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Subject: International Relations

  • A good foreign policy must also make a difference at home

    Context

    This is the edited excerpts from the lecture delivered by India’s External Affairs Minister at St. Stephen’s College, Delhi on March 24.

    Relevance of foreign policy at personal level

    • Through a good foreign policy, our everyday needs from the world must be better met.
    • And since we are a collective as a country, our national security must be assured.
    • Foreign policy being the link to the outside, it should enable us to draw what we seek.
    • This could be in terms of technology or capital, best practices, or even work opportunities.
    • And obviously, we would all like to be strong; we would like to look good and we would like to feel appreciated.

    Recent instances in which India’s foreign policy directly influence the common man

    • Through Operation Ganga, Indian students stuck in Ukraine were brought home.
    • It was the result of intervention by India’s foreign policy apparatus at the highest levels in Russia and Ukraine to ensure the ceasing of fire for safe passage.
    •  When the first wave of Covid hit India in 2020, we scrambled across the world to secure PPEs, masks and ventilators.
    • And we did so in a seller’s market as the demand far exceeded supply.
    •  The second wave in 2021 saw a similar spike in demand for oxygen and specialised medicines from abroad.
    • Locating, negotiating and contracting supplies became the priority for Indian diplomacy. And it bent its back to deliver.

    Influence of foreign policy at the collective level

    • When it comes to security, external or internal, diplomacy could be a preventive, a mitigator or a problem-solver.
    • It can help raise awareness of a shared threat, just as it can find partners against common dangers.
    •  And then there is the economy, with its search for investment, technology and best practices.
    • In each of these sectors, foreign relationships can accelerate India’s progress.
    • And cumulatively, they expand employment and improve your quality of life.
    • It also matters to all of us what other nations think of India, our culture and our way of life.

    Role of foreign policy in delivering on development

    • The most effective foreign policy is one that delivers on development.
    • In Asia, all modernising economies have single-mindedly focused their external interactions on obtaining capital, technology and best practices from abroad.
    • It may be information technology or auto manufacturing, food production or food processing, metros or bullet trains, space capabilities or nuclear energy; the fruits of foreign collaboration are there today for all of us to see.
    • Newer challenges like green growth and climate action have started to open up still more possibilities.
    • All this happens because of our ability to identify, engage, negotiate and leverage opportunities of interest abroad across many many domains.

    Building blocks of India’s foreign policy

    • The six broad objectives that were spelt out to the policy-makers and implementers were clear.
    • 1] Shaping global perception: We must bring about a change of thinking in the world about us.
    • 2] Partnership on equal terms: The partnerships we should create should be on more equal terms, and with smaller countries, more generous.
    • 3] Shaping the global agenda: The global agenda and the big issues of our times should be shaped by India as much as possible.
    • 4] Leveraging foreign policy for domestic progress: Foreign relationships should be actively explored and leveraged for domestic development and progress.
    • 5] People-centric foreign policy: The very conceptualisation of foreign policy should be more people-centric.
    • 6] Our culture, traditions and thoughts should percolate our own articulation as well as influence international debates and initiatives.
    • Yoga and Ayurveda were obvious examples in this regard.

    Conclusion

    As we mark 75 years of independence, Azadi ka Amrit Mahotsav, there is good cause to be confident about our prospects. But to be so, it is equally important to be aware of the opportunities and challenges that the world currently presents. And surely, we can be so once we appreciate how much foreign policy really matters.

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  • In endgame of Vienna nuclear talks, Tehran holds the cards

    Context

    Iran’s foreign minister during his recent visit to Syria, noted that Iran and the major powers, who have been negotiating a mutual return to the Iran nuclear deal — or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — over the last eleven months, were closer to an agreement “than ever before”.

