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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Myanmar

    India and Myanmar relations: Change in dynamics by democratic triumph

    After decades of struggle, finally democracy triumphed over military junta and Myanmar parliament enters democratic era after 54 years of military rule. It’s time to glance over India-Myanmar relations and how India will be benefited from such stable democratic government.

    India and Myanmar have traditionally had much in common, with cultural, historical, ethnic and religious ties, in addition to sharing a long geographical land border and maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. Let’s see it in brief!

    How did India and Myanmar engagement begin ?

    • Myanmar is India’s bridge to east, and an important ally for growing its regional power.
    • India and Myanmar’s relationship officially got underway after the Treaty of Friendship was signed in 1951.
    • For many years, India did not open up to the authoritarian regime, and it was only over a period of time that India started engaging with the military junta of Myanmar.
    • The region’s focus has revolved around the SAARC countries and China, Myanmar is becoming increasingly important for India in both a strategic and economic context.

    What about bilateral trade ties?

    • Bilateral trade has grown from $12.4 million in 1980-81 to $2.18 billion in 2013-14.
    • Agricultural items like beans and pulses and forest based products make up nearly 90 percent of India’s imports.
    • Myanmar is also the beneficiary of a duty-free tariff preference scheme for least developed countries (LDCs).
    • Both countries also signed a border trade agreement in 1994 and have 2 trade points along their 1,643 km border.
    • India has also promoted some trade events such as the India Product Show 2012, which represented 19 Indian companies.

    But, How shared cultural links promote unique relations between both countries?

    • The two countries have shared cultural exchanges through various cultural troupes.
    • One such exchange was in 2009 when Myanmar sent a 13 member student group that attended a SAARC cultural festival in India.
    • This was followed by another major event at which the Indian embassy in Yangon organized the annual Indian Film Festival, which is a major event on the Yangon cultural calendar.

    Does India have historical bond with Myanmar?

    • Yes! Yangon was once a center for India’s independence struggle.
    • The Indian National Army (INA), formed by Indian nationalists during World War II in 1942 with the motto of Ittehad, Itmad aur Qurbani (Unity, Faith and Sacrifice).
    • Comprised over 40,000 soldiers, who fought valiantly against the British imperialist forces.
    • Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose became leader of the INA in 1943 and undertook a groundbreaking march towards Indian territories from Burmese soil with the aim of achieving Indian independence.<This time we can expect question on Netaji and his work, as we know current happenings about Netaji’s files declassified>
    • General Aung San, Burma’s independence hero, was a close friend of Netaji, the supreme commander of the INA.
    • That friendship was reflected in cordial relationship between the soldiers of the INA and their counterparts in the Burmese National Army (BNA).
    • So, it’s good to use this historical bond for building more coherent and strong relations with Myanmar.

    How Myanmar is Strategically significant to India?

    • Myanmar is strategically important to India as it is the only ASEAN country that shares a land border with India.
    • It is also the only country that can act as a link between India and ASEAN.
    • Myanmar is India’s gateway to Southeast Asia and could be the required impetus to realize India’s Look East Policy.
    • India has also decided to upgrade the Kalewa-Yargyi road segment to highway standard.
    • Myanmar would develop the Yargyi-Monywa portion, and this would help to connect Moreh in India to Mae Sot in Thailand via Myanmar.
    • This in turn would improve India’s connectivity and relationship with both Myanmar and Thailand.

    How can India become regional pivot in Asia?

    • If India is to become an assertive regional player in Asia, it has to work toward developing policies that would improve and strengthen it domestically.
    • This will encourage more confidence in its ability to lead the region and be an important global player.
    • Competition with China should also be considered and taken seriously. As China’s growing influence in the region would lead to a more one-sided dynamic in the region.
    • China has asserted itself through its soft power as well as through its trade and economic relations with Myanmar by taking up large infrastructure projects in the country.
    • India on the other hand needs to use its soft power more effectively, and at the same time strengthen itself domestically and regionally.

    What are advantages that India has over China with regard to Myanmar?

    • One is the democratic process, which results in different governments at the center and states through free and fair elections.
    • There is also the respect for institutions that are strong enough to hold the country together.
    • Finally, cooperation in different multilateral forums such as ASEAN and BIMSTEC strengthen the relationship between the 2 countries.
    • Apart from these reasons, India has sent a clear signal that while economic ties are important, it is keen to build a holistic relationship and is prepared to assist in institution building in Myanmar.

    What is the significance of Connectivity in India-Myanmar Relations? 

    <How North-Eastern region can play vital role in this?>

    • Myanmar’s vast oil and natural gas reserves and other resources make it a natural partner for many countries in the world.
    • India, being its next door neighbour, cannot be indifferent to this reality.
    • Besides, geo-political considerations, historical and civilizational links, and the ethnic overlap across their borders, have all come together to make India’s North-East the land bridge between the South and South-East Asia through Myanmar.
    • The 1,640 km-long border between Myanmar and the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram signifies the importance of this eastern neighbour for India.
    • India expects to reap various economic benefits by bolstering bilateral trade and investment, which critically depends upon better connectivity in the region.

    How bilateral cooperation agreement gives impetus to India’s Look-East Policy?

    • The strategic location of Myanmar is pivotal to India in reaching out to the economically vibrant South-East Asian countries.
    • India’s Look-East Policy envisages building infrastructure and expanding the transportation network including railroads, aimed at furthering surface connectivity in the region.
    • It is recognized that in addition to more economic contacts, such connectivity will promote social stability in the region by facilitating people-to-people contact amongst trans-border ethnic groups.
    • It is expected that insurgent outfits would lose their recruitment base once the local resources begin to be exploited and employment is generated leading to overall development. 
    • Concrete economic benefits are expected to come up in the region with establishment of border haats.
    • In addition, internal trade routes have the potential to enhance accessibility to sub-regional markets that connect Bangladesh, Myanmar and Bhutan.

    Way forward

    • The basic foundation for the relationship between India and Myanmar has been laid by previous governments, the onus is on the present Indian administration to demonstrate that it can take the relationship to a higher level.
    • India can become a strong regional player through a more proactive approach, cement India’s place in the region and grow into a powerful, global country.

     

     

    Published with inputs from Arun
  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Pacific Island Nations

    What are Pacific Island Nations (PINs)?

    • These are 14 island countries in Pacific Ocean – Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu

     

    • These countries range in land area from the largest Papua New Guinea (461,700 sq km) to the smallest Nauru (21 sq km)
    • The size of their population ranges from Papua New Guinea (7.7 million) to Niue (1,500)
    • Development indicators also vary widely with per capita income ranging from USD 27,340 (Cook Islands) to USD 1020 (Papua New Guinea)

    Why study about PINs?

    • On August 21, 2015 India hosted the second edition of Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) summit in Jaipur
    • All the 14 nations of the group participated in the summit
    • So obviously, this becomes an important topic for exam and you cannot ignore this as an unimportant grouping

    Importance of the Pacific area:

    • Though these countries are relatively small in land area and distant from India, many have large exclusive economic zones (EEZs), and offer promising possibilities for fruitful cooperation
    • The Pacific Ocean is the earth’s largest ocean covering 46% of water surface and 33% of the earth’s total surface, making it larger than the entire earth’s land area
    • It is bounded by 41 sovereign states plus Taiwan, and 22 non-independent territories
    • It is rich in marine resources and accounts for 71% of the world’s ocean fishery catch
    • The Pacific has for long been an area of geostrategic interest for countries such as the US, Japan, China, Russia, Australia, and Indonesia – large economies which lie on its boundary
    • Two developed Pacific Island countries – Australia and New Zealand – have tended to dominate regional cooperation forums such as the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF)

    Issues with PINs:

    • They are dispersed and low populated countries
    • They have logistics problems to develop their economies
    • Less manufacturing activity
    • With climate change and global warming, these countries fear of being drowned or disappeared
    • Their natural resources are being depleted day-by-day – sugar, timber etc.
    • India used to import phosphates from the Nauru Island, which is now being depleted
    • Problems in sugar market due to global vagaries

    External influences:

    #1. Australia: These countries are highly influenced by Australia due to its close proximity – for example, Australia helping the development of natural gas of Papua New Guinea etc.

    #2. China

    • China has significantly expanded its foothold in the region, from increasing business and trade ties to setting up diplomatic missions in each of these countries
    • More than 3,000 Chinese companies are already operating in these Island groups in various businesses.
    • China is now the largest bilateral donor in Fiji and the second largest in the Cook Islands, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, and Tonga
    • Last year, China provided around $2 billion credit to these nations collectively
      6 out of 14 Pacific Islands recognize Taiwan as a legitimate govt of China
    • Taiwan is already holding annual meet with these countries to engage them

    #3. These island groups are forming partnerships with EU and other economic groupings

    Where can India engage?

