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Subject: Climate Change

1. Global Warming and Issues
2. All about Pollution

  • India’ new climate targets are modest but significant

    Why in the News?

    India officially approved its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) for the 2031-2035 period. This comes at a time when global climate leadership is weakening, especially with the US stepping back from clean energy financing and multilateral commitments. This is significant because India, despite being the third-largest emitter, is signalling continuity in climate commitment while many developed countries are retreating.

    What are the exact targets under India’s NDC-3?

    1. Emissions Intensity Reduction: Ensures 47% reduction by 2035 (from 2005 levels); builds on 45% target for 2030 and 36% already achieved by 2020.
    2. Non-Fossil Electricity Capacity: Ensures 60% installed capacity from non-fossil sources by 2035; compared to 40% (Paris target) and ~52% achieved by Feb 2026.
    3. Carbon Sink Expansion: Ensures 3.5-4 billion tonnes CO₂ equivalent sink, up from 2.5-3 billion tonnes target; 2.3 billion tonnes already created by 2021.

    What were India’s early achievements under previous NDCs?

    1. Early Target Achievement: Ensures fulfillment of 33-35% emissions intensity reduction (2005–2030 target) by 2020 itself, achieving a 36% reduction, i.e., 11 years ahead of schedule, demonstrating policy credibility and implementation capacity.
    2. Renewable Energy Transition: Ensures achievement of 40% non-fossil fuel-based installed electricity capacity well before the 2030 deadline (achieved ~2021-22), reflecting accelerated deployment of solar, wind, and other clean energy sources.
    3. Enhanced Ambition: Strengthens climate commitment by revising emissions intensity reduction target from 45% (2030) to 47% (2035), building on early success and improved capacity.
    4. Carbon Sink Creation: Ensures creation of 2.29 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent carbon sink by 2021, progressing steadily towards the earlier target of 2.5-3 billion tonnes, through afforestation and ecosystem restoration initiatives.
    5. Afforestation and Livelihood Linkage: Supports rural livelihoods alongside climate mitigation through forest expansion, integrating environmental sustainability with socio-economic development.
    6. Global Recognition: Secures international validation, with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) ranking India 3rd globally in net gain in forest area and 9th in total forest area, highlighting effectiveness of conservation policies. 

    Why are the targets termed ‘modest’ despite progress?

    1. Marginal Increase: Expands clean energy share from 52% to only 60% by 2035, indicating slow incrementalism.
    2. Under-commitment Strategy: Avoids overpromising due to uncertainty in finance and technology access.
    3. Comparison with Capability: Existing trajectory suggests India could achieve higher targets without formal commitment.
    4. Deliberate Caution: Prevents binding commitments that may constrain future policy flexibility

    How has India overachieved its previous climate commitments?

    1. Early Emissions Reduction: Achieved 36% reduction by 2020, exceeding 33-35% target for 2030.
    2. Renewable Expansion: Rapid increase in solar and wind capacity pushed non-fossil share to ~52% by 2026.
    3. Carbon Sink Creation: Achieved 2.3 billion tonnes CO₂ sink by 2021, nearing earlier commitments.
    4. Policy Continuity: Maintains stable climate trajectory unlike abrupt reversals in other economies.

    What global developments are shaping India’s cautious climate stance?

    1. US Retreat: Weakens global leadership in renewables and climate finance.
    2. Geopolitical Conflicts: Russia-Ukraine war triggered energy insecurity, increasing fossil fuel reliance globally.
    3. Supply Chain Disruptions: Pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global manufacturing and logistics.
    4. Energy Nationalism: Countries prioritizing domestic fossil fuel security over climate commitments.

    Why is climate finance the central constraint in India’s climate ambition?

    1. Finance Gap: Developed countries promised $300 billion/year post-2035, while developing nations demand $1.3 trillion/year.
    2. Implementation Barrier: Limits renewable expansion, storage infrastructure, and grid modernization.
    3. Equity Principle (CBDR): Requires developed nations to bear greater responsibility.
    4. Negotiation Deadlock: Failure at Baku COP29 to finalize adequate financing framework.

    How does India use climate commitments as a strategic negotiation tool?

    1. Conditional Ambition: Links higher targets to availability of finance and technology.
    2. Diplomatic Leverage: Uses moderated commitments to push for fair global burden-sharing.
    3. South Leadership: Positions itself as the voice of developing countries.
    4. Forum Engagement: Raises concerns consistently in international platforms and negotiations.

    What are the risks associated with India’s current climate strategy?

