💥Join UPSC 2027,2028 Mentorship (August Batch) + XFactor Notes & Microthemes PDF
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

Subject: International Relations

  • Diamer-Bhasha Dam in Pak-occupied Kashmir (PoK)

    Pakistan government has signed a contract with a joint venture of a Chinese state-run firm for the construction of the Diamer-Bhasha dam in the PoK.

    Make a note of major dams in India along with the rivers, terrain, major Wildlife sanctuaries and national parks incident to these rivers.

    Diamer-Bhasha Dam

    • Diamer-Bhasha Dam is a concreted-filled gravity dam, in the preliminary stages of construction, on the River Indus between Kohistan district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Diamer district in Gilgit Baltistan region of PoK.
    • The dam will have a gross storage capacity of 8.1 Million Acre Feet (MAF) and power generation capacity of 4500 MW.
    • The eight Million Acre Feet (MAF) reservoir with 272-metre height will be the tallest roller compact concrete (RCC) dam in the world.
    • It will have a spillway, 14 gates and five outlets for flushing out silt.
    • The diversion system involves two tunnels and a diversion canal — all three having 1 km length each.
    • The bridge — a box girder structure — under the contract will be constructed downstream of the dam structure while the 21MW power plant will be built to meet the energy requirements of the project during construction.

    Why is this dam being built?

    • The project is designed to serve as the main storage dam of the country, besides Mangla and Tarbela dams, and its storage would be helpful for alleviating flood losses.
    • The project is estimated to help alleviate acute irrigation shortage in the Indus basin irrigation system caused by progressive siltation of the existing reservoirs.
    • It aims to reduce the intensity, quantum and duration of floods and reduce the magnitude and frequency of floods in the River Indus downstream.

    Issues with the Dam

    • The dam is located in the Gilgit-Baltistan region which is an Indian territory illegally occupied by Pakistan.
    • India has consistently conveyed her protest and shared concerns with both China and Pakistan on all such projects in the Indian territories under Pakistan’s illegal occupation.
    • In the past too, India has opposed projects jointly taken up by Pakistan and China in PoK as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

  • Role of ESCAP in the Asia-Pacific

    The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) is one of the five regional commissions under the jurisdiction of the United Nations Economic and Social Council. This article examines the common challenges that ESCAP region faces- such as danger of pollution to the marine ecosystem, lack of data about ocean, connectivity issue faces by small island nations etc. Scope for the collaboration between ESCAP nations is explored.

    Strain on marine ecosystem and its implications

    • The Asia-Pacific seas provide food, livelihoods and a sense of identity, especially for coastal communities in the Pacific island states.
    • Escalating strains on the marine environment is threatening our growth and way of life.
    • In less than a century, climate change and unsustainable resource management have degraded ecosystems and diminished biodiversity.
    • Over-fishing has exponentially increased, leaving fish stocks and food systems vulnerable.
    • Marine plastic pollution originating from region’s rivers has contributed to most of the debris flooding the ocean.

    Lack of data for SDG 14: Life below water

    • Insights from ‘Changing Sails: Accelerating Regional Actions for Sustainable Oceans in Asia and the Pacific’, the theme study of this year’s Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), focuses a lot on the need of data collection in the region.
    • At present, data are available for only two out of ten targets for the Sustainable Development Goal 14, ‘Life Below Water’.
    • Due to limitations in methodology and national statistical systems, information gaps have persisted at uneven levels across countries.

    Challenges facing the region

    1. Plastic Pollution

    • Asia and the Pacific produces nearly half of global plastic by volume, of which it consumes 38%.
    • Plastics represent a double burden for the ocean:  1) their production generates CO2 absorbed by the ocean, 2) as a final product enters the ocean as pollution.
    • Need of the hour is effective national policies and re-thinking production cycles i.e. promoting a circular economy approach.
    • Economic incentives and disincentives are necessary for the adoption of these policies as well as for minimizing resource use.

