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Subject: International Relations

  • Greater Male Connectivity Project

    Maldives has announced the signing of a $500-million infrastructure project for the construction of the Greater Malé Connectivity Project (GMCP) with India.

    Greater Malé Connectivity Project

    • This infrastructure project, the largest-ever by India in the Maldives, involves the construction of a 6.74-km-long bridge and causeway link.
    • It will connect the Maldives capital Malé with the neighbouring islands of Villingli, Gulhifalhu and Thilafushi.
    • The seeds of the project were planted during the External Affairs Minister’s visit to Malé in September 2019.
    • The GMCP is not only the biggest project India is doing in the Maldives but also the biggest infrastructure project in the Maldives overall.

    Significance of the Project

    • This project is significant because it facilitates inter-island connectivity in the country
    • Transport is a major challenge for residents who have to take boats or seaplanes to distant islands.
    • It becomes even more difficult during the monsoons when the seas are rough.
    • This bridge that would connect Malé with the three neighboring islands would ease the process.

    The Chinese-made 1.39 km-long Sinamalé Bridge connects Malé with the islands of Hulhulé and Hulhumalé and this project, four tiles longer, would link the other three islands.

    Why it is needed?

    • Male is one of the most densely populated cities in the world.
    • Close to 40% of the entire population of the Maldives lives in Malé, which has an area of approximately 8.30 square kilometres.
    • It is very congested and land is a major issue.

    Why these islands?

    • On the island of Gulhifalhu, a port, is at present being built under the Indian line of credit.
    • Located some 6 kilometers from Malé, since 2016, the island has been promoted as a strategic location for manufacturing, warehousing and distribution facilities due to its proximity to the capital city.
    • Located 7 km from the capital, the artificial island of Thilafushi was created and designated as a landfill in the early 1990s, to receive garbage created mostly in Malé.
    • The Maldives has plans of expanding industrial work on Thilafushi, making this bridge’s connectivity to the capital indispensable for the transport of employees and other services.

    Why did Male opt for India’s offer?

    • After a five-year grace period, the interest rate is 1.75% and the Maldives has to repay it over a 20-year period.
    • India’s loans are less expensive and more transparent, unlike China’s.
    • The Maldives hasn’t really been clear about how much debt it owes to China.

    Importance of Maldives for India

    • Geo-strategic importance: Maldives, a Toll Gate in the Indian Ocean. Located in the southern and northern parts of this island chain lies the two important sea lanes of communication (SLOCs).
    • Trade: These SLOCs are critical for maritime trade flow between the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Hormuz in West Asia and the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia. Nearly 50% of India’s external trade and 80% of its energy imports transit these SLOCs in the Arabian Sea.
    • Important SAARC member: Besides, Maldives is a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC).
    • People To People Contact: There is a significant population of Maldivian students in India. They are aided by a liberal visa-free regime extended by India. There is also medical tourism.
    • Economic Cooperation: Tourism is the mainstay of the Maldivian economy. The country is now a major tourist destination for some Indians and a job destination for others.

    What hinders India in Male?

    • Unstable governments: India’s major concern has been the impact of political instability in the neighbourhood on its security and development.
    • Religious extremism: In the past decade or so, the number of Maldivians drawn towards terrorist groups like the Islamic State (IS) and Pakistan-based madrassas and jihadist groups has been increasing.
    • Affinity with China: China’s strategic footprint in India’s neighbourhood has increased. The Maldives has emerged as an important ‘pearl’ in China’s “String of Pearls” construct in South Asia. It has also started using the China card to bargain with India.

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  • India &Arctic ocean

    It is tempting to view the current geopolitics of the Arctic through the lenses of the ‘great power competition’ and inevitable conflict of interests.

