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Subject: International Relations

  • Pacific Nations reject China Security Pact

    China has suffered a big diplomatic humiliation in the pacific. 10 island nations in the region rejected China’s proposed security pact.

    Why in news?

    • Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has returned empty-handed in a highly decorated visit to the Pacific Nations.
    • The secret deal that was to be brokered got leaked in public media, caused huge embarrassment to the Chinese.

    Conspicuous features of the Pact

    • China has had offered to radically ramp up its activities in the South Pacific, directly challenging the influence of the US and its allies in the strategically vital region.
    • The failed deal saw Beijing to:
    1. Train Pacific island police,
    2. Become involved in cybersecurity,
    3. Expand political ties,
    4. Conduct sensitive marine mapping and
    5. Gain greater access to natural resources on land and in the water
    • As an enticement, Beijing is offering millions of dollars in financial aid, the prospect of a potentially lucrative China-Pacific islands free trade agreement and access to China’s vast market.

    Why Pacific Nations rejected this lollipop?

    • The offer is perceived was “disingenuous” and would “ensure Chinese influence in government” and “economic control” of key industries.
    • The nations also cited a lack of regional consensus.

    Pls make observations about Pacific Island Nations:

     

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  • The return of the great power rivalries

    Context

    The post-Cold War period of peace in Europe is more an aberration than norm in the continent’s history of conflicts.

    Background of the First World War

    • The Russian power had collapsed in its far east after the war with Japan in 1904-05.
    • Faced with the erosion of Russian influence and the rise of Wilhelmine Germany, which together threatened to alter Europe’s balance of power, France and Britain, competing colonial powers, came together. 
    • France had already reached an alliance with Russia.
    • The three would later form the Triple Entente, triggering a dangerous security competition in Europe with the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy), which would eventually lead to the First World War in 1914.
    • What triggered the great power security competition in the run-up to the First World War was the phenomenal rise of Wilhelmine Germany as a military and industrial power and the regional hegemons’ response to it.

    Similarities with the past

    • When Otto von Bismarck became the Minister-President of Prussia in September 1862, there was no unified German state.
    •  Bismarck adopted an aggressive foreign policy, fought and won three wars — with Denmark, Austria and France — destroyed the confederation, established a stronger and larger German Reich that replaced Prussia.
    • Bismarck stayed focused on transforming Germany internally in his last two decades.
    • It was on the foundation Bismarck built that Wilhelmine Germany turned to weltpolitik in the early 20 century, seeking global domination.
    • If Bismarck inherited a weak, loosely connected group of German speaking entities in 1862, Russian President Vladimir Putin got a Russia in 2000 that was a pale shadow of what was the Soviet Union.
    • Bismarck spent his years in power expanding the borders of Germany and building a stronger state and economy.
    • The post-Cold War Russia initially stayed focused on the restoration of the state and the economy, and then sought to expand its borders and challenge the continent’s balance of power — first the Crimean annexation and now the Ukraine invasion.
    • While NATO’s expansion deepened Russia’s security concerns, driving it into aggressive moves, Russia’s aggression has strengthened NATO’s resolve to expand further into Russia’s neighbourhood.

    Offensive realism

    • Offensive realists argue that “revisionist powers” tend to use force to rewrite the balance of power if they find the circumstances are favourable, while the status quo powers, or the existing regional hegemons, would seek to thwart any new country attaining more power at their expense.
    • The result of this type of competition is permanent rivalry and conflict.
    • One major difference between the era of Wilhelmine Germany and modern Russia is that there were no well-defined international laws in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
    • The international system has evolved ever since.
    • But its basic instincts, as realists would argue, have not changed much.
    • Mr. Putin’s Russia is not the first country that violated the sovereignty of a weaker power and flouted international laws in the “rules-based” order.

