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Subject: International Stories of Key Importance

  • From neutral to NATO: Why Finland joining the alliance matters

    Earlier reluctant, Finland is now hurtling to join NATO making a monumental shift for a nation with a long history of wartime neutrality and staying out of military alliances.

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Why was it founded?

    Ans. Communist sweep in Europe post-WWII and rise of Soviet dominance

    • After World War II in 1945, Western Europe was economically exhausted and militarily weak, and newly powerful communist parties had arisen in France and Italy.
    • By contrast, the Soviet Union had emerged from the war with its armies dominating all the states of central and Eastern Europe.
    • By 1948 communists under Moscow’s sponsorship had consolidated their control of the governments of those countries and suppressed all non-communist political activity.
    • What became known as the Iron Curtain, a term popularized by Winston Churchill, had descended over central and Eastern Europe.

    Ideology of NATO

    • NATO ensures that the security of its European member countries is inseparably linked to that of its North American member countries.
    • It commits the Allies to democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law, as well as to the peaceful resolution of disputes.
    • It also provides a unique forum for dialogue and cooperation across the Atlantic.

    What is Article 5?

    • Article 5 was a key part of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, or Washington Treaty, and was meant to offer a collective defence against a potential invasion of Western Europe.
    • It states: (NATO members) will assist the party or parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
    • However, since then, it has only been invoked once, soon after the 9/11 attack in the United States.

    Why Finland wishes to join now?

    • The country, so far, has stayed away from joining such alliances as it always wanted to maintain cordial relations with its neighbour Russia.
    • For a long time, the idea of not joining NATO or getting too close to the West was a matter of survival for the Finns.
    • However, the change in perception and overwhelming support to join NATO came about following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
    • NATO membership would strengthen the country’s security and defence system.

    Was this a long time coming?

    • For Finns, events in Ukraine bring a haunting sense of familiarity.
    • The Soviets had invaded Finland in late 1939 and despite the Finnish army putting up fierce resistance for more than three months, they ended up losing 10 per cent of their territory.
    • The country adopted to stay non-aligned during the cold war years.
    • However, insecurities started growing since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 as Finland brought back conscription and military spending went up.

    What about Sweden?

    • Sweden is likely to apply for membership after Finland’s final call.
    • If Finland joins, Sweden will be the only Nordic non-member of NATO.
    • Now, unlike Finland, whose policy stance was a matter of survival, Sweden has been opposed to joining the organisation for ideological reasons.

    What would a membership mean and will it benefit NATO as well?

    • NATO has shown eagerness about Finland and Sweden’s memberships.
    • Usually, becoming an official NATO member can take up to a year as it requires the approval of all existing member states.
    • Finland’s geographical location plays in its favour as once it becomes a member, the length of borders Russia shares with NATO would double.
    • This would also strengthen the alliance’s position in the Baltic Sea.

    How have Russia and other countries reacted?

    • Russia’s foreign ministry has said that they will be forced to take military steps if the membership materialises.
    • Russia has warned that this may prompt Moscow to deploy nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania.

     

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  • Ukraine conflict won’t make the US abandon Indo-Pacific strategy

    Context

    When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

    The Challenge of balancing China and Russia

    • There are two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question.
    • 1] Engagement with allies: When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.
    • Biden came to power with a determination to make the Indo-Pacific the highest priority of his foreign policy.
    • He is not going to abandon that objective in dealing with the unexpected crisis in Europe.
    • The assumption that China was the principal challenge and Russia was less of a threat led Biden to meet Putin in June 2021 to offer prospects for a reasonable relationship with Russia in order to devote US energies to the China question.
    • But Putin’s calculations led him towards a deeper strategic partnership with China
    • But America’s assessment of the Russian and Chinese threats has not changed since the war began in Ukraine.
    • The idea that China will gain from the Russian war in Ukraine has also proven to be false.
    • Expectations that Russia’s triumph in Ukraine will be followed by a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan have begun to dissipate.
    • Meanwhile, China is reeling under self-inflicted problems, most notably Xi Jinping’s zero Covid strategy and his crackdown on the large internet companies.
    • The costly foreign policy of China: Beijing’s prospects look a lot less rosy than before as the Chinese economy slows down and XI’s foreign policy turns out to be quite costly for China.
    • The muscular approach of China: In Asia, China’s muscular approach to disputes with its neighbours has helped strengthen the US alliances, create new forums like the AUKUS, elevate old ones like the Quad to a higher level, and consolidate the strategic conception of the Indo-Pacific.
    • 2] Coordination with allies and partners: Biden’s lemma to the theorem on a two-front strategy is a simple one — that Washington will address the simultaneous challenge in Europe and Asia not by acting alone but in coordination with allies and partners. 
    • The idea was rooted in the recognition that alliances and partnerships are America’s greatest strength and most important advantage over Russia and China.

