The sudden demise of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has sent shockwaves through the Islamic Republic, grappling with the implications for the country’s future leadership.
India is closely monitoring the unfolding of Iran’s succession plan, given the significant geopolitical and economic stakes involved.
India and Iran have recently signed a 10-year agreement to develop and operate a terminal at the strategic Chabahar Port, enhancing trade connections with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries.
BACK2BASICS: India-Iran Bilateral Relations:
Pre-Cold War Era: India and Iran span centuries of relationship which is marked by meaningful interactions. Both countries shared a border till 1947 with several common features in their language, culture, and traditions. They established their diplomatic ties in March 1950.
Cold War Era (1950-1990): India followed its Non-alignment policy, but paralleling strong links with the Soviet Union (USSR), while Iran was an open member of the Western Bloc and enjoyed close ties with the United States.
Therefore, the relations between India and Iran suffered due to their differing political interests.
Post Cold-War Era:
Iran’s continuously supported Pakistan in the India–Pakistan border conflicts. This was also a major reason that India had expressed strong opposition to Iran’s Nuclear program.
India’s close relations with Iraq during the Iran–Iraq War greatly strained bilateral ties.
Oil Trade: In 2019, due to the sanctions imposed by the US on Iran, India stopped importing crude oil from the country. Before 2019, India was the second biggest buyer of oil from Iran.
During recent times in 2021, both countries continued to collaborate in supporting the broad-based anti-Taliban government until the Taliban recaptured Afghanistan.
Other Trades:
India-Iran bilateral trade during the FY 2020-21 was USD 2.1 billion, a decrease of 56 % as compared to USD 4.8 billion during FY 2019-20.
Our Exports to Iran: rice, tea, sugar, fresh fruits, drugs/pharmaceuticals, man-made staple fibers, electrical machinery, artificial jewelry etc.
Our Imports from Iran: dry fruits, inorganic/organic chemicals, glass and glassware, natural or cultured pearls, precious or semiprecious stones, leather, gypsum, etc.
About Raisi’s Rise and Hardline Agenda:
Ebrahim Raisi, had politically risen through the ranks of Iran’s theocracy and was widely seen as a leading candidate to succeed.
His presidency was part of a broader consolidation of power by hardliners dedicated to shoring up the pillars of the Islamic Republic against dissent and external threats.
Raisi’s death poses significant challenges for the conservative hardliners who had backed him as a unifying figure loyal to the Supreme Leader.
Raisi’s demise opens the door for the ambitions of the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which has exploited its constitutionally mandated roles to expand its political and economic influence.
Raisi’s death introduces great uncertainty into the succession process, with various factions and figures vying for influence.
What are the potential implications of Iran’s succession plan for India?
Trade ties: The death of President Raisi could impact India-Iran trade relations, which reached $2.33 billion in 2023-24 under Raisi’s policies.
Regional stability: India has enjoyed good ties with Iran and has been involved in key projects like the development of the Chabahar port, which serves as India’s gateway to Central Asia.
The succession plan in Iran could affect regional stability and India’s relation to energy security and connectivity.
Foreign policy alignment: Changes in Iran’s stance towards regional conflicts and international agreements could influence India’s foreign policy decisions in the Middle East.
Security concerns: Instability or changes in Iran’s approach to regional conflicts or its relations with other countries could impact India’s security calculations.
Way Forward
India needs to prioritize economic projects like the Chabahar Port, which are crucial for regional trade and India’s strategic interests, ensuring long-term agreements and investments. Further, maintaining a delicate balance between US relations and Iran ties by leveraging diplomatic channels to navigate sanctions can help.
Mains PYQ:
Q In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to its situation? (UPSC IAS/2018)
Q The question of India’s Energy Security constitutes the most important part of India’s economic progress. Analyze India’s energy policy cooperation with West Asian Countries. (UPSC IAS/2017)
In 2023, India became the world’s most populous country, contrasting China’s declining birth rate. This prompts a comparison of their consumption patterns and geopolitical implications.
Consumer size of India and China
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE):
India’s PFCE as a percentage of GDP is significantly higher than China’s, with India spending over 58% of its GDP on consumption compared to China’s 38%.
Final consumption, including government expenditure, constitutes 68% of India’s GDP and 53% of China’s GDP.
Despite China’s larger economy, its PFCE is only about 3.5 times that of India’s, indicating a higher contribution of consumption to India’s GDP.
Expenditure by Categories:
India’s consumption expenditure is characterized by higher spending on food, clothing, footwear, and transport, typical of a developing market.
In contrast, China’s consumption basket represents a relatively developed market, with higher spending on housing, white goods, recreation, education, and healthcare.
India spends approximately half of what China spends on food, transport, and clothing and footwear, despite being a fifth of China’s economy.
