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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • Four geopolitical developments and a window of opportunity for India

    A number of important developments has taken place over the past several weeks. They may appear disconnected but in fact add up to a significant shift in regional and global geopolitics.

    Four major recent developments

    1. Withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan: The complete takeover of the country by the Taliban
    2. Significant domestic political changes in China: The ideological and regulatory assault against its dynamic private high-tech companies and now its real estate companies
    3. Announcement of the Australia-UK and US (AUKUS): It represents a major departure in US strategy by its commitment to enable Australia to join a handful of countries with nuclear submarines
    4. Convening of the Quad physical summit in Washington: A major step towards its formalisation as an influential grouping in the Indo-Pacific going beyond security

    Risks and opportunity for India

    These four developments, taken together, present India with both risks but also with opportunities.  In affirmation, one can conclude that the opportunities outweigh the risks.

    [A] Risks in Afghanistan

    • The Afghan situation is a setback for India in the short run.
    • The political capital and economic presence it had built up in the country over the past two decades has been substantially eroded.
    • The Taliban government is dominated by more hard-line and pro-Pakistani elements.
    • They will help deliver on the Pakistani agenda of preventing a revival of Indian diplomatic presence and developmental activity in Afghanistan.

    Future of Taliban

    • In the longer run, it seems unlikely that the Taliban will give up its obscurantist and extremist agenda.
    • This may lead to domestic inter-ethnic and sectarian conflict.
    • The unwillingness of the Taliban to cut its links with various jihadi groups, including those targeting Afghanistan’s neighbours, may revive regional and international fears over cross-border terrorism.

    How should India defer the Taliban?

    • India’s response should be to bide its time, strengthen its defences against an uptick in cross-border terrorism.
    • India can keep its faith with the ordinary people of Afghanistan, provide shelter to those who have sought refuge.
    • It can join in any international effort to deliver humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan.

    [B] Domestic political change in China

    • This is taking an ideological and populist direction.
    • The country’s vibrant private sector is being reined in while the State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) are back in a central role.
    • After the tech sector, it is the large real estate sector that is facing regulatory assault.

    Concerns for investors

    • This is leading to deepening concern among foreign investors, including those who have long been champions of long-term engagement with China.

    Opportunities for India

    • It is not coincidental that while in NYC, our PM had meetings with the CEOs of Blackstone and Qualcomm, both of which are heavily invested in China but are reconsidering their exposure there.
    • If India plays its cards well, this time round there could be significant capital and technology flows from the US, Japan and Europe diverted towards India because it offers scale comparable to China.
    • Since India has benign partnerships with the US, Japan and Europe, there are no political constraints on such flows.

    [C] AUKUS and QUAD

    • The AUKUS and progress made by the Quad serve to raise the level of deterrence against China.
    • It is useful since it has now become the core of the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy. China will be more focused on its activities.
    • The Quad now represents, from the Chinese perspective, a second order threat.

    Underlying opportunities

    • This offensive against China suits us since we are not ready to embrace a full-fledged military alliance which will constrain our room for manoeuvre.

    Why should India gauge these opportunities?

    • China has given up the expectation that it could unify Taiwan through peaceful and political means, including through closer economic integration.
    • It has lost its credibility after the recent crackdown on civil liberties in Hong Kong.
    • China may advance its forcible takeover of Taiwan before the AUKUS gets consolidated.
    • The nuclear submarines for Australia may not be built and deployed for several years.
    • We may, therefore, be entering a period of enhanced uncertainty and danger in the Indo-Pacific.

    India’s area for introspection

    • The constraints are policy unpredictability, regulatory rigidities and bureaucratic red tape in India.
    • Some of these issues are being addressed, such as dropping of retrospective taxation.
    • But there is still a long way to go.

    Way forward

    All these developments has heightened risk perception among international business and industry who have hitherto seen China as a huge commercial opportunity.

    • For India, some bold initiatives are required to take advantage of the window of opportunity that has opened.
    • It is a narrow window with a very short shelf life.
    • If grasped with both hands, then it could deliver double-digit growth for India for the next two or three decades.
    • This will shrink the asymmetry of power with China and expand India’s diplomatic options.

    Conclusion

    • India should not be caught off guard. Failure of deterrence in the Indo-Pacific will have consequences beyond the region and change the geopolitical context for India.
    • For now, let us focus on what we can do to advance India’s economic prospects, for which the times are unexpectedly more propitious.

     

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  • Flood management that cannot be watered down

    Over the years, many of Bihar’s districts have been facing serious challenges with recurrent and massive flooding.  It is the right time to look at some of the key aspects of India-Nepal flood management.

