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Subject: International Relations

  • QUAD: its origins, goals and future plans

    Why was it formed?

    • While not stated explicitly by the leaders, a major basis for the grouping is to check China’s growing influence in the region.
    • After the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 wreaked havoc in the region now called the Indo-Pacific, India stepped up its rescue efforts.
    • India provided assistance to its maritime neighbours: Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Indonesia.
    • Soon, the disaster relief effort was joined by three other naval powers — the U.S., Australia and Japan.
    • Then US President George W. Bush announced that the four countries would set up an international coalition to coordinate the massive effort.
    • While the charge of the rescue operations was handed over to the United Nations shortly after, it led to the birth of a new framework: the Quadrilateral or Quad.

    Development of present day QUAD

    • Then Japanese PM Shinzo Abe had been promoting the idea of an “arc of prosperity and freedom”.
    • This brought the Quad countries closer together, further developed the concept and discussed it with then PM Manmohan Singh during a summit in December 2006.
    • The 2007 Indo-U.S. Malabar naval exercises also saw the partial involvement of Japan, Australia and Singapore.
    • The exercises and coordination were seen by China as an attempt to encircle it, which termed the grouping as trying to build “an Asian NATO”.

    Descent and revival in its formation

    • The Quad lost momentum post the 2007 meeting as the effort “dissipated amidst member leadership transitions.
    • The grouping was only revived an entire decade later in 2017, at a time when all four countries had revised their assessment of the China challenge; and India had witnessed the Doklam standoff.
    • Leaders of all four countries met in the Philippines for the ‘India-Australia-Japan-U.S.’ dialogue, not referred to as a Quad dialogue to avoid the notion of a “gang-up”.

    Basis: Indo-Pacific

    • Even at this point, a set of objectives, areas of cooperation, and even the definition of Indo-Pacific were not fixed among Quad members.
    • It was in March 2021 that Mr. Biden, Mr. Modi, Australia’s outgoing PM Scott Morrison, and then Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga met virtually, for the first time as an official Quad summit.
    • It released a set of objectives for the grouping in a joint statement called the ‘The Spirit of the Quad’.

    What were the objectives of the grouping?

    • Coming together to foster a free and open Indo-Pacific formed the bedrock of cooperation.
    • Now it commits to promoting the free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and undaunted by coercion, to bolster security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
    • Emphasis was laid on “rule of law, territorial integrity, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, and democratic values” in the region.

    Various initiatives of QUAD

    • Quad leaders launched the Quad Vaccine Initiative (QVI) with the aim of manufacturing and distributing at least a billion COVID-19 vaccines for the Asia region by the end of 2022.
    • As for emerging technologies, the four countries aimed to work on the development and diversification of 5G telecommunications.
    • They aim for creation of supply chains for critical minerals and technologies for making semiconductors used in smartphones, another area where China is a leader.
    • Quad nations had also agreed to build joint connectivity projects and transparent infrastructure funding for countries in the region.
    • The Quad also created a working group for combating climate change which would oversee efforts to foster green shipping by decarbonising maritime supply chains and promoting the use of clean hydrogen.

    What are the future plans of the Quad?

    • The Leaders will review the progress of Quad initiatives and Working Groups, identify new areas of cooperation and provide strategic guidance and vision for future collaboration.
    • The Quad summit is expected to discuss the Russian war in Ukraine, and the impact of three months of Western sanctions.
    • US also unveiled the ‘Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’ (IPEF) which is a programme to bind countries in the region more closely through common standards.
    • Quad members also launched a maritime monitoring plan to curb illegal fishing in the Indo-Pacific.

    Various challenges

    • How to deal with China thus remains the central question for Quad. Each Quad member views the Chinese threat differently.
    • For Australia too, trade was the biggest issue until the recent establishment of a Chinese military base in the Solomon Islands brought a new dimension.
    • Japan and India are closest to China, and both face belligerent Chinese claims to territory.
    • The security build-up of QUAD is also yet to materialize.

     

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  • Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF)

    India has signalled its readiness to be part of a new economic initiative led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) by the US for the region.

    What is IPEF?