    2. Decline in fish stocks

    • Region’s position as the world’s largest producer of fish has come at the cost of over-exploitation.
    • The percentage of stocks fished at unsustainable levels has increased threefold from 10% in 1974 to 33% in 2015.
    • Generating complete data on fish stocks, fighting illicit fishing activity and conserving marine areas must remain a priority.

    3. Connectivity of island nations

    • While the most connected shipping economies are in Asia, the small island developing States of the Pacific experience much lower levels of connectivity.
    • This leaves them relatively isolated from the global economy.
    • Closing the maritime connectivity gap must be placed at the centre of regional transport cooperation efforts.
    • We must also work with the shipping community to navigate toward green shipping. Enforcing sustainable shipping policies is essential.

    Areas of cooperation

    • Trans-boundary ocean management and linking ocean data in the region can be the starting step.
    • Harnessing ocean statistics through strong national statistical systems will serve as a compass guiding countries to monitor trends, devise timely responses and clear blind spots.
    • ESCAP by using Ocean Accounts Partnership can help to harmonise ocean data and provide a space for regular dialogue among nations.
    • Translating international agreements and standards into national action is the key here. Also ensuring capacity building among nations to do so.
    • ESCAP is working with member states to implement International Maritime Organization (IMO) requirements.

    Consider the question-“What are the challenges facing the nations of Asia-Pacific amid growing levels of pollution and climate change. How cooperation among the countries of the region mitigate the risks? “

    Conclusion

    Our oceans keep our economy and our lives above the waves. We must use the years ahead to steer our collective fleets toward sustainable oceans.

    Back2Basics: ESCAP- United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)

    • India has been the founding member of ESCAP.
    • UNESCAP is the regional development arm of the United Nations in Asia and the Pacific, with a membership of 62 Governments, including 58 from the region.
    • Established in 1947 with its headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand.
    • UNESCAP serves as the highest intergovernmental regional platform to promote cooperation among member States for creating a more interconnected region working to achieve inclusive and sustainable economic and social development.
    • It carries out work in the areas of macroeconomic policy, poverty reduction and financing for development; trade and investment; transport; environment and sustainable development; information and communications technology and disaster risk reduction; social development; statistics, sub-regional activities for development; and energy.
    • UNESCAP also focuses on sub-regional activities to provide in-depth technical assistance to address specific key priorities, including poverty reduction and sustainable development, in the respective sub-regions.

    IMO- International Maritime Organisation

    • The IMO was established following agreement at a UN conference held in Geneva in 1948.
    • And the IMO came into existence ten years later, meeting for the first time in 1959.
    • As a specialized agency of the United Nations, IMO is the global standard-setting authority for the safety, security and environmental performance of international shipping.
    • Its main role is to create a regulatory framework for the shipping industry that is fair and effective, universally adopted and universally implemented.
    • IMO measures cover all aspects of international shipping – including ship design, construction, equipment, manning, operation and disposal – to ensure that this vital sector for remains safe, environmentally sound, energy-efficient and secure.

     

  • West Bank Annexation plans by US

    U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss plans to annex parts of the West Bank.

    The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question.  Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:

    Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:

    a) Central Asia
    b) Middle East
    c) South-East Asia
    d) Central Africa

    Where is West Bank Located?

    • The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
    • It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
    • Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
    • It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
    • Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
    • With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 percent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.

    Back2Basics: Gaza Strip

    • The Gaza Strip is a small boot-shaped territory along the Mediterranean coast between Egypt and Israel.
    • A couple of years later in 2007, Hamas, an anti-Israel military group, took over Gaza Strip. The militia group is often involved in violent clashes with the Israeli Defence Forces.
    • While Palestine has staked claim to both territories — West Bank and Gaza Strip — Israel’s objective has been to keep expanding Jewish settlements in these regions.

