The Ministerial Session of the eighth edition of Delhi Dialogue, the pre-eminent annual Track 1.5 dialogue process for brainstorming on all aspects of the ASEAN-India relationship, took place in the evening of 18 February 2016 at New Delhi.
We will talk at lengths on the ASEAN-India relationship as we develop our introductory series on IR for IAS further, but today let’s understand diplomacy in its tracks!
Traditionally, the term “diplomacy” referred to interaction between nation-states. More recently, however, scholars have delineated several levels of diplomacy. Tracks 1 and 2 are the most frequently used terms.
Official discussions typically involving high-level political and military leaders and focusing on cease-fires, peace talks, and treaties and other agreements. Heads of states meet, have hi-tea, discuss issues and release joint statements etc.
#2. Track 2 Diplomacy:
Unofficial dialogue and problem-solving activities aimed at building relationships and encouraging new thinking that can inform the official process.
Since it is unofficial – you can expect to see influential academic, religious, and NGO leaders and other civil society actors who can interact more freely than high-ranking officials. Think of Baba Ramdev and Amir Khan trying to chit chat with officials of Pak Foreign ministry, cajoling them into buying an idea (hopefully for more peace and er. yoga!)
Here’s where we see the emergence of term – Track 1.5 to denote a situation in which official and non-official actors work together to resolve conflicts. Read this press release from MEA in the light of this definition – Ministerial Session of Delhi Dialogue VIII
#3. Track 3 Diplomacy:
People-to-people diplomacy undertaken by individuals and private groups. It would not be further from truth if we say that the “aam aadmi” of India does not really hate his counterpart at Pakistan. Beyond the media and political blur, there are a lot of initiatives which get people closer (do we hear bollywood).
Pakistan loves our films and actors, we love their cuisine and musicians!
Normally focused at the grassroots level, this type of diplomacy often involves organizing meetings and conferences, generating media exposure, and political and legal advocacy for marginalized people and communities.
#4. Multitrack Diplomacy:
A term for operating on several tracks simultaneously, including official and unofficial conflict resolution efforts, citizen and scientific exchanges, international business negotiations, international cultural and athletic activities, and other cooperative efforts.
The aim of this post is to give you a bird’s eye view of what is usually asked in IAS Mains. Don’t fear the IR monster but be cautious about preparing it well.
Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests
Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.
Important International institutions, agencies and fora, their structure, mandate
Topic: India and its neighborhood – relations
Mains 2015 –
Q. Project `Mausam’ is considered a unique foreign policy initiative of the Indian Government to improve relationship with its neighbors. Does the project have a strategic dimension? Discuss. <China as Neighbour, considered special relevance to ques, China’s Maritime silk route and answer to string of pearls>
Q. Terrorist activities and mutual distrust have clouded India-Pakistan relations. To what extent the use of soft power like sports and cultural exchanges could help generate goodwill between the two countries? Discuss with suitable examples. <Shiv Sena protests over Ghulam Ali’s concert>
Mains 2014 –
Q. With respect to the South China sea, maritime territorial disputes and rising tension affirm the need for safeguarding maritime security to ensure freedom of navigation and overflight throughout the region. In this context, discuss the bilateral issues between India and China. <Remember Chinese claims, 9 dashed line [Spratlys claim] – Tension in south china sea> < The most cliched issue in foreign policy>
Mains 2013 –
Q. The proposed withdrawal of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) from Afghanistan in 2014 is fraught with major security implications for the countries of the region. Examine in light of the fact that India is faced with a plethora of challenges and needs to safeguard its own strategic interests. <India’s large geostrategic and geoeconomic interests in Afghanistan>
Q. What do you understand by ‘The String of Pearls’? How does it impact India? Briefly outline the steps taken by India to counter this. <Chinese dominant intentions in the Indian Ocean region><The most cliched issue>
Q. The protests in Shahbag Square in Dhaka in Bangladesh reveal a fundamental split in society between the nationalists and Islamic forces. What is its significance for India? <Very much in news, similar to Arab spring>
Q. Discuss the political developments in Maldives in the last two years. Should they be of any cause of concern to India? <Arrest of president Nasheed, cancellation of GMR deal, Indian diplomacy found wanting>
Q. In respect of India — Sri Lanka relations, discuss how domestic factors influence foreign policy. <PM’s refusal to attend CHOGM summit in SL over DMK’s blackmail was the immediate context for the question>
Q. What is meant by Gujral doctrine? Does it have any relevance today? Discuss. <I.K.Gujral died on nov. 30th 2012, expected question>
Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests
Mains 2015 –
Q. Increasing interest of India in Africa has its pros and cons. Critically examine. <Largest gathering of African leaders in Oct, 2014 in New Delhi>
Q. The aim of Information Technology Agreements (ITAs) is to lower all taxes and tariffs on information technology products by signatories to zero. What impact should such agreements have on India’s interests? <It was on the plurilateral agenda in the upcoming WTO talks to be held after mains exam, proves importance of cursory newspapers to follow evolution of topics even a day before mains or following newscards in 15 minutes daily>
Q. Some of the International funding agencies have special terms for economic participation stipulating a substantial component of the aid to be used for sourcing equipment from the leading countries. Discuss on merits of such terms and if, there exists a strong case not to accept such conditions in the Indian context. <JICA funding DMIC require sourcing content from Japan>
Mains 2013 –
Q. Economic ties between India and Japan while growing in the recent years are still far below their potential. Elucidate the policy constraints which are inhibiting this growth.
Important International institutions, agencies and fora, their structure, mandates
Mains 2015 –
Q. Discuss the impediments India is facing in its pursuit of a permanent seat in UN Security Council. <Very much in news due to starting of text based negotiations on security council reforms in september>
Mains 2014 –
Q. India has recently signed to become founding a New Development Bank (NDB) and also the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). How will the role of the two Banks be different? Discuss the significance of these two Banks for India. <In the news, proliferation of multilateral development banks, role complementary, supplementary or competitive>
Q. WTO is an important international institution where decisions taken affect countries in profound manner. What is the mandate of WTO and how binding are their decisions? Critically analyse India’s stand on the latest round of talks on Food security. <Static portion related to dispute settlement mechanism with dynamic part being WTO decision on Indian poultry import ban from US and India’s domestic content requirement for solar panels>
Mains 2013 –
Q. The World Bank and the IMF, collectively known as the Bretton Woods Institutions, are the two intergovernmental pillars supporting the structure of the world’s economic and financial order. Superficially, the World Bank and the IMF exhibit many common characteristics, yet their role, functions and mandate are distinctly different. Elucidate. <Static, repeat question from previous year mains paper>
Moral of the story?
IR constitutes a very important part of GS paper 2 and and also GS paper 3 (cross cutting themes of terrorism and internal security challenges in border areas having linkages with neighbouring countries) with 5 to 6 very doable questions being asked every year.
Questions are mostly from current hot trending topics.
Knowledge of static content helps in understanding the issue better and filling in the answer but there’s no requirement of PHD in historical aspects of relationships.
International organizations are important for prelims as well so do static part of international organizations well.
IR forms quite an important portion of the GS Paper 2 syllabus – UPSC Syllabus | GS Paper 2 | IAS Prep. In this post, we are going to analyse this portion, answer some basic doubts and help you get started with IR.
After this introductory post, jump onto the compiled collection on International Organisations – Click here
#1. Why do IAS aspirants tend to neglect IR?
Because it is so overwhelmingly dynamic
Not much of an importance in prelims
For a beginner, the pain point with IR is a general lack of familiarity with the subject matter. It is very less likely that one could/would Modi Ji’s entourage in real time. The deals and negotiations, the untimely withdrawal from strategic talks and the bold diplomatic parley etc. seem so overwhelming that we look skywards! Without a proper backstory, these developments look disconnected.
Besides, when would we be mugging the articles for polity or read about those eloping monkeys for environment & biodiversity, haan?
Add to that, prelims is not really bullish about the complexities of inter country relations, hence aspirants tend to leave IR for the end of time.
Confronted by these practical issues, we are going to relook the IR portion of IAS Mains (GS Paper 2) and World Affairs (Prelims) to try and help you get familar with them.
#2. Official UPSC Syllabus of International Relations (IR) for GS Paper II
India and its neighborhood – relations
Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests
Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.
Important International institutions, agencies and fora, their structure, mandate
#3. Deconstructing IR – What are you exactly supposed to prepare for?
You are not supposed to do a PHD in IR. That’s for sure. Why this red flag? The flipside of preparing sincerely for UPSC is that sometime the subject matter becomes so appealing that you start to get drawn into it. You tend to lose a sense of space and time and inadvertently step into the shoes of a hardcore foreign policy analyst (which is not what UPSC wants you to be!)
