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Subject: International Relations

  • The way forward in Myanmar

    The article discusses the five lessons from past experiences as the international community frames its response to the military coup in Myanmar.

    Coup in Myanmar

    • After Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) swept the polls by winning almost 80% of the vote, Myanmar’s military staged a coup and declared a state of Emergency for a year.
    • Myanmar, which started a fragile transition to democracy 10 years ago after decades of brutal military dictatorship, is back in the hands of the Generals.

    Lessons for the international community

    1) Benefits of sanctions

    • The developments in Myanmar will invariably bring back the old debate around the prudence of sanctions.
    • Notwithstanding the western sanctions before 2010 [during military rule], China, Thailand and Singapore were the key trading partners of Myanmar.
    • The present reality is no different.
    • Singapore was reportedly the largest foreign investor in Myanmar in 2020, accounting for 34% of the overall approved investment.
    • Given that the military has been able to economically withstand sanctions by striking deals with Asian countries in the past, sanctions are unlikely to bring any major political change.

    2) Accountability for crime against humanity

    • As political changes got underway in 2010, many generals were on the radar of the international community for perpetuating a regime of human rights abuses, quietly vanished from the scene.
    • This bred a culture of impunity.
    • During the 2017 Rohingya crisis, senior military officials brazenly exploited social media to mobilise public support for brutality against Rohingyas.

    3) China’s influence

    • Three, a critical international player in Myanmar is China.
    • The international community, particularly the West, has to factor in China’s multi-layered influence on Myanmar.

    4) Revival of past international mechanisms

    • Many international mechanisms comprising Western and Asian countries that were formed to coordinate strategies on Myanmar were disbanded after the 2015 election.
    • That the changes in Myanmar were irreversible was the standard thinking.
    • Relevant actors should be brought on a common platform by reviving past mechanisms.

    5) Increasing the engagement with domestic stakeholders

    • The expectation that Myanmar will see a nationwide protest against the military after the coup should be examined with the geographical extent of Bamar, Myanmar’s largest ethnic group, who support the National League for Democracy.
    • The minorities in the country form around 35% of the population.
    • In the current scenario, the military will continue to exploit ethnic and religious fault lines.
    • Engagement with domestic stakeholders, including ethnic minorities, especially from the north, should be pursued by the international community.

    Consider the question “As military hinders Myanmar’s transition to democracy, what are the factors that should be considered by the international community as it form the response to the situation in the country.”

    Conclusion

    There is one consistent lesson, that no change is irreversible, particularly in a context where military leadership scripted the meaning of democracy, and domestic forces and geopolitics continuously fail to deter its actions and impulses to rule.

  • No to vaccine nationalism, yes to global cooperation

    India has been supplying vaccines to other countries even as its first phase of vaccination covers the health care workers. At the same time, the selfishness of the advanced countries has been on full display by amassing the approved vaccines. The article deals with the issue of vaccine nationalism.

    What is vaccine nationalism

    • When a country manages to secure doses of vaccines for its own citizens or residents and prioritises its own domestic markets before they are made available in other countries it is known as ‘vaccine nationalism’.
    • This is done through pre-purchase agreements between a government and a vaccine manufacturer.
    • The advance purchase contracts made by some advanced countries for potential vaccines would vaccinate their population many times: the European Union, two times, the United States and the United Kingdom, four times, and Canada, six times.

    Impact on the SDGs

    • The reversal of progress on many Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs, such as SDG 3 (“Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages) could affect the health of the world population, and global growth itself.
    • Even before COVID-19, projections have shown that 6% of the global population would be in extreme poverty, which has gone up by 71 million, thereby causing enormous challenges to SDG 1 (“End poverty in all its forms everywhere”).
    • According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, over 50% of emerging markets and developing economies that were converging toward advanced economies per capita income over the last decade are expected to diverge over the 2020-22 period.

    India’s important role

    • While advanced countries have turned their back on the need of poor countries, India has taken a position that a significant percentage of the approved doses will be permitted for exports.
    • While its exports to neighbouring counties will be under grant mode, initial shipment of vaccines to least developed countries will be free of cost.
    • Brazil has received 2 million doses of vaccine from India (as of January 23).
    • While India is in its first phase of vaccination to cover health-care workers, exports from India are helping other countries also in initiating phase one of their vaccination programme — a gesture well-appreciated globally.
    • The ability to produce large volumes of vaccine at an affordable cost underlines India’s importance to developing countries when it comes to drug access.