    Future of Europe’s security

    • Russia apparently had two strategic objectives in Ukraine —
    • One, to expand Russian borders and create a buffer.
    • And two, to reinforce Russia’s deterrence against NATO.
    • While Russia has succeeded, though slowly, in expanding its borders by capturing almost all of Ukraine’s east, the war has backfired on its second objective.
    • Russia’s inability to clinch a quick outright victory in Ukraine and the tactical retreats it has already made have invariably dealt a blow to the perception of Russian power that existed before the war.
    • This has strengthened NATO, driving even Sweden and Finland into its arms. Besides, the economic sanctions would leave a long-term hole in Russia’s economy.
    • But a Russia that is bogged down in Ukraine and encircled by NATO need not enhance Europe’s security.
    • As Henry Kissinger said at Davos, Russia had been and would remain an important element in the European state system.

    Conclusion

    The prospects are bleak. There will not be peace in Europe unless either Russia accepts its diminished role and goes into another spell of strategic retreat or Europe and the West in general accommodate Russia’s security concerns. Both look unrealistic as of today.

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  • Understanding the nature of US-Taiwan Relations

    The US President made a controversial statement on whether the US will come to the aid of Taiwan militarily in case of an invasion by China.

    What is the Taiwan issue?

    • Taiwan is an island territory located off the coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait.
    • After their defeat to the communist forces in the Chinese civil war (1945-1949), the ruling Kuomintang (Nationalist) government of China fled to Taiwan.
    • They transplanted the Republic of China (ROC) government in Taiwan, while the Communist Party of China (CPC) established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the mainland.
    • Since then, the PRC considers the island as a renegade province awaiting reunification by peaceful means, if possible.

    Game changer: Cold war affiliations

    • Meanwhile, the ROC retained its membership at the United Nations and its permanent seat at the UN Security Council (UNSC).
    • The cross-strait relations became strained as a result of the Cold War, with the PRC allying itself with the Soviet Union (USSR) and ROC with the U.S.
    • This resulted in the two Taiwan Strait crises of the 1950s.

    The US and One-China Principle

    • With the shifting geopolitics of the Cold War, the PRC and the U.S. were forced to come together in the 1970s to counter the growing influence of the USSR.
    • This led to the US-China rapprochement demonstrated by the historic visit of then US President Richard Nixon to PRC in 1972.
    • The same year, the PRC displaced ROC as the official representative of the Chinese nation at the UN.
    • Diplomatic relations with the PRC became possible only if countries abided by its “One China Principle” — recognizing PRC and not the ROC as China.

    Rise of Taiwan

    • Taiwan transitioned from a single party state to a multi-party democracy.
    • At the same time that China reformed its economic system under Deng Xiaoping, and by the end of the Cold War they became economically entangled.
    • Nevertheless, they continue to compete for international recognition and preparing themselves for the worst possible scenario.

    How has the US’s stance on the Taiwan question evolved vis-à-vis China?

    • The very foundation of the US rapprochement as well as its recognition of the PRC is a mutual understanding on the Taiwan question.
    • This has been outlined in three documents — the Shanghai Communique (1972), the Normalisation Communique (1979) and the 1982 Communique.
    • According to the 1972 communique, the US agreed to the ‘one China principle’, with an understanding that it “acknowledges” and “does not challenge” that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait.
    • It maintained that there is one China and Taiwan is a part of China.
    • However, the US also established unofficial relations with Taiwan through this communique in the name of the people of both the countries.

     Why is the issue significant today?

    • As Taiwan’s democracy flourished, the popular mood drifted towards a new Taiwanese identity and a pro-independence stance on sovereignty.
    • The past decade has seen considerable souring of ties across the Strait, as the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) became the most powerful political force in Taiwan.
    • The DPP government has been catering to the pro-independence constituency in Taiwan and seeks to diversify economic relations away from China.
    • China has always seen Taiwan as a territory with high geopolitical significance.
    • This is due to its central location in the First Island Chain between Japan and the South China Sea, which is seen as the first benchmark or barrier for China’s power projection.

    Why is China so obsessed with Taiwan?

