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  • Why China trade ban is bad idea

    After the Galwan Valley skirmish, the popular idea resonating in Indian streets is that Indians should boycott Chinese goods and thus “teach China a lesson”.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. India’s quest for self-reliance is still a distant dream. Critically comment in light of the popular sentiment against the Chinese imports in India.

    There are several reasons why the #Boycott_China is an ill-advised move:

    A. Trade deficits are not necessarily bad

    • Trade deficits/surpluses are just accounting exercises and having a trade deficit against a country doesn’t make the domestic economy weaker or worse off.
    • Example: If one looks at the top 25 countries with whom India trades, it has a trade surplus with the US, the UK and the Netherlands. But this does not make Indian economy better than them.

    What does this deficit indicate?

    • Both Indian consumers and Chinese producers are gainer through trading.
    • One gets the market other cheap price. Thus, both are better off than what they would have been without trade.

    So, having a trade deficit is good?

    • Of course, running persistent trade deficits across all countries raises two main issues.
    • One, availability of foreign exchange reserves to “buy” the imports.
    • Today, India has more than $500 billion of forex — good enough to cover imports for 12 months.
    • Two, lack of domestic capacity to produce in the most efficient manner.

    B. Will hurt the Indian poor the most

    • This is because poor are more price-sensitive.
    • For instance, if Chinese TVs were replaced by either costlier Indian TVs or less efficient ones, unlike poor, richer Indians may buy the costlier option.
    • Similarly, the Chinese products that are in India are already paid for. By banning their sale or avoiding them, Indians will be hurting fellow Indian retailers.
    • Again, this would hit poorest retailers more due to inability to cope with the unexpected losses.

    C. Will punish Indian producers and exporters

    • Several businesses in India import intermediate goods and raw materials, which, in turn, are used to create final goods — both for the domestic Indian market as well as the global market (as Indian exports).
    • An overwhelming proportion of Chinese imports are in the form of intermediate goods such as electrical machinery, nuclear reactors, fertilizers, optical and photographic measuring equipment organic chemicals etc.
    • Such imports are used to produce final goods which are then either sold in India or exported.
    • A blanket ban on Chinese imports will hurt all these businesses at a time when they are already struggling to survive, apart from hitting India’s ability to produce finished goods.

    D. Will barely hurt China

    • While China accounts for 5% of India’s exports and 14% of India’s imports — in US$ value terms — India’s imports from China are just 3% of China’s total exports.
    • More importantly, China’s imports from India are less than 1% of its total imports.
    • The point is that if India and China stop trading then — on the face of it — China would lose only 3% of its exports and less than 1% of its imports.
    • However, India will lose 5% of its exports and 14% of its imports.

    Issues

    • On the whole, it is much easier for China to replace India than for India to replace China.
    • Ban can also seize Chinese funding to many Indian businesses (the start-ups with billion-dollar valuations).
    • In short term, replacing Chinese products with Japan or Germany, will only increase our total trade deficit.
    • If on the other hand, we decide to use Indian products, that too would cost us more — albeit just internally.

    E. India will lose policy credibility

    • It has also been suggested that India should renege on existing contracts with China.
    • This can be detrimental for India’s effort to attract foreign investment.
    • As one of the first things an investor — especially foreign — tracks is the policy credibility and certainty.
    • If policies can be changed overnight or if the government itself reneges on contracts, investor will either not invest or demand higher returns for the increased risk.

    F. Raising tariffs is mutually assured destruction

    • Many argue that India should just slap higher import duties on Chinese goods or apply prohibitive tariffs on final goods.
    • By doing this, firstly India would be violating rules of the World Trade Organization.
    • Secondly, it would make China and many others to reciprocate in the same way.

    Equating border dispute with trade is no panacea

    • The first thing to understand is that turning a border dispute into a trade war is unlikely to solve the border dispute.
    • Worse, given India and China’s position in both global trade as well as relative to each other, this trade war will hurt India far more than China.
    • Thirdly, these measures will be most poorly timed since the Indian economy is already at its weakest point ever — facing a sharp GDP contraction.