    For complete details on Israel-Palestine conflict, kindly refer:

    [Burning Issue] West Asia Peace Plan

  • India-Nepal dispute over Kalapani Region

    Nepal has protested against India’s inauguration of a Himalayan link road built in a disputed territory which falls at a strategic three-way junction with Tibet and China. Kathmandu claims the highly strategic areas of Limpiyadhura and Kalapani, although Indian troops have been deployed there since the 1962 war.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. The India-Nepal bilateral relations these days are increasingly seen through the lens of China factor. Examine.

    Kalapani Region

    • Mapped within Uttarakhand is a 372-sq km area called Kalapani, bordering far-west Nepal and Tibet.
    • A treaty signed between Nepal and British India in 1816 determined the Makhali river, that runs through Kalapani, as the boundary between the two neighbours.
    • The Treaty of Sugauli concluded between British India and the Kingdom of Nepal in the year 1816, maps the Makhali river as the western boundary with India but different British maps showed the source of the tributary at different places which was mainly due to underdeveloped and less-defined surveying techniques used at that time.
    • However, the river has many tributaries that meet at Kalapani. For this reason, India claims that the river begins at Kalapani but Nepal says that it begins from Lipu Lekh pass, which is the source of most of its tributaries.
    • While the Nepal government and political parties have protested, India has said the new map does not revise the existing boundary with Nepal.
    • India claims that the river begins at Kalapani but Nepal says that it begins from Lipu Lekh pass, which is the source of most of its tributaries.

    Legal Dimension of Issue

    According to International Laws, the principles of avulsion and accretion are applicable in determining the borders when a boundary river changes course.

    • Avulsion: It is the pushing back of the shoreline by sudden, violent action of the elements, perceptible while in progress. Also it can be defined as the sudden and perceptible change in the land brought about by water, which may result in the addition or removal of land from a bank or shoreline.
    • Accretion: It is the process of growth or enlargement by a gradual buildup. It is the natural, slow and gradual deposit of soil by the water.

    If the change of the river course is rapid – by avulsion – the boundary does not change. But if the river changes course gradually – that is, by accretion – the boundary changes accordingly.

    Since, the Gandak change of course has been gradual, India claimed Susta as part of their territory as per international laws.

    • On several occasions, India has tried to resolve the issue through friendly and peaceful negotiations, but the Nepali leadership has always shown hesitation in resolving the issue.
    • In Nepal, the issue has become a tool for arousing strong public sentiment against India. Therefore, resolving the issue may not be in the best interest of Nepal’s domestic politics.

    Significance for India

    • The Lipu Lekh pass serves strategic importance for India as a key point to monitor Chinese troop movement.
    • The link road via Lipulekh Himalayan Pass is also considered one of the shortest and most feasible trade routes between India and China.
    • The Nepalese reaction would probably have triggered in response to Chinese assertion.

    An undefined boundary claimed by Nepal

    • Nepal’s western boundary with India was marked out in the Treaty of Sugauli between the East India Company and Nepal in 1816.
    • Nepali authorities claim that people living in the low-density area were included in the Census of Nepal until 58 years ago.
    • Five years ago, Nepali Foreign Minister Mahendra Bahadur Pande claimed that the late King Mahendra had “handed over the territory to India”.
    • By some accounts in Nepal, this allegedly took place in the wake of India-China War of 1962.

    Treaty of Saguali

  • Mapping: Pangong Tso Lake

    Helicopters of the Chinese Army came close to the border during the face-off with the Indian Army near Pangong Tso Lake in Eastern Ladakh last week.

    Keep a watch on some facts related to the Pangong Tso Lake like nearby rivers, passes, Ramsar status etc.

    Aircraft restricted near LAC

    • As per existing agreements between India and China, operation of fighter aircraft and armed helicopters is restricted to a distance from the LAC.
    • According to the Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the LAC in India-China Border Area’ of 1996 combat aircraft (to include fighter, bomber, reconnaissance, military trainer, armed helicopter and other armed aircraft) shall not fly within 10 km of the LAC.

