Yesterday, June 21 was the day of the summer solstice in the northern hemisphere.
What is Summer Solstice?
Solstice means “sun stands still” in Latin.
The longest day of 2021 for those living north of the Equator is June 21.
This day is characterized by a greater amount of energy received from the sun.
In technical terms, this day is referred to as the summer solstice, the longest day of the summer season.
It occurs when the sun is directly over the Tropic of Cancer, or more specifically right over 23.5-degree north latitude.
The Southern Hemisphere receives most sunlight on December 21, 22 or 23 when the northern hemisphere has its longest nights– or the winter solstice.
Why do we have summer solstice?
Since Earth rotates on its axis, the Northern Hemisphere gets more direct sunlight between March and September over the course of a day.
This also means people living in the Northern Hemisphere experience summer during this time.
The rest of the year, the Southern Hemisphere gets more sunlight.
During the solstice, the Earth’s axis — around which the planet spins, completing one turn each day — is tilted in a way that the North Pole is tipped towards the sun and the South Pole is away from it.
Answer this PYQ in the comment box:
Q.On 21st June, the Sun (CSP 2019):
(a) Does not set below the horizon at the Arctic Circle
(b) Does not set below the horizon at Antarctic Circle
(c) Shines vertically overhead at noon on the Equator
(d) Shines vertically overhead at the Tropic of Capricorn
Post your answers here.
Some interesting facts
During the June solstice compared to any other time of the year, the North Pole is tipped more directly toward the sun, and the south pole is tipped more directly away from the sun.
As a result, all locations north of the equator see days longer than 12 hours and all locations south see days shorter than 12 hours.
The sun’s path across the sky is curved—NOT a straight line on the summer solstice.
Based on Earth’s current orbit, the summer solstice date rotates between June 20, 21 and 22 and is not fixed since it depends on the physics of our solar system and not on human calendar.
A US Navy warship fired a warning flare to wave off an Iranian speedboat coming straight at it during a tense encounter in the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Why in news?
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Middle East marks the most sensitive transportation choke point for global oil supplies.
Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel, approximately 30 miles wide at the narrowest point, between the Omani Musandam Peninsula and Iran.
It connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
The Strait is deep and relatively free of maritime hazards.
Its depth is greatest near the Musandam Peninsula and tapers as you move north toward the Iranian shore.
Why is it important?
Oil tankers carrying crude from ports on the Persian Gulf must pass through the strait.
Around 21 million barrels of oil a day flowed through it in 2018, equivalent to roughly a third of global seaborne oil trade and about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
Communication is a critical element of monetary policy. Yet there seems to be a gap between what the MPC says and what the RBI does.
About MPC
The Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 (RBI Act) has been amended by the Finance Act, 2016, to provide for a statutory and institutionalised framework for a Monetary Policy Committee, for maintaining price stability, while keeping in mind the objective of growth.
Highest monetary policy-making body: By law, the Monetary Policy Committee is the highest monetary policy-making body in the land, tasked with deciding monetary policy changes at regular intervals.
Composition: The MPC will have six members – the RBI Governor (Chairperson), the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy, one official nominated by the RBI Board and the remaining three members would represent the Government of India.
The MPC will be chaired by the Governor.
Under the inflation targeting regime, the most important role in communication belongs to the MPC.
Communication with public
Monetary policy changes are communicated through formal statements, with the discussions underlying these decisions also being published, so that the public can understand why the MPC decided the way that they did.
Communication gap: Over the past few years, a communication gap seems to have opened up between what the MPC has been saying and what the RBI has been doing, thereby potentially eroding the credibility of the IT framework.
Influencing inflation expectations: Communication is an important part of the ability of the central bank to influence inflation expectations.
Following are the ways which indicate the communication gap between the RBI and the MPC, with several implications for the credibility of the MPC.
1] Separate statements
During the first few years of the inflation-targeting regime from 2016 to 2018, the process of communication worked quite well.
On the days of policy announcements, the governor and his deputies would participate in a press conference.
From 2019 onwards, however, things began to change.
Governor’s separate statement: The RBI began to release a separate governor’s statement on the day of the monetary policy meeting, presenting an inflation outlook and even explaining the decision taken by the MPC.
MPC statement: It has overlapped with the MPC statement; at times, it has seemed somewhat different.
For example, following the June 8 Monetary Policy Review the MPC highlighted inflation concerns, and voted in favour of raising the policy repo rate.
On the same day, a governor’s statement mentioned that the central bank will also remain focussed on the orderly completion of the government’s borrowing programme.
Confusion: The issuance of two such different statements can lead to confusion, especially as lowering inflation and lowering government bond yields are contradictory policy objectives.
Why is communication so crucial? To influence inflation expectations!
If the public believes the central bank is committed to keeping inflation under control, then it will act accordingly.
Firms will moderate their price increases, fearing that large price rises will make them uncompetitive.
Meanwhile, workers will accept moderate wage increases, while investors will accept low interest rates on their bond purchases.
With everyone acting in this way, it will be easier for the central bank to ensure that inflation indeed remains low.
Anchored inflation expectations: If inflation expectations are well anchored, then it becomes relatively easy for the central bank to ensure that inflation returns to the target level before too long.
2] Change in the Monetary Policy Corridor width during pandemic
Deciding the repo rate: The most important task of the MPC, enshrined in the RBI Act (Amended), 2016 that introduced IT, is to decide the repo rate, since this has long been the lynchpin of India’s monetary policy framework.
Ever since the early 2000s, policy had aimed to keep overnight money market rates in a corridor, with the lower bound established by the reverse repo rate and the upper bound by the repo rate.
Since the width of this corridor was fixed, once the repo rate was decided, the reverse repo rate was automatically determined, and market overnight rates adjusted accordingly.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, the RBI constantly adjusted the reverse repo rate even as the MPC kept the repo rate unchanged.
As a result, the fixed width of the corridor was lost, and the MPC lost any role in determining interest rates.
3] Introduction of policy instruments outside the remit of MPC
During pandemic, the RBI introduced a number of new policy instruments, again outside the remit of the MPC.
GSAP: It brought in the GSAP programme through which it pre-commited to buying a certain amount of dated government bonds in order to control their yields.
Variable reverse repo auctions: It then introduced variable reverse repo auctions, and more recently, replaced the reverse repo rate with the long-dormant standing deposit facility rate.
The rationale for this was not explained in the MPC statement.
All unconventional monetary policy announcements were kept outside the MPC statement.
This raised the questions about the role of the committee in deciding monetary policy actions at a crucial time like the pandemic.
4] Intervention in the foreign exchange market
The RBI has been intervening in the foreign exchange market to manage the rupee.
Forex interventions by definition influence the domestic monetary base and inflation.
Yet the MPC in its monetary policy statements does not discuss either the exchange rate dynamics or the forex interventions.
Just as it does not discuss the RBI’s interventions in the bond market to lower the yields.
Way forward
In its latest two statements, the MPC indicated that policy would now be focusing on bringing India’s inflation rate under control.
