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GS Paper: GS2

  • Monkeypox is ‘Public Health Emergency’

    The World Health Organization’s Director-General has declared monkeypox a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) July 23, 2022.

    What is PHEIC?

    Definition: Under the International Health Regulations (IHR), a public health emergency is defined as “an extraordinary event which is determined, as provided in these Regulations: to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease; and to potentially require a coordinated international response”.

    What criteria does the WHO follow to declare PHEIC?

    • PHEIC is declared in the event of some “serious public health events” that may endanger international public health.
    • The responsibility of declaring an event as an emergency lies with the Director-General of the WHO and requires the convening of a committee of members.

    Implications of a PHEIC being declared

    The PHEIC is the highest level of alert the global health body can issue.

    • There are some implications of declaring a PHEIC for the host country.
    • Only polio and SARS-CoV-2 were ongoing PHEIC prior to monkeypox.
    • Declaring a PHEIC may lead to restrictions on travel and trade.

    Back2Basics: Monkeypox

    • The monkeypox virus is an orthopoxvirus, which is a genus of viruses that also includes the variola virus, which causes smallpox, and vaccinia virus, which was used in the smallpox vaccine.
    • It causes symptoms similar to smallpox, although they are less severe.
    • While vaccination eradicated smallpox worldwide in 1980, monkeypox continues to occur in a swathe of countries in Central and West Africa, and has on occasion showed up elsewhere.
    • According to the WHO, two distinct clade are identified: the West African clade and the Congo Basin clade, also known as the Central African clade.

     

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  • Russia, Ukraine seal grain exports deal

    Kyiv and Moscow penned a landmark agreement with Turkey and the UN to unblock Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports after a Russian blockade raised fears of a global food crisis.

    What is the deal about?

    • The deal was agreed through UN and Turkish mediation.
    • It establishes safe corridors along which Ukrainian ships can come in and out of three designated Black Sea ports in and around Odessa.
    • Both sides also pledged not to attack ships on the way in or out.

    Why such move?

    • It will bring relief for developing countries on the edge of bankruptcy and the most vulnerable people on the edge of famine.
    • The five-month war has already displaced millions and left thousands dead.
    • It is being fought across one of Europe’s most fertile regions by two of the world’s biggest grain producers.
    • Up to 25 million tonnes of wheat and other grain have been blocked in Ukrainian ports by Russian warships and landmines Kyiv has laid to avert a feared amphibious assault.

    Why was the grain export deal signed?

    • Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, but Russia’s invasion of the country and naval blockade of its ports have halted shipments.
    • Some grain is being transported through Europe by rail, road and river, but the prices of vital commodities like wheat and barley have soared during the nearly five-month war.
    • Ukrainian and Russian military delegations reached a tentative agreement last week on a UN plan that would also allow Russia to export its grain and fertilizers.
    • Ukraine is expected to export 22 million tons of grain and other agricultural products that have been stuck in Black Sea ports due to the war.

    What is the grain export deal?

    • The deal makes provisions for the safe passage of ships.
    • It foresees the establishment of a control center in Istanbul, to be staffed by UN, Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian officials, to run and coordinate the process.
    • Ships would undergo inspections to ensure they are not carrying weapons.
    • Ukraine has insisted that no Russian ship would escort vessels and that there would be no Russian representative present at Ukrainian ports.
    • Ukraine also plans an immediate military response in case of provocations.

     

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  • What is a Private Member’s Bill?

    Opposition members protested against the introduction of a private member’s Bill on the repeal of The Places of Worship (Special Provisions) Act, 1991, in the Rajya Sabha.

    Private Member’s Bill

    • A private member’s Bill is different from a government Bill and is piloted by an MP who is not a minister. An MP who is not a minister is a private member.
    • Individual MPs may introduce private member’s Bill to draw the government’s attention to what they might see as issues requiring legislative intervention.

