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Subject: International Relations

  • Foreign Policy Watch: United Nations

  • BRICS’ fight against COVID

    “BRICS” is an acronym coined by Jim O’Neill in 2001. In the start of the 21st century, BRICS seemed like the future economic powerhouse. Somehow this picture faded a little with time. This article shows the resilience and potential demonstrated by BRICS in times of Covid-19. It throws light on the latest initiatives of BRICS like New Development Bank. Finally what lies in the future for BRICS?

    The “I” in BRICS

    • India has reinforced its reputation as a rapidly emerging pharmacy of the world.

    • As the world’s largest producer of hydroxychloroquine, India has exported the drug to many countries like Russia, Brazil, Israel, U.S,  SAARC and Gulf nations.

    • Pharma-alliance: The above developments have set the stage for India to forge an inclusive BRICS-driven pharma alliance, which could also actively explore the production of vaccines.

    The “C” in BRICS

    • Despite allegations, China has responded strongly in containing the pandemic, leveraging its position as the workshop of the world.

    • China, using it’s manufacturing capabilities, responded to the disease by providing the “hardware” — masks, gloves, coveralls, shoe covers and testing kits — to hotspots across the globe.

    • Under its Health Silk Road doctrine, the Chinese are reaching out to two of the worst global hotspots, Italy and Iran.

    • China has also rolled out a medical air bridge for Europe.

    The “R” in BRICS

    • Despite fighting the virus at home, Russia too has sent its doctors and virologists overseas including an air mission to Italy.

    • At the request of U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia offered help in the form of medical experts and supplies.

    The “S” in BRICS

    • South Africa, the current rotating head of the African Union, is engaged in framing a pan-African response to COVID-19.

    The “B” in BRICS

    • Only Brazil’s response may need a course correction.

    • In Brazil’s case resistance to breaking the infection chains through travel bans, lockdowns, isolation and testing appear to have led to an infection surge.

    Where does the NDB’s model fit in this picture?

    • The New Development Bank of the BRICS has already demonstrated the way forward to allocate financial resources to combat COVID-19.

    • In April, NDB announced that it is going to disburse a $1 billion emergency loan to China, and subsequently to India, South Africa and Brazil.

    • The NDB had the financial heft to provide $10 billion in “crisis-related assistance” to BRICS member countries.

    The next step for BRICS –  COORDINATION

    • BRICS has demonstrated their comparative strengths as providers of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR).

    • BRICS countries now need to pool and coordinate their efforts, in partnership with the WHO, and Europe and North America, as part of a global assault on the virus.

    • BRICS countries also need to earmark resources and assets to combat a whole range of natural disasters, with special focus on the emerging economies and the global south.

    • The NDB’s financial model demonstrated to address the pandemic, can now become a template to address natural disasters.

    Bodies like BRICS have remained the favourite child of UPSC. Be it questions in prelims or mains. A question based on the regional grouping could be asked by the UPSC, for ex- “BRICS nations have proved to be more than merely an economic grouping. In light of the above statement, discuss the Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) potential of the BRICS countries.”

    Conclusion

    BRICS in future can leverage the coordination among them to work on finding the vaccine and also build on the experience gathered from the pandemic to form a disaster response policy in the future.

    Back2Basics: BRICS

    • BRICS is the acronym coined for an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
    • Originally the first four were grouped as “BRIC” (or “the BRICs”), before the induction of South Africa in 2010.
    • The BRICS members are known for their significant influence on regional affairs; all are members of G20.
    • Since 2009, the BRICS nations have met annually at formal summits. China hosted the 9th BRICS summit in Xiamen on September 2017, while Brazil hosted the most recent 11th BRICS summit on 13-14 November 2019.

    New Development Bank and the Fortaleza Declaration

    • During the sixth BRICS Summit in Fortaleza (2014), the leaders signed the Agreement establishing the New Development Bank (NDB).
    • In the Fortaleza Declaration, the leaders stressed that the NDB will strengthen cooperation among BRICS and will supplement the efforts of multilateral and regional financial institutions for global development, thus contributing to collective commitments for achieving the goal of strong, sustainable and balanced growth.
    • The bank was established in July 2015 by the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).
    • The aim of the bank is to mobilize funding for infrastructure and sustainable development.
    • Its ownership structure is unique, as the BRICS countries each have an equal share and no country has any veto power.
    • In this sense, the bank is a physical expression of the desire of emerging markets to play a bigger role in global governance.
    • NDB was created to help fill the funding gap in the BRICS economies and was intended to grow its global scope over time.
    • The bank, with its subscribed capital base of US$50bn, is now poised to become a meaningful additional source of long-term finance for infrastructure in its member countries.

