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Subject: International Relations

  • Israel vs. Palestine Row over Gaza

    India has termed Gaza violence as grave concern and called for immediate resumption of talk between Israel and Palestine.

    Here we explain the roots of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the two-state solution and why it has not materialized.

    What is the Israel-Palestine conflict?

    • The land to which Jews and Palestinians lay claim to was under the Ottoman Empire and then the British Empire in early 20th century.
    • Palestinian people —the Arab people from the same area— want to have a state by the name of Palestine in that area.
    • The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is over who gets what land and how it’s controlled.
    • Jews fleeing the persecution in Europe at the time wanted to establish a Jewish state on the land which they believe to be their ancient homeland.
    • The Arab at the time resisted, saying the land was theirs.
    • The land at the time was called Palestine.
    • In 1917’s Balfour Declaration, the United Kingdom declared its support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine.
    • Arabs resisted it which led to violence.

    When did the migration begin?

    • Some 75,000 Jews migrated to Palestine from1922-26 and some 60,000 Jews emigrated in 1935, according to a history published by the University of Central Arkansas.
    • It adds that Palestinian Arabs demanded the UK to halt Jewish emigration, but the UK ignored such calls. There were violent incidents, leading to deaths of some 500 people.
    • In 1923, the British Mandate for Palestine came into effect.
    • The document was issued by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations (UN).
    • The Mandate gave the UK the responsibility for creating a Jewish national homeland in the region.
    • In 1936, the UK government, recommended the partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.

    Issue at the UN

    • In 1947, Britain referred the issue of Palestine to the UN, which came up with a partition plan.
    • It put up two proposals. One, two separate states joined economically —the majority proposal— and, two, a single bi-national state made up of autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas, the minority proposal.
    • The Jewish community approved of the first of these proposals, while the Arabs opposed them both.

    Israel declares independence

    • In May 1948, Israel declared its independence.
    • The Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt invaded the newly-declared country immediately.
    • When the war ended, Israel gained some territory formerly granted to Palestinian Arabs under the UN resolution in 1947.
    • It also retained control over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank respectively.

    The two-state solution and why it hasn’t worked out

    • The two-state solution refers to an arrangement where Israeli and Palestinian states co-exist in the region.
    • However, such a solution has not materialised over the decades.
    • As outlined in the beginning and in the briefly explained roots of the conflict, the two-state solution means two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians.

    There are four main reasons why the two-state solution has not materialized by now:

    [1] Borders

    • There is no consensus as to how to draw the lines dividing the two proposed states.
    • Many people say borders should have pre-1967 lines.
    • In 1967 Israeli-Arab war, Israel captured Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem, and Golan Heights.
    • Israel is not willing to give up these gains. It returned Sinai to Egypt in 1982.
    • Moreover, there is the question of Israeli settlements in West Bank.

    [2] Question of Jerusalem

    • Both Israel and Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital and call it central to their religion and culture.
    • The two-state solution typically calls for dividing it into an Israeli West and a Palestinian East, but it is not easy to draw the line — Jewish, Muslim and Christian holy sites are on top of one another.
    • Israel has declared Jerusalem its ‘undivided capital’, effectively annexing its eastern half, and has built up construction that entrenches Israeli control of the city.

    [3] Refugees

    • A large number of Palestinians had to flee in the 1948 War.
    • They and their descendants —numbering at 5 million— demand a right to return. Israel rejects this.
    • The return of these people would end the demographic majority of Jews, ending the idea of Israel that’s both democratic and Jewish.

    [4] Security

    • Security concerns are also central to Israel as it’s constantly harassed by terrorist group Hamas that controls Gaza Strip.
    • Hamas and other Islamist group in Gaza launch rockets into Israel time-to-time.
    • Moreover, there are also concerns of Palestinians’ attack inside Israel.
    • This year in March-April, at least 18 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks inside Israel.
    • A total of 27 Palestinians were also killed in the period, including those who carried out attacks inside Israel. Palestinians too have their concerns.
    • For Palestinians, security means an end to foreign military occupation.

    Why the two-state solution is needed?

    • Besides fulfilling the basic desire of both Jews and Arabs of their own states, supporters of two-state solutions say it must be backed because its alternatives are simply not workable.
    • A single state merging Israel, West Bank, and Gaza would reduce Jews to a minority.
    • At the same time, in such a state, Jews would be a significant minority which would mean that the Arab majority would be miffed.