    #1. UNSC: These 14 nations are supporting India’s attempts to become permanent member of UNSC

    #2. Agriculture:

    • These are agriculture oriented economies
    • Major products- palm oil, sugar, and timber
    • We can do value addition to their products- copra, sugar, timber
    • They are diversifying in oil production and we are short on edible oil so this is a major area to work on
    • India can make use of the mahogany (timber) that is extensively grown in these islands, for getting raw materials for paper industry

    #3. Minerals:

    • These islands have plenty of oil, gas, and minerals in their sea beds
    • For example, the Kiribati islands, they are spread over an area that is bigger than the Indian subcontinent and have rich sources of minerals
    • India can form joint ventures and explore these minerals

    #4. Disaster Management: These islands are frequently affected by natural disasters like typhoons, earthquakes etc. India can help them in disaster management

    #5. Services sector:

    • The other biggest potential area which India can leverage from these islands is the development of services sector – IT, tourism, healthcare and fisheries
    • We can explore tourism options to these isolated beautiful spots
    • Tourism also has an advantage from the fact that there are large number of ethnic Indians in these islands
    • Many of these countries send their nationals to India for education though programmes sponsored by the Indian Council of Cultural Relations

    #6. Energy:

    • India is developing renewable energy and has set a target of 175 GW by 2022. It can help the Pacific Islands in this area and provide energy security
    • We can transplant our experience of A&N islands in establishing isolated energy grids in these countries
    • There has been lot of tree cutting for industrialisation and they are using more diesel for power. We can help them by providing assistance in renewable energy

    #7. Democracy:

    • In the past, these pacific islands have faced a threat to democracy
    • For example- there was a coup in Fiji which overthrew the democratically elected government, there was a civil war in Papua New Guinea
    • In this context, India can serve as a stable and solid partner, as it is one of the largest democracies in the world, so that these islands can have an assured trade and investment relations.

    #8. Ethnicity:

    • Unlike other proximate countries like Australia, India has intimate relations, going beyond exploration of natural resources, with these nations
    • Culturally they are linked to India. For example, Fiji has huge number of Indian ethnic population
    • We should leverage this advantage to engage & establish more intimate relations

    #9. Climate Change: India should fight for their cause in the coming UN Climate Change meetings & should see to it that these islands get enough finances for disaster mitigation

    #10. The Pacific Island groups have enthusiastically welcomed India’s offer in telemedicine, tele-education, space cooperation, fostering democracy and community activities

    #11. These countries are in need of MSME and we have good experience in developing them

    FIPIC:

    • The Forum for India–Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) was launched during PM’s visit to Fiji in November 2014

     

    • FIPIC includes 14 of the island countries – Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu

    Why FIPIC?

    • Though these countries are relatively small in land area and distant from India, many have large exclusive economic zones (EEZs), and offer promising possibilities for fruitful cooperation.
    • India’s focus has largely been on the Indian Ocean where it has sought to play a major role and protect its strategic and commercial interests
    • The FIPIC initiative marks a serious effort to expand India’s engagement in the Pacific region
    • At this moment, total annual trade of about $300 million between the Indian and Pacific Island countries, where exports are around $200 million and imports are around $100 million
    • This is a part of India’s extended Act East Policy

    Summits:

    #1. Suva, Fiji:

    • One of the key outcome of the first summit in Suva, Fiji was that top leadership of both India and Pacific Islands decided to meet at a regular interval and an annual summit was instituted in this regard
    • Other areas- visa on arrival for their nationals, funds for small business, line of credit for a co-generation power plant for Fiji, and a special adaptation fund for technical assistance and capacity building for countering global warming

    #2. Jaipur, India:

    • India announced to convene international conference on blue economy in New Delhi in 2016 and invited all the experts form the island nations
    • Set up Space Application Center, in partnership with ISRO, in any of the 14 countries and friendly port calls by the Indian Navy
    • Pacific leaders have expressed their concerns over climate change and its effect on their respective counties. India also assured them to voice their concerns and appropriate measures at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 21) in Paris
    • In return all the 14 visiting head of state/government reiterated their support to India’s bid for a permanent memberships at the reformed United Nations Security Council
    • India offered to help the Pacific Islands with their hydrography and coastal surveillance, by engaging the Indian Navy. It would help them have a better understanding of their maritime zone and strengthen security of their EEZs
    • India also announced FIPIC Trade Office at Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) to promote Trade & Investment opportunities between India & Pacific Island Countries

    Way ahead:

    • China is already on there and giving large credit, so does it mean India can not build good relations with these nations? No
    • We need to build on our advantages- health tourism, building democratic institutions which they need a lot
    • India’s strong relations with Fiji, which has considerable influence in the region, is a strong point which could help counter the growing Chinese influence
    • Relations with Fiji had improved in India’s favour in the past decade and not only those of Indian origin but also Fijians were friendly towards Indians, which worked to Indian advantage
    • Most of the economies in the region are based on agriculture, fisheries and small-scale industries and India’s capacity in these sectors is even better than Europe and China

    Published with inputs from Swapnil
  • India and Myanmar relations: Change in dynamics by democratic triumph

    After decades of struggle, finally democracy triumphed over military junta and Myanmar parliament enters democratic era after 54 years of military rule. It’s time to glance over India-Myanmar relations and how India will be benefited from such stable democratic government.

    India and Myanmar have traditionally had much in common, with cultural, historical, ethnic and religious ties, in addition to sharing a long geographical land border and maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. Let’s see it in brief!

    How did India and Myanmar engagement begin ?

    • Myanmar is India’s bridge to east, and an important ally for growing its regional power.
    • India and Myanmar’s relationship officially got underway after the Treaty of Friendship was signed in 1951.
    • For many years, India did not open up to the authoritarian regime, and it was only over a period of time that India started engaging with the military junta of Myanmar.
    • The region’s focus has revolved around the SAARC countries and China, Myanmar is becoming increasingly important for India in both a strategic and economic context.

    What about bilateral trade ties?

    • Bilateral trade has grown from $12.4 million in 1980-81 to $2.18 billion in 2013-14.
    • Agricultural items like beans and pulses and forest based products make up nearly 90 percent of India’s imports.
    • Myanmar is also the beneficiary of a duty-free tariff preference scheme for least developed countries (LDCs).
    • Both countries also signed a border trade agreement in 1994 and have 2 trade points along their 1,643 km border.
    • India has also promoted some trade events such as the India Product Show 2012, which represented 19 Indian companies.

    But, How shared cultural links promote unique relations between both countries?

    • The two countries have shared cultural exchanges through various cultural troupes.
    • One such exchange was in 2009 when Myanmar sent a 13 member student group that attended a SAARC cultural festival in India.
    • This was followed by another major event at which the Indian embassy in Yangon organized the annual Indian Film Festival, which is a major event on the Yangon cultural calendar.

    Does India have historical bond with Myanmar?

    • Yes! Yangon was once a center for India’s independence struggle.
    • The Indian National Army (INA), formed by Indian nationalists during World War II in 1942 with the motto of Ittehad, Itmad aur Qurbani (Unity, Faith and Sacrifice).
    • Comprised over 40,000 soldiers, who fought valiantly against the British imperialist forces.
    • Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose became leader of the INA in 1943 and undertook a groundbreaking march towards Indian territories from Burmese soil with the aim of achieving Indian independence.<This time we can expect question on Netaji and his work, as we know current happenings about Netaji’s files declassified>
    • General Aung San, Burma’s independence hero, was a close friend of Netaji, the supreme commander of the INA.
    • That friendship was reflected in cordial relationship between the soldiers of the INA and their counterparts in the Burmese National Army (BNA).
    • So, it’s good to use this historical bond for building more coherent and strong relations with Myanmar.

    How Myanmar is Strategically significant to India?

    • Myanmar is strategically important to India as it is the only ASEAN country that shares a land border with India.
    • It is also the only country that can act as a link between India and ASEAN.
    • Myanmar is India’s gateway to Southeast Asia and could be the required impetus to realize India’s Look East Policy.
    • India has also decided to upgrade the Kalewa-Yargyi road segment to highway standard.
    • Myanmar would develop the Yargyi-Monywa portion, and this would help to connect Moreh in India to Mae Sot in Thailand via Myanmar.
    • This in turn would improve India’s connectivity and relationship with both Myanmar and Thailand.

    How can India become regional pivot in Asia?

    • If India is to become an assertive regional player in Asia, it has to work toward developing policies that would improve and strengthen it domestically.
    • This will encourage more confidence in its ability to lead the region and be an important global player.
    • Competition with China should also be considered and taken seriously. As China’s growing influence in the region would lead to a more one-sided dynamic in the region.
    • China has asserted itself through its soft power as well as through its trade and economic relations with Myanmar by taking up large infrastructure projects in the country.
    • India on the other hand needs to use its soft power more effectively, and at the same time strengthen itself domestically and regionally.

    What are advantages that India has over China with regard to Myanmar?

    • One is the democratic process, which results in different governments at the center and states through free and fair elections.
    • There is also the respect for institutions that are strong enough to hold the country together.
    • Finally, cooperation in different multilateral forums such as ASEAN and BIMSTEC strengthen the relationship between the 2 countries.
    • Apart from these reasons, India has sent a clear signal that while economic ties are important, it is keen to build a holistic relationship and is prepared to assist in institution building in Myanmar.

    What is the significance of Connectivity in India-Myanmar Relations? 