  • Significance of UK labor party’s remarks on Kashmir

    The UK Labour party’s newly appointed leader Keir Starmer said Kashmir was a bilateral issue for India and Pakistan to resolve peacefully. These remarks were seen as an attempt to re-position his party’s stance on Kashmir and reach out to the Indian community in Britain.

    What was the Labour party’s stance before?

    • The party’s relations with the Indian diaspora have been strained, especially after its delegates passed an emergency policy motion in September 2019 criticizing India’s decision to revoke Article 370.
    • It maintained that the people of Kashmir should have self-determination rights.

    Why is the Labour Party’s relationship with the Indian diaspora important?

    • Indians are the largest ethnic community in the UK, numbering over 1.5 million people or accounting for over 2.3 per cent of the country’s population.
    • Therefore, they form a significant vote share for any party.
    • In the 2017 general elections, 50 per cent of the Indians living in the UK had voted for Labour.

    India in Labour Party (UK) manifestos

    Over the years, issues relating to India have found various mention in many election manifestos in the UK:

    • 1945: India’s freedom had been a campaign promise of the Labour party, its manifesto pledging “the advancement of India to responsible self-government”.
    • 1947: The Indian Independence Act, 1947, was passed when Attlee was Prime Minister.
    • 1949: all the Commonwealth Prime Ministers welcomed the free choice of India, Pakistan and Ceylon to join the Commonwealth as full and equal members.
    • 2019: Issue a formal apology for the Jallianwala Bagh massacre.

  • Study on China dams brings the Brahmaputra into focus

    A new study highlighting the impact of China’s dams on the Mekong River has raised fresh questions on whether dams being built on other rivers that originate in China, such as the Brahmaputra, may similarly impact countries downstream.

    Make a note of:

    1) Tributaries of R. Brahmaputra

    2) Countries swept by R. Mekong

    3) Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (reminds us seeing R. Mekong)

    China’s dams on the Mekong River

    • The Mekong flows from China to Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam.
    • The Mekong River Commission, which comprises Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam, has said more scientific evidence was needed to establish whether dams caused a 2019 drought.
    • While China’s southwestern Yunnan province which usually has above-average rainfall, there was “severe lack of water in the lower Mekong.

    Mekong dams raise some questions

    • The Mekong study was not conclusive on the question of how China’s dams had affected the quantity of flows.
    • To state that the basin had less water because of activities in China alone is misleading, mainly because that only considers the water flowing into the lower basin at one station in Thailand.
    • The study did not consider other dams and water-use along the course of the river.
    • The lower basin isn’t entirely dependent on flows from China but also receives water from tributaries in all four countries, which the study did not account for.

    Concerns for India

    • India does not have a water-sharing agreement with China, but both sides share hydrological data.
    • India has long expressed concerns over dam-building on the Brahmaptura.
    • In 2015, China operationalised its first hydropower project at Zangmu, while three other dams at Dagu, Jiexu and Jiacha are being developed.
    • India need to raise the issue of river waters in the Brahmaputra with China, as that appears to be the only methodology to ensure what happened on Mekong does not happen on Brahmaputra.

    A management problem

    • The dams are not likely to impact the quantity of the Brahmaputra’s flows because they are only storing water for power generation.
    • Moreover, the Brahmaputra is not entirely dependent on upstream flows and an estimated 35% of its basin is in India.
    • However, India concerns more about activity in China affecting quality, ecological balance, and flood management.

  • India’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations

    Syed Akbaruddin, a fiery spokesperson, who is credited with effectively presenting India’s position on a range of crucial issues at the UN headquarters in New York for the last several years, has retired. A 1985-batch IFS officer T S Tirumurti, currently serving as Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs will succeed him.

    Permanent Missions to the United Nations

    • The Permanent Mission is the diplomatic mission that every member state deputies to the UN, and is headed by a Permanent Representative, who is also referred to as the “UN ambassador”.
    • Article 1 (7) of the Vienna Convention on the Representation of States provides for a permanent mission.
    • UN Permanent Representatives are assigned to the UN headquarters in New York City, and can also be appointed to other UN offices in Geneva, Vienna, and Nairobi.
    • The Mission in New York is housed in a 27-story building designed by the noted architect Charles Correa in 1993 and is decorated with MF Hussain paintings.