    Pangong Tso Lake

    • Pangong Tso or Pangong Lake is an endorheic lake in the Himalayas situated at a height of about 4,350 m.
    • It is 134 km long and extends from India to the Tibetan Autonomous Region, China.
    • Approximately 60% of the length of the lake lies within the Tibetan Autonomous Region.
    • The lake is 5 km wide at its broadest point. All together it covers 604 sq.km.
    • During winter the lake freezes completely, despite being saline water.
    • It is not a part of the Indus river basin area and geographically a separate landlocked river basin.
    • Formerly, Pangong Tso had an outlet to Shyok River, a tributary of Indus River, but it was closed off due to natural damming.
    • The lake is in the process of being identified under the Ramsar Convention as a wetland of international importance.
    • This will be the first trans-boundary wetland in South Asia under the convention.

    Back2Basics: India-China Border Dispute

    The India-China borders disputes exist between three regions:

    1) J&K region

    • The Aksai Chin sector which originally was a part of the state of Jammu and Kashmir is claimed by China as part of its autonomous Xinjiang region.
    • After the 1962 war, it is administered by China. It is the second-largest Indo-China border area covering over 38000 sq. km. However, it is uninhabited land.
    • While India claims the entire Aksai Chin territory as well as the Shaksgam valley (Indian Territory gifted to China by Pakistan), China contests Indian control over Daulat Beg Oldi (a tehsil in Leh south of Aksai China-it is believed to host the world’s highest airstrip).

    2) Sikkim region

    • China has recognised India’s sovereignty over Sikkim and had initiated the trade at Nathu La pass.
    • However, this is the region where the Doklam standoff took place.

    3) Arunachal Pradesh Region

    • The Arunachal Pradesh border that China still claims to be its own territory is the largest disputed area, covering around 90000 sq. km.
    • It was formally called North-East Frontier Agency.
    • During the 1962 war, the People’s Liberation Army occupied it but they announced a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew respecting the international boundary (Mcmahon Line).
    • However, it has continued to assert its claim over the territory.

  • Seven trends in the geopolitics of the world

    The article examines 7 trends that have been emerging in the global order for quite some time now. The corona crisis has only accentuated these trends. So, what are these trends? read to know more.

    1. The rise of Asia

    • The first trend which became clear in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis is the rise of Asia.
    • Economic historians pointed to its inevitability, recalling that till the 18th century, Asia accounted for half the global GDP.
    • The Industrial Revolution accompanied by European naval expansion and colonialism contributed to the rise of the West, and now the balance is being restored.
    • The 2008 financial crisis showed the resilience of Asian economies.
    • And even today, economic forecasts indicate that out of the G-20 countries, only China and India are likely to register economic growth during 2020.
    • Asian countries have also demonstrated greater agility in tackling the pandemic compared to the United States and Europe.
    • This is not limited to China but a number of other Asian states have shown greater responsiveness and more effective state capacity.
    • Consequently, Asian economies will recover faster than those in the West.

    2. Decline of the US

    • The second trend is the retreat of the U.S.after a century of being in the forefront of shaping the global order.
    • The U.S. played a decisive role in shaping the world, from the World Wars to the leadership of the western world during the Cold War, molding global responses to threats posed by terrorism or proliferation or climate change.
    • But recent examples show that interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq have become quagmires that have sapped domestic political will and resources.
    • President Donald Trump called for “America first” and during the current crisis, the U.S.’s efforts at cornering supplies of scarce medical equipment and medicines and acquiring biotech companies engaged in research and development in allied states, shows that this may mean “America alone”.
    • Moreover, even as countries were losing trust in the U.S.’s leadership, its mishandling at the home of the pandemic indicates that countries are also losing trust in the U.S.’s competence.

