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Subject: International Stories of Key Importance

  • India-EU Relations

    Context

    • While India celebrates its 75th year of Independence, it also celebrates 60 years of diplomatic relations with the European Union (EU).
    • A cooperation agreement signed in 1994 took the bilateral relationship beyond trade and economic cooperation.

    Definition

    • Relations between the European Union and the Republic of India are currently defined by the 1994 EU–India Cooperation Agreement. The EU is a significant trade partner for India and the two sides have been attempting to negotiate a free trade deal since 2007.

    Common roadmap and shared vision

    • The road map highlights engagement across five domains: foreign policy and security cooperation; trade and economy; sustainable modernisation partnership; global governance; and people-to-people relations.

     

    Brief history

    • India-EU relations date to the early 1960s, with India being amongst the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with the European Economic Community.
    • At the 5th India-EU Summit at The Hague in 2004, the relationship was upgraded to a ‘Strategic Partnership’.
    • The two sides adopted a Joint Action Plan in 2005 (which was reviewed in 2008) that provided for strengthening dialogue and consultation mechanisms in the political and economic spheres, enhancing trade and investment, and bringing peoples and cultures together.

    What is strategic partnership?

    • A ‘strategic partnership’, as the term suggests, involves a shared understanding between the two or more states involved on the nature of threats in the environment and the place of their collective power in helping mitigate the threats.

    Why they are important?

    • As the world’s two largest democracies, the EU and India share a commitment to protecting and promoting human rights, a rules-based global order, effective multilateralism, sustainable development and open trade.

    Significance

    [A] Political Partnership

    • The Joint Political Statement signed in 1993, opened the way for annual ministerial meetings and a broad political dialogue.
    • The Cooperation Agreement signed in 1994 took the bilateral relationship beyond trade and economic cooperation.
    • A multi-tiered institutional architecture of cooperation has since been created, presided over by the India-EU Summit since 2000.
    • Today EU stands as a major reference for India’s legislative process in the field of Data security and privacy.

    [B] Economic Ties

    • Bilateral trade: The EU is India’s largest trading partner, while India is the EU’s 9th largest trading partner. It is the second-largest destination for Indian exports after the United States.
    • Investment: The EU’s share in foreign investment inflows to India has more than doubled from 8% to 18% in the last decade. This makes the EU an important foreign investor in India.
    • Preferential treatment: India is the benefactor of the unilateral preferential tariffs under the EU Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP).
    • Energy: Both sides have finalised civil nuclear cooperation agreement after 13 years of negotiations called as the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM). It involves collaboration in the civil nuclear energy sector.
    • Development cooperation: Over €150 million worth of projects by EU are currently ongoing in India. European Investment Bank (EIB) is providing loans for Lucknow, Bangalore, and Pune Metro Projects.

    [C] Defence & Security

    • EU and India have instituted several mechanisms for greater cooperation on pressing security challenges like counterterrorism, maritime security, and nuclear non-proliferation.
    • Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region in New Delhi (IFC-IOR) has recently been linked-up with the Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa (MSC-HOA) established by the EU Naval Force (NAVFOR).

    [D] Climate Change

    • EU and India also underline their highest political commitment to the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC despite US withdrawing from the same.
    • India-EU Clean Energy and Climate Partnership was agreed at the 2016 Summit – to promote access to and disseminate clean energy and climate friendly technologies and encourage R&D.
    • Energy cooperation is now ongoing on a broad range of energy issues, like smart grids, energy efficiency, offshore wind and solar infrastructure, and research and innovation.
    • EU and India also cooperate closely on the Clean Ganga initiative and deal with other water-related challenges in coordinated manner.

    [E] Research and Development

    • India-EU Science & Technology Steering Committee meets annually to review scientific cooperation.
    • Both have official mechanisms in fields such as Digital Communications, 5G technology, Biotechnology, artificial intelligence etc.
    • ISRO has a long-standing cooperation with the European Union, since 1970s. It has contributed towards the EU’s satellite navigation system Galileo.

