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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan should be first step to normalising links

    Context

    The recent partial opening of land borders between India and Pakistan signals a thaw in the troubled relations between the two South Asian neighbours.

    How normalising relations with Pakistan help India?

    • Reduce India’s vulnerability to China: From the Indian standpoint, as a Centre for Policy Research report argues, a continuing freeze in relations with Pakistan will “enhance India’s external vulnerability to other actors, in particular, China”.
    • Impact on bilateral trade: After the Pulwama terror attack, bilateral trade between the two countries plummeted from around $2 billion in 2017-18 to a paltry $280 million in 2020-21 (April to February).

    Steps to normalise relations

    1] Pakistan needs to revoke suspension of trade with India

    • Pakistan needs to revoke the unilateral suspension of trade with India undertaken in August 2019 due to India’s decision to dilute Article 370.
    • Suspension against GATT and SAFTA: The trade suspension by Pakistan is inconsistent with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) agreement — the two international law instruments that regulate trade between India and Pakistan.
    • GATT, as part of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), allows countries to adopt trade-restraining measures on certain grounds such as public health and conservation of exhaustible natural resources (Article XX) and for national security purposes (Article XXI).
    • Neither the WTO nor SAFTA permits a country to suspend trade with another member country on grounds that it disapproves a domestic law enacted by the latter.

    2] Pakistan needs to confer MFN status on India

    • Pakistan needs to reverse its practice of not according the most favoured nation (MFN) status to India.
    • MFN is a principle of non-discrimination in trade given in Article I of GATT.
    • Breach of GATT: Pakistan is in breach of Article I of GATT towards India since the formation of the WTO in 1995.

    3] India should restore Pakistan’s MFN status

    • India should restore Pakistan’s MFN status that it revoked after the Pulwama terror attack by hiking the tariff rates on all Pakistani imports to an unfeasible rate of 200 per cent.
    • Such a move by India will put the ball in Pakistan’s court.
    • If Pakistan fails to reciprocate, India should exert pressure on Islamabad by mounting a legal challenge.

    4] Explore the special trading arrangement under GATT

    • Article XXIV.11 allows India and Pakistan to enter into any special trading arrangement without fully complying with GATT conditions that typically apply to countries signing free trade agreements.
    • This merciful rule that only India and Pakistan enjoy, out of 160 odd WTO members, was incorporated in GATT to enable the two sides to overcome the economic hardships caused by Partition.

    Consider the question “How normalising trade relations will India and Pakistan? Suggest the steps both the countries need to take in this regard.” 

    Conclusion

    India should appreciate that the rise of China, not Pakistan, poses the graver threat. Strengthening bilateral trade can be an important lever towards establishing a working relationship with Pakistan.

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  • Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) with Bangladesh

    Union Home Minister has said that the Northeast States will be linked by road and railway to Bangladesh in a year or two under the historic Land Boundary Agreement (LBA).

    Land Boundary Agreement (LBA)

    • India and Bangladesh have signed the LBA in 2014 to ensure proper connectivity in the region.
    • The operationalization of LBA lays the way for the exchange of 162 enclaves under the control of either country as per the 1974 pact.
    • Under the Agreement, 111 border enclaves will be transferred to Bangladesh in exchange for 51 that will become part of India.
    • The agreement settles an old land boundary dispute which dates back to colonial times as India transfers 111 border enclaves to Bangladesh in exchange for 51 enclaves.
    • It also settles the question of citizenship for over 50,000 people residing under these enclaves.

    Why was such an agreement needed?

    • India and Bangladesh share a 4,096 km land boundary covering West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and Mizoram.
    • This is the largest among the international boundaries that India shares with its neighbors.
    • On this boundary, some 50,000-100,000 people reside in so-called Chitmahals or Indo-Bangladeshi enclaves.
    • There are 102 Indian enclaves inside Bangladesh and 71 Bangladeshi ones inside India.
    • Inside those enclaves are also 28 counter-enclaves and one counter-counter-enclave, called Dahala Khagrabari.

