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  • A path to global connectivity

    Context

    As terrestrial 5G mobile networks are being rolled out across countries, there is a renewed interest in integrating Non-Terrestrial Networks.

    SatNets for 5G

    • Satellites and terrestrial networks have always been considered two independent ecosystems, and their standardisation efforts have proceeded independent of each other.
    • The primary non-terrestrial network that is being considered is the low latency Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks (SatNets), as a complement to terrestrial networks.
    • Towards this, Starlink, operated by the Elon Musk-owned SpaceX, and OneWeb, promoted by Bharti Global, have launched about 2,500 and 648 LEO satellites respectively at an altitude of about 1,200 km with the objective of promoting global broadband connectivity.
    • There are other players such as Reliance Jio in a joint venture with Luxembourg-based SES and Amazon’s Project Kuiper.

    Benefits of using SatNets

    • 1] Service continuity in emergency: service continuity to provide seamless transition between terrestrial networks and SatNets in case of public safety, disaster management and emergency situations;
    • 2] Providing service in remote area: Service ubiquity to provide 5G services in unserved and underserved areas of the world, thereby bridging the digital divide;
    • 3] Scalability: Service scalability that utilises the unique capabilities of SatNets in multicasting and broadcasting similar content over a large geographical area.
    • 4] Service to in-motion user: The LEO SatNets can provide service not only to stationary but also to in-motion users.
    • 5] Low latency over long distance: Wireless communications through LEO satellites over long distances is proven to be 1.47 times faster than communication over the same distance through terrestrial optic fibre. It is this advantage along with global coverage that provide a strong use case for LEO SatNets to complement terrestrial optic fibre networks.
    • SatNet in standardisation: In view of the above advantages, standard-setting organisations such as the Third Generation Partnership project (3GPP), comprising telcos and equipment manufacturers around the world, started integrating SatNets in the standardisation process.

    Measures by the government

    • Realising the advantages, the Government, in its National Digital Communications Policy 2018, has indicated the development of an ecosystem for local manufacturing of satellite communication systems and promoting participation of private players for the strengthening of satellite communication infrastructure in the country.
    • Accordingly, the New Space India Limited (NSIL), a public sector enterprise, was established in 2019 to re-orient space activities from a ‘supply driven’ model to a ‘demand driven’ model, thereby ensuring optimum utilisation of the space assets.
    • The Department of Space also established in 2020 a new regulatory body named the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe).
    • IN-SPACe is intended to provide a level playing field for private companies to use Indian space infrastructure.

    Issues and challenges

    • Allocation of frequency: Issues will involve addressing issues around frequencies to be allocated for satellite broadband, the methodology of allocation, the relatively higher cost of consumer equipment and the placement and interconnections of SatNets with terrestrial public landline/ mobile networks at the ground stations
    • Cost: The other major challenge in LEO SatNets is the cost of user terminal and access charges to the end users.
    • A recent research analysing both Starlink and OneWeb concludes that the standalone LEO SatNets have a distinct cost advantage only if the density is less than 0.1 person per square km compared to terrestrial broadband networks.
    • Hence it is to the advantage of LEO SatNet providers to integrate their networks with terrestrial 5G networks to improve the cost economies.

    Conclusion

    All these, along with the proposed revisions to the Satellite Communications Policy of the Government, will provide the required fillip to LEO SatNets to become an integral part of the communication infrastructure of the country.

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    Back2Basics: LEO satellites

    • LEO satellites orbit between 2,000 and 200 kilometers above the earth. LEO satellites are commonly used for communications, military reconnaissance, spying and other imaging applications.
    • A low earth orbit (LEO) satellite is an object, generally a piece of electronic equipment, that circles around the earth at lower altitudes than geosynchronous satellites.
    • Satellites made for communications benefit from the lower signal propagation delay to LEO.
    • This lower propagation delay results in less latency.
    • Being closer to the earth has an obvious benefit for many types of earth observational satellites by resolving smaller subjects with greater detail.

  • IMF flags Recession risk

    Surging inflation and sharp slowdowns in the United States and China prompted the IMF to cut its outlook for the global economy this year and next, while warning that the situation could get much worse.