    Difference between private and government Bills

    • While both private members and ministers take part in the lawmaking process, Bills introduced by private members are referred to as private member’s Bills and those introduced by ministers are called government Bills.
    • Government Bills are backed by the government and also reflect its legislative agenda.
    • The admissibility of a Private Bill is decided by the Chairman in the case of the Rajya Sabha and the Speaker in the case of the Lok Sabha.
    • Before the Bill can be listed for introduction, the Member must give at least a month’s notice, for the House Secretariat to examine it for compliance with constitutional provisions and rules on legislation.
    • While a government Bill can be introduced and discussed on any day, a private member’s bill can only be introduced and discussed on Fridays.

    Has a private member’s bill ever become a law?

    • No private member’s Bill has been passed by Parliament since 1970.
    • To date, Parliament has passed 14 such Bills, six of them in 1956.
    • In the 14th Lok Sabha, of the over 300 private member’s Bills introduced, roughly four per cent were discussed, the remaining 96 per cent lapsed without a single dialogue.
    • The selection of Bills for discussion is done through a ballot.

    Back2Basics: Places of Worship Act, 1991

    • It was passed in 1991 by the P V Narasimha Rao-led government.
    • The law seeks to maintain the “religious character” of places of worship as it was in 1947 — except in the case of the Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid dispute, which was already in court.
    • The law was brought in at the peak of the Ram Mandir movement, exactly a year before the demolition of the Babri Masjid.
    • Introducing the law, then Home Minister S B Chavan said in Parliament that it was adopted to curb communal tension.

    What are its provisions?

    The objective of the law describes it as an Act to prohibit conversion of any place of worship.

    • It aims to provide for the maintenance of the religious character of any place of worship as it existed on the 15th day of August 1947, and for matters connected therewith or incidental thereto”.
    • Sections 3 and 4 of the Act declared that the religious character of a place of worship shall continue to be the same as it was on August 15, 1947.
    • No person shall convert any place of worship of any religious denomination into one of a different denomination or section.
    • Section 4(2) says that all suits, appeals or others regarding converting the character of a place of worship, that was pending on August 15, 1947, will stand abated when the Act commences and no fresh proceedings can be filed.
    • However, legal proceedings can be initiated after the commencement of the Act if the change of status took place after the cut-off date of August 15, 1947.

    What does it say about Ayodhya, and what else is exempted?

    • Act does not to apply to Ram Janma Bhumi Babri Masjid.

    Besides the Ayodhya dispute, the Act also exempted:

    • any place of worship that is an ancient and historical monument or an archaeological site, or is covered by the Ancient Monuments and Archaeological Sites and Remains Act, 1958;
    • a suit that has been finally settled or disposed of;
    • any dispute that has been settled by the parties or conversion of any place that took place by acquiescence before the Act commenced.

    What has the Supreme Court said about the Act?

    • In the 2019 Ayodhya verdict, the Constitution Bench led by former CJI Ranjan Gogoi referred to the law and said it manifests the secular values of the Constitution and strictly prohibits retrogression.
    • In providing a guarantee for the preservation of the religious character of places, Parliament determined that independence from colonial rule furnishes a constitutional basis for healing the injustices of the past.
    • The law addresses itself to the State as much as to every citizen of the nation. Its norms bind those who govern the affairs of the nation at every level.
    • Those norms implement the Fundamental Duties under Article 51A and are hence positive mandates to every citizen as well.

    Why is the law under challenge?

    • A politician has challenged the law on the ground that violates secularism.
    • He has also argued that the cut-off date of August 15, 1947, is “arbitrary, irrational and retrospective” and prohibits Hindus, Jains, Buddhists, and Sikhs from approaching courts to “reclaim” their places of worship.
    • Such places, he argued, were “invaded” and “encroached” upon by “fundamentalist barbaric invaders”.
    • The right-wing politicians have opposed the law even when it was introduced, arguing that the Centre has no power to legislate on “pilgrimages” or “burial grounds” which is under the state list.
    • Another criticism against the law is that the cut-off is the date of Independence, which means that the status quo determined by a colonial power is considered final.