    Simultaneous floods in Bihar and Nepal

    • Some of Nepal’s biggest river systems originate in the Himalayan glaciers which then flow into India through Bihar.
    • During the monsoons, these river systems flood causing many problems for Bihar.
    • It is a necessity that there is process-driven coordination between the Centre and the Government of Bihar to handle the flooding in Nepal’s Terai and North Bihar (largely the Mithilanchal region).

    Which are those flooding rivers?

    • Nepal’s three biggest river systems—Kosi, Gandaki and Karnali—originate in the high mountain glaciers, flow through the country and then enter India through the state of Bihar.
    • During the monsoon season, these river systems often get flooded due to heavy rains/landslides in Nepal which create floods in India’s most flood prone state—Bihar.

    Bihar’s vulnerability

    • The history of floods in Bihar from 1998 to 2012 reveals how strong discharges of water due to heavy rains in the catchment areas of Nepal have created a strong pressure on the river embankments in India.
    • About 76 per cent of the population living in northern Bihar live under threat of floods due to these river systems and a total of 73.06 per cent of the total geographical area of Bihar is flood affected (mostly during the monsoon).

    Measures: Joint flood management program

    • As part of the long-term measures to address the problem of massive and recurrent floods in Bihar, the Joint Project Office (JPO), Biratnagar, was established in Nepal in August 2004.
    • It aimed to prepare a detailed project report to construct a high dam on the Nepal side (on the Kosi, Kamla and Bagmati rivers).

    Flaws: Yet to get effect

    • Despite the best efforts made by the Government of Bihar, the task remains unaccomplished even after 17 years.
    • The Government of Bihar has raised the matter at regular intervals for this.

    Who is the obstructionist? : Fault lies with Nepal

    • The Central Water Commission (CWC) has convened several meetings with Nepali Authorities.
    • However, what is evident is Nepal’s lack of prompt reciprocation.
    • India has long-standing water sharing issues with Nepal.

    What has been done so far?

    • As in the figures shared by Bihar, a total of four new flood protection works in the Gandak basin area were proposed before the floods of 2020.
    • There were proposed Barrage structures located in the border districts.

    Nepal’s reluctance

    • However, Nepal argues that many of the bund area falls into no man’s land along the open international border.
    • This is notwithstanding the fact that the embankment was built by India 30 years ago and there has not been any dispute regarding its maintenance all these years.

    What does this signify?

    • There is a need for India-Nepal collaboration for an efficiently operated barrage.
    • It is evident that Nepal’s attitude towards mutual issues (water sharing, flood control, etc.) has been short of collaboration, unlike in the past.

    Way forward

    • In the best spirit of friendship, Nepal and India should restart the water dialogue and come up with policies to safeguard the interests of all those who have been affected on both sides of the border.
    • It is time the two friendly countries come together and assess the factors that are causing unimaginable losses through flooding every year.
    • Optimisation of the infrastructure will be decisive in finding an alternative paradigm of flood management.
    • By controlling the flooding and using the water resources for common developmental uses such as hydroelectricity, irrigation and waterways, India-Nepal relations can be strengthened even further.
    • Moreover, it is also linked to how the Himalayan glaciers and the green cover are managed.

    Conclusion

    • Water resources are priceless assets.
    • Water cooperation should drive the next big India-Nepal dialogue, and despite the challenges, wisdom should prevail to turn the crisis into an opportunity, for the sake of development and environmental protection.

     

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  • What is Havana Syndrome?

    A US intelligence officer traveling with CIA director William Burns has reported symptoms of Havana Syndrome.

    What is Havana Syndrome?

    • Havana Syndrome refers to a set of mental health symptoms that are said to be experienced by US intelligence and embassy officials in various countries.
    • It typically involves symptoms such as hearing certain sounds without any outside noise being present, nausea, vertigo and headaches, memory loss and issues with balance.
    • As the name suggests, it traces its roots to Cuba.
    • In late 2016, US officials in embassy began experiencing sudden bursts of pressure in their brain followed by persistent headaches, feeling of disorientation and insomnia.

    How severe is it?

    • In 2018, at least three CIA officers working under diplomatic cover in Cuba had reported troubling sensations that seemed to leave serious injuries.
    • Some officers are being compulsorily retired for their inability to coherently discharge his duty and another needing a hearing aid.

    Has Havana Syndrome been reported anywhere else?

