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Subject: International Relations

  • Places in news: Second Thomas Shoal

    In the news

    • Recently Philippines and China Coast Guard collided with each other near the Second Thomas Shoal of the Spratly Islands in South China Sea.

    About Second Thomas Shoal

    • It is located approximately 105 nautical miles (195 km) west of Palawan, Philippines.
    • It lies within the Philippines’ EEZ (exclusive economic zone).
    • The shoal is part of the Spratly Islands, which are subject to overlapping territorial claims by multiple countries, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Taiwan.
    • It is strategically significant due to its location in the South China Sea, a major maritime trade route rich in natural resources.
    Note: An Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is an area of the ocean, generally extending 200 nautical miles (230 miles/370.15 km) beyond a nation’s territorial sea, within which a coastal nation has jurisdiction over both living and non-living resources.

     What is the South China Sea Dispute?

    • It is a dispute over territory and sovereignty over ocean areas, and the Paracels and the Spratlys – two island chains claimed in whole or in part by a number of countries.
    • China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei all have competing claims.
    • Alongside the fully-fledged islands, there are dozens of rocky outcrops, atolls, sandbanks, and reefs, such as the Scarborough Shoal.
    • China claims by far the largest portion of territory – an area defined by the “nine-dash line” which stretches hundreds of miles south and east from its most southerly province of Hainan.
    • Beijing says its right to the area goes hundreds of centuries to when the Paracel and Spratly island chains were regarded as integral parts of the Chinese nation.
    • It showed the two island groups falling entirely within its territory. Those claims are mirrored by Taiwan.

    Spat over Chinese claims

    • China has backed its expansive claims with island-building and naval patrols.
    • The US says it does not take sides in territorial disputes but has sent military ships and planes near disputed islands, calling them “freedom of navigation” operations to ensure access to key shipping and air routes.
    • Both sides have accused each other of “militarizing” the South China Sea.
    • There are fears that the area is becoming a flashpoint, with potentially serious global consequences.

    Try this PYQ from CSE Prelims 2011:

    Q.Southeast Asia has captivated the attention of global community’ over space and time as a geostrategically significant region. Which among the following is the most convincing explanation for this global perspective?

    (a) It was the hot theatre during the Second World War

    (b) Its location between the Asian powers of China and India

    (c) It was the arena of superpower confrontation during the Cold War period

    (d) Its location between the Pacific and Indian oceans and its pre-eminent maritime character

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”mjythkywde” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

  • Tamil Nadu Fishermen’s Plight over Katchatheevu Island

    In the news

    • Frustrated by the continuous actions against them by Sri Lankan authorities, Tamil Nadu fishermen announced an indefinite strike starting February 17, disrupting their daily activities.
    • The fishermen’s protest led to an unprecedented decision to abstain from the annual St. Antony’s Church festival at Katchatheevu, a significant event symbolizing their fishing rights.

    Katchatheevu Island: Historical Background

    • Colonial Influence: Katchatheevu, a 285-acre island, has its origins in a 14-century volcanic eruption. It was historically under the control of the Jaffna kingdom in Sri Lanka and later the Ramnad Zamindari in India.
    • British-Era Claims: Both India and Sri Lanka claimed Katchatheevu in the early 20th century to establish fishing boundaries. The ownership dispute continued even during the British Raj.

    1974 Indo-Sri Lankan Maritime Agreement

    • Landmark Decision: Indira Gandhi’s government decided to cede Katchatheevu to Sri Lanka as part of the 1974 agreement, aiming to establish maritime borders.
    • Political Implications: The decision raised concerns in Tamil Nadu, where voices protested the lack of state assembly consultation and the impact on traditional fishing rights.
    • Fishing Ambiguity: The agreement allowed Indian fishermen access to Katchatheevu “hitherto,” but fishing rights remained ambiguous, leading to disputes.

    Sri Lankan Civil War and Beyond

    • Civil War Dynamics: The Sri Lankan civil war (1983-2009) shifted focus from the Katchatheevu issue as Sri Lanka’s naval forces grappled with internal strife.
    • Post-War Reality: Post the civil war, Sri Lanka reinforced maritime defense, leading to the arrest of Indian fishermen venturing into their waters, reigniting demands for Katchatheevu’s retrieval.

    Tamil Nadu’s Persistent Concerns

    • Political Backlash: Tamil Nadu politicians across parties raised objections against ceding Katchatheevu without state assembly consent, citing historical ties and livelihood impacts.
    • Legal Battles: Late J Jayalalitha’s AIADMK filed petitions challenging the 1974 agreement, arguing it affected traditional fishing rights. However, the Union government’s stance remained unaltered.
    • Government’s Position: Despite vocal demands from Tamil politicians, the Modi government maintained that the island’s status was finalized in 1974 and reclaiming it would require drastic measures.