    The inception of the agreement

    • For the first time, a vision to solve this issue had been enshrined in the Indira-Mujib pact of 1972.
    • Accordingly, the India-Bangladesh LBA was signed between the two countries in 1974.
    • However, this agreement need ratification from the parliaments of both countries as it involved the exchange of the territories.
    • While Bangladesh had ratified it as back as 1974 only, it was not ratified by the Indian parliament till 2014.
    • The 119th Amendment Bill 2013 sought to ratify the land boundary agreement between the two countries.

    Key features of the LBA

    • The LBA envisages a transfer of 111 Indian enclaves to Bangladesh in return for 51 enclaves to India.
    • The area transferred to India is less than that transferred by India to Bangladesh. In totality, India incurs a net loss in terms of area occupancy.
    • This remained a major concern of opposition from the north-eastern affected states and west Bengal.
    • Also, most of the area concerned is occupied by the tribals of the North-Eastern states and hence the swapping takes away their land rights leaving them more vulnerable.
    • Current Status of the Constitution (119th Amendment) Bill has been passed by the Parliament of India on 7th May 2015.
    • While India will gain 510 acres of land, ten thousand acres of land will notionally go to Bangladesh.
    • This legislation will redraw India’s boundary with Bangladesh by exchanging enclaves in Assam, West Bengal, Tripura and Meghalaya.

    Implications of the Agreement

    • It will secure the long-stranded boundary and enable to curb the illegal migration, smuggling and criminal acts across the border.
    • It would help those stateless citizens by granting them citizenship from their respective countries. It would help settle the boundary dispute at several points in Meghalaya, Tripura, Assam, and West Bengal.
    • It would improve the access to underdeveloped north-eastern states and would further enhance the developmental works in the region.
    • It would help to increase the connectivity with south-east Asia as part of India’s North-eastern policy.

     

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  • Australia’s controversial Religious Discrimination Bill

    Australian PM Scott Morrison has introduced a contentious piece of anti-discrimination legislation called the “Religious Discrimination Bill” in their parliament.

    What is the Bill about?

    • The bill aims to eliminate discrimination on the ground of religious beliefs or activities.
    • It will ensure Australians are protected from discrimination on the basis of religious belief or activity.
    • The timing of the introduction of this bill, ahead of the federal elections is being seen as an attempt by the Morrison government to target religious voters.

    What does the Religious Discrimination Bill say?

    • The Act makes it unlawful to discriminate against a person on the grounds of religious belief or activity in a range of areas of life including work, education, access to premises, and the provision of goods, services, and accommodation.
    • Discrimination is unlawful if it occurs, for example, because of a religious belief or activity that the person holds or engages in.
    • It is also unlawful if it occurs because of the person’s association with someone else who holds or engages in a religious belief or activity, regardless of whether or not they themselves hold or engage in a religious belief or activity.

    Contentious provisions

    • The bill also allows faith-based organizations such as religious schools to hire and enrol people from particular faiths.
    • The bill states that religious bodies can give preference, “in good faith, to persons who hold or engage in a particular religious belief or activity”.
    • It goes on to say that a religious body does not discriminate against a person under this Act by engaging, in good faith, in conduct that a person of the same religion as the religious body could reasonably consider.

    Because of this clause, the bill has alarmed some LGBTQI groups and some legal experts who say that the bill will discriminate against gay teachers and students.

    Criticisms

    • Some critics of the bill see it as a piece of legislation that is legalizing hate.
    • Some are questioning the government and asking for proof that people are discriminated against on the basis of religion in the country.
    • Further, there are also demands to protect gay students from discrimination.

     

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  • Dynamism in India-U.S. ties

    Context

    While there are regular interactions among officials at various levels and across sectors, as well as people-to-people engagement, there are no formal interactions between Members of Parliament in India and members of the U.S. Congress.