     

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  • ‘Advantage New Delhi’ in Sri Lanka’s India lifeline

    Context

    Ranil Wickremesinghe’s election as the President of Sri Lanka in a crucial Parliament vote on July 20, 2022, gives India an opportunity to take the lead in the foreign aid game in its neighbourhood.

    Background of the crisis in Sri Lanka

    • Sri Lanka has been facing economic turbulence since its pre-emptive default on its foreign debt obligations in mid-April this year.
    • Following the debt default and a shortage of dollars, the Sri Lankan economy is experiencing stagflation.
    •  Inflation has spiralled to over 50%, translating into higher food and fuel prices.
    •  Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis since its independence in 1948 is due to a tepid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict shock and economic mismanagement under the administration of the Rajapaksas.
    • Sri Lanka is also facing challenges in getting foreign aid, as 60% of the world’s poorest countries are also experiencing debt distress.

    Opportunities for India

    •  In the first six months of 2022, Indian aid worth $3.8 billion has flowed to Sri Lanka through loans, swaps and grants.
    • This is India’s largest bilateral aid programme in recent times.
    •  Stabilising Sri Lanka’s economy could prove to be a major win for Indian’s ‘neighbourhood-first’ policy.
    • Moreover, once the Sri Lankan economy stabilises, India can deepen its trade and investment linkages with Sri Lanka, transcending the current humanitarian aid relationship.
    • On the other hand, an unstable Sri Lankan economy could pose security risks to India and lead to a flood of refugees across the Palk Strait.
    • This is an opportunity for India to strengthen bilateral and regional partnerships.
    • Countering Chinese influence: In recent years, China has emerged as a major partner for Sri Lanka, especially for infrastructure projects, many of which are under scrutiny now.
    • This provides an opportunity for India to upscale its aid and cement its first mover advantage over China by leading an aid consortium for Sri Lanka, working closely with other friendly countries such as the United States, Japan and the European Union as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    Why China is reluctant to help?

    • China worries that unilaterally restructuring Sri Lanka’s debt or giving it moratoria would set a new precedent in its lending practices, leading to a queue of similarly distressed countries seeking debt relief from Beijing.
    • Furthermore, China, which is a G2 economy, and wanting to challenge the U.S., does not want its reputation to be tarnished by bailing out a floundering economy.

    Steps Sri Lanka needs to take

    • Concluding the talks with Sri Lanka: The government must show that it is serious about stabilising the economy by concluding talks on an IMF programme which will increase taxes and utility prices to raise revenue and increase interest rates to control inflation.
    • Economic reforms: It has to implement structural reforms to make the economy more open to trade and investment and allow market forces to determine resource allocation.
    • National consensus on IMF program: It has to build national consensus on implementing the IMF programme and reforms by explaining that this is the only solution to the crisis.
    • Anti-corruption policies: It has to restore the rule of law and enforce strong anti-corruption policies (including asset declarations for all parliamentarians and a strong anti-corruption office supported by the United Nations).
    • Reset foreign policy: It has to reset foreign policy towards a more neutral direction.

    Conclusion

    With political will and the right set of policies, Sri Lanka stands a sporting chance of achieving some economic normalcy within the next three years. India stands to gain by supporting Sri Lanka in its hour of need. A friend in need is a friend indeed.

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  • Need for a debate on freebies

    Context

    Many in India have been lamenting for quite some time the culture of political populism and “freebies”

    Fiscal stress due to subsidies

    • Technically, a subsidy is the unrecovered cost of any service (or good) provided by the government.
    • Freebies such as distribution of televisions, free cycles or laptops are the most highly visible and discussed freebies, but they are fiscally insignificant compared to the much larger subsidies on food, fertiliser and petroleum.
    • Though curbed in recent years, these “visible” subsidies in government budgets remain a major source of fiscal stress.
    • Then there is a range of “invisible” subsidies, especially in state government budgets, not always recognised as such, but which are also very large.
    • The deficit between the receipts and expenditure of a government department in providing a service is the unrecovered cost of providing that service, that is, a subsidy, even if not recognised as such in the budget.
    • Examples include the unrecovered cost of providing public education, healthcare, irrigation, power, water supply and sanitation.

