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Subject: International Relations

  • INSTC

    Context

    Last week, two 40-ft containers of wood laminate sheets crossed the Caspian Sea from Russia’s Astrakhan port, entered Iran’s Anzali port, continued their southward journey towards the Arabian Sea, entered the waters at Bandar Abbas and eventually reach Nhava Shiva port in Mumbai.

    Launch of INSTC

    • The journey of containers signalled the launch of the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km multi-modal transport corridor that combines road, rail and maritime routes connecting Russia and India via central Asia and Iran.
    • The legal framework for the INSTC is provided by a trilateral agreement signed by India, Iran and Russia at the Euro-Asian Conference on Transport in 2000.
    • Since then Kazakhstan, Belarus, Oman, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Syria have signed instruments of accession to become members of the INSTC.
    • Once fully operational, the INSTC is expected to reduce freight costs by 30% and journey time by 40% in comparison with the conventional deep sea route via the Suez Canal.
    • The corridor is expected to consolidate the emerging Eurasian Free Trade Area.

    Significance for India

    • Geopolitical link: The INSTC’s launch provides missing pieces of the puzzle about India’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    • India’s investment in the INSTC is exemplified by its involvement in Iran’s Chabahar port and the construction of a 500-km Chabahar-Zahedan railway line.
    •  The India Ports Global Limited, a joint venture between the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust and Kandla Port Trust, will develop the port along with Iran’s Aria Banader.
    • IRCON International will contribute to constructing the railway line.
    • A special economic zone around Chabahar will offer Indian companies the opportunity to set up a range of industries.
    • The INSTC, thus, provides an opportunity for the internationalisation of India’s infrastructural state, with state-run businesses taking the lead and paving the way for private companies.

    Geopolitical significance for India

    • Access to Afghanistan and Central Asia: Once completed, this infrastructure will allow India access to Afghanistan and central Asia, a prospect strengthened by the Taliban government’s support for the project.
    • India can now bypass Pakistan to access Afghanistan, central Asia and beyond.
    • North-South transport corridor: The INSTC can shape a north-south transport corridor that can complement the east-west axis of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Non-alignment to multi-alignment: India’s founding role in both the INSTC and the Quad exemplify its departure from non-alignment to multi-alignment.
    • The INSTC offers a platform for India to closely collaborate with Russia, Iran and Central Asian republics. 
    • That two of its partners are subject to Western sanctions hasn’t prevented India from collaborating with the U.S., Japan and Australia as part of the Quad to create and safeguard a free and open Indo-Pacific.

    Conclusion

    As a transcontinental multi-modal corridor that aims to bring Eurasia closer together, the INSTC is a laudable initiative in its own right. That it helps India consolidate its multi-alignment strategy sweetens the deal.

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  • UN panel tells Hong Kong to repeal National Security Law

    Hong Kong’s controversial national security law should be repealed, experts on the UN Human Rights Committee said, amid concerns the legislation is being used to crack down on free speech and dissent in the former British colony.

    Why in news?

    • Chinese and Hong Kong officials have repeatedly used the NSL imposed by Beijing in 2020 to restore stability after the city was rocked for months by sometimes violent anti-government and anti-China protests in 2019.
    • The committee, which monitors the implementation of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) by state parties, released its findings on Hong Kong following a periodic review.
    • The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is a signatory to the ICCPR but China is not.

    About Hong Kong

    • A former British Colony and Autonomous Territory: Hong Kong is an autonomous territory, and a former British colony, in south-eastern China.
    • It became a colony of the British Empire at the end of the First Opium War in 1842.
    • Sovereignty over the territory was returned to China in 1997.
    • Special Administrative Region (SAR): As a SAR, Hong Kong maintains governing power and economic systems that are separate from those of mainland China.
    • The 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration guarantees the Basic Law for 50 years after the transfer of sovereignty.
    • It does not specify how Hong Kong will be governed after 2047.
    • Thus, the central government’s role in determining the territory’s future system of government is the subject of political debate and speculation in Hong kong.

