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Subject: International Relations

  • From neutral to NATO: Why Finland joining the alliance matters

    Earlier reluctant, Finland is now hurtling to join NATO making a monumental shift for a nation with a long history of wartime neutrality and staying out of military alliances.

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Why was it founded?

    Ans. Communist sweep in Europe post-WWII and rise of Soviet dominance

    • After World War II in 1945, Western Europe was economically exhausted and militarily weak, and newly powerful communist parties had arisen in France and Italy.
    • By contrast, the Soviet Union had emerged from the war with its armies dominating all the states of central and Eastern Europe.
    • By 1948 communists under Moscow’s sponsorship had consolidated their control of the governments of those countries and suppressed all non-communist political activity.
    • What became known as the Iron Curtain, a term popularized by Winston Churchill, had descended over central and Eastern Europe.

    Ideology of NATO

    • NATO ensures that the security of its European member countries is inseparably linked to that of its North American member countries.
    • It commits the Allies to democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law, as well as to the peaceful resolution of disputes.
    • It also provides a unique forum for dialogue and cooperation across the Atlantic.

    What is Article 5?

    • Article 5 was a key part of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, or Washington Treaty, and was meant to offer a collective defence against a potential invasion of Western Europe.
    • It states: (NATO members) will assist the party or parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
    • However, since then, it has only been invoked once, soon after the 9/11 attack in the United States.

    Why Finland wishes to join now?

    • The country, so far, has stayed away from joining such alliances as it always wanted to maintain cordial relations with its neighbour Russia.
    • For a long time, the idea of not joining NATO or getting too close to the West was a matter of survival for the Finns.
    • However, the change in perception and overwhelming support to join NATO came about following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
    • NATO membership would strengthen the country’s security and defence system.

    Was this a long time coming?

    • For Finns, events in Ukraine bring a haunting sense of familiarity.
    • The Soviets had invaded Finland in late 1939 and despite the Finnish army putting up fierce resistance for more than three months, they ended up losing 10 per cent of their territory.
    • The country adopted to stay non-aligned during the cold war years.
    • However, insecurities started growing since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 as Finland brought back conscription and military spending went up.

    What about Sweden?

    • Sweden is likely to apply for membership after Finland’s final call.
    • If Finland joins, Sweden will be the only Nordic non-member of NATO.
    • Now, unlike Finland, whose policy stance was a matter of survival, Sweden has been opposed to joining the organisation for ideological reasons.

    What would a membership mean and will it benefit NATO as well?

    • NATO has shown eagerness about Finland and Sweden’s memberships.
    • Usually, becoming an official NATO member can take up to a year as it requires the approval of all existing member states.
    • Finland’s geographical location plays in its favour as once it becomes a member, the length of borders Russia shares with NATO would double.
    • This would also strengthen the alliance’s position in the Baltic Sea.

    How have Russia and other countries reacted?

    • Russia’s foreign ministry has said that they will be forced to take military steps if the membership materialises.
    • Russia has warned that this may prompt Moscow to deploy nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania.

     

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  • US to host ASEAN leaders

    US President Joe Biden will host leaders and top officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Washington DC.

    About ASEAN

    • ASEAN is a political and economic union of 10 member states in Southeast Asia.
    • It brings together ten Southeast Asian states – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – into one organisation.
    • It was established on 8th August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration by the founding fathers of the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines.
    • The preceding organisation was the Association of Southeast Asia (ASA) comprising of Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
    • Five other nations joined the ASEAN in subsequent years making the current membership to ten countries.

    Why in news?

    (A) Political purpose

    • ASEAN’s ‘Five Point Consensus’ to end the turmoil in Myanmar has not progressed since it was released in April last year.
    • In addition to discussing Myanmar, leaders are also expected to discuss Ukraine as well as regional issues.

    (B) Economic purpose

    • It is expected to discuss his administration’s economic plan for the region — the Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) — during this week’s summit.
    • The framework will structure cooperation across several pillars from infrastructure and supply chains to taxation.

    What is Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)?