    Contemporary Implications

    • Symbol of Sovereignty: Katchatheevu symbolizes regional and sovereignty concerns, reflecting tensions between Tamil Nadu’s interests and central government decisions.
    • Geopolitical Dilemma: The case highlights the delicate balance between historical claims, political sentiments, and international agreements in the context of bilateral relations.

    Conclusion

    • The island of Katchatheevu continues to serve as a reminder of India’s historical intricacies, reflecting the delicate balancing act between state interests, national decisions, and regional aspirations.
    • While Tamil Nadu’s calls for retrieval echo in the political corridors, the longstanding 1974 agreement and subsequent geopolitical realities create a complex landscape.
    • As the island’s fate intertwines with broader diplomatic relations, Katchatheevu remains a testament to the complexities of national sovereignty and regional sentiment.
  • Ensure Pakistan does not divert loans to foot defence bills: India to IMF

    Ensure Pakistan does not divert loans to foot defence bills: India to IMF

    Why in the News?

    India stresses the need for stringent monitoring during a recent review of the loan to Pakistan when the new PM Shehbaz Sharif seeking additional funding support from the IMF.

    Background:

    • Taking a tough stance, India has batted for “stringent monitoring” of any emergency funds provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to Pakistan, stressing that such funds must not be redeployed towards defense bills or repayment of loans from other countries.
    • India’s position was put across to the IMF’s executive board during a recent review of an ongoing $3 billion short-term Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) granted to Pakistan by the Fund.

    About International Monetary Fund (IMF):

    • The IMF works to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity for all of its 190 member countries.
    • It does so by supporting economic policies that promote financial stability and monetary cooperation, which are essential to increase productivity, job creation, and economic well-being.
    • The IMF is governed by and accountable to its member countries.

    Aims and Objectives:

    • Furthering international monetary cooperation;
    • Encouraging the expansion of trade and economic growth;
    • Discouraging policies that would harm prosperity.

    Functions of IMF:

    • Policy Advice: As part of this process, which takes place at the global and regional levels, the IMF identifies potential risks and recommends appropriate policy adjustments to sustain economic growth and promote financial stability.
    • Financial Advice: The IMF provides financial support to countries hit by crises to create breathing room as they implement policies that restore economic stability and growth. It also provides precautionary financing to help prevent crises. IMF lending is continuously refined to meet countries’ changing needs. The causes of crises can be domestic, external, or both.
      • Domestic factors include inappropriate fiscal and monetary policies, which can lead to large current account and fiscal deficits and high public debt levels; an exchange rate fixed at an inappropriate level, which can erode competitiveness and result in the loss of official reserves, and a weak financial system. Political instability and weak institutions also can trigger crises.
      • External factors include shocks ranging from natural disasters to large swings in commodity prices. With globalization, sudden changes in market sentiment can result in capital flow volatility. Both are common causes of crises, especially for low-income countries.

    Significance of IMF monitoring:

    • Essential in identifying risks that may require remedial policy adjustments.
    • International cooperation on these efforts is critical in today’s globally integrated economy, in which the problems or policies of one country can affect many others.
    • Focuses on individual countries or bilateral surveillance, and the global economy or multilateral surveillance.

    Conclusion: There is uncertainty around Pakistan’s ability to quickly negotiate a new IMF program after the current one expires in April 2024 remains very high. Pakistan’s government liquidity and external vulnerability risks will remain very high until there is clarity on a credible longer-term financing plan

  • [5 March 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: The quick transformation of Russia-North Korea ties

    [5 March 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: The quick transformation of Russia-North Korea ties

    PYQ Relevance:

    Prelims:
    With reference to the ‘Trans-Pacific Partnership’, consider the following statements:
    1. It is an agreement among all the Pacific Rim countries except China and Russia.
    2. It is a strategic alliance for the purpose of maritime security only.
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (UPSC CSE 2016)
    a) 1 only
    b) 2 only
    c) Both 1 and 2
    d) Neither 1 nor 2

    Mains:
    1. “The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of China, which is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain. (UPSC CSE 2021)

    2. What is the significance of Indo-US defense deals over Indo-Russian defense deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (UPSC CSE 2020)

    Note4Students:

    Mains: Geopolitical and challenges over the Globe;

    Prelims: International Relations; Major Powers;

    Mentor comments: Russia and North Korea relationship has been strengthening since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with both countries preparing for a summit between their leaders in 2024. Both countries share common challenges and strategic objectives. With Indian perspective, we need to be aware as these recent changes can lead to the beginning of a trio, Russia-North Korea-China, in the Asian continent.

    Let’s learn.

    Why in the News?

    Recently, the strengthening of Russia and North Korea ties can be a challenging geo-political factor through Global security.

    Context:

    • Recently, since the Russia-Ukraine war, North Korea and Russia have been discussing cooperation in sensitive areas.
    • They are exploring energy collaboration and have been engaged in infrastructure projects. The partnership has far-reaching implications for regional stability and global geopolitics.

