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  • Expanding the G7

    There has been a call for expansion of G7 by the U.S. President. Against this backdrop, this article examines the historical background in which the group emerged. But a lot has changed since. So, it would be appropriate for G7 to adjust to the new reality. But what would be the focus of a new mechanism? What are the areas in which India would be interested? All such questions are answered in this article.

    Call for expansion of G7 and China’s objection

    • Recently, the U.S. President proposed the expansion of G7 to G10 or G11,  with the inclusion of India, South Korea, Australia and possibly Russia.
    • Elaborating this logic, the White House Director of Strategic Communications said the U.S. President wanted to include other countries, including the Five Eyes countries.
    • Five Eye is an intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.
    • The U.S. also stressed said the expanded group should talk about the future of China.
    • A Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs official immediately reacted, labelling it as “seeking a clique targeting China”.

    Should India care about China’s objection if invited to join?

    • China’s objection to an expanded G7 is no reason for India to stay away from it, if invited to join.
    • India has attended several G7 summits earlier too, as a special invitee for its outreach sessions.
    • India’s Prime Minister was guest invited to Biarritz, France to the G7 summit last year, along with other heads of government.

    The historical background of G7

    • The G7 emerged as a restricted club of the rich democracies in the early 1970s.
    • The quadrupling of oil prices just after the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, when  OPEC imposed an embargo against Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, and the United States, shocked their economies.
    • Although the French were spared the embargo, the chill winds of the OPEC action reverberated around the world.
    • So, French President invited the Finance Ministers of five of the most developed members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the United States, Germany, Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom, for an informal discussion on global issues.
    • This transformed into a G7 Summit of the heads of government from the following year with the inclusion of Canada in 1976.
    • And the European Commission/Community (later Union) joined as a non-enumerated member, a year later.
    • On the initiative of U.S. President Bill Clinton and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, the G7 became the G8, with the Russian Federation joining the club in 1998.
    • This ended with Russia’s expulsion following the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

    Declining share G7 and rising of E7 in world GDP

    • When constituted, the G7 countries accounted for close to two-thirds of global GDP.
    • According to the 2017 report of the accountancy firm, PwC, “The World in 2050”, they now account for less than a third of global GDP on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis.
    • And less than half on market exchange rates (MER) basis.
    • The seven largest emerging economies (E7, or “Emerging 7”), comprising Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey, account for over a third of global GDP on purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.
    • And over a quarter on MER basis.

    Predictions for India

    • India’s economy is already the third largest in the world in PPP terms, even if way behind that of the U.S. and China.
    • By 2050, the PwC Report predicts, six of the seven of the world’s best performing economies will be China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia.
    • Two other E7 countries, Mexico and Turkey, also improve their position.
    • It projects that India’s GDP will increase to $17 trillion in 2030 and $42 trillion in 2050 in PPP terms, in second place after China, just ahead of the United States.
    • This is predicated on India overcoming the challenge of COVID-19, sustaining its reform process and ensuring adequate investments in infrastructure, institutions, governance, education and health.

    Limitations of G7

    • The success or otherwise of multilateral institutions are judged by the standard of whether or not they have successfully addressed the core global or regional challenges of the time.
    • The G7 failed to head off the economic downturn of 2007-08.
    • This failure led to the rise of the G20.
    • In the short span of its existence, the G20 has provided a degree of confidence, by promoting open markets, and stimulus, preventing a collapse of the global financial system.
    • The G7 also failed to address the contemporary issues, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, the challenge of the Daesh, and the crisis of state collapse in West Asia.
    • It had announced its members would phase out all fossil fuels and subsidies, but has not so far announced any plan of action to do so.
    • And their coal fired plants emit “twice more CO2 than those of the entire African continent”.

    Turmoil in West Asia and failure of Europe to act

    • Three of the G7 countries, France, Germany, and the U.K., were among the top 10 countries contributing volunteers to the ISIS.
    • West Asia is in a greater state of turmoil than at any point of time since the fall of the Ottoman Empire.
    • This turmoil has led to a migrants crisis.
    • Migrant crisis persuaded many countries in Europe to renege on their western liberal values, making the Mediterranean Sea a death trap for people fleeing against fear of persecution and threat to their lives.