    Current geopolitical scenario in the Arctic: US-Russia Spat

    • It is mainly viewed as the growing tensions between North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies and Russia.
    • By the end of the Cold War, the geopolitical tensions and security concerns in the Arctic were almost forgotten.
    • The perceived ‘harmony’ was broken in 2007, when the Russian explorers planted their flag on the seabed 4,200m (13,779ft) below the North Pole to articulate Moscow’s claims in the Arctic.
    • This move was certainly viewed as provocative by other Arctic State.
    • The regional tension increased after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2014.
    • Consequently, relations between the U.S. and Russia reached their lowest point again.

    Note: Five Arctic littoral states — Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Norway, Russia and the USA (Alaska) — and three other Arctic nations — Finland, Sweden and Iceland — form the Arctic Council (estd. 1996).

    Try mapping them.

    Caution: India became an Observer in the Arctic Council for the first time in 2013. And, India isn’t a full-time observer.

    China’s vested interests in Arctic

    • China, for example, with its self-proclaimed status of a ‘near Arctic state’, has been actively engaged in various projects across the region.
    • The importance of the Arctic region for China mostly stems from its energy security issues and the need to diversify shipping lanes.

    Why China focuses on Arctic?

    • Transport routes from China to Europe through the Arctic are not only much shorter but also free from the challenges associated with the Malacca Strait and South China Sea.
    • In the latter case, China will continue facing a backlash from many Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members, supported by US forces and Quad.

    Impact of Climate change on Arctic

    • The Arctic is warming nearly twice as fast as the rest of the planet with consecutive record-breaking warm years since 2014.
    • The Arctic is likely to begin experiencing ice-free summers within the next decade, with summers likely to be completely free of sea ice by mid-century.

    Conclusion

    • Given the significance of the region, the Arctic will continue to draw increased attention.
    • Hence, countries should refrain from mutual provocations, excessive militarisation, and quid pro quo tactics.
    • All Arctic actors should have a long-term vision and strategic goals as compared to immediate short-term gains.
    • Instead of creating a potential battleground that is reminiscent of the Cold War, the parties concerned should utilise their expertise and create the required synergy to achieve shared goals.
    • Climate change and its dramatic consequences must be a catalyst for Arctic cooperation.

    Back2Basics: Arctic Council

    • It is an advisory body that promotes cooperation among member nations and indigenous groups as per the Ottawa Declaration of 1996.
    • Its focus is on sustainable development and environmental protection of the Arctic.
    • The Arctic Council consists of the eight Arctic States: Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark (including Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States.
    • In 2013, six Observers joined the Arctic Council, including China, Japan, India, Italy, South Korea, and Singapore, bringing their total number to 13.

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  • The legal challenges in recognising the Taliban

    Context

    The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has triggered a new debate in international law on the issue of recognising an entity that claims to be the new government of a state.

    Legal challenge of recognising a government

    • Questions of recognition do not arise when the change of government within a state occurs when political power is transferred through legal means.
    • However, things are different when the change of government happens through extra-legal methods like ousting the sitting government using unconstitutional means.
    • China and Russia, two of the five permanent United Nations Security Council members, have seemingly shown readiness to recognise a Taliban-led government.
    • Whereas countries like Canada have opposed it.
    • Recognition of governments under international law is vital for several reasons.
    • Recognition of government Vs. Recognition of State: Malcolm Shaw, the international lawyer, writes, “a change in government, however, accomplished, does not affect the identity of the State itself.”
    • Thus, in the current debate, the issue is not about the recognition of Afghanistan, whose legal personality remains intact it’s about the recognition of government.

    Two doctrines in Internation laws for recognising a government

    1) Effectiveness

    • According to this principle, to recognise a government means to determine whether it effectively controls the state it claims to govern.
    • Under this doctrine, it is immaterial how the new government occupied office.
    • Since there is hardly any doubt that the Taliban now effectively controls Afghanistan, as per this test, it would be recognised as Afghanistan’s government for international law and thus, international relations.