Reading about the genesis of ASEAN and taking note of its evolution trajectory is great but getting into the thick of each meeting with micro-analysis on the terms of agreements may leave you with a lot lesser time to prepare for other subjects.
Focus on two things – Get the context and remember the facts correct!
[Get the context] India and the world: Catch up with the backstory and look out for conflicts
As an aspirant, you are expected to think through the changing scenario, understand the evolution and weigh the pros and cons of a treaty/ diplomatic move which disrupts the status quo. Easier said than done, right?
Understand India’s backstory first
To get upto speed with the backstory, you may try to get your hands on Pax Indica by Shashi Tharoor. This will do good to bring you upto speed with our past with most of the important nations. Doing this increases your odds of understanding the current affairs with some context. Alternatively, we will also try to come up with short anecdotal pieces wrt our evolution with our neighbours and the world.
Once you are comfortable with that, look out for latest conflicts and controversies which shape our negotiations with various bilateral, regional and global groupings. UPSC is going to pick up one of these and grill you on that!
[Remember the facts] Important institutions, International groupings: Find out why they exist and you will be comfortable with them
The problem with these venerated organisations and groupings is that there are so many of them and they are ever so evolving! Don’t believe us? Here’s an example –
1975: Group of 6 – FMs and central bank governors from France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States
1976: Group of 7 – G6 + Canada
1997: Group of 8 – G7 + Russia (in 1997) + European Union (considered an implicit part)
2014: Group of 7 – Russia suspended after Crimean crisis
There is a Group 20 (G20) as well but we will come to that. Point being that to understand this jugglery well, you need to know each organisation and its evolution in full and then connect the dots as they intersect with each other.
This part of the IR makes up for a lot of prelims related questions – Remember a question on Mekong Ganga Cooperation in Pre 2015?
We plan to cover each of these organisations, starting ASIA first so that you get a sense of their origins, members, evolution and conflicts and most of all, their reason of existence!
#4. Tackle the low hanging fruits first!
All pumped up? Let’s get you familiar with some of the questions from IR @Mains (2013 – 2015) in the next post.
Post that, we will be tackling the journey of important regional and international organisations which affect India’s interest in some way or the other. These are important both wrt prelims and mains. UPSC has an uncanny habit of asking for member countries or important reports and you have got to prepare well for that!
Know about some basic terminologies used in this context
Refugee: A refugee is someone who has been forced to leave their country in order to escape war, persecution or natural disaster.
Asylum: It is a protection granted by a state to someone who has left their home country as a political refugee.
Migrant: A person who choose to leave their home state, principally in search of a better life. It is a voluntary choice and not a involuntary act. They do not enjoy any protection under international law.
Special Status of Refugees
They enjoy certain special protections under the law:
Safety from being deported to the country where they face persecution
Protection of basic human rights without radical or religious discrimination or of national origin
Access to fair and efficient asylum procedures
Provision of administrative assistance
Know the Refugees: Statistics & Countries
According to International Organisation for Migration, 3.5 lakh migrants and refugees have tried to cross the Mediterranean sea into Europe. Almost 2500 died in Mediterranean sea during first half of 2015.
Refugees are mostly from West Asia comprising of war-torn countries like Syria, Iraq and Libya. West Asia was used by the political powers in Europe and US to serve their political interest in the name of supporting pro-democratic forces, ending in promoting radical groups and thus destabilizing it.
The unending civil conflict in Afghanistan and decline in socio-economic conditions in Pakistan has further fueled the crisis.
Why refugees are migrating to Europe?
First of all, Europe is economically prosperous, socially secure and presence of better immigration laws makes it a perfect destination for refugees.
But, it is not alone the brighter side of Europe, but the adverse condition in the home country, which are outside the control of common people, leading to mass migration.
Refugee vs. Migrant debate in Europe
This comes in the backdrop of UN forecast that about 3000 people per day will try to reach Europe in the next few months, which has worried European policy makers. The European powers had increased patrolling around the Mediterranean sea and security in the border areas.
Europe is portraying the refugees as economic migrants i.e. those who are in search of better life
They consider the influx of people as a threat to standard of living and social structure of Europe
The main reason for such portrayal is that migrants do not enjoy any protection and privileges under international law, while refugees do
Lessons for India: Need for a coherent domestic asylum policy
India is neither a signatory to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention nor it has a domestic asylum framework/National Asylum law. Interestingly, none of South Asian countries are signatories to the refugee convention.
Reason: There is a fear that if govt. does any of the above, it might lead to influx of refugees. Already, it is finding difficulty in tackling illegal migration from Bangladesh.
However, India has repeatedly stated its commitment to protect refugees. The country has also signed a number of international conventions that have a bearing on its obligation to refugees. Some of legal rights are available to refugees as well. For instance, RTE applies to all children in India, including refugees. Refugees can take the benefit of govt. health services, justice system, etc.
Future
Germany has shown some solidarity with the refugees by granting asylum to 8 lakh people. However, France and Britain have shown signs of reluctance and resorted to tightening of asylum rules. The failure to reach a consensus on the refugees, will lead to the guilty of not being able to live up to European values.
19 April 1951: European Coal and Steel Community Treaty signed by Germany, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Belgium and Netherlands. May 1952: European Defence Community (EDC) Treaty. August 1954: France rejects the EDC treaty. 25 March 1957: Treaties of Rome signed: creates Common Market / European Economic Community (EEC) and European Atomic Energy Community. 1 January 1958: Treaties of Rome come into effect.
1960s
1961: Britain tries to join the EEC but is rejected. January 1963: Franco-German Treaty of Friendship; they agree to work together on many policy issues. January 1966: Luxembourg Compromise gives majority vote on some issues, but leaves national veto on key areas. 1 July 1968: Full customs union created in the EEC, ahead of schedule. 1967: British application again rejected. December 1969: Hague summit to “relaunch” the Community, attended by heads of state.
1970s
1970: Werner Report argues economic and monetary union possible by 1980. April 1970: Agreement for EEC to raise own funds through levies and customs duties. October 1972: Paris Summit agrees plans for future, including economic and monetary union and ERDF fund to support depressed regions. January 1973: UK, Ireland and Denmark join. March 1975: First meeting of the European Council, where heads of state gather to discuss events. 1979: First direct elections to European Parliament. March 1979: Agreement to create the European Monetary System.
1980s
1981: Greece joins. February 1984: Draft Treaty on European Union produced. December 1985: Single European Act agreed; takes two years to ratify. 1986: Portugal and Spain join. 1 July 1987: Single European Act comes into effect.
1990s
February 1992: Maastricht Treaty / Treaty on European Union signed. 1993: Single Market begins. 1 November 1993: Maastricht Treaty comes into effect. 1 January 1995: Austria, Finland and Sweden join. 1995: Decision taken to introduce the single currency, the Euro. 2 October 1997: Treaty of Amsterdam makes minor changes. 1 January 1999: Euro introduced in eleven counties. 1 May 1999: Treaty of Amsterdam comes into effect.
2000s
2001: Treaty of Nice signed; extends majority voting. 2002: Old currencies withdrawn, ‘Euro’ becomes sole currency in majority of EU; Convention on the Future of Europe created to draw up constitution for larger EU. 1 February 2003: Treaty of Nice comes into effect. 2004: Draft constitution signed. 1 May 2004: Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovak Republic, Czech Republic, Slovenia join. 2005: Draft constitution rejected by voters in France and the Netherlands. 2007: Lisbon Treaty signed, this modified the constitution until it was deemed a sufficient compromise; Bulgaria and Romania join. June 2008: Irish voters reject Lisbon Treaty. October 2009: Irish voters accept Lisbon Treaty. 1 December 2009: Lisbon Treaty comes into effect. 2013: Croatia joins. 2016: United Kingdom votes to leave.
The European Union has seven institutions: the European Parliament, the Council of the European Union, the European Commission, the European Council, the European Central Bank, the Court of Justice of the European Union and the European Court of Auditors.
The European Council gives direction to the EU and convenes at least four times a year. It comprises the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission and one representative per member state; either its head of state or head of government.
The European Council has been described by some as the Union’s “supreme political authority”. It is actively involved in the negotiation of the treaty changes and defines the EU’s policy agenda and strategies.
The European Council uses its leadership role to sort out disputes between member states and the institutions and to resolve political crises and disagreements over controversial issues and policies.
The European System of Financial Supervisors is an institutional architecture of the EU’s framework of financial supervision composed by three authorities: the European Banking Authority, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and the European Securities and Markets Authority.