    • Taiwan is at China’s geostrategic calculus.
    • Moreover, its reunification will formally bury the remaining ghosts of China’s “century of humiliation”.
    • China under Xi Jinping seems to have lost its patience and currently sees very slim chances of a peaceful reunification.
    • China usually makes aerial transgressions in Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).
    • Also, this build-up of tensions is happening simultaneously and drawing parallels with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

    Is US strategy towards Taiwan witnessing a major transformation?

    • The US strategy towards Taiwan in light of the unresolved nature of the cross-Strait relations has been marked by what has been called “strategic ambiguity”.
    • This is under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979.
    • As per the TRA, the US has stated clearly that the establishment of bilateral relations with the PRC rests upon “the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means”.
    • It also states the US policy to maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardise the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.
    • Hence, there is no clear guarantee here that the US will militarily involve in a situation where China attempts to invade Taiwan, short of supplying “defensive weapons”.

    Enjoying the ambiguity

    • The US has for long utilized this strategic ambiguity with its own interpretation of the ‘one China principle to maintain its strategic interests in the Western Pacific.
    • It is in this context that Mr. Biden’s statements have made controversy.

     

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  • How the Quad can become more than an anti-China grouping

    Context

    On May 23, before the Quad leaders’ summit in Tokyo, the United States launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).

    Significance IPEF

    • The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) will consist of a diverse group of 12 countries initially — Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
    • The IPEF — which covers fair trade, supply chain resilience, infrastructure, clean energy, and decarbonisation, among others — is likely to complement the other Indo-Pacific projects like the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI)  that also seeks to build resilient and secure trade linkages by reducing dependence on China.
    • Decoupling from Chinese over-dependence: The US-led economic engagement is a salient attempt to allow countries to decouple from Chinese over-dependence in order to ultimately strengthen the existing free and open rules-based global order.
    • Extension of plus grouping: The launch of IPEF signifies the essence of the Quad and its extension as a “plus” grouping.
    •  It brings together seven critical countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), all Quad states, and dialogue partners, including South Korea, solidifying a case for the “plus” characterisation of the Quad process.
    • Thus, it is an encouraging sign that the Quad countries are investing their strategic orientation in this regard.
    • Importantly, both the IPEF launch, and the Tokyo summit dispel any remaining misgivings about the Quad disintegrating and certify that it is a cohesive unit where it matters.
    •  It would potentially represent an amalgamation of the eastern and western “like-minded” countries.
    • The expanded grouping and the related Quad initiatives will build a comprehensive and integrated approach to combating shared challenges arising out of Chinese aggression.
    • A hallmark of Biden’s latest Asia visit has been South Korea’s embrace of the Indo-Pacific framework.
    • This is a long-awaited turn that could potentially lead to South Korea participating in a more meaningful manner in the Quad in the near future.

    Importance of Taiwan

    • Taiwan is a major economy in the Indo-Pacific region (as also the US’s eighth-largest trading partner in 2021 and a critical partner in diversifying the US supply chains), which is already engaged in the US-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue that includes many of the issues proposed in the IPEF.
    • The inclusion of Taiwan, which already has a critical role in the global semi-conductor supply chain network, in the SCRI and the IPEF as well as, by extension, in the Quad format, in some manner would be a welcome addition.
    • Geopolitical statement against coercive tactics: Importantly, Taiwan’s inclusion would also be a geopolitical statement against coercion tactics by international actors.

    Inclusivity characteristics based on a  commitment to the existing international order

    • In its current abstract framework, the plus framework includes a wide array of states (which also comprise the IPEF) — developing and developed economies as well as middle and major powers that are committed to maintaining an inclusive, rules-based and liberal institutional order.
    • The inclusivity angle is suspect as the grouping is essentially what China calls a US-led “anti-China” tool.
    • Therefore, what interested states must envision is a broad, all-embracing, and comprehensive framework that can stand as a pillar for regional security and stability, multilateralism, and defence of global institutionalism and the status quo.

    Conclusion

    States are showing their willingness, and now it is incumbent on the Quad states to allow for the creation of a “corridor of communication” that ultimately leads to a “continental connect” to strengthen a rules-based order.

