Subject: Bilateral Relations

Context

The national security policy statement issued last week by the government of Pakistan acknowledges the need for change.

Why does it matter for India?

• India’s stakes in a stable Pakistan are higher than anyone else in the world.
• Therefore, Delhi must pay close attention to the internal debates within Islamabad on the imperatives of major change in Pakistan’s national direction.
• But as critics in Pakistan insist, the policy offers no clues on how to go about it.
• The classified version probably has a clear strategy on how to accelerate economic growth, build national cohesion, and revitalise its foreign and security policies.

Overview of India’s transformation after 1990s

• The crises that Pakistan confronts today are quite similar to those Delhi faced at the turn of the 1990s.
• Economic challenge: India’s post-Independence old economic model was on the verge of collapse.
• Political instability: The era of massive domestic political mandates was over and weak coalitions government were in place.
• Challenges in International relations: The Soviet Union, India’s best friend in the Cold War, fell off the map and the Russian successor was more interested in integrating with the West.
• India found that its political ties with all other major powers — the US, Europe, China and Japan — were underdeveloped at the end of the Cold War.
• Pakistan, meanwhile, was running proxy wars in India even as it mobilised international pressures against Delhi on Kashmir.
• Within a decade, though, India was on a different trajectory.
• . Its reformed economy was on a high growth path.
• India was hailed as an emerging power that would eventually become the third-largest economy in the world and a military power to reckon with.
• Delhi also cut a deal with Washington to become a part of the global nuclear order on reasonable terms.
• This involved a series of structural economic reforms, the recasting of foreign policy, and developing a new culture of power-sharing within coalitions and between the Centre and the states.

The economic transformation of Bangladesh

• The economic transformation of Bangladesh has been equally impressive.
• Since Sheikh Hasina returned to power in 2009, Bangladesh focused on economic development, stopped support to terrorism, and improved ties with the larger of its two neighbours — India. 
• As a result, Bangladesh’s economy in 2021 (GDP at $350 billion) is well ahead of Pakistan ($280 billion).

How Pakistan missed the opportunity

• Pakistan chose a different path.
• Having ousted the Soviet superpower from Afghanistan in the late 1980s, Pakistan was ready to apply the model of cross-border terrorism to shake Kashmir loose from India and turn Afghanistan into a protectorate.
• Supporting jihadi groups was seen as a low-cost strategy to achieve Pakistan’s long-standing strategic objectives in the neighbourhood.
• These grand geopolitical obsessions left little bandwidth for the much-needed economic modernisation of Pakistan.
• Islamabad, which relentlessly pursued parity with Delhi, now finds that the Indian economy at $3.1 trillion is more than 10 times larger than that of Pakistan.

Factors that explain change in Pakistan’s policy

• Diminishing role in geopolitics: In the past, Pakistan had much success in pursuing a foreign policy that not only balanced India with the support of the West, but also carved out a large role for itself in the Middle East and more broadly the Muslim world.
• Today, barring the United Kingdom, Pakistan’s equities in the West have steadily diminished.
• Weakened ties in the Middle East: Meanwhile, it has weakened its traditionally strong ties in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
• Weakened ties with the US: Although its all-weather ties with China have gone from strength to strength, the unfolding conflict between Washington and Beijing has put Pakistan in an uncomfortable strategic situation.
• Pakistan’s support for violent religious extremism has also begun to backfire.
• A permissive environment for terrorism has now attracted severe financial penalties from the international system.

India’s changed approach towards Pakistan

• Delhi, which was prepared to make concessions on Kashmir in the 1990s and 2000s, has taken Kashmir off the table and is ready to use military force in response to major terror attacks.
• Delhi’s attitude towards Islamabad now oscillates between insouciance and aggression.
• Unlike in the past, the West is no longer pressuring India to accommodate Pakistan on Kashmir.
• The US is eager for India’s support in balancing China in the Indo-Pacific.

Conclusion

All these shifts together have compelled Pakistan to rethink its policies.  There is no guarantee that the change will be definitive and for the good. But if it is, Delhi should be prepared to respond positively.

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Context

The year 2022 marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and India.

Historical background of India-Japan relationship

• We have a long history of people-to-people exchanges that can be traced back to the sixth century.
• Buddhism was brought to Japan and, in 752.
• During Meiji Restoration in the late 19th Century — Japan needed natural resources to modernise its industry.
• Many Japanese travelled to India to purchase cotton, iron ore, etc.
• Formal relations between Japan and India began in 1952.
• After the Second World War, instead of signing the multilateral San Francisco Peace Treaty, India opted for concluding a bilateral peace treaty with Japan, considering that honour and equality should be ensured for Japan to rejoin the international community.
• But even before the establishment of diplomatic relations, the goodwill between the people of the two countries was deeply rooted through business, academic and cultural exchanges.
• After 70 years of multi-layered exchanges, the relationship between our two countries grew into a “Special Strategic and Global Partnership”. 

Future possibilities

[1] As democratic countries, contribute to global peace and prosperity

• As democratic countries in Asia, India and Japan can cooperate to contribute to global peace and prosperity.
• We share political, economic and strategic interests based on the firm foundations of common values and traditions.
• We are continuing our efforts to build a rules-based free and open international order.