Real growth rates of individual consumption categories in India often outperform nominal growth rates observed in China.
Conclusion: India’s higher PFCE as a percentage of GDP reflects a greater reliance on consumption-driven growth compared to China.The composition of consumption expenditure in India and China highlights differences in market maturity and consumer behavior.Despite China’s larger economy, India’s consumption expenditure is relatively significant, indicating the potential for continued growth and economic development.
Mains PYQ
Q The time has come for India and Japan to build a strong contemporary relationship, one involving global and strategic partnership that will have a great significance for Asia and the world as a whole. Comment. (UPSC IAS/2019)
PYQ Relevance: [2022] ‘India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka.’ Discuss India’s role in the recent crisis in Sri Lanka in light of the preceding statement. [2013] In respect of India — Sri Lanka relations, discuss how domestic factors influence foreign policy.
Note4Students:
Prelims: NA
Mains: Disruptions in Sri Lanka’s development trajectory post the Civil War
Mentor Comment: A decade and a half after Sri Lanka’s civil war, deep wounds persist, with tens of thousands dead and widespread destruction. Truth, accountability, and justice remain unresolved, and political polarisation hinders progress. Economic reconstruction lags, further stunted by crises. The Tamil middle class aspires to emigrate, while the working class remains destitute.
Let’s learn
___
Why in the News?
The future of the Tamil people relies on creating a renewed vision for themselves and the whole nation, founded on the ideals of equality and freedom.
Back2Basics: Sri Lankan Civil War It was a protracted armed conflict that lasted for nearly three decades, from 1983 to 2009, between the government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
LTTE was a separatist militant organisation seeking an independent Tamil state in the northern and eastern regions of the island nation. The conflict was characterised by violence, human rights abuses, and widespread displacement of civilians.
The LTTE, known for its guerrilla tactics and suicide bombings, controlled significant territory in the north and east of Sri Lanka and waged a violent insurgency against the government.
Key Hindrances to Sri Lanka’s Progress
Limited Progress: While infrastructure like trains, banks, supermarkets, and hotels returned to the north, rural areas continue to struggle with unstable livelihoods.
Setback from Terror Attack: The Easter bombings in April 2019, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and an ongoing economic crisis since 2022, have exacerbated economic hardships, marking the worst crisis since Independence.
Economic Crisis: Economic misery is pervasive, with outmigration and hunger becoming the norm, particularly impacting the deprived and landless in war-torn areas.
Challenges in Reconstruction Efforts
Economic Challenges
Failed Investments: Expectations of substantial investments from the Tamil diaspora have not materialised, failing to stimulate local economic revival.
International Donor Projects: Projects focused on infrastructure have not effectively revitalised the local economy, while NGO aid has sometimes led to dependency and microfinance debt traps.
Political Polarisation and Neglect
Political Neglect: Tamil political leadership has often prioritised international accountability over addressing local livelihoods, perpetuating dependency on diaspora remittances.
Parallel Nationalisms: Tamil nationalist politics mirrors Sinhala nationalism, focusing on rights and international intervention, rather than fostering local reconciliation.
Reconciliation Challenges: Efforts towards political reconciliation and power-sharing have faltered due to political expediency, exacerbating tensions and marginalising minorities.
Communal polarization: Relations between Tamil and Muslim communities remain strained, with unresolved issues from historical displacements and marginalization.
Future Prospects for Tamil People
V. Karalasingham’s Reflections (1963): Highlighted the paradox of Tamil leadership and the continued suffering and humiliation of Tamil-speaking people.
Aragalaya Movement (2022): Sri Lankans united to oust a President promoting Sinhala-Buddhist nationalism, showing potential for collective action.
Path to Change: Embracing inclusive politics, moving away from isolationist strategies, and advocating for economic and social justice can pave the way for a democratic future based on equality and freedom.
India’s Economic Assistance to Sri Lanka:
Bailout Package: During Sri Lanka’s economic crisis in 2022, India was quick to extend financial support, amounting to over USD 4 billion. This surpassed even the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) bailout package over 48 months.
Facilitating IMF Engagement: India’s role was instrumental in the early stages of Sri Lanka’s negotiations with the IMF. India’s Finance Minister, Mrs Sitharaman, played a significant part in these discussions, showcasing India’s commitment to its neighbour’s recovery.
Private Investment: The expansion of the Colombo port’s west container terminal in 2023 by India’s Adani Group was a key development project.
Cricket Diplomacy: Cricket surprisingly became a focal point, with international matches hosted in Sri Lanka, including a notable India-Pakistan game during the World Cup.
Way Forward
Political Reconciliation: Advocate for genuine political reconciliation, including devolution of power and addressing historical grievances.
