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The Crisis In The Middle East

The future of the IMEC

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Introduction

In an era where connectivity defines power, the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) emerged as a visionary project connecting India’s western ports with Europe via the Arabian Peninsula. Envisaged as a multi-modal corridor encompassing maritime, rail, energy, and digital infrastructure, IMEC sought to integrate economies across continents while promoting peace and prosperity in a historically volatile region.

However, the optimism that surrounded IMEC’s launch quickly met the harsh reality of geopolitics. The October 7 Hamas attacks and subsequent Israel–Gaza war exposed the fragility of West Asian stability, placing IMEC’s implementation in question. Yet, beyond the uncertainty lies an opportunity for India to reshape its connectivity vision, adapting routes and partnerships to new global dynamics.

Why in the News

The IMEC has resurfaced in policy discussions as its viability faces uncertainty amid the deteriorating West Asian security environment. The October 7 Hamas–Israel conflict disrupted regional optimism nurtured by the Abraham Accords and slowed progress on IMEC’s proposed transnational links. At the same time, climate-driven Arctic trade routes and Red Sea disruptions by the Houthis are redrawing global shipping patterns, forcing India and its partners to reconsider IMEC’s configuration. The issue is critical as the corridor represents both an economic and strategic counterweight to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The Strategic Vision Behind IMEC:

Comprehensive Connectivity: IMEC aims to upgrade maritime routes between India and the Arabian Peninsula and establish high-speed rail links from UAE ports to Haifa, Israel, via Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Integration with Europe: From Haifa, goods would be shipped to Europe’s Mediterranean ports, ensuring faster, secure, and sustainable trade connectivity.
Beyond Transport: The corridor also includes plans for a clean hydrogen pipeline, electricity cable, and high-speed undersea digital cable, linking energy and digital ecosystems across three continents.
Strategic Objective: IMEC provides a non-Chinese, rules-based alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), enhancing India’s strategic outreach and economic influence.

The Geopolitical Context of 2023:

Favourable Climate: The Abraham Accords (2020) created optimism for regional peace, bringing Israel and several Arab states closer. This atmosphere facilitated multilateral cooperation frameworks such as I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, U.S.), paving the way for IMEC.
India’s Upward Trajectory: India’s improving ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, coupled with strong U.S. relations, allowed it to play a central role in IMEC’s conception.
Global Endorsement: The corridor was launched at the G-20 Summit in Delhi, with support from the EU, France, Germany, Italy, and Saudi Arabia, underscoring India’s emergence as a trusted global partner.

The Security Setback and Regional Volatility

Conflict Shock: Within weeks of IMEC’s announcement, the Hamas–Israel conflict erupted, reversing the post-Abraham optimism.
Regional Fallout: Israel’s military operations strained ties with Arab countries, undermining cross-border infrastructure cooperation.
Red Sea Disruptions: The Houthi attacks on cargo ships forced rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit time and cost.
Lesson: The events underscore that geopolitical stability remains the cornerstone of connectivity, and corridors like IMEC must remain adaptable to shifting realities.

Europe’s Changing Maritime Interests

Arctic Openings: Climate change has opened new northern sea routes, shortening Asia–Europe shipping times. Beneficiaries include Russia, the U.S., China, and northern European nations.
Mediterranean Anxiety: Countries like Italy, dependent solely on the Mediterranean, fear economic marginalisation if Arctic routes dominate trade.
Strategic Importance of IMEC: Hence, Mediterranean states see IMEC as a means to sustain their maritime relevance and diversify trade partnerships.
India’s Role: For India, the Mediterranean remains vital, as Arctic routes offer no immediate logistical advantage.

Why IMEC Still Matters for India

Economic Scale: With $136 billion in annual trade, the EU remains India’s largest trading partner, highlighting the need for resilient connectivity.
Supply Chain Resilience: IMEC offers a secure, shorter route connecting India to Europe while reducing dependence on the Red Sea–Suez chokepoint.
Strategic Leverage: Enhanced engagement with Arab economies can dilute Pakistan’s influence and integrate India deeper into West Asia’s economic architecture.
Innovation Space: As a multi-member initiative, IMEC allows India to propose new routes via Saudi Arabia and Egypt, adapting to political flux.

Challenges and the Way Forward

Security Dependencies: Ongoing instability in Gaza and Israel poses a persistent threat.
Financial and Political Coordination: Multi-country infrastructure projects face coordination delays, regulatory inconsistencies, and funding constraints.
Need for Parallel Efforts: India must also upgrade domestic ports and logistics infrastructure, including Sagarmala and Dedicated Freight Corridors, to complement IMEC.
Diplomatic Continuity: Sustaining dialogue through I2U2 and G-20 cooperation can help preserve IMEC’s spirit even if its routes evolve.

Conclusion

The IMEC’s future will depend not merely on the pacification of West Asia but on the political agility and diplomatic imagination of its members. While the corridor’s physical routes may shift, its strategic essence remains intact, to build resilient, diversified, and sustainable connectivity between India and Europe. For India, IMEC is more than an infrastructure project; it is a statement of intent, to be at the centre of global supply chains and a stabilising power in a fractured world.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2018] The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same.

Linkage: While China’s CPEC runs through disputed territory, making India wary, the IMEC shows how India is building its own clean, safe, and cooperative route to connect with Europe. It’s India’s way of staying in the global connectivity game—on its own terms.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Why Trump’s proposed stabilization force in Gaza will not find things easy

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Introduction

With the Gaza conflict entering its third year, US President Donald Trump’s “Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict” , a 20-point roadmap, has reignited global discussion on Palestine’s future. While both Israel and Hamas have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and prisoner exchange, the second, more ambitious part, a long-term peace framework and deployment of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF), faces deep geopolitical and operational challenges. The ISF, envisioned as a temporary yet long-term internal security mechanism under a “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump, is supposed to oversee “terror-free areas” handed over from Israel’s Defence Forces (IDF). But historical evidence from Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Iraq shows why such an effort may fail before it even begins.

What is the International Stabilisation Force (ISF)?

Temporary but long-term mechanism: The ISF is designed to act as a “temporary” yet enduring internal security arrangement, forming part of a larger apolitical Palestinian committee.
Trump’s oversight: It would be supervised by a “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump, tasked with ensuring security transition in Gaza.
Mandate confusion: The ISF’s deployment is proposed “immediately” after Israeli Defence Forces withdraw from designated “terror-free zones.”
Not UN-mandated: Unlike traditional UN peacekeeping forces, the ISF would lack international legitimacy and neutrality, as it is not under the UN Security Council’s (UNSC) authorisation.

Why is the ISF Not Comparable to UN Peacekeeping?

Absence of neutrality: International peacekeeping has always required UN-mandated neutrality; the ISF, dominated by US and allied interests, lacks this legitimacy.
Hostility in the region: Due to Arab hostility towards the US and Israel’s disregard for UN mandates, any non-UN force would face rejection from regional actors.
UN precedent: Since 2004, UNSC resolutions have repeatedly called for peacekeeping only under UN authority, especially within occupied Palestinian territories until a two-state solution is achieved.
Contradiction with global norms: Past experiences, from NATO’s ISAF in Afghanistan to multinational forces in Lebanon, show that non-UN interventions invite political opposition and legitimacy crises.

Why is Implementation Difficult in Palestine?

Israel’s selective compliance: Israel has historically undermined UN peacekeeping mandates (e.g., UNIFIL in Lebanon) and is unlikely to cooperate fully with an externally led force.
Hamas’ rejection of disarmament: Hamas has refused to disarm without Israel’s full withdrawal, a non-negotiable precondition.
Political vacuum: There are no strong Palestinian institutions capable of ensuring political control and governance in post-conflict Gaza.
UNSC resolutions ignored: While resolutions call for a two-state solution and prohibit occupation, Israel’s actions, including settlements and security zones, contravene these commitments.
Lack of Arab consensus: Arab states remain divided on participation in any force seen as legitimising Israeli occupation.

What Lessons Do Historical Precedents Offer?

Afghanistan (2001–2021): The NATO-led ISAF mission initially succeeded in stabilising Kabul but failed to create self-sustaining security institutions; the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
Lebanon (1982–2000): The Multinational Force (MNF), dominated by the US and UK, withdrew amid heavy local opposition and attacks, transferring responsibility to the UN’s UNIFIL.
Iraq (post-2003): The absence of a UN framework led to severe legitimacy deficits, insurgency, and long-term instability.
These precedents underscore that external interventions without inclusive local ownership often end in strategic failure.

What Are the Broader Challenges in Trump’s Plan?

Contradictory goals: Trump’s plan envisions Israel’s partial withdrawal but simultaneously retains security control, an inherent contradiction.
Palestinian exclusion: The proposal does not recognise any Palestinian political institutions or grant them meaningful authority.
Legal limitations: Without UNSC authorisation, the ISF would lack the legal basis to operate or enforce peace.
Regional optics: Arab and Islamic states would perceive this as another Western attempt to militarise peace under the guise of “stabilisation.”

Conclusion

Trump’s proposed International Stabilisation Force may appear bold on paper, but it suffers from a crisis of legitimacy, political trust, and historical amnesia. Without a UN mandate, regional consensus, or Palestinian participation, the plan risks deepening divisions rather than healing them. As history shows, no external force can impose peace where sovereignty and justice remain unresolved.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2024] ‘Terrorism has become a significant threat to global peace and security.’ Evaluate the effectiveness of the United Nations Security Council’s Counter Terrorism Committee (CTC) and its associated bodies in addressing and mitigating this threat at the international level.

Linkage: Trump’s proposed International Stabilisation Force (ISF), lacking a UN mandate, underscores the limits of ad-hoc coalitions in tackling terrorism, contrasting with the UNSC-CTC’s institutional approach to coordinated, legitimate counter-terrorism efforts. It highlights the need for UN-backed, multilateral mechanisms over unilateral interventions for sustainable global peace.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

What is Wassenaar Arrangement?

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Why in the News?

Protests erupted over Microsoft after allegations that its cloud services (Azure) are aiding Israeli military operations, harming Palestinian civilians, raising concerns under the Wassenaar Arrangement.

What is Wassenaar Arrangement?

Establishment: Created in 1996 as a successor to the Cold War-era COCOM (Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls).
Name Origin: Named after Wassenaar, a suburb of The Hague, where the agreement was reached in 1995.
Headquarters: Vienna, Austria.
Membership: 42 countries; India joined in 2017. Includes most NATO/EU states and all UNSC P5 except China.
Objective: Promote transparency, responsibility, and control in transfers of conventional arms and dual-use technologies.
Mechanism: Works through voluntary information-sharing, export license denials, and notifications on controlled transfers.
Control Lists:
- Munitions List: Covers conventional arms including tanks, combat aircraft, UAVs, helicopters, missiles, small arms.
- Dual-Use List: Covers sensitive technologies and equipment with both civilian and military applications.

Wassenaar Arrangement and Software:

Initial Scope: Designed for hardware exports (equipment, chips, devices).
2013 Expansion: Included “intrusion software” that can bypass or defeat cyber protections.
Challenges:
- Cloud/SaaS blurs what counts as an “export.”
- Inconsistent interpretations among members for software transfer and access.
- Grey areas: defensive research exemptions, cross-border data flows, and digital surveillance.
Gap: Rapid rise of AI, cloud computing, and biometrics has outpaced WA’s traditional framework.

Reform Needs:

- Broaden lists to explicitly cover cloud, AI, surveillance, and biometric systems.
- Recognize remote access as exports.
- Establish technical committees for frequent updates and agile controls.

Wassenaar Arrangement and India:

Membership (2017): Enhanced India’s profile in non-proliferation and arms control, bolstering its case for entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
Export Controls: Aligns India’s SCOMET list (Special Chemicals, Organisms, Materials, Equipment, and Technologies) with global norms.
Technology Access: Opens pathways to sensitive dual-use technologies vital for space, defence, and digital industries.
Diplomacy: Supports India’s counter-terrorism efforts, including the No Money for Terrorism (NMFT) initiative.

[UPSC 2011] Recently, the USA decided to support India’s membership in multilateral export control regimes called the “Australia Group” and the “Wassenaar Arrangement”. What is the difference between them?

1. The Australia Group is an informal arrangement which aims to allow exporting countries to minimize the risk of assisting chemical and biological weapons proliferation, whereas the Wassenaar- Arrangement is a formal group under the OECD holding identical objectives.

2. The Australia Group comprises predominantly of Asian, African, and North American countries, whereas the member countries of Wassenaar Arrangement are predominantly from the European Union and American continents.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

Options: (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2 *

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The Crisis In The Middle East

U.K, Australia and Canada recognise Palestine state in seismic shift

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Introduction

On September 22, 2025, Britain, Australia, and Canada formally recognised Palestine as a sovereign state, a step that Portugal and potentially France are expected to follow at the UN General Assembly. This unprecedented shift, especially by G-7 members like the U.K. and Canada, alters decades of Western foreign policy and signals mounting pressure on Israel after nearly two years of the Gaza war that began with Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack. While hailed as historic by Palestinians, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the move as an “absurd reward for terrorism.”

Why is this development historic?

First G-7 recognition: U.K. and Canada became the first G-7 nations to officially recognise Palestine, breaking with the long-standing Western alignment with Israel.
Sharp contrast with past policy: For decades, Western countries had deferred recognition pending a negotiated two-state solution; this marks a direct policy shift.
Conflict backdrop: The recognition comes amid international outrage over prolonged violence in Gaza since 2023, highlighting the urgency for peace.
Special burden: The U.K.’s Deputy PM admitted Britain carries a “special responsibility” due to the 1917 Balfour Declaration, which paved the way for Israel’s creation.

Why did the U.K., Australia, and Canada take this step?

Reviving peace hopes: Leaders like Keir Starmer emphasised the recognition as a way to keep the two-state solution alive.
International pressure: Growing calls for humanitarian accountability in Gaza pushed these governments to act.
Alignment with Europe: Portugal announced recognition the same day, and France is expected to follow, indicating a coordinated Western European push.

What has been Israel’s reaction?

Harsh opposition: PM Netanyahu warned that calls for Palestinian statehood “endanger Israel’s existence.”
Terrorism narrative: Israel frames recognition as a “reward for terrorism” in reference to Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack.
UN strategy: Netanyahu vowed to fight this recognition diplomatically at the ongoing UN General Assembly.

What role does history play in this debate?

Balfour Declaration, 1917: U.K.’s role in facilitating Israel’s creation still casts a shadow over West Asia’s conflict.
Decades of stalemate: Palestinian statehood has been promised but deferred since the Oslo Accords of the 1990s.
Burden of colonial legacy: Britain’s recognition is seen as part-redressal for its historical role.

How does this reshape global geopolitics?

U.S.–Western divide: Recognition creates divergence between U.S. policy (still opposed) and its closest allies like the U.K. and Canada, weakening the coherence of the Western bloc.
Global South solidarity: Developing nations, many of whom already recognise Palestine, view this as overdue Western alignment, strengthening South–North convergence on justice and decolonisation.
UN spotlight: With the General Assembly opening, Palestine’s legitimacy is expected to dominate the global agenda, elevating the conflict as a test case for multilateralism.
Regional fault lines: Arab states may gain renewed diplomatic leverage, while Israel risks isolation beyond its traditional U.S. support base, potentially altering Middle East power balances.
Strategic recalibration for India and Asia: Asian powers like India and China will have to navigate between historical solidarity with Palestine and strong bilateral partnerships with Israel, testing their strategic autonomy.
Narrative of international law and legitimacy: Recognition by major Western democracies strengthens the normative argument for Palestinian statehood, challenging Israel’s framing of the issue as a security-only concern.

Conclusion

The recognition of Palestine by the U.K., Australia, and Canada is more than symbolic; it could catalyse a chain reaction of Western nations acknowledging Palestinian sovereignty. While it reignites hope for a two-state solution, it also risks deepening fault lines with Israel and the U.S.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2018] India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss

Linkage: The recognition of Palestine by U.K., Australia, and Canada highlights how global powers are recalibrating their West Asia policies, creating new pressures on countries like India. While India recognised Palestine in 1988, it has simultaneously built deep and diverse ties with Israel in defence, agriculture, and technology. This mirrors the PYQ’s core theme—India’s Israel relationship is now structurally entrenched, even as balancing Palestine’s cause remains a diplomatic necessity.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and Famine Declaration

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Why in the News?

The United Nations has officially declared a famine in Gaza based on an Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) panel assessment.

About Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC):

What It Is: A global standard tool to assess and classify the severity of food insecurity.
Established: In 2004 during the Somalia food crisis by FEWS NET (Famine Early Warning Systems Network) and partners.
Coordination: Led by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Purpose: Supports early warning, evidence-based decision-making, and coordinated response by governments, UN agencies, NGOs, and donors.
Partnership Model: Combines efforts of UN bodies, NGOs, academic institutions, and national governments.

Key Features of the IPC:

Five-Phase Classification System:
- Phase 1: Minimal
- Phase 2: Stressed
- Phase 3: Crisis
- Phase 4: Emergency
- Phase 5: Catastrophe/Famine
Methodology:
- Uses convergence of evidence from food access, livelihoods, nutrition, and mortality.
- Requires technical consensus among analysts for transparency and accuracy.
- Allows real-time assessments and 6-month forecasts to support timely action.

What is Famine and How is it Declared?

Definition: IPC Phase 5 – the most extreme level of food insecurity.
Criteria (All Must Be Met):
- At least 20% of households face extreme food gaps.
- At least 30% of children under five suffer acute malnutrition (wasting).
- Death rate: 2 adults or 4 children per 10,000 people per day.
Declaration: Made by UN agencies, national governments, or authorized global bodies.
Purpose of Declaration:
- Mobilize international aid and emergency operations.
- Trigger food, health, and logistics support.
- Raise global awareness and funding for urgent interventions.
Past Declarations: Somalia (2011), South Sudan (2017, 2020), Darfur, Sudan (2024)

[UPSC 2023] Which of the following countries has been suffering from decades of civil strife and food shortages and was in news in the recent past for its very severe famine?

