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Subject: International Relations

  • Swiss Neutrality in World Affairs

    Switzerland’s traditional foreign policy of neutrality has become attractive again because of the changing political reality in the world, said its Ambassador recently.

    Q.In context to foreign policy, discuss the relevance, benefits and limitations of Swiss Neutrality.(150 W)

    What is Swiss Neutrality?

    • Swiss neutrality is one of the main principles of Switzerland’s foreign policy which dictates that Switzerland is not to be involved in armed or political conflicts between other states.
    • This policy is self-imposed, permanent, and armed, designed to ensure external security and promote peace.
    • Under this, Switzerland pursues an active foreign policy and is frequently involved in peace-building processes around the world.

    Historic significance

    • Switzerland has the oldest policy of military neutrality in the world; it has not participated in a foreign war since its neutrality was established by the Treaty of Paris in 1815.
    • The European powers (Austria, France, the UK, Portugal, Prussia, Russia, Spain and Sweden) agreed at the Congress of Vienna in May 1815 that Switzerland should be neutral.
    • But final ratification was delayed until after Napoleon Bonaparte was defeated so that some coalition forces could invade France via Swiss territory.

    Swiss moves for the status

    • Since World War II, Switzerland has taken a more active role in international affairs by aiding with humanitarian initiatives, but it remains fiercely neutral with regard to military affairs.
    • It has never joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or the European Union, and only joined the United Nations in 2002.

    Relevance today

    • Neutrality has become necessary as a foreign policy tool as the phase of power politics has returned in world affairs.
    • Now with big power politics, Switzerland’s neutrality and Switzerland as a place to meet is much more attractive again.

  • IAEA

    The move by the US administration under Biden to revive the Iran nuclear deal has once again turned the spotlight on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which played a key role in enforcing the original nuclear deal from which Trump withdrew the US in 2018.

    Try this question from CSP 2020:

    Q.In India, why are some nuclear reactors kept under “IAEA Safeguards” while others are not?

    (a) Some use Uranium and others use thorium.

    (b) Some use imported uranium and others use domestic supplies.

    (c) Some are operated by foreign enterprises and others are operated by domestic enterprises.

    (d) Some are State- owned and others are privately-owned.

    What is IAEA?

    • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is an international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for any military purpose, including nuclear weapons.
    • As the preeminent nuclear watchdog under the UN, the IAEA is entrusted with the task of upholding the principles of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970.
    • It was established as an autonomous organisation on July 29, 1957, at the height of the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
    • Though established independently of the UN through its own international treaty, the agency reports to both the UN General Assembly and the UNSC.

    What are its safeguards?

    • Safeguards are activities by which the IAEA can verify that a State is living up to its international commitments not to use nuclear programmes for nuclear-weapons purposes.
    • Safeguards are based on assessments of the correctness and completeness of a State’s declared nuclear material and nuclear-related activities.
    • Verification measures include on-site inspections, visits, and ongoing monitoring and evaluation.

    Basically, two sets of measures are carried out in accordance with the type of safeguards agreements in force with a State.

    1. One set relates to verifying State reports of declared nuclear material and activities.
    2. Another set enables the IAEA not only to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material but also to provide assurances as to the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in a State.

    Why in news again?

    • The IAEA and Iranian diplomats struck a “temporary” deal to continue inspection of Iran’s nuclear plants for three more months, which keeps at least the diplomatic path to revive the deal open.
    • However, there have always been questions about the Agency’s ability to work independently, without being drawn into big power rivalries.

    IAEA success: Civil nuclear solution

    • The IAEA is active in championing civil nuclear solution to a number of areas like health, which is one of the main areas of peaceful application of nuclear know-how.
    • That apart, in recent years, the IAEA is also active in dealing with climate change, pandemic containment and in the prevention of Zoonotic diseases.
    • The IAEA was the first to announce that the North Korean nuclear programme was not peaceful.
    • North Korea finally expelled IAEA observers and as a result, there are no on-the-ground international inspectors in North Korea.
    • The world is reliant on ground sensors and satellite imageries to observe North Korea’s nuclear actions.