Clear policy framework: If the RBI is going to be successful in this endeavour, the first step must be to close the communication gap, by reintroducing a simple and clear policy framework and restoring the central role of the MPC.
Conclusion
The net result of all these actions is a potential loss of both clarity and credibility. The communication gap will need to be closed in order for the RBI to become successful in bringing inflation back to its 4 per cent target level.
The Corridor in the monetary policy of the RBI refers to the area between the reverse repo rate and the MSF rate.
Reverse repo rate will be the lowest of the policy rates whereas Marginal Standing Facility is something like an upper ceiling with a higher rate than the repo rate.
The MSF rate and reverse repo rate determine the corridor for the daily movement in the weighted average call money rate.
As per the monetary policy of the RBI, ideally, the call rate should travel within the corridor showing a comfortable liquidity situation in the financial system and economy.
What is GSAP?
The G-Sec Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) is basically an unconditional and a structured Open Market Operation (OMO), of a much larger scale and size.
G-SAP is an OMO with a ‘distinct character’.
The word ‘unconditional’ here connotes that RBI has committed upfront that it will buy G-Secs irrespective of the market sentiment.
The commonality between Sri Lanka and the southern parts of India remains a less-emphasised yet significant aspect of India-Sri Lanka relations.
Crisis in Sri Lanka and relief provided by India
The present economic crisis in Sri Lanka has pushed it closer to India for immediate relief.
India, as part of its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy, has extended support to the people of Sri Lanka in the form of aid (close to $3.5 billion) to help secure Sri Lanka’s food, health and energy security by supplying it essential items such as food, medicines, fuel and kerosene.
The latest in the series was the signing of an agreement on June 10 between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Export-Import Bank of India for a $55-million short term Line of Credit to facilitate the procurement of urea for paddy crop in the ongoing ‘Yala’ season.
On its part, Tamil Nadu decided to provide aid of ₹123 crore, comprising 40,000 tonnes of rice, 137 types of life-saving drugs and 500 tonnes of milk powder.
Sri Lanka-India sub-regional context
During his second term as Prime Minister, Mr. Wickremesinghe while delivering a lecture in Chennai, in August 2003, called for the development of the south India-Sri Lanka sub-region as a single market.
Such a market would provide more opportunities for the economic growth of both countries.
In 2016 he highlighted the fact that the five Indian southern States, with a total population of 250 million, had a combined gross state domestic product of nearly $450 billion; with the addition of Sri Lanka’s $80 billion GDP, the sub-region would have a $500 billion economy, having an aggregate population of around 270 million.
Challenges
Possibility of greater economic collaboration: Whether this bonhomie can lead to greater economic collaboration between Sri Lanka and south India, not necessarily Tamil Nadu alone, given the historical baggage, is anybody’s guess.
Baggage of history: Some sections of the Sinhalese still hold the view that India had been a threat to Sri Lanka and it can still be a threat to them.
The manner in which the Rajapaksa regime unilaterally scrapped in February 2021 a tripartite agreement signed in 2019 with India and Japan for the development of Colombo’s East Container Terminal was a reflection of the historical baggage.
This perception can be traced to history when Sri Lanka was invaded by rulers of south India who humbled the Sinhala kings.
In the aftermath of the 1983 anti-Tamil pogrom, the support provided by the Indian government to Tamil rebels only strengthened this perception.
Modest investment in Sri Lanka’s development: Despite India’s open willingness to take part in the development of Sri Lanka after the civil war, the scale of its involvement has been modest.
Incomplete projects due to lack of political will: After the cancellation of the tripartite agreement, India was later provided with projects such as the West Container Terminal, the Trincomalee oil tank farm and a couple of renewable projects, there were several proposals that envisaged India’s participation but did not see the light of day.
Another project, a collaboration between NTPC Limited and the Ceylon Electricity Board, was cancelled.
Other projects too such as the development of the Kankesanthurai harbour and the expansion of the Palaly airport in Jaffna, both envisaging Indian participation, would have become a reality had there been show of political will from the other side.
The project of building a sea bridge and tunnel, connecting Rameshwaram to Talaimannar, remains on paper.
Way forward
Infrastructure development: Even now, there is enormous scope for collaboration between the two countries in the area of infrastructure development.
Cross-border energy trade: The economic crisis has revived talk of linking Sri Lanka’s electricity grid with that of India.
If this project takes off, the first point of interconnectivity on the Indian side will most likely be in Tamil Nadu.
India has cross-border energy trade with Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar.
Facilitating people-to-people interaction: The apprehension in the minds of sections of the Sinhalese majority about India being a threat can be dispelled only by facilitating greater people-to-people interaction, including pilgrimages by monks and other sections of Sri Lankan society to places of Buddhist importance not only in north India but also in the south (Andhra Pradesh).
Conclusion
Much more will have to be done but the opportunity created by the current circumstances should be utilised to bring Indian and Sri Lankan societies closer — a prerequisite to achieving an economic union between Sri Lanka and the southern States of India.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will host a virtual summit of the leaders of the BRICS countries. PM Modi is expected to join.
Why in news?
China is keen for the grouping to explore expansion and include new developing country members.
Under the “BRICS Plus” format, the forthcoming summit is also expected to be attended by leaders of invited emerging countries.
What is BRICS?
BRICS is an acronym for the grouping of the world’s leading emerging economies, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
The BRICS Leaders’ Summit has convened annually. It does not exist in form of an organization, but it is an annual summit between the supreme leaders of five nations.
Its inception
On November 30, 2001, Jim O’Neill, a British economist who was then chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, coined the term ‘BRIC’ to describe the four emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
He made a case for BRIC on the basis of econometric analyses projecting that the four economies would individually and collectively occupy far greater economic space and become among the world’s largest economies in the next 50 years or so.
How it has formed?
The grouping was formalized during the first meeting of BRIC Foreign Ministers on the margins of the UNGA in New York in September 2006.
The first BRIC Summit took place in 2009 in the Russian Federation and focused on issues such as reform of the global financial architecture.
Who are the members?
South Africa was invited to join BRIC in December 2010, after which the group adopted the acronym BRICS. South Africa subsequently attended the Third BRICS Summit in Sanya, China, in March 2011.
The Chairmanship of the forum is rotated annually among the members, in accordance with the acronym B-R-I-C-S.
The importance of BRICS is self-evident: It represents 42% of the world’s population, 30% of the land area, 24% of global GDP and 16% of international trade.
The five BRICS countries are also members of G-20.
The BRICS outreach to Africa began at the last summit hosted by South Africa, in 2013. It has picked up momentum now but African leaders want more.
They need big loans from the New Development Bank (NDB) for their infrastructure projects.
China introduced the “BRICS Plus” format at the Xiamen summit last year by inviting a few countries from different regions.
South Africa emulated it, arranging the attendance of top-level representation of five nations of its choice: Argentina, Jamaica, Turkey, Indonesia and Egypt.