    By one common definition, the major global economies are on the cusp of a recession.

    What is Recession?

    • A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts for months or even years.
    • Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative GDP, rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time.
    • Recessions are considered an unavoidable part of the business cycle—or the regular cadence of expansion and contraction that occurs in a nation’s economy.

    What causes Recessions?

    These phenomena are some of the main drivers of a recession:

    • A sudden economic shock: An economic shock is a surprise problem that creates serious financial damage. The coronavirus outbreak, which shut down economies worldwide, is a more recent example of a sudden economic shock.
    • Excessive debt: When individuals or businesses take on too much debt, the cost of servicing the debt can grow to the point where they can’t pay their bills. Growing debt defaults and bankruptcies then capsize the economy.
    • Asset bubbles: When investing decisions are driven by emotion, bad economic outcomes aren’t far behind. Investors can become too optimistic during a strong economy.
    • Too much inflation: Inflation is the steady, upward trend in prices over time. Inflation isn’t a bad thing per se, but excessive inflation is a dangerous phenomenon. Central banks control inflation by raising interest rates, and higher interest rates depress economic activity.
    • Too much deflation: While runaway inflation can create a recession, deflation can be even worse. Deflation is when prices decline over time, which causes wages to contract, which further depresses prices. When a deflationary feedback loop gets out of hand, people and business stop spending, which undermines the economy.
    • Technological change: New inventions increase productivity and help the economy over the long term, but there can be short-term periods of adjustment to technological breakthroughs. In the 19th century, there were waves of labour-saving technological improvements.

    What’s the difference between Recession and Depression?

    • Recessions and depressions have similar causes, but the overall impact of a depression is much, much worse.
    • There are greater job losses, higher unemployment and steeper declines in GDP.
    • Most of all, a depression lasts longer—years, not months—and it takes more time for the economy to recover.
    • Economists do not have a set definition or fixed measurements to show what counts as a depression. Suffice to say, all the impacts of a depression are deeper and last longer.
    • In the past century, the US has faced just one depression: The Great Depression.

    The Great Depression

    • The Great Depression started in 1929 and lasted through 1933, although the economy didn’t really recover until World War II, nearly a decade later.
    • During the Great Depression, unemployment rose to 25% and the GDP fell by 30%.
    • It was the most unprecedented economic collapse in modern US history.
    • By way of comparison, the Great Recession was the worst recession since the Great Depression.
    • During the Great Recession, unemployment peaked around 10% and the recession officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, about a year and a half.
    • Some economists fear that the coronavirus recession could morph into a depression, depending how long it lasts.

    How long do recessions last?

    • Gulf War Recession (July 1990 to March 1991): At the start of the 1990s, the U.S. went through a short, eight-month recession, partly caused by spiking oil prices during the First Gulf War.
    • The Great Recession (2008-2009): As mentioned, the Great Recession was caused in part by a bubble in the real estate market.
    • Covid-19 Recession: The most recent recession began in February 2020 and lasted only two months, making it the shortest US recession in history.

    Can we predict a recession?

    Given that economic forecasting is uncertain, predicting future recessions is far from easy. However, the following warning signs can give you more time to figure out how to prepare for a recession before it happens:

    • An inverted yield curve: The yield curve is a graph that plots the market value—or the yield—of a range. When long-term yields are lower than short-term yields, it shows that investors are worried about a recession. This phenomenon is known as a yield curve inversion, and it has predicted past recessions.
    • Declines in consumer confidence: Consumer spending is the main driver of the US economy. If surveys show a sustained drop in consumer confidence, it could be a sign of impending trouble for the economy.
    • Drop in the Leading Economic Index (LEI): Published monthly by the Conference Board, the LEI strives to predict future economic trends. It looks at factors like applications for unemployment insurance, new orders for manufacturing and stock market performance.
    • Sudden stock market declines: A large, sudden decline in stock markets could be a sign of a recession coming on, since investors sell off parts and sometimes all of their holdings in anticipation of an economic slowdown.
    • Rising unemployment: It goes without saying that if people are losing their jobs, it’s a bad sign for the economy.

    How does a recession affect individuals?