    Issues with IAEA

    • What the IAEA missed in terms of real authority over sovereign states, it compensated for that by cultivating some tall leadership whose actions kept the issue of non-proliferation on the multilateral table.
    • It proved to be ineffective to prevent power politics from influencing nuclear negotiations.
    • This was particularly visible when Pakistan pursued a nuclear weapons programme in the 1980s and despite overwhelming evidence in possession of the American authorities.
    • They did not pursue the case effectively through the IAEA because of the cooperation between the U.S. and Pakistan on the Afghan front.
    • IAEA does not have any power to override the sovereign rights of any member nation of the UN.
    • The uneven authority produced results when in the case of Iran when the Agency’s efforts were backed by big powers.
    • One major criticism of the IAEA is that it never challenges the nuclear dominance of the five permanent members of the UNSC, who themselves hold some of the biggest nuclear arsenals of the world.

    IAEA and India

    • The IAEA-certified the nuclear power plant at Rawatbhata in Rajasthan in 2012, which drew criticism as the power plant had two incidents of leakage of nuclear material earlier that year.
    • The second incident affected at least four workers who worked in the nuclear power plant and had caused concern among the scientific community.

    Iran challenge

    • The coming weeks will, however, test the 63-year old organisation as Iran remains suspicious of the exact intentions of the Biden administration.
    • The current episode, which involves regional political concerns like Saudi-Iran and Iran-Israel rivalries as well as the American interests in the region, will certainly test the IAEA.
    • It will also test the ability of the IAEA to deal with powerful states from its position of “uneven authority”.
    • The main negotiation on this front is dependent on Tehran’s demand for lifting American sanctions. Iran has said its compliance will depend on the lifting of sanctions.

    Future prospects

    • The issues involved between Iran and the U.S. indicate that they are not part of the mandate of the IAEA.
    • Iran also requires assurance that once activated, the deal will not be abandoned in future by an American President in the way that Trump had done in 2018.
    • Tying all the loose ends of this difficult negotiation will be the biggest challenge for all parties.

  • India seeks TRIPS waiver for Vaccines

    India and South Africa have jointly moved a proposal at the WTO’s Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) council for a waiver to help more countries get access to medicines and vaccines during the pandemic.

    Q.WTO and multilateralism is dying in the face of a greater reliance on plurilateral and bilateral trade pacts. Discuss. (250W)

    What is the TRIPS Agreement?

    • The TRIPS is an international legal agreement between all the member nations of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
    • It establishes minimum standards for the regulation by national governments of different forms of intellectual property (IP) as applied to nationals of other WTO member nations.
    • Its agreement was negotiated at the end of the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) between 1989 and 1990 and is administered by the WTO.
    • The TRIPS agreement introduced intellectual property law into the multilateral trading system for the first time and remains the most comprehensive multilateral agreement on intellectual property to date.

    Why did India move such a proposal?

    • TRIPS waiver would deal with the question of equity along with global growth and livelihoods.
    • It is not only that we are coming in the way of life but it is very simple economics, asserted India’s ambassador.
    • For a commercial business of $30-40 billion of annual vaccine output of a few companies, we are coming in the way of $6-7 trillion of global GDP output in one year.

    Premise behind it

    • In 2001, developing countries, concerned that developed countries were insisting on an overly narrow reading of TRIPS, initiated a round of talks that resulted in the Doha Declaration.
    • The Doha declaration is a WTO statement that clarifies the scope of TRIPS, stating for example that TRIPS can and should be interpreted in light of the goal “to promote access to medicines for all.”

    Global response for the move

    • Fifty-seven WTO members have backed the proposal brought out by India.
    • But the EU, U.S., Japan and Canada have opposed the idea stressing the importance of intellectual property for innovation.

  • China’s treatment of Uighurs

    Canada’s House of Commons has voted to declare that China is committing genocide against more than 1 million Uighurs in the western Xinjiang region.

    See the hypocrisy of so-called social activists who see farmers protest, anti-terror operations as a crackdown on human rights, while cases like that of Uighurs, Kurds go unnoticed in the global arena!