    Way forward

    • In long term, under the banner of self reliance, India must develop its domestic capabilities and acquire a higher share of global trade by raising its competitiveness.
    • But no country is completely self-sufficient and that is why trade is such a fantastic idea.
    • It allows countries to specialize in what they can do most efficiently and export that good while importing whatever some other country does more efficiently.
    • Need of hour is well thought and balanced approach.

  • Parliamentary Committees and their Significance

    Amid the on-going India-China border tension, a Parliamentary Standing Committee report on Sino-India relations post the Doklam standoff has been released. It assumes significance as it is the only detailed report on the border issue that has been made available to the public.

    Try this question from our AWE initiative:

    Q.2) What are parliamentary committees? How do they ensure legislature’s and executive’s efficiency and accountability? (250 Words)

    Report on Sino-Indian relations post Doklam

    • Submitted by the Shashi Tharoor-led Standing Committee on External Affairs, the report on Sino-India relations including Doklam throws light on border situation and cooperation in international organisations,
    • This Standing Committee report – a bipartisan one as the committee has members from ruling and opposition parties – is one of the very few documents available in which the defence and foreign secretaries.
    • It clarified the government’s official position on India-China border issues including the reported transgressions by the Chinese in the region.
    • It had cautioned the government that it needed to have “healthy scepticism” while dealing with China.
    • The Committee has urged the Government not to let its vigil down in order to prevent any untoward incident in future.

    What are the Parliamentary Committees?

    • A good deal of Parliamentary business is transacted in the committees. Both Houses of Parliament have a similar committee structure, with a few exceptions.
    • Their appointment, terms of office, functions and procedure of conducting business are also more or less similar and are regulated as per rules made by the two Houses under Article 118(1) of the Constitution.
    • Broadly, Parliamentary Committees are of two kinds – Standing Committees and ad hoc Committees.
    • The former are elected or appointed every year or periodically and their work goes on, more or less, on a continuous basis.
    • The latter are appointed on an ad hoc basis as the need arises and they cease to exist as soon as they complete the task assigned to them.

    Their significances

    • Apart from debates on bills and issues discussed and debated on the floor of the House, more detailed and in-depth discussions take place on issues as well as legislation in the parliamentary standing committees.
    • Here, MPs belonging to all major parties put forward their views without much consideration to the political differences they have.
    • A considerable amount of legislative work gets done in these smaller units of MPs from both Houses, across political parties.
    • Their reports are tabled in both Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha. The Houses do not hold a specific debate on the report, but it is often referred to during the discussions on the bills and the key issues.
    • Committee meetings also provide a forum where members can engage with domain experts as well as senior-most officials of the concerned ministries.

    Additional readings: https://knowindia.gov.in/profile/the-union/parliamentary-committees.php

  • Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

    Indian officials attended the virtual 32nd special Eurasian Group on Combating Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism (EAG) plenary meeting, under the aegis of the FATF.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. What is FATF? Discuss its role in combating global financial crimes and terror financing.

    What is the FATF?

    • FATF is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1989 on the initiative of the G7 to develop policies to combat money laundering.
    • The FATF Secretariat is housed at the OECD headquarters in Paris.
    • It holds three Plenary meetings in the course of each of its 12-month rotating presidencies.
    • As of 2019, FATF consisted of 37 member jurisdictions.
    • India became an Observer at FATF in 2006. Since then, it had been working towards full-fledged membership. On June 25, 2010, India was taken in as the 34th country member of FATF.

    EAG of FATF

    • The EAG is a regional body comprising nine countries: India, Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Belarus.
    • It is an associate member of the FATF.

    What is the role of FATF?

