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Subject: International Relations

  • Why is the Black Sea crucial to Russia?

    The sinking of the huge Russian warship Moskva whether due to a Ukrainian missile strike or, as Russia claims, a fire on board — is a serious setback for Russia in the Black Sea.

    About Black Sea

    • The famed water body is bound by Ukraine to the north and northwest, Russia and Georgia to the east, Turkey to the south, and Bulgaria and Romania to the west.
    • It links to the Sea of Marmara through the Bosphorus and then to the Aegean through the Dardanelles.

    Significance of Black Sea for Russia

    • Domination of the Black Sea region is a geostrategic imperative for Moscow.
    • Black Sea has traditionally been Russia’s warm water gateway to Europe.
    • For Russia, the Black Sea is both a stepping stone to the Mediterranean.
    • It acts as a strategic buffer between NATO and itself.
    • It showcases the Russian power in the Mediterranean and to secure the economic gateway to key markets in southern Europe.
    • The Rhine-Main-Danube canal connects the Black Sea to the Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea and the port of Odessa serves as a vital link between Ukraine and the outside world.

    Black Sea in the Ukraine war

    • Russia has been making efforts to gain complete control over the Black Sea since the Crimean crisis of 2014.
    • During the ongoing invasion, the domination of the Black Sea has been a major Russian objective, along with the land bridge to connect Russia and Crimea.
    • As such, there have been intense efforts to capture Mariupol, the Sea of Azov port in the breakaway eastern Ukrainian oblast of Donetsk.
    • Mariupol appeared close to falling to the Russians.

    Sinking of the Moskva

    • The sinking of the Moskva is believed to be the worst loss in the history of naval warfare.
    • It was sunk by shore-based anti-ship cruise missiles which took advantage of bad weather and used decoy UAV attacks to defeat the ship’s air defence systems.
    • It demonstrates the success of outside-the-box measures adopted by Ukraine in the war.

     

    Must answer this PYQ in the comment box:

    Q.Consider the following pairs:

    Sea Bordering country
    1. Adriatic Sea Albania
    2. Black Sea Croatia
    3. Caspian Sea Kazakhstan
    4. Mediterranean Sea Morocco
    5. Red Sea Syria

    Which of the pair given above are correctly matched? (CSP 2020)

    (a) 1, 2 and 4 only

    (b) 1, 3 and 4 only

    (c) 2 and 5 only

    (d) 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5

     

  • Explained: Red Star over Solomon Islands

    A recent leaked document has revealed that the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific has reached a deal with China. This has raised alarms in Washington and Canberra.

    Where is the Solomon Islands located?

    • The Solomon Islands is a sovereign country consisting of six major islands and over 900 smaller islands in Oceania, to the east of Papua New Guinea and northwest of Vanuatu.
    • Its capital, Honiara, is located on the largest island, Guadalcanal.
    • It is part of the ethnically Melanesian group of islands in the Pacific and lies between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.
    • The country takes its name from the Solomon Islands archipelago, which is a collection of Melanesian islands that also includes the North Solomon Islands (a part of Papua New Guinea).
    • It excludes outlying islands, such as the Santa Cruz Islands and Rennell and Bellona.

    Quick recap of its past

    • The islands, which were initially controlled by the British Empire during the colonial era, went through the hands of Germany and Japan.
    • It then went back to the UK after the Americans took over the islands from the Japanese during World War II.
    • The islands became independent in 1978 to become a constitutional monarchy under the British Crown, with a parliamentary system of government.
    • Nevertheless, its inability to manage domestic ethnic conflicts led to close security relations with Australia, which is the traditional first responder to any crisis in the South Pacific.

    What are the contents of the proposed deal?

    • The Framework Agreement has the potential to disturb the established security mechanisms in the South Pacific region.
    • The document explicitly enables Beijing to send its “police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces” to the islands on the latter government’s request, or if the former sees that the safety of its projects and personnel in the islands are at risk.
    • The document also provides for China’s naval vessels to utilise the islands for logistics support.
    • There have been speculations in the wake of this revelation that China might be building its next overseas naval base in Solomon Islands after Djibouti.

    What is the rationale for the Solomon Islands’ increasing proximity to China?

    • The Solomon Islands had cultivated strong ties with Taiwan, which ended with the emergence of the current government in Honiara.
    • In 2019, the regime change switched Taiwan for China.
    • This was supposedly after Beijing offered half a billion US dollars in financial aid, roughly five times what Taiwan spent on the islands in the past two decades.
    • It has been alleged by the pro-Taiwan Opposition that the incumbent government has been bribed by China.

