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Subject: International Stories of Key Importance

  • The war’s many victims

    Context

    Beyond Ukraine’s borders, far beyond the media spotlight, the war has launched a silent assault on the developing world. This crisis could throw up to 1.7 billion people — over one-fifth of humanity — into poverty, destitution and hunger on a scale not seen in decades.

    Impact of the war on the developing world

    • Ukraine and the Russian Federation provide 30 per cent of the world’s wheat and barley, one-fifth of its maize, and over half of its sunflower oil.
    • Together, their grain feeds the poorest and most vulnerable people, providing more than one-third of the wheat imported by 45 African and least-developed countries.
    • At the same time, Russia is the world’s top natural gas exporter, and second-largest oil exporter.
    • But the war is preventing farmers from tending their crops while closing ports, ending grain exports, disrupting supply chains and sending prices skyrocketing.
    • The World Food Programme has warned that it faces the impossible choice of taking from the hungry to feed the starving.
    • It urgently needs $8 billion to support its operations in Yemen, Chad and Niger.
    • But while much of the world has stepped up in solidarity with the people of Ukraine, there is no sign of the same support for the 1.7 billion other potential victims of this war.

    The Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance

    • The group aims to develop coordinated solutions to these interlinked crises, with governments, international financial institutions and other key partners.
    • 1] On food, the group is urging all countries to keep markets open, resist hoarding and unjustified and unnecessary export restrictions, and make reserves available to countries at the highest risk of hunger and famine.
    • 2] On energy, the use of strategic stockpiles and additional reserves could help to ease this energy crisis in the short term.
    • But the only medium- and long-term solution is to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy.
    • 3] And on finance, the G20 and international financial institutions must go into emergency mode.
    • They must find ways to increase liquidity and fiscal space, so that governments in developing countries can invest in the poorest and most vulnerable, and in the Sustainable Development Goals.
    •  Social protection, including cash transfers, will be essential to support desperate families through this crisis.
    • But many developing countries with large external debts do not have the liquidity to provide these safety nets.

    Conclusion

    The only lasting solution to the war in Ukraine and its assault on the poorest and most vulnerable people in the world is peace.

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  • Why is the Black Sea crucial to Russia?

    The sinking of the huge Russian warship Moskva whether due to a Ukrainian missile strike or, as Russia claims, a fire on board — is a serious setback for Russia in the Black Sea.

    About Black Sea

    • The famed water body is bound by Ukraine to the north and northwest, Russia and Georgia to the east, Turkey to the south, and Bulgaria and Romania to the west.
    • It links to the Sea of Marmara through the Bosphorus and then to the Aegean through the Dardanelles.

    Significance of Black Sea for Russia

    • Domination of the Black Sea region is a geostrategic imperative for Moscow.
    • Black Sea has traditionally been Russia’s warm water gateway to Europe.
    • For Russia, the Black Sea is both a stepping stone to the Mediterranean.
    • It acts as a strategic buffer between NATO and itself.
    • It showcases the Russian power in the Mediterranean and to secure the economic gateway to key markets in southern Europe.
    • The Rhine-Main-Danube canal connects the Black Sea to the Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea and the port of Odessa serves as a vital link between Ukraine and the outside world.

    Black Sea in the Ukraine war

    • Russia has been making efforts to gain complete control over the Black Sea since the Crimean crisis of 2014.
    • During the ongoing invasion, the domination of the Black Sea has been a major Russian objective, along with the land bridge to connect Russia and Crimea.
    • As such, there have been intense efforts to capture Mariupol, the Sea of Azov port in the breakaway eastern Ukrainian oblast of Donetsk.
    • Mariupol appeared close to falling to the Russians.

    Sinking of the Moskva

    • The sinking of the Moskva is believed to be the worst loss in the history of naval warfare.
    • It was sunk by shore-based anti-ship cruise missiles which took advantage of bad weather and used decoy UAV attacks to defeat the ship’s air defence systems.
    • It demonstrates the success of outside-the-box measures adopted by Ukraine in the war.