    2) Democratic legitimacy

    •  According to this doctrine, recognition of a government also depends on whether it is the legitimate representative of the people it claims to govern.
    • The end of the Cold War, the subsequent spread of democracy in the world, and the growing demand for universal respect for human rights gave an impetus to this doctrine in the last three decades.
    • This doctrine has led many countries to bestow de jure recognition (legal recognition) on governments in exile in place of governments exercising effective control.
    • Two recent examples include recognition by some states of Yemen’s government in exile since 2015.
    • Second, the Nicolás Maduro government in Venezuela is not recognised by several countries due to the alleged lack of democratic legitimacy.
    • The Taliban regime, despite exercising effective control over Afghanistan, lacks democratic legitimacy.
    • Thus, it would fail to be recognised as the legitimate representative of Afghanistan if the doctrine of democratic legitimacy is applied.
    • Nevertheless, there is no binding legal obligation on countries to withhold recognition citing democratic legitimacy.
    • Thus, if Russia and China were to formally recognise the Taliban regime due to its effective control of Afghanistan, it would be consistent with international law.

    Way forward for India

    • India will have to find a way to engage with the Taliban given India’s huge investments in Afghanistan and stakes in the South Asian region.
    • India should adopt a clear policy that it will deal with the Taliban simply because it is the de facto government, not because it is a legitimate one.
    • This principle should be followed for bilateral relations and also for multilateral dealings such as within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.

    Consider the question “What are the doctrines in international law in recognising the government of State? What should be India’s course of action in dealing with the Taliban in Afghanistan?” 

    Conclusion

    Given the Taliban’s brutal past, India is within its right to withhold de jure recognition of the Taliban regime. However, India has to devise a policy to deal with the Taliban as a de facto government.

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  • India must bet on patience in Afghanistan

    Context

    Notwithstanding the current triumphalism in Pakistan at “overthrowing” the US-backed order in Kabul and “pushing” India out of Afghanistan, India can afford to step back and signal that it can wait.

    Uncertainties about the future

    Two interconnected political negotiations unfolding are likely to determine Afghanistan’s immediate future.

    1) Setting up political order

    • One is focused on building a new political order within Afghanistan.
    • More than a week after President Ghani fled Kabul, there is no government, let alone an inclusive and internationally acceptable one, in sight.
    • Before Pakistan can get the Taliban to share power with other groups, it has to facilitate an acceptable accommodation between different factions of the Taliban.
    • Then there is the problem of including the non-Taliban formations in the new government.

    2) Gaining international recognition

    • The international community has set some broad conditions for the recognition of the Taliban-led government.
    • Besides an inclusive government at home, the world wants to see respect for human rights, especially women’s rights, ending support for international terrorism, and stopping opium production.
    • Pakistan will hope to get some of its traditional friends like China and Turkey or new partners like Russia to break the current international consensus.
    • Pakistan and the Taliban, however, know Chinese and Russian support is welcome but not enough.
    • They need an understanding of the US and its allies to gain political legitimacy as well as sustained international economic assistance.
    • The West, too, needs the Taliban to facilitate the evacuation of its citizens from Kabul and, sooner rather than later, deliver humanitarian assistance.

    How India differs from Pakistan in its approach towards Afghanistan?

    • India has never been in strategic competition with Pakistan in Afghanistan. India’s lack of direct geographic access to Afghanistan has ensured that.
    • Both their strategies have roots in the 19th-century policies of the Raj.
    • Forward policy: The Pakistan Army’s quest for strategic depth in Afghanistan harks back to the “forward policy” school that sought to actively control the territories beyond the Indus.
    • The forward policy seeks political dominance over Afghanistan in the name of a “friendly government” in Kabul.
    • Masterly inactivity: India, in contrast, stayed with a rival school in the Raj that called for “masterly inactivity” — a prudent approach to the badlands beyond the Indus.
    • India’s strategy seeks to strengthen Kabul’s autonomy vis-à-vis Rawalpindi and facilitate Afghanistan’s economic modernisation.
    • The Afghan values that India supports — nationalism, sovereignty, and autonomy — will endure in Kabul, irrespective of the nature of the regime.

