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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • Russian actions in Ukraine hardly pass the test for strategic victory

    Context

    On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched “special military operations” with the objective of “demilitarising Ukraine” but not “occupying” it.

    Why it was a crisis in the making?

    • Redrawing national boundaries by force: After 1945, this is the second time that national boundaries are being redrawn by force; the first was the 1999 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) air strikes on Serbian forces that led to the creation of Kosovo.
    • Russian and Chinese protests about NATO undertaking “out of area operations” without United Nations Security Council approval carried little weight.
    • After the fall of the Berlin Wall in late-1989, then U.S. Secretary Of State had assured the Soviet President that “there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction one inch to the east”.
    • Rather than look for a new European security framework, the newly independent Baltic and central European states sought security in a U.S.-led NATO.
    • Beginning in 1999, NATO has added 14 new members in stages.
    • At the NATO summit in 2008, at U.S. President George Bush’s urging, an in-principle opening for Ukraine and Georgia was announced, though France and Germany, conscious of Russian concerns, successfully opposed defining a time frame.
    • Later that year, Russia intervened in Georgia on the grounds of protecting the Russian minorities and took over the northern provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
    • Annexation of Crimea:  In 2014 Mr. Putin annexed Crimea.
    • For Russia, Crimea is vital as the peninsula hosts Russia’s Black Sea fleet, providing it access to the Mediterranean and its bases at Latakia and Tartus in Syria.
    • Despite no timeline for membership, Ukraine was made a NATO Enhanced Opportunity Partner in 2020.
    • The presence of British and U.S. warships in the Black Sea began to increase.
    • In 2019, the U.K. entered into a cooperation agreement with Ukraine to develop two new naval ports, Ochakiv on the Black Sea and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov, a move that Russia saw as potentially threatening.
    • Beginning with NATO’s bombing of Serbia in 1999, interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and colour revolutions to engineer regime changes, the U.S.’ unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002 coupled with missile defence deployments in Poland and Romania, Russia’s grievances were accumulating.

    Faltering diplomacy

    • France and Germany initiated talks between Ukraine and Russia under the Normandy format leading to the Minsk agreements, in 2014 and 2015.
    • The first was for a ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists and the second was between Ukraine, Russia, the two separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
    • Supportive declarations by France and Germany were intended to address Russian security concerns.
    • Ukraine undertook to introduce certain constitutional amendments to provide a degree of autonomy to the two provinces and Russia was to assist in withdrawal of all foreign forces.
    • However, neither side implemented and positions have only hardened since.
    • Russia’s threatening moves made NATO members, especially the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and the central Europeans like Poland and Romania, especially nervous.
    • Finally, NATO remained united but unable to provide an off-ramps solution.

    Implications for Russia

    • NATO has been rejuvenated, the trans-Atlantic unity strengthened and Russia’s economic ties with Europe have been adversely impacted.
    • Given Russia’s considerable foreign exchange reserves, of nearly $640 billion, sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU may not hurt immediately but eventually will begin to bite both the oligarchs and the common people.
    • Worse, Russia will become more dependent on China — for political support as well as a market for its energy exports. 
    • This will eventually weaken its hand in central Asia.

    Conclusion

    For Mr Putin challenge is to constrain the adversary’s options while increasing one’s own options and space for manoeuvre. His actions this week may yield tactical gains but hardly pass the test for strategic victory.

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  • Places in news: Chernobyl

     

    Ukrainian authorities said that radiation levels had increased in the Chernobyl exclusion zone after the Russian Invasion.

    What is Chernobyl Disaster?

    • The Chernobyl disaster was a nuclear accident that occurred on 26 April 1986 at the No. 4 reactor in the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, near the city of Pripyat in the north of Ukraine (formerly USSR).
    • It is considered the worst nuclear disaster in history both in cost and casualties.
    • It is one of only two nuclear energy accidents rated at seven—the maximum severity—on the International Nuclear Event Scale.
    • The other such incident was the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan.