    So, to deal with the unprecedented challenge, we need new institution

    • The global economy has stalled and COVID-19 will inevitably create widespread distress.
    • Nations need dexterity and resilience to cope with the current flux, as also a revival of multilateralism, for they have been seeking national solutions for problems that are unresolvable internally.
    • Existing international institutions have proven themselves unequal to these tasks.
    • A new mechanism might help in attenuating them.
    • It would be ideal to include in it the seven future leading economies, plus Germany, Japan, the U.K., France, Mexico, Turkey, South Korea, and Australia.
    •  The 2005 ad hoc experiment by Prime Minister Tony Blair in bringing together the G7 and the BRICS countries was a one-off.

    What should be the focus of this new institution?

    • A new international mechanism will have value only if it focuses on key global issues.
    • A related aspect is how to push for observing international law and preventing the retreat from liberal values on which public goods are predicated.
    • Global public health and the revival of growth and trade in a sustainable way -that also reduces the inequalities among and within nations- would pose a huge challenge.

    What should be India’s priority in new institution?

    • India would be vitally interested in three: 1) international trade, 2) climate change, 3) the COVID-19 crisis.
    • Second order priorities for India would be cross-cutting issues such as counter-terrorism and counter-proliferation.
    • An immediate concern is to ensure effective implementation of the 1975 Biological Weapons Convention .
    • And the prevention of any possible cheating by its state parties by the possible creation of new microorganisms or viruses by using recombinant technologies.
    • On regional issues, establishing a modus vivendi with Iran would be important to ensure that it does not acquire nuclear weapons and is able to contribute to peace and stability in Afghanistan, the Gulf and West Asia.
    • The end state in Afghanistan would also be of interest to India.
    • And also the reduction of tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea.

    Consider the question “There has been a clamour for expanding G7 and India is being considered as one of the prospective candidates in the expanded group. In light of this examine the challenges and opportunities for India if it gets entry into the expanded group.”

    Conclusion

    The decaying influence in geopolitics and declining share in the world GDP calls for the formation of the new institution. IF and when that institution comes into being India should try to address its immediate concern with the help of new mechanism based on values.

  • 11th June 2020 | Prelims Daily with Previous Year Questions

    [WpProQuiz 458]

  • Strategic importance of Daulat Beg Oldie, Ladakh

    In the reporting on the LAC stand-off, the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) road has often appeared in news.

    Practice questions for mains:

    Q. Discuss how India’s all-weather border infrastructure has created new festering points for the Sino-Indian border skirmished.

    Daulat Beg Oldie

    • DBO is the northernmost corner of Indian Territory in Ladakh, in the area better known in Army parlance as Sub-Sector North.
    • DBO has the world’s highest airstrip, originally built during the 1962 war but abandoned until 2008 when the Indian Air Force (IAF) revived it as one of its many Advanced Landing Grounds (ALGs) along the LAC.

    The DSDBO Road

    • DSDBO is an all-weather 255-km long road 255-km long built by India over nearly 20 years.
    • Running almost parallel to the LAC, the DSDBO road, meandering through elevations ranging between 13,000 ft and 16,000 ft, took India’s Border Roads Organisation (BRO) almost two decades to construct.
    • Its strategic importance is that it connects Leh to DBO, virtually at the base of the Karakoram Pass that separates China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region from Ladakh.

    A trigger for PLA incursions

    • Of the possible triggers cited for the PLA targeting of Indian Territory along the LAC in eastern Ladakh, the construction of DSDBO all-weather road is possibly the most consequential.
    • The Chinese build-up along the Galwan River valley region overlooks and hence poses a direct threat to the DSDBO road.

    Significance of DSDBO Road

    • The DSDBO highway provides the Indian military access to the section of the Tibet-Xinjaing highway that passes through Aksai Chin.
    • The road runs almost parallel to the LAC at Aksai Chin, the eastern ear of erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir state that China occupied in the 1950s, leading to the 1962 war in which India came off worse.
    • The DSDBO’s emergence seemingly panicked China, evidenced by the 2013 intrusion by the PLA into the nearby Depsang Plains, lasting nearly three weeks.
    • DBO itself is less than 10 km west of the LAC at Aksai Chin. A military outpost was created in DBO in reaction to China’s occupation of Aksai Chin.
    • It is at present manned by a combination of the Army’s Ladakh Scouts and the paramilitary Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP).