    The Indian Permanent Mission at the UN

    • According to the website of the Permanent Mission of India in New York, there are currently eight Indians in senior leadership positions at the UN at the levels of Under-Secretary-General and Assistant Secretary-General.
    • The first Indian delegates at the UN included statesman Arcot Ramasamy Mudaliar, and freedom fighters Hansa Mehta, Vijayalakshmi Pandit, and Lakshmi Menon.
    • Mehta and Pandit were among the 15 women members of the Indian Constituent Assembly.
    • India was among the select members of the United Nations that signed the United Nations Declaration at Washington on January 1, 1942.
    • India also participated in the historic UN Conference of International Organization at San Francisco from April 25 to June 26, 1945.

  • Afghan peace and India’s elbow room

    The article discusses India’s exclusion from the Afghan peace process. As India seeks to fight back its exclusion there are certain issues that need to be addressed. India’s reluctance to enter into talks with the Taliban in one such issue, which needs a rethink. And there are several areas in which India needs to continue working like-the goodwill in Afghanistan, participation in assistance work, bringing together the major leaders in that country.

    India left out of the meeting on peace in Afghanistan

    • Earlier this month, the United Nations Secretariat held a meeting of what it calls the “6+2+1” group on regional efforts to support peace in Afghanistan.
    • The group includes six neighbouring countries: China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; global players the United States and Russia, and Afghanistan itself.
    • India was conspicuous by its absence from the meeting on April 16, given its historical and strategic ties with Afghanistan.
    • This has not happened for the first time, India was left out form talks similarly in 2001 and 2010.
    • In both 2001 and 2010, however, India fought back its exclusion
    • At the Bonn agreement of 2010, India played a major role in Northern Alliance accepting Hamid Karzai as the Chairman of the interim arrangement that replaced the Taliban regime.
    • After the 2010 conference, New Delhi redoubled its efforts with Kabul, and in 2011 India signed the historic Strategic Partnership Agreement, which was Afghanistan’s first such agreement with any country.

    Reasons for not inviting India

    • In 2020, the reason given for keeping India out of regional discussions on Afghanistan was ostensibly that it holds no “boundary” with Afghanistan.
    • But in fact, it is because New Delhi has never announced its support for the U.S.-Taliban peace process.
    • As planners in South Block now consider their next steps in Afghanistan, they must fight back against the idea that any lasting solution in Afghanistan can be discussed without India in the room, while also studying the reasons for such exclusions.

    Following are the issues that Indian must consider and act on as it seeks to fight back its exclusion from the peace talks.

    India’s position on Afghan-led peace process and reality

    • India’s resistance to publicly talking to the Taliban has made it an awkward interlocutor at any table.
    • Its position that only an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, and Afghan-controlled process can be allowed is a principled one but has no takers.
    • The Ashraf Ghani government does not lead, own or control the reconciliation process today, comprising the U.S.-Taliban negotiation for an American troops withdrawal, and intra-Afghan talks on power-sharing.
    • The U.S.-Taliban peace deal means that the Taliban, will become more potent as the U.S. withdraws soldiers from the country.
    • Taliban will hold more sway in the inter-Afghan process as well, as the U.S. withdraws funding for the government in Kabul.

    Two effects of India’s position

    • New Delhi’s decision to put all its eggs in the Ghani basket has had a two-fold effect:
    • 1) Its voice in the reconciliation process has been limited.
    • 2) It has weakened India’s position with other leaders of the deeply divided democratic setup in Kabul such as the former chief executive Abdullah Abdullah.

    India should not let its diplomatic strength weaken

    • India painstakingly built up its presence inside Afghanistan since 2001.
    • This presence is being threatened anew by terror groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).
    • ISKP is believed to be backed by Pakistan’s establishment.
    • Intercepts showed that the brutal attack, in March, that killed 25 at a gurudwara in Kabul was meant for the embassy in Kabul.
    • The government cleared out both of its consulates this month.
    • While the government has said that the novel coronavirus pandemic prompted its decision to clear out both consulates.
    • The truth is that a full security reassessment is under way for them.
    • Either way, India’s diplomatic strength in Afghanistan should not appear to be in retreat just when it is needed the most.

    Goodwill in Afghanistan and damage caused due to CAA

    • The government must also consider the damage done to the vast reservoir of goodwill India enjoys in Afghanistan because of recent events in the country, especially the controversy over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.
    • The building blocks of that goodwill are India’s assistance in infrastructure projects, health care, education, trade and food security, and also in the liberal access to Afghans to study, train and work in India.
    • Above all, it is India’s example as a pluralistic, inclusive democracy that inspires many.
    • Afghanistan’s majority-Muslim citizens have felt cut out of the move to offer fast track citizenship to only Afghan minorities.
    • The damage was also done by reports of anti-Muslim rhetoric and incidents of violence in India.

