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Subject: Climate Change

1. Global Warming and Issues
2. All about Pollution

  • A climate change narrative that India can steer

    A recent report by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) reveals that India has warmed up 0.7° C during 1901-2018.

    What was the report?

    Title: Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region (by MoES)

    (a) Climate severity

    • The 2010-2019 decade was the hottest with a mean temperature of 0.36° C higher than average.
    • Heatwaves continued to increase with no signs of diminishing greenhouse gas emissions despite lower activity since the novel coronavirus pandemic.
    • India may experience a 4.4° C rise by the end of this century.
    • Within 2050, rainfall is expected to rise by 6% and temperature by 1.6° C.
    • India’s Deccan plateau has seen eight out of 17 severe droughts since 1876 in the 21st century (2000-2003; 2015-2018).

    (b) Land degradation

    • To make things worse, India lost about 235 square kilometres to coastal erosion due to climate change-induced sea-level rise, land erosion and natural disasters such as tropical cyclones between 1990-2016.

    (c) Rising Internal Displacement

    • According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, India’s Internally Displaced Populations (IDPs) are rising due to damaging climate events.
    • Uttarakhand residents began deserting their homes after the Kedarnath floods in 2013 due to heavy precipitation that increases every year.
    • Recent figures are more alarming with 3.9 million displaced in 2020 alone, mostly due to Cyclone Amphan.

    India’s commitment to Climate Mitigation

    • India held the top 10 position for the second year in a row in 2020’s Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI).
    • The country received credit under all of the CCPI’s performance fields except renewable energy where India performed medium.
    • India vowed to work with COP21 by signing the Paris Agreement to limit global warming and submitted the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
    • It set a goal of reducing emissions intensity of GDP by 33%-35% and increasing green energy resources (non-fossil-oil based) to 40% of installed electric power capacity by 2030.
    • India cofounded with France at COP21, in 2015, the International Solar Alliance (ISA).

    Core concern

    (a) Good policies, weak practices

    • The question is, are these global alliances and world-leading policies being practised or are merely big promises with little implementation?
    • Despite leading ISA, India performed the least in renewable energy according to the CCPI’s performance of India.

    (b) Low compliance

    • India is not fully compliant with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of the NDCs and there are still risks of falling short of the 2° C goal.
    • According to India’s carbon emission trajectory, the country is en route to achieve barely half of the pledged carbon sink by 2030.
    • To achieve the Paris Agreement’s NDC target, India needs to produce 25 million-30 million hectares of forest cover by 2030 — a third of current Indian forestation and trees.
    • Going by the facts, it seems India has overpromised on policies and goals as it becomes difficult to deliver on the same.

    Why COP26 matters

    • The Glasgow COP26 offers India a great opportunity to reflect on the years since the Paris Agreement and update NDCs to successfully meet the set targets.
    • India is expected to be the most populated country by 2027, overtaking China, contributing significantly to the global climate through its consumption pattern.
    • India is in a rather unique position to have a significant influence on global climate impact in the new decade.

    Conclusion

    • India believes that climate actions must be nationally determined.
    • However, the Paris Agreement for developing countries should be at the core of decision-making.
    • India has the ability to improve its global positioning by leading a favourable climate goal aspiration for the world to follow.
    • The country has the opportunity to not only save itself from further climate disasters but also be a leader in the path to climate change prevention.

    Back2Basics: COP26, Glasgow

    • The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, is the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference.
    • It is scheduled to be held in the city of Glasgow, Scotland between 31 October and 12 November 2021, under the presidency of the United Kingdom.
    • This conference is the first time that Parties are expected to commit to enhanced ambition since COP21.
    • Parties are required to carry out every five years, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, a process colloquially known as the ‘ratchet mechanism’.

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  • Thawing Permafrost

    The latest IPCC report has warned that increasing global warming will result in reductions in Arctic permafrost and the thawing of the ground is expected to release greenhouse gases like methane and carbon dioxide.

    What is Permafrost?