    Consider the question “What are the implications of the return of Taliban in Afghanistan for India? What should be India’s approach in dealing with the Taliban controlled Afghanistan?” 

    Conclusion

    Strategic patience coupled with political empathy for Afghan people, and an active engagement will continue to keep India relevant in Kabul’s internal and external evolution.

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  • The fall of Kabul, the future of regional geopolitics

    Context

    The fall of Kabul in the wake of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan will prove to be a defining moment for the region and the future shape of its geopolitics.

    Implications of the US withdrawal for India

    1) Increase in threat from China

    • The manner in which the United States withdrew from Afghanist created the regional power vacuum in the Eurasian heartland.
    • An axis of regional powers such as China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and the Taliban, have already started filling this power vacuum.
    • Advantageous for China: The post-American power vacuum in the region will be primarily advantageous to China and its grand strategic plans for the region.
    • BRI expansion: Beijing will further strengthen its efforts to bring every country in the region, except India, on the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative bandwagon, thereby altering the geopolitical and geoeconomic foundations of the region
    • The much-feared Chinese encirclement of India will become ever more pronounced.
    • Even in trade, given the sorry state of the post-COVID-19 Indian economy, India needs trade with China more than the other way round.
    • Unless India can find ways of ensuring a rapprochement with China, it must expect Beijing to challenge India on occasion, and be prepared for it.

    2) Terror and extremism

    • The U.S. presence in Afghanistan, international pressure on the Taliban, and Financial Action Task Force worries in Pakistan had a relatively moderating effect on the region’s terror ecosystem.
    • There is little appetite for a regional approach to curbing terrorism from a Taliban-led Afghanistan.
    • This enables the Taliban to engage in a selective treatment towards terror outfits present there or they have relations with.
    • It is unlikely that the Taliban will proactively export terror to other countries unless of course for tactical purposes, for instance, Pakistan against India.
    • The real worry, however, is the inspiration that disgruntled elements in the region will draw from the Taliban’s victory against the world’s sole superpower.

    3) Impact on India’s regional interests and outreach to Central Asia

    • The return of the Taliban to Kabul has effectively laid India’s ‘mission Central Asia’ to rest.
    • India’s diplomatic and civilian presence as well as its civilian investments will now be at the mercy of the Taliban, and to some extent Pakistan.
    • Had India cultivated deeper relations with the Taliban, Indian interests would have been more secure in a post-American Afghanistan.

    4) Impact on India’s foreign policy choices

    • Shift to Indo-Pacific: Given the little physical access India has to its north-western landmass, its focus is bound to shift more to the Indo-Pacific even though a maritime grand strategy may not necessarily be an answer to its continental challenges.
    • Improving relations with neighbours: India might also seek to cultivate more friendly relations with its neighbours.
    • India has already indicated that it would not challenge the junta on the coup and its widespread human rights violations.
    • The last thing India needs now is an angry neighbour rushing to China.
    • Stability in relations with Pakistan: The developments in Afghanistan could nudge India to seek stability, if not peace, with Pakistan.
    • Both sides might refrain from indulging in competitive risk-taking unless something dramatic happens which is always a possibility between the two rivals.
    • That said, stability between India and Pakistan depends a great deal on how politics in Kashmir plays out, and whether India is able to pacify the aggrieved sections in the Valley.

    Consider the question “What would be the fallout of the Taliban’s return in Afghanistan for India? What steps India needs to take to mitigate the impact on its interests?”

    Conclusion

    The lesson for India in the wake of these developments is clear: It will have to fight its own battles. So it must make enemies wisely, choose friends carefully, rekindle flickering friendships, and make peace while it can.

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  • What is Shariah Law?

    The Taliban have pledged that women in Afghanistan will have rights “within the bounds of Islamic law,” or Shariah, under their newly established rule.

