Subject: Bilateral Relations

Context

The recent short visit to Myanmar by India’s Foreign Secretary had a clearly-etched mandate: to deepen cooperation with an important neighbour. His mission succeeded to a large extent, but challenges remain.

Background of the current political scenario in Myanmar

• Transition to democracy and derailment: Since the military coup on February 1, 2021, the international community has stayed divided on how to address the derailment of Myanmar’s transition to democracy.
•  For a decade, the country’s system based on power-sharing between the military and elected representatives ran well enough.
• An overwhelming electoral victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in November 2020, unnerved the military leadership.
• The Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) moved faster, seizing power in violation of the Constitution and putting down the Opposition with an iron hand.
• Global reaction: Global dismay was evident in the western sanctions, but others such as Russia saw the opportunity to strengthen ties with the new rulers.
• China took urgent steps to stabilise and expand cooperation with the military regime.
• The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) first showed creativity through its ‘Five-Point Consensus’ formula, but later its unity stood damaged once Myanmar’s top leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing refused to cooperate.

India’s position and bilateral concerns

• In Indian foreign Secretary Mr. Shringla visit he succeeded in holding substantive discussions with various stakeholders.
• India’s position: India’s position, as conveyed to Myanmar, is similar to and supportive of ASEAN: release of political prisoners; resolution of issues through dialogue; cessation of “all violence”; and full cooperation with ASEAN.
• Assistance for capacity building: In recent years, India has assisted Myanmar through capacity-building programmes for strengthening the transition to democracy.
• This assistance remains available, but it is not an offer of mediation by India in the military-NLD conflict.
• This burden will have to be borne by ASEAN.
• India’s concerns: India’s principal concerns pertaining to border security and stability in its neighbourhood were clearly conveyed, especially the noticeable escalation of activities of anti-India insurgent groups.
• Refugee issue: The second issue — the outcome of Myanmar’s instability — is that of refugees. Several thousands of Myanmar people have sought shelter in Mizoram.
• This will only be reversed by a political settlement in Myanmar, through dialogue.
• Economic cooperation: Economic cooperation has always been a major agenda item in all bilateral discussions with Myanmar.
• Central to this is India’s long-delayed commitment to “expeditious implementation” of mega initiatives such as the Trilateral Highway and Kaladan projects.

Way forward

• China is not the only friend: India continues to have high equity in Myanmar, which it must now carefully leverage.
•  It is reflected in the special gesture made by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to receive Mr. Shringla and hold detailed discussions in Yangon. This is unusual.
• The protocol departure for Mr. Shringla revealed current political realities which should be carefully factored in against the argument that China is the only friend Myanmar has.
• Leverage the gainst of the visit: India can leverage the gains of this visit and keep up the momentum by inviting Myanmar’s Foreign Minister at an appropriate time as well as other important stakeholders to India for deliberations with their counterparts here.

Conclusion

The single goal should be to put Myanmar back on the path of becoming “a stable, democratic and federal union.

Context

The government is inviting the leaders of the five Central Asian countries — Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan — as guests for Republic Day on January 26.

Significance of Central Asian region for India

• Return of Taliban in Afghanistan: The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan has made Central Asia a region where great contestations for influence are unfolding.
• There is a growing awareness that for leveraging influence in Kabul and harvesting that influence in the form of material gains, a firm footing in Central Asia is a prerequisite.
• Economic dimension: Given the vast untapped mineral wealth of the region encompassing the five Central Asian countries and Afghanistan — estimated to be worth a few trillion dollars — there is a significant economic dimension to the unfolding saga.
• Geopolitical angle: Washington hopes to create in Central Asia a vector of its Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China and Russia. At the same time, governments in Moscow and Beijing are circling the wagons.

Suggestions for India

• India needs to work on an intricate network of relationships with the regional states while remaining mindful of the “big picture”.
• Delhi’s non-aligned mindset needs to be turned into a strategic asset to navigate its long-term interests.
• India’s membership of the BRICS and SCO will help.
• Cooperation of  Russia and China: The deepening of the traditional Indo-Russian mutual understanding has injected dynamism into Delhi’s regional strategy on the whole.
•  It is bound to have a calming effect on India’s tensions with China.
• Delhi cannot have an effective Central Asia strategy without the cooperation of these two big powers.
• Regional connectivity: India can use the card of regional connectivity to stimulate partnerships.
• The time may have come to reopen the files on the TAPI and IPI gas pipeline projects. Both involve Pakistan.
• Normalisation of India-Russia ties: Russia is well-placed to act as guarantor and help build both these pipelines, while China too will see advantages in the normalisation of India-Pakistan ties.

