In the intro, mention that sanctions on Russia and India’s dependence on it for defence procurement can pose serious challenges for India.
In the challenges mention technology challenges, structural issues, low fund allocation, procurement challenges etc. In the policy, measures mention the Defence Acquisition Policy (DAP) 2020 and the draft Defence Production and Export Policy (DDEP) 2020, hike in FDI limit in sector etc.
Conclude by mentioning the need for self-reliance in changing geopolitical landscape.
In the intro, mention that Ukraine agreed in 1994 to give up the nuclear weapons that it inherited from the Soviet Union in return for guarantees on Kyiv’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Clearly, those legal guarantees were no substitute for nuclear weapons.
In the body, mention that there is a growing concern in the region about whether the US nuclear umbrella or the so-called extended deterrence will work against the rapidly growing military power and nuclear clout of China. This is leading to change in position on nuclear options in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.
Conclude by mentioning that the US too is debating the deployment of new strategic weapon systems in Asia that might encourage China to pause before trying to emulate Russia’s Ukraine adventure. One way or another, Russia’s war in Ukraine is bound to transform the Asian nuclear landscape.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling in Ukraine, has triggered a far more consequential debate on the importance of atomic weapons in deterring Chinese expansionism.
Background
Ukraine agreed in 1994 to give up the nuclear weapons that it inherited from the Soviet Union in return for guarantees on Kyiv’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Clearly, those legal guarantees were no substitute for nuclear weapons.
Changing stand on nuclear weapons
Debate in Japan: In an important statement last week, the former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, called for a national debate on hosting American nuclear weapons on Japanese soil.
One element of the debate is the fact that nuclear weapons remain the greatest deterrent, especially against a vastly superior adversary.
Korea strengthening nuclear deterrence: In South Korea, which is electing its president this week, front-runner Yoon Suk-yeol has talked of strengthening Seoul’s nuclear deterrence against both Pyongyang and Beijing.
Taiwan and Australia developing nuclear submarine: Taiwan, is reportedly developing a nuclear-powered submarine that could offer some deterrence against a Chinese invading force.
Australia, which is working with the UK and the US to build nuclear-powered submarines, is accelerating the project after the Ukraine invasion.
Threat of escalation to nuclear war
The threat of escalation to the nuclear level was very much in the mind of NATO’s military planners when the alliance refused to be drawn into a firefight with Russia in Ukraine.
Moscow is also conscious of the fact that there are two nuclear weapon powers in Europe — Britain and France.
Nuclear sharing arrangement: Russia is also aware of the “nuclear sharing” arrangements between the US and some European allies — Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.
Under this framework, European allies host US nuclear weapons on their soil and authorise their armed forces to deliver American nuclear weapons on Russia.
Nuclear sharing also involves continuous consultations on nuclear doctrine and the planning of nuclear operations.
The US and its allies are also pursuing a “hybrid war” that boosts Ukrainian resistance against Russian armed forces and raises military, economic, and political costs of Moscow’s aggression.
Threat of China invading Taiwan
Taiwan is far more important for Asian (and global) security than Ukraine is for Europe.
Taiwan sits at the heart of the Western Pacific and straddles the sea line of communication in the world’s most dynamic economic arena.
It is the main source of silicon chips for the world.
When China conquers Taiwan it will dramatically transform the geopolitics of Asia.
As Putin becomes more dependent on China, Russia is bound to back Xi Jinping’s ambitions in Asia.
This is the context in which China’s eastern neighbours are taking a fresh look at the nuclear option.
Nuclear sharing arrangement: On the nuclear front, the debate in Japan and South Korea is about potential nuclear sharing arrangements with the US.
In Taiwan and Australia, the emphasis is on developing nuclear-powered submarines.
Deployment of strategic weapons: The US too is debating the deployment of new strategic weapon systems in Asia that might encourage China to pause before trying to emulate Russia’s Ukraine adventure.
Consider the question ” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is going to transform the nuclear landscape of Asia. Comment.”
Conclusion
One way or another, Russia’s war in Ukraine is bound to transform the Asian nuclear landscape.
Since 2011, the International Women’s Day is observed every year on March 8 to celebrate women’s rights and their social, economic, cultural and political achievements in various spheres. The day also symbolises a focal point in the women’s rights movement, attention to issues such as gender equality, reproductive rights, violence and abuse against women, and also action for accelerating gender parity. As the United Nations quoted “This International Women’s Day, let’s claim Gender equality today for a sustainable tomorrow”.
This year our students, and Team Members have shared their messages on this day.
#Breakthebias. Forget all the major things happening around the world and question yourself what are you contributing to it? By breaking the stereotypes of gender norms and roles, are we able to look at woman’s gender from the broader stance of her being a being first?
If we just start looking at gender from a being perspective. This debate of biasness, empowerment would take a backseat and then we will be moving towards a just society beyond compartmentalisation.
We’ll be able to look at being’s values, virtues, capabilities, hard work beyond any lens of gender identity.
It doesn’t matter to what gender you belong to, trans/woman/man, all have equal responsibility to empower women they’re surrounded with.
It has to start at home, build it to the nation, make it worldwide. Woman- refers to every individual who identifies herself as being a woman. #inclusive
Varsha Earth Mentor Civilsdaily
6 months of focus and hard work can put you 5 years ahead of life. Never underestimate the power of passion and consistency.
Shilpa CD Team member
WOMEN. This is our identity which makes us strong. Like we study many subjects in upsc , we also manage every subject in our lives . Like a plant, since we are born , we grow with so many different branches of emotions , like history we grow up listening to real empowered women and we ourselves want to become that one , like geography and nature , we beautifully embrace our all biological clocks that come with so many emotional and physical challenges . When we become a woman from a girl ,like fearless leaders we want a better growing world with an open mind just like our constitution, ethics. UPSC journey is not only about subjects or , we can create a more beautiful world by standing all together not just for a gender but for all just like our selfless mothers, wives , daughters , sisters and many more . For this we need to work hard with a balance just like UPSC teaches us . So to all my fellow aspirants , keep going , just sail through all hardship today , a clear shining sky is waiting tomorrow. Take care . Happy women’s day.