    Future scope

    • Trade figures and Investments: Bilateral trade between the two surpassed $116 billion in 2021-22. The EU is India’s second largest trading partner after the U.S., and the second largest destination for Indian exports.
    • Job creation: There are 6,000 European companies in the country that directly and indirectly create 6.7 million jobs.
    • Green strategic partnership: between India and Denmark aims to address climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution, and the India-Nordic Summit focused on green technologies and industry transformation that are vital for sustainable and inclusive growth.
    • Energy security: Energy serves as an important aspect of the relationship between India and the EU. Given the impacts of climate change, this aspect has become extremely crucial today. Both entities have been pursuing cooperation for the joint development of clean energy.
    • Political cooperation: India and the EU may benefit from increasing cooperation in the resolution of issues such as terrorism and radicalization, cyber-security, coordinating on certain key and relevant aspects of foreign policy, and other humanitarian issues.
    • International support: It is crucial that Europe recognize India as a partner for peace that is committed to human rights, both regionally and internationally.

    Challenges before them

    • Deadlock over BTIA: The negotiations for a Broad-based Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) were held between 2007 to 2013 but have remained dormant/suspended since then.
    • Export hurdles: Indian demands for ‘Data secure’ status (important for India’s IT sector) to ease norms on temporary movement of skilled workers, relaxation of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS), etc. stands largely ignored.
    • Trade imbalance: This heavily leans towards China. India accounts for only 1.9% of EU total trade in goods in 2019, well behind China (13.8%).
    • Brexit altercations: In the longer term of balancing of global powers, a smaller Europe without the key military and economic force UK, is much weaker in the wake of an ambitious China and an increasingly protectionist US.
    • EU primarily remains a trade bloc: This has resulted in a lack of substantive agreements on matters such as regional security and connectivity.
    • Undue references to sovereign concerns: The European Parliament was critical of both the Indian government’s decision to scrap Jammu and Kashmir’s special status in 2019 and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.
    • China’s influence: EU’s affinity lies with China. This is because of its high dependence on the Chinese market. It is a major partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Ukrainian war: EAM S. Jaishankar’s witty reply about EU’s oil import from Russia has not been welcomed across the EU. It still expects India to criticize Russia.

    EU’s interests in India

    • Reducing dependence on China: It is necessary for both sides as it is making them highly vulnerable to Chinese aggression.
    • Western lobby: EU acknowledges its supply chain’s vulnerability, the risk posed by overdependence on China, and the need to strengthen the global community of democracies.
    • Healthcare: The on-going pandemic has shown the need for cooperation in global health. India and the EU have called for a reform of the World Health Organisation (WHO).
    • Perception of India as a huge market: EU still largely perceives India as huge market rather than a partner.
    • Promotion of multilateralism: Both sides are facing issues related to US-China trade war and uncertainty of the US’ policies. They have common interest in avoiding a bipolarised world and developing a rules-based order.

    India’s stakes in EU

    • Global leadership vacuum: Retreat of the U.S. from global leadership has provided opportunities for EU- India cooperation and trilateral dialogues with countries in the Middle Fast, Central Asia, and Africa.
    • Chinese Aggression: China’s increasing presence in Eurasia and South Asia is creating similar security, political and economic concerns for Europe and India.
    • Fall of the conventional global order: Trade war, crumbling WTO and break down of TPP etc. has made EU understand the economic importance of India.
    • BREXIT: Brexit is pushing India to look for new ‘gateways’ to Europe, as its traditional partner leaves the union. A renewed trade and political cooperation are the need of the hour.
    • Conformity over Indo-Pacific: The Indo-Pacific is the main conduit for global trade and energy flows. Rule-based Indo-pacific is of everyone’s interest with EU no exception.

    Way forward

    • A close bilateral relation between India and the EU has far-reaching economic, political and strategic implications on the crisis-driven international order.
    • Both sides should realise this potential and must further the growth of the bilateral ties with a strong political will.
    • As highlighted by EU strategy on India 2018, India-EU should take their relations beyond “trade lens”, recognizing their important geopolitical, strategic convergences.
    • India can pursue EU countries to engage in Indo-pacific narrative, geo-economically if not from security prism.

    Mains question

    What do you understand by the term strategic partnership? India and EU are celebrating 60 years of diplomatic relations trace their journey with significance and challenges in their ties.

     

    B2BASICS

    About European Union (EU)

    • The EU is a political and economic union of 27 member states that are located primarily in Europe.
    • The union and EU citizenship were established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force in 1993.
    • The EU grew out of a desire to strengthen international economic and political co-operation on the European continent in the wake of World War II.
    • It has often been described as a sui generis political entity (without precedent or comparison) with the characteristics of either a federation or confederation.
    • The eurozone consists of all countries that use the euro as official currency. All EU members pledge to convert to the euro, but only 19 have done so as of 2022.