[2] Cooperation in security

• There are a plethora of fields that we can cooperate in security issues including cyber security, outer space and economic security.

[3] Augmenting economic relations

•  For long, Japan has been the largest ODA (Official Development Assistance) donor to India.
• One of the most recent and ongoing examples of our collaboration is the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail project.
• Japan is also one of the largest investors in India.
• Both countries have also promoted economic cooperation in other countries to enhance social infrastructure and connectivity.
• Our economic partnership can further strengthen the economy of the Indo-Pacific, as well as the world economy.

[4] Cultural exchange

• Cultural exchanges including literature, movies, music, sports and academics are essential for our relations, enabling a better understanding.

Consider the question “The year 2022 marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and India. The future offers enormous possibilities for the partnership. In context of this, examine the future possibilities the two countries can explore.” 

Conclusion

India-Japan ties will continue to flourish. Our long history substantiates that.

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Meiji Restoration in Japan

• In Japanese history, the political revolution in 1868 that brought about the final demise of the Tokugawa shogunate (military government)—thus ending the Edo (Tokugawa) period (1603–1867)—and, at least nominally, returned control of the country to direct imperial rule under Mutsuhito (the emperor Meiji).
• In a wider context, however, the Meiji Restoration of 1868 came to be identified with the subsequent era of major political, economic, and social change—the Meiji period (1868–1912)—that brought about the modernization and Westernization of the country.

Context

The geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, which is changing fast. As it moves into 2022, the region will carry the imprint of the past five years, and will have to chart a course through inter-state tensions and crises, using both diplomacy and military preparedness.

What will shape the geopolitics and geoeconomics of the Indo-Pacific?

• Key players in the region: The region is central to world economy and peace, and nine countries are key players: the US, China, Japan, India, Germany, the UK, Russia, Australia and France.
• The geopolitics and geo-economics of the Indo-Pacific will be largely shaped by the interplay of relations among these nations.
• US-China relations: Of paramount importance is the US-China equation.
• Expect this relationship to be marked by continually adversarial, competitive and cooperative traits.
• Beijing’s south/east China policy, aggressive postures towards Taiwan, human rights violations in Xinjiang, the subjugation of Hong Kong’s citizenry and assertive economic outreach in the Indo-Pacific — these will weigh heavily on US-China relations.

A significant role of groupings and individual nations

• In this standoff, the role of new groupings and individual nations is significant.
• Role of Quad: Foremost are the Quad, a strategic partnership between the US, India, Japan and Australia and the militaristic AUKUS (Australia, UK, US). 
• India-Australia ties: Meanwhile, India and Australia are on track to deepen ties, not only bilaterally but also with the other two Quad powers.
• The next Quad summit, probably hosted by Japan, will cement the grouping.
• EU’s role: The EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy, announced last September, aims at increasing its economic and security profile in, and linkages with, the region.
• UK’s role: Only by being more strategic and less mercantilist, more candid and assertive with China, and more cooperative with partners such as India, can the EU — and its former member the UK — hope to become vital players in the Indo-Pacific.
• ASEAN, located in the middle of the Indo-Pacific waters, faces the heat of China’s aggression and the sharpening great power rivalry.
•  It must enhance its realism and shed its tendency of wishing away problems.

Suggestions for India

• 1]Strengthen the Quad – especially by ensuring that the grouping fulfils its commitment to deliver at least one billion vaccine doses to Indo-Pacific nations by December 2022.
• India must protect its established relationship with Russia, and show some resilience in dialogue with Beijing.
• 2] Enhance relations with ASEAN nations: It must enhance cooperation with key Southeast Asian partners —Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines and Thailand — while humouring ASEAN as a grouping.
• 3] Give attention to African and Indian Ocean island states: The eastern and southern planks of Africa and the Indian Ocean island states need continued high policy attention and financial resources.
• A clear economic and trade agenda to follow the flag in this vital region, is certain to yield long-term dividends.

Consider the question “Indo-Pacific will present India strategic and economic opportunities that India must not miss. However, the region will have to chart a course through inter-state tensions and crises. Comment.”

Conclusion

India has done well by fulfilling its humanitarian duties during the pandemic. Learning how to convert them smartly into economic and strategic opportunities in its periphery is the focused task for the nation in 2022.

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Context

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosts the five Central Asia leaders at the Republic Day Parade on January 26, it will send a strong signal — of the new prominence of the Central Asian region in India’s security calculations.

Why India needs effective continental policy

• Factors intensifying geopolitical competition: China’s assertive rise, withdrawal of forces of the United States/North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) from Afghanistan, the rise of Islamic fundamentalist forces, the changing dynamics of the historic stabilising role of Russia (most recently in Kazakhstan) and related multilateral mechanisms — the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, and the Eurasian Economic Union — have all set the stage for a sharpening of the geopolitical competition on the Eurasian landmass.
• Progress in ties: India’s continental strategy, in which the Central Asian region is an indispensable link, has progressed intermittently over the past two decades — promoting connectivity, incipient defence and security cooperation, enhancing India’s soft power and boosting trade and investment.
• It is laudable, but as is now apparent, it is insufficient to address the broader geopolitical challenges engulfing the region.
• To meet this challenge, evolving an effective continental strategy for India will be a complex and long-term exercise.