    US Congressional Delegation (CODEL) visit to India

    •  CODEL travels across the world during the periods when Congress takes a break from legislative work.
    • Interactions during these travels are important in shaping relations with foreign countries.
    • In November, a congressional delegation (CODEL) travelled to the Indo-Pacific Command countries, including the Philippines, Taiwan and India.
    • In New Delhi, the six-member delegation interacted with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, and representatives of the Dalai Lama.
    • The members of the delegation noted the “increasing convergence of strategic interests” between India and the U.S. and said they would like to “further enhance cooperation… to promote global peace and stability”.
    •  Mr. Modi appreciated the consistent support and constructive role of the U.S. Congress in deepening the India-U.S. comprehensive global strategic partnership.
    • Enhancing bilateral relationship on critical issues: Mr. Modi and CODEL exchanged views on enhancing the bilateral relationship and strengthening cooperation on contemporary global issues such as terrorism, climate change and reliable chains for critical technologies.
    • Demand for the presidential waiver for India: Two days after returning from his trip to India, CODEL member Senator Tommy Tuberville favoured India getting the presidential waiver under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
    • Significance of CODEL visit: Members of the U.S. Congress play an important role in determining foreign policy, which at times is dictated by the demands of constituents.

    Way forward

    •  Despite the robustness in India-U.S. relations, there is no institutional communication or interaction between MPs in India and members of the U.S. Congress.
    • Establishment of India-US Parliamentary Exchange: The joint statement at the end of the 2+2 Dialogue in 2019 stated: “The Ministers looked forward to the establishment of India-US Parliamentary Exchange to facilitate reciprocal visits by Parliamentarians of the two countries”.
    • Indian Parliamentary Group: India can take it forward through the Indian Parliamentary Group, which acts as a link between the Indian Parliament and the various Parliaments of the world.
    • At present, there are eight Parliamentary Friendship Groups of India’s including Japan, Russia, China and the European Union.
    • The U.S. is absent from this list.

    Conclusion

    The significance of the CODEL visit is not lost in the U.S. as members of the U.S. Congress play an important role in determining foreign policy, which at times is dictated by the demands of constituents.

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  • China’s missile tests could have Sputnik-like effect

    Context

    On October 27 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US, reacted to China testing its nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons system by drawing an analogy with a Sputnik moment.

    How US’s Ballistic Missile Defence led to the recent Sputnik moment

    •  Since the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty in 2002, both Russia and China have been wary of Washington’s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) programme.
    • It undermines strategic stability: Missile defence is inherently destabilising — it undermines “strategic stability”.
    • A robust BMD would compromise the second strike capability of the adversary by neutralising the surviving incoming missiles in case of a near-decapitating first strike
    • Both Russia and China thus view the US BMD as undermining their deterrence and have sought ways to restore their retaliatory strike capability by investing in new technologies such as Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs).
    • HGVs can escape the missile defence systems.
    • HGVs fly at lower altitudes than ballistic missiles, which means they could potentially escape early warning systems, aided by the earth’s curvature.

    Implications of Chinese test

    • It can set off competition: The Chinese tests have the potential to set off an aggressive competition among the nuclear powers to modernise their nuclear arsenals and add new, potentially destabilising capabilities to their arsenal.
    • Global and regional arms race: In the present era of minimal arms control measures, the Chinese hypersonic missile system test will trigger an intense arms race both at the global and regional levels.
    • With the Chinese test, the US may be forced to expand its hypersonic programme and further modernise its missile defence systems.

    What should be the course of action for India

    • China’s nuclear-tipped hypersonic weapon systems, though not particularly India-focused, could nudge New Delhi to adopt two courses of action.
    • Missile program: First, accelerate its hypersonic missiles programme.
    • Develop missile defence system: Second, consider erecting an equally robust missile defence.
    • Chinese advancement in stealth technologies will drive New Delhi to seek similar capabilities but also develop effective countermeasures.
    • This can then set off a regional arms race, a sign that is not particularly encouraging for regional peace.