Shraddha Vyas Student UAP 22
So when the storm comes, instead of fighting the waves, ride them. Ride and awake that undaunting spirit in your heart to fight all the destructive energies which you’ve created in your mind. This negative energy is barely of perishable nature at your mental level. This is not in your heart. This must decay. The pious energy within you shall always be stronger to win in the end. This soulful energy has a permanent nature. This must strengthen. Also, there’s glory in actions. Give your best performance today. Live that happy woman in your everyday life!
Ritika Nigam Student Smash Prelims
Healing the society from sharp moral rupture….. She extrapolated a way better picture! Marginalized from mainstream,no right to vote….. She turned herself into the right antidote! They presumed their brilliance she never could tackle…… They’ve been warming up and she’s at the pinnacle! Submitting to customs was a cliched repeat…… She rose from the ashes defying defeat! And guiding mankind from graphite to ink….. She plays the character that makes men think!!!
NEO Student Nikaalo Prelims
The dreams of achieving big, The belief of doing great, Your way of scaling heights, The society has become more proud of you! The sacrifices you have made, The courage you have shown, The achievements you did despite all odds, The world has become more Harmonious because of you! The delight in your eyes, The chantness of joy in the voice, The love and faith you have manifested, The Earth has become more lively because of you!
Abhishek Student MEP
Woman being a single word itself is a sum of many words, be it patience, selfless love and care or immense strength. I totally agree with the saying that women are just like those tea bags , one can not realize its strength and potential unless it is poured in hot water. And this has been time and again proved when women were given this hot water like opportunities. So this women’s day i wish a very happy women’s day to all those women who come forward to fulfill their dreams, who stand against all odds of life, and who dare to raise their voice for their dignity and self respect.
Kaminee Sinha Student Super 25 Prelims
A sustainable future for the whole world is often looked at as a priority but one important aspect of it is often overlooked and that is ‘equal opportunity for women’. Since many years, owing to the persistent attitude of women in fighting for their place, rights and protection ,has been changing the deeply rooted flawed beliefs of society. It is the responsibility of every individual, nation, and organisation to help bring equality to each and every woman. And to achieve this , apart from institutional frameworks , there is a need for people and a woman herself to recognise and celebrate each and every milestone ,however big or small, achieved. The world needs women heroes but more importantly, the world needs to celebrate small heroic moves of every woman. This women’s day , lets celebrate the countless heroic moves of every woman in making a place for herself in this world.
Anonymous Student UAP-2022
Women’s day line- Role of women has been of immense significance since time immemorial, be it domestic domain or work life, everywhere women have a significant roles to play and the COVID situation has impactfully highlighted the hard work and efforts put in by women counterparts in household work and the work-life balance along with deligently raising children. we should all work together towards the path of gender equality, leading into the world; in lines of Rabindranath Tagore ” Where the mind is without fear and the head is held high, where knowledge is free and where the world has not been broken up into fragments by narrow domestic wall” ( here in reference to women fragmentation and domestic walls pertains to old customs beliefs and practices which held back women from progressing and having equal fair chance in various aspects of life).
Sweety raj Student UAP 2022
When God created woman he was working late on the 6th day. An angel came by and asked, “Why spend so much time on her?” The Lord answered, “Have you seen all the specifications I have to meet to shape her? She must function in all kinds of situations. She must be able to embrace several kids at the same time. Have a hug that can heal anything from a bruised knee to a broken heart. She must do all this with only two hands. She cures herself when sick and can work 18 hours a day.” The angel was impressed, “Just two hands…impossible! And this is the standard model?” Koi The angel came closer and touched the woman. “But you have made her so soft, Lord.” “She is soft”, said the Lord, “But I have made her strong. You can’t imagine what she can endure and overcome.” “Can she think?” The angel asked. The Lord answered, “Not only can she think, she can reason and negotiate.” The angel touched her cheeks. “Lord, it seems this creation is leaking! You have put too many burdens on her.” “She is not leaking…it is a tear” the Lord corrected the angel. “What’s it for?” Asked the angel. The Lord said, “Tears are her way of expressing her grief, her doubts, her love, her loneliness, her suffering and her pride.” This made a big impression on the angel, “Lord, you are a genius. You thought of everything. A woman is indeed marvellous!” Lord said, “Indeed she is. She has strength that amazes a man. She can handle trouble and carry heavy burdens. She holds happiness, love and opinions. She smiles when she feels like screaming. She sings when she feels like crying. Cries when happy and laughs when afraid. She fights for what she believes in. Her love is unconditional. Her heart is broken when a next-of-kin or a friend dies but she finds strength to get on with life.” The angel asked: “So she is a perfect being?” The Lord replied, “No. She has just one drawback…she often forgets what she is worth.”
The economic sanctions imposed by the US, UK, and the EU on Russia for going to war against Ukraine could prove to be detrimental to the country.
What do economic sanctions mean?
Economic sanctions are penalties or bans that are levied against a country to push it to modify its strategic decisions.
They include withdrawal of customary trade and financial relations for security and foreign policy purposes.
Sanctions could result in cutting economic ties in every respect such as terms of trade, financial assistance, transit support, travel bans, asset freezes, and trade restrictions.
The curbs could also be targeted, thus restricting transactions with certain businesses, groups, or individuals.
Amid increased global and economic interdependence, they could prove to be detrimental for the targeted country.
How do sanctions impact an economy?
No country can afford to be a closed economy.
The affected country’s supply chain gets disrupted in terms of the inflow of goods and services and for reaching out to the export markets.
In the former, there is a risk of the internal economy being crippled, especially if it depends on imports of critical raw materials.
The domestic economy could also be deprived of external market support.
The risk element is high especially in case of economic curbs being imposed collectively, such as by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
What are the economic sanctions against Russia?
Major Russian banks have been banned from the SWIFT financial messaging service and their assets have been frozen.
Sanctions have been levied on the Russian Direct Investment Fund and against some of Russia’s wealthiest people.
Access to air-space has been denied and export controls introduced.
The countries imposing curbs on Russia account for 34% of world GDP.
What is the cost of such restrictions?
This depends on the economic strength of the country being targeted.
Russia cannot be brushed aside as an ordinary economy.
The country is important to the global economy because of its oil reserves and access to nuclear power.
Russia is also a supplier of sophisticated defence products and is an important supplier of crucial defence products to India.
Given the long-term strategic nature of the relationship, India is abstaining from voting on resolutions to condemn Russia.