    • The proposed IPEF is the Biden administration’s answer to questions about the United States’ economic commitment to the vital Indo-Pacific region.
    • IPEF will consist of four “pillars” of work:
    1. Fair and resilient trade (encompassing seven subtopics, including labor, environmental, and digital standards)
    2. Supply chain resilience
    3. Infrastructure, clean energy, and decarbonization
    4. Tax and anti-corruption

     

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  • Ukraine conflict won’t make the US abandon Indo-Pacific strategy

    Context

    When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

    The Challenge of balancing China and Russia

    • There are two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question.
    • 1] Engagement with allies: When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.
    • Biden came to power with a determination to make the Indo-Pacific the highest priority of his foreign policy.
    • He is not going to abandon that objective in dealing with the unexpected crisis in Europe.
    • The assumption that China was the principal challenge and Russia was less of a threat led Biden to meet Putin in June 2021 to offer prospects for a reasonable relationship with Russia in order to devote US energies to the China question.
    • But Putin’s calculations led him towards a deeper strategic partnership with China
    • But America’s assessment of the Russian and Chinese threats has not changed since the war began in Ukraine.
    • The idea that China will gain from the Russian war in Ukraine has also proven to be false.
    • Expectations that Russia’s triumph in Ukraine will be followed by a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan have begun to dissipate.
    • Meanwhile, China is reeling under self-inflicted problems, most notably Xi Jinping’s zero Covid strategy and his crackdown on the large internet companies.
    • The costly foreign policy of China: Beijing’s prospects look a lot less rosy than before as the Chinese economy slows down and XI’s foreign policy turns out to be quite costly for China.
    • The muscular approach of China: In Asia, China’s muscular approach to disputes with its neighbours has helped strengthen the US alliances, create new forums like the AUKUS, elevate old ones like the Quad to a higher level, and consolidate the strategic conception of the Indo-Pacific.
    • 2] Coordination with allies and partners: Biden’s lemma to the theorem on a two-front strategy is a simple one — that Washington will address the simultaneous challenge in Europe and Asia not by acting alone but in coordination with allies and partners. 
    • The idea was rooted in the recognition that alliances and partnerships are America’s greatest strength and most important advantage over Russia and China.

    Engagement with Asia

    • ASEAN: This week’s summit level engagement with the ASEAN comes after sustained high-level US outreach to the region since the Biden Administration took charge.
    • In northeast Asia, the election of Yoon Suk-yeol as the president of South Korea has tilted the scales slightly towards the US in the continuing battle for influence between Beijing and Washington.
    • The US is also actively trying to reduce the differences between its two treaty allies in the region — South Korea and Japan.
    • Asia’s new coalitions are a response to Xi Jinping’s unilateralism and his quest for regional hegemony.
    • India’s enthusiasm for the Quad can be directly correlated to Xi’s military coercion on the disputed frontiers with India.

    Implications for India

    • The two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question have worked well for India.
    • Tolerance toward India-Russia engagement: For one, the US’s emphasis on the long-term challenge from China has meant that Washington is willing to tolerate India’s engagement with Russia.
    • Time for the diversification of defence ties: This gives India time to diversify its defence ties that have been heavily dependent on Russia.
    • The US emphasis on partnerships rather than unilateralism in dealing with the China challenge means India’s agency in the region can only grow.
    • The Quad allows Delhi to carve out a larger role for itself in Asia and the Indo-Pacific in collaboration with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    Contrary to the initial assumptions that America is on the retreat and the West is in disarray, it is Moscow and Beijing that are on the defensive as the war in Ukraine completes three months.

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  • The importance of emigrants

    Context

    Though the phenomenon of Indian-origin executives becoming CEOs of top U.S. companies highlights the contribution of Indian talent to the U.S. economy, the role played by Indian semi-skilled migrant labour in the global economy is no less illustrious.

    Destinations of Indian migrants

    • Every year, about 2.5 million workers from India move to different parts of the world on employment visas
    • According to the Ministry of External Affairs, there are over 13.4 million Non-Resident Indians worldwide.
    • Significance of GCC: Of them, 64% live in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the highest being in the United Arab Emirates, followed by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
    • Low and semi-skilled: Almost 90% of the Indian migrants who live in GCC countries are low- and semi-skilled workers, as per International Labour Organization estimates.
    • Other significant countries of destination for overseas Indians are the U.S., the U.K., Australia, and Canada.

    Contribution of Indian migrant workers

    • Besides being involved in nation-building of their destination countries, Indian migrant workers also contribute to the homeland’s socioeconomic development, through remittances.
    • Highest remittances: As per a World Bank Group report (2021), annual remittances transferred to India are estimated to be $87 billion, which is the highest in the world, followed by China ($53 billion), Mexico ($53 billion), the Philippines ($36 billion) and Egypt ($33 billion).
    •  Remittances in India have been substantially higher than even Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the flow of remittances is much less fluctuating than that of FDI.
    • Still, remittances’ contribution of 3% in GDP is lower than that of countries such as Nepal (24.8%), Pakistan (12.6%), Sri Lanka (8.3%) and Bangladesh (6.5%), as per a World Bank report.
    • Hedging strategy against risk: Besides being a win-win situation for both the destination and source country, labour migration is good hedging strategy against unsystematic risks for any economy.