    Regain upper hand in the narrative in Afghanistan

    • While many of these are problems of perception, New Delhi must move swiftly to regain the upper hand in the narrative in Afghanistan.
    • India has provided the assistance of more than $3 billion in projects.
    • Bilateral trade is about $1 billion.
    • A $20 billion projected development expenditure of an alternate route through Chabahar.
    • And support to the Afghan National Army, bureaucrats, doctors and other professionals for training in India should assure it a leading position in Afghanistan’s regional formulation.
    • Three major projects along with hundreds of small development projects (of schools, hospitals and water projects) have cemented that position in Afghan hearts nationwide, regardless of Pakistan’s attempts to undermine that position, particularly in the South.
    • The three major projects include 1) the Afghan Parliament, 2) the Zaranj-Delaram Highway, 3)the Afghanistan-India Friendship Dam (Salma dam).

     Pursue opportunities to fulfil its role in the peace efforts

    • India must also pursue opportunities to fulfil its role in the peace efforts in Afghanistan, starting with efforts to bridge the Ghani-Abdullah divide.
    • India could also play role in bringing together other major leaders with whom India has built ties for decades.
    • It would be an utter tragedy if the Taliban were to enter the government in Kabul as the U.S. deal envisages, to find the opposing front collapse as it did in 1996.
    • An understanding between Iran and the U.S. on Afghanistan is necessary for a lasting peace as well, and India could play a mediatory part, as it did in order for the Chabahar project.

    Return of the Taliban has several implications for India. In 2013, the UPSC asked a question related to developments in Afghanistan against the backdrop of the proposed withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force. Similarly, a question based on the latest development can be asked, for ex-“The return of Taliban after the US-Taliban deal in Afghanistan is fraught with major security implications for the countries in the region. Examine in the light of the fact that India is faced with a plethora of challenges and needs to safeguard its own strategic interests.”

    Use UN call for peace to put hostilities with Pakistan on hold

    • Finally, New Delhi should use the United Nations’s call for a pause in conflicts during the novel coronavirus pandemic, to ensure a hold on hostilities with Pakistan.
    • This will be even more difficult than it sounds given the abyss that bilateral relations have fallen into in the past year over Kashmir.

    Conclusion

    It would be a mistake, at this point, to tie all India’s support in only to Kabul or the Ghani government; the government must strive to endure that its aid and assistance is broad-based, particularly during the novel coronavirus pandemic to centres outside the capital, even if some lie in areas held by the Taliban.

  • Common problems of South Asia call for collective efforts against Covid-19

    The article discusses the various common features shared by the South Asians countries. One of them is the poor public healthcare infrastructure. So, the pandemic offers an opportunity to make the required policy changes. It also offers the opportunity for cooperation among the regional countries in dealing with Covid-19. These issues are discussed in the article.

    South Asian countries: Common features, common problems

    • South Asia, one of the world’s most populous regions, is also affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • Both Karachi and Mumbai, among the world’s most densely populated cities, where we live and work, are being overwhelmed by cases.
    • While the death rate in these places may not be as alarming as in Europe and the U.S., the collateral damage of the lockdown is taking its own toll.
    • Common features of South Asia: While there are many differences amongst the countries of the region, there are also common features which impact the health of its people, some of them a result of our shared cultural and geopolitical history.
    • The collective experience of dealing with COVID-19 may provide important lessons, which transcend national boundaries.

    Poor healthcare system: a common problem

    • South Asian countries have invested very little in health.
    • This is reflected in our abysmally low health parameters.
    • It is interesting that Britain, which formulated our health policies before independence, went on to form one of the world’s strongest public health systems, the National Health Service.
    • Whereas its South Asian colonies chose to stray from that path.
    • This resulted in a dysfunctional public healthcare
    • Governments have also relinquished what ought to have been their primary duty, of health care provision, to the private sector.
    • Having become an industry, the focus of healthcare in the private sector is on profit rather than on people’s needs.
    • High treatment costs in private sector: Whilst privatisation has brought in advanced technology and expertise, the high costs of treatment in the private sector have resulted in impoverishment as most of the population has no insurance or third-party coverage, and pays out of pocket.
    • The sector has also been poorly regulated.
    • The result is that it is responsible for several excesses in its quest for profit.