    Destruction caused

    • Some sources state that two people were killed in the initial explosions, whereas others report that the figure was closer to 50.
    • Dozens more people contracted serious radiation sickness; some of them later died.
    • Between 50 and 185 million curies of radionuclides (radioactive forms of chemical elements) escaped into the atmosphere.
    • This is several times more radioactivity than that created by the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan.
    • This radioactivity was spread by the wind over Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine and soon reached as far west as France and Italy.

     

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  • Russian Aggression on Ukraine and International Law

    The Russian annexation of Russia has been condemned widely and raised several questions concerning violation of international law.

    How is Russia violating the UN Charter?

    (1) Principle of Non-Intervention

    • The Russian attack on Ukraine is violative of the non-intervention principle, and amounts to aggression under international law.
    • The principle of non-intervention in domestic affairs is the foundational principle on which existing international order is based.
    • The principle is enshrined in article 2(4) of the UN Charter requiring states to refrain from using force or threat of using force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.
    • It prohibits any kind of forcible trespassing in the territory of another state, even if it is for temporary or limited operations such as an ‘in and out’ operation.

    (2) Principle of Non-Aggression

    • The UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 (1974) defines aggression as the use of armed force by a state against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another state.
    • Additionally, allowing one’s territory to be used by another state for aggression against a third state, also qualifies as an act of aggression.
    • Accordingly, Belarus can also be held responsible for aggression as it has allowed its territory to be used by Russia for attacking Ukraine.
    • Aggression is also considered an international crime under customary international law and the Rome statute establishing the International Criminal Court.

    (3) Principle of Political Independence

    • Russia’s desire to keep Ukraine out of NATO is a prime reason for its use of force against Ukraine.
    • This is violative of Ukraine’s political independence under article 2(4) as Ukraine being a sovereign state is free to decide which organizations it wants to join.
    • Also, by resorting to use of force, Russia has violated article 2(3) which requires the states to settle their dispute by peaceful means in order to preserve international peace and security.

    (4) Principle of Self-Defence

    • In face of the use of force by Russia, Ukraine has the right to self-defence under international law.
    • The UN Charter under article 51 authorizes a state to resort to an individual or collective self-defense until the Security Council take steps to ensure international peace and security.
    • In this case, it seems implausible for the UNSC to arrive at a decision as Russia is a permanent member and has veto power.

    Russia’s hype:

    (1) Nuclear escalation

    • It has been claimed by Russia that Ukraine may acquire nuclear weapons with the help of western allies.
    • However, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Legality of Threat of Nuclear Weapons case held that mere possession of nuclear weapons does not necessarily constitute a threat.
    • Thus, even if Ukraine has, or were to acquire nuclear weapons in the future, it does not become a ground for invoking self-defence by Russia.

    (2) Aggression against Russia

    • Further, mere membership in a defence alliance such as NATO cannot necessarily be considered as a threat of aggression against Russia.
    • Thus, here too Russia cannot invoke self-defence.

    (3) Act in self-defence

    • Russia can also not invoke anticipatory self-defence.
    • Such invocation according to the Caroline test would require that the necessity of self-defence was instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means, and no moment for deliberation.
    • However, this is not the case with Russia.

    What options is Ukraine left with?

    • Ukraine has a right under international law to request assistance from other states in form of military assistance, supply of weapons etc.
    • On the other hand, Russia has also claimed that it is acting in self-defence.
    • This claim is questionable, as there has been no use of force, or such threats against Russia by Ukraine.

     

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  • Changing dynamics of Pakistan-Russia Relations

    The two-day visit to Moscow by Pakistan’s PM Imran Khan comes at a time when President Vladimir Putin is the bad boy of the world for his actions against Ukraine.

