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Subject: Climate Change

1. Global Warming and Issues
2. All about Pollution

  • India must commit to net zero emissions

    Context

    The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November in Glasgow is shaping up to be the most important climate meeting since the Paris Agreement in 2015.

    What are net-zero emissions?

    Carbon neutrality refers to achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. This can be done by balancing emissions of carbon dioxide with its removal or by eliminating emissions from society.

    Increase in pace and scale of climate action

    • Over 50% of the global economy is already committed to net zero emissions by 2050.
    • Over 100 countries have already committed to net zero emissions by 2050, with more expected at COP26.
    • The pace and scale of climate action are only set to increase, with the recent IPCC report unequivocal on the need for urgent and stronger responses.
    • It is not only governments that are increasing climate action. The business world is too, not just to protect themselves against the risks of climate change but also to take advantage of the massive opportunities arising as the global economy shifts to net-zero emissions.

    Why India should commit to a net-zero target

    • National interest due to vulnerability: India itself has a national interest in ambitious global and national climate action.
    • It is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change and, therefore, should be among the more active against the threats.
    • Influence as a rising power: Second, as a rising power, India naturally seeks stronger influence globally.
    • Being an outlier on the global challenge facing our generation does not support this aim.
    • Drag on international diplomacy: India’s reluctance to commit to net-zero will become a significant drag on India’s international diplomacy.
    • This applies not just to key relationships like with the U.S., but also with much of the Group of 77 (G77) states, who are increasingly concerned to see climate action, and in multilateral groupings such as the United Nations and ASEAN-APEC.
    • Interconnected with the economy: There is no longer a trade-off between reducing emissions and economic growth.
    • For example, the U.K. has reduced emissions by over 40% and grown its economy by over 70% since 1990.
    • Solar energy costs have fallen 90% in recent years, providing the cheapest electricity in India ever seen.
    • Also, given the negative impacts, addressing climate change in India’s economic development is now central to success, not an added luxury to consider.
    • The transition of the global economy to net zero emissions is the biggest commercial opportunity in history.
    • In just the energy sector alone, an estimated $1.6 to $3.8 trillion of investment is required every year until 2050.

    India’s climate actions

    • India is set to significantly exceed its Paris Agreement commitment of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030.
    • Emphasis on renewable: India is impressing the world with its leading roll-out of renewable energy and target for 450GW by 2030, linked to its leadership on the International Solar Alliance and recent national hydrogen strategy.
    • Corporates: Indian corporates are also stepping up, with the Tata Group winning awards on sustainability, Mahindra committing to net-zero by 2040, and Reliance by 2035.
    • Notwithstanding reasonable arguments about historical responsibility, per capita emissions, and equity, India’s national interests in climate action are now engaged in ways that go significantly beyond waiting for donor support to drive ambition.

    The way forward: International cooperation

    • The world needs to work together for success in the form of stronger political engagement, policy support in areas of mutual challenge such as energy policy, carbon markets, and economic recovery.
    • Practical support and cooperation in areas like renewable energy and integrating it with the national grid, zero-emissions transport, decarbonising hard to abate sectors like steel, cement, and chemicals, and decarbonising agriculture offer significant scope to raise ambition.
    • As does working with India on innovative green financing for decarbonizing investment.

    Conclusion

    India’s tryst with destiny rests in its own remarkable hands, as it always has been. In a land where the earth is called mother, and Mahatma Gandhi, major religions, and the Constitution enshrine environmental care, commitment to net zero emissions by 2050 should almost be foretold.

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  • Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP)

    The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is drafting a Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP) in a bid to tackle climate challenges.

    What is the Mumbai Climate Action Plan?

    • Amid warnings of climate change leading to extreme weather events in the city, the civic body has started preparing the Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP).
    • It will look at climate resilience with mitigation and adaptation strategies by focusing on six areas —
    1. Sustainable waste management
    2. Urban greening and Biodiversity
    3. Urban flooding and Water Resource Management
    4. Building Energy Efficiency
    5. Air Quality and
    6. Sustainable Mobility
    • The plan is expected to be ready by November ahead of the United Nations Climate Change (COP26) conference at Glasgow, Scotland.

