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GS Paper: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

  • India-Sri Lanka ferry service restarted

    What’s the news?

    • The passenger ferry service, named ‘Cheriyapani,’ was officially launched on a recent Saturday.

    Central idea

    • The Nagapattinam-Jaffna ferry service revives an ancient India-Sri Lanka sea route, fostering bilateral ties, tourism, and people-to-people relations. Additionally, it promises economic benefits for local traders on both coasts.

    The New Ferry Service

    • The passenger ferry service, Cheriyapani, was officially launched.
    • Travelers can avail a one-way ticket for approximately Rs 7,670, which includes a generous baggage allowance of up to 40 kg per passenger.
    • The journey departs from Nagapattinam at 7 am, reaching Kankesanthurai by 11 am, and the return trip commences at 1.30 pm, arriving in Nagapattinam by 5.30 pm.

    Historical Context

    • Maritime linkage between India and Sri Lanka has a rich history, with the Indo-Ceylon Express or Boat Mail operating from Chennai to Colombo via Thoothukudi port until 1982. The civil war in Sri Lanka disrupted these services.
    • Before the conflict, Dhanushkodi to Talaimannar was a popular route, connecting Chennai via train and coal-powered steam ferry.

    Past Attempts at Ferry Services

    • Post-Independence Services: Following India’s independence and the formation of Sri Lanka as a separate nation in 1948, ferry services continued to operate between the two countries, connecting ports like Chennai and Colombo.
    • Indo-Ceylon Express: The Indo-Ceylon Express, also known as the Boat Mail, ran between Chennai and Colombo via the Thoothukudi port from the early 1900s until 1982. This service was a significant mode of transportation and trade between the two countries.
    • Disruption Due to Civil War: The prolonged civil war in Sri Lanka, which began in 1983, led to the suspension of ferry services between India and Sri Lanka. This conflict disrupted not only transportation but also the overall relationship between the two countries.
    • Memorandum of Understanding (MoU): After the end of the civil war in 2009, there were renewed efforts to restore ferry services. In 2011, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) concerning passenger transportation by sea was signed, leading to the launch of a ferry service.
    • Proposals for New Routes: Besides the Nagapattinam-Jaffna route, there were proposals to establish ferry services from Rameswaram to Talaimannar and Karaikal to Kankesanthurai. O

    Potential Impact of the Nagapattinam-Jaffna Ferry Service

    • Boost to Religious Tourism: Prominent Indian pilgrimage centers such as Nagapattinam, Nagore, Velankanni, Thirunallar, and temple towns like Thanjavur, Madurai, and Tiruchi are expected to witness an influx of Sri Lankan tourists.
    • Economic Benefits: The ferry service has the potential to stimulate regional commerce and trade. Local traders and businesses on both sides of the Palk Strait may benefit from increased cross-border trade and tourism.
    • Diplomatic and Bilateral Relations: High-level statements from leaders of both countries, such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, indicate the diplomatic significance attached to the service.
    • Infrastructure Development: The anticipation of increased travelers has prompted infrastructure development initiatives. Investments in port facilities, customs procedures, and immigration processes can enhance the overall travel experience.
    • Promotion of Regional Peace: Increased people-to-people interactions facilitated by the ferry service can contribute to regional peace and stability by fostering mutual understanding and goodwill between communities on both sides of the strait.

    Initial Challenges Faced by the Nagapattinam-Jaffna Ferry Service

    • Service Frequency Adjustment: The Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) had initially planned to run the ferry services every day for ten days. However, this schedule was adjusted to operate thrice a week.
    • Ticket Pricing: The cost of a one-way ticket, approximately Rs 7,670, has been considered relatively high by some passengers. High ticket prices can deter potential travelers, particularly those on a tight budget.
    • Ticketing Systems: Reports suggest that the ticketing systems for the ferry service may not be as efficient as desired. Passengers have experienced difficulties with booking tickets, which can lead to inconvenience and dissatisfaction.
    • Reduced Passenger Interest: Poor response and passenger turnout during the initial days of operation may be indicative of reduced interest in the service. Building awareness and creating incentives for passengers to choose the ferry over other modes of transportation is crucial.
    • Operational Efficiency: Operational efficiency is critical for the ferry service’s success. Ensuring timely departures, arrivals, and efficient boarding processes is essential to maintain passenger satisfaction and reliability.

    Leaders’ Perspectives

    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during the launch of the service on October 14, emphasized that connectivity is not just about bringing cities closer; it also fosters closer relationships between countries and their people.
    • Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, in a video message, regarded the revival of the ferry service as a significant step toward strengthening connectivity between India and Sri Lanka.

    Conclusion

    • The inauguration of the Nagapattinam-Jaffna ferry service signifies a promising chapter in the historical maritime linkage between India and Sri Lanka. By addressing operational challenges and leveraging its potential, this initiative can contribute to regional development, tourism, and strengthened bilateral ties.

  • India-Sri Lanka Ferry Service

    India-Sri Lanka Ferry Service

    Central Idea

    • PM Modi inaugurated an international, high-speed passenger ferry service in Palk Strait between Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu, India, and Kankesanthurai, near Jaffna in Sri Lanka.

