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Subject: International Relations

  • In news: Loya Jirga

    The Afghan Loya Jirga approves release of 400 ‘hard-core’ Taliban prisoners.

    The term seems peculiar. We may expect a prelim question on the same.

    What is Loya Jirga?

    • A Loya Jirga is a special type of jirga, or legal assembly, in Pashtunwali, the traditional code of laws of the Pashtun people.
    • It is mainly organized for choosing a new head of state in case of sudden death, adopting a new constitution, or to settle national or regional issue such as war.
    • It predates modern-day written or fixed laws and is mostly favoured by the Pashtun people but to a lesser extent by other nearby groups that have been influenced by Pashtuns (historically known as Afghans).
    • In Afghanistan, Loya Jirgas have been reportedly organized since at least the early 18th century when the Hotaki and Durrani dynasties rose to power.

  • A new direction for India-U.S. ties

    This article analyses what the new shift in the India-U.S. ties will require for the mutual benefit.

    Following 12 factors would influence the depth and longevity of the India-U.S. ties.

    1) Outcome of the  U.S. Presidential elections

    • The success of India’s new bonding with the U.S. will depend on the outcome of the U.S. Presidential elections.
    • The Democratic party candidate with the Left wing and liberals in the U.S. has been highly critical of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.

    2) Need to build trust with the U.S.

    • India purchased of the S-400 air defence missile system from Russia disregarding the U.S. concerns.
    • India refused to send Indian troops to Afghanistan.
    • We need to build trust with the U.S. that we will give to the U.S. as good as it gives us.
    • For this structuring we must realise that India-U.S. relations require give and take on both sides.
    • What India needs to take today is for dealing with the Ladakh confrontation with China.
    • India needs U.S. hardware military equipment.

    3)  Fighting the U.S. enemy in neighbourhood

    • The U.S. needs India to fight her enemies in the neighbourhood such as in Afghanistan.
    • India should send two divisions gradually to Afghanistan and relieve U.S. troops to go home

    4) Intelligence sharing and cooperation

    • India needs the support of the U.S. and its ally, Israel, in cyberwarfare, satellite mappings of China and Pakistan.
    • There is a need for sharing intercepts of electronic communication, hard intelligence on terrorists, and controlling the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence in Pakistan.

    5) Developing naval bases

    • India needs the U.S. to completely develop the Andaman & Nicobar, and also the Lakshadweep Islands as a naval and air force base.
    • These naval bases can be used by the U.S  and shared along with its allies such as Indonesia and Japan.

    6) Economic relations and India’s concerns

    • The economic relations must be based on macroeconomic commercial principles.
    • Free, indiscriminate flow of U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) is not in India’s national interest.

    7) Technology sharing

    • India needs technologies such as thorium utilisation, desalination of sea water, and hydrogen fuel cells.

    8) U.S. should allow import of agricultural product

    • The U.S. must allow India’s exports of agricultural products including Bos indicus milk, which are of highly competitive prices in the world.

    9) FDI in India

    • FDI should be allowed into India selectively from abroad, including from the U.S.
    • FDI in India should be based on the economic theory of comparative advantage and not on subsidies and gratis.

    10) Tariffs

    • Tariffs of both India and the U.S. should be lowered, and the Indian rupee should be gradually revalued to ₹35 to a dollar.
    • Later, with the economy picking up, the rupee rate should go below 10 to the dollar.

    11) Stay away from certain issues

    •  India should not provide the U.S. with our troops to enter Tibet, or be involved in the Hong Kong and Taiwan issue.
    • There is always a possibility of a leadership change in China.
    • Thus, China’s policy changed very favourably towards India.
    • In the cases of Tibet, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, we have made explicit agreements.
    • In the case of Tibet, two formal treaties were signed by Nehru (1954) and A.B. Vajpayee (2003).

    12) Trilateral commitment to world peace

    • In the long run, India, the U.S., and China should form a trilateral commitment for world peace provided Chinese current international policies undergo a healthy change.