    Why does Mumbai need a climate action plan?

    Mumbai’s climate action plan will help set a vision and implement strategies to fight these climate challenges with mitigation and adaptation steps.

    • Flash floods: As per a study conducted by the World Resource Institute (WRI) India, the city will face two major climate challenges — the rise in temperature, and extreme rain events which will lead to flooding.
    • Temperature rise: The city has seen a constant rise in temperature after 2007, and a substantial increase in intense rainfall and storm events in the last five years.
    • Sea level rise: A recent report from the IPCC has warned that at least 12 Indian coastal cities including Mumbai will face a sea rise of 0.1 metres to 0.3 metres in the next three decades due to climate change.

    What is the greenhouse gas emission of the city?

    • The data show that Mumbai’s greenhouse gas emission was 34.3 million tonnes in 2019, and of which 24.23 million tonnes or 71 per cent came from the energy sector which is mainly based on coal.
    • At least 24 per cent or 82,21,902 tonnes is from transport, and the remaining 5 per cent or 18,53,741 tonnes from solid waste management.
    • The maximum contribution from the energy sector was mainly due to domestic and commercial usage of electricity.
    • As per the data, 95 percent of Mumbai’s electricity is coal-based and needs to be shifted to renewable energy to bring down emissions.

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  • Nationally Determined Contributions

    Context

    Despite accomplishments, global pressures are intensifying on India to commit more towards the Conference of the Parties (COP26), scheduled for November 2021 in Glasgow.

    India’s accomplishments

    • At the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (December 2020), India was the only G20 nation compliant with the agreement.
    • India has been ranked within the top 10 for two years consecutively in the Climate Change Performance Index.
    • The Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All (UJALA) scheme is the world’s largest zero-subsidy LED bulb programme for domestic consumers.
    •  India provided leadership for setting up the International Solar Alliance, a coalition of solar-resource-rich countries, and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.

    Why it is unfair to pressure India on climate action

    We can attempt to answer the question by comparing the achievements of other countries vis-à-vis India’s performance.

    • Historical perspective: World Bank data for CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) over two decades since the Kyoto protocol informs that at the current rate, both China and the U.S. could emit five times more than India in 2030.
    • The U.K.’s emission levels could be more than 1.5 times that of India.
    • Brazil, with its dense forests, may end up at similar levels.
    • Latest efforts: Last year, China, the world’s largest GHG emitter, joined the ‘race to zero’ and targets carbon neutrality by 2060.
    • Interestingly, it hopes to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 for bending the emissions curve.
    • Recently, the U.S. rejoined the Paris Agreement and committed to reducing emissions by 50%-52% in 2030 and reaching net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050.
    • The French government, during the novel coronavirus pandemic, set green conditions for bailing out its aviation industry.
    • However, the analysts say that no baseline for reducing emissions from domestic flights was fixed.
    • In Australia, complicated domestic politics prevented them from addressing the problem, despite the country being vulnerable, and stretches of the famous Great Barrier Reef having died in recent years.

    India’s performance

    • Exceeding the NDC commitment: India is on track (as reports/documents show) to meet and exceed the NDC commitment to achieve 40% electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based sources by 2030.
    • Reduction in emission intensity of GDP: Against the voluntary declaration for reducing the emission intensity of GDP by 20%-25% by 2020, India has reduced it by 24% between 2005-2016.
    • More importantly, we achieved these targets with around 2% out of the U.S.$100 billion committed to developing nations in Copenhagen (2009), realised by 2015.
    • Renewable energy expansion: India is implementing one of the most extensive renewable energy expansion programmes to achieve 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030.
    • Investment in green measures: As part of the fiscal stimulus after the pandemic, the Government announced several green measures, including:
    • a $26.5-billion investment in biogas and cleaner fuels,
    • $3.5 billion in incentives for producing efficient solar photovoltaic (PV)
    • and advanced chemistry cell battery, and $780 million towards an afforestation programme.
    •  India’s contribution to global emissions is well below its equitable share of the worldwide carbon budget by any equity criterion.

    Conclusion

    To sum up, India has indeed walked the talk. Other countries must deliver on their promises early and demonstrate tangible results ahead of COP26.