    Consider the question “Examine the implications of recent hypersonic missile test by China for the region and global arms race control efforts? What should be the course of action for India? “

    Conclusion

    China’s hypersonic missile test may not have come with a Sputnik-like surprise, but it has the potential to set off a post-Sputnik-like arms race that does not augur well for the strategic stability both at the global and regional level.

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    Back2Basics: Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs)

    • A hypersonic missile is a vehicle that achieves a speed five times faster than the speed of sound, crossing Mach 5.
    • These missiles travel at a speed of around 6,115 km per hour, with a combination of technology and manoeuvrability of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

    Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS)

    • A Fractional Orbital Bombardment System is a warhead delivery system that uses a low earth orbit towards its target destination.
    • Just before reaching the target, it deorbits through a retrograde engine burn.

  • A collaborative tech vision for US, UAE, Israel and India

    Context

    Last month’s meeting between the foreign ministers of India, the US, Israel, and the UAE has set foreign policy circles in India abuzz with talks of the potential emergence of another quadrilateral grouping or as analysts term it, a “new Quad”.

    Significance of the new Quad meeting

    • Collaboration in various areas: The grouping discussed technology collaboration along with the joint infrastructure projects in transportation, enhancing political and economic cooperation and maritime security matters.
    • Forum for economic cooperation: They have agreed to set up an international forum for economic cooperation.
    • Collaboration on technology: Amongst all the issues discussed, the technology dimension of this partnership promises a far greater potential for collaboration.
    • The four countries are uniquely placed to shape an innovation-based partnership, which can conjoin the technology hubs of Silicon Valley, Dubai, Tel Aviv, and Bengaluru.
    • Such potential collaboration can benefit from the existing robust cooperation between these countries.
    • Collaboration in fintech: The agreement between Start-Up Nation Central, an Israeli non-profit that connects the tech ecosystem, and Dubai International Financial Centre, the UAE’s financial hub, will create regulatory sandboxes and accelerators for start-ups and provide them with market access opportunities.
    • India and the US have been separately working with the two countries on multiple projects.

    New Quad’s technology cooperation

    • Tech-based collaboration: Given the synergies in the innovation and startup sector, it is logical that the “new Quad” works towards tech-based collaboration.
    • The agenda for the new Quad’s technology cooperation can begin by selecting three technologies — quantum science, blockchain, and 3D printing.
    • Collaboration in quantum technology: Israel and the US, too, have made research on quantum technology a priority by allocating $91 million and $1.2 billion respectively to this sector.
    • India is also fast catching up through its National Mission on Quantum Technologies and Applications and joining hands with countries like France to work on this technology.
    • Collaboration in the blockchain:  in blockchain, India and the UAE can leverage the American and Israeli expertise in cyber and cryptography to craft customised applications for use in banking, fintech and trade financing.
    • Collaboration in 3-D printing: In 3D printing, which promises to transform the manufacturing process radically, Israel has taken the lead in manufacturing about 40 per cent of 3D printers worldwide.
    • India, in contrast, has been slow in getting onto the 3D printing bandwagon. But it can certainly benefit from the expertise of the US, Israel and the UAE.
    • Opportunity for India: From the Indian perspective, such partnerships can leverage Silicon Valley’s venture capital funding, Tel Aviv’s close-knit organic linkages between start-ups, industry, and academia, and UAE’s funding and focus on innovation.
    • To this mix, Bengaluru — and potentially Hyderabad — can add opportunities for scaling up and manufacturing.
    • The startup community in the US, Israel and the UAE have already reached an advanced research and development stage providing an opportunity for India to build expertise and offer the scale to the development and applications of these technologies.

    Way forward

    • Security cooperation: The collaborative and customisation possibilities offered by these technologies and their dual-use nature offers the potential to give a technological edge to the four countries’ militaries.
    •  This, in turn, can add the security cooperation element to the grouping’s agenda.
    • Broaden the base: If the four countries plug their innovation ecosystems in this collaboration to shortlist, fund and develop technologies, it will also help to broaden the base of cooperation for this grouping, rather than restrict it to the government-to-government domain.
    • Government push will be the essential catalyst to unlock this space for cooperation through seed-funding, academic collaborations, industrial partnerships and MoUs.
    • China factor: By collaborating with Russia, and domestic flagship initiatives like “Made in China 2025”, Beijing has pursued emerging technologies and successfully reduced the capability gap with Washington.
    • These developments make it imperative for the US, Israel, UAE, and India to strengthen their newly established cooperation.