    Who are the Uighurs?

    • There are about 12 million Uighurs, mostly Muslim, living in north-western China in the region of Xinjiang, officially known as the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR).
    • The Uighurs speak their own language, similar to Turkish, and see themselves as culturally and ethnically close to Central Asian nations.
    • They make up less than half of the Xinjiang population.
    • In recent decades, there’s been a mass migration of Han Chinese (China’s ethnic majority) to Xinjiang, and the Uighurs feel their culture and livelihoods are under threat.
    • In the early 20th Century, the Uighurs briefly declared independence, but the region was brought under complete control of mainland China’s new Communist government in 1949.

    Where is Xinjiang?

    • Xinjiang lies in the north-west of China and is the country’s biggest region.
    • Like Tibet, it is autonomous, meaning – in theory – it has some powers of self-governance. But in practice, both face major restrictions by the central government.
    • It is a mostly desert region, producing about a fifth of the world’s cotton.
    • It is also rich in oil and natural gas and because of its proximity to Central Asia and Europe is seen by Beijing as an important trade link.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q. Very recently, in which of the following countries have lakhs of people either suffered from severe famine/acute malnutrition or died due to starvation caused by war/ethnic conflicts?
    (a) Angola and Zambia
    (b) Morocco and Tunisia
    (c) Venezuela and Colombia
    (d) Yemen and South Sudan

    What was the build-up to the crackdown?

    • Anti-Han and separatist sentiment rose in Xinjiang from the 1990s, flaring into violence on occasion.
    • In 2009 some 200 people died in clashes in Xinjiang, which the Chinese blamed on Uighurs who want their own state.
    • Xinjiang is now covered by a pervasive network of surveillance, including police, checkpoints, and cameras that scan everything from number plates to individual faces.
    • According to Human Rights Watch, police are also using a mobile app to monitor peoples’ behaviour, such as how much electricity they are using and how often they use their front door.
    • Since 2017 when President Xi Jinping issued an order saying all religions in China should be Chinese in orientation, there have been further crackdowns.

    What does China say?

    • China says the crackdown is necessary to prevent terrorism and root out Islamist extremism and the camps are an effective tool for re-educating inmates in its fight against terrorism.
    • It insists that Uighur militants are waging a violent campaign for an independent state by plotting bombings, sabotage and civic unrest.
    • China has dismissed claims it is trying to reduce the Uighur population through mass sterilizations as “baseless”, and says allegations of forced labour are “completely fabricated”.

  • Sri Lanka at the UN Rights Council

    Sri Lanka is facing another UNHRC resolution for its war crimes that took place during the military campaign against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

    UNHRC report on Sri Lanka

    • The report warned that Sri Lanka’s failure to address human rights violations and war crimes committed in the past had put the country on a “dangerous path”.
    • It rose that this could lead to a “recurrence” of policies and practices that gave rise to the earlier situation.
    • It flagged the accelerating militarization of civilian governmental functions, a reversal of important constitutional safeguards, political obstruction of accountability, intimidation of civil society, and the use of anti-terrorism laws.
    • The shrinking space for independent media and civil society and human rights organisations are also themes in the report.

    Try this question:

    Q.The triangulation in the ties between Sri Lanka, China and Pakistan is an emerging threat in the Indian Ocean Region. Discuss.

    The Resolution 30/1

    • The resolution 30/1 launched in 2015 deals with promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka.
    • It extended an opportunity to make good on its promises for justice and offered extensive support to accomplish that objective.

    Sri Lanka’s intention

    • It is more than Sri Lanka has failed to – and doesn’t intend to — take the necessary, decisive, and sustainable steps necessary to achieve domestic justice and reconciliation.
    • Sri Lanka has officially sought India’s help to muster support against the resolution, which it has described as “unwanted interference by powerful countries”.