How did India manage curbs after Pokhran-II?
India’s dependence on external assistance was more than $100 billion.
The government appealed to non-resident Indians (NRIs) whose annual savings were more than $400 billion.
NRIs’ subscription to government bonds was more than double the annual foreign assistance.
India could also showcase its scientific strength as none of the scientists involved were trained abroad.
This helped India display confidence, especially to investors.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General stated that the organisation would not designate the Ukrainian airspace as a ‘No Fly Zone’ which he said would lead to a full-fledged war in Europe, involving many more countries and resulting in greater human suffering.
What is a No-Fly Zone ?
In simple terms, a No-Fly Zone refers to a particular airspace wherein aircraft, excluding those permitted by an enforcement agency, are barred from flying.
Articles under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter dealing with Action with Respect to Threats to the Peace, Breaches of the Peace, and Acts of Aggression’ are invoked to authorise a potential no-fly zone.
Article 39 dictates the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to determine the probable existence of any threat to peace or an act of aggression.
It suggests further measures, if required, are to be carded out in accordance to Article 41 and 42 to restore international peace and security.
No fly zones have been implemented without UN mandate too.
Cases of implementation
In 1991 after the first Gulf War, U.S. and its coalition partners imposed two no fly zones over Iraq to prevent Saddam Hussain born attacking ethnic groups.
In non-combat situations, No fly zones can be imposed permanently and temporarily over sensitive installations or for high profile events like Olympics.
What is the feasibility of ‘No fly zone over Ukraine?
No-fly zone declarations are essentially a compromise in situations demanding a response to ongoing violence, but full military intervention is politically untenable.
NATO has previously imposed No-Fly Zones in non-member states like Libya and Bosnia. With Russia it fears a full-fledged war in Europe.
It has been demanding that NATO scale back to the pre-1997 arrangements. Both Russia and Ukraine are not members of NATO.
Due to this the idea of imposing a no fly zone’ over Ukraine has been rejected outright.
If implemented, it means NATO deploying aircraft and assets which would result in a direct confrontation with Russia.
What are the broad contours in a No-Fly Zone?
The UNSC had banned all flights in the Libyan airspace post adoption of Resolution 1973 in 2011 in response to the Libyan Civil War.
Member slates were asked to deny permission to any Libyan registered aircraft to use the territory without requisite approval.
Further, the member states could bar any entity from flying if they found reasonable grounds to believe the aircraft is ferrying lethal or non-lethal military equipment.
Member states were permitted to allow flights whose sole purpose was humanitarian, such as delivery of medical supplies and food, chauffer humanitarian workers and related assistance, or evacuating foreign nationals from the territory.
The Union Labour and Employment Ministry has launched the “donate a pension” scheme.
‘Donate a Pension’ Scheme
This scheme allows any citizen to pay the premium amount on behalf of an unorganized worker under the Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maan-Dhan
Maan-Dhan scheme is a government scheme meant for old age protection and social security of unorganized workers.
Eligibility criteria and benefits
The scheme was launched in 2019, allows unorganized sector workers between 18 and 40 years who earn up to ₹15,000 a month to enroll by paying a premium amount between ₹55 and ₹200, depending on the age, that would be matched by the government.
On reaching the age of 60, the beneficiaries would get a ₹3,000 monthly pension.
Features of the scheme
The scheme allows a citizen to “donate the premium contribution of their immediate support staff such as domestic workers, drivers, helpers, caregivers, nurses in their household or establishment.
The donor can pay the contribution for a minimum of one year, with the amount ranging from ₹660 to ₹2,400 a year depending on the age of the beneficiary, by paying through maandhan.in or visiting a Common Service Centre.
Reports suggest that crude oil prices soared and touched almost $140 per barrel mark amid Russian invasion of Ukraine. This has posed a risk of causing Stagflation in India.
What is Stagflation?
Stagflation is a stagnant growth and persistently high inflation. It, thus, describes a rather rare and curious condition of an economy.
Iain Macleod, a Conservative Party MP in the United Kingdom, is known to have coined the phrase during his speech on the UK economy in November 1965.
Typically, rising inflation happens when an economy is booming — people are earning lots of money, demanding lots of goods and services and as a result, prices keep going up.
When the demand is down and the economy is in the doldrums, by the reverse logic, prices tend to stagnate (or even fall).
But stagflation is a condition where an economy experiences the worst of both worlds — the growth rate is largely stagnant (along with rising unemployment) and inflation is not only high but persistently so.
How does one get into Stagflation?
The best-known case of stagflation is what happened in the early and mid-1970s.
The OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), which works like a cartel, decided to cut crude oil supply.
This sent oil prices soaring across the world; they were up by almost 70%.
This sudden oil price shock not only raised inflation everywhere, especially in the western economies but also constrained their ability to produce, thus hampering their economic growth.
High inflation and stalled growth (and the resulting unemployment) created stagflation.
Is India facing stagflation?
In the recent past, this question has gained prominence since late 2019, when retail inflation spiked due to unseasonal rains causing a spike in food inflation.
In December 2019, it was also becoming difficult for the government to deny that India’s growth rate was witnessing a secular deceleration.
As revised estimates, released in January end, now show, India’s GDP growth rate decelerated from over 8% in 2016-17 to just 3.7% in 2019-20.
However, the answer to this question in December 2019 was a clear no.
For one, in absolute terms, India’s GDP was still growing, albeit at a progressively slower rate.
Why this is a cause of concern?
Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer and, as such, if its oil is kept out of the market because of sanctions, it will not only lead to prices spiking, but also mean they will stay that way for long.
While India is not directly involved in the conflict, it will be badly affected if oil prices move higher and stay that way.
India imports more than 84% of its total oil demand. At one level, that puts into perspective all the talk of being Atmanirbhar (or self-reliant).
Without these imports, India’s economy would come to a sudden halt — both metaphorically as well as actually.
Expected impact on Indian Economy
Higher inflation would rob Indians of their purchasing power, thus bringing down their overall demand.
In other words, people are not demanding enough for the economy to grow fast.
Private consumer demand is the biggest driver of growth in India.
Such aggregate demand — the monetary sum of all the soaps, phones, cars, refrigerators, holidays etc. that we all spend on in our personal capacity — accounts for more than 55% of India’s total GDP.