    Some facts about the subsidies

    • Relation with per capita income: The volume of subsidies as a proportion of GDP comes down with rising per capita incomes, but very gradually.
    • The total volume of subsidies came down from 13 per cent of GDP way back in 1987-88 to a little over 10 per cent by 2015-16, almost 30 years later.
    • Contribution of central government: The central government accounts for less than 30 per cent of total subsidies, provided mainly for economic services including food.
    • Merit subsidies: From the total volume there is a very small number of “merit subsidies” which might be warranted in public interest.
    • All governments have provided a food subsidy for poor households by bi-partisan consensus for decades.
    • Then there is basic education and health services which have large benefits for society beyond the benefit accruing to the immediate recipient of the service, what economists call “externalities”.
    • Also in case of expenditure on water supply and sanitation, where again the benefit to society is much larger than that accruing to the immediate recipient of the service — for example, prevention of infectious diseases.
    • These four “merit” subsidies account for only a third of total subsidies.
    • Unwarranted freebies: Thus, two-thirds of total subsidies, about 6 per cent of GDP, are unwarranted freebies which should be eliminated.

    Way forward

    • Phasing out the unwarranted freebies: If central and state governments could step beyond their business as usual budgets and take bold measures to phase out these unwarranted freebies, along with much of the tax exemptions and concessions, which amount to about 5 per cent of GDP, that would free up huge fiscal space.
    • Universal basic income: There is a growing demand in many advanced countries, which already have large social security schemes, to provide a minimum “Universal Basic Income” for all.
    •  Providing a small safety net for the poor in countries like India, which have no social security system, is the least that any caring government can do.
    • MGNREGA is the largest and longest-standing income support programme in India for the unemployed in rural areas.
    • But it is often not regarded as such as it entails payment against performance of work.
    • The usual complaint against such schemes is that they artificially raise rural wages, reduce the incentive to search for work, and that the poor blow up these freebees on liquor etc.
    • Since MGNREGA and similar schemes in the states pay much less than the minimum wage, they obviously cannot raise rural wages beyond what is the legal minimum wage anyway.

    Conclusion

    Phasing out the unwarranted subsidies will enable a massive reduction in the combined fiscal deficit of the Centre and the states, while at the same time stepping up required expenditure on education, health and infrastructure.

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  • Droupadi Murmu elected 15th President of India

    Former Jharkhand Governor Droupadi Murmu was elected the 15th President of India, the first (santhal) tribal woman to be appointed to the position and the youngest as well.

    Here’s a look at some interesting facts about the past Presidents of India:

    * Rajendra Prasad was the first President of India. He is also the only President to have served two consecutive terms.

    * Dr. Sarvepalli Radhakrishnan was the second President. He was the first to have served as Vice President before being elected to the top post.

    * Zakir Hussain was the third President of India, and the first Muslim President. He also was the first President to die in office. He was the shortest serving President of India (less than two years).

    * On his election, fourth President V.V. Giri became the first one to have also been an acting President.

    * Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed was the fifth President and the second Muslim to hold the post. The Emergency was declared during his tenure. He is the second President to have died in office.

    * Neelam Sanjiva Reddy was the sixth President. He became the youngest to take the post at the age of 64. He is also the only one to have been elected unopposed.

    * Giani Zail Singh was the seventh President of India and the first Sikh President.

    * Eighth President Ramaswamy Venkataraman was the first President to have worked with four Prime Ministers and appointed three: V. P. Singh, Chandra Shekhar and P. V. Narasimha Rao.

    * Shankar Dayal Sharma was the 9th President. He also worked with four PMs and appointed three of them in his last year: Atal Bihari Vajpayee, H. D. Deve Gowda, I. K. Gujral.

