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Subject: International Relations

  • More than court action, revisit the Indus Waters Treaty

    Indus

    What’s the news?

    • India raised objection when Pakistan initiated arbitration at the Permanent Court of Arbitration to address the interpretation and application of the IWT.
    • On July 6, 2023, the court unanimously passed a decision (which is binding on both parties without appeal) rejecting each of India’s objections.

    Central Idea

    • The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), 1960 has long been hailed as a remarkable example of cooperation between India and Pakistan, despite their tumultuous relationship. The treaty has endured numerous conflicts and established detailed procedures for dispute resolution. However, in recent years, there has been an increase in the utilization of judicial recourse to settle disputes arising from India’s construction of run-of-river hydroelectric projects.

    What is Indus Water Treaty (IWT)?

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three eastern rivers of India the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India.
    • The control over the water flowing in three western rivers of India the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan

    Basis of the treaty

    • Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.
    • Underlying the treaty is the principle that water does not recognise international boundaries and upper riparian’s have a responsibility to lower riparian’s.

    What are the Disputes and Challenges?

    • Construction and design of run-of-river hydroelectric projects by India- Kishanganga (a tributary of the Jhelum) and Ratle, a hydro-electric project on the Chenab- objections from Pakistan– potentially impact the flow and utilization of water downstream.
    • Pakistan initiated arbitration at Permanent Court of Arbitration- India objected to the jurisdiction of the court– advocating for the use of the neutral expert process instead.
    • Pervasive atmosphere of distrust and strained relations between India and Pakistan, which hampers effective cooperation under the treaty.
    • As precipitation patterns and runoff are altered, the assumption of fixed water availability under the IWT becomes increasingly uncertain.
    • The treaty’s allocation of water resources does not adequately consider the potential impact of climate change on future water availability, creating a need for flexible mechanisms.
    • The IWT does not sufficiently address the rapidly growing industrial and agricultural needs of both countries.

    Principles of water course

    • Equitable and Reasonable Utilization (ERU): This principle emphasizes the fair and reasonable use of water resources among riparian states.
    • No Harm or Do No Harm Rule (NHR): The no harm principle states that riparian states should not cause significant harm to other states sharing the same watercourse. It requires taking necessary measures to prevent or mitigate any adverse impacts that might arise from water-related activities.
    • Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM): IWRM approach considers water resources as an interconnected system, taking into account social, economic, and environmental factors. Achieve optimal and sustainable use of water resources.
    • Basin-wide Management: Water resources should be managed at the basin or watershed level, as it is the most natural unit for water management.
    • Prior Informed Consent: Obtaining the consent of affected communities and stakeholders before implementing projects or activities that may have significant impacts on water resources.
    • Environmental Protection: Need to protect and conserve the ecological integrity of watercourses. Preservation of aquatic ecosystems, biodiversity, and water quality.
    • The Role of the World Bank: The World Bank, as a party to the treaty, could utilize its platform to foster a transnational alliance of epistemic communities.

    Conclusion

    • By incorporating principles of equitable water utilization and preventing significant harm, the IWT can better address the evolving needs and climate change impacts of India and Pakistan. The World Bank’s involvement in facilitating collaboration and policy convergence could play a pivotal role in shaping a revised treaty that fosters long-term cooperation and sustainability in the shared management of the Indus waters

    Also read:

    Indus Water Treaty: A Case of Hydropolitics

  • EAM attends BIMSTEC Foreign Ministers’ Meet

    bimstec

    Central Idea

    • The first-ever Foreign Ministers’ meeting of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) commenced in Bangkok, Thailand.

    Understanding BIMSTEC

    bimstec

    • Origins and Membership: BIMSTEC, initially known as BIST-EC (Bangladesh-India-Sri Lanka-Thailand Economic Cooperation), was established in 1997 with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration.
    • Newest members: Myanmar joined in 1997, followed by Bhutan and Nepal in 2004.
    • Population and GDP: The organization comprises seven member countries located around the Bay of Bengal, representing approximately 22% of the world’s population. The combined GDP of the member states is close to $2.7 trillion.
    • Sectoral Focus: BIMSTEC’s cooperation initially focused on six sectors: trade, technology, energy, transport, tourism, and fisheries.
    • India’s role: India’s sectoral responsibilities within BIMSTEC include security, counter-terrorism, transnational crime, disaster management, and energy.

    Significance of BIMSTEC as a Regional Forum

    (A) Revitalization and Engagement:

    • BIMSTEC received limited attention until India reinvigorated its engagement in October 2016, following the terrorist attack in Uri.
    • India hosted an outreach summit with BIMSTEC leaders alongside the BRICS summit in Goa.

    (B) Regional aspirations

    Each BIMSTEC member has strategic incentives for the organization’s growth.