    Pakistan–Russia Relations: A backgrounder

    • The Soviet Union and Pakistan first established diplomatic and bilateral relations on 1 May 1948.
    • For most of the Cold War, the Soviet Union’s relations with Pakistan have seen ups and downs during the different periods in the history of Pakistan.
    • Pakistan is credited for playing a key role for allying and supporting the West during this time period of the Cold War.
    • In recent years their ties have warmed as a countermeasure to warming ties between India and the United States.

    Instances of Russia defying India

    • The two countries carried out their first-ever joint military drills in 2016 despite Indian requests to postpone due to the Uri attack.
    • Pakistan and Russia signed an agreement for the Pakistan Stream Gas pipeline from Karachi to Kasur, and reached a price accord by December 2016.
    • Pakistan has also granted Russia access to a warm water port in the Arabian Sea (Gwadar Port).
    • Their mutual partnership with China that has grown in recent years signals the undeniable development of a new axis in South Asia and Central Asia.
    • The two countries take the lead in projecting the Taliban as the rightful claimants to power in Kabul.

    A timeline of relations

    • Cold war era: Pakistan’s relations with Russia have come a long way since the time it was a willing ally and treaty partner of the US bloc against the Soviet Union. It had helped the US repair its relations with China, which sent Beijing and Moscow further apart.
    • Paving way for India: In response, India and USSR solidified their ties with a defense pact and increased economic and people-to-people exchanges.
    • Afghan War: Pakistan saw itself as a frontline state against the spread of communism, and actively aided and assisted in the defeat of the Red Army in the first Afghan war, with the US and Saudi Arabia using the Pak Army.
    • Fall of USSR: The collapse of the Soviet Union led to major shifts in international relations. From their vantage points, Pakistan and Russia watched the US and post-economic-reforms India draw closer.

    Pakistan parted with the US

    • Putin’s Russia began looking for new markets for its military hardware, as well as new international partners, began building ties with Pakistan.
    • By then, serious rifts had emerged between the Obama Administration and Pakistan.
    • The killing of Osama bin Laden in a stealth raid by US marines in Pakistan’s Abbottabad became the turning point.

    Russia-Pakistan-China

    (1) Helping the lonely Pakistan

    • In 2011, to New Delhi’s shock, Russia lifted its four-decade-old arms embargo on Pakistan — and within four years, would sell Pakistan its first MiG attack helicopters.
    • As a US defeat in Afghanistan began to look certain, both countries made common cause on Afghanistan, again to India’s dismay.
    • In September 2016, after the Jaish-e-Mohammed attack in Uri, Russia went ahead with a joint military exercise with Pakistan, ignoring New Delhi’s appeal.
    • In 2017, with Indo-Pak relations at their lowest, Russia sold more helicopters to Pakistan.

    (2) Enters the old dragon

    • After its 2014 annexation of Crimea, Russia found a friend in China, the long-time friend of Pakistan, triangulating the relationship.
    • Both Pakistan and Russia are participants in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
    • After the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, the world has seen the three take common positions and in tacit acknowledgment of each other’s interests in that country.

    Impact on ties with India

    • The Russia-India relationship is not what it used to be in the Soviet days, both sides recognise its continued mutual benefits. However-
    1. Russia is hardly starry-eyed about its relations with Pakistan.
    2. It has clear views against Pakistan’s patronage of terrorists.
    3. While it is supportive of the Taliban regime, Russia is concerned about radical terrorism expansion from Afghanistan.
    • Russia remains India’s biggest arms supplier, and India took the risk of being sanctioned by the US when it bought the Russian S 400 missile defence system.
    • New Delhi has not yet allowed its close ties with the US to tilt its delicate balance on the Ukraine issue.

    Significance of Pak Visit

    • IK is visiting Russia on the Kremlin’s invitation sides to convey their own messages to the West about building partnerships in a changing world.
    • He will become the first foreign leader to visit Russia after Putin recognized two breakaway regions of Ukraine as independent republics.
    • He is also the first Pakistani PM to travel to that country since the landmark visit by Nawaz Sharif in 1999.

    What does Pakistan seeks to have?

