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This post is a part of an ongoing series to help IAS aspirants prepare for International Relations.

As of July 2015, India has been accorded full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) along with Pakistan at its Ufa summit held in Russia.

• SCO is a Eurasian economic, political and military organisation
• HQ: Beijing, China
• Established: 2001 in Shanghai by the leaders 6 countries viz. China, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan
• Since 2005, India was having an Observer status of SCO and had applied for full membership in 2014. India would be finally ratified in the member list by 2016

Connecting the dots with SCO

Per Chinese and Russian scholars, creation of SCO helped address the security problems and enhance economic cooperation in the Central Asia region. The Western discourse, however, has tended to see the SCO as a mechanism to counter-balance the influence of the United States in the region. Both are correct!

SCO is considered and tagged as anti-west. Behind the veils, it is alleged that SCO is going to be a NATO like military alliance in East. You might expect a question on that line and be asked to put India’s context in place.

However, China exaggeratedly says that the SCO was founded on a principle of non-alignment and functions as an effective stabilizer for regional security and peace. China has always maintained that the focus of SCO is on combating the “three evil forces” – terrorism, separatism, and extremism – and other unconventional security menaces.

Advantage India?

There are multiple benefits for India as well as the SCO which is concerned with security and stability in the Eurasian space.

1. India’s presence will help moderate the anti-West bias of the grouping, which will calm Washington’s nerves to a considerable extent
2. Greater engagement with India will also aid the organisation’s capability to improve regional economic prosperity and security
3. Membership will give India an opportunity to play an active role in China’s Silk Road initiative which plans to link a new set of routes from the north and east of the country to an old network of routes in the greater Eurasian region.
4. Indian interest in International North-South Transport Corridor to connect Mumbai with Abbas port in Iran. This route is shorter than the existing Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea
5. SCO may also serve as guarantor for projects such as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) and Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipelines, which are held by India due to security concerns.

India’s entry is also likely to tip the balance of power in favor of peace and stability in Afghanistan.

Challenges ahead for SCO?

It is naive to expect that India’s differences with China regarding the border or its ties with Pakistan will magically disappear. The inclusion of Pakistan in the SCO will also make it difficult for India to enjoy a level playing field.

Pakistan, which is embroiled in a domestic political crisis, may not be so willing to challenge hardliners in its country, and go along with India in promoting peace and stability in the Eurasian space. We have seen how Indo-Pak presence in SAARC makes it difficult to ink key pacts.

The clash of interests in a post – 2014 Afghanistan makes prospects of cooperation difficult. There is also a possibility that China may collude with Pakistan to suffocate India’s voice in the decision making process.

Other than that, India will have to balance the geopolitical ambitions of China and Russia to evolve a mutually beneficial framework.

Further readings:

SCO becomes a reasonably hot topic post India’s accession to the member status. If you are comfortable with IR, try these articles  –

•  India’s Stakes and Dilemma in SCO
• China-Pakistan Equation: Is it India’s Dilemma?

We discussed MGC and BIMSTEC in the last post here. We covered both of them in one single post and there is a reason for it.

Rule of thumb for assigning importance to an organisation (for IAS Mains or Pre)

• Who are the participating countries? Are they heavyweights?
• Any observers? When an international organisation catches interest, lot of countries line up for an observer status. This is a litmus test for the growing importance and credibility of an organisation because the world is starting to take notice!
• Was the organisation in news recently? A mild yes? Prelims worthy. If embroiled in some controversies (prolonged dialogues), then Mains worthy!

As of Feb 2016, MGC has 6 member countries & 0 observers. BIMSTEC has 7 member countries & 0 observers.

But our next guest – SAARC, has  8 member countries and 9 observers (including China, US, EU, Japan).

The South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) completed 3 decades of its existence in 2015. While it is impossible to compress its evolution in a single post, we will do well to get you upto speed and be aware of the major controversies surrounding SAARC (analysis, analysis and more analysis).

When? 1985

Origins:

Member countries – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Afghanistan joined SAARC as its eighth member state in April 2007.

Observers – States with observer status include Australia, China, the European Union, Iran, Japan, Mauritius, Myanmar, South Korea and the United States

After independence, the countries of South Asia, which under British colonial rule, functioned like a composite whole that had both transport linkages and economic inter-dependence, wanted to portray a more independent image.

