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Subject: International Relations

  • What is ‘Most Favoured Nation’ Status?

    The United States, the European Union, Britain, Canada and Japan are to move jointly to revoke Russia’s “most favoured nation” (MFN) status over its invasion of Ukraine.

    What is MFN status?

    • The World Trade Organization’s 164 members commit to treating other members equally so they can all benefit from each other’s lowest tariffs, highest import quotas and fewest trade barriers.
    • This principle of non-discrimination is known as most favoured nation (MFN) treatment.
    • There are some exceptions, such as when members strike bilateral trade agreements or when members offer developing countries special access to their markets.
    • For countries outside the WTO, such as Iran, North Korea, Syria or Russian ally Belarus, WTO members can impose whatever trade measures they wish without flouting global trading rules.

    Removal of MFN status

    • There is no formal procedure for suspending MFN treatment and it is not clear whether members are obliged to inform the WTO if they do so.
    • India suspended Pakistan’s MFN status in 2019 after a suicide attack by a Pakistan-sponsored group.
    • Pakistan never applied MFN status to India.

    What does losing MFN status mean?

    • Revoking Russia’s MFN status sends a strong signal that the US and its Western allies do not consider Russia a economic partner in any way, but it does not in itself change conditions for trade.
    • It does formally allow the Western allies to increase import tariffs or impose quotas on Russian goods, or even ban them, and to restrict services out of the country.
    • They could also overlook Russian intellectual property rights.
    • Ahead of MFN status removal, the United States had already announced a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas.

     

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  • Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC)

    India has emphasized on following the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) at the UNSC meeting on Ukraine.

    Why in news?

    • The meeting came after a request from Russia, who claimed that the US is involved in bioweapon manufacture in war-torn Ukraine.
    • However, Washington has strongly dismissed this claim.

    What is BTWC?

    • The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) was the first multilateral treaty categorically banning a class of weapon.
    • It is a treaty that came into force in 1975 and prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological weapons.
    • A total of 183 countries are party to the treaty that outlaws bioweapons, including US, Russia and Ukraine.

    Obligations of the treaty

    • The treaty prohibits the development, stockpile, production, or transfer of biological agents and toxins of “types and quantities” that have no justification for protective or peaceful use.
    • Furthermore, the treaty bans the development of weapons, equipment, or delivery systems to disseminate such agents or toxins.
    • Should a state possess any agent, toxin, or delivery system for them, they have nine months from entry into force of the treaty to destroy their stockpiles, or divert them for peaceful use.
    • The convention stipulates that states shall cooperate bilaterally or multilaterally to solve compliance issues.
    • States may also submit complaints to the UNSCR should they believe another state is violating the treaty.

    Issues with the treaty

    • There is no implementation body of the BTWC, allowing for blatant violations as seen in the past.
    • There is only a review conference that too every five years to review the convention’s implementation, and establish confidence-building measures.

    Signatories to the BTWC

    • The Convention currently has 183 states-parties, including Palestine, and four signatories (Egypt, Haiti, Somalia, and Syria).
    • Ten states have neither signed nor ratified the BWC: Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Israel, Kiribati, Micronesia, Namibia, South Sudan, and Tuvalu.

     

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  • Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA) of the BBIN

    With Bhutan continuing to sit out the Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA) of the sub-regional Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) grouping, a meeting of the other three countries was held to discuss the next steps in operationalizing the agreement for the free flow of goods and people between them.

    What is Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA)?

    • India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh signed a Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA) for the Regulation of Passenger, Personal and Cargo Vehicular Traffic among the four South Asian neighbours.
    • It was signed on 15 June 2015 at the BBIN transport ministers meeting in Thimpu, Bhutan.
    • The act will facilitate a way for a seamless movement of people and goods across their borders for the benefit and integration of the region and its economic development.

    Key terms of the Agreement

    • Trans-shipment of goods: Cargo vehicles will be able to enter any of the four nations without the need for trans-shipment of goods from one country’s truck to another’s at the border.
    • Free transport: The agreement would permit the member states to ply their vehicles in each other’s territory for transportation of cargo and passengers, including third-country transport and personal vehicles.
    • Electronic permit: As per the agreement each vehicle would require an electronic permit to enter another country’s territory, and border security arrangements between nations’ borders will also remain.
    • Ultra-security: Vehicles are fitted with an electronic seal that alerts regulators every time the container door is opened.