    Why is China interested in the Solomon Islands?

    • Isolating Taiwan: The Solomon Islands was one among the six Pacific island states which had official bilateral relations with Taiwan.
    • Supporter in UN: The small Pacific island states act as potential vote banks for mobilising support for the great powers in international fora like the United Nations.
    • Larger EEZ: These states have disproportionately large maritime Exclusive Economic Zones when compared to their small sizes.
    • Natural resources: Solomon Islands, in particular, have significant reserves of timber and mineral resources, along with fisheries.
    • Countering US: But more importantly, they are strategically located for China to insert itself between America’s military bases in the Pacific islands and Australia.

    What does this mean for the established geopolitical configuration in the region?

    • Diminishing western influence: The Pacific islands, in the post-World War II scenario, were exclusively under the spheres of influence of the Western powers, in particular the US, UK, France and Australia and New Zealand.
    • Inserting into western hegemony: All of them have territorial possessions in the region, with the three nuclear powers among them having used the region as a nuclear weapons testing ground.
    • Shifting of dependencies: The smaller island nations of the region are heavily dependent on them, especially Australia as it is a resident power.

    Damage control by West

    • Australia has reacted with boosted finances, and by extending its current security mission till 2023 when the islands will host the Pacific Games.
    • The US has responded by considering reopening its embassy in Honiara after a long 29-year gap.
    • New Zealand has shed its typical restraint about China and has criticised it for attempting to militarise the Pacific islands.

    Chinese response to Indo-Pacific

    • It is to be noted that China’s rise in the South Pacific is not without opposition.
    • AUKUS is a recent example of how the established powers are reacting; although, to what extent they can mobilize individual governments against China is questionable.
    • Significant discontent has been brewing within and among the Pacific island states against China’s economic inroads and its adverse impact on their vulnerable economic and political systems.

     

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  • Russia warns against NATO enlargement

    One of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest allies warned NATO that if Sweden and Finland joined the US-led military alliance then Russia would have to bolster its defences in the region, including by deploying nuclear weapons.

    Why in news?

    • Finland, which shares a 1,300-km border with Russia, and Sweden are considering joining the NATO alliance.

    Why do they want to join NATO?

    • The possible accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO to get collective Western security against Russia — would be one of the biggest strategic consequences of the Ukraine war.
    • Finland gained independence from Russia in 1917 and fought two wars against it during Second World War during which it lost some territory to Moscow.
    • Sweden has not fought a war for 200 years and post-war foreign policy has focused on supporting democracy internationally, multilateral dialogue and nuclear disarmament.

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Why was it founded?

    Ans. Communist sweep in Europe post-WWII and rise of Soviet dominance

    • After World War II in 1945, Western Europe was economically exhausted and militarily weak, and newly powerful communist parties had arisen in France and Italy.
    • By contrast, the Soviet Union had emerged from the war with its armies dominating all the states of central and Eastern Europe.
    • By 1948 communists under Moscow’s sponsorship had consolidated their control of the governments of those countries and suppressed all non-communist political activity.
    • What became known as the Iron Curtain, a term popularized by Winston Churchill, had descended over central and Eastern Europe.

    Ideology of NATO

    • NATO ensures that the security of its European member countries is inseparably linked to that of its North American member countries.
    • It commits the Allies to democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law, as well as to the peaceful resolution of disputes.
    • It also provides a unique forum for dialogue and cooperation across the Atlantic.

    What is Article 5 and why is it needed?

    • Article 5 was a key part of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, or Washington Treaty, and was meant to offer a collective defence against a potential invasion of Western Europe.
    • It states: (NATO members) will assist the party or parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
    • However, since then, it has only been invoked once, soon after the 9/11 attack in the United States.

    Why has Article 5 not been invoked this time?

    • The reason is simple: Ukraine is a partner of the Western defence alliance but not a NATO member.
    • As a result, Article 5, or the Collective Defence Pledge, does not apply.
    • While NATO has said it will not be sending troops to Ukraine, it did invoke Article 4, which calls for a consultation of the alliance’s principal decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council.
    • In its history, it has only been activated half a dozen times.
    • But the fact that this time around eight-member nations chose to invoke it was enough to demonstrate the seriousness of the situation at a global level.

    What may prompt NATO to invoke Article 5?

    • NATO will invoke Article 5 only if Russia launches a full-blown attack on one of its allies.
    • Some top US officials have warned of the impact of some of Russia’s cyberattacks being felt in NATO countries.
    • When you launch cyberattacks, they don’t recognize geographic boundaries.
    • Some of that cyberattack could actually start shutting down systems in eastern Poland.