    • Since the Cuban incident, American intelligence and foreign affairs officials posted in various countries have reported symptoms of the syndrome.
    • In early 2018, similar accusations began to be made by US diplomats in China.
    • The US media has reported around 130 such attacks across the world including at Moscow in Russia, Poland, Georgia, Taiwan, Colombia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Austria, among others.

    What are the causes of Havana Syndrome?

    • No one is entirely sure. But it is speculated to be a “sonic attack”.
    • Medical examination of the victims began to suggest that the victims may have been subjected to high-powered microwaves that either damaged or interfered with the nervous system.
    • It was said to have built a pressure inside the brain that generated the feeling of a sound being heard.
    • Greater exposure to high-powered microwaves is said not only to interfere with the body’s sense of balance but also impact memory and cause permanent brain damage.
    • It is suspected that beams of high-powered microwaves are sent through a special gadget that Americans have begun calling “microwave weapon”.

    Who is doing this in India?

    • Sources in the Indian security establishment say they are not aware of any such weapon being in the possession of an Indian agency.
    • Even if there was one, it is unlikely the government would admit to having acquired such counter-espionage technology given the sensitive nature of intelligence work.

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  • Is there a role for India in divided AUKUS?

    Context

    France recalled its ambassadors to the US and Australia in a diplomatic slap intended to convey its anger over a deal forged in secrecy that saw Paris lose a multi billion dollar submarine contract.

    Depth and diversity of India’s relations

    • That Delhi today is a part of a difficult conversation between the US, UK, France, Europe, and Australia points to the growing depth and diversity of India’s relations with different parts of the West.
    • Popular and academic discourse on India’s foreign policy has been obsessed with the concept of “non-alignment” —was about keeping distance from the West as a whole.
    • India’s contemporary diplomacy, in contrast, takes a nuanced view of internal dynamics in the West, and recognises the political agency of individual states, and develops wide-ranging relationships with the Western nations.

    Relations with France

    • Paris has always taken an independent view of the world, while remaining within the broad framework of the American alliance.
    •  In the 1990s, Paris championed the construction of a multipolar world to constrain American “hyperpower” but India did not join it.
    • The last few years, however, have seen an intensification of India’s strategic engagement with France.
    • For example, India has overcome the earlier reluctance to work with France on Indian Ocean security.

    Engagement as collective and sub-region

    • The government has also stepped up on the political engagement with Europe as a collective as well as its sub-regions — from Baltics to the Balkans and from Iberia to Mitteleuropa.
    •  As India discovers that every European nation, from tiny Luxembourg to a rising Poland, has something to offer, Europe has become a thriving hub of India’s international relations.

    Relations with the UK

    • Due to the bitter colonial legacy, relations between India and UK have always been underdeveloped.
    • In the last couple of years, India has made a determined effort to build a new partnership with Britain, which is the fifth-largest economy in the world, a leading financial hub, a technological powerhouse, and punches well above its weight in global affairs.

    Relations with “Anglosphere”

    • India’s neglect of London also meant Delhi had no time for the “Anglosphere” that binds the UK to Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
    • Many had presumed that the Anglosphere was irrelevant — AUKUS, however, is a reminder that Anglo-Saxon political bonds endure.
    • Instead of treating the Anglosphere with scepticism, India has begun to vigorously engage with the “settler colonies” that have so much to offer India — from natural resources to higher education and critical technologies.
    • The UK and its settler colonies have long been the preferred destination for the Indian diaspora (besides the US).
    • Leveraging diaspora politics: While the diaspora tends to connect the domestic politics of the Anglosphere with that of India, Delhi is figuring out that the diaspora politics can be played both ways.

    Relations with Japan and Australia

    • The transformation of India’s relations with Australia has occurred despite entrenched scepticism in the foreign policy bureaucracy.
    • Finally, Japan has been a part of the West in the post-War era and Delhi’s relations with Tokyo have never been as rounded as they are today. They are also fellow members of the Quad.

    Way forward for India

    • This wide-ranging engagement with the West should help Delhi convey two important messages to its partners this week.
    • Not undermining the larger goal: India needs to remind France, Australia, the UK and US of the shared interests in securing the Indo-Pacific and the dangers of letting the current quarrel undermine that larger goal.
    • Effective deterrence in Indo-Pacific: The other is to highlight the region’s vast requirements for effective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific;
    • And that there is enough room for the US, UK, France, and Europe to collaborate with Indo-Pacific partners in overlapping coalitions to develop high technology and defence-industrial cooperation in all the areas highlighted by AUKUS — effective underwater capabilities to AI, quantum computing and cyber warfare.
    • Deeper cooperation: India’s interests lie in deeper strategic cooperation with France and Europe as well as the Quad and the Anglosphere.