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  • Melting of the Greenland’s Snow Cover

    Recently the summit of Greenland received rain and not snow. This has sparked fear as scientists are pointing to it as evidence that Greenland is warming rapidly.

    About Greenland

    • Greenland is the world’s largest island located between the Arctic and Atlantic oceans, east of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
    • It is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.
    • Though physiographically a part of the continent of North America, Greenland has been politically and culturally associated with Europe (specifically Norway and Denmark, the colonial powers).
    • The majority of its residents are Inuit, whose ancestors migrated from Alaska through Northern Canada, gradually settling across the island by the 13th century.
    • It has three-quarters of its surface covered with a permanent ice sheet, which is increasingly coming under threat because of climate change.

    Rain at Greenland: The rarest phenomenon

    • At the highest point on Greenland’s ice sheet, the US maintains a Summit Station, a research facility that observes changes occurring over the island as well as in Arctic weather.
    • Researchers observed rain at the normally frigid summit, with the precipitation extending up to Greenland’s southeast coast.
    • The rain, coupled with warm conditions, caused a major melting event at the summit.
    • This led to rapid ice melting running off into the ocean in volumes, thus accelerating global sea-level rise.

    A cause of worry

    • Greenland, which is two-thirds the size of India, already witnessed one of its most severe melting events.
    • It has lost 8.5 billion tons of surface mass in one day– the third such extreme event in the past decade.
    • The UN’s “code red” climate report released last week concluded that the burning of fossil fuels led to Greenland melting in the last 20 years.
    • The rapid melting is also threatening polar bears, which now have to make their way hundreds of kilometers towards Greenland’s interior from the coasts, where they usually find enough food.

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  • India ratifies Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol

    The Union Cabinet has given its approval for ratification of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer for phase down of Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) by India.

    What is Montreal Protocol?

    • The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is an international agreement made in 1987.
    • It was designed to stop the production and import of ozone-depleting substances and reduce their concentration in the atmosphere to help protect the earth’s ozone layer.
    • It sits under the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer.

    Objectives

    • The convention was adopted in 1985 and has highlighted the adverse effect of human activity on ozone levels in the stratosphere and the discovery of the ‘ozone hole’.
    • Its objectives are to promote cooperation on the adverse effects of human activities on the ozone layer.
    • It has since undergone nine revisions, in 1990 (London), 1991 (Nairobi), 1992 (Copenhagen), 1993 (Bangkok), 1995 (Vienna), 1997 (Montreal), 1998 (Australia), 1999 (Beijing) and 2016 (Kigali).

    India and the Protocol

    • India became a Party to the Protocol on 19 June 1992 and since then has ratified the amendments.

    What is the Kigali Amendment?

    • It is an international agreement to gradually reduce the consumption and production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).
    • It is a legally binding agreement designed to create rights and obligations in international law.
    • While HFCs do not deplete the stratospheric ozone layer, they have high global warming potential ranging from 12 to 14,000, which has an adverse impact on climate.

    What are the Ozone Depleting Substances?

    Ozone-depleting substances are chemicals that destroy the earth’s protective ozone layer. They include:

    • chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
    • halons
    • carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)
    • methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3)
    • hydro Bromo fluorocarbons (HBFCs)
    • hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
    • methyl bromide (CH3Br)
    • bromochloromethane (CH2BrCl)

    Where are they used?

    The main uses of ozone-depleting substances include:

    • CFCs and HCFCs in refrigerators and air conditioners,
    • HCFCs and halons in fire extinguishers,
    • CFCs and HCFCs in foam,
    • CFCs and HCFCs as aerosol propellants, and
    • Methyl bromide for fumigation of soil, structures and goods to be imported or exported.

    Now answer this PYQ:

    Q.Consider the following statements:

    Chlorofluorocarbons, known as ozone-depleting substances are used:

    1. In the production of plastic foams
    2. In the production of tubeless tyres
    3. In cleaning certain electronic components
    4. As pressurizing agents in aerosol cans

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (CSP 2012)

    (a) 1, 2 and 3 only

    (b) 4 only

    (c) 1, 3 and 4 only

    (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”1wrtcabaix” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

    Why phase them out?