    India-Sri Lanka Ferry

    • The service is operated by the Tamil Nadu Maritime Board and Shipping Corporation of India.
    • It will operate daily, covering the 60-nautical mile (110-km) journey in approximately 3.5 hours.
    • Passengers are entitled to a 50kg free baggage allowance.
    • The Indo-Ceylon Express or Board Mail used to operate between Chennai and Colombo via Thoothukudi port.
    • However, this was stopped in 1982 due to the civil war in the island country.

    About Palk Strait

    Location Narrow water body separating Tamil Nadu, India, and Sri Lanka.
    Name Origin Named after Robert Palk, a British Raj-era governor of Madras Presidency (1755-1763).
    Geographic Boundaries Southern boundaries include Pamban Island (India), Adam’s Bridge (shoals), Gulf of Mannar, and Mannar Island (Sri Lanka).
    Connection Connects the Bay of Bengal in the northeast with the Gulf of Mannar in the southwest.
    Alternate Name Southwestern part of the strait is known as Palk Bay.
    Dimensions Width varies from 40 to 85 miles (64 to 137 km), length is approximately 85 miles, and depth is less than 330 feet (100 meters).
    River Inflows Vaigai River in Tamil Nadu flow into the Palk Strait.

  • India and Maldives ties

    What’s the news?

    • Recent changes in the Maldives’ leadership have raised questions about the future of its relationship with India.

    Central idea

    • While leadership changes may bring some alterations, the fundamental ties between the two nations remain intact. From the era of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom to the present day, India and the Maldives have maintained a close and friendly relationship, with occasional challenges. Therefore, it’s essential not to rush to judgment regarding the current situation.

    Background

    • Historical Ties: The relationship between India and the Maldives is deep-rooted. From Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s leadership until today, both nations have maintained a close bond, despite occasional hiccups.
    • Geographical Proximity: The Maldives spans 90,000 sq km, mostly covered by the sea, with the remaining land spread across 1,200 islands. Situated just 70 nautical miles away, India has always been the Maldives’ closest ally. As Ibn Khaldun stated, geography is destiny.

    Challenges in the Maldives

    “Maldives, despite its 98% literacy rate, faces various contradictions that pose challenges to democratic governance.”

    • Constitutional Restrictions: The Maldivian constitution bars anyone who isn’t a Sunni Muslim from becoming a citizen. This can be seen as restrictive and exclusive, which may not align with broader principles of democratic governance.
    • Nascent Civil Society: The civil society in the Maldives is still emerging. This means the public structures and mechanisms that can hold the government accountable and ensure the active participation of citizens in the governance process might be underdeveloped.
    • Drug Abuse: The Maldives has been grappling with an increasing problem of drug abuse, which poses social and health-related challenges.
    • Distorted Labor Market: This implies there might be imbalances in employment opportunities, perhaps with certain sectors having too many workers and others having too few, or challenges related to wages and workers’ rights.
    • Growing Inequality: Despite its successes in areas like tourism, the Maldives faces growing economic disparities among its population.
    • Foreign Influence and Debt: China’s policy of extending debt and subsequently interfering in the internal politics of the Maldives, as well as supporting conservative elements, poses challenges. This not only can lead to a debt crisis but also threatens the democratic progression of the country.
    • Legacy of Controlled Regime: The influence of the Gayoom years and the alignment with China by certain elements for narrow gains might not serve the broader interests of the Maldivian nation in the long term.

    India’s Role

    • Historically: From Buddhism’s prevalence in the Maldives to its dependence on India during the British protectorate era (1887–1965), India has always played an influential role.
    • Economically: The State Bank of India has been instrumental in boosting the Maldives’ tourism economy and remains the largest bank there.
    • Assistance: Whether during the 1988 coup, the 2004 tsunami, or the 2014 water crisis, India has always been the first to assist. India also supplies essential items in bulk and contributes significantly to the Maldivian education and health sectors.
    • Defence and Security: India has been a robust defense partner, conducting joint exercises and providing security assistance.

    India’s Concerns Regarding the Maldives

    • China’s Growing Influence: China’s increasing role in the Maldives is driven by debt financing. This kind of influence, particularly through debt traps, could lead to the consequent hegemony of China in the region, which is a matter of concern for India given the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean Region.
    • Internal Interference by External Powers: China’s policy of interfering in the internal politics of the Maldives, especially its support for conservative elements, is worrisome for India. This could hinder the development of a robust democracy in the Maldives and potentially impact the bilateral relationship between India and the Maldives.
    • Economic Interests: With projects like greater Male connectivity and being a major supplier of essential goods to the Maldives, India has vested economic interests. Any disruption or potential shift in trade relations can impact India’s economic engagement.
    • Security and Defense Cooperation: The defense cooperation isn’t just about tangible assets like helicopters but extends to joint exercises, training, and disaster management. Any shift in Maldivian policies that affects this cooperation can be concerning.
    • Legacy of Assistance: India’s role as a primary responder to Maldivian crises and its consistent support over the years hold significance. India would be concerned if such efforts and goodwill aren’t recognized or are undermined by external influences.