To complement this framework, there is also a European Systemic Risk Board under the responsibility of the ECB.
The aim of this financial control system is to ensure the economic stability of the EU.
The European Parliament allows the citizens of the EU to participate directly in European political affairs. The citizens of the 28 member states appoint their deputies in the national elections for a five-year period. These deputies are to represent the interests of their electors on a European level. The latest elections (by direct universal suffrage) took place in May 2014.
The European Commission (EC) is an institution of the European Union, responsible for proposing legislation, implementing decisions, upholding the EU treaties and managing the day-to-day business of the EU. Commissioners swear an oath at the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg, pledging to respect the treaties and to be completely independent in carrying out their duties during their mandate. The Commission operates as a cabinet government, with 28 members of the Commission (informally known as “commissioners”).
The Court of Justice of the European Union is the Union’s only body of a legal nature. It is a sort of legislative watchdog in charge of verifing the interpretation and the application of community legislation.
Importance of EU:
The European Union is our largest trading partner, and our largest export destination. And it is our largest source of Foreign Direct Investment.
However, India’s exports to EU in 2014-15 had shrunk (-) 4.4 per cent year on year to $49.3 billion. Imports from EU had also contracted (-) 1.5 per cent in 2014-15 to $49.2 billion.
Deadlock in Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BITA)
The BTIA negotiations have remained deadlocked over growing differences regarding greater market access sought by both sides for merchandise exports.
EU’s main Demands
EU has been keen on reducing or abolishing tariffs in several sectors, including in the automobile and wine and spirits sectors.
India’s import duty on cars are between 60 and 120 per cent as against the EU’s 10 per cent.
The EU is keen that India should adopt stringent IP protection standards even if that means going beyond the WTO specified standards.
The problem of India’s model BIT
India’s new model bilateral investment treaty (BIT) is another major contentious issue, especially for foreign investment.
Given the experiences of major European companies such as Vodafone and Cairn, who are battling the imposition of retrospective taxes by India, the EU is deeply concerned about the protection of itsinvestments in India.
India’s main demands
India’s main demands on data security status (crucial for India’s information technology sector to do more business with the EU firms), easier temporary movement of skilled professionals and seamless intracorporatemovement.
The EU should do away with their non-tariff barriers that seem to have been erected mainly to protect some of their local firms but not as much for better safety or quality.
India has also sought agricultural market access in the EU as well as disciplining of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (norms related with plants and animals) and Technical Barriers to Trade.
Other major issues between India and EU:
Human rights violation: One of the ostensible reasons for stalled talks between the European Union (EU) and India had been the EU concern over human right violations in India.
Italian marines case has also played a spoiler in the EU-India relationship.
Arbitrary Ban: In August 2015, India had deferred FTA over the EU imposing a ban on sale of around 700 pharma products.
13TH INDIA-EU SUMMIT
The 13th EU-India Summit was held in Brussels on March 2016.
Outcome of summit:
The 13th India-EU Summit concluded in Brussels without a consensus on a bilateral free trade deal even as progress was made in bilateral cooperation in other fields — from foreign policy to outer space.
Following arethe major outcomes of the summit:
EU-India Agenda for Action-2020
India and the European Union (EU) have endorsed the ‘EU-India Agenda for Action 2020’ as a common road map for the strategic partnership in the next five years.
Foreign Policy and Security Cooperation: Strengthen foreign policy cooperation, in areas of mutual interest such as Asia, Africa, the Middle East/West Asia, Europe, and other relevant areas.
Security: Strengthen cooperation and work towards tangible outcomes on shared objectives of nonproliferation & disarmament, counter-piracy, counter-terrorism (including counter -radicalization) and cyber security.
The two sides agreed to cooperate in countering violent extremism, disrupt recruitment of terrorists and prevent the free passage of foreign fighters.
They have also agreed to explore the possibility of India and EUROPOL, the EU law enforcement agency, to share intelligence.
The Common Agenda on Migration and Mobility (CAMM), which was also adopted, is designed to control and organize migration a pressing concern for the EU.
The Agenda also includes the prevention of human trafficking and promoting international protection as priority areas.
Joint Declaration on an India-EU Water Partnership (IEWP): The objective of this Joint Declaration is to strengthen technological, scientific and management capabilities of India and the EU in the field of water management on the basis of equality, reciprocity and mutual benefit.
Joint Declaration on a Clean Energy and Climate Partnership.
Both sides agreed to further the negotiations on early conclusion of the BTIA.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) signed an agreement with India to release the first tranche of 200 million euros of its total 450 million euros loan towards the construction of the Lucknow Metro’s first line.
Challenges before EU:
Eurozone crisis- The root of this problem is lied in the formation in EU itself. Crisis in one country affects the other countries as well, and now many countries in EU are facing economic crisis(PIGS countries) and it has affected other prosperous countries like France and Germany as well.
Refugee crisis– Situated aside Mediterranean sea, it has become a destination for many refugees who left their home from West Asia and North Africa due to troubled conditions in these regions. the influx of so many refugees has created problems related to higher economic burden in already suffering europe, law and order problem, ethnic clashes between natives and migrants etc.
Problem of extremism- The rise of ISIL and the recent attacks in Paris and Belgium has exposed the vulnerabilities of youths in europe towards extremist ideologies as the attacks were happened with no outside supports.
Huge number of refugees and migrants have been shifting to Europe, from many countries like Syria, particularly since 2011. They see Europian Union (EU) as their asylum. With more number of refugees coming in at a time when the natives don’t want any more, the whole situation has developed into a crisis. This crisis is called European Refugee Crisis.
The refugees are not only from Syria!
More than 5 Lakh people have crossed to Europe by sea and land. Most of them are from Syria – troubled not only by civil war, but also by the most violent and inhumane atrocities by ISIS. But Syria is not the single source. They come from areas such as the Middle East (Syria, Iraq), Africa (Eritrea, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, Gambia), South Asia and Central Asia. According to International Organisation for Migration (IOM) statistics, a substantial number of refugees are also from Afghanistan and Pakistan too due to unending civil conflicts in these countries.
The phrase “European migrant crisis” became widely used in April 2015, when five boats carrying almost two thousand migrants to Europe sank in the Mediterranean Sea, with a combined death toll estimated at more than 1,200 people.
Migrants and Refugees – Statistics
According to UNHCR, the UN’s refugee agency, 59.5 million people were forcibly displaced in 2014 which again rose considerably in 2015.
A record number of 1,07,500 migrants reached the borders of European Union in recent months.
Between 2000 and 2015, around 30, 000 have perished along these borders.
This figures stand as a witness that this crisis didn’t started only after ISIS emerged. The increasing number of unaccompanied minors seeking asylum in Europe is seen as a dangerous growing trend among refugees. In 2014 alone around 24,000 unaccompanied minors applied for asylum. Many of the children who arrive are at the age group of 15 to 17 with no formal schooling adding more headaches to host countries.
The European Response to Migrant Crisis
Germany and the EU have been pushing for other EU members to work out a plan for asylum seekers. Britain leads among countries which strictly rejects it. The Right-Wing PM of Hungary has appealed to refugees not to try and cross into Hungary which has fenced its borders with razor wire. Bulgaria, Czech, Slovakia and Poland all are reluctant in taking of refugees making the situation grave.
Germany is expected to give green signal to almost 1 million applicants for asylum. After extensive criticisms by Media on Refugee crisis, EU has started to take few favourable steps.
Initially Europe greeted immigrants with barbed wires, tear gas and police brutality. Only after huge outcry across International media and from human rights and progressive organisations within Europe, eased the curbs on refugees.
Aylan: Another incident which helped to garner pro- refugee sentiments was photo of dead child Aylan on a beach. A mishap happened from his father who accidently dropped him from an overcrowded boat while trying to escape. These photos send jitters across world and thanks to social media which made sure that this photo was seen by everyone who has an account.
Also Pope Francis statement that every Church in Europe should take a refugee family has given hope to many that it may change the mood in European Right Wing’s mind.
Countries have started to take more refugees peacefully now. European people have been welcoming refugees with water, food, shoes and blankets. Though Italy, Greece and Hungary are the frontline countries of reception, most sort after destinations are Germany, Sweden, Austria and Switzerland.
Why Europe?
Europe is the most preferred destination for the people from this war conflicted regions as its economically prosperous, socially secure and has friendly immigration laws.
Mostly it’s not because refugees are opportunists that they walk to EU but it’s due to dangerous situation they and their families has to live. Endless wars, conflicts have ruined their countries political, economic and social equilibrium.