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  • QUAD: its origins, goals and future plans

    Why was it formed?

    • While not stated explicitly by the leaders, a major basis for the grouping is to check China’s growing influence in the region.
    • After the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 wreaked havoc in the region now called the Indo-Pacific, India stepped up its rescue efforts.
    • India provided assistance to its maritime neighbours: Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Indonesia.
    • Soon, the disaster relief effort was joined by three other naval powers — the U.S., Australia and Japan.
    • Then US President George W. Bush announced that the four countries would set up an international coalition to coordinate the massive effort.
    • While the charge of the rescue operations was handed over to the United Nations shortly after, it led to the birth of a new framework: the Quadrilateral or Quad.

    Development of present day QUAD

    • Then Japanese PM Shinzo Abe had been promoting the idea of an “arc of prosperity and freedom”.
    • This brought the Quad countries closer together, further developed the concept and discussed it with then PM Manmohan Singh during a summit in December 2006.
    • The 2007 Indo-U.S. Malabar naval exercises also saw the partial involvement of Japan, Australia and Singapore.
    • The exercises and coordination were seen by China as an attempt to encircle it, which termed the grouping as trying to build “an Asian NATO”.

    Descent and revival in its formation

    • The Quad lost momentum post the 2007 meeting as the effort “dissipated amidst member leadership transitions.
    • The grouping was only revived an entire decade later in 2017, at a time when all four countries had revised their assessment of the China challenge; and India had witnessed the Doklam standoff.
    • Leaders of all four countries met in the Philippines for the ‘India-Australia-Japan-U.S.’ dialogue, not referred to as a Quad dialogue to avoid the notion of a “gang-up”.

    Basis: Indo-Pacific

    • Even at this point, a set of objectives, areas of cooperation, and even the definition of Indo-Pacific were not fixed among Quad members.
    • It was in March 2021 that Mr. Biden, Mr. Modi, Australia’s outgoing PM Scott Morrison, and then Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga met virtually, for the first time as an official Quad summit.
    • It released a set of objectives for the grouping in a joint statement called the ‘The Spirit of the Quad’.

    What were the objectives of the grouping?

    • Coming together to foster a free and open Indo-Pacific formed the bedrock of cooperation.
    • Now it commits to promoting the free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and undaunted by coercion, to bolster security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
    • Emphasis was laid on “rule of law, territorial integrity, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, and democratic values” in the region.

    Various initiatives of QUAD

    • Quad leaders launched the Quad Vaccine Initiative (QVI) with the aim of manufacturing and distributing at least a billion COVID-19 vaccines for the Asia region by the end of 2022.
    • As for emerging technologies, the four countries aimed to work on the development and diversification of 5G telecommunications.
    • They aim for creation of supply chains for critical minerals and technologies for making semiconductors used in smartphones, another area where China is a leader.
    • Quad nations had also agreed to build joint connectivity projects and transparent infrastructure funding for countries in the region.
    • The Quad also created a working group for combating climate change which would oversee efforts to foster green shipping by decarbonising maritime supply chains and promoting the use of clean hydrogen.

    What are the future plans of the Quad?

    • The Leaders will review the progress of Quad initiatives and Working Groups, identify new areas of cooperation and provide strategic guidance and vision for future collaboration.
    • The Quad summit is expected to discuss the Russian war in Ukraine, and the impact of three months of Western sanctions.
    • US also unveiled the ‘Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’ (IPEF) which is a programme to bind countries in the region more closely through common standards.
    • Quad members also launched a maritime monitoring plan to curb illegal fishing in the Indo-Pacific.

    Various challenges

    • How to deal with China thus remains the central question for Quad. Each Quad member views the Chinese threat differently.
    • For Australia too, trade was the biggest issue until the recent establishment of a Chinese military base in the Solomon Islands brought a new dimension.
    • Japan and India are closest to China, and both face belligerent Chinese claims to territory.
    • The security build-up of QUAD is also yet to materialize.

     

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  • Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF)

    India has signalled its readiness to be part of a new economic initiative led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) by the US for the region.