    Members of the EU

    • Through successive enlargements, the European Union has grown from the six founding states (Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands) to 27 members.
    • This entails a partial delegation of sovereignty to the institutions in return for representation within those institutions, a practice often referred to as “pooling of sovereignty“.
    • In the 2016 ‘Brexit’ referendum, the UK voted to leave the EU. The UK officially left the EU in 2020

     

    Mains question

    What do you understand by the term strategic partnership? India and EU are celebrating 60 years of diplomatic relations trace their journey with significance and challenges in their ties.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

     

     

  • UN appoints new leader of UNMOGIP

    The United Nations (UN) has appointed Rear Admiral Guillermo Pablo Rios of Argentina as the Head of Mission and Chief Military Observer for the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP).

    What is UNMOGIP?

    • The first group of UN military observers arrived in the mission area on 24 January of 1949 to supervise the ceasefire between India and Pakistan in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.
    • These observers, under the command of the Military Adviser appointed by the UN Secretary-General, formed the nucleus of the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP).

    Functions of UNMOGIP

    • Following renewed hostilities of 1971, UNMOGIP has remained in the area to observe developments pertaining to the strict observance of the ceasefire of 17 December 1971 and report thereon to the UN Secretary-General.
    • The Karachi Agreement of July 1949 firmed up the role of UN-level military observers and permitted supervision of the Ceasefire Line established in Jammu and Kashmir.

    Indian contentions with UNMOGIP

    • India has not officially gone to the UNMOGIP since 1972 with complaints against Pakistan.
    • India officially maintains that the UNMOGIP’s role was “overtaken” by the Simla Agreement of 1972 that established the Line of Control or the LoC.
    • This with minor deviations followed the earlier Ceasefire Line.
    • Pakistan, however, did not accept the Indian argument and continued to seek cooperation from the UNMOGIP.
    • As a result of these divergent policies, Pakistan continues to lodge complaints with the UNMOGIP against alleged Indian ceasefire violations.

    Substantiation of India’s stance

    • Since the Simla Agreement of 1972, India has adopted a non-recognition policy towards third parties in their bilateral exchanges with Pakistan over the question regarding the state of Jammu and Kashmir.
    • Kashmir and the Pakistan-sponsored terrorism within now is largely an internal matter of India.

     

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  • In news: Commission of Global Notables

    Mexican President has proposed the setting up of a commission called ‘Commission of Global Notables’ comprising Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

    Commission of Global Notables

    • Apart from Mr. Modi, the proposed “commission of global notables” includes Pope Francis and the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
    • This is yet a proposal in writing presented to the UN
    • It is understood that the list will find mention during the annual session of the UN General Assembly that will convene in September.
    • PM Modi and other leaders of the Member States are expected to participate in the session when the global body will discuss the crises in Ukraine, Gaza Strip and the regional tension over Taiwan.

    Significance for India

    • This shows significance of India under the present regime under PM Modi. We have to admit that India’s soft power is ever increasing.
    • PM Modi has also received high honours from the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Bhutan and several other countries since since the beginning of his first stint in May 2014.
    • That apart, he has also received awards from international non-government organisations.

     

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  • Israel vs. Palestine Row over Gaza

    India has termed Gaza violence as grave concern and called for immediate resumption of talk between Israel and Palestine.

    Here we explain the roots of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the two-state solution and why it has not materialized.

    What is the Israel-Palestine conflict?

    • The land to which Jews and Palestinians lay claim to was under the Ottoman Empire and then the British Empire in early 20th century.
    • Palestinian people —the Arab people from the same area— want to have a state by the name of Palestine in that area.
    • The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is over who gets what land and how it’s controlled.
    • Jews fleeing the persecution in Europe at the time wanted to establish a Jewish state on the land which they believe to be their ancient homeland.
    • The Arab at the time resisted, saying the land was theirs.
    • The land at the time was called Palestine.
    • In 1917’s Balfour Declaration, the United Kingdom declared its support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine.
    • Arabs resisted it which led to violence.

    When did the migration begin?

    • Some 75,000 Jews migrated to Palestine from1922-26 and some 60,000 Jews emigrated in 1935, according to a history published by the University of Central Arkansas.
    • It adds that Palestinian Arabs demanded the UK to halt Jewish emigration, but the UK ignored such calls. There were violent incidents, leading to deaths of some 500 people.
    • In 1923, the British Mandate for Palestine came into effect.
    • The document was issued by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations (UN).
    • The Mandate gave the UK the responsibility for creating a Jewish national homeland in the region.
    • In 1936, the UK government, recommended the partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.

