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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • BIMSTEC

    Context

    The fifth summit of the regional grouping, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), held virtually in Colombo on March 30, has advanced the cause of regional cooperation and integration.

    Colombo package

    • Economic challenges: Representing a fifth of the world’s population that contributes only 4% of the global GDP, can this multilateral grouping trigger accelerated economic development?
    • It was clear that BIMSTEC first needed to strengthen itself — by re-defining its purpose and rejuvenating its organs and institutions.
    • The eventual result is now seen in the package of decisions and agreements announced at the latest summit.

    Achievement of Colombo Summit

    • 1] Adoption of Charter: Adopted formally, it presents BIMSTEC as “an inter-governmental organization” with “legal personality.”
    • BIMSTEC’s purposes: Defining BIMSTEC’s purposes, it lists 11 items in the first article.
    • Among them is acceleration of “the economic growth and social progress in the Bay of Bengal region”, and promotion of “multidimensional connectivity”.
    • The grouping now views itself not as a sub-regional organisation but as a regional organisation whose destiny is linked with the area around the Bay of Bengal.
    • 2] Reduction in the sectors of cooperation: The second element is the decision to re-constitute and reduce the number of sectors of cooperation from the unwieldy 14 to a more manageable seven.
    • Each member-state will serve as a lead for a sector: trade, investment and development (Bangladesh); environment and climate change (Bhutan); security, including energy (India); agriculture and food security (Myanmar); people-to-people contacts (Nepal); science, technology and innovation (Sri Lanka), and connectivity (Thailand).
    • 3] Adoption of the Master Plan for Transport Connectivity:  the summit participants adopted the Master Plan for Transport Connectivity applicable for 2018-2028.
    •  It was devised and backed by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
    • It lists 264 projects entailing a total investment of $126 billion.
    • Projects worth $55 billion are under implementation. BIMSTEC needs to generate additional funding and push for timely implementation of the projects.
    • 4] Signing of three new agreements: Finally, the package also includes three new agreements signed by member states, relating to mutual legal assistance in criminal matters, cooperation between diplomatic academies, and the establishment of a technology transfer facility in Colombo.

    Challenges

    • The pillar of trade, economic and investment cooperation needs greater strengthening and at a faster pace.
    • Absence of FTA: Despite signing a framework agreement for a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 2004, BIMSTEC stands far away from this goal.
    • Lack of legal instruments: The need for expansion of connectivity was stressed by one and all, but when it comes to finalising legal instruments for coastal shipping, road transport and intra-regional energy grid connection, much work remains unfinished.
    • There needs to be mention of the speedy success achieved in deepening cooperation in security matters and management of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR).
    • Focus more on new areas: BIMSTEC should focus more in the future on new areas such as the blue economy, the digital economy, and promotion of exchanges and links among start-ups and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
    •  Step up the personal engagement of political leadership: The personal engagement of the political leadership should be stepped up.
    • The decision taken in Colombo to host a summit every two years is welcome if implemented.
    • Greater visibility:  BIMSTEC needs greater visibility.
    • India’s turn to host the G20 leaders’ summit in 2023 presents a golden opportunity, which can be leveraged optimally. Perhaps all its members should be invited to the G20 summit as the chair’s special guests.
    • Simplify the groupings name: The suggestion to simplify the grouping’s name needs urgent attention.
    • The present name running into 12 words should be changed to four words only — the Bay of Bengal Community (BOBC).
    • It will help the institution immensely. Brevity reflects gravitas.

    Conclusion

    BIMSTEC is no longer a mere initiative or programme. The question to address is whether it is now capable of tackling the challenges facing the region.

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  • India to set up Maritime Rescue Co-ordination Centre (MRCC) in Colombo

    India and Sri Lanka have signed an MoU for the Indian public sector Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) to set up a state of the art Maritime Rescue Co-ordination Centre (MRCC) in Colombo.

    What is MRCC?