     

    Must answer this PYQ in the comment box:

    Q.Consider the following pairs:

    Sea Bordering country
    1. Adriatic Sea Albania
    2. Black Sea Croatia
    3. Caspian Sea Kazakhstan
    4. Mediterranean Sea Morocco
    5. Red Sea Syria

    Which of the pair given above are correctly matched? (CSP 2020)

    (a) 1, 2 and 4 only

    (b) 1, 3 and 4 only

    (c) 2 and 5 only

    (d) 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5

     

  • Explained: Red Star over Solomon Islands

    A recent leaked document has revealed that the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific has reached a deal with China. This has raised alarms in Washington and Canberra.

    Where is the Solomon Islands located?

    • The Solomon Islands is a sovereign country consisting of six major islands and over 900 smaller islands in Oceania, to the east of Papua New Guinea and northwest of Vanuatu.
    • Its capital, Honiara, is located on the largest island, Guadalcanal.
    • It is part of the ethnically Melanesian group of islands in the Pacific and lies between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.
    • The country takes its name from the Solomon Islands archipelago, which is a collection of Melanesian islands that also includes the North Solomon Islands (a part of Papua New Guinea).
    • It excludes outlying islands, such as the Santa Cruz Islands and Rennell and Bellona.

    Quick recap of its past

    • The islands, which were initially controlled by the British Empire during the colonial era, went through the hands of Germany and Japan.
    • It then went back to the UK after the Americans took over the islands from the Japanese during World War II.
    • The islands became independent in 1978 to become a constitutional monarchy under the British Crown, with a parliamentary system of government.
    • Nevertheless, its inability to manage domestic ethnic conflicts led to close security relations with Australia, which is the traditional first responder to any crisis in the South Pacific.

    What are the contents of the proposed deal?

    • The Framework Agreement has the potential to disturb the established security mechanisms in the South Pacific region.
    • The document explicitly enables Beijing to send its “police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces” to the islands on the latter government’s request, or if the former sees that the safety of its projects and personnel in the islands are at risk.
    • The document also provides for China’s naval vessels to utilise the islands for logistics support.
    • There have been speculations in the wake of this revelation that China might be building its next overseas naval base in Solomon Islands after Djibouti.

    What is the rationale for the Solomon Islands’ increasing proximity to China?

    • The Solomon Islands had cultivated strong ties with Taiwan, which ended with the emergence of the current government in Honiara.
    • In 2019, the regime change switched Taiwan for China.
    • This was supposedly after Beijing offered half a billion US dollars in financial aid, roughly five times what Taiwan spent on the islands in the past two decades.
    • It has been alleged by the pro-Taiwan Opposition that the incumbent government has been bribed by China.

    Why is China interested in the Solomon Islands?

    • Isolating Taiwan: The Solomon Islands was one among the six Pacific island states which had official bilateral relations with Taiwan.
    • Supporter in UN: The small Pacific island states act as potential vote banks for mobilising support for the great powers in international fora like the United Nations.
    • Larger EEZ: These states have disproportionately large maritime Exclusive Economic Zones when compared to their small sizes.
    • Natural resources: Solomon Islands, in particular, have significant reserves of timber and mineral resources, along with fisheries.
    • Countering US: But more importantly, they are strategically located for China to insert itself between America’s military bases in the Pacific islands and Australia.

    What does this mean for the established geopolitical configuration in the region?

    • Diminishing western influence: The Pacific islands, in the post-World War II scenario, were exclusively under the spheres of influence of the Western powers, in particular the US, UK, France and Australia and New Zealand.
    • Inserting into western hegemony: All of them have territorial possessions in the region, with the three nuclear powers among them having used the region as a nuclear weapons testing ground.
    • Shifting of dependencies: The smaller island nations of the region are heavily dependent on them, especially Australia as it is a resident power.