    • ‘Permafrost’ or permanently frozen ground is land that has been frozen at or below 0 degrees Celsius for two or more consecutive years.
    • A staggering 17 per cent of Earth’s entire exposed land surface is comprised of permafrost.
    • Composed of rock, sediments, dead plant and animal matter, soil, and varying degrees of ice, permafrost is mainly found near the poles, covering parts of Greenland, Alaska, Northern Canada, Siberia and Scandinavia.
    • The Arctic region is a vast ocean, covered by thick ice on the surface (called sea ice), surrounded by land masses that are also covered with snow and ice.

    Permafrost thawing

    • When permafrost thaws, water from the melted ice makes its way to the caves along with ground sediments, and deposits on the rocks.
    • In other words, when permafrost thaws, the rocks grow and when permafrost is stable and frozen, they do not grow.

    Why thawing?

    • The link between the Siberian permafrost and Arctic sea ice can be explained by two factors:
    • One is heat transport from the open Arctic Ocean into Siberia, making the Siberian climate warmer.
    • The second is moisture transport from open seawater into Siberia, leading to thicker snow cover that insulates the ground from cold winter air, contributing to its warming.
    • This is drastically different from the situation just a couple of decades ago when the sea ice acted as a protective layer, maintaining cold temperatures in the region and shielding the permafrost from the moisture from the ocean.
    • If sea ice (in the summer) is gone, permafrost start thawing.

    Impact on Climate Change

    • Due to relentlessly rising temperatures in the region, since the late-twentieth century, the Arctic sea ice and surrounding land ice are melting at accelerating rates.
    • When permafrost thaws due to rising temperatures, the microbes in the soil decompose the dead organic matter (plants and animals) to produce methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), both potent greenhouse gases.
    • CH4 is at least 80 times more powerful than CO2 on a decadal timescale and around 25 times more powerful on a century timescale.
    • The greenhouse gases produced from thawing permafrost will further increase temperatures which will, in turn, lead to more permafrost thawing, forming an unstoppable and irreversible self-reinforcing feedback loop.
    • Experts believe this process may have already begun. Giant craters and ponds of water (called ‘thermokarst lakes’) formed due to thawing have been recorded in the Arctic region. Some are so big that they can be seen from space.

    Why a matter of concern?

    • An estimated 1,700 billion tonnes — twice the amount currently present in the atmosphere — of carbon is locked in all of the world’s permafrost.
    • Even if half of that were to be released to the atmosphere, it would be game over for the climate.
    • Scientific estimates suggest that the Arctic Ocean could be largely sea ice-free in the summer months by as early as 2030, based on observational trends, or as late as 2050, based on climate model projections.

    Potential to cause another pandemic

    Ans. Permafrost has many secrets.

    • When the permafrost was formed thousands of years ago, there weren’t many humans who lived in that region which was necessarily very cold.
    • Researchers recently found mammoths in the permafrost in Russia.
    • And some of these mammoth carcasses when they begin to degrade again may reveal bacteria that were frozen thousands of years ago.
    • So there will be surprises. But whether they will be lethal surprises is just not possible to say.

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  • Climate Action and Finance Mobilization Dialogue (CAFMD)

    India and the US has together launched the “Climate Action and Finance Mobilization Dialogue (CAFMD)”.

    What is CAFMD?

    • The CAFMD is one of the two tracks of the India-U.S. Climate and Clean Energy Agenda 2030 partnership launched at the Leaders’ Summit on Climate in April 2021, by PM Modi and US President Mr. Biden.
    • The dialogue will strengthen India-US bilateral cooperation on climate and environment.
    • It will also help to demonstrate how the world can align swift climate action with inclusive and resilient economic development, taking into account national circumstances and sustainable development priorities.

    Key agendas

    • The US will collaborate with India to work towards installing 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030.
    • Currently, India’s installed power capacity is projected to be 476 GW by 2021-22 and is expected to rise to at least 817 GW by 2030.

    CAFMD would have three pillars:

    1. Climate Action Pillar: which would have joint proposals looking at ways in emissions could be reduced in the next decade.
    2. Setting out a Roadmap: to achieving the 450GW in transportation, buildings and industry.
    3. Finance Pillar: would involve collaborating on attracting finance to deploy 450 GW of renewable energy and demonstrate at scale clean energy technologies.

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  • Places in news: Qeqertaq Avannarleq Island

    A group of researchers who went out to collect samples off the coast of Greenland in July found themselves on a tiny, uninhabited and previously unknown island.