    Conclusion

    India’s diverse relationships in the West must be deployed in full measure to prevent a split in the Indo-Pacific coalition.

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  • Hardly the India-China century

    Context

    Deng Xiaoping had told then-Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1988 that the 21st century would be “India and China’s century”, the current Chinese leadership has no patience for such pablum. They believe — indeed believe they know — that it is destined to be China’s century alone.

    The policy of side-stepping contentious issues and encouraging bilateral economic relations

    • There have always been political tensions, both over each country’s territorial claims over land controlled by the other, and China’s alliance with Pakistan, and India’s hospitality to the Dalai Lama.
    • But neither country had allowed these tensions to overwhelm them:
    • China had declared that the border dispute could be left to “future generations” to resolve.
    • India had endorsed the “One China” policy, refusing to support Tibetan secessionism while limiting official reverence for the Dalai Lama to his status as a spiritual leader.
    • India actions and statements have usually been designed not to provoke, but to relegate the border problem to the back burner while enabling trade relations with China (now worth close to $100 billion) to flourish.
    • India made it clear that it was unwilling to join in any United States-led “containment” of China.
    • From negligible levels till 1991, trade with China had grown to become one of India’s largest trading relationships. 
    • India engages with China diplomatically in the BRICS  as well as conducting annual summits of RIC (Russia-India-China).
    • India is an enthusiastic partner in the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank (NDB).
    • However, it has become increasingly apparent that the policy of side-stepping contentious issues and encouraging bilateral economic relations has played into Chinese hands.

    Chinese strategy in Galwan

    • In the Galwan clash, the Chinese troops seem to have been engaged in a tactical move to advance their positions along areas of the LAC that it covets, in order to threaten Indian positions and interdict patrols.
    • They are threatening India’s construction of roads, bridges and similar infrastructure on undisputed Indian territory, a belated effort to mirror similar Chinese efforts near the LAC in Tibet.
    • They have established a fixed presence in these areas well beyond China’s own ‘Claim Line’.
    • The objective seems to be to extend Chinese troop presence to the intersection of the Galwan river and the Shyok river, which would make the Galwan Valley off bounds to India.
    • The Chinese have constructed permanent structures in the area of their intrusion and issued statements claiming that sovereignty over the Galwan valley has “always belonged” to China.
    • Consolidation of LOC: China’s strategy seems to be to consolidate the LAC where it wants it, so that an eventual border settlement — that takes these new realities into account — will be in its favour.
    • Implications for India:  In the meantime, border incidents keep the Indians off-balance and demonstrate to the world that India is not capable of challenging China, let alone offering security to other nations.

    India’s options

    • India has reinforced its military assets on the LAC to prevent deeper incursions for now.
    • And hopes to press the Chinese to restore the status quo ante through either diplomatic or military means.
    • Chinese and Indian officials are currently engaged in diplomatic and military-to-military dialogue to ease tensions, but de-escalation has been stalled for months.
    • Economic options: India has responded with largely symbolic acts of economic retaliation.
    • India has also reimposed tighter limits on Chinese investment in projects such as railways, motorways, public-sector construction projects, and telecoms.

    Limits to India’s economic retaliation

    • India is far too dependent on China for vital imports — such as pharmaceuticals, and even the active ingredients to make them, automotive parts and microchips that many fear it will harm India if it acted too strongly against China.
    • Imports from China have become indispensable for India’s exports to the rest of the world.
    • Various manufacturing inputs, industrial equipment and components, and even some technological know-how come from China; eliminating them could have a seriously negative effect on India’s economic growth.
    • And there are limits to the effectiveness of any Indian retaliation: trade with China may seem substantial from an Indian perspective, but it only represents 3% of China’s exports.
    • Drastically reducing it would not be enough to deter Beijing or cause it to change its behaviour.

    Consider the question “State of India-China relationship hardly indicate the 21st Century being the “India and China’s century”. In light of this, examine the factors responsible for this and suggest the way forward for India.”

    Conclusion

    This range of considerations seems to leave only two strategic options. Playing second fiddle to an assertive China or aligning itself with a broader international coalition against Chinese ambitions. Since the first is indigestible for any democracy, is China de facto pushing India into doing something it has always resisted — allying with the West?

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  • Iran to allow nuclear surveillance under IAEA

    Iran has agreed to allow international inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to install new memory cards into surveillance cameras at its sensitive nuclear sites and to continue filming there, potentially averting a diplomatic showdown this week.