They began functioning as autonomous economic units with protective trade regimes for the fear of political, economic autonomy in the region. These countries were often mired in bilateral conflicts (Indo – Pak, Pak – B.Desh) and that took a toll on region’s growth and prosperity. Hence, SAARC charter was build around a common goal of improving the foreign relations within the region.

As a founding philosophy, SAARC prudently kept bilateral contentious issues out of the scope of the regional cooperation. It was believed that the inclusion of bilateral issues would hamper multilateral initiatives. SAARC was not set up as a bilateral dispute settlement mechanism. Did that really help evolve SAARC into a better organisation? We shall see.

Why do nations come together to form groupings?

Short answer – Economics & power struggle!

Long answer –

1. Nepal – had difficulties with India on various issues. Harnessing Nepal’s river water was one of the key considerations. Nepal wanted to diversify technical cooperation on hydroelectricity with other countries (to avoid complete dependence on India)
2. Bangladesh – Another country which was suspicious of India and wanted to diversify its foreign relations. At that time Bangladesh had serious problems with India on the issue of the sharing of the Ganga water. Even though bilateral struggles were kept outside the purview of SAARC, Bangladesh had a hope to become a major player in the region
3. Sri Lanka – was initially reluctant to join SAARC. However, due to its own ethnic crisis it became interested in the association expecting it would help assuage some of its apprehensions regarding India
4. Pakistan – Only one goal – counter India’s influence
5. Bhutan & Afghanistan – Let’s leave them for time being!

Feel good about India’s overarching influence in the region for a moment.

What were the mandates for SAARC and how far has it come to fulfill them?

The SAARC Charter clearly lays down that cooperation among member-states will be based on sovereign equality, territorial integrity, political independence and non-interference in internal affairs.

The Charter further states that such cooperation will not be an obstacle to other bilateral or multilateral cooperation or be inconsistent with them.

Brings us back to the point that SAARC chose to keep bilateral disputes out of discussion and focus on the multilateral (economic, strategic) issues. This did not always work in its favour. Smaller member countries often found it difficult to overcome their political goals and limited national agendas. This often stalled progress.

Want to read about one such issue with SAARC?

• The Nepal Earthquake: Could SAARC have been Effective? While the international community extended help for the rescue and relief operations immediately after the earthquake struck Nepal on 25 April, SAARC as a regional organization was conspicuous by its absence

How does SAARC carries on with its activities?

On the administration side, the SAARC Secretariat established in Kathmandu is supported by Regional Centres established in Member States. They are quite a few and not so relevant for your exam prep. Suffice to say that, SAARC members are supposed to meet every year (Annual Summits).

In the last 30 years, we have witnessed 18 summits. The last one was held at Kathmandu in 2014 and the motto was – ‘Deeper Integration for Peace and Prosperity’.

 The 19th SAARC summit is to be held in Pakistan sometime in 2016.

How did the 18th Summit (2014) go?

1. The theme of the summit was “Deeper Integration for peace and prosperity.” But member countries failed to sign two major agreements on rail and road connectivity
2. The pact on energy was signed though! This will enable greater cooperation in the power sector
3. Why were the rail and road connectivity agreements not signed? Pakistan held back, saying it still had to complete its “internal processes” regarding these pacts
4. Any new initiative proposed by India? 
   • India promised to launch a satellite for the region by SAARC Day in 2016
   • Set up a Special Purpose facility in India to finance infrastructure projects in the region
   • Ease business visas by launching a SAARC business traveller card
   • Suggestions for establishing a SAARC regional Supra Reference laboratory to fight common diseases (TB, HIV)

China’s intrusion into SAARC?

1. Pakistan called for a more prominent role for observers in the future—mostly China
2. Nepal and Sri Lanka also support this, and China itself is actively seeking a greater role in SAARC
3. India responded by saying that economic cooperation between the existing members must be strengthened before expanding membership. Close shave!

Comparing ASEAN with SAARC

#1. SAARC is a lost cause – The motivation for launching these two forums – ASEAN (for south east asia) & SAARC (for south asia) were almost similar. Both were guided by a common hope to resolve disputes and a thirst for economic growth.