    What is this law all about?

    • Hong Kong was always meant to have a security law, but could never pass one because it was so unpopular.
    • So this is about China stepping in to ensure the city has a legal framework to deal with what it sees as serious challenges to its authority.
    • The details of the law’s 66 articles were kept secret until after it was passed. It criminalises any act of:
    1. Secession – breaking away from the country
    2. Subversion – undermining the power or authority of the central government
    3. Terrorism – using violence or intimidation against people
    4. Collusion–  with foreign or external forces

    What provisions do fall under the law?

    • The law came into effect at 23:00 local time on 30 June 2020, an hour before the 23rd anniversary of the city’s handover to China from British rule.
    • It gives Beijing power to shape life in Hong Kong it has never had before.
    • Its key provisions include:
    1. Crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces are punishable by a maximum sentence of life in prison
    2. Damaging public transport facilities can be considered terrorism
    3. Those found guilty will not be allowed to stand for public office
    4. Companies can be fined if convicted under the law
    5. This office can send some cases to be tried in mainland China – but Beijing has said it will only have that power over a “tiny number” of cases
    6. In addition, Hong Kong will have to establish its own national security commission to enforce the laws, with a Beijing-appointed adviser
    7. Hong Kong’s chief executive will have the power to appoint judges to hear national security cases, raising fears about judicial autonomy
    8. Importantly, Beijing will have power over how the law should be interpreted, not any Hong Kong judicial or policy body. If the law conflicts with any Hong Kong law, the Beijing law takes priority
    9. Some trials will be heard behind closed doors.
    10. People suspected of breaking the law can be wire-tapped and put under surveillance
    11. Management of foreign non-governmental organizations and news agencies will be strengthened
    12. The law will also apply to non-permanent residents and people “from outside [Hong Kong]… who are not permanent residents of Hong Kong“.

    What has changed in Hong Kong since the law was introduced?

    • Hundreds of protestors, activists and former opposition lawmakers have been arrested since the law came into force.
    • The arrests are an ominous sign that its crackdown on Hong Kong is only going to escalate.
    • Beijing has said the law is needed to bring stability to the city, but critics say it is designed to squash dissent.

    Why did China do this?

    • Hong Kong was handed back to China from British control in 1997.
    • But under a unique agreement – a mini-constitution called the Basic Law and a so-called “one country, two systems” principle.
    • They are supposed to protect certain freedoms for Hong Kong: freedom of assembly and speech, an independent judiciary and some democratic rights – freedoms that no other part of mainland China has.
    • Under the same agreement, Hong Kong had to enact its own national security law – this was set out in Article 23 of the Basic Law – but it never happened because of its unpopularity.

    How can China do this?

    • Many might ask how China can do this if the city was supposed to have freedoms guaranteed under the handover agreement.
    • The Basic Law says Chinese laws can’t be applied in Hong Kong unless they are listed in a section called Annex III – there are already a few listed there, mostly uncontroversial and around foreign policy.
    • These laws can be introduced by decree – which means they bypass the city’s parliament.
    • Critics say the introduction of the law this way amounts to a breach of the “one country, two systems” principle, which is so important to Hong Kong – but clearly, it is technically possible to do this.

    Must read:

    [Burning Issue] National Security Law debate in Hong Kong

     

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  • India’s role in UN Peacekeeping Missions

    Two BSF personnel recently got martyrdom who were part of the UN Peacekeeping Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

    Why in news?

    • A total 175 Indian peacekeepers have so far died while serving with the United Nations.
    • India has lost more peacekeepers than any other UN Member State.

    What is United Nations Peacekeeping?

    • UN Peacekeeping helps countries navigate the difficult path from conflict to peace.
    • UN peacekeepers are often referred to as Blue Berets or Blue Helmets because of their light blue berets or helmets) can include soldiers, police officers, and civilian personnel.