Higher prices will reduce this demand, which is already struggling to come back up to the pre-Covid level.
Fewer goods and services being demanded will then disincentivise businesses from investing in new capacities, which, in turn, will exacerbate the unemployment crisis and lead to even lower incomes.
Back2Basics: Inflation and its impact
Depression: It is Economic depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic
Deflation: It is the general fall in the price level over a period of time.
Disinflation: It is the fall in the rate of inflation or a slower rate of inflation. Example: a fall in the inflation rate from 8% to 6%.
Reflation: It is the act of stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply or by reducing taxes, seeking to bring the economy back up to the long-term trend, following a dip in the business cycle. It is the opposite of disinflation.
Skewflation: It is the skewed rise in the price of some items while remaining item prices remain the same. E.g. Seasonal rise in the price of onions.
Stagflation: The situation of rising prices along with falling growth and employment, is called stagflation. Inflation accompanied by an economic recession.
Ultimate Assessment Program and Foundation Program includes –
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Are you a beginner who has no idea about UPSC, but want to check if you have the aptitude for the same? Do you want to assess your performance and interest in UPSC before targetting 2023 preparation?
Then, we have got the perfect opporunity for you. Presenting, Civilsdaily’s UPSC CS 2023, Free-To-Register National Scholarship on 13th & 20th March 2022 .
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Maharashtra Governor has recently received flak for his remarks on the social reformist couple Jyotirao and Savitribai Phule.
Who were the Phules?
Mahatma Jyotirao and Savitribai Phule stand out as an extraordinary couple in the social and educational history of India.
They spearheaded path-breaking work towards female education and empowerment, and towards ending caste- and gender-based discrimination.
In 1840, at a time when child marriages were common, Savitri at the age of ten was married to Jyotirao, who was thirteen years old at the time.
The couple later in life strove to oppose child marriage and also organised widow remarriages.
The Phules’ endeavors and legacy
Education: Jyotirao, the revolutionary that he was, observed the lack of opportunities for education for young girls and women.
Leaders of the masses: He started to educate his wife at home and trained her to become a teacher. Together, by 1848, the Phules started a school for girls, Shudras and Ati-Shudras in Poona.
Widow shelter: The historic work was started by Jyotirao when he was just 21 years old, ably supported by his 18-year-old wife. In 1853, Jyotirao-Savitribai opened a care centre for pregnant widows to have safe deliveries and to end the practice of infanticide owing to social norms.
Prevention of infanticide: The Balhatya Pratibandhak Griha (Home for the Prevention of Infanticide) started in their own house at 395, Ganj Peth, Pune.
The Satyashodhak Samaj:
Literally meaning ‘The Truth-Seeker’s Society’ was established on September 24, 1873 by Jyotirao-Savitribai and other like-minded people.
The Samaj advocated for social changes that went against prevalent traditions, including economical weddings, inter-caste marriages, eradication of child marriages, and widow remarriage.
The Phules also had far-sighted goals — popularising female education, establishing an institutional structure of schools in India, and to have a society where women worked in tandem with men.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put global commodity markets in a tizzy. It is now threatening to push up farming costs and send food prices soaring. Food inflation in India may thus soon enter doubledigit territory. Let’s takes a look at the impact and other aspects of the issue.
Household budget hit
If the conflict in Ukraine worsens, India could end up exporting more wheat, thereby pushing retail prices higher.
Back to basics: How is inflation measured?
In India, inflation is primarily measured by two main indices — WPI and CPI, which measure wholesale and retail-level price changes, respectively.
The CPI calculates the difference in the price of commodities and services such as food, medical care, education, electronics etc. which Indian consumers buy for use.
On the other hand, the goods or services sold by businesses to smaller businesses for selling further is captured by the WPI.
In India, both WPI and CPI are used to measure inflation.
Current Trend of Inflation in India
The average headline Consumer Price Index-Combined (CPI-C) inflation in India moderated to 5.2 per cent in 2021-22 (April-December) from 6.6 per cent in the period of 2020-21.
The CPI inflation remained range bound as food prices eased considerably due to the supply management response by the Government.
(1) Food Inflation
Food inflation remained benign this span.
While seasonality plays a significant role in the case of vegetables, random shocks like untimely rains also have an impact on their availability and prices.
Proactive measures were taken to contain the price rise in pulses and edible oils that reported high inflation reflecting the impact of imported inflation in these commodities.
Reduction in central excise and subsequent cuts in VAT by most States has also helped ease petrol and diesel prices.
(2) Wholesale Inflation
Wholesale inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI), after remaining very benign during the previous financial year on account of pandemic induced weakening of economic activity.
This was attributable to the pick-up in economic activity, sharp increase in international prices of crude oil and other imported inputs, and high freight costs.
Issues: Divergence if figures
The consequent divergence between CPI-C and WPI inflation during the year remained a subject of debate.
This divergence can be explained by factors such as variations due to base effect, difference in scope and coverage of the two indices, their price collections, items covered and difference in commodity weights.
Further, WPI is more sensitive to cost-push inflation led by imported inputs.
With the gradual waning of base effect in WPI, the divergence in CPI-C inflation and WPI inflation is also expected to narrow down.
Global Inflation
In 2021, inflation picked up globally as economic activity revived with opening-up of economies.
The surge in energy, food, non-food commodities, and input prices, supply constraints, disruption of global supply chains, and rising freight costs across the globe stoked global inflation during the year.
Crude oil prices also witnessed an upswing due to increased demand from recovering economies and supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).
A global comparison
Advanced Economies include 40 economies and Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) include 156 economies as per IMF classification.
In comparison to many EMDEs and advanced economies, consumer price inflation in India remained normal range bound in the recent months.
As against this, inflation in USA touched 7.0 per cent in December 2021, the highest since 1982, driven largely by second hand vehicles and energy.
While in the UK it hit a nearly 30 years high of 5.4 per cent in December 2021 mainly on account of rising food prices.
What is the Conflict?
Contestation about post-Cold War central European territoriality and resurrecting a burnished Russian past is at the core of the Ukraine crisis.
Ukraine and Russia share hundreds of years of cultural, linguistic and familial links.
For many in Russia and in the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine, the shared heritage of the countries is an emotional issue that has been exploited for electoral and military purposes.