    Qeqertaq Avannarleq

    • Measuring 60×30 metres and with a peak of three metres above sea level, it has now become the new northernmost piece of land on Earth.
    • Before this, Oodaaq was marked as the Earth’s northernmost terrain.
    • The new island is made up of seabed mud and moraine, i.e. soil, rock and other material left behind by moving glaciers, and has no vegetation.
    • The group has suggested the discovery be named ‘Qeqertaq Avannarleq’, which is Greenlandic for “the northernmost island”.

    How this island came to existence?

    Ans. Undoubtedly, climate change in Greenland

    • Global warming has had a severe effect on the ice sheet of Greenland.
    • The new island, which was exposed by shifting pack ice, is, however, not a direct consequence of climate change.

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  • India must commit to net zero emissions

    Context

    The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November in Glasgow is shaping up to be the most important climate meeting since the Paris Agreement in 2015.

    What are net-zero emissions?

    Carbon neutrality refers to achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. This can be done by balancing emissions of carbon dioxide with its removal or by eliminating emissions from society.

    Increase in pace and scale of climate action

    • Over 50% of the global economy is already committed to net zero emissions by 2050.
    • Over 100 countries have already committed to net zero emissions by 2050, with more expected at COP26.
    • The pace and scale of climate action are only set to increase, with the recent IPCC report unequivocal on the need for urgent and stronger responses.
    • It is not only governments that are increasing climate action. The business world is too, not just to protect themselves against the risks of climate change but also to take advantage of the massive opportunities arising as the global economy shifts to net-zero emissions.

    Why India should commit to a net-zero target

    • National interest due to vulnerability: India itself has a national interest in ambitious global and national climate action.
    • It is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change and, therefore, should be among the more active against the threats.
    • Influence as a rising power: Second, as a rising power, India naturally seeks stronger influence globally.
    • Being an outlier on the global challenge facing our generation does not support this aim.
    • Drag on international diplomacy: India’s reluctance to commit to net-zero will become a significant drag on India’s international diplomacy.
    • This applies not just to key relationships like with the U.S., but also with much of the Group of 77 (G77) states, who are increasingly concerned to see climate action, and in multilateral groupings such as the United Nations and ASEAN-APEC.
    • Interconnected with the economy: There is no longer a trade-off between reducing emissions and economic growth.
    • For example, the U.K. has reduced emissions by over 40% and grown its economy by over 70% since 1990.
    • Solar energy costs have fallen 90% in recent years, providing the cheapest electricity in India ever seen.
    • Also, given the negative impacts, addressing climate change in India’s economic development is now central to success, not an added luxury to consider.
    • The transition of the global economy to net zero emissions is the biggest commercial opportunity in history.
    • In just the energy sector alone, an estimated $1.6 to $3.8 trillion of investment is required every year until 2050.

    India’s climate actions

    • India is set to significantly exceed its Paris Agreement commitment of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030.
    • Emphasis on renewable: India is impressing the world with its leading roll-out of renewable energy and target for 450GW by 2030, linked to its leadership on the International Solar Alliance and recent national hydrogen strategy.
    • Corporates: Indian corporates are also stepping up, with the Tata Group winning awards on sustainability, Mahindra committing to net-zero by 2040, and Reliance by 2035.
    • Notwithstanding reasonable arguments about historical responsibility, per capita emissions, and equity, India’s national interests in climate action are now engaged in ways that go significantly beyond waiting for donor support to drive ambition.

    The way forward: International cooperation

    • The world needs to work together for success in the form of stronger political engagement, policy support in areas of mutual challenge such as energy policy, carbon markets, and economic recovery.
    • Practical support and cooperation in areas like renewable energy and integrating it with the national grid, zero-emissions transport, decarbonising hard to abate sectors like steel, cement, and chemicals, and decarbonising agriculture offer significant scope to raise ambition.
    • As does working with India on innovative green financing for decarbonizing investment.

    Conclusion

    India’s tryst with destiny rests in its own remarkable hands, as it always has been. In a land where the earth is called mother, and Mahatma Gandhi, major religions, and the Constitution enshrine environmental care, commitment to net zero emissions by 2050 should almost be foretold.

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  • Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP)

    The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is drafting a Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP) in a bid to tackle climate challenges.