    • The grouping, which includes seven out of 10 members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), all four Quad countries, and New Zealand, represents about 40% of global GDP.
    • The negotiations for the IPEF are expected to centre around four main pillars, including trade, supply chain resiliency, clean energy and decarbonisation, and taxes and anti-corruption measures.
    • Countries would have to sign up to all of the components within a module, but do not have to participate in all modules.
    • The “fair and resilient trade” module will be led by the US Trade Representative and include digital, labor, and environment issues, with some binding commitments.
    • The IPEF seeks to strengthen economic partnership amongst participating countries with the objective of enhancing resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

    Features of IPEF

    • US officials made it clear that the IPEF would not be a “free trade agreement”, nor are countries expected to discuss reducing tariffs or increasing market access.
    • The IPEF will not include market access commitments such as lowering tariff barriers,
    • In that sense, the IPEF would not seek to replace the 11-nation CPTPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) that the US quit in 2017, or the RCEP, which China, and all of the other IPEF countries (minus the US) are a part of.
    • Three ASEAN countries considered closer to China — Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos — are not members of the IPEF.

    Four pillars of IPEF

    1. Trade that will include digital economy and emerging technology, labour commitments, the environment, trade facilitation, transparency and good regulatory practices, and corporate accountability, standards on cross-border data flows and data localisations;
    2. Supply chain resiliency to develop “a first-of-its-kind supply chain agreement” that would anticipate and prevent disruptions;
    3. Clean energy and decarbonisation that will include agreements on “high-ambition commitments” such as renewable energy targets, carbon removal purchasing commitments, energy efficiency standards, and new measures to combat methane emissions; and
    4. Tax and anti-corruption, with commitments to enact and enforce “effective tax, anti-money laundering, anti-bribery schemes in line with [American] values”.

    Reasons for creation of IPEF

    • The IPEF is also seen as a means by which the US is trying to regain credibility in the region after former President Donald Trump pulled out of the Trans Pacific Partnership TPP).
    • Since then, there has been concern over the absence of a credible US economic and trade strategy to counter China’s economic influence in the region.
    • China is an influential member of the TPP, and has sought membership of its successor agreement Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans Pacific Partnership.
    • It is also in the 14-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, of which the US is not a member (India withdrew from RCEP).
    • The Biden Administration is projecting IPEF as the new US vehicle for re-engagement with East Asia and South East Asia.

     

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  • Illegal fishing by China in the Indo-Pacific

    In order to check China’s illegal fishing in the Indo-Pacific region, the Quadrilateral Security Alliance (Quad) has planned to launch a satellite-based surveillance initiative.

    What is the news?

    • The leaders of Quad are reported to be getting ready to unveil a maritime surveillance initiative to protect exclusive economic zones in the Indo-Pacific against environmental damage.

    How will the proposed maritime surveillance system work?

    • The initiative will use satellite technology to connect existing surveillance centres in India, Singapore and the Pacific.
    • This will help establish a tracking system to combat illegal, unregulated and unprotected (IUU) fishing.
    • The satellite-enabled dragnet will track IUU fishing activities from the Indian Ocean and South-east Asia to the South Pacific.
    • The idea is to monitor illicit fishing vessels that have their AIS (automatic identification system) transponders turned off to evade tracking.
    • The move by the Quad security group is also seen to be aimed at reducing the small Pacific island nations’ growing reliance on China.

    Why is illegal fishing seen as such a big threat?

    • The unregulated plunder of global fishing stock poses a grave threat to the livelihood and food security of millions of people.
    • Globally, fish provide about 3.3 billion people with 20% of their average animal protein intake.
    • According to an FAO report, around 60 million people are engaged in the sector of fisheries and aquaculture.
    • While the economic loss from illegal fishing has been difficult to precisely quantify, some estimates peg it around USD 20 billion annually.

    Threats posed by IUU Fishing

    • Illegal fishing has now replaced piracy as a global maritime threat.
    • In the Indo-Pacific region, like elsewhere, the collapse of fisheries can destabilise coastal nations.
    • It poses a much bigger security risk, as it can fuel human trafficking, drug crime and terror recruiting.

    Why is China in the dock?

    • The 2021 IUU Fishing Index, which maps 152 coastal countries, ranked China as the worst offender.
    • China is considered responsible for 80% to 95% illegal fishing in the region after having overfished its own waters.
    • It, in fact, is known to incentivise illegal fishing with generous subsidies to meet its growing domestic demand.

    China and distant-water fishing (DWF)

    • China’s DWF fleet has almost 17,000 vessels and is the largest in the world.
    • Vessel ownership is highly fragmented among many small companies and the fleet includes vessels registered in other jurisdictions.