    Implementation strategy and targets:

    • India will complete its phase-down of HFCs in 4 steps from 2032 onwards with a cumulative reduction of 10% in 2032, 20% in 2037, 30% in 2042, and 80% in 2047.

    Major Impact

    • HFCs phasedown is expected to prevent the emission of up to 105 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent of GHGs, helping to avoid up to 0.5 degrees Celsius of global temperature rise by 2100, while continuing to protect the ozone layer.
    • It will achieve energy efficiency gains^ and carbon dioxide emissions reduction – a “climate co-benefit,”
    • HFCs phrase-down implementation will involve synergies to maximize the economic arid social co-benefits, besides environmental gains.
    • There would be scope for domestic manufacturing of equipment as well as alternative non-HFC and low-global warming potential chemicals to enable the industry to transition to the low global warming potential alternatives as per the agreed HFC phase-down schedule.
    • In addition, there would be opportunities to promote domestic innovation for new generation alternative refrigerants and related technologies.

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  • The message from the IPCC report

    Context

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). It is the first of four that the Panel will issue over the next one and a half years.

    What does the report say?

    • Global surface temperature is now higher by 1.07oC since the pre-industrial era.
    • The impact of climate change on the atmosphere, oceans and land is unmistakably of human origin and this impact is picking up pace.
    • Carbon dioxide is the dominant source of warming.
    • Aerosols contribute to reducing the impact of warming by other greenhouse gases, by almost a third.
    • Methane reduction, while needed overall, is particularly significant only as part of the endgame as the drastic reduction of aerosols actually leads to an increase in warming.
    • The report expectedly projects an increase in climate extremes due to global warming, with heatwaves, extreme rainfall events and occurrence of extreme sea levels all expected to intensify and be more frequent.
    • A major finding of the report is that air pollution reduction and steep climate change mitigation are not complementary goals but require independent efforts over the short and medium-term
    • With the inclusion of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology’s Earth System Model among the climate models used in AR6, India too has joined the climate modelling fraternity.

    About the net-zero emission targets

    •  The report’s clear message is that reaching net zero was not the determining factor for the world to limit itself to a 1.5oC , or 2oC, or indeed any specific temperature increase.
    • The report is clear that it is the cumulative emissions in reaching net zero that determine the temperature rise.
    • India’s Ministry for Environment, Forest and Climate Change was quick to note this point about net zero in a statement, adding that “historical cumulative emissions are the cause of the climate crisis that the world faces today”
    • The limitations of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5oC are so stringent — a mere 500 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide for an even chance of keeping to the limit — that they cannot be met by promises of net-zero 30 years from now.
    • Equally, the disconcerting finding is that the world is set to cross the 1.5oC limit within 10-15 years.

    Implications for India

    •  India has contributed less than 5% of global cumulative emissions to date, with per capita annual emissions a third of the global average.
    • India is also the only nation among the G20 with commitments under the Paris Agreement that are even 2oC warming-compatible.
    • India needs its development space urgently to cope with the future, one where global temperature increase may be closer to 2oC.
    • Even if India completely stops its emission which is 3 billion tonnes in carbon dioxide equivalent terms, for the next 30 years, with others’ emissions remaining the same, will buy the world less than two years of additional time for meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.

    Way forward

    • Equity: Focusing on definite cumulative emission targets keeping equity and historical responsibility in view,
    • Immediate reduction by developed countries: Immediate emission reductions by the developed countries with phase-out dates for all fossil fuels.
    • Investment: Massive investment in new technologies and their deployment,
    • Climate finance: a serious push to the mobilisation of adequate climate finance is the need of the hour.

    Conclusion

    This is the message that the IPCC report has sent to this year’s climate summit and the world. The message is a dire warning, all the stakeholders should heed the warning.

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  • Net-zero emission targets do little to retard carbon grab

    Context

    Earlier this week the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported on climate science, warning against the folly of a business-as-usual development model.