    Way forward

    • Human capital should also be invested in a diversified portfolio akin to financial capital.
    • Promoting labour mobility: For many countries, remittances have been of vital support to the domestic economy after a shock.
    • India should aim to increase remittances to say 10% of GDP.
    • The Philippines’ model of promoting labour mobility be replicated in India.
    • Reducing the costs involved: Both the cost of recruitment of such workers and the cost of sending remittances back to India should come down.
    • Skilling: The number of migrant workers need not go up for remittances to increase if the skill sets of workers are improved.
    • Regulation of recruitment agencies: Recruitment agencies should also be regulated by leveraging information technology for ensuring protection of migrant workers leaving India.
    • An integrated grievance redressal portal, ‘Madad’, was launched by the government in 2015.
    • Proposed Emigration Bill 2021: The Indian government proposed a new Emigration Bill in 2021 which aims to integrate emigration management and streamline the welfare of emigrant workers.
    • It proposes to modify the system of Emigration Check Required (ECR) category of workers applying for migration to 18 notified countries.
    • The Bill makes it mandatory for all categories of workers to register before departure to any country in the world to ensure better protection for them, support and safeguard in case of vulnerabilities.
    • The proposed Emigration Management Authority will be the overarching authority to provide policy guidance.
    • Besides workers, as about 0.5 million students also migrate for education from India every year, the Bill also covers such students.

    Conclusion

    For India to increase remittances’ contribution to GDP, it doesn’t need more workers but skilling and better management.

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  • The challenge for Middle Powers like India, France and Germany

    Context

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to European capitals should help both sides acquire a better understanding of each other’s security concerns. Whether it will fundamentally alter equations remains to be seen.

    New India-EU equation

    • As “Middle Powers”, countries like France, Germany and India should seek policy space for themselves and not be forced into taking positions by the Big Powers — the United States, China and Russia.
    • The EU is understandably concerned about Russian aggressiveness in Europe.
    •  ndia is equally concerned about Chinese aggressiveness in Asia. 
    • Even after Russia has sought to tear down the post-Cold War security structure in Europe, India has stayed the course in its equations both with Russia and the European Union.

    Division of national and group agenda and its implications for India

    • While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the context in which Modi visited Europe and the head of the European Union visited India, the fact is that the agenda at bilateral meetings with individual European countries has generally been very different from the agenda that the EU prefers to focus on.
    • While individual European nations, especially Germany and France, focus on their own strategic and business interests, including defence equipment sales, the EU retains the remit for negotiating trade and investment rules.
    • Problem for India: This division of national and group agendas has often posed a problem for India because individual countries cannot offer bilateral market access in exchange for bilateral defence deals.
    • So the French will sell Rafale jets in the name of strategic partnership but they cannot offer a trade and investment deal that Brussels will not allow Paris to strike with India.
    • While the EU and G7 may now wish to derisk, if not decouple, from aggressively rising China, how much they would be able to do in this regard and what they would be willing to do to help a slowly rising India remains to be seen.

    Way forward

    • For India’s part, it is not clear at the moment how much and what it can unilaterally offer Europe beyond the promise of standing up to China or reducing dependence on Russia.
    • Challenge for the three middle powers lies in combine their “strength and stability” to ensure “peace and tranquillity” in their respective neighbourhoods.
    • If middle powers like Brazil, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Africa and others can work together they may well be able to impose some discipline on the three big powers — China, Russia and the US.

    Conclusion

    At a time when big powers lurking behind in seeking to stabilise and shape the global order middle powers need to act to balance the influence exerted by the big powers.

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  • India-Germany relations

    Context

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Berlin for the sixth Indo-German Inter-Governmental Consultations (IGC) is significant for its timing and substantial results.

    Strategic and economic importance of India-German ties

    • The timing of the IGC, which Germany chose not to delay, showed outreach to India and the Indo-Pacific.
    • Impact of pandemic on economy: The pandemic hit German economy and sanctions on Russia will further dent its prospects.
    • The country requires new markets for trade and investment.
    • India is an important partner in this regard due to its sustained economic growth and market size.
    • Ukraine crisis: The Ukraine crisis created an urgency to engage with India as part of Germany’s fledgling Indo-Pacific policy.