    1. Bangladesh seeks regional significance
    2. Sri Lanka aims to connect with Southeast Asia and become a hub for the Indo-Pacific region
    3. Nepal and Bhutan aim to access the Bay of Bengal region
    4. Myanmar and Thailand aim to balance China’s influence in Southeast Asia by strengthening ties with India

    India and BIMSTEC

    • BIMSTEC offers India a platform to prioritize its foreign policy goals of “Neighborhood First” and “Act East”.
    • This is longer run seeks to connect South and Southeast Asia, as well as the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal.

    China’s Role and India’s Agenda

    • Chinese Influence and Concerns: China’s expanding presence in South and Southeast Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative has increased its interest in the Bay of Bengal region.
    • Act of counterbalancing: BIMSTEC becomes an arena for India to counterbalance Chinese investments.
    • Promoting Connectivity: India can utilize BIMSTEC to promote connectivity projects aligned with international norms, countering Chinese projects that are perceived to violate these norms.
    • Bay of Bengal as a Peaceful Region: India can showcase the Bay of Bengal as a region of openness and peace, highlighting the contrast with China’s behavior in the South China Sea.
    • Regional Stability: BIMSTEC could establish codes of conduct for regional freedom of navigation and advocate for a Bay of Bengal Zone of Peace to limit extra-regional powers’ military actions.

    Conclusion

    • BIMSTEC has the potential to contribute to peace, stability, and economic development in the Bay of Bengal region and beyond.
    • Continued efforts and collaboration among member states are necessary to harness the full potential of BIMSTEC and achieve common goals.

  • Tech Diplomacy

    What’s the News?

    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visits to the US and France have focused on enhancing strategic and economic cooperation in the technology sector. These visits took place against the backdrop of global political and economic instability, including the Ukraine war and concerns surrounding China’s rise.

    Central Idea

    • Prime Minister Modi’s visits to the US and France have bolstered India’s tech diplomacy efforts, enabling cooperation in critical areas such as defence technology and digital advancements. The partnerships formed during these visits are set to define the trajectory of tech usage, management, and proliferation in the years leading up to the centenary of these bilateral relationships in 2047.

    What is mean by tech diplomacy?

    • Tech diplomacy refers to the strategic use of technology and digital diplomacy to foster international relations, promote cooperation, and address global challenges.
    • It involves leveraging technology as a tool for diplomacy, enabling countries to engage with each other, build alliances, and shape the global technology landscape

    Defence Technology Partnerships established during the visits

    1. United States:
    1. General Electric and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL):
    • MoU- General Electric and HAL – indigenous manufacture of GE F-414 jet engines in India.
    • These engines are intended for use in the Light Combat Aircraft Mk 2, and the partnership involves the transfer of technology (TOT).
    • This collaboration strengthens India’s indigenous defence production capabilities and supports the development of advanced combat aircraft
    1. General Atomics: India procured- 31 MQ-9B HALE (High-Altitude Long Endurance) Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) from General Atomics.
    • These advanced UAVs provide critical surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities to bolster India’s defense preparedness.
    1. France:
    1. Safran and Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO):
    • Safran, a French aerospace company, and DRDO- jointly develop a military jet engine in India– Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
    • Enhance India’s indigenous defense manufacturing capabilities– strengthen its air superiority
    1. Safran and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL):
    • Safran and HAL- co-develop the engine for the Indian Multi-Role Helicopter (IMRH)
    • Advancing India’s capabilities in helicopter technology and reinforces its defense preparedness

    Advancing Digital Technology Cooperation

    1. United States:
    • The Indo-US iCET initiative- foundation for discussions and agreements- digital technology.
    • Framework for cooperation- cybersecurity, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing (QC), semiconductors, and high-performance computing (HPC).
    • MoU- Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY)- US- foster cooperation in digital technologies.
    • Collaboration- semiconductor capabilities, developing AI and QC systems, and establishing standards for global cooperation.
    1. France:
    • Based on the Indo-French roadmap on Cyber Security and Digital Technology adopted in 2019, an MoU on cooperation in digital technologies was signed between the MeitY and the French Ministry of Economy.
    • This agreement aimed to strengthen collaboration in areas such as cybersecurity, AI, and QC.

    Addressing Cybersecurity and Digital Infrastructure

    1. United States:
    • The US and India- importance of India’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI)- reducing the global digital divide.
    • The US expressed support for India’s DPI initiatives, recognizing their potential to bridge the digital divide and promote inclusive growth.
    1. France:
    • The MoU- Indo-French roadmap on Cyber Security and Digital Technology- strengthen cooperation in cybersecurity.
    • Agreement- critical infrastructure protection, cybersecurity education, and skills development
    • France joined the US – endorsing India’s efforts to bridge the digital gap and promote digital inclusion.

    How India can capitalize on these partnerships?