Community Integration: Foster solidarity and mutual understanding between ethnic and religious communities to promote social integration.
Local Empowerment: Support local initiatives and reduce dependency on external aid, empowering communities to drive their development.
Unified Movements: Promote movements that unite diverse groups towards common goals of justice, equality, and inclusive governance.
SRI Lanka’s Cabinet has approved a new economic law to stabilize its debt-to-GDP ratio that will cover key targets set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The debt-to-GDP ratio measures the proportion of a country’s national debt to its gross domestic product.
According to the World Bank, the countries whose debt-to-GDP ratios exceed 77% for prolonged periods experience significant slowdowns in economic growth.
What are the IMF Targets?
The IMF has various targets and initiatives aimed at achieving sustainable economic growth and prosperity for its member countries.
It includes promoting financial stability, monetary cooperation, and transparency in economic policies to enhance productivity, job creation, and economic well-being.
Indian Scenario:
India has not taken any financial assistance from the IMF since 1993.
India’s current quota in the IMF is SDR (Special Drawing Rights) 5,821.5 million, making it the 13th largest quota-holding country at IMF and giving it shareholdings of 2.44%.
For Sri Lanka:
The IMF targets Sri Lanka to reduce its debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio to 95% by 2030.
Another target set by the IMF is to reduce debt servicing costs to 4.5% of GDP. It means Sri Lanka needs to focus on managing the costs associated with servicing it’s debt obligations, aiming to make it more sustainable and manageable in the long term.
How will the debt-to-GDP ratio be reduced?
Fiscal Discipline: Sri Lanka may need to implement measures to improve fiscal discipline, such as reducing government Expenditure, increasing Tax revenue, and narrowing Budget Deficits.
Debt Restructuring: Sri Lanka can explore negotiating with creditors to extend debt maturities, reduce interest rates, or reprofile debt payments.
Revenue Enhancement: The government could focus on enhancing revenue generation through tax reforms, improved tax administration, and efforts to broaden the tax base.
Economic Growth: Promoting economic growth is essential for reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio over the long term. Sri Lanka could implement policies to stimulate investment, boost productivity, and enhance competitiveness, leading to higher GDP growth rates and a more sustainable debt trajectory.
What does India do presently to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio?
Targeted Reduction: According to a research paper by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the government aims to lower the general government debt-GDP ratio to 73.4% by 2030-31. This target is approximately 5% points lower than the trajectory projected by the IMF, indicating ambitious yet achievable goals.
Promotes Fiscal Space: The Indian Central Bank – RBI emphasized reducing debt burdens to free up fiscal space for new investments, particularly in critical areas like the green transition. This suggests a strategic focus on investing in sustainable and environmentally friendly initiatives.
Aligning with IMF: The IMF projects a positive trend in India’s debt reduction efforts, forecasting a decline in government debt from 81% of GDP in 2022 to 80.5% in 2028. This indicates that India’s debt reduction measures are consistent with international expectations and standards.
Conclusion: Focus on enhancing revenue generation through Comprehensive Tax reforms, improved tax compliance, and efforts to broaden the tax base is needed. Secondly, rationalizing Tax revenues can provide additional resources to finance government expenditures without relying heavily on borrowing, thus reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio.
Mains PYQ:
Q The World Bank and the IMF, collectively known as the Bretton Woods Institutions, are the two inter-governmental pillars supporting the structure of the world’s economic and financial order. Superficially, the World Bank and the IMF exhibit many common characteristics, yet their role, functions and mandates are distinctly different. Elucidate. (UPSC IAS/2013)
PYQ Relevance: Mains: Q How far are India’s internal security challenges linked with border management particularly in view of the long porous borders with most countries of South Asia and Myanmar? (UPSC IAS/2013) Q Border management is a complex task due to difficult terrain and hostile relations with some countries. Elucidate the challenges and strategies for effective border management. (UPSC IAS/2016)
Prelims:
Consider the following statements: (UPSC IAS/2020) 1) The value of Indo-Sri Lanka trade has consistently increased in the last decade. 2) “Textile and textile articles” constitute an important item of trade between India and Bangladesh. 3) In the last five years, Nepal has been the largest trading partner of India in South Asia. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 2 only (c) 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3
Note4Students:
Prelims: Political Theories; Secularism
Mains: Society; Secularism;
Mentor comment: Despite frequent changes in government and the emergence of leaders perceived as anti-India or pro-China, India has maintained a non-partisan approach focused on supporting inclusive economic development, interdependence, communication links, and people-to-people contacts with Nepal. India’s deep historical, cultural, and economic ties with Nepal, as well as its ability to manage security concerns, have allowed it to navigate these challenges. There is the need for fresh thinking on a range of issues, including economic recovery, bilateral and regional cooperation, supply chain restructuring, energy cooperation, and development.