    Opportunities for India

    • As Germany does the reassessment of China’s role in world affairs it creates an opportunity for India.
    • The Bundestag will discuss the situation of Uyghurs in China’s Xinjiang on May 7.
    • Any departures from China will bring business engagement to India.
    • Germany and India do not have a traditional strategic partnership.
    • It is a green partnership based on trade, investment, technology, functional collaboration, skill development, and sustainability.
    • There are several initiatives like the Indo-German energy forum, environmental forum, partnership on urban mobility, skill development and science and technology.
    • The biggest gain from the IGC has been the Joint Declaration of Intent (JDI) establishing the Green and Sustainable Development Partnership.
    • This will raise the quality and quantum of the existing partnership between the two countries.
    • Germany is reaching out with new and additional financing of €10 billion to fund green projects in India under public, private and PPP models.
    • To support this, a ministerial segment is being introduced under the IGC.
    • The IGC is the only such format that India has with any country.
    • Another significant development is the JDI on Triangular Development Cooperation for projects in third countries.
    • This will provide avenues to work together in the Indo-Pacific, Africa and beyond.
    • The Indo-German Education Partnership, which the German Bundestag passed in 2016 as a New Passage to India, has borne fruit — from about 4,000 students in 2015, there are nearly 29,000 Indian students in Germany.
    • The Indo-German Science and Technology Centre has made valuable contributions.
    • Now, under the energy partnership, the Green Hydrogen Task Force will develop a Green Hydrogen Roadmap.
    • This will attempt to take R&D to the level of commercialisation.
    • The JDI on migration and mobility is an important step taken during this IGC.

    Conclusion

    A new period is reflecting new priorities in view of crises like the pandemic, the economic downturn and now, Ukraine. The German response to India as evidenced through the IGC has been promising. Both sides may justifiably call it a defining moment in the Indo-German partnership.

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  • How a trade deal with EU could shape up?

    After signing comprehensive economic and trade agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Australia, India has stepped up efforts to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU).

    What is a Free Trade Agreement (FTA)?

    • A FTA is a pact between two or more nations to reduce barriers to imports and exports among them.
    • Under a free trade policy, goods and services can be bought and sold across international borders with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange.
    • The concept of free trade is the opposite of trade protectionism or economic isolationism.
    • Countries often agree to FTAs if their economic structures are complementary, not competitive.

    India-EU Trade Ties

    • The EU is India’s third largest trading partner, accounting for 11.8% of India’s total trade in 2020-21, after the US (12.61%) and China (12.59%).
    • It is India’s second-largest export destination after the US.
    • India is the EU’s tenth largest trading partner, accounting for 1.8% of the EU’s total trade in goods in 2020.
    • The EU is also a major source of FDI in India. Between April 2000 and March 2021, FDI flows from the EU to India totalled $88.32 billion.

    How would the FTA help India?

    • It will help Indian exporters gain competitive advantage in the EU markets while helping domestic manufacturers get cheaper access to imports from the EU.
    • India’s major exports to the EU include mineral fuels, mechanical appliances, electrical and electronic machineries, organic chemicals, automobiles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, precious stones, and iron and steel products.
    • The untapped export potential for India in the seven major markets of the EU—Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, and Switzerland—is around $26.8 billion.

    Why is the FTA important for the EU?

    • After Brexit, the EU is trying to clinch trade deals to diversify supply chains and find profitable exporting destinations for European companies.
    • The EU is looking for a large market as intra-EU trade remains stagnant and trade with the UK shrinks because of new institutional trade barriers.
    • The FTA with India will also help the EU reduce trade ties with Russia.

    What are the key stumbling blocks?

    • A major point of contention has been the EU’s demand for  reduction in India’s tariff rate.
    • Earlier talks did not resolve issues involving trade in agriculture and services, digital trade, intellectual property rights, and commitments on sustainable development issues such as environmental, social, and labour rights.
    • Visa requirements and work permits for Indian workers to the EU have been a major bone of contention.
    • Restrictions on transfer of personal data from the EU to other countries is a barrier for trade in digital services.

    What is the likelihood of an agreement?