    • We may lose your job during a recession, as unemployment levels rise. It becomes much harder to find a job replacement since more people are out of work.
    • People who keep their jobs may see cuts to pay and benefits, and struggle to negotiate future pay raises.
    • Investments in stocks, bonds, real estate and other assets can lose money in a recession, reducing your savings and upsetting your plans for retirement.
    • Business owners make fewer sales during a recession, and may even be forced into bankruptcy.
    • With more people unable to pay their bills during a recession, lenders tighten standards for mortgages, car loans, and other types of financing.

     

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  • China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

    India has severely criticized the reported move by both China and Pakistan for third-party participation in some projects on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

    China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

    • The CPEC, one of the most ambitious components of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), was announced to great fanfare in 2015.
    • CPEC is a collection of infrastructure projects that are under construction throughout Pakistan beginning in 2013.
    • Originally valued at $47 billion, the value of CPEC projects is worth $62 billion as of 2020.
    • It is intended to rapidly upgrade Pakistan’s required infrastructure and strengthen its economy by the construction of modern transportation networks, numerous energy projects, and SEZs.
    • On 13 November 2016, CPEC became partly operational when Chinese cargo was transported overland to Gwadar Port for onward maritime shipment to Africa and West Asia.

    Why CPEC?

    • CPEC has consistently been held up as a “gamechanger” for Pakistan’s economy.
    • But the road to completion has proved long and winding. Reports indicate that the pace of CPEC projects has been slowing down in Pakistan in recent years.
    • At the same time, China is the only country that is heavily investing in Pakistan.

    Why in news?

    • The lack of progress has led to numerous reports about CPEC being at a near standstill in the country.
    • Gwadar, despite being the epicenter of multibillion-dollar projects, lacks basic necessities like reliable access to water and electricity, let alone other facilities.
    • The baloch freedom movement is another impediment to the stalled project.
    • There have been sporadic attacks in Gwadar and elsewhere in the province and the country to discourage Chinese investments in the province.
    • China is also seeking to deploy its Army in the CPEC projects, to which Pakistan has contested.

    India’s reservation

    • The GoI, which shares tense relations with Pakistan, objects to the CPEC project as upgrade works to the Karakoram Highway are taking place in Gilgit-Baltistan.
    • This is the territory illicitly occupied by Pakistan in 1947-48.
    • During the visit of Indian PM Modi to China in 2015, the Indian FM, Sushma Swaraj reportedly told the Chinese.
    • India did not object to the Chinese construction of the Karakoram Highway which was built between 1959 and 1979.

     

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  • Russia to leave International Space Station (ISS)

    Russia will pull out of the International Space Station (ISS) after 2024 and focus on building its own orbiting outpost.

    Why in news?

    • Russia will end a symbolic two-decade orbital partnership between Moscow and the west.

    International Space Station (ISS)

    • The ISS was launched in 1998 as part of joint efforts by the U.S., Russia, Japan, Canada and Europe.
    • The idea of a space station originated in the 1984 State of the Union address by former U.S. President Ronald Reagan.
    • The space station was assembled over many years, and it operates in low-earth orbit.
    • Since its inception, it has served as a laboratory suspended in space and has aided multiple scientific and technological developments.
    • The ISS was originally built to operate for 15 years.

    Why was ISS launched?

    • A space station permits quantum leaps in research in science, communications, and in metals and lifesaving medicines which could be manufactured only in space.
    • ISS has consistently maintained human presence for the past 21 years, providing astronauts with sophisticated technologies for scientific research.

    What is Russia’s role in maintaining the ISS?

    • The ISS is built with the cooperation of scientists from five international space agencies — NASA of the U.S., Roscosmos of Russia, JAXA of Japan, Canadian Space Agency and the European Space Agency.
    • Each agency has a role to play and a share in the upkeep of the ISS.
    • Both in terms of expense and effort, it is not a feat that a single country can support.
    • Russia’s part in the collaboration is the module responsible for making course corrections to the orbit of the ISS.
    • They also ferry astronauts to the ISS from the Earth and back.
    • Until SpaceX’s dragon spacecraft came into the picture the Russian spacecraft was the only way of reaching the ISS and returning.

     

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  • India adds five more Ramsar Sites

    India has added five more Ramsar sites, or wetlands of international importance, bringing the number of such sites in the country to 54.