    Where India comes in

    • The UNHRC is scheduled to hold an “interactive” session on Sri Lanka where the report was to be discussed, and member countries were to make statements. India is expected to make a statement too.
    • Country-specific resolutions against Sri Lanka have regularly come up at the UNHRC in the last decade.
    • New Delhi voted against Sri Lanka in 2012 and abstained in 2014. It was spared the dilemma in 2015 when Sri Lanka joined resolution 30/1.
    • With elections coming up in Tamil Nadu, and PM declaring on a recent visit that he was the first Indian leader to visit Jaffna, Sri Lanka has begun reading the tea leaves.
    • Whichever way it goes, the resolution is likely to resonate in India-Sri Lanka Relations and for India internally, in the run-up to the Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu.

  • [pib] International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD)

    The International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD) Symposium was inaugurated by the Minister for Jal Shakti.

    What is the news?

    • ICOLD in collaboration with Central Water Commission (CWC) has organised a Symposium on “Sustainable Development of Dams and River Basins”.
    • The symposium is being organised to provide an excellent opportunity to Indian Dam Engineering Professionals and Agencies to share their experiences, ideas and latest developments.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q.Which one of the following pairs is not correctly matched?

    Dam: Lake River

    (a) Govind Sagar: Satluj

    (b) Kolleru Lake: Krishna

    (c) Ukai Reservoir: Tapi

    (d) Wular Lake: Jhelum

    About ICOLD

    • The ICOLD is an international non-governmental organization dedicated to the sharing of professional information and knowledge of the design, construction, maintenance, and impact of large dams.
    • It was founded in 1928 and has its central office in Paris, France.
    • It consists of 100 member national committees which have a total membership of about 10,000 individuals.
    • The official languages of the commission are English and French.

    Key initiatives: World Register of Dams

    For the purpose of inclusion in the World Register of Dams, a large dam is defined as any dam above 15 metres in height OR any dam between 10 and 15 metres in height that meets at least one of the following conditions:

    • the crest length is not less than 500 metres
    • the capacity of the reservoir formed by the dam is not less than one million cubic metres
    • the maximum flood discharge dealt with by the dam is not less than 2 000 cubic metres per second
    • the dam had especially difficult foundation problems
    • the dam is of unusual design

  • Pakistan- Sri Lanka Relations

    Pakistani PM is in Colombo on a two-day visit for ways and means to enhance trade and connectivity with Sri Lanka.

    What is the news?

    • Pakistan PM’s visit has attracted a fair amount of controversy because of a cancelled invitation to address the Sri Lankan parliament.
    • India too granted permission for using its airspace for the Pakistani PM’s aircraft.

    Try this question:

    Q.The triangulation in the ties between Sri Lanka, China and Pakistan is an emerging threat in the Indian Ocean Region. Discuss.

    Sri Lanka- Pakistan Relations

    • For Colombo, the visit holds much value. It comes at a fraught time for the government on the international stage.
    • Imminently, it is bracing to be hauled over the coals at the UN Human Rights Commission for withdrawing from resolution 30/1 of September 2015, under which it committed to carrying out war crime investigations.
    • To make matters worse, the Islamic world is appalled by Sri Lanka’s tight rules for the cremation and not burials of Muslims who have died of COVID-19.
    • The rule created a storm in Sri Lanka, with community leaders convinced that this is nothing but an extension of the state’s persecution of Muslims.

    Why Pakistan?

    (1) Trade ties

    • Pakistan is Sri Lanka’s second-largest trading partner in South Asia after India.
    • Sri Lanka and Pakistan have a free trade agreement dating back to 2005.
    • Pakistan’s top exports to Sri Lanka are textiles and cement.
    • Sri Lanka’s top exports to Pakistan are tea, rubber and readymade garments.

    (2) Cultural ties

    • In addition to trade cooperation, Pakistan invokes cricket and Buddhism, topics that most Sri Lankans share a deep connection with.
    • Over the last decade, Pakistan has also been projecting its ancient Buddhist sites to promote cultural ties with Sri Lanka.

    (3) Defence ties

    Defence ties are a strong pillar of Sri Lanka- Pakistan bilateral relationship.