    Moral reasoning too for a two-state solution

    • It says that the aspirations of one person should not be overridden for others’ aspirations.
    • It’s a struggle for collective rights between two distinct groups of people.
    • Jews are the global micro-minority with a very small piece of land to exist.
    • Depriving Israeli Jews of a Jewish state or Palestinians of a Palestinian state would represent a subordination of one group’s aspirations to someone else’s vision.

    Way forward

    • India opines that long-term peace in Israel and Palestine can be achieved only through a negotiated two-State solution leading.
    • This can be done with the establishment of a sovereign, independent and viable State of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders.

     

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  • India Switzerland Relations

    Context

    Two countries will commemorate next year the 75th anniversary of the signing in New Delhi of the 1948 Treaty of Friendship.

    Cooperation between two countries in various area

    • Switzerland and Indian partners are collaborating on digital transformation, sustainability, health, life sciences, medtech, infrastructure, cleantech, fintech, blockchain, AI and robotics.
    • Innovation and investment continue to be the primary drivers of our bilateral relations.
    • With over 330 Swiss companies, Switzerland is the 12th largest investor in India.
    • About 100 Swiss companies manufacture locally and support the Make in India initiative.
    • Trade talks between Switzerland (European Free Trade Association EFTA) and India are high on the priority list.
    • Digitalisation is emerging as a relatively new area of engagement with enormous potential for Switzerland and India.
    • Switzerland plays a leading role in researching new technologies and is home to many innovative and world-leading technology companies.
    • As one of the most innovative countries of the world, Switzerland seeks to engage with India, the leader of the Industry 4.0 revolution, in areas ranging from digital governance to digital self-determination.

    Switzerland in UNSC as non-permanent member

    • Switzerland was elected to the United Nations Security Council as a non-permanent member for the first time this year in June.
    • Convergence in priorities at Security Council: There are convergences in Swiss and Indian priorities at the UN Security Council.
    • Switzerland, like India, is committed to a robust and effective multilateral system.
    • In the Security Council, Switzerland will do everything possible to ensure sustainable peace.
    • Many years ago, from 1971 to 1976, Switzerland represented India’s interests in Pakistan and vice versa.
    • In the Security Council, Switzerland will focus on the protection of civilians and on international humanitarian law.
    • Impact of climate change on security: Switzerland will also address climate change and its impact on security.
    • Reforms of Security Council: Switzerland desires effective UN institutions.
    • India has been advocating for a reform of the Security Council.
    • Switzerland’s fourth priority in 2023 and 2024 will be to contribute to improving the United Nations Security Council’s effectiveness towards greater transparency and accountability.

    Conclusion

    Two countries can together contribute to global good. This engagement is a result of not only our shared priorities, but also our shared democratic values and foreign policy independence.

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  • MEA lashes OIC for remark on Kashmir

    Context: India has said the statement by the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation on Jammu and Kashmir “reeked of bigotry”.

    What did the MEA say?

    • The Ministry of External Affairs said the Saudi Arabia -based OIC continued to issue statements on J&K at the behest of a serial violator of human rights and notorious promoter of terrorism, indicating Pakistan.

    What is OIC?

    • The OIC — formerly Organisation of the Islamic Conference — is the world’s second-largest inter-governmental organization after the UN, with a membership of 57 states.
    • The OIC’s stated objective is “to safeguard and protect the interests of the Muslim world in the spirit of promoting international peace and harmony among various people of the world”.
    • OIC has reserved membership for Muslim-majority countries. Russia, Thailand, and a couple of other small countries have Observer status.

    India and OIC

    • At the 45th session of the Foreign Ministers’ Summit in 2018, Bangladesh suggested that India, where more than 10% of the world’s Muslims live, should be given Observer status.
    • In 1969, India was dis-invited from the Conference of Islamic Countries in Rabat, Morocco at Pakistan’s behest.
    • Then Agriculture Minister Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed was dis-invited upon arrival in Morocco after Pakistan President Yahya Khan lobbied against Indian participation.

    Recent developments

    • In 2019, India made its maiden appearance at the OIC Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Abu Dhabi, as a “guest of honor”.
    • This first-time invitation was seen as a diplomatic victory for New Delhi, especially at a time of heightened tensions with Pakistan following the Pulwama attack.
    • Pakistan had opposed the invitation to Swaraj and it boycotted the plenary after the UAE turned down its demand to rescind the invitation.