    • Invest in research and development – enhance its technological capabilities.
    • Leverage the expertise and resources available.
    • Training programs, educational reforms, and skill development– nurture a talented pool – AI, cybersecurity, quantum computing, and digital technology.
    • Encouraging entrepreneurship- favourable ecosystem for startups- incentives to startups
    • Clear policies and regulations that promote collaboration, protect intellectual property rights, facilitate technology transfer, and ensure data security.
    • State-of-the-art research facilities, testing laboratories, and advanced digital infrastructure to support collaborative projects and attract investments.

    Conclusion

    • Prime Minister Modi’s historic visits to the US and France have laid the groundwork for strengthening India’s technological diplomacy. By focusing on capacity-building and leveraging these partnerships, India can navigate the strategic journey of technological advancements in the coming years, cementing its position as a key player on the global stage

    Also read:

    iCET: Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies between India and US

  • UK signs CPTPP Trade Deal

    cptttp

    Central Idea

    • The UK has formally signed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a major Indo-Pacific trade deal.
    • Joining the bloc is seen as the UK’s biggest trade deal since leaving the European Union.

    What is CPTPP?

    • The CPTPP, established in 2018, reduces trade barriers among 11 countries, including Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, and Vietnam.
    • Objectives of CPRPP include-
    1. Tariff Reduction and Market Opening: The agreement requires countries to eliminate or significantly reduce tariffs and make commitments to open services and investment markets.
    2. Addressing Competition and Intellectual Property: The CPTPP includes rules on competition, intellectual property rights, and protections for foreign companies.
    3. Expanding Membership: While the CPTPP aims to counter China’s regional dominance, China and other countries such as Taiwan, Ukraine, Costa Rica, Uruguay, and Ecuador have applied to join.

    Importance of CPTPP for the UK

    • Cutting Tariffs and Expanding Trade: The UK government anticipates reduced tariffs for UK exports to Asia Pacific countries. Joining the CPTPP expands trade opportunities, as the bloc represents 15% of global trade and a combined GDP of £12 trillion.
    • Post-Brexit Trade Strategy: After leaving the EU, the UK seeks to deepen trade ties with the Pacific region through its “Global Britain” strategy.
    • Seeking Faster-Growing Economies: The UK aims to establish trade deals with countries and blocs with faster-growing economies than the EU, given limitations in achieving agreements with major powers like China and the United States.

    Challenges and Criticisms

    • Economic Impact of Brexit: Critics argue that trade deals like the CPTPP will struggle to compensate for the economic damage caused by leaving the EU, which remains the UK’s largest trading bloc.
    • Long-Term Productivity Forecast: Brexit is projected to reduce the UK’s long-term productivity by 4%, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
    • Existing Trade Deals and Economic Boost: The UK already has trade deals with most CPTPP members, and the projected economic boost from joining the agreement is relatively modest at 0.08% annually.

    Recent Developments

    • Information Gathering Process: CPTPP members are assessing aspiring economies’ ability to meet the bloc’s high standards as part of the decision-making process for future membership.
    • Collective Decision-Making: The decision on new members and the timeline for their inclusion will be made collectively by existing CPTPP participants.

  • First GSI Survey of the Siachen

    siachen

    Central Idea

    • NJ 9842 vs. 5Q 131 05 084: Exploring India-Pakistan’s last demarcated point and the Siachen glacier’s assigned number by the Geological Survey of India (GSI).
    • Lack of recognition: Despite the historical importance, the first Siachen survey remains overlooked by scholars and mountaineers.

    About Siachen

    • Location: Siachen Glacier is located in the eastern Karakoram range in the Himalayas, just northeast of the point where the Line of Control between India and Pakistan ends.
    • Significance: As the second-longest glacier in the world’s non-polar areas, Siachen Glacier stretches for 76 km, holding historical and strategic importance.

    Geographical and Political Context

    • Border dispute: Both India and Pakistan claim sovereignty over the entire Siachen region, leading to intermittent conflict since 1984.
    • Military presence: The region houses the highest battleground on Earth, with permanent military outposts at altitudes above 6,000 m (20,000 ft).
    • International recognition: Efforts to establish a transboundary peace park and nominate the region for the World Heritage List have been made.

    Why discuss Siachen?

    • Human casualties: Harsh weather conditions have claimed more lives than combat, with both India and Pakistan sustaining significant losses.
    • Failed demilitarization attempts: Despite the desire to disengage from the costly military outposts, the lack of official recognition of the current line of control has hindered progress.
    • Mountaineering expeditions and awareness: Limited expeditions have been allowed to showcase the dominance of Indian troops and raise awareness about the region.

    The First Siachen Survey

    • V.K. Raina’s leadership: In June 1958, V.K. Raina, an Indian geologist, conducted the inaugural Siachen survey.
    • Unforeseen conflict: The peaceful region surveyed in 1958 became a disputed area between India and Pakistan, leading to Operation Meghdoot in 1984.