    Issues in the negotiation over Iran’s return to JCPOA

    • The ongoing eighth round of talks between Iran and P4+1, has been going on since December 27, 202.
    • These issues remaining are understood to be Tehran’s demand for guarantees against another withdrawal in the future, the verifiable lifting of all US sanctions, and the IAEA investigation into Iran’s past nuclear activities.
    • Guarantees against another withdrawal: On the issue of guarantees against another withdrawal, Iran is no longer demanding legal guarantees from Washington.
    • Lifting all sanctions: Tehran has refused to retreat from its uncompromising stance on the lifting of all US sanctions, while the Biden administration has so far been prepared to lift only those “inconsistent” with the deal.
    • Another key sticking point, though not directly related to the nuclear deal, is Iran’s demand that President Biden reverse his predecessor’s designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation.

    Concerns

    •  Western interlocutors are alarmed by Iran’s shrinking breakout time — the time needed for gathering enough weapons-grade uranium to make a single nuclear warhead.
    • Also, they are concerned that the longer Iran stays outside the agreement, the more nuclear expertise and fissile material it will accumulate, thus making the original deal obsolete.
    • Thus, time is of the essence for reaching an agreement that will turn the clock back on Iran’s nuclear activities.

    Conclusion

    Iran uses its nuclear activities as a bargaining counter to seek an agreement that will best serve its interests. So, the early conclusion of the deal is important to turn the clock back on Iran’s nuclear activities.

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    Back2Basics: What is JCPOA

    • The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a agreement reached by Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) on July 14, 2015.
    • The nuclear deal was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231, adopted on July 20, 2015.
    • Iran’s compliance with the nuclear-related provisions of the JCPOA is verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) according to certain requirements set forth in the agreement.
    • Despite Iran’s verified compliance with the deal, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018, and subsequently re-imposed all U.S. sanctions on Iran lifted by the accord.
    • Then-U.S. President Donald Trump cited the deal’s sunset provisions and its failure to account for Iran’s ballistic missile program, among other things, as impetus for withdrawal from the accord.

  • Who are the Bucharest Nine (B9) Countries?

    The envoys to India of nine Eastern European countries called Bucharest Nine jointly wrote to acquaint the Indian public with the basic facts on the ground” about the “premeditated, unprovoked and unjustified Russian aggression in Ukraine”.

    What is Bucharest Nine?

    • The “Bucharest Nine” is a group of nine NATO countries in Eastern Europe that became part of the US-led military alliance after the end of the Cold War.
    • The Bucharest Nine or Bucharest Format, often abbreviated as the B9, was founded on November 4, 2015, and takes its name from Bucharest, the capital of Romania.
    • The group was created on the initiative of Klaus Iohannis, who has been President of Romania since 2014, and Andrzej Duda, who became President of Poland in August 2015.

    Composition

    • The B9 are, apart from Romania and Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the three Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
    • All members of the B9 are part of the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
    • All nine countries were once closely associated with the now dissolved Soviet Union, but later chose the path of democracy.
    • Romania, Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria are former signatories of the now-dissolved Warsaw Pact military alliance led by the Soviet Union.
    • The other Warsaw Pact countries were the erstwhile Czechoslovakia and East Germany, and Albania. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were part of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).

    Functions of B9

    • The B9 offers a platform for deepening the dialogue and consultation among the participant allied states, in order to articulate their specific contribution to the ongoing processes across the North-Atlantic Alliance.
    • It works in total compliance with the principles of solidarity and indivisibility of the security of the NATO Member States.

    Opposition to Russian expansion

    • The B9 countries have been critical of President Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine since 2014, when the war in the Donbas started and Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula.
    • After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the B9 met in Warsaw.
    • Ukraine’s President has also appealed to the B9 for defense aid, sanctions, pressure on the aggressor Russia and create one anti-war coalition.

     

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  • Places in news: Solomon Islands

    The Solomon Islands has defended plans to sign a security deal with Beijing that could allow China to boost its military presence in the South Pacific island nation. This has left Australia very concerned.