    • The rise of the global economy and international trade has given rise to financial crimes such as money laundering.
    • The FATF makes recommendations for combating financial crime, reviews members’ policies and procedures, and seeks to increase acceptance of anti-money laundering regulations across the globe.
    • Because money launderers and others alter their techniques to avoid apprehension, the FATF updates its recommendations every few years.

    What is the Black List and the Grey List?

    • Black List: The blacklist, now called the “Call for action” was the common shorthand description for the FATF list of “Non-Cooperative Countries or Territories” (NCCTs).
    • Grey List: Countries that are considered safe haven for supporting terror funding and money laundering are put in the FATF grey list. This inclusion serves as a warning to the country that it may enter the blacklist.

    Consequences of being in the FATF grey list:

    • Economic sanctions from IMF, World Bank, ADB
    • Problem in getting loans from IMF, World Bank, ADB and other countries
    • Reduction in international trade
    • International boycott

    Pakistan and FATF

    • Pakistan, which continues to remain on the “grey list” of FATF, had earlier been given the deadline till the June to ensure compliance with the 27-point action plan against terror funding networks.
    • It has been under the FATF’s scanner since June 2018, when it was put on the Grey List for terror financing and money laundering risks.
    • FATF and its partners such as the Asia Pacific Group (APG) are reviewing Pakistan’s processes, systems, and weaknesses on the basis of a standard matrix for anti-money laundering (AML) and combating the financing of terrorism (CFT) regime.

  • Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

    The Government of India and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has signed a $750 million agreement for “COVID-19 Active Response and Expenditure Support Programme”.

    Try this question from CSP 2019

    Q.With reference to Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), consider the following statements

    1. AIIB has more than 80 member nations.
    2. India is the largest shareholder in AIIB.
    3. AIIB does not have any members from outside Asia.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 and 3 only

    (c) 1 and 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

    What’s so special about this assistance?

    • This is the first-ever budgetary support programme from the AIIB to India.
    • The project is being financed by the AIIB and Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the amount of $2.250 billion, of which $750 million will be provided by AIIB and $1.5 billion will be provided by ADB.
    • The package aims to assist India to strengthen its response to the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on poor and vulnerable households.
    • The current loan will be the second to India from AIIB under its COVID-19 crisis recovery facility apart from the earlier approved $500 million loans.
    • The primary beneficiaries would be families below the poverty line, farmers, healthcare workers, women, women’s SHGs, widows, PWDs, senior citizens, low wage earners etc.

    About AIIB

    • The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a multilateral development bank with a mission to improve social and economic outcomes in Asia, began operations in January 2016.
    • AIIB has now grown to 102 approved members worldwide.
    • AIIB is a brainchild of China. The prime aim of the AIIB is infrastructure development.
    • By establishing interconnectivity across Asia through advancement in the construction of infrastructure and other productive services, the AIIB can stimulate growth and economic development in the Asian Region.

    Must read:

    International Economic Institution’s: ADB, BRICS Bank, AIIB

  • ‘Ring of Fire’ Solar Eclipse

    A rare celestial event, an annular solar eclipse popularly called as the ‘ring of fire’ eclipse, will be visible on June 21, 2020 from some parts of Northern India. The first solar eclipse of this year takes place on the summer solstice, which is the longest day in the Northern Hemisphere.

    Try this question from CSP 2019:

    Q. On 21st June, the Sun

    (a) Does not set below the horizon at the Arctic Circle

    (b) Does not set below the horizon at Antarctic Circle

    (c) Shines vertically overhead at noon on the Equator

    (d) Shines vertically overhead at the Tropic of Capricorn

    What is the Solar Eclipse?

    • A Solar Eclipse happens when the moon while orbiting the Earth comes in between the sun and the Earth, due to which the moon blocks the sun’s light from reaching the Earth, causing an eclipse of the sun or a solar eclipse.
    • According to NASA, people who are able to view the total solar eclipse are in the centre of the moon’s shadow as and when it hits the Earth.
    • There are three types of eclipses: one is a total solar eclipse, which is visible only from a small area on Earth. A total solar eclipse happens when the sun, moon and Earth are in a direct line.
    • The second type of a solar eclipse is a partial solar, in which the shadow of the moon appears on a small part of the sun.