    Newly added Ramsar Sites

    1. Karikili Bird Sanctuary, Pallikaranai Marsh Reserve Forest and Pichavaram Mangrove in Tamil Nadu,
    2. Sakhya Sagar in Madhya Pradesh
    3. Pala Wetlands in Mizoram

    What are Wetlands?

    • A wetland is a distinct ecosystem that is flooded by water, either permanently or seasonally, where oxygen-free processes prevail.
    • The primary factor that distinguishes wetlands from other landforms or water bodies is the characteristic vegetation of aquatic plants, adapted to the unique hydric soil.

    Significance of Wetlands

    • Wetlands provide a wide range of important resources and ecosystem services such as food, water, fibre, groundwater recharge, water purification, flood moderation, erosion control, and climate regulation.
    • They are, in fact, are a major source of water and our main supply of freshwater comes from an array of wetlands that help soak rainfall and recharge groundwater.
    • They provide many societal benefits: food and habitat for fish and wildlife, including threatened and endangered species; water quality improvement; flood storage; shoreline erosion control; economically beneficial natural products for human use; and opportunities for recreation, education, and research, etc.

     India and Ramsar Wetlands

    • India’s Ramsar wetlands are spread over 11,000 sq.km — around 10% of the total wetland area in the country — across 18 States.
    • No other South Asian country has as many sites, though this has much to do with India’s geographical breadth and tropical diversity.
    • The UK (175) and Mexico (142) — smaller countries than India — have the most Ramsar sites, whereas Bolivia spans the largest area with 1,48,000 sq.km under the Convention protection.
    • The National Wetland Inventory and Assessment compiled by the ISRO estimates India’s wetlands to span around 1,52,600 square kilometres.

    What makes Ramsar designation significant?

    • Being designated a Ramsar site does not necessarily invite extra international funds.
    • Acquiring this label helps with a locale’s tourism potential and its international visibility.

    Criteria for Ramsar site designation

    To be Ramsar site a place must meet at least one of the criteria as defined by the Ramsar Convention of 1961, such:

    1. Supporting vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered species or threatened ecological communities or,
    2. If it regularly supports 20,000 or more waterbirds or,
    3. Is an important source of food for fishes,
    4. Spawning ground,
    5. Nursery and/or migration path on which fish stocks are dependent upon.
    6. Static or flowing, fresh, brackish or salt, including areas of marine water the depth of which at low tide does not exceed six metres
    7. Does not include river channels, paddy fields, human-made water bodies/ tanks specifically constructed for drinking water purposes

    Back2Basics: Ramsar Convention

    • The Convention on Wetlands of International Importance (better known as the Ramsar Convention) is an international agreement promoting the conservation and wise use of wetlands.
    • It is the only global treaty to focus on a single ecosystem.
    • The convention was adopted in the Iranian city of Ramsar in 1971 and came into force in 1975.
    • Traditionally viewed as a wasteland or breeding ground of disease, wetlands actually provide fresh water and food and serve as nature’s shock absorber.
    • Wetlands, critical for biodiversity, are disappearing rapidly, with recent estimates showing that 64% or more of the world’s wetlands have vanished since 1900.
    • Major changes in land use for agriculture and grazing, water diversion for dams and canals, and infrastructure development are considered to be some of the main causes of loss and degradation of wetlands.

     

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  • Generation of Unique Disability IDs ramped up

    The generation of unique disability IDs (UDIDs) had increased from an average of 5,000 a day to an average of 7,000 to 9,000 daily during the 90-day Azadi Se Antodaya Tak campaign.

    Why such a move?

    • According to the 2011 Census, there were 2.68 crore people with disabilities.

    What is Unique Disability IDs (UDIDs)?

    • “Unique ID for Persons with Disabilities” project is being implemented with a view of creating a National Database for PwDs, and to issue a Unique Disability Identity Card to each person with disabilities.
    • It functions under the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment.
    • The project aims only to encourage transparency, efficiency and ease of delivering the government benefits to the person with disabilities, and ensure uniformity.
    • The project will also help in stream-lining the tracking of physical and financial progress of beneficiary at all levels of hierarchy of implementation – from village level, block level, District level , State level and National level.