Asean members had serious interstate disputes which they decided to forget. On the other hand, Saarc members insisted that disputes be resolved first, before economic cooperation could start. Asean nations were inclined to be trading nations; Saarc nations were inclined to be warlike. Asean moved to conflict-avoidance mechanisms; Saarc refused to discuss bilateral disputes.

Saarc had to suffer an Indo-Pakistan war at Kargil started by Pakistan in 1999, which prevented three Saarc summits from taking place. India has given Pakistan the most favoured nation status but Pakistan has not reciprocated.

#2. It’s unfair to compare SAARC with ASEAN – The ASEAN countries did not have contested ideologies, such as the one based on two-nation theory (Indo-Pak). The countries comprising ASEAN came together to defend themselves from the communist threat. Such external threat was absent in the case of SAARC. Rather as you see above, India was considered as a threat by some member countries.

Fair enough! Let’s move to the economics of SAARC.

South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) and the complexities surrounding it

New to FTAs/ PTAs/ trade agreements in general? Read about the different types of trade agreements.

Safta was signed by the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries in January 2004, in Islamabad. The agreement was a migration from SAPTA to SAFTA (Preferential to Free).

India allows duty-free access to goods from Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh.We also reduced the ‘sensitive list’ it maintains for these countries to 25 items.

South Asian countries in general have competitive economies. The trade structure is mostly tilted towards primary goods. The countries of the region in general target their finished goods to foreign markets. Primary products are goods that are available from cultivating raw materials without a manufacturing process.

SAFTA was expected to bring down illegal trade

It was expected that SAFTA would bring much of the illegal trade in the region to the official level boosting all-round regional trade figures. Due to the lowering of tariff, many of the high custom duty items that are smuggled would become part of official trade. But that did not happen (to the satisfaction).

As reality would have it, SAFTA faces an existential dilemma

1. The volume of trade in actual terms (between SAARC nations) could is very small
2. Intra-regional trade is still at a dismal 5% — compared to 66% for the EU and about 25% for the ASEAN. Read more – here
3. The countries of South Asia have long negative lists and their protective trade regimes inhibit free flow of goods. Negative lists = lists of items kept outside the purview of agreement
4. Such obstacles and restrictions have given rise to smuggling and unofficial trade
5. The ‘rule of origin’ is a problematic clause since there are no efficient mechanisms to monitor and certify goods originating from the member countries

What’s the silver lining for SAARC?

Thankfully, with India pursuing its “Act East policy” with a new vigour, all is not lost. If you have been a regular with the Civilsdaily App’s Newscards, we have been closely following Indo-SAARC updates:

• India & Neighbours Foreign Policy Watch: India-SAARC Nations
• Raja-Mandala: Stumbling in the neighbourhood

If you have 20 minutes to spare, watch this RSTV sponsored discourse on 30 years of SAARC

This post is a part of an ongoing series – An IAS Aspirant’s guide to cracking International Relations

This post continues from the series on International Relations for IAS Prep. Read the essential posts here –

• An IAS Aspirant’s guide to cracking International Relations
• Analysis | Previous year’s IAS Mains questions from IR

Of late, UPSC has developed a knack of asking factual questions involving India’s membership status/ important reports/ foundation year etc. Here’s a quick mind map to set you up with bare basics of the asia region. We will cover each and every one of them in great detail to help you understand their origins and evolutions (wrt. India).

#1. Mekong Ganga Cooperation (MGC)

When? 2000

Origins: An initiative by 6 countries – India and 5 ASEAN countries, namely, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam

Relevance and Evolution

Both the Ganga and the Mekong are civilizational rivers, and the MGC initiative aims to facilitate closer contacts among the people inhabiting these two major river basins. Key areas of cooperation under MGC were tourism, culture, education, and transport & communications.

Despite ASEAN’s rhetoric and posturing, it remains a weak organisation incapable of handling serious challenges, economic or strategic. There has been a proliferation of trade groups carrying many (confusing!) acronyms.

With India’s elevated status in ASEAN by 2012, the time is ripe to enter the Mekong Region. Apart from reinforcing India’s security, it will remove economic isolation of the North East Region (NER).

There is a lack of connectivity between India, Myanmar and beyond and hence a need to build connecting corridors. Unlike the European Union, with nascent Asian economies we have to follow the “hub and spoke” process which impedes in the trade process.