    Issue at the UN

    • In 1947, Britain referred the issue of Palestine to the UN, which came up with a partition plan.
    • It put up two proposals. One, two separate states joined economically —the majority proposal— and, two, a single bi-national state made up of autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas, the minority proposal.
    • The Jewish community approved of the first of these proposals, while the Arabs opposed them both.

    Israel declares independence

    • In May 1948, Israel declared its independence.
    • The Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt invaded the newly-declared country immediately.
    • When the war ended, Israel gained some territory formerly granted to Palestinian Arabs under the UN resolution in 1947.
    • It also retained control over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank respectively.

    The two-state solution and why it hasn’t worked out

    • The two-state solution refers to an arrangement where Israeli and Palestinian states co-exist in the region.
    • However, such a solution has not materialised over the decades.
    • As outlined in the beginning and in the briefly explained roots of the conflict, the two-state solution means two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians.

    There are four main reasons why the two-state solution has not materialized by now:

    [1] Borders

    • There is no consensus as to how to draw the lines dividing the two proposed states.
    • Many people say borders should have pre-1967 lines.
    • In 1967 Israeli-Arab war, Israel captured Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem, and Golan Heights.
    • Israel is not willing to give up these gains. It returned Sinai to Egypt in 1982.
    • Moreover, there is the question of Israeli settlements in West Bank.

    [2] Question of Jerusalem

    • Both Israel and Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital and call it central to their religion and culture.
    • The two-state solution typically calls for dividing it into an Israeli West and a Palestinian East, but it is not easy to draw the line — Jewish, Muslim and Christian holy sites are on top of one another.
    • Israel has declared Jerusalem its ‘undivided capital’, effectively annexing its eastern half, and has built up construction that entrenches Israeli control of the city.

    [3] Refugees

    • A large number of Palestinians had to flee in the 1948 War.
    • They and their descendants —numbering at 5 million— demand a right to return. Israel rejects this.
    • The return of these people would end the demographic majority of Jews, ending the idea of Israel that’s both democratic and Jewish.

    [4] Security

    • Security concerns are also central to Israel as it’s constantly harassed by terrorist group Hamas that controls Gaza Strip.
    • Hamas and other Islamist group in Gaza launch rockets into Israel time-to-time.
    • Moreover, there are also concerns of Palestinians’ attack inside Israel.
    • This year in March-April, at least 18 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks inside Israel.
    • A total of 27 Palestinians were also killed in the period, including those who carried out attacks inside Israel. Palestinians too have their concerns.
    • For Palestinians, security means an end to foreign military occupation.

    Why the two-state solution is needed?

    • Besides fulfilling the basic desire of both Jews and Arabs of their own states, supporters of two-state solutions say it must be backed because its alternatives are simply not workable.
    • A single state merging Israel, West Bank, and Gaza would reduce Jews to a minority.
    • At the same time, in such a state, Jews would be a significant minority which would mean that the Arab majority would be miffed.

    Moral reasoning too for a two-state solution

    • It says that the aspirations of one person should not be overridden for others’ aspirations.
    • It’s a struggle for collective rights between two distinct groups of people.
    • Jews are the global micro-minority with a very small piece of land to exist.
    • Depriving Israeli Jews of a Jewish state or Palestinians of a Palestinian state would represent a subordination of one group’s aspirations to someone else’s vision.

    Way forward

    • India opines that long-term peace in Israel and Palestine can be achieved only through a negotiated two-State solution leading.
    • This can be done with the establishment of a sovereign, independent and viable State of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders.

     

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  • US-Iran Nuclear talks restart with EU mediation

    Negotiators kicked off a fresh round of talks over Iran’s nuclear program in Vienna, seeking to salvage the agreement on Tehran’s atomic ambitions.

    Do you know how the enmity between Iran and the US came into reality?  We hope you have watched the Argo (2012) movie for sure!

    Context

    • After a gap of five months, Iran, Russia, China and the European countries resumed negotiations in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
    • The 2015 JCPOA agreement sought to cut Iran off a possible path to a nuclear bomb in return for lifting of economic sanctions.

    What is JCPOA?

    • The Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the JCPOA is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in July 2015.
    • Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief.

    Expected outcomes of the deal

    • Curb on the nuclear program: Proponents of the deal said that it would help prevent a revival of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
    • Increasing regional engagement: It would thereby reduce the prospects for conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.