    Types of disabilities covered

    As per the Persons with Disabilities (Equal Opportunities, Protection of Rights & Full Participation) Act, 1995 – A person with a disability can be defined as one with one or more of disabilities falling under any of the below-mentioned categories :

    • Blindness
    • Leprosy-cured
    • Cerebral Palsy: It means a group of non-progressive conditions of a person characterized by abnormal motor control posture resulting from brain insult or injuries occurring in the pre-natal, peri-natal or infant period of development.
    • Low vision: It means a person with impairment of visual functioning even after treatment of standard refractive correction but who uses or is potentially capable of using vision for the planning or execution of a task with appropriate assistive device;
    • Locomotor disability: It means disability of the bones, joints or muscles leading to substantial restriction of the movement of the limbs or nay form of cerebral palsy;
    • Mental retardation: It means a conditions of arrested or incomplete development of mind of a person which is specially characterized by sub normality of intelligence;
    • Mental illness: It means any mental disorder other than Mental retardation
    • Hearing Impairment: It means loss of sixty decibels or more in the better ear in the conversational range of frequencies

     

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  • Monkeypox outbreak: It’s time to act, not panic

    Context

    Monkeypox was previously limited to the local spread in central and west Africa, close to tropical rainforests, but has recently been seen in various urban areas and now in more than 50 countries.

    About monkeypox

    • A virus belonging to the poxviruses family causes a rare contagious rash illness known as monkeypox.
    • This zoonotic viral disease (a disease transmitted from animals to humans) has hosts that include rodents and primates.
    • It is a self-limiting disease with symptoms lasting two to four weeks and a case fatality rate of 3-6 per cent.
    • Symptoms: A skin rash on any part of the body could be the only presenting symptom.
    • Swollen lymph nodes are another distinguishing feature. Aside from these, other symptoms of a viral illness include fever, chills, headache, muscle or back aches, and weakness.
    • Mode of transmission: Touching skin lesions, bodily fluids, or clothing or linens that have been in contact with an infected person can result in transmission.
    • It’s also worth noting that monkeypox does not spread from person to person through everyday activities like walking next to or having a casual conversation with an infected person.
    • Treatment: Monkeypox is mostly treated by managing symptoms and preventing complications if it is diagnosed.
    •  In the minor proportion who are immunocompromised, complications can occur; pulmonary failure was the most common complication with a high mortality rate.

    Containment Measures

    • Because symptoms usually appear 5-21 days after exposure, people with rashes, sores in the mouth, rash, eye irritation or redness, or swollen lymph nodes should be monitored.
    • When symptoms appear, it is critical to isolate the infected from other people and pets, cover their lesions, and contact the nearest healthcare provider.
    • It is also critical to avoid close physical contact with others until instructed to do so by our healthcare provider.
    • It is preferable to use home isolation whenever possible.
    •  Priority should be given to educating grassroots workers about symptoms, specimen collection, disease detection, acquiring sample collection equipment, and maintaining cold storage of specimens.
    •  Increased surveillance and detection of monkeypox cases are critical for controlling the disease’s spread and understanding the changing epidemiology of this resurging disease.
    • Preventive health measures, such as avoiding infected animal or human contact and practising good hand hygiene, are the best option.

    Vaccines and drugs

    • In the US, pre exposure vaccination with JYNNEOS® is available to healthcare workers and lab workers exposed to this group of poxviruses.
    • The smallpox vaccine is 85 percent effective against the disease.
    • Another vaccine, ACAM2000, is a live vaccinia virus vaccine that is otherwise recommended for smallpox immunisation and can also be used for high-risk individuals during monkeypox outbreaks.
    • In addition, Tecovirimat, an antiviral drug used to treat smallpox, is recommended for monkeypox.
    • Challenges: Smallpox vaccination programmes have been discontinued for the past 50 years, resulting in a scarcity of effective vaccines.
    • There are approved drugs and vaccines, but they are not widely available to scale up controlling monkeypox.

    Why WHO declared it as international concern?