    • MRCCs are part of an international network under the UN’s International Maritime Organisation.
    • They aim to monitor the sea lanes with the objective of swift response to emergencies, such as vessels in distress, rescue and evacuation of people, and prevention of and containing environmental disasters such as oil spills.
    • Each country is responsible for its own Search and Rescue Region (SRR).
    • The work of MRCCs is co-ordinated by the Navy or Coast Guard in each country.
    • In India, the Coast Guard is the co-ordinating agency. In Sri Lanka, it is the Navy.
    • The MRCC will be established with a grant of $6 million from India.

    Benefits offered

    • MRCC enhances co-operation on maritime security between the two countries in a part of the Indian Ocean region where the India-China rivalry has taken centre stage over the last decade.
    • This engagement will augment interoperability and seamless maritime actions like carrying out anti-smuggling operations in the Indian Ocean Region.

    Why such a move by India?

    • Sri Lanka’s SRR is a wide swathe of 1,778,062. 24 sq kms of the Indian Ocean, and nearly 200 ships pass through these waters every day.
    • The MRCC agreement appears to be part of India’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for all in the Region) initiative in the Indian Ocean.

    Issues with MRCC

    • The MRCC has been controversial in Sri Lanka who see every development by India suspicious.
    • Sri Lanka’s Defence Ministry issued a clarification on the MRCC, as well as on recent agreements with India for a naval floating dock and Dornier aircraft.
    • The clarification has provided more details about the agreements than have been in the public domain so far.

     

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  • Significance of India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement

    Context

    Prime Ministers of India and Australis will preside virtually over the signing of a bilateral Free Trade Agreement(ECTA) negotiated in torturous detail over the last decade.

    Background

    • Negotiations for a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement began in May 2011.
    • But the negotiations continued in fits and starts, without significant progress or indeed real political direction.
    • In June 2020, as part of the Joint Statement after establishing a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, it was decided to re-engage on a CECA.
    • Consequently, at the 17th India-Australia Joint Ministerial Commission meeting in September 2021, CECA negotiations were re-launched.
    • During virtual summit in 2022, India-Australia fleshed out areas of cooperation ranging from science and technology to climate change and defence to people-to-people ties, and included possibilities of joint surveillance and real-time intelligence sharing.
    • On the eve of the summit, the Morrison government invested over USD 280 million to give a fillip to cooperation with India; to further grow its economic relationship and support jobs and businesses in both countries; as well as to empower the Indian diaspora.

    About INDAUS-ECTA

    • The INDAUS ECTA (India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement), reflects vision of the essential unity of the two countries.
    • The ECTA deal is apparently fully in compliance with WTO rules and Article 24 of GATT.
    • Article 24 of GATT allows countries to grant special treatment to one another by establishing a free-trade association, provided that “(1) duties and other trade restrictions would be eliminated on substantially all the trade among the participants, (2) the elimination of internal barriers occurred within a reasonable length of time….”
    • The ECTA should give a boost to India’s labour-intensive manufacturing sector, with a considerable leg-up to the pharma, textile, gemstone and jewellery sectors.
    •  Indian students in Australia will find an easier pathway to employment, and there will be greater ease of visa for a range of skilled human capital from India in demand in Australia, including chefs and yoga instructors.
    • Most of the farming and dairy sector seems to have been kept away from the present agreement.
    • Australian coal will probably get relatively unfettered access to India.

    Significance of the ECTA for India-Australia relations

    • The ECTA represents a watershed moment in bilateral relations.
    • ECTA is also a significant turning point for India’s foreign policy — both in terms of geo-strategy as well as geo-economics.
    • Partnership with the convergence of interests: India and Australia today represent a partnership with a near complete convergence of interests and values.
    • Shared concerns over China: Two multicultural, federal democracies that share concerns about stability in the Indo Pacific, are apprehensive about Chinese hegemonic designs, and are increasingly coordinating their policies, are natural partners of the future.

    Conclusion

    The ECTA signals that India’s relations with Australia — two central pivots of the Quad — are as strong and resilient as ever.

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  • For deeper, richer India-Mexico ties

    Context

    In 2021, Mexico and India commemorated 71 years of the establishment of diplomatic relations. This article is written by the Foreign Minister of Mexico, who has been on his official visit to India.