    Background of the JCPOA

    • Iran had previously agreed to forgo the development of nuclear weapons as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, which has been in force since 1970.
    • However, after the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979, Iranian leaders secretly pursued this technology.
    • In 2007, U.S. intelligence analysts concluded that Iran halted its work on nuclear weapons in 2003 but continued to acquire nuclear technology and expertise.
    • Prior to the JCPOA, the P5+1 had been negotiating with Iran for years, offering its government various incentives to halt uranium enrichment.

    Issues with the deal

    (1) US withdrawal

    • The deal has been in jeopardy since President Donald Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018.
    • In retaliation for the US, Iran resumed some of its nuclear activities.

    (2) Iran’s insistence over sanctions removal

    • In 2021, President Joe Biden said the US will return to the deal if Iran comes back into compliance, though Iran’s leaders have insisted that Washington lift sanctions first.
    • Iran now has indicated that he will take a harder line than his predecessor in nuclear negotiations.

    Who are the participants?

    • The JCPOA, which went into effect in January 2016, imposes restrictions on Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program.
    • At the heart of negotiations with Iran were the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Germany—collectively known as the P5+1.
    • The European Union also took part. Israel explicitly opposed the agreement, calling it too lenient.
    • Some Middle Eastern powers, such as Saudi Arabia, said they should have been consulted or included in the talks because they would be most affected by a nuclear-armed Iran.

    What did Iran agree to?

    • Nuclear restrictions: Iran agreed not to produce either the highly enriched uranium or the plutonium that could be used in a nuclear weapon.
    • Monitoring and verification:  Iran agreed to eventually implement a protocol that would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog.

    What did the other signatories agree to?

    • Sanctions relief: The EU, United Nations, and United States all committed to lifting their nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. However, many other U.S. sanctions on Iran, some dating back to the 1979 hostage crisis, remained in effect.
    • Weapons embargo: The parties agreed to lift an existing UN ban on Iran’s transfer of conventional weapons and ballistic missiles after five years if the IAEA certifies that Iran is only engaged in civilian nuclear activity.

    How has the deal affected Iran’s economy?

    • Prior to the JCPOA, Iran’s economy suffered years of recession, currency depreciation, and inflation, largely because of sanctions on its energy sector.
    • With the sanctions lifted, inflation slowed, exchange rates stabilized, and exports—especially of oil, agricultural goods, and luxury items­—skyrocketed as Iran regained trading partners, particularly in the EU.
    • After the JCPOA took effect, Iran began exporting more than 2.1 million barrels per day (approaching pre-2012 levels, when the oil sanctions were originally put in place).

     

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  • UNSC

    In a first, India will host diplomats and officials from all 15 countries of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), including China, Russia and the US, for a special meeting on terrorism, in Delhi and Mumbai in October.

    Key determinants of the meet

    The special meeting will specifically focus on three significant areas:

    1. Internet and social media
    2. Terrorism financing
    3. Unmanned aerial systems

    What is Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC)?

    • The CTC is a subsidiary body of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
    • The 15-member CTC was established at the same time to monitor the implementation of the resolution.
    • In the wake of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the US, the UNSC unanimously adopted resolution 1373.
    • This among its provisions obliges all States
    1. To criminalize assistance for terrorist activities,
    2. Deny financial support and safe haven to terrorists and
    3. Share information about groups planning terrorist attacks

    Its executive body

    • Seeking to revitalize the Committee’s work, in 2004 the Security Council adopted Resolution 1535.
    • It created the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) to provide the CTC with expert advice on all areas covered by resolution 1373.
    • It was established also with the aim of facilitating technical assistance to countries, as well as promoting closer cooperation and coordination both within the UN.

    Its working

    • While the CTC is not a direct capacity provider it does act as a broker between those states or groups that have the relevant capacities and those in the need of assistance.
    • While the ultimate aim of the Committee is to increase the ability of States to fight terrorism, it is not a sanctions body nor does it maintain a list of terrorist groups or individuals.

    Significance of the event

    • India has been pushing for the UN members to adopt a Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (first proposed in 1996), which is likely to be raised during the meeting.
    • The event will showcase India’s role as a victim of terrorism as well as a country at the forefront of global counter-terrorism efforts.
    • CTC meeting in India could also pave the way for a possible visit to New York by PM Narendra Modi in December, when India will be the President of the UNSC for the entire month.

    Way ahead: Hitting the nerve

    • While terror financing was now recognised by FATF, it was necessary to build templates and “codes of conduct” for newer threats.
    • Today terror financing now includes financing through cryptocurrency and the use of drones for terror attacks.

     

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  • Taiwan between giants

    Context

    The US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan evoking strong protest from China.