    Consider the question “What are the factors influencing the India-U.S. ties? Suggest the pathway to address the issues that hamper the deepening of India-U.S. ties.”

    Conclusion

    Both countries need to recognise each other’s concern and work towards the deepening of the ties for the mutual benefit and with a view to dealing with the challenges confronting both the countries.

  • What India should consider about the proposition to isolate China

    The economic grip China exerts on the world protects it from the threat of isolation. This article examines this issue and its implications for India.

    Worsening U.S.-China ties and implications for other countries

    • After years of cooperating with one another, the U.S. and China are currently at the stage of confrontation.
    • Both are seeking allies to join their camps.
    • This places several countries in Asia, in a difficult position as most of them, loathe to take sides.
    • The U.S. may not necessarily be the first choice for many countries of Asia and the Asia-Pacific region.
    • In the case of China, it is clearly more feared than loved.

    China’s aggression

    •  Beijing’s virtual takeover of Hong Kong has only confirmed what had long been known about China’s intentions.
    • In March-April this year, China further stepped up its aggressive actions, renaming almost 80 geographical features in the region as an index of Chinese sovereignty.
    •  Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea have all complained about China’s menacing postures in their vicinity.

    How countries are resisting China

    • Hardly any country in Asia is willing to openly confront China, and side with the U.S.
    • East Asian countries explain that China was always known to be over-protective of the South China Sea.
    • And China consider South China Sea a natural shield against possible hostile intervention by outside forces inimical to it.
    • No U.S. assurance and Chinese aggression has been enough to make countries in the region openly side with the U.S. and against China.

    China’s economic grip and lessons for India

    • Despite a series of diktats from Washington to restrict economic and other relations, China remains unfazed.
    • China seems confident that its stranglehold on the global economy ensures that it does not face any real challenge.
    • It would be wise for India to recognise this.
    • It is equally necessary to realise how fickle some of these countries can be when it comes to economic issues.
    •  At a recent meeting in Washington Australia (a member of the Quad) made it clear that China is important for Australia.
    • Likewise, the U.K.’s Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, recently stated in its Parliament, that the U.K. wants a positive relationship with China.
    • It is evident that few nations across the world are willing to risk China’s ire because of strong economic ties.

    India’s relations with neighbouring countries: concerns

    • India’s relations with Nepal, meanwhile, have hit a roadblock over the Kalapani area.
    • In Sri Lanka, the return of the Rajapaksas to power after the recent elections does not augur too well for India-Sri Lanka relations.
    • The strain in India-Bangladesh relations is a real cause for concern since it can provide a beachhead against Chinese activities in the region.

    Growing Chinese presence in India’s sphere of influence

    •  In July, the Chinese Foreign Minister organised a virtual meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Nepal, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
    • In this meeting, China proposed economic corridor plan with Nepal, styled as the Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network.
    • China has also made headway in Iran to an extent, again at India’s expense.

    Conclusion

    Geo-balancing is not happening to China’s disadvantage. This lesson must be well understood when India plan its future strategy.

  • Back in news: Indus Water Treaty (IWT)

    India has refused a request by Pakistan to hold a meeting on issues around the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) at the Attari check post near the India-Pakistan border.

    The IWT has been in existence since 1960, and reached a flash point in the aftermath of the Uri attacks in 2016 with PM declaring that “blood and water couldn’t flow together”.

    About Indus Waters Treaty, 1960

    • The IWT is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India — the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India
    • The control over the water flowing in three “western” rivers of India — the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan
    • The treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use and unrestricted use for power generation, domestic, industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc. while laying down precise regulations for India to build projects
    • India has also been given the right to generate hydroelectricity through the run of the river (RoR) projects on the Western Rivers which, subject to specific criteria for design and operation is unrestricted.