    <How North-Eastern region can play vital role in this?>

    • Myanmar’s vast oil and natural gas reserves and other resources make it a natural partner for many countries in the world.
    • India, being its next door neighbour, cannot be indifferent to this reality.
    • Besides, geo-political considerations, historical and civilizational links, and the ethnic overlap across their borders, have all come together to make India’s North-East the land bridge between the South and South-East Asia through Myanmar.
    • The 1,640 km-long border between Myanmar and the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram signifies the importance of this eastern neighbour for India.
    • India expects to reap various economic benefits by bolstering bilateral trade and investment, which critically depends upon better connectivity in the region.

    How bilateral cooperation agreement gives impetus to India’s Look-East Policy?

    • The strategic location of Myanmar is pivotal to India in reaching out to the economically vibrant South-East Asian countries.
    • India’s Look-East Policy envisages building infrastructure and expanding the transportation network including railroads, aimed at furthering surface connectivity in the region.
    • It is recognized that in addition to more economic contacts, such connectivity will promote social stability in the region by facilitating people-to-people contact amongst trans-border ethnic groups.
    • It is expected that insurgent outfits would lose their recruitment base once the local resources begin to be exploited and employment is generated leading to overall development. 
    • Concrete economic benefits are expected to come up in the region with establishment of border haats.
    • In addition, internal trade routes have the potential to enhance accessibility to sub-regional markets that connect Bangladesh, Myanmar and Bhutan.

    Way forward

    • The basic foundation for the relationship between India and Myanmar has been laid by previous governments, the onus is on the present Indian administration to demonstrate that it can take the relationship to a higher level.
    • India can become a strong regional player through a more proactive approach, cement India’s place in the region and grow into a powerful, global country.

    Published with inputs from Arun

  • Dealing with Pakistan – Are you a Hawk or a Dove?

    Terrorist attack on Pathankot airbase after PM Modi’s Birthday Diplomacy has once again brought to spotlight challenges of dealing with Pakistan. Successive governments have tried to engage pakistan. PM vajpayee’s Bus Yatra to Lahore, Manmohan-Musharraf talks, PM Modi’s shawl diplomacy at the swearing in ceremony are some of the examples. Successive govt have also failed in their attempts to normalise relations with Pakistan. Question remains as to, what should be the best way to deal with Pakistan?

    In this article, we try to answer some of the pertinent questions related to India’s Pakistan policy through the perspective of dove and hawk.

    Some strategic commentators like to point out that there is a pattern to attack. Every attempt by India to improve relations with Pakistan has evoked this kind of response.

    1. Lahore bus trip of Vajpayee was followed by Kargil attack.
    2. Parliament was attacked after failed Agra summit.
    3. When indian forces were deployed at border in response, attack at Kaluchak.
    4. After Musharraf manmohan talk ran into rough weather, Mumbai serial train bombing and 26/11.
    5. Ufa meeting was followed by Gurdaspur attack.

    #1. Who are the elements within Pakistan who do not want normal relations between two countries?

    Dove- Apart from jihadists, there are elements within the army who do not want any sort of movement towards any sort of rapprochement. But attacks do not necessarily imply that they were sanctioned by the top brass of Pak military.

    Hawk- No evidence of split in Pakistani army. There may be differences of opinion but army remains a professional force controlled by army chief. Attackers must at least have the tacit approval of generals. Pakistani generals including Musharraf have been on record saying they use terrorists as instrument of state policy. This is part of their security doctrine.

    #2. Are these attacks timed to prevent normalisation of relations?

    Dove- Yes, certainly. Attackers do not want normal people to people relations. Pattern of their attacks bear testimony to this. They want to derail bilateral talks,

    Hawk- They attack India to bring us to accept their agenda i.e. talk on Kashmir, Baluchistan etc.   They believe,unless there’s terrorism, India won’t discuss the agenda Pakistan wants.

    #3. What about talks? Should talks be cancelled?

    Dove- There are no other options available and calling off the talk would be playing into the hands of terrorists. They should not be allowed to derail the peace process.

    Hawk- Talks can not be an end in themselves. What is more important is what do we talk about? Pakistani generals have responded to all the concession given by PM in this manner. Now talk has to be on terror and terror only.

    We also need to keep in mind, any talk with political establishment will not be successful until Pakistanis themselves are able to bring military on board

    #4. If not talk, what are the other options?

    Dove- Army is not a monolith,not everyone want bad relations with India. we should cultivate relations with the moderate elements within Pakistani establishment and civil society, create vested interests in favour of normal ties. War does not serve any purpose. There’s no alternative to talks.

    Hawk- Only answer we have been able to devise to Pak provocation is to call off the talks. 

    Answer to low intensity warfare is low intensity warfare and it’s not bomb for bomb but emasculation of state structures. India should be prepared to hit pakistan where it hurts at the time and place of its choosing. There are so many internal fissures inside pakistan. We can exploit them.

    #5. But wouldn’t unstable Pakistan be even more of a problem for India?

    Dove- Destabilizing Pak doesn’t serve India’s interests. Creation of Bangladesh hasn’t necessarily helped our security. Instability there will lead to chaos which would spill over and would be disastrous for our security and other interests.

    Hawk-  Our problem is our fear that instability in Pakistan will harm us irreparably and our premise that stability of Pak is in our interest and the fond hope that political class and civil society will one day come up. If Baluchistan, frontiers were not there, what would remain is Punjab and it would be a  weakened Punjab and its Punjab that’s creating problems.

    Let’s not discuss whether a strong Pak is good for India, or weak Pak is good for India, of course no Pak is best for India.

    #6. But why does Pakistan do it? What does it tell about the nature of Pak state?

    Dove- Defiance is essential to ensure normal disparity never fully operate. Military obviously control its pak policy and elements within military and Jihadist groups carry out such attacks to maintain control over Pak society.

    Hawk- It’s not a state with an army but army with a state. They have gone on a completely different trajectory. It is virtually becoming a theocratic state. Also there is deep criminalization of Pakistani state. Madrasas, jihadist groups, sectarian groups, organized crimes they have all become interlinked.

    #7. What should India do to prevent such attacks?

    Dove- Strengthen our own security. Carry on with talks to build positive momentum in bilateral relationship. Strengthen the hands of civilian govt there.

    Hawk- Strengthen our security. Complete the fencing. Drug smuggling is rampant which can’t happen unless there is connivance on both sides. If smugglers can sneak through, so can terrorists.

    We also need to improve our  technical capabilities. They were using mobile phones and we were not even able to pinpoint exact locations.

    We must also establish deterrence that mischief will be countered by robust action on the ground. Carrot and stick policy ie  carrot of talk and stick of robust punishment on the ground.

    #8. Can we carry out Myanmar like hot pursuit or operation like Neptune spear?

    Dove- It will only escalate tensions and won’t be in the interest of either side. There would be too much pressure from international community. There’s vast difference in the capabilities of India and USA..

    Hawk- We need to get rid of monkey of being a soft state off our back. If we so decide, we can undertake Myanmar like operation. There is a role of violence in state craft especially when we are dealing with very very violent actors.

    #9. What about the role of international community, external pressure?

    Dove- We are responsible member of international community. We should try to put pressure on Pakistan to stoop its territory from being used as launching pad for terrorism. We should not do anything that sully our image.

    Hawk- Pakistan don’t feel any pressure, why do we feel pressure of international community! Everyone knows Pak is epicenter of terrorism yet Pak cleverly plays its card of being a nuclear armed state and gets away with everything.

    Finally, something both dove and hawk agree on –

    Fact remains that Pakistan will have to come to conclusion that good relations with India are in their own interest. It’s a society in deep crisis. Frankenstein monster has come to bite its own master. There is an urgent need of a civil society movement to overhaul the whole power equation and social structure of Pak society.

  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Russia

    India-Russia relations : Momentum in transforming Strategic Partnership

     

    In late December, Indian Prime Minister made his first state visit to Russia to take part in the 16th annual bilateral summit. PM Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin used the summit to review bilateral ties across a number of areas. Let’s glance over revamped relations of India-Russia!


     

    Can we have some background of bonding legacy?

    • Relations with Russia are a key pillar of India’s foreign policy, and Russia has been a longstanding time-tested partner of India.
    • India & Russia signed “Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership” in October 2000.
    • Under the Strategic Partnership, several institutionalized dialogue mechanisms operate at both political and official levels to ensure regular interaction and follow up on cooperation activities.
    • During the visit of the Russian President to India in December 2010, the Strategic Partnership was elevated to the level of a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.

    Let’s dive into the PM’s visit for bilateral summit in Russia?

    • With the signing of sixteen agreements, this is being seen as very significant in sustaining and expanding India-Russia ties.
    • One major step taken is a deepening of India’s defense partnership with Russia for Make in India.
    • On the eve of Modi’s visit to Russia, the Indian government announced the purchase of five S-400 supersonic air defense systems from Russia, costing around $6 billion.
    • For instance, the two sides agreed that the Kamov 226 helicopter would be manufactured in India.

    How will bilateral partnership boost Make in India programme?