    Implementation status of the agreement

    • The agreement will enter into force after it is ratified by all four member nations.
    • The agreement has been ratified by Bangladesh, India and Nepal.
    • The lower house of the Bhutanese parliament approved the agreement in early 2016, but it was rejected by the upper house in November 2016.
    • Bhutan has requested for a cap to be fixed on the number of vehicles entering its territory

    What next?

    • India remains “hopeful” that Bhutan could change its position on the project, it was decided at a meeting in November 2021 to go ahead for now, given that there are no new signals from Thimphu on the project.
    • Progress on the seven-year-old project has been slow, despite several trial runs being held along the Bangladesh-India-Nepal road route for passenger buses and cargo trucks.
    • There are still some agreements holding up the final protocols.

    Back2Basics: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN)

    • BBIN Initiative is a sub-regional architecture of countries in Eastern South Asia, a sub-region of South Asia.
    • The group meets through the official representation of member states to formulate, implement and review quadrilateral agreements across areas such as water resources management, connectivity of power, transport, and infrastructure.

     

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  • What is the Temporary Protection Directive of the EU?

    Responding to the crisis, EU Member States made the unprecedented decision to activate a major European Union’s Council Directive, known as the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD).

    What is Temporary Protection?

    • The EU Commission describes “temporary protection” under the TPD as an “exceptional measure to provide immediate and temporary protection to displaced persons from non-EU countries and those unable to return to their country of origin”.
    • The directive applies when there is a risk that the standard asylum system is struggling to cope with demand stemming from a mass influx risking a negative impact on the processing of claims.

    Objectives of this protection

    1. To both establish minimum standards for giving temporary protection to displaced persons
    2. To promote a balance of effort between Member States in receiving and bearing the consequences of receiving such persons

    Why establish standards?

    The Commission gives two reasons for doing so:

    • It reduces disparities between the policies of EU States on the reception and treatment of displaced persons in a situation of mass influx.
    • It promotes solidarity and burden-sharing among EU States with respect to receiving large numbers of potential refugees at one time.”

    What obligations does the TPD place upon EU states?

    According to the European Commission, the TPD “foresees harmonised rights for the beneficiaries of temporary protection”, which include:

    • Residence permit for the duration of the protection (which can last from 1-3 years),
    • Appropriate information on temporary protection,
    • Access to employment,
    • Access to accommodation or housing,
    • Access to social welfare or means of subsistence,
    • Access to medical treatment,
    • Access to education for minors,
    • Opportunities for families to reunite in certain circumstances, and
    • Guarantees for access to the normal asylum procedure

    The TPD also contains provisions for the return of displaced persons to their country of origin, unless they have committed serious crimes or they “pose a threat to security from the benefit of temporary protection”.

     

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  • How invasion of Ukraine could transform nuclear landscape of Asia

    Context

    Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling in Ukraine, has triggered a far more consequential debate on the importance of atomic weapons in deterring Chinese expansionism.

    Background

    • Ukraine agreed in 1994 to give up the nuclear weapons that it inherited from the Soviet Union in return for guarantees on Kyiv’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
    • Clearly, those legal guarantees were no substitute for nuclear weapons.

    Changing stand on nuclear weapons

    • Debate in Japan: In an important statement last week, the former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, called for a national debate on hosting American nuclear weapons on Japanese soil.
    • One element of the debate is the fact that nuclear weapons remain the greatest deterrent, especially against a vastly superior adversary.
    • Korea strengthening nuclear deterrence: In South Korea, which is electing its president this week, front-runner Yoon Suk-yeol has talked of strengthening Seoul’s nuclear deterrence against both Pyongyang and Beijing.
    • Taiwan and Australia developing nuclear submarine: Taiwan, is reportedly developing a nuclear-powered submarine that could offer some deterrence against a Chinese invading force.
    • Australia, which is working with the UK and the US to build nuclear-powered submarines, is accelerating the project after the Ukraine invasion.