Options: (a) Angola (b) Costa Rica (c) Ecuador (d) Somalia*

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The Crisis In The Middle East

In news: International Criminal Court (ICC)

IOCR Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Why in the News?

The Trump administration sanctioned judges and prosecutors of the International Criminal Court (ICC) over arrest cases involving Israeli leaders and past probes into U.S. officials.

About the International Criminal Court (ICC):

Established: 2002 under the Rome Statute (1998); headquartered at The Hague, Netherlands.
Nature: First permanent international court to try individuals for grave crimes.
Jurisdiction over 4 core crimes:

1. Genocide
2. Crimes against humanity
3. War crimes
4. Crime of aggression

Members: 124 States Parties
- NON-members: India, China, USA, Russia, Israel, Ukraine
Structure:
- Office of the Prosecutor – investigates and prosecutes cases.
- 18 Judges – elected for 9 years.
- Assembly of States Parties – governs ICC administration.
- Trust Fund for Victims, Detention Centre
Languages: English, French, Arabic, Chinese, Russian, Spanish
Funding: Annual budget (2025) ~ €195 million (mostly from member states)

Jurisdiction and Reach of an ICC Warrant:

Applicability:
- Crimes by nationals of member states
- Crimes committed on member state territory
- UNSC referrals can extend jurisdiction to non-member states (e.g., Libya, Darfur)
Obligations on States:
- Member states must execute arrest warrants and cooperate fully.
- Non-compliance can be reported to Assembly of States Parties or UN Security Council (for UNSC referrals)
Challenges:
- ICC lacks an independent enforcement mechanism
- Non-members (e.g., US, Russia) are not bound to cooperate
- Political and diplomatic constraints hinder the execution of warrants
Special Mechanisms: ICC established an Arrest Working Group (2016) to enhance warrant enforcement through better intelligence-sharing.

[UPSC 2022] Which one of the following statements best reflects the issue with Senkaku Islands, sometimes mentioned in the news ?

Options:

(a) It is generally believed that they are artificial islands made by a country around South China Sea.

(b) China and Japan engage in maritime disputes over these islands in East China Sea. *

(d) Though International Court of Justice declared them as no man’s land, some South-East Asian countries claim them.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Gaza War Impact on IMEC

World Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Why in the News?

India’s National Security Council Secretariat recently hosted envoys from the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Italy, Germany, Israel, Jordan, and the EU to review progress on the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

Gaza War Impact on IMEC

About IMEC Project:

Part of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) for developing connectivity in emerging regions.
MoU signed on 10 September 2023 at the G20 New Delhi Summit.
Members: India, US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy, European Union.
Aim: Integrate Asia, Middle East, and Europe to boost transport efficiency, reduce costs, create jobs, cut greenhouse gas emissions, and strengthen economic unity.
Structure:
- East Corridor: India to Arabian Gulf.
- Northern Corridor: Gulf region to Europe.
Key Ports:
- India – Mundra, Kandla, Jawaharlal Nehru Port (Mumbai).
- Middle East – Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Abu Dhabi, Dammam, Ras Al Khair.
- Israel – Haifa.
- Europe – Piraeus, Messina, Marseille.
Infrastructure includes: Railway links, ship-to-rail hubs, roads, electricity cables, hydrogen pipelines, and high-speed data cables.

Impact of Gaza War:

Derailed work: Conflict from late 2023 halted stakeholder meetings and derailed western leg (Middle East–Europe) progress.
Jordan–Israel relations at historic low; Saudi–Israel normalisation stalled.
Regional rivalries (e.g., Saudi–UAE trade competition) hinder unified operational planning.

Significance:

Economic: EU is India’s largest trading partner; corridor promises faster, cheaper trade with reduced emissions.
Strategic: Strengthens India’s role in West Asia and positions it as a connector between Europe and the Middle East.
Energy & Technology: Potential for clean hydrogen pipelines, electricity and data cable links.
Resilience: Provides alternative to Red Sea shipping routes vulnerable to disruptions.

[UPSC 2025] India is one of the founding members of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multimodal transportation corridor, which will connect:

Options: (a) India to Central Asia to Europe via Iran* (b) India to Central Asia via China (c) India to South-East Asia through Bangladesh and Myanmar (d) India to Europe through Azerbaijan

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The Crisis In The Middle East

The threat to India’s ‘great power’ status

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Why in the News?

The ongoing tensions in West Asia, particularly between Iran, Israel, and the U.S., have reignited concerns about a potential U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, which could have serious geopolitical and economic consequences.

How could a U.S.-Israel-Iran war impact India?

Energy Security Risk: A war could disrupt oil exports from Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, through which 60% of India’s crude imports pass. Eg: During the 2019 U.S.-Iran tensions, India faced uncertainty in oil supply and had to cut Iranian imports.
Geopolitical Imbalance: Collapse of Iran may increase U.S. dominance in West Asia, weakening India’s strategic depth and bargaining power. Eg: India’s balancing diplomacy between Gulf countries, Israel, and Iran would face strain, as seen when Chabahar Port talks slowed under U.S. pressure.
Diaspora and Economic Fallout: War could threaten the safety of 8 million Indians in the Gulf and affect remittances and trade. Eg: During the 1990 Gulf War, India had to evacuate over 1.7 lakh citizens and faced economic shocks.

What is the difference between great power and super power?

The terms “great power” and “superpower” both refer to influential countries, but they differ in scale, reach, and dominance.

Great Power: A great power is a country with significant regional or global influence, strong economy, capable military, and active diplomacy. Eg: India, France, Germany
Superpower: A superpower is a country with unmatched global dominance across military, economic, political, and cultural spheres. Eg: United States (Cold War era: USA and USSR were two superpowers).

How does the Iran-Israel conflict impact India’s great power status?

Challenges to Strategic Autonomy: The conflict pressures India to balance relations with both Iran and Israel, testing its strategic autonomy — a key trait of great powers. India called for restraint without directly criticising either side.
Limited Global Influence in Conflict Resolution: India’s geopolitical clout is still evolving, and its absence in conflict mediation highlights the gap between global aspirations and actual influence. Eg: India was not part of backchannel diplomacy, unlike the U.S. or China.

How does multipolarity guide India’s foreign policy?

Strategic Autonomy: India avoids aligning permanently with any one power bloc, maintaining independent decision-making. Eg: India is a member of both the QUAD and BRICS, balancing ties with the U.S. and China.
Diversified Partnerships: Multipolarity enables India to build issue-based coalitions with different countries for mutual benefit. Eg: India partners with France on defence, Russia on energy, and U.S. on technology.
Global Rule-Shaping Role: India promotes a rules-based order and voices the concerns of the Global South in global forums. Eg: India’s presidency of the G20 in 2023 emphasized inclusive development and reform of global institutions.

Why is Iran vital to India’s energy and strategy?

Energy Security: Iran has vast reserves of crude oil and natural gas, essential for India’s growing energy needs. Eg: Before U.S. sanctions, Iran was among India’s top three crude oil suppliers.
Strategic Connectivity: Iran hosts the Chabahar Port, offering India access to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and bypassing Pakistan. Eg: The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) runs through Iran, linking India to Europe.
Regional Balance: Ties with Iran help India maintain a geopolitical balance in West Asia amid U.S., Israel, and Gulf influences. Eg: India engages Iran to counter China’s influence in the region, including at Gwadar Port in Pakistan.

How does India balance ties between major powers?

Strategic Autonomy: India maintains independent foreign policy decisions without aligning fully with any bloc, ensuring flexibility in global affairs.
Multi-alignment Approach: India engages simultaneously with the U.S., Russia, China, EU, and others, based on issue-specific interests.
Issue-based Partnerships: India chooses partners depending on the context — cooperating with the U.S. on defense, Russia on energy, and China on trade, while managing conflicts diplomatically.

How can India promote peace in West Asia? (Way forward)

Diplomatic Balancing: India can maintain neutral engagement with rival states like Iran, Israel, and the Gulf countries, promoting dialogue over conflict. Eg: India has strong ties with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, enabling it to act as a bridge-builder.
Economic Cooperation: Promoting trade, energy ties, and infrastructure projects can foster interdependence and reduce regional tensions. Eg: India’s investment in Chabahar Port connects the region economically and supports stability in Afghanistan.
Cultural and Diaspora Links: Leveraging its diaspora presence and civilizational ties, India can promote people-to-people engagement and soft power diplomacy. Eg: The 8-million-strong Indian diaspora in the Gulf enhances goodwill and mutual trust in the region.

Mains PYQ:

[UPSC 2014] Though 100 percent FDI is already allowed in non news media like a trade publication and general entertainment channel, the Government is mulling over the proposal for in creased FDI in news media for quite some time. What difference would an increase in FDI make? Critically evaluate the pros and cons.

Linkage: Evaluating the “pros and cons” necessitates an understanding of the challenges and opportunities associated with foreign investment inflows, reflecting a part of India’s FDI challenge in attracting and managing capital effectively. This question directly related to the implications of increasing FDI in a specific sector.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Conflict in Middle East: As world watches oil, why India must watch its fertiliser supply

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Why in the News?

The Iran-Israel conflict has drawn global attention for its impact on oil prices, but a less visible and equally serious issue is emerging in fertiliser supply, which poses a significant risk to farming and food security in India.

What are the fertiliser security risks for India amid geopolitical conflicts?

Disruption of Import Routes: India relies heavily on fertiliser imports from Gulf countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. These imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route vulnerable to blockades during conflicts like the Iran-Israel standoff. Eg: A naval blockade in the Strait could delay shipments of urea and DAP, affecting timely supply during sowing seasons.
Volatile Global Prices: Geopolitical tensions raise the prices of natural gas (used to produce urea) and finished fertilisers. Eg: A conflict-induced surge in natural gas prices increases the cost of domestic urea production, straining India’s fertiliser subsidy bill.
Dependence on Conflict Zones: India imports 100% of MOP (Muriate of Potash), including from Belarus and Israel, both affected by global instability. Eg: Escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict can disrupt MOP imports, impacting crops like sugarcane and cotton that need potash-based fertilisers.

What lessons from the Russia-Ukraine crisis remain unaddressed?

Lack of Strategic Buffer Stocks: Despite 2022 supply disruptions, India still lacks a fertiliser buffer stock policy or minimum stocking norms for critical imports like DAP and MOP. Eg: During peak sowing seasons (like Kharif), 30–45 days of operational stock is inadequate to absorb external shocks.

Failure to Diversify Import Sources Meaningfully: While India talks of diversification, it continues to rely heavily on Gulf countries and politically unstable regions. Eg: After disruptions in nitrogen and potash from Russia and Belarus, the current dependence on Israel and Jordan for DAP remains high, risking repetition.

Reactive Rather than Proactive Policymaking: The policy response has focused more on short-term procurement than long-term resilience building through joint ventures, domestic innovation, or alternative fertilisers. Eg: No significant scaling of nano, bio or organic fertilisers occurred post-2022, leaving India stuck with high subsidy bills for synthetic inputs.

Why should fertilisers be part of India’s national security planning?

Critical for Food Security: Fertilisers are essential for sustaining agricultural output in an input-intensive farming system. Eg: Disruptions in urea or DAP supply during sowing seasons can directly impact crop yields and food availability.
Vulnerability to Geopolitical Shocks: Heavy reliance on imports from unstable regions exposes India to external risks.
Impact on Economic and Rural Stability: Fertiliser shortages or price hikes raise subsidy burdens and can lead to rural distress.

What are the steps taken by the Indian government?

Boosting Domestic Production: Reviving closed urea plants (e.g., Gorakhpur, Sindri, Talcher) to achieve 90% urea self-sufficiency by 2025. Focus on reducing import dependency for nitrogen-based fertilisers.
Diversifying Import Sources: Forming long-term agreements and joint ventures with countries like Morocco (for phosphates) and Canada (for potash) to ensure a stable supply. Exploring partnerships beyond the Middle East to reduce geopolitical risk.
Subsidy and Distribution Reforms: Implementing the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) system for fertiliser subsidies to ensure transparency. Promoting alternative fertilisers like Nano Urea and encouraging balanced nutrient usage.

How can India build resilience in fertiliser supply chains? (Way forward)

Develop Strategic Fertiliser Reserves: Establish buffer stocks of key fertilisers like urea, DAP, and MOP, especially for critical sowing seasons (e.g., Kharif and Rabi) to cushion against global disruptions.
Expand and Diversify Import Partnerships: Forge long-term agreements and joint ventures with stable countries (e.g., Morocco, Canada, Jordan) and explore alternative shipping routes to reduce overdependence on the Middle East and de-risk supply chains.

Mains PYQ:

[UPSC 2017] The question of India’s Energy Security constitutes the most important part of India’s economic progress. Analyze India’s energy policy cooperation with West Asian Countries.

Linkage: The article explicitly states that India relies heavily on Gulf countries for “natural gas — the key raw material used to produce” urea, a vital fertilizer. The ongoing conflict threatens “ammonia, urea, DAP, and liquified natural gas (LNG) — all vital for agriculture”. This PYQ precisely captures the energy dimension of India’s dependency on the Middle East, which is a critical underlying factor contributing to the fertilizer crisis.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

In a perilous world, India must read the tea leaves well

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Why in the News?

Recently, the world’s growing preference for military force over peaceful talks have made India’s old policy of staying neutral and keeping strategic independence no longer enough.

Why is India’s neutrality no longer viable in the current global conflicts?

Erosion of Strategic Leverage in Multilateral Crises: Neutrality has diminished India’s influence during major global conflicts where clear moral or strategic stands are expected. Eg: During the Israel-Iran conflict, India’s equidistant stance failed to garner goodwill from Iran, while Israel saw no added strategic value either.
Increased Global Polarisation and Military Alignments: The world is now split into rival power groups, and staying neutral is often seen as being unsure or unwilling to take a stand. Eg: The U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites with bunker buster bombs, along with the growing China-Russia-Iran partnership, shows that being neutral in such a situation can actually be a liability and hurt a country’s interests.
Loss of Support from Traditional Partners: India’s neutral approach during its own security crises has failed to rally international support. Eg: During the recent India-Pakistan conflict, most West Asian countries and even the U.S. remained non-committal, despite India’s outreach in the Global South.
Reduced Credibility of Non-Alignment in a Hard Power World: Global forums are increasingly emphasising military strength over moral positioning. Neutrality is no longer seen as leadership. Eg: At the Shangri-La Dialogue, the U.S. stressed hard power and Indo-Pacific dominance, sidelining softer, non-aligned narratives like India’s.

What are the threats posed by the China-Pakistan military alliance?

Two-Front War Scenario: India faces the real risk of a coordinated military confrontation on both eastern and western borders. Eg: During the India-Pakistan conflict in May, intelligence revealed Pakistan’s preparedness using Chinese-supplied J-10C and JF-17 fighter jets, suggesting synchronised planning with China.
Enhanced Pakistani Military Capabilities: China’s transfer of advanced weaponry has significantly boosted Pakistan’s defence systems, improving its precision strike and surveillance capacity. Eg: Chinese radar, missile systems, and drone technology are now integrated into Pakistan’s command and control network, enhancing its offensive potential against India.
Asymmetric Nuclear Threat: The alliance magnifies the nuclear imbalance in the region, putting India at a strategic disadvantage. Eg: China and Pakistan together possess nearly a 5:1 advantage in nuclear warheads over India, escalating the deterrence challenge and increasing the risk of nuclear brinkmanship.

How has India’s Israel-Iran policy impacted its West Asia standing?

Loss of Credibility as a Neutral Mediator: India’s attempt to balance ties between Israel and Iran has diluted its influence in the region, as it failed to take a principled stand when it was needed most. Eg: During the Israel-Iran conflict, India’s mere call for “restraint on all sides” disappointed Iran, which expected vocal support against targeted attacks by Israel and the U.S.
Strained Relations with Key Regional Powers: India’s visible tilt towards Israel in recent years has alienated several West Asian countries, undermining its strategic and energy interests. Eg: India’s growing defence and technology cooperation with Israel has made its Iran policy less credible, especially after Iran was diplomatically isolated in the recent conflict.

What are the reforms needed to prepare India for a two-front war? (Way forward)

Strengthen Long-Duration War Capabilities: India must boost its ammunition reserves, logistics systems, and supply chain resilience to sustain prolonged conflicts on both fronts. Eg: The UK’s defence audit revealed critical gaps in its own war readiness—India too must conduct similar assessments to plug vulnerabilities.
Develop Advanced Technologies and AI Warfare: Investing in Artificial Intelligence (AI), drone warfare, loitering munitions, and electromagnetic systems is crucial to match modern battlefield requirements. Eg: Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war show the growing role of AI-guided drones and precision weapons in shaping war outcomes.

Mains PYQ:

[UPSC 2022] How will I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics?

Linkage: India’s role in emerging strategic alliances, emphasizing the need to understand how new groupings can re-shape India’s influence and standing in global politics. The article underscores that India’s foreign policy is currently facing an “existential crisis” due to events like the India-Pakistan conflict, the China-Pakistan nexus, and the Israel-Iran conflict, where “neutrality is no longer an option.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

[19th June 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Why are oil prices rising amid Iran-Israel war?

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

PYQ Relevance:

[UPSC 2018] In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation?

Linkage: This question explicitly links “escalating tensions between Iran and Israel” to oil prices “spiralling upwards” due to fears of “potential disruption in oil supplies globally”. The article talks about the Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz as the “primary reason” for rising prices, as this chokepoint is crucial for transporting a significant portion of global petroleum liquids and oil supply from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.

Mentor’s Comment: Oil prices have jumped sharply due to rising tensions between Iran and Israel, mainly because of fears that the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global oil supply — could be blocked. Brent crude prices rose by 9%, showing how sensitive global markets are to such conflicts. Although prices eased slightly after news of diplomatic talks through Gulf countries, the threat of disruption still remains. For India, which buys over 80% of its oil from abroad, this is a serious concern. It affects not just fuel availability, but also inflation, economic stability, and business investments, making it a major challenge for India’s economy.