    Talks stalled on key projects

    • Among the key points on the table was evolving a procedure to solve differences on technical aspects governing the construction of the Ratle run-of-the-river (RoR) project on the Chenab in the Kishtwar district.
    • India has called for the appointment of a ‘neutral’ party while Pakistan favours a Court of Arbitration to agree upon a final resolution on the design parameters of this hydropower project.
    • According to the IWT, India has the right to build RoR projects on the three ‘western’ rivers — the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus — provided it does so without substantially impeding water flow in Pakistan downstream.
    • Pakistan believes that the project’s current design does pose a serious impediment and has told the World Bank that it wants a Court of Arbitration (CoA) set up to decide on the issue.
    • India says this is only a technical issue and mutually solvable.

  • What are Confucius Institutes, and why are they under the scanner in India?

    • The Ministry of Education (previously HRD) had sent a letter to several institutions seeking information about the activities of their Confucius Institutes (CIs) and Chinese language training centres.
    • This has brought the spotlight to China’s CI programme, a key pillar of Beijing’s global soft power effort, and raised questions about the future of India-China cooperation in the education space.

    Try this question for mains:

    Q.“It cannot be business as usual with China after the border clash.” Critically comment.

    What are the Confucius Institutes (CI)?

    • Starting with a CI in Seoul in 2004, China’s National Office for Teaching Chinese as a Foreign Language (NOCFL) known as Hanban establishes CI.
    • China has established 550 CIs and 1,172 Confucius Classrooms (CCs) housed in foreign institutions, in 162 countries.
    • As the Hanban explains on its website, following the experience of the British Council, Alliance Française and Germany’s Goethe-Institut, China began “establishing non-profit public institutions which aim to promote Chinese language and culture in foreign countries”.

    What is the presence of CIs in India?

    • India is reviewing the presence of CIs in seven universities, in addition to 54 MoUs on inter-school cooperation involving China, which is not connected to the CI programme.

    How have CIs been viewed around the world?

    • The CI arrangement has generated debate in the West, where some universities have closed the institutes amid concern over the influence of the Chinese government and it’s funding on host institutions.
    • Closures of some CIs have been reported in the United States, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Sweden.
    • While the closures in the West have made news, these cases still represent a minority. Faced with this backlash, China is now rebranding the programme.
    • Most of the 550 CIs and more than 1,000 CCs around the world are still active, with a presence spanning Africa, Central Asia, Latin America, and across Asia.

    What does it mean for India-China relations?

    • CIs and CCs had already been in India for more than 10 years.
    • Even prior to the border skirmishes, Indian authorities had viewed the CI arrangement somewhat warily.
    • Along with the new move to review CIs, Mandarin has been dropped from the list of foreign languages that can be taught in schools in the new National Education Policy.

    Not a perfect move

    • Recent moves by India shows that it cannot be business as usual with China after the border clash.
    • However, India’s long-term objectives are not clear.
    • De-emphasizing learning Mandarin is neither likely to impact China’s stance on the border nor help India in developing the expertise and resources it needs in dealing with China.

  • Pakistan’s new Political Map

    Recently Pakistani PM announced a new political map of Pakistan.

    Do you think that the recent launch of new political maps depicting Indian territories by Pakistan would make any difference on the international community’s stance on Kashmir?

    A chain reaction

    • With this, Pakistan became the third country to launch a new political map after India and Nepal did the same.
    • India had reiterated its territorial claims in J&K, and Ladakh with the new map; this triggered a reaction from Nepal which contested Indian claims in the Kalapani region of Pithoragarh district.

    What are the features of the new map?

    • The new political map of Pakistan has claimed the entire region of Jammu and Kashmir stretching all the way to the edge of Ladakh.
    • The map also claims Junagarh and Manavadar, a former princely State and territory, respectively that are part of present-day Gujarat.
    • Pakistan also claimed the entire territory and water bodies that fall in the Sir Creek region in the westernmost part of India.

    Defiance of old agreements

    • The territorial claims of Pakistan are, however, of a far greater extent and challenge many of the past understandings and treaties.
    • This clearly runs counter to the Simla Agreement which treated Kashmir as a bilateral matter.
    • It leaves out a claim line at the eastern end of J&K indicating Pakistan’s willingness to make China a third party in the Kashmir issue.

    How different is it from previous ones?