    Threat of escalation to nuclear war

    • The threat of escalation to the nuclear level was very much in the mind of NATO’s military planners when the alliance refused to be drawn into a firefight with Russia in Ukraine.
    • Moscow is also conscious of the fact that there are two nuclear weapon powers in Europe — Britain and France.
    • Nuclear sharing arrangement: Russia is also aware of the “nuclear sharing” arrangements between the US and some European allies — Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.
    • Under this framework, European allies host US nuclear weapons on their soil and authorise their armed forces to deliver American nuclear weapons on Russia.
    • Nuclear sharing also involves continuous consultations on nuclear doctrine and the planning of nuclear operations.
    • The US and its allies are also pursuing a “hybrid war” that boosts Ukrainian resistance against Russian armed forces and raises military, economic, and political costs of Moscow’s aggression.

    Threat of China invading Taiwan

    • Taiwan is far more important for Asian (and global) security than Ukraine is for Europe.
    • Taiwan sits at the heart of the Western Pacific and straddles the sea line of communication in the world’s most dynamic economic arena.
    • It is the main source of silicon chips for the world.
    • When China conquers Taiwan it will dramatically transform the geopolitics of Asia.
    • As Putin becomes more dependent on China, Russia is bound to back Xi Jinping’s ambitions in Asia.
    • This is the context in which China’s eastern neighbours are taking a fresh look at the nuclear option.
    • Nuclear sharing arrangement: On the nuclear front, the debate in Japan and South Korea is about potential nuclear sharing arrangements with the US.
    • In Taiwan and Australia, the emphasis is on developing nuclear-powered submarines.
    • Deployment of strategic weapons: The US too is debating the deployment of new strategic weapon systems in Asia that might encourage China to pause before trying to emulate Russia’s Ukraine adventure.

    Consider the question ” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is going to transform the nuclear landscape of Asia. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    One way or another, Russia’s war in Ukraine is bound to transform the Asian nuclear landscape.

  • Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Global Implications

  • Do Economic Sanctions work as a deterrent?

    The economic sanctions imposed by the US, UK, and the EU on Russia for going to war against Ukraine could prove to be detrimental to the country.

    What do economic sanctions mean?

    • Economic sanctions are penalties or bans that are levied against a country to push it to modify its strategic decisions.
    • They include withdrawal of customary trade and financial relations for security and foreign policy purposes.
    • Sanctions could result in cutting economic ties in every respect such as terms of trade, financial assistance, transit support, travel bans, asset freezes, and trade restrictions.
    • The curbs could also be targeted, thus restricting transactions with certain businesses, groups, or individuals.
    • Amid increased global and economic interdependence, they could prove to be detrimental for the targeted country.

    How do sanctions impact an economy?

    • No country can afford to be a closed economy.
    • The affected country’s supply chain gets disrupted in terms of the inflow of goods and services and for reaching out to the export markets.
    • In the former, there is a risk of the internal economy being crippled, especially if it depends on imports of critical raw materials.
    • The domestic economy could also be deprived of external market support.
    • The risk element is high especially in case of economic curbs being imposed collectively, such as by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

    What are the economic sanctions against Russia?

    • Major Russian banks have been banned from the SWIFT financial messaging service and their assets have been frozen.
    • Sanctions have been levied on the Russian Direct Investment Fund and against some of Russia’s wealthiest people.
    • Access to air-space has been denied and export controls introduced.
    • The countries imposing curbs on Russia account for 34% of world GDP.

    What is the cost of such restrictions?

    • This depends on the economic strength of the country being targeted.
    • Russia cannot be brushed aside as an ordinary economy.
    • The country is important to the global economy because of its oil reserves and access to nuclear power.
    • Russia is also a supplier of sophisticated defence products and is an important supplier of crucial defence products to India.
    • Given the long-term strategic nature of the relationship, India is abstaining from voting on resolutions to condemn Russia.

    How did India manage curbs after Pokhran-II?

    • India’s dependence on external assistance was more than $100 billion.
    • The government appealed to non-resident Indians (NRIs) whose annual savings were more than $400 billion.
    • NRIs’ subscription to government bonds was more than double the annual foreign assistance.
    • India could also showcase its scientific strength as none of the scientists involved were trained abroad.
    • This helped India display confidence, especially to investors.