    Solomon Islands

    • Solomon Islands is a sovereign country consisting of six major islands and over 900 smaller islands in Oceania, to the east of Papua New Guinea and northwest of Vanuatu.
    • It has a land area of 28,400 square kilometres and a population of 652,858.[10] Its capital, Honiara, is located on the largest island, Guadalcanal.
    • The country takes its name from the Solomon Islands archipelago, which is a collection of Melanesian islands.
    • It also includes the North Solomon Islands (a part of Papua New Guinea), but excludes outlying islands, such as the Santa Cruz Islands and Rennell and Bellona.
    • The islands have been settled since at least some time between 30,000 and 28,800 BCE, with later waves of migrants, notably the Lapita people, mixing and producing the modern indigenous Solomon Islanders population.

     

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  • Time for India to redefine its relationship with Russia

    Context

    Russia’s war on Ukraine has decisively shaped international opinion. Indian foreign policy is also going to be affected in a profound manner.

    India’s foreign policy conundrum

    • Russia’s attack on Ukraine has put New Delhi in a foreign policy conundrum that will not disappear soon because Russia’s action has changed the global order.
    • India has not directly criticised Moscow’s action.
    • Memories of the historic Indo-Soviet partnership still seem to tip the scales when it comes to India’s vote at the UNSC.
    • Western countries have criticised India’s repeated abstentions at the UNSC on the issue of the Russian invasion.
    • The Western world has imposed unprecedented sanctions against Russia and banned energy imports.
    • New Delhi is concerned about the impact of these sanctions on global finance, energy supplies, and transportation, amid growing signs that they will constrain India’s ability to import Russian oil.

    India’s challenges

    • Russia’s increasing dependence on China: What must worry India is the fact that Russia will now become increasingly dependent on Chinese support to defend its policies.
    • The collapsing ruble, the punishing sanctions, and the dire state of the Russian economy will push Russia further into China’s military and economic orbit.
    • China’s challenge in Indo-Pacific: India’s real strategic challenge is surfacing in the Indo-Pacific with the rise of China, as Beijing has consistently sought to expand its zone of military, economic and political influence through the Belt and Road Initiative.
    • Though India would like the U.S. to continue to focus on China, it is not possible for Washington to ignore Russia’s aggression along NATO’s periphery.

    How India’s ties with Russia changed over time

    • Since the end of the Cold War, Indians have been debating the contours of strategic autonomy.
    • For one section the doctrine of ‘multi-alignment’ is the 21st century avatar of strategic autonomy as India has been expanding its engagement with all the major powers.
    • Following the disintegration of the USSR, India joined Russia and China against the unipolarity of the U.S.
    •  For some time, this common concern about unipolarity put the three countries on the same path towards mutual cooperation and understanding.
    • Later, Brazil and South Africa were also brought into this coalition.
    • However, it soon became clear that India and China did not see eye to eye.
    • Moreover, India was determined to maintain its partnership with Russia, an important arms supplier.
    • Its ties with the U.S. have also improved significantly since the end of the Cold War.
    • But continuing dependence on Russian weaponry has become India’s strategic headache.

    Way forward for India

    •  Under Mr. Putin, Russia is in a state of transition, swinging wildly from one crisis to another.
    • Therefore, it is too risky for India to pursue vague aims vis-à-vis Russia in these uncertain times.
    • A NATO-Russia Council was formed specifically to alleviate Russia’s concerns, and that Russia was recognised as one of the world’s leading industrial powers through a formal admission into the elite G-7.
    • Though Moscow has drifted much closer to Beijing, and is sharply critical of India’s engagement with the U.S. and the Quad, India finds it difficult to extend support to Ukraine.
    • It goes without saying that the U.S. is the country most likely to bolster India’s future as a great power.

    Conclusion

    It is not going to be easy for New Delhi to maintain its balancing act in the future as Washington hardens its position further. It is inevitable that during this time of diplomatic and strategic uncertainty, New Delhi needs to be ready to radically redefine its relationship with Moscow.

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  • Govt. steps in to tackle Russian trade hurdles

    The government has convened a multi-Ministerial group to look into how to overcome challenges in trade with Russia, including managing payments for exporters and importers.

