💥Mains Ready By December. Smash Mains & Smash PYQ Admissions Open
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • China’s missile tests could have Sputnik-like effect

    Context

    On October 27 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US, reacted to China testing its nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons system by drawing an analogy with a Sputnik moment.

    How US’s Ballistic Missile Defence led to the recent Sputnik moment

    •  Since the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty in 2002, both Russia and China have been wary of Washington’s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) programme.
    • It undermines strategic stability: Missile defence is inherently destabilising — it undermines “strategic stability”.
    • A robust BMD would compromise the second strike capability of the adversary by neutralising the surviving incoming missiles in case of a near-decapitating first strike
    • Both Russia and China thus view the US BMD as undermining their deterrence and have sought ways to restore their retaliatory strike capability by investing in new technologies such as Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs).
    • HGVs can escape the missile defence systems.
    • HGVs fly at lower altitudes than ballistic missiles, which means they could potentially escape early warning systems, aided by the earth’s curvature.

    Implications of Chinese test

    • It can set off competition: The Chinese tests have the potential to set off an aggressive competition among the nuclear powers to modernise their nuclear arsenals and add new, potentially destabilising capabilities to their arsenal.
    • Global and regional arms race: In the present era of minimal arms control measures, the Chinese hypersonic missile system test will trigger an intense arms race both at the global and regional levels.
    • With the Chinese test, the US may be forced to expand its hypersonic programme and further modernise its missile defence systems.

    What should be the course of action for India

    • China’s nuclear-tipped hypersonic weapon systems, though not particularly India-focused, could nudge New Delhi to adopt two courses of action.
    • Missile program: First, accelerate its hypersonic missiles programme.
    • Develop missile defence system: Second, consider erecting an equally robust missile defence.
    • Chinese advancement in stealth technologies will drive New Delhi to seek similar capabilities but also develop effective countermeasures.
    • This can then set off a regional arms race, a sign that is not particularly encouraging for regional peace.

    Consider the question “Examine the implications of recent hypersonic missile test by China for the region and global arms race control efforts? What should be the course of action for India? “

    Conclusion

    China’s hypersonic missile test may not have come with a Sputnik-like surprise, but it has the potential to set off a post-Sputnik-like arms race that does not augur well for the strategic stability both at the global and regional level.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Back2Basics: Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs)

    • A hypersonic missile is a vehicle that achieves a speed five times faster than the speed of sound, crossing Mach 5.
    • These missiles travel at a speed of around 6,115 km per hour, with a combination of technology and manoeuvrability of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

    Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS)

    • A Fractional Orbital Bombardment System is a warhead delivery system that uses a low earth orbit towards its target destination.
    • Just before reaching the target, it deorbits through a retrograde engine burn.

  • A collaborative tech vision for US, UAE, Israel and India

    Context

    Last month’s meeting between the foreign ministers of India, the US, Israel, and the UAE has set foreign policy circles in India abuzz with talks of the potential emergence of another quadrilateral grouping or as analysts term it, a “new Quad”.

    Significance of the new Quad meeting

    • Collaboration in various areas: The grouping discussed technology collaboration along with the joint infrastructure projects in transportation, enhancing political and economic cooperation and maritime security matters.
    • Forum for economic cooperation: They have agreed to set up an international forum for economic cooperation.
    • Collaboration on technology: Amongst all the issues discussed, the technology dimension of this partnership promises a far greater potential for collaboration.
    • The four countries are uniquely placed to shape an innovation-based partnership, which can conjoin the technology hubs of Silicon Valley, Dubai, Tel Aviv, and Bengaluru.
    • Such potential collaboration can benefit from the existing robust cooperation between these countries.
    • Collaboration in fintech: The agreement between Start-Up Nation Central, an Israeli non-profit that connects the tech ecosystem, and Dubai International Financial Centre, the UAE’s financial hub, will create regulatory sandboxes and accelerators for start-ups and provide them with market access opportunities.
    • India and the US have been separately working with the two countries on multiple projects.