    • A similar map has been part of school textbooks of Pakistan for many years which highlights the territorial aspiration of Pakistan over the northern part of the subcontinent.
    • The document also maintains bits of reality on the ground as it shows the Line of Control in Kashmir in a red-dotted line.
    • The map may be used to provide legal cover for some of Islamabad’s territorial ambitions, especially in Kashmir and Sir Creek.

    A Cartographical warfare

    • The map is likely to lead to changes in Pakistan’s position on territorial disputes with India.
    • By demanding the entire J&K region, Pak is changing the main features of its Kashmir discourse as it includes the Jammu region prominently.
    • The inclusion of Junagarh and Manavadar opens fundamental issues of territorial sovereignty of India.
    • Manavadar, a princely territory, joined India on February 15, 1948, and Indian troops marched into Junagarh in September that year incorporating it into Indian Territory.
    • By normalizing Islamabad’s claims over these former princely territories, Pakistan is most likely to assert its rights over the former princely State of Hyderabad as well.

    What does Pakistan plan to gain by this exercise?

    • Sir Creek is a collection of water bodies that extend from the Arabian Sea deep inside the territory of Kutch and is rich in biodiversity and mangrove forests.
    • India’s position on Sir Creek is based on the Kutch arbitration case of 1966-69.
    • The new map can be used to reassert Pakistan’s claims regarding the Rann which it had lost in the arbitration conducted in Geneva.
    • India’s position regarding Sir Creek is based on the fact that the arbitration had granted the entire Rann and its marshy areas to India while leaving the solid land across the Rann to Pakistan.
    • By demanding the demarcation to shift towards the eastern bank, Pakistan appears to be going back also on the spirit of the Rann of Kutch arbitration where the overwhelming evidence of maps supported India’s claims.

    Are there any claims on its western borders?

    • The map is silent about territorial claims in the west and northwest of Pakistan.
    • It indicates Islamabad’s acceptance of the Durand Line as the border with Afghanistan.
    • The reality on the ground, however, shows problems that continue to haunt Pakistan on that front as well where law and order have been difficult to maintain because of free movement of armed fighters.
    • A deadly clash between Afghan civilians and Pakistani troops near its Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province is a usual discourse.
    • The resultant situation has placed Afghan and Pakistani troops in a confrontational position.

  • Back in news: Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

    Ahead of the crucial FATF meetings in October, Indian agencies plan to highlight its inaction in the Pulwama, 26/11 Mumbai attack and Daniel Pearl murder cases.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q.What is FATF? Discuss its role in combating global financial crimes and terror financing.

    What is the FATF?

    • FATF is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1989 on the initiative of the G7 to develop policies to combat money laundering.
    • The FATF Secretariat is housed at the OECD headquarters in Paris.
    • It holds three Plenary meetings in the course of each of its 12-month rotating presidencies.

    Why is Pakistan under its scanner?

    • Pakistan has been under the FATF’s scanner since June 2018, when it was put on the Grey List for terror financing and money laundering risks.
    • FATF and its partners such as the Asia Pacific Group (APG) are reviewing Pakistan’s processes, systems, and weaknesses on the basis of a standard matrix for anti-money laundering (AML) and combating the financing of terrorism (CFT) regime.
    • In June 2018, Pakistan gave a high-level political commitment to work with the FATF and APG to strengthen its AML/CFT regime, and to address its strategic counter-terrorism financing-related deficiencies.
    • Pakistan and the FATF then agreed on the monitoring of 27 indicators under a 10-point action plan, with specific deadlines.
    • The understanding was that the successful implementation of the action plan, and its physical verification by the APG, would lead the FATF to move Pakistan out of the Grey List.
    • However, Islamabad managed to satisfy the global watchdog over just five of them.

  • The South Asian-Gulf Migrant Crisis

    The pandemic has exacerbated the plight of the migrant workers in the Gulf countries. This article examines the issue and suggests the ways to deal with it.

    Context

    • The Covid-19 exposed the precarious conditions of migrant workers in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
    • Employers have used the crisis as an opportunity to retrench masses of migrant labourers without paying them wages or allowances.