    Annular Solar Eclipse

    • The third kind is an annular solar eclipse, which happens when the moon is farthest from the Earth, which is why it seems smaller.
    • In this type of an eclipse, the moon does not block the sun completely, but looks like a “dark disk on top of a larger sun-coloured disk” forming a “ring of fire”.
    • Furthermore, during a solar eclipse, the moon casts two shadows on the Earth; the first one is called the umbra, which gets smaller as it reaches the Earth.
    • The second one is called the penumbra, which gets larger as it reaches the Earth.
    • According to NASA, people standing in the umbra see a total eclipse and those standing in the penumbra see a partial eclipse.

    Why the study of solar eclipse is crucial?

    • One of the reasons that NASA studies solar eclipses is to study the top layer of the sun called the corona.
    • During an annular eclipse, NASA uses ground and space instruments to view this top layer when the sun’s glare is blocked by the moon.

    Back2Basics: Summer Solstice

    • The summer solstice occurs when one of the Earth’s poles has its maximum tilt toward the Sun.
    • It happens twice yearly, once in each hemisphere (Northern and Southern).
    • For that hemisphere, the summer solstice is when the Sun reaches its highest position in the sky and is the day with the longest period of daylight.
    • Within the Arctic circle (for the northern hemisphere) or Antarctic circle (for the southern hemisphere), there is continuous daylight around the summer solstice.
    • On the summer solstice, Earth’s maximum axial tilt toward the Sun is 23.44°. Likewise, the Sun’s declination from the celestial equator is 23.44°.

  • Species in news: Horseshoe Crab

    Horseshoe crabs face an uncertain future in Odisha, their largest habitat in India, even as the world gets ready to celebrate the first-ever ‘International Horseshoe Crab Day’ on June 20, 2020.

    Try this question from CSP 2012:

    Q. Which one of the following groups of animals belongs to the category of endangered species?

    (a) Great Indian Bustard, Musk Deer, Red Panda and Asiatic Wild Ass

    (b) Kashmir Stag, Cheetal, Blue Bull and Great Indian Bustard

    (c) Snow Leopard, Swamp Deer, Rhesus Monkey and Saras (Crane)

    (d) Lion-tailed Macaque, Blue Bull, Hanuman Langur and Cheetal

    Horseshoe Crabs

    IUCN status: (Data insufficient for the Indian variant)

    • Horseshoe crabs are marine and brackish water arthropods. They are not true crabs, which are crustaceans.
    • The crabs are represented by four extant species in the world. Out of the four, two species are distributed along the northeast coast of India.
    • Only T gigas species of the horseshoe crab is found along Balasore coast of Odisha.
    • The crab was included on September 9, 2009, in the Schedule IV of the Wild (Life) Protection Act, 1972, under which, the catching and killing of a horseshoe crab is an offence.

    Their significance

    • The horseshoe crab is one of the oldest marine living fossils whose origin date back to 445 million years before the dinosaurs existed.
    • One of their ecological functions is to lay millions of eggs on beaches to feed shorebirds, fish and other wildlife.

    Threats

    • Poachers kill them for their meat that is popularly believed to have aphrodisiac qualities.
    • The blood of horseshoe crabs, which is blue in colour, is used for detection of bacterial endotoxins in medical applications.

  • [Burning Issue] Blockchain Technology and COVID-19

     

    The coronavirus has impacted countries, communities and individuals in countless ways, from school closures to health-care insurance issues, not to undermine loss of lives. As governments scramble to address these problems, different solutions based on blockchain technologies have sprung up to help deal with the worldwide crisis.

     

    What is Blockchain Technology?