    What is the Mumbai Climate Action Plan?

    • Amid warnings of climate change leading to extreme weather events in the city, the civic body has started preparing the Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP).
    • It will look at climate resilience with mitigation and adaptation strategies by focusing on six areas —
    1. Sustainable waste management
    2. Urban greening and Biodiversity
    3. Urban flooding and Water Resource Management
    4. Building Energy Efficiency
    5. Air Quality and
    6. Sustainable Mobility
    • The plan is expected to be ready by November ahead of the United Nations Climate Change (COP26) conference at Glasgow, Scotland.

    Why does Mumbai need a climate action plan?

    Mumbai’s climate action plan will help set a vision and implement strategies to fight these climate challenges with mitigation and adaptation steps.

    • Flash floods: As per a study conducted by the World Resource Institute (WRI) India, the city will face two major climate challenges — the rise in temperature, and extreme rain events which will lead to flooding.
    • Temperature rise: The city has seen a constant rise in temperature after 2007, and a substantial increase in intense rainfall and storm events in the last five years.
    • Sea level rise: A recent report from the IPCC has warned that at least 12 Indian coastal cities including Mumbai will face a sea rise of 0.1 metres to 0.3 metres in the next three decades due to climate change.

    What is the greenhouse gas emission of the city?

    • The data show that Mumbai’s greenhouse gas emission was 34.3 million tonnes in 2019, and of which 24.23 million tonnes or 71 per cent came from the energy sector which is mainly based on coal.
    • At least 24 per cent or 82,21,902 tonnes is from transport, and the remaining 5 per cent or 18,53,741 tonnes from solid waste management.
    • The maximum contribution from the energy sector was mainly due to domestic and commercial usage of electricity.
    • As per the data, 95 percent of Mumbai’s electricity is coal-based and needs to be shifted to renewable energy to bring down emissions.

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  • Nationally Determined Contributions

    Context

    Despite accomplishments, global pressures are intensifying on India to commit more towards the Conference of the Parties (COP26), scheduled for November 2021 in Glasgow.

    India’s accomplishments

    • At the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (December 2020), India was the only G20 nation compliant with the agreement.
    • India has been ranked within the top 10 for two years consecutively in the Climate Change Performance Index.
    • The Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All (UJALA) scheme is the world’s largest zero-subsidy LED bulb programme for domestic consumers.
    •  India provided leadership for setting up the International Solar Alliance, a coalition of solar-resource-rich countries, and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.

    Why it is unfair to pressure India on climate action

    We can attempt to answer the question by comparing the achievements of other countries vis-à-vis India’s performance.

    • Historical perspective: World Bank data for CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) over two decades since the Kyoto protocol informs that at the current rate, both China and the U.S. could emit five times more than India in 2030.
    • The U.K.’s emission levels could be more than 1.5 times that of India.
    • Brazil, with its dense forests, may end up at similar levels.
    • Latest efforts: Last year, China, the world’s largest GHG emitter, joined the ‘race to zero’ and targets carbon neutrality by 2060.
    • Interestingly, it hopes to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 for bending the emissions curve.
    • Recently, the U.S. rejoined the Paris Agreement and committed to reducing emissions by 50%-52% in 2030 and reaching net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050.
    • The French government, during the novel coronavirus pandemic, set green conditions for bailing out its aviation industry.
    • However, the analysts say that no baseline for reducing emissions from domestic flights was fixed.
    • In Australia, complicated domestic politics prevented them from addressing the problem, despite the country being vulnerable, and stretches of the famous Great Barrier Reef having died in recent years.

    India’s performance

    • Exceeding the NDC commitment: India is on track (as reports/documents show) to meet and exceed the NDC commitment to achieve 40% electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based sources by 2030.
    • Reduction in emission intensity of GDP: Against the voluntary declaration for reducing the emission intensity of GDP by 20%-25% by 2020, India has reduced it by 24% between 2005-2016.
    • More importantly, we achieved these targets with around 2% out of the U.S.$100 billion committed to developing nations in Copenhagen (2009), realised by 2015.
    • Renewable energy expansion: India is implementing one of the most extensive renewable energy expansion programmes to achieve 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030.
    • Investment in green measures: As part of the fiscal stimulus after the pandemic, the Government announced several green measures, including:
    • a $26.5-billion investment in biogas and cleaner fuels,
    • $3.5 billion in incentives for producing efficient solar photovoltaic (PV)
    • and advanced chemistry cell battery, and $780 million towards an afforestation programme.
    •  India’s contribution to global emissions is well below its equitable share of the worldwide carbon budget by any equity criterion.