    What is IPEF?

    • The grouping, which includes seven out of 10 members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), all four Quad countries, and New Zealand, represents about 40% of global GDP.
    • The negotiations for the IPEF are expected to centre around four main pillars, including trade, supply chain resiliency, clean energy and decarbonisation, and taxes and anti-corruption measures.
    • Countries would have to sign up to all of the components within a module, but do not have to participate in all modules.
    • The “fair and resilient trade” module will be led by the US Trade Representative and include digital, labor, and environment issues, with some binding commitments.
    • The IPEF seeks to strengthen economic partnership amongst participating countries with the objective of enhancing resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

    Features of IPEF

    • US officials made it clear that the IPEF would not be a “free trade agreement”, nor are countries expected to discuss reducing tariffs or increasing market access.
    • The IPEF will not include market access commitments such as lowering tariff barriers,
    • In that sense, the IPEF would not seek to replace the 11-nation CPTPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) that the US quit in 2017, or the RCEP, which China, and all of the other IPEF countries (minus the US) are a part of.
    • Three ASEAN countries considered closer to China — Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos — are not members of the IPEF.

    Four pillars of IPEF

    1. Trade that will include digital economy and emerging technology, labour commitments, the environment, trade facilitation, transparency and good regulatory practices, and corporate accountability, standards on cross-border data flows and data localisations;
    2. Supply chain resiliency to develop “a first-of-its-kind supply chain agreement” that would anticipate and prevent disruptions;
    3. Clean energy and decarbonisation that will include agreements on “high-ambition commitments” such as renewable energy targets, carbon removal purchasing commitments, energy efficiency standards, and new measures to combat methane emissions; and
    4. Tax and anti-corruption, with commitments to enact and enforce “effective tax, anti-money laundering, anti-bribery schemes in line with [American] values”.

    Reasons for creation of IPEF

    • The IPEF is also seen as a means by which the US is trying to regain credibility in the region after former President Donald Trump pulled out of the Trans Pacific Partnership TPP).
    • Since then, there has been concern over the absence of a credible US economic and trade strategy to counter China’s economic influence in the region.
    • China is an influential member of the TPP, and has sought membership of its successor agreement Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans Pacific Partnership.
    • It is also in the 14-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, of which the US is not a member (India withdrew from RCEP).
    • The Biden Administration is projecting IPEF as the new US vehicle for re-engagement with East Asia and South East Asia.

     

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  • Illegal fishing by China in the Indo-Pacific

    In order to check China’s illegal fishing in the Indo-Pacific region, the Quadrilateral Security Alliance (Quad) has planned to launch a satellite-based surveillance initiative.

    What is the news?

    • The leaders of Quad are reported to be getting ready to unveil a maritime surveillance initiative to protect exclusive economic zones in the Indo-Pacific against environmental damage.

    How will the proposed maritime surveillance system work?

    • The initiative will use satellite technology to connect existing surveillance centres in India, Singapore and the Pacific.
    • This will help establish a tracking system to combat illegal, unregulated and unprotected (IUU) fishing.
    • The satellite-enabled dragnet will track IUU fishing activities from the Indian Ocean and South-east Asia to the South Pacific.
    • The idea is to monitor illicit fishing vessels that have their AIS (automatic identification system) transponders turned off to evade tracking.
    • The move by the Quad security group is also seen to be aimed at reducing the small Pacific island nations’ growing reliance on China.

    Why is illegal fishing seen as such a big threat?

    • The unregulated plunder of global fishing stock poses a grave threat to the livelihood and food security of millions of people.
    • Globally, fish provide about 3.3 billion people with 20% of their average animal protein intake.
    • According to an FAO report, around 60 million people are engaged in the sector of fisheries and aquaculture.
    • While the economic loss from illegal fishing has been difficult to precisely quantify, some estimates peg it around USD 20 billion annually.

    Threats posed by IUU Fishing

    • Illegal fishing has now replaced piracy as a global maritime threat.
    • In the Indo-Pacific region, like elsewhere, the collapse of fisheries can destabilise coastal nations.
    • It poses a much bigger security risk, as it can fuel human trafficking, drug crime and terror recruiting.