    Recent course of updates

    • Many parliamentarians have raised concerns over India’s abstentions at the United Nations and the impact of Indian policy on India’s trade and ties with the US.
    • Developments indicate a possible revival of “rupee-rouble trade” in the wake of economic sanctions against Russian banks and entities by more than 40 US and European allies.
    • India’s position has been “steadfast and consistent”, and India has repeatedly called for the immediate cessation of violence and end to all hostilities.

    Gearing-up for a ‘Shaky’ response

    • FM responded to a question over India’s support on sanctions being “somewhat shaky” amongst Quad partners.
    • Leaders asked whether there would be any “negative impact” on India’s relations with its closest allies.

    India’s clear stance

    • Indian foreign policy decisions are made in Indian national interest and we are guided by our thinking, our views and our interests.
    • So, there is no question of linking the Ukraine situation to issues of trade, the FM clarified.

     

     

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  • Why ICJ order on Ukraine matters

    Context

    The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Russia to immediately suspend its military operations in Ukraine. In short, to end the war instantly.

    Breach of the Genocide Convention

    • Ukraine moved the ICJ against Russia accusing it of falsely claiming that Ukrainians are committing genocide in their territory and using this untruthful premise to start an illegal war.
    • This, Ukraine believes, breaches its rights under the Genocide Convention — a treaty that is binding to both Russia and Ukraine.
    • This decision was rendered by the ICJ in response to Ukraine’s application for indication of provisional measures under Article 41 of the ICJ Statute.
    • Provisional measures under the ICJ Statute are the international equivalent of an interim injunction that can be provided by the court to preserve the rights of the parties pending a final decision on the merits of the case.

    Three reasons cited by the ICJ

    1] ICJ’s jurisdiction in the case

    • Since 2014, Russia has been repeatedly accusing Ukraine of committing genocide in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
    •  Just before the military invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned ending the genocide in Ukraine as the reason to use force.
    • Ukraine vehemently rejects this charge.
    • Prima facie, this shows the existence of a “dispute” under Article IX of the Genocide Convention — the compromissory clause that bestows jurisdiction on the ICJ.
    • Self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter: Russia contended that its formal basis for use of force against Ukraine was its right to self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter (a patently illegal argument, but this issue is not before the ICJ).
    • The court held that it had prima facie jurisdiction in the case because the subject matter fell under the Genocide Convention.

    2] Preservation of rights claimed by the parties

    • Ukraine argues that it has a right under the Genocide Convention not to be falsely accused of genocide and rely on this wrong pretext to use force against its territorial integrity.
    • The ICJ held that the objective of indicating provisional measures is the preservation of the rights claimed by the parties, pending the decision on merits.
    • Since the current proceedings were only for provisional measures, the ICJ did not decide definitively whether Ukraine has such a right under the Genocide Convention.
    • Nonetheless, the ICJ found Ukraine’s right plausible, which is adequate for the current purposes.
    • While the court did not decide on whether Russia has breached the Genocide Convention, as this is a question of merits, it did express doubt over whether a country can unilaterally use force against another country for punishing or preventing an alleged act of genocide.

    3] Risk of irreparable harm to Ukraine’s rights

    • The ICJ held that if it does not indicate provisional measures, that is, order cessation of military action, there is a real and imminent risk of irreparable harm to Ukraine’s rights.
    • This is because of the magnitude of destruction that the ongoing war has caused.

    Significance of the order

    • ICJ’s decision is binding on Russia and constitutes part of its international legal obligations.
    • However, the remedy for not complying with ICJ rulings lies with the UN Security Council, which has Russia as a permanent member.
    • But just because authoritarian populist leaders like Vladimir Putin don’t care for international law does not diminish its significance.

    Conclusion

    The weight of global opinion against Russia on its egregious abuse of international law is mounting with each passing day. Russia can keep ignoring this only at grave peril to itself.

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  • Deepening investments in Australia-India strategic, economic, and community ties

    Context

    On March 21, Prime Ministers of India and Australia held their Virtual Summit and took stock of the pace of implementing the Australia-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

    India-Australia relations

    • Since we elevated our relationship in 2020, we have advanced practical actions on cyber and critical technologies, maritime affairs, defence ties, economic and business links and Quadrilateral cooperation.
    • The two Prime Ministers announced a range of tangible and practical initiatives spanning the breadth of our shared economic, strategic, and regional interests.