    • The two sides have set the ball rolling on the FTA.
    • The president of the European Commission recently agreed to establish a trade and technology council to deliberate on data protection regulations and strengthening digital trade between India and the EU.
    • PM Modi’s recent visit to three key EU member countries is expected to further reinvigorate the FTA talks.

    Also read

    [Burning Issue] India-EU Relations

     

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  • India-Denmark relations

    Context

    As Russia, isolated by unprecedented Western sanctions, deepens its alliance with China, Europe has begun to loom larger than ever before in India’s strategic calculus. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Berlin, Copenhagen, and Paris this week could give us a glimpse of India’s post-Russian strategic future in Europe.

    Engagement with collective Europe

    • In her visit to Delhi, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von Der Leyn, unveiled the new contours of the EU’s strategic partnership with India by launching the India-Europe Trade and Technology Council. 
    • This week, the focus is on India’s key bilateral partnerships with European majors — Germany and France — as well as a critical northern corner of Europe, the so-called Norden.
    • Having built up a significant engagement with Moscow over the decades, India and Germany are under pressure to disentangle from the Russian connection.
    • Modi and Scholz could also exchange notes on how their long-standing illusions about China came crashing down.
    • Macron’s return to power in France offers a good moment for Modi to imagine the next phase in bilateral relations.
    • For some time now it has been said that France is India’s “new Russia” — Delhi’s most important strategic partner.
    • In recent years, France has emerged as a strong defender of India’s interests in the United Nations Security Council and a regional ally in the vast Indo-Pacific theatre.
    • France has also been a major supplier of advanced arms to India.
    • But Delhi and Paris have been some distance away from demonstrating full possibilities of their defence partnership.
    • There is no doubt that Western Europe has moved from the margins to the centre of India’s foreign and security policies.
    • The crisis in Ukraine, which has shattered the regional order that emerged in 1991, intensifies the imperatives for deeper strategic cooperation between India and its European partners.

    India’s engagement with smaller European countries

    • In Copenhagen, the bilateral talks with Danish leadership are about Delhi finally finding time for the smaller European countries.
    • The Nordic summit hosted by Denmark underlines India’s discovery of the various sub-regions of Europe — from the Baltics to the Balkans and from Iberia to Mittleuropa.
    • The Nordic Five — Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden — have a population of barely 25 million but their GDP at $1.8 trillion is greater than that of Russia.
    • Two members of the Nordic five — Sweden and Finland — are now rushing to end their long-standing neutral status and join NATO.
    • The other three — Denmark, Iceland, and Norway — have been founding members of NATO, set up in 1949.
    • Listening to the Nordic leaders might help Delhi appreciate the deeply-held fears about Russia among Moscow’s smaller neighbours.
    • In Copenhagen, Modi would want to build on the unique bilateral green strategic partnership with Denmark.

    Germany and India’s engagement with Russia

    • Berlin is tied far more deeply to Russia than India.
    • Germany’s annual trade with Russia is about $60 billion while India’s is at $10 bn.
    • Germany relies heavily on Russian natural gas, while Russian arms dominate India’s weaponry.
    • Irrespective of their Russian preferences, Germany and India have no option but to live with circumstances over which they have no control.
    • Opportunity for India: Making India an attractive new destination for German capital, now under pressure to reduce its exposure to Russian and Chinese markets, should be the highest priority for PM Modi.
    • Germany is one of India’s oldest economic partners, but the full potential of the commercial relationship has never been realised.
    • If there ever was a moment to think big about the future of German trade and investment in India, it is now.

    Conclusion

    A new paradigm is beckoning India — strong commercial and security partnerships with Europe that stand on their own merit and bring the many synergies between them into active play.

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  • Bangladesh offers Chittagong Port to India

    In a major development in India-Bangladesh ties, India has now gained access to the crucial Chittagong Port after it was offered by Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina.

    About Chittagong Port

    • The Chittagong/Chattogram Port is the main seaport of Bangladesh.
    • It is located in the port city of Chittagong and on the banks of the Karnaphuli River,
    • The port handles eighty percent of Bangladesh’s export-import trade, and has been used by India, Nepal and Bhutan for transshipment.
    • According to Lloyd’s, it ranked as the 58th busiest container port in the world in 2019. The port is one of the oldest in the world.
    • Chittagong Port is now being developed and modernized with Chinese investment and help.
    • It was widely believed that China will retain the right to use this port according to its plans and needs.