Today’s editorial analyses the impact of tensions between Iran and Israel on crude oil prices. This content would help in GS Paper II (International Relations) and GS Paper III (Indian Economy) in the mains Paper.

Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

Recently, oil prices have risen a lot because of increasing tension between Iran and Israel, mainly due to worries that the Strait of Hormuz — a major route for global oil transport — might be closed.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz vital for global oil trade?

Major Oil Transit Chokepoint: The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, through which nearly 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil passed in 2024 — about one-fifth of global consumption. Eg: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the strait handled the world’s largest oil tankers transporting oil from Gulf nations.
Exports from Key Producers: It serves as the primary export route for major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar. Eg: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about one-fourth of the global oil supply exits the Gulf through this strait.
Dependency of Asian Markets: A significant portion of oil transiting the Strait goes to Asian economies, which are heavily dependent on West Asian oil. Eg: In 2024, 84% of crude oil and 83% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transported via the Strait was destined for countries like India, China, Japan, etc.

What are the economic implications of the Israel-Iran conflict on India’s growth and inflation?

Rising Crude Oil Prices Increases Import Costs: A spike in global oil prices due to the conflict raises India’s import bill, as the country imports over 80% of its crude oil needs. Eg: Brent crude surged to $78.50/barrel in June 2024 amid Israel-Iran tensions, directly increasing India’s energy costs and widening the current account deficit.
Pressure on Inflation and Input Costs: Higher oil prices translate into increased transportation and production costs, leading to inflationary pressure on goods and services. Eg: Experts like Amit Kumar of Grant Thornton noted that global price shocks could affect India Inc’s profitability and raise inflation even though India doesn’t import oil directly from Iran.
Threat to GDP Growth Projections: Prolonged geopolitical instability may lead to delayed private investments and lower industrial output, affecting economic growth. Eg: ICRA’s Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, warned that a sustained oil price rise could prompt a downward revision of India’s 6.2% GDP growth forecast for FY25.

How has India reduced its vulnerability to oil price shocks amid West Asian tensions?

Diversification of Crude Oil Import Sources: India has expanded its import basket beyond traditional Gulf suppliers to include countries like the U.S., Russia, and Latin American nations. Eg: Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India is “comfortably placed” due to diversified crude sourcing, reducing overdependence on West Asia.
Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR): India has built strategic oil reserves to buffer against short-term supply disruptions or price spikes. Eg: The Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL) manages reserves that can support 9–10 days of crude demand, offering resilience during crises.
Promoting Renewable Energy and Domestic Production: India is ramping up solar, wind, and ethanol-blended fuels to lower long-term reliance on imported oil. Eg: Initiatives like PM-KUSUM and National Bio-Energy Mission aim to reduce fossil fuel dependence and enhance energy security.

What are the key drivers of the recent oil price surge?

Geopolitical Tensions Between Iran and Israel: The escalation in Israel-Iran conflict, including threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, triggered fears of significant supply disruptions, sending oil prices sharply upward. Eg: Brent crude shot up nearly 9% on June 13, reaching $75.65 per barrel, after heightened tensions.
Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint Risk: As a critical maritime chokepoint, any threat to close the Strait could drastically affect global oil flow and increase shipping and insurance costs, contributing to higher prices. Eg: Iran’s repeated threats to disrupt transit through the Strait instilled market anxiety, pushing Brent to an intraday high of $78.50 per barrel.
Supply Constraints Due to Sanctions and Regional Export Bottlenecks: U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and potential disruptions to routes via the Suez Canal or Red Sea limit available global supply, exacerbating price volatility.

Who ensures safe oil transit through Hormuz?

United States Navy – Fifth Fleet: The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, regularly patrols the Strait to deter threats like piracy or military aggression, especially from Iran. Eg: In 2019, after Iranian threats, the U.S. deployed additional naval assets to escort commercial tankers through Hormuz.
International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC): A coalition of Western and Gulf nations, including the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, established the IMSC to protect freedom of navigation in the Gulf region. Eg: The UK Royal Navy has deployed warships like HMS Montrose to escort oil tankers through Hormuz during periods of heightened tension.

What global actions can reduce related risks? (Way forward)

Strengthening Multilateral Naval Patrols: Enhancing joint maritime security through coalitions like the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC) can deter potential blockades and ensure safe passage. Eg: The U.S. and UK-led naval missions in 2019 escorted oil tankers after Iran’s threats, maintaining uninterrupted oil flow.
Diversifying Global Oil Supply Routes: Investing in alternative pipelines and trade routes (e.g., via Red Sea or land-based pipelines) reduces overdependence on chokepoints like Hormuz. Eg: The UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline bypasses the Strait and delivers oil directly to the Arabian Sea, reducing exposure to disruption.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

[18th June 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: What is Netanyahu’s endgame in Iran?

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

PYQ Relevance:

[UPSC 2018] In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation?

Linkage: To answer this question effectively, one would need to understand the strategic objectives (Netanyahu’s “endgame”) of the key players involved, particularly Israel and the U.S., concerning Iran’s nuclear capabilities and regional influence because this question is highly relevant as it directly references the “US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy,” which is a central theme of article.

Mentor’s Comment: Israel’s massive air attack on Iran, launched on June 13, has become a major turning point in West Asia’s politics and nuclear tensions. Israel targeted important nuclear sites, military bases, and top Iranian leaders — including the head of Iran’s armed forces — in what is now the most serious direct clash between the two countries. Although Israel says it wants to stop Iran’s nuclear program, much of the damage is limited, and Iran has hit back by firing hundreds of missiles, showing that Israel’s air advantage has its limits. This rising conflict is pushing the region closer to a wider war, with uncertain choices ahead — whether through diplomacy, trying to remove Iran’s government, or involving the U.S. — all of which carry serious global risks.

Today’s editorial analyse the Israel’s massive air attack on Iran. This content would help in GS Paper II (International Relations) in the mains Paper.

Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

Israel controls the skies and keeps bombing Iran to stop its nuclear program. But without powerful bombers to destroy protected sites, the attacks are unlikely to end soon.

Why did Israel launch a pre-emptive air war against Iran?

To cripple Iran’s nuclear programme: Israel aimed to destroy key facilities involved in uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel processing. Eg: The air strikes on Natanz and Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre targeted centrifuge halls, uranium conversion labs, and fuel manufacturing plants.
To eliminate Iran’s military leadership and infrastructure: Israel sought to weaken Iran’s retaliatory capabilities by decapitating its chain of command and targeting missile sites. Eg: The first wave of attacks killed Iran’s top generals, including the chief of the armed forces, and destroyed ballistic missile sites.
To pre-empt diplomacy and assert regional dominance: The strike came just before scheduled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, indicating Israel’s intent to disrupt any deal that could legitimize Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Eg: The air war began three days before the sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, showing that diplomacy was not Israel’s immediate priority.

What impact has Israel’s offensive had on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and retaliatory capabilities?

Partial damage to nuclear infrastructure: Israel’s strikes caused significant but incomplete destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Eg: The Natanz facility’s above-ground buildings were “completely destroyed”, but the underground centrifuge hall remained mostly intact, as per the IAEA.
Severe but not total disruption of key nuclear functions: Several critical facilities were hit, reducing Iran’s short-term nuclear processing ability. Eg: At Isfahan, Israel destroyed a chemical lab, uranium conversion plant, fuel manufacturing plant, and a uranium metal conversion unit—all essential to nuclear development.
Limited impact on Iran’s missile retaliation capacity: Despite leadership losses and infrastructure damage, Iran responded with strong missile and drone attacks. Eg: Iran launched ~400 missiles, striking targets in Israel like the Haifa oil refinery and a research institute near Tel Aviv, showing its retaliatory capabilities remain intact.

How does the ongoing conflict affect regional security?

Risk of a full-scale regional war: The conflict may escalate beyond Israel and Iran, drawing in regional actors and proxy militias. Eg: Iran’s allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Iraq and Syria could retaliate, opening multiple war fronts across West Asia.
Destabilization of already fragile states: Ongoing hostilities may worsen instability in politically volatile countries. Eg: Countries like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, already dealing with internal conflicts, could become battlefields for Israeli-Iranian proxy warfare.
Undermining regional diplomacy and peace efforts: The conflict derails ongoing peace talks and normalisation efforts between Israel and Arab nations. Eg: Arab countries part of the Abraham Accords, like UAE and Bahrain, are now under pressure to respond, potentially freezing further diplomatic engagement with Israel.
Threat to global energy supplies: The war risks disrupting oil production and shipping through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Eg: Iran may target Gulf oil infrastructure or tankers, affecting exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE, leading to global oil price hikes.
Increased civilian casualties and humanitarian crises: Strikes on civilian infrastructure increase displacement and humanitarian distress. Eg: Bombing of civilian locations in Iran and missile hits on Israeli cities have killed dozens and forced airport shutdowns like at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv.

What is the role of global powers like the U.S.?

Indirect support and strategic green light to Israel: While officially denying involvement, the U.S. has tacitly approved Israel’s actions. Eg: President Donald Trump publicly claimed neutrality but reportedly gave a “clear green light” to Israel before the June 13 strikes, according to Israeli officials.
Using Israeli strikes as diplomatic leverage: The U.S. is leveraging the conflict to pressure Iran into nuclear negotiations on stricter terms. Eg: Trump indicated openness to a new nuclear deal with Iran, using Israeli aggression as a tool to push Iran back to talks.
Avoiding direct military involvement while containing escalation: The U.S. is trying to prevent the conflict from expanding to American assets or allies. Eg: Trump warned Iran not to target U.S. troops or bases, and Iran has been cautious to avoid direct conflict with U.S. forces despite intense fighting with Israel.

What are the diplomatic and military options available to Israel in its conflict with Iran?

Military escalation for regime change: Israel may continue bombing key infrastructure to weaken or collapse the Iranian regime. Eg: Prime Minister Netanyahu hinted at targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and stated that the offensive could lead to regime change in Tehran.
Pause strikes to enable diplomacy: Israel could halt its attacks temporarily to allow diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Eg: Iran reportedly sent feelers through Gulf countries expressing willingness to talk if Israel stops bombing, indicating an opening for peace talks.
Push for direct U.S. military involvement: Israel could seek to draw the U.S. into the conflict to achieve its strategic goals, especially the destruction of fortified nuclear sites. Eg: Israeli officials are pressing Washington to join the war, as U.S. bunker-buster bombs and bombers are necessary to destroy Iran’s Fordow facility.

Way forward:

Pursue an internationally mediated ceasefire and nuclear dialogue: Global powers, especially the U.S., EU, and UN, should mediate a ceasefire to de-escalate hostilities and revive nuclear diplomacy with robust verification mechanisms. Eg: Leveraging backchannel talks through Gulf countries and involving the IAEA can help restore trust and prevent further militarisation.
Prevent regional spillover through coordinated crisis management: Establish a joint crisis response framework involving regional actors (like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Turkey) to contain proxy escalations and protect civilian infrastructure. Eg: A regional security dialogue could be initiated under the UN or Arab League to address missile threats, avoid airspace violations, and prevent humanitarian crises.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

[14th June 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Endgame of a 2,611-year-old Jewish-Persian enmity

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

PYQ Relevance:

[UPSC 2019] What introduces friction into the ties between India and the United States is that Washington is still unable to find for India a position in its global strategy, which would satisfy India’s National self-esteem and ambitions” Explain with suitable examples.

Linkage: The article points out several trade and economic tensions between the U.S. and India. These include disagreements over the actual size of the U.S. trade deficit with India, the increase of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from 25% and 10% to 50%, which also affects India, and warnings of possible tariffs on Apple products if they are made in India.

Mentor’s Comment: Israel’s bold “Rising Lion” operation against Iran on June 13, 2025, is a major turning point in Middle East politics. By killing top Iranian military and nuclear officials and bombing over 100 key sites, Israel has taken one of the most serious actions in its long rivalry with Iran. Both countries have described it as a historic moment, showing how serious the situation is. This is more than just a military move — it could have huge effects on the region and the world, including risks to energy supplies, rising tensions, and economic problems. It raises important questions about whether such surprise attacks can really prevent conflict or if they make things worse in an already unstable region.

Today’s editorial focuses on the analysis of the Israeli attack on Iran and its impact. This content is very relevant to GS Paper II (International Relations) Mains.

Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

Recently, the Israeli military launched the “Rising Lion” operation against Iran, which is a very big step up in tensions in the Middle East.

What are the strategic objectives behind Israel’s “Rising Lion” operation against Iran?

Neutralizing Nuclear and Missile Capabilities: Israel seeks to dismantle Iran’s ability to develop or deploy nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. Eg: Over 200 Israeli Air Force jets attacked 100+ targets, including nuclear sites and missile installations.
Eliminating Key Military Leadership: The operation targets Iran’s military command to disrupt strategic coordination and weaken retaliation capabilities. Eg: High-ranking officials like the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces and Revolutionary Guard commanderswere assassinated.
Asserting Regional Military Superiority: By launching a preemptive, technology-driven blitzkrieg, Israel aims to reinforce its deterrence and reshape regional power dynamics. Eg: The campaign follows 21 months of pressure on Iran and its proxies, including provocative assassinationsand systematic airstrikes.

Why has the Israeli campaign raised concerns about regional and global stability?

Risk of Regional Escalation: The conflict could widen if Iran retaliates or drags its proxies into action, destabilizing the Middle East. Eg: The Sunni Arab world fears blowback through attacks on oil facilities, incitement of Shia minorities, or revival of terrorist networks like ISIS.
Threat to Global Oil Supply Chains: Hostilities near key maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz can disrupt global energy flows. Eg: About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait; any Iranian attempt to block it could trigger oil price surgesand inflation.
Economic Fallout and Global Instability: A prolonged or messy war could amplify existing economic challenges like inflation, supply chain shocks, and geopolitical tension. Eg: The conflict may cause stock market instability, worsen the impact of other regional conflicts, and reverse global growth momentum.

How has U.S. foreign policy influenced the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict?

Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal: The U.S. pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, dismantling diplomatic progress and increasing Iran’s nuclear activity. Eg: Under Trump 1.0, the U.S. exited the deal and applied “maximum pressure” sanctions, leading to heightened tensions and mistrust.
Economic Strangulation Strategy: U.S. actions aimed to weaken Iran economically and diplomatically, increasing regional hostility. Eg: The U.S. pressured Saudi Arabia to flood the oil market, reducing Iran’s oil revenues, and pushed the IAEAto condemn Iran before the Israeli attack.
Military and Diplomatic Alignments: The U.S. built strategic ties and military alignments with Israel and other regional players to isolate Iran. Eg: The June 12 IAEA resolution, U.S. airstrikes on al-Houthis, and renewed ties with Pakistan signal coordinated steps that emboldened Israeli action.

What are the implications of the conflict for the Sunni Arab world and global oil supply chains?

Strait of Hormuz Vulnerability: The conflict raises the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy chokepoint. Eg: Nearly 20% of global oil supply passes through this strait, and Iran may block or threaten its use in retaliation.
Shia-Sunni Sectarian Tensions: Iran could incite Shia minorities in Sunni-ruled countries, destabilizing domestic security. Eg: Countries like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain fear internal unrest or uprisings, particularly in Shia-dominated regions.
Proxy Warfare and Regional Blowback: Iran-backed militias or proxies may target Sunni governments or U.S. allies, increasing regional instability. Eg: Attacks by Hezbollah, Houthis, or Iraqi militias could threaten infrastructure in UAE or Saudi Arabia.
Oil Price Surge and Inflation: Threats to supply lines or actual conflict could lead to global oil price spikes, impacting inflation. Eg: Fear of escalation alone can push prices upward, hurting import-dependent economies like India, and driving global market volatility.
Policy Dilemma for Sunni Arab States: Sunni states face a strategic dilemma—balancing between opposing Iran and avoiding regional escalation. Eg: Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are wary of openly backing Israel, fearing retaliation and regional backlash.

What could be the impact on India?

Oil Price Volatility and Economic Stress: Rising tensions threaten energy security, as India imports over 85% of its crude oil. Eg: A spike in Brent crude prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would increase India’s current account deficit, raise fuel prices, and trigger inflation.
Geopolitical Balancing Challenge: India must maintain a delicate diplomatic balance between Israel, Iran, and the U.S. Eg: India has strong strategic ties with Israel (defence and tech) but also energy and connectivity interests with Iran (e.g., Chabahar Port), making neutrality harder to maintain.
Threat to Diaspora and Trade Routes: Escalation could impact the safety of the Indian diaspora in the Gulf and disrupt maritime trade routes. Eg: Over 8 million Indians live in West Asia. Any conflict-induced displacement or shipping disruptions through the Persian Gulf would hurt remittances and exports.

Way forward:

Strengthen Energy Diversification and Strategic Reserves: India should diversify oil import sources (e.g., from Latin America, Africa) and expand strategic petroleum reserves to cushion against supply shocks. Eg: Fast-track deals with Brazil, UAE, and the U.S., while increasing domestic oil storage capacity.
Pursue Proactive and Balanced Diplomacy: India must engage in quiet diplomacy with both Israel and Iran, reaffirming strategic ties without compromising neutrality. Eg: Leverage platforms like BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and G20 to promote regional de-escalation and safeguard Indian interests.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

[11th June 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman foreign policy

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

PYQ Relevance:

[UPSC 2019] The long-sustained image of India as a leader of the oppressed and marginalised Nations has disappeared on account of its new found role in the emerging global order”. Elaborate.

Linkage: Under President Erdogan, Türkiye has moved away from its earlier identity as a secular, peaceful Cold War ally. Instead, it is now trying to become a strong regional power by following a foreign policy influenced by Islamic values. This question looks at how a country’s image and role are changing in today’s world.