    What is the OIC’s stand on Kashmir?

    • It has been generally supportive of Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir and has issued statements criticizing India.
    • Last year, after India revoked Article 370 in Kashmir, Pakistan lobbied with the OIC for their condemnation of the move.
    • To Pakistan’s surprise, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — both top leaders among the Muslim countries — issued nuanced statements, and were not as harshly critical of New Delhi as Islamabad had hoped.
    • Since then, Islamabad has tried to rouse sentiments among the Islamic countries, but only a handful of them — Turkey and Malaysia — publicly criticized India.

    How has India been responding?

    • India has consistently underlined that J&K is an integral part of India and is a matter strictly internal to India.
    • The strength with which India has made this assertion has varied slightly at times, but never the core message.
    • It has maintained its “consistent and well-known” stand that the OIC had no locus standi.
    • This time, India went a step ahead and said the grouping continues to allow itself to be used by a certain country “which has a record on religious tolerance, radicalism, and persecution of minorities”.

    OIC members and India

    • Individually, India has good relations with almost all member nations. Ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, especially, have looked up significantly in recent years.
    • The OIC includes two of India’s close neighbors, Bangladesh and Maldives.
    • Indian diplomats say both countries privately admit they do not want to complicate their bilateral ties with India on Kashmir but play along with OIC.

    Way ahead

    • India now sees the duality of the OIC as untenable, since many of these countries have good bilateral ties and convey to India to ignore OIC statements.
    • But these countries sign off on the joint statements which are largely drafted by Pakistan.
    • India feels it important to challenge the double-speak since Pakistan’s campaign and currency on the Kashmir issue has hardly any takers in the international community.

     

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  • US-Iran Nuclear talks restart with EU mediation

    Negotiators kicked off a fresh round of talks over Iran’s nuclear program in Vienna, seeking to salvage the agreement on Tehran’s atomic ambitions.

    Do you know how the enmity between Iran and the US came into reality?  We hope you have watched the Argo (2012) movie for sure!

    Context

    • After a gap of five months, Iran, Russia, China and the European countries resumed negotiations in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
    • The 2015 JCPOA agreement sought to cut Iran off a possible path to a nuclear bomb in return for lifting of economic sanctions.

    What is JCPOA?

    • The Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the JCPOA is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in July 2015.
    • Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief.

    Expected outcomes of the deal

    • Curb on the nuclear program: Proponents of the deal said that it would help prevent a revival of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
    • Increasing regional engagement: It would thereby reduce the prospects for conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.

    Background of the JCPOA

    • Iran had previously agreed to forgo the development of nuclear weapons as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, which has been in force since 1970.
    • However, after the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979, Iranian leaders secretly pursued this technology.
    • In 2007, U.S. intelligence analysts concluded that Iran halted its work on nuclear weapons in 2003 but continued to acquire nuclear technology and expertise.
    • Prior to the JCPOA, the P5+1 had been negotiating with Iran for years, offering its government various incentives to halt uranium enrichment.

    Issues with the deal

    (1) US withdrawal

    • The deal has been in jeopardy since President Donald Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018.
    • In retaliation for the US, Iran resumed some of its nuclear activities.

    (2) Iran’s insistence over sanctions removal

    • In 2021, President Joe Biden said the US will return to the deal if Iran comes back into compliance, though Iran’s leaders have insisted that Washington lift sanctions first.
    • Iran now has indicated that he will take a harder line than his predecessor in nuclear negotiations.

    Who are the participants?

    • The JCPOA, which went into effect in January 2016, imposes restrictions on Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program.
    • At the heart of negotiations with Iran were the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Germany—collectively known as the P5+1.
    • The European Union also took part. Israel explicitly opposed the agreement, calling it too lenient.
    • Some Middle Eastern powers, such as Saudi Arabia, said they should have been consulted or included in the talks because they would be most affected by a nuclear-armed Iran.

    What did Iran agree to?

    • Nuclear restrictions: Iran agreed not to produce either the highly enriched uranium or the plutonium that could be used in a nuclear weapon.
    • Monitoring and verification:  Iran agreed to eventually implement a protocol that would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog.

    What did the other signatories agree to?