    Recent developments in the Maldives

    • President Designate Mohamed Muizzu: Mohamed Muizzu, described as a Western-educated engineer, is expected to take over the reins of leadership. His past roles and his education may influence the Maldives’ direction, both domestically and in terms of foreign relations.
    • Former President Yameen’s Situation: Yameen’s shift from jail to house arrest indicates changing political dynamics within the Maldives. Given that Yameen’s tenure was marked by a pro-China policy, any change related to his influence might hint at a shift in foreign policy alignment.

    Conclusion

    • India’s unwavering commitment has significantly shaped the Maldives, and any impulsive decisions could be detrimental for the latter. Given the deep historical ties and mutual interests, it’s crucial for the new leadership to recognize and value the long-standing bond. As history has often shown, taking relationships for granted can have grave consequences.

    Also read:

    The Maldives, the evolution of a democracy

  • The Maldives, the evolution of a democracy

    What’s the news?

    • The recent presidential election in the Maldives has demonstrated the vitality of democracy in South Asia’s smallest nation-state.

    Central idea

    • The Maldives’ recent fair and free election, which enhanced its international standing, underscores the importance of a nuanced understanding of its politics rather than portraying it as a China vs. India contest. Voter concerns, especially among the youth, are primarily centered on economic well-being.

    Transition of Power in the Maldives and India vs. China

    • Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s Era (1978–2008): For three decades, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom ruled as the President, maintaining a one-party system. This period marked a lack of political pluralism and democracy in the Maldives.
    • Emergence of Multiparty Democracy (Late 2000s): The Maldives began to transition towards a multiparty democracy under a new constitution, signaling a shift away from Gayoom’s authoritarian rule.
    • Mohamed Nasheed’s Presidency (2008–2012): Mohamed Nasheed, a charismatic leader, became the first directly elected President of the Maldives. However, his presidency was short-lived, as he did not complete his full five-year term.
    • Shared Presidency (2012–2013): Mohamed Nasheed’s resignation led to a period of political uncertainty. Mohamed Waheed Hassan assumed the presidency during this transitional phase.
    • Abdulla Yameen’s Presidency (2013–2018): Abdulla Yameen became president and was notably the most pro-China president during his tenure. His presidency marked a shift in the Maldives’ foreign policy towards China.
    • Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s Presidency (2018–2023): Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, representing the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), assumed the presidency and adopted an ‘India First’ policy, emphasizing strong ties with India.
    • Transition to Mohamed Muizzu (Upcoming): Following Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s defeat, the presidency is set to transition to Mohamed Muizzu, the opposition candidate backed by an alliance of political parties. Muizzu, who currently serves as the mayor of the capital city, Male, will be sworn in as the new president.

    Challenges Faced by Ibrahim Mohamed Solih

    • Historical Incumbent Disadvantage: The Maldives has a history of not re-electing incumbent presidents, posing a significant challenge to Solih’s re-election.
    • Intraparty Conflict: Internal divisions within the ruling MDP, exacerbated by Mohamed Nasheed’s departure, weakened party cohesion and campaign effectiveness.
    • Disinformation Campaign: The opposition alliance launched a disinformation campaign exploiting MDP’s internal divisions and injecting unnecessary geopolitical issues into the election discourse.
    • Loss of Nasheed’s Influence: Mohamed Nasheed’s departure deprived the MDP of his charismatic leadership and effective communication skills, further straining party unity.

    The Path Ahead for the Maldives

    • Leadership Dynamics: Watch for the evolving relationship between President-elect Muizzu and former President Yameen, a key figure in the new administration.
    • Transition to Presidential Role: Expect Mayor Muizzu to shift from his mayoral role to acting as president, focusing on domestic development and regional responsibilities.
    • Domestic Priorities: Muizzu is likely to prioritize issues like employment, housing, and education for Maldivian citizens while leveraging foreign policy for national interests.
    • Foreign Policy Options: The new administration faces choices in foreign policy: revert to ‘India Out,’ continue ‘India First,’ or adopt a balanced approach involving India and China.
    • Changing Global Landscape: Consider the impact of challenges to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Sri Lankan financial crisis requiring India’s help, and shifts in India-Gulf State relations on the Maldives’ stance.
    • Islamist Constituency: Monitor the attitude of the Maldives’ Islamist constituency, which historically had complex relations with India, in response to changing regional dynamics.
    • Reduced Interest in Pakistan: Observe how diminishing interest in Pakistan in West Asia may affect the Maldives’ security and its handling of extremism-related challenges.

    Recommendations for India’s approach in the evolving Maldivian political landscape

    • Positive Public Sentiment: India enjoys a positive image among the Maldivian people, thanks to extensive development work and community projects. This sentiment can be leveraged for stronger bilateral relations.
    • Engagement with Youth: Thousands of Maldivian youth have benefited from training and capacity-building programs in India. Continued engagement with youth is vital for fostering long-term ties.
    • Diverse Engagement: India plays a significant role in the Maldives, including in tourism, trade, and investment. This multifaceted engagement should be nurtured and expanded.
    • Strengthening Regional Initiatives: New Delhi should focus on strengthening regional initiatives, such as the Colombo Security Conclave, with tangible outcomes in maritime security and the development of the Blue Economy.
    • BIMSTEC Involvement: India should consider reimagining regional cooperation by inviting the Maldives as an observer in the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) at its next summit. This could enhance regional collaboration.
    • Resource Allocation: There is a need for additional resources to support India’s strategic community and media organizations in taking a more active interest in the Maldives. Building bridges of mutual understanding and trust is essential.