    Need for coordinated global efforts

    • Due to the vaccine nationalism, the arguments of public good and global cooperation have been widely neglected.
    • Nevertheless, India’s approach only reinforces the need of having coordinated global efforts in bringing COVID-19 under control.
    • This response manifests India’s unstinted commitment to global development and has consolidated its name as the world’s pharmacy.

    COVAX Project: Unique case of global cooperation

    • The COVAX project is a global risk-sharing mechanism for pooled procurement and fair distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.
    • It is based on funding from high and middle-income countries.
    • Since high and middle-income countries are buying up large amounts of the vaccine directly from suppliers, the promise by COVAX to deliver 2 billion doses by the end of 2021 seems to face new challenges.
    • Since most of the vaccines are purchased from the global south [specifically, India and China] for developing nations, the COVAX project can draw new pathways for global development.
    • Most of these vaccines are cost-effective and affordable to the global south.

    Consider the question “What is vaccine nationalism? Examine the role played by India against the backdrop of vaccine nationalism.” 

    Conclusion

    The development of vaccines is a classic story of global cooperation between the North and the South. Unfortunately, the increasing nationalist tendencies of the democratic World during the pandemic have challenged the positive narrative on global cooperation.

  • Iran rules out changes to Nuclear Deal

    Iranian President Hassan Rouhani ruled out changes to Iran’s nuclear accord with world powers and dismissed calls to broaden the terms of the deal and include regional countries.

    Do you know how the enmity between Iran and the US came into reality?  We hope you have watched the Argo (2012) movie for sure!

    What is the news?

    • The election of Joe Biden, who supports a US return to the agreement, has spurred some expectations of renewed diplomacy.
    • But Rouhani’s refusal puts this possibility at the end.

    The United States since 1979 has applied various economic, trades, scientific and military sanctions against Iran. U.S. economic sanctions are administered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control.

    Iranian Nuclear Agreement

    • The Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the US, in July 2015.
    • Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief.

    What were the goals of JCPOA?

    • The P5+1 wanted to unwind Iran’s nuclear program to the point that if Tehran decided to pursue a nuclear weapon, it would take at least one year, giving world powers time to respond.
    • Heading into the JCPOA negotiations, U.S. intelligence officials estimated that, in the absence of an agreement, Iran could produce enough nuclear material for a weapon in a few months.

    Who are the participants?

    • The JCPOA, which went into effect in January 2016, imposes restrictions on Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program.
    • At the heart of negotiations with Iran were the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US) and Germany—collectively known as the P5+1.
    • The European Union also took part.
    • Prior to the JCPOA, the P5+1 had been negotiating with Iran for years, offering its government various incentives to halt uranium enrichment.

    Disruptions after trump

    • The deal has been in jeopardy since President Donald J. Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018.
    • In response to the U.S. departure, as well as to deadly attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020, including one by the United States, Iran has resumed some of its nuclear activities.

    Why isn’t the deal yet enforced?

    • In April 2020, the United States announced its intention to keep back sanctions.
    • The other P5 members objected to the move, saying the US could not unilaterally implement the mechanism because it left the nuclear deal in 2018.
    • Meanwhile, the wide range of U.S. sanctions unrelated to the nuclear program has added to the damage.

     Iran’s current nuclear activity

    • Iran since Trump’s decisions started exceeding agreed-upon limits to its stockpile of low-enriched uranium.
    • It began enriching uranium to higher concentrations (though still far short of the purity required for weapons).
    • It also began developing new centrifuges to accelerate uranium enrichment; resuming heavy water production at its Arak facility.

    Did you know?

     

    Mined uranium has less than 1 percent of the uranium-235 isotope used in fission reactions, and centrifuges increase that isotope’s concentration. Uranium enriched to 5 percent is used in nuclear power plants, and at 20 percent it can be used in research reactors or for medical purposes. High-enriched uranium, at some 90 percent, is used in nuclear weapons.

  • Sri Lanka pushes India out of Colombo Terminal Project

    After the strong opposition from within, the Sri Lankan government was forced to revoke a 2019 agreement with India and Japan to develop the strategic East Container Terminal (ECT) at the Colombo Port.

    Map Reading: Note all these major ports and try recalling their sequences in the clockwise and counter-clockwise direction.

    What is the news?

    • PM Mahinda Rajapaksa made a statement that the operation of the east terminal would be done by Sri Lanka Ports Authority on its own.
    • Its cabinet has approved a proposal to develop the West Terminal at the Colombo Port as a PPP with India and Japan, which is seen as a bid to compensate India.
    • It is unclear whether India would accept the latest proposal.

    What is the Project?