    Areas of cooperation

    • Energy partnership: Both countries are working on a new and renewable energy partnership, to support the development of technologies such as green hydrogen and ultra-low cost solar.
    • We are also supporting research and investment to unlock Australian critical minerals for Indian advanced manufacturing.
    • We will boost collaboration on innovation, science and entrepreneurship, to scale up ideas that address global challenges.
    • Space sector: We are also increasing investments into our countries’ rapidly growing space sectors.
    • We are establishing the Australia-India Centre of Excellence for Critical and Emerging Technology Policy — and a Consulate-General — in Bengaluru.
    • Australians value highly the Indian diaspora and student contributions to its community — whether economic, social, or cultural.
    • Australia and India are also working to ensure a peaceful and stable region.
    • Both countries are committed to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
    • In our defence relationship, there is an enhancement in information sharing and operational cooperation.
    • Such arrangements also help continue delivering quality humanitarian support to the region, seen recently when India helped Australia’s Pacific family, Tonga and Kiribati.

    Conclusion

    These investments in strategic, economic, and community ties show what we can achieve when two multicultural democracies join in a spirit of trust and understanding.

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  • On South Asia, US must reorient itself

    Context

    On the external front, Russia’s Ukraine war and the Sino-Russian alliance are setting the stage for a reordering of South Asia’s great power relations.

    Opportunity for the US in South Asia

    • If it looks beyond the region’s immediate response to the war in Ukraine, Washington can seize the current opportunity to elevate the US’s salience for the Subcontinent in partnership with India.
    • The Indo-Pacific strategy offers new pathways for the US to limit the traditional economic and military weight of China and Russia in the Subcontinent.

    Three regional trends in South Asia

    1] Decline of Pakistan’s influence

    • In the wake of the missile accident, Islamabad moved to seek international intervention, including from the UN Secretary-General.
    • But there were few takers for this old South Asian formula, except in Beijing.
    • Underlining the peremptory dismissal of Islamabad’s concerns is a deeper trend — the relative decline of Pakistan’s international standing.
    • Since his election, US President Joe Biden has refused to call Imran Khan, who runs a “major non-NATO ally”; high-level visitors from Washington now skip Pakistan during South Asia visits.
    • Chinese and Russian official visitors are among the few to combine trips to Delhi and Islamabad.
    • Islamabad’s decline after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is likely to accelerate amidst Pakistan’s deepening domestic political chaos.
    • With an economy that is smaller than that of Bangladesh and limited prospects for rapid growth in the coming years, Pakistan will find it hard to match its traditional claim for “strategic parity” with India.

    2] Declining interest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia

    •  Just a couple of years ago, China’s commercial march into South Asia seemed unstoppable. Not any longer.
    • Troubles in Pakistan and Sri Lanka: Pakistan and Sri Lanka, which embraced the BRI with great gusto, are South Asia’s two worst-performing economies.
    • The deepening economic crises are compelling the elites of Pakistan and Sri Lanka to focus on non-Chinese financial sources to stabilise their economies.
    • Sri Lanka, which ostentatiously refused to accept $480 million developmental assistance from the US in 2020, is now desperately looking for hard currency support for its sinking economic fortunes.
    •  In Nepal, the dominant communists had made political opposition to US infrastructure assistance of $500 million as a life and death issue for a decade.
    • At the end of last month, Nepal’s parliament ratified the US loan that will facilitate Nepal’s infrastructure development and its economic integration with the Subcontinent.

    3] The growing possibilities for US security cooperation with the Subcontinent

    • During the Cold War, the US military engagement was limited to Pakistan.
    • In the 21st century, there has been a steady expansion of US defence cooperation with India.
    • The current focus on the Indo-Pacific is getting Washington to modernise the defence partnerships with the smaller countries of the region.
    • The Trump Administration discarded the traditional obsession with Pakistan and began to recognise the strategic significance of the smaller South Asian states for its Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • The visit of US Undersecretary of State to Bangladesh over the weekend saw progress towards signing the so-called GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement) that codifies the commitment to protect classified military information.