    Brief history of China-Taiwan Tensions

    • Taiwan is an island about 160 km off the coast of southeastern China, opposite the Chinese cities of Fuzhou, Quanzhou, and Xiamen.
    • It was administered by the imperial Qing dynasty, but its control passed to the Japanese in 1895.
    • After the defeat of Japan in World War II, the island passed back into Chinese hands.
    • After the communists led by Mao Zedong won the civil war in mainland China, Chiang Kai-shek, the leader of the nationalist Kuomintang party, fled to Taiwan in 1949.
    • Chiang Kai-shek set up the government of the Republic of China on the island, and remained President until 1975.
    • Beijing has never recognised the existence of Taiwan as an independent political entity, arguing that it was always a Chinese province.

    The US and One-China Principle

    • With the shifting geopolitics of the Cold War, the PRC and the U.S. were forced to come together in the 1970s to counter the growing influence of the USSR.
    • This led to the US-China rapprochement demonstrated by the historic visit of then US President Richard Nixon to PRC in 1972.
    • The same year, the PRC displaced ROC as the official representative of the Chinese nation at the UN.
    • Diplomatic relations with the PRC became possible only if countries abided by its “One China Principle” — recognizing PRC and not the ROC as China.

    Why does China have a problem with Pelosi visiting Taiwan?

    • For China, the presence of a senior American figure in Taiwan would indicate some kind of US support for Taiwan’s independence.
    • This move severely undermined China’s perception of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    China’s reaction

    • Increased military exercises around Taiwa : Military exercises around Taiwan have been expanded, with Chinese aircraft intruding more frequently across the informal median line which defines the zone of operations on each side.
    • Increased naval presence: Chinese naval ships are cruising within the Taiwan Straits and around the island itself.
    • Economic sanctions have been announced, prohibiting imports of a whole range of foodstuffs from Taiwan.
    • One item which will be left out is semi-conductors, a critical import for a range of Chinese high-tech industries.
    • Taiwanese firms like the Taiwan Semi-Conductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are world leaders in the most sophisticated brands of chips imported by a large number of countries.
    •  The main target of China’s escalating response will be Taiwan.
    • Taiwan is indeed caught in the crossfire between China and the US and being a proxy in a fight between giants.

    Implications for East Asia and South East Asia

    • Forced into making a choice: Just as Taiwan is caught in a crossfire between the US and China, so are the East Asian and South East Asian countries.
    • Prefer US military presence: They feel reassured by the considerable US military presence deployed in the region and tacitly support its Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • Strong economic ties with China: However, their economic and commercial interests are bound ever tighter with the large and growing Chinese economy.
    • This having it both ways strategy is beginning to fray at the edges with the escalating tensions between the US and China.
    • Most do not wish to be forced into making a choice.

    What should be India’s approach?

    • Advantageous for India: In one sense, China’s preoccupation with its eastern ocean flank of the Yellow Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea is good for India.
    • It diminishes Chinese attention toward the Indian Ocean, India’s primary security theatre.
    • Adhere to One China Policy: Prudence demands that India hew closely to its consistent one China policy even while maintaining and even expanding non-official relations with Taiwan.
    • For the US, Japan and Australia, members of the Quad, Taiwan is a key component of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • It is not for India.

    Conclusion

    One should use the opportunity to expand India’s naval capabilities and maritime profile in this theatre before the Chinese begin to look to our extended neighbourhood with renewed interest and energy.

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  • What is the New START treaty?

    Russia is ready for talks with the United States on nuclear arms control even as Moscow and Washington have remained locked in a tense stand-off over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

    The New START, INF and the Open Skies …. Be clear about the differences of these treaties. For example- to check if their inception was during cold war era etc.

    New START Treaty

    • The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) pact limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads, missiles and bombers and is due to expire in 2021 unless renewed.
    • The treaty limits the US and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, well below Cold War caps.
    • It was signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
    • It is one of the key controls on the superpower deployment of nuclear weapons.

    Background of US-Russia Nuclear Relations

    • The US formally QUIT the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF)
    • The agreement obliged the two countries to eliminate all ground-based missiles of ranges between 500 and 5,500 km.

    When did nuclear disarmament begin?

    • In 1985, the two countries entered into arms control negotiations on three tracks.
    • The first dealt with strategic weapons with ranges of over 5,500 km, leading to the START agreement in 1991.
    • It limited both sides to 1,600 strategic delivery vehicles and 6,000 warheads.
    • A second track dealt with intermediate-range missiles and this led to the INF Treaty in 1987.
    • A third track, Nuclear, and Space Talks was intended to address Soviet concerns regarding the U.S.’s Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) but this did not yield any outcome.