Mentor’s Comment: Türkiye’s bold and ideology-driven foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is changing the political balance in West Asia, North Africa, and the Caucasus. By mixing Islamic revival ideas with smart diplomacy, Türkiye has become a unique player — a NATO member that backs Islamic groups and also works closely with Russia and Iran. Its support for HTS in Syria, military presence in Qatar, and use of drones in Azerbaijan and Ukraine show a carefully planned but risky push to expand its regional influence.

Today’s editorial discusses Türkiye’s bold and belief-based foreign policy, which is an important topic for GS Paper II (International Relations).

Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

Recently, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Türkiye has followed a foreign policy that leans towards Islamic values and focuses on making closer friendships with Muslim countries. But knowing Türkiye’s limits, he has also used a practicaland flexible approach along with his Islamic ideas.

What are the key features of Türkiye’s foreign policy under President Erdogan?

Islamist-leaning tilt: Türkiye has shifted from secular foreign policy to an Islamist-oriented approach, drawing from Ottoman-era ideology like Ittihad-i Islam (Unity of Islam).
Strategic activism: Ankara has actively intervened in conflict zones (Syria, Libya, Caucasus) to expand influence and protect Islamist groups.
Balanced diplomacy: Despite its Islamist foreign policy, Türkiye continues to be a key NATO member and maintains military cooperation with the West.
Pragmatism with ideology: Erdogan blends ideological objectives with pragmatic diplomacy to gain leverage in regional and global affairs.

Why has Türkiye blended Islamist ideology with pro-Western alliances in recent years?

Strategic Leverage: Türkiye blends Islamist ideology with pro-Western alliances to expand its influence in the Muslim world while continuing to benefit from Western military and economic support. Eg: It supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt while remaining a NATO member and hosting U.S. nuclear weaponsat Incirlik Airbase.
Geopolitical Balancing: By engaging with both the West and rivals like Russia, Türkiye positions itself as a key regional power using diplomatic flexibility. Eg: It supplied drones to Ukraine but refused to impose sanctions on Russia, and also bought Russia’s S-400 missile defence system.
Domestic Political Gains: The blend allows Erdogan to satisfy his conservative and Islamist voter base while keeping ties with the West to boost Türkiye’s global standing. Eg: While supporting Islamist groups in Syria and Libya, he also pursued EU accession negotiations and maintained U.S. relations.
Reclaiming Regional Influence: Erdogan aims to revive Türkiye’s past Ottoman glory by asserting leadership in the Islamic world through both ideology and realpolitik. Eg: Türkiye supported HTS in Syria, deployed troops in Qatar, and backed Azerbaijan against Armenia—moves tied to its historical influence in those regions.

How has Türkiye’s involvement in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus expanded its regional influence?

Support for Islamist Groups in Syria: Türkiye backed anti-Assad factions, including the Free Syrian Army and later Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to expand its presence near the Israeli border and counter Kurdish militias. Eg: Türkiye created a buffer zone on the Turkish-Syrian border and opposed military operations against HTS, enhancing its influence in northern Syria.
Military Presence in Libya: Türkiye supported the Tripoli-based government, which was dominated by Islamist groups, against the eastern faction supported by Egypt and Russia. Eg: Its intervention shifted the power balance in Libya’s civil war, strengthening its role as a decisive actor in North Africa.
Backing Azerbaijan in the Caucasus: During the 2023 Armenia-Azerbaijan war, Türkiye supported Azerbaijanmilitarily and diplomatically against Russia-backed Armenia. Eg: Türkiye’s supply of drones and training helped Azerbaijan gain territory in Nagorno-Karabakh, solidifying Ankara’s role in Caucasian geopolitics.
Neo-Ottoman Strategic Depth: These interventions reflect Türkiye’s goal of restoring its Ottoman-era influence in regions it historically controlled. Eg: By actively engaging in conflicts across West Asia and the Caucasus, Türkiye revives its historical footprint under a neo-Ottoman vision.
Diplomatic Bargaining Power: Türkiye’s involvement in regional conflicts enhances its bargaining power with both the West and Russia, giving it room to extract concessions. Eg: Despite tensions over S-400, Türkiye supported Sweden and Finland’s NATO entry, using its strategic role to influence Western policy decisions.

What are the ethical issues?

Support for Militant Groups: Backing groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has links to terrorist networks, raises serious ethical concerns regarding state sponsorship of violence. Eg: Türkiye’s protection of HTS in Syria, despite its al-Qaeda roots, may undermine international counter-terrorism norms.
Civilian Impact and Regional Instability: Türkiye’s military involvement in conflict zones (Syria, Libya, Caucasus) can lead to civilian casualties and human rights violations, raising questions about just war ethics. Eg: Drone strikes in Libya and Azerbaijan, though tactically effective, risk collateral damage and contribute to prolonged violence.

What would be the impact on India?

Strengthened Türkiye-Pakistan Alliance: Türkiye’s open support for Pakistan in regional disputes, especially during India-Pakistan tensions, could undermine India’s diplomatic interests. Eg: During the India-Pakistan flare-up, Türkiye backed Islamabad, which may influence international forums like the UN or OIC against India.
Rival Narrative in the Muslim World: Türkiye’s Islamist foreign policy positions it as a champion of Muslim causes, potentially creating a counter-narrative to India’s efforts to engage Gulf and West Asian countries. Eg: Türkiye’s support for Kashmir-related discussions at the OIC can affect India’s relations with Muslim-majority countries.
Strategic Presence Near India’s Periphery: Türkiye’s increasing engagement in South Asia and Central Asia through military and diplomatic ties (e.g., with Azerbaijan and Pakistan) may reduce India’s strategic space in the extended neighbourhood. Eg: Türkiye’s participation in military drills with Pakistan and support for joint defence production could enhance Islamabad’s military capabilities.

Way forward:

Strengthen Strategic Partnerships in West Asia and Eurasia: India should deepen ties with countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, and Central Asian republics to counterbalance Türkiye’s growing regional influence. Eg: Expanding the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and increasing energy and security cooperation with Gulf nations can help secure India’s interests.
Enhance Global Diplomacy and Narrative Building: India must actively engage in multilateral platforms (like OIC, UN, SCO) to neutralize anti-India rhetoric and promote a moderate, inclusive image. Eg: Leveraging its civilizational diplomacy and diaspora to reinforce its role as a responsible power in the Islamic world.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Places in News: Zangezur Corridor

Prelims Only World Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Why in the News?

The aftermath of Operation Sindoor highlights India’s strategic concerns over the proposed Zangezur Corridor in Armenia backed by Azerbaijan and Turkiye.

Zangezur Corridor

About the Zangezur Corridor:

What it is: The Zangezur Corridor is a proposed land route through Armenia’s Syunik Province that would connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan region, cutting across Armenian land.
Who supports it: Azerbaijan and Turkiye back the project. They want a direct link without Armenian border checks or customs interference.
Route Details: The corridor would be about 43–44 km long and pass near the Iran-Armenia border, giving it high geopolitical value.
Why it’s controversial:
- Azerbaijan sees it as a post-war right after its win in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
- Armenia insists it must have full control and sovereignty over any transport through its territory.
Turkiye’s Interest: It wants to use this corridor as part of its Middle Corridor project to connect with Central Asia and Europe via land routes.
Opposition: Iran and Armenia oppose the corridor, fearing it could:
- Isolate Armenia,
- Weaken Iranian access, and
- Threaten Armenia’s territorial integrity.

How it concerns India?

Strategic Ties: India is a key defence partner for Armenia and supports regional stability in the South Caucasus.
Trade Ambitions: India is:
- Developing Chabahar Port in Iran,
- Working on a transport route via Iran–Armenia–Georgia to Europe, bypassing Pakistan and the Suez Canal.

Concerns: If the Zangezur Corridor bypasses Armenian control, it could:

- Disrupt India’s land trade route to Europe,
- Reduce Iran’s regional access,
- Weaken India’s strategic reach.
Larger Geo-Politics: Turkiye and Azerbaijan’s growing influence in the region is worrying for India, especially since Turkiye opposes India’s IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor).
India’s Stand: India supports Armenia’s sovereignty and opposes unilateral moves, aiming to:
- Protect its trade routes,
- Preserve strategic balance, and
- Counter regional encirclement.

[UPSC 2023] Consider the following pairs:

Regions often mentioned in news : Reason for being in news

1. North Kivu and Ituri : War between Armenia an Azerbaijan

2. Nagorno-Karabakh : Insurgency in Mozambique

3. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia : Dispute between Israel and Lebanon How many of the above pairs are correctly matched?

Options: (a) Only one (b) Only two (c) All three (d) None *

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Persian Gulf to be renamed as ‘Arabian Gulf’

World Mapping | Geography | Mains Paper 1: Geographical Features & Their Location

Why in the News?

Donald Trump plans to announce that the US will officially refer to the Persian Gulf as the “Arabian Gulf” or “Gulf of Arabia”, aligning with the preferences of Arab nations.

Persian Gulf to be renamed as 'Arabian Gulf'

About Persian Gulf

The Persian Gulf is a marginal sea of the Indian Ocean, located in Western Asia.
It is connected to the Arabian Sea through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil shipments.
The gulf spans an area of approximately 251,000 km².
Its average depth is around 50 meters, with a maximum depth of about 90 meters.
The total coastline is roughly 5,117 km, with Iran possessing the longest share (~1,536 km).
The gulf is bordered by:
- North: Iran
- Southwest: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE
- Northwest: Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain
Key islands:
- Qeshm Island (Iran) — the largest island in the Persian Gulf (~1,491 km²), nearly 2.5 times the size of Bahrain.
- Bahrain — a sovereign archipelago state with over 50 islands, and home to a major US naval base.
It is recognized officially by the International Hydrographic Organisation (IHO) as the “Persian Gulf”.

[UPSC 2024] Consider the following statements:

Statement-I: Sumed pipeline is a strategic route for Persian Gulf oil and natural gas shipments to Europe.

Statement-II: Sumed pipeline connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean Sea.

Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

Options: (a) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II explains Statement-I* (b) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct, but Statement-II does not explain Statement-I (c) Statement-I is correct, but Statement-II is incorrect (d) Statement-I is incorrect, but Statement-II is correct

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Amidst regional ferment, Kurds’ quest for statehood

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Why in the News?

The chances of Kurds achieving statehood have improved, but they are still divided by national, tribal, and internal ethnic differences.

What is the current geopolitical situation in West Asia?

Rising Tensions Between Israel and Arab States: The Israeli government’s hardline stance on the Palestinian issue is at odds with Arab nations’ insistence on a two-state solution. The expansion of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and certain Arab countries, is now being challenged by this conflict. Eg, the Israeli government’s policies have led to a strained relationship with countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who continue to push for Palestinian statehood.
Weakened Iran and Resumption of U.S. Pressure: Iran’s geopolitical influence is diminishing due to both internal instability and external pressure from the U.S., including sanctions and military threats. Iran has agreed to negotiate its nuclear program as part of this dynamic. Eg, the U.S. has imposed “maximum pressure” tactics, leading to renewed discussions on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, showing a shift in regional power balances.
Economic Instability Due to Declining Oil Prices: The decline in oil prices by 20% in 2025 has raised concerns about the economic stability of the region, which heavily depends on oil exports. This has already caused volatility in the economies of Gulf countries, impacting countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where the oil sector is a significant source of revenue.

How is it impacting the Kurdish quest for statehood?

Weakened Regional Powers Create Opportunities for Kurdish Autonomy: The instability and weakening of central authorities in Iraq, Syria, and Iran have created opportunities for Kurdish groups to assert autonomy and establish a foothold in the region. Eg, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq has gained considerable autonomy since the 1990s, and the Kurdish Self Defense Forces (SDF) control significant portions of northern Syria, both reflecting a push for Kurdish statehood amidst regional chaos.
Absence of a Unifying Kurdish National Movement: Despite these opportunities, the Kurds lack a unifying ideology or transnational political entity to consolidate their ambitions for statehood. Eg, while some Kurdish factions in Iraq and Syria have made strides towards self-governance, the absence of a coordinated regional Kurdish political structure has hindered their ability to form a fully recognized Kurdish state.

Why did the Kurds fail to achieve statehood after the 1920 Treaty of Sevres?

Opposition from the Turkish Nationalists: The Treaty of Sevres in 1920 promised the Kurds an autonomous state in eastern Turkey, but it was thwarted by the rise of Turkish nationalism under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Eg, the Turkish nationalist movement rejected the idea of a Kurdish state, and Atatürk’s forces succeeded in establishing the Republic of Turkey, which vehemently opposed Kurdish autonomy.
Geopolitical Interests of Western Powers: The Western powers, who supported the Treaty of Sevres, were more focused on dismantling the Ottoman Empire and securing their own geopolitical interests in the region, rather than prioritizing Kurdish self-determination. Eg, the Treaty was eventually replaced by the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923, which ignored Kurdish aspirations and reinforced the territorial integrity of Turkey, sidelining the Kurds.

How has Turkish repression of Kurds led to the formation of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party)?

Suppression of Kurdish Identity: Turkish repression of Kurdish culture, language, and political rights led to widespread resentment among the Kurdish population. Eg, in the 1980s, the Turkish government officially classified Kurds as “mountain Turks” and banned the use of the Kurdish language, which prompted a reaction from Kurdish activists.
Formation of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party): In 1978, Abdullah Öcalan founded the PKK to demand Kurdish independence through armed struggle, responding to decades of discrimination and oppression. Eg, the PKK launched an insurgency in 1984, which led to a prolonged conflict with the Turkish state, causing tens of thousands of deaths.

What role has the Kurdish Self-Defence Force (SDF) played in Syria?

Fighting Against Terrorist Groups: The Kurdish Self Defence Force (SDF) played a crucial role in fighting against ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria, particularly in the northern regions. Eg, the SDF, with support from the U.S., was instrumental in the liberation of Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS, in 2017.
Control Over Syrian Territories: The SDF currently controls nearly 40% of Syria, establishing significant political and military influence. Eg, the SDF’s control over areas like Kobani and Manbij has been a source of tension with Turkey, which accuses the SDF of having links to the PKK.

How is the potential reduction of American military presence affecting their future?

Loss of Strategic Support for Kurdish Forces: The reduction of American military presence in Syria could undermine the Kurdish Self-Defense Forces (SDF), who have heavily relied on U.S. military support in their fight against groups like ISIS. Without this backing, the SDF may face greater vulnerability to Turkish military operations, which view the Kurdish forces as aligned with the PKK. Eg: The SDF’s influence in Syria could diminish, particularly in regions where they have fought hard to establish autonomy, such as in the northeast of the country.
Increased Regional Instability: The pullback of U.S. forces could embolden regional powers like Turkey, Iran, and Syria to exert more control over Kurdish regions, weakening their position in any future negotiations for statehood or autonomy. It could lead to more internal conflict and repression within Kurdish-majority areas. Eg: Turkey, already critical of the SDF’s alignment with PKK, could launch more aggressive military operations, further displacing Kurdish communities in Syria.

How can India take advantage of it? (Way Forward)

Strategic Partnerships and Influence in West Asia: India can leverage the evolving geopolitical dynamics in West Asia to strengthen its strategic ties with Kurdish regions, particularly in Iraq and Syria. India can increase its diplomatic and economic engagement with Kurdish political entities to gain influence in the region. Eg: India can build stronger relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq, offering support in areas like education, healthcare, and infrastructure, which may enhance India’s influence in the region.
Energy and Trade Opportunities: As Kurdish regions, especially in Iraq, are rich in oil resources, India can increase its energy imports from Kurdish-controlled areas. Securing energy deals with the KRG could help India diversify its energy supply sources and reduce reliance on traditional suppliers. Eg: India could expand its participation in oil exploration and infrastructure projects in the Kurdish region, similar to its involvement in the development of oil fields in Iraq.

Mains PYQ:

[UPSC 2019] Explain how the foundations of the modern world were laid by the American and French revolution.

Linkage: Both the American and French Revolutions championed the ideals of self-determination and nationalism, which have been significant drivers for various ethnic groups, including the Kurds, seeking statehood. Understanding the impact of these revolutions on the formation of the modern nation-state system provides a broader context for the Kurdish quest.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

In news: Arab League

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Arab League

Why in the News?

The Arab League has strongly rejected US President Donald Trump’s proposal for Gaza relocation, calling it unacceptable.

arab league

About the Arab League

The Arab League was founded on March 22, 1945, in Cairo, Egypt.
Its founding members included Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Syria.
The primary goals of the Arab League include:
- Promoting economic, cultural, political, and military cooperation among Arab states.
- Safeguarding the independence and sovereignty of its members.
- Addressing regional conflicts through diplomatic engagement and coordination.
The League operates on consensus-based decision-making, meaning all member states must agree on major resolutions.
It holds regular summits and meetings where Arab leaders discuss and formulate policies.
Specialized councils and committees focus on key areas like economic affairs, defense, social welfare, and education.

Organisation Structure:

- Today, it has 22 member states and several observer nations.
- Members: Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Kuwait, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Somalia, Sudan, UAE, and Yemen.
- Observer Nations: Several non-Arab nations, including Brazil, Eritrea, India, and Venezuela, hold observer status but do not have voting rights.

Key Achievements of the Arab League:

Arab Peace Initiative (2002): Proposed a two-state solution to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Military Coordination: Facilitated joint military efforts in various regional conflicts.
Economic Integration: Established the Arab Free Trade Area to promote intra-regional trade.
Cultural and Educational Exchange Programs: Strengthened cooperation in education, research, and cultural preservation.

PYQ:

[2023] Consider the following statements :

Statement-I: Israel has established diplomatic relations with some Arab States.
Statement-II: The ‘Arab Peace Initiative’ mediated by Saudi Arabia was signed by Israel and Arab League.

Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

(a) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II is the correct explanation for Statement-I

(b) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II is not the correct explanation for Statement-I

(d) Statement-I is incorrect but Statement-II is correct

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The Crisis In The Middle East

[11th February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Gaza and Trump’s ‘expanding the canvas’ strategy

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

PYQ Relevance:

Q) “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (UPSC CSE 2018)

Q) Consider the following statements: (2023)

Statement I: Israel has established diplomatic relations with some Arab States.