    • Pakistan wants Russia to invest in, and construct a $2.5 billion gas pipeline from the seaport in Karachi to Kasur in the Punjab hinterland, even though this pipeline is unlikely to transport Russian gas.
    • Moscow, however, appears to be more interested in the possibility of building the 1,800-km Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline.

     

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  • Russia-China Axis

    Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China this month, as well as the Ukraine crisis, have turned the spotlight on Russia’s relations with China.

    News: China-factor in Ukraine Crisis

    • Many in the west have blamed the Russia-China axis for motivating Moscow’s recent moves and ensuring it will not be completely isolated in the face of western sanctions.
    • At the same time, Beijing has found itself walking a tightrope in its response and has so far stopped short of endorsing Russia’s actions.

    Russia-China Relations: A backgrounder

    • Relations between China and the former Soviet Union were frosty, marked by mistrust and doctrinal differences for most of the Cold War decades.
    • The change came in 1989, when Mikhail Gorbachev became the first Soviet leader to land in Beijing since Nikita Khrushchev in 1958.
    1. Economic dependency: A decade after the Soviet Union broke up, disappointed and humiliated and deep in economic crisis, Russia under Putin’s first presidency turned to China under President Jiang Zemin.
    2. Neighborhood: In 2001, the two countries signed the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation, paving the way for expanding economic and trade ties.
    3. Technological support: For the new People’s Republic of China, the Soviet Union was the most important source of financial and technological support.
    4. Respect for sovereignty: Russia’s backing for China’s position on Taiwan is also a benchmark.

    Current state of ties

    • Last year, Russia’s Foreign Minister has described relations as the “best in their entire history”. Both premiers have met 38 times (in person and virtually) since 2013.
    • The biggest factor behind their current closeness is:
    1. Shared discomfort with the US and its allies
    2. NATO and its ideological cold war approaches
    3. Indo-Pacific strategy and QUAD
    4. One-China Principle

    Military closeness

    • China in 2014 became the first foreign buyer of the S-400 missile defence system, which India has also purchased (although there have been reported delays in delivery for reasons unknown).
    • Their joint exercises have also grown in scope.
    • Last year, a third “joint strategic air patrol” was held over the East China Sea.

    Trade and Commerce

    • Russia is China’s largest source of energy imports and second largest source of crude oil.
    • Energy set to account for 35% of trade in 2022.
    • China has been Russia’s biggest trading partner for 12 consecutive years and accounts for close to 20% of Russia’s total foreign trade (Russia, on the other hand, accounts for 2% of China’s trade).
    • But Russia is, for China, a key market for project contracts besides energy supplies.
    • Chinese companies signed construction project deals worth $5 billion last year — for the third straight year.

    Chinese response to the Ukraine Crisis

    • Given these deep trade linkages, China does not want instability (or, for that matter, a spurt in energy prices).
    • China has iterated that the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and safeguarded.
    • China has preferred resolution to the current crisis through diplomacy and a return to the Minsk Agreement.
    Minsk Agreement: They were a series of international agreements which sought to end the war in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

    Implications for the world

    • China has repeatedly underlined that it is sympathetic to Russia’s concerns on NATO, which mirror its own opposition to America’s allies in the Indo-Pacific.
    • As strategic back-to-back fraternal partners, China is obliged to bolster Russia in time of need.
    • With consistent support from China, the Russian economy has become increasingly resilient following years of sanctions imposed by the US and other Western developed countries.
    • A strong economy will back up Moscow to deflect ruthless economic coercion from the US.

    Implications for India

    • Strategists in the west and in India have often questioned the robustness of the relationship as well as Russia’s possible unease at being the “junior partner” and increasingly beholden to Chinese interests.
    • The Russian President’s invite to Pak PM Imran Khan is the recent unwelcomed moved for India.
    • In this regard, New Delhi expects Sino-Russian closeness to continue, which poses its own challenges.
    • This is not, however, an entirely new situation, as history reminds us, on how the Soviet Union responded to China’s attack on India in 1962.