    3. Weakening unity of the EU

    • A third trend is the European Union’s continuing preoccupation with internal challenges.
    • This internal disruption is generated three factors: 1) EU’s expansion of membership to include East European states 2) Impact of the financial crisis among the Eurozone members 3) Ongoing Brexit negotiations.
    • Threat perceptions vary between old Europe and new Europe making it increasingly difficult to reach agreement on political matters e.g. relations with Russia and China.
    • Rising populism has given greater voice to Euro-sceptics and permitted some EU members to espouse the virtues of “illiberal democracy”.
    • Adding to this is the North-South divide within the Eurozone.
    • This divide was seen when austerity measures were imposed on Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal a decade ago by the European Central Bank.
    • These austerity measures were persuaded by the fiscally conservative Austria, Germany and the Netherlands.
    • The EU lacked solidarity when Italy was battling the pandemic alone.
    • Further damage was done when Italy was denied medical equipment by its EU neighbours who introduced export controls.
    • Schengen visa or free-border movement has already become a victim to the pandemic.
    • The EU will need considerable soul searching to rediscover the limits of free movement of goods, services, capital and people, the underlying theme of the European experiment of shared sovereignty.

    4. Rise of China

    • China’s growing economic role has been visible since it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
    • Its more assertive posture has taken shape under President Xi Jinping’s leadership with the call that a rejuvenated China is now ready to assume global responsibilities.
    • In recent years, the U.S.-China relationship moved from cooperation to competition; and now with trade and technology wars, it is moving steadily to confrontation.
    • A partial economic de-coupling had begun and will gather greater momentum.
    • The Belt and Road Initiative involves investing trillions of dollars in infrastructure building as a kind of pre-emptive move against any U.S. attempts at containment.
    • Even if Mr Xi’s leadership comes under questioning, it may soften some aggressive policy edges but the confrontational rivalry with the U.S. will remain.

    5. Failure of multinational institutions

    • With COVID-19, international and multilateral bodies are nowhere on the scene.
    • The World Health Organisation (WHO) was the natural candidate to lead global efforts against the health crisis but it has become a victim of politics.
    • The UN Security Council (UNSC), the G-7 and the G-20 are paralysed when the world faces the worst recession since 1929.
    • The reality is that these institutions were always subjected to big power politics.
    • During the Cold War, U.S.-Soviet rivalry blocked the UNSC on many sensitive issues and now with major power rivalry returning, finds itself paralysed again.
    • Agencies such as WHO have lost autonomy over the decades as their regular budgets shrank.
    • Budget constraints forced them to increasingly rely on voluntary contributions sourced largely from western countries and foundations.
    • The absence of a multilateral response today highlights the long-felt need for reform of these bodies but this cannot happen without collective global leadership.

    6. The oil prices

    • The two trends were changing energy markets: 1)Growing interest in renewables and green technologies on account of climate change concerns. 2) The U.S. emerging as a major energy producer.
    • Now, a looming economic recession and depressed oil prices will exacerbate internal tensions in West Asian countries which are solely dependent on oil revenues.

    7. Stability of West Asia

    • Long-standing rivalries in the region have often led to local conflicts but can now create political instability in countries where regime structures are fragile.

    Consider the question “The Corona crisis contributed to speeding the failure of a global order which had been faltering before the pandemic afflicted the world. Examine the trends that have been accentuated by the pandemic.”

    Conclusion

    The vaccine may end the corona crisis when it comes, but the unfolding trends in the geopolitics have been altering the world even before the corona crisis and continue to do so after a pandemic is over.

     

  • Mapping: Islands in the Pacific

    Approximately four months after COVID-19 was first detected, the South Pacific Islands have not yet reported any cases of the infectious disease.

    Closely observe the map. Note important islands. UPSC may shift its traditional focus from middle east/central asia to this region. These days, Pacific and Indo-Pacific region carry a decent importance.

    We can expect MCQs asking to arrange these islands in north-south / east-west direction.