Let’s learn.
–
Why in the News?
Being a neighboring country of both – India and China, Nepal grapples with restlessness and uncertainty amid political and economic challenges.
Questions arise on its rushed transition to democracy, identity, and governance amidst regional geopolitics.
About India-Nepal Bilateral Relations:
Strategic Relations: Geopolitical Dynamics: India is actively countering China’s influence in Nepal through economic diplomacy and expanding cooperation in various sectors. Energy Cooperation: Both countries have signed agreements to boost cooperation in the energy sector, with India involved in developing several hydropower projects for long-term power trade agreements. For example, the Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project (PMP) is a bi-national Multi-Purpose Project, primarily aimed at energy production and augmenting irrigation.
Infrastructure Projects: Efforts are underway to work on infrastructure projects to improve connectivity, such as the unveiling of railway line sections and the inauguration of Integrated Checkposts. India is also undertaking three High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs) in Nepal.
Soft Relations:
Cultural and Religious Ties: Steps have been taken to strengthen cultural and religious ties between India and Nepal, including discussions on projects related to the Ramayana circuit, reflecting their shared cultural heritage. Improvement in Relations: After a period of strain, relations between India and Nepal have been improving, especially with several high-level visits, indicating efforts to enhance cooperation and resolve contentious issues.
Border Disputes:
Recent Developments in Nepal under China’s Influence
Political Shifts: Recent coalition changes in Nepal have seen a shift towards leaders perceived as pro-China and anti-India, notably with K.P. Sharma Oli’s return to power. China has actively supported the left alliance in Nepal, pushing for closer ties and cooperation, including on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Military Cooperation: High-level military visits and agreements indicate China’s intent to expand its influence in Nepal, potentially at India’s expense.
Nationalistic Trends: Rising ultra-nationalistic sentiments in Nepal, from far left to far right, pose challenges to India-Nepal relations.
Security Concerns: Historical instances of political instability in Nepal leading to security threats for India highlight the importance of stable relations between the two countries.
Geopolitical Dynamics: China’s increasing involvement in Nepal raises concerns for India, necessitating a strategic approach to counter potential challenges and maintain regional stability.
Regional and International Dynamics: While India has alliances like the QUAD (Australia, India, Japan, the United States) and other Indo-Pacific groupings, relying on them in case of a major crisis in Nepal would be risky.
The situation in Nepal could potentially lead to a new “Great Game” involving major regional and global powers.
What is India’s present stand?
Non-Interference policy: India has been keeping a low profile and avoiding involvement in Nepal’s internal affairs to prevent controversy.
Lending hand for development: India tries to always offer a new, holistic development roadmap aimed at improving the quality of lifestyle for Nepalese. This agenda includes transformative and sustainable development initiatives in sectors such as health, education, food and nutrition, child development, gender equality, and job creation.
High-Level Attention: Byhigh-level attention and promoting cross-party political consensus on major projects India tries to ensure continuity and achieve its time-bound results despite political instability.
Fostering Inter-linkages and Equality: Developing new inter-linkages between industries of both countries, India addresses the demographic dividend and fosters a sense of equality and sovereign space in Nepal.
Bone of Contention: Border Disputes
Way Forward:
Engage in Quiet Diplomacy: India can engage in quiet diplomacy, fostering dialogue with Nepal’s political stakeholders across the spectrum. This approach can help India understand Nepal’s internal dynamics better while also conveying India’s concerns and interests subtly.
India should be mindful of the “big brother-small brother” syndrome, understanding that the onus lies on India to overcome this dynamic.
India and Iran signed a 10-year agreement for the operation of the Chabahar port, marking a significant milestone in their cooperation.
Back2Basics: Chabahar Port
The port is located in southeastern Iran in the Sistan-Baluchistan province, on the Gulf of Oman and at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz.
It is called the “Golden Gate” to Central Asian land-locked countries of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
It serves as Iran’s only oceanic port and consists of two separate ports named Shahid Kalantari and Shahid Beheshti.
It is only about 170 km west of the Gwadar port if Pakistan.
The development of Chabahar port was initiated by India with a MoU in 2015 and executed in 2016 during PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Iran.
About the Agreement
The contract, signed between Indian Ports Global Ltd. (IPGL) and Port and Maritime Organisation (PMO) of Iran, involves substantial investment and development initiatives.
IPGL will invest approximately $120 million in equipping the Shahid-Behesti terminal, enhancing the port’s efficiency and capacity.
India has extended a credit window of $250 million for mutually identified projects aimed at improving Chabahar-related infrastructure, emphasizing its commitment to regional development.
Strategic Importance of Chabahar Port to India
Chabahar port will boost India’s access to Iran, the key gateway to the International North-South Transport Corridor that has sea, rail and road routes between India, Russia, Iran, Europe and Central Asia.