The precise role of “BRICS Plus” countries will take time to evolve but an immediate benefit is the immense opportunities it provides for networking among leaders.
In this article, we will examine India’s ties with Myanmar which has been in turmoil since February, 2021.
The military had seized control of the country in a coup and detained Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders of her Parliament.
Myanmar: A backgrounder
Myanmar, also known as Burma, is in South East Asia and neighbours Thailand, Laos, Bangladesh, China and India.
The biggest city is Yangon (Rangoon) but the capital is Nay Pyi Taw.
The main religion is Buddhism. There are many ethnic groups in the country, including Rohingya Muslims.
The country gained independence from Britain in 1948. It was ruled by the armed forces from 1962 until 2011, when a new government began ushering in a return to civilian rule.
Myanmar under Suu Kyi
Aung San Suu Kyi became world-famous in the 1990s for campaigning to restore democracy.
She spent nearly 15 years in detention between 1989 and 2010 after organising rallies calling for democratic reform and free elections.
She was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize while under house arrest in 1991.
In 2015, she led the NLD to victory in Myanmar’s first openly contested election in 25 years.
Myanmar in recent timeline:
(1) Crackdown on Rohingyas
Suu Kyi’s international reputation has suffered greatly as a result of Myanmar’s treatment of the Rohingya minority.
Myanmar considers them illegal immigrants and denies them citizenship. Over decades, many have fled the country to escape persecution.
Thousands of Rohingya were killed and more than 700,000 fled to Bangladesh following an army crackdown in 2017.
(2) Military Coup
The military is now backing in charge and has declared a year-long state of emergency.
It seized control following a general election which Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party won by a landslide.
The armed forces had backed the opposition, who were demanding a rerun of the vote, claiming widespread fraud.
The election commission said there was no evidence to support these claims.
Suu Kyi is thought to be under house arrest. Several charges have been filed against her, including breaching import and export laws and possession of unlawful communication devices.
How does the world see Myanmar today?
Many western liberal democracies have condemned the military takeover.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said it was a “serious blow to democratic reforms”.
US President Joe Biden has threatened to reinstate sanctions.
However, the issue has now faded from the geopolitical discourse.
Chinese pleasure over Myanmar Coup
China neither condemned nor expressed any concern. It just said that reconciliation is needed between the civilian set-up and Myanmar military or Tatmadaw.
China blocked a UN Security Council statement condemning the coup.
The country, which has previously opposed international intervention in Myanmar, urged all sides to “resolve differences”.
Its Xinhua news agency described the changes as a “cabinet reshuffle”.
Neighbours including Cambodia, Thailand and the Philippines, have said it is an “internal matter”.
An analysis: India-Myanmar Relations
India-Myanmar relations are rooted in shared historical, ethnic, cultural and religious ties.
As the land of Lord Buddha, India is a country of pilgrimage for the people of Myanmar.
The geographical proximity of the two countries has helped develop and sustain cordial relations and facilitated people-to- people contact.
Both share a long land border of over 1600 km (approx.) and a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal.
A large population of Indian origin (according to some estimates about 2.5 million) lives in Myanmar. India and Myanmar signed a Treaty of Friendship in 1951.
India’s interests
India needs a good working relationship with the Myanmar government for its diplomatic and strategic initiatives.
This is especially due to China’s nefarious designs in Myanmar, which wants to develop it as a geopolitical base against India.
Despite Myanmar being ruled by military junta over the years, India has developed close ties and shares a good relationship with Tatmadaw.
(a) Strategic relations
The geographically strategic location of Myanmar makes it a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Last year, despite facing shortage of its own, India handed over INS Sindhuvir, a submarine, to the Myanmar Navy.
Tatmadaw responded well to Indian overtures and even allowed India to conduct counter-interagency operations against Indian insurgents groups in Myanmar border areas.
Both nations seek to cooperate to counteract drug trafficking and insurgent groups operating in the border areas.
(b) Economic Relations
India and Myanmar are leading members of BIMSTEC, SAARC and the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, along with Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand, helping India develop its influence and ties amongst Southeast Asian nations.
Also, the Myanmar government recently hinted at delaying and cancelling BRI projects and developing some big ticket projects with India.
(c) Humanitarian Assistance
India responded promptly and effectively in rendering assistance after natural disaster in Myanmar such as the earthquake in Shan state (2010) Cyclone Mora (2017), and Komen (2015).
India offered to help in capacity building in disaster risk mitigation as well as strengthening Myanmar’s National Disaster Response Mechanism.
What defines China-Myanmar relations?
China has its own designs and wants to use Myanmar as another base in its ‘string of pearl’ strategy against India. Through the string of pearls approach, China intends to encircle India by developing military bases in India’s neighbouring countries and Myanmar has long been on China’s radar.
(a) Debt trap diplomacy
Burdening Myanmar under Chinese debt trap is the first step of the plan.
Under China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is funding and developing many big projects in Myanmar that can be used as military bases in future.
These infrastructure projects have put Myanmar in massive Chinese debt trap, and accounts for over 40 per cent of the current $10 billion national debt.
(b) Political interference
The second Chinese step was to control the political machinery.
Like in Nepal, where China maneuvered to install a pro-Beijing and anti-India group government, Myanmar is expected to witness the same thing with military coup.
Geostrategic experts say China instigated Nepal to start the border dispute with India.
(c) Trade dependence
With this second step done, the third step comes into play: making a country your economically held scapegoat.
When it comes to bilateral trade with India, it stood at just $1.5 billion dollars in 2019-20, nowhere near that of China. With China, the bilateral trade is worth $12 billion dollars.
But if we go by an official Chinese report quoting the Ministry of Commerce of China, export and import between China and Myanmar was worth $168 billion dollars in 2019.
That is huge for a small country like Myanmar.
Through the prism of Coup
(a) Impact on India
While the coup invited international condemnation, not much has changed for India as it has built ties with the Tatmadaw over the years.
The handing over late last year of INS Sindhuvir, a kilo-class submarine of the Indian Navy, to the Myanmar Navy, was the most recent sign of the deepening ties between New Delhi and the Tatmadaw.
India and China have been competing for influence in Myanmar.
If India hadn’t agreed to help Myanmar meet its naval requirements, it would have meant a greater Chinese presence in the Bay of Bengal.
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing (behind this coup) has made multiple visits to India over the last few years, most recently in 2019, when he met our PM.
(b) Impact on China
India was the largest supplier of weapons and other military equipment to Myanmar in 2019, the last year for which records are available in the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database.
Tatmadaw exported military hardware worth $100 million from India that year while it spent only $47 million on Chinese military equipment the same year.
This is significant because China has been the largest supplier of weapons to the Southeast Asian country over the decades.
The General has also been critical of China, accusing Beijing of providing support to certain insurgent groups in the country, including the Arakan Army in Rakhine state, which the Tatmadaw has been fighting.
Many rebel groups in Myanmar have been using Chinese-made weapons against the military. This, experts say, rules out a tight embrace of China in the near term.