    • India and Russia agreed to strengthen the defense partnership in line with the “Make in India” program. So while only the public sector has been involved in defense cooperation between the two countries to date.
    • The new initiatives will encourage joint manufacturing of defense products in India and motivate the private sector to play a role in developing a strong defense manufacturing base in India.
    • It should be emphasized that “Make in India” also aims at having India emerge as an essential player in the global defense market.
    • India is forecast to spend $250 billion over the next decade upgrading its military and Russia wants to seize the opportunity to become a major part of this mission, expressing its readiness to work jointly with India on defense manufacturing.

    So, How does economic and trade cooperation matters in economic growth?

    • Enhancing trade and economic cooperation between India and Russia is a key priority for the two governments.
    • On the economic front, India and Russia decided to institutionalize the CEO’s Forum, which will meet twice a year – once in India and the other in Russia.
    • During 15th Annual Summit, the two leaders set a target of US$30 billion bilateral trade by 2025.
    • Hydrocarbons is an active area for exploring cooperation between the two countries.
    • In May 2014, ONGC and Rosneft signed an MoU for bilateral cooperation in subsurface surveys, exploration, appraisal and hydrocarbons production in the offshore Arctic region of Russia.
    • In September 2015, OVL signed an agreement with Rosneft to acquire 15% stakes in Vankorneft project.

     

    Did you know about India-Eurasian Economic Union FTA?

    • Moscow is a gateway for India to Central Asia.
    • In this regard a significant move by PM Modi was the effort to move forward on the India-Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
    • The EEU FTA will introduce the free movement of goods, capital, services and people-people contacts and provides for common transport, agriculture and energy policies, with provisions for a single currency and greater integration in the future.
    • The FTA between India and the EEU comprises of Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan.
    • It offers India access to a huge market with a population of over 180 million, with a joint GDP of an estimated $2.7 trillion.
    • As Russia tries to re-calibrate its economic orientation towards the Asian region, India, as one of the fastest growing G20 economies can be a significant partner for Russia.

    Shall we move into Political Relations?

    • Annual Summit meeting is the highest institutionalized dialogue mechanism under the Strategic Partnership between India and the Russian Federation.
    • So far, 15 Annual Summit meetings have taken place alternatively in India and Russia with the 15th Annual Summit held in New Delhi during the visit of President Putin to India on 11 December 2014.
    • During the Summit, 20 documents were signed covering cooperation in nuclear energy, defence, hydrocarbons, science & technology, trade and investment etc.
    • Prime Minister Modi and President Putin also adopted a Joint Statement “Druzhba-Dosti: A Vision for strengthening the Indian-Russian Partnership over the next decade.”

    Let’s see our Defence Cooperation with Mighty Russia?

    • India-Russia military technical cooperation has evolved from a simple buyer – seller framework to one involving joint research, development and production of advanced defence technologies and systems.
    • BrahMos Missile System, Joint design and development of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft, as well as the licensed production in India of SU-30 aircraft and T-90 tanks, are examples of such flagship cooperation.
    • An Indian contingent participated in the military parade in Moscow on 9 May 2015, during the 70th anniversary of the victory in the World War II.
    • The Inter Governmental Commission on Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC) is in place to review defence cooperation between the two countries.

    Let’s know about importance of International North-South Trade Corridor (INSTC) ?

    • The INSTC was initiated by Russia, India and Iran in September 2000.
    • To establish transportation networks among the member states and to enhance connectivity with the land locked region of Central Asia.
    • The North-South Transport Corridor is an ancient route that connected South Asia with North Europe for centuries.
    • This route was used by the European, Indian, Russian and many other foreign traders.
    • During the late 17th and early 19th centuries, Indian traders used this route to reach out to the Central Asian markets.
    • The modern day INSTC is a multi-modal transportation route linking Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran, and onward to northern Europe via St. Petersburg in Russia.

    How is it important to India to protect its strategic and economic interest?

    • The INSTC envisages movement of goods from Mumbai (India) to Bandar Abbas (Iran) by sea, from Bandar Abbas to Bandar-e-Anzali (an Iranian port on the Caspian Sea) by road.
    • Then from Bandar-e-Anzali to Astrakhan (a Caspian port in the Russian Federation) by ship across the Caspian Sea, and thereafter from Astrakhan to other regions of the Russian Federation and further into Europe by Russian railways.
    • Given India’s strategic interests in the West and the Central Asian region, and need for greater economic and energy cooperation between South, Central and the West Asian region.
    • New Delhi has stepped up its engagement to reconnect with its extended neighbourhood.

    Was there any momentum on Nuclear power deal?

    • Russia is an important partner in peaceful uses of nuclear energy and it recognizes India as a country with advanced nuclear technology with an impeccable nonproliferation record.
    • In December 2014, Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and Russia’s Rosatom signed the Strategic Vision for strengthening cooperation in peaceful uses of atomic energy between India and Russia.
    • Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP) is being built in India with Russian cooperation.
    • KKNPP Unit 1 became operational in July 2013, and attained full generation capacity on 7 June 2014.
    • While its Unit 2 is in the process of commissioning in the later part of 2015.
    • India and Russia have signed a General Framework Agreement on KKNPP Units 3 & 4 and subsequent contracts are under preparation.

    What’s Next to the geopolitical space?

    • Needless to say, defence remains at the centre-stage of the bilateral relationship, although with a diversified supplier base India is at a better position today to negotiate deals with Russia especially concerning technology transfer and co-production.
    • A sharp rise in Russia-China defense ties, the assertive foreign policy of a rising China in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship, and the China-Pakistan nexus will all encourage India to continue to strengthen ties with Russia.
    • It is clear that India-Russia relations remain vital for both countries amid a changing regional and global security environment.

    Published with inputs from Arun
  • China-Pakistan Equation: Is it India’s Dilemma?

    In April, China struck 51 agreements with all-weather ally Pakistan, including the multibillion dollar economic corridor through the PoK that will expand the communist giant’s influence in India’s neighbourhood.

    Before we deep dive, let’s first know historical background

    Kashmir_region_2004
    India claims the entire erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir based on an instrument of accession signed in 1947. Pakistan claims Jammu and Kashmir based on its majority Muslim population, whereas China claims the Shaksam Valley and Aksai Chin.

    • The origin of the Sino-Pak equation could be traced in China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), finds root to the Border Agreement of 1963, considered a milestone in China-Pakistan relations.
    • The agreement ceded the 5000 plus square mile Trans Karakorum Tract to China and served as a precursor to the Karakoram Highway, conceived later as a strategic link defining China and Pakistan’s ‘all-weather friendship’.
    • The then Defence Minister of India, Krishna Menon, elaborately enunciated India’s position on the issue at the UN, condemning the agreement as illegitimate.
    • Besides, India lodged an “emphatic protest” to China and conveyed its concerns in a letter of protest.
    • Decades down the line, while India’s policy orientation and broader claim on Gilgit Baltistan remains unchanged, its stance on Chinese investments in the Karakoram Highway, and Chinese efforts to leverage this territorial link to build a strategic corridor, is perceived to be weakening over time.

    What is the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project?

    • The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is biggest connectivity project aims to connect Gwadar Port in southwestern Pakistan to China’s northwestern autonomous region of Xinjiang, via a network of highways, railways and pipelines to transport oil and gas.
    • The economic corridor is considered central to China–Pakistan relations and will run about 3,000 km from Gwadar to Kashgar.
    • The Corridor is an extension of China’s proposed 21st century Silk Road initiative.
    • According to a Firstpost report, this is the biggest overseas investment by China announced yet and the corridor is expected to be operational within 3 years.

    Why Gwadar Port is strategically so important to China?

    • Gwadar forms the crux of the CPEC project, as it is envisaged to be the link between China’s ambitious One Belt, One Road (OBOR) in Maritime Silk Road project.
    • In total, more than $1 billion worth of projects are to be developed around the port of Gwadar by December 2017.

    But, what are the geopolitical reasons to China’s OBOR project?


    • There are compelling geopolitical reasons, such as energy security, for China to push forward with its One Belt, One Road plans at a time when its trading partners are potentially excluding it from strategic agreements.
    • Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the EU-Japan agreement show comprehensive liberalisation agendas, but do not include China and have the potential to increase trading costs.
    • In response, China plans to negotiate free-trade agreements with 65 countries along the OBOR.
    • Until now China has signed 12 free-trade agreements including Singapore, Pakistan, Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, Iceland, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
    • Further 8 are under negotiation with Japan, Korea, Australia, Sri Lanka, Norway, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Asean and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

    How will CPEC benefits to Pakistan ? Is it a Game changer for Pak?

    • China and Pakistan hope the massive investment plan will transform Pakistan into a regional economic hub as well as further boost the growing ties between Pakistan and China.
    • The CPEC is considered a significant project that seeks to cement Sino-Pakistan bilateral ties and further consolidate their strategic ties.
    • According to The Guardian, “The Chinese are not just offering to build much-needed infrastructure but also make Pakistan a key partner in its grand economic and strategic ambitions.”

    What’s the claim from India in CPEC?

    • The corridor will run through India’s periphery, more significantly, Gilgit Baltistan, claimed by India as part of the erstwhile princely state of J&K.
    • In due course, this geographical reality of the CPEC could potentially impinge upon India’s geopolitical calculations and pose a strategic challenge.

    How does China look at CPEC?