    Conclusion

    • The Maldives’ recent presidential election underscores the resilience of democracy and the evolving political landscape in South Asia. As the nation embarks on a new chapter, prudent diplomacy and strategic engagement will be essential for the Maldives and its regional partners, including India, to navigate the challenges and opportunities on the horizon.

  • India’s Evolving Relations with Israel and Palestine

    israel

    Central Idea

    • The recent attack by Hamas (Arab sponsored Jihadist outfit) on Israel has prompted PM Modi to express solidarity with Israel, highlighting the complex nature of India’s relations with both Israel and Palestine.
    • Over the past seven decades, India’s stance on these nations has undergone significant shifts, reflecting its evolving foreign policy priorities and diplomatic considerations.

    About Israel-Palestine Conflict

    • Historical Background: The land of contention was under the Ottoman Empire and later the British Empire.
    • Anti-Semitism as Official Policy: Several Islamic countries, including the Arab world, Turkiye and Pakistan, have officially expressed hatred against Jews citing reference to religious scriptures.
    • Denial of Access: Jews, as a micro-minority of the world, have been denied access to their historic homeland.
    • Arab Resistance: Arabs resisted, claiming the land as their own, known as Palestine at the time.
    • Balfour Declaration: In 1917, the United Kingdom expressed support for the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine.
    • Violent Resistance: Arab resistance to the declaration led to violence and further tensions.

    India’s quest for Balancing Relations

    India’s Post-Independence Stance

    • Nehru and Gandhi’s Stand: Post-independence, India was staunchly pro-Palestine as Jawaharlal Nehru and Mahatma Gandhi opposed religious exclusivity and supported the Palestinian cause.
    • UN Votes: India voted against the partition of Palestine and Israel’s admission to the UN but recognized Israel in 1950 after Turkey and Iran did so.

    Era of Indira and Rajiv Gandhi

    • Support for Palestine: During Indira Gandhi’s rule, India continued its support for the Palestinian struggle, elevating the PLO to the sole legitimate representative of Palestine.
    • Solidarity and Diplomacy: Strong ties were forged with Yasser Arafat, and India hosted the NAM summit in 1983, emphasizing solidarity with Palestine.

    Changing Dynamics

    • Critics and Shifts: Critics within India raised concerns about its pro-Arab stance, given Arab countries’ neutrality during India’s wars with China and Pakistan.
    • Indian-Israeli Relations: India recognized Israel in 1992, establishing full diplomatic relations after the end of the Cold War and BJP’s rise to power.
    • Kargil Conflict: During the Kargil conflict in 1999, Israel provided crucial military support, strengthening bilateral ties.

    Recent Developments

    • PM Modi’s Approach: Prime Minister Modi’s approach has balanced India’s ties with Israel and Palestine. He visited Israel in 2017, signaling a shift in focus.
    • De-hyphenation: Modi achieved a de-hyphenation of the relationship by separately visiting Palestine in 2018.
    • Wider Regional Engagement: India has deepened ties with Israel and West Asian nations like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and Iran over the past decade.

    Current Dilemma

    • Diplomatic Tight Spot: Recent hostilities in the region have placed India in a diplomatic dilemma. The conflict tests India’s relations with Israel and Palestine against the backdrop of the Abraham Accords and shifting Middle East dynamics.
    • Dividends at Stake: India had hoped to benefit from the newfound peace in the region, given its significant diaspora, connectivity, and energy imports from West Asia.

    Conclusion

    • India’s relationship with Israel and Palestine has evolved significantly since independence, influenced by domestic politics, global shifts, and regional considerations.
    • While India continues to support the Palestinian cause, it has also strengthened its strategic ties with Israel.
    • The recent escalation in hostilities in the region poses challenges for India’s diplomatic balancing act and its aspirations in the Middle East.

  • Israel-Hamas War

    Israel

    What’s the news?

    • The recent escalation of violence between Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group, and Israel has resulted in a significant loss of life and raised concerns internationally. At the heart of this conflict is Operation Al-Aqsa Deluge, initiated by Hamas, which has led to a series of events with far-reaching implications for the region.

    Central idea

    • The recent Hamas operation, Toofan Al-Aqsa (Al-Aqsa Flood), bears uncanny similarities to the launch of the 19-day Yom Kippur War that occurred 50 years ago. While the Yom Kippur War had inconclusive results, it led to a significant regional shift, ultimately resulting in Israel’s acceptance of the ‘land for peace’ formula at the Camp David Accords six years later.