Chabahar port will be beneficial to India in countering Chinese presence in the Arabian Sea which China is trying to ensure by helping Pakistan develop the Gwadar port.
India can bypass Pakistan in transporting goods to Afghanistan.
Economic Significance
Chabahar Port is at an important point on the Arabian Sea, with easy access from India’s west coast.
Kandla port in Gujarat is the closest port at 550 nautical miles, while the distance between Chabahar and Mumbai is 786 nautical miles.
Since 2019, the port has handled more than 80,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of container traffic and more than 8 million tonnes of bulk and general cargo.
The port also offers an alternative route from the Strait of Hormuz for cargo traffic between Central Asian countries and Afghanistan.
PYQ:
[2017] What is the importance of developing Chabahar Port by India?
(a) India’s trade with African countries will enormously increase.
(b) India’s relations with oil-producing Arab countries will be strengthened.
(c) India will not depend on Pakistan to access Afghanistan and Central Asia.
(d) Pakistan will facilitate and protect the gas pipeline installation between Iraq and India.
Nepal’s Cabinet last week decided to put a map on its Rs 100 currency note showing certain areas administered by India in Uttarakhand as part of its territory.
India’s External Affairs Ministry said that such “unilateral measures” by Kathmandu would not change the reality on the ground.
Genesis of the issue:
Territorial dispute: The territorial dispute is about a 372-sq-km area that includes Limpiadhura, Lipulekh, and Kalapani at the India-Nepal-China trijunction in Uttarakhand’s Pithoragarh district. Nepal has claimed for long that these areas belong to it both historically and evidently.
Treaty of Sugauli (1815-16): This treaty marked the end of the Anglo-Nepalese War and resulted in Nepal ceding significant territories to the British East India Company, including lands east of the Kali River. Article 5 of the treaty delineated the boundary along the river, thereby affecting Nepal’s jurisdiction over the area.
Historical division: Maps issued by the British Surveyor General of India in the 19th and early 20th centuries depicted the Kali River as originating from Limpiadhura. These maps served as crucial references for defining territorial boundaries between Nepal and British India.
Depiction of Kali River: Maps from different periods showed variations in the depiction of the Kali River, with some using the name “Kuti Yangti” and others referring to it as the Kali River. Additionally, discrepancies emerged regarding the river’s exact origin point, with some maps showing different sources.
Map issued by Britisher (1947): The last map issued by the British before they left India in 1947 reverted to showing the initial position of the Kali River originating in Limpiadhura, indicating a reaffirmation of the historical boundary according to British cartographic records.
Argument given by Nepal to claim land:
According to Shrestha, villages in this area — Gunji, Nabhi, Kuti, and Kalapani, also known as Tulsi Nyurang and Nabhidang — were covered by the Nepal government census until 1962, and the people paid land revenue to the government in Kathmandu.
However, the situation changed after the war between India and China in 1962.
Nepal also says that then Indian PM Jawaharlal Nehru approached King Mahendra of Nepal asking for permission to use Kalapani, which was strategically located close to the trijunction, as a base for the Indian Army.
Prominent personalities representing Nepal in bilateral talks have claimed that India has made assurances regarding the resolution of border disputes if Nepal could provide evidence for its claims.
Despite assurances and agreements to expedite the resolution process, progress has been slow or stalled.
Frictions in Bilateral Ties:
From 2005-2014: The period from 2005 to 2014 saw India mediating Nepal’s transition from a Hindu Kingdom to a secular federal republic.
However, tensions arose in 2015 when Nepal’s Maoist Party rejected India’s suggestion to delay the adoption of a new constitution until the concerns of the Terai parties were addressed.
The subsequent 134-day blockade by India in September 2015 exacerbated distrust and led Nepal to seek alternative trade routes, including agreements with China.
During 2020: Nepal’s inclusion of disputed territories, such as the 372 square kilometres in Uttarakhand, in its new map in 2020 escalated tensions with India. While Nepal aimed to assert sovereignty over these areas, India condemned the move as “cartographic aggression.”
Despite India’s stance that the issue should be resolved diplomatically based on evidence, no concrete steps have been taken to address the dispute.
During 2024: The decision by Nepal’s cabinet to include the new map on its currency notes in 2024 has reignited tensions between the two countries.
India-Nepal Border Dispute
Way Forward:
Need for Dialogue: While both India and Nepal agree on the need to resolve territorial disputes through dialogue and evidence-based discussions, there has been no concrete progress in scheduling meetings or setting a timeframe for resolution.
Need for Dispute settlement: Nepal has successfully resolved boundary issues with China in the past through bilateral meetings of the boundary commission. However, the unresolved disputes with India highlight the importance of timely and effective diplomatic engagement to prevent future complications and ensure peaceful coexistence between the two neighbours.