    • The tripartite agreement, signed by India, Sri Lanka and Japan, proposes to develop the ECT, which is located at the newly expanded southern part of the Colombo Port.
    • The ECT is located 3 km away from the China-backed international financial city, known as Port City, currently being built in Colombo.
    • A Chinese company was behind the controversial 2018 Hambantota port project, signed its first contract in the Port City last month.
    • It is also on the map of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

    India’s reaction

    • A few weeks ago EAM S. Jaishankar visited Sri Lanka where he discussed the development of the stalled project.
    • India’s first response was that the island nation should not be taking a decision in a unilateral manner on an existing tripartite agreement.

    Compensatory offer to India

    • After the decision on revoking the 2019 agreement, SL has approved another proposal to develop the west terminal of the Colombo port with Japan and India.
    • Commercially, the west terminal offer is better for India as it gives 85% stake for developers of the West Terminal against the 49% in ECT.

    Sri Lanka expects India to rethink. Why?

    • Indian response to this compensatory offer is unclear since there was no formal communication by SL authorities.
    • Geo-politically, west terminal is almost the same India considers the security aspect and the necessity to have a port terminal in Sri Lanka.
    • There is no difference between East and West Terminals except for the fact that development of the ECT is partially completed while the development of the West Terminal has to start from scratch.

    SL version of the revocation

    • Incumbent PM Mahinda Rajapaksa said the pressure was immense on the President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to cancel the 2019 agreement.
    • The pressure was brewing so much that he was becoming so unpopular among the people.
    • As per the agreement signed by the former Maithripala Sirisena-Ranil Wickremesinghe administration, India and Japan together were to hold 49% stake in ECT.
    • What had finally made the government surrender before trade unions were the increasing support of many more sections in the society for the protests against privatization.

    The inevitable factor: China

    • This move can be easily interpreted as a reaction to Chinese communication to Sri Lanka.
    • China has reportedly instigated trade unions and civil societies against this project.

    Q.The threat of Chinese presence in South Asia can be tackled more effectively if India changes course in its dealings with its neighbours and becomes more sensitive to their concerns. Critically analyse.

    Outcome: Souring of the ties

    • For India, the strategic ECT project was important. Even the EAM has visited Colombo in January in this regard.
    • Critics of the Sri Lankan government anticipate many national and international impacts surrounding the latest decision on ECT.
    • Meantime, internationally an offended India can make life tough for Sri Lanka, isolating the tiny island nation, geo-politically and on the economic front.
    • The economic isolation will not help Sri Lanka at a time when the country is taking steps to revive the economy amid a pandemic.

  • BNO Visas for Hong Kong residents

    Hong Kong residents can apply for a new visa offering them an opportunity to become British citizens after Beijing’s imposition of a national security law last year.

    What is the news?

    • The move comes as China and Hong Kong have said they will no longer recognise the British National Overseas (BNO) passport as a valid travel document from Sunday, January 31.
    • Britain and China have been arguing for months about what London and Washington say is an attempt to silence dissent in Hong Kong after pro-democracy protests in 2019 and 2020.

    What is the British move for citizenship?

    • The scheme, which was first announced last year, allows those with BNO status to live, study and work in Britain for five years and eventually apply for citizenship.
    • BNO is a special status created under British law in 1987that specifically relates to Hong Kong.
    • Britain says it is fulfilling a historic and moral commitment to Hong Kong people after Beijing imposed the security law on the semi-autonomous city.
    • Britain says breaches the terms of agreements under which the colony was handed back to China in 1997.
    • The U.K. government forecasts the new visa could attract more than 300,000 people and their dependants to Britain.

    Chinese stance on the move

    • China says the West’s views on its actions over Hong Kong are clouded by misinformation and an imperial handover.
    • Beijing also said that it would no longer be recognising BN(O) passports, saying that the citizenship offer “seriously infringed” on China’s sovereignty.
    • It is unclear, however, how this could deter Hong Kongers from leaving since city residents are usually known to use Hong Kong passports while leaving for another country.

  • Foreign Minister suggests way forward for India-China ties

    External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has given useful insight on the future of India-China ties amid heating border tensions and has suggested the best way forward.

    Statements made by EAM are major breakthrough in itself. They are the most logical and amply reflect his perfect statesmanship.

    We can imbibe such statements in our answers as they hold extraordinary significance like any gospel.