    Quick recap: Understand the conflict

    • Muhammad Deif’s Statement: Muhammad Deif, the military commander of Hamas, delivered a recorded message, characterizing the operation as a moment for people to regain their revolution.
    • The Significance of Al-Aqsa Mosque: Central to this conflict is the Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of the holiest sites in Islam after Mecca and Medina. Situated on a hill known as Temple Mount to Jews and the Noble Sanctuary to Muslims, the mosque is located in the heart of Jerusalem’s Old City. It houses two important Muslim holy sites: the Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa Mosque (also known as the Qibli Mosque), dating back to the 8th century AD.
    • Historical Context: The Al-Aqsa Mosque complex overlooks the Western Wall, a sacred site for Jews believed to have been constructed 3,000 years ago by King Solomon.
    • Capture by Israel: In 1967, during the Middle East War, Israel captured the site and later annexed it, actions not recognized internationally.
    • Triggering Tensions: The Al-Aqsa Mosque has been a long-standing focal point of Israeli-Palestinian tensions, leading to clashes and conflicts.
    • 2021 Conflict: Recent clashes in 2021 resulted in a 10-day-long war, leading to casualties on both sides.
    • April Clashes: In April of the same year, Israeli police clashed with Palestinians at the site, sparking cross-border exchanges of fire.
    • International Concern: The ongoing violence, particularly centered around Al-Aqsa Mosque, has raised international concerns and has broader implications for regional stability.

    Hold On! Don’t scroll past this

    An overview of major flare-ups and significant events (2005 to October 2023)

    • August 2005: Israel unilaterally withdraws from the Gaza Strip, leaving it under Palestinian Authority control.
    • January 25, 2006: Hamas wins a majority of seats in Palestinian legislative elections, leading to a cutoff of aid by Israel and the U.S. due to Hamas’s refusal to renounce violence and recognize Israel.
    • June 25, 2006: Hamas militants capture Israeli army conscript Gilad Shalit, leading to Israeli air strikes and incursions. Shalit is released more than five years later in a prisoner exchange.
    • June 14, 2007: Hamas takes over Gaza in a brief civil war, ousting Fatah forces loyal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
    • December 27, 2008: Israel launches a 22-day military offensive in Gaza in response to rocket attacks. A ceasefire is eventually agreed upon after casualties on both sides.
    • November 14, 2012: Israel kills Hamas’s military chief of staff, Ahmad Jabari, leading to eight days of conflict involving Palestinian militant rocket fire and Israeli air strikes.
    • July-August 2014: The kidnapping and killing of three Israeli teenagers by Hamas lead to a seven-week war, resulting in casualties in both Gaza and Israel.
    • March 2018: Palestinian protests begin at Gaza’s border with Israel, leading to clashes and casualties.
    • May 2021: Tension during Ramadan leads to clashes at the Al Aqsa compound in Jerusalem. Hamas launches rocket attacks from Gaza, and Israel responds with airstrikes, resulting in an 11-day conflict.
    • August 2022: Israeli airstrikes target an Islamic Jihad commander, leading to rocket attacks from Islamic Jihad in Gaza and a limited escalation.
    • January 2023: Islamic Jihad fires rockets into Israel in response to Israeli actions in a refugee camp.
    • October 2023: Hamas launches a major attack on Israel from Gaza, combining a border crossing with rocket barrages. Islamic Jihad joins the attack.

    Potential Outcomes of the Ongoing Conflict

    • Israel’s Military Superiority: Israel is not under an existential threat from Hamas, and the outcome of the conflict is expected to favor Israel. A massive ground incursion into Gaza may follow to restore morale, re-establish strategic dominance, and rescue captives.
    • Reevaluation of Israeli Strategies: The conflict’s experiences, including intelligence failures and overreliance on high-tech missile defense and artificial intelligence, may compel Israel to revise its strategic doctrines.
    • Impact on Non-State Arab Militias: Depending on the conflict’s endgame, it could potentially boost the standing of non-state Arab militias such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and others in the region.
    • Geographic Confinement: The crisis is likely to remain geographically confined to Gaza and its immediate surroundings, due to limited support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the region.
    • The Palestinian Authority’s Dilemma: The Palestinian Authority is divided between the West Bank and Gaza, with Fatah losing credibility. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are capitalizing on this to establish their presence in the West Bank.
    • Regional Non-Support for Hamas: Regionally, there is little support for Hamas, except for Turkey. Egypt, in particular, does not favor Hamas, given its past ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Gulf monarchies, except Qatar, strongly disapprove of Hamas.
    • Iran’s Involvement: Iran has been a mentor to Hamas and Islamic Jihad and has attempted to supply weapons to Gaza. Iran’s involvement could escalate the crisis further.

    Impact on the Region

    • Risk of Delay in Regional Diplomacy: The crisis may delay regional diplomatic efforts, including the potential rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, due to Israel’s reluctance to make concessions sought by Riyadh.
    • Repercussions for the Abraham Accords: The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and some Arab states, could face challenges due to the ongoing conflict.
    • Potential Iranian Gains: Iran may feel emboldened by the conflict, potentially affecting regional dynamics and tensions.

    Impact on India

    • While India is not directly affected, it could feel some indirect effects, such as an oil price rise, impacts on the Indian diaspora, and potential setbacks for regional economic initiatives.
    • However, India’s reputation as a stable and fast-growing economy may be enhanced in this context.

    Conclusion

    • The Toofan Al-Aqsa crisis has regional implications that could alter the dynamics in the Middle East. As the situation evolves, it remains essential for stakeholders, including India, to monitor developments closely and prepare for potential repercussions while seeking avenues for diplomatic engagement and stability in the region.