    Simply, blockchain is decentralized, distributed and public digital ledger.  Blockchains is a new type of network infrastructure (a way to organize how information and value move around on the internet) that create ‘trust’ in networks by introducing distributed verifiability, auditability, and consensus.

    Blockchains create trust by acting as a shared database, distributed across vast peer-to-peer networks that have no single point of failure and no single source of truth, implying that no individual entity can own a blockchain network, and no single entity can modify the data stored on it unilaterally without the consensus of its peers.

    New data can be added to a blockchain only through agreement between the various nodes of the network, a mechanism known as distributed consensus. Each node of the network keeps its own copy of blockchain’s data and keeps the other nodes honest – if one node changes its local copy, the other nodes can reject it.

    imagine a blockchain as a ledger—because that’s essentially how most blockchains function. Each block of data represents some new transaction on the ledger, whether that means a contract or a sale or whatever else you’d use a ledger for.

    Interestingly, blockchains leverage techniques from a field of mathematics and computer science, known as cryptography, to sign every transaction (e.g. the transfer of assets from one person to another) with a unique digital signature belonging to the user who initiated the transaction.

    Blockchains and Cryptocurrency – How it all began?

    A cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security.  The Bitcoin protocol is built on the blockchain.

    • Bitcoin is an example of electronic or digital currency that works on a peer-to-peer basis.
    • Bitcoins can be sent digitally to anyone who has a bitcoin address anywhere in the globe. One person could have multiple addresses for different purposes – personal, business and the like.
    • A bitcoin is not printed currency but is a non-repudiable record of every transaction that it has been through. All this is part of a huge ledger called the blockchain.

    There’s also a new cryptocurrency called Libra rolled out by Facebook.

    • Initially, blockchain technology was linked to cryptocurrency only but today it’s application are widespread.

    Various uses of Blockchain in fighting COVID-19

    Blockchain could be used to improve a variety of healthcare-related processes, including record management, healthcare surveillance, tracking disease outbreaks, management crisis situations and many more.

    1) Tracking Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    • Blockchain can be used for tracking public health data surveillance, particularly for infectious disease outbreaks such as COVID-19.
    • With increased blockchain transparency, it will result in more accurate reporting and efficient responses.
    • Blockchain can help develop treatments swiftly as they would allow for rapid processing of data, thus enabling early detection of symptoms before they spread to the level of epidemics.

    2) Donations Tracking

    • As trust is one of the major issues in donations, Blockchain has a solution for this issue.
    • There has been a concern that the millions of dollars being donated for the public are not being put to use where needed.
    • With the help of blockchain capabilities, donors can see where funds are most urgently required and can track their donations until they are provided with verification that their contributions have been received to the victims.

    3) Crisis Management

    • Blockchain could also manage a crisis situation. It could instantly alert the public about the Coronavirus by global institutes like the WHO using smart contracts concept.
    • Not only it can alert, but Blockchain could also enable to provide governments with recommendations about how to contain the virus.
    • It could offer a secure platform where all the concerning authorities such as governments, medical professionals, media, health organizations, media, and others can update each other about the situation and prevent it from worsening further.

    4) Securing Medical Supply Chains

    • Blockchain has already proven its success stories as a supply chain management tool in various industries; similarly, it could also be beneficial in tracking and tracing medical supply chains.
    • Blockchain-based platforms can be useful in reviewing, recording, and tracking of demand, supplies, and logistics of epidemic prevention materials.
    • As supply chains involve multiple parties, the entire process of record and verification is tamper-proof by every party, while also allowing anyone to track the process.

    6) Education

    • ‘Certificates’ are a means of verifying the credentials of individuals across domains and geographies. A paper-based certification is fallible to manipulation and susceptible to fraud.
    • The blockchain-based SuperCert promises anti-fraud identity intelligence blockchain solution for educational certificates.
    • The immutability feature of blockchain ensures that tampering of certificate is not feasible – both the content of the certificate and the identity of the certificate holder.