    But what is NATO’s problem with Russia?

    • Russia has long been opposed to Ukraine’s growing closeness with European institutions, particularly NATO.
    • The former Soviet republic shares borders with Russia on one side, and the European Union on the other.
    • After Moscow launched its attack, the US and its allies were quick to respond, imposing sanctions on Russia’s central bank and sovereign wealth funds.

     

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  • Nepal’s dwindling Forex Reserves

    In an unusual development, the Nepali PM sacked the head of its central bank accusing him of leaking sensitive information and for failing to perform his duties.

    What is the news?

    • Nepal’s forex reserves have plummeted by 18.5% to $9.58 billion in March from $11.75 billion in July 2021.
    • The current forex reserves are not enough to pay the government’s import bills beyond the next seven months or so.
    • Nepal’s central bank recently announced a ban on the import of vehicles and other luxury items, citing liquidity crunch and declining foreign exchange reserves.
    • It is rumoured that the Nepali economy will go into a crisis like Sri Lanka.

    Why have Nepal’s forex reserves fallen?

    • Nepal’s forex reserves situation appears healthy as of now as the country, unlike Sri Lanka, is not burdened by external debt.
    • There are, however, concerns that the lower middle-income economy is being battered repeatedly by external factors and that may precipitate a crisis sometime soon.
    • Nepal which is blessed with one of the finest tourism sectors in South Asia, because of the Himalayan mountain range, suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic as global tourist flow fell.
    • This is followed by the global energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    • This has put extraordinary inflationary pressure on the economy.

    How bad is the situation?

    • Nepal’s economy is highly dependent on imports as the country buys a range of merchandise goods apart from fuel.
    • The prevailing weak economic indicators mean that Nepal is spending from its forex reserves faster than it can save.
    • Economists contend that Nepal will soon have double-digit inflation. All economic indicators are declining.
    • The real shortfall in forex reserves is because of the decline in foreign remittances which suffered during the pandemic when the Nepalese workforce abroad suffered job losses.

    Can the energy scene in Nepal escalate economic woes?

    • Nepal’s history shows that any uncertainty regarding fuel can trigger serious internal problems as was visible during the 2015-16 blockade when disruption of fuel supply from India.
    • Nepal’s primary supplier of energy is Indian Oil Corporation (IOC).
    • Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) pays IOC in two installments every month, on the 8th and the 23rd.
    • The NOC has been in crisis for months as high global prices depleted the company’s savings, prompting it to approach the government for a lifeline.
    • The Government of Nepal has agreed to provide NOC the necessary amount to continue supplies from IOC.
    • NOC’s financial status makes it unattractive for banks and as a result the public sector company does not enjoy confidence in the market.

    Paradoxical situation

    • The government is in a paradoxical situation: It has to control imports of products from which it earns the highest amount of tax revenue.
    • Luxury items are the country’s major source of revenue.
    • If revenue shrinks, an economic crisis could be imminent.

    Impact on elections

    • Nepal will hold local level polls next month which will be followed by general elections towards the end of the year.
    • The election process requires considerable financial allocation and Nepal has received support in the past for elections from international donors like the USAID.
    • These donors help in carrying out pre-election staff training and logistics that are part of any democratic process.
    • But there are uncertainties considering the bleak financial situation.
    • It will require at least 10 billion Nepali rupees for the election process and that will mean diversion of a large amount of resources for the democratic process.

    Quick recap: Sri Lankan Crisis

    • Like Nepal, Sri Lanka is a country with a small economy. The Sri Lankan economy is around 1.5 times bigger than Nepal’s.
    • Sri Lanka’s economic crisis was in the making since it suffered a terrorist attack in 2019 which hit its tourism industry, a major contributor to the GDP.
    • Then came the pandemic, which further wiped out tourism incomes. Then there were debt burdens in dollars.
    • The political leadership failed to act to address the looming crisis.
    • The Rajapaksha dynasty made some wrong moves—it cut taxes and started printing money, hugely devaluing the currency.
    • In what looked like a well-intentioned move towards organic farming, the county banned imports of chemical fertilisers. Paddy production failed. The country ran out of money to pay its bills.

    Is Nepal really going the way of Sri Lanka?