    Engagement with Asia

    • ASEAN: This week’s summit level engagement with the ASEAN comes after sustained high-level US outreach to the region since the Biden Administration took charge.
    • In northeast Asia, the election of Yoon Suk-yeol as the president of South Korea has tilted the scales slightly towards the US in the continuing battle for influence between Beijing and Washington.
    • The US is also actively trying to reduce the differences between its two treaty allies in the region — South Korea and Japan.
    • Asia’s new coalitions are a response to Xi Jinping’s unilateralism and his quest for regional hegemony.
    • India’s enthusiasm for the Quad can be directly correlated to Xi’s military coercion on the disputed frontiers with India.

    Implications for India

    • The two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question have worked well for India.
    • Tolerance toward India-Russia engagement: For one, the US’s emphasis on the long-term challenge from China has meant that Washington is willing to tolerate India’s engagement with Russia.
    • Time for the diversification of defence ties: This gives India time to diversify its defence ties that have been heavily dependent on Russia.
    • The US emphasis on partnerships rather than unilateralism in dealing with the China challenge means India’s agency in the region can only grow.
    • The Quad allows Delhi to carve out a larger role for itself in Asia and the Indo-Pacific in collaboration with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    Contrary to the initial assumptions that America is on the retreat and the West is in disarray, it is Moscow and Beijing that are on the defensive as the war in Ukraine completes three months.

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  • India-Denmark relations

    Context

    As Russia, isolated by unprecedented Western sanctions, deepens its alliance with China, Europe has begun to loom larger than ever before in India’s strategic calculus. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Berlin, Copenhagen, and Paris this week could give us a glimpse of India’s post-Russian strategic future in Europe.

    Engagement with collective Europe

    • In her visit to Delhi, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von Der Leyn, unveiled the new contours of the EU’s strategic partnership with India by launching the India-Europe Trade and Technology Council. 
    • This week, the focus is on India’s key bilateral partnerships with European majors — Germany and France — as well as a critical northern corner of Europe, the so-called Norden.
    • Having built up a significant engagement with Moscow over the decades, India and Germany are under pressure to disentangle from the Russian connection.
    • Modi and Scholz could also exchange notes on how their long-standing illusions about China came crashing down.
    • Macron’s return to power in France offers a good moment for Modi to imagine the next phase in bilateral relations.
    • For some time now it has been said that France is India’s “new Russia” — Delhi’s most important strategic partner.
    • In recent years, France has emerged as a strong defender of India’s interests in the United Nations Security Council and a regional ally in the vast Indo-Pacific theatre.
    • France has also been a major supplier of advanced arms to India.
    • But Delhi and Paris have been some distance away from demonstrating full possibilities of their defence partnership.
    • There is no doubt that Western Europe has moved from the margins to the centre of India’s foreign and security policies.
    • The crisis in Ukraine, which has shattered the regional order that emerged in 1991, intensifies the imperatives for deeper strategic cooperation between India and its European partners.

    India’s engagement with smaller European countries

    • In Copenhagen, the bilateral talks with Danish leadership are about Delhi finally finding time for the smaller European countries.
    • The Nordic summit hosted by Denmark underlines India’s discovery of the various sub-regions of Europe — from the Baltics to the Balkans and from Iberia to Mittleuropa.
    • The Nordic Five — Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden — have a population of barely 25 million but their GDP at $1.8 trillion is greater than that of Russia.
    • Two members of the Nordic five — Sweden and Finland — are now rushing to end their long-standing neutral status and join NATO.
    • The other three — Denmark, Iceland, and Norway — have been founding members of NATO, set up in 1949.
    • Listening to the Nordic leaders might help Delhi appreciate the deeply-held fears about Russia among Moscow’s smaller neighbours.
    • In Copenhagen, Modi would want to build on the unique bilateral green strategic partnership with Denmark.