    Key takeaways from EAM’s speech

    • 2020 was a year of exceptional stress in a relationship profoundly disturbed by the border crisis.
    • China’s actions last year had not only signaled a disregard of commitments to reduce troop levels” but also “a willingness” to breach the peace and tranquillity on the border.
    • For all the disagreements we had, the fact is the border areas still remained fundamentally peaceful with the last incident of a loss of life in 1975, prior to 2020.
    • Until now, India is yet to receive a credible explanation for the change in China’s stance or reasons for its amassing of troops.
    • Any expectation that can be brushed aside and life can carry on undisturbed despite the situation in the border is simply not realistic.

    China’s contentious moves

    • China did a unilateral attempt to redraw the LAC in several areas in eastern Ladakh
    • China’s issuing of stapled visas to Indian citizens from Jammu and Kashmir in 2010
    • Reluctance from China to deal with some of India’s military commands, Beijing had that same year refused to host the Northern Army Commander
    • China’s opposition to India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the U.N. Security Council as a permanent member
    • Blocking of U.N. listings of Pakistani terrorists, and
    • China Pakistan Economic Corridor, a flagship project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, violating India’s sovereignty

    Gone is the past

    • Both sides had “painstakingly” worked to normalize relations after the post-1962 war freeze and the first prime ministerial visit in 1988.
    • For the border areas, he said, both had agreed a complete and practical set of understandings and agreements focused on border management, while negotiations were being conducted on the boundary dispute.
    • The advancement of ties, he said, was predicated on ensuring that peace and tranquillity were not disturbed, and the LAC was both observed and respected by both sides.
    • For this reason, it was explicitly agreed the two countries would refrain from massing troops on their common border, along with a detailed understanding of handling frictions that would arise.

    No progress over the years

    • Over the years, he said, there was no sign of progress of arriving at a common understanding of the LAC, while there was increasing construction of border infrastructure, especially in the Chinese side.
    • India had made efforts to reduce the considerable infrastructure gap since 2014, including through greater budgetary commitments and border road building.

    Way forward

    The External Affairs Minister suggested “three mutuals” and “eight broad propositions” as a way forward for the relationship.

    #Three mutuals

    Mutual respect, mutual sensitivities and mutual interests are the “determining factors”.

    #Major propositions

    (1) Adhering to commitment

    • The first proposition was that agreements already reached must be adhered to in their entirety, both in letter and in spirit.

    (2) Respect for LAC

    • Both sides also needed to strictly observe and respect the LAC, and any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo was completely unacceptable.

    (3) Maintaining peace and tranquillity

    • Peace and tranquillity in border areas was the basis for the development of the relationship in other domains. If that was disturbed, he said, the rest of the relationship would be too.

    (4) Broader partnership

    • The fourth proposition was that while both remain committed to a multipolar world, they should recognise that a multipolar Asia was one of its essential constituents.

    (5) Reciprocity

    • While each state had its interests, concerns and priorities, sensitivities to them could not be one-sided and relations were reciprocal in nature. As rising powers, neither should ignore the other’s set of aspirations.

    (6) Divergences management

    • While both sides had made a common cause on development and economic issues and common membership of plurilateral groups was a meeting point, there were divergences when it came to interests and aspirations.

    (7) Civilizational ties

    • The last proposition was that as civilizational states, India and China must always take the long view.

    (8) Cooperation and competition

    • Even before the events of 2020, the relationship had reflected a duality of cooperation and competition.

  • Myanmar’s Military Coup

    Myanmar’s military staged a coup detaining de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and declaring it had taken control of the country for one year under a state of emergency.

    Q.Despite its military coup, Myanmar is the key in linking South Asia to Southeast Asia and the eastern periphery becomes the focal point for New Delhi’s regional outreach. Analyse.

    What is the news?

    • The intervention came with rising tensions between the military, which ruled the country for nearly five decades, and the civilian government over allegations of fraud in November’s elections.
    • The military had signaled its intentions to seize power to settle its claims of irregularities in the polls, which Suu Kyi’s party won easily.

    How was the coup carried out?

    • The military detained the leaders of the governing NLD party and Myanmar’s civilian leadership, including Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, along with various ministers and even the opposition.
    • The military quickly seized control of the country’s infrastructure, suspending most television broadcasts and canceling all domestic and international flights, according to reports.
    • Telephone and internet access was suspended in major cities.
    • The stock market and commercial banks were closed, and long lines were seen outside ATMs in some places.
    • In Yangon, the country’s largest city and former capital, residents ran to markets to stock up on food and other supplies.

    Who is Aung San Suu Kyi?