    New Quad’s technology cooperation

    • Tech-based collaboration: Given the synergies in the innovation and startup sector, it is logical that the “new Quad” works towards tech-based collaboration.
    • The agenda for the new Quad’s technology cooperation can begin by selecting three technologies — quantum science, blockchain, and 3D printing.
    • Collaboration in quantum technology: Israel and the US, too, have made research on quantum technology a priority by allocating $91 million and $1.2 billion respectively to this sector.
    • India is also fast catching up through its National Mission on Quantum Technologies and Applications and joining hands with countries like France to work on this technology.
    • Collaboration in the blockchain:  in blockchain, India and the UAE can leverage the American and Israeli expertise in cyber and cryptography to craft customised applications for use in banking, fintech and trade financing.
    • Collaboration in 3-D printing: In 3D printing, which promises to transform the manufacturing process radically, Israel has taken the lead in manufacturing about 40 per cent of 3D printers worldwide.
    • India, in contrast, has been slow in getting onto the 3D printing bandwagon. But it can certainly benefit from the expertise of the US, Israel and the UAE.
    • Opportunity for India: From the Indian perspective, such partnerships can leverage Silicon Valley’s venture capital funding, Tel Aviv’s close-knit organic linkages between start-ups, industry, and academia, and UAE’s funding and focus on innovation.
    • To this mix, Bengaluru — and potentially Hyderabad — can add opportunities for scaling up and manufacturing.
    • The startup community in the US, Israel and the UAE have already reached an advanced research and development stage providing an opportunity for India to build expertise and offer the scale to the development and applications of these technologies.

    Way forward

    • Security cooperation: The collaborative and customisation possibilities offered by these technologies and their dual-use nature offers the potential to give a technological edge to the four countries’ militaries.
    •  This, in turn, can add the security cooperation element to the grouping’s agenda.
    • Broaden the base: If the four countries plug their innovation ecosystems in this collaboration to shortlist, fund and develop technologies, it will also help to broaden the base of cooperation for this grouping, rather than restrict it to the government-to-government domain.
    • Government push will be the essential catalyst to unlock this space for cooperation through seed-funding, academic collaborations, industrial partnerships and MoUs.
    • China factor: By collaborating with Russia, and domestic flagship initiatives like “Made in China 2025”, Beijing has pursued emerging technologies and successfully reduced the capability gap with Washington.
    • These developments make it imperative for the US, Israel, UAE, and India to strengthen their newly established cooperation.

    Conclusion

    Each country with its unique advantage in the field of science and technology, innovation and start-ups can make a significant contribution to advance shared technological goals.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • India-Maldives Relations in recent times

    The Government of Maldives has said that it “strongly rejects attempts to spread false information” criticizing its ties with India, its “closest ally and trusted neighbor”.

    The India-Out Campaign

    • Maldivian protesters recently demanded the Solih administration to ‘stop selling national assets to foreigners’, implying India.
    • ‘India Out’ campaign in Maldives had started sometime last year as on-ground protests in the Maldives and later widely spread across social media platforms under the same hashtag.
    • It is not related to people-to-people conflict (Indian diaspora) but is discontent on close relationship between Maldivian government & India.

    Causes for the anti-India sentiments

    • Political instability: The anti-India sentiment is nearly a decade old and can be traced back to when Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom became president in 2013. He used anti-India sentiments for his political mobilization and started tilting China.
    • Controversy over helicopter gift: Two Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters (ALF) that were given by India to the Maldives for ocean search-and-rescue operations. Opposition tried to portray this as military presence in the country.
    • Confidential agreements: Most agreements being signed between the Ibrahim Solih government and India are backdoor and has not been publicly discussed in the Maldives Parliament.
    • Alleged interference in domestic politics: India being a big neighbour, there are unsubstantiated perceptions & allegations on Indian Diplomats stationed in Maldives interfering in Domestic affairs.

    India-Maldives Relations: A backgrounder

    • India and Maldives are neighbors sharing a maritime border.
    • Both nations established diplomatic relations after the independence of Maldives from British rule in 1966.
    • India was one of the first nations to recognize Maldives’ independence.
    • Since then, India and Maldives have developed close strategic, military, economic and cultural relations.
    • Maldivians generally regard Indians and India as a friend and trusted neighbor in the field economic, social and political.

    Restoration of ties

    • Ibrahim Mohamed Solih who became President in 2018 has restored Maldives close ties with India.