    UNPKF in operation

    • Since 1948, UN Peacekeepers have undertaken 71 Field Missions.
    • There are approximately 81,820 personnel serving on 13 peace operations led by UNDPO, in four continents currently.
    • This represents a nine-fold increase since 1999.
    • A total of 119 countries have contributed military and police personnel to UN peacekeeping.
    • Currently, 72,930 of those serving are troops and military observers, and about 8,890 are police personnel.

    India’s contribution to UN Peacekeeping

    • India has a long history of service in UN Peacekeeping, having contributed more personnel than any other country.
    • To date, more than 2,53,000 Indians have served in 49 of the 71 UN Peacekeeping missions established around the world since 1948.
    • Currently, there are around 5,500 troops and police from India who have been deployed to UN Peacekeeping missions, the fifth highest amongst troop-contributing countries.
    • India has also provided and continues to provide, eminent Force Commanders for UN Missions.
    • India is the fifth largest troop contributor (TCC) with 5,323 personnel deployed in 8 out of 13 active UN Peacekeeping Missions, of which 166 are police personnel.

    History of India’s contribution

    • India’s contribution to UN Peacekeeping began with its participation in the UN operation in Korea in the 1950s.
    • This is where India’s mediatory role in resolving the stalemate over prisoners of war in Korea led to the signing of the armistice that ended the Korean War.
    • India chaired the five-member Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission, while the Indian Custodian Force supervised the process of interviews and repatriation that followed.
    • The UN entrusted the Indian armed forces with subsequent peace missions in the Middle East, Cyprus, and the Congo (since 1971, Zaire).
    • India also served as Chair of the three international commissions for supervision and control for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos established by the 1954 Geneva Accords on Indochina.

    Role of women in Indian Peacekeeping

    • India has been sending women personnel on UN Peacekeeping Missions.
    • In 2007, India became the first country to deploy an all-women contingent to a UN Peacekeeping Mission.
    • The Formed Police Unit in Liberia provided 24-hour guard duty and conducted night patrols in the capital Monrovia, and helped to build the capacity of the Liberian police.
    • These women officers not only played a role in restoring security in the West African nation but also contributed to an increase in the number of women in Liberia’s security sector.

    Medical care as part of India’s Missions

    • In addition to their security role, the members of the Indian Formed Police Unit also organized medical camps for Liberians, many of whom have limited access to health care services.
    • Medical care is among the many services Indian Peacekeepers provide to the communities in which they serve on behalf of the Organization.
    • They also perform specialized tasks such as veterinary support and engineering services.

    India’s views on UN Peacekeeping

    • India is of the view that the international community must grasp the rapid changes that are underway in the nature and role of contemporary peacekeeping operations.
    • The Security Council’s mandates to UN Peacekeeping operations need to be rooted in ground realities, and co-related with the resources provided for the peacekeeping operation.
    • It is critical that troop and police contributing countries should be fully involved at all stages and in all aspects of mission planning.
    • There should be greater financial and human resources for peace-building in post-conflict societies, where UNPKOs have been mandated, according to officials.

     

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  • China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

    India has severely criticized the reported move by both China and Pakistan for third-party participation in some projects on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

    China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

    • The CPEC, one of the most ambitious components of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), was announced to great fanfare in 2015.
    • CPEC is a collection of infrastructure projects that are under construction throughout Pakistan beginning in 2013.
    • Originally valued at $47 billion, the value of CPEC projects is worth $62 billion as of 2020.
    • It is intended to rapidly upgrade Pakistan’s required infrastructure and strengthen its economy by the construction of modern transportation networks, numerous energy projects, and SEZs.
    • On 13 November 2016, CPEC became partly operational when Chinese cargo was transported overland to Gwadar Port for onward maritime shipment to Africa and West Asia.

    Why CPEC?

    • CPEC has consistently been held up as a “gamechanger” for Pakistan’s economy.
    • But the road to completion has proved long and winding. Reports indicate that the pace of CPEC projects has been slowing down in Pakistan in recent years.
    • At the same time, China is the only country that is heavily investing in Pakistan.

    Why in news?