    Other strategic considerations

    • To the west of DBO is the region where China abuts Pakistan in the Gilgit-Baltistan area, once a part of the erstwhile Kashmir principality.
    • This is also the critical region where China is currently constructing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), to which India has objected.
    • As well, this is the region where Pakistan ceded over 5,180 sq km of PoK to China in 1963 under a Sino-Pakistan Boundary Agreement, contested by India.

    Also read:

    https://www.civilsdaily.com/burning-issue-india-china-skirmish-in-ladakh/

     

  • GM seeds: the debate, and a sowing agitation

    In the current Kharif season, farmers would undertake mass sowing of GM seeds for maize, soybean, mustard brinjal and herbicide-tolerant (Ht) cotton, although these are not approved. Farmers had carried out a similar movement last year, too.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. Indian agriculture is in a way, a victim of its own past success – especially the green revolution. Critically comment.

    Genetically Modified (GM) seeds

    • Conventional plant breeding involves crossing species of the same genus to provide the offspring with the desired traits of both parents.
    • Genetic engineering aims to transcend the genus barrier by introducing an alien gene in the seeds to get the desired effects.
    • The alien gene could be from a plant, an animal or even a soil bacterium.

    What is the legal position of GM crops in India?

    • In India, the Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC) is the apex body that allows for the commercial release of GM crops.
    • In 2002, the GEAC had allowed the commercial release of Bt cotton.
    • More than 95 per cent of the country’s cotton area has since then come under Bt cotton.
    • Use of the unapproved GM variant can attract a jail term of 5 years and a fine of Rs 1 lakh under the Environmental Protection Act,1989.

    GM crops in India

    • Bt cotton, the only GM crop that is allowed in India, has two alien genes from the soil bacterium Bacillus Thuringiensis (Bt) that allows the crop to develop a protein toxic to the common pest pink bollworm.
    • Ht Bt, on the other, cotton is derived with the insertion of an additional gene, from another soil bacterium, which allows the plant to resist the common herbicide glyphosate.
    • In Bt brinjal, a gene allows the plant to resist attacks of fruit and shoot borer.

    Why are farmers rooting for GM crops?

    • In the case of cotton, farmers cite the high cost of weeding, which goes down considerably if they grow Ht Bt cotton and use glyphosate against weeds.
    • Brinjal growers in Haryana have rooted for Bt brinjal as it reduces the cost of production by cutting down on the use of pesticides.
    • Industry estimates say that of the 4-4.5 crore packets (each weighing 400 gm) of cotton sold in the country, 50 lakh are of the unapproved Ht Bt cotton.
    • Haryana has reported farmers growing Bt brinjal in pockets which had caused a major agitation there.

    Why furore over GM crops?

    • Environmentalists argue that the long-lasting effect of GM crops is yet to be studied and thus they should not be released commercially.
    • The genetic modification brings about changes that can be harmful to humans in the long run.

  • LAC row: China reaches accord with India

    China said that it had “reached an agreement” with India on the ongoing tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a day after India announced troops from both sides had begun a “partial disengagement” from some of the stand-off points.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. “Early settlement of the boundary question serves the fundamental interests of both countries”. Discuss in light of the ongoing border skirmishes between India and China.

    Read the complete story here:

    [Burning Issue] India-China Skirmish in Ladakh

    Troops moving back

    • Partial deinduction has happened from some points in Galwan and Hot Springs areas.
    • Chinese side removed some of the tents and some troops and vehicles have been moved back, and the Indian side to has reciprocated.
    • At some points in the Galwan Valley, Chinese troops have moved back 2-3 km. However, there is no change in the ground situation at Pangong Tso.

    De-escalation begins

    • India and China held Major general-level talks to discuss further de-escalation at several standoff points in Eastern Ladakh including Patrolling Point (PP) 14, following a broad accord reached on Saturday in talks held at the Corps Commander-level.
    • As per the agreement, a series of ground-level talks would be held over the next 10 days, with four other points of conflict identified at PP15, PP17, Chushul and the north bank of Pangong Lake.
    • The Chinese Foreign Ministry said both sides had agreed to handle the situation “properly” and “in line with the agreement” to ease the situation.
    • However, it did not provide specific details on some of the stand-off points, such as Pangong Lake, where Chinese troops are still present on India’s side of the LAC.

    No final solution yet

    • At present, the two sides are taking actions in line with the agreement to ameliorate the border situation.
    • Government officials said a partial disengagement had happened at some points in the Galwan area and at Hot Springs, but there was no change at Pangong Lake.
    • Chinese state-run media has revealed that the ongoing dispute will not escalate into a conflict.
    • But it added due to the complexity of the situation, the military stand-off could continue for a little longer.