    Major irritants in ties

    • Political Instability: India’s major concern has been the impact of political instability in the neighborhood on its security and development.
    • Increasing radicalization: In the past decade or so, the number of Maldivians drawn towards terrorist groups like the Islamic State (IS) and Pakistan-based jihadist groups has been increasing.
    • Inclination towards terror: Radicalism in the island nation has increased the possibility of Pakistan based terror groups using remote Maldivian islands as a launch pad for terror attacks against India and Indian interests.
    • Chinese affinity: China’s strategic footprint in India’s neighborhood has increased. The Maldives has emerged as an important ‘pearl’ in China’s “String of Pearls” construct in South Asia.

    Recent gestures by India

    [1] 2014 Malé drinking-water crisis

    • In the wake of a drinking water crisis in Malé in December 2014, following collapse of the island’s only water treatment plant, Maldives urged India for immediate help.
    • India came to rescue by sending its heavy lift transporters like C-17 Globemaster III, Il-76 carrying bottled water.

    [2] 2020 Covid-19 crisis

    • During the COVID-19 crisis of 2020, India extended help to Maldives in the form of financial, material and logistical support.
    • Also, the IAF airlifted 6.2 tonnes of essential medicines and hospital consumables to Maldives, as part of ‘Operation Sanjeevani’.

    [3] Greater Male Connectivity Project

    • India has recently announced the signing of a $500-million infrastructure project for the construction of the Greater Malé Connectivity Project (GMCP).
    • This infrastructure project, the largest-ever by India in the Maldives, involves the construction of a 6.74-km-long bridge and causeway link.

    Why is Maldives significant for India?

    • Increasing maritime cooperation: As maritime economic activity in the Indian Ocean has risen dramatically in recent decades, the geopolitical competition too in the Indian Ocean has intensified.
    • Toll Gate in Indian Ocean: It is situated at the hub of commercial sea-lanes running through the Indian Ocean. More than 97% of India’s international trade by volume and 75% by value passes through the region.
    • Naval cooperation: Maldives is an important partner in India’s role as the net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region.
    • Important SAARC member: Besides, Maldives is a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC).
    • People To People Contact: There is a significant population of Maldivian students in India. They are aided by a liberal visa-free regime extended by India. There is also medical tourism.
    • Major destination for Tourists: Tourism is the mainstay of the Maldivian economy. The country is now a major tourist destination for some Indians and a job destination for others.

    Conclusion

    • There is a significant Indian diaspora in the Maldives. Innumerable Indians work across the hospitality, education, and health-care sectors of the Maldives economy.
    • India must use its Diaspora more extensively for strengthening its relations.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Kabul, Kashmir and the return of realpolitik

    Context

    In a rather unfriendly neighbourhood, New Delhi’s attempts at forming a regional consensus to stabilise Afghanistan, albeit wise and timely, will only achieve limited success thanks to the China-Pakistan coalition and its interests at play in and over Afghanistan.

    Role played by China and Pakistan in Afghanistan and its implications for India

    • China’s long-term vision for Afghanistan revolves around the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project of which Afghanistan has been a part since May 2016.
    • The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is also viewed as a key component within the larger Chinese BRI project and Afghanistan could eventually become part of CPEC if and when the Taliban regime stabilises itself in the country.
    • Role of Pakistan in keeping India away from Afghanistan: While Pakistan lobbies the international community to help prevent Afghanistan slide into further turmoil, it is determined to keep India as far away from Kabul as possible.
    • Pakistan has always been deeply suspicious of growing India-Afghanistan relations no matter who was/is in charge in Kabul.
    • Implications for India: It is likely that the more India gets close to the Taliban, the more the Pakistani side will increase the ‘attacks’ in Jammu and Kashmir.
    • By maintaining ties with the Taliban and convening the regional security meeting in New Delhi, India has indicated that this is an acceptable risk.
    • Regional Security Dialogue: The recently-held Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan was an important initiative to help Afghanistan stabilise, the reality is that the two countries that are key to stabilising Afghanistan — China and Pakistan — decided to stay away from it.
    • Scope for other powers: Russia or the Central Asian states have neither the ability nor the desire to pursue a role in Afghanistan autonomous from the larger Chinese or Pakistani designs there.