    • In December 2014, the Chinese state-run Xinhua published a statement announcing the closure of the strategic Khunjerab Pass and in the process referred to Gilgit Baltistan as part of Pakistan.
    • Until then, China had maintained that J&K was a bilateral problem/dispute between India and Pakistan.
    • Whether terming Gilgit Baltistan as part of Pakistan reflected a possible shift in the Chinese position on the J&K— a change from its previously held neutral position – was debated in the Indian media for a while.
    • In the Gilgit Baltistan segment, the CPEC project design includes a major expansion of the Karakoram Highway, establishing industrial parks in special economic zones, constructing hydropower projects, railway line and road building.
    • The project also entails building hydropower projects and motorways/highways in the so-called Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK).

    What’s the India’s claim and response to it?

    • India’s High Commissioner to Pakistan, noted: “India has no worry over the construction of Pakistan-China Economic Corridor as an economically strong Pakistan would bring stability in the region.”
    • India is yet to comprehensively articulate its approach towards the CPEC despite the fact that the corridor bodes strategic implications for India.
    • The corridor will pass through the Gilgit Baltistan region where China has invested in the past in infrastructure and hydropower projects.
    • India has occasionally raised objections to Chinese infrastructure investment in the region.
    • New Delhi’s move to raise objections to Pakistan’s plan of holding an election in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’s Gilgit-Baltistan region may appear to be an afterthought.
    • In fact, the belated assertion of a simple principle: In a dispute, express your maximal position, rather than the one you will compromise on.

    Is it India’s Dilemma?

    • Is it because of a realization that in a changed strategic landscape, the options for India vis-a-vis a project like CPEC are limited and complicated?
    • Is India conflicted about whether to engage itself in the mega connectivity network project or stay out of it in accordance with its stated position on Gilgit Baltistan and the so-called AJK?

     


     

    How does it pose a policy challenge to India?

    • Participating in the project would require a major alteration in India’s policy.
    • Overlooking the territorial dimension could be interpreted as a massive climb-down from its stated position.
    • It may even be construed as acquiescing to the China-Pakistan alliance in the region and beyond.
    • Thus, the CPEC poses a policy challenge to India on how best to strike a precarious balance between securing its strategic/territorial interests without at the same time being confrontational.
    • Charting a policy course is essential since China has, of late, through stray remarks extended an invitation for India to participate in the Silk Route ‘one route one belt’ project.

    How will CPEC get materialised despite scepticism?

    • Ironically, in Pakistan itself, there is growing cynicism about the CPEC’s prospects and feasibility because of security-related concerns and inter-provincial political discord on route preferences.
    • Nevertheless, given the Chinese determination to find a route to oil-rich West Asia through Pakistan, and the Pakistani desperation to provide every possible assurance to China about safeguarding its investments, the project is likely to be implemented, even if its scope may be limited.
    • One has to remember that China and Pakistan have weathered geographical and logistical extremes in the past to build the highest metalled road on one of the toughest terrain, i.e. the Karakoram Highway.
    • Moreover, the Pakistani decision to raise a special security division to protect Chinese workers and interests in Pakistan, indicates its resolve to implement the project in all earnestness.

    The Way forward

    • While India’s overall stance on PoK remains understated, the commencement of the CPEC warrants more serious attention than what has been accorded so far.
    • There is a need to carefully weigh the situation and devise a suitable and sustainable approach that could serve India’s long-term interests.
    • It is imperative that some of the explicit strategic concerns regarding the CPEC figure in the bilateral round of talks during the Indian Prime Minister’s forthcoming visit to Pakistan.

    What do you think on such a big triangular geostrategic politics? How will it resolved from Sino-India relations? Let us know!


     

    Published with inputs from Arun | Image: Wikipedia
  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Japan

    In the context of 21st Century, among all the bilateral relations, Indo-Japan relations have all the potential to transcend this era into an ‘Asian century’.

    This relationship, which incorporates no dispute- ideological, cultural or territorial, was embarked upon in 6th century A.D. when Bhuddhism was introduced in Japan.

    Direct exchange in modern times commenced only in Maiji era (1868-1912), when Japan set off the process of modernization. Japanese support and assistance to Netaji and INA continue to persist in popular imagination.

    Although diplomatic relations between two countries were established in 1952, it was only in august 2000 when Japanese PM Yoshiro Mori and his Indian counterpart Atal Bihari Vajpeyi set in motion ‘Global partnership in 21st century’.

    Commonalities such as shared democratic values, commitment to human rights, pluralism, open society and rule of law are foundation blocks of this global partnership.

    Backgrounder

    During World War II

    Since India was under British rule when World War II broke out, it was deemed to have entered the war on the side of the Allies. Over 2 million Indians participated in the war; many served in combat against the Japanese who conquered Burma and reached the Indian border.

    Some 67,000 Indian soldiers were captured by the Japanese when Singapore surrendered in 1942, many of whom later became part of the Indian National Army (INA). In 1944-45, the combined British and Indian forces defeated the Japanese in a series of battles in Burma and the INA disintegrated.

    Indian National Army

    • Subhas Chandra Bose, who led the Azad Hind, a nationalist movement which aimed to end the British raj through military means, used Japanese sponsorship to form the Azad Hind Fauj or Indian National Army (INA).
    • The INA was composed mainly of former prisoners of war from the British Indian Army who had been captured by the Japanese after the fall of Singapore. They joined primarily because of the very harsh, often fatal conditions in POW camps. The INA also recruited volunteers from Indian expatriates in Southeast Asia. Bose was eager for the INA to participate in any invasion of India, and persuaded several Japanese that a victory such as Mutaguchi anticipated would lead to the collapse of British rule in India.
    • The idea that their western boundary would be controlled by a more friendly government was attractive. Japan never expected India to be part of its Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
    • The Japanese Government built, supported and controlled the Indian National Army and the Indian Independence League.. Japanese forces included INA units in many battles, most notably at the U Go Offensive at Manipur. The offensive culminated in Battles of Imphal and Kohima where the Japanese forces were pushed back and the INA lost cohesion.

    Modern relations

    • At the International Military Tribunal for the Far East, Indian Justice Radhabinod Pal became famous for his dissenting judgement in favour of Japan. The judgement of Justice Radhabinod Pal is remembered even today in Japan. This became a symbol of the close ties between India and Japan.
    • A relatively well-known result of the two nations’ was in 1949, when India sent the Tokyo Zoo two elephants to cheer the spirits of the defeated Japanese empire.
    • India refused to attend the San Francisco Peace Conference in 1951 due to its concerns over limitations imposed upon Japanese sovereignty and national independence. After the restoration of Japan’s sovereignty, Japan and India signed a peace treaty, establishing official diplomatic relations on 28 April 1952, in which India waived all reparation claims against Japan.
    • This treaty was one of the first treaties Japan signed after World War II. Diplomatic, trade, economic, and technical relations between India and Japan were well established. India’s iron ore helped Japan’s recovery from World War II devastation, and following Japanese Prime MinisterNobusuke Kishi’s visit to India in 1957, Japan started providing yen loans to India in 1958, as the first yen loan aid extended by Japanese government. Relations between the two nations were constrained, however, by Cold War politics.
    • Japan, as a result of World War II reconstruction, was a U.S. ally, whereas India pursued a non-aligned foreign policy, often leaning towards the Soviet Union. Since the 1980s, however, efforts were made to strengthen bilateral ties.
    • India’s ‘Look East’ policy posited Japan as a key partner. Since 1986, Japan has become India’s largest aid donor, and remains so.
    • Relations between the two nations reached a brief low in 1998 as a result of Pokhran-II, an Indian nuclear weapons test that year. Japan imposed sanctions on India following the test, which included the suspension of all political exchanges and the cutting off of economic assistance. These sanctions were lifted three years later. Relations improved exponentially following this period, as bilateral ties between the two nations improved once again, to the point where the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe was to be the chief guest at India’s 2014 Republic Day parade.

    Complementarities: Why are both important to each other?

    • Varied factors have supported momentum of this partnership viz. India’s economic resurgence, its engagement with USA and its increasing interest and stakes in East Asia in the form of Look East Policy in 1992 and Act East Asia Policy in 2015.
    • On similar lines, for Japan, India has emerged as an alternative economic partner and important constituent of Asia’s emerging security order.
    • A transition of power is unfolding in Asian continent and the shape and substance of Indo-Japan relationship is one of its spin-off. Notwithstanding, strengthening of the Indo-Japan relations is not the only consequence of rise of china and USA’s shifting of regional policy in the form of “Rebalancing of Asia”.
    • Factors like domestic perception of the alliance partner, which is amicable, have stimulated this relationship. Japanese perception of India has also been molded by the dissenting opinion of Radha Binod Pal- the Indian judge at famous Tokyo trials – who declined to convict Japan’s top military brass as war criminal proving that Japan’s imperial history has been discounted by Indian consciousness.
    • In addition to this, personal bonding between Japanese PM and his Indian counterpart, who are leading single party majority government in respective countries, is a class by itself.

    Cooperation in Various Domains:

    Strategic cooperation

    Increment in china’s military expenditure was almost one and half times bigger in 2014 than defense outlay in 2010. This expansion is a cause of concern for both countries, since both countries are engaged in negotiation with China over Arunachal Pradesh (India) and Shenkaku Island (Japan).