    • The lack of progress has led to numerous reports about CPEC being at a near standstill in the country.
    • Gwadar, despite being the epicenter of multibillion-dollar projects, lacks basic necessities like reliable access to water and electricity, let alone other facilities.
    • The baloch freedom movement is another impediment to the stalled project.
    • There have been sporadic attacks in Gwadar and elsewhere in the province and the country to discourage Chinese investments in the province.
    • China is also seeking to deploy its Army in the CPEC projects, to which Pakistan has contested.

    India’s reservation

    • The GoI, which shares tense relations with Pakistan, objects to the CPEC project as upgrade works to the Karakoram Highway are taking place in Gilgit-Baltistan.
    • This is the territory illicitly occupied by Pakistan in 1947-48.
    • During the visit of Indian PM Modi to China in 2015, the Indian FM, Sushma Swaraj reportedly told the Chinese.
    • India did not object to the Chinese construction of the Karakoram Highway which was built between 1959 and 1979.

     

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  • A global order caught up in a swirl of chaos

    Context

    Adrift at the end of the 20th century, the world of the 21st century is proving to be highly chaotic.

    Lack of strong European leadership

    • Europe has been undergoing several major changes in recent months
    • Germany, which has steered European politics for almost two wdecades under Angela Merkel, now has a Chancellor (Olaf Scholz) who has hardly any foreign policy experience.
    • Without Germany’s steadying hand, Europe would be virtually adrift in troubled waters.
    • Emmanuel Macron may have been re-elected the President of France, but his wings have been clipped with the Opposition now gaining a majority in the French National Assembly.
    •  The United Kingdom is in deep trouble, if not disarray.
    • Consequently, at a time when actual and moral issues require both deft and firm handling, Europe appears rudderless.
    • Economic impact: Compounding this situation is the negative economic impact of the war in Ukraine.
    • What is evident already is that apart from the spiralling cost of energy, food and fertilizers, quite a few countries confront the spectre of food scarcity given that Ukraine and Russia were generally viewed as the granaries of the world.
    • Apart from this, nations do face several other problems as well, including, in some cases, a foreign exchange crisis.
    • The instruments employed by the West against Russia, such as sanctions, have not had the desired impact as far as the latter is concerned.

    Growing Russia-China closeness and its implications for Indo-Pacific

    • The situation in Europe is still to be decided, but what is also becoming obvious is that outside Europe, the conflict is beginning to take on a different dimension, leading to the emergence of new patchworks of relationships.
    • China’s growing influence in the Pacific region, including in the Indo-Pacific, and further strengthened by the entente with Russia, may hardly be a by-product of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but it has induced fresh energy into a possible conflict between two rival power blocs.
    • Asia unwilling to take sides: Understanding the changing nature of relationships in Asia, and considering that most Asian nations appear unwilling to take sides in the event of a conflict, is important.
    • No unity of purpose: Unlike the unity and the strength displayed by European nations — there is no evidence of any such unity of purpose in the event that China was to launch a conflict with Taiwan.

    Challenges for India

    • India cannot ignore the situation created by the stronger bonds between Russia and China.
    • Uncertainty about Russia: India will need to determine whether Russia can be expected to play a role as a ‘trusted friend’ of India’s.
    • Again, it would be too much to hope that in dealing with China, India can expect the same kind of support it may need from the Quad.
    • China sidelining India: China, however, seems intent on establishing its dominance and also sidelining India in Asia, which New Delhi would have discerned in the course of the virtual BRICS Summit hosted by China in June.
    • Afghanistan challenge: Apart from China, India also urgently needs to come to terms with a Taliban Afghanistan.
    • Sri Lanka Challenge: At this time, the democratic upsurge in Sri Lanka presents India with a fresh set of problems.
    • In a situation where ‘rage’ and ‘anger’ are the dominant sentiments, there is every reason for concern that even governments that have maintained a ‘hands-off’ relationship could become targets of the new forces emerging in Sri Lanka.