    Why is China in the dock?

    • The 2021 IUU Fishing Index, which maps 152 coastal countries, ranked China as the worst offender.
    • China is considered responsible for 80% to 95% illegal fishing in the region after having overfished its own waters.
    • It, in fact, is known to incentivise illegal fishing with generous subsidies to meet its growing domestic demand.

    China and distant-water fishing (DWF)

    • China’s DWF fleet has almost 17,000 vessels and is the largest in the world.
    • Vessel ownership is highly fragmented among many small companies and the fleet includes vessels registered in other jurisdictions.

    Issues with Chinese IUU Fishing

    • Chinese are often accused of pillaging ocean wealth with great sophistication and with little regard for maritime boundaries.
    • China also uses them to project strategic influence and to bully fishing vessels from weaker nations.
    • China uses destructive practises such as bottom trawling and forced, bonded and slave labour and trafficked crew, alongside the widespread abuse of migrant crewmembers.

     

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  • NATO Expansion & Russia

    After nearly three months of debate within the two countries, Finland and Sweden have formally applied for membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Expansion of NATO: Transforming Europe

    • The war in Ukraine has already changed the geopolitics of Europe and the world.
    • The admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO would bring about a transformation in the continent’s security map by giving NATO a contiguous long frontier in western Russia.
    • Finland and Russia share a 1,300-km border — and doubling it from the present 1,200 km, parts of it in northern Norway, Latvia and Estonia, and Poland and Lithuania.
    • In addition, Sweden’s island of Gotland in the middle of the Baltic Sea would give NATO a strategic advantage.
    • Furthermore, when Sweden and Finland join NATO, the Baltic Sea — Russia’s gateway to the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean — would be ringed entirely by NATO members.

    Why Nordic countries are willing to join NATO?

    • Although the debate over joining NATO was ongoing in both countries for nearly three decades, Russia’s annexation of Crimea pushed both towards NATO’s “open door” policy.
    • Still, there was little political consensus in either country, especially in Sweden where the Social Democrats have long been against the idea.
    • However, February 24 changed everything the date on which Russia invaded Ukraine.

    A knee jerk reaction?

    • If Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was meant to deter NATO’s eastward expansion, the war has had the opposite effect.
    • If admitted, Sweden and Finland will become its 31st and 32nd members.

    Russian response

    • Back in March, Russia had evoked a threatening response to take retaliatory measures by stationing its nuclear and hypersonic weapons close to the Baltic Sea.
    • Russia denounced the problems with Finland and Sweden but the NATO’s expansion at the expense of these countries does not pose a direct threat to us.
    • But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory will certainly provoke their response, warned Mr Putin.
    • Sweden had already said it would not allow NATO bases or nuclear weapons on its territory.

    Hurdles for Finland, Sweden

    • At the moment the main obstacle to their applications in Turkey, a member since 1952 and which has NATO’s second-largest army after the US.
    • Turkish president Erdogan has objected to their applications on the ground that the two countries had provided safe haven to the leaders of the Kurdish group PKK.
    • Many Kurdish and other exiles have found refuge in Sweden over the past decades.
    • PKK is an armed movement fighting for a separate Kurdistan, comprising Kurdish areas in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria.
    • Neither of these countries have a clear, open attitude towards terrorist organisation.

    What could Turkey gain?

    • Turkey is expected to seek to negotiate a compromise deal to seek action on Kurdish groups.
    • Erdogan could also seek to use Sweden and Finland’s membership to wrest concessions from the United States and other allies.
    • Turkey wants to return to the US-led F-35 fighter jet program — a project it was kicked out of following its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems.
    • Alternatively, Turkey is looking to purchase a new batch of F-16 fighter jets and upgrade its existing fleet.

    How does this affect Turkey’s image in the West?