Repercussions of the Coup
Diplomatic isolation: And with over 50 years of military rule and an isolated status in the world, it seems that most of the relations are held by China alone.
Sanctions and embargoes: If the US goes ahead with its threat of sanctions because of the coup, Myanmar will have to turn to Beijing as a shield.
New puppet of China: In a nutshell, Myanmar’s economy is largely dependent on China, and with a pro-Beijing government in place, Myanmar may well fall finally into Chinese debt trap by allowing China funded BRI projects.
Hostility in India’s neighbourhood: If that happens, Myanmar will be reducing to a mere economic scapegoat of its largest trading partner China, and a hostile neighbour for India’s geopolitical interests.
Deterrence in Indo-Pacific: This in turn will emerge as a deterrent in the global vision of Indo-Pacific.
It may be often tempting to describe India’s Myanmar policy as suffering from a dilemma between values and interest.
Wait….. India never acts blindfolded
India’s interest in Myanmar has always been guided strategically by the centrality of democracy to ensure deeper ties.
India has also learned to accept that “the liberal democratic paradigm will not automatically come about” in Myanmar, nor in any other part of India’s politically volatile neighbourhood.
So while Indian policymakers have always been clear about their democratic endgame in Myanmar, they also recognise that pragmatic adjustments are sometimes necessary to engage with the military, which remains the ultimate guarantor of internal stability and order.
Since Nehruvian times….
60 years ago, the Burmese armed forces, the Tatmadaw, first took over power to end a decade of democratic reforms in the 1950s.
The coup of March 1962 was a severe setback for India’s investment in a federal, democratic Burma under the leadership of Nehru’s great friend U Nu.
However, with the democratic regime in deep crisis, it made sense to engage General Ne Win to protect Indian interests, including cross-border insurgencies, China’s influence and the safety of the larger Indian diaspora.
Despite his personal distress at the imprisonment of his friend and the end of democracy, Nehru gave the green light for India to become one of the first countries to recognise the military regime, even before China.
For the time being, India will push for democracy in public domain but in private it will pivot to engage with Myanmar’s new military regime.
The road to democracy in Myanmar lies through its military
Sixty years later, the situation is strikingly similar.
This marks a return to India’s dual policy of the 2000s, when it built a relationship of high-level trust with the Myanmar military while also nudging and supporting the Generals to embrace democratic reforms.
This approach was first crafted in the late 1990s by Shyam Saran, then India’s ambassador in Yangon, and executed in 2000 with a rare display of successful defence diplomacy led by Army chief VP Malik.
This was no easy task. Western analysts criticised India for blindly engaging Myanmar.
At the UN India came under attack for not supporting sanctions and condemnatory resolutions, especially during the failed 2007 democratic uprising.
Despite such pressure, India stood firm and also paid a price for it. PM Manmohan Singh, for example, declined two invitations and only visited Myanmar in 2012, after the democratic opening.
Way forward
The carefully calibrated policy of the 2000s will serve India well today, where circumstances are even more favourable.
Thanks to the rise of China, the US and the EU are now more wary of isolating Myanmar.
And the Tatmadaw is now also less enamored of China and keen to deepen relations with India.
But New Delhi will still have to work hard to pursue its democratic realist policy in Myanmar.
For India to play a role
(a) Domestically
The first challenge will be to preserve trust with the Generals even while keeping up the pressure to restore a democratic order.
Delhi will have to keep the relationship going at the highest level to ensure that the Generals respect India’s core concerns.
This includes the Naga peace process, keeping an eye on China’s activities, and cross-border connectivity initiatives.
(b) Internationally
The second challenge will be for India to coordinate its position internationally and buy itself manoeuvering space to engage Myanmar.
The US and the EU are still likely to be less understanding of India’s position than the Association of South-East Asian Nations and Japan.
Especially at the UN Security Council, India could play an important role to bridge differences and develop a common platform to nudge Myanmar back on to the democratic track.
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The government has assured the creation of one million jobs over the next one-and-a-half years. This may be optimistic, but if it does materialise, the employment landscape will change dramatically.
Background
What is the unemployment rate? Expressed in percentage, the unemployment rate is defined as the share of people who are without any job.
Joblessness in the country essentially relates to educated young adults seeking jobs in the formal economy.
The government recently announced it would recruit 10 lakh people in “mission mode” over the next one-and-a-half years.
The announcement came at a time when the unemployment rate for youth (aged 15-29 years) in urban areas has been hovering at over 20 per cent for the last several quarters.
What is the employment situation in India today?
If jobs are being created on a progressive basis, there will be an increase in income generation, which in turn, should spur consumption.
Therefore, if consumption picks up – this can be indicated by the growth in the consumer goods segments — then one can be confident of jobs being created.
What is the situation in India? Consumer durable goods have been registering negative or slightly positive growth for the last five years or so — this is a reflection of the purchasing power of the people that ultimately can be linked to job creation.
There have been talks of start-up economy in the country and their achievements.
Interestingly, it is a well-known fact that, globally, 80-85 per cent of start-ups fold up in the first couple of years mainly due to non-viable models that fail the scaling-up challenge.
Therefore, while start-ups sound exciting, job creation at scale cannot be part of these experiments, unless there is an assured flow of funds.
Challenge in recruiting 10 lakh people
It will be a really big task given that presently the central government offices house around 3.45 million personnel as per the budget for 2022-23.
Short time frame: The first challenge is in recruiting such a large number in this short period of time considering that there are fairly lengthy processes involved in hiring people to government departments.
Finding meaningful role: Hiring such a number is good for the country, but finding meaningful roles for them in various departments needs to be seriously examined.
Quite clearly, plans need to be in place to provide work to this set of new employees.
Increase in cost for the government: The third issue that would have to be kept in mind is the increase in cost for the government.
As per the budget for 2022-23, the average outgo per employee was around Rs 12.20 lakh.
Assuming the new set earns half of the existing average, the additional cost would be at least Rs 60,000 crore.
The salary outlay for the year was Rs 4.22 lakh crore.
These provisions would have to be made in subsequent budgets.
Conclusion
The overall unemployment picture looks complex today. While the government’s intent to add over a million jobs in the next 18 months is laudable, the task is audacious and challenging from both an administrative and financial point of view.
The government recently announced that 10 lakh government jobs will be provided over the next 18 months on a “mission mode”.
Background
The government recently announced it would recruit 10 lakh people in “mission mode” over the next one-and-a-half years.
The announcement came at a time when the unemployment rate for youth (aged 15-29 years) in urban areas has been hovering at over 20 per cent for the last several quarters.
According to the Quarterly Bulletin of Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), the youth unemployment rate, according to current weekly status, stood at 20.8 per cent in urban areas during October-December 2021.
The annual PLFS report too shows that the overall youth unemployment rate, according to usual status (ps+ss), was at 12.9 per cent — 18.5 per cent in urban areas and 10.7 per cent in rural areas — during July-June 2020-21.