    The dilemma facing the international community

    • Taliban and Pakistan refer to the U.S.-led coalition as ‘colonisers’ who just vacated the Afghan territory; and in the same breath, they seek assistance from those very ‘former colonisers’.
    • But perhaps what might bother the West the most is that if they stabilise the country, they would still be called former colonisers, and Pakistan and China will benefit out of it geopolitically, making it, in that sense, a thankless job for the West.
    • So the question before the western leaders is how to offer structured incentives to the Taliban, and when.

    The dilemma facing India

    • To engage the Taliban or not: The first one was to decide whether to engage the Taliban or not.
    • The successive governments in Afghanistan, including the current Taliban regime, have sought relations with India which has upset Pakistan.
    • The Taliban want India to engage and help the country stabilise, but Pakistan resents that.
    • Catch-22 situation for India: If the Taliban regime is stabilised in Kabul without India’s assistance to the country, the more it is likely to do Pakistan’s bidding vis-à-vis India.
    • On the other hand, the more India helps the Taliban-led Afghanistan, the more Pakistan will up the ante in Kashmir.
    • This is a catch-22 situation that India finds itself in.
    • And yet, India has little choice but to engage the Taliban.

    How Taliban victory led to change in Pakistan’s Kashmir policy

    • The earlier Pakistani willingness to be conciliatory towards India on Kashmir before and in the run-up to the Taliban takeover of Kabul in August 2021 seems to have disappeared for now.
    • This is at least partly due to the Pakistani triumphalism about the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.
    • Since then, violence data show that the backchannel understanding is withering away with violence in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) spiking along all three indicators albeit gradually.
    • Sentiments from across the border also indicate that the earlier Pakistani stand that it would accept the Indian decision to withdraw the special status to Kashmir in lieu of New Delhi restoring Statehood to Kashmir and allowing political activity in the State has now change.
    • It now demands that India fully reverts to the pre-August 5, 2019 position on Kashmir.

    Way forward

    • No possibility of cooperation with China and Pak: Any possibility of India-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan would be very hard to achieve.
    • Beijing will play along; so will Iran and the Central Asian countries, for the most part.
    • Coordinate with other powers: For India, the options are to coordinate its Afghan policy with Moscow, Washington and the various western capitals while steadfastly engaging the Taliban.

    Consider the question “Return of Taliban in Afghanistan and consequential geopolitical changes in the region are bound to have implications for India-Pakistan relation. Comment.” 

    Conclusion

    India’s advances to court the Taliban and attempts to evolve a regional consensus on Afghanistan might deteriorate India-Pakistan relations and pose challenges for India in Kashmir.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • The EU’s role in the Indo-Pacific

    Context

    Speedy development of the Quad comprising Australia, Japan, India and the U.S.; the emergence of AUKUS comprising Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.; and other alignments raise the question: where does Europe stand in relation to this churning?

    Significance of EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy

    • Europe’s Asia connect is old, strong and multi-layered.
    • Since 2018, countries such as France, the Netherlands, Germany and the U.K. announced their specific policies towards the Indo-Pacific.
    • The announcement by the Council of the European Union of its initial policy conclusions in April, followed by the unveiling of the EU strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific on September 16, are notable.
    • Focus on security and development: The policy document also says cooperation will be strengthened in sustainable and inclusive prosperity, green transition, ocean governance, digital governance and partnerships, connectivity, security and defence, and human security.

    Way forward for EU

    • Support France: The EU’s security and defence capabilities are quite limited, as compared to the U.S. and China.
    • To obviate an imbalance in favour of economic links, EU will need to give adequate space and support to France which has sizeable assets and linkages with the Indo-Pacific.
    • Coordination with UK: EU also must forge strategic coordination with the U.K. as the latter prepares to expand its role in Asia as part of its ‘Global Britain’ strategy.
    • Leverage economic power: As a major economic power, the EU has an excellent chance of success in its trade negotiations with Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand; economic partnership agreement with the East African Community; and in forging fisheries agreements and green alliances.
    • To achieve all this and more, EU must increase its readiness to share its financial resources and new technologies with partners.
    • Internally coordinated approach:Many states view China as a great economic opportunity, but others are acutely conscious of the full contours of the China challenge.
    • Russia next door is the more traditional threat. It is increasingly on China’s side.
    • Hence, the EU should find it easy to cooperate with the Quad.
    • AUKUS, endeavours by a part of the western alliance to bolster naval and technological facilities to deal with China should be welcome.