    Try this question from CSP 2020:

    Q.In India, why are some nuclear reactors kept under “IAEA Safeguards” while others are not?

    (a) Some use Uranium and others use thorium.

    (b) Some use imported uranium and others use domestic supplies.

    (c) Some are operated by foreign enterprises and others are operated by domestic enterprises.

    (d) Some are State- owned and others are privately-owned.

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”dgifruxlj2″ question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

    What is IAEA?

    • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is an international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for any military purpose, including nuclear weapons.
    • As the preeminent nuclear watchdog under the UN, the IAEA is entrusted with the task of upholding the principles of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970.
    • It was established as an autonomous organization on July 29, 1957, at the height of the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
    • Though established independently of the UN through its own international treaty, the agency reports to both the UN General Assembly and the UNSC.

    What are its safeguards?

    • Safeguards are activities by which the IAEA can verify that a State is living up to its international commitments not to use nuclear programs for nuclear weapons purposes.
    • Safeguards are based on assessments of the correctness and completeness of a State’s declared nuclear material and nuclear-related activities.
    • Verification measures include on-site inspections, visits, and ongoing monitoring and evaluation.

    Basically, two sets of measures are carried out in accordance with the type of safeguards agreements in force with a State.

    1. One set relates to verifying State reports of declared nuclear material and activities.
    2. Another set enables the IAEA not only to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material but also to provide assurances as to the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in a State.

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  • Two decades of 9/11

    Twenty years later, the 9/11 terror attacks look a lot less epochal than they seemed in the heat of the moment.

    Why was 9-11 a major breakthrough?

    • One major inference in the wake of 9/11 was about the power of non-state actors — demonstrated by al Qaeda’s massive surprise attack on the world’s lone superpower at its zenith.
    • Al Qaeda’s rise seemed to fit in with the age of economic globalization and the internet, which heralded the weakening of the state system and the arrival of a borderless world.
    • Two decades later, though, the system of nation-states looks quite robust after enduring the challenge from international terrorism.

    Implications of the attack

    • The state system adapted quickly to the disruptions created by 9/11.
    • There was much anxiety about terror groups gaining access to weapons of mass destruction or leveraging new digital technologies to increase their power over states.
    • The state system has succeeded in keeping nuclear weapons and material away from terrorists.
    • It has also become adept at using digital tools to counter extremism.
    • If 9/11 made air travel risky, the states quickly developed protocols to de-risk it.

    Humiliating end for the US everywhere

    • Marking the 20th anniversary of 9/11 days after the humiliating US retreat from Kabul and domestic turmoil might suggest that Al-Qaeda and its associates did succeed in ending America’s unipolar moment.
    • The choice of targets in the 9/11 attacks — the World Trade Center and the Pentagon — was not accidental.
    • They were designed to strike at the very heart of American capitalism and its famed military power.
    • American capitalism met its greatest threat not in 2001 but in the 2008 financial crisis that was triggered by the reckless ideology of deregulation.
    • America lost in Afghanistan and the Middle East because it over-determined the terror threat and put security approaches above political common sense.

    Today’s agenda for terror

    • And the ambition of the jihadists — who organized the 9/11 attacks, to destroy America has risen to a higher extent:
    1. To overthrow the Arab regimes
    2. Unleash a war with Israel
    3. Pit the believers against the infidels
    • To be sure, terrorist organizations and the religious extremism that inspires them to continue to be of concern.

    Age of ideological warfare

    • Sectarian schisms, ideological cleavages, internecine warfare, and the messiness of the real world have cooled the revolutionary ardor that the world was so afraid of after 9/11.
    • In the battle between states and non-states, the former have accumulated extraordinary powers in the name of fighting the latter.
    • All nations, including liberal democracies, have curtailed individual liberty by offering greater security against terrorism.
    • Abuse of state power has inevitably followed.

    Security narratives by the US since then

    • After 9/11, President George W Bush turned his attention to confronting an imagined “global axis of evil” — Iran, Iraq, and North Korea.
    • None of the three countries was involved in 9/11.
    • And the US rewarded Pakistan with billions of dollars in military and economic assistance that actively nurtured the Taliban and succeeded in bleeding and defeating the US in Afghanistan.

    Threats earned by the US

    • This blinded the US to an emerging challenger — China — on the horizon. Washington’s obsession with the Middle East gave Beijing two valuable decades to consolidate its rise without any hindrance.
    • Although America’s unipolar moment may have ended, the US will continue to remain the most powerful nation in the world, with the greatest capacity to shape the international system.

