 member regions.

    Capital and shareholding of AIIB

    • It has authorized capital of US 100 billion dollars and subscribed capital of USD 50 billion.
    • It offers sovereign and non-sovereign finance for projects in various sectors with an interest rate of London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) plus 1.15 % and a repayment period of 25 years with 5 years in grace period.
    • China is the largest shareholder in AIIB with a 26.06% voting power, followed by India with 7.62% and Russia with 5.92% voting power.

    Try this question from CSP 2019

    Q.With reference to Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), consider the following statements

    1. AIIB has more than 80 member nations.
    2. India is the largest shareholder in AIIB.
    3. AIIB does not have any members from outside Asia.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 and 3 only

    (c) 1 and 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

     

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