    Which South Pacific islands have recorded cases of COVID-19?

    • Fiji recorded its first case of COVID-19 on March 19.
    • Guam, a territory of the US in the South Pacific, witnessed an outbreak among the staff of the US navy.
    • New Caledonia also recorded its first COVID-19 cases in mid-March, with links to overseas travel.
    • The Solomon Islands, the Cook Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, the Marshall Islands, Palau and Nauru have no recorded cases of COVID-19.

    What impact will COVID-19 have on Pacific island nations?

    • A widespread outbreak of COVID-19 will have a disastrous impact on these island nations.
    • Although these islands are popular with tourists, the outer islands and rural villages are home to indigenous populations.
    • Most of these areas have a very basic infrastructure for healthcare, with larger hospitals and medical centres located in bigger towns.
    • Even in everyday circumstances, these small medical centres struggle due to the lack of medical supplies.
    • The socio-cultural factors, like the prevalence of large families in this region, also make the individuals susceptible to community transmission.
    • There is also a lack of access to running water, making sanitation difficult.
    • Environmental factors like the seasonal tropical cyclone that swept through the region in April, led to the displacement of hundreds of people in the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga.

  • [pib] Mission SAGAR

    As part of India’s outreach amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, ships have departed for Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar and Comoros, to provide Food Items, COVID related Medicines including HCQ Tablets and Medical Assistance Teams under Mission Sagar.

    Mission SAGAR, unlike other missions, can create confusion with the name and its purpose. Make note of such special cases. UPSC can ask such questions as one liner MCQs.

    Mission SAGAR

    • As part of the mission, INS Kesari would enter the Port of Male in the Republic of Maldives, to provide them 600 tons of food provisions.
    • The deployment is in consonance with the PMs vision of Security and Growth for All in the Region ‘SAGAR’.
    • This deployment is in line with India’s role as the first responder in the region and builds on the excellent relations existing between these countries to battle the COVID-19 pandemic and its resultant difficulties.
    • The operation is being progressed in close coordination with the Ministries of Defence and External Affairs, and other agencies of the govt.

    Back2Basics

    SAGAR Programme (Security and Growth for All in the Region)

    • SAGAR is a term coined by PM Modi in 2015 during his Mauritius visit with a focus on the blue economy.
    • It is a maritime initiative which gives priority to the Indian Ocean region for ensuring peace, stability and prosperity of India in the Indian Ocean region.
    • The goal is to seek a climate of trust and transparency; respect for international maritime rules and norms by all countries; sensitivity to each other`s interests; peaceful resolution of maritime issues; and increase in maritime cooperation.
    • It is in line with the principles of the Indian Ocean Rim Association.

    IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association)

    • Established in 1997 in Ebene Cyber City, Mauritius.
    • First established as Indian Ocean Rim Initiative in Mauritius on March 1995 and formally launched in 1997 by the conclusion of a multilateral treaty known as the Charter of the IORA for Regional Cooperation.
    • It is based on the principles of Open Regionalism for strengthening Economic Cooperation particularly on Trade Facilitation and Investment, Promotion as well as Social Development of the region.

  • Opportunity for India in changing global order

    The world is going through a transition phase. We are experiencing the rise of new powers and the decline of the old. India has to navigate its path through this changing order keeping its interests in mind. The double opportunity in current scenario for India is explained in the article. To know more about it, continue reading.

    The changing global stage

    • The world today is fragmenting and slowing down economically.
    • Asia-Pacific is the new economic and political centre of the world with the rise of China, India and other powers — Indonesia, South Korea, Iran, Vietnam.
    • Rapid shifts in the balance of power in the region have led to arms races and the US’s “America First” attitude has led to rising uncertainty.
    • China-U.S. strategic contention is growing, uninhibited so far by their economic co-dependence.
    • As China seeks primacy in a world so far dominated by the U.S., the world faces a destabilising power transition which may or may not be completed.