As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second-most powerful Soviet republic after Russia, and was crucial strategically, economically and culturally.
The balance of power in the region, Ukraine being a crucial buffer between Russia and the West, Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership and Russian interests in the Black Sea accompanied by the protests in the Ukraine are the major causes of the ongoing conflict.
How will the Russia-Ukraine conflict impact India?
The war in the Black Sea region, which is both a production and trade hub, has pushed prices of crude oil, wheat, corn, cooking oil, and fertilizers to new highs.
Recently, crude prices touched a high of $139 per barrel, the highest since 2008.
Global wheat prices have shot up 91% year-on-year (y-o-y), while corn prices rose by 33% y-o-y.
As India is acutely dependent on imports of edible oil and fertilizers, consumers may see prices of these soaring to painful levels.
Besides, an impending shortage of fertilizers in the country ahead of the Kharif planting season can lead to unrest in rural areas.
Can government grain stocks shield consumers?
As on mid-February, the central stock of grains comprising rice and wheat was a staggering 54 million tonnes (mt), a surplus of more than 30 mt.
It is more than what is required for the country’s public distribution system (PDS).
With a record harvest of wheat set to hit the markets later this month, the government can liquidate its wheat stocks to keep prices in check.
However, if global prices rise further and the conflict in Ukraine worsens, India could end up exporting more wheat, thereby pushing retail prices higher.
Together with higher edible oil and fuel prices, food inflation could touch double-digit highs.
How will the price rise affect the farming community?
Farmers can now expect prices at a premium to the minimum support prices (MSPs) announced by the government.
Wholesale wheat prices are now higher than the MSP, while mustard prices, at ₹7,000 per quintal, are already 40% higher than the MSP and may cross the ₹10,000 mark.
However, steep prices of inputs will add to the cost.
What is the impact of high crude prices?
Historic data show a close correlation between a rise in crude oil and food prices.
Crude prices impact food prices more than even food production. Crude prices are hovering in the $120-130 per barrel range.
Even if this were to cool down to the $100-110 level, it would impact fertilizer prices and shipping costs significantly.
High crude prices also lead to diversion of food crops to produce biofuels, thus pushing up crop prices.
India has not raised fuel prices since November and a significant hike is expected soon.
What measures can the government take?
Other than liquidating its public stock of grain, the government can restrict exports to keep cereal price inflation in check.
As for edible oil, import duties have already been reduced significantly.
Retail food inflation, which rose to a 13-month high of 5.4% in January, is likely to rise further.
To ensure that the hunger situation does not get worse, it can expand PDS and enrol many more households.
On the fertilizer front, the government may have to secure supplies from Canada, Israel, and China.
The overall impact of the Conflict?
The Russia-Ukraine crisis will send cooking gas, petrol and other fuel bills soaring for Indian households and businesses. Higher oil prices add to freight/transportation costs.
Depending on how long global oil prices remain elevated, the tensions could raise questions on the RBI’s credibility in making inflation projections and upset the government’s budget calculations, particularly fiscal deficit.
The surge in crude oil prices will lead to an increase in India’s oil import bills, and gold imports could jump back up, keeping the rupee under pressure.
India’s imports of petroleum products from Russia are only a fraction of its total oil import bill and, thus, replaceable.
However, getting alternative sources for fertilisers and sunflower oil may not be as easy.
Exports to Russia account for less than 1% of India’s total exports, but exports of pharmaceuticals and tea could face some challenges, as will shipments to CIS countries.
Freight rate hikes could make overall exports less competitive, too.
Way Forward
It is important to reform the grain-management-cum-food-subsidy system to release precious resources for growth of agriculture.
This should be combined with taking giant strides to raise productivity and producing more nutritious food while protecting the environment.
The paradox of Indian policy making can be judged by looking at the Union budget for the 2022-23 which provides more than Rs 2 lakh crore for food subsidy while agri-research and development gets a paltry Rs 8,500 crore.
It is well-known that agri-R&D gives a much higher return in terms of promoting growth with competitiveness, and reduces poverty by making food cheaper and controlling food inflation.
Hence India should focus more on agri-research and development.
On the fiscal side, the Government, which has been conservative in its revenue assumptions in the Budget, has the room to pre-emptively cut domestic fuel taxes to nip inflationary expectations, stoke faltering consumption levels and sustain India’s fragile post-Covid-19 recovery through this global churn.
Buffer stock of pulses have been used to tackle price volatility of these commodities. Pulses from the buffer were used very effectively during the COVID-19 pandemic for supplying @ 1 kg per household per month free of cost to approx.
The lack of clear systems within social media companies that claim to connect the world is appalling. It is time that they should have learned from multiple instances, as recent as the Israeli use of force in Palestine.
Role of social media platforms in the context of conflict
There was no unpredictability over conflicts in the information age spilling over to social media platforms.
In the context of conflict, social media platforms have multiple challenges that go unaddressed.
Threat of information warfare: Content moderation remains a core area of concern, where, essentially, information warfare can be operationalised and throttled.
Their sheer magnitude and narrative-building abilities place a degree of undeniable onus on them.
After years of facing and acknowledging these challenges, most social media giants are yet to create institutional capacity to deal with such situations.
Additionally, they also act as a conduit for further amplification of content on other platforms.
Major social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter also provide space for extremist views from fringe platforms, where the degree of direct relation to the user generating such content is blurred.
Technology falls short
Misinformation and disinformation are thorny challenges to these platforms.
Algorithmic solutions are widely put to use to address them.
These include identification of content violative of their terms, reducing the visibility of content deemed inappropriate by the algorithm, and in the determination of instances reported to be violative of the terms by other users.
More often than not in critical cases, these algorithmic solutions have misfired, harming the already resource-scarce party.
The operational realities of these platforms require that the safety of users be prioritised to address pressing concerns, even at the cost of profits.
Lessons for India
The lack of coherent norms on state behaviour in cyberspace as well as the intersection of business, cyberspace, and state activity is an opportunity for India.
Indian diplomats can initiate a new track of conversations here which can benefit the international community at large.
India should ensure that it initiates these conversations through well-informed diplomats.
Finally, it is necessary to reassess the domestic regulatory framework on social media platforms.
Transparency and accountability need to be foundational to the regulation of social media platforms in the information age.