    Damage control by West

    • Australia has reacted with boosted finances, and by extending its current security mission till 2023 when the islands will host the Pacific Games.
    • The US has responded by considering reopening its embassy in Honiara after a long 29-year gap.
    • New Zealand has shed its typical restraint about China and has criticised it for attempting to militarise the Pacific islands.

    Chinese response to Indo-Pacific

    • It is to be noted that China’s rise in the South Pacific is not without opposition.
    • AUKUS is a recent example of how the established powers are reacting; although, to what extent they can mobilize individual governments against China is questionable.
    • Significant discontent has been brewing within and among the Pacific island states against China’s economic inroads and its adverse impact on their vulnerable economic and political systems.

     

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  • BRICS and the creation of a multipolar world

    Context

    The current crisis in Ukraine will consolidate BRICS as the group will make further efforts to become a real alternative to the West to create a real multipolar world.

     BRICS’ efforts to change world economic system

    • The group was brought together by geopolitical rather than economic considerations and this can be seen in the strategic interests shared by Russia and China.
    • Inclusion of non-Western states in international financial institutions: BRICS is actively involved in the efforts to change the world economic system by increasing the number of non-Western states in international financial institutes.
    • The BRICS countries decided to create the $100 billion BRICS Development Bank and a reserve currency pool worth over another $100 billion to offer an alternative to countries in the non-Western world when it comes to choosing the sources of funding for development or coping with serious economic crises.

    Consequences of Ukraine crisis for BRICS

    •  It demonstrates that the West has not abandoned the idea of a unipolar world and will continue building it up by drawing into its foreign policy orbit issues it calls “international” or even “common to mankind.”
    • Many non-Western states look at this as a new wave of colonialism.
    • This will increase the desire of non-Western countries to enhance their coordination and perhaps the current conflict is already showing signs in this respect.
    • The BRICS states are different in many respects and their disagreements with the West are rooted in different historical and political circumstances.
    • The current crisis in Ukraine will consolidate BRICS as the group will make further efforts to become a real alternative to the West to create a real multipolar world.
    • RIC controls 22 per cent of the global GDP and 16 per cent of global exports of goods and services.
    • The fallout from Russia’s alienation from the G-8 group of nations, raises the prospect that — tactically at least — Russia, India, and China might be playing their own triangular integrationist card within BRICS at Moscow’s initiative.
    • Eurasian integrationist core: This will create a north Eurasian integrationist core within BRICS, whichever way Moscow’s relations with the US and Europe play out.

    Implications for India

    • Both the Asian giants — India and China — may stand to reap the “best of both worlds” as the Ukraine imbroglio plays out.
    • Investment: This could mean greater industrial and energy cross investments between Russia and India as well as between Russia and China.
    • Additionally, the proposed arrangement for rupee-ruble cross currency pairing could result in settlement of payments in non-dollar currencies with more countries looking at India’s sovereign Financial Messaging Systems (SFMS), while also remaining connected with a central system like SWIFT.
    • Dedicated payment mechanism: This should also anchor India’s quest to build a dedicated payment mechanism for energy-related payments and settlements as a long-haul measure.
    • This could change the contours of the global payments landscape and benefit the rupee immensely.

    Spotlight on India

    • As the war progresses, New Delhi has been receiving a stream of high-profile visitors from around the world.
    • This has included delegations from the US, Australia and Japan, India’s partners in the Quad.
    • The foreign minister of Greece has also been to India and the Israeli prime minister is scheduled to visit soon.
    • Even traditional rival China is making overtures to India at this time, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit.
    • Another suitor is Russia, which is now also becoming a supplier of discounted crude oil to India as Moscow recoils from sanctions enforced by western consumers of its natural gas.

    Conclusion

    New Delhi is basking in its well-deserved spotlight with well-crafted diplomacy. India could be looking at a new dawn.

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  • India-Nepal relationship

    Context

    The Nepal Prime Minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba, paid a long-awaited visit to India last week (April 1-3). Sworn in in July 2021, this was his first bilateral visit abroad, in keeping with tradition.