    Germany and India’s engagement with Russia

    • Berlin is tied far more deeply to Russia than India.
    • Germany’s annual trade with Russia is about $60 billion while India’s is at $10 bn.
    • Germany relies heavily on Russian natural gas, while Russian arms dominate India’s weaponry.
    • Irrespective of their Russian preferences, Germany and India have no option but to live with circumstances over which they have no control.
    • Opportunity for India: Making India an attractive new destination for German capital, now under pressure to reduce its exposure to Russian and Chinese markets, should be the highest priority for PM Modi.
    • Germany is one of India’s oldest economic partners, but the full potential of the commercial relationship has never been realised.
    • If there ever was a moment to think big about the future of German trade and investment in India, it is now.

    Conclusion

    A new paradigm is beckoning India — strong commercial and security partnerships with Europe that stand on their own merit and bring the many synergies between them into active play.

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  • What is China’s Global Security Initiative?

    Chinese President Xi Jinping last week proposed a “Global Security Initiative” to promote security for all in the globe.

    What is Global Security Initiative?

    • Conceived as a global public good, the initiative seeks to promote world peace and stability by fostering equity and justice among nations.
    • To do this, Xi defined his proposal in six areas:
    1. Stay committed to the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, and work together to maintain world peace and security;
    2. Stay committed to respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, uphold non-interference in internal affairs, and respect the independent choices of development paths and social systems made by people in different countries;
    3. Stay committed to abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, reject the Cold War mentality, oppose unilateralism, and say no to group politics and bloc confrontation;
    4. Stay committed to taking the legitimate security concerns of all countries seriously, uphold the principle of indivisible security, build a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture, and oppose the pursuit of one’s own security at the cost of others’ security;
    5. Stay committed to peacefully resolving differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation, support all efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of crises, reject double standards, and oppose the wanton use of unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction;
    6. Stay committed to maintaining security in both traditional and non-traditional domains, and work together on regional disputes and global challenges such as terrorism, climate change, cybersecurity, and biosecurity.

    It is quite ironic that China has never adhered to any of the above-stated lofty principles and now is preaching them to the world.

    Key propositions made by Xi

    • China opposes the wanton use of unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction, appearing to refer to Western sanctions.
    • He said “some countries” were “eager to engage in exclusive ‘small circles’ and ‘small groups’”, terms Chinese officials have used previously to describe the Quad and the AUKUS (Australia-U.K.-U.S.) security pact.
    • He firmly opposed the use of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy to divide the region and create a ‘new Cold War’, and the use of military alliances to put together an ‘Asian version of NATO’.
    • According to him, China upholds true spirit of multilateralism.

    A critical assessment of Xi’s speech

    • The idea of a world-encompassing security mechanism sounds like what China’s ancient emperors might have proposed.
    • Diplomats are under pressure to dissect the meaning but are having a hard time: Xi’s speech contained only abstract Chinese words and idioms.
    • One thing is very clear, China always comes out with an excessively large framework that nobody objects to.
    • The idea is that even if countries don’t agree wholeheartedly, at least they can’t fully oppose it.

    Conclusion

    • Chinese criticism of unilateralism, hegemony and double standards is usually aimed at the U.S.
    • Xi envisions a gradually weakening America replaced by a multipolar world in which China is a major player.

     

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  • EU member states agrees on Digital Services Act (DSA)

    The European Parliament and European Union (EU) Member States announced that they had reached a political agreement on the Digital Services Act (DSA).

    What is DSA?

    • DSA is a landmark legislation to force big Internet companies to act against disinformation and illegal and harmful content, and to “provide better protection for Internet users and their fundamental rights”.
    • The Act, which is yet to become law, was proposed by the EU Commission (anti-trust) in December 2020.
    • As defined by the EU Commission, the DSA is “a set of common rules on intermediaries’ obligations and accountability across the single market”.
    • It seeks to ensure higher protection to all EU users, irrespective of their country.
    • The proposed Act will work in conjunction with the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), which was approved last month.