    Issues with Chinese IUU Fishing

    • Chinese are often accused of pillaging ocean wealth with great sophistication and with little regard for maritime boundaries.
    • China also uses them to project strategic influence and to bully fishing vessels from weaker nations.
    • China uses destructive practises such as bottom trawling and forced, bonded and slave labour and trafficked crew, alongside the widespread abuse of migrant crewmembers.

     

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  • NATO Expansion & Russia

    After nearly three months of debate within the two countries, Finland and Sweden have formally applied for membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Expansion of NATO: Transforming Europe

    • The war in Ukraine has already changed the geopolitics of Europe and the world.
    • The admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO would bring about a transformation in the continent’s security map by giving NATO a contiguous long frontier in western Russia.
    • Finland and Russia share a 1,300-km border — and doubling it from the present 1,200 km, parts of it in northern Norway, Latvia and Estonia, and Poland and Lithuania.
    • In addition, Sweden’s island of Gotland in the middle of the Baltic Sea would give NATO a strategic advantage.
    • Furthermore, when Sweden and Finland join NATO, the Baltic Sea — Russia’s gateway to the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean — would be ringed entirely by NATO members.

    Why Nordic countries are willing to join NATO?

    • Although the debate over joining NATO was ongoing in both countries for nearly three decades, Russia’s annexation of Crimea pushed both towards NATO’s “open door” policy.
    • Still, there was little political consensus in either country, especially in Sweden where the Social Democrats have long been against the idea.
    • However, February 24 changed everything the date on which Russia invaded Ukraine.

    A knee jerk reaction?

    • If Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was meant to deter NATO’s eastward expansion, the war has had the opposite effect.
    • If admitted, Sweden and Finland will become its 31st and 32nd members.

    Russian response

    • Back in March, Russia had evoked a threatening response to take retaliatory measures by stationing its nuclear and hypersonic weapons close to the Baltic Sea.
    • Russia denounced the problems with Finland and Sweden but the NATO’s expansion at the expense of these countries does not pose a direct threat to us.
    • But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory will certainly provoke their response, warned Mr Putin.
    • Sweden had already said it would not allow NATO bases or nuclear weapons on its territory.

    Hurdles for Finland, Sweden

    • At the moment the main obstacle to their applications in Turkey, a member since 1952 and which has NATO’s second-largest army after the US.
    • Turkish president Erdogan has objected to their applications on the ground that the two countries had provided safe haven to the leaders of the Kurdish group PKK.
    • Many Kurdish and other exiles have found refuge in Sweden over the past decades.
    • PKK is an armed movement fighting for a separate Kurdistan, comprising Kurdish areas in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria.
    • Neither of these countries have a clear, open attitude towards terrorist organisation.

    What could Turkey gain?

    • Turkey is expected to seek to negotiate a compromise deal to seek action on Kurdish groups.
    • Erdogan could also seek to use Sweden and Finland’s membership to wrest concessions from the United States and other allies.
    • Turkey wants to return to the US-led F-35 fighter jet program — a project it was kicked out of following its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems.
    • Alternatively, Turkey is looking to purchase a new batch of F-16 fighter jets and upgrade its existing fleet.

    How does this affect Turkey’s image in the West?

    • Turkey is reinforcing an image that is blocking the alliance’s expansion for its own profit.
    • It also risks damaging the credit it had earned by supplying Ukraine with the Bayraktar TB2 armed drones that became an effective weapon against Russian forces.

    Is Turkey trying to appease Russia?

    • Turkey has built close relations with both Russia and Ukraine and has been trying to balance its ties with both.
    • It has refused to join sanctions against Russia — while supporting Ukraine with the drones that helped deny Russia air superiority.

     

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  • A war that is shrinking India’s geopolitical options

    Context

    What was initially assumed in New Delhi to be a quick confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the war in Europe is now raging on with no end in sight, and with its long-term implications yet unknown.

    Why Ukraine war may reduce India’s options

    • For several weeks during late March and April, it seemed as though the Ukraine war presented a number of geopolitical options for New Delhi to choose from.
    • War may limit India’s options: Instead of enhancing New Delhi’s ability to make strategic choices in its broader region, the Ukraine war may actually limit the number of options available to New Delhi for at least three reasons.
    • 1]Absence of Russia for balancing purposes: Russia as a key strategic partner is no longer available to India for balancing purposes.
    • 2] Increased Chinese influence in the region:  Russia’s sudden absence from the Asian balance of power equations has further enhanced Chinese influence in the region.
    • By the time the war ends, whatever may be the shape of the global balance of power, the regional balance of power would have irretrievably shifted in Beijing’s favour.
    • 3] Indo-Pacific region moving out of focus: Given that the United States and its western partners are more interested on the Ukraine theatre today, their focus on China is already taking a hit, if not yet on the Indo-Pacific.