    Major developments in West Asia

    • The Abraham Accords in 2020, which brought about the entente between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, has been the harbinger of certain new trends in the tangled web of relationships among countries of West Asia.
    • But even as the U.S.’s relations with Arab nations in West Asia appear to weaken, Russia and China are beginning to play key roles, with Iran as the fulcrum for establishing new relationships.
    • China continues to steadily build on its connections with the region, and with Iran in particular.
    • How India is dealing with the situation: India has been making steady progress in enlarging its contacts and influence in West Asia.
    •  While the India-Israel relationship dates back to the 1990s, the India-UAE relationship has blossomed in the past couple of years.
    • India-Iran relations, however, seem to have reached a stalemate of late.
    • Issues with I2U2: India has joined a U.S.-based group, the I2U2, comprising India, Israel the UAE and the U.S.
    • Details of the new arrangements are unclear, but it is evident that the target is Iran, as China is for the Quad, injecting yet another element of uncertainty into an already troubled region.

    Implications for nuclear deterrence

    • The argument being adduced is that a wide gap exists today in regard to China and India’s nuclear deterrent capabilities, and implicitly blames India for its voluntary ban on testing and its ‘no-first-use’ doctrine from making progress in this arena.
    • What is also implied is that India could overcome the lacuna by seeking the assistance of western nations which have such capabilities and knowledge.
    • Way forward for India: It is important for India to guard against such pernicious attempts at this time to undo its carefully negotiated and structured nuclear policy and doctrine, and be inveigled into any anti-China western move on this front.

    Conclusion

    Geopolitical experts in the West confine their findings at present solely to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, believing that this alone would determine not only war and peace but also other critical aspects as well. Significant developments are also taking place in many other regions of the globe, which will have equal if not more relevance to the future of the international governance system.

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  • With partners, India and Japan can form credible deterrence

    Context

    Last week’s report on Asian nuclear transitions by Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Japan’s debate on its atomic options underline the shared security challenges for Delhi and Tokyo.

    Common nuclear challenge for India and Japan and need for rethink

    • At the root of that common nuclear challenge is the continuing growth in Chinese military power and the rapid modernisation of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal.
    • 1] Modernising and expansion by China: China is modernising and expanding its nuclear arsenal as part of the general military transformation. Some estimates say China’s arsenal could grow to 1,000 warheads by 2030 from about 350 now.
    • 2] Muscular approach of China:  Xi Jinping’s China has taken a more muscular approach to its territorial disputes, including with India and Japan.
    • 3] Reluctance of the world to confront nuclear power: The Ukraine crisis has revealed that if a nuclear weapon power invades and seizes the territory of a neighbour, the rest of the world is reluctant to directly confront the aggression for fear of an escalation to the nuclear level.
    • Russia made this amply clear with its threat to use nuclear weapons if the US and NATO decide to join the war.

    Nuclear disarmament challenge

    • Indian and Japanese capacity to deter China is eroding steadily thanks to the problems with India’s minimum deterrence posture and the US nuclear umbrella over Japan.
    • India and Japan have long presented themselves as champions of nuclear disarmament.
    • Despite its call for total nuclear disarmament, India never agreed to give up its own nuclear weapons.
    •  Japan, as the world’s victim of nuclear bombing, had even a higher moral claim than India as the champion for the global abolition of nuclear weapons.
    • But Japan’s narrative is shaded by one reality—Tokyo’s reliance on the US nuclear umbrella.
    • Today neither Delhi nor Tokyo is ready to sign the 2017 Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons.
    • It is the problem presented by the expanding Chinese nuclear arsenal and its growing sophistication.
    • Locked in a confrontation with the US, China is determined to raise its nuclear profile.
    • As China closes the economic and military gap with the US, there is a darkening shadow over the credibility of the US-extended deterrence for Japan.
    • This uncertainty is transforming the Japanese security debate.
    • For India, the question is whether its nuclear restraint and policy of minimum deterrence are enough to prevent China’s bullying.

    How Japan is responding to the challenge?