    Common Challenges and shared strategic objectives between both Countries:

    • Energy collaboration: Energy collaboration has also formed another crucial aspect of the partnership. Russia has been a key supplier of fuel to North Korea.
      • Moscow needs arms, artillery, rockets, and missiles to sustain its invasion of Ukraine while Pyongyang is in dire need of commodities and food.  Therefore the mainstay of bilateral cooperation is the food-for-arms agreement.
      • This has raised concerns about the potential for increased belligerence on the part of Pyongyang, which could destabilize the Korean Peninsula and East Asia.
    • Resource cooperation: Russia has emerged as a potential savior for North Korean development in sectors such as energy and transportation, and even in addressing Pyongyang’s chronic food shortages.
    • Infrastructure cooperation: Infrastructure projects such as the Rajin-Khasan railway linking Russia to North Korea’s Rajin port, have bolstered economic cooperation.

    How does this relationship have far-reaching Implications for Regional Stability and Geopolitics?

    • The American factor: The strain in relations with Western countries has led Russia and North Korea to adjust their foreign policy priorities. Russia sees engagement with North Korea as a way to influence security dynamics in Northeast Asia, particularly concerning the US and its allies.
      • For example, The North Korean Foreign Minister in October 2023 observed that powerful ties between Moscow and Pyongyang could potentially offset the US-led efforts of a strong alliance between Washington (US), Tokyo (Japan), and Seoul (S. Korea).
    • The China factor: Russia, often in diplomatic collaboration with China, underscores a desire to shape regional security architecture independently of Western influence.
      • In Feb 2024, the US imposed sanctions on the producer of the car against Russia. The sanctions and trade restrictions also targeted Chinese firms that the U.S. said were assisting Russia’s war.

    What does it mean for the world? (Way Forward)

    • Need for Western strategy: The West’s strategic goals in the Ukraine war involve rationalizing with Russia, supporting democracy, and reconstructing Ukraine post-war.
    • Need for Trans-Atlantic alliance: While Russia has endured casualties and the long-term effects of sanctions, China has remained relatively unscathed. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the need for broader support beyond the trans-Atlantic alliance, including major economies like India.
    • Abiding by the Global South: Involving the Global South in Ukraine’s reconstruction and sanctions against Russia is seen as crucial for shaping postwar geopolitics.
    Practice Question:
    Russia- North Korea’s deepening ties are based on common challenges and shared strategic objectives. In the light of the above statement, discuss its far-reaching implication on global geo-politics.

    Approach for the Answer:

    1. Introduction: 
    Theme:  Russia-North korea Deepening ties

    2. Body:
    Demand 1: Common challenges and shared objectives of their deepening ties
    Demand 2: Implication on global geopolitics of their deepening ties

    3. Way Forward:
    Give suggestions to address the negative implications of their ties on global geo-politics.

    References:

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-quick-transformation-of-russia-north-korea-ties/article67914078.ece

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/a-timeline-of-the-complicated-relations-between-russia-and-north-korea/article67298589.ece

    https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2023/the-surge-of-activity-in-relations-between-north-korea-and-russia/

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/russia-ukraine-war-change-in-global-power-dynamics/article67882861.ece

    https://www.voanews.com/a/us-china-discuss-russia-north-korea-cooperation-says-state-department/7500184.html

  • India seizes Dual-Use Items bound for Pakistan from China

    In the news

    • Indian customs officials at Mumbai Port seized two advanced Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines manufactured by GKD, Italy, en route to the port of Karachi from China.
    • The CNC machines, critical for manufacturing parts utilized in Pakistan’s missile development program, were destined for Karachi.

    What are Dual-Use Items?

    • Definition: Dual-use items refer to commodities that possess the potential for application in both civilian and military contexts.
    • Regulatory Scrutiny: These items are subject to stringent regulation due to their capability to be initially designed for civilian purposes but later repurposed for military or even terrorist activities.
    • Examples: Examples of dual-use items include global positioning satellites, missiles, nuclear technology, chemical and biological weapons, night vision technology, drones, precision-engineered aluminium pipes, and specific types of ball bearings.

    Global Control Mechanisms for Dual-Use Items

    (1) Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR):

    • Established: In 1987 by G-7 countries.
    • Purpose: To limit the proliferation of missiles capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction.
    • Membership: Consists of 35 member countries.
    • Guidelines: Members coordinate national export controls to prevent missile proliferation.
    • India’s Membership: India became the 35th member in 2016.

    (2) Wassenaar Arrangement (WA):

    • Established: In 1996 with 42 participating states.
    • Purpose: Prevent destabilizing accumulations of conventional arms and dual-use goods and technologies.
    • Export Controls: Member countries apply controls on listed items to avoid enhancing military capabilities.
    • India not a member: It it has expressed interest in joining to strengthen its export controls and enhance its non-proliferation efforts.