    Positive outcomes of the visit

    • Among the highlights was the operationalisation of the 35 kilometre cross-border rail link from Jayanagar (Bihar) to Kurtha (Nepal). 
    • The second project that was inaugurated was the 90 km long 132 kV double circuit transmission line connecting Tila (Solukhumbu) to Mirchaiya (Siraha) close to the Indian border.
    • In addition, agreements providing technical cooperation in the railway sector, Nepal’s induction into the International Solar Alliance, and between Indian Oil Corporation and Nepal Oil Corporation on ensuring regular supplies of petroleum products were also signed.
    • The Mahakali Treaty covers the Sarada and Tanakpur barrages as well as the 6,700 MW (approximately) Pancheshwar Multipurpose project.
    • Both sides have agreed to push for an early finalisation of the detailed project report.
    • The joint vision statement on power sector cooperation recognises the opportunities for joint development power generation projects together with cross border transmission linkages and coordination between the national grids; it can provide the momentum.

    Issues in India-Nepal relations

    • Over the years, a number of differences have emerged between India and Nepal that need attention.
    • The relationship took a nosedive in 2015, with India first getting blamed for interfering in the Constitution drafting process and then for an “unofficial blockade” that generated widespread resentment against India.
    • Revision of Treaty of  Peace and Friendship: As one of the oldest bonds, the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship was originally sought by the Nepali authorities in 1949 to continue the special links they had with British India.
    • It provides for an open border and for Nepali nationals to have the right to work in India.
    • But today, it is viewed as a sign of an unequal relationship, and an Indian imposition.
    • The idea of revising and updating it has found mention in Joint Statements since the mid-1990s.
    • Demonetisation is another irritant. In November 2016, India withdrew ₹15.44 trillion of high value (₹1,000 and ₹500) currency notes. Many Nepali nationals who were legally entitled to hold ₹25,000 of
    • Indian currency (given that the Nepali rupee is pegged to the Indian rupee) were left high and dry.
    • The Nepal Rashtra Bank, which is the central bank, holds ₹7 crore and estimates of public holdings are ₹500 crore.
    • After more than five years, it should certainly be possible to resolve this to mutual satisfaction.
    • Kalapani boundary issue: These boundaries had been fixed in 1816 by the British, and India inherited the areas over which the British had exercised territorial control in 1947.
    • While 98% of the India-Nepal boundary was demarcated, two areas, Susta and Kalapani remained in limbo.
    • In November 2019, India issued new maps following the division of the State of Jammu and Kashmir as Union Territories, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
    • Though the new Indian map did not affect the India-Nepal boundary in any material way, a new map of Nepal was endorsed by the legislature through a constitutional amendment.
    • While it did not alter the situation on the ground, it soured relations with India and added a new and emotive irritant.

    Way forward

    • The political narrative has changed in both countries and these issues can no longer be swept under the carpet or subsumed by invoking a ‘special relationship’.
    • Part of the success of Mr. Deuba’s visit was that none of the differences was allowed to dominate the visit.
    • Yet, to build upon the positive mood, it is necessary these issues be discussed, behind closed doors and at Track 2 and Track 1.5 channels.

    Conclusion

    The need today is to avoid rhetoric on territorial nationalism and lay the groundwork for quiet dialogue where both sides display sensitivity as they explore what is feasible. India needs to be a sensitive and generous partner for the “neighbourhood first” policy to take root.

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  • In endgame of Vienna nuclear talks, Tehran holds the cards

    Context

    Iran’s foreign minister during his recent visit to Syria, noted that Iran and the major powers, who have been negotiating a mutual return to the Iran nuclear deal — or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — over the last eleven months, were closer to an agreement “than ever before”.