    1. Low Ambition Risk: May not align with the 1.5°C warming pathway.
    2. Fossil Lock-in: Continued reliance due to industrial growth and energy demand.
    3. Climate Vulnerability: India remains highly exposed to climate impacts despite mitigation efforts.
    4. Global Trust Deficit: Weak multilateralism reduces effectiveness of cooperative climate action.

    How is India balancing development and climate responsibility?

    1. Development Priority: Ensures energy access and economic growth remain central.
    2. Gradual Transition: Avoids abrupt fossil fuel phase-out.
    3. Domestic Financing Shift: Increasing reliance on internal resources due to global finance gaps.
    4. Adaptation Focus: Expected emphasis in COP30 (Brazil) on resilience and adaptation strategies. 

    Conclusion

    India’s NDC-3 reflects a calibrated realism shaped by global uncertainty and domestic priorities. Sustained credibility through overachievement strengthens India’s position, but enhanced ambition depends on resolving finance and technology constraints.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2021] Describe the major outcomes of the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). What are the commitments made by India in this conference?

    Linkage: This PYQ tests understanding of global climate governance (COP26) and India’s NDC commitments, core to GS3 environment and international relations. It is directly linked to the article as India’s 2035 NDC targets (NDC-3) build upon and extend the COP26 commitments (Panchamrit), reflecting continuity and calibrated ambition.

  • Death of Winter in Kashmir: Shrinking Snowfall and Himalayan Climate Crisis

    Why in News

    • A Down To Earth report (March 2026) highlighted that Kashmir has recorded seven consecutive winters with below normal snowfall.  

    Key Findings

    Declining Snowfall

    • Seven consecutive winters with below normal snowfall
    • Winter 2025 to 26 precipitation:
      • Actual: 100.6 mm
      • Normal: 284.9 mm
      • Deficit: 65 percent

    February 2026 Rainfall

    • Actual rainfall: 14.2 mm
    • Normal rainfall: 130.4 mm
    • Deficit: 89 percent

    Srinagar Record

    • Only 5.3 mm precipitation
    • One of the lowest since 1901

    Rising Winter Temperatures

    Record Temperatures

    • Srinagar February average maximum:
      • 15.6°C in 2026
      • Previous record: 14.9°C in 2016

    Gulmarg Temperature

    • Early March temperature:
      • 17.2°C
      • 13.7°C above normal

    Why Snowfall Matters in the Himalayas

    Natural Water Storage

    • Snow acts as natural reservoir
    • Gradual melting feeds: Rivers, Streams and Irrigation systems
    [2023] Consider the following statements: 1 Jhelum River passes through Wular Lake. 2 Krishna River directly feeds Kolleru Lake. 3 Meandering of Gandak River formed Kanwar Lake. How many of the statements given above are correct? (a) Only one (b) Only two (c) All three (d) None

  • Cauvery Basin May Face Water Decline Till 2050 

    Why in the News

    A study by IIT Gandhinagar published in Earth’s Future journal warns that the Cauvery river basin may face a decline in water availability until 2050, unlike most other Indian rivers expected to see increased flows due to climate change.

    Key Findings of the Study

    Decline in Cauvery Water

    • 3.5 percent decline in Cauvery water expected
    • Time period: 2026 to 2050
    • Minimal increase expected after 2051

    Historical Decline

    • Cauvery streamflow declined 28 percent between 1951 and 2012
    • Based on data from Kollegal monitoring station

    Contrast with Other Rivers

    • Most major Indian rivers expected to see increase in flow
    • Projected increases
      • Indus: 25 percent increase
      • Ganga: 8 percent increase
      • Krishna: 16 percent increase
    • Cauvery stands as exception
    [2020] Which of the following Protected Areas are located in Cauvery basin? 
    1 Nagarhole National Park 
    2 Papikonda National Park 
    3 Sathyamangalam Tiger Reserve 
    4 Wayanad Wildlife Sanctuary 
    Select the correct answer using the code given below: 
    (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 3 and 4 only (c) 1, 3 and 4 only (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

  • India Targets 60 Percent Non Fossil Power Capacity by 2035

    Why in News

    India updated its Nationally Determined Contributions NDC under the Paris Agreement, setting new climate targets for 2035.