    What is Shariah?

    • Shariah is based on the Quran, stories of the Prophet Muhammad’s life, and the rulings of religious scholars, forming the moral and legal framework of Islam.
    • The Quran details a path to a moral life, but not a specific set of laws.

    Interpreting Shariah

    • The interpretations of Shariah are a matter of debate across the Muslim world, and all groups and governments that base their legal systems on Shariah have done so differently.
    • One interpretation of Shariah could afford women extensive rights, while another could leave women with few.
    • Critics have said that some of the Taliban restrictions on women under the guise of Islamic law actually went beyond the bounds of Shariah.
    • When the Taliban say they are instituting Shariah law, that does not mean they are doing so in ways that Islamic scholars or other Islamic authorities would agree with.

    What does Shariah prescribe?

    • Shariah lists some specific crimes, such as theft and adultery, and punishments if accusations meet a standard of proof.
    • It also offers moral and spiritual guidance, such as when and how to pray, or how to marry and divorce.
    • It does not forbid women to leave home without a male escort or bar them from working in most jobs.

    How has the Taliban previously interpreted Shariah?

    • When the Taliban controlled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, they banned television and most musical instruments.
    • They established a department for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice based on a Saudi model.

    Restrictions imposed on Women

    • Restrictions on behavior, dress, and movement were enforced by morality police officers, who drove around in pickup trucks, publicly humiliating and whipping women who did not adhere to their rules.
    • In 1996, a woman in Kabul, Afghanistan, had the end of her thumb cut off for wearing nail polish, according to Amnesty International.
    • Other restrictions include a ban on schooling for girls, and publicly bashing people who violated the group’s morality code.
    • Women accused of adultery are stoned to death.

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  • Places in news: Panjshir Valley

    The Taliban has sent hundreds of its fighters to the Panjshir Valley, one of the few parts of Afghanistan not yet controlled by the group.

    Panjshir Valley

    • Located 150 km north of Kabul, the Valley is near the Hindu Kush Mountain range.
    • It’s divided by the Panjshir river and ringed by the Panjshir mountains in the north and the Kuhestan mountains in the south.
    • The mountain tops are covered by snow throughout the year.
    • This difficult terrain makes the Valley a nightmare for invaders.

    Why is it significant?

    • The Valley has repeatedly played a decisive role in Afghanistan’s military history, as its geographical position almost completely closes it off from the rest of the country.
    • The only access point to the region is through a narrow passage created by the Panjshir River, which can be easily defended militarily.
    • Famed for its natural defenses, the region tucked into the Hindu Kush mountains never fell to the Taliban during the civil war of the 1990s, nor was it conquered by the Soviets a decade earlier.
    • Panjshir Valley was among the safest regions in the country during the time of the NATO-backed government from 2001 to 2021.
    • The valley is also known for its emeralds, which were used in the past to finance the resistance movements against those in power.

    Answer this PYQ:

    Consider the following pairs

    Towns: Country in news        

    1. Aleppo: Syria
    2. Kirkuk: Yemen
    3. Mosul: Palestine
    4. Mazar-i-sharif: Afghanistan

    Which of the pairs given above are correctly matched? (CSP 2018)

    (a) 1 and 2

    (b) 1 and 4

    (c) 2 and 3

    (d) 3 and 4

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”y9iww5wevm” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

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  • The Abraham Accords as India’s West Asia bridge

    Context

    The recent visit by the Indian Air Force chief, to Israel offers a window to study how India is taking advantage of the Abraham Accords deal signed between Israel and a consortium of Arab States led by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2020.