    Whom will the DSA apply?

    • Intermediaries: The DSA will tightly regulate the way intermediaries, especially large platforms such as Google, Facebook, and YouTube, function when it comes to moderating user content.
    • Abusive or illegal content: Instead of letting platforms decide how to deal with abusive or illegal content, the DSA will lay down specific rules and obligations for these companies to follow.
    • Ambit platforms: The legislation brings in its ambit platforms that provide Internet access, domain name registrars, hosting services such as cloud computing and web-hosting services.
    • Very large platforms: But more importantly, very large online platforms (VLOPs) and very large online search engines (VLOSEs) will face “more stringent requirements.”
    • 45 million monthly users-base: Any service with more than 45 million monthly active users in the EU will fall into this category. Those with under 45 million monthly active users in the EU will be exempt from certain new obligations.

    Key features

    A wide range of proposals seeks to ensure that the negative social impact arising from many of the practices followed by the Internet giants is minimised or removed:

    1. Faster removal of illicit content: Online platforms and intermediaries such as Facebook, Google, YouTube, etc will have to add “new procedures for faster removal” of content deemed illegal or harmful. This can vary according to the laws of each EU Member State.
    2. Introduction of Trusted Flaggers: Users will be able to challenge these takedowns as well. Platforms will need to have a clear mechanism to help users flag content that is illegal. Platforms will have to cooperate with “trusted flaggers”.
    3. Imposition of duty of care: Marketplaces such as Amazon will have to “impose a duty of care” on sellers who are using their platform to sell products online. They will have to “collect and display information on the products and services sold in order to ensure that consumers are properly informed.”
    4. Annual audit of big platforms: The DSA adds an obligation for very large digital platforms and services to analyse systemic risks they create and to carry out risk reduction analysis. This audit for platforms like Google and Facebook will need to take place every year.
    5. Promoting independent research: The Act proposes to allow independent vetted researchers to have access to public data from these platforms to carry out studies to understand these risks better.
    6. Ban ‘Dark Patterns’ or “misleading interfaces: The DSA proposes to ban ‘Dark Patterns’ or “misleading interfaces” that are designed to trick users into doing something that they would not agree to otherwise.
    7. Transparency of Algorithms: It also proposes “transparency measures for online platforms on a variety of issues, including on the algorithms used for recommending content or products to users”.
    8. Easy cancellation of subscription: Finally, it says that cancelling a subscription should be as easy as subscribing.
    9. Protection of minors: The law proposes stronger protection for minors, and aims to ban targeted advertising for them based on their personal data.
    10. Crisis mechanism clause: This clause will make it “possible to analyse the impact of the activities of these platforms” on the crisis, and the Commission will decide the appropriate steps to be taken to ensure the fundamental rights of users are not violated.
    11. Others: Companies will have to look at the risk of “dissemination of illegal content”, “adverse effects on fundamental rights”, “manipulation of services having an impact on democratic processes and public security”, “adverse effects on gender-based violence, and on minors and serious consequences for the physical or mental health of users.”

    Bar over Social Media

    • It has been clarified that the platforms and other intermediaries will not be liable for the unlawful behaviour of users.
    • So, they still have ‘safe harbour’ in some sense.
    • However, if the platforms are “aware of illegal acts and fail to remove them, they will be liable for this user behaviour.
    • Small platforms, which remove any illegal content they detect, will not be liable.

    Are there any such rules in India?

    • India last year brought the Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021.
    • These rules make the social media intermediary and its executives liable if the company fails to carry out due diligence.
    • Rule 4 (a) states that significant social media intermediaries — such as Facebook or Google — must appoint a chief compliance officer (CCO), who could be booked if a tweet or post that violates local laws is not removed within the stipulated period.
    • India’s Rules also introduce the need to publish a monthly compliance report.
    • They include a clause on the need to trace the originator of a message — this provision has been challenged by WhatsApp in the Delhi High Court.