    (3) Australia Group (AG):

    • Formation: Prompted by Iraq’s use of chemical weapons in 1985.
    • Focus: Initially on chemical weapons precursor chemicals, expanded to include biological weapons prevention.
    • Membership: Composed of 42 member countries. India is NOT a member.
    • Objective: Harmonization of international export controls on chemical and biological technologies.

    (4) Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG):

    • Established: In 1974 in response to India’s nuclear tests.
    • Purpose: Control nuclear and nuclear-related technology to prevent proliferation.
    • Membership: Consists of 48 participating governments.
    • Guidelines: Aim to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons through control measures.

    [Note: India is also party to key conventions such as the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention (BWC).]

    India’s in-house mechanisms against Dual-Use Items

    • Role of DGFT: The Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) in India oversees the regulation of dual-use items through the SCOMET list (Specialty Chemicals, Organisms, Materials, Equipment, and Technologies).
    • SCOMET List: SCOMET items encompass special chemicals, organisms, materials, equipment, and technologies with dual-use potential.
    • Regulatory Framework: Exporting SCOMET items is subject to strict regulations, either requiring a license or being prohibited altogether.
    • Alignment with International Controls: The SCOMET control list aligns with the control lists of various multilateral export control regimes and conventions.
  • The Hindu Op-ed: Change and continuity in India’s Palestine policy

    The Hindu Op-ed: Change and continuity in India’s Palestine policy

    PYQ Relevance:

    Prelims:
    The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events is related to: (2015)
    a)      Central Asia
    b)      Middle East
    c)       South-East Asia
    d)      Central Africa

    Mains: 

    1. The question of India’s Energy Security constitutes the most important part of India’s economic progress. Analyze India’s energy policy cooperation with West Asian Countries. (2017)

    2. “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (2018))

    Note4Students:

    Mains: International issues; India-West Asia; 

    Prelims: Two-state solution; Israel-Palestine;

    Mentor comments: India has historically supported Palestine while also developing ties with Israel. Prime Minister Modi expressed solidarity with Israel after a Hamas attack but India’s stance on Palestine remains balanced. Over the years, India’s policy towards Palestine has evolved, recognizing Israel in 1950 but supporting a two-state solution. Recent UN votes show India’s continued support for Palestine despite abstaining from some resolutions. What are those?

    Let’s Learn.

    Why in the News?

    The strategic implications of recent events in West Asia have influenced India’s Foreign Policy towards Israel and Palestine, emphasizing the importance of stability and resolution in West Asia.

    Background: India’s historical policy towards Palestine:

    India’s solidarity with Palestine was rooted in anti-colonial and non-aligned principles, aligning with Arab states and advocating for Palestinian statehood. 

    • In 1947: Initially, India strongly supported the Palestinian cause, voting against the partition of Palestine and recognizing the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) as the legitimate representative of Palestinians. 

    • In 1992: Despite recognizing Israel in 1950, India did not establish full diplomatic relations until 1992.

    • In 2003: India co-sponsored the draft resolution on “the right of Palestinians to self-determination” and voted in favor of it during the 53rd session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). India also voted in favour of the UNGA Resolution in October 2003 against construction of the Separation Wall by Israel.

    • In 2011:  India voted in favor of including Palestine as a full member of UNESCO. 

    • India has further strengthened ties with Israel, marking a strategic shift towards closer relations. This shift is driven by structural imperatives like independent foreign policy, strategic goals, and counterterrorism efforts especially in defense and trade.

    Paradigm shift of India’s policy towards Palestine:

    While India has maintained its support for the Palestinian cause, it has also deepened its ties with Israel, particularly in defense and trade. 

    • In 1950: India recognized Israel in 1950 but did not establish full diplomatic relations until 1992. Since then, bilateral ties have grown significantly, with India becoming Israel’s top market for defense exports. 
    • In 2017-18: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has been more public in its engagement with Israel, with Modi being the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel in 2017 and the first to visit Ramallah in 2018. 
    • In 2023: Barely three weeks after the Hamas attack, India abstained from a vote at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) that called for an “immediate, durable and sustainable humanitarian truce” in Gaza. 

    While India maintains support for a two-state solution and Palestinian rights, its alignment with Israel reflects a nuanced balancing act influenced by changing geopolitical dynamics and national interests. India has also faced criticism for its perceived shift towards Israel.

    Balancing the approach of India at UNGA after the terror attack:

    • Recognizing Palestinian rights: India supported resolutions affirming Palestine by condemning Israeli settlements in Palestine, expressing concern over Israel’s occupation of Golan Heights, and calling for a humanitarian ceasefire. It was neither a strong moral critic, like Brazil or South Africa, of the way Israel is conducting the war, nor a mute spectator or enabler of Israel, like the United States or the United Kingdom.
    • Supporting Two-state solution: This stance reflects India’s commitment to a two-state solution and a balanced approach in addressing the complexities of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Despite growing ties with Israel in defense and trade, India maintains support for Palestinian statehood while strategically engaging with Israel.

