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Subject: International Relations

  • Building political consensus on climate change

    With the victory of Joe Biden in the U.S. Presidential election geopolitics of the climate change is headed for a new reset. The article examines the role India could play in the changing geopolitical realities and also spells out the challenge for India.

    India’s role in geopolitics of climate change

    • India is probably better prepared than in the past when India was widely seen as part of the problem on climate issues.
    • But the urgency of addressing climate change is likely to intensify for two reasons:
    • 1) The election of Biden as US President.
    • 2) The prospect of cooperation on climate change between Washington and Beijing.
    • India’s ability to influence the new geopolitics of climate change will depend a lot on its domestic political resilience in adapting to the new imperatives.
    • While a democratic India struggles to deal with the new internal conflicts centred on climate, China has crafted a new template of “coercive environmentalism”.
    • The Chinese model of coercive environmentalism is finding an echo among some Western environmentalists.
    • Whatever the merits of authoritarian environmentalism, it has little political chance of being replicated in democracies.

    Cooperation on climate change between the US and China

    • Modernising liberal environmentalism is the essence of president-elect Biden’s commitment to integrating the climate question with the domestic policy agenda.
    • “Climate justice” is another important objective of Biden’s domestic environmental policy.
    • It is based on the recognition that pollution and other ecological problems have a greater impact on the poor and minorities.
    • Although coercive and liberal approaches to managing climate change are different, the US and China share some important objectives.
    • Both China and the US (along with the West) recognise the urgency of the challenge.
    • Beijing and Washington are also racing to develop new technologies that will constitute the foundations of the green economic future.
    • Both have zeroed in on industrial policy to achieve their climate objectives.
    • For Xi and Biden, gaining the leadership of the global movement for mitigating climate change is a strategic mission.
    • Washington and Beijing understand that climate politics is in the end about rearranging the global order.
    • Consequently, the new direction of Chinese and US policies (in partnership with Europe and Japan) will inevitably put pressure on other states for climate actions.

    Conclusion

    India’s real test on climate change is on building a new domestic consensus that can address the economic and political costs associated with an internal adjustment to the prospect of a great global reset.

  • UN removes Cannabis from ‘Most Dangerous Drug’ Category

    The United Nations Commission on Narcotic Drugs (CND) voted to remove cannabis and cannabis resin from Schedule IV of the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs, decades after they were first placed on the list.

    Q. Too much de-regulation of Cannabis could lead to its mass cultivation and a silent economy wreaking havoc through a new culture of substance abuse in India. Critically analyse.

    What is Cannabis?

    • Cannabis, also known as marijuana among other names, is a psychoactive drug from the Cannabis plant used primarily for medical or recreational purposes.
    • The main psychoactive component of cannabis is tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), which is one of the 483 known compounds in the plant, including at least 65 other cannabinoids, including cannabidiol (CBD).
    • It is used by smoking, vaporizing, within the food, or as an extract.

    UN’s decision and India

    • Currently in India, the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act, 1985, illegalizes any mixture with or without any neutral material, of any of the two forms of cannabis – charas and ganja — or any drink prepared from it.
    • The WHO says that cannabis is by far the most widely cultivated, trafficked and abused illicit drug in the world. But the UN decision could influence the global use of medicinal marijuana,
    • India was part of the voting majority, along with the US and most European nations.
    • China, Pakistan and Russia were among those who voted against, and Ukraine abstained.

    Cannabis in India

    In India, cannabis, also known as bhang, ganja, charas or hashish, is typically eaten (bhang golis, thandai, pakoras, lassi, etc.) or smoked (chillum or cigarette).

    Under international law

    • The Vienna-based CND, founded in 1946, is the UN agency mandated to decide on the scope of control of substances by placing them in the schedules of global drug control conventions.
    • Cannabis has been on Schedule IV–the most dangerous category– of the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs for as long as the international treaty has existed.

    Fuss over Cannabis

    • Cannabis has various mental and physical effects, which include euphoria, altered states of mind and sense of time, difficulty concentrating, impaired short-term memory and body movement, relaxation, and an increase in appetite.
    • But global attitudes towards cannabis have changed dramatically, with many jurisdictions permitting cannabis use for recreation, medication or both, despite it remaining on Schedule IV of the UN list.
    • Currently, over 50 countries allow medicinal cannabis programs, and its recreational use has been legalized in Canada, Uruguay and 15 US states.