    India’s dilemmas in medium to long term

    1] Managing China

    • Weakened US influence in South Asia: While the Ukraine war has strengthened and revitalised the U.S.-led military and political coalition globally, it is bound to weaken the American influence in the Southern Asian region.
    • China is the biggest beneficiary of the U.S./western retrenchment from the region which gives it a free hand in it.
    • Russia not available: For New Delhi, Moscow is no longer available for its pursuit of its regional interests, and the U.S.’s ability to produce favourable geopolitical outcomes for India in the region is shrinking as well.
    • While there is little doubt that in the longer run, a war-fatigued and weakened Russia will become a junior partner to China, India today does have an opportunity to get Moscow to nudge Beijing to stop its irredentism on the LAC.
    • If the Chinese side, taking advantage of the Ukraine distraction, heats up the LAC, India would have to turn to the West and the U.S. for support (political, diplomatic, intelligence, etc.).
    • This would invariably hurt Russian interests. 
    • Russia, it is important that two of its Asian friends — China and India — do not clash at least while the war is still on.
    • While this may be a useful way to manage the Chinese aggression on the LAC in the short term, this will depend on how China views its dynamics with Russia and that of Russia with India.
    • Herein lies the challenge for India.
    • India’s engagement with Indo-Pacific region: If China were to stabilise the LAC at the nudging of Russia, it would also expect India to go slow on the Indo-Pacific, something India can ill-afford to do.
    • Inability to exploit contradictions: While, under normal circumstances, India could have utilised the many inherent contradictions between Moscow and Beijing, the Ukraine war has suspended those contradictions.

    2] How Ukraine war affected India’s north-western continental strategy

    • India’s north-western continental strategy, in particular towards Afghanistan and Central Asia, too will get complicated due to the Ukraine war.
    • For over a year now, the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan is calm and the violence in Kashmir has come down.
    • More pertinently, New Delhi’s presence from Afghanistan has entirely disappeared.
    • So, it appears that the calm in Kashmir and along the LoC is a quid pro quo for the Indian withdrawal from Afghanistan.
    • If this is a bargain New Delhi accepts, it will not only mean giving up its strategic interests in Afghanistan but also reducing its engagement in the Central Asian region as well at a time China is making feverish inroads into the region, right in the backyard of the Russian sphere of influence.
    • Had Moscow not been caught in the Ukraine war, it would have fended off Beijing’s attempts to take over its backyard (in one sense, China is doing to Russia using economic means what the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been doing to Russia using military means).
    • During the December summit, India and Russia had decided on a number of initiatives focusing on Central Asia and Afghanistan.
    • They are unlikely to be revived anytime soon, ceding further ground to China and Pakistan.

    Conclusion

    The combined geopolitical impact of the ill-timed U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia’s Ukraine war, and the rapid expansion of Chinese influence goes to show how New Delhi’s geopolitical choices have suddenly shrunk due to the Ukraine war.

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  • For a better South Asian neighbourhood

    Context

    Recent developments — in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan — underline the geographic imperative that binds India to its neighbours in the Subcontinent.

    Need for intensive regional cooperation for managing the new dangers

    • Working with the logic of geography has become an unavoidable necessity amidst the deepening regional and global crises accentuated by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
    • As higher oil and food prices trigger inflation and popular unrest across the region, more intensive regional cooperation is one of the tools for managing the new dangers.

    Hope for transcending internal divide between India and Sri Lanka

    • India’s relations with Sri Lanka underline the importance of continuous tending of political geography.
    • Tradition of hosting political exile: India has had a long tradition of hosting political exiles from the region.
    • Whether it was the Dalai Lama from Tibet or Prachanda from Nepal, Delhi has welcomed leaders from the neighbourhood taking shelter in India.
    • Negative consequences: There is a dangerous flip side to this positive tradition in the Subcontinent.
    • India has paid a high price for the decision in the early 1980s to train and arm Sri Lankan Tamil rebels.
    • Hope for transcending internal divide: The current crisis in Sri Lanka raised hopes for transcending the internal ethnic divide in the island nation and rebuilding political confidence between Colombo and Delhi.
    • Material and financial support to Sri Lanka: Delhi’s unstinting support — both material and financial — for Colombo during this unprecedented economic and political crisis has generated much goodwill in Sri Lanka.