    7) Finance

    • Blockchain integration in financial transactions will not only save time and money, but it will also make the transaction processing and authentication process much more seamless.
    • Furthermore, Blockchain can be an excellent tool to monitor money laundering and black money accumulation – since all transactions are permanently stored on the Blockchain network, every transaction is accountable.
    • Blockchain is also capable of dealing with issues like double spending and unauthorized spending.
    • With Covid panic on use of cash currency, here one may find alternatives too.

    Various Challenges in adopting Blockchains

    Any transformative technology, in its initial stages of development, as it moves out of the research/development phase to first few applications to large scale deployment, faces several challenges.

    • There is no confidence in the technology: It is still an innovation. Building trust in the network represents a challenge for blockchain.
    • High costs and complexity of blockchain.
    • Lack of understanding comes next as many executives have a vague understanding of blockchain and the changes it will bring. Many still connect it only with cryptocurrencies management.
    • A general lack of standards is also a problem. Blockchain-specific vocabulary is insufficient; its terminology is both scarce and new.
    • A lack of general regulation is a problem. The Supreme Court of India has ruled against a decision imposed by the country’s central bank nearly two years ago that stifled crypto trading in Asia’s third-largest economy.
    • Vague data regulation in countries due to poor laws and policy is one more issue.
    • Lack of blockchain talent: Whenever a groundbreaking technology emerges, the developer community needs time and resources to accommodate the new demand.
    • Energy consumption The majority of blockchains present in the market consume a high amount of energy. It requires high amounts of computation power to solve a complex mathematical problem to verify and process transactions and to secure the network. Add to this the energy needed to cool down the computers, and the costs increase exponentially.

    Blockchain: the India imperative

    India has a unique strategy for the Government to take the lead in creating public digital infrastructure and allowing private sector innovation to leverage Blockchain for further development.

    NITI Aayog has released recommendations to establish India as a vibrant blockchain ecosystem. The suggested recommendations include:

    • Regulatory and policy considerations for evolving a vibrant blockchain ecosystem
    • IndiaChain: Creation of a national infrastructure for the deployment of blockchain solutions with inbuilt fabric, identity platform and incentive platform
    • India as blockchain hub: promotion of research and development in blockchain, in addition, to focus on skilling of workforce and students
    • Procurement process for government agencies to adopt blockchain solutions
    • Cryptocurrencies for India: Pegged stable coin for Indian Rupee for seamless exchange for blockchain solutions. This may be in conjunction with the need for re-evaluating cryptocurrencies.

    Way Forward

    • Although India is still at the nascent stage in exploring Blockchain technology, it holds is immense potential for Blockchain applications.
    • The key lies in overcoming the challenges faced during the early adoption phase – if we can get past the obstacles in the initial stage, Blockchain tech can be put to good use to strengthen the Indian economy.
    • The days of blockchain application have just begun and as with any new technology, blockchain will hit a few roadblocks especially with the government’s regulators across the globe.
    • As the true essence of blockchain application is to take the power away from the hands of the powerful by decentralizing information and handing it over to the people- democracy in true sense.
    • Nonetheless as with any movement, if people see the value the technology brings into their lives they will rally behind it and blockchain application will become mainstream in most industries in the coming years.

    Conclusion

    By providing help in the COVID-19 crisis and recovery, blockchain can play a pivotal role in accelerating post-crisis digital transformation initiatives and solving those problems highlighted in the current system.

    However, at the present moment, blockchain is not the panacea of all the problems. While the promise and potential of blockchain are undoubtedly transformative, it is still in the nascence of its evolution.

    Keeping a tab on this technology and our capacities is the right direction we can head towards.

  • Postscript to a tragedy at Galwan

    The article suggests the approach that India should adopt in its policy toward China. Long term view of the situation is crucial. But some short term steps is also necessary.