    Conclusion

    Reversing that must necessarily involve deeper security cooperation with the region and developing alternatives to military dependence on Beijing and Moscow. This is best done in partnership with Delhi.

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  • Sri Lanka’s aggravating Economic Crisis

    Sri Lanka’s economic crisis is aggravating rapidly, putting citizens through enormous hardship.

    Reasons for the Crisis

    The first wave of the pandemic in 2020 offered early and sure signs of distress.

    • In-migration: Thousands of Sri Lankan labourers in West Asian countries were left stranded and returned jobless.
    • Shut-down: Garment factories and tea estates could not function, as infections raged in clusters. Tourism sector to saw a big dip.
    • Domestic job losses: Thousands of youth lost their jobs in cities as establishments abruptly sacked them or shut down.
    • Forex decline: It meant that all key foreign exchange earning sectors, such as exports and remittances, along with tourism, were brutally hit.

    Policy failures of Lankan govt

    • No strategy: The lack of a comprehensive strategy to respond to the crisis then was coupled with certain policy decisions last year.
    • Ill-advised policies: It included the government’s abrupt switch to organic farming —widely deemed “ill-advised”, further aggravated the problem.
    • Food hoarding: The government declared emergency regulations for the distribution of essential food items. It put wide import restrictions to save dollars which in turn led to consequent market irregularities and reported hoarding.
    • Continuous borrowing: Fears of a sovereign default rose by the end of 2021, with the country’s foreign reserves plummeting to $1.6 billion, and deadlines for repaying external loans looming.

    What is happening on the ground?

    • At the macro-economic level, all indicators are worrisome.
    • The Sri Lankan rupee, which authorities floated this month, has fallen to nearly 265 against the U.S. dollar. Consumer Price inflation is at 16.8% and foreign reserves stood at $2.31 billion at the end of February.
    • Sri Lanka must repay foreign debt totalling nearly $7 billion this year and continue importing essentials from its dwindling dollar account.
    • Sri Lanka will incur an import bill of $22 billion this year, resulting in a trade deficit of $10 billion.

    Implications on Public

    • For citizens, this means long waits in queues for fuel, a shortage of cooking gas, contending with prolonged power cuts in many localities and struggles to find medicines for patients.
    • In families of working people, the crisis is translating to cutting down on milk for children, eating fewer meals, or going to bed hungry.

    How is India helping?

    • Acting in the Neighbourhood’s first policy, India stands with Sri Lanka.
    • $1 billion credit line signed for supply of essential commodities. Key element of the package of support extended by India.
    • Beginning January 2022, India has extended assistance totalling $ 2.4 billion — including an $400 million RBI currency swap and a $500 million loan deferment.

    Chinese lure of aid

    • China is considering Sri Lanka’s recent request for further $2.5 billion assistance, in addition to the $2.8 billion Beijing has extended since the outbreak of the pandemic.

    How is India’s assistance being viewed in Sri Lanka?

    • Sacking key infra projects: The leadership has thanked India for the timely assistance, but there is growing scepticism in Sri Lankan media and some sections, over Indian assistance “being tied” to New Delhi inking key infrastructure projects.
    • Deep incursion: They mainly include the strategic Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm project; the National Thermal Power Corporation’s recent agreement with Ceylon Electricity Board to set up a solar power plant in Sampur, with investment from India’s Adani Group.
    • Diplomatic blackmail: SL media accuses New Delhi was resorting to “diplomatic blackmail”. The political opposition has accused the Adani Group of entering Sri Lanka through the “back door”, avoiding competitive bids and due process.

    Options available for SL

    • Sri Lanka is hoping for a Rapid Finance Instrument (RFI) facility as well as a larger Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the IMF to deal with its foreign currency shortages.
    • IMF had assured to help the country with an amount of $300 million to $600 million.

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