    What should India’s response be to the new situation?

    Alliance with the US?

    • Many experts advocate that India should enter into an alliance with the U.S in the wake of rising China.
    • But India is much greater and more resilient than these people think.
    • Also, the aim of foreign and security policies of India has been the pursuit of strategic autonomy for India.
    • Thus, in the present situation, India should retain the above initiative and not get entangled in others’ quarrels. (i.e. the US-China quarrel)
    • Also, India should focus on pursuing its own national interest in this disorganized and uncertain world by creative diplomacy and flexibility.
    • An alliance seems to be exactly the wrong answer.

    China challenge

    • One way to handle China could be to see whether the two countries can evolve a new modus vivendi.
    • This new modus vivendi shall replace the one that was formalised in the 1988 Rajiv Gandhi visit.
    • The old framework is no longer working and the signs of stress in the relationship are everywhere.
    • The more India rises, the more it must expect Chinese opposition.
    • So, India will have to work with other powers to ensure that its interests are protected in the neighbourhood, the region and the world.
    • The complexity of India-China relations suggests there is a scope for new modus vivendi.
    • This would require a high-level strategic dialogue between the two sides about their core interests, red lines, differences and areas of convergence.

    What India can do to keep the region multi-polar?

    • As U.S. is withdrawing from the world, it will no longer be the upholder of international, economic and political order.
    • There is uncertainty over how the US will choose to deal with China.
    • India must work with other powers to ensure that this region stays multi-polar and that China behaves responsibly.

    Double opportunity for India

    • 1. Opportunity in the US-China contention
    • US-China contention will continue in future. Hence, both China and the U.S. will look to put other conflicts (eg: conflicts with India on trade or border issue) and tensions on the back burner.
    • This effect is already perceptible in the Wuhan meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and Mr. Modi in early 2018.
    • And the apparent truce and dialing back of rhetoric by both India and China.
    • 2. Opportunity to Change national security Structures
    • Today, India is more dependent on the outside world than ever before.
    • It relies on the world for energy, technology, essential goods like fertilizer and coal, commodities, access to markets, and capital.
    • Adding the new security agenda and the contested global commons in outer and cyberspace and the high seas to India’s traditional state-centred security concerns gives India a sense of insecurity.
    • So, India needs to adapt to the changes and avoid imitating China.

    Consider the question-“The global order is experiencing geopolitical churn, new powers are rising and older are staring at the decline. In such a scenario, examine the opportunities India can explore in the context of the US-China contention”.

    Conclusion

    India risks missing the bus to becoming a developed country if it continues business and politics as usual. The most important improvement that India needs to make concerns its national security structures and their work — introducing flexibility into India’s thinking and India’s structures. For change is the only certainty in life.

  • Global crisis and opportunities for India

    Multilateralism has been on the decline for some time now.  The corona pandemic has acted like a catalyst to heightene this crisis. China’s role in weaponising the interdependence of multilateralism would have far-reaching consequences to the world as we know it. Yet, the crisis presents India with some unique opportunities. What are these opportunities? How can we save multilateralism? or do we even need to? These questions and such other issues are discussed in the article.

    The basic Idea

    • Multilateralism has its benefits like to reduce the further spread of the virus, to develop effective medical treatments, and to curtail the worst effects of the inevitable recession- cooperation among nations will be necessary.
    • But the very foundation of multilateralism is shaking today. Hence, the need of the hour is a meaningful fix.
    • The US faces multiple internal challenges like the divisive Presidential election in November and China is facing a global crisis of credibility.
    • Thus, India is uniquely positioned to help resuscitate multilateralism.
    • New Delhi can assume leadership in strengthening constructive transnational cooperation.
    • India may also help China: Through mediation to temper what is increasingly seen as Beijing’s unilateralist revisionism; revive the promise of the gradual socialisation of China into the international system; and its acceptance of the norms and rules that regulate the principal multilateral institutions.