    Must read:

    India’s Evolving Relations with Israel and Palestine

  • Maldives Presidential Elections: Geopolitical Implications

    maldives

    Central Idea

    • The Maldives’ presidential election run-off is set to “safeguard the country’s independence and sovereignty” amidst strong ties with India.
    • In addition to the presidential election, Maldivians will vote in a referendum next month to decide whether to switch to a parliamentary system of governance.

    Key Points and Geopolitical Significance

    [A] Electoral System

    • French-Style System: The Maldivian electoral system resembles France’s, requiring a candidate to secure over 50% of votes for victory. A runoff occurs if no candidate surpasses this threshold in the first round, with the top two candidates competing.

    [B] History of Maldivian Presidency

    • Executive Presidency: The Maldives adopted the Executive Presidency in 1968. Initially, it operated as a single-party system until 2008 when political reforms led to a multi-party system.
    • Abdul Gayoom’s Era: Maumoon Abdul Gayoom served as President for 30 years, from 1978 to 2008, during which he faced political protests and thwarted a coup attempt with India’s assistance in 1988.
    • Political Reforms: In 2004, Gayoom initiated political reforms, leading to the registration of political parties in 2005 and the adoption of a new Constitution in 2008, enabling presidential elections every five years.

    India’s Relations with Maldives

    • Mixed Relations: India’s engagement with Maldivian politics has seen fluctuations. President Solih’s government has had the most favourable relations with India thus far.
    • Gayoom and Nasheed Eras: India closely worked with Abdul Gayoom for three decades. When Nasheed assumed power in 2008, India supported his government initially. However, Nasheed later leaned toward China, cancelling a major infrastructure project with India in 2012.
    • Yameen’s Pro-China Stance: Abdulla Yameen, who took office in 2013, pursued a pro-China foreign policy, including joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative. India’s reluctance to provide loans due to human rights concerns led Yameen to turn to Beijing.
    • Solih’s Election: President Solih’s victory in the 2018 elections was a relief for India, signifying a shift in bilateral relations. PM Modi attended Solih’s swearing-in ceremony.
    • Stronger Ties: India provided rapid assistance, including vaccines, during the COVID-19 pandemic, further strengthening relations. Bilateral projects in Maldives have multiplied, and defense cooperation has expanded, with India training Maldivian security personnel and providing military equipment.

    Current Election Landscape

    • Solih’s Challengers: President Solih is facing competition from Opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu, who emerged as the consensus candidate after former President Abdulla Yameen’s disqualification.
    • Proxy for Yameen: Muizzu is seen as a proxy for Yameen and has made statements raising concerns for India. He has threatened to terminate agreements with foreign countries and withdraw Indian troops stationed in the Maldives.
    • Low Turnout: The election has seen a lower voter turnout compared to previous ones, with 79% participation in the first round. This low turnout is a concern in the context of Maldives’ democratic transition.

    Geopolitical Ramifications

    • China’s Influence: Under President Abdulla Yameen’s rule from 2013 to 2017, the Maldives aligned with China, participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (i.e. String of Pearls) and receiving substantial loans, including funding for major infrastructure projects.
    • India’s Concern: India has a keen interest in maintaining influence in its “backyard” in the Indian Ocean and keeping Chinese influence at bay. India has invested heavily in Maldivian infrastructure and deepened security cooperation, which has raised concerns of establishing a strategic military presence.
    • Western Nations’ Watchful Eye: Western nations, including the US, UK, and Australia, are closely monitoring the election as part of their efforts to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The opening of embassies by these countries in the Maldives underscores its strategic significance.

    Conclusion

    • Geopolitical Implications: The Maldivian presidential runoff and the country’s relationship with India and China hold significant geopolitical implications. The outcome will shape the nation’s foreign policy direction.
    • India’s Interests: India’s interests in Maldives include defense cooperation, economic partnerships, and maintaining regional stability. The election’s result will be closely monitored to assess its impact on these interests and the future trajectory of Maldives’ foreign relations.

  • India-Saudi Arabia Relations

    What’s the news?

    • Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s India visit showcased a significant infrastructure project linking India to Europe. It also bolstered economic, energy, and defense cooperation through crucial agreements, underscoring his influential role in shaping the India-Saudi Arabia relationship.

    Central idea

    • During his New Delhi visit, Prince Mohammed’s announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, challenging China’s Belt and Road Initiative, marked a significant milestone in bilateral ties. His extended stay for a state visit and the inaugural India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council meeting underscored the relationship’s growing significance.

    Historical Foundations

    • Diplomatic relations between India and Saudi Arabia date back to 1947, reflecting centuries of socio-cultural and economic ties.
    • The watershed moment in their relationship occurred during King Abdullah’s visit to India in 200, which led to the Delhi Declaration.
    • Subsequently, the Riyadh Declaration in 2010 elevated their ties to a strategic partnership. Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Riyadh in 2016 marked enhanced cooperation in various domains, highlighted by the conferment of Saudi Arabia’s highest civilian honor upon him.