    • In Japan, former prime minister Shinzo Abe had called for a fresh look at Japan’s nuclear policy.
    • He was suggesting that Tokyo must consider “nuclear weapon sharing” with the US.
    • The model is Europe, where several countries including Belgium, Italy, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have arrangements to participate in the US nuclear weapon deployment and use.
    • This proposal was rejected by the current prime minister.
    • While rejecting nuclear solutions to the problem of deterring China, Japan’s focus has been on raising the defence expenditure, developing sophisticated conventional weapons, beefing up the alliance with the US and widening the circle of Asian as well as European military partners,

    Suggestions in the report

    • Unlike Japan, India has no constraints on its nuclear weapons programme except the ones it has imposed on itself.
    • In the wake of the nuclear tests of 1998, India quickly announced a policy of minimum deterrence and a doctrine of no-first-use of nuclear weapons.
    • The big question is whether this conservatism in India’s nuclear posture can or should be sustained in the face of China’s military modernisation, nuclear expansion and strategic assertiveness.
    • Fresh debate on nuclear policies: The Tellis report, detailed and technical, should provide a basis for a fresh Indian debate about its nuclear weapons policies.
    • Revising US attitude to India’s nuclear weapons: Tellis also calls on the US to revise its attitudes to India’s nuclear weapons programme.
    • In the past, the US insisted on constraining India’s nuclear weapon programme.
    • Today a strong Indian nuclear deterrent against China is critical for the geopolitical stability of Asia and the Indo-Pacific and in the US interest.
    • Facilitating more sophisticated nuclear warheads: Tellis suggests that the US should be prepared to facilitate India’s development of more sophisticated nuclear warheads as well as improve the survivability of the Indian deterrent against the expanding Chinese nuclear arsenal.
    • The US should midwife an agreement under which France would help India accelerate the development of an Indian underwater deterrent based on ballistic missile carrying submarines (SSBN) as well as nuclear attack submarines (SSN),

    Conclusion

    Tellis is calling both Delhi and Washington to reconsider entrenched nuclear assumptions in the two capitals. While the resistance to his ideas will be strong, Delhi and Washington will have to respond, sooner than later, to the dramatic changes in the global environment triggered by the rise and assertion of China.

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    Back2Basics: Nuclear umbrella

    • At the dawn of the nuclear age, to encourage friendly countries to refrain from building nuclear weapons, the United States promised to protect them with U.S. nuclear weapons.
    • This arrangement came to be called the nuclear umbrella. The experts call it extended nuclear deterrence.
    • The umbrella covers the countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
    • It is not a binding legal arrangement included in their security treaties with the United States.
    • It is an informal assurance reinforced by dialogue and, in the case of NATO, cooperative arrangements to deliver U.S. nuclear weapons if authorized by a U.S. president.

  • Defence and technology cooperation is key to US-India partnership

    Context

    The possibility of India’s continuing rise over this century seems to be on a stronger wicket today than it did a decade ago, marred as the early 2010s were by political instability and economic turmoil.

    Historical background of dominance of world economy by the East

    • Prior to the era of colonial exploitation followed by self-inflicted stagnation due to communist economic policies adopted across the region, the ancient civilisations of India and China dominated the world economy
    • There existed a deep history of scientific innovation and technological prowess, which spread by osmosis and intercourse from the East to the West.
    • The West, led principally by Great Britain, then stole a march over Asia with the advent of the Industrial Revolution.
    • Emergence of the US: A pyrrhic victory for Britain in the Second World War marked the formal transfer of the Western bloc’s leadership to the US.

    Geopolitics in 2020s

    • Emergence of China: China is now home to a manufacturing-led and technology-driven economy, competing head-on with the US in areas like biotech, robotics, artificial intelligence, and advanced materials.
    • India, which faced an economic setback when the liberalisation process largely came to a halt between 2004-2014, is back on its feet, with consistent commitment and concerted policy action focused on building domestic capabilities in critical technologies as well as in key manufacturing industries and pursuing important structural economic reforms.
    • Common threat of China: From seeing non-democratic China as a benign partner, the US now sees it as a threat, the present preoccupations in Europe notwithstanding.
    • India, which for a time welcomed Chinese involvement in its economy, has also recalibrated after the 2020 Galwan face-off.
    • Unlike India and the US, which are both well-established republics with deep democratic cultures, China is “a party with a state attached to it”.
    • Concerns for India:  Being inextricably linked by geography, Beijing’s ambition to dominate its periphery and proximate region is of particular concern to India.