Joint Border Commission: Establishing a joint border commission comprising representatives from both countries can facilitate a systematic review of historical documents, maps, and evidence related to territorial claims.
Mains PYQ:
Q Border management is a complex task due to difficult terrain and hostile relations with some countries. Elucidate the challenges and strategies for effective border management.
Q Evaluate the economic and strategic dimensions of India’s Look East Policy in the context of the post-Cold War international scenario..(UPSC IAS/2016)
Q India needs to strengthen measures to promote the pink revolution in food industry for ensuring better nutrition and health. Critically elucidate the statement.(UPSC IAS/2013)
Note4Students:
Prelims: NA
Mains: Challenges facing by India in south Asia,Factors contributing to India’s regional decline,
Mentor comments:India’s paradoxical foreign policy sees a rising global stature fueled by economic growth, military strength, and multilateral engagements like the Quad and BRICS. Yet, regionally, it faces weakning influence due to relative power shifts vis-à-vis China, loss of primacy in South Asia, and evolving geopolitics in the region.
Why in the news?
In contemporary Indian foreign policy, a perplexing paradox emerges as India rises on the global stage while concurrently experiencing a decline in regional influence.
Factors contributing to India’s Regional decline:
American withdrawal and China’s influence: The withdrawal of the United States from the region has created a power vacuum, allowing China to expand its influence. This has been disadvantageous to India’s regional influence but has also led to increased interest from the United States and its allies in accommodating India’s global interests to counterbalance China.
Indo-Pacific focus: While India’s focus on the Indo-Pacific has garnered global attention, it may have stretched India’s resources too thin in its continental neighborhood. This shift in focus towards the great power balance in the Indo-Pacific has potentially contributed to India’s declining influence in South Asia.
Dynamic of comparative power: India’s regional decline is a result of the dynamics of comparative power, where the rise of China and the geopolitical choices made by the region’s smaller powers have shifted the balance of influence. Overlooking the balancing acts of smaller regional powers in favor of solely focusing on great power dynamics could be counterproductive for understanding the complexities of India’s regional decline.
Challenges faced by India in South Asia:
Rise of China: China’s ascent poses a significant challenge to India’s regional influence, with its growing power shifting the balance in South Asia.
Shift in regional dynamics: The arrival of China in South Asia, coupled with the withdrawal of the U.S. from the region, has altered the regional balance of power, creating geopolitical competition for influence.
Strategies of smaller South Asian nations: India’s smaller neighbors are adopting various strategies, such as balancing, bargaining, hedging, and bandwagoning, in response to the changing power dynamics, often viewing China as a useful hedge against India.
Obsolescence of South Asia as a geopolitical construct: The traditional concept of South Asia as a geopolitical entity is becoming obsolete, further challenging India’s hold on the region.
What needs to be done?
Revisiting traditional conceptions: India must reassess its traditional conceptions of the region and modernize its approach to maintain primacy in South Asia.
Accepting changing realities: Acknowledging the fundamental changes in the region’s geopolitics is crucial for India to effectively address the challenges it faces.
Focus on strengths: India should leverage its strengths rather than attempting to match China’s might in every aspect. Reclaiming its traditional strengths, such as its Buddhist heritage, can be beneficial.
Leveraging maritime advantages: Given the challenges in its continental strategy, India should capitalize on its maritime advantages in the Indo-Pacific to enhance trade, form minilaterals, and build issue-based coalitions.
Engaging with smaller South Asian neighbors: India should include its smaller South Asian neighbors in Indo-Pacific strategic conversations to wean them away from China’s regional grand strategy and strengthen partnerships with key players like Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Bangladesh.
Adopting a non-India centric approach: India’s willingness to view the region through a non-India centric lens signals openness to collaborating with external friendly partners in addressing common challenges in the Indian Ocean and South Asia.
Way Forward
Diversify Engagement: India should diversify its engagement strategies to encompass both global and regional interests effectively. This could involve maintaining robust relationships with global powers while simultaneously strengthening ties with regional neighbors.
Enhance Regional Cooperation: India should prioritize enhancing cooperation and collaboration within South Asia. This could involve revitalizing initiatives like SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) and promoting bilateral partnerships with individual South Asian countries.
The Central Asia region is in the spotlight since it is facing challenges with political instability, ethnic tensions, and the threat of extremism, especially after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
About Central Asia
Central Asia, often referred to as the heart of Asia, is a vast and diverse region located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia.
It encompasses the area between the Caspian Sea in the west and China in the east, and from Russia in the north to Afghanistan and Iran in the south.
Central Asia is comprised of five main countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
This region has a rich history, serving as the historical crossroads of the Silk Road, which facilitated trade and cultural exchange between Europe and Asia for centuries.