    Geologists’ Himalayan Exploration

    • Previous expeditions: Raina’s involvement in the Saser Kangri expedition and the geological survey of the Leh-Manali Highway.
    • International Geophysical Year: The significance of 1958 as a year of geological studies worldwide.
    • GSI’s limited resources: GSI’s plan to study the Himalayan glacier systems, assigning Raina the responsibility of surveying five glaciers in Ladakh.

    Raina’s Journey and Findings

    • Expedition details: Raina’s team’s journey from Calcutta to Siachen, traveling by train, bus, and foot.
    • Glacier characteristics: Raina’s observations of the Siachen glacier, including the appearance of ice caves and the Nubra River’s flow.
    • Survey procedures: Mapping the snout region, establishing reference points, and capturing photographs for future analysis.

    Pakistan’s Response

    • No objections raised: Despite the expedition’s significance and publicity, Pakistan did not lodge any protests or objections against India’s presence on the glacier during the survey.
    • Reasons for indifference: The lack of objections can be attributed to the mutual demarcation under the Karachi ceasefire agreement and the absence of perceived threats or intentions of occupation.

    Challenging Pakistan’s Claims

    • Significance of the expedition: The 1958 GSI survey holds immense historical and geostrategic importance as it contradicts Pakistan’s early claims to the Siachen glacier.
    • Pakistan’s delayed claim: It was only 25 years later, in 1983, that Pakistan formally extended the Line of Control, staking its claim to the region, violating the Simla Agreement.
    • India’s response: India pre-empted Pakistan’s actions by occupying the strategic Saltoro Heights in April 1984, in response to Pakistan’s attempts to claim the Siachen glacier.

    Conclusion

    • Debunking myths: The survey establishes India’s early presence on the glacier and counters Pakistan’s claims.
    • Understanding the geostrategic implications: The survey’s role in shaping subsequent events in the Siachen conflict is vital to comprehend the significance of this expedition.

  • Quiet diplomacy could ease South China Sea tensions

    South China Sea

    What is the news?

    • During the fifth meeting of the Philippines-India Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation in New Delhi on June 29, the Foreign Ministers of India and the Philippines, S. Jaishankar and Enrique Manalo, respectively, discussed enhancing the bilateral partnership between the two countries. The meeting focused on maritime cooperation and addressing the South China Sea issue

    Central Idea

    • With a shared history of diplomatic relations spanning nearly 75 years and common maritime interests, the External Affairs Minister of India, S. Jaishankar, and the Secretary for Foreign Affairs of the Philippines, Enrique Manalo, laid out a roadmap to enhance the bilateral partnership in the 21st century.

    Significance and developments emerged from the meeting

    • Establishment of a resident defense attaché office in Manila: The decision to open a resident defense attaché office in Manila reflects a deeper commitment to defense cooperation between India and the Philippines. This move will facilitate closer coordination, information sharing, and joint defense initiatives.
    • Increased collaboration between the Coast Guards: The Coast Guards of India and the Philippines will enhance their collaboration, aiming to strengthen maritime security in the region. This includes joint patrols, information exchange, and joint operations to combat maritime threats.
    • Manila’s acquisition of naval assets with concessional credit from India: To bolster its maritime capabilities, the Philippines will acquire naval assets with the help of a concessional line of credit extended by India. This support will enhance the Philippines’ maritime defense capabilities and contribute to maintaining regional stability.
    • Expanded training and joint exercises on maritime security and disaster responses: Both countries will expand their training programs and conduct joint exercises focused on maritime security and disaster response. This cooperation will enhance operational readiness and preparedness to address maritime challenges, including disaster relief efforts.

    The South China Sea issue: A significant topic of discussion

    1. Agreement on regional and multilateral issues: Both India and the Philippines reached an agreement on regional and multilateral matters, particularly emphasizing the importance of maritime highways like the South China Sea.
    2. India’s position on international law and the 2016 Arbitral Award:
    • India reiterated its consistent position of adhering to international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
    • Notably, India made an unambiguous call to respect the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea, which represents a departure from India’s previous stance.
    • This shift signifies India’s recognition of the legitimacy of the Arbitral Award.
    1. Background of the Arbitration Case: The Philippines had submitted a case for arbitration to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) to address its disputes with China in the South China Sea. Despite China’s formal withdrawal from the arbitration, the proceedings continued under UNCLOS guidelines.
    2. Key findings of the Arbitral Award:
    • The PCA’s Award, released on July 12, 2016, rejected China’s claims of historical rights in the South China Sea.
    • The tribunal determined that any claims to resources within the nine-dash line were unfounded.
    • It also found that China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) through various actions, including interfering with fishing and petroleum exploration, constructing artificial islands, and failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from operating in the zone.

    What is Quiet diplomacy?

    • Quiet diplomacy refers to a diplomatic approach that focuses on behind-the-scenes negotiations and discussions conducted discreetly, away from public attention and media scrutiny.
    • It involves engaging in diplomatic efforts through confidential channels, informal dialogues, and private meetings to address sensitive issues and resolve conflicts.