New geoeconomic partnership

• Recently concluded third meeting of the India-Central Asia Dialogue in Delhi served a purpose to sensitise the Central Asian interlocutors that it attaches primacy to geoeconomics.
• But India will have a challenge on its hands to flesh out the “4Cs” concept that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar presented at the event — commerce, capacity enhancement, connectivity, and contact being the four pillars of a new geoeconomic partnership.
• The key areas are transit and transport, logistics network, regional and international transport corridors, free trade agreements, manufacturing industry and job creation.
• They ought to be front-loaded into India’s Central Asian strategy.
• Certainly, the EAEU integration processes must be speeded up.

Consider the question “With changing geopolitical scenario, India’s stake in Central Asia has drastically increased. In the context of this, examine India’s outreach efforts toward the region and the challenges it faces in it.”

Conclusion

A host of new possibilities open up if India’s initiative on Central Asia runs on a parallel track with an improvement in relations with China.

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Context

Thirty years ago this week, the Soviet Union collapsed — after seven decades of an expansive global role. Few countries have been as significant as Russia for modern India’s evolution.

Impact of Russian geopolitics on India’s worldviews

• Russia’s relations with the West have always had consequences for India’s international relations.
• India’s fear of a unipolar world dominated by the US: After the collapse of the USSR in December 1991, the loss of the long-standing Soviet ally left Delhi in fears of a unipolar world dominated by the US.
• These anxieties were accentuated by post-Soviet Russia’s quick embrace of the US and the West.
• However, by the turn of the millennium, relations between Russia and the West had begun to sour.
• That drew India once again closer to Russia.
• Russia’s growing closeness to China: Moscow also roped in Beijing to build a new coalition — the RIC — to promote a multipolar world that would limit the dangers of American hyperpower.
• Improvement in India-US relations: India’s fears of the unipolar moment turned out to be overblown and Delhi’s ties with Washington began to see rapid improvement since 2000.
• The upswing in India’s ties with America, however, coincided with a steady downturn in the relations between Russia and the US.

Tension between Russia and the West

• The continuous escalation of tensions between Russia and the West culminated in the last few weeks in Ukraine — at the heart of Europe.
• Moscow’s military mobilisation on the frontier with Ukraine — that was part of the Soviet Union until 1991 — raised alarm bells of a new war between the forces of Russia and the US-led European military alliance, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
• Last week, Russia presented several proposals for a new European security architecture.
• Moscow is calling for an end to NATO’s further eastward expansion.
• Moscow also wants NATO to rescind its earlier promise to make Ukraine and Georgia — two former Soviet Republics — members of the military alliance.

Major compromises between US and Russia

• The resolution of US-Russian differences, however, involves some major compromises.
• Russia aware of the over reliance on China: While Russia has demonstrated that its interests can’t be simply ignored by the West, it also recognises the costs of a prolonged confrontation with the US and Europe and the dangers of relying solely on China to secure its geopolitical interests.
• Russia seeking accommodation with US and Europe: While Moscow is unlikely to abandon the partnership with China, there is no doubt that an accommodation with America and Europe is a high priority for Russia.
• US to focus on China challenge: The US, which is now focused on the China challenge, appears interested in easing the conflict with Russia.
• Despite its extraordinary military resources, Washington can’t afford to fight in both Asia (with China) and Europe (with Russia).

Implications for India

• Role of ideological sentiment: While coping with the complex dynamic of Russia’s relations with the West has been an enduring element of independent India’s foreign policy, Delhi’s thinking on Russia has too often been coloured by ideological sentiment.
• In Delhi, the tendency is to over-determine Russia’s contradictions with the West.
• It is not Russia’s national destiny to forever confront the West.
• Russia’s current problems with the West are not about ideological principles.
• It is about the terms of an honourable accommodation.
• Prior to the 1917 revolution, Russia was a leading part of the European great power system.
• Delhi can’t influence the new effort to build a mutually acceptable security order in Europe, but it can welcome and support it.
• Role of Asian geopolitics: That the pressure for this attempted reset in Russia’s relations with the West is coming from Asian geopolitics is of some significance.
• A reconciliation between Russia and the West will make it a lot easier for India to manage its own security challenges.

Conclusion

Delhi knows that stabilising the Asian balance of power will be difficult without a measure of US-Russian cooperation in Europe. If Moscow — at odds with the West in the last two decades — deepens its current close alignment with Beijing, it will be a lot harder to prevent Chinese dominance over Asia.

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Context

It may be too early to say how the American withdrawal from Afghanistan would shape regional geopolitics in Asia and the great power contest between the United States and its competitors. But it is certainly one of those developments that will have a far-reaching impact on global politics.

Two narratives about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan

• There are two dominant narratives about the American withdrawal.
• Realignment in foreign policy: The first narrative is that the U.S. exited the country on its own will as it is undertaking a larger realignment in its foreign policy.
• Failure to win the war: The other one is that the U.S. failed to win the war in Afghanistan and, like in the case of Vietnam, was forced to withdraw from the country.
• Focus on China: The reorientation that is under way in American foreign policy, focused on China, certainly played a role in the Afghan withdrawal.
• But that does not obscure the fact that the world’s most powerful military and economic power failed to win the war in Afghanistan against the Taliban even after fighting them for 20 years.