    • Sanctions relief: The EU, United Nations, and United States all committed to lifting their nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. However, many other U.S. sanctions on Iran, some dating back to the 1979 hostage crisis, remained in effect.
    • Weapons embargo: The parties agreed to lift an existing UN ban on Iran’s transfer of conventional weapons and ballistic missiles after five years if the IAEA certifies that Iran is only engaged in civilian nuclear activity.

    How has the deal affected Iran’s economy?

    • Prior to the JCPOA, Iran’s economy suffered years of recession, currency depreciation, and inflation, largely because of sanctions on its energy sector.
    • With the sanctions lifted, inflation slowed, exchange rates stabilized, and exports—especially of oil, agricultural goods, and luxury items­—skyrocketed as Iran regained trading partners, particularly in the EU.
    • After the JCPOA took effect, Iran began exporting more than 2.1 million barrels per day (approaching pre-2012 levels, when the oil sanctions were originally put in place).

     

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  • India and Minerals Security Partnership (MSP)

    India is aspiring to join the 11-member US-led partnership for critical mineral supply chains called ‘Minerals Security Partnership (MSP)’.

    Why in news?

    • A group of western nations are cooperating to develop alternatives to China to ensure key industrial supplies.
    • This is a part of a global ‘China-plus-one’ strategy adopted post pandemic that caused massive supply-chain disruptions.
    • India is not part of this arrangement but New Delhi is working through diplomatic channels to fetch an entry.

    What is the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP)?

    • The US and 10 partners — Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the European Commission — have come together to form the MSP.
    • The new grouping is aimed at catalysing investment from governments and the private sector to develop strategic opportunities.
    • Demand for critical minerals, which are essential for clean energy and other technologies, is projected to expand significantly in the coming decades.
    • The MSP will help catalyse investment from governments and the private sector for strategic opportunities — across the full value chain — that adhere to the highest environmental, social, and governance standards.

    Focus of MSP

    • The new grouping could focus on the supply chains of minerals such as Cobalt, Nickel, Lithium, and also the 17 ‘rare earth’ minerals.
    • The alliance is seen as primarily focused on evolving an alternative to China, which has created processing infrastructure in rare earth minerals and has acquired mines in Africa for elements such as Cobalt.

    What are Rare Earth Elements?

    • The 17 rare earth elements (REE) include the 15 Lanthanides (atomic numbers 57 — which is Lanthanum — to 71 in the periodic table) plus Scandium (atomic number 21) and Yttrium (39).
    • REEs are classified as light RE elements (LREE) and heavy RE elements (HREE).
    • Some REEs are available in India — such as Lanthanum, Cerium, Neodymium, Praseodymium and Samarium, etc.
    • Others such as Dysprosium, Terbium, and Europium, which are classified as HREEs, are not available in Indian deposits in extractable quantities.

    Why are these minerals important?

    • Minerals like Cobalt, Nickel, and Lithium are required for batteries used in electric vehicles.
    • REEs are an essential — although often tiny — component of more than 200 consumer products, including mobile phones, computer hard drives, electric and hybrid vehicles, semiconductors etc.

    Where does India stand?

    • There is a dependence on countries such as China for HREEs, which is one of the leading producers of REEs, with an estimated 70 per cent share of the global production.
    • India is seen as a late mover in attempts to enter the lithium value chain, coming at a time when EVs are predicted to be a sector ripe for disruption.
    • The year 2022 is likely to be an inflection point for battery technology — with several potential improvements to the Li-ion technology.
    • India has an ambitious plan to convert a large percentage of its transport to electric, and would require these minerals.
    • According to the plan, 80 per cent of the country’s two- and three-wheeler fleet, 40 per cent of buses, and 30 to 70 per cent of cars will be EVs by 2030.

    What is India’s major concern at this moment?

    • If India is not able to explore and produce these minerals, it will have to depend on a handful of countries, including China, to power its energy transition plans to electric vehicles.
    • That will be similar to our dependence on a few countries for oil.

    Why was India excluded?

    • Industry watchers say that the reason India would not have found a place in the MSP grouping is that the country does not bring any expertise to the table.
    • In the group, countries like Australia and Canada have reserves and also the technology to extract them, and countries like Japan have the technology to process REEs.

     

     

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  • UNSC

    In a first, India will host diplomats and officials from all 15 countries of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), including China, Russia and the US, for a special meeting on terrorism, in Delhi and Mumbai in October.

    Key determinants of the meet

    The special meeting will specifically focus on three significant areas:

    1. Internet and social media
    2. Terrorism financing
    3. Unmanned aerial systems

    What is Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC)?