    Conclusion

    Each country with its unique advantage in the field of science and technology, innovation and start-ups can make a significant contribution to advance shared technological goals.

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  • India-Maldives Relations in recent times

    The Government of Maldives has said that it “strongly rejects attempts to spread false information” criticizing its ties with India, its “closest ally and trusted neighbor”.

    The India-Out Campaign

    • Maldivian protesters recently demanded the Solih administration to ‘stop selling national assets to foreigners’, implying India.
    • ‘India Out’ campaign in Maldives had started sometime last year as on-ground protests in the Maldives and later widely spread across social media platforms under the same hashtag.
    • It is not related to people-to-people conflict (Indian diaspora) but is discontent on close relationship between Maldivian government & India.

    Causes for the anti-India sentiments

    • Political instability: The anti-India sentiment is nearly a decade old and can be traced back to when Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom became president in 2013. He used anti-India sentiments for his political mobilization and started tilting China.
    • Controversy over helicopter gift: Two Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters (ALF) that were given by India to the Maldives for ocean search-and-rescue operations. Opposition tried to portray this as military presence in the country.
    • Confidential agreements: Most agreements being signed between the Ibrahim Solih government and India are backdoor and has not been publicly discussed in the Maldives Parliament.
    • Alleged interference in domestic politics: India being a big neighbour, there are unsubstantiated perceptions & allegations on Indian Diplomats stationed in Maldives interfering in Domestic affairs.

    India-Maldives Relations: A backgrounder

    • India and Maldives are neighbors sharing a maritime border.
    • Both nations established diplomatic relations after the independence of Maldives from British rule in 1966.
    • India was one of the first nations to recognize Maldives’ independence.
    • Since then, India and Maldives have developed close strategic, military, economic and cultural relations.
    • Maldivians generally regard Indians and India as a friend and trusted neighbor in the field economic, social and political.

    Restoration of ties

    • Ibrahim Mohamed Solih who became President in 2018 has restored Maldives close ties with India.

    Major irritants in ties

    • Political Instability: India’s major concern has been the impact of political instability in the neighborhood on its security and development.
    • Increasing radicalization: In the past decade or so, the number of Maldivians drawn towards terrorist groups like the Islamic State (IS) and Pakistan-based jihadist groups has been increasing.
    • Inclination towards terror: Radicalism in the island nation has increased the possibility of Pakistan based terror groups using remote Maldivian islands as a launch pad for terror attacks against India and Indian interests.
    • Chinese affinity: China’s strategic footprint in India’s neighborhood has increased. The Maldives has emerged as an important ‘pearl’ in China’s “String of Pearls” construct in South Asia.

    Recent gestures by India

    [1] 2014 Malé drinking-water crisis

    • In the wake of a drinking water crisis in Malé in December 2014, following collapse of the island’s only water treatment plant, Maldives urged India for immediate help.
    • India came to rescue by sending its heavy lift transporters like C-17 Globemaster III, Il-76 carrying bottled water.

    [2] 2020 Covid-19 crisis

    • During the COVID-19 crisis of 2020, India extended help to Maldives in the form of financial, material and logistical support.
    • Also, the IAF airlifted 6.2 tonnes of essential medicines and hospital consumables to Maldives, as part of ‘Operation Sanjeevani’.

    [3] Greater Male Connectivity Project

    • India has recently announced the signing of a $500-million infrastructure project for the construction of the Greater Malé Connectivity Project (GMCP).
    • This infrastructure project, the largest-ever by India in the Maldives, involves the construction of a 6.74-km-long bridge and causeway link.

    Why is Maldives significant for India?