    • In Nepal, the situation is not as bleak.
    • Nepal’s current forex reserves are enough to pay for imports of goods and services for about seven and a half months.
    • Tourism, one of the major foreign currency earners, was hit hard by the pandemic, but its gradual revival has given a glimmer of hope.
    • Since Nepal’s currency is pegged to the Indian rupee, a massive devaluation shock is unlikely. Tourism is also rebounding, giving a fillip to foreign currency reserves.

    Back2Basics: Foreign Exchange Reserves

    • Foreign exchange reserves are important assets held by the central bank in foreign currencies as reserves.
    • They are commonly used to support the exchange rate and set monetary policy.
    • In India’s case, foreign reserves include Gold, Dollars, and the IMF’s quota for Special Drawing Rights.
    • Most of the reserves are usually held in US dollars, given the currency’s importance in the international financial and trading system.
    • Some central banks keep reserves in Euros, British pounds, Japanese yen, or Chinese yuan, in addition to their US dollar reserves.

     

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  • What is the ‘2+2’ format of dialogue between India and the US?

    The fourth ‘2+2’ dialogue between India and the United States is underway in Washington DC.

    2+2 talks between India and allies

    • The 2+2 dialogue is a format of meeting of the foreign and defence ministers of India and its allies on strategic and security issues.
    • A 2+2 ministerial dialogue enables the partners to better understand and appreciate each other’s strategic concerns and sensitivities taking into account political factors on both sides.
    • This helps to build a stronger, more integrated strategic relationship in a rapidly changing global environment.
    • India has 2+2 dialogues with four key strategic partners: US, Australia, Japan, and RUSSIA.

    Inception of the idea

    • The inaugural 2+2 dialogue with Australia was held in September 2021 when Jaishankar and Singh met with their counterparts Marise Payne and Peter Dutton in New Delhi.
    • India held its first 2+2 dialogue with Russia in December last year, when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited India.
    • The first India-Japan talks in the 2+2 format were held on November 30, 2019 in New Delhi.

    Dialogue with the US

    • The US is India’s oldest and most important 2+2 talks partner.
    • The first 2+2 dialogue between the two countries was held during the Trump Administration.
    • It hosted then-Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and then-Secretary of Defence James Mattis and the late Sushma Swaraj and then Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in New Delhi in September 2018.
    • The second and third editions of the 2+2 dialogues were held in Washington DC and New Delhi in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

    Defence and strategic agreements

    • Over the years, the strategic bilateral relationship with its partners, including the dialogues held in the 2+2 format, have produced tangible and far-reaching results for India.
    • India and the US have signed a troika of “foundational pacts” for deep military cooperation, beginning with the:
    1. Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016
    2. Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) after the first 2+2 dialogue in 2018, and
    3. Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in 2020

    Deterrents in ties ahead of the meet

    • There is little doubt as to how beneficial this mechanism has been.
    • On one side, the ‘two plus dialogue’ is expected to abate, if not resolve, highly problematic issues such as Chinese aggression.
    • Even though there is a tonne of expectations from this mutual dialogue between the two countries, the dialogue is also the source of some worry.
    • This time, the US is sceptical of India’s mammoth oil import from Russia.
    • Another problematic pointer is India’s voluminous weaponry sanctions from Russia.

    Why a 2+2 with Russia?

    • Russia is one of those countries with which a 2+2 format talk “fits perfectly” in India’s foreign policy.
    • India and Russia have shared a strategic relationship since October 2000, which later got upgraded to ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’ in December 2010.
    • To be sure, the India-Russia 2+2 does have a particularly strong signalling component when seen against the backdrop of the S400 controversy.
    • Holding the 2+2 talks with Russia is much needed. This gives out a strong message to the world that India sees everyone to be on the same level.
    • This is visible messaging that India cannot be compelled to choose partners. India pursues an independent foreign policy serving its national and non-allied interests.
    • Having a 2+2 with Russia also means that India is “not in anyone’s camp” and that bilateral ties between Moscow and New Delhi are “traditional and comprehensive”.

    Way forward

    • India and the US don’t set ‘red lines’ and are pushing for “an honest dialogue”, the ongoing 2+2 dialogue is an opportunity for both India and the US.
    • The US also understands that India is one of the few countries that could leverage its relationship with Russia to bring the two warring parties to the negotiating table through a ceasefire and diplomatic resolution.
    • For Delhi, it is a season for careful and adroit diplomacy.

     

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  • The wider impact of Pakistan’s internal crisis

    Context

    As Pakistan goes through a major political convulsion, India must resist the temptation to see the changes across our western frontiers through the narrow prism of bilateral relations.