Geographical Details:
Mountains:
Tian Shan: This mountain range stretches across Central Asia, forming a natural border between Kyrgyzstan and China. It is renowned for its majestic peaks, including Pobeda Peak, the highest point in Kyrgyzstan.
Pamir Mountains: Known as the “Roof of the World,” the Pamir Mountains are located in Tajikistan and extend into neighboring countries. They contain some of the world’s highest peaks, including Ismoil Somoni Peak (formerly known as Peak Communism) and Kongur Tagh.
Alay Mountains: Situated in southern Kyrgyzstan, the Alay Mountains are a subrange of the Tian Shan. They are characterized by rugged terrain and deep valleys.
Turkestan Range: This mountain range runs through southern Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, forming part of the border between the two countries.
Water Bodies:
Amu Darya: Also known as the Oxus River, the Amu Darya is one of the major rivers in Central Asia. It originates in the Pamir Mountains and flows through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan before emptying into the Aral Sea (though much of its water is diverted for irrigation).
Syr Darya: Another important river in Central Asia, the Syr Darya, originates in the Tian Shan Mountains. It flows through Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, eventually joining the Amu Darya in the Aral Sea basin.
Aral Sea: Once the fourth-largest lake in the world, the Aral Sea has shrunk dramatically due to diversion of its tributary rivers for irrigation purposes. Its decline has had severe ecological and economic consequences for the region.
Issyk-Kul: Located in eastern Kyrgyzstan, Issyk-Kul is one of the largest alpine lakes in the world. It is surrounded by snow-capped mountains and is a popular tourist destination.
Deserts:
Karakum Desert: Covering much of Turkmenistan, the Karakum Desert is characterized by vast expanses of sand dunes and sparse vegetation. It is home to the Darvaza Gas Crater, also known as the “Door to Hell.”
Kyzylkum Desert: Situated primarily in Uzbekistan, with parts extending into Kazakhstan, the Kyzylkum Desert is known for its red sands and arid climate. It is sparsely populated, with nomadic herders and wildlife such as gazelles and wild boars.
Mineral Resources:
Oil and Gas: The Caspian Sea region, in particular, is known for its oil and gas deposits, with countries like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan actively involved in their exploration and extraction. The discovery of large oil fields, such as the Tengiz Field in Kazakhstan and the Galkynysh Field in Turkmenistan, has attracted international investment and contributed to economic growth in the region.
Uranium: Kazakhstan is one of the world’s leading producers of uranium, with significant deposits located in the south of the country. Other Central Asian countries, such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, also have uranium reserves, although they are less developed than those in Kazakhstan.
Precious Metals: Kyrgyzstan has a long history of gold mining, with several large-scale mines operating in the country. Uzbekistan is also a significant producer of gold, with the Muruntau Gold Mine being one of the largest in the world.
Copper, Aluminum, and Iron: These resources are primarily found in mountainous regions, such as the Tian Shan and Pamir Mountains. Countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have large deposits of copper ore, which are mined for domestic use and export. Additionally, Kazakhstan is a major producer of aluminum, with significant reserves of bauxite, the primary source of aluminum.
Climate
Central Asia experiences a continental climate, with hot summers and cold winters.
However, the climate varies significantly depending on altitude and proximity to mountain ranges.
In general, the region is characterized by low precipitation and high evaporation rates, leading to arid and semi-arid conditions in many areas.
The mountains influence local climates, with cooler temperatures and higher precipitation levels in upland areas.
Major Disputed Areas:
Countries Involved
Description
Bagys and Turkestanetz
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
Disputed settlements involved in border negotiations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Turkestanetz ultimately attributed to Uzbekistan, while Kazakhstan retained control over significant water reservoirs.
Negotiations primarily occurred in the early 2000s.
The area is characterized by flat plains and arid landscapes, typical of Central Asian geography.
Arnasy Dam
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
Part of the land negotiations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, particularly significant during the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.
The area surrounding the dam is marked by river valleys and semi-arid terrain, with the Arnasy River being a prominent feature.
Sokh and Shakhi-Mardan Enclaves
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan
Uzbek enclaves located in Kyrgyzstan, particularly contentious and mined by Uzbekistan as part of their border security measures.
Tensions in this area have been ongoing since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with occasional flare-ups in violence.
The region is characterized by mountainous terrain, including the Pamir-Alay and Turkestan mountain ranges.
Ferghana Valley
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
A fertile region shared by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, known for its complex network of enclaves and high degree of inter-ethnic tensions.
Disputes often arise over control of strategic points such as border crossings and access to water resources, leading to occasional clashes and violence.
Tensions in the Ferghana Valley have persisted since the early 1990s.