Erosion of the US’s ability in shaping geopolitical outcomes

•  The gradual erosion of the U.S.’s ability in shaping geopolitical outcomes in faraway regions has already shaken up the structures of American unipolarity.
• Withdrawal from Afghanistan is not an isolated incident: The Afghan withdrawal was not an isolated incident.
• In Iraq and Libya, it failed to establish political stability and order after invasions.
• It could not stop Russia taking Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. In Syria, it was outmanoeuvred by Vladimir Putin.
• Finally, the way American troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power strengthened this perception of great power fatigue and emboldened America’s rivals to openly challenge the U.S.-centric “rules-based order.”

Three geopolitical challenges facing the US

• [1]Aggressive Russia: Russia has amassed about 175,000 troops on its border with Ukraine.
• Western intelligence agencies claim that Russian President Vladimir Putin could order an invasion of Ukraine.
• Russian sphere of influence: From the migrant crisis in Belarus to the troop mobilisation in Ukraine, Russia is unmistakably sending a message to the West that the region stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a Russian sphere of influence.
• [2] Iran issue:  Iran, which has stepped up its nuclear programme after the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear deal, has refused to hold direct talks with the U.S. 
• Iran insists that the U.S. should first remove the sanctions and give assurance that a future President would not violate the terms of the agreement.
• [3] Assertive China: China is sending dozens of fighter jets into the so-called Taiwan Air Defence Identification Zone almost on a weekly basis, triggering speculation on whether Beijing was considering taking the self-ruled island by force.
• As the U.S. is trying to shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific region to tackle China’s rise, China is becoming more and more assertive in its periphery, seeking strategic depth.

Implications

• Limited choice: The pivot to Asia has limited America’s options elsewhere. For example, what could the U.S. do to deter Mr. Putin from making the next military move in Europe.
• With regard to Iran, if the U.S. blinks first and lifts the sanctions, it could be read as another sign of weakness.
• If it does not and if the Vienna talks collapse, Iran could continue to enrich uranium to a higher purity, attaining a de facto nuclear power status without a bomb (like Japan), which would be against America’s declared goals in West Asia.
• The Afghan withdrawal and the downsizing in West Asia suggest that America’s strategic focus has shifted towards China.

Conclusion

This transition, from American unipolarity into something that is still unknown, has put America in a strategic dilemma: Should it stay focused on China, preparing itself for the next bipolar contest; or continue to act as a global policeman of the liberal order that is under attack from multiple fronts?

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Context

When Delhi thinks of technological cooperation with major powers, the US, Europe and Japan come to mind. The missing link in India’s technological mind space, however, is the United Kingdom.

How India can benefit from technology partnership with Britain

• Britain was the first nation to industrialise and has a long tradition of scientific research and technological development.
• With top-ranking universities and the golden triangle of science and innovation — London, Oxford and Cambridge — Britain is one of the world’s top technology powers.
• WIPO ranking: This year, the World Intellectual Property Organisation ranked Britain fourth in the global innovation index.
• India is far behind at the 46th position.
• India, then, could gain in a technology partnership with Britain.

Overview of the India-UK bilateral ties

• Pakistan angle: India’s foreign policy community can’t shake off the Pakistan prism in viewing London.
• To be sure, London’s advocacy of Pakistan has always irritated Delhi.
• Instead of complaining about London’s South Asian policy, Delhi now simply ignores London’s claims for a special role in India’s political disputes with Pakistan.
• By focusing on the positive, Delhi is betting it can reduce the traditional negative elements in the engagement with the UK.
• At the same time, Delhi recognises the enormous strategic possibilities with Britain and is willing to invest political capital to build on those synergies.
• Meanwhile, the steady relative decline of Pakistan — its economy is now about a tenth of India’s — and Delhi’s deepening strategic partnership with Washington are also encouraging London to rethink its past approach to the Subcontinent.
• India is fully conscious of UK’s enduring global salience.
• External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has often highlighted Britain’s continuing weight in the world as the fifth-largest economy, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a major financial centre, and a leading hub of higher education and technology.
• Britain also enjoys a global maritime reach and a measure of political influence across the world.