    Why Pakistan matters

    • Pakistan is an important regional piece in the power play between the US, China and Russia.
    • Given its location at the crossroads of the Subcontinent, Middle East, Eurasia, and China, Pakistan has always been a vital piece of real estate that was actively sought by contending geopolitical blocs.
    • The internal and external have always been tightly linked in Pakistan.
    • Today, Pakistan’s internal battles are tied to external geopolitical rivalry.

    Two important factors in the political trajectory of Pakistan

    • Any Indian strategy in dealing with the new government in Islamabad would depend on an assessment of Pakistan’s post-Imran political trajectory.
    • Two important factors stand out.
    • 1] First is the changing nature of civil military relations in Pakistan.
    • It is part of a serious intra-elite struggle that transcends the well-known military dominance over Pakistan’s polity.
    • One of the more interesting questions to come out of the current episode is whether the army’s famed internal coherence and unity of command might endure the crisis.
    • 2] Second is the growing fragility of Pakistan’s polity triggered by the deepening economic crisis and sharpening social contradictions.
    • There is no guarantee that the army’s ties with new civilian rulers will be smooth nor can we assume that the civilian coalition against Imran Khan will survive the many challenges ahead as it confronts difficult policy challenges on multiple fronts.

    Geopolitical challenges of Pakistan

    • Engaging India is unlikely to be a high priority for the new government in Islamabad.
    • Today, Pakistan has many other things to worry about — reviving its flagging economic fortunes, stabilising the Durand Line with Afghanistan, and rebalancing its ties with the major actors in the Middle East, including Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
    • Pakistan, which traditionally enjoyed good relations with the West as well as China, is finding it hard to maintain a balance in its great power relations.
    • While the army and the new government are eager to restore ties with the US, Imran Khan has made it hard for them.
    • Imran Khan’s repeated praise for India’s independent foreign policy was in essence a critique of the Pakistan army that has long steered Islamabad’s international relations.

    Way forward

    •  Delhi should focus on the potential shifts in Pakistan’s strategic orientation triggered by the current crisis.
    • The good news from Pakistan is that India is not part of the argument between the political classes or between Imran Khan and the “deep state” represented by the army.

    Conclusion

    An India that gets an accurate sense of Pakistan’s changing geopolitics will be able to better deal with Islamabad.

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  • Amending the Weapons of Mass Destruction Act

    Recently the Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and their Delivery Systems (Prohibition of Unlawful Activities) Amendment Bill, 2022 was passed in the Lok Sabha.

    What is the WMD Bill?

    • The Bill amends the WMD and their Delivery Systems (Prohibition of Unlawful Activities) Act, 2005 which prohibits the unlawful manufacture, transport, or transfer of WMD (chemical, biological and nuclear weapons) and their means of delivery.
    • It is popularly referred to as the WMD Act.
    • The recent amendment extends the scope of banned activities to include financing of already prohibited activities.
    • The WMD and their Delivery Systems (Prohibition of Unlawful Activities) Act came into being in July 2005.

    What was the purpose of the original WMD Act?

    • Its primary objective was to provide an integrated and overarching legislation on prohibiting unlawful activities in relation to all three types of WMD, their delivery systems and related materials, equipment and technologies.
    • It instituted penalties for contravention of these provisions such as imprisonment for a term not less than five years (extendable for life) as well as fines.
    • The Act was passed to meet an international obligation enforced by the UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540 of 2004.

    What is the UNSCR 1540?

    • In April 2004 the UN Security Council adopted resolution 1540 to address the growing threat of non-state actors gaining access to WMD material, equipment or technology to undertake acts of terrorism.
    • In order to address this challenge to international peace and security, UNSCR 1540 established binding obligations on all UN member states under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
    • Nations were mandated to take and enforce effective measures against proliferation of WMD, their means of delivery and related materials to non-state actors.
    • It was to punish the unlawful and unauthorised manufacture, acquisition, possession, development and transport of WMD became necessary.

    UNSCR 1540 enforced three primary obligations upon nation states —

    1. To not provide any form of support to non-state actors seeking to acquire WMD, related materials, or their means of delivery;
    2. To adopt and enforce laws criminalising the possession and acquisition of such items by non-state actors;
    3. To adopt and enforce domestic controls over relevant materials, in order to prevent their proliferation.

    What has the Amendment added to the existing Act?

    • The Amendment expands the scope to include prohibition of financing of any activity related to WMD and their delivery systems.
    • To prevent such financing, the Central government shall have the power to freeze, seize or attach funds, financial assets, or economic resources of suspected individuals (whether owned, held, or controlled directly or indirectly).
    • It also prohibits persons from making finances or related services available for other persons indulging in such activity.