    Prelude to 1962 War

    • Revolt in Tibet and granting asylum to the Dalai Lama in March 1959 can be seen as start of tensions in relations.
    •  In October 1959, there was a face-off between Indian and Chinese troops at Kongka La.
    • With the conflict in 1962,  there was very little room for a reasoned, negotiated settlement on the boundary question between the two countries.

    2020 is not same as 1959 for both India and China

    • Both nations have grown immensely in strength and stature on the world stage – even military wise.
    • Their relations have substance and a diversity of content in a manner absent in the 1950s – like the economic relations.
    • Hence, there is a need to not blame each other and find solutions instead of descent towards a full-blown conflict with China.

    Weighing the options carefully

    • India at present is struggling at multiple fronts:
    • 1) COVID-19 crisis demands the full attention of the government.
    • 2) Economy is stagnant and needs recovery.
    • 3) Tensions on other fronts – Pakistan persist and Nepal dispute in the Lipulekh/Kalapani area.
    • Thus, the call by warmongers should be evaluated, that too critically.

    Evolving comprehensive China policy

    • Strong political direction, mature deliberation and coherence are keys to handling the situation.
    • Army’s role can involve tactical adjustments and manoeuvres to deter the Chinese.
    • But comprehensive China strategy should be left to those tasked with national security policy.
    • Chinese transgressions in Sikkim and Ladakh can provide learning lessons for our future strategy.
    • A complete strategy would involve military, diplomatic and political levels.

    Future plan of action – Defence

    • India should take the initiative on a timely and early clarification of the LAC.
    • Identify areas of conflict and mark such areas as demilitarized by both sides through joint agreement.
    • At the same time, India must stand resolute and firm in the defence of territory in all four sectors of the border.
    • Contacts between the two militaries — joint exercises and exchanges of visits of senior Commanders — should be scaled down for short term future.
    • Diplomatic channels must continue to be open and should not be restricted in any way as they are essential in the current situation.
    • A border settlement is part of long term strategy.

    Future of business, trade and investment between two countries

    • Indian businesses in China and Chinese business operations in India can expect tougher future.
    • The scenario on trade and investments could encounter similar obstacles.
    • Areas of on national security, as in the cyber field and in telecommunications (5G) should take necessary reduction in import of Chinese items.

     India should strengthen alliances

    • The events in Galwan Valley should be a wake-up call to re invent it’s South and east Asia policy.
    • This is an opportunity for India to align its interests much more strongly with the U.S. as a principal strategic partner.
    • India should also infuse more energy into its relations with Japan, Australia, and the ASEAN.
    • The time has also come for India to reconsider its stand on joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
    • To disengage from economic involvement with China, and build the capacities and capabilities it needs in manufacturing, and in supply chains networks closer home, India has to think in the long terms.

    Consider the question “The context of changing relations with China has forced India to reconsider the depth of its engagement with other countries. In light of this examine the changes India’s foreign policy adopt in dealing with other countries.”

    Conclusion

    Galwan incident is a wake up call for us. In every aspect, engagement with China needs a re look. And that also includes an increased level of engagement in South Asian neighborhood.

  • Revealing the secrets Arctic holds

    This article is about Polarstern, is an icebreaker, which traversed the Arctic Ocean to study the aspects related to ice there. Here, we will look at some of these aspects. These aspects are-monitoring of the ice, difficulty in measuring the thickness, rate of melting of ice and relations with cloud formation.

    Arctic: A recorder and driver of climate change

    How is it a recorder of climate change?

    • It is a recorder because of two co-related factors, these are-
    • 1) The visible difference between ice and water.
    • 2) The obvious relationship between global temperatures and the amount of ice around.
    • Two factors together shows in an easily graspable way how things are changing.
    • The extent of the Arctic sea ice in summer has declined by 30% in the past 30 years, and that loss is accelerating (see chart).

    How is it a driver of climate change?

    • The Arctic is also a driver of climate change, because the whiteness of ice means it reflects sunlight back into space, thus cooling Earth.
    • Whereas the darkness of open water means it absorbs that light.
    • The less of the reflection of sunlight and the more absorption of light will result in a faster rise in global temperatures.