    • During the 1971 war, Pakistan Air Force jets refuelled in Sri Lanka.
    • India pulled back the peacekeeping forces in 1990, it provided no active defence support to the Sri Lankan military.
    • Sri Lanka turned to Pakistan for arms, ammunition as well as training for its fighter pilots.
    • Gotabaya, who was defence secretary at the time, visited Pakistan in 2008 to make a request for emergency assistance with military supplies.
    • Earlier this month, Sri Lanka participated in Pakistan’s multi-nation naval exercise Aman.

    India’s observations and concerns

    • As Sri Lanka’s closest neighbour with strong, all-encompassing ties, even if these are sometimes problematic, India has not perceived Pakistan as a serious rival in Sri Lanka so far.
    • Sporadically, the Indian security establishment has voiced concerns about Pakistan’s role in the radicalization of people, especially in Eastern Sri Lanka.
    • Funds have poured in for new mosques from some West Asian countries, and the effect that this could have in India.

    Emerging threats from the ‘Triad’

    • There is now a new wariness about triangulation in the ties between Sri Lanka, China and Pakistan in defence co-operation, though it has not been publicly expressed.
    • In 2016, India put pressure on Sri Lanka to drop a plan to buy the Chinese JF-17 Thunder aircraft made in Pakistan and co-produced by the Chinese Chengdu Aircraft Corporation.
    • The most recent threat was from excluding India from the Colombo Terminal Project.

  • China-Taiwan conflict

    The article underscores the centrality of Taiwan in the realms of semiconductor production and how that dominant spills over in geopolitics.

    Silicon shield of Taiwan

    • Taiwan’s security situation has been worsening amidst mounting economic, political and military pressure from China.
    • Any Chinese attack on Taiwan that disrupts the flow of semiconductors would produce significant challenges not only for the US but also China that relies on semiconductor supplies from Taiwan.
    • That factor appears to be preventing the crisis from boiling over into a full-scale war that could draw the US and Japan into it.
    •  It is Taiwan’s so-called “silicon shield”.

    Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor industry

    • Taiwan is the world’s leading producer of semiconductors and other electronic components.
    • The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has more than 55 per cent of the global market share in the production of high-end custom-made chips.
    • Of the two rival companies that have survived, US-based Intel is in trouble and Korea’s Samsung has challenges of its own.
    •  There will be no generation of data without the semiconductors.
    • It might be more accurate to say that “semiconductors are the new oil” and their production is increasingly dominated by Taiwan and the TMSC.

    Geopolitics over Taiwan

    • As its economic heft and political salience rose in the 21st century, China has ratcheted up pressure on countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
    • China has also compelled international organisations to push Taiwan out of their activities, even when Taiwan had much to contribute.
    • Amidst the deterioration of US-China relations in recent years, President Donald Trump was far more supportive of Taiwan than his recent predecessors.
    • The Biden team has also signalled continuity with Trump’s Taiwan policies.
    • All indications are that Washington will continue to seek some technological decoupling and diversification of sensitive supplies away from China.
    • Taiwan will inevitably be the key element in the American quest for resilient supply chains in the digital domain.

    Opportunity for India

    • Taiwan’s position as a semiconductor superpower opens the door for more intensive strategic-economic cooperation between Delhi and Taipei.
    • Part of the problem is that India’s strategic community continues to view Taiwan as an adjunct to India’s “One-China policy”.
    • India’s policy oscillates between keeping needless distance with Taipei when ties with Beijing are warm and remembering it when Sino-Indian ties enter a freeze.
    • This changed in the early 1990s, when it began to engage with Taiwan, but the policy remained a restricted one.
    • In the last few years, though, there has been a steady expansion of bilateral engagement.
    • Trade has increased from about $1 billion in 2001 to about $7 billion in 2018.
    • India has made a special effort to woo Taiwanese companies that are moving some of their production away from China.
    • India is yet to tap into the full range of commercial and technological opportunities possibilities with Taiwan.
    • This is particularly true of semiconductor production.

    Way forward

    • Delhi must begin to deal with Taiwan as a weighty entity in its own right that offers so much to advance India’s prosperity.
    • Delhi does not have to discard its “One-China policy” to recognise that Taiwan is once again becoming the lightning rod in US-China tensions.