    Success of INF

    • The INF Treaty was hailed as a great disarmament pact even though no nuclear warheads were dismantled.
    • As it is a bilateral agreement, it did not restrict other countries.
    • By 1991, the INF was implemented. USSR destroyed 1,846 and the US destroyed 846 Pershing and cruise missiles. 
    • Associated production facilities were also closed down.
    • INF Treaty was the first pact to include intensive verification measures, including on-site inspections.

    How has the nuclear behavior been?

    • With the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the USSR in end-1991, former Soviet allies were joining NATO and becoming EU members.
    • The U.S. was investing in missile defense and conventional global precision strike capabilities to expand its technological lead.
    • In 2001, the U.S. announced its unilateral withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty).
    • The US also blamed Russia for not complying with the ‘zero-yield’ standard imposed by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This may indicate the beginning of a new nuclear arms race.

    Implications of the New Start

    • The 2011 New START lapsed in 2021. It may meet the fate of the INF Treaty.
    • The 2018 NPR envisaged the development of new nuclear weapons, including low-yield weapons.
    • China is preparing to operate its test site year-round with its goals for its nuclear force.
    • CTBT requires ratification by U.S., China, and Iran, Israel and Egypt and adherence by India, Pakistan and North Korea. It is unlikely to ever enter into force.

    Conclusion

    • A new nuclear arms race could just be the beginning. It may be more complicated because of multiple countries being involved.
    • Technological changes are bringing cyber and space domains into contention. It raises the risks of escalation.

     

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  • INSTC

    Context

    Last week, two 40-ft containers of wood laminate sheets crossed the Caspian Sea from Russia’s Astrakhan port, entered Iran’s Anzali port, continued their southward journey towards the Arabian Sea, entered the waters at Bandar Abbas and eventually reach Nhava Shiva port in Mumbai.

    Launch of INSTC

    • The journey of containers signalled the launch of the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km multi-modal transport corridor that combines road, rail and maritime routes connecting Russia and India via central Asia and Iran.
    • The legal framework for the INSTC is provided by a trilateral agreement signed by India, Iran and Russia at the Euro-Asian Conference on Transport in 2000.
    • Since then Kazakhstan, Belarus, Oman, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Syria have signed instruments of accession to become members of the INSTC.
    • Once fully operational, the INSTC is expected to reduce freight costs by 30% and journey time by 40% in comparison with the conventional deep sea route via the Suez Canal.
    • The corridor is expected to consolidate the emerging Eurasian Free Trade Area.

    Significance for India

    • Geopolitical link: The INSTC’s launch provides missing pieces of the puzzle about India’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    • India’s investment in the INSTC is exemplified by its involvement in Iran’s Chabahar port and the construction of a 500-km Chabahar-Zahedan railway line.
    •  The India Ports Global Limited, a joint venture between the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust and Kandla Port Trust, will develop the port along with Iran’s Aria Banader.
    • IRCON International will contribute to constructing the railway line.
    • A special economic zone around Chabahar will offer Indian companies the opportunity to set up a range of industries.
    • The INSTC, thus, provides an opportunity for the internationalisation of India’s infrastructural state, with state-run businesses taking the lead and paving the way for private companies.

    Geopolitical significance for India

    • Access to Afghanistan and Central Asia: Once completed, this infrastructure will allow India access to Afghanistan and central Asia, a prospect strengthened by the Taliban government’s support for the project.
    • India can now bypass Pakistan to access Afghanistan, central Asia and beyond.
    • North-South transport corridor: The INSTC can shape a north-south transport corridor that can complement the east-west axis of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Non-alignment to multi-alignment: India’s founding role in both the INSTC and the Quad exemplify its departure from non-alignment to multi-alignment.
    • The INSTC offers a platform for India to closely collaborate with Russia, Iran and Central Asian republics. 
    • That two of its partners are subject to Western sanctions hasn’t prevented India from collaborating with the U.S., Japan and Australia as part of the Quad to create and safeguard a free and open Indo-Pacific.

    Conclusion

    As a transcontinental multi-modal corridor that aims to bring Eurasia closer together, the INSTC is a laudable initiative in its own right. That it helps India consolidate its multi-alignment strategy sweetens the deal.