     

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  • Places in news: Kuril Islands

    Japan has recently described the Kuril Islands (which Japan calls the Northern Territories and Russia as the South Kurils) as being under Russia’s “illegal occupation”.

    Note the Islands of Japan in North to South Direction:  Hokkaido, Honshu , Shikoku, and Kyushu

    What are the Kuril Islands/ Northern Territories?

    • These are a set of four islands situated between the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific Ocean near the north of Japan’s northernmost prefecture, Hokkaido.
    • Both Moscow and Tokyo claim sovereignty over them though the islands have been under Russian control since the end of World War II.
    • The Soviet Union had seized the islands at the end of World War II and by 1949 had expelled its Japanese residents.
    • Tokyo claims that the disputed islands have been part of Japan since the early 19th century.

    Why in news?

    • This is the first time in about two decades that Japan has used this phrase to describe the dispute over the Kuril Islands.
    • Japan had been using softer language since 2003, saying that the dispute over the islands was the greatest concern in Russia-Japan bilateral ties.

    What lies behind the dispute?

    • Japan’s sovereignty over the islands is confirmed by several treaties since 1855.
    • Russia, on the other hand, claims the Yalta Agreement (1945) and the Potsdam Declaration (1945) as proof of its sovereignty.
    • It argues that the San Francisco Treaty of 1951 is legal evidence that Japan had acknowledged Russian sovereignty over the islands.
    • Under Article 2 of the treaty, Japan had “renounced all right, title and claim to the Kuril Islands.”
    • However, Japan argues that the San Francisco Treaty cannot be used here as the Soviet Union never signed the peace treaty.

    Continuing the WW2

    • In fact, Japan and Russia are technically still at war because they have not signed a peace treaty after World War II.
    • In 1956, during Japanese PM Ichiro Hatoyama’s visit to the Soviet Union, it was suggested that two of the four islands would be returned to Japan once a peace treaty was signed.
    • However, persisting differences prevented the signing of a peace treaty though the two countries signed the Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration, which restored diplomatic relations between the two nations.
    • The Soviet Union later hardened its position, even refusing to recognise that a territorial dispute existed with Japan.
    • It was only in 1991 during Mikhail Gorbachev’s visit to Japan that the USSR recognised that the islands were the subject of a territorial dispute.

    Have there been attempts at resolution?

    • Since 1991, there have been many attempts to resolve the dispute and sign a peace treaty.
    • The most recent attempt was under PM Shinzo Abe when joint economic development of the disputed islands was explored.
    • In fact, both countries had agreed to have bilateral negotiations based on the 1956 Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration.
    • Russia was even willing to give back two islands, the Shikotan Island and the Habomai islets, to Japan after the conclusion of a peace treaty as per the 1956 declaration.
    • Japan’s attempt to improve ties with Russia was driven by its need to diversify energy sources and Russia by its need to diversify its basket of buyers and bring in foreign investments.
    • But nationalist sentiments on both sides prevented resolution of the dispute.

    Implications for Japan

    • Soon after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Japan made its unhappiness with Russia clear.
    • Japan has been among the most steadfast of Western allies in denouncing Russian aggression and punishing it with sanctions.
    • Japan has probably been spurred by its fears of a Russia-China alliance as Japan itself has territorial disputes and an uneasy history with China.
    • Secondly, Japan might have felt that this is a good opportunity to further isolate Russia and paint it as a “habitual offender” of international law.
    • Finally, Tokyo might have been prompted to take this position as it feels that the invasion of Ukraine proves that getting back the Kuril Islands is a lost cause.

     

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  • India can be the fulcrum of the new global order

    Context

    As Mahatma Gandhi’s nation, India must be a committed and relentless apostle of peace and non-violence, both at home and in the world.