Also it’s surprising why GCC countries never have been helpful or receptive to refugee crisis especially when it’s happening in their backyard. Rich countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar has to play more pro- active roles in this situation. So obviously Europe as nearest land seems to be their immediate hope to go as they can trek or use boats or ships to reach.
Macro level causes for Refugee Crisis
West: A short and quick look into history will show you that countries who are responsible for this situation are the ones who have to bear pain of this crisis i.e Europe or to put in a cliché ‘West’ inclusive of US. Middle East can be said as the holy grail of West since oil was accidentally found by two American gentlemen in Saudi Arabia. No doubt it was a boon to natives and even to millions of Asian and African immigrants to Middle East but also it paved the way to unending geo-political crisis across the region. Before finding oil just like Asia and Africa European colonialism had sucked all its wealth and when time came to leave the place like everywhere, Imperial powers left without solving issues created by them mainly land disputes within neighbours. Example is Israel and Palestine issue.
Dictatorship regimes and Islamic fundamentalism: Continuous dictatorship type regimes and Islamic fundamentalism made Middle East most volatile n disturbed place on the planet. Western powers in order to make their oil supply smooth and to be part of Gulf Boom started in early 80’s always took a partial stand on these issues.
Shia-Sunni divide: Another villain to already worsened situation was Shia-Sunni divide among people, society and regimes which led to many conflicts. This reason has led many natives to flee as refugees in the past from Palestine, during Iraq-Iran war, Iraq-Kuwait war etc.
Wars: This refuge crisis has given Europe a reality check on its wars on many regions of MENA (Middle East and North African region). Wars on these lands didn’t ease the situation even though they were able to kill or defeat dictator leaders. By war, infrastructure and liveable conditions of already abysmal level got more deteriorated. These resulted natives of these lands to search green pastures which happened to be Europe and hence started Refugee crisis.
Democracy movements and civil war: Present refugees crisis didn’t started yesterday but it has been seen a huge surge from Libya conflict. If we go again back refugee problem as a crisis started from US, UK joint war to liberate Iraq.
ISIS: Emergence of ISIS just sky rocketed the whole thing. Western powers in a way failed to bring stable regimes to these lands. People in a way got sandwiched between atrocities of ISIS or ineffective regimes backed by West on one side and on the other side hunger, poverty and tyranny. Only way to survive for them was to initiate long walk towards Europe! Thus started one of the biggest Exoduses ever seen in history.
Adding fuel to fire
Saudi Arabia has been attacking and bombing Yemen.
Asylum denied refugees may join ISIS.
Turkey’s intolerance with Kurds
Syrian Conflict have been going on for 4 years but why suddenly this crisis?
War in Syria against ISIS is not getting any better. It made Syrians to leave their country to Turkey which is closest and they thought once war is over, they can return.
Even though Turkey has taken 2 million refugees, it’s not a country for people to stay in the long run as Right to work for refugees are not legal yet. Also new regime of Turkey is also not quite favourable to refuges as previous government. It has made refugees reluctant to go to Turkey.
UN organisations working with millions of refuges in Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon are running short of funds to keep up the relief work and expenses of camp making people to think of going to Europe. Similar is the situation among UN camps catering to the needs of refugees in Eastern Europe.
Many people have saved required money to use legally or illegally to get into Germany.
People have familiarised with the route via Balkan to trek to EU.
EU countries have been sitting as a lame duck all this year’s talking, discussing on refugee crisis without sensing urgent need of a solution or to deal with such a situation.
Still EU should understand that what they are facing now is just a tip of iceberg compared to neighbouring countries of Syria when it comes to dealing with refugees.
Conclusions with Possible Solutions
West in a way with its narrow minded Foreign Policy have destabilized West Asia and Middle East and now cannot show their back on refugee crisis.
Europe should include US which has been largely elusive on whole issue till now.
GCC countries should involve more in accepting refugees. It’s a blunder what Saudi Arabia is doing right now by attacking and bombing Yemen currently which will only add more refugees.
If Europe is going to push back the refugees, the situation will be more vicious. Such a stupidity will increase the chances of refugees joining with ISIS as they won’t have any other options to survive.
Turkey should end its anonymity with Kurds and involve them more into finding a solution and to defeat ISIS.
Assad regime should be made more accountable.
Include Russia and organise an all-out war against ISIS.
Finding a formula based solution which will end all tyranny is not practical but it’s time that Europe and US sit together and re-check their neo imperialistic and double faced foreign policies in West Asia and Middle East.
Also Western powers should stop Saudi Arabia from funding Wahhabis ideology being spread in Middle East society which is resulting in more Islamic fundamentalism helping organisations like ISIS and Boko—Haram.
To all those who oppose to support refuges,“Recognize yourself in he and she who are not like you and me.” – Carlos Fuentes.
INDIA-GERMANY
Introduction
Bilateral relations between Germany and India are based on a sound foundation of mutual respect, understanding and support. The cooperation between both countries covers a wide range of areas from political action and growing economic exchange to landmark cultural events.
It is complementary as India and Germany both contribute their particular and unique strengths to this truly strategic partnership.
The relationship, based on common values of democracy and rule of law has gained significantly in strength in the 1990s following India’s economic liberalization and the end of cold War. The strategic partnership between India and Germany gained light with the signing of Germany and India cooperate closely on the issue of UNSC expansion within the framework of G-4.
Historical Background
The history of Indo-German political relations goes back to the late nineteenth century, when the ‘Imperial German Consulate’ (Kaiserlich Deutsches Generalkonsulat) started operating from Calcutta (now Kolkata).
As one of the first countries, India diplomatically acknowledged and accepted the Federal Republic of Germany after the end of the Second World War in 1945. The diplomatic recognition of Germany by the Indian government smoothened the way for a long lasting and continuous relationship for over 60 years up to the present day.
Thus, in 1951, the Indian Union and Germany decided to establish economic relationships to gear up their partnership. With that in mind, the Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru made his first visit to post-war Germany and its first Chancellor Konrad Adenauer (Christian Democratic Union – CDU) in the same year.
Also, Germany established its Consulate General in Bombay (now Mumbai) in 1951, leading of the establishment of a full-fledged Embassy in New Delhi in 1952
Importance of Germany for India
India and Germany share strong bilateral relations extending over economic, cultural and security issues–ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE
Germany is the largest trade-partner of India in Europe.
Germany’s importance can be traced from the fact that India has announced a Fast-Track mechanism for German Companies in the DIPP.
Germany’s looks forward to employ young Indian labour to overcome its demographic deficit.
–STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
India and Germany seek a permanent seat with veto powers at the United Nations Security Council and have joined with Japan and Brazil to co-ordinate their efforts via the G4 collective.
–SECURITY IMPORTANCE
Technologically advanced Germany can contribute a lot to India to strengthen its security programs. Currently, both nations are holding meetings on Counter-Terrorism and Cyber-Dialogues.
Germany supports India’s membership to NSG and MTCR(Missile Technology and Control Group.
–ROLE OF GERMANY IN INDIA’s RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR
Germany has invested heavily in the Green Energy Corridors Partnership and has extended co-operated in the India-Germany Solar Energy Partnership which can help India achieve its target of 175 GW by 2022.
Germany has also extended its help to India’s National Electric Mobility Mission which can reduce the dependence on the fossils.
German Economy
Germany – the fifth largest economy in the world in PPP terms and Europe’s largest – is a leading exporter of machinery, vehicles, chemicals, and household equipment and benefits from a highly skilled labor force German Economy contracted by 5.1% in 2009 but grew by 3.6% in 2010, and 3.1% in 2011.
The recovery was attributable primarily to rebounding manufacturing orders and exports – increasingly outside the Euro Zone. The worsening euro-zone financial crisis and the financial burden it places on Germany as well as falling demand for German exports has made domestic demand a more significant driver of Germany’s economic expansion.
Economic Relations
Germany is India’s most important trading partner within the European Union and the sixth most important trading partner in worldwide comparison. Since the beginning of the Indian reform policy in 1990, the bilateral trade volume has risen from 2.7 billion Euro to 16 billion Euro in 2014.
Germany is the 8th largest foreign direct investor in India since 2000. German FDI in India during the period 1991-February 2015, was valued at US$ 8.25 billion. German FDI in India in 2014 was to the tune of US$ 1.15 Indian investments in Germany have also shown a remarkable increase in the last few years and have invested over US $ 6 billion in Germany, mainly through M&As.