Three takeaways from the announcement
One, the creation of employment is indeed a problem and can no longer be hidden from the public discourse.
Two, the private sector, especially modern sectors such as the service and manufacturing sectors, which are dominated by multinational companies, have not created many jobs.
Even if the Information Technology sector or the modern gig economy have created jobs, these are either very high-skilled jobs or low-skilled ones.
Three, the government in the Nehruvian scheme of development occupied an important place in the labour market.
The government is now forced to step in as persistently rising inflation, unemployment and underemployment threaten to politically affect it.
Employment data and issues with it
Government is at present relying on the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation/National Pension System/Employees’ State Insurance Scheme registrations and exits as indicators of the formal labour market.
This could be misleading as companies may be increasing registrations to cross the threshold to become eligible to fall under any of these.
Formalisation: Hence, this might be more a case of formalisation rather than employment generation.
Second, media reports show that more than 85% of those aspiring for those 10 lakh jobs could be consumed by existing vacancies in Central government departments (8,72,243).
The decline in PSU jobs: Third, 241 central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) have been shedding jobs in recent years.
The decline in quality of jobs: Even though the labour force and workforce participation rates have increased marginally, there is a decline in the quality of jobs, viz. there is a rise in the unpaid segment of the self-employed and a rise in the share of the agricultural sector in total employment over the last three Periodic Labour Force Surveys (43% to 47%).
Role of the private sector
The private sector creates jobs in response to market forces and while taking into consideration radically altering technological developments.
We cannot avoid placing the government at the centre of employment creation beyond a certain point.
Projects in the modern private sector consume a lot of capital to generate very few jobs.
For instance, recently, there was a report that the Adani Group has invested ₹70,000 crore (or ₹700 million) in Uttar Pradesh to create merely 30,000 jobs.
Foreign Direct Investment, which at any rate is highly capital-intensive, goes mostly into the non-manufacturing sectors.
Way forward
The government’s role in employment generation has entered into popular discourse and discussions on policy formation.
The government should play a significant role soon.
Government as principal employment generator: The government should re-establish its role as the principal employment generator through jobs in its ministries and CPSEs and through assured employment generation programmes like MGNREGA.
Conclusion
Employment is not merely about numbers and growth figures. We need to concentrate on enabling the creation of decent work and a sustainable labour market to which India is committed as a member of the United Nations and the International Labour Organization.
Civilsdaily Hall Of Fame: UPSC-CSE 2021 Top Rankers
Hi Guys, You mustn’t wait for the opportunity, you should create it.
After making gruesome achievements in UPSC 2021 on the internet, Civilsdaily now started an offline foundation batch to make the next success story in UPSC history. Yes, this is the all-dimensional extension of CD. Whether it is online or offline, It’s a distinction without a difference.
Acknowledging the need to ensure removing difficulties, the OFFLINE students face, some more seats in our classroom have been offered as per students’ request. So, if you wish to get your name on the 2023 merit list, you have a final call of admission to the much-coveted ‘UPSC-CSE Foundation Program-2023 Offline Classroom Batch led by Serving bureaucrats, toppers & toppers’ mentors.
CD’s Offline Classroom where Toppers used to enter
With the focus on overall development, Civilsdaily’s dedicated offline mentor teachers group stands by all UPSC aspirants without a second thought.
WHAT 2021 TOPPERS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT CIVILSDAILY?
Mukesh Kumar after his success, with his guru and mentor
The Hindu has solemnly acknowledged Civilsdaily’s high rated mentorship program.
EMI Facility Available@ No Extra Cost!
No Cost EMI Facility for Students enrolling in Civilsdaily’s Foundation Course 2023. This is ensure that financial burden has not remain a concern for your preparation.
Please note that there will be no processing fee involved and no hidden costs when you avail the EMI facility.
Civilsdaily’s Mentorship is clearly one brand which sets us apart from any other institute in this Domain.
Civilsdaily mentorship helps you in 6 key components of your preparation-
Direction– Civilsdaily’s mentors are highly qualified, with at least one year of mentorship experience and two UPSC CSE Interviews under their belts. They are well-versed in themany stages of preparation. These mentors will assist you in developing both a comprehensive and micro schedule. They’ll put together a weekly programme for you, complete with mentorship calls. This schedule will be created based on a thorough examination of the importance of subjects as well as the interconnection of topics to make it easier for students to grasp the material.
Discipline– The student will be held accountable to the mentor since he or she will be required to complete a weekly target set by the mentor.
Consistency– Students can retain consistency in their preparation by having their mentor monitor them constantly and giving them regular tests. Furthermore, rational scheduling aids pupils in adopting an integrated approach to preparation..
Value addition– Mentors also assist students with their questions and resources. Students become perplexed as to which resources to follow due to the abundance of content available on the market. Mentors can assist you in locating and referring to the most appropriate materials. This aids students in consolidating their resources and avoiding content overload. Mentors will also offer video assistance.Remember- the mantra to clear UPSC is MINIMUM RESOURCES, MAXIMUM REVISIONS.
Evaluation– The UAP/foundation curriculum also contains a prelims and mains testseries, as well as weekly 10 mains questions from Samachar Manthan (SM). Your mentor will go through each test with you and help you figure out your strengths and shortcomings. So, if you devote yourself to this programme, you will receive one-on-one assistance for more than 40 mains tests (including SM) and more than 30 prelims tests. Furthermore, each test will be examined twice by professional evaluators, with a mentor evaluating the results later.
Motivation– When you’re feeling down or don’t feel like studying, you can reach out to your mentor, have a conversation, get motivated, and restart your studies. Mentor-recommended relaxation techniques can assist you in learning more effectively.
Key Features about UPSC-CSE Foundation Program 2023 Offline Classroom Batch
Integrated Prelims, Mains and Essay Test Series along with Current Affairs and Personalized Mentorship.
UAP & Master Classes: Full coverage for GS prelims & mains.
Differentiators- Mentorship
Watch the lectures unlimited times
Combination of offline learning and in depth mentoring which gives students proper guidance throughout the preparation journey.
Pre cum mains offline foundation program contains every General Studies subject. Syllabus Wise each and every point will be covered in Prelims as well as in mains.
Post classes support of individual mentor
Notes and study materials: all necessary materials of static and current will be provided through hard copies.
A look at the programs in Our Foundation course
PRELIMS TS
40 PRELIMS MOCK TESTS (36 PAPER 1, 4 CSAT)
DEDICATED MONTHLY CA TEST
ALL INDIA RANKINGS
DETAILED EXPLANATIONS
MONTHLY CA MAGAZINES (NEWS, OP-ED, PIB, GOVT.REPORTS)
SAMACHAR MANTHAN
WEEKLY NEWS ANALYSIS (VIDEO + NOTES)
MAINS LEVEL Q&A EVALUATION TO COMPLIMENT THE LECTURES
CHECKED COPY DISCUSSION ON PHONE/ IN-PERSON
MAINS TS
12 SECTIONAL + 12 FLTS
MODEL ANSWER SOLUTIONS
CHECKED COPY DISCUSSION ON PHONE/ IN-PERSON
ESSAY TS
14 TESTS (28 ESSAYS) ON 8 BROAD UPSC TRENDS SINCE 2010
Sajal Singh: Sajal sir is known to make Economics and IR as easy as a cakewalk. He scored one of the highest marks in GS in the 2017 UPSC exam. Under his guidance, more than 80 percent of Students qualified for UPSC interview 2020 in Smash mains Program.