    What is the present Scenario and Indian Interests considering the present context?

    • Being Leader for Global South: India’s support for Palestine is rooted in National interests, including the humanitarian crises in Gaza and the need to maintain its reputation as a leader in the Global South.
    • Reflecting towards its commitment: India’s criticism of Israel’s action and its support for a two-state solution reflect its commitment to international law and stability in the Global south region.
      • The strategic implications of recent events in the region, such as the Abraham Accords and the crises in Gaza, have influenced India’s Foreign policy towards Israel and Palestine, emphasizing the importance of stability and resolution in West Asia.

    Way Forward

    Supporting a two-state solution requires ending violence, promoting dialogue, condemning settlements, and upholding Palestinian self-determination. India aligns with this approach, emphasizing diplomacy over conflict. In contrast, the U.S., despite claiming support for a two-state solution, votes against relevant UN resolutions and fails to endorse ceasefire calls.

    References:

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/change-and-continuity-in-indias-palestine-policy/article67904383.ece

    https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Bilateral_Brief-Sept_2019.pdf

    https://thediplomat.com/2023/11/india-once-was-a-strong-ally-of-palestine-what-changed/

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    References: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-economic-case-for-investing-in-indias-children/article67896821.ece

  • PM inaugurates Naval Base and Airstrip in Agalega Island, Mauritius

    Agalega Island

    In the news

    • PM Modi in collaboration with his Mauritian counterpart Pravind Jugnauth, inaugurated a series of projects on Mauritius’ Agalega Island.

    Agalega Island: A Strategic Location

    • Agaléga are two outer islands of Mauritius located in the Indian Ocean, about 1,000 kilometers north of Mauritius island.
    • The islands have a total area of 2,600 ha (6,400 acres).
    • Notable settlements include Vingt Cinq on the North Island and Sainte Rita on the South Island, serving as primary hubs for residents and economic activities.

    Significance of New Airstrip and the Base

    • India’s Strategic Presence: The inauguration of a new airstrip and jetty underscores India’s commitment to strengthening its influence in the southwestern Indian Ocean, aligning with its broader strategic objectives.
    • Economic Impetus: Agalega Island’s strategic location facilitates trade and connectivity in the Indian Ocean region, enhancing economic opportunities for Mauritius and neighboring countries.
    • Trade Security: With a significant portion of India’s trade traversing the Indian Ocean, the development of infrastructure on Agalega Island contributes to safeguarding trade routes and ensuring maritime security.

    Benefits for Mauritius

    • Developmental support: Historically a slave plantation, North Agalega Island reflects the legacy of colonial exploitation, with its main town, Vingt Cinq, evoking the brutality of slavery.
    • Strategic boost: India’s development initiatives aim to ameliorate conditions for the island’s inhabitants, alongside bolstering Mauritian Defence Force operations.

    India’s Strategic Imperative

    • Counterbalancing Chinese Influence: India’s developmental endeavors on Agalega Island serve as a proactive measure to counter China’s expanding ‘String of Pearls’ strategy, safeguarding its regional interests and sovereignty.
    • Enhanced Security Infrastructure: By upgrading security infrastructure, including facilities for surveillance and monitoring, Mauritius strengthens its security apparatus, contributing to overall regional stability and resilience.
    • Regional Cooperation: The projects on Agalega Island are aligned with India’s Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) policy initiative, aimed at fostering regional development and security cooperation among Indian Ocean Rim countries.

  • Rediscovering Palestinian statehood

    Israel-Palestine: No Simple Answers

    Why in the News?

    Recently, there are evolving dynamics surrounding Palestinian statehood, including global perspectives, Israeli leadership positions, and the potential implications for the region w.r.t two-state solution.

    What are the Global Dynamics and Israeli Opposition towards Palestinian Statehood?

    • Global Expectations: Western nations and Arab States are hopeful for Israel to act sensibly amidst the challenging situation in Gaza. The UK and France express readiness to recognize a Palestinian state independently of an agreement with Israel, prompting speculation about US involvement.
    • Israeli stance: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu openly opposes a two-state solution and advocates for Israeli control over the entire area west of the Jordan River.
      • Netanyahu rejects international pressure and warns against unilateral recognition, citing concerns about terrorism and his political standing.
      • Netanyahu’s opposition to a Palestinian state without negotiations reflects his political strategy and the challenges within his ruling coalition.
      • Netanyahu’s plan echoes sentiments previously condemned when expressed by Hamas, raising concerns about Israel’s intentions.