    Why was this Amendment necessary?

    • India echoes these developments for having made the Amendment necessary.
    • Two specific gaps are being addressed-
    1. As the relevant organisations at the international level, such as the Financial Action Task Force have expanded the scope of targeted financial sanctions and India’s own legislation has been harmonised to align with international benchmarks.
    2. With advancements in technologies, new kinds of threats have emerged that were not sufficiently catered for in the existing legislation.
    • These notably include developments in the field of drones or unauthorised work in biomedical labs that could maliciously be used for terrorist activity.
    • Therefore, the Amendment keeps pace with evolving threats.

    What more should India do?

    • India’s responsible behaviour and actions on non-proliferation are well recognised.
    • It has a strong statutory national export control system and is committed to preventing proliferation of WMD.
    • This includes transit and trans-shipment controls, retransfer control, technology transfer controls, brokering controls and end-use based controls.
    • Every time India takes additional steps to fulfil new obligations, it must showcase its legislative, regulatory and enforcement frameworks to the international community.
    • It is also necessary that India keeps WMD security in international focus.

    Setting up a precedence

    • There is no room for complacency.
    • Even countries which do not have WMD technology have to be sensitised to their role in the control framework to prevent weak links in the global control system.
    • India can offer help to other countries on developing national legislation, institutions and regulatory framework through the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) or on bilateral basis.

    Could the Amendment become troublesome to people on account of mistaken identity?

    • In the discussion on the Bill in Parliament, some members expressed concern on whether the new legislation could make existing business entities or people in the specific sector susceptible to a case of mistaken identity.
    • The External Affairs Minister, however, assured the House that such chances were minimal since identification of concerned individuals/entities would be based on a long list of specifics.

    What is the international significance of these legislation?

    • Preventing acts of terrorism that involve WMD or their delivery systems requires building a network of national and international measures in which all nation states are equally invested.
    • Such actions are necessary to strengthen global enforcement of standards relating to the export of sensitive items and to prohibit even the financing of such activities.

    Way forward

    • Sharing of best practices on legislations and their implementation can enable harmonization of global WMD controls.
    • India initially had reservations on enacting laws mandated by the UNSCR.
    • This is not seen by India as an appropriate body for making such a demand.
    • However, given the danger of WMD terrorism that India faces in view of the difficult neighbourhood that it inhabits, the country supported the Resolution and has fulfilled its requirements.

    Conclusion

    • It is in India’s interest to facilitate highest controls at the international level and adopt them at the domestic level.
    • Having now updated its own legislation, India can demand the same of others, especially from those in its neighbourhood that have a history of proliferation and of supporting terrorist organisations.

     

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  • BRICS and the creation of a multipolar world

    Context

    The current crisis in Ukraine will consolidate BRICS as the group will make further efforts to become a real alternative to the West to create a real multipolar world.

     BRICS’ efforts to change world economic system

    • The group was brought together by geopolitical rather than economic considerations and this can be seen in the strategic interests shared by Russia and China.
    • Inclusion of non-Western states in international financial institutions: BRICS is actively involved in the efforts to change the world economic system by increasing the number of non-Western states in international financial institutes.
    • The BRICS countries decided to create the $100 billion BRICS Development Bank and a reserve currency pool worth over another $100 billion to offer an alternative to countries in the non-Western world when it comes to choosing the sources of funding for development or coping with serious economic crises.

    Consequences of Ukraine crisis for BRICS

    •  It demonstrates that the West has not abandoned the idea of a unipolar world and will continue building it up by drawing into its foreign policy orbit issues it calls “international” or even “common to mankind.”
    • Many non-Western states look at this as a new wave of colonialism.
    • This will increase the desire of non-Western countries to enhance their coordination and perhaps the current conflict is already showing signs in this respect.
    • The BRICS states are different in many respects and their disagreements with the West are rooted in different historical and political circumstances.
    • The current crisis in Ukraine will consolidate BRICS as the group will make further efforts to become a real alternative to the West to create a real multipolar world.
    • RIC controls 22 per cent of the global GDP and 16 per cent of global exports of goods and services.
    • The fallout from Russia’s alienation from the G-8 group of nations, raises the prospect that — tactically at least — Russia, India, and China might be playing their own triangular integrationist card within BRICS at Moscow’s initiative.
    • Eurasian integrationist core: This will create a north Eurasian integrationist core within BRICS, whichever way Moscow’s relations with the US and Europe play out.