    New Delhi and Tokyo are apt to hedge against USA’s possible failure in containing china’s growing assertiveness in the region in the backdrop of this era of power transition. This hedging strategy can be analyzed in three main categories-

    • Firstly, increasing bilateral defence partnership against fear of American retrenchment,
    • Secondly, economic engagement against an over-dependence on china and
    • Finally, multilateral hedge against China’s rising influence in international and regional institutions.

    Defence Cooperation

    In the sphere of defence, in 2009, 2+2 dialogue (foreign and defence ministerial) were initiated. India has always supported freedom of navigation and unimpeded lawful commerce in international waters in sync with UNCLOS vis-à-vis South China Sea dispute and East China Sea issue.

    India invited Japanese navy to participate in annual Malabar exercise in 2014 with USA in pacific waters, reviving an earlier practice of joint India-USA-Japan trilateral exercise.

    Negotiations on possible trade in defence equipments from Japan, as per Tokyo deceleration, are in the pipeline. Indian interest is in Japanese US-2 amphibious aircraft for surveillance purpose in the Indian Ocean is high. If this deal is realized then it will signify for the first time Japanese export of defence goods and technology since World War II.

    Can we collaborate in Defence?

    Collaborative projects in defence equipment and technology is under consideration.

    Tokyo has lifted ban on six Indian firms involved in defence R&D blacklisted after 1998 nuclear test, commencing towards transfer of Japanese military technology.

    Tokyo declaration of 2014 underscores the significance of strategic cooperation between two of Asia’s largest maritime democracies and castigates states indulging in expansionist policies in the region.

    In 2010 china accounted for 28% of total military spending in Asia. Its share has increased to 38% by 2014. Its DF-21d anti-ship ballistic missile is capable of targeting the entire South China Sea, Malacca Strait, most of Bay of Bengal and parts of Arabian Sea.

    After south Korea and USA jointly announced they would deploy USA Missile Defence System Terminal High Altitude Area Defence(THAAD) in South Korea in 2016 in order to devise a fitting line of regional deterrence , Japan is rushing forward to do the same.

    These strategic maneuvers dictate steps in the direction of balance of power in Asian continent, which is tilting in favor of China.

    Change in Article 9

    Japan has revised Article 9 of its Constitution to allow Japan’s self-defence forces to act more like a conventional army.

    The clause forbids Japan from using force to settle international disputes and restricts its land, air and naval forces to a strictly defensive role.

    Japan has scrapped the article to reform its pacifist, post-WW-II constitution to develop its military for collective self defence.

    Balance of military power and ever accentuating territorial and recourse nationalism in Asia has paved intensification of strategic cooperation between India and Japan.

    Although Japan controls Senkaku island, its sovereignty has been aggressively contested by China, as is evident in Beijing’s decision to establish an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the Eastern Asia in Nov. 2013.

    China’s Aggressiveness

    Chinese revisionism is also evident in South China Sea (SCS) where Beijing claims ownership over “Nine Dash Line” which if established by force, would entail that almost all of the SCS will be the exclusive economic zone of China.

    SCS is endowed with fossil fuels and vital for merchant and international free navigation given the fact that 71% international cargo passes through this region.

    Hague Arbitration Tribunal in Phillipines V/S China case in 2016 rejected China’s claim Of Nine Dash Line and the historic rights of Middle Kingdom off the hand. But China does not subscribe to UNCLOS, adding to tensions in the region.

    On the Himalayan side, transgressions in Demchok, Ladakh, Chumar and Depsang areas tell a story of territorial hunger of China.

    Although India-China relations look normal but distrust lingers deep within, which is a fallout of 4000 km. long Himalayan border dispute resulting from 1962 war.

    Indian side has suspicion for huge investment sponsored by china in developing port and deep underwater ports (which can be used for military purpose) in India’s neighborhood through Maritime Silk Route Project.

    This is owing to the fact that it resembles China’s earlier policy of “String of Pearls” theory – encirclement of India through a series of ports in different maritime countries in India’s neighbourhood.

    Development of Kyaukphu port and deep underwater port at Maday island (Arakan coast ) in Myanmar nearby North East region of India and development of Gwadhar port in Pakistan near Western India is supposed to be a part of this grand scheme.

    In addition to this, Great Coco Island and Little Coco Island are controlled by Myanmar. Since the early 1990s, there have been frequent reports of China using those islands for military and naval purposes but there is no certain proof of whether the islands are actually under Chinese control.

    Thus, Chinese presence on the Coco Islands, developing intelligence systems and other naval facilities, is unnerving for nearby India.

    While it is yet not certain whether the Great Coco island hosts Chinese intelligence systems, there is greater acknowledgement on the building of runways and other connectivity infrastructure on the Cocos.

    This represents an array of attempts by China to intrude into the Indian ocean region to surround India from all four corners.

    Economic cooperation

    For 2011-12 India-Japan bilateral trade stood at $18.31 billion. The comprehensive trade pact between India and Japan aims to double bilateral trade nearly to $25 billion.

    Japan is looking to boost trade and investment ties with India. The reasons behind this interest in India is obvious. India offers a large domestic market base.

    Besides, mutual synergies between businesses in the two countries are driving initiatives-

    • Firstly, Japan’s ageing population (23% above 65 years) and India’s youthful dynamism (over 50% below 25 years)
    • Secondly, Japan is a relatively labour scarce, capital abundant country that complements India’s rich spectrum of human capital.
    • Thirdly, India’s prowess in the software sector lends synergy to Japan’s excellence in the hardware sector
    • Fourthly India’s abundance of raw materials and minerals matches well with Japan’s capabilities in technology and capital to produce knowledge-intensive manufactured goods
    • Fifthly India’s large domestic market has been the main factor for investments by Japanese companies.
    • Sixthly Japanese small and medium enterprises have begun to discover India as the new growth market.

    The majority of investments are in traditional fields like machinery, automobiles and auto parts . Japan and India share a common vision for the world. This is aptly illustrated by the fact that there has been an increase in the number of joint declarations, delegation visits and other business events between the two countries.

    India Japan CEPA

    The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Japan came into force in August 2011.Despite this agreement India-Japan bilateral trade stands at measly USD16 billion as compared to Sino-Indian trade amounting to USD 70 billion and Sino-Japanese trade at whooping amount of USD 343 billion in 2014 .

    The agreement had two major concerns, namely: the infrastructure in India, and non-tariff barriers in Japan. On the infrastructure front, the two countries are collaborating on the huge, US $90-billion Delhi–Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) project.

    The project agreement appears highly promising in the environment of the new manufacturing policy whereby India is targeting to increase the share of manufacturing in GDP to 25 percent within a decade, potentially creating 100 million jobs.

    Japan had invested in dedicated freight corridor west project, strategic port facility in Chennai, development of strategic assets including highways and dams in North East Region where India’s immediate neighbor is eyeing for territorial expansion.

    Japan has set up multi product SEZ and clusters, custom free and warehousing zones ( in Neemrana in Rajsthan ) leading to greater economic integration in Asia. In 2014 Kyoto-Kashi pact was signed between two countries wherein Kashi became as popular as ‘city of ten-thousand shrines’ in ‘land of rising sun’.

    Under this agreement Kyoto and Kashi will prepare a detailed roadmap for making Kashi a ‘smart city’, retaining its rich culture,tradition and heritage.

    Tariff & Non Tariff barriers – an obstruction?

    • An important factor affecting Indo-Japan trade is the tariff and non- tariff barriers imposed by both countries. Japan has placed import prohibitions and quantitative restrictions on imports from India, for example, on fish and silk items.
    • Japan’s Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) are major barriers to Indian exports of poultry, meat, shrimps and fruits like mangoes and grapes. This issue highlights the need for sharing and facilitating the exchange of technology under the agreement to promote Indian exports to Japan.
    • Engaging Japan economically is important as India is biggest recipient of Japan’s ODA. India is also premium destinations for foreign direct investment from Japan.
    • Attracting Japanese investment, technology and business is crucial for transforming India into Asia’s new production line. There is a strategic rationale behind economic engagement of India with Japan.
    • India is far more comfortable with Japanese businesses investing in development of strategic assets of infrastructure but Chinese investment in infrastructure is seen with concerns and suspicions due to security reasons and mistrust, even when such investment can resolve some of the trade imbalance of India with china.
    • For Japan economic partnership is shaped by realpolitik too. Japanese investment was very vital for Chinese miracle as china has been highest recipient of Japanese aid between 1980-2003. Greater economic integration with china has not translated into political trust between two countries, hence boundary disputes has escalated.
    • During Indian Pm visit to Japan 2014 two countries have announced ‘India-Japan Investment Promotion Partnership’. Japan has promised to invest more than USD 35 billion in India.
    • ODA and private investment is biggest foreign investment by any single country into India. Substantial contract on export of rare earth minerals from India to Japan is on anvil, which would offset Japan’s reliance on china for supply.
    • Both India and Japan are concerned that their growing economic interdependence on China might make the Indian and Japanese economies more vulnerable to Beijing’s economic coercion.
    • Secondly, both the nations are exasperated by china’s strategy of deploying surrogates in East and South Asia primarily North Korea and Pakistan, to wear both the countries out.
    • The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) a USD 45 billion project traversing through highly sensitive Karakoram border region of India is one of the examples.