    Conclusion

    • It is no doubt that India would restrict its foreign policy choices and undermine its own status as a rising power of global standing by taking sides in a conflict that has nothing to do with it.

     

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  • India’s Ukraine dilemma

    Context

    As diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine continue, the time has come for Delhi to devote greater attention to Central Europe, which is at the heart of the contestation between Russia and the West.

    Recognising the role of Central Europe in shaping the geopolitics of Europe

    • Central Europe today has an identity of its own and the political agency to reshape European geopolitics.
    • It is important to remember that Central Europe is no longer just a piece of territory that Russia and the Western powers can divide into “spheres of influence”.
    • A grand bargain between Russia and the West will work only if it is acceptable to Central Europe.

    Need for diplomatic balancing on Ukraine by India

    • As war clouds gather over Ukraine, there is much focus on India’s diplomatic balancing act, its unwillingness to publicly caution Russia against invading Ukraine, and above all its reluctance to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty.
    • This is not the first time that Russia’s approach to Central Europe has put Delhi in a tight corner.
    • The Soviet invasion of Hungary in 1956, and Czechoslovakia in 1968, exposed an important tension in Indian diplomacy.
    • In Central Europe, India’s pragmatism in not offending Moscow (an important partner) runs against the utter unacceptability of Putin’s doctrine of “limited sovereignty”, a continuation of the Soviet era policy of saying that the socialist states must subordinate their sovereignty for the sake of the “collective interests of the socialist bloc”.

    Factors shaping India’s stand

    • Tension with China: The prospective Russian invasion of Ukraine comes amidst India’s military tensions with China and Delhi’s continued dependence on Moscow’s military supplies.
    •  It also comes at a time when Delhi is trying to build an international coalition against China’s brazen attacks on the territorial sovereignty of its Asian neighbours.
    • For the moment, Delhi is in a safe corner by calling for diplomacy in resolving the Ukraine crisis.
    • But if Russia does invade Ukraine, the pressure on India to rethink its position will mount.
    • Any such review must eventually lead to an independent appreciation of the geopolitics of Central Europe.

    Five factors that must shape India’s perspective on the geopolitics of Central Europe

    • 1] No taker for sphere of influence: Russia’s claim for a broad sphere of influence in the region has no takers in Central Europe.
    • 2]Need for political accommodation: While Russia has legitimate security interests in Central  Europe, they can only be realised through political accommodation.
    • Moscow cannot enforce a sphere of influence against the will of its prospective members.
    • 3] NATO as better option: few Central Europeans buy into the French vision for “European sovereignty” and “strategic autonomy”. 
    • They bet that NATO, led by the US, is a better option than a Europe that is independent of Washington.
    • They view with even greater distaste the prospects for Russo-German condominium over Central Europe.
    • 4] Resentment against imposition of political value:While they are eager to be part of the Western institutions, Central Europeans resent any attempt by the US and EU to impose political values that run against their traditional cultures.
    • 5] Sub regional institution: Central Europeans are eager to develop sub-regional institutions that can enhance their identity.
    • The Visegrad Four — Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia — is one of them.
    • The so-called “Three Seas Initiative” brings together 12 European states running in a vertical axis from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Adriatic and Black Sea in the south.

    Conclusion

    Delhi can’t forever view this critical region through the prism of Russia’s conflict with the West. It must come to terms with its growing strategic significance.

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  • What is Permanent Indus Commission?

    A 10-member Indian delegation will visit Pakistan for the annual meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) from March 1-3.

    Agenda this year

    • Pakistan has some objections on Indian hydroelectric projects namely Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Lower Kalnai (48 MW) and Kiru (624 MW) in Chenab basin in Jammu and Kashmir.
    • Pakistan has raised objections on the design of these projects.
    • India, however, asserts that the design of the project is fully compliant with the provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

    Permanent Indus Commission

    • The PIC is a bilateral commission consisting of officials from India and Pakistan, created to implement and manage the goals and objectives, and outlines of the IWT.