    Issues in the negotiation over Iran’s return to JCPOA

    • The ongoing eighth round of talks between Iran and P4+1, has been going on since December 27, 202.
    • These issues remaining are understood to be Tehran’s demand for guarantees against another withdrawal in the future, the verifiable lifting of all US sanctions, and the IAEA investigation into Iran’s past nuclear activities.
    • Guarantees against another withdrawal: On the issue of guarantees against another withdrawal, Iran is no longer demanding legal guarantees from Washington.
    • Lifting all sanctions: Tehran has refused to retreat from its uncompromising stance on the lifting of all US sanctions, while the Biden administration has so far been prepared to lift only those “inconsistent” with the deal.
    • Another key sticking point, though not directly related to the nuclear deal, is Iran’s demand that President Biden reverse his predecessor’s designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation.

    Concerns

    •  Western interlocutors are alarmed by Iran’s shrinking breakout time — the time needed for gathering enough weapons-grade uranium to make a single nuclear warhead.
    • Also, they are concerned that the longer Iran stays outside the agreement, the more nuclear expertise and fissile material it will accumulate, thus making the original deal obsolete.
    • Thus, time is of the essence for reaching an agreement that will turn the clock back on Iran’s nuclear activities.

    Conclusion

    Iran uses its nuclear activities as a bargaining counter to seek an agreement that will best serve its interests. So, the early conclusion of the deal is important to turn the clock back on Iran’s nuclear activities.

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    Back2Basics: What is JCPOA

    • The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a agreement reached by Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) on July 14, 2015.
    • The nuclear deal was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231, adopted on July 20, 2015.
    • Iran’s compliance with the nuclear-related provisions of the JCPOA is verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) according to certain requirements set forth in the agreement.
    • Despite Iran’s verified compliance with the deal, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018, and subsequently re-imposed all U.S. sanctions on Iran lifted by the accord.
    • Then-U.S. President Donald Trump cited the deal’s sunset provisions and its failure to account for Iran’s ballistic missile program, among other things, as impetus for withdrawal from the accord.

  • Places in news: Solomon Islands

    The Solomon Islands has defended plans to sign a security deal with Beijing that could allow China to boost its military presence in the South Pacific island nation. This has left Australia very concerned.

    Solomon Islands

    • Solomon Islands is a sovereign country consisting of six major islands and over 900 smaller islands in Oceania, to the east of Papua New Guinea and northwest of Vanuatu.
    • It has a land area of 28,400 square kilometres and a population of 652,858.[10] Its capital, Honiara, is located on the largest island, Guadalcanal.
    • The country takes its name from the Solomon Islands archipelago, which is a collection of Melanesian islands.
    • It also includes the North Solomon Islands (a part of Papua New Guinea), but excludes outlying islands, such as the Santa Cruz Islands and Rennell and Bellona.
    • The islands have been settled since at least some time between 30,000 and 28,800 BCE, with later waves of migrants, notably the Lapita people, mixing and producing the modern indigenous Solomon Islanders population.

     

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  • Time for India to redefine its relationship with Russia

    Context

    Russia’s war on Ukraine has decisively shaped international opinion. Indian foreign policy is also going to be affected in a profound manner.

    India’s foreign policy conundrum

    • Russia’s attack on Ukraine has put New Delhi in a foreign policy conundrum that will not disappear soon because Russia’s action has changed the global order.
    • India has not directly criticised Moscow’s action.
    • Memories of the historic Indo-Soviet partnership still seem to tip the scales when it comes to India’s vote at the UNSC.
    • Western countries have criticised India’s repeated abstentions at the UNSC on the issue of the Russian invasion.
    • The Western world has imposed unprecedented sanctions against Russia and banned energy imports.
    • New Delhi is concerned about the impact of these sanctions on global finance, energy supplies, and transportation, amid growing signs that they will constrain India’s ability to import Russian oil.

    India’s challenges

    • Russia’s increasing dependence on China: What must worry India is the fact that Russia will now become increasingly dependent on Chinese support to defend its policies.
    • The collapsing ruble, the punishing sanctions, and the dire state of the Russian economy will push Russia further into China’s military and economic orbit.
    • China’s challenge in Indo-Pacific: India’s real strategic challenge is surfacing in the Indo-Pacific with the rise of China, as Beijing has consistently sought to expand its zone of military, economic and political influence through the Belt and Road Initiative.
    • Though India would like the U.S. to continue to focus on China, it is not possible for Washington to ignore Russia’s aggression along NATO’s periphery.