    Increasing defence cooperation between India and West Asia region

    • India’s trajectory towards an increased strategic footprint in West Asia has been in development for some time now.
    • Starting from the relatively low-key staging visit to Saudi Arabia conducted by the IAF in 2015.
    • India hosted visiting Iranian naval warships in 2018.
    • India takes an active part in the defence of the critical waterways in and around the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea and the extended Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
    • An Indian contingent of the Indian Air Force (IAF) will visit Israel in October to take part in multilateral military exercises.
    • India also conducted the ‘Zayed Talwar’ naval exercises with the UAE off the coast of Abu Dhabi, further deepening the fast-developing strategic cooperation between the two countries.
    • In December 2020, Indian Army chief visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia, becoming the first chief of the Indian Army to do so.
    • In 2017, India signed a deal with Oman, the home to Duqm Port  for access to the facility, including dry dock use by the Indian Navy.

    How Abraham Accords accelerated India’s engagement with West Asia region?

    • No need for balancing act: The signing of the Accords has removed a significant strategic obstacle for India — delicate balancing act India has had to play out between the Arab Gulf and Israel over the decades.
    • India had welcomed the Accords, highlighting its support for mechanisms that offer peace and stability in the region.
    • From the UAE’s perspective, Accords were to make sure the emirate along with its international centres of trade such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi do not become targets between Jerusalem and Tehran.
    • However, not all Arab States have been on board with the geopolitical shifts the Accords have pushed through.
    • Saudi Arabia has maintained a distance from this arrangement.

    India’s West Asia construct and relations with Iran

    • Iran, as part of India’s ‘West Asia’ construct, will also play a significant part in India’s outreach in the months to come as the crisis in Afghanistan deepens.
    • Connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and Chabahar-Zahedan rail project (project discussions are still on) amongst others remain critical.
    • Recently,  strategic cooperation revitalised despite multiple obstacles in the bilateral relations, led by U.S. sanctions against Tehran and the general tensions between Israel, the Gulf and Iran via proxy battles in theatres such as Yemen, Syria and beyond.

    Conclusion

    India’s strategic play in West Asia will be reflective of its economic growth, and by association, an increasingly important place in the global order.

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  • Abraham Accords as India’s West Asia bridge

    The recent visit by the Indian Air Force chief to Israel offers a window to study how New Delhi is taking advantage of the Abraham Accords deal signed between Israel and a consortium of Arab States.

    Try this question:

    What are Abraham Accords? Discuss how the Israel-Gulf synergy could impact India’s relations with Israel.

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”bvxbuw1pzf” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″][/wpdiscuz-feedback]

    What are Abraham Accords?

    • The Israel–UAE normalization agreement is officially called the Abraham Accords Peace Agreement.
    • It was initially agreed to in a joint statement by the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on August 13, 2020.
    • The UAE thus became the third Arab country, after Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, to agree to formally normalize its relationship with Israel as well as the first Persian Gulf country to do so.
    • Concurrently, Israel agreed to suspend plans for annexing parts of the West Bank. The agreement normalized what had long been informal but robust foreign relations between the two countries.

    Do you know?

    Abraham was the first of the Hebrew patriarchs and a figure revered by the three great monotheistic religions—Judaism, Christianity, and Islam.

    New friendships

    • For common enemy: Externally, Israel, the UAE and Bahrain share the common threat perception of Iran.
    • Upholding modern values: They are relatively more modern societies that share the overarching and immediate priority of post-pandemic economic resuscitation.
    • Extended cooperation: They have lost no time to set up logistics such as Internet connectivity and direct flights to pave the way for more active economic engagement.

    India and the Gulf

    • Now India has stronger, multifaceted and growing socioeconomic engagements with Israel and the Gulf countries.
    • With over eight million Indian diasporas in the Gulf remitting annually nearly $50 billion, annual merchandise trade of over $150 billion.
    • It sources nearly two-thirds of India’s hydrocarbon imports, major investments, etc. Hence it is natural to ask how the new regional dynamic would affect India.
    • India has acquired a large and rewarding regional footprint, particularly as the preferred source of manpower, food products, pharmaceuticals, gem and jewellery, light engineering items, etc.
    • Indians are also the biggest stakeholders in Dubai’s real estate, tourism, and Free Economic Zones.
    • In the evolving scenario, there may be scope for a profitable trilateral synergy, but India cannot take its preponderance as a given.