    What this mean for India-US relations?

    • Natural allies: Given this background, India and the US are natural allies to confront the challenges posed by an expansionist and aggressive China in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
    • New areas of cooperation: There are clear signals of unprecedented cooperation between the two countries in areas like national security, defence production and most prominently, new-age information technology and internet industries where American financial firms and blue-chip corporates are contributing growth capital as well as know-how.
    • Closer cooperation in scientific research and critical emerging technologies is imperative.
    • Reducing India’s dependence for defence equipment: In particular, as some American lawmakers highlighted when providing India with exemption under CAATSA that the American defence industry should contribute to reducing India’s dependence on Russian armaments and equipment.
    • Technology cooperation: Connected to the expansion of defence-industrial ties is the broadening of technology collaboration in areas like artificial intelligence, drones, advanced materials, space technology, semiconductors, and biotech in India, beyond the consumer tech and software sectors.

    Conclusion

    Demographic and economic trends firmly position India as a global force that will have the weight to stride alongside America and China, who would constitute the other two geopolitical — and ideological — poles over the 21st century.

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  • Monkeypox is ‘Public Health Emergency’

    The World Health Organization’s Director-General has declared monkeypox a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) July 23, 2022.

    What is PHEIC?

    Definition: Under the International Health Regulations (IHR), a public health emergency is defined as “an extraordinary event which is determined, as provided in these Regulations: to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease; and to potentially require a coordinated international response”.

    What criteria does the WHO follow to declare PHEIC?

    • PHEIC is declared in the event of some “serious public health events” that may endanger international public health.
    • The responsibility of declaring an event as an emergency lies with the Director-General of the WHO and requires the convening of a committee of members.

    Implications of a PHEIC being declared

    The PHEIC is the highest level of alert the global health body can issue.

    • There are some implications of declaring a PHEIC for the host country.
    • Only polio and SARS-CoV-2 were ongoing PHEIC prior to monkeypox.
    • Declaring a PHEIC may lead to restrictions on travel and trade.

    Back2Basics: Monkeypox

    • The monkeypox virus is an orthopoxvirus, which is a genus of viruses that also includes the variola virus, which causes smallpox, and vaccinia virus, which was used in the smallpox vaccine.
    • It causes symptoms similar to smallpox, although they are less severe.
    • While vaccination eradicated smallpox worldwide in 1980, monkeypox continues to occur in a swathe of countries in Central and West Africa, and has on occasion showed up elsewhere.
    • According to the WHO, two distinct clade are identified: the West African clade and the Congo Basin clade, also known as the Central African clade.

     

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  • Russia, Ukraine seal grain exports deal

    Kyiv and Moscow penned a landmark agreement with Turkey and the UN to unblock Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports after a Russian blockade raised fears of a global food crisis.

    What is the deal about?

    • The deal was agreed through UN and Turkish mediation.
    • It establishes safe corridors along which Ukrainian ships can come in and out of three designated Black Sea ports in and around Odessa.
    • Both sides also pledged not to attack ships on the way in or out.

    Why such move?

    • It will bring relief for developing countries on the edge of bankruptcy and the most vulnerable people on the edge of famine.
    • The five-month war has already displaced millions and left thousands dead.
    • It is being fought across one of Europe’s most fertile regions by two of the world’s biggest grain producers.
    • Up to 25 million tonnes of wheat and other grain have been blocked in Ukrainian ports by Russian warships and landmines Kyiv has laid to avert a feared amphibious assault.

    Why was the grain export deal signed?

    • Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, but Russia’s invasion of the country and naval blockade of its ports have halted shipments.
    • Some grain is being transported through Europe by rail, road and river, but the prices of vital commodities like wheat and barley have soared during the nearly five-month war.
    • Ukrainian and Russian military delegations reached a tentative agreement last week on a UN plan that would also allow Russia to export its grain and fertilizers.
    • Ukraine is expected to export 22 million tons of grain and other agricultural products that have been stuck in Black Sea ports due to the war.

    What is the grain export deal?

    • The deal makes provisions for the safe passage of ships.
    • It foresees the establishment of a control center in Istanbul, to be staffed by UN, Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian officials, to run and coordinate the process.
    • Ships would undergo inspections to ensure they are not carrying weapons.
    • Ukraine has insisted that no Russian ship would escort vessels and that there would be no Russian representative present at Ukrainian ports.
    • Ukraine also plans an immediate military response in case of provocations.

     

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  • ‘Advantage New Delhi’ in Sri Lanka’s India lifeline

    Context

    Ranil Wickremesinghe’s election as the President of Sri Lanka in a crucial Parliament vote on July 20, 2022, gives India an opportunity to take the lead in the foreign aid game in its neighbourhood.

    Background of the crisis in Sri Lanka

    • Sri Lanka has been facing economic turbulence since its pre-emptive default on its foreign debt obligations in mid-April this year.
    • Following the debt default and a shortage of dollars, the Sri Lankan economy is experiencing stagflation.
    •  Inflation has spiralled to over 50%, translating into higher food and fuel prices.
    •  Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis since its independence in 1948 is due to a tepid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict shock and economic mismanagement under the administration of the Rajapaksas.
    • Sri Lanka is also facing challenges in getting foreign aid, as 60% of the world’s poorest countries are also experiencing debt distress.

    Opportunities for India

    •  In the first six months of 2022, Indian aid worth $3.8 billion has flowed to Sri Lanka through loans, swaps and grants.
    • This is India’s largest bilateral aid programme in recent times.
    •  Stabilising Sri Lanka’s economy could prove to be a major win for Indian’s ‘neighbourhood-first’ policy.
    • Moreover, once the Sri Lankan economy stabilises, India can deepen its trade and investment linkages with Sri Lanka, transcending the current humanitarian aid relationship.
    • On the other hand, an unstable Sri Lankan economy could pose security risks to India and lead to a flood of refugees across the Palk Strait.
    • This is an opportunity for India to strengthen bilateral and regional partnerships.
    • Countering Chinese influence: In recent years, China has emerged as a major partner for Sri Lanka, especially for infrastructure projects, many of which are under scrutiny now.
    • This provides an opportunity for India to upscale its aid and cement its first mover advantage over China by leading an aid consortium for Sri Lanka, working closely with other friendly countries such as the United States, Japan and the European Union as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    Why China is reluctant to help?

    • China worries that unilaterally restructuring Sri Lanka’s debt or giving it moratoria would set a new precedent in its lending practices, leading to a queue of similarly distressed countries seeking debt relief from Beijing.
    • Furthermore, China, which is a G2 economy, and wanting to challenge the U.S., does not want its reputation to be tarnished by bailing out a floundering economy.

    Steps Sri Lanka needs to take

    • Concluding the talks with Sri Lanka: The government must show that it is serious about stabilising the economy by concluding talks on an IMF programme which will increase taxes and utility prices to raise revenue and increase interest rates to control inflation.
    • Economic reforms: It has to implement structural reforms to make the economy more open to trade and investment and allow market forces to determine resource allocation.
    • National consensus on IMF program: It has to build national consensus on implementing the IMF programme and reforms by explaining that this is the only solution to the crisis.
    • Anti-corruption policies: It has to restore the rule of law and enforce strong anti-corruption policies (including asset declarations for all parliamentarians and a strong anti-corruption office supported by the United Nations).
    • Reset foreign policy: It has to reset foreign policy towards a more neutral direction.

    Conclusion

    With political will and the right set of policies, Sri Lanka stands a sporting chance of achieving some economic normalcy within the next three years. India stands to gain by supporting Sri Lanka in its hour of need. A friend in need is a friend indeed.

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