    Way forward

    • The military-level talks showed that both sides do not want to escalate tensions further.
    • It showed that China and India remain determined to peacefully resolve border issues.
    • However, the ongoing stand-off is not likely to end immediately, as concrete issues must still be resolved.

  • Vamsadhara River Water Dispute

    Andhra Pradesh  and Odisha CM recently held talks to iron out all differences with regard to the sharing of Vamsadhara River waters.

    Note all major rivers over which inter-state disputes exist say Narmada, Mahadayi, Cauvery, Krishna, etc. Observe their flow and the area swept.

    Also, refer your atlas to check the complicated border sharings between Chhatisgarh, AP/Telangana and Odisha.

    Vamsadhara River

    • River Vamsadhara is an important east-flowing river between Rushikulya and Godavari, in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.
    • The river originates in the border of Thuamul Rampur in the Kalahandi district and Kalyansinghpur in Rayagada district of Odisha.
    • It runs for a distance of about 254 kilometres, where it joins the Bay of Bengal at Kalingapatnam, Andhra Pradesh.
    • The total catchment area of the river basin is about 10,830 square kilometres.

    The dispute

    • Andhra Pradesh wants to build the Neradi bridge across the river which will be possible only after Odisha’s consent.
    • Odisha argues that the flood flow canal would result in drying up the existing river bed and consequent shifting of the river affecting the groundwater table.
    • Odisha also raised the issue of scientific assessment of available water in Vamsadhara at Katragada and Gotta Barrage, Andhra Pradesh and the basis for sharing the available water.

    Back2Basics: Interstate River Water Disputes

    • River waters use/harnessing is included in states jurisdiction. However, article 262 of the Constitution provides for the adjudication of inter-state water disputes.
    • Under this, Parliament may by law provide for the adjudication of any dispute or complaint with respect to the use, distribution and control of waters of any inter-state river and river valley.
    • The President of India may also establish an interstate council as per Article 263 to inquire and recommend on the dispute that has arisen between the states
    • The Parliament has enacted the two laws, the River Boards Act (1956) and the Inter-State Water Disputes Act (1956).
    • Under this, Parliament may by law provide for the adjudication of any dispute or complaint with respect to the use, distribution and control of waters of any inter-state river and river valley.
    • The Inter-State Water Disputes Act empowers the Central government to set up an ad hoc tribunal for the adjudication of a dispute between two or more states in relation to the waters of an inter-state river or river valley.
    • The award of the tribunal is final and binding on the parties to the dispute.
    • Neither the Supreme Court nor any other court is to have jurisdiction in respect of any water dispute which may be referred to such a tribunal under this Act.

  • Challenger Deep: the deepest spot in the ocean

    On June 7, astronaut and oceanographer Kathy Sullivan, who was the first American woman to walk in space in 1984, became the first woman and the fifth person in history to descend to the deepest known spot in the world’s oceans, called the Challenger Deep in the Mariana Trench.

    The ocean relief can be divided into various parts such as Continental Shelf, Continental Slope, Continental Rise or Foot, Deep Ocean basins, Abyssal plains & Abyssal Hills, Oceanic Trenches, Seamounts and Guyots.

    Revise these ocean bottom relief  features from your basic references.

    Also revise India’s Deep Ocean Mission.

    What is Challenger Deep?

    • The Challenger Deep is the deepest known point in the Earth’s seabed hydrosphere (the oceans), with a depth of 10,902 to 10,929 m.
    • The deepest part is called the Challenger Deep, which is located below the surface of the western Pacific Ocean.
    • The first dive at Challenger Deep was made in 1960 by Lieutenant Don Walsh and Swiss scientist Jacques Piccard on a submersible called ‘Trieste’.
    • The British Ship HMS Challenger discovered Challenger Deep between 1872-1876.
    • In 2012, film director James Cameron reached the bottom of the Mariana trench after a descent that lasted 2 hours and 36 minutes.
    • Cameron reached a depth of about 10,908 metres on a dive in his submersible called the ‘Deepsea Challenger’ and became the first to complete a solo submarine dive to this spot.

    Why explore deep oceans?