    Conclusion

    To sum up, India has indeed walked the talk. Other countries must deliver on their promises early and demonstrate tangible results ahead of COP26.

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  • Melting of the Greenland’s Snow Cover

    Recently the summit of Greenland received rain and not snow. This has sparked fear as scientists are pointing to it as evidence that Greenland is warming rapidly.

    About Greenland

    • Greenland is the world’s largest island located between the Arctic and Atlantic oceans, east of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
    • It is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.
    • Though physiographically a part of the continent of North America, Greenland has been politically and culturally associated with Europe (specifically Norway and Denmark, the colonial powers).
    • The majority of its residents are Inuit, whose ancestors migrated from Alaska through Northern Canada, gradually settling across the island by the 13th century.
    • It has three-quarters of its surface covered with a permanent ice sheet, which is increasingly coming under threat because of climate change.

    Rain at Greenland: The rarest phenomenon

    • At the highest point on Greenland’s ice sheet, the US maintains a Summit Station, a research facility that observes changes occurring over the island as well as in Arctic weather.
    • Researchers observed rain at the normally frigid summit, with the precipitation extending up to Greenland’s southeast coast.
    • The rain, coupled with warm conditions, caused a major melting event at the summit.
    • This led to rapid ice melting running off into the ocean in volumes, thus accelerating global sea-level rise.

    A cause of worry

    • Greenland, which is two-thirds the size of India, already witnessed one of its most severe melting events.
    • It has lost 8.5 billion tons of surface mass in one day– the third such extreme event in the past decade.
    • The UN’s “code red” climate report released last week concluded that the burning of fossil fuels led to Greenland melting in the last 20 years.
    • The rapid melting is also threatening polar bears, which now have to make their way hundreds of kilometers towards Greenland’s interior from the coasts, where they usually find enough food.

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  • India ratifies Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol

    The Union Cabinet has given its approval for ratification of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer for phase down of Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) by India.

    What is Montreal Protocol?

    • The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is an international agreement made in 1987.
    • It was designed to stop the production and import of ozone-depleting substances and reduce their concentration in the atmosphere to help protect the earth’s ozone layer.
    • It sits under the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer.

    Objectives

    • The convention was adopted in 1985 and has highlighted the adverse effect of human activity on ozone levels in the stratosphere and the discovery of the ‘ozone hole’.
    • Its objectives are to promote cooperation on the adverse effects of human activities on the ozone layer.
    • It has since undergone nine revisions, in 1990 (London), 1991 (Nairobi), 1992 (Copenhagen), 1993 (Bangkok), 1995 (Vienna), 1997 (Montreal), 1998 (Australia), 1999 (Beijing) and 2016 (Kigali).

    India and the Protocol

    • India became a Party to the Protocol on 19 June 1992 and since then has ratified the amendments.

    What is the Kigali Amendment?

    • It is an international agreement to gradually reduce the consumption and production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).
    • It is a legally binding agreement designed to create rights and obligations in international law.
    • While HFCs do not deplete the stratospheric ozone layer, they have high global warming potential ranging from 12 to 14,000, which has an adverse impact on climate.

    What are the Ozone Depleting Substances?

    Ozone-depleting substances are chemicals that destroy the earth’s protective ozone layer. They include:

    • chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
    • halons
    • carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)
    • methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3)
    • hydro Bromo fluorocarbons (HBFCs)
    • hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
    • methyl bromide (CH3Br)
    • bromochloromethane (CH2BrCl)

    Where are they used?

    The main uses of ozone-depleting substances include:

    • CFCs and HCFCs in refrigerators and air conditioners,
    • HCFCs and halons in fire extinguishers,
    • CFCs and HCFCs in foam,
    • CFCs and HCFCs as aerosol propellants, and
    • Methyl bromide for fumigation of soil, structures and goods to be imported or exported.