    Way forward for India

    • India’s pivotal position in the region necessitates a closer India-EU partnership.
    • Early conclusion of an ambitious and comprehensive trade agreement and a standalone investment protection agreement will be major steps.
    • Cooperation in Industry 4.0 technologies is desirable.
    • Consolidating and upgrading defence ties with France, Germany and the U.K. should also remain a significant priority.

    Conclusion

    The EU can create a vantage position for itself in the Indo-Pacific by being more candid with itself, more assertive with China, and more cooperative with India.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • What the rise of pan-Turkism means for India

    Context

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been playing internationalist card for national benefit. India, which has been worried about Erdogan’s Islamist politics, must now begin to pay attention to another political idea from the Turkish president — promoting pan-Turkism.

    Impact of political ideas on global politics

    • Internationalism based on religion, region or secular ideologies has always run headlong into resistance from sectarianism and nationalism.
    • Yet, these ideas have a profound impact on global politics.
    • Calls for regionalism and internationalism as well as religious and ethnic solidarity often end up as instruments for the pursuit of national interest.

    The rise of pan-Turkism

    • Foundation of OTS: The international symbol of solidarity among peoples of Turkic ethnicity has been the Council of Turkic States, formed in 2009 by Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
    •  At a summit of the Council’s leaders last week in Istanbul, it was announced that the forum has been elevated to an “Organisation of Turkic States”.
    • Hungary, which has a long history of association with Turkic people, and Turkmenistan have observer status.
    •  At least a dozen other countries have apparently shown interest in getting observer status.
    • Implications: There is no escaping the fact that Turkey is determined to rewrite the geopolitics of Eurasia.
    • The rise of pan-Turkism is bound to have important consequences for Afghanistan, the Caucasus, Central Asia and, more broadly, India’s Eurasian neighbourhood.

    Rise of Turkey in Central Asia

    • Soft power initiatives: Over the last three decades, a number of soft power initiatives — in education, culture, and religion — have raised Turkey’s profile in Central Asia and generated new bonds with the region’s elites.
    • Military power: It is in the domains of hard power — commercial and military — that Turkey’s progress has been impressive.
    • Turkey has stunned much of the world with its military power projection into the region.
    • That Kazakhstan, a member of the Russia-led regional security bloc, is moving towards strategic cooperation with Turkey, a member of US-led NATO, points to the thickening pan-Turkic bonds in a rapidly changing regional order.
    • The dominance of economy and trade: Nearly 5,000 Turkish companies work in Central Asia. Turkish annual trade with the region is around $10 billion.
    • This could change as Turkey strengthens connectivity with Central Asia through the Caucasus.
    • For the Central Asian states, living under the shadow of Chinese economic power and Russian military power, Turkey offers a chance for economic diversification and greater strategic autonomy.
    • Connectivity: Turkey has also made impressive progress in building transportation corridors to Central Asia and beyond, to China, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
    • The so-called Lapis Lazuli Corridor now connects Turkey to Afghanistan via Turkmenistan.

    What should be India’s approach towards Turkey?

    • Pan-Turkism is a good reason for India to explore a more purposeful engagement with Turkey.
    • Issues: There is no denying that the current differences between Delhi and Ankara over Kashmir, Pakistan and Afghanistan are real and serious.
    • Need for dialogue: The current political divergence only reinforces the case for a sustained dialogue between the two governments and the strategic communities of the two countries.
    • Lessons for India: Turkey’s own geopolitics offers valuable lessons on how to deal with Ankara.
    • That Turkey is a NATO member has not stopped Erdogan from a strategic liaison with Russian.
    • Purchase of advanced weapons like S-400 missiles from Moscow  does not stop Erdogan from meddling in Russia’s Central Asian backyard.
    • Criticism of China’s repression of Turkic Uighurs in Xinjiang — that was once called “Eastern Turkestan” — goes hand-in-hand with deep economic collaboration with Beijing.
    • What does this policy tell India? One, Erdogan’s enduring enthusiasm for Pakistan does not preclude Turkey from doing business — economic and strategic — with India.
    • Limiting Turkish hegemony: Erdogan’s ambitions have offended many countries in Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Caucasus.
    • Many of them are eager to expand strategic cooperation with India in limiting Turkish hegemony.
    • This opens a range of new opportunities for Indian foreign and security policy in Eurasia.
    • Imperative to engage: Sceptics will point to the fact that Erdogan’s time is running out.
    • That does not, however, alter the Indian imperative to engage with Turkey.