    • Increasing maritime cooperation: As maritime economic activity in the Indian Ocean has risen dramatically in recent decades, the geopolitical competition too in the Indian Ocean has intensified.
    • Toll Gate in Indian Ocean: It is situated at the hub of commercial sea-lanes running through the Indian Ocean. More than 97% of India’s international trade by volume and 75% by value passes through the region.
    • Naval cooperation: Maldives is an important partner in India’s role as the net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region.
    • Important SAARC member: Besides, Maldives is a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC).
    • People To People Contact: There is a significant population of Maldivian students in India. They are aided by a liberal visa-free regime extended by India. There is also medical tourism.
    • Major destination for Tourists: Tourism is the mainstay of the Maldivian economy. The country is now a major tourist destination for some Indians and a job destination for others.

    Conclusion

    • There is a significant Indian diaspora in the Maldives. Innumerable Indians work across the hospitality, education, and health-care sectors of the Maldives economy.
    • India must use its Diaspora more extensively for strengthening its relations.

     

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  • Kabul, Kashmir and the return of realpolitik

    Context

    In a rather unfriendly neighbourhood, New Delhi’s attempts at forming a regional consensus to stabilise Afghanistan, albeit wise and timely, will only achieve limited success thanks to the China-Pakistan coalition and its interests at play in and over Afghanistan.

    Role played by China and Pakistan in Afghanistan and its implications for India

    • China’s long-term vision for Afghanistan revolves around the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project of which Afghanistan has been a part since May 2016.
    • The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is also viewed as a key component within the larger Chinese BRI project and Afghanistan could eventually become part of CPEC if and when the Taliban regime stabilises itself in the country.
    • Role of Pakistan in keeping India away from Afghanistan: While Pakistan lobbies the international community to help prevent Afghanistan slide into further turmoil, it is determined to keep India as far away from Kabul as possible.
    • Pakistan has always been deeply suspicious of growing India-Afghanistan relations no matter who was/is in charge in Kabul.
    • Implications for India: It is likely that the more India gets close to the Taliban, the more the Pakistani side will increase the ‘attacks’ in Jammu and Kashmir.
    • By maintaining ties with the Taliban and convening the regional security meeting in New Delhi, India has indicated that this is an acceptable risk.
    • Regional Security Dialogue: The recently-held Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan was an important initiative to help Afghanistan stabilise, the reality is that the two countries that are key to stabilising Afghanistan — China and Pakistan — decided to stay away from it.
    • Scope for other powers: Russia or the Central Asian states have neither the ability nor the desire to pursue a role in Afghanistan autonomous from the larger Chinese or Pakistani designs there.

    The dilemma facing the international community

    • Taliban and Pakistan refer to the U.S.-led coalition as ‘colonisers’ who just vacated the Afghan territory; and in the same breath, they seek assistance from those very ‘former colonisers’.
    • But perhaps what might bother the West the most is that if they stabilise the country, they would still be called former colonisers, and Pakistan and China will benefit out of it geopolitically, making it, in that sense, a thankless job for the West.
    • So the question before the western leaders is how to offer structured incentives to the Taliban, and when.

    The dilemma facing India

    • To engage the Taliban or not: The first one was to decide whether to engage the Taliban or not.
    • The successive governments in Afghanistan, including the current Taliban regime, have sought relations with India which has upset Pakistan.
    • The Taliban want India to engage and help the country stabilise, but Pakistan resents that.
    • Catch-22 situation for India: If the Taliban regime is stabilised in Kabul without India’s assistance to the country, the more it is likely to do Pakistan’s bidding vis-à-vis India.
    • On the other hand, the more India helps the Taliban-led Afghanistan, the more Pakistan will up the ante in Kashmir.
    • This is a catch-22 situation that India finds itself in.
    • And yet, India has little choice but to engage the Taliban.