    Implications for India

    • Both the Asian giants — India and China — may stand to reap the “best of both worlds” as the Ukraine imbroglio plays out.
    • Investment: This could mean greater industrial and energy cross investments between Russia and India as well as between Russia and China.
    • Additionally, the proposed arrangement for rupee-ruble cross currency pairing could result in settlement of payments in non-dollar currencies with more countries looking at India’s sovereign Financial Messaging Systems (SFMS), while also remaining connected with a central system like SWIFT.
    • Dedicated payment mechanism: This should also anchor India’s quest to build a dedicated payment mechanism for energy-related payments and settlements as a long-haul measure.
    • This could change the contours of the global payments landscape and benefit the rupee immensely.

    Spotlight on India

    • As the war progresses, New Delhi has been receiving a stream of high-profile visitors from around the world.
    • This has included delegations from the US, Australia and Japan, India’s partners in the Quad.
    • The foreign minister of Greece has also been to India and the Israeli prime minister is scheduled to visit soon.
    • Even traditional rival China is making overtures to India at this time, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit.
    • Another suitor is Russia, which is now also becoming a supplier of discounted crude oil to India as Moscow recoils from sanctions enforced by western consumers of its natural gas.

    Conclusion

    New Delhi is basking in its well-deserved spotlight with well-crafted diplomacy. India could be looking at a new dawn.

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  • What caused Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis?

    Context

    Sri Lanka’s ruling Rajapaksa family is facing mounting public anger, calls for resignations and political defections amidst the island’s worst economic crisis in its post-independence history.

    Reasons for the crisis

    • 1] Overnight switch to organic farming and import ban on fertiliser: There was the decision to ban fertiliser imports and switch overnight to organic farming.
    • The decision was reversed after sustained farmer protests but not before damage had already been done to crop yields.
    • 2] Then, precious foreign exchange was wasted in propping up the rupee while imposing controls on key imports that led to shortages and price rise.
    • 3] For several months, as the crisis deepened with rolling power-cuts and shortages of essentials, the government refused to seek IMF assistance.
    • It has now relented on the IMF, but Sri Lanka’s economic distress has been prolonged and deepened by this indecision.

    Contradictions in the Sri Lanka’s politics

    • While the immediate causes of popular anger are explicable, the crisis also reveals a more enduring contradiction at the foundation of Sri Lanka’s politics.
    • Sinhala nationalist-inspired policies: What this crisis shows is that Sinhala nationalist-inspired policies are no longer financially or politically viable.
    • Hardline approach toward Tamils: The Rajapaksas first rode to power in September 2005 on the wave of Sinhala nationalist antipathy against the then-ongoing Norwegian-mediated peace process with the LTTE.
    • Upon his election as president, Mahinda expanded the military and launched a full-frontal military offensive that ended with the LTTE’s total defeat and destruction in May 2009.
    • After the war, instead of seeking a political settlement with the Tamils, Mahinda Rajapaksa unrolled a de-facto militarised siege of the Tamil-speaking areas and population.
    • Assertive foreign policy: The hardline approach to the Tamils and their demands was also linked to a new, more assertive foreign policy.
    •  The government turned away the long-established pattern of alignments with Western states and India.
    • Mistrust of India: There is a long-standing mistrust of India amongst Sinhala Buddhist nationalists who see it as the source of historic Tamil invasions.
    •  The Rajapaksas translated this sentiment into policy, pushing back against Indian attempts to forge closer economic ties and a constitutional settlement of the Tamil question.
    • Ties with China: In place of these ties, the Rajapaksas ostentatiously set out to forge new alliances, principally with China.
    • The Rajapaksas also bet on a new geo-political optimism.
    • They believed that with China’s rise, Sri Lanka’s location on east-west trade lanes would become a prized asset.
    • They were confident that in the global competition for power triggered by China’s rise, international actors would be compelled to seek Sri Lanka’s favour for fear of “losing” it to the other side.
    • With this geo-political calculus in mind, they assuredly rebuffed Western and Indian demands.
    • None of the great powers who were supposed to be competing for Sri Lanka’s favour have stepped up to offer a bailout, although the sums are quite small by global standards.
    • The bid for total sovereign autonomy has crash-landed and yet the alternatives are also politically difficult.

    More leverage to international actors

    • The irony of Sri Lanka’s push for total sovereign autonomy is that it has given international actors more leverage than they had before.
    • Going to the IMF will require concessions on human rights and good governance to secure preferential access to European markets.
    • At the same time, Indian bilateral assistance has conditionalities on clearing controversial investments.