The valley is surrounded by the Tian Shan and Alay mountain ranges, with the Syr Darya river flowing through it.
Vorukh Enclave
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan
A Tajik enclave within Kyrgyzstan, part of the complex border issues in the Ferghana Valley.
Tensions in this enclave date back to the Soviet era but have intensified since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The enclave is nestled in the mountainous terrain of the Ferghana Valley, near the Zeravshan Range.
Chardara Reservoir and Lake Arnasai
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
Areas discussed in border negotiations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The negotiations occurred primarily in the late 1990s, with Kazakhstan securing a neck of land that provided a direct transport connection to the rest of the country.
The region is characterized by flat plains and agricultural land surrounding the reservoir and lake.
The Chardara Reservoir is fed by the Syr Darya river.
Osh City and Osh Volost
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan
Areas that were contentious during the national delimitation in the Soviet period, particularly in the 1920s.
They were included in the Kirghiz Autonomous Oblast despite a high percentage of Uzbek residents who opposed this inclusion.
The area is characterized by mountainous terrain, including the Fergana Range.
Isfara Valley
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
A narrow, densely populated valley straddling the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, disputes in this region often stem from territorial claims, resource allocation, and control of strategic points such as border crossings and water sources.
Tensions have been ongoing since the early 1990s.
The valley is surrounded by mountain ranges, including the Pamir-Alay and Turkestan ranges, and is known for its agricultural productivity.
Batken Region
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
Located in southern Kyrgyzstan, bordered by Tajikistan to the south and Uzbekistan to the west, disputes in this region are primarily related to territorial claims, control of strategic areas, and occasional clashes between border communities.
Tensions have been particularly notable since the mid-1990s.
The region is characterized by rugged mountain terrain, including the Pamir-Alay and Turkestan ranges.
Karakalpakstan
Uzbekistan
An autonomous republic within Uzbekistan, disputes in this region are mainly related to water scarcity, ecological degradation, and the socio-economic impact of the shrinking Aral Sea.
Tensions over these issues have escalated since the mid-20th century.
Karakalpakstan is characterized by flat, arid plains and is situated adjacent to the shrinking Aral Sea.
Caspian Sea
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan
The world’s largest inland body of water bordered by Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, disputes often revolve around issues such as maritime boundaries, resource exploration rights, and environmental conservation.
Negotiations over the status of the Caspian Sea and its resources have been ongoing since the early 1990s.
The Caspian Sea is characterized by its vast expanse of water and surrounding coastal regions.
India has handed over the first batch of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines marking a significant step in bilateral defense cooperation.
India- Philippines Brahmos Deal
In January 2022, the Philippines inked a $375-million deal with India for three batteries of the shore-based, anti-ship variant of the BrahMos missile,
This made it the first export customer for this joint venture between India and Russia.
Several countries, including Indonesia and Thailand, have expressed interest in procuring BrahMos systems, and discussions are underway.
About BrahMos Missiles
Development:
BrahMos is a joint venture between the DRDO and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya.
The name BrahMos comes from the two rivers, the Brahmaputraof India and the Moskvaof Russia.
The first successful test in 2001 was conducted from a specially designed land-based launcher.
Capabilities:
BrahMos is a medium-range ramjet supersonic cruise missile.
Launched from: Submarine, ships, aircraft, or land.
It is the fastest supersonic cruise missilein the world.
It has two stages:
First stage comprising of a solid fuelrocket booster and
Second stage comprising a liquid-fueled ramjet.
Warhead:
Ship-launched and land-based missiles can carry a 200 kg warhead,
Aircraft-launched variant (BrahMos A) can carry a 300 kg warhead.
Variants and Range
The missile travels at speeds of Mach 2.8 to 3.0, which is being upgraded to Mach 5.0.
A hypersonic version of the missile, BrahMos-II, is also presently under development with a speed of Mach 7-8 to boost aerial fast strike capability.
Initially restricted by the Missile Technology Control Regime to a range of 290km, the BrahMos missile’s range was extended to 450km following India’s entry into the regime in June 2016.
Ongoing efforts aim further to extend the missile’s range beyond 600km, enhancing its operational reach and effectiveness in various scenarios.
Strategic Implications of the move
This development comes amidst escalating tensions in theSouth China Sea between the Philippines and China emphasizing the significance of enhancing defensive preparedness.
The acquisition of BrahMos missiles under Horizon 2 of the Revised Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernization Programme will bolster the defensive capabilities of the Philippines armed forces.
PYQ:
[2014] Which reference to Agni-IV Missile, which of the following statements is/are correct?
It is a surface-to-surface missile.
It is fuelled by liquid propellant only.
It can deliver one-tonne nuclear warheads about 7500 km away.
Select the correct answer using the code given below.