Sudhanshu Mishra: Prior to benchmarking himself as Polity teacher at Civilsdaily, Sudhanshu Sir has served in the Defense Ministry for 10 years. He has a keen interest in regional and global geopolitics which do not only substantially reflect in his lectures but also had come in handy in several stages of his UPSC & PSCs exams.
He is also an MBA candidate Co’23 from IIM Kozhikode.
Sukanya Rana: Our Civilsdaily Mains Program Head Mrs. Sukanya Rana has been mentoring students across multiple stages from prelims to mains to interview. She is part of Smash Mains as Ethics Mentor ans helped Civilsdaily topper to achieve their dream. Interview in 2016.
Graduate from Miranda house in Geography and done MA from JNU in Geography. She is also a qualified Net JRF in Geography.
Other Senior Bureaucrats and toppers will also be joining for various lectures and guest session.
Shri V.P. Singh Sir, IRPS
Virendra Pratap Singh did is B.Tech from IIT Kharagpur in 2003. He joined the services with immense experience in the Private Sector working across domains in high profile companies like Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, and Tata Motors. He has consistently scored very high marks in interviews. His 2009 score of 213/300 was among the toppers.
Himanshu Arora
Himanshu sir has a wide experience in the field of both academics and policy-making. He has earlier taught Economics at both under-graduate and Post-Graduate level in Delhi University. Currently, he is working at the Prime Minister economic advisory council. He also writes columns regularly in prestigious newspapers like The Hindu, Indian Express and Millenium post.
SD Singh
Dr. S D Singh sir, Retd IFoS, 1988 Batch, Uttarakhand Cadre. He is currently employed with MoEF as a senior consultant. He has 33 years of experience in forestry, environment, wildlife and biodiversity conservation.
Join our inaugural session:
Date:Will be announced soon
Address: 1 LGF, Apsara Arcade, Pusa Rd Next to Gate No.7 Karol Bagh, Metro, North Extn Area, Rajinder Nagar, New Delhi, Delhi 110060
Finally, Teachers Open The Doors, But You Must Enter By Yourself. Now, both the ways lie before you. If you like learning in a traditional classroom way, we are waiting for you at Rajendra Nagar. And if you prefer learning by staying at your home, we appear on the internet anytime you fit. All the best.
According to the UPSC, the IAS subjects cover almost all of the courses that we studied in school under the heading of general studies. Those, as well as others, must be studied.
The UPSC IAS test syllabus may appear straightforward at first glance, but it necessitates extensive study and comprehension of each essential and optional subject and its components.
Only an informed individual can make educated decisions as a civil servant, hence the UPSC subjects in civil services are designed to judge you on your understanding of things around you. Most services within the Civil Services require dealing with people and policies, and IAS personnel are policymakers.
For Part 1, a candidate must read these 7 subjects basis on these topics:
Subjects
Topics
History
History of India
Indian National Movement
Indian and World Geography
Geography
Physical
Social
Economic Geography of India and the World
Indian Polity and Governance
Political Science / Civics
Constitution
Political System
Panchayati Raj
Public Policy
Rights Issues, etc.,
Economic and Social Development
Sustainable Development
Economics
Poverty
Inclusion
Demographics
General issues on Environmental Ecology
Environmental Science
Bio-diversity
Climate Change
Physics
General Science
Chemistry
Biology
Sociology
Social Sector initiatives, etc.,
Current events of national and international importance.
Ancient & Medieval History of India and Indian National Movement.
Indian and World Geography-Physical, Social, Economic Geography of India and the World.
Indian Polity and Governance-Constitution, Political System, Panchayati Raj, Public Policy, Rights Issues, etc. Economic and Social Development-Sustainable Development, Poverty, Inclusion, Demographics, Social Sector Initiatives, etc.
General issues on Environmental ecology, Bio-diversity, and Climate Change – that do not require subject specialization.
General Science & technology.
Paper-II-(200 marks) Duration: Two hours
Comprehension;
Interpersonal skills including communication skills;
Logical reasoning and analytical ability;
Decision-making and problem-solving;
General mental ability;
Basic numeracy (numbers and their relations, orders of magnitude, etc.) (Class X level), Data interpretation (charts, graphs, tables, data sufficiency, etc. — Class X level);
Note-1: Paper-II of the Civil Services (Preliminary) Examination will be a qualifying paper with minimum qualifying marks fixed at 33%.
Note-2: The questions will be of multiple-choice, objective type.
Part B—Subjects for Main Examination
Compulsory Papers
Optional Subjects (Choose Any One) Social ScienceScienceLanguages. Others.
The paper aims to test the candidates’ ability to read and understand serious discursive prose and to express ideas clearly and correctly, in the English and Indian languages concerned.
The pattern of questions would be broad as follows:
(i) Comprehension of given passages.
(ii) Precis Writing.
(iii) Usage and Vocabulary.
(iv) Short Essays.
Indian Languages:—
(i) Comprehension of given passages.
(ii) Precis Writing.
(iii) Usage and Vocabulary.
(iv) Short Essays.
(v) Translation from English to the Indian Language and vice-versa.
Note 1: The papers on Indian Languages and English will be of Matriculation or equivalent standard and will be qualifying only. The marks obtained in these papers will not be counted for ranking.
Note 2: The candidates will have to answer the English and Indian Languages papers in English and the respective Indian language (except where the translation is involved).
PAPER-I Essay: Candidates may be required to write essays on multiple topics. They will be expected to keep close to the subject of the essay to arrange their ideas in an orderly fashion and to write concisely.
PAPER-II- (General Studies-I): Indian Heritage and Culture, History, and Geography of the World and Society.
PAPER-III- (General Studies- II): Governance, Constitution, Polity, Social Justice and International relations.
PAPER-IV-(General Studies-III):Technology, Economic Development, Bio diversity, Environment, Security and Disaster Management
PAPER-V- (General Studies- IV): Ethics, Integrity, and Aptitude
PAPER-VI & PAPER VII (Optional Subject Papers I & II): Candidates have to choose an optional subject from amongst the List of Optional Subjects. He/She has to write 2 different papers on the same subject.
Subjects for Interview (Personality Test)
The UPSC Interview/personality test has no prescribed syllabus. The candidates will be interviewed by a Board of competent and unbiased members and will be questioned on matters of general interest and the candidate will be evaluated not only based on their intellectual qualities but also on social traits, interest in current affairs, mental alertness, critical power of adaptation, rational exposition, balance of judgment, variety and depth of interest, ability for social interconnection and leadership, logical and moral uprightness.