    Other common features of the region

    • Hunger, malnutrition, poor sanitation and large-scale migration are features of this region.
    • Existing infectious diseases like TB, HIV and malaria have been worsened by emerging ones like dengue, chikungunya, healthcare-associated infections and antimicrobial resistance.
    • The region is also an epicentre of an epidemic of lifestyle diseases.
    • Conflicts and expenditure on defence: Constant internal and external conflicts in South Asia not only consume a large portion of national budgets but also divert the attention of the public and policymakers from healthcare needs.
    • Defence budgets take the largest share of national budgets, and obviously adversely impact social sector spending.
    • Underfunded public health is going to hinder region’s capacity to fight COVID-19.
    • The central role of religion: Religion continues to occupy a central space in the society and politics of the region.
    • Though it offers succour to many, religious dogma can impact health policy and health-seeking behaviour.
    • The refusal of devotees across Pakistan to avoid religious congregations during Ramadan despite the government’s orders has significantly fed the community spread of the virus.

    Opportunity for policy changes to address healthcare problems

    • COVID-19 has forced us to seriously reflect on our healthcare system.
    • This is welcome if it results in policy change.
    • Healthcare professionals and bodies must seize this opportunity to push our respective governments to address it seriously and not just as a pre-election strategy.
    • A long-term commitment to universal health care, with not only a national but also a regional and global focus, is needed.

    A question on this theme could be asked by the UPSC, for instance, “South Asian countries share the common problem of poor public healthcare infrastructure, which increases their vulnerability to the pandemic. But corona pandemic also offers an opportunity to improve the shortcoming in the health infrastructure and cooperation among the SAARC countries. Comment.”

    Regional strategy and cooperation needed

    • The SAARC heads of state have already offered help to one another.
    • A regional strategy has a better chance of controlling the pandemic than isolated national-level efforts.
    • The pooling of resources and sharing data may not only help flatten the curve but perhaps even develop into longer-term efforts towards effective treatment.
    • It is being speculated that our populations are behaving differently; that the BCG vaccine may be a protective influence.
    • Joint research into such areas can be a unifying point for SAARC.

    Conclusion

    It is in our collective interest to look at health security and not just national security. By the accident of their birth, South Asians have endured a lot. They merit better.

     

  • New global order in post-Covid-19 world

    The article discusses the changes that the world will experience in the global order in the aftermath of Covid-19. The major changes will be on the economic and geopolitical front. Various changes are discussed in the article. We have read some article on the same topic and the basic theme is the same. Role of China and the US, failure of the international institutions are some of the common themes.

    Failure of international institutions

    • The existing international institutions such as the United Nations, the United Nations Security Council and the World Health Organization (WHO) are seen to have failed to measure up to the grave challenge posed by the pandemic.
    • The UN Security Council is under attack for being slow in dealing with a situation that appears, at least on the surface, far graver than any military threat in recent decades.
    • The WHO has been tarred with the charge of bias and of grossly underestimating the nature of the epidemic.
    • That prestigious global institution should have been singled out for attack at this time speaks volumes about the mood prevailing across the world.

    Economic shock

    • There are many other aspects of the COVID-19 crisis that will drastically impact the globe.
    • Negative growth: On the economic front, the World Bank has already predicted negative growth for most nations. India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal year has been put at 5% to 2.8%.
    • Contraction of the economy and the loss of millions of jobs across all segments will further complicate this situation.

    One of the most important factors that we realised in the corona crisis in the role of the state. Take note of this factor. A question can be asked on the role of the state, for ex. “The COVID-19 pandemic has brought into focus the important role of the state in our lives. comment.”

    The important role of the state in focus

    • What is likely to change even more dramatically are certain other aspects relating to political management and security. Both terms are set to gain new meanings.
    • The role of the state as an enforcer of public goodwill almost certainly become greatly enhanced.
    • The dominant imperative would be to not put limits on the role of the state even where the situation may not be as grave as the present one.
    • Many pieces of legislation of yesteryears that had been relegated to the archives — they were perceived to be anachronistic in a modern democratic set-up — may get a new lease of life.
    • Some pieces of legislation such as the Disaster Management Act already reflect this reality today.
    • Other pieces of legislation could follow in its wake.
    • This trend is already becoming evident to some extent across the world. Europe has shown a willingness to sacrifice personal liberties in favour of greater state control.
    • Post COVID-19, the world may have to pay a heavy price in terms of loss of liberty. An omnipotent state could well become a reality.

    Following are the changes in geo-economics and geo-politics that post-covid world would see.

    Role of China under scrutiny

    • Far-reaching changes can also be anticipated in the realm of geo-economics and geopolitics. The world needs to prepare for a sea change.
    • One nation, viz. China, is presently seeking to take advantage of and benefit from the problems faced by the rest of the world in the wake of the epidemic.
    • Negligence on the part of China: China remains totally unfazed by the stigma that the current world pandemic owes a great deal to its negligence.
    • More importantly, it is seeking to convert its ‘failure’ into a significant opportunity.
    • This is Sino-centrism at its best, or possibly its worst.
    • China now seeks to benefit from the fact of its ‘early recovery’.
    • It wants to take advantage of the travails of the rest of the world, by using its manufacturing capability to its geo-economic advantage.
    • Seeking geopolitical advantage: Simultaneously, it seeks to shift from being a Black Swan (responsible for the pandemic), to masquerade as a White one, by offering medical aid and other palliatives to several Asian and African countries to meet their current pandemic threat.
    • In turn, it seeks to gain a geopolitical advantage by this action.