    •  The increase in monkeypox cases in a short span of time in many countries necessitated the declaration of public health emergency of international concern  (PHEIC) and additional research studies.
    • It is unclear whether the recent sudden outbreaks in multiple countries result from genotypic mutations that alter virus transmissibility. SARS-CoV-2 and monkeypox virus co-infection can alter infectivity patterns, severity, management, and response to vaccination against either or both diseases.
    • As a result, there is a need to improve diagnostic test efficiency.

    Way forward

    • Plan for pandemic preparedness: This is not the last such difficulty we will face, as the world is still witnessing more such public health crises.
    • Zoonotic diseases are caused by various factors, including unchecked deforestation, climate coupled with a failure to prioritise public health, poverty, and climate change.
    • Instead, a robust plan for pandemic preparedness should be accelerated, guided by a single health agenda.
    •  The world is yet to recognise emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases as a genuine threat.
    • The immediate priority is to strengthen the surveillance infrastructure, including hiring public health professionals and field workers who can participate in outbreak detection and response during many future PHEICs.

    Conclusion

    Without prioritising public health strengthening, the threat of new and re-emerging infectious diseases, as well as the enormous social and economic challenges that accompany them, is real and grave.

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  • Reforms needed in the next stage of GST

    Context

    India has completed five years under the GST regime.

    How GST has performed so far

    • Before the GST, there were multiplicity of the Centre and state levies that masked the actual incidence of tax on products, the debilitating effects of the entry tax and the uncertainty of tax rates.
    • Today, in contrast, we have a single tax across the country combined with a stability in rates and a common technology platform in the form of a GSTN.
    • Record number of registrants: The ease of payments has improved over time with the technical glitches having been slowly sorted out, leading to a record number of GST registrants – increasing from 1.08 crore in April 2018 to 1.36 crore in 2022.
    •  The revenue gains have been significant.
    • If we factor in the three-percentage point decline in the incidence of GST duty from 14.8 to 11.8 per cent as suggested by the RBI, the actual proportion in 2021-2022 would have been 7.4 per cent of the GDP (according to a recent article by Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman).

    What were the changes made to ensure the stricter compliance

    • The above improvement can be traced to stricter compliance flowing from three factors.
    • 1] Input credit only after supplier uploads invoice: Denial of input credit to the buyer without the supplier uploading the invoice.
    • 2] The introduction of e-invoicing.
    • 3] Third the introduction of e-waybills for transporters for value exceeding Rs 50,000 per consignment.
    • Greater coordination between CBIC and CBDT: Another factor is greater coordination between the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBIC) and Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) in compliance verification.

    Changes needed

    • 1] Provisions for unregistered GST suppliers: The micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) sector has been affected by the GST reforms because the large units have been reluctant to buy from them in the absence of input duty credit.
    • An important measure here would be to amend the law to provide that all units buying from unregistered GST suppliers would have to pay duty on a reverse charge basis.
    • 2] Rate rationalisation: While the revenue gains have come through better compliance, the next surge in GST revenues will have to come from an increase in the average incidence of GST duties.
    • This will require a combination of measures — phasing out of exemptions, raising of the merit rate from the present level of 5 per cent and merging the 12 per cent rate with the standard rate, whether to 16 per cent or 18 per cent.
    • 3] Inclusion of fuels and real estate: Including natural gas/ATF under GST should be considered.
    • Further reforms in the factor markets — land, real estate and energy — would require their inclusion in the GST.
    • This is essential because while the economic reforms of the 1990s restructured the product market, the factor market reforms were incomplete.
    • 4] Creation of federal institution: We need to create another institution in the form of a GST state secretariat that can bring together senior officers from the Centre and states in an institutional forum registered under the Society Act.
    • This forum could also provide a common point of contact for trade and industry to redress the grievances on non-policy matters.

    Conclusion

    As GST enters its sixth year journey, the changes suggested above will fine tune it to propel India towards $5 trillion economy.

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    Back2Basics: GST Input Tax Credit

    • Input Tax Credit means claiming the credit of the GST paid on purchase of Goods and Services which are used for the furtherance of business.
    • The Mechanism of Input Tax Credit is the backbone of GST and is one of the most important reasons for the introduction of GST.