    Relations with Nepal and role of cultural ties

    • Possibilities in cultural geography: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Lumbini, the birthplace of Lord Buddha in Nepal, highlights the immense possibilities of cultural geography in reshaping the Subcontinent’s regional relations.
    • The idea of a “Buddhist circuit” connecting the various pilgrimage sites across the India-Nepal border has been around for a long time.
    • India and Nepal have come together in developing the Buddhist circuit.
    • Religion and culture are deeply interconnected in South Asia.
    • Developing all religious pilgrimage sites across the region, and improving the transborder access to them could not only improve tourist revenues of all the South Asian nations, but could also have a calming effect on the troubled political relations
    • That China has built a new airport near Lumbini and Modi is avoiding it points to the turbulent triangular dynamic between Delhi, Kathmandu, and Beijing.
    • Revitalising the shared cultural geography inevitably involves better management of economic geography.
    • Infrastructure development on Indian side: The last few years have seen the Indian government step up on infrastructure development on the Indian side and accelerate transborder transport and energy connectivity in the eastern subcontinent.

    Recent trends in India-Pakistan relations

    • Cultural ties: Despite their frozen bilateral political relationship, Delhi and Islamabad had agreed to open the Kartarpur corridor at the end of 2019 across their militarised Punjab border.
    • There is much more to be done on reconnecting the Subcontinent’s sacred geographies — including the Ramayana trail and Sufi shrines.
    • While parts of the region are aligning their policies with the geographic imperative, Pakistan would seem to be an exception.
    • Ignoring the geographic imperative: Given the depth of its macro economic crisis and massive inflation, one might have thought Pakistan would want to expand trade ties with India in its own economic interest.
    • But Pakistan’s politics are hard-wired against the logic of geography.
    • Delhi had little reason to believe that Pakistan’s new government can alter its self-defeating policy towards India.
    • But it must continue to bet that the geographic imperative will eventually prevail over Islamabad’s policies.

    Conclusion

    Realists might want to argue that current trends in the Subcontinent point to India’s growing agency in shaping its neighbourhood and that Pakistan will not forever remain an exception. For Delhi, the policy question is whether India can do something to hasten the inevitable change in Pakistan.

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  • From neutral to NATO: Why Finland joining the alliance matters

    Earlier reluctant, Finland is now hurtling to join NATO making a monumental shift for a nation with a long history of wartime neutrality and staying out of military alliances.

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Why was it founded?

    Ans. Communist sweep in Europe post-WWII and rise of Soviet dominance

    • After World War II in 1945, Western Europe was economically exhausted and militarily weak, and newly powerful communist parties had arisen in France and Italy.
    • By contrast, the Soviet Union had emerged from the war with its armies dominating all the states of central and Eastern Europe.
    • By 1948 communists under Moscow’s sponsorship had consolidated their control of the governments of those countries and suppressed all non-communist political activity.
    • What became known as the Iron Curtain, a term popularized by Winston Churchill, had descended over central and Eastern Europe.

    Ideology of NATO

    • NATO ensures that the security of its European member countries is inseparably linked to that of its North American member countries.
    • It commits the Allies to democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law, as well as to the peaceful resolution of disputes.
    • It also provides a unique forum for dialogue and cooperation across the Atlantic.

    What is Article 5?

    • Article 5 was a key part of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, or Washington Treaty, and was meant to offer a collective defence against a potential invasion of Western Europe.
    • It states: (NATO members) will assist the party or parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
    • However, since then, it has only been invoked once, soon after the 9/11 attack in the United States.

    Why Finland wishes to join now?

    • The country, so far, has stayed away from joining such alliances as it always wanted to maintain cordial relations with its neighbour Russia.
    • For a long time, the idea of not joining NATO or getting too close to the West was a matter of survival for the Finns.
    • However, the change in perception and overwhelming support to join NATO came about following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
    • NATO membership would strengthen the country’s security and defence system.

    Was this a long time coming?

    • For Finns, events in Ukraine bring a haunting sense of familiarity.
    • The Soviets had invaded Finland in late 1939 and despite the Finnish army putting up fierce resistance for more than three months, they ended up losing 10 per cent of their territory.
    • The country adopted to stay non-aligned during the cold war years.
    • However, insecurities started growing since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 as Finland brought back conscription and military spending went up.