    Hostile takeover bids by China

    • There are enough reports of China’s intentions to acquire financial assets and stakes in banks and companies across the world amid crisis.
    • Shares in HDFC: India seems to have woken up only recently to this threat after the Peoples’ Bank of China acquired a 1% stake in India’s HDFC.
    • Across the world, meanwhile, the clamour against China’s hostile takeover bids is becoming stronger.
    • Several countries apart from India, such as Australia and Germany, have begun to restrict Chinese foreign direct investment in companies and financial institutions in their countries.
    • These countries recognised the inherent danger of a possible Chinese hostile takeover of their critical assets.

    China taking advantage of RCEP and Belt and Road initiative

    • Restricting hostile takeovers may not be adequate to checkmate China.
    • It is poised to dominate the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
    • Which will enable China to exploit market access across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, East Asian nations, Australia and New Zealand.
    • Together with its Belt and Road Initiative, China is ostensibly preparing the way for a China-centric multilateral globalisation framework.

    The diminishing role of the US’s and Europe

    • The geopolitical fallout of this pandemic could be still more serious.
    • One distinct possibility is that COVID-19 would effectively put paid to the existing global order that has existed since the late 1940s.
    • The United States which is already being touted in some circles as a ‘failing’ state, will be compelled to cede ground.
    • Weakened economically and politically after COVID-19 has ravaged the nation, the U.S.’s capacity to play a critical role in world affairs is certain to diminish.
    • The main beneficiary of this geopolitical turnaround is likely to be China, a country that does not quite believe in playing by the rules of international conduct.
    • Weakened Europe: Europe, in the short and medium-term, will prove incapable of defining and defending its common interests, let alone having any influence in world affairs.
    • Role of Germany: Germany, which may still retain some of its present strength, is already turning insular.
    • Both France and the post-Brexit United Kingdom will be out of the reckoning as of now.

    Problems in West Asia and the possible role of Israel

    • In West Asia, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are set to face difficult times.
    • The oil price meltdown will aggravate an already difficult situation across the region.
    • There may be no victors, but Israel may be one country that is in a position to exploit this situation to its advantage.

    India: Economic and geopolitical challenges

    • In the meantime, the economic downturn greatly reduces India’s room for manoeuvre.
    • In South Asia, India faces the prospect of being isolated, with the Chinese juggernaut winning Beijing new friends and contacts across a region deeply impacted by the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • Likewise, India’s leverage in West Asia — already greatly diminished — will suffer further.
    • With oil prices going down and the Indian expatriate community (who are among the hardest hit by this downturn) out on a limb.
    • Reduction in remittances: Many of the latter may seek repatriation back to the host country, substantially reducing the inflow of foreign funds to India from the region.

    A question based on the changes in the global order in the post-pandemic world could be asked by the UPSC, for ex- “In the post-Covid-19 world, we are experiencing several changes. What are the changes in the geo-politics that are likely to affect India’s interests?”

    Conclusion

    In the post-Covid-19 world, we are about to see many changes on the economic and geopolitical front. India should prepare itself for the emerging challenges on various fronts.

  • World at the edge of a new nuclear arms race

    The focus of this article is on the possible revival of the nuclear arms race among the US, China and Russia. In this context, the purpose and present status of the CTBT, which was aimed at ending the nuclear arms race is also discussed. The article ends by predicting the beginning of new arms race and possible demise of the CTBT.

    What were the findings of US compliance report?

    • State Department Report: In mid-April, a report was issued by the United States State Department on “Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments (Compliance Report).
    • Tests with low yields by China: The report raised concerns that China might be conducting nuclear tests with low yields at its Lop Nur test site.
    • And these tests are conducted in violation of its Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban treaty (CTBT)
    • Violation by Russia: The U.S. report also claims that Russia has conducted nuclear weapons experiments that produced a nuclear yield and were inconsistent with ‘zero yield’ understanding underlying the CTBT.
    • Though it was uncertain about how many such experiments had been conducted by Russia.
    • Russia and China have rejected the U.S.’s claims.
    • New nuclear arms race: With growing rivalry among major powers the report is a likely harbinger of a new nuclear arms race.
    • The demise of CTBT: This new nuclear arms race would also mark the demise of the CTBT that came into being in 1996 but has failed to enter into force even after a quarter-century.