    Impact of the decision

    • The reclassification of cannabis by the UN agency, although significant, would not immediately change its status worldwide as long as individual countries continue with existing regulations.
    • The decision would add momentum to efforts for decriminalizing cannabis in countries where its use is most restricted, while further legalizing the substance in others.
    • Scientific research into marijuana’s medicinal properties is also expected to grow.
    • Legalising and regulating cannabis will “undermine criminal markets” as well as its smuggling and cultivation.

    Risks of Legalizing Cannabis

    (1) Health risks continue to persist

    • There are many misconceptions about cannabis. First, it is not accurate that cannabis is harmless.
    • Its immediate effects include impairments in memory and in mental processes, including ones that are critical for driving.
    • Long-term use of cannabis may lead to the development of addiction of the substance, persistent cognitive deficits, and of mental health problems like schizophrenia, depression and anxiety.
    • Exposure to cannabis in adolescence can alter brain development.

    (2) A new ‘tobacco’ under casualization

    • A second myth is that if cannabis is legalized and regulated, its harms can be minimized.
    • With legalization comes commercialization. Cannabis is often incorrectly advertised as being “natural” and “healthier than alcohol and tobacco”.
    • Tobacco, too, was initially touted as a natural and harmless plant that had been “safely” used in religious ceremonies for centuries.

    Way ahead

    • It’s important to make a distinction between legalization, decriminalization and commercialization.
    • While legalization and decriminalization are mostly used in a legal context, commercialization relates to the business side of things.
    • For India to liberalise its policy on cannabis, it should ensure that there are enough protections for children, the young, and those with severe mental illnesses, who are most vulnerable to its effects.

  • Places in news: Bhashan Char Island

    Bangladesh has transported more than 1,600 Rohingya refugees to a low-lying island in the first phase of a controversial planned relocation of 1,00,000 people.

    Can you see, what the so-called champions of tolerance and human rights doing to the refugees in their own country!

    Bhashan Char Island

    • Bhasan Char also known as Char Piya, is an island in Hatiya, Bangladesh.
    • Located 34 kilometres (21 miles) from the mainland, its name in Bengali means “floating island.”
    • The island was formed with Himalayan silt in 2006 spanning 40 square kilometres.
    • It is underwater from June to September annually because of the monsoon, and it has no flood fences.
    • In June 2015, the Bangladeshi government suggested resettling Rohingya refugees on the island under its Ashrayan Project.
    • The proposal was characterized by the UN Refugee Agency as “logistically challenging”.

    Extraditing to another hell

    • Bhashan Char is a flood-prone island that emerged from the sea 20 years ago.
    • The refugees had been coerced into going to this flood-prone island which is also vulnerable to frequent cyclones.
    • This compact island is too small to occupy and nurture the Rohingya population and there is chronic overcrowding in camps.

  • Geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East and consequences for Indian subcontinent

    Three broad trends emerging from the Middle East and its implication for the region have been discussed here.

    Growing vulnerability of Iran and implications for subcontinent

    • The brazen murder of a top Iranian nuclear scientist highlights the Islamic Republic of Iran’s growing strategic vulnerabilities.
    • This geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East has major consequences for the subcontinent.
    • Whether they want to or not, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh must deal with three broad trends that define the new Middle East.

    3 Trends in the Middle East

    1) Iran’s growing isolation

    •  The Trump administration and the Republicans, Israel and the Gulf Arabs have a shared interest in preventing the next US President from renewing nuclear diplomacy with Iran and ending Tehran’s isolation.
    • The assassination of Fakhrizadeh is about achieving that political objective.
    • If Iran retaliates vigorously, it will invite an all-out confrontation with Israel and the US.
    • Holding back will expose Iran’s weakness and sharpen internal divisions between pragmatists who want to engage the US and the hardliners.
    • The frequent attacks on high-profile Iranian targets indicate hostile penetration of its society such that domestic opponents of the regime are now willing to collaborate with foreign security agencies, including Israel’s Mossad.
    •  Iran’s internal political weakness is compounded by the massive economic pain imposed by the Trump administration through sanctions.
    • Iran has much goodwill in South Asia, but India and its neighbours have no desire to get sucked into Tehran’s conflicts with the Arabs or the US.

    2)  Transformation of Arab relations with Israel

    • The fear of Iran has been driving Gulf Arabs to embrace Israel.
    • In the last few months, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have normalised ties with Israel.
    • There is speculation of an impending normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
    • Pakistan’s Prime Minister has talked of pressure, apparently from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, on recognising Israel.
    • If Pakistan recognises Israel, Bangladesh would not want to be left behind.
    • Economic and technological collaboration with Israel will give Bangladesh’s economy and foreign policy a big boost.
    • For Israel, having Bangladesh and Pakistan, two of the world’s largest Islamic nations, recognise it would be a great ideological and political bonus
    • An India that proclaims the virtues of engaging all sides in the Middle East can’t grudge the same privilege for Israel in South Asia.