Latest developments:

India hosted the 6th MGC Ministerial Meeting on September 4, 2012. New Areas of Cooperation added in the 6th MGC –

1. Conservation of Rice GermPlasm – A new area of mutually beneficial cooperation in rice production techniques and downstream processing projects
2. Enhancing cooperation among SME – India circulated a concept paper
3. Health – Aim is to strengthen the region’s capacity to respond to the menace of drug resistant malaria and other such emerging public health threats
4. Common Archival Resource Centre (CARC) at Nalanda University

#2. Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)

When? 1997 | HQ: Dhaka, Bangladesh

Origins: BIMSTEC started off as the Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand Economic Cooperation Group in 1997. Myanmar joined in 1997, while Nepal and Bhutan joined in 2004 when the first summit was held in Bangkok.

Relevance and Evolution

BIMSTEC is said to have been encouraged by India’s Look East Policy (LEP) and Thailand’s Look West Policy.

BIMSTEC was seen as a vital bridge between SAARC and ASEAN. Myanmar and Thailand are already in ASEAN while Japan is Thailand’s second-biggest export destination.

But in the present context, when the members of BIMSTEC have acquired memberships in various other regional/sub-regional organisations which also promote cooperation at different levels, it might not end up being that fruitful an organisation (that it was intended up to be).

BIMSTEC identified 14 priority areas where a member country takes lead. India is lead country for – 

• Transport & Communication
• Tourism
• Environment & Disaster Management
• Counter Terrorism & Transnational Crime

Advantage India?

Pakistan and China do not form member countries and this grouping provides India an opportunity to increase its sphere of influence.

India should be more proactive towards BIMSTEC to make its LEP 3.0 a success. BIMSTEC could help India to further increase its cooperation with countries located around the Bay of Bengal along with two of its adjuncts, namely Malacca Straits and Andaman Sea.

Transport & Communication being one of the priority focus areas – Better integration with North East region & East Asian economies is a theme to look forward to.

What has India done for BIMSTEC?

India and Thailand are the two main (rich) partners of BIMSTEC. With Thailand mostly embroiled in controversies, India is looked upon to take a lead and act as a catalyst. Remember the lead areas with India? Transport, Tourism, Environment  & Terrorism.

The last meeting (3rd Summit) @Nay Pyi Taw (New Capital of Myanmar) did not see any major outcomes, but a few of worth of mentioning here are –

1. 2015 was declared as the Year of BIMSTEC Tourism
2. The framework agreement on the BIMSTEC FTA was signed in 2004, but it is not yet fully operational. Read more here
3. Ratify conventions related to other areas of responsibilities

TIP: Whenever you think about the advantage of our associations with our north eastern neighbouring countries, think of two things –

1. Transportation woes
2. Fighting crime syndicates (terrorism, smuggling, narcotics and what not)

Consequently, our associations with them will look to establish new roads, routes and pacts to counter them. Of course, there is a lot in common with culture and agricultural produce etc etc. but you get the bigger picture right?

One such project is Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project in Myanmar. It was supposed to be completed by 2015, but sigh.

Time to Energize BIMSTEC

How long can SAARC (30+ year old organisation) wait for India and Pakistan to sort out their bilateral issues and push forward for the broader agenda of regional economic cooperation?

Given the current state of India-Pakistan relations, it is unlikely that Pakistan will agree to even a minimal set of economic cooperation arrangements within the SAARC framework, as was evident in Kathmandu when it refused to sign the multi-modal road and rail transport agreement. (Source – The Diplomat).

The most important driver is going to be the BIMSTEC Free Trade Area. While a Framework Agreement has been signed, it has yet to come into force. What is FTA? Read this post on trade agreement first. 

Point being that India needs to reallocate its priority with the new surge @ Act East and get the best out of these regional groupings where it can play a natural leader.

UPSC ke sawaal

#1. In the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, an initiative of six countries, which of the following is/are not a participant/ participants? (Pre 2015)

1. Bangladesh 
2. Cambodia 
3. China 
4. Myanmar 
5. Thailand

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

(a) 1 only  (b) 2, 3 and 4  (c) 1 and 3  (d) 1, 2 and 5

#2. “Compared to the South Asian Trade Area (SAFTA), the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation Free Trade Area (BIMSTEC FTA) seems to be more promising.” Critically evaluate. (Mains 2011)