  • A global order caught up in a swirl of chaos

    Context

    Adrift at the end of the 20th century, the world of the 21st century is proving to be highly chaotic.

    Lack of strong European leadership

    • Europe has been undergoing several major changes in recent months
    • Germany, which has steered European politics for almost two wdecades under Angela Merkel, now has a Chancellor (Olaf Scholz) who has hardly any foreign policy experience.
    • Without Germany’s steadying hand, Europe would be virtually adrift in troubled waters.
    • Emmanuel Macron may have been re-elected the President of France, but his wings have been clipped with the Opposition now gaining a majority in the French National Assembly.
    •  The United Kingdom is in deep trouble, if not disarray.
    • Consequently, at a time when actual and moral issues require both deft and firm handling, Europe appears rudderless.
    • Economic impact: Compounding this situation is the negative economic impact of the war in Ukraine.
    • What is evident already is that apart from the spiralling cost of energy, food and fertilizers, quite a few countries confront the spectre of food scarcity given that Ukraine and Russia were generally viewed as the granaries of the world.
    • Apart from this, nations do face several other problems as well, including, in some cases, a foreign exchange crisis.
    • The instruments employed by the West against Russia, such as sanctions, have not had the desired impact as far as the latter is concerned.

    Growing Russia-China closeness and its implications for Indo-Pacific

    • The situation in Europe is still to be decided, but what is also becoming obvious is that outside Europe, the conflict is beginning to take on a different dimension, leading to the emergence of new patchworks of relationships.
    • China’s growing influence in the Pacific region, including in the Indo-Pacific, and further strengthened by the entente with Russia, may hardly be a by-product of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but it has induced fresh energy into a possible conflict between two rival power blocs.
    • Asia unwilling to take sides: Understanding the changing nature of relationships in Asia, and considering that most Asian nations appear unwilling to take sides in the event of a conflict, is important.
    • No unity of purpose: Unlike the unity and the strength displayed by European nations — there is no evidence of any such unity of purpose in the event that China was to launch a conflict with Taiwan.

    Challenges for India

    • India cannot ignore the situation created by the stronger bonds between Russia and China.
    • Uncertainty about Russia: India will need to determine whether Russia can be expected to play a role as a ‘trusted friend’ of India’s.
    • Again, it would be too much to hope that in dealing with China, India can expect the same kind of support it may need from the Quad.
    • China sidelining India: China, however, seems intent on establishing its dominance and also sidelining India in Asia, which New Delhi would have discerned in the course of the virtual BRICS Summit hosted by China in June.
    • Afghanistan challenge: Apart from China, India also urgently needs to come to terms with a Taliban Afghanistan.
    • Sri Lanka Challenge: At this time, the democratic upsurge in Sri Lanka presents India with a fresh set of problems.
    • In a situation where ‘rage’ and ‘anger’ are the dominant sentiments, there is every reason for concern that even governments that have maintained a ‘hands-off’ relationship could become targets of the new forces emerging in Sri Lanka.

    Major developments in West Asia

    • The Abraham Accords in 2020, which brought about the entente between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, has been the harbinger of certain new trends in the tangled web of relationships among countries of West Asia.
    • But even as the U.S.’s relations with Arab nations in West Asia appear to weaken, Russia and China are beginning to play key roles, with Iran as the fulcrum for establishing new relationships.
    • China continues to steadily build on its connections with the region, and with Iran in particular.
    • How India is dealing with the situation: India has been making steady progress in enlarging its contacts and influence in West Asia.
    •  While the India-Israel relationship dates back to the 1990s, the India-UAE relationship has blossomed in the past couple of years.
    • India-Iran relations, however, seem to have reached a stalemate of late.
    • Issues with I2U2: India has joined a U.S.-based group, the I2U2, comprising India, Israel the UAE and the U.S.
    • Details of the new arrangements are unclear, but it is evident that the target is Iran, as China is for the Quad, injecting yet another element of uncertainty into an already troubled region.

    Implications for nuclear deterrence

    • The argument being adduced is that a wide gap exists today in regard to China and India’s nuclear deterrent capabilities, and implicitly blames India for its voluntary ban on testing and its ‘no-first-use’ doctrine from making progress in this arena.
    • What is also implied is that India could overcome the lacuna by seeking the assistance of western nations which have such capabilities and knowledge.
    • Way forward for India: It is important for India to guard against such pernicious attempts at this time to undo its carefully negotiated and structured nuclear policy and doctrine, and be inveigled into any anti-China western move on this front.