    How Quiet diplomacy could ease South China Sea tensions

    • Confidence-Building Measures: Quiet diplomacy can facilitate the implementation of confidence-building measures among the claimant states. This can include agreements on joint military exercises, information sharing, or cooperative initiatives aimed at reducing tensions and building trust.
    • Open Communication: Quiet diplomacy allows for confidential and discreet communication between stakeholders, such as China and the claimant states. It provides a platform for open dialogue where concerns and perspectives can be expressed, leading to better understanding and the potential for resolving differences.
    • Mediation and Facilitation: Quiet diplomacy may involve the engagement of neutral third-party mediators or facilitators who can assist in bridging differences and guiding the negotiation process. These mediators can provide a neutral perspective, offer expertise, and help facilitate constructive dialogue among the stakeholders.
    • Informal Track-II Diplomacy: Quiet diplomacy encourages informal exchanges and dialogues between academic experts, think tanks, and non-governmental organizations. These interactions can provide alternative perspectives, generate innovative ideas, and contribute to a deeper understanding of the issues at hand.
    • Crisis Management: Quiet diplomacy can be applicable during times of crisis or heightened tensions in the South China Sea. It allows for confidential crisis management talks between relevant parties, enabling swift and discreet negotiations to de-escalate tensions and seek temporary agreements

    South China Sea

    Way forward

    • Dialogue for Conflict Resolution: The South China Sea issue requires a political framework and dialogue for resolution. Leaders of ASEAN nations are encouraged to engage in “quiet diplomacy to find a political solution, as legal methods may have limitations. Dialogue provides an opportunity for peaceful conflict resolution through negotiations and diplomatic channels.
    • Emphasis on a Code of Conduct: The establishment of a legally binding code of conduct is crucial for managing the South China Sea issue. ASEAN leaders are called upon to work towards developing and implementing such a code. A code of conduct can provide guidelines and rules to manage disputes, reduce tensions, and promote stability in the region.
    • Regional Unity and Cooperation: Regional cooperation and unity among ASEAN nations are essential to address the South China Sea issue effectively. Greater understanding and coordination among ASEAN members can strengthen their negotiating position and foster a united front in dealing with challenges related to territorial claims and maritime security.
    • Respect for International Law: Upholding international law, including UNCLOS, is emphasized in the article. Countries are encouraged to respect legal and diplomatic channels, adhere to their obligations under UNCLOS, and uphold the rights of coastal states. Adherence to international law is essential for maintaining stability, resolving disputes, and promoting a rules-based order in the South China Sea.

    Conclusion

    • By committing to a rules-based order and emphasizing the significance of international law, India underscores its commitment to regional stability and peace. The need for dialogue, political frameworks, and unity among ASEAN nations is crucial to achieving a peaceful resolution in the South China Sea, protecting vital maritime commons, and ensuring the uninterrupted flow of global trade.

    Also read:

    India’s Initiative for ASEAN Women in UN Peacekeeping

     

  • PM Modi to host SCO 2023 Summit

    sco

    Central Idea

    • The upcoming virtual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) hosted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, holds significant importance in the current geopolitical context.
    • Ashok Sajjanhar, a former Indian Foreign Service (IFS) officer and ambassador to several countries, shares his insights on the event and its potential outcomes.

    What is SCO?

    • SCO is an international organization founded in 2001.
    • It is primarily focused on promoting cooperation and regional stability among its member states.
    • The SCO originated from the Shanghai Five mechanism, which was established in 1996 to resolve border disputes and promote mutual trust among China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
    • Uzbekistan joined the organization in 2001, leading to its formation as the SCO.
    Member States China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan
    Objectives Promote regional security, stability, economic cooperation
    Cooperation Areas Political, security, economic, cultural
    Security Cooperation Joint military exercises, counter-terrorism operations, intelligence sharing
    Economic Cooperation Trade facilitation, investment, infrastructure development
    Key Bodies SCO Summit, SCO Business Council, Interbank Consortium of the SCO
    Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) Coordination of anti-terrorism efforts
    Dialogue Partners Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, Mongolia, among others
    Observer States Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, among others
    Outreach and Engagement United Nations, ASEAN, CIS, and other regional/international organizations

     

    Significance of the Meeting during the Russia-Ukraine War

    • Major participants: The summit is expected to see the participation of key leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif.
    • Declining Influence of Russia: The meeting provides an opportunity for President Putin to gauge the declining influence and relevance of Russia, particularly in the Central Asian countries.
    • Message for Resolution: The decreased importance of Russia’s role in the region may convey the need for a prompt resolution to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

    India’s Strategic Autonomy and Self-Assuredness

    • Successful India-US Relations: Prime Minister Modi’s recent successful visit to the United States highlights the growth of India-US relations.
    • India’s Role in SCO: India’s participation in the SCO while maintaining strong relations with the United States underscores its strategic autonomy and self-assuredness.