    Consider the question “India needs to explore the opportunities in relationship with Taiwan even as it pursues and sticks to its One China policy. Comment.

    Conclusion

    As Taiwan becomes the world’s most dangerous flashpoint, the geopolitical consequences for Asia are real. Although Delhi has embraced the Indo-Pacific maritime construct, it is yet to come to terms with Taiwan’s critical role in shaping the strategic future of Asia’s waters.

  • New York Convention

    Cairn Energy has filed a case in a U.S. district court to enforce a $1.2 billion arbitration award it won in a tax dispute against India. Cairn aims to enforce the award under international arbitration rules, commonly called the New York Convention.

    New York Convention

    • The Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards is commonly known as the New York Convention.
    • It was adopted by a UN diplomatic conference on 10 June 1958 and entered into force on 7 June 1959.
    • It requires courts of contracting states to give effect to private agreements to arbitrate and to recognize and enforce arbitration awards made in other contracting states.
    • Widely considered the foundational instrument for international arbitration, it applies to arbitrations that are not considered domestic awards in the state where recognition and enforcement are sought.

    What was the case?

    • The Indian government has lost an international arbitration case to energy giant Cairn Plc over the retrospective levy of taxes and has been asked to pay damages worth $1.2 billion to the UK firm.
    • The Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague has maintained that the Cairn tax issue is not a tax dispute but a tax-related investment dispute and, hence, it falls under its jurisdiction.
    • India’s demand in past taxes, it said, was in breach of fair treatment under the UK-India Bilateral Investment Treaty.

  • The U.S. policy options and its implications for the world order

    The article spells out the U.S.’s foreign policy approach in the changing global order. Though the article doesn’t mention India, the U.S.’s policies and it’s bearing on India need no mention. From that perspective, we should follow their approach.

    Decision on the JCPOA

    • During the U.S. presidential election campaign, Joe Biden had criticised the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
    • He had then promised that subject to Iran’s compliance with its obligations, the U.S. would re-enter the agreement.
    • In office, Mr. Biden has shown little urgency on the JCPOA matter.
    • Israel has given the opposite message and said that the nuclear agreement was “bad and must not be allowed”.
    • Israel and the U.S.’s Gulf allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have also insisted that they be involved with the discussions with Iran on the revival of the agreement.

    U.S.’s Policy approach

    •  The U.S. policy is likely to show more continuity than change where the U.S.’s core interests are concerned, specifically in its ties with Russia, China and Iran.
    •  Mr. Biden is likely to reverse his predecessor Donald Trump’s personal accommodative approach towards Russia and adopt the U.S.’s traditional confrontational posture.
    • Mr. Biden’s Iran policy is likely to match Mr. Trump’s hardline approach on substantive matters.
    • This approach also panders to Iran’s regional rivals who wish to see the Islamic republic weakened and isolated.
    • There will thus be no dramatic change in the U.S.’s approach to Iran on the nuclear question.

    Regional concerns and role of global powers

    • Despite the sanctions, Iran’s regional influence remains significant.
    • The Iranian ability to mobilise militants across the region is viewed by Israel and some the Gulf Arab states as threatening their security.
    • Gulf states are also concerned about Iran’s influence with their Shia populations.
    • The capabilities of Iran’s precision missiles and drones are also a matter of regional anxiety.
    •  Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will be in a face-off with Iran and its allies, Iraq, Syria and its Shia militia.
    • Alternatively, we could see a genuine regional effort to ease tensions and promote regional confidence, spearheaded by Qatar, working with Russia and, possibly, China.
    • Perhaps, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, already facing heat from the Biden administration, will see the value of this approach.
    • Russia now an influential player in the region, China, too, with its Belt and Road Initiative, has high stakes in regional stability.
    • The Sino-Iran 25 years agreement, envisages their substantial and long-term cooperation in political, security, military, economic, energy and logistical connectivity areas.

    Consider the question “How far Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been successful in achieving its goals? How peace in the Middle East influence India’s interests?” 

    Conclusion

    The new U.S. administration will thus witness a new world order, shaped by a coalition of Russia, China and Iran, in which the U.S. is no longer the most significant role-player.