    What about the jihadist agenda for the Middle East?

    • The Islamist effort to destroy the Gulf kingdoms spluttered quite quickly as the Arab monarchs cracked down hard on the jihadi groups.
    • Many Arab states do not see al Qaeda and its offshoots as existential threats.
    • They worry more about other Muslim states like Turkey, Qatar, and Iran that seek to leverage Islam for geopolitical purposes.
    • These fears have pushed smaller Gulf kingdoms towards Israel and shattered the jihadi hope to trigger the final Islamic assault on the Jewish state.
    • Developments in China and Pakistan reinforce the proposition that politics among nation-states is more significant than the power of the transcendental religious forces.

    How did India Respond?

    • India has been facing the problem of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism since 1989.  Unfortunately, the USA and the UK sided with Pakistan during this time.
    • However, this changed after India’s 2nd nuclear test and the 9/11 attack in the USA. Though the USA continued to rely on Pakistan, it considered Pakistan as an unreliable partner. This was further proved when Osama bin Laden was found hiding in Pakistan.
    • Indian response to terror attacks had been that of “strategic restraint”.
    • It was limited to diplomatic actions. This was evident in attacks on the Indian Parliament (December 2001) and the Kaluchak massacre (May 2002).
    • However, now we witness that India has adopted a policy of imposing costs on Pakistan by striking across the border, e.g. Balalkot airstrikes.
    • This capacity of India has been built over its strong economy and strong global linkages. Despite the economic disaster of 1991, India emerged stronger after LPG reforms.

    Conclusion

    • The trans-national nature of the new terror groups is now countered by better border controls and greater international cooperation on law enforcement.
    • However, in the subcontinent, as elsewhere, violent religious extremism thrives only under state patronage.
    • The answers to the challenges presented by the return of the Taliban and the likely resurgence of jihadi terrorism are not in the religious domain but in changing the geopolitical calculus of Pakistan’s deep state.

    B2BASICS

    Violent Non-state actors

    • In international relations, violent non-state actors (VNSA), also known as non-state armed actors or non-state armed groups (NSAGs), are individuals and groups that are wholly or partly independent of governments and which threaten or use violence to achieve their goals.
    • VNSAs vary widely in their goals, size, and methods. They may include narcotics cartels, popular liberation movements, religious and ideological organizations, corporations (e.g. private military contractors), self-defence militia, and paramilitary groups established by state governments to further their interests.

  • The fall of Afghanistan, the fallout in West Asia

    Three weeks after they walked into Kabul without any resistance, the Taliban now has announced an interim Council of Ministers.

    Chord with Pakistan: Crowing of its puppets

    • Pakistan appears to have got its way. This government formation has tightly controlled the head of its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
    • Afghanistan’s acting PM is Mullah Hassan Akhund, a close associate of former Taliban founder Mullah Omar.
    • Abdul Ghani Baradar is his deputy, but again, this could be a token position.
    • Baradar had been arrested in 2010 by the Pakistanis for pursuing a dialogue with the Hamid Karzai government without Pakistani sanction and jailed for eight years.
    • Pakistan’s true proteges are Sirajuddin Haqqani, the acting interior minister, and Mohammed Yaqoob, the acting defence minister, a son of Mullah Omar, who is also close to Haqqani.

    The West Asian players

    Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran have been direct role-players in Afghan affairs for over 25 years.

    • Sheikhdom involvement: In the 1990s, the first two were supporters and sources of funding for the Taliban, while Iran was an antagonist. After 9/11, all three countries became deeply involved with the Taliban. Since 2005, the Gulf sheikhdoms have contributed millions of dollars to different Taliban leaders and factions.
    • Iran’s defiance of the US: Iran began a substantial engagement with various Taliban leaders from 2007 and provided funding, weapons, training and refuge when required. It wanted the Taliban to maintain pressure on the U.S. forces to ensure their speedy departure from the country.
    • Regional competition: In the 2010s, when the US began to engage with Iran on the nuclear issue, Saudi Arabia became more directly involved in Afghan matters to prevent Iran’s expanding influence among Taliban groups. Thus, besides Syria and Yemen, Iran and Saudi Arabia have also made Afghanistan an arena for their regional competitions.
    • Earliest acknowledgment of the Taliban: In 2012, Qatar, on U.S. request, allowed the Taliban to open an office in Doha as a venue for their dialogue with the Americans. This has made Qatar an influential player in Afghan affairs, with deep personal ties with several leaders, many of whom keep their families in Doha.