    How India’s ties with Russia changed over time

    • Since the end of the Cold War, Indians have been debating the contours of strategic autonomy.
    • For one section the doctrine of ‘multi-alignment’ is the 21st century avatar of strategic autonomy as India has been expanding its engagement with all the major powers.
    • Following the disintegration of the USSR, India joined Russia and China against the unipolarity of the U.S.
    •  For some time, this common concern about unipolarity put the three countries on the same path towards mutual cooperation and understanding.
    • Later, Brazil and South Africa were also brought into this coalition.
    • However, it soon became clear that India and China did not see eye to eye.
    • Moreover, India was determined to maintain its partnership with Russia, an important arms supplier.
    • Its ties with the U.S. have also improved significantly since the end of the Cold War.
    • But continuing dependence on Russian weaponry has become India’s strategic headache.

    Way forward for India

    •  Under Mr. Putin, Russia is in a state of transition, swinging wildly from one crisis to another.
    • Therefore, it is too risky for India to pursue vague aims vis-à-vis Russia in these uncertain times.
    • A NATO-Russia Council was formed specifically to alleviate Russia’s concerns, and that Russia was recognised as one of the world’s leading industrial powers through a formal admission into the elite G-7.
    • Though Moscow has drifted much closer to Beijing, and is sharply critical of India’s engagement with the U.S. and the Quad, India finds it difficult to extend support to Ukraine.
    • It goes without saying that the U.S. is the country most likely to bolster India’s future as a great power.

    Conclusion

    It is not going to be easy for New Delhi to maintain its balancing act in the future as Washington hardens its position further. It is inevitable that during this time of diplomatic and strategic uncertainty, New Delhi needs to be ready to radically redefine its relationship with Moscow.

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  • Why ICJ order on Ukraine matters

    Context

    The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Russia to immediately suspend its military operations in Ukraine. In short, to end the war instantly.

    Breach of the Genocide Convention

    • Ukraine moved the ICJ against Russia accusing it of falsely claiming that Ukrainians are committing genocide in their territory and using this untruthful premise to start an illegal war.
    • This, Ukraine believes, breaches its rights under the Genocide Convention — a treaty that is binding to both Russia and Ukraine.
    • This decision was rendered by the ICJ in response to Ukraine’s application for indication of provisional measures under Article 41 of the ICJ Statute.
    • Provisional measures under the ICJ Statute are the international equivalent of an interim injunction that can be provided by the court to preserve the rights of the parties pending a final decision on the merits of the case.

    Three reasons cited by the ICJ

    1] ICJ’s jurisdiction in the case

    • Since 2014, Russia has been repeatedly accusing Ukraine of committing genocide in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
    •  Just before the military invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned ending the genocide in Ukraine as the reason to use force.
    • Ukraine vehemently rejects this charge.
    • Prima facie, this shows the existence of a “dispute” under Article IX of the Genocide Convention — the compromissory clause that bestows jurisdiction on the ICJ.
    • Self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter: Russia contended that its formal basis for use of force against Ukraine was its right to self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter (a patently illegal argument, but this issue is not before the ICJ).
    • The court held that it had prima facie jurisdiction in the case because the subject matter fell under the Genocide Convention.

    2] Preservation of rights claimed by the parties

    • Ukraine argues that it has a right under the Genocide Convention not to be falsely accused of genocide and rely on this wrong pretext to use force against its territorial integrity.
    • The ICJ held that the objective of indicating provisional measures is the preservation of the rights claimed by the parties, pending the decision on merits.
    • Since the current proceedings were only for provisional measures, the ICJ did not decide definitively whether Ukraine has such a right under the Genocide Convention.
    • Nonetheless, the ICJ found Ukraine’s right plausible, which is adequate for the current purposes.
    • While the court did not decide on whether Russia has breached the Genocide Convention, as this is a question of merits, it did express doubt over whether a country can unilaterally use force against another country for punishing or preventing an alleged act of genocide.