    Areas of cooperation between two countries

    • Mexico and India are members of the G-20, which brings together 20 of the largest economies in the world and whose presidency in 2023 will be assumed by India.
    • Non-permanent members of the security council: Both countries are non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council this year.
    • At both forums, India and Mexico will contribute decisively to world peace and security, and will put poverty reduction at the centre of the multilateral debate.
    • The health sector is another cornerstone of our exchanges.
    • Mexico will strengthen its cooperation with India as one of the leading global producers of medicines and will also seek joint pharmaceutical manufacturing.
    • Another key focus area of cooperation will be aerospace.
    • Although it was started less than a decade ago, this has enormous potential for the Mexican Space Agency and for regional initiatives such as the recently established Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency (ALCE) of which Mexico is the founder.
    • In the economic sphere, Mexico’s links with India, the sixth-largest economy in the world and our tenth-largest trading partner, undoubtedly offers a wide range of prospects for Mexico’s productive sectors.

    Conclusion

    Links between India and Mexico have evolved positively in recent years, demonstrating the complementarities between two ancient countries, rich in history and diversity. In this spirit, we will take a firm step towards a tangible alliance to showcase this evolution, which could result in mutual benefits.

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  • Bridging the bay in quest of a stronger BIMSTEC

    Context

    Sri Lanka is gearing up to host the Fifth Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit, now in its silver jubilee year. The summit is being held in virtual/hybrid mode and Sri Lanka is the current BIMSTEC chair.

    Why BIMSTEC matters for India and the region

    • The unique ecology of BIMSTEC is witnessing enriched political support and commitment from India.
    • India has made the Bay of Bengal integral to India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’ policies which can accelerate the process of regional integration.
    • Significance in economic and strategic space: Finalising the BIMSTEC Charter; BIMSTEC Master Plan for Transport Connectivity; BIMSTEC Convention on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters; BIMSTEC Technology Transfer Facility (TTF); cooperation between diplomatic academies/training institutions; and a template of Memorandum of Association for the future establishment of BIMSTEC centres/entities present signs of optimism.
    • BIMSTEC as a centre of Indo-Pacific: With a re-emergence of the idea of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ region, the growing economic, geopolitical and security connections between the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean regions are creating a shared strategic space.
    • The Bay of Bengal is evolving as the centre of the Indo-Pacific region again.
    • The renewed focus has given a new lease of life to the developmental efforts in the region, in particular BIMSTEC.

    Way forward for BIMSTEC

    1] Political support and strong commitment from all member countries

    • With a changed narrative and approach, the Bay of Bengal has the potential to become the epicentre of the Indo-Pacific idea — a place where the strategic interests of the major powers of East and South Asia intersect.
    • Potential of BIMSTEC: There is a greater appreciation of BIMSTEC’s potential due to geographical contiguity, abundant natural and human resources, and rich historical linkages and a cultural heritage for promoting deeper cooperation in the region.
    • Political support and strong commitment from all member countries are crucial in making BIMSTEC a dynamic and effective regional organisation.

    2] Boost connectivity

    • Connectivity is essential to develop a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable Bay of Bengal region.
    • The BIMSTEC Master Plan for Transport Connectivity will provide the necessary boost to connectivity.
    •  Therefore, BIMSTEC needs to address two dimensions of connectivity – one, upgrading and dovetailing national connectivity into a regional road map; and two, development of both hard and soft infrastructures.

    3] Enhance cooperation in different areas

    • There is growing involvement of educational institutions, industries and business chambers through various forums and conclaves which are helping to enhance cooperation in the areas of education, trade and investments, information technology and communication among others.
    • India has implemented its promise to set up a Centre for Bay of Bengal Studies (CBS) at Nalanda University, Bihar for research on art, culture and other subjects related to the Bay of Bengal.

    4] Strengthen the institutional capacity of the BIMSTEC Secretariat

    • The BIMSTEC Secretariat coordinates, monitors and facilitates the implementation of BIMSTEC activities and programmes. The leaders must agree to strengthen the institutional capacity of the BIMSTEC Secretariat.
    • Charter for BIMSTEC: Approval of a charter for BIMSTEC during the summit will further augment its visibility and stature in international fora.