    Background of the CTBT

    • Test ban-first step: For decades, a ban on nuclear testing was seen as the necessary first step towards curbing the nuclear arms race but Cold War politics made it impossible.
    • A Partial Test Ban Treaty was concluded in 1963 banning underwater and atmospheric tests but this only drove testing underground.
    • By the time the CTBT negotiations began in Geneva in 1994, global politics had changed. The Cold War had ended and the nuclear arms race was over.
    • The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, or the USSR, had broken up and its principal testing site, Semipalatinsk, was in Kazakhstan (Russia still had access to Novaya Zemlya near the Arctic circle).
    • In 1991, Russia declared a unilateral moratorium on testing, followed by the U.S. in 1992.
    • By this time, the U.S. had conducted 1,054 tests and Russia, 715.
    • Negotiations were often contentious.
    • Eventually, the U.S. came up with the idea of defining the “comprehensive test ban” as a “zero yield” test ban that would prohibit supercritical hydro-nuclear tests but not sub-critical hydrodynamic nuclear tests.

    Make note of the points mentioned under “entry-into-force” provision given below. The reasons for India’s withdrawal from the negotiation are important from the UPSC perspective.

    “Entry-into-force” provision and India’s objections to it

    • Another controversy arose regarding the entry-into-force provisions (Article 14) of the treaty.
    • Why India withdrew from negotiations? After India’s proposals for anchoring the CTBT in a disarmament framework did not find acceptance, in June 1996, India announced its decision to withdraw from the negotiations.
    • Unhappy at this turn, the U.K., China and Pakistan took the lead in revising the entry-into-force provisions.
    • What is “entry-into-force” provision? The new provisions listed 44 countries by name whose ratification was necessary for the treaty to enter into force and included India.
    • India’s objection: India protested that this attempt at arm-twisting violated a country’s sovereign right to decide if it wanted to join a treaty but was ignored.
    • The CTBT was adopted by a majority vote and opened for signature.
    • Of the 44 listed countries, to date, only 36 have ratified the treaty.
    • Signed but not ratified: China, Egypt, Iran, Israel and the U.S. have signed but not ratified.
    • China maintains that it will only ratify it after the U.S. does so but the Republican-dominated Senate had rejected it in 1999.
    • Not signed, not ratified: In addition, North Korea, India and Pakistan are the three who have not signed.
    • All three have also undertaken tests after 1996; India and Pakistan in May 1998 and North Korea six times between 2006 and 2017.
    • The CTBT has therefore not entered into force and lacks legal authority.

    An organisation to verify CTBT

    • Even though CTBT has not entered into force, an international organisation to verify the CTBT was established in Vienna with a staff of about 230 persons and an annual budget of $130 million.
    • Ironically, the U.S. is the largest contributor with a share of $17 million.
    • The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) runs an elaborate verification system built around a network of over 325 seismic, radionuclide, infrasound and hydroacoustic (underwater) monitoring stations.
    • The CTBTO has refrained from backing the U.S.’s allegations.

    The revival of the nuclear arms race

    • End of the unipolar world for the US: The key change from the 1990s is that the S.’s unipolar moment is over and strategic competition among major powers is back.
    • The U.S. now identifies Russia and China as ‘rivals’.
    • Its Nuclear Posture Review asserts that the U.S. faces new nuclear threats because both Russia and China are increasing their reliance on nuclear weapons.
    • The U.S., therefore, has to expand the role of its nuclear weapons and have a more usable and diversified nuclear arsenal.
    • The Trump administration has embarked on a 30-year modernisation plan with a price tag of $1.2 trillion, which could go up over the years.
    • Concerns of Russia and China: Russia and China have been concerned about the U.S.’s growing technological lead particularly in missile defence and conventional global precision-strike capabilities.
    • Russia has responded by exploring hypersonic delivery systems and theatre systems while China has embarked on a modernisation programme to enhance the survivability of its arsenal which is considerably smaller.
    • Cyber capabilities being increased: In addition, both countries are also investing heavily in offensive cyber capabilities.
    • The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) limits U.S. and Russian arsenals but will expire in 2021
    • And U.S. President Donald Trump has already indicated that he does not plan to extend New START.
    • Instead, the Trump administration would like to bring China into some kind of nuclear arms control talks.
    • But China has avoided such talks by pointing to the fact that the S. and Russia still account for over 90% of global nuclear arsenals.