    * Kocheril Raman Narayanan was the 10th President of India and the first Dalit President. At 76 years and 271 days, he was the oldest President to be elected.

    * APJ Abdul Kalam was the 11th President and first Muslim President to serve an entire term.

    * Elected as the 12th President, Pratibha Patil was the first woman President of India.

    * Pranab Mukherjee, the 13th President, was the first Bengali to hold the post.

    * 14th President Ram Nath Kovind was the first BJP candidate to be elected to the post.

    * 11 Presidents have been members of a political party before being elected. 8 were from Congress, 2 from BJP, 1 from Janata Party, and the rest were Independents.

    The President of India

    • The President of India is recognized as the first citizen of the country and the head of the state.
    • The elected President of India is a part of the Union Executive along with several other members of the parliament including the Prime Minister, Attorney-General of India and the Vice – president.

    Electing the President

    • The provisions of the election of the President are laid down in Article 54 of the Constitution of India.
    • The Presidential and Vice-Presidential Election Act 1952 led to the establishment of this Constitutional provision.

    Qualifications to become the President of India

    The qualification of being the President of India are given below:

    • He/ She must be an Indian citizen
    • A person must have completed the age of 35.
    • A person must be qualified for election as a member of the House of the People.
    • Must not hold a government (central or state) office of profit
    • A person is eligible for election as President if he/she is holding the office of President or Vice-President.

    Actual course of election

    • The President of India is elected indirectly by an Electoral College following the system of proportional representation utilizing a single transferable vote system and secret ballots.
    • MPs and MLAs vote based on parity and uniformity values.

    Electoral College composition-

    (1) Legislative Assemblies of the States:

    • According to the provision of Article 333, every state’s Legislative Assembly must consist of not less than 60 members but not more than 500 members.

    (2) Council of States:

    • 12 members are nominated by the President of India based on skills or knowledge in literature, arts, science, and social service to act as the members of the Council of States.
    • In total, 238 represent act as representatives from both the States and Union Territories.

    (2) House of the People:

    • The composition of the House of People consists of 530 members (no exceeding) from the state territorial constituencies.
    • They are elected through direct election.
    • The President further elects 20 more members (no exceeding) from the Union Territories.

    Uniformity in the scale of representation of states

    To maintain the proportionality between the values of the votes, the following formula is used:

    Value of vote of an MLA= total no. of the population of the particular state/ number of elected MLAs of that state divided by 1000.

    Single vote system

    • During the presidential election, one voter can cast only one vote.
    • While the MLAs vote may vary state to state, the MPs vote always remain constant.

    MPs and MLAs vote balance

    • The number of the total value of the MPs votes must equal the total value of the MLAs to maintain the State and the Union balance.

    Quotas:

    • The candidate reaching the winning quota or exceeding it is the winner.
    • The formula sued is ‘Winning quota total number of poll/ no.of seats + 1’.

    Voters’ preference:

    • During the presidential election, the voter casts his vote in favor of his first preferred candidate.
    • However, in case the first preference candidate does not touch the winning quota, the vote automatically goes to the second preference.
    • The first preferred candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and the votes in his/her favor are transferred to the remaining candidates.

    Why need Proportional representation?

    • The President of India is elected through proportional representation using the means of the single transferable vote (Article 55(3)).
    • It allows the independent candidates and minority parties to have the chance of representation.
    • It allows the practice of coalition with many voters under one government.
    • This system ensures that candidates who are elected don’t represent the majority of the electorate’s opinion.

    Why is President indirectly elected?

    If Presidents were to be elected directly, it would become very complicated.

    • It would, in fact, be a disaster because the public doesn’t have absolute clarity of how the president-ship runs or if the candidate fits the profile of a president.
    • Another reason why the direct election system isn’t favorable is that the candidate running for the president’s profile will have to campaign around the country with the aid of a political party.
    • And, this will result in massive political instability.
    • Moreover, it would be difficult and impossible for the government to hand out election machinery (given the vast population of India).
    • This will cost the government financially and may end up affecting the economy as well.
    • The indirect election system is a respectable system for the First Man of India (rightly deserving).
    • The system/method of indirect electing of the president also allows the states to maintain neutrality and minimize hostility.