    The Israel-GCC synergy

    • Culture: Even the Israeli Arabs may find career opportunities to bridge the cultural divide. Israel is known as the start-up nation and its stakeholders could easily fit in the various duty-free incubators in the UAE.
    • Tourism: Tourism, real estate and financial service sectors on both sides have suffered due to the pandemic and hope for a positive spin-off from the peer-to-peer interactions.
    • Defense: Israel has niche strengths in defence, security and surveillance equipment, arid farming, solar power, horticultural products, high-tech, gem and jewellery, and pharmaceuticals.
    • Technology: Further, Israel has the potential to supply skilled and semi-skilled manpower to the GCC states, particularly from the Sephardim and Mizrahim ethnicities, many of whom speak Arabic.

    The Iran link

    • Iran, as part of India’s ‘West Asia’ construct, will also play a significant part in India’s outreach in the months to come as the crisis in Afghanistan deepens.
    • The fact that New Delhi used Iranian airspace and facilities when evacuating its diplomatic staff from Kandahar in July showcases a level of strategic commonality.
    • Keeping this in mind, connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and Chabahar-Zahedan rail project (project discussions are still on) amongst others remain critical.

    Conclusion

    • India’s strategic play in West Asia will be reflective of its economic growth, and by association, an increasingly important place in the global order.

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  • Understanding the strategic flux and humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan

    Context

    The Afghan government and its defence forces have completely collapsed. The world over, television screens are full of images of the extraordinary takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban.

    Background of the US intervention in Afghanistan

    • The original trigger for the US military intervention in Afghanistan was the 9/11 attacks.
    • The objective then was to eliminate the al Qaeda sanctuaries hosted by the Taliban.
    • That goal was quickly attained, as was another one — the elimination of Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in 2011.
    • The US was thereafter stuck into a vortex in which its mission oscillated between counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency. 
    • The military presence in Afghanistan has been questioned by the US political firmament for a decade.

    Factors driving the US exit

    • China factor: The US now regards China as its principal strategic competitor.
    • China’s muscle-flexing in the East and South China Seas calls for a renewed effort by the US to protect its stakes.
    • The rise of China is the main geo-strategic threat for the US.
    • In 2001, the US had taken its eye off the ball in diverting its attention to the global war on terror.
    • Beginning with Afghanistan, it meandered through Iraq, Libya and Syria, with mixed results.
    • Taiwan: China’s recent ratcheting up of pressure on Taiwan has also sounded the alarm.

    Implications of Taliban’s return for region

    • The new regime in Kabul is likely to open the door to economic investments from China.
    • At the geopolitical level, the BRI may well receive a boost, given China’s interests in connectivity that could straddle the region, from Pakistan to Iran.
    • Pakistan has shown alacrity in welcoming the change of guard in Kabul.
    • The change in Afghanistan has security implications for India and the region at large.
    • A spill-over of any chaos and instability in Afghanistan beyond its borders could give terrorism a shot in the arm.
    • It could also singe Pakistan if it does not review its malevolent practices, which favour terror as an instrument of state policy.

    Way forward for India

    • India should prioritise the welfare of the Afghan people, whenever the opportunity presents itself.
    • Currently, about 2,500 Afghan students are enrolled in educational and vocational institutions across India.
    • They will no doubt wish to extend their scholarships.
    • As a close neighbour, India has keen stakes in ensuring a stable, secure and developed Afghanistan.
    • As the rotational President of the UN Security Council for August, India has an opportunity to engage important stakeholders on the way forward.
    • Beyond that too, India’s presence in the UN Security Council till the end of 2022 will provide a platform to explore options with greater flexibility.

    Conclusion

    The global community needs to underscore the continued participation of women in governance in Afghanistan and keep an eye on violations of human rights and international humanitarian law.

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