    Impact of Covid-19

    • The South Asia-Gulf migration corridor is among the largest in the world.
    • The South Asian labour force forms the backbone of the Gulf economies.
    • The pandemic, the shutdown of companies, the tightening of borders, and the exploitative nature of the Kafala sponsorship system have all aggravated the miseries of South Asian migrant workers.
    • They have no safety net, social security protection, welfare mechanisms, or labour rights.
    • Now, thousands have returned home empty-handed from the host countries.
    • Indians constitute the largest segment of the South Asian workforce.
    • Gulf migration is predominantly a male-driven phenomenon.
    • A majority of the migrants are single men living in congested labour camps.
    • The COVID-19 spike in these labour camps has mainly been due to overcrowded and unsanitary living conditions.

    Nationalisation of labour in Gulf

    • Now, the movement for nationalisation of labour and the anti-migrant sentiment has peaked in Gulf countries.
    • Countries like Oman and Saudi Arabia have provided subsidies to private companies to prevent native lay-offs.
    • However, the nationalisation process is not going to be smooth given the stigma attached to certain jobs and the influence of ‘royal sheikh culture’.

    Challenges and solutions

    • The countries of origin are now faced with the challenge of rehabilitating, reintegrating, and resettling these migrant workers.
    • The Indian government has announced ‘SWADES’ for skill mapping of citizens returning from abroad.
    • But implementation seems uncertain.
    • Kerala, the largest beneficiary of international migration, has announced ‘Dream Kerala’ to utilise the multifaceted resources of the migrants.
    • Countries that are sending migrant workers abroad are caught between the promotion of migration, on the one hand, and the protection of migrant rights in increasingly hostile countries receiving migrants, on the other.

    Way forward

    • The need of the hour is a comprehensive migration management system for countries that send workers as well as those that receive them.
    • No South Asian country except Sri Lanka has an adequate migration policy.

    Conclusion

    The pandemic has given us an opportunity to voice the rights of South Asian migrants and to bring the South Asia-Gulf migration corridor within the ambit of SAARC, the ILO, and UN conventions.

    Original article:

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-south-asian-gulf-migrant-crisis/article32215146.ece

  • Russia-India-China: A triangle that is still relevant

    RIC engagement started on the promising note but the geopolitical changes over the last two decades have set the three countries on diverging paths. It is against this backdrop, the article articulates why RIC is still relevant.

    Background of RIC

    • The RIC dialogue commenced in the early 2000s.
    • At that time the three countries were positioning themselves for a transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order.
    •  It was not an anti-U.S. construct though.
    • The initial years of the RIC dialogue coincided with an upswing in India’s relations with Russia and China.
    • The 2003 decision to bring a political approach to India-China boundary dispute and to develop other cooperation, encouraged a multi-sectoral surge in relations.
    • An agreement in 2005, identifying political parameters applicable in an eventual border settlement, implicitly recognised India’s interests in Arunachal Pradesh.

    Growing India-U.S. relations

    • During the same period in which RIC dialogues took place, India’s relations with the U.S. surged.
    • This involved trade and investment, a landmark civil nuclear deal and a burgeoning defence relationship.
    • This rising relations with the U.S. met India’s objective of diversifying military acquisitions away from a near-total dependence on Russia.
    • The U.S. saw value in partnering with a democratic India in Asia as China was rapidly emerging as a challenger.

    How India-U.S. relations affected RIC

    • China went back on the 2005 agreement.
    • It launched the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and worked to undermine India’s influence in its neighbourhood.
    • And expanded its military and economic presence in the Indian Ocean.
    • As U.S.-Russia relations imploded in 2014 after the annexation/accession of Crimea.
    • Russia’s pushback against the U.S. included cultivating the Taliban in Afghanistan and enlisting Pakistan’s support for it.
    • The western campaign to isolate Russia drove it into a much closer embrace of China.

    Thus, the RIC claim of overlapping or similar approaches to key international issues, sounds hollow today. But it is still holds significance.