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  • UN panel tells Hong Kong to repeal National Security Law

    Hong Kong’s controversial national security law should be repealed, experts on the UN Human Rights Committee said, amid concerns the legislation is being used to crack down on free speech and dissent in the former British colony.

    Why in news?

    • Chinese and Hong Kong officials have repeatedly used the NSL imposed by Beijing in 2020 to restore stability after the city was rocked for months by sometimes violent anti-government and anti-China protests in 2019.
    • The committee, which monitors the implementation of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) by state parties, released its findings on Hong Kong following a periodic review.
    • The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is a signatory to the ICCPR but China is not.

    About Hong Kong

    • A former British Colony and Autonomous Territory: Hong Kong is an autonomous territory, and a former British colony, in south-eastern China.
    • It became a colony of the British Empire at the end of the First Opium War in 1842.
    • Sovereignty over the territory was returned to China in 1997.
    • Special Administrative Region (SAR): As a SAR, Hong Kong maintains governing power and economic systems that are separate from those of mainland China.
    • The 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration guarantees the Basic Law for 50 years after the transfer of sovereignty.
    • It does not specify how Hong Kong will be governed after 2047.
    • Thus, the central government’s role in determining the territory’s future system of government is the subject of political debate and speculation in Hong kong.

    What is this law all about?

    • Hong Kong was always meant to have a security law, but could never pass one because it was so unpopular.
    • So this is about China stepping in to ensure the city has a legal framework to deal with what it sees as serious challenges to its authority.
    • The details of the law’s 66 articles were kept secret until after it was passed. It criminalises any act of:
    1. Secession – breaking away from the country
    2. Subversion – undermining the power or authority of the central government
    3. Terrorism – using violence or intimidation against people
    4. Collusion–  with foreign or external forces

    What provisions do fall under the law?

    • The law came into effect at 23:00 local time on 30 June 2020, an hour before the 23rd anniversary of the city’s handover to China from British rule.
    • It gives Beijing power to shape life in Hong Kong it has never had before.
    • Its key provisions include:
    1. Crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces are punishable by a maximum sentence of life in prison
    2. Damaging public transport facilities can be considered terrorism
    3. Those found guilty will not be allowed to stand for public office
    4. Companies can be fined if convicted under the law
    5. This office can send some cases to be tried in mainland China – but Beijing has said it will only have that power over a “tiny number” of cases
    6. In addition, Hong Kong will have to establish its own national security commission to enforce the laws, with a Beijing-appointed adviser
    7. Hong Kong’s chief executive will have the power to appoint judges to hear national security cases, raising fears about judicial autonomy
    8. Importantly, Beijing will have power over how the law should be interpreted, not any Hong Kong judicial or policy body. If the law conflicts with any Hong Kong law, the Beijing law takes priority
    9. Some trials will be heard behind closed doors.
    10. People suspected of breaking the law can be wire-tapped and put under surveillance
    11. Management of foreign non-governmental organizations and news agencies will be strengthened
    12. The law will also apply to non-permanent residents and people “from outside [Hong Kong]… who are not permanent residents of Hong Kong“.

    What has changed in Hong Kong since the law was introduced?

    • Hundreds of protestors, activists and former opposition lawmakers have been arrested since the law came into force.
    • The arrests are an ominous sign that its crackdown on Hong Kong is only going to escalate.
    • Beijing has said the law is needed to bring stability to the city, but critics say it is designed to squash dissent.

    Why did China do this?

    • Hong Kong was handed back to China from British control in 1997.
    • But under a unique agreement – a mini-constitution called the Basic Law and a so-called “one country, two systems” principle.
    • They are supposed to protect certain freedoms for Hong Kong: freedom of assembly and speech, an independent judiciary and some democratic rights – freedoms that no other part of mainland China has.
    • Under the same agreement, Hong Kong had to enact its own national security law – this was set out in Article 23 of the Basic Law – but it never happened because of its unpopularity.

    How can China do this?

    • Many might ask how China can do this if the city was supposed to have freedoms guaranteed under the handover agreement.
    • The Basic Law says Chinese laws can’t be applied in Hong Kong unless they are listed in a section called Annex III – there are already a few listed there, mostly uncontroversial and around foreign policy.
    • These laws can be introduced by decree – which means they bypass the city’s parliament.
    • Critics say the introduction of the law this way amounts to a breach of the “one country, two systems” principle, which is so important to Hong Kong – but clearly, it is technically possible to do this.

    Must read:

    [Burning Issue] National Security Law debate in Hong Kong

     

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