    Key Climate Targets for 2035

    Energy Transition Target

    • 60 percent installed electricity capacity from non fossil sources
    • Non fossil sources include: Solar, Wind, Hydropower, Biomass, and Nuclear

    Emissions Reduction Target

    • Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 47 percent
    • Base year: 2005 levels

    Carbon Sink Target

    • Increase carbon sink to 3.5 to 4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent
    • Through: Forest cover and Tree cover

    Current Status

    Non Fossil Capacity

    • Current installed capacity from non fossil sources: 52 percent
    • Power generation from non fossil sources: About 25 percent

    Emissions Reduction

    • India reduced emissions intensity: 36 percent reduction from 2005 to 2020

    Carbon Sink Progress

    • Carbon sink created from 2005 to 2019: 1.97 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent

    Forest Cover

    • Forest and tree cover in 2021: 24.6 percent of geographical area
    • National target: 33 percent forest cover

    Earlier NDC Targets for 2030

    India committed to:

    • 50 percent non fossil electricity capacity
    • 44 percent emissions intensity reduction
    • Carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes

    Paris Agreement Context

    • Countries must submit updated NDC every five years
    • India required to submit updated targets by 2025
    • Targets apply for 2031 to 2035 period
    [2016] The term ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions’ is sometimes seen in the news in the context of 
    (a) pledges made by the European countries to rehabilitate refugees from the war-affected Middle East  
    (b) plan of action outlined by the countries of the world to combat climate change 
    (c) capital contributed by the member countries in the establishment of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 
    (d) plan of action outlined by the countries of the world regarding Sustainable Development Goals

  • Smog-Eating Photocatalytic Coating

    Why in the News

    • The Delhi Government and IIT Madras are collaborating to study smog eating photocatalytic coatings on roads to reduce urban air pollution.

    What is Smog-Eating Photocatalytic Coating

    • A special coating applied on roads and buildings
    • Designed to neutralize harmful pollutants in the air
    • Targets:
      • Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂)
      • Volatile hydrocarbons
      • Other toxic gases

    Compound Used

    Titanium Dioxide (TiO₂)

    • Most commonly used material
    • Advantages:
      • Low cost
      • Chemically stable
      • Durable
      • Compatible with construction materials

    Working Mechanism

    Photocatalysis Process

    • Sunlight activates Titanium dioxide
    • Chemical reactions break down pollutants
    • Converts harmful gases into:
      • Less toxic substances
      • Harmless compounds

    Result:

    • Cleaner air
    • Reduced smog levels
    • Environmental cleaning

    Applications

    • Roads, Buildings, Pavements, Flyovers, and Public infrastructure

    Benefits

    • Reduces urban air pollution
    • Passive pollution control
    • Low maintenance
    • Cost effective
    • Sustainable technology
    [2013] Photochemical smog is a resultant of the reaction among: (a) NO 2 ​ , O 3 ​ and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) in the presence of sunlight (b) CO 2 ​ , O 2 ​ , and peroxyacetyl nitrate in the presence of sunlight (c) CO, CO 2 ​ , and NO 2 ​ at low temperature (d) high concentration of NO 2 ​ , O 3 ​ and CO in the evening

  • Erratic Weather in March 2026 

    Why in the News

    • March witnessed unusual weather patterns: early heatwaves followed by thunderstorms, hailstorms, and rain across India.
    • Special Phenomena: Nor’westers (Kalbaisakhi) in eastern India: Sudden intense storms with thunder, lightning, and hail

    What Happened

    • Early March: Heatwaves in North and West India
    • Mid to late March: Sudden shift to:
      • Thunderstorms
      • Hailstorms
      • Intense rainfall
    • Impact: Significant temperature drop

    Main Reasons

    1. Western Disturbances (WDs)

    • Origin: Mediterranean region (via West Asia)
    • Role: Bring rain and snowfall in non-monsoon months
    • Key factor: Two intense Western Disturbances (March 13 & 18) triggered widespread weather changes

    2. Cyclonic Circulation

    • Persistent low-pressure circulation in lower atmosphere
    • Helped intensify: Cloud formation and Rainfall activity

    3. Moisture Influx

    • Winds from: Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
    • Result: High moisture availability

    4. Wind Convergence

    • Interaction of: Warm moist winds and cold winds
    • Outcome: Severe convection leading to thunderstorms and hail

    5. Seasonal Transition

    • March marks winter to summer transition
    • Rising temperatures plus moisture create ideal conditions for: Thunderstorms and Hailstorms. 

    Geographical Spread

    • Affected regions:
      • Western Himalayas
      • Northeast India
      • Central and Northwest India
      • Parts of South India
    [2015] Consider the following statements: 
    1. The winds which blow between 30° N and 60° S latitudes throughout the year are known as westerlies. 
    2. The moist air masses that cause winter rains in North-Western region of India are part of westerlies. 
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct? 
    (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2

  • Rising CO₂ Threatens Mangrove Fish Nurseries 

    Why in the News

    • A study in AGU Advances highlights declining oxygen levels in mangrove waters due to rising CO₂.