    Why RIC is still significant for India

    1) SCO

    • Central Asia is strategically located, bordering our turbulent neighbourhood.
    •  Pakistan’s membership of SCO and the potential admission of Iran and Afghanistan heighten the significance of the SCO for India.
    • It is important for India to shape the Russia-China dynamics in this region, to the extent possible.
    • The Central Asian countries have signalled they would welcome such a dilution of the Russia-China duopoly.
    • The ongoing India-Iran-Russia is an important initiative for achieving an effective Indian presence in Central Asia, alongside Russia and China.

    2) Significant bilateral relations

    • India’s defence and energy pillars of partnership with Russia remain strong.
    • Access to Russia’s abundant natural resources can enhance our materials security.
    • With China too, while the recent developments should accelerate our efforts to bridge the bilateral asymmetries, disengagement is not an option.

    3) The Indo-Pacific issue

    • For India, it is a geographic space of economic and security importance, in which a cooperative order should prevent the dominance of any external power.
    • China sees our Indo-Pacific initiatives as part of a U.S.-led policy of containing China.
    • Russia’s Foreign Ministry sees the Indo-Pacific as an American ploy to draw India and Japan into a military alliance against China and Russia.
    • India should focus on economic links with the Russian Far East and the activation of a Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor.
    • This may help persuade Russia that its interests in the Pacific are compatible with our interest in diluting Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

    4) Strategic autonomy of India

    • The current India-China stand-off has intensified calls for India to fast-track partnership with the U.S.
    • National security cannot be fully outsourced.
    • India’s quest for autonomy of action is based on its geographical realities, historical legacies and global ambitions.

    Consider the question “The changing geopolitical landscape should not dampen the importance of India’s engagement in the RIC (Russia-India-China) triangle. Comment.” 

    Conclusion

    India should continue its engagement in the RIC while keeping and protecting its interests.

  • Global coalition of democracies amid Chinese assertion

    In the recent speed Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, floated the idea of an ‘alliance of democracies’. This article discusses its implications for India.

    Two propositions on China

    • The US Secretary of State laid out two propositions.
    • One is that nearly five decades of US engagement with China have arrived at a dead-end.
    • Second is that the US can’t address the China challenge alone and called for collective action.
    • He mused on whether “it’s time for a new grouping of like-minded nations, a new alliance of democracies.”

    How it matters for India?

    • Both the propositions signal the breakdown of the relationship between the world’s two most important powers.
    • They also reflect on the need to create new frameworks to cope with emerging global challenges.
    • China, is a large neighbour of India and America, is India’s most important partner makes the new context rather different from the Cold War.

    Concerns for India in the propositions

    •  Many in Delhi would like to know if the current direction of China policy will endure if Joe Biden wins the presidential election in November.
    • India must pay close attention to the unfolding China debate in the US.
    • India also note the structural changes in American engagement with China over the last two decades.
    •  Delhi will certainly avoid calling the group proposed by US Secretary of State an “alliance”.
    • India would rather have it described as a “coalition of democracies”.

    Idea of ‘Coalition of democracies’

    • Over the last many years, India has become comfortable with the idea of a political partnership with the world’s leading democracies.
    • India also supported past US initiatives like-Clinton Administrations “Community of Democracies”, Bush Administrations democracy promotion fund at the UN.
    • Delhi has also welcomed President Trump’s initiative to convene an expanded gathering of the G-7 leaders.
    • The idea of democracies working together has an enduring appeal for the US.
    • India figures in this American vision is relatively new. So is Delhi’s readiness to reciprocate.

    Consider the question “In the ongoing geopolitical situation the U.S. has proposed the idea of ‘alliance of democracies’. Where does India feature in this vision and what are the implications of it for India.”

    Conclusion

    Constructing a global coalition of democracies will take much work and quite some time. But engaging with that initiative, amidst the rise and assertion of China, should open a whole range of new possibilities for Indian foreign and security policies.

    Original article:

    https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/us-india-democracy-china-cold-war-global-economy-6526409/