    India-Japan Economic and Commercial Cooperation

    • Complementarities between the two countries
    • Japan’s ageing population (23% above 65 years) and India’s youthful dynamism (over 50% below 25 years);
    • India’s rich natural and human resources and Japan’s advanced technology;
    • India’s prowess in services and Japan’s excellence in manufacturing;
    •  Japan’s surplus capital for investments and India’s large and growing markets and the middle class.
    • The signing of the historic India-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and its implementation from August 2011 is expected to further accelerate growth of trade, economic and commercial relations between the two countries.
    • Japan has been extending bilateral loan and grant assistance to India since 1958. Japan is the largest bilateral donor to India. Japanese ODA supports India’s efforts for accelerated economic development particularly in priority areas like power, transportation, environmental projects and projects related to basic human needs. For example New Delhi metro network. The Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC), The Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor with eight new industrial townships, The Chennai-Bengaluru Industrial Corridor (CBIC) India’s primary exports to Japan have been petroleum products, chemicals, elements, compounds, non-metallic mineral ware, fish & fish preparations, metalliferous ores & scrap, clothing & accessories, iron & steel products, textile yarn, fabrics and machinery etc.
    • Japanese FDI into India grew exponentially from US$ 139 million in 2004 to all time high of US$ 5551 million in 2008. Currently FDI from Japan to India was US$ 1.7 billion during January-December 2014. Japanese FDI has mainly been in automobile, electrical equipment, telecommunications, chemical and pharmaceutical sectors.
    • The number of Japanese affiliated companies in India has grown significantly over the years.
    • 13 big infrastructure projects to be financed by ODA loans such as Metro projects both in Chennai and Ahmedabad and road network connectivity in our Northeastern states.

    India and Japan signed a Protocol for amending the existing Convention for the avoidance of double taxation and for the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income which was signed in 1989. The protocol provides for

    • Internationally accepted standards for effective exchange of information on tax matters including bank
    • information and information without domestic tax interest.
    • The information received from Japan in respect of a resident of India can be shared with other law
    • enforcement agencies with authorisation of the competent authority of Japan and vice versa.
    • Both India and Japan shall provide assistance to each other in the collection of revenue claims.
    • Exemption of interest income from taxation in the source country with respect to debt-claims insured by the Government/Government owned financial institutions.

    Multilateral cooperation domain:

    Despite being benefited by USA’s uni-polarity, multilateral-ism has emerged as cornerstone of contemporary foreign policy of both the nations.

    Joint statement of 2006 incorporated “cooperation in multilateral forums like UN,SAARC, EAS and ARF”. The impulse for multilateralism stems for desire to make 21st century as Asian century through working for peace and stability in the region, providing better connectivity and greater regional integration.

    Although undercurrent of fears of China’s hegemony in the Asia and USA’s declining clout in global affairs also boost force of multilateralism supported by India and Japan.

    Significant agenda for New Delhi and Tokyo is to reform UNSC. Both demand democratization of UNSC and both claim permanent membership in this regard. Post WWII international security architecture with Beijing as only Asian representative in UNSC with veto power ensures that China will continue to enjoy extraordinary leverage in the region.

    So maintaining a status quo is in favor of china as it does not support claim either by India or by Japan. China’s opposition has further cemented the Indo-Japanese relationship wherein countries declared solidarity for each-other’s positions demanding permanent membership and formed G-4 including Germany and Brazil too.

    India was included into East Asia summit membership (ASEAN 3+3) on behest of Japan along with Australia and New Zealand despite protest by China.

    India shows its appreciation for current Japanese PM’s initiative to help Bangladesh in developing the region around the Bay Of Bengal though ” Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt” or BIG -B initiative.

    Japan’s active involvement in this region offsets china’s growing economic and strategic influence in India’s neighborhood. Two course shares similar view of establishing peace and stability in Afghanistan and has invested into Afghanistan’s prosperity and development. India and Japan institutionalize trilateral strategic dialogue partnership with USA in 2011.

    These trilateral initiative has serious potential to transform into ‘Quad of Democracies’ (including Australia) in the Indo-Pacific region.

    Nuclear Conundrum

    Issue of civilian nuclear technology cooperation remains a constraint in realizing true potential of this strategic partnership. Japan’s anti-nuclear stance often conflicts with India’s aspiration of to be a nuclear power.

    Tokyo however has relented and supported India-USA Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement at IAEA and  NSG, given the responsible nuclear state history of India.

    India and Japan has started discussion on a Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Agreement in 2010. For India, nuclear cooperation with Japan is essential to consummate indo-USA nuclear deal owing to the fact that Westinghouse is Toshiba’s subsidiary and Mitshubishi has a technical cooperation agreement with General Electric.

    Even crucial components of nuclear reactors offered by French nuclear consortium -Areva- are manufactured in Japan.India also needs Japan’s support for NSG membership but later has expressed reservations citing New Delhi’s lack of commitment to nuclear disarmament, especially at CTBT and FMCT.

    Nuclear disaster at Fukushima Daiichi plant in 2011 had also derailed ongoing consultations. Japan’s preconditions to such an agreement includes stringent inspections of Indian civilian nuclear facilities, termination of agreement in case of India conducts nuclear test and India’s abdication of right to enrich or reprocess fuel of Japanese origin(rule of origin i.e. fagging and benchmarking).

    Tokyo has attached significance to ratification to CTBT and a unilateral moratorium on production of fissile material.For India, the benchmark for bilateral civilian cooperation deal has been already fixed by Indo-USA nuclear deal and India will not go more than what it has committed to its civilian nuclear pact with USA.

    Notwithstanding, having accepted the IAEA’s ‘Additional Protocols’ which allows IAEA to conduct extensive inspection of India’s civilian nuclear programme, India have affirmatively addressed one of the Japan’s major concerns.

    In the backdrop of CTBT being discriminatory and instrument to maintain status- quo in favor of recognized nuclear states, India replies with “Not Now, Not Ever” approach in words of former diplomat Arundhati Ghosh.

    With a responsible nuclear doctrine in 1998 itself India had adhered to unilateral moratorium on nuclear test. In addition to this, China and USA has not ratified CTBT yet, so India has no strategic rationale to move forward and ratify it. Same line of argument goes for the FMCT issue too.

    Nonetheless Japan in recent times is going ahead with Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement very eagerly owing to economic compulsion resulting from global economic slowdown, which augurs well for India.

    What Lies Ahead?

    India and Japan are two powerful democratic forces in Asia which are searching for more options to work and prosper jointly.

    Economic front needs to be strengthened to reach “Low Hanging Fruit of Asia” wherein demographic dividend of the India and other Asian countries can be deployed to benefit Asia as whole.

    Both need to join hand to establish peace and order in not only disturbed region of Asia but of the whole world.

    Recent Developments

    Japanese PM Visit to India(2015)

    • Mr. Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, visited India from 11 to 13 December, 2015.
    • Japan has always been a significant economic partner of India, but not a strategic one. Now, both on the economic and strategic fronts, the India-Japan relationship is being transformed.

    Important Outcomes

    1. Nuclear agreement signed

    • Reached broad agreement on civil nuclear cooperation after five years of wrangling.
    • This will clear the way for American firms — which source key equipment in Japan – to sell nuclear reactors to India.
    • Commerce aside, this agreement is also symbolically important because Japan was one of India’s most vocal critics after New Delhi’s 1998 nuclear tests.
    • This is part of India’s decade-long process of progressive nuclear rehabilitation.

    2. Defense and Security relationship

    • New linkages between the Indian and Japanese air forces and coast guards.
    • Indian training for Japan’s counterterrorism capabilities.
    • Agreements to share classified military information.
    • Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology.
    • India’s decision to invite Japan as a ‘formal partner’ to the US-India Malabar naval exercises.
    • This will passively balance Chinese power. This will complement other initiatives of
    • India like US-India-Japan trilateral at the foreign minister level in October and a US-India-Australia trilateral at a slightly lower level in June.

    3. Trade and Investment

    • Japan will create a $12bn-facility to support Japanese companies investing in India to further our Make in India objective
    • As part of the broader Japanese support for Indian infrastructure, memorandum of cooperation on the high speed Shinkansen rail system between Mumbai and Ahmedabad to be financed with a highly concessional yen loan has been signed.

    Upgrading civilian infrastructure in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

    India and Japan are in talks to collaborate on upgrading civilian infrastructure in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

    • The first project being discussed is a modest one — a 15-megawatt diesel power plant on South
    • Andaman Island.
    • To counter china’s growing influence, India is building strategic relations with Japan, Australia and
    • the United States, as well as regional powers like Vietnam.

    Way forward

    • India’s Act East policy — of which the India-Japan relationship is a core strand — is important not just
    • For boosting investment but also signaling to China.
    • It is also to strengthen India’s voice in regional debates, whether on economic or security issues,
    • such that India will be in a position to shape emerging economic and security architectures as they form, rather than accommodate to them afterwards.
    • As a recent RAND study noted, ‘Southeast Asia sees India primarily as a security partner, while India primarily sees Southeast Asia as a trade partner’. The more that India accepts the garb of security partner, the more pivotal its role in Asia and its voice in debates.