    Monitoring the Arctic’s ice

    • At the moment this is monitored mainly by satellite.
    • Measuring the extent of the Arctic’s ice from space is easy.
    • Measuring its thickness is trickier.
    • From orbit, this is done by a mixture of radar and laser beam.
    • Icesat 2, an American craft, provides laser-altimeter data that record the height above sea level of the top of the snow that overlies the ice.
    •  Cryosat 2, a European one, uses radar to penetrate the snow and measure the height of the top of the ice itself.
    • The thickness of the ice in a particular place can then be calculated by applying Archimedes’ principle of floating bodies to the mixture of ice and snow, and subtracting the thickness of the snow.
    • But there is a view that the data collected by these two satellites may be inaccurate, leading to an overestimation of the ice’s thickness.

    Let’s understand why the data about thickness could be inaccurate

    • When all is working perfectly, the return signal for Cryosat 2 comes exactly from the boundary between the ice and any overlying snow.
    • But, that this is not always what happens.
    • Variables such as layering within the snow, along with its temperature and salinity, might affect the returning radar signal by changing the snow’s structure and density.
    • This could cause the signal to be reflected from inside the snow layer, rather than from the boundary where it meets the ice.
    • If that were happening, it would create the illusion that the ice beneath the snow is thicker than is actually the case.

    How topography of Arctic ice matters

    • Though sea ice is solid, it is not rigid.
    • It forms but a thin skin on the ocean—varying in depth from around 30cm in summer to a couple of metres in winter—so is readily moved by wind and current.
    • As the ice moves it stretches and cracks in some places.
    • Large cracks formed in this way are called leads, because they are wide enough to “lead” a ship.
    • In other places, by contrast, movement makes the ice thicker.
    • As individual panes of ice butt up against each other, they create ridges that can be metres high.
    •  But even from the ship’s deck one can watch leads opening and ridges forming around the vessel.
    • Observations suggest that winter the ice has been particularly mobile—and has thus become particularly rough, with a surprising number of ridges.

    So, how these ridges affect the rate at which ice melts?

    • These ridges may affect the rate at which the ice melts—but to complicate matters, this could happen in two opposing ways.
    • Ridges make ice thicker, and thicker ice melts more slowly.
    • On the other hand, a ridge projects down into the sea as well as up into the air (Archimedes, again), so it may stir up water from below the surface.
    • Deep water is warmer than the surface layer, so this stirring would serve to increase melt rates.
    • Moreover, to add to the confusion, ridges are prone to having pieces of ice fall off them into the sea, to form small blocks known as brash.
    • This brash, having more surface area per unit volume than unbroken ice, melts faster.

    How cloud formation is affected by cracks in Arctic ice

    • On most parts of Earth clouds form as droplets of water condense around “seeds” of dust or organic molecules.
    • In the Arctic, there is little dust.
    • Biological activity, too, is in short supply compared with elsewhere—and is, moreover, conducted mainly below the barrier of the sea ice.
    • It might, therefore, be expected that there would be few seeds present for clouds to form around.
    • And yet, clouds are present.
    • Cloud seeds there tended to be compounds containing sulphur, nitrogen, chlorine, bromine or iodine.
    • Presence of these molecules suggests their link with cracks in the ice sheets.
    • This means that more cracks in the ice sheet could lead to more clouds in the Arctic.
    • What overall effect that might have on the climate is unclear.
    • Summer clouds would reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the planet.
    • Those formed in winter, when the sun is below the horizon, would serve as insulation, warming it.
    •  Two opposite outcomes are possible—or perhaps the net effect will be that they cancel each other out.

    Conclusion

    Properly disentangling the interactions between Arctic ice, atmosphere and ocean life will require data collected across a full year—for the contrast between winter and summer at the poles is greater than anywhere else on the planet.

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