    • Turkey is reinforcing an image that is blocking the alliance’s expansion for its own profit.
    • It also risks damaging the credit it had earned by supplying Ukraine with the Bayraktar TB2 armed drones that became an effective weapon against Russian forces.

    Is Turkey trying to appease Russia?

    • Turkey has built close relations with both Russia and Ukraine and has been trying to balance its ties with both.
    • It has refused to join sanctions against Russia — while supporting Ukraine with the drones that helped deny Russia air superiority.

     

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  • A war that is shrinking India’s geopolitical options

    Context

    What was initially assumed in New Delhi to be a quick confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the war in Europe is now raging on with no end in sight, and with its long-term implications yet unknown.

    Why Ukraine war may reduce India’s options

    • For several weeks during late March and April, it seemed as though the Ukraine war presented a number of geopolitical options for New Delhi to choose from.
    • War may limit India’s options: Instead of enhancing New Delhi’s ability to make strategic choices in its broader region, the Ukraine war may actually limit the number of options available to New Delhi for at least three reasons.
    • 1]Absence of Russia for balancing purposes: Russia as a key strategic partner is no longer available to India for balancing purposes.
    • 2] Increased Chinese influence in the region:  Russia’s sudden absence from the Asian balance of power equations has further enhanced Chinese influence in the region.
    • By the time the war ends, whatever may be the shape of the global balance of power, the regional balance of power would have irretrievably shifted in Beijing’s favour.
    • 3] Indo-Pacific region moving out of focus: Given that the United States and its western partners are more interested on the Ukraine theatre today, their focus on China is already taking a hit, if not yet on the Indo-Pacific.

    India’s dilemmas in medium to long term

    1] Managing China

    • Weakened US influence in South Asia: While the Ukraine war has strengthened and revitalised the U.S.-led military and political coalition globally, it is bound to weaken the American influence in the Southern Asian region.
    • China is the biggest beneficiary of the U.S./western retrenchment from the region which gives it a free hand in it.
    • Russia not available: For New Delhi, Moscow is no longer available for its pursuit of its regional interests, and the U.S.’s ability to produce favourable geopolitical outcomes for India in the region is shrinking as well.
    • While there is little doubt that in the longer run, a war-fatigued and weakened Russia will become a junior partner to China, India today does have an opportunity to get Moscow to nudge Beijing to stop its irredentism on the LAC.
    • If the Chinese side, taking advantage of the Ukraine distraction, heats up the LAC, India would have to turn to the West and the U.S. for support (political, diplomatic, intelligence, etc.).
    • This would invariably hurt Russian interests. 
    • Russia, it is important that two of its Asian friends — China and India — do not clash at least while the war is still on.
    • While this may be a useful way to manage the Chinese aggression on the LAC in the short term, this will depend on how China views its dynamics with Russia and that of Russia with India.
    • Herein lies the challenge for India.
    • India’s engagement with Indo-Pacific region: If China were to stabilise the LAC at the nudging of Russia, it would also expect India to go slow on the Indo-Pacific, something India can ill-afford to do.
    • Inability to exploit contradictions: While, under normal circumstances, India could have utilised the many inherent contradictions between Moscow and Beijing, the Ukraine war has suspended those contradictions.

    2] How Ukraine war affected India’s north-western continental strategy

    • India’s north-western continental strategy, in particular towards Afghanistan and Central Asia, too will get complicated due to the Ukraine war.
    • For over a year now, the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan is calm and the violence in Kashmir has come down.
    • More pertinently, New Delhi’s presence from Afghanistan has entirely disappeared.
    • So, it appears that the calm in Kashmir and along the LoC is a quid pro quo for the Indian withdrawal from Afghanistan.
    • If this is a bargain New Delhi accepts, it will not only mean giving up its strategic interests in Afghanistan but also reducing its engagement in the Central Asian region as well at a time China is making feverish inroads into the region, right in the backyard of the Russian sphere of influence.
    • Had Moscow not been caught in the Ukraine war, it would have fended off Beijing’s attempts to take over its backyard (in one sense, China is doing to Russia using economic means what the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been doing to Russia using military means).
    • During the December summit, India and Russia had decided on a number of initiatives focusing on Central Asia and Afghanistan.
    • They are unlikely to be revived anytime soon, ceding further ground to China and Pakistan.