    • Ocean exploration, however, is not randomly wandering in hopes of finding something new.
    • It is disciplined and organized and includes rigorous observations and documentation of biological, chemical, physical, geological, and archaeological aspects of the ocean.
    • Most of the existing knowledge of the oceans comes from shallower waters, while deeper waters remain relatively unexplored, even as humans are relying more on these areas for food, energy and other resources.
    • Further, finding out more about the deep ocean areas can potentially reveal new sources for medical drugs, food, energy resources and other products.
    • Significantly, information from the deep oceans can also help to predict earthquakes and tsunamis, and help us understand how we are affecting and getting affected by the Earth’s environment.

    What does it take to reach the deep ocean?

    • Vehicles called Human Occupied Vehicles (HOVs) may be used that carry scientists to the deep sea.
    • Alternatively, there are unmanned Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) that are linked to ships using cables and can be steered by scientists remotely.
    • Even so, it is difficult for most private citizens to travel more than 100 feet below the surface of the ocean.
    • Further, technical divers can go as deep as 500 feet or more, but with an array of tanks filled with different gas blends.

    Why is it so difficult to explore deep oceans?

    • Most recreational divers can’t explore more than about 120 feet down due to the amount of air needed to keep lungs pressurized at depth.
    • Such depths could lead to nitrogen narcosis, the intoxication by nitrogen that starts to set in around that depth (most of our atmosphere is nitrogen, not oxygen).
    • Waters at such depths of several kilometres exert tremendous pressure which human bodies cannot sustain.

  • Species in news: Asiatic Lion

    Asiatic lions have now significantly risen in number at an estimated population of 674 in the Gir forest region of Gujarat. Unlike in previous years, this count was estimated not from a Census, but from a population “observation” exercise called Poonam Avlokan.

    Try this question from CSP 2017:

    Q. The term ‘M-STrIPES’ is sometimes seen in the news in the context of

    (a) Captive breeding of Wild Fauna

    (b) Maintenance of Tiger Reserves

    (c) Indigenous Satellite Navigation System

    (d) Security of National Highways

    Asiatic Lion

    • Indian Lion (Panthera Leo Persica) is listed as Endangered and exists as a single population in Gujarat.
    • It is one of five big cat species found in India and Gir National Park and Wildlife Sanctuary is the only habitat for Asiatic lions.
    • Historically, it inhabited much of Western Asia and the Middle East up to northern India.
    • On the IUCN Red List, it is listed under its former scientific name Panthera leo persica as Endangered because of its small population size and area of occupancy.
    • More than two dozen lions died last year in an outbreak of canine distemper virus (CDV) and Babesiosis.

    What is Poonam Avlokan?

    It includes two methods:

    • Block counting method — in which census enumerators remain stationed at water points in a given block and estimate abundance of lions in that block, based on the direct sighting of lions who need to drink water at least once in 24 hours during the summer.
    • Other teams keep moving in their respective territories and make their estimates based on inputs provided by lion trackers and on chance sightings.

    Back2Basics: Lion Census in India

    • The first Lion Census was conducted by the Nawab of Junagadh in 1936; since 1965, the Forest Department has been regularly conducting the Lion Census every five years.
    • The 6th, 8th and 11th Censuses were each delayed by a year, for various reasons.
    • This year it was postponed after the lockdown was announced.

  • Complexity of India-Nepal relations

    This article helps us understand Nepal’s perspective of the India-Nepal border dispute. Though the issue dates back to India’s independence, it came to dominate the political landscape in Nepal since 1990s. But there is no solution in sight. So, what makes the issue complex? Read to know…

    What the border dispute between two countries is about?

    • The inauguration of the “new road to Mansarovar” on May 8 by India’s defence minister has strained the relations between Nepal and India.
    • Nepal claims that a section of the road passes through the territory of Nepal and links with the Tibetan Autonomous Region of China through the Lipu Lekh pass in Nepal.
    • The 1816 Sugauli Treaty between Nepal and British India placed all the territories east of the Kali (Mahakali) river, including Limpiyadhura, Kalapani and Lipu Lekh at the northwestern front of Nepal, on its side.
    • The borders of Nepal, India and China intersect in this area.
    • Given the situation in 1961, Nepal and China fixed pillar number one at Tinker pass with the understanding that pillar number zero (the tri-junction of Nepal, India, and China) would be fixed later.
    • Lipu Lekh pass is 4 km northwest and Limpiyadhura 53 km west of Tinker pass.