    Indus Waters Treaty, 1960

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India — the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India
    • The control over the water flowing in three “western” rivers of India — the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan.

    Rights accorded to India

    • The treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use and unrestricted use for power generation, domestic industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.
    • It lays down precise regulations to build any water or hydel projects.
    • India has been given the right to generate hydroelectricity through run-of-the-river projects on the western rivers subject to specific criteria for design and operation.
    • The pact also gives the right to Pakistan to raise objections to designs of Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

    Based on equitable water-sharing

    • Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.
    • Equitable it may have seemed, but the fact remained that India conceded 80.52 percent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system to Pakistan.
    • It also gave Rs 83 crore in pounds sterling to Pakistan to help build replacement canals from the western rivers. Such generosity is unusual of an upper riparian.
    • India conceded its upper riparian position on the western rivers for the complete rights on the eastern rivers.
    • Water was critical for India’s development plans.

    Significance of the treaty

    • It is a treaty that is often cited as an example of the possibilities of peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship.
    • Well-wishers of the treaty often dub it “uninterrupted and uninterruptible”.
    • The World Bank, which, as the third party, played a pivotal role in crafting the IWT, continues to take particular pride that the treaty functions.

    Need for a rethink

    • The role of India, as a responsible upper riparian abiding by the provisions of the treaty, has been remarkable.
    • However, of late, India is under pressure to rethink the extent to which it can remain committed to the provisions, as its overall political relations with Pakistan becomes intractable.

     

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  • India-UAE free trade agreement

    Context

    India has embarked on a new journey — a new free trade agreement (FTA) journey to be precise — with renewed zeal and vigor.

    India’s revamped FTA strategy

    • Gaining meaningful market access: India’s approach towards FTAs is now focusing more on gaining meaningful market access and facilitating the Indian industry’s integration into global value chains.
    • Under the revamped FTA strategy, the Government of India has prioritized at least six countries or regions to deal with, in which the United Arab Emirates (UAE) figures at the top of the list for an early harvest deal.
    • The others are the United Kingdom, the European Union, Australia, Canada, Israel, and a group of countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
    • The early harvest deal is to be enlarged into a comprehensive FTA in due course of time.

    Why does the FTA with UAE matter?

    • Important economic hub: The UAE has emerged as an important economic hub not just within the context of the Middle East/West Asia, but also globally.
    • Strategic location: The UAE, due to its strategic location, has emerged as an important economic centre in the world.
    • Although the UAE has diversified its economy, ‘the hydrocarbon sector remains very important followed by services and manufacturing.
    • Within services, financial services, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate and business services are the main contributors.
    • As part of the GCC, the UAE has strong economic ties with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, meaning the UAE shares a common market and a customs union with these nations.
    • Under the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) Agreement, the UAE has free trade access to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, Palestine, Syria, Libya, and Yemen.

    India-UAE trade and investment ties

    • India and the UAE established diplomatic relations in 1972.
    • The India-UAE total trade merchandise has been valued at U.S.$52.76 billion for the first nine months of the fiscal year 2021-22, making the UAE India’s third-largest trading partner.
    • As India and the UAE strive to further deepen trade and investment ties, the soon-to-be-announced early harvest agreement comes at the most opportune time.
    • The aim is to boost bilateral merchandise trade to above U.S.$100 billion and services trade to U.S.$15 billion in five years.
    • Attractive export market: As we are witnessing a big turnaround in manufacturing, the UAE would be an attractive export market for Indian electronics, automobiles, and other engineering products.
    • Ninth biggest investor: The UAE’s investment in India is estimated to be around U.S.$11.67 billion, which makes it the ninth biggest investor in India.
    • On the other hand, many Indian companies have set up manufacturing units either as joint ventures or in Special Economic Zones for cement, building materials, textiles, engineering products, consumer electronics, etc.