    Impact of PM Modi’s Statement to Mr. Putin

    • Asserting India’s Voice: PM Modi’s statement, “this is not the era of war,” showcased India’s capacity to communicate with President Putin.
    • Influencing Diplomatic Outcomes: The statement helped in securing the Bali G20 summit declaration and demonstrated India’s voice as a mediator between Russia and the West.

    Implications for India-China Relations

    • Unlikely Impact on Border Standoff: The virtual summit is unlikely to have any immediate impact on the India-China border standoff.
    • Ongoing Talks and Stalemate: Multiple rounds of talks between India and China have taken place, but there has been limited progress in de-escalation and disengagement at key points.
    • Snub to Pakistan: India’s strong stance on cross-border terrorism, as demonstrated in the past, is likely to be reiterated during the discussions.

    India’s Opportunities at SCO

    • Central Asian outreach: India has historical and cultural ties with Central Asian countries and aims to expand partnerships in the region.
    • Neglected Engagement: Post-Soviet independence, India’s engagement with these countries was hindered by its lack of direct access through Pakistan’s territory.
    • SCO as a Platform: India’s SCO membership allows for interaction at various levels and offers opportunities to strengthen ties with Central Asian countries.

    Conclusion

    • The SCO virtual summit presents a significant opportunity for India to engage with key regional players and enhance its profile and stature in Central Asia.
    • The summit’s outcomes, including the adoption of documents on various issues, will contribute to advancing India’s interests, strengthening trade ties, and promoting investments in the region.

  • Global South: Origins and Significance

    gobal south

    Central Idea

    • The unwillingness of many leading countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America to stand with NATO over the war in Ukraine has brought to the fore once again the term “Global South.”

    What is Global South?

    • The term “Global South” refers to countries that are often described as ‘developing’, ‘less developed’, or ‘underdeveloped’.
    • It encompasses countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, which are characterized by higher levels of poverty, income inequality, and harsh living conditions compared to the “Global North”.

    Historical Background

    • Emergence of the Term: The term ‘Global South’ was first used in 1969 by political activist Carl Oglesby, who argued that the war in Vietnam represented a history of northern “dominance over the global south”.
    • Transition from Third World: Prior to the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, these countries were commonly referred to as the ‘Third World’.
    • Momentum and Context: The term gained momentum following the end of the Cold War and the rise of the non-aligned movement.

    Features of the Global South

    • Lower-income Countries: The Global South primarily consists of lower-income countries located in Africa, Asia, and South America.
    • Geopolitical Background: Geopolitically, these nations have a history of imperialism and colonial rule.
    • Newly Industrialized Status: Many of these countries are in the process of industrialization and have been described as newly industrialized.
    • Prominent Countries: Prominent countries within the Global South include Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Mexico, known for their large populations and economies.

    Need for Classification

    • Critique of Earlier Terms: The East/West binary and the categorization of countries as developed/developing were criticized for perpetuating stereotypes and favoring Western ideals.
    • Cold War Context: The First World, Second World, and Third World classifications were associated with Cold War alliances.
    • Broad and Inclusive Classification: The term ‘Global South’ provides a broader classification based on shared history of colonization and similar socioeconomic indicators.

    Global South amid Ukrainian War

    • South-South Cooperation: South-South cooperation has emerged as countries like India and China challenge the dominant global order led by the US.
    • Questioning the North as the Ideal: The rise of Asian countries questions the notion of the North as the ideal.
    • Criticism of Classification: The classification of the Global South has been criticized for its broadness and concerns about resource accumulation, as well as the neglect of Africa.

    Significance of the Global South

    • India’s Role: India aims to unite Global South countries to adopt an action-oriented approach.
    • Potential for Progress: Cooperation within the Global South can unlock significant potential for progress, including technical and ideas exchanges, sharing of manufacturing best practices, and more.
    • Common Concerns: Energy security, justice, and sustainable energy transition are common concerns for the Global South, which India aims to highlight.

    Challenges for Consolidation

    • Debate over Climate Reparations: The ongoing debate over climate reparations has triggered controversy, as some argue that China and India should contribute given their increasing industrialization and historical carbon emissions.
    • Impact of Russia-Ukraine War: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has impacted the least developed countries (LDCs) and prompted them to align more closely with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
    • Dominance of the US: Despite the shift to a multipolar world, the US still dominates international affairs, posing challenges for the consolidation of the Global South.

    Way Forward

    • Active Engagement: India must actively engage with regional politics within the developing world to champion the Global South.
    • Tailored Policy Approach: It is crucial to recognize the diversity within the Global South and develop a policy vision that addresses the varying needs and capabilities of its member countries.

    Conclusion

    • Collaboration between the Global South and India can lead to significant advancements in various fields.
    • India’s development partnerships prioritize consultation, outcome orientation, people-centric approaches, and respect for the sovereignty of partner countries.
    • Distinguishing India’s approach from that of China can help avoid debt traps and financially unsound undertakings, promoting sustainable development within the Global South.