    • The CTC is a subsidiary body of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
    • The 15-member CTC was established at the same time to monitor the implementation of the resolution.
    • In the wake of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the US, the UNSC unanimously adopted resolution 1373.
    • This among its provisions obliges all States
    1. To criminalize assistance for terrorist activities,
    2. Deny financial support and safe haven to terrorists and
    3. Share information about groups planning terrorist attacks

    Its executive body

    • Seeking to revitalize the Committee’s work, in 2004 the Security Council adopted Resolution 1535.
    • It created the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) to provide the CTC with expert advice on all areas covered by resolution 1373.
    • It was established also with the aim of facilitating technical assistance to countries, as well as promoting closer cooperation and coordination both within the UN.

    Its working

    • While the CTC is not a direct capacity provider it does act as a broker between those states or groups that have the relevant capacities and those in the need of assistance.
    • While the ultimate aim of the Committee is to increase the ability of States to fight terrorism, it is not a sanctions body nor does it maintain a list of terrorist groups or individuals.

    Significance of the event

    • India has been pushing for the UN members to adopt a Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (first proposed in 1996), which is likely to be raised during the meeting.
    • The event will showcase India’s role as a victim of terrorism as well as a country at the forefront of global counter-terrorism efforts.
    • CTC meeting in India could also pave the way for a possible visit to New York by PM Narendra Modi in December, when India will be the President of the UNSC for the entire month.

    Way ahead: Hitting the nerve

    • While terror financing was now recognised by FATF, it was necessary to build templates and “codes of conduct” for newer threats.
    • Today terror financing now includes financing through cryptocurrency and the use of drones for terror attacks.

     

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  • Taiwan between giants

    Context

    The US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan evoking strong protest from China.

    Brief history of China-Taiwan Tensions

    • Taiwan is an island about 160 km off the coast of southeastern China, opposite the Chinese cities of Fuzhou, Quanzhou, and Xiamen.
    • It was administered by the imperial Qing dynasty, but its control passed to the Japanese in 1895.
    • After the defeat of Japan in World War II, the island passed back into Chinese hands.
    • After the communists led by Mao Zedong won the civil war in mainland China, Chiang Kai-shek, the leader of the nationalist Kuomintang party, fled to Taiwan in 1949.
    • Chiang Kai-shek set up the government of the Republic of China on the island, and remained President until 1975.
    • Beijing has never recognised the existence of Taiwan as an independent political entity, arguing that it was always a Chinese province.

    The US and One-China Principle

    • With the shifting geopolitics of the Cold War, the PRC and the U.S. were forced to come together in the 1970s to counter the growing influence of the USSR.
    • This led to the US-China rapprochement demonstrated by the historic visit of then US President Richard Nixon to PRC in 1972.
    • The same year, the PRC displaced ROC as the official representative of the Chinese nation at the UN.
    • Diplomatic relations with the PRC became possible only if countries abided by its “One China Principle” — recognizing PRC and not the ROC as China.

    Why does China have a problem with Pelosi visiting Taiwan?

    • For China, the presence of a senior American figure in Taiwan would indicate some kind of US support for Taiwan’s independence.
    • This move severely undermined China’s perception of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    China’s reaction

    • Increased military exercises around Taiwa : Military exercises around Taiwan have been expanded, with Chinese aircraft intruding more frequently across the informal median line which defines the zone of operations on each side.
    • Increased naval presence: Chinese naval ships are cruising within the Taiwan Straits and around the island itself.
    • Economic sanctions have been announced, prohibiting imports of a whole range of foodstuffs from Taiwan.
    • One item which will be left out is semi-conductors, a critical import for a range of Chinese high-tech industries.
    • Taiwanese firms like the Taiwan Semi-Conductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are world leaders in the most sophisticated brands of chips imported by a large number of countries.
    •  The main target of China’s escalating response will be Taiwan.
    • Taiwan is indeed caught in the crossfire between China and the US and being a proxy in a fight between giants.

    Implications for East Asia and South East Asia

    • Forced into making a choice: Just as Taiwan is caught in a crossfire between the US and China, so are the East Asian and South East Asian countries.
    • Prefer US military presence: They feel reassured by the considerable US military presence deployed in the region and tacitly support its Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • Strong economic ties with China: However, their economic and commercial interests are bound ever tighter with the large and growing Chinese economy.
    • This having it both ways strategy is beginning to fray at the edges with the escalating tensions between the US and China.
    • Most do not wish to be forced into making a choice.