    What does science say about future pathways

    • Globally, average surface temperatures have already risen by 1.09°C between 1850-1900 and 2010-2019.
    • What happens next depends on our development and technological choices.
    • High fossil fuel use path: As per the the IPCC document, if we followed high fossil fuel development (doubling emissions by 2050), temperatures would rise by 4.4°C (range of 3.3-5.7°C) by 2100.
    • Sustainable pathways: If a more sustainable pathway were pursued average global temperature rise would be 1.4°C (range of 1.0-1.8°C).
    • Regardless, it is likely that the average rise in temperatures will breach the 1.5°C barrier within the next two decades.
    • If emissions are not mitigated rapidly, we are staring at rising climate risks and catastrophic impacts.
    • Human influence is very likely the main reason behind glacial retreat since the 1990s.
    • Since observations began, glaciers have lost the maximum mass during 2010-19.
    • Sea level rise: Even with warming restricted to 1.5°C, we are still on course for more than 2 metres of sea-level rise beyond this century.

    India’s vulnerability to climate change

    • If warming exceeds 4°C, India could see about 40% increase in precipitation annually, leading to extreme rainfall events.
    • Three-quarters of India’s districts are now hotspots of extreme weather events.
    • Since 1990, more than 300 such events have resulted in damages exceeding INR 5.6 lakh crore.

    Changes needed to stabilise temperature rise

    • The IPCC says that in order to stabilise rise in temperatures, two things have to happen:
    • 1) Anthropogenic emissions must become net-zero.
    • 2) In the interim cumulative emissions cannot exceed a global carbon budget.
    • Carbon Budget: To stay within the 1.5°C limit, starting in 2020 the remaining global carbon budget is 300-500 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) (with a likelihood of 50%-83%).

    Unjust climate politics and net-zero emission targets

    • Of late, several large emitters have promised net-zero emission targets. 
    • CEEW analysts calculate that despite their self-laudatory targets, China would consume 87% of the global carbon space (if it reached net-zero in 2060) and the US would eat up 26% (if it reached net-zero in 2050).
    • Mere announcements of net-zero targets do little to retard the “carbon grab” of the largest emitters.
    •  Rich countries, as a whole, emitted ~25 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) more than their estimated emission allowance during 2008-20, thanks to non-participation in pre-2020 climate agreements and misuse of accounting loopholes. 
    • Climate justice demands that developed countries now take steps to free up carbon space for others.

    Way forward for India

    • India must adopt a more climate-friendly development pathway for its own sake.
    • Its per capita incomes, energy consumption and carbon footprint are well below the global average but it must deliver high rates of economic growth within a shrinking carbon budget.
    • Shift discourse to economy: The discourse must shift from energy to the economy.
    • There are very few sunrise sectors that are not low-carbon.
    • India must tap new technology frontiers (green hydrogen), new business models (distributed and digitalised services, for distributed energy, EV charging, cold chains), new construction materials (low-carbon cement, recycled plastic), new opportunities in the circular economy of minerals, municipal waste and agricultural residue, and new practices for sustainable agriculture and food systems.
    • Policy and regulatory support: Many of above technologies and business models are proven but need policy and regulatory support.

    Conclusion

    The climate crisis is a strategic threat to our development prospects. It deserves sober, continuing analysis, deliberation and action. The headlines look bad; reality will get worse.

  • Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

    According to the IPCC’s Report (AR6), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is losing its stability.

    What is AMOC?

    • The AMOC is a large system of ocean currents.
    • It is the Atlantic branch of the ocean conveyor belt or Thermohaline circulation (THC), and distributes heat and nutrients throughout the world’s ocean basins.
    • AMOC carries warm surface waters from the tropics towards the Northern Hemisphere, where it cools and sinks.
    • It then returns to the tropics and then to the South Atlantic as a bottom current. From there it is distributed to all ocean basins via the Antarctic circumpolar current.
    • Gulf Stream, a part of the AMOC, is a warm current responsible for mild climate at the Eastern coast of North America as well as Europe.

    What happens if AMOC collapses?

    • Colder Europe: Without a proper AMOC and Gulf Stream, Europe will be very cold.
    • Rainfall decline: Modelling studies have shown that an AMOC shutdown would cool the northern hemisphere and decrease rainfall over Europe.
    • El-Nino trigger: It can also have an effect on the El Nino.
    • Cooling of Atlantic: AMOC collapse could bring about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas.
    • Weaker thermohaline: Freshwater from melting Greenland ice sheets and the Arctic region can make circulation weaker as it is not as dense as salt water and doesn’t sink to the bottom.