    Consider the question “Turkey’s influence in Eurasian region is expanding. In this context examine the issues that adds friction between India and Turkey and suggest the approach India should adopt in dealing with Turkey.”

    Conclusion

    Independent India has struggled to develop good relations with Turkey over the decades. A hard-headed approach in Delhi today, however, might open new possibilities with Ankara and in Turkey’s Eurasian periphery.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Reopening of the Kartarpur Corridor Project

    The government is considering reopening the Kartarpur Sahib Gurudwara corridor to Pakistan this week for Gurpurab or Prakash Parv.

    Kartarpur Corridor

    • The Kartarpur corridor connects the Darbar Sahib Gurdwara in Narowal district of Pakistan with the Dera Baba Nanak shrine in Gurdaspur district in India’s Punjab province.
    • The name Kartarpur means “Place of God”.
    • The first guru of Sikhism, Guru Nanak, founded Kartarpur in 1504 AD on the right bank of the Ravi River.

    Inception of the project

    • The Kartarpur Corridor was first proposed in early 1999 by then PMs Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif as part of the Delhi–Lahore Bus diplomacy.
    • The project is now compared to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, as it could help in easing tensions between the two countries.

    Conditions for the pilgrimage (from Indian side)

    • Only Indians resident or overseas citizens can travel by corridor, Pakistanis cannot.
    • Children or aged persons of all ages can register to apply.
    • After 15 days of travel by corridor another registration can be done for second visit.
    • Registration can only be done online at a mentioned website of Indian Government

    About Guru Nanak

    • Guru Nanak Dev (1469-1539) also referred to as Baba Nanak was the founder of Sikhism and is the first of the ten Sikh Gurus.
    • He advocated the ‘Nirguna’ form of Bhakti. He rejected sacrifices, ritual baths, image worship, austerities and the scriptures of both Hindus and Muslims.
    • He appointed one of his disciples, Angad, to succeed him as the preceptor (guru), and this practice was followed for nearly 200 years.
    • The fifth preceptor, Guru Arjan, compiled his hymns along with those of his four successors and also other religious poets, like Baba Farid, Ravidas, and Kabir, in the Adi Granth Sahib.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Will U.S. sanction India for S-400 purchase?

    The arrival of the $5.4-billion Russian long-range surface-to-air missile defence shield “S-400” is expected next month, which is likely to generate more international headlines.

    About S-400

    • The S-400 is known as Russia’s most advanced long-range surface-to-air missile defence system, capable of destroying hostile strategic bombers, jets, missiles and drones at a range of 380-km.

    US reservations against S-400 purchase

    • The US has made it clear that the delivery of the five S-400 systems is considered a “significant transaction”.
    • Such deals are considered under its Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) of 2017.
    • It could trigger sanctions against Indian officials and the Government.

    About CAATSA

    • The CAATSA is designed to ensure that no country is able to increase military engagement with Iran, North Korea and Russia without facing deterrent punitive action from the US.
    • The sanctions are unilateral, and not part of any United Nations decision, and therefore no country is bound to accept them.
    • Section 231 says the President shall impose no fewer than five different sanctions on any Government that enters into a significant defence or intelligence deal with Russia.
    • Section 235 lists 12 options, including stopping credit lines from US and international banks such as the IMF, blocking sales of licensed goods and technology, banning banks, manufacturers and suppliers, property transactions and even financial and visa sanctions on specific officials.
    • However, the law also empowers the President to waiver sanctions or delay them if the waiver is in the US’s “vital national security interests”.

    Has the US used CAATSA before for S-400 sales?

    • The US has already placed sanctions on China and Turkey for purchase of the S-400.
    • The sanctions included denial of export licences, ban on foreign exchange transactions, blocking of all property and interests in property within the US jurisdiction and a visa ban.