    Conclusion

    The quest for economic growth and the development of the BIMSTEC region can be achieved with single-minded focus and cooperation among the member counties. In this endeavour, India has a key role in accelerating regional cooperation under the BIMSTEC framework and in making it vibrant, stronger and result-oriented.

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  • Govt. steps in to tackle Russian trade hurdles

    The government has convened a multi-Ministerial group to look into how to overcome challenges in trade with Russia, including managing payments for exporters and importers.

    Recent course of updates

    • Many parliamentarians have raised concerns over India’s abstentions at the United Nations and the impact of Indian policy on India’s trade and ties with the US.
    • Developments indicate a possible revival of “rupee-rouble trade” in the wake of economic sanctions against Russian banks and entities by more than 40 US and European allies.
    • India’s position has been “steadfast and consistent”, and India has repeatedly called for the immediate cessation of violence and end to all hostilities.

    Gearing-up for a ‘Shaky’ response

    • FM responded to a question over India’s support on sanctions being “somewhat shaky” amongst Quad partners.
    • Leaders asked whether there would be any “negative impact” on India’s relations with its closest allies.

    India’s clear stance

    • Indian foreign policy decisions are made in Indian national interest and we are guided by our thinking, our views and our interests.
    • So, there is no question of linking the Ukraine situation to issues of trade, the FM clarified.

     

     

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  • Deepening investments in Australia-India strategic, economic, and community ties

    Context

    On March 21, Prime Ministers of India and Australia held their Virtual Summit and took stock of the pace of implementing the Australia-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

    India-Australia relations

    • Since we elevated our relationship in 2020, we have advanced practical actions on cyber and critical technologies, maritime affairs, defence ties, economic and business links and Quadrilateral cooperation.
    • The two Prime Ministers announced a range of tangible and practical initiatives spanning the breadth of our shared economic, strategic, and regional interests.

    Areas of cooperation

    • Energy partnership: Both countries are working on a new and renewable energy partnership, to support the development of technologies such as green hydrogen and ultra-low cost solar.
    • We are also supporting research and investment to unlock Australian critical minerals for Indian advanced manufacturing.
    • We will boost collaboration on innovation, science and entrepreneurship, to scale up ideas that address global challenges.
    • Space sector: We are also increasing investments into our countries’ rapidly growing space sectors.
    • We are establishing the Australia-India Centre of Excellence for Critical and Emerging Technology Policy — and a Consulate-General — in Bengaluru.
    • Australians value highly the Indian diaspora and student contributions to its community — whether economic, social, or cultural.
    • Australia and India are also working to ensure a peaceful and stable region.
    • Both countries are committed to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
    • In our defence relationship, there is an enhancement in information sharing and operational cooperation.
    • Such arrangements also help continue delivering quality humanitarian support to the region, seen recently when India helped Australia’s Pacific family, Tonga and Kiribati.

    Conclusion

    These investments in strategic, economic, and community ties show what we can achieve when two multicultural democracies join in a spirit of trust and understanding.

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  • On South Asia, US must reorient itself

    Context

    On the external front, Russia’s Ukraine war and the Sino-Russian alliance are setting the stage for a reordering of South Asia’s great power relations.

    Opportunity for the US in South Asia

    • If it looks beyond the region’s immediate response to the war in Ukraine, Washington can seize the current opportunity to elevate the US’s salience for the Subcontinent in partnership with India.
    • The Indo-Pacific strategy offers new pathways for the US to limit the traditional economic and military weight of China and Russia in the Subcontinent.

    Three regional trends in South Asia

    1] Decline of Pakistan’s influence

    • In the wake of the missile accident, Islamabad moved to seek international intervention, including from the UN Secretary-General.
    • But there were few takers for this old South Asian formula, except in Beijing.
    • Underlining the peremptory dismissal of Islamabad’s concerns is a deeper trend — the relative decline of Pakistan’s international standing.
    • Since his election, US President Joe Biden has refused to call Imran Khan, who runs a “major non-NATO ally”; high-level visitors from Washington now skip Pakistan during South Asia visits.
    • Chinese and Russian official visitors are among the few to combine trips to Delhi and Islamabad.
    • Islamabad’s decline after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is likely to accelerate amidst Pakistan’s deepening domestic political chaos.
    • With an economy that is smaller than that of Bangladesh and limited prospects for rapid growth in the coming years, Pakistan will find it hard to match its traditional claim for “strategic parity” with India.