    Conclusion

    Geopolitical experts in the West confine their findings at present solely to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, believing that this alone would determine not only war and peace but also other critical aspects as well. Significant developments are also taking place in many other regions of the globe, which will have equal if not more relevance to the future of the international governance system.

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  • Indian MNCs are absent from discussions on digital policy

    Context

    Hyperactivity in the digital regulatory space in India in the form of policies, rules and guidelines signals the accelerated growth of the digital ecosystem which needs regulatory nurturing.

    Recent policy measures related to digital ecosystem

    • The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has announced the draft amendment to the IT Rules 2021 (June 2022).
    • The draft India Data Accessibility and Use Policy (February 2022),
    • National Data Governance Framework Policy (May 2022) and the new cyber security directions (April 2022).
    • Besides these, the most awaited and critical e-commerce policy and the Data Protection Bill, both of which have been in the making for at least a few years now, are likely to be announced soon.
    • This hyperactivity signals the accelerated growth of the digital ecosystem which needs regulatory nurturing.
    • The government has recently invited stakeholders to an open house discussion on the proposed changes to the IT Rules.

    Participation of Big Tech platforms  and other stakeholders in policy discussions

    • Various aspects of digital economy: Governments have been pushed to respond to myriad aspects of the digital economy — from financial sector regulation to anti-trust to data privacy.
    • With so much at stake, Big Tech platforms have upped their advocacy by hiring qualified professionals and funding empirical research, not only in India but also across the world.
    • Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and the likes are all actively engaged in policy discussions, either directly or through third parties to put forth a point of view.
    • Similarly, start-ups, think tanks, civil society organisations and academics invested in the issues of the digital economy either as users or as observers contribute to the policy discourse.

    Who is missing?

    • Indian origin multinational corporations — the Tatas, Reliance, Aditya Birla Group, Godrej, ITC, Bajaj, and Hero — have collectively contributed to the country’s development.
    • While these may not be quintessential digital companies, except for Reliance Jio, many are working towards adopting digital technologies for manufacturing, distribution, and client service.
    • Many companies now have online distribution channels that retail through intermediary platforms or their own websites.
    • The Tatas have taken the plunge into e-commerce, first with Tata Cliq and recently with Neu.
    •  Despite this, these Indian MNCs are distant from conversations on these landmark policies that will determine the future of Indian commerce.

    Government relations and outreach functions of MNCs

    • Government relations and outreach functions have always been important to big businesses.
    • At what point and in what manner MNCs interact with the government will of course vary.
    • Using a sector-specific example, all telecom companies in India committedly participate in TRAI’s open houses, industry deliberations and written submissions so that they can nudge policymakers toward industry-friendly decision-making that sits well with overall growth objectives.
    • On general concerns such as infrastructure and the ease of doing business, intervention from the industry is much more indirect and often an ex-post phenomenon, that is, after the policy has been announced.
    • The practice of multi-stakeholderism in policy formulation is present in letter, if not always in spirit.

    Policy formulation in digital economy

    • The case of the digital economy is different.
    • There are multiple opportunities and avenues for participating in dialogue.
    • Striking balance between business viability and government objectives: The policy teams of Big Tech make the most use of these channels to present their point of view and hope for reconciliation on issues, with the final policy document attempting to strike a balance between business viability and government objectives.
    • Over the last few years of active debate on critical digital policies including those on data governance, privacy, anti-trust, and intermediary liability, there has been an overwhelming presence of the Big Tech Indian start-ups competing in this space, as well as their affiliated associations.
    • Indian MNCs, for reasons unclear, has been mostly absent.

    Conclusion

    Absence of Indian MNCs resulted in is a disproportionate policy focus on keeping Big Tech in check as against creating an enabling, secure and trusted digital ecosystem in India. As many issues highlighted by Big Tech are likely to be pain points for Indian businesses as well, participation of Indian MNCs could break the “us versus them” problem plaguing policy making in India today.

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