    Key Concept: Hypercapnic Hypoxia

    • Condition of: High CO₂ + Low dissolved oxygen
    • Occurs in: Mangrove estuaries (especially low tide, tropical regions)

    Major Findings

    • By 2100:
      • Oxygen ↓ 5–35%
      • CO₂ ↑ 8–60%
    • Events will:
      • Become 15× more frequent
      • Last longer (12–24 hours at 78% sites)

    Impact on Ecosystem

    1. Fish Nurseries at Risk

    • Reduced safe time for fish entry
    • Decline in juvenile fish survival

    2. Biodiversity Loss

    • Shift away from: Large reef-associated fish
    • Affects commercially important species

    3. Fisheries Impact

    • Mangroves: Support ~20,000 extra fish/ha/year
    • ~4 million fishers depend globally
    [2012] The acidification of oceans is increasing. Why is this phenomenon a cause of concern? The growth and survival of calcareous phytoplankton will be adversely affected. The growth and survival of coral reefs will be adversely affected. The survival of some animals that have phytoplanktonic larvae will be adversely affected. The cloud seeding and formation of clouds will be adversely affected. Select the correct answer using the code given below: (a) 1, 2 and 3 only (b) 2 only (c) 1 and 3 only (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

  • [18th March 2026] The Hindu OpED: A bit of blur over India’s new carbon credit plan

    PYQ Relevance[UPSC 2025] What is Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS)? What is the potential role of CCUS in tackling climate change?Linkage: The PYQ covers climate change mitigation and environmental technology (GS 3), especially emission reduction strategies like CCUS. The article applies this through India’s CCUS-focused carbon credit policy, highlighting tension with agriculture-based carbon markets.

    Mentor’s Comment

    India’s Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) initiative aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet 2070 net-zero targets, focusing on high-emitting industrial sectors. The Union Budget 2026-27 announced a ₹20,000 crore scheme to scale up CCUS deployment, specifically targeting power, steel, cement, refineries, and chemical industries. The Budget 2026 announcement highlights the tension between industrial decarbonisation via CCUS and nature-based carbon markets involving agriculture. This raises issues of policy clarity, sectoral prioritisation, and climate governance design.

    What is the core objective of India’s carbon credit plan?

    1. Industrial Decarbonisation Focus: Targets sectors like power, steel, cement, refineries, and chemicals where emissions are concentrated and difficult to eliminate.
    2. CCUS Deployment: Ensures capture of CO₂ from industrial flue gases and its utilization or storage underground.
    3. Technology-led Transition: Supports R&D roadmap released by Department of Science and Technology (Dec 2025).
    4. Budgetary Commitment: ₹20,000 crore over five years for large-scale CCUS deployment.

    Why is agriculture excluded from CCUS strategy?

    1. Emission Characteristics: Agricultural emissions (methane, nitrous oxide) are diffuse and biologically mediated.
    2. Technological Limitation: CCUS is suited for point-source emissions, not dispersed sources like farms.
    3. Policy Segregation: Clear distinction between CCUS (industrial) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) via soil, biochar, agroforestry.
    4. Role of Agriculture: Positioned under carbon sequestration pathways, not industrial capture.

    What is causing confusion around ‘farmer carbon credits’?

    1. Terminology Overlap: Use of “carbon credit programme” creates perception of inclusivity across sectors.
    2. Parallel Narratives: Media and discourse suggest farmers can directly earn credits under Budget allocation.
    3. Existing Voluntary Markets: Agriculture and forestry projects already generate credits for domestic and global buyers.
    4. Policy Communication Gap: Lack of clear distinction between regulated compliance markets and voluntary carbon markets.

    What are the implications of prioritising CCUS over agriculture?

    1. Industrial Competitiveness: Supports decarbonisation of sectors contributing ~25% of India’s emissions.
    2. Net-Zero Alignment: Essential for achieving India’s climate commitments.
    3. Missed Rural Opportunity: Delays monetisation of agriculture’s carbon sequestration potential.
    4. Fiscal Prioritisation: Directs public funds toward capital-intensive technologies instead of nature-based solutions.

    Can agriculture-based carbon markets emerge as a parallel opportunity?