    Conclusion

    The combined geopolitical impact of the ill-timed U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia’s Ukraine war, and the rapid expansion of Chinese influence goes to show how New Delhi’s geopolitical choices have suddenly shrunk due to the Ukraine war.

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  • For a better South Asian neighbourhood

    Context

    Recent developments — in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan — underline the geographic imperative that binds India to its neighbours in the Subcontinent.

    Need for intensive regional cooperation for managing the new dangers

    • Working with the logic of geography has become an unavoidable necessity amidst the deepening regional and global crises accentuated by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
    • As higher oil and food prices trigger inflation and popular unrest across the region, more intensive regional cooperation is one of the tools for managing the new dangers.

    Hope for transcending internal divide between India and Sri Lanka

    • India’s relations with Sri Lanka underline the importance of continuous tending of political geography.
    • Tradition of hosting political exile: India has had a long tradition of hosting political exiles from the region.
    • Whether it was the Dalai Lama from Tibet or Prachanda from Nepal, Delhi has welcomed leaders from the neighbourhood taking shelter in India.
    • Negative consequences: There is a dangerous flip side to this positive tradition in the Subcontinent.
    • India has paid a high price for the decision in the early 1980s to train and arm Sri Lankan Tamil rebels.
    • Hope for transcending internal divide: The current crisis in Sri Lanka raised hopes for transcending the internal ethnic divide in the island nation and rebuilding political confidence between Colombo and Delhi.
    • Material and financial support to Sri Lanka: Delhi’s unstinting support — both material and financial — for Colombo during this unprecedented economic and political crisis has generated much goodwill in Sri Lanka.

    Relations with Nepal and role of cultural ties

    • Possibilities in cultural geography: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Lumbini, the birthplace of Lord Buddha in Nepal, highlights the immense possibilities of cultural geography in reshaping the Subcontinent’s regional relations.
    • The idea of a “Buddhist circuit” connecting the various pilgrimage sites across the India-Nepal border has been around for a long time.
    • India and Nepal have come together in developing the Buddhist circuit.
    • Religion and culture are deeply interconnected in South Asia.
    • Developing all religious pilgrimage sites across the region, and improving the transborder access to them could not only improve tourist revenues of all the South Asian nations, but could also have a calming effect on the troubled political relations
    • That China has built a new airport near Lumbini and Modi is avoiding it points to the turbulent triangular dynamic between Delhi, Kathmandu, and Beijing.
    • Revitalising the shared cultural geography inevitably involves better management of economic geography.
    • Infrastructure development on Indian side: The last few years have seen the Indian government step up on infrastructure development on the Indian side and accelerate transborder transport and energy connectivity in the eastern subcontinent.

    Recent trends in India-Pakistan relations

    • Cultural ties: Despite their frozen bilateral political relationship, Delhi and Islamabad had agreed to open the Kartarpur corridor at the end of 2019 across their militarised Punjab border.
    • There is much more to be done on reconnecting the Subcontinent’s sacred geographies — including the Ramayana trail and Sufi shrines.
    • While parts of the region are aligning their policies with the geographic imperative, Pakistan would seem to be an exception.
    • Ignoring the geographic imperative: Given the depth of its macro economic crisis and massive inflation, one might have thought Pakistan would want to expand trade ties with India in its own economic interest.
    • But Pakistan’s politics are hard-wired against the logic of geography.
    • Delhi had little reason to believe that Pakistan’s new government can alter its self-defeating policy towards India.
    • But it must continue to bet that the geographic imperative will eventually prevail over Islamabad’s policies.

    Conclusion

    Realists might want to argue that current trends in the Subcontinent point to India’s growing agency in shaping its neighbourhood and that Pakistan will not forever remain an exception. For Delhi, the policy question is whether India can do something to hasten the inevitable change in Pakistan.

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