    Economic Ties: Driving India-Saudi Arabia Relations

    • Bilateral Trade:
    • In the fiscal year 2022–23, India and Saudi Arabia recorded a remarkable bilateral trade value of $52.76 billion, underscoring the depth of their economic engagement.
    • This bilateral trade figure accounted for 4.53% of India’s total trade during the same period, reflecting the significance of Saudi Arabia as a trade partner.
    • Investments in Saudi Arabia:
    • As of January 2022, a total of 2,783 Indian companies had registered as joint ventures or 100% owned entities in Saudi Arabia.
    • These investments collectively amounted to approximately $2 billion, showcasing the strong presence of Indian corporate giants such as L&T, Tata, Wipro, TCS, TCIL, and Shapoorji Pallonji in the Saudi market.
    • Saudi Investments in India:
    • Saudi Arabia reciprocates India’s economic overtures with substantial investments in various sectors.
    • Notable Saudi investors in India include Aramco, SABIC, Zamil, e-holidays, and the Al Batterjee Group, with a cumulative investment reaching $3.15 billion as of March 2022.
    • Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF):
    • The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) has emerged as a pivotal player in strengthening economic ties between the two nations.
    • PIF has strategically invested in several Indian startups, including Delhivery, FirstCry, Grofers, Ola, OYO, Paytm, and PolicyBazaar, through the SoftBank Vision Fund.
    • In June 2020, PIF announced a substantial investment of $1.49 billion (equating to a 2.32% stake) in Reliance Industries’ Jio Platforms, followed by a $1.3 billion investment (2.04% stake) in Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd. in November 2020.
    • PIF’s interest in the Indian market extends to the agriculture and food sectors, with the acquisition of a 29.91% stake in Daawat Foods Ltd. in May 2020, with an investment of $17.23 million.
    • West Coast Refinery and Petrochemicals Project:
    • Among the most significant proposed investments is the $44 billion West Coast Refinery and Petrochemicals Project in Maharashtra.
    • This mega project is a collaborative effort between Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, and an Indian consortium comprising Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation.

    Energy Cooperation: India’s Vital Link with Saudi Arabia

    • Crude Oil Supply:
    • Saudi Arabia stood as India’s third-largest source of crude oil and petroleum products in FY23.
    • India imported a substantial 39.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of crude oil from Saudi Arabia during the fiscal year, constituting a significant 16.7% of India’s total crude oil imports.
    • LPG Imports:
    • Liquid petroleum gas (LPG) is a vital component of India’s energy mix, and Saudi Arabia contributes significantly to this sector.
    • India imported 7.85 MMT of LPG from Saudi Arabia in FY23, accounting for a noteworthy 11.2% of India’s total petroleum product imports during the same period.

    Defence Partnership: Strengthening India-Saudi Arabia Security Ties

    • High-Level Visits:
    • A pivotal moment in the strengthening of defence ties was the landmark visit of General Manoj Mukund Naravane, the then Chief of the Indian Army, to Saudi Arabia in December 2020.
    • This visit underscored the commitment of both nations to enhancing their defence cooperation.
    • Naval Cooperation:
    • India and Saudi Arabia have forged extensive naval cooperation, as exemplified by the initiation of the bilateral naval exercise Al Mohed al Hindi.
    • Two editions of this exercise have already been successfully conducted, further cementing their maritime partnership.
    • Defence Industries and Capacity-Building:
    • Both countries have actively engaged in cooperation in the realm of defence industries and capacity-building.
    • This signifies their shared interest in fostering self-reliance and enhancing their defence capabilities.
    • Joint Development and Production:
    • The joint statement issued during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit emphasized the deepening of defence cooperation and expressed mutual interest in exploring avenues for joint development and production of defence equipment.

    Indians in Saudi Arabia: A Strong and Respected Community

    • A Living Bridge: Comprising more than 2.4 million individuals, this community is not only an essential part of Saudi society but also serves as a living bridge connecting India and Saudi Arabia.
    • Contributions to Development:
    • The Indian diaspora in Saudi Arabia plays an active and constructive role in the nation’s progress and development.
    • Members of this community are engaged in various sectors, including construction, healthcare, education, and services, contributing their expertise and labor to the kingdom’s advancement.
    • Humanitarian Assistance:
    • The joint statement issued during high-level visits and diplomatic interactions highlights the strong bond between India and Saudi Arabia. It acknowledges Saudi Arabia’s commitment to taking excellent care of the Indian diaspora, as exemplified by their support during critical situations.
    • In particular, Saudi Arabia’s assistance in the evacuation of Indian nationals stranded in Sudan through Jeddah under Operation Kaveri is a testament to the collaborative spirit and humanitarian approach of both nations.
    • Facilitating Religious Pilgrimage:
    • Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in facilitating religious pilgrimages for Indian citizens.
    • The support provided to Indian Hajj and Umrah pilgrims underscores the kingdom’s commitment to ensuring a smooth and spiritually fulfilling journey for Indian Muslims.

    The Importance of Mohammed bin Salman

    • Vision 2030 and Domestic Reforms:
    • MBS has introduced Vision 2030, a transformative plan aimed at modernizing Saudi Arabia’s economy and society.
    • Notable reforms include granting women the right to drive, opening cinemas, welcoming tourists, and diversifying the economy away from oil.
    • Economic Transformation:
    • Under Vision 2030, MBS has spearheaded efforts to attract foreign investments, boost non-oil sectors, and create jobs.
    • The plan has led to substantial investments in technology, entertainment, and tourism.
    • Regional Diplomacy:
    • MBS has pursued an active foreign policy to enhance Saudi Arabia’s regional influence and stability.
    • This includes initiatives to reconcile with regional adversaries like Iran and engage with Israel.
    • Strengthened Global Ties:
    • MBS has worked to bolster Saudi Arabia’s relationships with global powers, including the United States, India, and China.
    • These partnerships encompass economic collaborations, strategic alliances, and military cooperation.
    • Controversies and Criticisms:
    • MBS has faced criticism and controversy, notably concerning human rights issues and the Jamal Khashoggi case.
    • These events have affected Saudi Arabia’s international image and diplomatic relations.