In the first 7 months of 2015, the bilateral trade volume compared to the previous year rose by 13%. German exports rose by 17.5%, while imports from India rose by 8,1%. The German trade surplus of around 1.9 billion Euro in 2014 is based on a high demand for German capital goods.
These are machinery that amount to a third of German exports to India, as well as electronic technology, metal ware, chemicals, automobiles and automotive parts. Indian exports to Germany consist mainly of textiles, chemicals, electronic technology, metal ware, leather and foods.
Angela Merkel Visit to India 2016
Bilateral relations between the Republic of India and the Germany have been traditionally strong due to commercial, cultural and technological co-operation. German Chancellor Angela Merkel travelled to India for the Third Indo- German Inter-Governmental Consultations.
A total of 18 agreements were signed, which covered a wide range of topics — from skill development to education, science and technology to aviation.
Highlights of the visit
Germany returned to India a 10th century Durga idol that had gone missing from a temple in Kashmir over two decades ago.
“Fast-track clearance mechanism”:
In a bid to attract German investment, India decided to set up a “fast-track clearance mechanism”. The only other such country-specific mechanism is for Japan.
The fast-track system for German companies will be taken care of by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), and will become operational by March 2016.
The two leaders also underlined the importance of freedom of navigation in international waters and the right of passage and other maritime rights in accordance with international law, in an apparent reference to growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.
Germany has expressed its inability to sign the Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT) with India, citing its provision for “death penalty” for heinous crimes and terror activities.
India and Germany agreed to resume talks towards a free trade agreement between Asia’s third-largest economy and the European Union.
Germany is India’s largest trading partner in the E.U. and one of the top ten global trading partners.
The overall exchange of goods and services between the two countries was valued at around around 15.96 billion euros last year, a drop of €1.14 billion from the level of €16.10 billion registered in 2013.
German Chancellor highlighted problems that German businesses have faced in operating in India, and hoped that the new agreement for a special “fast-track” mechanism would help them secure licences and clearances expeditiously.
Cooperation in clean energy:
The two countries agreed on the India Germany Climate and Renewable Energy Alliance — a comprehensive partnership to harness technology, innovation and finance in order to make affordable, clean and renewable energy accessible to all.
Germany has committed to providing an assistance of over 1 billion Euros for India’s Green Energy Corridor and a new assistance package of over 1 billion Euros for solar projects in India.
Germany is India’s “natural ally”
India’s natural partners would be countries that, on the one hand, do not compete with it either in the Market place or in power politics, and, on the other, have something to offer India that it lacks.
By assisting India in the quest for development and geo-economic growth, Germany has the opportunity to bolster their own rise in geopolitical terms.
Germany has surplus capital, modern technology and a demographic deficit.
India has a deficit of capital, lacks modern technology and has exportable human capital.
UN Security Council reform
Germany and India are vigorously pursuing UN security reform along with Japan and Brazil.
INDIA AND FRANCE
Relations between India and France have traditionally been close and friendly. With the establishment of strategic partnership in 1998, there has been a significant progress in all areas of bilateral cooperation. President François Mr. Hollande was Chief Guest at the Republic Day parade.
The relationship is based on shared values and real convergence on a whole range of regional and global issues.
France was the first country with which India entered into an agreement on Civil Nuclear Cooperation.
France has consistently supported India’s increasing role in international fora, including India’s permanent membership of the UNSC.
Trade relation
India-France trade hovers around $8 billion, which is half of India’s trade with UK or Germany. A big reason for this is the impasse in India’s economic relations with the European Union.
More than a thousand French companies have a total investment of about $20 billion in India.
Strategic partnership
In the post-Cold War period, France was the first country with which India established a ‘strategic partnership’. The only major Western power that described the U.S. as a “hyperpuissance” (hyperpower) and openly espoused the virtues of multi-polarity found a natural ideological convergence with India’sambitions of seeking strategic autonomy.
After the nuclear tests in May 1998, when India declared itself a nuclear state, France was the first major power to open talks with the country.
The strategic dialogue has been institutionalized at the level of National Security Advisors, and covers nuclear, defence, space and counter-terrorism, cyber security issues.
These have been given a boost by the agreement on intelligence-sharing and cooperation on investigations and judicial processes.
Rafale deal
India would buy 36 of the fighter planes in flyaway condition, citing critical operational requirements of the Indian Air Force.
The two countries have signed a MoU on purchase of Rafale fighter jets.
Nuclear agreement
The Jaitapur project, where French company Areva is to set up six nuclear reactors with a total power generation capacity of about 10,000 MW, has been stuck for long because of differences over the cost of the power generated.
Both countries have decided to clear the logjam by splitting the problem into different silos — allowing for separate mechanisms for the pricing issues and for the technical and legal aspects.
Solar energy
French President inaugurated the interim Secretariat of the International Solar Alliance at Gurgaon.
The French Development Agency will allocate for the development of solar energy €300 million over the next five years.
The International Solar Alliance, envisaged to bring together 122 countries that lie wholly or partly between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, is an initiative announced by Mr. Modi at the COP 21 Summit in Paris in November 2015. The member countries are to be those that enjoy 300 or more days in a year of bright sunlight.
INDIA AND ITALY
Italian marine case
An international arbitration tribunal has ruled that Italian marine can return to Italy until it decides a dispute raised by Italy about India’s jurisdiction to try him and his colleague for the killing of two Indian fishermen in February 2012.
Subsequent to tribunal ruling, The Supreme Court ruled that Girone (Italian marine) can return to Italy while an international tribunal decides on a jurisdictional issue between India and Italy. The Supreme Court laid down conditions for releasing Mr. Girone.
He continues to remain under the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court and report to the local police station in Italy once every month. Also, the Italian authorities will keep the Indian embassy informed.
Envoy’s responsibility: The Italian Ambassador will take the responsibility of ensuring his return within a month in case the tribunal rules in favour of trial in India.
Background of the Case
Two Italian marines-Massimiliano Latorre and Mr. Girone are facing the charge of murdering two Indian
fishermen in 2012 off the Kerala coast.
Italy position
The Italian position is that the two marines positioned on board a merchant tanker, theEnrica Lexie, had opened fire to thwart what they perceived as a pirate attack 20.5 nautical miles off Kochi.
It is further argued that the death of the two Indian fishermen occurred in the course of the discharge of their operational duties, and hence functional immunity could be invoked as related to the militarypersonnel of any nation.
Italy argues that the case should not be heard in India because the incident occurred in international waters.
India’s position
India has steadfastly rejected Italian argument and has invoked its sovereign right to prosecute the accused under the provisions of Indian law.
International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS)
In June 2015 Italy approached the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) in Hamburg.
The tribunal is adjudicating only on the limited question of whether India or Italy has the jurisdiction to try the two marines.
In August 2015 ITLOS ordered that: “Italy and India shall both suspend all court proceedings and refrain from initiating new ones which might aggravate or extend the dispute submitted to the Annex VII arbitral tribunal or might jeopardise or prejudice the carrying out of any decision which the arbitral tribunal may render.”
Subsequent to the ITLOS ruling, both parties agreed that the dispute would be resolved under the UNCLOS tribunal.
May 2, 2016: A U.N. arbitration court rules that India should release Italian marine Salvatore Girone.
International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS)
It is an intergovernmental organization created by the mandate of the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea. It was established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, signed at MontegoBay, Jamaica, on December 10, 1982.
The tribunal is based in Hamburg, Germany.
The Tribunal has the power to settle disputes between party states.
INDIA-UK
Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first Indian prime minister to visit the UK in almost a decade.
The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to working together to build such an enhanced and transformative partnership for the betterment of their two countries and the world.
India and the U.K. announced an enhanced defence and strategic partnership as well as a civil nuclear agreement
Both countries for the first time, jointly pushing for the UN comprehensive convention on international terrorism (CCIT), and strengthening strategic cooperation and intelligence-sharing through annual consultations.
£9.2 Billion of commercial deals between the UK and India announced during the visit and listed in the annex.
Both countries announced three UK-India city partnerships with Indore, Pune and Amravati to support India’s ambitious urban development goals through technical assistance, expertise sharing and business engagement.
Both countries have launched a new Thames/Ganga partnership for healthy river systems. This partnership will consist of a collaborative programme of research and innovation to enable the sustainable management of water resources in the Ganga basin and a policy expert exchange in 2016 supported by the UK Water Partnership.
Announcement of setting up of joint India-UK Vaccine Development collaboration between the Department of Biotechnology and Research Councils, UK.
Trade and investment
U.K. is the largest G20 investor in India, while India invests more in the U.K. than the rest of the European Union combined. India has also emerged as the third largest source of FDI for the U.K. Indian companies employ 110,000 people in the UK.