    What about Sweden?

    • Sweden is likely to apply for membership after Finland’s final call.
    • If Finland joins, Sweden will be the only Nordic non-member of NATO.
    • Now, unlike Finland, whose policy stance was a matter of survival, Sweden has been opposed to joining the organisation for ideological reasons.

    What would a membership mean and will it benefit NATO as well?

    • NATO has shown eagerness about Finland and Sweden’s memberships.
    • Usually, becoming an official NATO member can take up to a year as it requires the approval of all existing member states.
    • Finland’s geographical location plays in its favour as once it becomes a member, the length of borders Russia shares with NATO would double.
    • This would also strengthen the alliance’s position in the Baltic Sea.

    How have Russia and other countries reacted?

    • Russia’s foreign ministry has said that they will be forced to take military steps if the membership materialises.
    • Russia has warned that this may prompt Moscow to deploy nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania.

     

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  • US to host ASEAN leaders

    US President Joe Biden will host leaders and top officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Washington DC.

    About ASEAN

    • ASEAN is a political and economic union of 10 member states in Southeast Asia.
    • It brings together ten Southeast Asian states – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – into one organisation.
    • It was established on 8th August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration by the founding fathers of the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines.
    • The preceding organisation was the Association of Southeast Asia (ASA) comprising of Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
    • Five other nations joined the ASEAN in subsequent years making the current membership to ten countries.

    Why in news?

    (A) Political purpose

    • ASEAN’s ‘Five Point Consensus’ to end the turmoil in Myanmar has not progressed since it was released in April last year.
    • In addition to discussing Myanmar, leaders are also expected to discuss Ukraine as well as regional issues.

    (B) Economic purpose

    • It is expected to discuss his administration’s economic plan for the region — the Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) — during this week’s summit.
    • The framework will structure cooperation across several pillars from infrastructure and supply chains to taxation.

    What is Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)?

    • The proposed IPEF is the Biden administration’s answer to questions about the United States’ economic commitment to the vital Indo-Pacific region.
    • IPEF will consist of four “pillars” of work:
    1. Fair and resilient trade (encompassing seven subtopics, including labor, environmental, and digital standards)
    2. Supply chain resilience
    3. Infrastructure, clean energy, and decarbonization
    4. Tax and anti-corruption

     

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  • Ukraine conflict won’t make the US abandon Indo-Pacific strategy

    Context

    When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

    The Challenge of balancing China and Russia

    • There are two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question.
    • 1] Engagement with allies: When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.
    • Biden came to power with a determination to make the Indo-Pacific the highest priority of his foreign policy.
    • He is not going to abandon that objective in dealing with the unexpected crisis in Europe.
    • The assumption that China was the principal challenge and Russia was less of a threat led Biden to meet Putin in June 2021 to offer prospects for a reasonable relationship with Russia in order to devote US energies to the China question.
    • But Putin’s calculations led him towards a deeper strategic partnership with China
    • But America’s assessment of the Russian and Chinese threats has not changed since the war began in Ukraine.
    • The idea that China will gain from the Russian war in Ukraine has also proven to be false.
    • Expectations that Russia’s triumph in Ukraine will be followed by a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan have begun to dissipate.
    • Meanwhile, China is reeling under self-inflicted problems, most notably Xi Jinping’s zero Covid strategy and his crackdown on the large internet companies.
    • The costly foreign policy of China: Beijing’s prospects look a lot less rosy than before as the Chinese economy slows down and XI’s foreign policy turns out to be quite costly for China.
    • The muscular approach of China: In Asia, China’s muscular approach to disputes with its neighbours has helped strengthen the US alliances, create new forums like the AUKUS, elevate old ones like the Quad to a higher level, and consolidate the strategic conception of the Indo-Pacific.
    • 2] Coordination with allies and partners: Biden’s lemma to the theorem on a two-front strategy is a simple one — that Washington will address the simultaneous challenge in Europe and Asia not by acting alone but in coordination with allies and partners. 
    • The idea was rooted in the recognition that alliances and partnerships are America’s greatest strength and most important advantage over Russia and China.