Some Important Facts:
If any crucial step has to be taken, it’s nothing but choosing the right Optional Subject for UPSC-CSE preparation. It should be kept in mind that a wrong pick not only costs you your rank but also leaves you in a sense of repentance for the rest of your life. So if any greater thought perception is imperative, it is how to select an Optional Subject prudently!
The Main Examination is intended to evaluate the overall intellectual traits and depth of understanding of candidates rather than merely the range of their information and memory.
The nature and standard of questions in the General Studies papers (Paper II to Paper V) will be such that a well-educated person will be able to answer them without any specialized study.
The questions will be such as to test a candidate’s general awareness of a variety of subjects, which will have relevance for a career in Civil Services.
The questions are likely to test the candidate’s basic understanding of all relevant issues, and ability to analyze, and take a view on conflicting socio-economic goals, objectives, and demands. The candidates must give relevant, meaningful, and succinct answers.
The scope of the syllabus for optional subject papers (Paper VI and Paper VII) for the examination is broad of the honors degree 1evel i.e. a level higher than the bachelor’s degree and lower than the master’s degree. In the case of Engineering, Medical Science, and law, the level corresponds to the bachelor’s degree.
Now, to succeed in UPSC-CSE, only knowing the syllabus is not enough. Understanding twists & overlapping areas are a crucial aspect of preparation. To tell the truth, if anyone can be your true torchbearer throughout your IAS journey, he is your mentor. Never deprive yourself of his priceless guidance.
The desire to complete the course alone in its entirety is the major cause of most time mismanagement. Many applicants set out to cover the entire syllabus blindly only to discover later that many topics are simply too broad or that very few if any, questions are being asked from certain sections. A lot of time is wasted in this effort because those topics are required to be addressed differently, and the time saved on their coverage could have been better spent on other parts of the syllabus.
HOW TO ATTEMPT ANSWERS IN DAILY ANSWER WRITING ENHANCEMENT(AWE)?
Daily 4 questions from General studies 1, 2, 3, and 4 will be provided to you.
A Mentor’s Comment will be available for all answers. This can be used as a guidance tool but we encourage you to write original answers.
You can write your answer on an A4 sheet and scan/click pictures of the same.
Upload the scanned answer in the comment section of the same question.
Along with the scanned answer, please share your Razor payment ID, so that paid members are given priority.
If you upload the answer on the same day like the answer of 11th February is uploaded on 11th February then your answer will be checked within 72 hours. Also, reviews will be in the order of submission- First come first serve basis
If you are writing answers late, for example, 11th February is uploaded on 13th February , then these answers will be evaluated as per the mentor’s schedule.
We encourage you to write answers on the same day. However, if you are uploading an answer late then tag the mentor like @Staff so that the mentor is notified about your answer.
*In case your answer is not reviewed, reply to your answer saying *NOT CHECKED*.
In the body, first mention the role of EI in perceiving emotions, using emotions, understanding emotions, and managing emotions. Next, link the emotional aspect of EI with communication and persuasion attempting to influence an outcome or followers using- authority, consistency and commitment, liking and reciprocity/reciprocation etc.
Complete the answer by stressing on the implications for leaders and employers in understanding the importance of interpersonal relationships in the organizational context.
In the body, mention the above normal inflation ailing the Indian economy.
In the body mention that India’s non-oil and non-food component constitute only 47% of CPI underlining the limits of monetary policy for Inflation targeting. In the next part, mention that India’s foreign exchange reserves are required for both internal balancing and external balancing, unlike OECD countries.
Conclude by mentioning that the different structure of Indian economy would require different approaches from the monetary authority in its inflation targeting.
In the intro, mention the launch of IPEF as US’s de facto foreign economic policy.
In the body, mention the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis and fear of the US’s reduced focus on the Indo-Pacific region. In the next part mention that the IPEF is a framework or a starting point for these Indo-Pacific countries to regulate trade and commerce across four key pillars. Also mention that the IPEF signifies the first multilateral attempt to boost supply chain resilience to ease global inflationary pressures and mitigate the effects of future disruptions. In the challenges mention the clash with the domestic policies, impact on the domestic companies etc.
The answer could be concluded by mentioning that IPEF represents the aspirations of the regions and could help transform it economically and help boost the security architecture of the region as well.
Explain the role played by SHGs in rural development in India such as financial inclusion, women empowerment, employment opportunities etc. Examples can be used.
Mention the steps taken by government to promote SHGs.
Priya Rani didn’t just cracked UPSC but literally blew away the patriachal stereotypes with her success. Hailing from Patna, Priya had to deal with rude obnoxious comments on her parents and grandparents just for the fact that they were educating a girl child.
Maybe, this is what fuelled the fire inside her to succeed and push herself to limits for her goals. In her second attempt, Priya secured AIR 284, in UPSC 2021.
Priya was a student of CivilsDaily’s mentorship program, mainly Smash Mains program, and was under the personal guidance of Sajal sir.
In a candid conversation with us, Priya Rani shared her UPSC journey, hardships societal taboos, lessons learned, and her success mantra. Listen to her story.
Priya has given us inspiration and we wish her all the best. She’s going to be an administrator of great integrity!
The Election Commission has ordered the deletion of 111 registered unrecognized political parties that it found to be “non-existent” and referred three of the parties to the Department of Revenue for legal action for “serious financial impropriety”.
What is the news?
The Representation of the People Act, 1951 provides ECI to register and de-register the political parties.
This was the second such action in the recent past against registered parties that have been found violating the RP Act, 1951.
Registering a Political Party
The registration of all political parties is governed by the provisions of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.
According to the Election Commission (EC), any party seeking registration has to submit an application to the Commission within a period of 30 days.
This is done as per guidelines prescribed by the EC in exercise of the powers conferred by Article 324 of the Constitution and Section 29A of the RP Act, 1951.
Note: There is no procedure available for de-registration of dormant political parties.
Process of registration
The applicant is asked to publish a proposed party name in two national daily newspapers and two local daily newspapers, and provide two days for submitting objections, if any.
The notice for publication is also displayed on the website of the Election Commission.
Why registering with the EC is important?
It is not mandatory to register with the Election Commission.
However, registering as a political party with the EC has its advantage in terms of intending to avail itself of the provisions of the RP Act, 1951.
The candidates set up by a political party registered with the EC will get preference in the matter of allotment of free symbols vis-à-vis purely independent candidates.
More importantly, these registered political parties, over course of time, can get recognition as a ‘state party’ or a ‘national party’.
How EC recognizes a political party as a state or national party?
For recognition as a NATIONAL PARTY, the conditions specified are:
a 6% vote share in the last Assembly polls in each of any four states, as well as four seats in the last Lok Sabha polls; or
2% of all Lok Sabha seats in the last such election, with MPs elected from at least three states; or
recognition as a state party in at least four states.