    Global Response to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

    • UN Secretary-General’s Call: UN emphasizes the importance of acknowledging Palestinian statehood and condemns the loss of life in Gaza.
    • Hearings at ICJ: The International Court of Justice began hearing arguments concerning the legal status of a Palestinian state.
    • Mixed Signals: The U.S.’s support for Israel’s security contradicts its calls for a two-state solution, as demonstrated by voting against a UN resolution regarding Israeli settlements. World leaders previously have largely neglected the Palestinian cause during the tenure of former Israeli PM Netanyahu and post-Abraham Accords era.
    • Sudden Interest from various Nations: Recently, there has been renewed interest in a two-state solution following Israel’s military actions in Gaza and increasing pressure from international bodies. The U.S. too have imposed sanctions on individual settlers rather than addressing broader issues related to settlements and violence.
    • Domestic Pressures: King Abdullah II of Jordan, along with Egypt, France, and Germany, issued a joint statement opposing Israel’s annexation plans. The U.S., EU, and Arab States face mounting pressure to address the crisis, hoping for positive changes within Israel’s leadership.
      • Saudi Demand: Saudi Arabia demands an immediate peace process for a Palestinian state before resuming normalization talks with Israel.
      • Threatening Proposal: Israel’s latest plan suggests dissolving the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which would compromise the two-state solution
    BEYOND EDITORIAL: 

    What are Abraham Accords?

    • The Abraham Accords, established in September 2020, represent a series of bilateral agreements aimed at normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations: the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. 
    • These agreements marked a departure from traditional Arab League policies, which historically required resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict before establishing formal ties with Israel.

    How Abraham Accords have influenced the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

    Despite not directly involving parties in active conflict, the Abraham Accords have influenced the broader context in several ways:

    • Normalization without Resolution: The Accords sidestepped the Palestinian issue, allowing Arab states to establish normalized relationships with Israel without addressing core issues like Palestinian self-determination and statehood
    • Domestic Repercussions: The Accords led to internal conflicts within Arab societies, as some citizens felt betrayed by their leadership’s decision to prioritize normalization over Palestinian rights
    • Regional Stability: While the Accords were promoted as increasing stability, critics argue that they have done little to address underlying causes of instability, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict itself

    Critical Analysis of Accords towards the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:

    • Critics argue that the Accords have failed to bring lasting peace or stability, instead serving as a means of authoritarian conflict management that ignores the root causes of the conflict
    • Supporters contend that the Accords offer opportunities for cooperation and economic growth, although these benefits may come at the expense of Palestinian rights.
    • The Abraham Accords have altered the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by shifting focus away from the centrality of Palestinian rights and towards normalization between Israel and select Arab states. Despite initial optimism, the Accords have faced challenges in achieving sustainable peace and stability, and their success remains a subject of debate.

    What is the feasibility of a Single-State Solution?

    If the two-state solution fails given recent developments and Israeli leadership positions, then:

    • Equal Rights: In a single-state scenario, Israel must provide equal rights to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza to remain a democracy. Providing equal rights would reduce the percentage of Jews below 50%, challenging Israel’s identity as a Jewish state.
    • Apartheid or Ethnic Cleansing: Without equal rights, Palestinians risk becoming second-class citizens, resulting in either apartheid or ethnic cleansing.
    • Preservation of Status Quo: Continuing the present conditions would perpetuate the occupation and deny Palestinians self-determination.
    • Driving Out Palestinians: An alternative to providing equal rights might involve expelling Palestinians from the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem.
    • Decline of Support: Increasingly, Israelis have distanced themselves from developments in the Occupied Territories, reducing support for a two-state solution.
    • Rise of Right Wing: The growth of right-wing parties in Israel has led to the demise of groups supporting the Oslo Accords.
    • Shifting Attitudes: Following attacks by Hamas, support for a two-state solution has dwindled, leaving Israelis questioning whether Palestinians truly desire peace.
    • Recognition of Two-State Solution: Even Hamas once acknowledged a two-state solution based on 1967 borders, although this position has weakened over time.

    How can be the ‘Afghan Model’ solution towards this issue?

    The Afghan model refers to the acceptance of the Taliban’s return to power despite reservations. As the world grapples with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, comparisons have emerged between the Taliban’s ascension in Afghanistan and potential shifts in Hamas’ role in Palestine. 

    • Similarity between both cases: Both sides require transformative leadership changes. Israel needs to embrace a two-state solution, and Palestine requires an inclusive and representative leadership encompassing Gaza and the West Bank. 

    What are the Challenges and Implications if Afghan model is applied?

    • Political stance: Centrist Israeli politicians have lost popularity due to their perceived inaction on the Palestinian issue. In short, replacing them as champions of a two-state solution is challenging.
    • Hamas’ inclusion in Palestinian governance structures would necessitate significant ideological shifts and concessions, which may prove difficult.
    • The international community’s reluctant approach to the two-state solution raises questions about their commitment to promoting meaningful change in the Middle East.