Possibilities for partnership in the technological domain

• While a trade agreement between Delhi and London is said to be imminent, it is in the technological domain that the prospects are immense but under-explored.
• There is insufficient awareness in India’s strategic community of the British moves to put science and technology at the very heart of its political, economic, security and foreign policies.
•  London announced a raft of measures this year starting with a major report on “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: An Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development, and Foreign Policy”.
• One of the broad themes stand out from these initiatives, which is forming a coalition of like-minded countries.
• London wants to build a coalition of like-minded countries to reshape the global governance of technology.
• This includes strengthening technological ties with the traditionally close partners in the Anglosphere — US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand — as well as other partners like Japan and India.
• All these elements of British policy mesh with India’s own economic, political, and security interests.
• The British technology initiatives are also aligned with the technological agenda of the Quad — or the Quadrilateral forum that brings together Australia, India, Japan, and the US.

Consider the question “In India’s partnership with the UK, it is the technological domain where prospects are immense but underexplored. Comment.”

Conclusion

For Delhi, the essence of the new alliance with Britain is fourfold — generate domestic prosperity, enhance national security, climb up the global technology hierarchy, and contribute to the construction of a free, open, and democratic global technological order.

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Back2Basics: Major themes of the policy report on “Global Britain in a Competitive Age”

• [1] Leverage technology to “level up” the regional and social inequalities in Britain.
• [2] Ensure Britain’s privileged position as a leading science power.
• [3] Focus on technological innovation to drive Britain’s future economic growth.
• [4] Build internal security resilience against new technological threats.
• [5] Modernise the intelligence apparatus with the help of new technologies.
• [6] Integrate technology into the national defence strategy as new capabilities like AI become as consequential as battle-tanks, ships and fighter jets.
• [7] Project technological power to counter malevolent actors in the international system.
• [8]A coalition of like-minded countries.

Context

The Russian president is on visit to India. Visits by Russian presidents to India always invoke a sense of nostalgia. The Moscow-Delhi relationship dates back to the Cold War era and it has been strong ever since.

Factors limiting the possibilities for bilateral partnership

• The conflict between Russia and the West: One factor is the continuing conflict between the Kremlin and the West.
• Absence of trade between India and Russia: The other is the absence of a thriving commercial relationship between India and Russia.
• India-US relations: India’s relations with Washington has never been as intense as it is today.
• Russia-China relations: Moscow’s embrace of Beijing is tighter than ever.
• The US-China rivalry: That the US and China are now at each other’s throats makes the great power dynamic a lot more complicated for India and Russia.

Importance of trade ties

• Need for robust business ties: That Delhi and Moscow have problems with the best friend of the other would have been more manageable if business ties between India and Russia were solid.
• Where India and Russia have greater freedom is in the economic domain, but their failure to boost the commercial relationship has been stark.
• India-Russia annual trade in goods is stuck at about $10 billion.
• Slow progress on enhancing trade and investment ties: During the last 20 summits with Putin, the two sides have repeatedly affirmed the importance of enhancing trade and investment ties; but progress has been hard to come by.
• How to fix the problem? The problem clearly can’t be fixed at the level of governments.
• The Russian business elites gravitate to Europe and China. The Indian corporations are focused on America and China.

Russia-US ties and its implications for India

• Implications for India? The structural constraints posed by the great power dynamic and vastly different appreciation of the regional security environment could be reduced if matters improve between Washington and Moscow.
• In Washington, the Biden administration recognises the importance of ending this permanent crisis in US-Russian relations.
• Winning a strategic competition with China: The Biden administration, which is focused on winning the intensifying strategic competition with China, values a stable relationship with Russia.
•  Nothing pleases Moscow more than the image of being Washington’s equal on the global stage.
• Relief for India: A less conflictual relationship between Washington and Moscow will be a huge relief for India; but Delhi can’t nudge them closer to each other.

Why the partnership with India matters to Russia

• Dangers of excessive reliance on China: Persistent conflict with the US, Europe, and Japan have moved Moscow ever closer to Beijing.
• But Moscow knows the dangers of relying solely on a neighbour which has risen to greatness — the Chinese economy at nearly $15 trillion today is nearly 10 times larger than that of Russia.
• Sustaining the traditional partnership with India: While resetting Russia’s relations with the West is hard, sustaining the traditional partnership with Delhi is of some political value to Moscow.
• Longstanding defence ties: Russia is pleased that the S-400 missile sale has gone through despite strong US opposition.
• For it signals Delhi’s commitment not to let Washington roll back India’s longstanding defence ties with Russia.
• Russia knows India’s strategic cooperation with the US has acquired an unstoppable momentum; and Delhi knows it has no veto over the Sino-Russian strategic partnership.
• Moscow and Delhi are learning to live with this uncomfortable unreality and stabilising their political ties within that context.

Consider the question “While both India and Russia have drifted apart from the depth of past partnerships, there is a need for stabilising their political ties within the changed context.Comment.”

Context

Delhi and Moscow have no reason to be satisfied with the poor state of their commercial ties. The success of Monday’s summit lies not in squeezing more out of bilateral defence ties, but in laying a clear path for expansive economic cooperation, and generating a better understanding of each other’s imperatives on Afghanistan and the Indo-Pacific.

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