    2] Declining interest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia

    •  Just a couple of years ago, China’s commercial march into South Asia seemed unstoppable. Not any longer.
    • Troubles in Pakistan and Sri Lanka: Pakistan and Sri Lanka, which embraced the BRI with great gusto, are South Asia’s two worst-performing economies.
    • The deepening economic crises are compelling the elites of Pakistan and Sri Lanka to focus on non-Chinese financial sources to stabilise their economies.
    • Sri Lanka, which ostentatiously refused to accept $480 million developmental assistance from the US in 2020, is now desperately looking for hard currency support for its sinking economic fortunes.
    •  In Nepal, the dominant communists had made political opposition to US infrastructure assistance of $500 million as a life and death issue for a decade.
    • At the end of last month, Nepal’s parliament ratified the US loan that will facilitate Nepal’s infrastructure development and its economic integration with the Subcontinent.

    3] The growing possibilities for US security cooperation with the Subcontinent

    • During the Cold War, the US military engagement was limited to Pakistan.
    • In the 21st century, there has been a steady expansion of US defence cooperation with India.
    • The current focus on the Indo-Pacific is getting Washington to modernise the defence partnerships with the smaller countries of the region.
    • The Trump Administration discarded the traditional obsession with Pakistan and began to recognise the strategic significance of the smaller South Asian states for its Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • The visit of US Undersecretary of State to Bangladesh over the weekend saw progress towards signing the so-called GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement) that codifies the commitment to protect classified military information.

    Conclusion

    Reversing that must necessarily involve deeper security cooperation with the region and developing alternatives to military dependence on Beijing and Moscow. This is best done in partnership with Delhi.

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  • Sri Lanka’s aggravating Economic Crisis

    Sri Lanka’s economic crisis is aggravating rapidly, putting citizens through enormous hardship.

    Reasons for the Crisis

    The first wave of the pandemic in 2020 offered early and sure signs of distress.

    • In-migration: Thousands of Sri Lankan labourers in West Asian countries were left stranded and returned jobless.
    • Shut-down: Garment factories and tea estates could not function, as infections raged in clusters. Tourism sector to saw a big dip.
    • Domestic job losses: Thousands of youth lost their jobs in cities as establishments abruptly sacked them or shut down.
    • Forex decline: It meant that all key foreign exchange earning sectors, such as exports and remittances, along with tourism, were brutally hit.

    Policy failures of Lankan govt

    • No strategy: The lack of a comprehensive strategy to respond to the crisis then was coupled with certain policy decisions last year.
    • Ill-advised policies: It included the government’s abrupt switch to organic farming —widely deemed “ill-advised”, further aggravated the problem.
    • Food hoarding: The government declared emergency regulations for the distribution of essential food items. It put wide import restrictions to save dollars which in turn led to consequent market irregularities and reported hoarding.
    • Continuous borrowing: Fears of a sovereign default rose by the end of 2021, with the country’s foreign reserves plummeting to $1.6 billion, and deadlines for repaying external loans looming.

    What is happening on the ground?

    • At the macro-economic level, all indicators are worrisome.
    • The Sri Lankan rupee, which authorities floated this month, has fallen to nearly 265 against the U.S. dollar. Consumer Price inflation is at 16.8% and foreign reserves stood at $2.31 billion at the end of February.
    • Sri Lanka must repay foreign debt totalling nearly $7 billion this year and continue importing essentials from its dwindling dollar account.
    • Sri Lanka will incur an import bill of $22 billion this year, resulting in a trade deficit of $10 billion.

    Implications on Public

    • For citizens, this means long waits in queues for fuel, a shortage of cooking gas, contending with prolonged power cuts in many localities and struggles to find medicines for patients.
    • In families of working people, the crisis is translating to cutting down on milk for children, eating fewer meals, or going to bed hungry.