    Types of sanctions laid

    • In 2020, the US sanctioned its NATO partner Turkey, which it had warned about CAATSA sanctions for years, besides cancelling a deal to sell Ankara F-35 jets.
    • The sanctions on Turkey’s main defence procurement agency, also included a ban on licences and loans, and blocking of credit and visas to related officials.

    Likely impacts after India’s purchase

    • The Biden administration has no firm indication on where it leans on India’s case.
    • However, several senators (US parliamentarians) have called upon the Biden administration to consider a special waiver for India.
    • This is on account of India’s importance as a defence partner, and as a strategic partner on US concerns over China and in the Quad.
    • Other US leaders thinks that giving a waiver to India would be the wrong signal for others seeking to go ahead with similar deals.

    Why is the S-400 deal so important to India?

    • Security paradigm: S-400 is very important for India’s national security considerations due to the threats from China, Pakistan and now Afghanistan.
    • Air defence capability: The system will also offset the air defence capability gaps due to the IAF’s dwindling fighter squadron strength.
    • Russian legacy: Integrating the S-400 will be much easier as India has a large number of legacy Russian air defence systems.
    • Strategic autonomy: For both political as well as operational reasons, the deal is at a point of no return.

    Conclusion

    • The deal is a way for the Government to assert its strategic autonomy.
    • India had earlier agreed to stop buying Iranian oil over the threat of sanctions in 2019, a move that caused India both financial and reputational damage.
    • Not giving in to the US’s unilateral sanctions would be one way to restore some of that.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • India-Eurasia Relations

    Context

    Delhi’s Indo-Pacific strategy has acquired political and institutional traction, thanks to intensive Indian diplomacy in recent years. It must now devote similar energy to the development of a “Eurasian” policy.

    Need for Eurasian strategy and challenges

    • This week’s consultations in Delhi on the crisis in Afghanistan among the region’s top security policymakers is part of developing a Eurasian strategy.
    • National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has invited his counterparts from Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia, Russia, and China to join this discussion on Wednesday.
    • Pakistan has declined to join.
    • Pakistan’s reluctance to engage with India on Afghanistan reveals Delhi’s persisting problem with Islamabad in shaping a new Eurasian strategy.
    • But it also reinforces the urgency of an Indian strategy to deal with Eurasia.

    Factors shaping India’s Eurasian policy

    • The most important development in Eurasia today is the dramatic rise of China and its growing strategic assertiveness, expanding economic power and rising political influence.
    • Beijing’s muscular approach to the long and disputed border with Bhutan and India, its quest for a security presence in Tajikistan, the active search for a larger role in Afghanistan, and a greater say in the affairs of the broader sub-Himalayan region are only one part of the story.
    • Physical proximity multiplies China’s economic impact on the inner Asian regions.
    •  These leverages, in turn, were reinforced by a deepening alliance with Russia that straddles the Eurasian heartland. Russia’s intractable disputes with Europe and America have increased Moscow’s reliance on Beijing.
    • Amidst mounting challenges from China in the Indo-Pacific maritime domain, Washington has begun to rethink its strategic commitments to Eurasia. 
    • Whether defined as “burden-sharing” in Washington or “strategic autonomy” in Brussels, Europe must necessarily take on a larger regional Eurasian security role.
    • More broadly, regional powers are going to reshape Eurasia.

    What should be India’s approach to Eurasia

    • Like the Indo-Pacific, Eurasia is new to India’s strategic discourse.
    • To be sure, there are references to India’s ancient civilisational links with Eurasia.
    • While there are many elements to an Indian strategy towards Eurasia, three of them stand out.
    • Put Europe back into India’s continental calculus: As India now steps up its engagement with Europe, the time has come for it to begin a strategic conversation with Brussels on Eurasian security.
    • This will be a natural complement to the fledgling engagement between India and Europe on the Indo-Pacific.
    • India’s Eurasian policy must necessarily involve greater engagement with both the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
    • Intensify the dialogue on Eurasian security with Russia: While Indo-Russian differences on the Indo-Pacific, the Quad, China, and the Taliban are real, Delhi and Moscow have good reasons to narrow their differences on Afghanistan and widen cooperation on continental Eurasian security.
    • Indian collaboration with both Persia and Arabia: If Persia’s location makes it critical for the future of Afghanistan and Central Asia, the religious influence of Arabia and the weight of the Gulf capital are quite consequential in the region.
    • India’s partnerships with Persia and Arabia are also critical in overcoming Turkey’s alliance with Pakistan that is hostile to Delhi.