    Context of the US backtracking from negotiated agreements

    • Both China and Russia have dismissed the U.S.’s allegations.
    • They pointed to the Trump administration’s backtracking from other negotiated agreements such as the Iran nuclear deal or the U.S.-Russia Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF)
    • Tensions with China are already high with trade and technology disputes, militarisation in the South China Sea and most recently, with the novel coronavirus pandemic.
    • The U.S. could also be preparing the ground for resuming testing at Nevada.

    In the context of the latest developments, a question can be asked by the UPSC, for ex- “In the light of the latest developments on the global platform which are pointing to the revival of the nuclear arms race, how far India’s decision to not sign the CTBT is justified?”

    Conclusion

    New rivalries have already emerged. Resumption of nuclear testing may signal the demise of the ill-fated CTBT, marking the beginnings of a new nuclear arms race. 

    Back2Basics: What is “zero-yield test?”

    • This means that the agreement prohibits all nuclear explosions that produce a self-sustaining, supercritical chain reaction of any kind whether for weapons or peaceful purposes.
    • The decision not to include a specific definition of scope in the Treaty was a deliberate decision by the negotiating parties, including the United States, made to ensure that no loopholes were created by including a highly technical and specific list of what specific activities were and were not permitted under the Treaty.
    • A thorough review of the history of the Treaty negotiation process, as well as statements by world leaders and the negotiators of the agreement, shows that all states understand and accept the CTBT as a “zero-yield” treaty.

  • What’s behind diplomatic tensions in the South China Sea?

    In the middle of the global coronavirus pandemic, China has been busy increasing its presence in the South China Sea.

    The dispute

    • In the past few years, China has stepped up military aggression and has created artificial islands for military and economic purposes in the South China Sea.
    • This has drawn criticism from neighbouring countries and other western powers.
    • Soon after, Chinese and Australian warships also entered the fray.
    • Following the arrival of American warships, regional observers expressed concern that the US’s presence may only serve to heighten tensions.
    • The US has no territorial claims in the South China Sea but is known to send its naval force into the waters each time there are provocative developments in the waters, particularly angering China.

    Map observations in the South China Sea are must-dos for the CSE aspirants. UPSC often toggles in the Middle East,  West and Central Asian region. This year we can expect a different region for a  map-based question.

    Why in news now?

    China’s advent for islands

    • This past week, Beijing unilaterally renamed 80 islands and other geographical features in the area, drawing criticism from neighbouring countries who have also laid claim to the same territory.
    • The focus of Chinese acquisitory attention is the two disputed archipelagos of the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands in the middle of the South China Sea waters.
    • They lie between the territory of Vietnam and the Philippines.
    • If the dispute were to aggravate, Asia-Pacific researchers believe it could have serious consequences for diplomatic relations and stability in the region.

    What is the Spratly Islands dispute about?

    • There has been an ongoing territorial dispute between China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia concerning the ownership of the Spratly Islands archipelago and nearby geographical features like corals reefs, cays etc.
    • Since 1968, these nations have engaged in varying kinds of military occupation of the islands and the surrounding waters, with the exception of Brunei, that has contained its objections to the use of its maritime waters for commercial fishing.
    • Although the Spratly Islands are largely uninhabited, there is a possibility that they may have large reserves of untapped natural resources.
    • However, due to the ongoing dispute, there have been few initiatives to explore the scale of these reserves.

    Quest for Oil

    • Over the years, US government agencies have claimed that there is little to no oil and natural gas in these islands, but these reports have done little to reduce the territorial dispute.
    • In the 1970s, oil was discovered in neighbouring islands, specifically off the coast of Palawan. This discovery ramped up territorial claims by these countries.

    What is the Paracel Islands dispute about?

    • The Paracel Islands dispute is slightly more complex. This archipelago is a collection of 130 islands and coral reefs and is located in the South China Sea, almost equidistant from China and Vietnam.
    • Beijing says that references to the Paracel Islands as a part of China sovereign territory can be found in 14th century writings from the Song Dynasty.
    • Vietnam on the other hand, says that historical texts from at least the 15th century show that the islands were a part of its territory.
    • These islands also find mention in records starting from the 16th century by explorers who led expeditions to the East.
    • Colonial powers of the French-Indochina further accelerated the tensions with regard to the Paracel Islands due to their colonial policies in the 20th century.
    • By 1954, tensions had dramatically increased between China and Vietnam over the archipelago.

    What is the most recent dispute about?

    • Recent China established new administrative districts on both Spratly and Paracel Islands.
    • It also renamed those 80 islands, reefs and other geographical features around the two archipelagos with Chinese names.
    • The last time China had unilaterally engaged in a similar initiative was in 1983 where 287 geographical features had been renamed in the disputed chain of islands.