    Competitions for influence

    The low-key reactions of the Gulf countries to recent developments in Kabul reflect the uncertainties relating to the Taliban in power.

    Nature of the govt: Their ability to remain united, their policies relating to human rights, and, above all, whether the Taliban will again make their country a sanctuary for extremist groups.

    Fractionalization within terror groups: The country already has several thousand foreign fighters, whose ranks could swell with extremists coming in from Iraq and Syria, and threaten the security of all neighbouring states.

    Three sets of regional players are active in Afghanistan today:

    1. Pakistan-Saudi coalition: This has been the principal source of support for the Taliban-at-war. They would like to remain influential in the new order, but neither would like to see the Taliban revert to their practices of the 1990s that had justifiably appalled the global community.
    2. Turkey and Qatar: They represent the region’s Islamist coalition and, thus, share an ideological kinship with the Taliban. Both would like to see a moderate and inclusive administration.
    3. Iran: While many of its hardliners are overjoyed at the U.S. “defeat”, more reflective observers recall the earlier Taliban emirate which was viscerally hostile to Shias and Iran. Iran also sees itself as the guardian of the Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara minorities in the country.

    Options Available: The outlook for security

    Linking with Israel-Palestine Conflict: The region now has two options: one, an Israel-centric security order in which the Arab Gulf states would link themselves with Israel to confront Iran. This is being actively promoted by Israeli hawks since it would tie Israel with neighbouring Arab states without having to concede anything to meet Palestinian aspirations.

    Comprehensive regional security arrangement: The other option is more ambitious: The facilitators and guarantors of this security arrangement are likely to be China and Russia: over the last few years, both have built close relations with the major states of the region. i.e., Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    Consensus to ward away the US

    • The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states led by Saudi Arabia lifted the over three-year blockade of Qatar.
    • The discussions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and plans are in place for the next meetings.
    • Turkey has initiated diplomatic overtures towards Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
    • None of these initiatives involves the Americans.

    Conclusion: A new order is in making

    • These developments suggest that the germ of a new regional security order in West Asia is already sown in fertile ground.

    Way forward for India

    • The Indian policies are at a crossroads. Continued bandwagoning with the US makes no sense.
    • Indian diplomacy should harmonize with the regional capitals, including Beijing, which can be a natural ally on issues of terrorism.
    • The bottom line is that India’s vital interests remain to be secured.
    • Demonizing the Taliban can only be counterproductive.

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  •  How India and Germany can work together to tackle climate change?

    Both nations, India and Germany with innovative economies and many highly-trained people can tackle the climate challenge.

    India-Germany Relations: A backgrounder

    Freedom struggle: Subhas Chandra Bose, a prominent freedom fighter for Indian independence, made a determined effort to obtain India’s independence from Britain by seeking military assistance from the Axis powers. The Indische Legion was formed to serve as a liberation force for British-ruled India principally made up of Indian prisoners of war.

    Diplomacy: India maintained diplomatic relations with both West Germany and East Germany and supported their reunification in 1990. Contrary to France and the UK, Germany has no strategic footprint in Asia.

    Past contentions: Germany condemned India for liberating Goa from Portuguese rule in 1961 and supported Portugal’s dictatorial regime under Salazar against India. It was critical of India for intervening in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War.  It rejected India’s 1998 nuclear tests.

    Quest for UNSC: India and Germany both seek to become permanent members of the UNSC and have joined with Japan and Brazil to coordinate their efforts via the G4 collective.

    Cultural ties: Germany has supported education and cultural programs in India. Germany helped establish the IIT Madras after both governments signed an agreement in 1956 and increased its cooperation and supply of technology and resources over the decades to help expand the institution

    Trade and investment: Germany is India’s largest trading partner in Europe. Germany is the 8th largest foreign direct investor (FDI) in India.

    Common concerns

    • In South Asia and Europe, we have become used to extremely hot weather, flooding, dramatic depletion of groundwater tables, and drought.
    • The EU has adopted an ambitious Green Deal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and to decouple economic growth from the consumption of natural resources.

    Why the two?

    • India is one of few countries that looks set to deliver on the national goals it set itself as part of the Paris agreement.
    • Compared to other G20 countries, its per capita emissions are very low.
    • Germany recently adopted laws on reducing greenhouse gases more quickly, achieving climate neutrality by 2045 and stopping the use of coal for electricity production by 2038.

    Collaborated efforts to date

    • In 2015, India’s PM and Germany’s Federal Chancellor agreed to further strengthen the two countries’ strategic partnership.
    • On this basis, Germany and India have succeeded in building up a cooperation portfolio worth almost 12 billion euros.
    • Already, nine out of 10 measures support climate goals and SDGs together.