Statement-II: The ‘Arab Peace Initiative’ mediated by Saudi Arabia was signed by Israel and Arab League.

Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

(a) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement II is the correct explanation for Statement I

(b) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II is not the correct explanation for Statement-I

(d) Statement I is incorrect but Statement II is correct

Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on India’s relations with Israel (2018), and the Arab Peace Initiative for Israel and Palestine ( 2023).

On February 4, 2025, Donald Trump proposed relocating Gaza’s 2.3 million residents to Egypt and Jordan, turning the area into a global resort under U.S. control. He hinted at a West Bank plan soon. Alongside Netanyahu, he praised Saudi Crown Prince Mb Salman, who reaffirmed that Saudi-Israel ties depend on a Palestinian state’s creation.

Today’s editorial talks about issues in the Middle East which is always in the news because of the Israel and Palestine conflict. This topic is also the favourite of UPSC in GS Paper2 mains and prelims related to International relations above mentioned in the box (PYQ Relevance). This content would help in substantiation of answers in Mains GS Paper 2.

Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

Donald Trump recently proposed an audacious plan to relocate 2.3 million residents of the Gaza Strip to Egypt and Jordan, turning Gaza into a global resort, which has stirred geopolitical tension.

This suggestion, along with his praise for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), hints at possible changes in the West Asia region, especially concerning the Israel-Palestine issue and Saudi Arabia’s potential involvement in the Abraham Accords.

What is meant by Trump’s ‘expanding the canvas’ strategy?

Trump’s “expanding the canvas” strategy refers to his approach of broadening the scope of a negotiation or conflict resolution by introducing bold, often extreme proposals to provoke reaction and stimulate further discussions.
By presenting an audacious or exaggerated idea, he aims to shift the focus and push opposing parties to consider more realistic and agreeable counter-offers. The idea is that this “shock tactic” can help break a stalemate and create space for new solutions.
In the context of the Gaza proposal, Trump’s suggestion to depopulate Gaza and turn it into a global resort serves as an example of this strategy—pushing the boundaries of negotiation to force other stakeholders to come up with a more balanced, practical solution.

What are the implications of the proposed strategy for the Gaza conflict, and how might it reshape the geopolitical landscape in West Asia?

Geopolitical Tensions and Pushback: This proposal would likely anger Palestinians and Arab nations, as it bypasses the core issue of Palestinian statehood and self-determination. It could worsen tensions between Israel, Palestinians, and neighboring Arab countries.
- The suggestion might also be viewed as a land grab or colonial move, particularly because it disregards the established claim of Palestinians to their land, creating significant backlash in the region and beyond.
Impact on Palestinian Statehood: Trump’s plan shifts focus away from the two-state solution (Israel and Palestine coexisting as separate states), which many international actors, including the U.S. and the UN, support.
- The proposal undermines the push for Palestinian independence and could derail efforts to achieve a lasting peace settlement.
Saudi Arabia and Other Arab Nations’ Involvement: Trump’s proposal could alter the balance in Arab-Israeli relations. Saudi Arabia, which is being courted for inclusion in the Abraham Accords, might find it difficult to reconcile such a plan with its own stance on Palestinian rights, especially since Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has linked normalization with Israel to the creation of a Palestinian state.
- It could either push Saudi Arabia and other Arab states further toward Israel or create more division, depending on how the proposal is received by the region’s leaders.
Shifting Regional Alliances: If Saudi Arabia were to move toward accepting the proposal, it could signal a significant shift in Middle Eastern alliances, possibly leading to greater cooperation between Arab states and Israel, while sidelining Palestinian aspirations for statehood.
- On the other hand, if the plan fails, it could deepen regional divisions, particularly between Israel and the Arab world, and intensify the existing geopolitical instability in the region.

How are the ongoing conflicts and economic challenges in West Asia affecting the region’s future?

Political Impact of Conflicts: The wars and conflicts in places like Gaza, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon have created deep divisions and instability. The region has been repolarized, leading to less cooperation and more distrust between nations.

Issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and Kurdish national aspirations remain unresolved, keeping tensions high and preventing lasting peace.

Economic Challenges: The conflicts have caused massive destruction, with the rebuilding costs in places like Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. However, economic recovery is impossible without resolving the political issues first.

The region’s economy is also heavily dependent on oil, which is a vulnerable resource. The global push to move away from fossil fuels and the volatility of oil prices make the region’s future uncertain.
Countries like Saudi Arabia are aware of this and are trying to diversify their economies, but this process is slow.

What are the Abraham Accords?

The Abraham Accords refer to a series of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab countries, aimed at establishing diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations. These agreements were brokered by the USA, and they marked a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Here are the four major features of the Abraham Accords:

Normalization of Relations: Israel established diplomatic ties with Arab countries like UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.
Economic Collaboration: The signatories are working together to enhance trade relations, investment opportunities, and economic partnerships. Israel’s advanced technology sector, including cybersecurity and innovation, is seen as a valuable area for collaboration with the Arab countries.
Security Cooperation: Enhances defense and intelligence sharing, especially to address regional threats like Iran. As part of the normalization, the Accords encourage cultural exchange programs, tourism, and people-to-people connections.
Exclusion of the Palestinian Issue: One of the most notable features—and points of controversy—of the Abraham Accords is that the agreements were made without resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
- While Palestinian leaders and many in the Arab world have opposed the Accords, claiming they betray the Palestinian cause, the agreements were framed as separate tracks that do not require the resolution of Palestinian statehood for Arab-Israeli relations to normalize.

Saudi Arabia’s Role in Shaping Stability:

Economic Influence: Saudi Arabia, as the largest economy in the region, plays a major role in the economic stability of West Asia. It has massive reserves of wealth, particularly from its oil exports, and is using this to invest in rebuilding and diversifying the region’s economy. The Saudi Public Investment Fund, for example, is helping to fuel new development projects.
Diplomatic Influence: Saudi Arabia’s political influence is also crucial. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), the country has made efforts to mediate regional conflicts, like the war in Yemen and tensions with Iran. It has also sought to balance relationships with global powers, including the U.S., China, and Russia, while maintaining its leadership role in the Arab and Islamic world.
Potential to Guide Regional Stability: Despite the conflicts around it, Saudi Arabia has largely avoided direct involvement in the region’s major wars. It can use its wealth and diplomatic leverage to fund reconstruction efforts and push for more peaceful, negotiated solutions to ongoing conflicts. It also holds significant sway over organizations like OPEC, which can affect the global oil market and, by extension, the region’s economy.

What are the challenges the US faces in advancing the Abraham Accords, and how does it complicate vision for broader Arab-Israeli normalization?

Palestinian Statehood and the Core Issue of the Conflict: The Palestinian issue is a major barrier to Arab-Israeli normalization, with many Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, insisting on a Palestinian state as a prerequisite.
- Trump’s focus on individual peace deals with Arab states bypasses this issue, making it difficult for countries like Saudi Arabia to fully normalize relations with Israel.
Opposition from Palestinian Leaders and Supporters: The Palestinian leadership has consistently rejected the Abraham Accords, seeing them as a betrayal of their cause. They argue that normalizing relations with Israel without addressing Palestinian rights and the establishment of a Palestinian state undermines their struggle for sovereignty and independence.
- This complicates the situation. As long as Palestinians feel excluded from peace processes or see no meaningful progress toward a state of their own, it will be difficult to secure broad Arab-Israeli normalization.
Resistance from Ultra-Religious Israeli Groups: Within Israel, the growing influence of ultra-religious Jewish groups also complicates Trump’s plans. These groups often oppose any peace deal and their influence makes it harder for the Israeli government to adopt policies that could lead to broader peace agreements, even with Arab states.
Competing Interests Among Arab States: While some Arab states like the UAE and Bahrain have embraced the Abraham Accords, others, particularly in the Gulf, have been more cautious.
- Saudi Arabia, for example, has signaled interest in normalizing relations with Israel, but only on the condition that Palestinian statehood is part of the deal.
- This puts Trump in a difficult position, as he must balance the desire to expand the Accords with the realities of Arab and Palestinian demands.

Way Forward:

Need for Revised Diplomacy: A lasting solution must address Palestinian statehood, with a two-state solution being central to gaining support from Arab nations and Palestinian leaders. Direct negotiations, backed by international mediators, are crucial.
- Arab states, Israel, and global powers must work together through multilateral platforms, with Saudi Arabia playing a key role in fostering peace and stability in the region.
Humanitarian Focus: Immediate efforts are needed to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and surrounding areas, with international aid supporting reconstruction and stability.
Economic Diversification: The region must move beyond oil dependency by investing in other industries, with collaboration between the U.S. and Gulf states to promote long-term economic stability.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Places in news: Kurdistan Region

World Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Kurdistan Region

Why in the News?

India has dispatched a humanitarian aid consignment to the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

Kurdistan Region

What is the Kurdistan Region?

The Kurdistan Region refers to areas inhabited by ethnic Kurds, primarily in Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) administers Iraqi Kurdistan, an autonomous region in northern Iraq.
The Kurds, a distinct ethnic and linguistic group, have long sought independence and greater autonomy.
Geographical Significance:
- Spans across Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria, covering the Zagros Mountains and fertile plains.
- Rich in oil and natural gas, particularly in Iraqi Kurdistan, making it geopolitically significant.
- Controls key border regions and trade routes, influencing regional stability.
Political Implications:
- The Kurdish struggle for autonomy has led to tensions with central governments, particularly in Iraq and Turkey.
- Kurdish forces (Peshmerga) have played a key role in fighting ISIS and maintaining security in northern Iraq.
- The KRG has diplomatic ties with Western countries but lacks full sovereignty.

Ongoing Dispute:

The Kurdish independence movement faces opposition from Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria, fearing territorial fragmentation.
Iraq rejected the 2017 Kurdistan independence referendum, leading to military and economic retaliation.
Turkey continues military operations against Kurdish groups, considering them a security threat.
The Turkey-ISIS-Kurd relationship remains controversial, with allegations that Turkey indirectly enabled ISIS against the Kurds.

PYQ:

[2018] The term “two-state solution” is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of:

(a) China

(b) Israel

(d) Yemen

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The Crisis In The Middle East

[21st January 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Prioritising IMEC is in America’s best interest

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

PYQ Relevance:

Q) The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same. (UPSC CSE 2018)

Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (2018), and Central Asia, European Region – as a zone of interest for India (2018 & 2022).

Did you know that a 5% improvement in multimodal transport performance can lead to an increase in exports by nearly $500 billion annually across participating economies. India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a multi-modal trade network focuses on not only physical infrastructure but also digital connectivity and energy security.

Today’s editorial emphasizes the strategic importance of the IMEC for the United States. This content can be used to address multifaceted approaches to enhance economic growth in Asian and European regions while promoting democratic values.

Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

The recent signing of a MoU on cybercrime investigations underscores this commitment, as both India and USA aim to bolster their security cooperation in response to common threats like terrorism and organized crime.

The IMEC agreement is viewed as a strategic opportunity for Prez. Donald Trump to deepen U.S.-India ties while also promoting multilateral collaboration among participating countries.
As Trump 2.0 begins, the present administration is anticipated to continue building on the defense and economic frameworks established during his first term.

imec

Key highlights of the Recent MoU:

Cyber Threat Intelligence Sharing: The agreement facilitates enhanced exchange of information regarding emerging cyber threats, allowing both nations to stay ahead of potential cybercriminal activities.
- It focuses on improving tools and processes for investigating cybercrimes, thereby strengthening the capabilities of law enforcement agencies in both countries.
Capacity Building: The MoU includes provisions for training programs aimed at enhancing investigative skills related to cybercriminal activities, ensuring that personnel are well-equipped to tackle these challenges.
- The Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C) under the Ministry of Home Affairs will be responsible for executing the MoU from India’s side, while the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), along with its sub-agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Homeland Security Investigations Cyber Crimes Center (C3), will lead implementation efforts from the U.S. side.
Addressing Common Security Challenges: The MoU recognizes the intricate linkages between cybercrime and broader security issues such as terrorism, violent extremism, drug trafficking, organized crime, human trafficking, illegal migration, and money laundering.
Strengthening Security Cooperation: This agreement is part of a broader effort to enhance India-U.S. security cooperation as part of their comprehensive strategic partnership, emphasizing the importance of international collaboration in addressing cyber threats.

What is the strategic significance of IMEC with respect to India and USA’s common interests?

Economic Integration: The IMEC (network of ports, railways, and roads) aims to create a seamless flow of goods and services among the participating countries, which include India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and several European nations.

- For instance, the corridor could significantly reduce transit times for shipping goods to Europe by up to 40% compared to traditional routes like the Suez Canal. Such improvements lead to increased trade volumes and economic growth.
- The potential for establishing Free Trade zones along the corridor further enhances this economic integration by reducing tariffs and regulatory barriers.
Geopolitical Influence: Supporting IMEC allows the U.S. to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Middle East through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
- By investing in IMEC, the U.S. can strengthen its alliances with key partners in Asia and Europe while promoting democratic values and stability. The alignment of interests among the U.S., India, and European nations within this corridor serves as a counterweight to China.
- For example, the collaboration between India and Gulf monarchies under the IMEC framework is seen as a strategic move to build economic interdependence that can mitigate geopolitical tensions.
Holistic and Sustainable Connectivity: The initiative aims to establish secure High-speed data pipelines that would facilitate the export of India’s IT services to Europe and West Asia, which is crucial for modern economies that rely heavily on digital services.
- Moreover, there are plans for Renewable Energy Grids that will enable countries along the corridor to share clean energy resources efficiently.
- For example, hydrogen pipelines are proposed to transport green hydrogen produced in the Gulf states to Europe, aligning with global energy transition goals.

What are the limitations in enhancing strategic ties over IMEC?

Logistical and Connectivity Issues: Implementing IMEC requires extensive coordination among multiple countries, involving various modes of transportation.
- For Example, If one country has outdated ports or railways, it can slow down the movement of goods, making trade less efficient. For instance, delays at a port in India could hold up shipments to Europe.
Regulatory Harmonization: The diverse regulatory frameworks and systems and regulations of the participating nations pose significant challenges.
- For Example, if India has strict import regulations while a Middle Eastern country has more relaxed rules, it could lead to conflicts about how goods are traded.
- Finding common ground on regulations is essential for smooth operations.
Security Concerns: The region traversed by IMEC is susceptible to security threats, including terrorism and political instability.
- For Example, ongoing conflicts, such as those in Syria and Yemen, along with historical rivalries (e.g., Saudi-Iranian tensions), complicate efforts to ensure a secure environment necessary for attracting investments and fostering economic growth.
China Factor: If China offers better financing or faster infrastructure development for its routes, countries (esp European) might prefer to partner with China rather than engage with IMEC.
- As of 2023, BRI engagement has surpassed USD 1 trillion, with approximately USD 419 billion allocated to non-financial investments and USD 634 billion to construction contracts (which is much higher than IMEC).
Financial Commitments: The ambitious nature of IMEC demands substantial financial investments from participating nations.
- But, if a country like Iraq struggles with its economy, it may not be able to contribute financially to the project, which could slow down progress for everyone involved.

Way Forward:

The IMEC represents a strategic opportunity for the USA to enhance its geopolitical influence while promoting economic growth and stability among participating nations.
As the U.S. navigates complex international dynamics, prioritizing IMEC will be crucial in establishing a resilient and interconnected economic framework that benefits all stakeholders involved, ultimately contributing to a more stable and prosperous global order.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF)

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: UNDOF

Why in the News?

UN Secretary-General paid tribute to Brigadier General Amitabh Jha of India, who died serving with the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan Heights.

About United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF)

The UNDOF is a peacekeeping mission established by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to oversee the implementation of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Syria following the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
- The Yom Kippur War (October 6-24, 1973) was fought between Egypt and Israel (in the Sinai) and Israel and Syria (in the Golan Heights).
It operates in the Golan Heights, a region of strategic importance and long-standing contention.
The UNSC formally established UNDOF under Resolution 350 to:

Maintain the ceasefire.
Supervise the disengagement of forces.
Monitor the separation zones established by the agreement.

UNDOF became operational on June 6, 1974, with an initial deployment of approximately 1,200 personnel.
Its mandate is renewed every 6 months by the UNSC, emphasizing its ongoing role in maintaining stability.

Structural Mandate and Functions

UNDOF’s core responsibilities include:

Ceasefire Maintenance:
- Monitor and ensure adherence to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Syria.
Supervision of Disengagement:
- Oversee the withdrawal of forces to their respective areas as per the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement.
Monitoring Areas of Separation and Limitation:
- Area of Separation (AOS):
  - A demilitarized zone controlled by UNDOF, where no military activity is permitted.
  - Approx. 80 km long, ranging from 200 m to 8 km wide.
  - Marked by barrel lines for identification on the ground.
- Areas of Limitation:
  - Zones on both Israeli and Syrian sides where the number of troops and types of weapons are restricted.

Functions:

Observation and Reporting:
- Monitor troop movements and ensure no violations of the agreement occur.
- Regularly report to the UN Secretary-General and the UNSC on ground conditions.
Civilian Assistance: Facilitate the return of Syrian civilians to their homes in the AOS under the agreement.
Verification of Compliance: Conduct inspections to ensure adherence to restrictions in Areas of Limitation.
Confidence-Building Measures: Act as a neutral party to reduce tensions between Israel and Syria.
Liaison Services: Maintain open communication channels between Israeli and Syrian forces to prevent misunderstandings or escalation.

PYQ:

[2015] The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events is related to:

(a) Central Asia

(b) Middle East

(d) Central Africa

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Syrian Crisis and its implications for Iran and regional geopolitics

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Mains level: Extended Neighbourhood; West Asia; Crises in the Middle East;

Why in the News?

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria significantly challenges Iran’s regional influence, disrupting Tehran’s efforts to sustain its “Shiite crescent” strategy across the Middle East.