Conclusion
It is in our national interest and that of a rule-based global polity that social media platforms be dealt with more attention across spheres than with a range of reactionary measures addressing immediate concerns alone.
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Get all the Civilsdaily courses under Smash Foundation Course for 60% off after you attend our scholarship test and score above the cut-off marks!
Are you a beginner who has no idea about UPSC, but want to check if you have the aptitude for the same? Do you want to assess your performance and interest in UPSC before targetting 2023 preparation?
Then, we have got the perfect opporunity for you. Presenting, Civilsdaily’s UPSC CS 2023, Free-To-Register National Scholarship on 13th & 20th March 2022 .
Last year’s scholarship test by Civilsdaily has seen a phenomenal response and pan India interest for the test. Many toppers have emerged out of the test to be subsequently mentored in the Civilsdaily Foundation Program. So aspirants, ensure you don’t miss out on the benefits of the test.
An average aspirant, pays for Prelims Course, Mains Program, Interview Guidance, Test Series & Study Materials all separately. The fees then comes up to 2-3 Lakhs for one attempt alone.
Identifying this issue, Civilsdaily has designed the Flagship Foundation Course for 2023 aspirants. This course covers the entire 3-stage journey of a UPSC aspirant. From Prelims to Interview -1:1 Mentorship, Weekly Test Series, Classes & Study Materials will be provided.
Another benefit of the program is that it’s an umbrella course wherein an aspirant can access other paid courses of Civilsdaily for FREE.
The main objective of the program is to identify and nurture serious aspirants to become future UPSC toppers. And that’s why we have designed a scholarship test.
Our foundation course will be intensive yet personalised. You will be getting individual coaching on how to conquer the basics, develop analytical skills, inculcate conceptual clarity and acquire the necessary knowledge to face the unpredictable and dynamic UPSC.
Apart from conducting subject-wise classes that covers all the Prelims-Mains syllabus from scratch, aspirants will follow a customised timetable and will complete their revision on a daily basis to attempt our weekly prelims and mains tests. Once the test is over, they will get a strategy call from a mentor, who will clear their doubts and tell them how to improve their performance from next test onwards.
Simply put, like Ekalavya you will be getting a unique coaching experience that eludes other UPSC aspirants. Even aspects like Essay, Ethics and CSAT which is ignored in other normal coaching programs, will be covered over here with tests, mentorship, classes and notes.
If you take the upcoming free UPSC national scholarship test and come out with flying colours, you will get about 60% scholarship on the Civilsdaily Flagship Foundation Course.
Details of the Civilsdaily Free National Scholarship Test
Date – 13th March & 20th March, 2022.
Please Click on Submit after finishing the Test.
Mode: Online
Registration Fee – Free
Language: English
Time: 2 Hrs
Syllabus: GS Paper 1 (Preliminary exam)
No. of Questions: 100
Date: 13th March & 20th March
Time: 10 AM
Result: 27/03/2022
Why should you take the CD’s Scholarship Test?
1. Test your preparation on UPSC-CSE grade questions, at national level.
2. Chance to compete against the best. See where you stand.
3. Identify your subjectwise strengths, weak points, and problem areas before you start preparation.
4. Mentors will provide personalised counselling based on your performance in the scholarship test.
5. A detailed discussion will help you navigate through the challenges during the preparation.
6. Achieve up to 60% scholarship in our exclusive umbrella foundation course.
As the program is rigorous and involves individual attention, we can take only limited enrollments. Hence, we are conducting a Scholarship Exam to identify serious UPSC aspirants on 13th and 20th of March. Depending on your relative score, you can get up to a 60% scholarship.
We are looking for
1. Serious and hardworking aspirants.
2. Ready to dedicate a minimum of 5-8 hours daily.
3. Can complete assigned targets and tests without fail.
4. Only 1 thought in mind and that is – to clear UPSC Civil Services 2023.
5. Willing to take constructive feedback from mentors after each test.
Since its inception, UPSC-CSE has had toppers from various academic and socio-economic backgrounds who have cracked the exam with flying colours. It’s clear that one doesn’t have to go to Delhi or a coaching centre to crack UPSC-CSE.
If education, geographical and economic background doesn’t matter, then what does? Attitude, or precisely consistency. If you are persistent and adamant to clear UPSC- CSE and have given more than two attempts till now, then you must replace that with consistency. Because, being persistent might lead you to the door, but it’s consistency that unlocks it.
In last month’s Samanvaya 1-on-1 counselling sessions, our expert Civilsdaily mentors reached out to aspirants to address their concerns regarding UPSC-CSE preparation. These are the responses they often heard from them —
How do I start preparing after a gap of 3-4 months?
It’s easy for me to maintain consistency in GS Preparation but not Revision
I study daily, but can only remain focused for 2-3 hours. How do I improve?
My long working hours don’t allow me to study daily.
Why am I losing interest in completing a subject? It’ s easier to read a new subject everyday.
This week, we have decided to answer all these questions and take additional questions in our personalised & motivational counselling session
Key-Takeaways from This Week’s Samanvaya, Free 1-on-1 Counselling Session?
If you want to experience the same mentorship as Rishab Sharma, then here’s the good news – your first UPSC mentorship is on us and is absolutely free! All you have to do is confirm your slot now.
This prompted us to reach out to one of our students who is currently an IPS officer, Rishabh Sharma. He cleared the exam in 2020 with AIR 454. After his first attempt, Rishabh had enrolled in Smash Mains program underSajal sir and also attended our free interview program. Cracking the mighty UPSC-CSE the second time, Rishabh explains what consistency means to him —
UPSC doesn’t just test your intellect. It tests your patience, mental strength, your emotions, the very character of yours . As far as the journey of CSE is concerned you might know when to start, but you never know when the journey will come to an end. So be consistent and enjoy the journey.
Every topper follows a plan, a method or strategy that makes it easier for them to study on a daily basis and complete the traget modules of the day. In this free live counselling session, we will explain the many ways you can do to avoid faltering on your preparation.
1. The difference between a consistent study pattern v/s an inconsistent one. How UPSC-CSE becomes easier over time with consistency?
2. Social media distraction. How to avoid spending long hours on social media?
3. Number of ideal breaks everyday. Why is it necessary to reward yourself with a short break from time to time?
4. Best way to plan your timetable in advance? Why daily timetable should not be rigid but yearly timetable should be well defined?