    How the Russia-Ukraine conflict is reshaping the world order

    • Ever since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, a paradigm of free societies, frictionless borders and open economies evolved to be the governing order in many nations.
    • This catalysed freer movement of people, goods, services and capital across the world.
    • India too has benefited enormously from being an active participant in this interconnected world, with a tripling of trade (as share of GDP) in the last three decades and providing vast numbers of jobs.
    • Such tight inter-dependence among nations will lead to fewer conflicts and promote peace, was the established wisdom.
    • The Russia-Ukraine conflict has dismantled this wisdom.
    • Mutually beneficial to mutually harmful: If inter-connectedness and trade among nations were mutually beneficial, then it follows that its disruption and blockade will be mutually harmful.
    • Global Village was built on the foundation of advanced transportation networks, cemented with the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency and fenced by integrated payment systems.
    • Any disruption to this delicate balance runs the risk of plunging the ‘Global Village’ into disequilibrium and derailing the lives of all.

    Trade opportunity for India

    • Trade with other nations should and will always be an integral cornerstone of India’s economic future.
    • A reversal towards isolationism and protectionism will be foolhardy and calamitous for India.
    • As the western bloc of nations looks to reduce dependence on the Russia-China bloc of nations, it presents newer avenues for India to expand trade.
    • It presents a tremendous opportunity for India to become a large producing nation for the world and a global economic powerhouse.
    • However, to capitalise on these opportunities, India needs free access to these markets, an accepted and established global currency to trade in and seamless trade settlements.

    Suggestions for India

    1] Bilateral currency agreements are unsustainable

    • The American dollar has emerged as the global trade currency, bestowing an ‘exorbitant privilege’ on the dollar.
    • But a forced and hurried dismantling of this order and replacing it with rushed bilateral local currency arrangements can prove to be more detrimental for the global economy in the longer run.
    • We had an Indian rupee-Russian rouble agreement in the late 1970s and 1980s, when we mutually agreed on exchange rates for trading purposes.
    • Now, with India’s robust external sector, a flourishing trading relationship with many nations and tremendous potential to expand trade, such bilateral arrangements are unsustainable, unwieldy, and perilous.

    2] Avoid discounted commodity purchases from Russia

    • In the long run, India stands to gain more from unfettered access to the western bloc markets for Indian exports under the established trading order than from discounted commodities purchased under new bilateral currency arrangements that seek to create a new and parallel global trade structure.
    • It entails a prolonged departure from the established order of dollar-based trade settlement or jeopardises established trading relationships with western bloc markets, it can have longer term implications for India’s export potential.

    3] Non-disruptive geo-economic policy

    • India needs not just a non-aligned doctrine for the looming new world order but also a non-disruptive geo-economic policy that seeks to maintain the current global economic equilibrium.
    •  By the dint of its sheer size and scale, India can be both a large producer and a consumer.
    • To best utilise this opportunity, India needs not just cordial relationships with nations on either side of the new divide but also a stable and established global economic environment.

    4] Social harmony is a must

    • Just as it is in India’s best interests to balance the current geo-economic equilibrium, it is also imperative for India to maintain its domestic social equilibrium.
    • Social harmony is the edifice of economic prosperity.
    • Fanning mutual distrust, hate and anger among citizens, causing social disharmony is a shameful slide to perdition.

    Conclusion

    The reshaping and realignment of the world order will be a unique opportunity for India to reassess its foreign policy, economic policy and geo-political strategy and don the mantle of global leadership.

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  • India’s role in a disordered world

    Context

    Western nations want to throw Russia out of the G-20. China has opposed them. India will be chair of the G-20 from December 1, 2022. The world is greatly disordered. What should India stand for?

    Challenges to the global order

    • The war in Ukraine in February 2022 has put the final nail in the coffin of the boundary-less global economy that seemed to be emerging with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
    • Vaccines were hoarded by rich countries in the COVID-19 pandemic: poor countries starved.
    • The World Trade Organization (WTO) was already in a bad state before the novel coronavirus pandemic, with rich and poor countries unable to agree on equitable rules, when COVID-19 froze global supply chains.
    • Institutions of global governance have failed to unite the world.

    Global order and governance challenge

    • In the aftermath of the Second World war, new institutions for global governance were established — the United Nations and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to provide finance to build the economies of all countries to eliminate poverty.
    • However, the victors retained their veto power within the United Nations Security Council to determine when force can be used to keep the world in order, and to prevent the proliferation of nuclear power.
    • The UN General Assembly meets every year — now 193 nations strong.
    • It passes many resolutions to address global problems — hunger, poverty, women’s rights, terrorism, climate change, etc.
    • However, “might is right”: members of the Security Council retain their right to deny the democratic will of the Assembly when it does not suit them.
    • Global governance is not democratic.