Foreign direct investment inflows from Britain to India between April 2000 and March 2016 were worth $23.1 billion. The UK has accounted for 8.56% of total foreign direct investment in India during the last 15 years.
Bilateral trade has stalled at the level of $ 15-16 billion.
Visa issue
India has conveyed its concerns to the UK authorities about the new British immigration law that will impact professionals earning below 35,000 pounds annually.
Thousands of Indians and other nationals from outside the European Union (EU) living and working in Britain on a tier-2 visa may have to leave or be deported if they earn less than €35,000 a year once the terms of thevisa expire.
Indian professionals have formed the largest category of individuals issued such visas by the UK over the years.
Indian professionals are also facing visa related challenges in other countries, including the U.S. India has dragged the U.S. to the WTO over its decision to impose high fees on temporary working visas.
Issue of Pakistan
India believes that the UK should take a tougher line with Pakistan on terrorism. The UK argues that it needs to maintain a positive relationship with Pakistan, not least because of the size of the Pakistani diaspora.
UK PM visit to India 2016
In November 2016 Prime Minister of United Kingdom Theresa May was on three day visit to India, and it was her maiden visit to India after becoming Prime Minister of UK. India and United Kingdom enjoys the cordial relations since long time. Both countries are considered as two pillars of the Commonwealth, sharing democratic values and a world view on many political issues including terrorism.
Key Agreements signed during the visit
UK’s PM Theresa May offered frequent registered traveller scheme for Indians travelling to Britain for business.
The UK is also planning to restrict immigration through “work and study routes” which will have an impact on Indians being hired by British firms.
Both countries reaffirmed the importance of the strategic partnership between both and it delivers huge benefits for both countries.
About the traveller Scheme
Under the scheme, Indian nationals frequently visiting to the U.K. and contributing to growth in both countries will have a ‘significantly easier’ entry process including fewer forms to be filled, access to the EU-EEA passport controls, swifter passage through airports.
It will give a boost to trade and investment in both the∙ countries and strengthen ties between two nations.
About the Immigration Scheme
As per the proposal
Immigration system will be re-looked if it provides the right incentives for businesses to invest in British workers.
From December 2016, landlords renting out property to people with no right to be in the UK will be committing a criminal offence and could go to prison.
Immigration checks will be a mandatory requirement for those wanting to get a licence to drive a taxi.
From 2017, banks will have to do regular checks to ensure they are not providing essential banking services to illegal migrants.
Prospective impacts of the Immigration Scheme
The tightened immigration will “ensure gaps in the UK’s labour market.
The crackdown will affect students from India planning to study in the UK; their numbers are already at an all-time low.
The move may make it difficult for British firms to hire from outside the EU, including countries like India.
BREXIT
Brexit is a term used to define United Kingdom coming out of EU. Recently in a referendum conducted in United Kingdom, UK voted by a narrow margin in favour of Brexit. Negotiations are undergoing currently between United Kingdom and European Parliament to negotiate the terms of the exit deal.
About EU
European Union or EU is an experiment to transform the relations between nations based on functionalist ideology. It envisages to transform the relations between nations by enmeshing them in economic, social, cultural, political partnership. EU is currently a block of 28 countries and 19 countries have formed Eurozone.
Formation of European Union is an outcome of Single European Act, 1991. Mashtricht Treaty converted the EU into a monetary union. Lisbon Treaty strengthened political, foreign affairs and security integration of policies of countries of European Union
Lisbon Treaty (Article 50) provides for exit of member countries from European Union. For any country to come out of European Union, it has to negotiate a deal with EU. The deal will provide for a settlement between EU and UK
Opinion of Political Groups
UK Independence Party, under the leadership of Nigel Farrage led the “Leave” campaign of UK
Labour Party, under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn led the “Stay”’ campaign of UK
David Cameron, ex PM of UK agreed to hold a referendum on Unikted Kingdom’s future in EU. Conservatives were in favour of staying in EU
Why the clamour for Brexit
Economic reasons – The primary contention was that economically, Britain loses more than what it gains.
The first issue being that of membership fees paid – about 340 pounds per year per household
Secondly, it was said that EU’s policies were too protectionist and did not favour competitiveness to the extent that would be beneficial for the British economy
Post the Sovereign Debt Crisis, EU introduced Fiscal Compact and tighter control on national budgets. Britain was not comfortable with these ideas
Germany’s proposal to impose taxes on financial transactions (Tobin Tax) also did not find favour with London, which is an important financial hub.
Immigration issues
Half of British legal migrants come from EU. There is this feeling that they have a negative impact on UK born workers. Adding credence to local fears was the fact that since 1997, 3/4th of jobs created are taken up by EU immigrants
EU’s obligation on its members to accommodate more refugees also did not find favour with UK. Especially at a time when the refugee influx in Europe is at an all time high in light of multiple crisis in Middle East and Africa
There is also this perception that immigrants pose a threat to national security
Sovereignty Issue
EU is a transformative idea in many senses. One of the things that it leads to is the weakening of national sovereignty. EU has been pushing for creation of an Ever Closer Union which would accord greater decision making powers to European Parliament, while, limiting the authority of British Parliament.
Impact of Brexit:
On UKEconomic
EU is a large market. 45% of British exports are directed towards EU. EU is the largest market for UK’s exports and one of the major sources of UK’s imports. Except Germany and Sweden, UK has a positive Balance of Trade with all other countries of EU. Post Brexit, access to EU markets would suffer for UK
Britain has emerged as a major financial hub. Post Brexit, the financial/services sector in UK would take a hit. We have already seen the London Exchange soaring down post Brexit
Immigrants to EU are better educated and skilled and offset the demographic disadvantage. That advantage will be lost for UK.
Geopolitical
It raises questions over the future of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Their desire to stay in Uk was preconditioned on UK remaining a part of EU. The Scots have already started demanding for a referendum on Scotland’s futute in UK. Even in Northen Ireland violence erupted post the Brexit vote
In an interconnected world, being a part of multilateral organizations is key to influence policy matters. No country can do it alone in a rapidly changing international environment. Similarly UK would lose some of its leverage now that it has voted for Brexit. Pursuit of sovereignty in purist terms in an interconnected world is a utopian idea
On EU
The idea of EU stands challenged. EU whose origin lied in the centuries of war that ravaged Europe was a transformative idea in international relations, enmeshing countries in cooperation. With the exit of UK, there is a possibility of other countries such as Greece etc to follow suit. Thus the idea of EU stands challenged.
EU is currently under multiple crisis emanating from financial slowdown, Russian challenge, security concerns. EU and Britain separately would not be able to handle a resurgent Russia. Similarly to deal with the security threats in Europe requires countries to act in concert and not independently
On India
Cons
The immediate impact of Brexit is an increase in risk aversion when it comes to investing, especially in light of the possibility of other countries following suit. This will affect the FPI outflows from foreign portfolio investors.
Rupee may depreciate because of the double effect of foreign fund outflow and dollar rise
IANS report says that Britain ranks 12th in terms of India’s bilateral trade with individual countries. It is also among 7 in top 25 countries with which India enjoys a trade surplus. India invests more in UK than the rest of Europe combined, emerging as the 3rd largest FDI investor. Access to European markets, therefore, is a key driver for Indian companies setting shop in UK. Britain coming out of EU is likely to affect the business prospects of these companies.
Nasscom in a recent report held that IT and ITeS industry of India will have a negative impact of close to $108bn. The impact can be seen in medium term (2-3 years). Indian IT companies with European headquarters in the UK would need to spend on infrastructure and staff for setting up a new office in the EU. (There are approximately 800 Indian companies in Britain)
Immigration (student and professional): Work-related visa restrictions have already resulted in a fall in the number of Indian students in the UK. Following Brexit, the number of Indian students applying to UK universities and colleges might reduce further. Sceptics also fear that visitation rights of relatives who have families in UK might also be affected. Also, those applying for visas in Britain may face a hard time. With Brexit, the government’s stance on immigration will likely curb overall immigration into the country.
Pros
While on the positive side, Brexit has driven away fears of a US Fed rate hike and could lead to lower commodity prices
UK loses a huge preferential market in the EU and would seek to build new alliances and trade pacts. India being one of the the fastest growing economies is rightly poised to gain from this development. The migration of EU skilled labour would decrease and english speaking Indian talent pool is definitely going to benefit out of it.
Indian students should be able to secure more financing for their college degree, as preferential scholarships to EU countries will reduce. This would mean India could be seen exporting more talent than present levels.
Devaluation of rupee might enhance India’s export competitiveness.