    Challenges

    • The UAE tariff structure is bound with the GCC, and the applied average tariff rate is 5%. Therefore, the scope of addressing Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) becomes very important.
    • The reflection of NTBs can be seen through Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) which have mostly been covered by Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). The UAE has 451 SPS notifications.
    • Most of the notifications are related to consumer information, labelling, licensing or permit requirements and import monitoring and surveillance requirements.
    • These compliances pose a challenge for Indian exporters.

    Conclusion

    This FTA with the UAE will pave the way for India to enter the UAE’s strategic location, and have relatively easy access to the Africa market and its various trade partners which can help India to become a part of that supply chain, especially in handlooms, handicrafts, textiles and pharma.

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  • India must prioritise stability in Myanmar

    Context

    One year ago, the military in Myanmar attempted to grab power from the elected civilian government in a dramatic coup. Meanwhile, the deposed civilian lawmakers who were elected in free-and-fair elections in November 2020 put together their own government known as the National Unity Government (NUG).

    The current situation in Myanmar

    • The coup faced popular resistance from the first day, with mass protests bringing the country to a halt.
    • According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, as of January 28, 1,499 civilians have been killed in Myanmar since the coup.
    • Dozens of civilian militias, called People’s Defence Forces (PDF), now armed with more sophisticated weapons, mushroomed in nearly every region and state.
    • Today, the military is having to fight on multiple fronts, as even powerful ethnic armed groups in the north, northwest, and east have joined forces with the PDFs.

    India’s approach towards situation in Myanmar

    • Balanced approach: Since the coup, India has taken a balanced diplomatic approach on Myanmar, calling for restraint, restoration of democracy, and release of political prisoners, but also maintaining its lines of communication with the military.
    • Avoiding sanctions: India has also firmly stayed away from imposing sanctions on the junta.

    Why does India need to recalibrate its approach?

    • The last 12 months have made it clear that the military is incapable of providing the kind of political, economic, and social stability that India needs in Myanmar to advance its interests, including development projects.
    • Public faith in the military as a state institution is at its lowest.
    • Northeastern border issue: For New Delhi, India’s Northeastern border with Myanmar remains on top of the bilateral agenda.
    • However, even on this, the military has damaged whatever semblance of stability was left.
    • Sagaing region, which borders three Northeast Indian states, has seen the highest number of clashes so far.
    • Chin state, bordering Mizoram and Manipur, has seen dramatic military offensives in civilian areas, which have forced thousands to flee into India.
    • The Myanmar military has roped in Manipuri insurgents as mercenaries to attack anti-junta forces, in exchange for safe haven.

    Way forward

    • New Delhi must reconsider its partnerships in Myanmar and invest in those entities that can not only provide a stable political environment overall but also effectively secure its security interests along the border.
    • The NUG enjoys much more mass popularity than the military, which means it is in a position to restore calm.
    • China has strong links with ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar, but not with the new PDFs.
    • So, if India really wants to offset Chinese influence in Myanmar, it needs to take this opportunity to forge new friendships.

    Conclusion

    It is time India rapidly expanded its links with these entities, instead of playing by the old rules.

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  • Back in news: Liberation of Goa

    The PM recently took a jibe at then PM Nehru, saying that it could have liberated Goa in 1947 itself had Nehru sent the Indian Army there.

    What is the news?

    • Goa was liberated 15 years after India attained freedom.
    • PM Modi accused Nehru as guilty of leaving satyagrahis in the dismay, refusing to send the Indian Army to liberate Goa, even after 25 of them were shot dead by the Portuguese Army.

    Goa’s Colonization: A backgrounder

    • Goa became a Portuguese colony in 1510, when Admiral Afonso de Albuquerque defeated the forces of the sultan of Bjiapur, Yusuf Adil Shah.
    • The next four and a half centuries saw one of Asia’s longest colonial encounters — Goa found itself at the intersection of competing regional and global powers.
    • It received a religious and cultural ferment that lead eventually to the germination of a distinct Goan identity that continues to be a source of contestation even today.
    • By the turn of the twentieth century, Goa had started to witness an upsurge of nationalist sentiment opposed to Portugal’s colonial rule, in sync with the anti-British nationalist movement.