The “Shiite crescent” strategy refers to Iran’s geopolitical ambition to establish a contiguous sphere of influence among Shia-majority regions, extending from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, thereby enhancing its regional power.

syria

What are the Bilateral Ties between Iran and Syria?

Strategic Partnership: Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Syria has been Iran’s key ally, facilitating Iranian influence throughout the Levant. This partnership allowed Iran to support Hezbollah in Lebanon and maintain a foothold against Sunni Arab states.
Corridor for Influence: Syria served as a vital corridor for Iranian resources and military support to its proxies, reinforcing Tehran’s “Shiite crescent” strategy aimed at linking Iran with its allies across the region.
Historical Context: The relationship strengthened under Bashar al-Assad, despite being challenged by regional Sunni powers. The Assad regime’s reliance on Iranian support became more pronounced during the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011.

What are the challenges for Tehran?

Loss of Influence: The fall of Assad represents a major setback for Iran, as it loses a critical ally needed to sustain its influence in the region. This diminishes Tehran’s ability to project power through its network of proxies and disrupts its strategic depth in the Levant.
Operational Setbacks: Iran’s military presence in Syria had already been compromised by Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah leaders and other Iranian-affiliated groups. The loss of Assad exacerbates these challenges, leaving Tehran to reassess its military and diplomatic strategies.
Increased Regional Competition: With Assad gone, regional powers like Turkey and Gulf states are likely to vie for influence in Syria, further complicating Iran’s position and diminishing its regional leverage.

What are the Geopolitical implications for the countries in the region?

Power Vacuum: The collapse of Assad creates a power vacuum in which regional players such as Turkey, Iran, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states will compete to fill, recalibrating their strategies to safeguard national interests.
Increased Tensions: Sunni Arab states may heighten efforts to counter Iranian influence, potentially leading to escalated sectarian tensions and a resurgence of militant groups like ISIS seeking to exploit the instability.
Israel’s Strategic Posture: Israel is expected to adopt a more aggressive stance against Iranian-affiliated groups in Syria and Lebanon, aiming to prevent any reconstitution of Iranian influence along its borders.
Western Involvement: The U.S. and European nations may intensify their involvement through diplomatic channels and interventions to curb Iranian expansion while preventing militant organizations from re-emerging in the region.

What are the steps taken by Indian government?

India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC): Launched during India’s G20 presidency, this corridor aims to enhance connectivity and trade between India, the Middle East, and Europe. It seeks to integrate various countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and European nations, facilitating faster movement of goods and improving maritime security.
Joint Action Plan with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): India and the GCC have adopted a Joint Action Plan for 2024-2028, which encompasses cooperation in various sectors such as health, trade, energy, agriculture, and transportation.

Way forward:

Strengthen Diplomatic Ties: Engage with key regional actors like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Turkey to promote stability in Syria and counterbalance Iranian influence while safeguarding India’s energy and trade interests in the Middle East.
Counter-Terrorism Collaboration: Enhance intelligence-sharing and counter-terrorism cooperation with allies to mitigate the risks of militant groups like ISIS exploiting the instability in Syria.
Support Reconstruction Efforts: Participate in Syria’s post-conflict reconstruction through investments in infrastructure, showcasing India’s soft power and gaining strategic goodwill in the region.

Mains PYQ:

Q In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to its situation? (UPSC IAS/2018)

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The Crisis In The Middle East

What is the UNSC Resolution 1701?

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: UNSC Resolution 1701

Why in the News?

Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire after 13 months of rising conflict, though it is linked to the UN Resolution 1701, which has not been fully implemented.

About UNSC Resolution 1701:

	Details
What is it?	Passed on August 11, 2006, following the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah. Aimed to end hostilities, ensure the security of Israel and Lebanon, and establish long-term peace along the Israel-Lebanon border. Also designed to prevent Hezbollah from using southern Lebanon as a base for military operations against Israel.
Key Provisions and Objectives	Cessation of Hostilities: Aimed at halting the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Disarmament of Armed Groups: Called for the disarmament of Hezbollah and all other armed groups in Lebanon, leaving only the Lebanese state with weapons authority. Israeli Withdrawal: Mandated Israel’s full withdrawal from southern Lebanon, which had been occupied since the 1982 Lebanon War. Lebanese Forces Deployment: Directed the Lebanese government to deploy its army in southern Lebanon to ensure peace and prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament. UNIFIL Deployment: Increased deployment of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to monitor the border and ensure compliance. Arms Embargo: Imposed restrictions to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah. Implementation of Taif Accords (1989): The resolution emphasizes the full implementation of this accord, which is critical for the disarmament of non-state actors in Lebanon and the consolidation of Lebanese state authority across the country.
Implementation and Violations	Partial Implementation: While Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah retained its weapons and continued its terror operations. Lebanese Army Deployment: The Lebanese army was deployed in southern Lebanon but struggled to assert full control, as Hezbollah’s influence remained strong in the region. UNIFIL’s Role: UNIFIL, while active, faced challenges in fully enforcing the provisions of the resolution due to Hezbollah’s continued presence and the complexities of local politics. Violations: Despite the resolution’s provisions, violations have included Hezbollah’s stockpiling of weapons and cross-border skirmishes, as well as the failure to fully disarm all armed groups, undermining the resolution’s goals. Taif Accords Violation: This has hindered the establishment of complete state sovereignty in Lebanon.

PYQ:

[2018] “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

International Criminal Court (ICC)

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: International Criminal Court (ICC) and its jurisdiction

Why in the News?

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrant for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

About the International Criminal Court (ICC)

	Details
What is it?	• First international permanent court to prosecute individuals for serious international crimes. • Established under the Rome Statute (1998, w.e.f 2002). • 124 countries are States Parties to the Rome Statute.• Headquarters: The Hague, Netherlands.
Structural Mandate	• Official languages: English, French, Arabic, Chinese, Russian, and Spanish. • Members: 124 States Parties to the Rome Statute; Palestine (2015) and Malaysia (2019) became the latest members. • Notable non-members: India, Israel, the US, Russia, Ukraine, and China. • Funding: By contributions from member states and voluntary contributions. • Enforcement: Relies on state cooperation for enforcement, as it does not have its own police force.
Composition	• Judges: Consists of 18 judges elected by the Assembly of States Parties for a term of 9 years. • Prosecutor: Leads the Office of the Prosecutor and investigates crimes. • Additional Components: Includes the Trust Fund for Victims (2004), Detention Centre, and the Assembly of States Parties.
Jurisdiction	Prosecutes 4 main crimes: War Crimes: Violations of the laws of war. Crimes against Humanity: Acts like murder, enslavement, and torture. Genocide: Intent to destroy a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group. Crimes of Aggression: Unjustified military action against another state. • ICC can only prosecute crimes committed after the Rome Statute’s entry into force (July 1, 2002).

PYQ:

[2018] “Rule of Law Index” is released by which of the following?

Amnesty International
International Court of Justice
The Office of UN Commissioner for Human Rights
World Justice Project

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Will Riyadh summit have an impact on Gaza war?

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Mains level: Importance of Middle Eastern countries;

Why in the News?

Saudi Arabia recently hosted a summit of Arab and Islamic leaders, urging an immediate halt to Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon while addressing the broader Palestine issue.

What were the key outcomes of the Riyadh summit on the Gaza conflict?

Condemnation of Israeli Actions: The leaders from Arab and Islamic countries condemned the Israeli military’s actions in Gaza, describing them as “shocking and horrific crimes,” including accusations of genocide and ethnic cleansing.
Call for Investigation: They demanded the establishment of an “independent, credible” international committee to investigate these alleged crimes committed by Israel.
Support for Palestinian Statehood: The summit urged for measures to end the Israeli occupation and called for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on the borders prior to June 4, 1967, with East Jerusalem (Al-Quds) as its capital, aligning with the two-state solution and the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002.

How does the summit reflect changing dynamics in regional politics?

Shift from Normalization: The summit reflects a significant shift in regional politics where Arab nations, which had previously moved towards normalising relations with Israel (as seen in the Abraham Accords), are now re-emphasizing the importance of addressing the Palestinian issue as a prerequisite for peace.
Collective Arab Stance: The gathering showcased a united front among Arab leaders in response to Israel’s actions, indicating a collective anger and a strategic pivot back towards supporting Palestinian rights rather than sidelining them for diplomatic ties with Israel.
Impact on Saudi-Israel Relations: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s strong condemnation of Israel’s actions signals a deterioration in potential normalization talks with Israel, as any future agreements are now explicitly linked to resolving the Palestinian question.

What is the possibility of the Arab World Joining the war?

Unlikelihood of Military Action: Despite heightened tensions and strong rhetoric, it is highly unlikely that any Arab nation will engage militarily against Israel. Historical precedents show that while Arab states have condemned Israeli actions, they have refrained from direct military confrontation since 1973.
Focus on Diplomatic Solutions: The current sentiment among Arab nations leans towards seeking diplomatic resolutions rather than military involvement, especially given their previous moves towards normalizing relations with Israel.
Strategic Realignment: The recent developments suggest a subtle realignment in West Asia’s strategic landscape, where Arab states may prioritize internal stability and regional cooperation over direct military engagement, even as they express solidarity with Palestine.

What can India do to resolve the Gaza conflict?

Mediation and Dialogue Facilitation: India can leverage its strong relationships with both Arab countries and Israel to act as a neutral mediator, facilitating dialogue and promoting peaceful negotiations between the conflicting parties.
Support for International Initiatives: India can advocate for a renewed focus on the two-state solution within international forums like the UN, aligning with global efforts to establish a sustainable, independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

Way forward:

Strengthen Diplomatic Efforts: Arab nations should focus on reinforcing diplomatic pressure on Israel and the international community to address the Palestinian issue, promoting dialogue and supporting peaceful resolutions.
Support Palestinian Unity: Arab countries should work towards fostering unity within Palestinian leadership to present a coherent political front and advance their cause for statehood in international forums.

Mains PYQ:

Q How will the I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics? (UPSC IAS/2022)

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The Crisis In The Middle East

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

Why in the News?

Israel’s Knesset has banned the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) from operating within its borders, citing alleged ties between UNRWA staff and Hamas.

What is Israel’s Knesset?

The Knesset is Israel’s unicameral parliament, established in 1949.
It consists of 120 members, elected every four years through proportional representation, and is responsible for legislation, government oversight, and electing the president.

About UNRWA:

	Details
Full Name	United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
Establishment	Established by the UN General Assembly in 1949.
Primary Purpose	To provide relief, healthcare, and education for Palestinian refugees displaced after the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.
Headquarters	Originally in Beirut, moved to Vienna in 1978, and relocated to Gaza in 1996.
Mandate Renewal	The mandate has been renewed repeatedly, currently extended until June 30, 2026.
Fields of Operation	Operates in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.
Beneficiaries	Supports over five million Palestinian refugees and their descendants displaced in 1948 and 1967.
Services Provided	• Education • Healthcare • Social services • Infrastructure improvement • Microfinance • Emergency assistance
Funding Sources	Primarily funded by voluntary contributions from UN member states, with limited funding from the UN Regular Budget for staffing costs.
Leadership	Led by a Commissioner-General, appointed by the UN Secretary-General with General Assembly approval.
Controversies	• Disputed mandate regarding descendants of original refugees. • Allegations of staff affiliations with militant groups.
Global Response	Condemned by the international community regarding bans and criticisms, with calls to support UNRWA’s humanitarian role.

Its role and significance:

Humanitarian Aid: UNRWA provides essential support, including food, shelter, healthcare, and education to over five million Palestinian refugees.
Education and Empowerment: Operates schools for 500,000 children and supports microfinance programs to promote economic self-sufficiency.
Crisis Response: Plays a vital role in emergency situations and advocates for the rights of Palestinian refugees on an international level.

PYQ:

[2015] Amnesty International is:

(a) an agency of the United Nations to help refugees of civil wars

(b) a global Human Rights Movement

(d) an inter-governmental agency to cater to medical emergencies in war-ravaged regions

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Places in news: Jordan Valley

World Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Jordan River and its Valley

Jordan Valley

Why in the News?

Extremist groups held drone strikes on Israeli territory in the Jordan Valley (which forms Jordan’s border with Israel and the West Bank).

About Jordan Valley:

	Details
Geography	• Part of the Great Rift Valley, extending from the Sea of Galilee to the Dead Sea. • Forms a natural border between Jordan, Israel, and the West Bank. • Low-lying, with parts below sea level, especially near the Dead Sea.
Climate	• Semi-arid to arid, with hot summers and mild winters. • Limited rainfall, necessitating irrigation for agriculture.
Significance	• An essential agricultural region, growing citrus, dates, and vegetables. • The Jordan River is a vital water source for agriculture and drinking water. • Ecological corridor for migratory birds.
History	• Rich in biblical and historical significance, including Jesus’ baptism in the Jordan River. • Archaeological sites from ancient civilizations like the Canaanites and Romans.
Geopolitical Aspects	• Critical in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with strategic importance for security and border control. • Vital for Palestinian economic development and a future state. • Shared water resources create tensions between Israel, Jordan, and Syria.
Economic Activities	• Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy. • Tourism is also significant due to religious and historical sites.
Environmental Concerns	• Water scarcity and the shrinking Dead Sea due to river diversion are major issues. • Pollution and overuse of the Jordan River affect water quality and ecosystem health.

PYQ:

[2015] Which one of the following countries of South-West Asia does not open out to the Mediterranean Sea?

(a) Syria

(b) Jordan

(d) Israel

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The Crisis In The Middle East

What is THAAD?

Prelims Only | Security Issues | Mains Paper 3: Organized Crime & Terrorism

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: THAAD Defense System

thaad

Why in the News?

The US has announced that it will send its advanced THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense) missile system to Israel, along with US troops to operate it.

What is THAAD?

THAAD is an advanced missile defense system developed by Lockheed Martin Corporation in the 1990s.
It is designed to intercept and destroy short-range (up to 1,000 km), medium-range (1,000–3,000 km), and intermediate-range (3,000–5,000 km) ballistic missile threats during their terminal phase of flight.

Key Features of THAAD:

- Uses “hit-to-kill” technology to destroy missiles.
- Can defend a larger area than the older Patriot Air and Missile Defense System.
- Provides a rapidly deployable capability both inside and outside the atmosphere.

India’s AD-1 missile interceptor under the Phase 2 Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system, is similar to the THAAD missile system used by the US.

AD-1 and AD-2 interceptor missiles are developed to intercept ballistic missiles, including ICBMs, with ranges over 2,000 km.
Swordfish LRTR, derived from Israel’s Green Pine radar, has an upgraded detection range of 1,500 km for enhanced missile tracking.
The system intercepts both exo-atmospherically and endo-atmospherically, creating a comprehensive missile defence shield.
It can manage multiple missile threats simultaneously, ensuring defence against complex attack scenarios.
A floating test range is being developed for missile trials over the sea, enabling tests at higher altitudes and ranges up to 1,500 km.
INS Dhruv, equipped with advanced radars, monitors missile tests and supports surveillance during defense operations.

Significance of Sending THAAD to Israel

The decision to send THAAD to Israel is significant for several reasons:

It is part of broader US military adjustments in the region to support Israel’s defense and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias.
The deployment signals increased US involvement in the conflict.

PYQ:

[2018] What is “Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)”, sometimes seen in the news?

(a) An Israeli radar system

(b) India’s indigenous anti-missile programme

(d) A defence collaboration between Japan and South Korea

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Nile nations agree on Water-Sharing without Egypt’s nod

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Nile River System

nile river

Why in the News?

A regional partnership of 10 countries announced that an agreement on the equitable use of Nile River water resources has come into effect, despite Egypt’s opposition.

Why discuss this?

The legal status of the “cooperative framework” was confirmed by the African Union after South Sudan joined the treaty.
The treaty is backed by the Nile Basin Initiative.
Countries Involved:
- Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania have ratified the agreement.
- Egypt and Sudan have refused to sign.
- Congo abstained, while Kenya has yet to submit its ratification documents.

About Nile River:

	Details
Length	Approximately 6,650 km (4,130 miles), making it the longest river in the world.
Tributaries	White Nile (originating from Lake Victoria in Uganda) and Blue Nile (originating from Lake Tana in Ethiopia).
Countries Traversed	11 countries: Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, DR Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Egypt.
Source	White Nile from Lake Victoria, Blue Nile from Lake Tana.
Mouth	Mediterranean Sea, forming the Nile Delta in Egypt.
Major Cities	Includes Cairo, Khartoum, and Alexandria.
Key Dams	Aswan High Dam (Egypt), controls flooding, generates hydroelectric power, and forms Lake Nasser. Built in 1970 across the Nile in Aswan, Egypt; helps in irrigation, flood control, and hydroelectric power generation but also disrupts silt flow.
Economic Importance	Provides over 90% of water for Egypt and Sudan; vital for agriculture, fishing, industry, and energy production.
Disputes	Between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan over water rights, particularly due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Historical Treaties	1929 and 1959 Nile Water Agreements allocated water mostly to Egypt and Sudan; upstream countries seek revision. Nile Basin Initiative (NBI): Established in 1999, it is a partnership among Nile Basin countries aimed at promoting cooperation, development, and sustainable management of the Nile’s resources.

PYQ:

[2020] Consider the following pairs:

	River	Flows into
1.	Mekong	Andaman Sea
2.	Thames	Irish Sea
3.	Volga	Caspian Sea
4.	Zambezi	Indian Ocean

Which of the pairs given above is/are correctly matched?

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 4 only

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The Crisis In The Middle East

What is the UNIFIL?

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: UNIFIL, UN Peacekeeping Mission

Why in the News?

India has expressed concerns about the safety of UN peacekeepers stationed in south Lebanon, after they came under fire from Israeli forces.
- Among the peacekeepers are 600 Indian soldiers, who are part of the UN peacekeeping mission and are stationed along the 120-km Blue Line on the Israel-Lebanon border.

What is UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon)?