    3] Risk of irreparable harm to Ukraine’s rights

    • The ICJ held that if it does not indicate provisional measures, that is, order cessation of military action, there is a real and imminent risk of irreparable harm to Ukraine’s rights.
    • This is because of the magnitude of destruction that the ongoing war has caused.

    Significance of the order

    • ICJ’s decision is binding on Russia and constitutes part of its international legal obligations.
    • However, the remedy for not complying with ICJ rulings lies with the UN Security Council, which has Russia as a permanent member.
    • But just because authoritarian populist leaders like Vladimir Putin don’t care for international law does not diminish its significance.

    Conclusion

    The weight of global opinion against Russia on its egregious abuse of international law is mounting with each passing day. Russia can keep ignoring this only at grave peril to itself.

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  • On South Asia, US must reorient itself

    Context

    On the external front, Russia’s Ukraine war and the Sino-Russian alliance are setting the stage for a reordering of South Asia’s great power relations.

    Opportunity for the US in South Asia

    • If it looks beyond the region’s immediate response to the war in Ukraine, Washington can seize the current opportunity to elevate the US’s salience for the Subcontinent in partnership with India.
    • The Indo-Pacific strategy offers new pathways for the US to limit the traditional economic and military weight of China and Russia in the Subcontinent.

    Three regional trends in South Asia

    1] Decline of Pakistan’s influence

    • In the wake of the missile accident, Islamabad moved to seek international intervention, including from the UN Secretary-General.
    • But there were few takers for this old South Asian formula, except in Beijing.
    • Underlining the peremptory dismissal of Islamabad’s concerns is a deeper trend — the relative decline of Pakistan’s international standing.
    • Since his election, US President Joe Biden has refused to call Imran Khan, who runs a “major non-NATO ally”; high-level visitors from Washington now skip Pakistan during South Asia visits.
    • Chinese and Russian official visitors are among the few to combine trips to Delhi and Islamabad.
    • Islamabad’s decline after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is likely to accelerate amidst Pakistan’s deepening domestic political chaos.
    • With an economy that is smaller than that of Bangladesh and limited prospects for rapid growth in the coming years, Pakistan will find it hard to match its traditional claim for “strategic parity” with India.

    2] Declining interest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia

    •  Just a couple of years ago, China’s commercial march into South Asia seemed unstoppable. Not any longer.
    • Troubles in Pakistan and Sri Lanka: Pakistan and Sri Lanka, which embraced the BRI with great gusto, are South Asia’s two worst-performing economies.
    • The deepening economic crises are compelling the elites of Pakistan and Sri Lanka to focus on non-Chinese financial sources to stabilise their economies.
    • Sri Lanka, which ostentatiously refused to accept $480 million developmental assistance from the US in 2020, is now desperately looking for hard currency support for its sinking economic fortunes.
    •  In Nepal, the dominant communists had made political opposition to US infrastructure assistance of $500 million as a life and death issue for a decade.
    • At the end of last month, Nepal’s parliament ratified the US loan that will facilitate Nepal’s infrastructure development and its economic integration with the Subcontinent.

    3] The growing possibilities for US security cooperation with the Subcontinent

    • During the Cold War, the US military engagement was limited to Pakistan.
    • In the 21st century, there has been a steady expansion of US defence cooperation with India.
    • The current focus on the Indo-Pacific is getting Washington to modernise the defence partnerships with the smaller countries of the region.
    • The Trump Administration discarded the traditional obsession with Pakistan and began to recognise the strategic significance of the smaller South Asian states for its Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • The visit of US Undersecretary of State to Bangladesh over the weekend saw progress towards signing the so-called GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement) that codifies the commitment to protect classified military information.

    Conclusion

    Reversing that must necessarily involve deeper security cooperation with the region and developing alternatives to military dependence on Beijing and Moscow. This is best done in partnership with Delhi.

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