The positive side will be the trade deals with india. Indo-Eu bilateral trade agreement has not made much headway in years so we may be able to strike a better agreement with UK.
Also, let us not forget than India is a former colony of Britain and a member of Commonwealth of Nations. With UK separated from EU, it would want to create new economic alliances and may tilt towards its former colonies.
The January 6, 2016 ‘thermonuclear’ test by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is the fourth in the series of nuclear tests beginning in 2006. Is it a quest to attain credible deterrence against USA, Let’s see it!
Let’s first go into some North Korean nuke history.
What has North Korea tested in the past?
North Korea’s tests in 2006 and 2009 are thought to have been plutonium fission devices, but speculation was rife that its 2013 test was of an uranium-enriched device, though this has never been confirmed.<In general, uranium devices are much more difficult to fabricate and operate>
A test based on a uranium device would spell new dangers because weapons-grade plutonium enrichment happens in large facilities
That are easier to spot and uranium enrichment uses many, possibly small, centrifuges that can be hidden away
North Korea has also depleted its stocks of weapons-grade plutonium but has plentiful reserves of uranium ore
The fusion/H-bomb finds root in the history, as more powerful and technologically advanced than atomic weapons, such as those that devastated 2 Japanese cities in World War II
H-bombs use fusion, the merging of atoms to unleash massive amounts of energy, whereas atomic bombs use nuclear fission, or the splitting of atoms.
fatMan image – A mockup of ‘Fat Man’, the bomb that blew up over Nagasaki on August 9, 1945. Credit: euthman/Flickr, CC BY 2.0
What is Nuclear fusion?
In physics, nuclear fusion is the process by which multiple nuclei join together to form a heavier nucleus
It is accompanied by the release or absorption of energy depending on the masses of the nuclei involved.
In a hydrogen bomb, 2 isotopes of hydrogen, deuterium and tritium are fused to form a nucleus of helium and a neutron
This fusion releases 17.6 MeV of energy. Unlike nuclear fission, there is no limit on the amount of the fusion that can occur
Let’s get back to learn some changing equations in new world order.
Is it quest to attain deterrence against United States?
The supreme leader Kim Jong Un (KJU) had warned that, if aggressors dare to provoke us, even to a slight degree, we will never
tolerate it, and respond resolutely with a merciless sacred war of justice, a great war for national reunification
It declared: “The United States has persisted in ignoring our just demand for replacing the Armistice Agreement with a separate pact to remove the danger of war, ease tension and create a powerful environment in the Korean peninsula. The Korean Armistice Agreement is the armistice which ended the Korean War. It was signed between U.S. and North Korea in 1953.
Instead, it has clung to its anachronistic policy hostile towards the DPRK, escalating the tension and egging its vassal forces on to stage a ‘human rights’ racket against the country
In May 2015, Pyongyang had announced that it had successfully tested a Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM). However, South Korean experts had treated this claim with considerable scepticism
Whether the most recent North Korean test was that of a Hydrogen Bomb will be known after a while, but the objective was miniaturisation of the system so that the nuclear weapon can be mounted on a missile
North Korea has made it known that it wants recognition by the world community as a nuclear weapon power and no amount of external pressure would force it to pause in that quest
What was the Global Reaction?
The UN Security Councilcondemned the nuclear test, declared that it is a ‘clear violation’ of its previous resolutions, and pledged to pursue new sanctions against North Korea
USA, South Korea and Japan have agreed to work together to forge a united and strong international response to North Korea’s reckless behaviour
Japan hinted at some unilateral measures, include strengthening of the anti-missile defence systems protecting Japan from a North Korean attack
Who is in the real position to apply pressure on North Korea?
Only China is in a position to apply some credible pressure on North Korea since 88 per cent of North Korea’s foreign trade is with China
According to the South Koreans, China has been applying the existing UN sanctions against North Korea faithfully and the export of about 900 dual-use items has been prohibited to that country
China is comfortable with strategic ambiguity about the nuclear status of North Korea
But the insistence of an open declaration by the North of its Nuclear Weapon Power status would disrupt its strategic calculations in the region as the response from Japan could upset the regional power equation
Seoul expects China to do more to denuclearise North Korea particularly in view of the rapidly warming ROK-China relations
Has North Korea’s approach towards South Korea changed?
In the midst of heightened tensions, there are signs that North Korea is working with the aim of driving a wedge between the United States and South Korea
For which it is pursuing 2 independent policies – one of nuclearisation and acceptance as a nuclear weapons power
The second of not upsetting the apple cart with South Korea and continue with the current policy of no peace – no war
world nuke test image – Source: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.5
Conclusion on sidelines
Analysing the events of the past 1 year, it would be fair to conclude that Kim Jong Un has firm control over all the levers of power in North Korea, including the military
The reclusive country would continue on the course set by Kim II Sung and Kim Jong II, pursuing a policy of ‘Military First’, the ‘Juche’ concept of self-reliance and seeking effective nuclear strike capability against the United States
Juche is a political philosophy, became the official autarkic state ideology of the DPRK in 1972 Although foreign scholars often describe juche as “self-reliance,” the true meaning of the term is much more nuanced.
The peninsula would continue to be divided as neither side is keen on unification despite their public protestations in favour of reuniting the long-divided country
The paramount objective of the DPRK leadership continues to be the survival of the regime and its politico-economic system, and it is unlikely to allow tensions with South Korea or the United States to come to a point that would lead to hostilities
Whatever the truth of this test, for diplomacy, observers say it dashes any hopes of North Korea returning to stalled talks involving the US, Russia, China and others.
After decades of struggle, finally democracy triumphed over military junta and Myanmar parliament enters democratic era after 54 years of military rule. It’s time to glance over India-Myanmar relations and how India will be benefited from such stable democratic government.
India and Myanmar have traditionally had much in common, with cultural, historical, ethnic and religious ties, in addition to sharing a long geographical land border and maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. Let’s see it in brief!
How did India and Myanmar engagement begin ?
Myanmar is India’s bridge to east, and an important ally for growing its regional power.
India and Myanmar’s relationship officially got underway after the Treaty of Friendship was signed in 1951.
For many years, India did not open up to the authoritarian regime, and it was only over a period of time that India started engaging with the military juntaof Myanmar.
The region’s focus has revolved around the SAARC countries and China, Myanmar is becoming increasingly important for India in both a strategic and economic context.
What about bilateral trade ties?
Bilateral trade has grown from $12.4 million in 1980-81 to $2.18 billion in 2013-14.
Agricultural items like beans and pulses and forest based products make up nearly 90 percent of India’s imports.
Myanmar is also the beneficiary of a duty-free tariffpreference scheme for least developed countries (LDCs).
Both countries also signed a border trade agreement in 1994 and have 2 trade points along their 1,643 km border.
India has also promoted some trade events such as the India Product Show 2012, which represented 19 Indian companies.
But, How shared cultural links promote unique relations between both countries?
The two countries have shared cultural exchanges through various cultural troupes.
One such exchange was in 2009 when Myanmar sent a 13 member student group that attended a SAARC cultural festival in India.
This was followed by another major event at which the Indian embassy in Yangon organized the annual Indian Film Festival, which is a major event on the Yangon cultural calendar.
Does India have historical bond with Myanmar?
Yes!Yangon was once a center for India’s independence struggle.
The Indian National Army (INA), formed by Indian nationalists during World War II in 1942 with the motto of Ittehad, Itmad aur Qurbani (Unity, Faith and Sacrifice).
Comprised over 40,000 soldiers, who fought valiantly against the British imperialist forces.
Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose became leader of the INA in 1943 and undertook a groundbreaking march towards Indian territories from Burmese soil with the aim of achieving Indian independence.<This time we can expect question on Netaji and his work, as we know current happenings about Netaji’s files declassified>
General Aung San, Burma’s independence hero, was a close friend of Netaji, the supreme commander of the INA.
That friendship was reflected in cordial relationship between the soldiers of the INA and their counterparts in the Burmese National Army (BNA).
So, it’s good to use this historical bond for building more coherent and strong relations with Myanmar.
How Myanmar is Strategically significant to India?
Myanmar is strategically important to India as it is the only ASEAN country that shares a land border with India.
It is also the only country that can act as a link between India and ASEAN.
Myanmar is India’s gateway to Southeast Asia and could be the required impetus to realize India’s Look East Policy.
India has also decided to upgrade the Kalewa-Yargyi road segment to highway standard.
Myanmar would develop the Yargyi-Monywa portion, and this would help to connect Moreh in India to Mae Sot in Thailand via Myanmar.