    What should be India’s approach?

    • Advantageous for India: In one sense, China’s preoccupation with its eastern ocean flank of the Yellow Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea is good for India.
    • It diminishes Chinese attention toward the Indian Ocean, India’s primary security theatre.
    • Adhere to One China Policy: Prudence demands that India hew closely to its consistent one China policy even while maintaining and even expanding non-official relations with Taiwan.
    • For the US, Japan and Australia, members of the Quad, Taiwan is a key component of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • It is not for India.

    Conclusion

    One should use the opportunity to expand India’s naval capabilities and maritime profile in this theatre before the Chinese begin to look to our extended neighbourhood with renewed interest and energy.

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  • Taiwan Crisis

    As US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived upsetting China, India was keenly watching the developments, although it has not yet commented on it.

    What is the ‘One China’ policy?

    • It is the diplomatic acknowledgment of China’s position that there is only one Chinese government.
    • Taiwan’s government was set up by the Kuomintang, whose party logo is reflected in Taiwan’s flag
    • Initially, many governments including the US recognised Taiwan as they shied away from Communist China.
    • But the diplomatic winds shifted as China and the United States saw a mutual need to develop relations beginning in the 1970s, with the US and other countries cutting ties with Taipei in favour of Beijing.

    Why is China obsessed with Taiwan?

    • Taiwan is the largest producer of electronic chips, which are supplied to almost all the industries, from phones to laptops, watches to game consoles, industrial equipment to automotive, and aircraft and fighter jets.
    • TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is the largest foundry in the world and holds around 65 percent of the global production of chips.
    • Any potential conflict with China would completely disrupt the entire supply chain of TSMC and labor availability, and could cause major shortage of electronic chips.
    • Additionally, China controls five percent of the global production of chips, which could also be affected.
    • This could further impact the already existing supply-demand gap for electronic components.

    India- Taiwan Relations

    Background

    • India does not have formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan yet, as it follows the One-China policy.
    • However, during then Chinese premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to India in December 2010, India did not mention support for the One-China policy in the joint communique.
    • In 2014, when PM Modi came to power, he invited Taiwan’s Ambassador Chung-Kwang Tien, along with Lobsang Sangay, president of the Central Tibetan Administration to his swearing-in.

    Diplomatic ties

    • While following the One-China policy, India has an office in Taipei for diplomatic functions — India-Taipei Association (ITA) is headed by a senior diplomat.
    • Taiwan has the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center (TECC) in New Delhi. Both were established in 1995.
    • Their ties focus on commerce, culture and education.
    • Now in their third decade, these have been deliberately kept low-profile, owing to China’s sensitivities.
    • For example, parliamentary delegation visits and legislature-level dialogues have stopped since 2017, around the time the India-China border standoff happened in Doklam.

    The new push

    • Any significant development in India-Taiwan relations runs the risk of meeting with a likely stern reaction from Beijing.
    • This explains India’s steady, albeit slow, outreach to Taiwan.
    • Given that India-China relations are not likely to witness a return to normalcy in the near future, India should consider adopting a bold, comprehensive and long-term approach to engage Taiwan.

     

     

  • What is the New START treaty?

    Russia is ready for talks with the United States on nuclear arms control even as Moscow and Washington have remained locked in a tense stand-off over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

    The New START, INF and the Open Skies …. Be clear about the differences of these treaties. For example- to check if their inception was during cold war era etc.

    New START Treaty

    • The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) pact limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads, missiles and bombers and is due to expire in 2021 unless renewed.
    • The treaty limits the US and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, well below Cold War caps.
    • It was signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
    • It is one of the key controls on the superpower deployment of nuclear weapons.

    Background of US-Russia Nuclear Relations

    • The US formally QUIT the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF)
    • The agreement obliged the two countries to eliminate all ground-based missiles of ranges between 500 and 5,500 km.

    When did nuclear disarmament begin?

    • In 1985, the two countries entered into arms control negotiations on three tracks.
    • The first dealt with strategic weapons with ranges of over 5,500 km, leading to the START agreement in 1991.
    • It limited both sides to 1,600 strategic delivery vehicles and 6,000 warheads.
    • A second track dealt with intermediate-range missiles and this led to the INF Treaty in 1987.
    • A third track, Nuclear, and Space Talks was intended to address Soviet concerns regarding the U.S.’s Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) but this did not yield any outcome.