    No progress on the solution of the issue

    • The dispute over the Kalapani area has spanned the last seven decades.
    • Both Nepal and India have recognised it as an outstanding border issue requiring an optimal resolution.
    • When in August 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Nepal in 17 years, Nepal’s Prime Minister Sushil Koirala raised this issue again.
    • The two prime ministers agreed to resolve the issue on a priority basis and directed their foreign secretaries “to work on the outstanding boundary issues including Kalapani and Susta”.
    •  There was virtually no progress on the ground.

    Nepal’s objection to India-China agreement

    •  In May 2015, Prime Minister Modi visited China, and the two countries agreed to “enhance border areas cooperation”.
    • The May 2015 agreement is a broad one compared to the 1954 India-China agreement “on trade and intercourse between Tibet Region of China and India”, which mentions Lipu Lekh pass as one of the six passes “through which traders and pilgrims of both countries may travel”.
    • Nepal protested against the inclusion of its territory, Lipu Lekh, in the joint statement without its consent and demanded that the two countries make necessary corrections to reflect the ground realities.
    • The protest was ignored.

    Growing nationalism and distrust let to the deterioration of relations

    • The tone of Nepal-India relations appears to be dominated by frustrations of the past and traditional attitudes more than the opportunities of the future.
    • The widening gap in understanding each other’s concerns has helped feed Nepali nationalism and create a dense cloud of distrust and suspicion between the two countries.
    • The gap widened after India chose to impose an economic blockade in response to Nepal’s sovereign decision to promulgate a democratic constitution.
    • The current ruling Communist Party of Nepal made people’s anger over the blockade its campaign plank during the 2017 general election.

    What makes the border issues complex and difficult to solve?

    • Complexity of the issue stems from the fact that the political leadership handles only a small part of this very important bilateral relationship.
    • India as a big neighbour is rarely seen grasping the psychological dimensions of the relationship.
    • Officials handling these multifaceted relations may momentarily influence the atmospherics but they rarely touch the core of these relations, let alone reorient or transform them in the rapidly changing context.
    • This is manifest in the deferring of substantive conversations on the outstanding boundary issue for decades.
    • The foreign secretary level mechanism has not met even once to discuss the border issue since its formation.
    • There are over three dozen bilateral mechanisms between Nepal and India to engage at various levels.
    • The meetings of these mechanisms are rarely regular.

    Consider the question “The India-Nepal border dispute looks minor, but allowing it to fester is likely to sow the seeds of immense competition and intense rivalry in the sensitive Himalayan frontier with far-reaching geopolitical implications. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    Geography, history, and economy make Nepal and India natural partners, sharing vital interest in each other’s freedom, integrity, dignity, security and progress. People-to-people relations are unique strengths of bilateral relations. India, for it’s part and in the spirit of its ‘neighbourhood first’ policy, must start a solution-oriented dialogue and find the solution to the dispute.

  • Will leaders act on the climate crisis as they did Covid-19?

    In the context of climate change, the rising concentration of carbon dioxide and rising global temperature are inextricably linked with each other. This article elaborates on two interlinked and rising curves-CO2 and temperature. The article is concluded on the positive note that leaders would act on climate change with same urgency as Covid.

    The upward journey of two curves

    • Two interrelated curves began their upward trend two centuries ago with the advent of the industrial age.
    • The first curve was the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide or, more generally, all greenhouse gases, GHGs.
    • And the second was the average global temperature curve.

    CO2 concentration at 407 ppm: But did we get here?

    • Actually, the CO2 curve began its upward march about 18,000 years ago when it was a little under 200 parts per million (ppm).
    • And earth was much colder back then.
    • By the time it reached 270 ppm about 11,500 years ago, the warmer conditions accompanying this curve made it possible for the emergence of agriculture.
    • Over the past million years, CO2 levels never exceeded 280-300 ppm.
    • They always went back to 200 ppm before rising again in a cyclical fashion.
    • They remained steady at close to 280 ppm for 10,000 years until, beginning in the mid-19th century.
    • They began to rise again as humans burnt coal and oil to fuel the industrial revolution, and burnt forests to expand agriculture and settlements.
    • From a mere 0.2 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions in 1850, annual emissions increased to 36 billion tonnes by 2018.
    • If all this CO2 had accumulated in the atmosphere, we can say that human life would have been altered beyond recognition.
    • Nature has been rather kind to us so far — about one-half of all CO2 emissions have been sanitised from the atmosphere, equally by growing vegetation on land and by absorption in the oceans.
    • Thus, the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere reached 407 ppm in 2018, a level last experienced by earth some three million years ago.