    3) Rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Turkey

    • While Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE want to return the Middle East towards political and religious moderation, the once secular Turkey has become the new champion of political Islam.
    • Turkey’s contestation with Saudi Arabia is already having an impact on India and Pakistan.
    • Turkey is now hostile to India and has joined Pakistan in taking up the Kashmir question at international forums.
    • For Pakistan, this seemed a useful counter to the Gulf Arabs, who were ramping up strategic ties with India.
    • However, UAE and Saudi Arabia have the option to put massive costs on the Pakistani economy that can’t be plugged by Turkey or Malaysia.

    Conclusion

    Although India has made some important adjustments to its engagement with the Middle East in recent years, Delhi can’t take its eyes off the rapid changes in the region.

  • Recalibrating India-Nepal ties

    The article suggests the need for a relook at the India-Nepal ties in the changing geopolitical circumstances. 

    Unchanging perspective on of each other

    • Many in Nepal continue to equate being anti-India with being nationalistic.
    • Politicians and political parties whip up such sentiment especially before an election.
    • Prime Minister K.P. Oli won the 2017 election partly because he projected himself as someone who stood up to India during the blockade.
    • He again whipped up nationalistic sentiments when he got the Nepal map amended to add new territory.
    • India continues to think that by providing aid and development projects in Nepal, it can win Nepali hearts.
    • But despite pouring billions of rupees into Nepal over decades, it has still not been able to do so.
    • Therefore, it needs to reflect on what it is not doing right.

    India’s aid Vs Chines aid to Nepal

    • Two issues are important to understand here.
    • First, all aid to Nepal from countries other than India and China go through the Plans of the Government of Nepal.
    • Indian aid is seen in Nepal as a favour bestowed on a constituency it wants to garner support from rather than a contribution to Nepal’s planned development.
    • Second, India competes with China in providing aid outside government budgets.
    • And China picks up projects of visibility and strategic location.
    • Chinese involvement in Nepal has increased since the April 2015 earthquake and Nepal is surely an area of strategic influence in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

    People-to-people ties

    •  In the past two decades, two significant changes have happened.
    • 1)  Indian workers in Nepal constitute a big part of the workforce and send about $3 billion to India every year.
    • In terms of remittances to India, Nepal ranks eighth.
    • So, the Government of India needs to keep in mind that many households in India are being run with remittances from Nepal.
    • 2) Nepalis have migrated in the past 20 years to more than a hundred countries; India is not the only country that Nepalis rely on for jobs or education.
    • This is a new Nepal comprising young people with global aspirations.
    • Meanwhile, Nepal needs to plan how it engages with the youth in mainland India for whom Nepal is just like Bangladesh or Myanmar.

    Consider the question “The unchanging perspective of each other in both countries calls for the recalibration of India-Nepal ties. Examine the factors that India should consider while having a relook at its ties with Nepal”

    Conclusion

    There are some fundamentals that we simply cannot forget: geography will not change, the border will remain open as millions of livelihoods on both sides depend on it, and China is going to be a big global player with varied interests in the neighbourhood. Therefore, the India-Nepal relationship has to be recalibrated.

  • India and the OIC

    India has hit out at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) for making factually incorrect and unwarranted references to Jammu and Kashmir.

    What is OIC?

    • The OIC — formerly Organisation of the Islamic Conference — is the world’s second-largest inter-governmental organisation after the UN, with a membership of 57 states.
    • The OIC’s stated objective is “to safeguard and protect the interests of the Muslim world in the spirit of promoting international peace and harmony among various people of the world”.
    • OIC has reserved membership for Muslim-majority countries. Russia, Thailand, and a couple of other small countries have Observer status.

    India’s relationship with OIC

    • At the 45th session of the Foreign Ministers’ Summit in 2018, Bangladesh suggested that India, where more than 10% of the world’s Muslims live, should be given Observer status.
    • In 1969, India was dis-invited from the Conference of Islamic Countries in Rabat, Morocco at Pakistan’s behest.
    • Then Agriculture Minister Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed was dis-invited upon arrival in Morocco after Pakistan President Yahya Khan lobbied against Indian participation.

    Recent developments

    • In 2019, India made its maiden appearance at the OIC Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Abu Dhabi, as a “guest of honour”.
    • Then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj addressed the Inaugural Plenary.
    • This first-time invitation was seen as a diplomatic victory for New Delhi, especially at a time of heightened tensions with Pakistan following the Pulwama attack.
    • Pakistan had opposed the invitation to Swaraj and it boycotted the plenary after the UAE turned down his demand to rescind the invitation.