5. How to remain consistent when you are not opting for coaching?
6. What are the practical methods to maintain regularity in studies. Tips to sustain the fire and passion for studies.
7. Why using Public Libraries is a way to remain consistent in UPSC-CSE preparation?
8. What are the 4 factors that determine if you can remain consistent for a year? If not, then why should you work on them first before starting UPSC-CSE preparation?
Get Motivated to Maintain Overall Consistency for UPSC
It’s understandable we are humans and not programmable robots who can maintain the same level of interest everyday. However, maintaining an overall consistency throughout our preparation is neccessary to clear this competitive and vast exam.
Our philosophy behind MENTORSHIP is to get you out of this Snooze cycle. This ensures that you are the BEST VERSION of yourself in this journey. If you are under the impression that mentorship is weekly calls you attend, then you are mistaken, my friend. Trust us, your mentor will be your ‘FRIEND, PHILOSOPHER AND GUIDE’.
TO EACH THEIR OWN – Every aspirant is different. Their strengths and weaknesses are different. Their time availability is also different. Identifying this is important so you don’t end up making unrealistic targets and lose momentum. Your mentor will make sure you start slow but remain consistent to build your confidence. Making your schedule structured based on our experience of working with 2500+ students is our first priority.
TRACK YOUR PROGRESS – When you see yourself grow, it becomes easier to motivate yourself to push boundaries. Tracking your progress can happen in many ways like mentorship calls or chat sessions or by regular tests. The idea is to ensure that you don’t go off track in your preparation, and even if you do, we have your back.
EVOLUTION – A constant guidance is important to bring consistency to your UPSC preparation. Guidance is not about clearing your doubts or asking you to study when you don’t. It is also about the evolution of your preparation. This is where you and your mentor work as a team. A constant effort to PLAN AND BUILD UP YOUR ABILITY to learn in a faster and more efficient way.
TALK IT OUT – The biggest hurdle in achieving your highest level of consistency is the emotional part. Every now and then, you. surround yourself with negative thoughts, you feel scared and depressed. Instead of resolving these emotional issues, you avoid them as it seems like a waste of your precious time. You have to understand that ignoring emotional troubles does not solve them. What your doing is building an emotional time bomb that may burst a week before your mains or prelims! This is where your MENTOR AS A FRIEND comes in. All our mentors have been through this journey. We understand your fears and anxieties. So, TALK IT OUT.
Don’t let inconsistency keep you away from your dreams.
Fill up the SAMANVAYA form given below. Let us know your problems and we will find a solution to it, just like our students say ” TOGETHER WE CAN AND WE WILL”. BOOK YOUR SLOT FOR YOUR FREE 1-0N-1 COUNSELLING SESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
How has Civilsdaily Mentorship, helped Aspirants become Toppers?
The most difficult challenge faced by EVERY candidate is inconsistency. Be it inconsistency in studies, answer-writing practice, covering the syllabus, or revision, every candidate finds it difficult to cope with. Buthow do successful candidates manage to FIGHT Inconsistency so consistently?
In UPSC 2020, Civilsdaily helped 80+ students secure ranks in their exams. In the top 100, every 3rd ranker was a Civilsdaily student.
A very recent success story would be Vishwa Shah, student of Civilsdaily Mentor, Sukanya Ma’am. Vishwa has cleared the GPSC exam to become the Deputy Superintendent of Police in Gujarat. He has penned a thank-you note yesterday. Heartiest Congratulations to Vishwa!
One of our other Civilsdaily Student, Shubham Nagargojecleared the exams in 2020 to become an IPS Officer. Shubham was gracious enough to let us know how he felt about Civilsdaily Samanvaya Guidance under Parth sir.
To know how all of them cleared the exam with our mentorship, visit the UnherdPodcast.
Now that results are announced for UPSC 2021 Prelims, out of 15 out of 25 students of Santhosh Gupta sir have been recommended to Mains. One such student, Rahul expresses his gratitude and extends his appreciation.
Most of our Mentors like Sudhanshu sir, Sajal sir, Santhosh sir, Pravin sir, Parth Verma sir and Sukanya Ma’am were UPSC aspirants themselves and have attended UPSC Mains more than five times and UPSC Interview more than twice. Hence their mentorship is always a blend of the best test series, comprehensive notes and current affairs knowledge.
All of them dedicate their time weekly to give 1-on-1 mentorship to every student where they discuss last week’s performance and next week’s approach.
Be it Telegram, Whatsapp or Habitiat channels, they are always available and clear student’s doubts in a turnaround time of 24 Hours.
Why Civilsdaily Mentors are the GPS for Your UPSC-CSE Preparation
Remember there is always light at the end of the tunnel and if you want to get out of the tunnel you have to follow the direction of the light! Our mentors’ give you direction which is divided into daily modules. All you have to do is study and complete them on time.
As every year passes by, we don’t get confident by the previous years’ performance and become laidback. Instead, we become more hungry to convert all our students into toppers.REGISTER HERE TO SCHEDULE YOUR FIRST FREE SAMANVAYA COUNSELLING SESSION IN NEXT 24 HOURS
How are Current Civilsdaily Students Gearing up for UPSC-CSE 2022?
Initially, our Civilsdaily student Smriti wasn’t confident about Prelims when she began her preparation. Though she had joined Civilsdaily in 2020, she started studying for UPSC-CSE back in 2019. At that time, Smriti had enrolled in multiple institutes. Though, most of these institutes had promised a personal mentor, she was unable to get in touch with them on a daily basis. Also those mentors never scheduled test-series on a weekly basis. Hence, despite preparing for a year, Smriti had scored only 35 marks out of 200 in her first test series by Civilsdaily.
She then started writing 20-25 test series over the course of UAP 2021 and in her last test, her scores have drastically improved. She now scores in the range of 130-135 marks in prelims’ and 110+ in mains’ papers.