    Global temperature up by 1 degree Celcius

    •  From 1850 onwards, for over a century, the global temperature showed a slight warming trend.
    • But there was nothing suggestive of anything serious.
    • From 1975 onwards, the temperature graph has shown a distinct, upward trend.
    • By 2015, the globe had heated by a full degree Celsius relative to a hundred years previously.
    • Climate modellers unequivocally project that under the current trends of emissions the globe will heat up by 4˚C by the end of the century.
    • he 2003 European heat wave killed over 70,000 people.
    • The years 2015-19 have globally been the warmest years on record.
    • Leave aside the Amazon fire of 2019, the bush fires of 2019-20 in Australia were unprecedented in their scale and devastation.
    • March 2020 has been the second warmest March on record.

    But climate change is not just about temperature rise

    • Climate change involves not just a change in temperature but every other component of weather, including rainfall, humidity and wind speed.
    • Indirect effects follow, such as a rise in sea levels from melting glaciers.
    • Globally there have been several extreme weather events such as hurricanes, heat waves or droughts.
    • While no single event can be directly attributed to climate change, the collective trends are consistent with climate change predictions.

    Warning for India

    • The Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago put out a warning for India last year.
    • It says that if global CO2 emissions continue to gallop at the present rate, average summer temperatures would rise by 4˚C in most States.
    • Extremely hot days (days above 35˚C), which were only five days in 2010, would increase to 15 days by 2050 and to 42 days by 2100 on average across all districts.
    • A more moderate emissions scenario, as a result of countries largely fulfilling their commitments under the Paris Agreement, would keep average global temperature rise below 2˚C compared to pre-industrial levels.

    Let’s look into the financial dimension of tackling climate change

    • The most common excuse is that the world cannot afford to curb GHG emissions for fear of wrecking the economy.
    • An article in Nature in 2019 highlighted the financial dimensions of tackling the looming climate crisis.
    • Apparently, the wealthy nations are spending over $500 billion each year internally on projects aimed at reducing emissions.
    • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, however, estimates that a sustained annual investment of $2.4 trillion in more efficient energy systems is needed until 2035 in order to keep warming below the more ambitious 1.5˚C relative to pre-industrial levels.
    • To put this in perspective, that is about 2.5% of the global GDP.

    What happened to the $100 billion per year aid to poor countries?

    • Some of the wrangling over money relates to the amounts that the wealthy nations, agreed to pay other countries to cope with climate change.
    • Underlying idea was that these countries have caused most of the GHGs resulting in global warming,
    • At the UN Climate Conference in 2009, the richest nations had pledged to provide $100 billion in aid each year by 2020 to the poorer countries for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
    • In 2017, for which data are available, only $71 billion had been provided.
    • And most of the money was spent on mitigation and less than 20% towards climate adaptation.
    • Such numbers had been challenged prior to the 2015 Paris Summit by many countries, including India.
    • It was challenged because much of the so-called aid provided did not come out of dedicated climate funds but, rather, development funds or simply loans which had to be repaid.
    • It thus seems unlikely that the rich countries will deliver $100 billion in tangible climate finance during 2020.

    Time to act

    • COVID-19 has unwittingly given humanity a brief respite from the climate change curve.
    • Commentators are already talking about a paradigm shift in the structure and functioning of societies once the pandemic subsides.
    • This is also a make-or-break moment for the climate trajectory which has to be flattened within a few years if we are to avoid dangerous climate change.
    • Nature’s kindness is not expected to last beyond a 2˚C rise in temperature as the carbon sequestered into vegetation will be thrown back into the atmosphere.
    • Also remember that earth has already warmed by 1˚C and we really have only another 1˚C as a safety margin or 0.5˚C if we are concerned about island nations.

    Consider the mains question asked by the UPSC in 2017-‘Climate change’ is a global problem. How India will be affected by climate change? How Himalayan and coastal states of India will be affected by climate change?

    Conclusion

    There is no substitute to reducing GHG emissions. Technologists, economists and social scientists must plan for a sustainable planet based on the principles of equity and climate justice within and across nations. It is the responsibility of leaders to alter their mindset and act on the looming climate crisis with the same alacrity they have shown on COVID-19.

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