    • Suu Kyi came to power as state councilor in 2016 after the country’s first fully democratic vote in decades.
    • Her ascension to leadership was seen as a critical moment in the transition of Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, to democracy from military dictatorship.
    • Suu Kyi, the daughter of the country’s independence hero General Aung San, spent more than 15 years under house arrest.
    • Her time in detention made her an international icon, and she was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991.
    • Since her release, her reputation has been tarnished by her cooperation with the military and her deadly campaign against the Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic minority group.

    India’s response to the takeover

    • India is “deeply concerned” with the return to military rule, which is a repeat of events thirty years ago.
    • It sees only option to engage, building on its outreach in recent years via the security and defence establishment.
    • India seeks a more pragmatic approach, engaging the military while pushing for more freedoms and democracy in Myanmar.

    Various issues concerning India

    • One important reason for the change is that India’s security relationship with the Myanmar military.
    • These days, it has become extremely close, and it would be difficult to “burn bridges” with them given their assistance in securing the North East frontiers from insurgent groups.
    • Apart from strategic concerns, India has cultivated several infrastructure and development projects with Myanmar, which it sees as the “gateway to the East” and ASEAN countries.
    • These include the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multi-modal transit transport network, as well as a plan for a Special Economic Zone at the Sittwe deep-water port.

  • What is EDISON Alliance?

    The World Economic Forum (WEF) has announced the launch of an Essential Digital Infrastructure and Services Network (EDISON) Alliance.

    The peculiarity of name ‘EDISON Alliance’ creates a hotspot here for prelims.  UPSC may either crate confusion over purpose or parent organization. The alliance is yet to take shape completely; hence there is an ambiguity over its members.

    EDISON Alliance

    • Geneva-based World Economic Forum (WEF), which describes itself as an international organization for public-private partnership, will serve as the secretariat and platform for the EDISON Alliance.
    • A wider group of ‘Champions Leaders’ will advise and support the Alliance, the WEF said while announcing the launch.
    • Alliance aims to work towards ensuring global and equitable access to the digital economy.
    • Its prime goal is to ensure an unprecedented level of cross-sectoral collaboration between the technology industry and other critical sectors of the economy, according to the WEF.

    Why need such an alliance?

    • Access to digital technologies has enabled many to work, learn and live during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • However, the pandemic has exposed and exacerbated existing gaps and inequalities in almost half of the global population.
    • Some 3.6 billion people, remain offline and broadband services are too expensive for 50 percent of the population in developed countries, the WEF said.
    • This hampers access to health, education, and economic inclusion.

  • What is the G20 Common Framework?

    Chad has become the first country to officially request a debt restructuring under a new common framework “G20 Common Framework” introduced by China and other Group of 20 countries last year with the help of the Paris Club.

    What is G20 Common Framework?

    • G20 Common Framework is the Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI).
    • It was announced in November 2020 to deal with the issue of unsustainable debts faced by various countries as an impact of COVID-19.

    What is the news?

    • This official request of Chad for debt restructuring under the G20 common framework was notified by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
    • The creditors will now soon begin discussions on the first test of the new framework.
    • The creditors will also ask China and other private-sector creditors to participate as agreed last year.
    • A new four-year programme of Chad worth about $560 million under the Extended Credit and Extended Fund facilities was announced by IMF.
    • Chad is under high debt like many other African countries.

    Significance of the move

    • This is the first time that a country has requested debt restructuring under the framework and the investors will now look at how the framework can work.
    • Participation in China is also a question. Last year, G20 Common Framework brought non-members of the Paris Club- India, China, and Turkey to join the framework.

    Back2Basics: Paris Club

    • Paris Club is a club or group of officials from major creditor countries.
    • It was established in the year 1956.
    • It aims to find sustainable solutions to the difficulties faced by debtor countries in payments.

     

  • US-Russia to extend New START Treaty

    The Russian lower house of Parliament, the Duma has ratified a new START nuclear treaty with the US.  Both countries had “agreed in principle” to extend the arms treaty by five years with Joe Biden swearing-in.

    The New START, INF and the Open Skies …. Be clear about the differences of these treaties. For example- to check if their inception was during cold war era etc.

    New START Treaty

    • The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) pact limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads, missiles and bombers and is due to expire in 2021 unless renewed.
    • The treaty limits the US and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, well below Cold War caps.
    • It was signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
    • It is one of the key controls on the superpower deployment of nuclear weapons.

    A reset to Trumps policies

    • In February 2020, the US withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), accusing Moscow of violating the agreement.
    • Russian then had proposed a one-year extension without conditions of the last major nuclear arms reduction accord, the New START Treaty between Russia and the U.S.
    • If it had fallen, it could have been the second nuclear weapons treaty to collapse under the leadership of Trump.