For recognition as a STATE PARTY, any one of five conditions needs to be satisfied:
two seats plus a 6% vote share in the last Assembly election in that state; or
one seat plus a 6% vote share in the last Lok Sabha election from that state; or
3% of the total Assembly seats or 3 seats, whichever is more; or
one of every 25 Lok Sabha seats (or an equivalent fraction) from a state; or
an 8% state-wide vote share in either the last Lok Sabha or the last Assembly polls.
Benefits for recognized parties
This is subject to the fulfilment of the conditions prescribed by the Commission in the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968.
(a) Reserved Symbol
If a party is recognised as a ‘state party’, it is entitled for exclusive allotment of its reserved symbol to the candidates set up by it in the state in which it is so recognised. If a party is recognised as a ‘national party’ it is entitled for exclusive allotment of its reserved symbol to the candidates set up by it throughout India.
(b) Proposer for nomination
Recognised ‘state’ and ‘national’ parties need only one proposer for filing the nomination.
(c) Campaigning benefits
They are also entitled for two sets of electoral rolls free of cost and broadcast/telecast facilities over state-owned Akashvani/Doordarshan during the general elections.
A study by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has spoken about the possibility of capital outflows to the tune of $100 billion (around Rs 7,80,000 crore) from India in case of a major global risk scenario or a “black swan” event.
What is a ‘black swan’ event?
A black swan is a rare, unpredictable event that comes as a surprise and has a significant impact on society or the world.
These events are said to have three distinguishing characteristics –
they are extremely rare and outside the realm of regular expectations
they have a severe impact after they hit and
they seem probable in hindsight when plausible explanations appear
When did the term originate?
The black swan theory was put forward by author and investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2001, and later popularised in his 2007 book – The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.
It is described as one of the 12 most influential books since World War II.
In his book, Taleb does not try to lay out a method to predict such events, but instead stresses on building “robustness” in systems and strategies to deal with black swan occurrences and withstand their impact.
Behind the metaphorical name
The term itself is linked to the discovery of black swans.
Europeans believed all swans to be white until 1697, when a Dutch explorer spotted the first black swan in Australia.
The metaphor ‘black swan event’ is derived from this unprecedented spotting from the 17th century, and how it upended the West’s understanding of swans.
When have such events occurred in the past?
Interestingly, Taleb’s book predated the 2008 global financial crisis – a black swan event triggered by a sudden crash in the booming housing market in the US.
The fall of the Soviet Union, the terrorist attack in the US on September 11, 2001, also fall in the same category.
Is the Covid-19 pandemic a black swan event?
Taleb does not agree with those who believe it to be one.
Rather, he called it a “white swan”, arguing that it was predictable, and there was no excuse for companies and governments not to be prepared for something like this.
While the outbreak of any pandemic is difficult to individually predict, the possibility of one occurring and having a major impact on systems around the world was known and documented.
The Centre has banned the use of ‘single-use plastic’ from July 1.
What is the news?
The Ministry for Environment, Forest and Climate Change had issued a gazette notification last year announcing the ban, and has now defined a list of items that will be banned from next month.
The manufacture, import, stocking, distribution, sale and use of suc plastic, including polystyrene and expanded polystyrene, commodities shall be prohibited with effect from the 1st July, 2022.
What is Single-Use Plastic?
As the name suggests, it refers to plastic items that are used once and discarded.
Single-use plastic (SUP) has among the highest shares of plastic manufactured and used — from packaging of items, to bottles (shampoo, detergents, cosmetics), polythene bags, face masks, coffee cups, cling film, trash bags, food packaging etc.
It accounts for a third of all plastic produced globally, with 98% manufactured from fossil fuels.
SUP also accounts for the majority of plastic discarded – 130 million metric tonnes globally in 2019 all of which is burned, buried in landfills or discarded directly into the environment.
On the current trajectory of production, it has been projected that single-use plastic could account for 5-10% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
SUPs in India
India features in the top 100 countries of single-use plastic waste generation – at rank 94 (the top three being Singapore, Australia and Oman).
With domestic production of 11.8 million metric tonnes annually, and import of 2.9 MMT, India’s net generation of single-use plastic waste is 5.6 MMT, and per capita generation is 4 kg.
What are the items being banned?
According to the Plastic Waste Management Rules, 2016, there is also a complete ban on sachets using plastic material for storing, packing or selling gutkha, tobacco and pan masala.
The items on which the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) have announced a ban are earbuds; balloon sticks; candy and ice-cream sticks; cutlery items including plates, cups, glasses, forks, spoons, knives, PVC banners measuring under 100 microns among others.
The Ministry had already banned polythene bags under 75 microns in September 2021, expanding the limit from the earlier 50 microns.
From December, the ban will be extended to polythene bags under 120 microns.
The ban is being introduced in phases to give manufacturers time to shift to thicker polythene bags that are easier to recycle.
While manufacturers can use the same machine for 50- and 75-micron bags, the machinery will need to be upgraded for 120 microns.
Why these items?
The choice for the first set of SUPs items for the ban was based on difficulty of collection, and therefore recycling.
The enemy is not that plastic exists per se, but that plastic exists forever in the environment.
When plastic remains in the environment for long periods of time and does not decay, it turns into microplastics – first entering our food sources and then the human body, and this is extremely harmful.
These items are difficult to collect, especially since most are either small, or discarded directly into the environment – like ice-cream sticks.
It then becomes difficult to collect for recycling, unlike the much larger items.
The largest share of SUP is that of packaging – with as much as 95% of single use belong to this category – from toothpaste to shaving cream to frozen foods.
The items chosen are of low value and of low turnover and are unlikely to have a big economic impact, which could be a contributing reason.
How will the ban be enforced?
The ban will be monitored by the CPCB from the Centre, and by the State Pollution Control Boards (SPCBs) that will report to the Centre regularly.
Directions have been issued at national, state and local levels — for example, to all petrochemical industries — to not supply raw materials to industries engaged in the banned items.
Directions have also been issued to SPCBs and Pollution Control Committees to modify or revoke consent to operate issued under the Air/Water Act to industries engaged in SUP items.
Last week, the CPCB issued one-time certificates to 200 manufacturers of compostable plastic and the BIS passed standards for biodegradable plastic.
What if violation occurs?
Those found violating the ban can be penalised under the Environment Protection Act 1986 – which allows for imprisonment up to 5 years, or a penalty up to Rs 1 lakh, or both.
Violators can also be asked to pay Environmental Damage Compensation by the SPCB.
In addition, there are municipal laws on plastic waste, with their own penal codes.
How are other countries dealing with single-use plastic?
Bangladesh became the first country to ban thin plastic bags in 2002.
New Zealand became the latest country to ban plastic bags in July 2019.
China issued a ban on plastic bags in 2020 with phased implementation.
As of July 2019, 68 countries have plastic bag bans with varying degrees of enforcement.
Vanuatu and Seychelles have banned plastic straws outright.