    What is the OIC’s stand on Kashmir?

    • It has been generally supportive of Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir and has issued statements criticizing India.
    • These statements over the last three decades became an annual ritual, of little significance to India.
    • Last year, after India revoked Article 370 in Kashmir, Pakistan lobbied with the OIC for their condemnation of the move.
    • To Pakistan’s surprise, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — both top leaders among the Muslim countries — issued nuanced statements, and were not as harshly critical of New Delhi as Islamabad had hoped.
    • Since then, Islamabad has tried to rouse sentiments among the Islamic countries, but only a handful of them — Turkey and Malaysia — publicly criticised India.

    How has India been responding?

    • India has consistently underlined that J&K is an integral part of India and is a matter strictly internal to India.
    • The strength with which India has made this assertion has varied slightly at times, but never the core message.
    • It has maintained its “consistent and well known” stand that the OIC had no locus standi,
    • This time, India went a step ahead and said the grouping continues to allow itself to be used by a certain country “which has a record on religious tolerance, radicalism and persecution of minorities”.

    OIC members and India

    • Individually, India has good relations with almost all member nations. Ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, especially, have looked up significantly in recent years.
    • The OIC includes two of India’s close neighbours, Bangladesh and Maldives.
    • Indian diplomats say both countries privately admit they do not want to complicate their bilateral ties with India on Kashmir but play along with OIC.

    What lies ahead with OIC?

    • India now sees the duality of the OIC untenable, since many of these countries have good bilateral ties and convey to India to ignore OIC statements.
    • But these countries sign off on the joint statements which are largely drafted by Pakistan.
    • South Block feels it is important to challenge the double-speak since Pakistan’s campaign and currency on the Kashmir issue has hardly any takers in the international community.

  • Killing of Iranian nuclear scientist and its implications

    The assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientist has implication for the future of JCPOA and the peace and the stability of the region. The article explains why.

    Context

    • Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian scientist who led Iran’s nuclear weapons programme until it was disbanded, was assassinated last week.

    JCPOA and U.S. Presidential election’s link with the

    • Assassinations in which Israeli hands were suspected had stopped after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed.
    • The U.S. withdrew from the agreement when Trump became the U.S. President.
    • In retaliation of the withdrawal, Iran began enriching uranium and stockpiling it beyond JCPOA limits.
    • With that, the strategy of targeted assassinations seems to be back.
    • This strategy has assumed urgency with the election of Joe Biden in the U.S., who has expressed his desire to return to the JCPOA.

    Understanding the Israel link

    • Israel government is apprehensive that Mr. Biden will imperil Israel’s nuclear monopoly in West Asia.
    • The assassination of Fakhrizadeh appears to be part of a larger Israeli plan in conjunction with Saudi Arabia to force the U.S. into taking military action against Iran.
    • An Israeli-Saudi nexus on this issue, when combined with President Trump’s, could culminate in a major military strike on Iran before he leaves office.

    Win-win situation for Israel

    • If the Iranian government launches revenge attacks Mr. Netanyahu would be able to persuade the U.S. to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
    • If Iran shows restraint, Israel would have shown up the Iranian regime as weak while augmenting anti-American feelings in the country.
    • That anti-American feeling would make it difficult for the Biden administration to resume negotiations with Tehran on reviving JCPOA.

    Conclusion

    The fallout of the assassination, while benefiting Israel, will add to the instability in the region.

  • vaccine nationalism

    Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the weaknesses in the multilateralism which is best exemplified by the race among countries for getting access to the vaccine.

    Business out of pandemic

    • It is a crime against humanity to make a profit during any human tragedy.
    • The COVID-19 pandemic is also a human tragedy and needs global solidarity.
    • However, in a liberalised economy, there is a shocking silence in the global market trying to do business out of human suffering
    • This is where organisations of the United Nations and global networks for people should come together in one voice.
    • WHO’s idea of a “voluntary pool to collect patent rights, regulatory test data for developing COVID-19 therapies, vaccines, and diagnostics” was met with criticism.

    How to ensure equitable access to vaccine

    • The advance purchase agreements that some countries have negotiated with pharmaceutical companies exemplify the rich grabbing everything first trends.
    • Such vaccine nationalism undermines equitable access to vaccines. 
    • There has to be prioritisation for high-risk groups in all countries.
    • That framework has to be accepted by the global community without dispute.
    • In this, the COVAX partnership is a mechanism for ensuring that.
    • GAVI, or the Global Alliance for Vaccine Initiative, was in existence during the pre-COVID-19 period to ensure the pooled procurement and equitable supply of life-saving vaccines to low- and middle-income countries.
    • It has been roped in for the COVID-19 vaccine too.