    Conclusion: 

    The ‘Afghan model,’ while imperfect, offers insights into the possibilities and limitations of accommodating hard-line forces within mainstream political processes. Ultimately, the success of such efforts depends upon the ability of all stakeholders—including Israel, Palestine, and the international community to overcome deeply ingrained mistrust and pursue genuine reconciliation.

    Prelims PYQs:

    1. The term “two-state solution” is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of (UPSC CSE 2018)
    1. China
    2. Israel
    3. Iraq
    4. Yemen

    Mains PYQs:

    Too little cash, too much politics, leaves UNESCO fighting for life.’ Discuss the statement in the light of US’ withdrawal and its accusation of the cultural body as being ‘anti-Israel bias’ (UPSC CSE 2019)

  • The current global order — a fraying around many edges

     

    PYQ Relevance

    Mains PYQs

    1. “There arose a serious challenge to the Democratic State System between the two World Wars.” Evaluate the statement. (2021)

    2. The World Bank and the IMF, collectively known as the Bretton Woods Institutions, are the two inter-governmental pillars supporting the structure of the world’s economic and financial order. Superficially, the World Bank and the IMF exhibit many common characteristics, yet their role, functions and mandate are distinctly different. Elucidate. (2015)

    Prelims PYQs

    ‘Global Financial Stability Report’ is released by which organization? (2016)

    a)      Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

    b)      World Economic Forum

    c)       World Bank

    d)      World Trade Organization (WTO)

    Note4Students:

    Relevance: GS II(International Relation)

    • Prelims: United Nations and Security Council;
    • Mains: Global Order and Challenges; Major International Organizations; United Nations;

    Mentor Comments: UPSC has been known to ask questions about ‘how things are at present vs. how things should be ideally’ across subjects like IR, Science and Technology, governance, or Economy. This op-ed is useful for analyzing the recent ongoing dynamics at the geopolitical level which is affecting the power play among the significant multilateral organizations.

    So, Let’s Learn.

    Why in the News?

    Recently, at the 55th regular session of the Human Rights Council, Antonio Guterres (UN Secretary-General), has expressed growing pessimism about the organization’s future due to the “lack of unity” among members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

    Context:

    • During the 2020s, the United Nations-led system, although traditionally the default option, is presently facing significant challenges.
    • There is an urgent need for reform within the UN due to existing divisions, as superficial changes may not be sufficient to address the underlying issues to revitalize its effectiveness.

     Is this the end of the road for the current global order?

    1) The Evolution and the shift in Global world order w.r.t United Nations System:

    • The UN’s foundation dates back to January 1942 when 26 Allied nations signed the Declaration of the United Nations, endorsing the Atlantic Charter of 1941 that outlined the war aims of the US and UK.
    • Evolution of the UN and Power Dynamics:
      • The UN was created to uphold sovereignty and equality among nations through collective security principles but faced challenges within the Security Council due to the dominance of its five Permanent Members.
      • Post-1942 negotiations led to a structure where major Allied powers were granted permanent veto power, resembling early 19th-century European power dynamics.
      • The Bretton Woods Conference in July 1944 established key financial institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and GATT (later WTO) to create an international economic order focused on post-war reconstruction and global trade liberalization.
    • Shifts in Power and Economic Order:
      • The creation of the IMF marked a shift in power dynamics as imperial Britain’s debt burden led to the US emerging as a dominant force in global finance.
      • Britain had to relinquish its imperial trade preferences, symbolizing a transition from sterling to dollar dominance in international financial systems

    2) Controlling Power Structures:

    • Influence of old power structures: The governance of the World Bank and IMF reflects old power structures, with an American heading the World Bank and Europe nominating the IMF head.
    • Voting rights: Voting rights in the IMF remain stagnant, favoring major economies like the US, UK, and G-7 nations, giving them significant influence.
      • For Example, currently the percentage voting rights for, say, the original BRICS members (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are 2.22, 2.59, 2.63, 6.08, and 0.63. The U.S. alone commands 16.5; add to it the votes of the U.K.
    • Special Drawing Rights (SDR): Special Drawing Rights allocation and major reforms require an 85% majority vote, effectively granting the US a powerful veto within the IMF.
      • The IMF maintains global stability by promoting financial stability, offering advice, and providing funds to countries in financial difficulty, as long as they accept conditions set by the leadership of the Fund.

    What are the significant challenges in maintaining UN’s role in global governance and international peace and security?