     

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  • The complexities for implementing a No-Fly Zone

    The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General stated that the organisation would not designate the Ukrainian airspace as a ‘No Fly Zone’ which he said would lead to a full-fledged war in Europe, involving many more countries and resulting in greater human suffering.

    What is a No-Fly Zone ?

    • In simple terms, a No-Fly Zone refers to a particular airspace wherein aircraft, excluding those permitted by an enforcement agency, are barred from flying.
    • Articles under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter dealing with Action with Respect to Threats to the Peace, Breaches of the Peace, and Acts of Aggression’ are invoked to authorise a potential no-fly zone.
    • Article 39 dictates the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to determine the probable existence of any threat to peace or an act of aggression.
    • It suggests further measures, if required, are to be carded out in accordance to Article 41 and 42 to restore international peace and security.
    • No fly zones have been implemented without UN mandate too.

    Cases of implementation

    • In 1991 after the first Gulf War, U.S. and its coalition partners imposed two no fly zones over Iraq to prevent Saddam Hussain born attacking ethnic groups.
    • In non-combat situations, No fly zones can be imposed permanently and temporarily over sensitive installations or for high profile events like Olympics.

    What is the feasibility of ‘No fly zone over Ukraine?

    • No-fly zone declarations are essentially a compromise in situations demanding a response to ongoing violence, but full military intervention is politically untenable.
    • NATO has previously imposed No-Fly Zones in non-member states like Libya and Bosnia. With Russia it fears a full-fledged war in Europe.
    • It has been demanding that NATO scale back to the pre-1997 arrangements. Both Russia and Ukraine are not members of NATO.
    • Due to this the idea of imposing a no fly zone’ over Ukraine has been rejected outright.
    • If implemented, it means NATO deploying aircraft and assets which would result in a direct confrontation with Russia.

    What are the broad contours in a No-Fly Zone?

    • The UNSC had banned all flights in the Libyan airspace post adoption of Resolution 1973 in 2011 in response to the Libyan Civil War.
    • Member slates were asked to deny permission to any Libyan registered aircraft to use the territory without requisite approval.
    • Further, the member states could bar any entity from flying if they found reasonable grounds to believe the aircraft is ferrying lethal or non-lethal military equipment.
    • Member states were permitted to allow flights whose sole purpose was humanitarian, such as delivery of medical supplies and food, chauffer humanitarian workers and related assistance, or evacuating foreign nationals from the territory.

     

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  • FATF retains Pakistan on its terror funding ‘Grey List’

    The global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has retained Pakistan on its terrorism financing “grey list”.

    What is the FATF?

    • FATF is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1989 on the initiative of the G7 to develop policies to combat money laundering.
    • The FATF Secretariat is housed at the OECD headquarters in Paris.
    • It holds three Plenary meetings in the course of each of its 12-month rotating presidencies.
    • As of 2019, FATF consisted of 37 member jurisdictions.

    India and FATF

    • India became an Observer at FATF in 2006. Since then, it had been working towards full-fledged membership.
    • On June 25, 2010, India was taken in as the 34th country member of FATF.
    • The EAG (Eurasian Group) is a regional body comprising nine countries: India, Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Belarus.

    What is the role of FATF?

    • Watchdog on terror financing: The rise of the global economy and international trade has given rise to financial crimes such as money laundering.
    • Recommendation against financial crimes: The FATF makes recommendations for combating financial crime, reviews members’ policies and procedures, and seeks to increase acceptance of anti-money laundering regulations across the globe.

    What is the Black List and the Grey List?

    • Black List: The blacklist, now called the “Call for action” was the common shorthand description for the FATF list of “Non-Cooperative Countries or Territories” (NCCTs).
    • Grey List: Countries that are considered safe haven for supporting terror funding and money laundering are put in the FATF grey list. This inclusion serves as a warning to the country that it may enter the blacklist.

    Consequences of being in the FATF black list:

    • Economic sanctions from IMF, World Bank, ADB
    • Problem in getting loans from IMF, World Bank, ADB and other countries
    • Trade sanctions: Reduction in international trade
    • International boycott

    Pakistan and FATF

    • Pakistan, which continues to remain on the “grey list” of FATF, had earlier been given the deadline till June to ensure compliance with the 27-point action plan against terror funding networks.
    • It has been under the FATF’s scanner since June 2018, when it was put on the Grey List for terror financing and money laundering risks.
    • FATF and its partners such as the Asia Pacific Group (APG) are reviewing Pakistan’s processes, systems, and weaknesses on the basis of a standard matrix for anti-money laundering (AML) and combating the financing of terrorism (CFT) regime.