    Significance of the port

    • The use of Chattogram port was made possible under an agreement that allows the use of Chattogram and Mongla ports as transhipment hubs.
    • The port is significance for north-eastern states for enhancing connectivity between the neighboring countries.
    • This will reduce the distance, time and cost of logistics for transporting goods.
    • Currently, the road route between West Bengal to the northeast covers a distance of over 1,200 km.

    Some of the benefits India hopes from this new and shorter route are:

    • An additional connectivity route that’s economical and environment-friendly
    • States like Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya to get access to a port for transportation of goods
    • Lend a fillip to multi-modal connectivity between India and Bangladesh
    • Ease stress on supply chains that have been disrupted by the pandemic
    • Important bridge for India to reach Southeast Asia, East Asia and beyond

    Benefits for Bangladesh

    • Fresh investment flow in the logistics sector
    • New trade routes are expected to generate employment and give a fillip to transport, finance and insurance.
    • Generate revenue by way of administrative and port-related fees
    • Lead to economic transformation of cities such as Cumilla, Tamabil and Akhaura as well.

    Conclusion

    • India has settled the four-decade-old land boundary issue and also showing positive attitude towards Teesta water sharing issue.
    • At this moment, it is normal that Bangladesh would show some liberality towards use of ports.

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  • Making the most of the diplomatic attention

    Context

    India has witnessed a flurry of diplomatic activity during the past week with a long line of ministers, senior military officers and diplomats from a number of countries visiting Delhi and engaging with their Indian counterparts.

    Highlights of this year’s Raisina Dialogue

    • The senior-most official and inaugural speaker was Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.
    • The European presence was prominent.
    • China and Russia were absent from among official delegates, which is a pity.
    • The European presence was prominent. China and Russia were absent from among official delegates.
    • The focus narrowed down to the Ukraine war and, more specifically, India’s posture on Russia’s increasingly brutal assault on the hapless people of Ukraine.
    • It fell to the external affairs minister to deflect the expectations of India on this score.

    What should be India’s approach toward West?

    • India will need the West more than it has in the recent past, whether in building up its deterrent capabilities or accelerating its own economic and technological transformation.
    • India’s Quad partners the US, Japan, Australia, its partners in Europe and several ASEAN countries, see India as an anchor that could help stabilise the international situation.
    • They have a stake in India emerging as an influential power and are willing to contribute to that end.
    • The temptation to indulge in criticising each other should be avoided.

    Why India should recalibrate its ties with Russia?

    • Assumptions about Russia-China ties: A key assumption in India’s Russia policy has been that as a great power, Moscow would be unlikely to accept a junior partnership with China.
    • It was also assumed that in the long run, Russian and Chinese interests would not be aligned and, therefore, India should maintain a close relationship with Moscow.
    • Even if the Ukraine war had not erupted, the February 4 Sino-Russian Joint Declaration should have led India to question the continuing validity of these assumptions.
    • There are valid legacy reasons for maintaining positive ties with Russia just as some European countries have had to do.
    • The reality is that India-Russia relations are not a continuation of the old Indo-Soviet ties.
    • That strategic partnership that helped India cope with the Cold War and the Chinese and Pakistani threats evaporated with the end of that war and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    • Moscow no longer saw Beijing as its main security challenge but for India, China became a bigger challenge.
    • Marginal economic and trade relations: India’s economic and trade relationship with Russia has become increasingly marginal.
    • Defence relationship diminishing progressively: Even the defence hardware relationship has diminished progressively as India has rightly tried to diversify its sources of supply.
    • The legacy in this respect, too, is of diminishing relevance.
    •  India may have its issues with the existing order but what is envisaged in the Joint Declaration is not the alternative which would enhance India’s interests.

    Way forward for India

    • Remain engaged with Russia and China: In a shifting geopolitical landscape, it is in India’s interest to remain engaged with Russia and China as two leading powers in the world.
    • Such engagement is important to gauge how these powers are themselves adjusting to the changing geopolitical equations across the world.
    • The US has shaken off the taint of its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan but its domestic politics is unpredictable and this calls for caution.
    • Europe will likely emerge as a more coherent and cohesive entity, anchored in German power, and playing a role more independent of the US than hitherto.
    • Deepen partnership with Europe: All the more reason why India must deepen its all-round partnership with Europe, build a shared vision of an altered geopolitical landscape and encourage Europe to play a greater role in the Indo-Pacific.

    Conclusion

    The attention being paid to India is substantive. A rare but perishable opportunity has presented itself to significantly advance India’s long-term prospects. It must be grasped with single-minded tenacity.

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