    • Global Events and Geopolitical Constraints: The geopolitical constraints on the UN are intensifying, with deep rifts among major powers affecting the organization’s effectiveness in addressing global crises.
      • The 2020s have exposed vulnerabilities within the global system, with events like COVID-19 border closures disrupting cooperation and shared prosperity ideals. Secondly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlighted the disregard for rules by powerful nations, undermining the system’s integrity.
    • New Fault Lines and Declining Political Influence: The UN’s political influence is decreasing due to political divisions and resource gaps, requiring new strategies to mobilize its strengths for peace.
      • For Example, presently, the conflict in Gaza revealed divisions between developed and developing nations, questioning support for the UN and exposing underlying tensions over human rights and historical injustices. Further, the crisis in West Asia is pushing the UN to the sidelines as key players challenge its authority, testing their commitment to fundamental UN principles.
    • Major-Power Divisions: Divisions among major powers are shrinking the space for multilateral cooperation, impacting the UN’s ability to manage international peace and security.
      • For Example, the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) aimed to challenge the World Bank but faces resistance, highlighting ongoing power struggles in global governance.
    • Security Council Paralysis: The Security Council has been slow and indecisive in reacting to crises, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine posing a serious challenge to international security and highlighting the need for more effective collective solutions.
      • Moreover, developing countries struggled to overcome Security Council vetoes and Bretton Woods Institutions’ voting structures.
    Silver Lining:

    • Existing organizations outside the UN, like ASEAN, EU, G-7, G-20, and NATO, serve specific interests rather than universal values, lacking the binding legal framework of the UN. These organizations operate as clubs or regional security alliances, and can be more effective considering global governance structure.

     Way Forward:

    • Need for an Inclusive Global Cooperation: There is a growing need for more effective and inclusive global cooperation, emphasizing the importance of reforming international financial institutions and strengthening the role of the General Assembly within the UN system.
    • Need for Pragmatic Approach: In light of these challenges, there is a consensus on the necessity for flexibility, and adaptability within the UN to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics and effectively address global issues while restoring trust and reigniting global solidarity.

     

  • EU Sanctions Indian Tech Firm over Dual-Use Items

    In the news

    • The EU has sanctioned Si2 Microsystems, an Indian tech company for its connections with Russia.
    • It has faced previous sanctions, including being banned by the US from transferring “dual-use” technology.

    What are Dual-Use Items?

    • Definition: Dual-use items refer to commodities that possess the potential for application in both civilian and military contexts.
    • Regulatory Scrutiny: These items are subject to stringent regulation due to their capability to be initially designed for civilian purposes but later repurposed for military or even terrorist activities.
    • Examples: Examples of dual-use items include global positioning satellites, missiles, nuclear technology, chemical and biological weapons, night vision technology, drones, precision-engineered aluminium pipes, and specific types of ball bearings.

    Global Control Mechanisms for Dual-Use Items

    (1) Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR):

    • Established: In 1987 by G-7 countries.
    • Purpose: To limit the proliferation of missiles capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction.
    • Membership: Consists of 35 member countries.
    • Guidelines: Members coordinate national export controls to prevent missile proliferation.
    • India’s Membership: India became the 35th member in 2016.

    (2) Wassenaar Arrangement (WA):

    • Established: In 1996 with 42 participating states.
    • Purpose: Prevent destabilizing accumulations of conventional arms and dual-use goods and technologies.
    • Export Controls: Member countries apply controls on listed items to avoid enhancing military capabilities.
    • India is not a member: It it has expressed interest in joining to strengthen its export controls and enhance its non-proliferation efforts.

    (3) Australia Group (AG):

    • Formation: Prompted by Iraq’s use of chemical weapons in 1985.
    • Focus: Initially on chemical weapons precursor chemicals, expanded to include biological weapons prevention.
    • Membership: Composed of 42 member countries. India is NOT a member.
    • Objective: Harmonization of international export controls on chemical and biological technologies.

    (4) Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG):

    • Established: In 1974 in response to India’s nuclear tests.
    • Purpose: Control nuclear and nuclear-related technology to prevent proliferation.
    • Membership: Consists of 48 participating governments.
    • Guidelines: Aim to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons through control measures.

    [Note: India is also party to key conventions such as the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention (BWC).]

    India’s in-house mechanisms against Dual-Use Items

    • Role of DGFT: The Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) in India oversees the regulation of dual-use items through the SCOMET list (Specialty Chemicals, Organisms, Materials, Equipment, and Technologies).
    • SCOMET List: SCOMET items encompass special chemicals, organisms, materials, equipment, and technologies with dual-use potential.
    • Regulatory Framework: Exporting SCOMET items is subject to strict regulations, either requiring a license or being prohibited altogether.
    • Alignment with International Controls: The SCOMET control list aligns with the control lists of various multilateral export control regimes and conventions.

    Try this PYQ from CSP 2015:

    Q.Consider the following countries

    1. China
    2. France
    3. India
    4. Israel
    5. Pakistan

    Which among the countries given above are Nuclear Weapons States as recognized by the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)?

    1. 1 and 2 only
    2. 1, 3, 4 and 5 only
    3. 2, 4 and 5 only
    4. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5

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