    Has the AMOC weakened before?

    • AMOC and THC strength has always been fluctuating, mainly if you look at the late Pleistocene time period (last 1 million years).
    • The extreme glacial stages have seen weaker circulation and slowdown in AMOC, while the glacial terminations have shown a stronger AMOC and circulation.
    • AMOC has been relatively stable until the late 19th century.
    • With the end of the little ice age in about 1850, the ocean currents began to decline, with a second, more drastic decline following since the mid-20th century.

    Why is the AMOC slowing down?

    • Climate models have long predicted that global warming can cause a weakening of the major ocean systems of the world.
    • Last month researchers noted that a part of the Arctic’s ice called “Last Ice Area” has also melted.
    • The freshwater from the melting ice reduces the salinity and density of the water. Now, the water is unable to sink as it used to and weakens the AMOC flow.

    Influence of Indian Ocean

    • Another study suggested that the Indian Ocean may also be helping the slowing down of AMOC.
    • As the Indian Ocean warms faster and faster, it generates additional precipitation.
    • With so much precipitation in the Indian Ocean, there will be less precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean, leading to higher salinity in the waters of the tropical portion of the Atlantic.
    • This saltier water in the Atlantic, as it comes north via AMOC, will get cold much quicker than usual and sink faster.
    • This acts as a jump start for AMOC, intensifying the circulation.

    Now try this:

    Q.With reference to Ocean Mean Temperature (OMT), which of the following statements is/are correct? (CSP 2020)

    1. OMT is measured up to a depth of 26ºC isotherm which is 129 meters in the south-western Indian Ocean during January-March.
    2. OMT collected during January-March can be used in assessing whether the amount of rainfall in monsoon will be less or more than a certain long-term mean.

    Select the correct answer using the code given below:

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) Both 1 and 2

    (d) Neither 1 nor 2

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”t9bjw2xexz” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here:[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

    Back2Basics:  Ocean Currents

  • IPCC’s Climate Assessment Report

    The Geneva-based Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report, the periodic status check that has now become the most widely accepted scientific view of the state of the Earth’s climate.

    What is IPCC?

    • The IPCC, an intergovernmental body was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
    • It was later endorsed by the UN General Assembly. Membership is open to all members of the WMO and UN.
    • The IPCC produces reports that contribute to the work of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the main international treaty on climate change.
    • The objective of the UNFCCC is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system.”
    • The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report was a critical scientific input into the UNFCCC’s Paris Agreement in 2015.

    What are IPCC reports?

    • IPCC reports cover the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.
    • The IPCC does not carry out original research, nor does it monitor climate or related phenomena itself.
    • Rather, it assesses published literature, including peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed sources.
    • However, the IPCC can be said to stimulate research in climate science.

    The Assessment Reports

    • The five previous assessment reports that have come out since the IPCC was established in 1988 have formed the basis of international climate change negotiations, and the actions of the governments.
    • Their value has been globally acknowledged, and the fourth assessment report, which came out in 2007, won the IPCC the Nobel Peace Prize.
    • Each of these voluminous reports, the last couple of them running into thousands of pages, have built upon the previous ones with updated knowledge and understanding of the climate system.
    • The reports have presented projections for temperature rise till 2100 under different scenarios and the kind of impacts that can be expected under each of these pathways.

    Key projections of the 6th Report

    Apart from incorporating the latest available scientific evidence, the Sixth Assessment Report is also attempting to provide more actionable information to help governments take policy decisions.

    • REGIONAL FOCUS: It is expected that this report would likely state what the scenarios for sea-level rise in the Bay of Bengal region is, not just what the average sea-level rise across the world is likely to be.
    • EXTREME EVENTS: There is expected to be bigger focus on extreme weather events, like the ones we have seen in the last few weeks.
    • CITIES: Densely populated mega-cities are supposed to be among the most vulnerable to impacts of climate change. The report is expected to present specific scenarios the climate change impacts on cities and large urban populations, and also implications for key infrastructure.
    • SYNERGIES: IPCC is expected to present a more integrated understanding of the situation, cross-link evidence and discuss trade-offs between different options or pathways, and also likely to cover social implications of climate change action by countries.