	Details
Established	March 1978, following Israel’s invasion of Lebanon
UN Resolutions	Established under UNSC Resolutions 425 and 426
Primary Objectives	Confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon Restore international peace and security Assist the Government of Lebanon in regaining control over southern Lebanon
Area of Operation	Southern Lebanon, near the border with Israel (Blue Line)
Personnel	Over 10,000 peacekeepers from 50 countries (both civilian and military personnel)
Mission	Prevent hostilities and maintain peace along the 121-km Blue Line Ensure that no weapons or fighters are present in the region Report violations to the UN Security Council
Rules of Engagement	Peacekeepers are armed but are only allowed to use force when their safety or civilian safety is at risk
Headquarters	Naqoura, southern Lebanon
Peacekeeper Status	Not soldiers but impartial peacekeepers, present with the consent of the host country, Lebanon

Significance of UNIFIL

Conflict Prevention: UNIFIL monitors the Blue Line and prevents escalations between Israel and Lebanon.
Civilian Protection: It safeguards civilians and supports humanitarian aid efforts in conflict zones.
Support for Lebanon: UNIFIL helps the Lebanese government extend control in the south alongside the Lebanese Armed Forces.

PYQ:

[2015] Discuss the impediments India is facing in its pursuit of a permanent seat in UN Security Council.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

The status of the civil war in Sudan

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Mains level: Regional issues in Africa;

Why in the News?

On September 26, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) initiated a significant offensive against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and Bahri. As a result, the conflict, which had been relatively calm for several months, has reignited with increased intensity.

What is the extent of the war?

Duration and Scope: The civil war has lasted for over 18 months, initially erupting from a power struggle between the two military factions—the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). What began in Khartoum has spread to various regions, including Omdurman, Bahri, Port Sudan, El Fasher, and areas in Darfur and Kordofan.
Casualties and Displacement: The UN reports over 20,000 fatalities since the conflict began. Additionally, the International Organization for Migration estimates 10.89 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) as of October 1.
Worsening Humanitarian Crisis: Access to aid and healthcare has become severely restricted, particularly in Darfur.
- The UN has declared famine in specific camps like Zamzam, affecting nearly 500,000 IDPs. Currently, 25.6 million people—more than half of Sudan’s population—face critical food insecurity.

How have ethnic tensions and rivalries played a part in the war?

Ethnic Conflict: The war has evolved beyond a military rivalry, intensifying along ethnic lines. The RSF, composed of predominantly Arab militias, has been involved in targeting non-Arab communities, such as the Masalit, particularly in the Darfur region.
Militia Involvement: Various regional ethnic militias have taken sides in the conflict, complicating the dynamics further. The SAF has allied with the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement, while the RSF has garnered support from Arab militias.
Historical reason: Ethnic tensions are rooted in historical grievances, exacerbating violence and leading to retaliatory attacks between communities, which have fueled the conflict.

What are the implications for the region?

Mass Displacement: Over two million refugees have fled to neighboring countries, including Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. This has strained resources in host countries and raised concerns about a potential migrant crisis in Europe.
Ethnic Clashes in Neighboring Regions: The instability in Sudan has triggered ethnic violence along the borders with South Sudan and Ethiopia, particularly in contested areas like Abyei and El Fashaga.
Economic Impact: The ongoing conflict jeopardizes essential infrastructures, such as oil pipelines from South Sudan to the Red Sea, threatening regional economic stability.
Cross-Border Tensions: A lack of effective governance in Sudan has led to increased ethnic tensions and clashes in border regions, which could have wider implications for regional security and stability.

Way forward:

Facilitate Peace Talks: India can leverage its diplomatic relations with the conflicting factions (SAF and RSF) to encourage dialogue and support peace initiatives through multilateral platforms like the African Union and the UN.
Strengthen Regional Alliances: India can collaborate with neighbouring countries (Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia) to manage the refugee crisis and promote stability through joint security initiatives.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Philadelphi Corridor

World Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Philadelphi Corridor

Why in the News?

The Philadelphi Corridor is a key issue in ceasefire talks as Israel’s war on Gaza continues, with Palestinian deaths nearing 41,000.

About Philadelphi Corridor

The Philadelphi Corridor is a strategically significant strip of land between the Gaza-Egypt border.
It spans about 14 kilometers in length and 100 meters in width.
This area plays a critical role in regional security and the geopolitics surrounding Gaza, Israel, and Egypt.
It runs from the Mediterranean Sea in the north to the Kerem Shalom crossing with Israel in the south.
It includes the Rafah crossing, the main border point between Gaza and Egypt.
It acts as a buffer zone between Egypt and Gaza, with control over it influencing security and smuggling activities in the region.

Significance for Israel

The Corridor became significant after the 1979 Camp David peace treaty, allowing Israel to maintain a limited military presence.
In 2005, Israel withdrew from Gaza, including the corridor, leaving Egypt and the Palestinian Authority responsible for security.
In 2007, Hamas took control of Gaza, increasing smuggling activities through tunnels in the corridor.
Israel regained control of the corridor in May 2023 during a ground offensive in Gaza.
The corridor has since been central to Israel’s strategy for controlling arms smuggling and preventing Hamas from using it as a supply route.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Indian military export to Israel — aiding genocide

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Mains level: India-Israel relation;

Why in the News?

A Supreme Court Bench, led by the Chief Justice of India, recently dismissed a petition by former civil servants and activists seeking suspension of military export licenses to Israel during the ongoing conflict.

India’s Ongoing Exports to Israel

India exports military equipment and arms to Israel, which includes both public sector and private sector companies supplying defense-related materials.
During the ongoing conflict in Gaza, the Indian government has continued to issue licenses for the export of arms and military equipment to Israel, despite international concerns about potential violations of humanitarian law.
India has developed a strong defense relationship with Israel, marked by regular arms deals, military cooperation, and technology transfers.

How does India’s arms exports to Israel violate the law?

Complicity in Genocide: By exporting arms to Israel, India risks being complicit in violations of international humanitarian law, including potential war crimes and genocide committed by Israel, as indicated by various international bodies.
- As a signatory to the Genocide Convention, India is obligated (Article 1) to prevent genocide and avoid providing aid or assistance to any state engaged in such acts.
Indian Constitution: Article 21 of the Indian Constitution guarantees the right to life and personal liberty to citizens as well as to foreigners.
International Court of Justice (ICJ) Precedents: ICJ rulings have repeatedly warned states against exporting arms to conflict zones where such weapons might be used to violate international law.

Genocide Convention (1948)

Definition and Purpose: The Genocide Convention, adopted by the United Nations in 1948, aims to prevent and punish acts of genocide, which include killings and other acts intended to destroy, in whole or part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group.
Obligations of Signatory States:
- States party to the Convention are obligated to prevent and punish acts of genocide, both within their territories and in international contexts.
- Article III of the Convention makes states’ complicity in genocide a punishable offense, meaning states must refrain from providing material or logistical support to nations engaged in genocide.
India’s Commitment: India ratified the Genocide Convention, thereby binding itself to these obligations. Under this Convention, India is required to ensure that it is not complicit in such crimes through its actions, including military exports.

International Pressure and ICJ Opinions

ICJ Provisional Measures (2023): In January 2023, the ICJ ordered provisional measures against Israel for violations of the Genocide Convention in the Gaza Strip, including an immediate halt to killings and destruction.
Global Response: Many countries like Canada, Spain, and the UK have suspended arms exports to Israel, in compliance with their obligations under international law to prevent genocide and war crimes.
India’s Non-Compliance: Despite these international legal obligations and warnings, India continues to provide military aid to Israel, raising questions about its commitment to international humanitarian law.

Conclusion: India’s continued arms exports to Israel, despite international legal concerns, highlight the delicate balance between strategic defence relations and adherence to international humanitarian obligations under the Genocide and Geneva Conventions.

Mains PYQ:

Q India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (UPSC IAS/2018)

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Why Israel-Hezbollah conflict is heating up?

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Location of Golan Heights

Mains level: Issues between Israel and Palestine

Why in the news?

Israel has announced that it would retaliate strongly against Hezbollah, accusing the group of being responsible for a rocket attack that killed 12 children and teenagers at a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Background of Golan Heights:

The Golan Heights was captured by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967 from Syria and has since been a point of contention between the two nations. In 1981, Israel effectively annexed the territory, a move not recognized by the international community.
Strategic Importance: The Golan Heights offers a commanding view of northern Israel and southern Syria, making it a critical military and strategic area. Its elevation allows for surveillance and control over surrounding regions, including the ability to monitor movements from Syria.

Causes of the conflict:

Support for Palestinians: Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel are framed as support for Palestinians facing Israeli bombardment in Gaza, particularly following the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. Hezbollah, as a member of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance, has aligned itself with Hamas and other militant groups in the region.
Historical Hostilities: The conflict is rooted in a long history of hostility between Israel and Hezbollah, which was founded in 1982 to combat Israeli forces in Lebanon. Hezbollah views Israel as an illegitimate state and seeks its removal, which fuels ongoing tensions and military engagements.
Escalating Military Capabilities: Hezbollah has significantly enhanced its military capabilities since the 2006 war, possessing a large arsenal of rockets and advanced weaponry. This includes the ability to strike deep into Israeli territory, increasing the stakes for both sides in any conflict.

Implications of the Conflict

Humanitarian Impact: The ongoing hostilities have resulted in significant civilian casualties and displacement on both sides of the border. Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed Hezbollah fighters and civilians, while Hezbollah’s attacks have resulted in Israeli casualties. The humanitarian toll is exacerbated by the broader context of the Gaza war.
Regional Stability: The conflict poses a risk of broader regional destabilization, potentially drawing in other actors and escalating into a full-scale war.
Political Ramifications: The conflict has significant political implications for both Israel and Lebanon. In Israel, the displacement of civilians has become a pressing political issue, while Hezbollah’s actions may influence its standing within Lebanon and the broader Shiite community.

How escalation can be avoided on the Global Stage?

Diplomatic Engagement: The United States and other international actors must continue to engage in diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions. This includes facilitating dialogue between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as addressing the underlying issues related to the Gaza conflict. A ceasefire in Gaza could help reduce hostilities in Lebanon.
Regional Agreements: Need to make efforts to establish regional agreements that address territorial disputes and security concerns that can mitigate the risk of conflict.
Monitoring and Mediation: International bodies, including the United Nations, should increase their monitoring of the situation and mediate discussions between the conflicting parties. This can help prevent misunderstandings and miscalculations that could lead to escalated military responses.

Role of India in this situation: (Way forward)

Engaging with Arab Nations: India should also maintain and strengthen its relationships with Arab nations, including Lebanon, to ensure a balanced approach. This engagement can help India navigate the complexities of the situation and position itself as a neutral party that seeks to promote peace and stability in the region.
Facilitating Dialogue: By promoting dialogue between the conflicting parties, India can help de-escalate tensions and work towards a peaceful resolution.

Mains PYQ:

Q India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (2018)

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The Crisis In The Middle East

How the Six-Day War of 1967 transformed the Middle East?

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Bordering countries of Israel

Mains level: Impacts of the War

Why in the News?

Fifty-seven years have elapsed since the Six-Day War ( June 5 to June 10, 1967) fought between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

Causes of the War

Historical Tensions: Rooted in the establishment of Israel in 1948, which resulted in the displacement and death of thousands of Palestinian Arabs, creating a massive refugee crisis.
Egypt-Israel Relations: Particularly hostile due to territorial and water disputes, exacerbated by Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s aggressive stance against Israel.
Cold War Influences: Military build-up in Israel and Arab states along Cold War lines, with Israel supported by the US and Arab states by the Soviet Union.
Provocations: Egypt’s naval blockade of the Straits of Tiran in May 1967, cutting off Israel’s maritime access to the Red Sea and mobilizing forces in the Sinai Peninsula.

Outbreak of the War

On June 5, 1967, Israel launched a pre-emptive airstrike on Egyptian airfields, swiftly gaining air superiority and neutralising the Egyptian Air Force.
Israel’s ground forces advanced into the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip, territories occupied by Egypt.
Jordan and Syria entered the war, attacking Israel from the east and north, but were quickly repelled.

Impacts of the War

Territorial Gains for Israel: In less than a week, Israel captured the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza from Egypt, the Golan Heights from Syria, and the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan.
Geopolitical Shift: The defeat was a major blow to Arab nations, establishing Israel’s military and geopolitical dominance in the region.
Emergence of Palestinian Nationalism: The war spurred the rise of Palestinian nationalism and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) emerged as a significant political entity.
Continued Conflict: Ongoing tensions and conflicts in the region, including the 1973 Yom Kippur War, are direct results of the 1967 war and subsequent Israeli occupation of key territories.
Unresolved Refugee Crisis: The plight of Palestinian refugees displaced during and after the war remains unresolved, continuing to fuel regional instability.

Conclusion: The Six-Day War was thus a pivotal event that not only redefined territorial boundaries but also reshaped political dynamics and set the stage for ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

Mains PYQ:

Q “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (UPSC IAS/2018)

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Arab League demands UN Peacekeepers in Palestine

IOCR Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Arab League; its members

Mains level: NA

Why in the News?

The Arab League called for UN peacekeeping forces in the Palestinian territories during a summit in Bahrain’s Manama. The “Manama Declaration” issued by the league sought UNPKF in the occupied Palestinian territories” until a two-state solution is implemented.

Back2Basics: United Nations Peacekeeping

UN Peacekeeping is a collective effort by the international community, led by the United Nations, to maintain peace and security in regions affected by conflict.
UN peacekeepers are often referred to as Blue Berets or Blue Helmets because of their light blue berets or helmets) can include soldiers, police officers, and civilian personnel.

History:

The concept of UN peacekeeping emerged in the aftermath of World War II, with the establishment of the United Nations in 1945.
The first UN peacekeeping mission was established in 1948, following the Arab-Israeli War, to monitor the ceasefire between Israel and its Arab neighbours.
- This mission, known as the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), set the precedent for future peacekeeping operations.
Since then, the scope and complexity of UN peacekeeping have evolved significantly, with operations conducted across the globe in regions affected by conflict, civil war, and humanitarian crises.

Operations:

UN Peacekeeping is guided by three basic principles:

Consent of the parties
Impartiality
Non-use of force except in self-defence and defence of the mandate

UN peacekeeping operations are deployed with the consent of the main parties to the conflict. It can be deployed at the request of the parties involved in a conflict or with the authorisation of the UN Security Council.
The objectives may vary depending on the specific context but often include monitoring ceasefires, disarming combatants, facilitating the delivery of humanitarian aid, promoting human rights, and supporting the establishment of democratic governance structures.
UN peacekeeping operations operate under the principles of impartiality, consent of the parties, and non-use of force except in self-defence and defence of the mandate.

India’s Role:

India has been one of the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping operations since their inception.
India has contributed nearly 195,000 troops, the largest number from any country, and participated in more than 49 missions and 168 supreme sacrifices while serving in UN missions.

About Arab League

	Details
Establishment	Founded on March 22, 1945, in Cairo, Egypt.
Founding Members	Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria.
Objective	Promote economic, cultural, political, and military cooperation among member states. Safeguard independence and sovereignty.
Functions	Operates on consensus among member states. Decisions are made through consultations and discussions. Regular meetings among Arab leaders to address regional issues, formulate policies, and coordinate actions. Specialised committees and councils address specific areas of cooperation, such as economic affairs, social affairs, and defence.
Member States	Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Kuwait, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Somalia, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
Observer Nations	Non-Arab countries with observer status include Brazil, Eritrea, India, Venezuela, and others. No voting rights are accorded to Observer nations.
Important Achievements	Proposal of the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002. Coordination of military efforts in various conflicts. Promotion of economic cooperation through initiatives such as the Arab Free Trade Area. Facilitation of cultural and educational exchange programs among member states.
Challenges	Internal divisions, Differences of opinion over the Palestinian-Israeli conflict etc.

PYQ:

[2014] Recently, a series of uprisings of people referred to as ‘Arab Spring’ originally started from

(a) Egypt

(b) Lebanon

(d) Tunisia

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The Crisis In The Middle East

India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) Project

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: IMEC Project, Various ports mentioned

Mains level: NA

Why in the News?

An Indian inter-ministerial delegation visited the UAE to discuss the operational aspects of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), marking a significant step forward since the signing of the agreement.

About IMEC Project

IMEC is part of the broader Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), which focuses on infrastructure development in economically developing regions.
The MoU for IMEC was formally endorsed on September 10, 2023, during the 2023 G20 New Delhi summit.
Signatories to this agreement: India, United States, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy, and the European Union.
Aim: To integrate Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, enhancing economic cooperation across these regions.
Objectives:
- Improve transportation efficiency, lower costs, and promote economic cohesion among participating nations.
- Generate employment opportunities and reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.
- Facilitate trade and connectivity, thereby reshaping regional integration among Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

Corridor Configuration:

IMEC comprises two primary corridors:

East Corridor: Linking India to the Arabian Gulf.
Northern Corridor: Connecting the Gulf region to Europe.

Key ports integral to the project’s success include:

India: Mundra, Kandla, and Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (Mumbai).
Middle East: Fujairah (UAE), Jebel Ali (Dubai, UAE), Abu Dhabi (UAE), Dammam (Saudi Arabia), and Ras Al Khair (Saudi Arabia).
Israel: Haifa port.
Europe: Piraeus (Greece), Messina (Italy), and Marseille (France).

Additionally, it encompasses various infrastructure components such as railway networks, ship-to-rail connections, road transport routes, electricity cables, hydrogen pipelines, and high-speed data cables.

Significance:

IMEC, upon completion, will establish a dependable and cost-efficient cross-border ship-to-rail transit network, complementing existing maritime and road transport networks.
The IMEC Project holds significant promise in redefining regional trade dynamics and fostering sustainable economic growth and cooperation among the involved countries.