    How Taliban victory led to change in Pakistan’s Kashmir policy

    • The earlier Pakistani willingness to be conciliatory towards India on Kashmir before and in the run-up to the Taliban takeover of Kabul in August 2021 seems to have disappeared for now.
    • This is at least partly due to the Pakistani triumphalism about the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.
    • Since then, violence data show that the backchannel understanding is withering away with violence in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) spiking along all three indicators albeit gradually.
    • Sentiments from across the border also indicate that the earlier Pakistani stand that it would accept the Indian decision to withdraw the special status to Kashmir in lieu of New Delhi restoring Statehood to Kashmir and allowing political activity in the State has now change.
    • It now demands that India fully reverts to the pre-August 5, 2019 position on Kashmir.

    Way forward

    • No possibility of cooperation with China and Pak: Any possibility of India-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan would be very hard to achieve.
    • Beijing will play along; so will Iran and the Central Asian countries, for the most part.
    • Coordinate with other powers: For India, the options are to coordinate its Afghan policy with Moscow, Washington and the various western capitals while steadfastly engaging the Taliban.

    Consider the question “Return of Taliban in Afghanistan and consequential geopolitical changes in the region are bound to have implications for India-Pakistan relation. Comment.” 

    Conclusion

    India’s advances to court the Taliban and attempts to evolve a regional consensus on Afghanistan might deteriorate India-Pakistan relations and pose challenges for India in Kashmir.

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  • The EU’s role in the Indo-Pacific

    Context

    Speedy development of the Quad comprising Australia, Japan, India and the U.S.; the emergence of AUKUS comprising Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.; and other alignments raise the question: where does Europe stand in relation to this churning?

    Significance of EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy

    • Europe’s Asia connect is old, strong and multi-layered.
    • Since 2018, countries such as France, the Netherlands, Germany and the U.K. announced their specific policies towards the Indo-Pacific.
    • The announcement by the Council of the European Union of its initial policy conclusions in April, followed by the unveiling of the EU strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific on September 16, are notable.
    • Focus on security and development: The policy document also says cooperation will be strengthened in sustainable and inclusive prosperity, green transition, ocean governance, digital governance and partnerships, connectivity, security and defence, and human security.

    Way forward for EU

    • Support France: The EU’s security and defence capabilities are quite limited, as compared to the U.S. and China.
    • To obviate an imbalance in favour of economic links, EU will need to give adequate space and support to France which has sizeable assets and linkages with the Indo-Pacific.
    • Coordination with UK: EU also must forge strategic coordination with the U.K. as the latter prepares to expand its role in Asia as part of its ‘Global Britain’ strategy.
    • Leverage economic power: As a major economic power, the EU has an excellent chance of success in its trade negotiations with Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand; economic partnership agreement with the East African Community; and in forging fisheries agreements and green alliances.
    • To achieve all this and more, EU must increase its readiness to share its financial resources and new technologies with partners.
    • Internally coordinated approach:Many states view China as a great economic opportunity, but others are acutely conscious of the full contours of the China challenge.
    • Russia next door is the more traditional threat. It is increasingly on China’s side.
    • Hence, the EU should find it easy to cooperate with the Quad.
    • AUKUS, endeavours by a part of the western alliance to bolster naval and technological facilities to deal with China should be welcome.

    Way forward for India

    • India’s pivotal position in the region necessitates a closer India-EU partnership.
    • Early conclusion of an ambitious and comprehensive trade agreement and a standalone investment protection agreement will be major steps.
    • Cooperation in Industry 4.0 technologies is desirable.
    • Consolidating and upgrading defence ties with France, Germany and the U.K. should also remain a significant priority.

    Conclusion

    The EU can create a vantage position for itself in the Indo-Pacific by being more candid with itself, more assertive with China, and more cooperative with India.

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  • What the rise of pan-Turkism means for India

    Context

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been playing internationalist card for national benefit. India, which has been worried about Erdogan’s Islamist politics, must now begin to pay attention to another political idea from the Turkish president — promoting pan-Turkism.