    So, when did the crisis of multilateralism start?

    • The malaise that afflicts multilateralism is not new.
    • 1) The paralysis of all three functions of the World Trade Organization (WTO) — negotiation, dispute settlement, and transparency — was one sign of that deep-rooted malaise.
    • 2) The severely dented credibility of the World Health Organization (WHO) is just another more recent indicator.
    • The pandemic has heightened the crisis of multilateralism, not created it.
    • Pandemic has highlighted the misuse of international institutions (like WHO) and multilateralism is incapable of dealing with it.

    Weaponisation of the global supply chain by China

    • Post-war multilateral system was based on the idea of peace and prosperity.
    • It was expected that economic inter-mingling among various countries would lead to peace.
    • Most of the countries of were democratic and countries with a different system of governance were not part of this system.
    • Our multinational institutions were not designed to handle the situation in which one country starts misusing its dominant position in interdependence (ex. global supply chains).
    • The misuse of existing loopholes within the existing rules by China to gain an unfair advantage in trade relations was already attracting critique in the last years.
    • China has been accused of forced technology requirements, intellectual property rights violations, and subsidies.
    • But the pandemic has provided us with some even more alarming illustrations of how damaging the weaponisation of global supply chains can be.

    Examples of China weaponising interdependence

    • When India complained that test kits imported from China were faulty, China slammed it for “irresponsible” behaviour.
    • When Australia indicated that it would conduct an independent investigation of China’s early handling of the epidemic, China threatened it with economic consequences.
    • Several actors, including the EU and India, were alarmed at the prospects of predatory takeovers of their companies by China.

    Against this background, repeated calls by heads of governments and international organisations urging countries to remain committed to multilateralism ring hollow.

    So, what are remedies to save multilateralism?

    • 1. Policies with renewed commitment
    • There is the need for reassurance and policies that reflect a renewed commitment to the raison d’étre of multilateralism.
    • A “retreating” United States must demonstrate that it remains committed to strengthening global supply chains.
    • Global supply chains must be based on the promise of ensuring global stability and the attendant promise of peace and prosperity.
    • 2. Strategic separation of value chains
    • There is an urgent need for some strategic decoupling, handled smartly in cooperation with other like-minded countries.
    • It will undoubtedly cause considerable disruption to existing global value chains.
    • We will be less prosperous. But we will also be more secure.
    • 3. Closer integration with some distancing from others
    • A multilateralism that recognises the need for decoupling will necessitate closer cooperation with some and distancing from others.
    • Membership of such renewed multilateral institutions would not be universal.
    • Rather, one would limit deep integration to countries with which one shares values — such as pluralism, democracy, liberalism, animal welfare rights, and more.

    Opportunities for India

    • India is a country whose pluralism, democracy and liberalism have often been underestimated by the West.
    • As some constituencies in the West seek a gradual decoupling from China, they would be well served to look toward India.
    • To make use of the opportunities, for itself and for the provision of certain global public goods, India’s cooperation with like-minded actors will be key.
    • India could work closely with the Alliance for Multilateralism, an initiative launched by Germany and France, to shape both the alliance itself and the reform agenda at large.
    • Working together with a group of countries from the developed and developing countries could further amplify India’s voice.
    • China may recover faster than most economically, and its military might remains intact, its image as a reliable partner has suffered a huge dent.
    • India could lead a coalition to bridge the deficit of trust between China and the rest of the world.

    Consider the following question “Covid pandemic has been acting as a catalyst in precipitating the fall of global order and multilateralism. At the same time, we are well aware of the utility of the multilateralism. Examine the opportunities that falling global order provides for India in restoring it in the new form.”

    Conclusion

    The disruption in the global order provides India with a unique opportunity. One the one hand it has to steer the gradual decoupling with China and on the other hand, it has the opportunity to lead the coalition to bridge trust deficit with China. India should not squander these opportunities.