    Way forward

    • Push non-reversible changes: International actors who really want to help Sri Lanka should use this leverage to push for tangible and non-reversible changes in the treatment of Tamils and Muslims whatever leadership emerges in Colombo.
    • Eemilitarisation and normalisation of relations with the Tamils and Muslims: The crisis can serve as a reality check for the Sinhala nationalist leadership and electorate. The model of economic and political governance they have pursued is unsustainable, and the alternatives must be faced.
    • The most pressing of these is the demilitarisation and normalisation of relations with the Tamils and Muslims.
    • Sinhala political attention can perhaps then be turned to the other pressing failures of governance that have brought Sri Lanka to this state.

    Conclusion

    The Rajapaksas may be the principal protagonists of this crisis but the underlying script they have followed is a Sinhala Buddhist one and until Sri Lanka finds a new script it cannot find peace or stability.

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  • Fulfilling the potential of the Bay of Bengal community

    Context

    The celebrations to mark the 25th year of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) have been accompanied by the announcement of several new initiatives.

    Important outcome of BIMSTEC Summit

    The summit had several important outcomes: Expanding the grouping’s agenda, deepening cooperation between the member countries and planning systematically for consistency and coherence.

    1] Finalisation of charter

    • The Bay of Bengal Community was launched in 1997. But its charter, finalised last week, was more than two decades in the making.
    • The 20-page document adopted at the fifth BIMSTEC Summit articulates the purpose, principles and legal standing of the organisation.
    • It also delineates the process to admit new members – this requires the consensus of the members.
    •  The emphasis on consensus is important, given the sensitivities of the member countries.
    • One important provision in the charter is to keep regular meetings on track and provide enough scope to the BIMSTEC Permanent Working Committee to keep the process energised.

    2] Development on connectivity issues

    • Amongst the important decisions is the one related to the BIMSTEC Master Plan for Transport Connectivity.
    • The region requires seamless connectivity through multi-modal channels that improve links within and amongst the member countries.
    • These channels should be in sync with the regulatory frameworks of the member countries.
    • There are proposals to extend the trilateral highway project between Thailand, Myanmar and India to Laos and Cambodia. Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal have also evinced interest in the project.
    • Digitisation has enhanced cooperation in customs regulations and facilitated and improved cargo clearance procedures. All this will surely enhance investment linkages and improve regional trade.

    3] A systemic approach to streamline the evolution of BIMSTEC.

    • Establishing an Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG) for formulating a vision document for the region will help in articulating the aspirations of the collective.
    • EPGs have been quite useful in the EU and ASEAN.
    • For instance, the ASEAN-India Eminent Persons Group (AIEPG) was constituted in 2005 after the Eighth ASEAN-India Summit.
    • Its recommendations still guide the grouping’s work.
    • In 2011, the EU constituted an EPG  to suggest a roadmap to address the challenges arising from the resurgence of intolerance and discrimination in Europe.

    4] MoU for legal assistance and mutual cooperation

    • The MoU for legal assistance in criminal matters and additional MoUs for mutual cooperation between diplomatic academics and training institutes would help in creating an ecosystem of deeper knowledge-related cooperation.
    • The technology transfer facility proposed in Colombo is likely to augment these efforts.

    India’s leading role

    • India has promised $1 million to set up a Secretariat in Dhaka.
    • India has identified several other areas where it will support the collective.
    • Delhi will provide a $3 million grant to the BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate, promote collaboration between industries and start-ups, and launch programmes that will help in the adoption of international standards and norms.
    • Agricultural trade analysis: Delhi has also suggested a regional value chain based agricultural trade analysis – this will be conducted by the RIS.
    • The Asian Development Bank and the New Delhi-based ICRIER have stewarded awareness programmes on trade facilitating measures in the member countries.
    • Support to Sri Lanka and Nepal: The pandemic has created fresh challenges and aggravated old ones in the countries of the region, particularly Sri Lanka and Nepal.
    • India’s support to these countries, especially in financial matters, could help in reducing undesirable external intervention in the region.

    Way forward

    • Need for FTA: The early completion of the regional free trade agreement could provide a fillip to the organisation’s efforts.
    • Promote research on cultural and civilisation linkages: Besides economic links, the Bay of Bengal countries share a cultural and civilisational legacy.
    • The role of institutions like Nalanda University in promoting research on cultural and civilisational linkages and improving the adoption of sustainable practices would be equally significant.

    Conclusion

    The collective’s fifth summit that concluded in Colombo showcased member nations’ resolve to facilitate connectivity and security and enhance the prosperity of the region.

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