     

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  • Women have Right to Safe Abortion: SC

    Denying an unmarried woman the right to a safe abortion violates her personal autonomy and freedom, the Supreme Court held in an order.

    What did the SC say?

    • A woman’s right to reproductive choice is an inseparable part of her personal liberty under Article 21 of the Constitution.
    • She has a sacrosanct right to bodily integrity, the court quoted from precedents.
    • The court said forcing a woman to continue with her pregnancy would not only be a violation of her bodily integrity but also aggravate her mental trauma.

    Indispensable clause of safety

    • The court ordered a medical board to be formed by the AIIMS to check whether it was safe to conduct an abortion on the woman and submit a report in a week.

    What is the case?

    • A Bench led by Justice D.Y. Chandrachud was hearing the appeal of a woman who wanted to abort her 24-week pregnancy after her relationship failed and her partner left her.
    • The lower court had taken an “unduly restrictive view” that her plea for a safe abortion was not covered under the Medical Termination of Pregnancy Act.
    • This was since the pregnancy arose from a consensual relationship outside wedlock.

    What was the last amendment?

    • The court noted that an amendment to the Act in 2021 had substituted the term ‘husband’ with ‘partner’, a clear signal that the law covered unmarried women within its ambit.

    Reiterating the live-in recognition

    • Chastising the lower court, the Bench said live-in relationships had already been recognised by the Supreme Court.
    • There were a significant number of people in social mainstream who see no wrong in engaging in pre-marital sex.
    • The law could not be used to quench “notions of social morality” and unduly interfere in their personal autonomy and bodily integrity.

    Back2Basics: Medical Termination of Pregnancy (MTP) Act

    • Abortion in India has been a legal right under various circumstances for the last 50 years since the introduction of the Medical Termination of Pregnancy (MTP) Act in 1971.
    • The Act was amended in 2003 to enable women’s access to safe and legal abortion services.
    • Abortion is covered 100% by the government’s public national health insurance funds, Ayushman Bharat and Employees’ State Insurance with the package rate for surgical abortion.

    The idea of terminating your pregnancy cannot originate by choice and is purely circumstantial. There are four situations under which a legal abortion is performed:

    1. If continuation of the pregnancy poses any risks to the life of the mother or mental health
    2. If the foetus has any severe abnormalities
    3. If pregnancy occurred as a result of failure of contraception (but this is only applicable to married women)
    4. If pregnancy is a result of sexual assault or rape

    These are the key changes that the Medical Termination of Pregnancy (Amendment) Act, 2021, has brought in:

    1. The gestation limit for abortions has been raised from the earlier ceiling of 20 weeks to 24 weeks, but only for special categories of pregnant women such as rape or incest survivors. But this termination would need the approval of two registered doctors.
    2. All pregnancies up to 20 weeks require one doctor’s approval. The earlier law, the MTP Act 1971, required one doctor’s approval for pregnancies upto 12 weeks and two doctors’ for pregnancies between 12 and 20 weeks.
    3. Women can now terminate unwanted pregnancies caused by contraceptive failure, regardless of their marital status. Earlier the law specified that only a “married woman and her husband” could do this.
    4. There is also no upper gestation limit for abortion in case of foetal disability if so decided by a medical board of specialist doctors, which state governments and union territories’ administrations would set up.

     

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  • Russia resumes gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream Pipeline

    Russia restored critical gas supplies to Europe through Germany via the Nord Stream pipeline after 10 days of uncertainty in guise of maintenance.