    How is India helping?

    • Acting in the Neighbourhood’s first policy, India stands with Sri Lanka.
    • $1 billion credit line signed for supply of essential commodities. Key element of the package of support extended by India.
    • Beginning January 2022, India has extended assistance totalling $ 2.4 billion — including an $400 million RBI currency swap and a $500 million loan deferment.

    Chinese lure of aid

    • China is considering Sri Lanka’s recent request for further $2.5 billion assistance, in addition to the $2.8 billion Beijing has extended since the outbreak of the pandemic.

    How is India’s assistance being viewed in Sri Lanka?

    • Sacking key infra projects: The leadership has thanked India for the timely assistance, but there is growing scepticism in Sri Lankan media and some sections, over Indian assistance “being tied” to New Delhi inking key infrastructure projects.
    • Deep incursion: They mainly include the strategic Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm project; the National Thermal Power Corporation’s recent agreement with Ceylon Electricity Board to set up a solar power plant in Sampur, with investment from India’s Adani Group.
    • Diplomatic blackmail: SL media accuses New Delhi was resorting to “diplomatic blackmail”. The political opposition has accused the Adani Group of entering Sri Lanka through the “back door”, avoiding competitive bids and due process.

    Options available for SL

    • Sri Lanka is hoping for a Rapid Finance Instrument (RFI) facility as well as a larger Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the IMF to deal with its foreign currency shortages.
    • IMF had assured to help the country with an amount of $300 million to $600 million.

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  • What Quad can learn from NATO’s blunders

    Context

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine offers several lessons to the Quad countries.

    Negligence on part of NATO

    • This article is admittedly written in hindsight, but there is a continuing thread to the western blunders in the approach to dealing with Moscow, particularly concerning Putin.
    • He has had a dramatic rise in the political hierarchy of Moscow, with many of his successes unexplained but for the strong behind-the-scenes backing of the FSB.
    •  Unfortunately, it was ignored in the West, and particularly in Europe, which was busy with civilianising and militarily downgrading NATO.
    • The western leaders were overcome with hubris and dismantled the military intellectual content of NATO headquarters, reducing NATO forces to a rapid reaction force under the political control of a civilian secretary-general.
    • The West, therefore, failed to connect Putin’s invasion of Georgia with his continuing vision to fight the regime change in Ukraine in 2015.

    What can Quad learn?

    • War in Indo-Pacific will be maritime war:  War in the Indo-Pacific will be a maritime war fought in accordance with maritime strategy and space assets.
    • The greatest difference is that peaceful maritime reconnaissance is a legitimate activity with the help of which situational awareness can be built up, enabling the delivery of a crippling conventional first strike in the first stages of a possible conflict.
    • Avoid making Quad a diplomatic grouping: To call the Quad a “diplomatic grouping” is a catastrophic error.
    • Implication of calling Quad a diplomatic grouping: In actual fact, the Quad, is all about maritime domain awareness, underwater domain awareness, and information sharing — all of them purely naval activities, which need continuous communication (that is catered for), a command organisation and a secretariat, neither of which we have because Quad is a diplomatic grouping.
    • The military is trained to think structurally, cast future scenarios, do contingent planning, find alternatives and plan for victory. Diplomats have no such background.
    • Confusing Beijing by calling it a diplomatic grouping will certainly lead to a misunderstanding of the Quad nations’ resolve and possible Chinese adventurism.

    Way forward

    • The Quad needs to be represented by the owners of the maritime assets used to obtain domain awareness and a staff with command communications and a depth of intellectual planning.
    • The great maritime strength of the Quad is its force of Maritime Patrol Aircraft.
    • Japan and the US are particularly rich in those resources.
    • India’s force of P-81s is substantial and with the help of Australia, a maritime domain awareness can be built up that denies the PLA navy the chance to hide in the vastness of the ocean.
    • The Indo-US communication agreement was presumably established to keep the four-nation search group on a common grid.
    • Quad meetings should be headed by naval officers, with diplomatic support.

    Conclusion

    West failed to read Putin’s ambitions and downgraded NATO. The same mistakes should not be repeated in Indo-Pacific by the Quad.

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