    US-JAPAN-INDIA TRILATERAL MEET

    The foreign ministers of India, Japan and the US met in New York in the first such trilateral engagement between the three countries with an eye on China’s growing influence in the world.

    • The foreign ministers underscored the importance of international law and peaceful settlement of disputes, freedom of navigation and overflight and unimpeded lawful commerce, including in the South China Sea.
    • The US maintains the South China Sea is international water, and sovereignty in the area should be determined by the UN.
    • With China getting more assertive, the US is looking to marshal allies in the region to take a strategic role.
    • India’s participation in this new trilateral forum along with the US and its most important Asian-Pacific ally marks a new benchmark in India’s integration into the US “Pivot to Asia”—Washington’s drive to militarily-strategically isolate and encircle China.
    • The US has long been pressing India to join US-led trilateral and quadrilateral initiatives with Japan and its other key military partner in the region, Australia.
    • “The U.S. concept of Asia Pivot revolves around isolating China and creating a block of Regional and Extra Regional 2nd tier powers to strategically suffocate China in the 21st century. These 2nd tier powers include India, Australia and Japan.”
    • The three Ministers discussed maintaining maritime security through greater collaboration and appreciated Japan’s participation in the 2015 Malabar naval exercise. Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief also featured in the first trilateral ministerial meet.
    • China had objected to the participation of Japan, Australia and Singapore in Malabar 2007 exercise, which was hosted by India in the Bay of Bengal.
    • To promote regional economic linkages, the three Ministers launched an expert-level group on regional connectivity to identify collaborative efforts, including between south and southeast Asia.

    IFS Officer Nayantara D with Honourable Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan. She is currently serving as the Third Secreatry, Embassy of Seoul.

    (D)PM Modi Visit to Japan(2016)

    Prime Minister Modi recently visited Japan at the invitation of Prime Minister of Japan Abe. The two Prime Ministers held wide-ranging consultations.

    Outcomes of the visit

    Synergising the partnership-∙ Both countries undertook a comprehensive review of the Special Strategic and Global Partnership as outlined in the “India and Japan Vision 2025” and acknowledged the significant progress in bilateral relations over the past two years.

    Enhanced space and cooperation on global challenges- such as climate change, countering terrorism and violent extremism, reform of the United Nations (UN) including the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), as well as maintaining rules-based international order.

    Building stronger partnership for stable and safe world

    Emphasis on rising importance of Indo-Pacific region- stressed the core values of democracy, peace, therule of law, tolerance, and respect for the environment in realising pluralistic and inclusive growth of the region.

    Consolidation of security and defence cooperation- welcomed two Defence Framework Agreements concerning the Transfer of Defence Equipment and Technology and concerning Security Measures for the Protection of Classified Military Information.

    Deepening bilateral security and defence dialogues, through the “2+2” Dialogue, Defence Policy Dialogue, Military-to-Military Talks and Coast Guard-to-Coast Guard co-operation.

    Partnership for prosperity-∙ A dedicated task force to be set up comprising representatives of both countries to develop a concrete roadmap for phased transfer of technology and “Make in India.” Cooperation on the human resource development in the manufacturing sector in India through “Manufacturing Skill Transfer Promotion Programme.”

    The two Prime Ministers noted the growing collaboration between India and Japan in the modernisation and expansion of conventional railway system in India.

    To build upon cooperation in the field of smart cities to develop smart islands by initiating consultations to identify technologies, infrastructure, development strategies and management processes facilitating development of smart islands in an efficient and effective manner.

    Cooperation for a cleaner and greener future

    Recognised the importance of access to reliable, clean and affordable energy and welcomed the JapanIndia Energy Partnership Initiative laid by the Japan-India 8th Energy Dialogue held in January 2016.

    Commitment to work together in developing the rules for successful implementation of the Paris Agreement on Climate change.

    Signed the Agreement for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy which reflects a new level of mutual confidence and strategic partnership in the cause of clean energy, economic development and a peaceful and secure world.

    Foundation of a Future-oriented Partnership– Both the countries signed the following MoUs-

    • MOU between JAXA and ISRO concerning Cooperation in the Field of Outer Space
    • MoU between Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Republic of India and The Japan Agency for MarineEarth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) on Mutual Collaboration in Marine and Earth Science and Technology.
    • Will advance of academic research in the field of Earth Sciences for the benefit of the peace and human welfare.
    • Will enhance capability in the field of atmospheric and climate research, ocean technology observation and hazard mitigation in case of tsunami, earthquakes and other phenomenon.
    • Will boost our “Blue Economy” with better research and exploration of marine resources.

    INDO-JAPAN NUCLEAR DEAL

    Summary:

    The annual strategic dialogue between India and Japan which began in 2009 has now come to fruition with the signing the nuclear cooperation agreement in Tokyo during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit.

    • Japan has civil nuclear treaties with 13 countries, including the US, France and Russia, but this is the first with a nation that is not part of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).

    Background:

    India and Japan were at loggerheads since 1998 when India conducted its nuclear tests. Japan was the country that took it the hardest. It put all political exchanges with India on hold, froze aid and announced economic sanctions within hours. A thaw in ties didn’t come until 2001, when sanctions were lifted. And then, in 2009, the two countries began an annual strategic dialogue.

    india-and-japan-nuclear-deal

    Why both countries took so much time to sign this deal?

    The deal had been proposed six years ago and till very recently, it seemed that the process would not be concluded.

    • The two prime ministers had signed a memorandum of understanding last December but the thorny issues of Japanese companies’ liability for nuclear accidents, the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel, and the consequences of any future testing of nuclear weapons by India, remained on the table.
    • The last stage of negotiations on the deal was keenly watched due to a “nullification clause”, which sought automatic cancellation of the agreement if India resorts to nuclear testing in the future.
    • Another sticking point has been India’s refusal to sign the NPT, as it considers the treaty unfair to the developing world.

    What’s there in the new deal?

    • Nullification clause issue was resolved by annexing a separate memorandum to the treaty which specifies that Japan can suspend cooperation if India breaches its no-testing pledge to the NSG.
    • India conceded to Japan on another clause which says that Japan can notify India of the termination of the pact with one year’s notice.

    Why this deal was important for India?

    • Apart from the Russian reactors, India’s planned nuclear reactors with France and US also depend on Japanese parts. Moreover, GE, Westinghouse, and Areva, the companies planning reactors in India, have important ownership stakes of Japanese companies such as Hitachi, Toshiba and Mitsubishi, which were stopped by the Japanese government from doing business with India without a final nuclear deal. This deal will help guarantee Japan’s continued support to India’s civil nuclear programme for generation of clean and cheap power.
    • Reservations in Japan against nuclear energy have hardened after the Fukushima accident. Tokyo’s support to the deal so far is therefore an indication of the importance it accords to relations with India.
    • The agreement is also important for the message of trust it would convey to Nuclear Suppliers Group members in a year the country hopes to have its admission accepted. It gives a much-needed moral boost.
    • The move will also boost the meagre, and dipping, bilateral trade of $15 billion, and lift the strategic military and defence relationship.

    What’s in it for Japan?

    This deal will mainly help Japan for economical reasons as companies like Mitsubishi and Hitachi are also in the nuclear energy field, and they are running in loss ever since the Fukushima disaster.

    These companies are frantically looking for new markets to expand in and there could be no better place than energy starved India. Japan had initially opposed the Indo-US Nuclear deal, as India wasn’t a member of NSG but later changed its position after realizing that its going to be the sole loser in the lucrative Indian market.

    Why few countries are opposing this deal?

    They say, signing a nuclear trade deal with a country that has shunned the treaty designed to stop the spread of nuclear weapons is itself a big mistake. Besides, the agreement contains many questionable and worrisome elements. For instance, the pact doesn’t make it clear whether India has to immediately shut down reactors using Japanese technology when it carries out a nuclear test.

    Way ahead:

    Now, Japanese Prime Minister must bring the deal to Parliament in early 2017 to ensure that the commercial agreement for Westinghouse’s six reactors in Andhra Pradesh that is due in June 2017 comes through. This will also coincide with the next plenary of the NSG. Both New Delhi and Tokyo must also be wary of the impact on Beijing of this new stage in their ties.

    China has been hedging against deeper Japan-India ties in Asia by investing in its relationship with Russia and Pakistan. As the two Asian rivals to China, India and Japan might need the partnership even more in the days to come, as the U.S. President-elect has indicated a lower level of interest in “playing policeman” in the region.

    Conclusion:

    Japan now follows eight other nations, including the US, France and Russia, in entering into a pact with India. It signals a wider acceptance of India’s status as a responsible actor.

    Overall, given the economic, nonproliferation, and regional power balance issues examined above, it is clear that full-fledged Japan-India civil nuclear cooperation is fundamentally a development to be welcomed. The question remains regarding whether India is likely to conduct further testing of nuclear weapons and how such tests would impact the bilateral agreement.