    Impact of political ideas on global politics

    • Internationalism based on religion, region or secular ideologies has always run headlong into resistance from sectarianism and nationalism.
    • Yet, these ideas have a profound impact on global politics.
    • Calls for regionalism and internationalism as well as religious and ethnic solidarity often end up as instruments for the pursuit of national interest.

    The rise of pan-Turkism

    • Foundation of OTS: The international symbol of solidarity among peoples of Turkic ethnicity has been the Council of Turkic States, formed in 2009 by Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
    •  At a summit of the Council’s leaders last week in Istanbul, it was announced that the forum has been elevated to an “Organisation of Turkic States”.
    • Hungary, which has a long history of association with Turkic people, and Turkmenistan have observer status.
    •  At least a dozen other countries have apparently shown interest in getting observer status.
    • Implications: There is no escaping the fact that Turkey is determined to rewrite the geopolitics of Eurasia.
    • The rise of pan-Turkism is bound to have important consequences for Afghanistan, the Caucasus, Central Asia and, more broadly, India’s Eurasian neighbourhood.

    Rise of Turkey in Central Asia

    • Soft power initiatives: Over the last three decades, a number of soft power initiatives — in education, culture, and religion — have raised Turkey’s profile in Central Asia and generated new bonds with the region’s elites.
    • Military power: It is in the domains of hard power — commercial and military — that Turkey’s progress has been impressive.
    • Turkey has stunned much of the world with its military power projection into the region.
    • That Kazakhstan, a member of the Russia-led regional security bloc, is moving towards strategic cooperation with Turkey, a member of US-led NATO, points to the thickening pan-Turkic bonds in a rapidly changing regional order.
    • The dominance of economy and trade: Nearly 5,000 Turkish companies work in Central Asia. Turkish annual trade with the region is around $10 billion.
    • This could change as Turkey strengthens connectivity with Central Asia through the Caucasus.
    • For the Central Asian states, living under the shadow of Chinese economic power and Russian military power, Turkey offers a chance for economic diversification and greater strategic autonomy.
    • Connectivity: Turkey has also made impressive progress in building transportation corridors to Central Asia and beyond, to China, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
    • The so-called Lapis Lazuli Corridor now connects Turkey to Afghanistan via Turkmenistan.

    What should be India’s approach towards Turkey?

    • Pan-Turkism is a good reason for India to explore a more purposeful engagement with Turkey.
    • Issues: There is no denying that the current differences between Delhi and Ankara over Kashmir, Pakistan and Afghanistan are real and serious.
    • Need for dialogue: The current political divergence only reinforces the case for a sustained dialogue between the two governments and the strategic communities of the two countries.
    • Lessons for India: Turkey’s own geopolitics offers valuable lessons on how to deal with Ankara.
    • That Turkey is a NATO member has not stopped Erdogan from a strategic liaison with Russian.
    • Purchase of advanced weapons like S-400 missiles from Moscow  does not stop Erdogan from meddling in Russia’s Central Asian backyard.
    • Criticism of China’s repression of Turkic Uighurs in Xinjiang — that was once called “Eastern Turkestan” — goes hand-in-hand with deep economic collaboration with Beijing.
    • What does this policy tell India? One, Erdogan’s enduring enthusiasm for Pakistan does not preclude Turkey from doing business — economic and strategic — with India.
    • Limiting Turkish hegemony: Erdogan’s ambitions have offended many countries in Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Caucasus.
    • Many of them are eager to expand strategic cooperation with India in limiting Turkish hegemony.
    • This opens a range of new opportunities for Indian foreign and security policy in Eurasia.
    • Imperative to engage: Sceptics will point to the fact that Erdogan’s time is running out.
    • That does not, however, alter the Indian imperative to engage with Turkey.

    Consider the question “Turkey’s influence in Eurasian region is expanding. In this context examine the issues that adds friction between India and Turkey and suggest the approach India should adopt in dealing with Turkey.”

    Conclusion

    Independent India has struggled to develop good relations with Turkey over the decades. A hard-headed approach in Delhi today, however, might open new possibilities with Ankara and in Turkey’s Eurasian periphery.

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