    Why it matters?

    • The IPCC assessment reports have been extremely influential in directing the dialogue and action on climate change.
    • The First Assessment Report led to the setting up of the UNFCCC, the umbrella agreement under which international negotiations on climate change take place every year.
    • The Second Assessment Report was the basis for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol that ran till last year, and the Fifth Assessment Report, which came out in 2014, guided the Paris Agreement.
    • The global climate architecture is now governed by the Paris Agreement, which replaced the Kyoto Protocol from this year.
    • There have been enough indications to suggest that global action was far below what was needed to keep the temperatures below 2°C, as mandated under the Paris Agreement.
    • In the immediate future, the IPCC report could serve as the most important warning towards the rapidly closing window of opportunity.

    Try this PYQ now:

    Q.The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international treaty drawn at:

    (a) United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, Stockholm,1972

    (b) UN Conference on Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro, 1992

    (c) World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002

    (d) UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen, 2009

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”9729137kxt” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here: [/wpdiscuz-feedback]

    Back2Basics: UNFCCC

    • The UNFCCC established an international environmental treaty to combat “dangerous human interference with the climate system”, in part by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
    • It was signed by 154 states at the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992.

  • Net-Zero Concept in Climate Change

    Independent charitable organization Oxfam has said that ‘net zero’ carbon targets that many countries have announced maybe a “dangerous distraction” from the priority of cutting carbon emissions.

    What does Net-Zero mean?

    • Net-zero, which is also referred to as carbon-neutrality, does not mean that a country would bring down its emissions to zero.
    • That would be gross-zero, which means reaching a state where there are no emissions at all, a scenario hard to comprehend.
    • Therefore, net-zero is a state in which a country’s emissions are compensated by absorption and removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

    Achieving net-zero targets

    • One way by which carbon can be absorbed is by creating carbon sinks.
    • Until recently, the Amazon rainforests in South America, which are the largest tropical forests in the world, were carbon sinks.
    • But eastern parts of these forests have started emitting CO2 instead of absorbing carbon emissions as a result of significant deforestation.

    What’s the difference between gross zero and net zero?

    • Given the impact that carbon emissions have on our planet, you might wonder why we aren’t aiming for zero, or gross zero, rather than net-zero.
    • Gross zero would mean stopping all emissions, which isn’t realistically attainable across all sectors of our lives and industry. Even with best efforts to reduce them, there will still be some emissions.
    • Net-zero looks at emissions overall, allowing for the removal of any unavoidable emissions, such as those from aviation or manufacturing.
    • Removing greenhouse gases could be via nature, as trees take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or through new technology or changing industrial processes.

    What is carbon negativity?

    • It is even possible for a country to have negative emissions if the absorption and removal exceed the actual emissions.
    • Bhutan has negative emissions because it absorbs more than it emits.

    Which countries have recently announced net-zero targets?

    • In 2019, the New Zealand government passed the Zero Carbon Act, which committed the country to zero carbon emissions by 2050 or sooner.
    • In the same year, the UK’s parliament passed legislation requiring the government to reduce the UK’s net emissions of greenhouse gases by 100 per cent relative to 1990 levels by the year 2050.
    • More recently, US announced that the country will cut its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
    • The European Union too, has a similar plan, called “Fit for 55”, the European Commission has asked all of its 27 member countries to cut emissions by 55 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030.
    • Last year, China also announced that it would become net-zero by the year 2060 and that it would not allow its emissions to peak beyond what they are in 2030.

    What does the Oxfam report say?

    • “Land-hungry ‘net zero’ schemes could force an 80 per cent rise in global food prices and more hunger while allowing rich nations and corporates to continue “dirty business-as-usual”.
    • The report says that if the challenge of change is tackled only by way of planting more trees, then about 1.6 billion hectares of new forests would be required to remove the world’s excess carbon by 2050.
    • Currently, countries’ plans to cut emissions will only lead to a one percent reduction by the year 2030.
    • Oxfam estimates that it could rise by 80 percent by the year 2050.