  • PM Modi to host SCO 2023 summit today: What’s on the table?

    Central idea

    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s virtual summit with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) holds immense significance. With the participation of key leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the meeting is poised to address crucial regional issues.

    Relevance of the topic

    • India’s strained relations with neighbouring countries and the ongoing war in Europe.
    • Negotiations and meetings of SCO hold significance for India specifically related to the India-china relations and border standoff

    Significance of the Meeting for India

    • Regional Engagement: As the host of the SCO meeting, India has the opportunity to actively engage with key regional players, including Russia, China, and Central Asian countries. This engagement allows India to strengthen its relations with neighboring nations and enhance regional cooperation on various fronts.
    • Showcase of Strategic Autonomy: India’s successful visit to the United States prior to the SCO summit highlights its ability to maintain positive relations with global powers while actively participating in regional groupings like the SCO. This demonstrates India’s strategic autonomy and self-assuredness, reinforcing its position as a reliable and influential player in global affairs.
    • Voice of Reason: PM Modi’s previous statement to President Putin, emphasizing that this is not the era of war, showcased India’s capacity to express its views to influential leaders. It highlighted India’s commitment to peaceful resolution and diplomacy, enhancing its international standing.
    • Strengthening Central Asian Ties: India’s participation in the SCO provides a valuable platform to strengthen and expand its relations with Central Asian countries. By actively engaging with them through the SCO, India can foster stronger bilateral ties and explore opportunities for trade, investment, and cooperation in various sectors.
    • Countering Cross-Border Terrorism: The SCO’s focus on combating terrorism and cross-border issues aligns with India’s priorities. Through participation in SCO initiatives and discussions, India can emphasize the importance of concerted efforts to address terrorism and promote regional stability.

    Changing Dynamics in Central Asia

    • Decline of Russian Influence: Central Asia, which was traditionally considered Russia’s backyard, has seen a decline in Russia’s influence in recent years. This decline is partly due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories. Central Asian countries, such as Kazakhstan, have openly expressed their non-support for Russia’s actions, signaling a shift in their perspective.
    • Growing Chinese Presence: China has been expanding its presence in Central Asia through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese investments in infrastructure projects, such as building pipelines, transmission lines, and other connectivity projects, have increased.
    • Common People’s Concerns: The common people in Central Asian countries have concerns about potential economic exploitation and loss of national assets. There have been demonstrations against China’s increasing influence, highlighting the need for careful consideration of the long-term implications of Chinese involvement.
    • Search for Diverse Partnerships: Central Asian countries are looking beyond Russia and China for partnerships. They aim to avoid becoming excessively dependent on a single power and seek relationships with multiple countries. India, Turkey, Iran, the United States, and Europe are among the nations interested in engaging with Central Asian countries and offering alternative opportunities for economic cooperation, security, and development.
    • Strengthening Relations with India: India has historical, cultural, and civilizational links with Central Asia. Prime Minister Modi’s visits to all five Central Asian countries in 2015 demonstrated India’s commitment to deepening ties.
    • Multi-Actor Engagement: Besides India, other countries such as Turkey, Iran, the United States, and Europe are also recognizing the opportunities in Central Asia. They are actively seeking to enhance their relations with the region, understanding the need for a multi-actor approach to regional engagement.

    India’s progress and expectations

    • Strengthening regional relations: India’s active participation in the SCO has strengthened ties with Central Asian countries and expanded cooperation in various sectors.
    • Counterterrorism and security cooperation: India’s engagement in the SCO highlights its commitment to combating terrorism and promoting regional security.
    • Economic cooperation and trade opportunities: India seeks to enhance economic ties with Central Asian nations through trade and investment improvements.
    • Regional connectivity and infrastructure development: India advocates for improved regional connectivity, including projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor and the Chabahar Port, to facilitate trade and economic cooperation.
    • Cultural and people-to-people exchanges: India focuses on fostering cultural and educational exchanges to deepen mutual understanding and strengthen ties between India and Central Asia.
    • Expanding influence: Active participation in the SCO allows India to expand its influence in the region and project itself as a reliable and responsible partner in international affairs.

    Challenges within the SCO framework

    • Divergent Interests: The SCO consists of member states with diverse geopolitical interests, historical disputes, and economic priorities. These divergences can sometimes make it difficult to achieve consensus and coordinated action on important issues.
    • Bilateral Disputes: Some SCO member states have ongoing bilateral disputes, such as the border disputes between India and China, and Pakistan and India. These disputes can create tensions within the organization and hinder collective decision-making.
    • Power Dynamics: The SCO includes major powers like China and Russia, which may wield more influence and have their own priorities within the organization. Balancing power dynamics and ensuring equitable representation among member states can be a challenge.
    • Security Concerns: The SCO’s primary focus is on regional security, counterterrorism, and combating extremism. However, member states may have varying security concerns, differing threat perceptions, and divergent approaches to addressing security challenges.
    • Economic Disparities: The SCO encompasses countries with varying levels of economic development and differing priorities for economic cooperation. Achieving comprehensive economic integration among member states can be challenging due to disparities in economic systems, infrastructure connectivity, and trade barriers.