    Engagement with Asia

    • ASEAN: This week’s summit level engagement with the ASEAN comes after sustained high-level US outreach to the region since the Biden Administration took charge.
    • In northeast Asia, the election of Yoon Suk-yeol as the president of South Korea has tilted the scales slightly towards the US in the continuing battle for influence between Beijing and Washington.
    • The US is also actively trying to reduce the differences between its two treaty allies in the region — South Korea and Japan.
    • Asia’s new coalitions are a response to Xi Jinping’s unilateralism and his quest for regional hegemony.
    • India’s enthusiasm for the Quad can be directly correlated to Xi’s military coercion on the disputed frontiers with India.

    Implications for India

    • The two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question have worked well for India.
    • Tolerance toward India-Russia engagement: For one, the US’s emphasis on the long-term challenge from China has meant that Washington is willing to tolerate India’s engagement with Russia.
    • Time for the diversification of defence ties: This gives India time to diversify its defence ties that have been heavily dependent on Russia.
    • The US emphasis on partnerships rather than unilateralism in dealing with the China challenge means India’s agency in the region can only grow.
    • The Quad allows Delhi to carve out a larger role for itself in Asia and the Indo-Pacific in collaboration with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    Contrary to the initial assumptions that America is on the retreat and the West is in disarray, it is Moscow and Beijing that are on the defensive as the war in Ukraine completes three months.

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  • The importance of emigrants

    Context

    Though the phenomenon of Indian-origin executives becoming CEOs of top U.S. companies highlights the contribution of Indian talent to the U.S. economy, the role played by Indian semi-skilled migrant labour in the global economy is no less illustrious.

    Destinations of Indian migrants

    • Every year, about 2.5 million workers from India move to different parts of the world on employment visas
    • According to the Ministry of External Affairs, there are over 13.4 million Non-Resident Indians worldwide.
    • Significance of GCC: Of them, 64% live in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the highest being in the United Arab Emirates, followed by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
    • Low and semi-skilled: Almost 90% of the Indian migrants who live in GCC countries are low- and semi-skilled workers, as per International Labour Organization estimates.
    • Other significant countries of destination for overseas Indians are the U.S., the U.K., Australia, and Canada.

    Contribution of Indian migrant workers

    • Besides being involved in nation-building of their destination countries, Indian migrant workers also contribute to the homeland’s socioeconomic development, through remittances.
    • Highest remittances: As per a World Bank Group report (2021), annual remittances transferred to India are estimated to be $87 billion, which is the highest in the world, followed by China ($53 billion), Mexico ($53 billion), the Philippines ($36 billion) and Egypt ($33 billion).
    •  Remittances in India have been substantially higher than even Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the flow of remittances is much less fluctuating than that of FDI.
    • Still, remittances’ contribution of 3% in GDP is lower than that of countries such as Nepal (24.8%), Pakistan (12.6%), Sri Lanka (8.3%) and Bangladesh (6.5%), as per a World Bank report.
    • Hedging strategy against risk: Besides being a win-win situation for both the destination and source country, labour migration is good hedging strategy against unsystematic risks for any economy.

    Way forward

    • Human capital should also be invested in a diversified portfolio akin to financial capital.
    • Promoting labour mobility: For many countries, remittances have been of vital support to the domestic economy after a shock.
    • India should aim to increase remittances to say 10% of GDP.
    • The Philippines’ model of promoting labour mobility be replicated in India.
    • Reducing the costs involved: Both the cost of recruitment of such workers and the cost of sending remittances back to India should come down.
    • Skilling: The number of migrant workers need not go up for remittances to increase if the skill sets of workers are improved.
    • Regulation of recruitment agencies: Recruitment agencies should also be regulated by leveraging information technology for ensuring protection of migrant workers leaving India.
    • An integrated grievance redressal portal, ‘Madad’, was launched by the government in 2015.
    • Proposed Emigration Bill 2021: The Indian government proposed a new Emigration Bill in 2021 which aims to integrate emigration management and streamline the welfare of emigrant workers.
    • It proposes to modify the system of Emigration Check Required (ECR) category of workers applying for migration to 18 notified countries.
    • The Bill makes it mandatory for all categories of workers to register before departure to any country in the world to ensure better protection for them, support and safeguard in case of vulnerabilities.
    • The proposed Emigration Management Authority will be the overarching authority to provide policy guidance.
    • Besides workers, as about 0.5 million students also migrate for education from India every year, the Bill also covers such students.

    Conclusion

    For India to increase remittances’ contribution to GDP, it doesn’t need more workers but skilling and better management.

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