    Now answer this PYQ:

    Q.Consider the following statements:

    Chlorofluorocarbons, known as ozone-depleting substances are used:

    1. In the production of plastic foams
    2. In the production of tubeless tyres
    3. In cleaning certain electronic components
    4. As pressurizing agents in aerosol cans

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (CSP 2012)

    (a) 1, 2 and 3 only

    (b) 4 only

    (c) 1, 3 and 4 only

    (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”1wrtcabaix” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

    Why phase them out?

    Implementation strategy and targets:

    • India will complete its phase-down of HFCs in 4 steps from 2032 onwards with a cumulative reduction of 10% in 2032, 20% in 2037, 30% in 2042, and 80% in 2047.

    Major Impact

    • HFCs phasedown is expected to prevent the emission of up to 105 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent of GHGs, helping to avoid up to 0.5 degrees Celsius of global temperature rise by 2100, while continuing to protect the ozone layer.
    • It will achieve energy efficiency gains^ and carbon dioxide emissions reduction – a “climate co-benefit,”
    • HFCs phrase-down implementation will involve synergies to maximize the economic arid social co-benefits, besides environmental gains.
    • There would be scope for domestic manufacturing of equipment as well as alternative non-HFC and low-global warming potential chemicals to enable the industry to transition to the low global warming potential alternatives as per the agreed HFC phase-down schedule.
    • In addition, there would be opportunities to promote domestic innovation for new generation alternative refrigerants and related technologies.

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  • The message from the IPCC report

    Context

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). It is the first of four that the Panel will issue over the next one and a half years.

    What does the report say?

    • Global surface temperature is now higher by 1.07oC since the pre-industrial era.
    • The impact of climate change on the atmosphere, oceans and land is unmistakably of human origin and this impact is picking up pace.
    • Carbon dioxide is the dominant source of warming.
    • Aerosols contribute to reducing the impact of warming by other greenhouse gases, by almost a third.
    • Methane reduction, while needed overall, is particularly significant only as part of the endgame as the drastic reduction of aerosols actually leads to an increase in warming.
    • The report expectedly projects an increase in climate extremes due to global warming, with heatwaves, extreme rainfall events and occurrence of extreme sea levels all expected to intensify and be more frequent.
    • A major finding of the report is that air pollution reduction and steep climate change mitigation are not complementary goals but require independent efforts over the short and medium-term
    • With the inclusion of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology’s Earth System Model among the climate models used in AR6, India too has joined the climate modelling fraternity.

    About the net-zero emission targets

    •  The report’s clear message is that reaching net zero was not the determining factor for the world to limit itself to a 1.5oC , or 2oC, or indeed any specific temperature increase.
    • The report is clear that it is the cumulative emissions in reaching net zero that determine the temperature rise.
    • India’s Ministry for Environment, Forest and Climate Change was quick to note this point about net zero in a statement, adding that “historical cumulative emissions are the cause of the climate crisis that the world faces today”
    • The limitations of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5oC are so stringent — a mere 500 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide for an even chance of keeping to the limit — that they cannot be met by promises of net-zero 30 years from now.
    • Equally, the disconcerting finding is that the world is set to cross the 1.5oC limit within 10-15 years.

    Implications for India

    •  India has contributed less than 5% of global cumulative emissions to date, with per capita annual emissions a third of the global average.
    • India is also the only nation among the G20 with commitments under the Paris Agreement that are even 2oC warming-compatible.
    • India needs its development space urgently to cope with the future, one where global temperature increase may be closer to 2oC.
    • Even if India completely stops its emission which is 3 billion tonnes in carbon dioxide equivalent terms, for the next 30 years, with others’ emissions remaining the same, will buy the world less than two years of additional time for meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.

    Way forward

    • Equity: Focusing on definite cumulative emission targets keeping equity and historical responsibility in view,
    • Immediate reduction by developed countries: Immediate emission reductions by the developed countries with phase-out dates for all fossil fuels.
    • Investment: Massive investment in new technologies and their deployment,
    • Climate finance: a serious push to the mobilisation of adequate climate finance is the need of the hour.

    Conclusion

    This is the message that the IPCC report has sent to this year’s climate summit and the world. The message is a dire warning, all the stakeholders should heed the warning.

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