In Smriti’s own words she describes her Samanvaya Mentorship Experience to be —
“Our parents provide us financial and emotional support, friends provide us moral support and the right mentor gives you logistic and logical support for UPSC. There are days when I felt I won’t be able to compete against lakhs of aspirants. That’s when my mentor, Ravi sir reminded me of my improvement and encouraged me that I can crack it with the same consistency. We need someone, who tells us we are performing well especially when we cannot see that ourselves. The mentorship at Civilsdaily helped me become mentally stronger as a person. In other institutes, mentors are allotted only for doubt resolution. But at Civilsdaily, I am getting end-to-end mentorship via value added notes, classes, test series and detailed evaluation.”
Similarly our another Civilsdaily student, Ashishsums up his Samanvaya experience with Civilsdaily mentor,Pravin Sir, “Because of Pravin sir’s support, I am able to understand a topic in lesser time.”
This is how Pravin sir evaluates Ashish’s Mains Test Series every week. After every test series evaluation, Pravin sir schedules a 1 hour call to discuss how Ashish can improve his marks and the sources he can refer for key topics.
It’s Your Turn Get the Free 40 Min Counselling Session By a CD Mentor
Civilsdaily mentors are so dedicated, consistent and focused for your UPSC goal, that you will eventually become focused into turning your dreams to reality.
At the core of Civilsdaily UPSC mentorship, lies the fact that each one of you will have a unique journey while preparing for the exam. Some will get through on the first attempt without much effort while others will take both more time and more effort.
We want to understand you better to help you optimize your journey so you can focus on the right things and not waste time on the wrong ones. We are asking you to tap into the valuable experiences of mentors who underwent the same grind and realize the pitfalls and understand the shortcuts to make it.
In the first counselling session, we will understand your weaknesses. We then help you to stick to one plan or strategy throughout your preparation. We will then follow up with you on a daily basis to check if you are right on track. TALK TO OUR MENTORS & CLARIFY YOUR DOUBTS NOW
The Ukraine crisis will affect India’s energy landscape in many ways. This article analyses the impact and suggest the policy measures.
The trajectory of oil prices
The inflation-adjusted price of Brent crude is $83/bbl (as of writing, the nominal price is $116 / bbl), which is lower than the peak of $145/ bbl in 2008 and the average price that year of $100/bbl.
In other words, prices could rise much further and we would still not be in uncharted waters.
Factors affecting prices: The price trajectory will depend on the duration of the conflict, its impact on global energy demand, countervailing supply measures (for example, drawdown of strategic reserves, diversion of US LNG supplies to Europe, the Iranian nuclear deal which, if signed, could release up to 1 mbd of Iranian crude into the market) and whether in all this mayhem, the pipeline infrastructure currently feeding Russian gas into Europe remains operational.
Impact on India’s earnings: Our earnings from petroleum products (diesel, petrol, naphtha) will be adversely impacted.
In 2021, these products generated $39 billion in revenue and at 14 per cent, they accounted for the highest share of export earnings.
Impact on India’s energy assets in Russia
ONGC has a 26 per cent stake in the Vankor oil field, a 20 per cent stake in the Sakhalin-1 LNG/oil export complex.
All these holdings have eroded substantially in value.
In India, Rosneft (the Russian national oil company) operates the 20 mtpa refinery in Vadinar through Nayara Energy.
Nayara is not sanctioned but the traders of crude/products might worry about transacting with an Indian company owned by a sanctioned Russian entity.
Four emergent energy trends that would affect India
1] Energy ties of Russia and China: Only last week, for instance, Gazprom signed off on an agreement to build a second gas pipeline to China christened “Power of Siberia 2”.
The “Power of Siberia 1” pipeline has been pumping gas into China since 2019.
2] Emergence of US as second largest producer: The emergence of the US as the largest producer of oil in the world and potentially the largest exporter of LNG.
It has the capacity to blunt the impact of a supply shortfall but as it is controlled by profit-maximising private corporates.
3] The ability of Saudi Arabia to swing the crude oil market: It is the one member of OPEC plus with significant spares, low cost, producible capacity (approx 3 mbd) of crude oil.
The US has pressured Saudi to bring this volume into the market but they have, as yet, not buckled.
4] China’s dominance over rare earth metals: The chokehold of China over the rare earths, minerals and components that are required to effect the transition to a clean energy system.
Suggestions for India
1] Take into account uncertainty: Frame the polic around the expectation of continuing volatility.
2] Strategic reserves: Build up strategic reserves to safeguard against the unexpected.
3] Transnational pipelines: Revive conversations with Turkmenistan and Iran about a transnational gas pipeline.
4] Reduce dependence on China for minerals and components required for the transition to clean energy: Fast forward efforts to decouple the supply chain dependence on China for the minerals and components required for the clean energy transition.
And, finally bring in psychologists to get a better fix on the logic that drives the decisions of the energy autocrats in Russia, Saudi Arabia and China.
Conclusion
The Ukraine crisis throws up many learnings. But one needs particular emphasis. It is not enough to read the tea leaves of supply, demand and geopolitical trends to understand the trajectory of the energy market.
GS-1 Post-independence consolidation and reorganization within the country.
GS-2 Development processes and the development industry —the role of NGOs, SHGs, various groups and associations, donors, charities, institutional and other stakeholders.
GS-3 Awareness in the fields of IT, Space, Computers, robotics, nano-technology, bio-technology and issues relating to intellectual property rights.
GS-4 Human Values – lessons from the lives and teachings of great leaders, reformers and administrators; role of family society and educational institutions in inculcating values.
HOW TO ATTEMPT ANSWERS IN DAILY ANSWER WRITING ENHANCEMENT(AWE)?
Daily 4 questions from General studies 1, 2, 3, and 4 will be provided to you.
A Mentor’s Comment will be available for all answers. This can be used as a guidance tool but we encourage you to write original answers.
You can write your answer on an A4 sheet and scan/click pictures of the same.
Upload the scanned answer in the comment section of the same question.
Along with the scanned answer, please share your Razor payment ID, so that paid members are given priority.
If you upload the answer on the same day like the answer of 11th February is uploaded on 11th February then your answer will be checked within 72 hours. Also, reviews will be in the order of submission- First come first serve basis
If you are writing answers late, for example, 11th February is uploaded on 13th February , then these answers will be evaluated as per the mentor’s schedule.
We encourage you to write answers on the same day. However, if you are uploading an answer late then tag the mentor like @Staff so that the mentor is notified about your answer.
*In case your answer is not reviewed, reply to your answer saying *NOT CHECKED*.