    Beginning of freedom movement

    • Tristao de Braganza Cunha, celebrated as the father of Goan nationalism, founded the Goa National Congress at the Calcutta session of the Indian National Congress in 1928.
    • In 1946, the socialist leader Ram Manohar Lohia led a historic rally in Goa that gave a call for civil liberties and freedom, and eventual integration with India.
    • This event became a watershed moment in Goa’s freedom struggle.
    • At the same time, there was a thinking that civil liberties could not be won by peaceful methods, and a more aggressive armed struggle was needed.
    • This was the view of the Azad Gomantak Dal (AGD), whose co-founder Prabhakar Sinari is one of the few freedom fighters still living today.
    • Finally, Goa was liberated on December 19, 1961 by swift Indian military action that lasted less than two days.

    Recognition of Goa

    • The Supreme Court of India recognized the validity of the annexation and rejected the continued applicability of the law of occupation.
    • In a treaty with retroactive effect, Portugal recognized Indian sovereignty in 1974.
    • Under the jus cogens rule, forceful annexations including the annexation of Goa are held as illegal since they have taken place after the UN Charter came into force.

    Why was Goa left un-colonized?

    As India moved towards independence, however, it became clear that Goa would not be free any time soon, because of a variety of complex factors.

    • No immediate war: Then PM Nehru felt that if he launched a military operation (like in Hyderabad) to oust the colonial rulers, his image as a global leader of peace would be impacted.
    • Trauma of Partition: The trauma of Partition and the massive rupture that followed, coupled with the war with Pakistan, kept the Government of India from opening another front.
    • Internationalization of the issue: This might have led the international community to get involved.
    • No demand from within: It was Gandhi’s opinion that a lot of groundwork was still needed to raise the consciousness of the people, and the diverse political voices emerging within be brought under a common umbrella.

    Nehruvian dilemma

    • India’s global image: Nehru was headed in shaping India’s position in the comity of nations.
    • Trying peaceful options: He was trying to exhaust all options available to him given the circumstances that India was emerging from.
    • Portuguese obsession: Portugal had changed its constitution in 1951 to claim Goa not as a colonial possession, but as an overseas province.
    • Portugal in NATO: The move was apparently aimed at making Goa a part of the newly formed North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) military alliance. Hence the collective security clause of the treaty would be triggered.
    • Weak indigenous push: Nehru saw it prudent to pursue bilateral diplomatic measures with Portugal to negotiate a peaceful transfer while, at the same time, a more ‘overt’ indigenous push for liberation.

    Why did Nehru wait until December 1961 to launch a full-scale military offensive?

    India could no longer be seen to delay the liberation of Goa because:

    • Portuguese offensive against Satyagrahis: The firing incident also provoked a sharp response from the Government of India, which snapped diplomatic and consular ties with Portugal in 1955.
    • India as torchbearer of de-colonization: India got itself firmly established as a leader of the Non Aligned World and Afro Asian Unity, with decolonisation and anti-imperialism as the pillars of its policy.
    • Criticisms from African nations: An Indian Council of Africa seminar on Portuguese colonies organized in 1961 heard strong views from African as this was hampering their own struggles against the ruthless regime.
    • Weakening Colonialism: The delegates were certain that the Portuguese empire would collapse the day Goa was liberated.

    The debate in 2022

    • Politics needs to be charitable to history, because at some point it would be put to the same scrutiny and judgment as it becomes history itself.
    • Goa has seen 60 years of eventful liberation and successful amalgamation in the Indian Union.
    • It is more important for it to look ahead to its future than to rapidly receding, increasingly dim images in the rear-view mirror.

     

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