    Indo-German development cooperation focuses on three areas:

    1. Transition to renewable energies
    2. Sustainable urban development and
    3. Sustainable management of natural resources

    What does Germany have to offer?

    • As a pioneer of the energy transition, Germany is offering knowledge, technology transfer, and financial solutions.
    • The pandemic has shown global supply chains are vulnerable.
    • Yet, when it comes to agriculture and natural resources, there are smart solutions that are being tested in India and Germany for more self-reliance, including agroecological approaches and sustainable management of forests, soils, and water.
    • Experience in India has shown that these methods also boost incomes for the local population and make them less dependent on expensive fertilizers, pesticides and seeds.

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  • Sri Lanka’s economic crisis poses challenges for India

    Context

    On 31 August 2021, Sri Lanka declared a state of economic emergency, as it is running out of foreign exchange reserves for essential imports like food.

    Economic cooperation with Sri Lanka

    • India is Sri Lanka’s third-largest export destination, after the US and UK.
    • More than 60% of Sri Lanka’s exports enjoy the benefits of the India-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement, which came into effect in March 2000.
    •  India is also a major investor in Sri Lanka.
    •  Foreign direct investment (FDI) from India amounted to around $ 1.7 billion over the years from 2005 to 2019.
    • Concessional financing of about $ 2 billion has been provided to Sri Lanka through various Indian government-supported Lines of Credit across sectors like railways, infrastructure and security.
    • India’s development partnership with Sri Lanka has always been demand-driven, with projects covering social infrastructure like education, health, housing etc.
    • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had signed a currency-swap agreement with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) under the Saarc Currency Swap Framework 2019-22.

    Factors responsible for economic emergency in Sri Lanka

    • Tourism: Tourism, a big dollar earner for Sri Lanka, has suffered since the Easter Sunday terror attacks of 2019, followed by the pandemic.
    • Declining FDI: Earnings fell from $3.6 billion in 2019 to $0.7 billion in 2020, even as FDI inflows halved from $1.2 billion to $670 million over the same period.
    • Debt distress: Its public debt-to-GDP ratio was at 109.7% in 2020, and its gross financing needs remain high at 18% of GDP, higher than most of its emerging economy peers.
    •  The external debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 62% in 2020 and is predominantly owed by its public sector.
    • More than $2.7 billion of foreign currency debt will be due in the next two years.

    How economic crisis may push Sri Lanka to align its policies with China

    • Reliance on Chinese credit: Sri Lanka has increasingly relied on Chinese credit to address its foreign debt burden.
    • Unable to service its debt, in 2017, Sri Lanka lost the unviable Hambantota port to China for a 99-year lease.
    • Increasing bilateral trade: China’s exports to Sri Lanka surpassed those of India in 2020 and stood at $3.8 billion (India’s exports were $3.2 billion).
    • Strategic investment by China: Owing to Sri Lanka’s strategic location at the intersection of major shipping routes, China has heavily invested in its infrastructure (estimated at $12 billion between 2006 and 2019).
    • In May, Sri Lanka passed the Colombo Port City Economic Commission Act, which provides for establishing a special economic zone around the port and also a new economic commission, to be funded by China.

    Implications for India

    • Relations between India and Sri Lanka seem to have plummeted since the beginning of this year.
    • In February, Sri Lanka backed out from a tripartite partnership with India and Japan for its East Container Terminal Project at the Colombo Port, citing domestic issues.
    • Sri Lanka’s economic crisis may further push it to align its policies with Beijing’s interests.
    • India is already on a diplomatic tightrope with Afghanistan and Myanmar.
    • Other South Asian nations like Bangladesh, Nepal and the Maldives have also been turning to China to finance large-scale infrastructure projects.

    Way forward

    • Nurturing the Neighbourhood First policy with Sri Lanka will be important for India.
    • Explore possibility through regional platforms: The BIMSTEC and the Indian Ocean Rim Association could be leveraged to foster cooperation in common areas of interest like technology-driven agriculture and marine sector, IT, renewable energy, and transport and connectivity.
    • Cooperation on private sector investment: Both countries could also cooperate on enhancing private sector investments to create economic resilience.

    Consider the question “How economic troubles in Sri Lanka could impact India? Suggest the way forward.”

    Conclusion

    With its economy in deep trouble, Sri Lanka may get further pushed towards China, India has to deliver on its Neighbourhood First policy to protects itself from the adverse fallout.

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