    Challenges

    • Contradictions: India will surely encounter many contradictions in each of the three areas — between and among America, Europe, Russia, China, Iran, and the Arab Gulf.
    • As in the Indo-Pacific, so in Eurasia, Delhi should not let these contradictions hold India back.

    Consider the question ” Eurasia involves the recalibration of India’s continental strategy. India has certainly dealt with Eurasia’s constituent spaces separately over the decades. What Delhi now needs is an integrated approach to Eurasia. In the context of this, examine the challenges in India’s engagement with Eurasia and suggest the elements that should form part of India’s strategy towards Eurasia.”

    Conclusion

    The current flux in Eurasian geopolitics will lessen some of the current contradictions and generate some new antinomies in the days ahead. The key for India lies in greater strategic activism that opens opportunities in all directions in Eurasia.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

     

  • How India’s Gati Shakti Plan can have an impact beyond its borders

    Context

    The Gati Shakti National Master Plan will have an important economic multiplier effect at home, it must also be leveraged to have an external impact by aligning it with India’s regional and global connectivity efforts.

    Main components of the Gati Shakti National Master Plan

    • The Gati Shakti plan has three main components, all focused on domestic coordination.
    • Increase information sharing: The plan seeks to increase information sharing with a new technology platform between various ministries at the Union and state levels.
    • Reduce logistics’ costs: It focuses on giving impetus to multi-modal transportation to reduce logistics’ costs and strengthen last-mile connectivity in India’s hinterland or border regions.
    • Analytical tool: The third component includes an analytical decision-making tool to disseminate project-related information and prioritise key infrastructure projects.
    • This aims to ensure transparency and time-bound commitments to investors.

    How Gati Shakti Plan can strengthen India’s economic ties with its neighbours

    • The plan will automatically generate positive effects to deepen India’s economic ties with Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, as well as with Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean region.
    • India’s investment in roads, ports, inland waterways or new customs procedures generate positive externalities for these neighbours, who are keen to access the growing Indian consumer market.
    • Any reduction in India’s domestic logistics costs brings immediate benefits to the northern neighbour, given that 98 per cent of Nepal’s total trade transits through India and about 65 per cent of Nepal’s trade is with India.
    • In 2019, trade between Bhutan and Bangladesh was eased through a new multimodal road and waterway link via Assam.
    • The new cargo ferry service with the Maldives, launched last year, has lowered the costs of trade for the island state.
    • And under the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Programme, India’s investments in multimodal connectivity on the eastern coast is reconnecting India with the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia through integrated rail, port and shipping systems.
    • Whether it is the alignment of a cross-border railway, the location of a border check post, or the digital system chosen for customs and immigration processes, India’s connectivity investments at home will have limited effects unless they are coordinated with those of its neighbours and other regional partners.
    • While India recently joined the Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) convention, which facilitates cross-border customs procedures, none of its neighbouring countries in the east has signed on to it.

    Suggestions for Gati Shakti Plan to have maximum external effect

    • First, India will have to deepen bilateral consultations with its neighbours to gauge their connectivity strategies and priorities.
    • Given political and security sensitivities, India will require diplomatic skills to reassure its neighbours and adapt to their pace and political economy context.
    • A second way is for India to work through regional institutions and platforms. SAARC’s ambitious regional integration plans of the 2000s are now defunct, so Delhi has shifted its geo-economic orientation eastwards.
    • The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) has got new momentum, but there is also progress on the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) Initiative.
    • Finally, India can also boost the Gati Shakti plan’s external impact by cooperating more closely with global players who are keen to support its strategic imperative to give the Indo-Pacific an economic connectivity dimension.
    • This includes the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, but also Japan, the US, Australia, EU and ASEAN.

    Conclusion

    Gati Shakti plan must also leveraged to have an external impact by aligning it with India’s regional and global connectivity efforts.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)