    Success of INF

    • The INF Treaty was hailed as a great disarmament pact even though no nuclear warheads were dismantled.
    • As it is a bilateral agreement, it did not restrict other countries.
    • By 1991, the INF was implemented. USSR destroyed 1,846 and the US destroyed 846 Pershing and cruise missiles. 
    • Associated production facilities were also closed down.
    • INF Treaty was the first pact to include intensive verification measures, including on-site inspections.

    How has the nuclear behavior been?

    • With the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the USSR in end-1991, former Soviet allies were joining NATO and becoming EU members.
    • The U.S. was investing in missile defense and conventional global precision strike capabilities to expand its technological lead.
    • In 2001, the U.S. announced its unilateral withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty).
    • The US also blamed Russia for not complying with the ‘zero-yield’ standard imposed by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This may indicate the beginning of a new nuclear arms race.

    Implications of the New Start

    • The 2011 New START lapsed in 2021. It may meet the fate of the INF Treaty.
    • The 2018 NPR envisaged the development of new nuclear weapons, including low-yield weapons.
    • China is preparing to operate its test site year-round with its goals for its nuclear force.
    • CTBT requires ratification by U.S., China, and Iran, Israel and Egypt and adherence by India, Pakistan and North Korea. It is unlikely to ever enter into force.

    Conclusion

    • A new nuclear arms race could just be the beginning. It may be more complicated because of multiple countries being involved.
    • Technological changes are bringing cyber and space domains into contention. It raises the risks of escalation.

     

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  • INSTC

    Context

    Last week, two 40-ft containers of wood laminate sheets crossed the Caspian Sea from Russia’s Astrakhan port, entered Iran’s Anzali port, continued their southward journey towards the Arabian Sea, entered the waters at Bandar Abbas and eventually reach Nhava Shiva port in Mumbai.

    Launch of INSTC

    • The journey of containers signalled the launch of the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km multi-modal transport corridor that combines road, rail and maritime routes connecting Russia and India via central Asia and Iran.
    • The legal framework for the INSTC is provided by a trilateral agreement signed by India, Iran and Russia at the Euro-Asian Conference on Transport in 2000.
    • Since then Kazakhstan, Belarus, Oman, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Syria have signed instruments of accession to become members of the INSTC.
    • Once fully operational, the INSTC is expected to reduce freight costs by 30% and journey time by 40% in comparison with the conventional deep sea route via the Suez Canal.
    • The corridor is expected to consolidate the emerging Eurasian Free Trade Area.

    Significance for India

    • Geopolitical link: The INSTC’s launch provides missing pieces of the puzzle about India’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    • India’s investment in the INSTC is exemplified by its involvement in Iran’s Chabahar port and the construction of a 500-km Chabahar-Zahedan railway line.
    •  The India Ports Global Limited, a joint venture between the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust and Kandla Port Trust, will develop the port along with Iran’s Aria Banader.
    • IRCON International will contribute to constructing the railway line.
    • A special economic zone around Chabahar will offer Indian companies the opportunity to set up a range of industries.
    • The INSTC, thus, provides an opportunity for the internationalisation of India’s infrastructural state, with state-run businesses taking the lead and paving the way for private companies.

    Geopolitical significance for India

    • Access to Afghanistan and Central Asia: Once completed, this infrastructure will allow India access to Afghanistan and central Asia, a prospect strengthened by the Taliban government’s support for the project.
    • India can now bypass Pakistan to access Afghanistan, central Asia and beyond.
    • North-South transport corridor: The INSTC can shape a north-south transport corridor that can complement the east-west axis of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Non-alignment to multi-alignment: India’s founding role in both the INSTC and the Quad exemplify its departure from non-alignment to multi-alignment.
    • The INSTC offers a platform for India to closely collaborate with Russia, Iran and Central Asian republics. 
    • That two of its partners are subject to Western sanctions hasn’t prevented India from collaborating with the U.S., Japan and Australia as part of the Quad to create and safeguard a free and open Indo-Pacific.

    Conclusion

    As a transcontinental multi-modal corridor that aims to bring Eurasia closer together, the INSTC is a laudable initiative in its own right. That it helps India consolidate its multi-alignment strategy sweetens the deal.

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