    Nord Stream Pipeline

    • It is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.
    • It includes two active pipelines running from Vyborg to Lubmin near Greifswald forming the original Nord Stream, and two further pipelines under construction running from Ust-Luga to Lubmin termed Nord Stream 2.
    • In Lubmin the lines connect to the OPAL line to Olbernhau on the Czech border and to the NEL line to Rehden near Bremen.
    • The first line Nord Stream-1 was laid and inaugurated in 2011 and the second line in 2012.
    • At 1,222 km in length, Nord Stream is the longest sub-sea pipeline in the world, surpassing the Langeled pipeline.

    Why in news?

    • Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas, had feared that Moscow would not reopen the pipeline after the scheduled work and accused Moscow of using energy as a “weapon”.
    • The showdown came amid the worst tensions in several years over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    • Germany believes Russia is squeezing supplies in retaliation for Western sanctions over the war.

    Why is Russian gas so important?

    (1) Major chunk of energy

    • Russia supplied some 40% of Europe’s natural gas before the war.
    • That has dropped to around 15%, sending prices through the roof and straining energy-intensive industries.

    (2) Everyday use

    • Gas is used across a range of processes that most people never see – to forge steel to make cars, make glass bottles and pasteurise milk and cheese.
    • Companies warn that they often can’t switch overnight to other energy sources such as fuel oil or electricity to produce heat.

    (3) Fuel inflation

    • High energy prices are already threatening to cause a recession in Europe through record inflation, with consumers having less to spend as costs rise for food, fuel and utilities.
    • A complete cutoff could deal an even heavier blow to an already troubled economy.

    What is visible in Russia’s game plan?

    • Since the invasion, Russia’s revenue from exporting oil and gas to Europe has doubled over the average from recent years, to $95 billion.
    • So Putin has cash in hand and could calculate that painful utility bills and an energy recession could undermine public support for Ukraine in Europe and increase sentiment for a negotiated settlement in his favour.
    • It would be unwise to exclude the possibility that Russia could decide to forgo the revenue it gets from exporting gas to Europe in order to gain political leverage.

    What alternatives does Europe have?

    • The EU has turned to more-expensive liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which comes by ship from places like the US and Qatar.
    • Germany is fast-tracking construction of LNG import terminals on its North Sea coast, but that will take years.
    • But LNG alone can’t make up the gap.
    • Conservation and other energy sources are key.

    Could people freeze this winter?

    • Its unlikely homes, schools and hospitals will lose heat because governments are required to impose rationing first on businesses.
    • The German government also could allow gas suppliers to immediately pass on increases to customers.
    • The choices could include torpedoing industry and/or socking consumers with even higher bills.
    • The IEA recommends that European countries step up campaigns for people to conserve at home and plan to share gas in an emergency.

     

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  • India-Vietnam ties, from strong to stronger

    Context

    India and Vietnam are celebrating the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic relations.

    India-Vietnam relations background

    • Commonalities: India’s relations with Vietnam — some of which is based on a set of historical commonalities — predate any conflict between India and China as well as that between China and Vietnam.
    • Political and security engagement: As India pursues its ‘Act East Policy’, Vietnam has become a valuable partner in India’s political and security engagements in the Indo-Pacific region.

    Growing convergence between India and Vietnam

    • Convergence of strategic and economic interests: Bolstering friendship between the two countries is a natural outcome of a growing convergence of their strategic and economic interests, and also their common vision for peace, prosperity and their people.
    • Shared strategic concerns: The two countries are working to address shared strategic concerns (such as energy security and open and secure sea lines of communication), and make policy choices without undue external interference.
    • Given India’s broadening economic and strategic interests in the region and Vietnam’s desire for strategic autonomy, both countries will benefit from a stronger bilateral relationship.
    • Shared apprehension about China: India and Vietnam face territorial disputes with and shared apprehensions about their common neighbour, China.
    • Vietnam is of great strategic importance because its position enables it to control ‘the South China Sea — a true Mediterranean of the Pacific’.
    • The maritime domain, therefore, has become an essential element of India and Vietnam cooperation.
    • More importantly, India sees an open and stable maritime commons being essential to international trade and prosperity; therefore, it has an interest in protecting the sea lanes.
    • There are some other potential areas for New Delhi and Hanoi to further deepen collaboration, such as meaningful academic and cultural collaborations, shipbuilding, maritime connectivity, maritime education and research, coastal engineering, the blue economy, marine habitat conservation, and advance collaboration between maritime security agencies.