    G-7 and G-20

    • The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Japan, West Germany and Canada formed the G7 in 1976. ‘so that the noncommunist powers could come together to discuss economic concerns, which at the time included inflation and recession following the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo’.
    • The European Union was invited to attend in 1977.
    • Russia joined in 1998 — and ‘its inclusion was meant as a signal of cooperation between East and West after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991’.
    • However, Russia was removed from G-8 in 2014 when it invaded the Crimea. China was never a member.
    • After the Asian financial crisis, the G20 was formed in 1999 with the aim of discussing policies in order to achieve international financial stability.
    • Russia and China are members.
    • Now western nations want to throw Russia out of the G-20. China has opposed them.
    • India will be chair of the G-20 from December 2022.
    • Meanwhile, India is being hectored by officials from the U.S. and the U.K. to support their sanctions on Russia.
    • India has so far refused to be cowed down.

    Backlash against globalisation

    • The belief that unfettered flows of finance and trade across national borders will lift people in all poor countries out of poverty and make the world flatter in terms of inequality has failed.
    •  Strong leaders who put the interests of their own countries first are gaining power through elections — in Turkey, Hungary, Poland, Russia, and even India.
    • Free market capitalism is not ideologically compatible with a genuine democracy.
    • Capitalist institutions are governed by the fundamental principle of ‘property rights’.
    • Whereas, genuine democracies are founded on the principle of equal human rights.
    • The rules of governance of capitalist and democratic institutions have always been in tension within societies.
    • Capitalist institutions want to be unfettered by democratic regulations to make it easier to do business.
    • Democratic institutions want to rein in the competitive animal spirits of capitalism to create a more compassionate capitalism.

    Conclusion

    To prevent violence, it is essential that global governance becomes genuinely democratic. Countries must not attack each other. But they must be given the freedom to evolve their own democracies and economies and not be dictated to by others.

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  • What is the UK-Rwanda Asylum Plan?

    The United Kingdom has signed a deal with Rwanda to send some asylum seekers to the East African nation — a move that PM Boris Johnson said will “save countless lives” from human trafficking.

    Immigrants crisis in UK

    • Since 2018, there has been a marked rise in the number of refugees and asylum seekers that undertake dangerous crossings between Calais in France and Dover in England.
    • Most such migrants and asylum seekers hail from war-torn countries like Sudan, Afghanistan, and Yemen, or developing countries like Iran and Iraq.
    • The Britain that has adopted a hardline stance on illegal immigration, these crossings constitute an immigration crisis.
    • The Nationality and Borders Bill, 2021, which is still under consideration in the UK, allows the British government to strip anyone’s citizenship without notice under “exceptional circumstances”.
    • The Rwanda deal is the operationalization of one objective in the Bill which is to deter illegal entry into the United Kingdom.

    What is the Rwanda Deal?

    • The UK and Rwanda Migration and Economic Development Partnership or the Rwanda Deal is a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the two governments.
    • Under this deal, Rwanda will commit to taking in asylum seekers who arrive in the UK on or after January 1, 2022, using illegally facilitated and unlawful cross border migration.
    • Rwanda will function as the holding centre where asylum applicants will wait while the Rwandan government makes decisions about their asylum and resettlement petitions in Rwanda.
    • Rwanda will, on its part, accommodate anyone who is not a minor and does not have a criminal record.

    Rationale of the deal

    • The deal aims to combat “people smugglers”, who often charge exorbitant prices from vulnerable migrants to put them on unseaworthy boats from France to England that often lead to mass drownings.
    • The UK contends that this solution to the migrant issue is humane and meant to target the gangs that run these illegal crossings.

    What will the scheme cost the UK?

    • The UK will pay Rwanda £120 million as part of an “economic transformation and integration fund” and will also bear the operational costs along with an, as yet undetermined, amount for each migrant.
    • Currently, the UK pays £4.7 million per day to accommodate approximately 25,000 asylum seekers.
    • At the end of 2021, this amounted to £430 million annually with a projected increase of £100 million in 2022.
    • The Rwanda Deal is predicted to reduce these costs by outsourcing the hosting of such migrants to a third country.