    Role of the governments

    • World Health Organization Director-General exhorted member countries to treat COVID-19 technologies as a “public good”.
    • If it is a public good, governments must step in to regulate its development, innovation, manufacture, sale, and supply ultimately to the public.
    • If such an idealistic outcome does not materialise based on basic human rights then some regulation mandated by the UN General Assembly must be thought of.
    • Through the Paris Convention for the Protection of Industrial Property, the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) and the Doha Ministerial Conference declaration 2001, the WTO made provisions for compulsory licensing. 

    Consider the question “Vaccine nationalism has consequences for cooperation on the global problem. Examine the issue of vaccine nationalism and suggest ways to ensure equitable distribution”

    Way forward

    • Compulsory licensing is an extreme step available with India if rich countries go for advance purchase and hoarding of a COVID-19 vaccine produced in India by multinational pharma companies and deny India’s supply needs.
    • COVID-19 vaccine candidates are still in Phase 3 trials; the compulsory licence clause cannot be applied.
    • So, coercion to issue “voluntary licensing” to subsidiary companies in many developing countries such as India, Egypt, Thailand and Brazil by the patent holder is another option.
    • India and South Africa jointly sent out a communication, to the IPR Council of the WTO for a waiver of the protection of copyright, design, trademarks and patent on COVID-19 related technologies including vaccines.
    • If this is decided favourably as a special case considering the unprecedented impact of the pandemic, it will set a precedent.
    • Global campaigns through the media and civil society organisations can garner enough momentum to exert pressure on TRIPS.

    Conclusion

    Having nothing less than vaccines and life-saving medicines being treated as a public good must definitely be the long-term goal.

  • South Asian University

    The Delhi-based South Asian University, established by all eight SAARC countries, has not had a president for over a year, while its executive council and governing board have not met for almost two and three years respectively.

    Note the features of SAARC, ASEAN and East Asia Summit.

    South Asian University

    • South Asian University (SAU) is an International University sponsored by the eight Member States of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
    • The eight countries are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
    • India, as the host and the largest country in the SAARC group, bore the entire capital cost for setting up the university, and also pays 50% of the operational costs.
    • SAU attracts students predominantly from all the eight SAARC countries, although students from other continents also attend.
    • There is a country quota system for admission of students. Every year SAU conducts admission test at multiple centres in all the eight countries.
    • The degrees of the university is recognised by all the member nations of the SAARC according to an inter-governmental agreement signed by the foreign ministers of the eight-member states.

    Institution on failure

    • After a decade of existence, the university has yet to appoint a non-Indian president, despite rules stipulating a rotation among the member countries.
    • At a time when the Union government is trying to encourage international education in India, an existing international institution is facing a crisis of leadership.

    A matter of reluctance

    • According to the agreement signed by all the SAARC countries, the first president should have been from India, and then rotated among the other countries in alphabetical order.
    • So the next president should be from the Maldives.
    • But the MEA has put an advertisement calling only for Indian applicants, but there has been no appointment after one year.

  • Time for an Asian Century

    Asian centrality

    • China’s response is a ‘dual circulation’ strategy for self-reliance and military-technological prowess to surpass the U.S.
    • The global governance role of the U.S. is already reduced.
    • The U.S. now exercises power with others, not over them.
    • Despite its military ‘pivot’ to Asia, the U.S. needs India in the Quad, to counterbalance the spread of China’s influence through land-based trade links.
    • India, like others in the Quad, has not targeted China and also has deeper security ties with Russia.
    • With the ASEAN ‘code of conduct’ in the South China Sea, both the security and prosperity pillars of the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific construct will be adversely impacted.
    • Leveraging proven digital prowess to complement the infrastructure of China’s Belt and Road Initiative will win friends as countries value multi-polarity.

    Atmanirbhar Bharat and Challenges

    • ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ will leverage endogenous technological strength, data and population.
    • With the Rafale aircraft purchase, India has recognised that there will be no technology transfer for capital equipment.
    • Military Theatre Commands should be tasked with border defence giving the offensive role to cyber, missile and special forces based on endogenous capacity, effectively linking economic and military strength.
    • The overriding priority should be infrastructure including electricity and fibre optic connectivity; self-reliance in semiconductors, electric batteries and solar panels; and skill development.

    Conclusion

    There are compelling geopolitical and economic reasons for shaping the building blocks of the Asia-led order, which is not yet China-led, to secure an ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’, and place in the emerging triumvirate.