Leveraging maritime power

• India’s maritime vision and ambitions have grown dramatically during the past decade, symbolised by its National Maritime Strategy, the Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) and major initiatives relating to the Indo-Pacific and the Quad, in which maritime security figures prominently.
•  It was also a response to the dramatic rise of China as a military power.
• Importance: Maritime security is important to keeping sea lanes open for trade, commerce and freedom of navigation, resisting Chinese territorial aggrandisement in the South China Sea and elsewhere, and helping littoral states resist Chinese bullying tactics in interstate relations.
• However, maritime security and associated dimensions of naval power are not sufficient instruments of statecraft as India seeks diplomatic and security constructs to strengthen deterrence against Chinese unilateral actions and the emergence of a unipolar Asia.
• Bulwarks against Chinese maritime expansionist gains are relatively easier to build and its gains easier to reverse than the long-term strategic gains that China hopes to secure on continental Eurasia.
• Centrality of Central Asia: Like Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) centrality is key to the Indo-Pacific, centrality of the Central Asian states should be key for Eurasia.

Challenges for India

1] Connectivity challenge

• Connectivity means nothing when access is denied through persistent neighbouring state hostility contrary to the canons of international law.
• India has been subject for over five decades to a land embargo by Pakistan that has few parallels in relations between two states that are technically not at war.
• Lack of alternative route: Difficulties have arisen in operationalising an alternative route — the International North-South Transport Corridor on account of the U.S.’s hostile attitude towards Iran.
• With the recent Afghan developments, India’s physical connectivity challenges with Eurasia have only become harder.
• The marginalisation of India on the Eurasian continent in terms of connectivity must be reversed.

2] India must be aware of the limitations of the US

• The ongoing U.S.-Russia confrontation relating to Ukraine, Russian opposition to future NATO expansion and the broader questions of European security including on the issue of new deployment of intermediate-range missiles, following the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty will have profound consequences for Eurasian security.
• The U.S. would be severely stretched if it wanted to simultaneously increase its force levels in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
• A major conflict — if it erupts in Central Europe, pitting Russia, Ukraine and some European states — will stall any hopes of a substantial U.S. military pivot to the Indo-Pacific. 
• India should be cognisant of the limitations of geography, obvious gaps between strategic ambition and capacity but also the inherently different standpoints of how major maritime powers view critical questions of continental security.
• India is unique as no other peer country has the same severity of challenges on both the continental and maritime dimensions.

Way forward for India

• India would need to acquire strategic vision and deploy the necessary resources to pursue our continental interests without ignoring our interests in the maritime domain.
• This will require a more assertive push for our continental rights — namely that of transit and access, working with our partners in Central Asia, with Iran and Russia, and a more proactive engagement with economic and security agendas ranging from the SCO, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
• Striking the right balance between continental and maritime security would be the best guarantor of our long-term security interests.

Conclusion

India will need to define its own parameters of continental and maritime security consistent with its own interests. In doing so, at a time of major geopolitical change, maintaining our capacity for independent thought and action will help our diplomacy and statecraft navigate the difficult landscape and the choppy waters that lie ahead.

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Context

Nearly 20 months after the border crisis began in Ladakh, China has pressed on with aggressive diplomatic and military gestures against India.

Recent anti- India moves by China

• Beijing recently renamed 15 places in Arunachal Pradesh, following the six it had done in 2017.
• China justifies the renaming as being done on the basis of its historical, cultural and administrative jurisdiction over the area — these old names existed since ancient times which had been changed by India with its “illegal occupation”.
• On January 1, 2022, Beijing’s new land border law came into force, which provides the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with full responsibility to take steps against “invasion, encroachment, infiltration, provocation” and safeguard Chinese territory.

India’s response

• Delhi has run out of proactive options against Beijing that will force the Chinese leadership to change course on its India policy.
• The two countries have an increasingly lopsided trade relationship driven by Indian dependency on Chinese manufacturing, a situation further worsened by the Government’s mishandling of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
• To restore the status quo ante on the LAC as of April 2020, India undertook internal balancing of its military from the Pakistan border to the China border and external rebalancing through a closer partnership with the United States in the Indo-Pacific.
• Because of the China factor, the U.S. is currently looking away even as India mistreats its minorities and its democracy stands diminished.
•  India’s difficult diplomatic and military engagement with China is going to leave it more dependent on U.S. support, rendering India more vulnerable to American pressure on ‘shared values’.
• With a rising China as its neighbour and a more self-centred U.S. – which is uncomfortable with India’s reliable partner, Russia — as its friend, Delhi continues to face difficult choices.

Conclusion

Put under the harsh glare, India has been found wanting in its ability to deal with future challenges. The immediate challenge, however, remains China. It cannot be wished away and must be tackled.

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