    Conclusion

    • The India-Saudi Arabia partnership is poised for further growth, fueled by economic, energy, defence, and cultural ties. As Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman continues to navigate the global stage, India is actively engaging with Saudi Arabia to bolster this pragmatic partnership for mutual benefit and regional stability.

  • India urges Sri Lanka to fulfill commitments for Tamil aspirations

    tamil

    Central Idea

    • India has expressed its concerns about the slow progress made by Sri Lanka in fulfilling its commitments to address the aspirations of the Tamil community.
    • India’s representative at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva emphasized the inadequacy of progress.

    Tamil issue in Sri Lanka

    • Violent persecution against the Tamil population erupted in the form of the 1956, 1958, 1977, 1981, and 1983 anti-Tamil pogroms in Sri Lanka.
    • Over 13 years since the end of Sri Lanka’s civil war, in which tens of thousands of civilians were killed and disappeared, survivors continue demanding justice and accountability for war-time crimes.
    • In the post-war years, Sri Lanka’s human rights defenders have frequently flagged concerns over persisting militarisation, especially in the Tamil-majority north and east; repression, and the shrinking space for dissent.

    Why discuss this?

    • Reconciliation and Human Rights: Despite the war’s conclusion, the country still faces challenges in reconciling its ethnic divisions and ensuring the protection of human rights.
    • Economic Crisis: In addition to its unresolved conflict, Sri Lanka has experienced a severe economic crisis that began in the previous year, leaving a significant portion of its population vulnerable. The crisis has led to increased poverty levels and food insecurity for many households.

    UN Human Rights Council’s Concerns

    • Political and Democratic Reforms: The UN Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights highlighted the delay in implementing political and democratic reforms, even a year after a significant protest movement.
    • Food Insecurity: UNHRC pointed out that approximately 37% of households in Sri Lanka face acute food insecurity, indicating the extent of the economic challenges.
    • Political Participation: Delays in holding local government elections and reconstituting Provincial Councils have limited citizens’ political participation and free expression.
    • Land Acquisition: The UN official raised concerns about escalating tensions in Sri Lanka’s north and east due to land acquisition for military installations, conservation efforts at Hindu or Muslim sites, and forestry protection.

    India’s Position

    • Power Devolution: India reiterated its support for the aspirations of the Tamil community for equality, justice, dignity, and peace.
    • Limited sovereignty: It also emphasized its commitment to the unity, territorial integrity, and sovereignty of Sri Lanka by implementing the 13th Amendment.

    UN Review and Sri Lanka’s Response

    • The UN Human Rights Council is currently reviewing Sri Lanka’s commitments, and there will be no vote on a resolution at this session.
    • While acknowledging Sri Lanka’s initiatives in truth-seeking and reconciliation, the High Commissioner’s report emphasized the need for urgent confidence-building measures for genuine reconciliation and transitional justice.
    • The Sri Lankan government rejected the report and labelled previous Council resolutions as intrusive and polarizing.

    Conclusion

    • India’s call for Sri Lanka to fulfil its commitments to address Tamil aspirations reflects ongoing concerns about the progress of reconciliation and human rights in the country.
    • The economic crisis and delays in political reforms have further complicated the situation, necessitating meaningful actions to promote genuine reconciliation and transitional justice.
    • The review at the UN Human Rights Council serves as an important platform for monitoring Sri Lanka’s efforts in this regard.

  • Armenia and Azerbaijan Conflict

    Central Idea

    • Three Armenian soldiers have been killed in firing from Azerbaijan as tensions between the two countries persist.

    Consider this PYQ:

    Q.The area is known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to: (CSP 2015)

    a) Central Asia
    b) Middle East
    c) South-East Asia
    d) Central Africa

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”ppzqldwmt2″ question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

    What is the dispute?

    • Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region that is inside Azerbaijan but is run by ethnic Armenians, declared martial law and mobilized their male populations.
    • Armenia said Azerbaijan had carried out an air and artillery attack on Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Epicentre: The Nagorno-Karabakh region

    • Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan in a conflict that broke out as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
    • A ceasefire was agreed in 1994 after thousands of people were killed and many more displaced.
    • Azerbaijan and Armenia frequently accuse each other of attacks around Nagorno-Karabakh and along the separate Azeri-Armenian frontier.

    Economics behind the clashes

    • The clashes prompted a flurry of diplomacy to prevent a new flare-up of a decades-old conflict between majority Christian Armenia and mainly Muslim Azerbaijan.
    • Pipelines shipping Caspian oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan to the world pass close to Nagorno-Karabakh.
    • The clashes have raised concerns about instability in the South Caucasus, a corridor for pipelines transporting oil and gas to world markets.