This in turn would improve India’s connectivity and relationship with both Myanmar and Thailand.
How can India become regional pivot in Asia?
If India is to become an assertive regional player in Asia, it has to work toward developing policies that would improve and strengthen it domestically.
This will encourage more confidence in its ability to lead the region and be an important global player.
Competition with China should also be considered and taken seriously. As China’s growing influence in the region would lead to a more one-sided dynamic in the region.
China has asserted itself through its soft power as well as through its trade and economic relations with Myanmar by taking up large infrastructure projects in the country.
India on the other hand needs to use its soft power more effectively, and at the same time strengthen itself domestically and regionally.
What are advantages that India has over China with regard to Myanmar?
One is the democratic process, which results in different governments at the center and states through free and fair elections.
There is also the respect for institutions that are strong enough to hold the country together.
Finally, cooperation in different multilateral forums such as ASEAN and BIMSTEC strengthen the relationship between the 2 countries.
Apart from these reasons, India has sent a clear signal that while economic ties are important, it is keen to build a holistic relationship and is prepared to assist in institution building in Myanmar.
What is the significance of Connectivity in India-Myanmar Relations?
<How North-Eastern region can play vital role in this?>
Myanmar’s vast oil and natural gas reserves and other resources make it a natural partner for many countries in the world.
India, being its next door neighbour, cannot be indifferent to this reality.
Besides, geo-political considerations, historical and civilizational links, and the ethnic overlap across their borders, have all come together to make India’s North-Eastthe land bridge between the South and South-East Asia through Myanmar.
The 1,640 km-long border between Myanmar and the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram signifies the importance of this eastern neighbour for India.
India expects to reap various economic benefits by bolstering bilateral trade and investment, which critically depends upon better connectivity in the region.
How bilateral cooperation agreement gives impetus to India’s Look-East Policy?
The strategic location of Myanmar is pivotal to India in reaching out to the economically vibrant South-East Asian countries.
India’s Look-East Policy envisages building infrastructure and expanding the transportation network including railroads, aimed at furthering surface connectivity in the region.
It is recognized that in addition to more economic contacts, such connectivity will promote social stability in the region by facilitating people-to-people contact amongst trans-border ethnic groups.
It is expected that insurgent outfits would lose their recruitment base once the local resources begin to be exploited and employment is generated leading to overall development.
Concrete economic benefits are expected to come up in the region with establishment of border haats.
In addition, internal trade routes have the potential to enhance accessibility to sub-regional markets that connect Bangladesh, Myanmar and Bhutan.
Way forward
The basic foundation for the relationship between India and Myanmar has been laid by previous governments, the onus is on the present Indian administration to demonstrate that it can take the relationship to a higher level.
India can become a strong regional player through a more proactive approach, cement India’s place in the region and grow into a powerful, global country.
Terrorist attack on Pathankot airbase after PM Modi’s Birthday Diplomacy has once again brought to spotlight challenges of dealing with Pakistan. Successive governments have tried to engage pakistan. PM vajpayee’s Bus Yatra to Lahore, Manmohan-Musharraf talks, PM Modi’s shawl diplomacy at the swearing in ceremony are some of the examples. Successive govt have also failed in their attempts to normalise relations with Pakistan. Question remains as to, what should be the best way to deal with Pakistan?
In this article, we try to answer some of the pertinent questions related to India’s Pakistan policy through the perspective of dove and hawk.
Some strategic commentators like to point out that there is a pattern to attack. Every attempt by India to improve relations with Pakistan has evoked this kind of response.
Lahore bus trip of Vajpayee was followed by Kargil attack.
Parliament was attacked after failed Agra summit.
When indian forces were deployed at border in response, attack at Kaluchak.
After Musharraf manmohan talk ran into rough weather, Mumbai serial train bombing and 26/11.
Ufa meeting was followed by Gurdaspur attack.
#1. Who are the elements within Pakistan who do not want normal relations between two countries?
Dove- Apart from jihadists, there are elements within the army who do not want any sort of movement towards any sort of rapprochement. But attacks do not necessarily imply that they were sanctioned by the top brass of Pak military.
Hawk- No evidence of split in Pakistani army. There may be differences of opinion but army remains a professional force controlled by army chief. Attackers must at least have the tacit approval of generals. Pakistani generals including Musharraf have been on record saying they use terrorists as instrument of state policy. This is part of their security doctrine.
#2. Are these attacks timed to prevent normalisation of relations?
Dove- Yes, certainly. Attackers do not want normal people to people relations. Pattern of their attacks bear testimony to this. They want to derail bilateral talks,
Hawk- They attack India to bring us to accept their agenda i.e. talk on Kashmir, Baluchistan etc. They believe,unless there’s terrorism, India won’t discuss the agenda Pakistan wants.
#3. What about talks? Should talks be cancelled?
Dove- There are no other options available and calling off the talk would be playing into the hands of terrorists. They should not be allowed to derail the peace process.
Hawk- Talks can not be an end in themselves. What is more important is what do we talk about? Pakistani generals have responded to all the concession given by PM in this manner. Now talk has to be on terror and terror only.
We also need to keep in mind, any talk with political establishment will not be successful until Pakistanis themselves are able to bring military on board
#4. If not talk, what are the other options?
Dove-Army is not a monolith,not everyone want bad relations with India. we should cultivate relations with the moderate elements within Pakistani establishment and civil society, create vested interests in favour of normal ties. War does not serve any purpose. There’s no alternative to talks.
Hawk- Only answer we have been able to devise to Pak provocation is to call off the talks.
Answer to low intensity warfare is low intensity warfare and it’s not bomb for bomb but emasculation of state structures. India should be prepared to hit pakistan where it hurts at the time and place of its choosing. There are so many internal fissures inside pakistan. We can exploit them.
#5. But wouldn’t unstable Pakistan be even more of a problem for India?
Dove- Destabilizing Pak doesn’t serve India’s interests. Creation of Bangladesh hasn’t necessarily helped our security. Instability there will lead to chaos which would spill over and would be disastrous for our security and other interests.
Hawk- Our problem is our fear that instability in Pakistan will harm us irreparably and our premise that stability of Pak is in our interest and the fond hope that political class and civil society will one day come up. If Baluchistan, frontiers were not there, what would remain is Punjab and it would be a weakened Punjab and its Punjab that’s creating problems.
Let’s not discuss whether a strong Pak is good for India, or weak Pak is good for India, of course no Pak is best for India.
#6. But why does Pakistan do it? What does it tell about the nature of Pak state?
Dove- Defiance is essential to ensure normal disparity never fully operate. Military obviously control its pak policy and elements within military and Jihadist groups carry out such attacks to maintain control over Pak society.
Hawk- It’s not a state with an army but army with a state. They have gone on a completely different trajectory. It is virtually becoming a theocratic state. Also there is deep criminalization of Pakistani state. Madrasas, jihadist groups, sectarian groups, organized crimes they have all become interlinked.
#7. What should India do to prevent such attacks?
Dove- Strengthen our own security. Carry on with talks to build positive momentum in bilateral relationship. Strengthen the hands of civilian govt there.
Hawk- Strengthen our security. Complete the fencing. Drug smuggling is rampant which can’t happen unless there is connivance on both sides. If smugglers can sneak through, so can terrorists.
We also need to improve our technical capabilities. They were using mobile phones and we were not even able to pinpoint exact locations.
We must also establish deterrence that mischief will be countered by robust action on the ground. Carrot and stick policy ie carrot of talk and stick of robust punishment on the ground.
#8. Can we carry out Myanmar like hot pursuit or operation like Neptune spear?
Dove- It will only escalate tensions and won’t be in the interest of either side. There would be too much pressure from international community. There’s vast difference in the capabilities of India and USA..
Hawk- We need to get rid of monkey of being a soft state off our back. If we so decide, we can undertake Myanmar like operation. There is a role of violence in state craft especially when we are dealing with very very violent actors.
#9. What about the role of international community, external pressure?
Dove- We are responsible member of international community. We should try to put pressure on Pakistan to stoop its territory from being used as launching pad for terrorism. We should not do anything that sully our image.
Hawk- Pakistan don’t feel any pressure, why do we feel pressure of international community! Everyone knows Pak is epicenter of terrorism yet Pak cleverly plays its card of being a nuclear armed state and gets away with everything.
Finally, something both dove and hawk agree on –
Fact remains that Pakistan will have to come to conclusion that good relations with India are in their own interest. It’s a society in deep crisis. Frankenstein monster has come to bite its own master. There is an urgent need of a civil society movement to overhaul the whole power equation and social structure of Pak society.