    1. Soil Carbon Sequestration: Enhances carbon storage through regenerative practices.
    2. Agroforestry Potential: Integrates trees into farming systems to generate carbon credits.
    3. Private Sector Initiatives: Pilot programmes compensate farmers for sustainable practices.
    4. Policy Requirement: Needs separate funding, institutional frameworks, and certification mechanisms.

    What policy approach is required to resolve the ambiguity?

    1. Clear Sectoral Demarcation: Separates ‘smokestack’ (industrial) and ‘soil’ (agriculture) carbon pathways.
    2. Dedicated Agricultural Policy: Establishes structured carbon farming programme with incentives.
    3. Market Development: Creates trusted domestic carbon market for agriculture credits.
    4. Communication Clarity: Ensures alignment between policy design and public narrative.

    Conclusion

    India’s carbon credit framework reflects a dual transition challenge: industrial decarbonisation through CCUS and agricultural transformation through carbon sequestration. Policy clarity, sector-specific instruments, and institutional coherence are essential to avoid misaligned expectations and unlock full climate and economic potential.

  • India Submits First National Report on Nagoya Protocol (ABS)

    Why in the News?

    India has submitted its First National Report (NR1) on the implementation of the Nagoya Protocol (ABS) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on 27 February 2026, fulfilling obligations under Article 29.

    Key Highlights of the Report

    1. Reporting Period

    • Covers 1 November 2017 to 31 December 2025
    • Earlier Interim Report submitted in 2017

    2. Legal & Institutional Framework

    • Based on: Biological Diversity Act, 2002, Biological Diversity Rules, 2024 and ABS Regulations, 2025. 
    • Three-tier structure:
      • National Biodiversity Authority (NBA)
      • State Biodiversity Boards (SBBs) / UT Biodiversity Councils
      • Biodiversity Management Committees (BMCs)
    • 2,76,653 BMCs established → strong grassroots participation

    3. Access and Benefit Sharing (ABS) Performance

    • Total approvals (2017–2025): 12,830
      • NBA: 5,913 approvals (research, IPR, commercial use, etc.)
      • SBBs/UTBCs: 6,917 approvals (commercial utilization)

    4. Global Leadership in Compliance

    • 3,556 IRCCs (Internationally Recognised Certificates of Compliance) published
    • Accounts for over 60% of global total
    • Shows leadership in transparency under Nagoya Protocol

    5. Financial Benefits Generated

    • ₹216.31 crore mobilised through NBA approvals
      • ₹139.69 crore disbursed to: Local communities, Farmers, and Traditional knowledge holders
    • ₹51.96 crore generated via SBBs/UTBCs

    6. Non-Monetary Benefits

    • 395 approvals included: Capacity building, Technology transfer, Training and Collaborative research. 

    7. Monitoring of Foreign Biological Resources

    • 41 declarations received for use of foreign bioresources
    • Ensures compliance with international ABS norms

    8. Capacity Building & Awareness

    • 2,56,393 individuals trained
    • Through: 3,724 workshops and 600+ capacity-building initiatives

    9. Strategic Contribution

    • Supports Target 13 of India’s NBSAP (National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan)
    • Strengthens: Biodiversity conservation, Livelihood security, and Community participation
    [2025] Consider the following statements: 
    1. In India, the Biodiversity Management Committees are key to the realisation of the objectives of the Nagoya Protocol. 
    2. The Biodiversity Management Committees have important functions in determining access and benefit sharing, including the power to levy collection fees on the access of biological resources within its jurisdiction. 
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct? 
    (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2

  • ‘Super El Niño’ Alert: Risk of Record Global Heat

    Why in the News

    Forecasters, including NOAA Climate Prediction Center, warn of a possible El Niño in 2026, with chances it could intensify into a “super El Niño”, potentially pushing global temperatures to new highs.

    What is El Niño?

    • A warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
    • Occurs when Pacific Ocean surface waters become warmer than normal

    What is a “Super El Niño”?

    • When sea surface temperature rises ≥ 2°C above average
    • Much stronger than normal El Niño
    • Rare events: Last major one: 2015–16

    Current Situation

    • Present phase: La Niña (cool phase) is ending
    • Forecast: ~62% chance of El Niño by mid-2026 and ~15% chance of super El Niño

    How El Niño Works

    • Warm water shifts toward eastern Pacific
    • Weakens trade winds
    • Alters global weather systems
    [2011] La Niña is suspected to have caused recent floods in Australia. How is La Niña different from El Niño? 
    1. La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperature in the equatorial Indian Ocean whereas El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 
    2. El Niño has an adverse effect on the southwest monsoon of India, but La Niña has no effect on monsoon climate. 
    Select the correct answer: 
    (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2