    Way forward

    • Strengthening Trust and Confidence: Member states should work towards building trust and confidence among themselves through increased dialogue, transparency, and shared understanding of each other’s perspectives and concerns. Regular high-level exchanges, bilateral meetings, and people-to-people interactions can contribute to enhancing trust and cooperation.
    • Consensus-Building and Decision-Making: The SCO should prioritize consensus-building among member states on key issues. Ensuring that decision-making processes are inclusive, transparent, and representative will help in addressing divergent interests and maintaining unity within the organization.
    • Resolving Bilateral Disputes: Member states should make efforts to resolve their bilateral disputes through peaceful means and dialogue. Encouraging direct negotiations, promoting confidence-building measures, and seeking third-party mediation when necessary can contribute to reducing tensions and enhancing cooperation within the SCO.
    • Enhanced Economic Cooperation: The SCO should focus on deepening economic cooperation among member states. This can be achieved through the promotion of trade, investment, infrastructure connectivity, and technology sharing.
    • Regional Security Cooperation: Member states should collaborate closely to address common security challenges, including terrorism, extremism, and drug trafficking. Strengthening intelligence sharing, joint exercises, and capacity-building initiatives can enhance the effectiveness of the SCO in maintaining regional security and stability.
    • Engaging with External Partners: The SCO should engage with external partners, including observer states and dialogue partners, to explore areas of mutual interest and cooperation. This can help leverage external expertise, resources, and networks to support the organization’s objectives while ensuring that the SCO remains independent and maintains its autonomy.

    Conclusion

    • While the SCO meeting may not directly resolve border standoffs or ongoing wars, it serves as a platform to strengthen regional relations, address cross-border terrorism, and explore avenues for cooperation. By actively engaging with Central Asian countries and leveraging its strengths, India can enhance its influence and contribute to the region’s progress

  • Why is China limiting exports of raw materials?

    china

    Central Idea

    • China’s Ministry of Commerce recently announced export controls on gallium and germanium, citing national security interests.
    • The move has raised concerns due to the crucial role of these raw materials in semiconductor manufacturing and various other industries.

    Why read this?

    The restrictions imposed by China have prompted responses from other countries, highlighting the geopolitical backdrop of the ongoing ‘global chip war.’

     

    Curbs Imposed by China

    • Specific Licensing Requirement: Export operators must acquire a specific license to restrict the export of gallium and germanium.
    • Application Process: Operators need to provide details of importers, end-users, end use, and the original export contract. Exporting without permission will be deemed a violation, leading to administrative penalties and potential criminal charges.

    Significance and Concerns

    • Role of Gallium: Gallium is crucial for manufacturing semiconductor wafers, integrated circuits, mobile communications, satellite communications, LEDs, automotives, lighting, and sensor applications.
    • Role of Germanium: Germanium is used in fiber-optic cables, infrared imaging devices, optical devices, and solar cells due to its properties such as heat resistance and energy conversion efficiency.
    • Import Dependency: China dominates 80% of gallium production and 60% of germanium production, causing concerns for countries heavily reliant on imports, such as the European Commission and India.

    International Responses

    • United States: The U.S. opposes China’s export controls and plans to consult with partners and allies to address the issue. The focus is on diversifying supply chains and building resilience.
    • European Commission: Expresses concerns about the development, raising doubts regarding its security-related nature.
    • Geopolitical Backdrop: The US, Japan, and the Netherlands have implemented export control measures for national security reasons, targeting advanced computing chips and semiconductor manufacturing capabilities.

    China’s Perspective

    • Denial of Targeting Specific Countries: Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasizes that the export measures are not aimed at any particular country and highlights China’s commitment to secure and stable global supply chains.
    • Countermeasures: Some Chinese officials have suggested that the export controls are just the beginning, and China may escalate its countermeasures if restrictions intensify in the future.

    Impact on India

    • Short-Term Disruption: India may experience short-term disruptions in its industries due to the disruption of immediate supply chains and increased prices.
    • Long-Term Consequences: The long-term impact on India’s chip-making plans and industries will depend on factors such as alternative supply sources, domestic semiconductor production capabilities, and strategic partnerships like the India-U.S. Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET).
    • Opportunity for India: India can explore waste recovery from zinc and alumina production for gallium and germanium, consider alternative substitutes like indium and silicon, and focus on domestic semiconductor production.

    Conclusion

    • China’s export controls on gallium and germanium have raised concerns globally due to their critical role in various industries, particularly semiconductor manufacturing.
    • The responses from other countries reflect the geopolitical backdrop of the ongoing ‘chip war.’