     

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  • Decay in the international rules-based order

    Context

    The unexpected Russian military intervention in Ukraine is merely the latest symptom of an underlying cause of decay in the international ‘rules-based’ order.

    Background of the idea of international rules-based order and sovereignty

    • It was the Diet of Westphalia (in the then Holy Roman Empire) in 1648 that first set out what our post-World War II global institutional framework established as the principle of ‘sovereignty’.
    • Sovereignty was for a long time the singular bedrock, the very founding principle that the UN Charter sought to firmly establish, in order to make wars of aggression (as opposed to self-defense) illegal under international law, and liable to be punished by the international community via the UN Security Council and its right to use coercive force.

    What is a state?

    • State is a community that feels as one, accepts a set of common guiding principles and is constituted by member states who are willing to operate according to rules / norms of behaviour.
    • There has always been a theoretical debate in the discipline, drawing on elements of philosophy, psychology and even economics, on whether or not we actually live in an international society of states or whether it is still merely a system of states.
    • System of states: A system of states is a very complex landscape consisting of individual actors who possess coercive power to varying degrees, have zero-sum ambitions to varying degrees, adhere to global ‘rules’ to the extent that they are convenient or exigent at a moment, while being willing to covertly and overtly bend and even break those rules, when core national interests are involved.
    • In the second interpretation, states are engaged in game-theoretic, rational-utilitarian cooperation, competition and even conflict, depending on the specificities of each situation.
    • In a nutshell, it is a highly complicated theoretical and practical situation wherein simplistic, moralising explanations and narratives about events are typically wrong and often misleading or counterproductive.

    UN and the issue of enforcement

    • Forces like the internet and social media, combined with the cultural dominance of the West, portended a gradual spread of democratic values.
    • The biggest challenge to this kind of perspective usually came from the ‘realist’ camp of International Relations researchers who argue that argue that in the absence of effective enforcement of rules, the notion of such rules was an empty idea.
    • Enforcement was theoretically meant to happen by way of the Security Council.
    • However, this plan was stillborn due to the fundamental unwillingness of the five permanent members to countenance a possibility of global action against themselves and the consequent injection of the notion of a ‘veto’ in the world’s highest security-focused body.
    • This has meant that for the entirety of the UN’s existence, true Security Council intervention in an international crisis has only been possible in the rarest of rare exceptions when all five permanent members happened to agree.

    Threat to rule-based order

    • The foregoing analysis allows us to conclude that far from being an isolated incident that for the first time since the UN Charter was drafted has violated our rules-based order, the Russian intervention in Ukraine is a significant further erosion in the believability of anyone’s claims that such a thing actually exists.
    • All states have shown their willingness to conduct foreign policy at the cost of others.
    • Most states in the last few decades have provided international rules with a lot of ‘lip-service’ while using clandestine methods to achieve their aims.

    Nuclear weapons as a source of stability

    • The notion of ‘mutually assured destruction’ created a tension that seemed to preclude even conventional warfare between two nuclear-armed rivals.
    •  Most interestingly, with the separation of seven decades between Hiroshima / Nagasaki and the present, a gradual shift in the calculus of defence planners seems to have occurred.
    •  From the sense that a mere conventional conflict would be sufficient trigger for a power to exercise a nuclear option, planners seem to have gained a new comfort with nuclear weapons in existence.
    • They no longer seem to believe they will be used short of an existential threat.
    • Russia equally feels confident that merely asserting its core security interests in Ukraine will not draw a nuclear response from NATO.
    • Waning American dominance combined with a retreat of global norms and a lessening nuclear deterrent to armed conflict and the rise of new power centres in Asia are a potent mix of new dynamics in our world.

    Conclusion

    Never since the establishment of our post-war global system has it been under such significant threat. India must take stock and with extreme vigilance approach its entire gamut of cooperative, competitive and adversarial options while navigating this wholly new world out there.

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