    Will the Rwanda Deal solve the problem of illegal immigration?

    • This deal will be implemented in a matter of weeks unless it is challenged and stayed by British courts.
    • While Boris Johnson’s government is undoubtedly bracing for such legal challenges, it remains unclear if the Rwanda Deal will solve the problem of unlawful crossings.
    • Evidence from similar experiences indicates that such policies do not fully combat “people smuggling”.

    Criticisms of the deal

    • Several activists, refugee and human rights organizations have strongly opposed the new scheme.
    • There are dangers of transferring refugees and asylum seekers to third countries without sufficient safeguards.
    • The refugees are traded like commodities and transferred abroad for processing.
    • Such arrangements simply shift asylum responsibilities, evade international obligations, and are contrary to the letter and spirit of the Refugee Convention.
    • Rwanda also has a known track record of extrajudicial killings, suspicious deaths in custody, unlawful or arbitrary detention, torture, and abusive prosecutions, particularly targeting critics and dissidents.

    Do any other countries send asylum seekers overseas?

    • Yes, several other countries — including Australia, Israel and Denmark — have been sending asylum seekers overseas.
    • Australia has been making full use of offshore detention centres since 2001.
    • Israel, too, chose to deal with a growing influx of asylum seekers and illegal immigrants from places like Sudan and Eritrea by striking deals with third countries.
    • Those rejected for asylum were given the choice of returning to their home country or accepting $3,500 and a plane ticket to one of the third countries.
    • They faced the threat of arrest if they chose to remain in Israel.

     

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  • A fatal friendship with Beijing

    Context

    China’s intervention has proved disastrous for the economies of Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

    China-Myanmar relations and its implications

    • Myanmar, China’s closest neighbour with a long history of cross border trade, was the first country to voluntarily turn towards Beijing, from 1988, when the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) took over the reins of government.
    • World sanctions followed, but Beijing reassured the generals of its continued support and in 1989, signed a treaty of trade and cooperation that made China the sole supporter of the illegitimate military government.
    • The strong western sanctions after 2007, made China virtually its sole trading partner.
    • The link with China became essential for the regime’s survival but did little to increase economic prosperity.
    • Wood alone accounts for about 70 per cent of Myanmar’s exports to China.
    • It’s clear that China is stripping bare Myanmar’s centuries-old teak forests.

    Implications for Pakistan

    • In 2012,  Pakistan signed on to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor.
    • New Delhi and Washington imagined wrongly that the CPEC would lead to a major People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) expansion into the Indian Ocean through Gwadar, which even now is a largely disused port.
    •  As a conservative IMF estimate put it, Islamabad’s poor management of the economy and reckless borrowing has put its immediate financial needs (2022) at $51 billion.
    • Projects chosen are unviable like the Gwadar port and the Lahore Metro and attracted huge public criticism. The CPEC was put on hold and rebooted.
    • The IMF warned Islamabad of the CPEC repayment boosting the current account deficit, forcing Pakistan to cut Chinese interest payments for 10 years.
    • The CPEC has been a humbling experience for China and an economic disaster for Pakistan.

    Implications for Sri Lanka

    • Against all economic surveys and advice, the Hambantota port was built, it floundered and Sri Lanka transferred the land as equity to China for 99 years.
    • From 2012 to 2016, China accounted for 30 per cent of all FDI to Sri Lanka, becoming the top source of foreign investment
    • Today China is funding 50 projects in the country, involving more than $1 billion, including the Colombo Port and the Lakvijaya thermal power plant.
    • Today, the Sri Lankan economy is in complete meltdown, with China holding the largest amount of Sri Lankan debt.
    • Private banks have run out of funds to finance imports. Its main sources of revenue, tourism and remittances, have dried up, and the government is in a crisis.

    Conclusion

    The recourse to availing Chinese money by Myanmar, Pakistan and Sri Lanka has led to a feeling of hubris among the leaders, inducing them to take bad economic decisions in the perception that Beijing is footing the bills.

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