    Four factors responsible for growing maritime engagement with Vietnam

    • 1] Countering China: India’s aspiration to counter an assertive China by strengthening Vietnam’s military power.
    • 2] Security sea lines: With India’s increasing trade with East and Southeast Asia, India has begun to recognise the importance of its sea lines of communication beyond its geographical proximity; the South China Sea occupies a significant geostrategic and geo-economic position, resulting in India’s renewed interests in the South China Sea.
    • 3] Development in maritime domain: India desires to intensify its presence to track potential developments in the maritime domain that could affect its national interests.
    • 4] Naval partnership: The Indian Navy underlines the importance of a forward maritime presence and naval partnership that would be critical to deter potential adversaries.
    • India’s maritime strategic interests in the region are well established, including the fact that almost 55% of India’s trade with the Indo-Pacific region passes through the South China Sea.

    Strategic and defence cooperation

    • Ever since the formal declaration of a strategic partnership in 2007 and Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2016, the scope and scale of the India-Vietnam strategic and defence cooperation, particularly in the maritime domain, is deepening with a clear vision, institutional mechanisms.
    • The signing of ‘Joint Vision for Defence Cooperation’ and a memorandum of understanding on mutual logistics support in June 2022 has further strengthened mutual defence cooperation.
    • Enhancing Vietnam’s defence capabilities: While a U.S.$100 million Defence Line of Credit has been implemented, India has also announced early finalisation of another U.S.$500 million Defence Line of Credit to enhance Vietnam’s defence capability.
    • New Delhi has also agreed to expand military training and assist the Vietnam Navy’s strike capabilities.

    Cooperation in Indo-Pacific region

    •  India is willing to take a principled stand on territorial disputes in the hope that it contributes to the stabilisation of the Indo-Pacific.
    • Such positions align closely with Vietnam’s stance on the management of the South China Sea disputes.
    • The two countries are also engaging in wide-ranging practical cooperation in the maritime domain through a maritime security dialogue, naval exercises, ship visits, Coast Guard cooperation, and training and capacity building.
    • Working in various frameworks: Both countries have found mutual convergences on cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region and are synergising their efforts to work in bilateral as well as other sub-regional and multilateral frameworks, such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, ADMM-Plus or the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus.
    • Both countries are also looking at collaboration around the seven pillars of the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI).

    Conclusion

    The road map agreed upon by the leaders will be helpful in addressing common challenges and decisively navigating towards making an India-Vietnam partnership that helps in stability in the Indo-Pacific.

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  • Micronesia: the remote Pacific Islands

    The Federated States of Micronesia is one of the latest places on Earth to experience an outbreak of Covid-19, after two and a half years of successfully protecting itself from the virus.

    Where is Micronesia?

    • FSM is located in the Western Pacific, in the Micronesia sub-region of Oceania.
    • It consists of four island states, Yap, Chuuk, Kosrae and Pohnpei (where the capital Palikir is located), all in the Caroline Islands.
    • Also known as the Carolines, it is a scattered archipelago of small islands that are divided between Micronesia and the Republic of Palau.
    • FSM is composed of 607 islands and islets with a total land area of 702 square km.

    Its geography

    • While this area is rather small, the islands stretch across an estimated 2,900 sq. km of sea, giving the nation the 14th largest Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the world.
    • EEZs grant countries special right over marine resources up to 370 km from their coasts.
    • The Federated States of Micronesia shares its sea borders with other small island nations and territories in the Micronesia region like Guam, the Republic of Marshall Islands, Palau, Kiribati, and the Mariana Islands.
    • Its larger neighbouring states — separated by large swathes of the Pacific Ocean — including the Philippines in the west, Hawaii in the east, Papua New Guinea and Australia to the south, and Japan to the north.

     

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