PYQ:

[2018] The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same. (150 Words, 10 Marks)

[2016] ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of:

(a) African Union

(b) Brazil

(d) China

Back2Basics: Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment (PGII)

The PGII was first announced in June 2021 during the G7 (or Group of Seven) summit in the UK.
The G7 countries include the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the European Union (EU).
US President Joe Biden had called it the Build Back Better World (B3W) framework. However, it did not register much progress.
In 2022, during the G7 summit in Germany, the PGII was officially launched as a joint initiative to help fund infrastructure projects in developing countries through public and private investments.
- Objective: To mobilise nearly $600 billion from the G7 by 2027 to invest in critical infrastructure.
- It is essentially in response to the infrastructure projects being undertaken and funded by China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) at a global level.

Present Maritime Routes between India and Europe

Trade Route	Route	Issues	Advantages
Suez Canal Route	Indian Ocean -> Arabian Sea -> Red Sea -> Suez Canal -> Mediterranean Sea -> Europe	High traffic causing congestion. Potential for piracy, especially near the Horn of Africa.	Most efficient and shortest maritime route. Well-established with advanced port facilities.
Cape of Good Hope Route	Indian Ocean -> Arabian Sea -> Indian Ocean (southern tip of Africa) -> Atlantic Ocean -> Europe	Longer transit time compared to the Suez Canal. Higher fuel costs and longer journey duration.	Avoids congestion and security risks of the Suez Canal. Suitable for large vessels unable to transit the Suez Canal.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

India backs Palestine’s bid for full UN membership

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: UN and its membership; Rights and privileges enjoyed by UN Member

Mains level: NA

Why in the news?

India has voted in favour of a UN General Assembly resolution recommending Palestine’s admission as a full member of the United Nations.

Arab push for Palestine’s Membership

The emergency special session was convened by the Arab Group, with the UAE presenting the resolution in support of Palestine’s full membership.
The resolution calls for the Security Council to “reconsider” Palestine’s membership favourably, based on its determination that Palestine is qualified for UN membership.
The resolution received overwhelming support, with 143 votes in favour, including India’s, nine against, and 25 abstentions.
As an observer state, Palestine currently lacks voting rights in the General Assembly and cannot nominate candidates to UN organs.

India’s Stance on Palestine:

In 1988, India recognized the State of Palestine.
In 1996, India opened its Representative Office to the Palestine Authority in Gaza, later relocating it to Ramallah in 2003.

About United Nations

	Details
Background	Resulted from the devastation of World War I and II Highlighted the need for a more effective international body to maintain peace and prevent future conflicts.
Predecessor	The League of Nations, created in 1919 after World War I, aimed at peacekeeping but failed during World War II.
The Atlantic Charter	Issued in August 1941 by President Franklin D. Roosevelt (USA) and Prime Minister Winston Churchill (UK), this document outlined principles for a post-war world and set the stage for the UN’s creation.
Naming	The term “United Nations” was coined by President Roosevelt in 1941 to describe the allied nations opposed to the Axis powers.
Declaration by United Nations	On January 1, 1942, representatives from 26 Allied nations, including India under British colonial rule, signed this declaration in Washington DC, formalizing their alliance and war objectives.
Official Formation	UN was officially established on October 24, 1945, when its Charter was ratified by 51 member countries It included 5 permanent Security Council members: France, Republic of China, Soviet Union, UK, and US.
First General Assembly	The inaugural meeting of the UN General Assembly took place on January 10, 1946.
Core Goals	To maintain international peace and security. To foster friendly relations among nations. To cooperate in solving international problems and in promoting respect for human rights. To be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations in attaining these common ends.
India’s Role	India was a founding member of the United Nations, having signed the initial Declaration alongside 25 other Allied nations during World War II.

Rights and Privileges:

The rights and privileges of member states in the United Nations are designed to ensure that all members can effectively participate in the organization’s activities and benefit from its resources.

PYQ:

[2022] With reference to the “United Nations Credentials Committee”, consider the following statements:

It is a committee set up by the UN Security Council and works under its supervision.
It traditionally meets in March, June and September every year
It assesses the credentials of all UN members before submitting a report to the General Assembly for approval.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 3 only
(b) 1 and 3
(c) 2 and 3
(d) 1 and 2

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The Crisis In The Middle East

[PREMIUM] Conflict Regions in West Asia

World Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Conflict areas in West Asia

Mains level: NA

Why in the news?

The resurgence of West Asian rivalries has been reignited by the ongoing Hamas-Israel War, which commenced on October 7, 2023.
With a backdrop of historical conflicts, including the Iran-Iraq War and Israel’s engagements with Hezbollah and Hamas, the current conflict is escalating tensions in the region.

About West Asia

[A] Political Overview:

Countries:

West Asia comprises 17 countries, including:
- In Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has 6 countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman.
- Middle Eastern countries like Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Palestine, and Yemen.
- Egypt is sometimes included in the definition of West Asia due to its geographical proximity and historical ties.

Geopolitical Dynamics:
- The region is characterized by complex geopolitical dynamics, including conflicts, alliances, and power struggles.
- Ongoing conflicts include the Syrian Civil War, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the Yemeni Civil War, among others.
- Strategic interests of global powers, including the United States, Russia, and China, contribute to the region’s instability.

[B] Physical Features:

Terrain:
- West Asia encompasses varied terrain, including vast deserts like the Rub’ al Khali in Saudi Arabia and the Syrian Desert in Syria and Jordan.
- Mountainous regions include the Zagros Mountains in Iran, the Taurus Mountains in Turkey, and the Anti-Lebanon Mountains along the Lebanon-Syria border.
- Fertile river valleys, such as the Tigris-Euphrates in Iraq and the Nile in Egypt, have historically supported agriculture and civilization.
Climate:
- The region experiences diverse climates:
  - Arid and semi-arid climates prevail in much of the interior, with hot summers and mild winters.
  - Mediterranean climates along the coastal areas, characterized by hot, dry summers and mild, wet winters.
  - Highland climates in mountainous regions, with cooler temperatures and higher precipitation.
Natural Resources:
- West Asia is endowed with abundant natural resources, notably oil and natural gas reserves, concentrated primarily in countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and the Gulf states.
- The region also possesses significant mineral deposits, including phosphates in Jordan, sulfur in Iraq, and metals like copper and iron in various countries.

[C] Physiographical Details:

Biodiversity:
- Despite its predominantly arid climate, West Asia supports diverse ecosystems, including desert, mountain, and coastal habitats.
- Unique species of flora and fauna, adapted to harsh environmental conditions, inhabit the region, including desert mammals like the Arabian oryx and mountain species like the Persian leopard.
Water Resources:
- Water scarcity is a pressing issue in West Asia, exacerbated by population growth, urbanization, and climate change.
- Countries rely on shared river basins, such as the Tigris-Euphrates and the Nile, leading to water disputes and conflicts.
- Desalination plants along the coastlines provide an alternative source of freshwater, particularly in Gulf countries.
Human Geography:
- The region is home to diverse ethnic and religious communities, including Arabs, Kurds, Turks, Persians, Jews, and Christians, among others.
- Urbanization is on the rise, with major cities like Riyadh, Tehran, Istanbul, and Cairo serving as economic, cultural, and political centers.

Flash Points in West Asia

Conflict Areas	Description	Flashpoints
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict	A protracted dispute over territory, borders, and self-determination between Israel and Palestinians.	Gaza Strip: A densely populated coastal enclave with sandy beaches, urban areas, and limited agricultural land. It is approximately 41 kilometers long and 6 kilometers wide. Netzarim Corridor: The Netzarim Corridor is a just under seven-kilometer-long corridor that is set to cut Gaza City from the rest of the enclave, running east to west from the Israeli border south of Nahal Oz to the Mediterranean Sea. Israel has previously bisected the Gaza Strip to create a Buffer Zone. West Bank: Diverse geography including mountainous terrain, fertile valleys, and the Jordan River Valley. It covers an area of approximately 5,655 square kilometers. East Jerusalem: Hilly terrain with historic landmarks and religious sites, including the Old City with its ancient walls, mosques, and churches.
Syrian Civil War	Complex conflict involving multiple factions, resulting in immense humanitarian suffering.	Aleppo: Surrounded by fertile plains and agricultural land, it is one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world. It covers an area of approximately 190 square kilometers. Damascus: Situated in the foothills of the Anti-Lebanon Mountains, it is one of the oldest cities in the Middle East. It spans an area of around 105 square kilometers. Homs: Located along the Orontes River, it is an important industrial center with a history dating back to ancient times. It has an area of about 165 square kilometers. Idlib: Mix of agricultural plains, hills, and urban centers, covering an area of approximately 6,097 square kilometers.
Iraqi Conflict	Various conflicts including the Iraq War, sectarian violence, insurgency, and fight against ISIS.	Baghdad: Flat terrain surrounded by fertile agricultural land, situated on the Tigris River. It covers an area of around 204 square kilometers. Mosul: Surrounded by plains, historic landmarks, and the Tigris River, it is one of Iraq’s largest cities. It spans an area of approximately 370 square kilometers. Fallujah: In the Euphrates River valley with arid landscapes and urban areas, it is strategically located near major highways. It covers an area of about 139 square kilometers. Kirkuk: Oil-rich region with diverse ethnic populations and mountainous terrain, it covers an area of approximately 9,679 square kilometers.
Yemeni Civil War	Involves the Yemeni government, Houthi rebels, and other factions, leading to a dire humanitarian crisis.	Sana’a: Surrounded by mountains and valleys in the Yemeni Highlands, it is one of the highest capital cities in the world. It covers an area of approximately 73 square kilometers. Aden: Coastal city with a strategic port and urban areas, located on the Gulf of Aden. It spans an area of around 50 square kilometers. Hodeidah: Major port city with coastal plains, mountains, and urban areas, situated on the Red Sea coast. It covers an area of about 192 square kilometers.
Lebanese-Israeli Tensions	Sporadic clashes and occasional escalation over territorial disputes and Hezbollah’s presence.	Southern Lebanon: Rugged terrain with mountains, fertile valleys, and coastal plains along the Mediterranean Sea. It covers an area of approximately 929 square kilometers.
Kurdish-Turkish Conflict	Involves the Turkish government and Kurdish separatist groups, focusing on Kurdish autonomy.	Southeastern Turkey: Mountain ranges, plateaus, fertile river valleys, and urban areas, covering an area of approximately 190,534 square kilometers. Northern Iraq: Zagros Mountains, valleys, rivers, and urban centers, with an area of about 198,956 square kilometers.
Iranian-Israeli Tensions	Fueled by Iran’s support to militant groups and its nuclear program, leading to regional security concerns.	Golan Heights: Plateau region with rocky slopes, volcanic hills, fertile agricultural land, and urban settlements. It spans an area of approximately 1,800 square kilometers. Southern Lebanon: Rugged terrain with valleys, plains, and urban areas, covering an area of about 929 square kilometers.
Gulf States Tensions	Rivalries among Gulf states are driven by ideological differences, political alliances, and economic interests.	Qatar: Peninsula with desert terrain, low-lying coastal areas, and urban development, covering an area of approximately 11,586 square kilometers. Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia: Desert landscapes, oasis areas, oil fields, and urban centers, with an area of about 672,522 square kilometers.

PYQ:

[2015] Which one of the following countries of South-West Asia does not open out to the Mediterranean Sea?

(a) Syria

(b) Jordan

(d) Israel

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Tensions grow in West Asia, a heavily militarised region

Explained IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Map of West Asia

Mains level: Reason behind the west Asia is a heavily militarised region

Why in the news?

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s ‘Trends in International Arms Transfers 2023’, four of the top 10 largest importers of arms last year were from West Asia, with the U.S. being the main supplier

SIPRI Report: Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2023

India’s Arms Imports: Increased by 4.7% compared to 2014-18.
European Arms Imports: Saw a staggering 94% increase between 2014-18 and 2019-23, likely influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Russia-India Arms Trade: Russia remained India’s largest arms supplier, accounting for 36% of total imports.
Top Global Importers: India, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar emerged as the top three importers globally.
Ukraine’s Arms Imports: Became the fourth largest arms importer during the specified period.
China-Pakistan Arms Trade: Pakistan, the fifth largest arms importer, obtained 82% of its arms from China.
France’s Arms Exports: Emerged as the world’s second-largest arms supplier, after the United States.
French Arms Exports to India: India was highlighted as the largest single recipient of French arms exports.

West Asia has largest expenditure in Defence as per GDP %

Reason behind the west Asia is heavily militarised region:

Regional Conflicts and Tensions: The region is characterized by ongoing conflicts and tensions, such as those in Yemen and Syria, leading countries to seek advanced weaponry to address security challenges
Oil Boom: The oil boom in West Asia has led to increased military spending as countries seek to protect their oil resources and maintain regional stability
Internal Factors: The presence of Western arms and personnel in some Persian Gulf countries has contributed to internal resurgences, leading states to invest in military capabilities for self-defense
Diversification of Arms Suppliers: West Asian states have adopted the principle of diversifying sources of arms supply, leading to a broader range of arms imports from various suppliers globally
Client-Supplier Relationship: The relationship between client states and arms suppliers is often favorable to the recipient, with the recipient receiving the arms they wish and the supplier bowing to their demands
Regional Disputes and Border Skirmishes: Border disputes, threats, and wars have made it imperative for West Asian states to resort to modern and efficient national defense systems like conflict between Iran and Israel

Conclusion:

Encourage diplomatic efforts to resolve regional conflicts and tensions through dialogue and negotiation, aiming to reduce the need for excessive military spending. Advocate for the establishment of regional arms control agreements to limit the proliferation of weapons and promote stability in the West Asia region.

Mains PYQ

Q How will I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics?

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Premium – Conflict Areas of African Continent

World Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Locations mentioned in the newscard

Mains level: NA

Why in the News?

The places discussed in this article are pertinent to conflict zones either due to Geopolitical conflicts or Climate change impacts.

Political and Ethnic Conflicts:

Darfur Region, Sudan:
- The Darfur region constitutes Western Sudan, present-Eastern Chad, and the present-Northern part of the Central African Republic Region.
- This conflict involves clashes between government forces and paramilitary groups, resulting in widespread violence and displacement, particularly in regions like Darfur.
- Darfur has experienced conflict for years, with ethnic tensions and government-rebel clashes leading to violence and displacement.
- The conflict has been characterized by allegations of ethnic cleansing and human rights abuses.

Somalia:
- The Conflict zone of Somalia is situated in the South-Eastern part (Mogadishu).
- Al Shabaab is an Islamist militant group that has been engaged in a prolonged insurgency against the Somali government.
- The conflict has led to widespread violence, including attacks on civilians, and has contributed to significant displacement within Somalia

Nigeria:
- Groups like Boko Haram and its offshoot, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), have carried out attacks, including suicide bombings and kidnappings, targeting civilians and security forces.
- This conflict has led to widespread displacement (Due to infringements of Human rights), particularly in northeastern Nigeria.
- Nigeria is traversed by several major rivers, including the Niger River and the Benue River.
- The Niger River flows from southeastern Guinea through Mali, Niger, Benin, and Nigeria. It is the third-longest river in Africa behind the Nile and the Congo.
- Niger River tributaries include the Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, and Bani Rivers.

Tigray, Ethiopia:
- The conflict in Tigray erupted between regional forces and the Ethiopian government in late 2020, leading to widespread violence, displacement, and allegations of human rights abuses.
- Ethiopia has experienced internal conflicts fueled by ethnic divisions and political grievances, leading to sporadic violence and displacement in various regions.
- The region is part of the Nile River Basin.

Resource-based Conflicts (Climate Change Impact):

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC):
- The DRC has been plagued by multiple armed groups operating in different regions, often vying for control over territory and resources.
- The M23 rebel group is one of several militias involved in the conflict, leading to displacement and humanitarian crises.
- The DRC is home to the Congo River, one of the largest rivers in Africa.
- The Congo River drains a total watershed area of 3,690,750km 2, covering all of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as well as parts of Congo-Brazzaville, Cameroon, the Central African Republic (CAR), Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia and Angola.
Burkina Faso:
- Burkina Faso (landlocked in West Africa) has experienced a rise in violence perpetrated by groups affiliated with al Qaeda and the Islamic State, leading to displacement and insecurity, especially in the northern regions.
- This conflict is often seen as a spillover from instability in neighboring Mali.
- This region lies on the Prime Meridian.
- As it is landlocked, it does not have any significant rivers or lakes within its territory. However, it is part of the Volta River Basin, which includes rivers like the Black Volta and the White Volta.

Sahel Region:
- The Sahel is a 3,860-km transitional belt stretching between the Sahara Desert and sub-Saharan Africa, extending from Senegal to Eritrea. It consists of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Eritrea, and a portion of southern Algeria.
- Climate: Characterized by semi-arid conditions and features barren landscapes, making it susceptible to desertification.
- It serves as a historical and cultural crossroads, where Arabic, Islamic, and nomadic cultures from the north intersect with indigenous and traditional cultures from the south.
- The region faces numerous challenges, including ethno-religious tensions, political instability, widespread poverty, natural disasters, and the proliferation of criminal and political movements.
- Its vast, ungoverned spaces make it a hotspot for various illicit activities.

Notable water bodies in the Sahel region:
- Niger River: It is a major waterway that traverses through countries such as Mali, Niger, and Nigeria, providing water for irrigation, transportation, and fishing.
- Senegal River: The Senegal River forms part of the northern border of Senegal and Mauritania. It provides water for agriculture, supports ecosystems, and is used for transportation and hydropower generation.
- Bani River: A tributary of the Niger River, the Bani River flows through Mali during the rainy season, supporting agriculture and wildlife in the region.
- Koumoue River: This river, located in Burkina Faso, is a tributary of the Niger River and plays a crucial role in providing water for agricultural activities in the region.
- Logone River: The Logone River, flowing through Chad and Cameroon, is an important water source for communities living along its banks, supporting agriculture and providing habitats for wildlife.
- Mare aux Hippopotames: This seasonal lake, located in Niger, fills with water during the rainy season and serves as an essential habitat for wildlife, including hippos and migratory birds.
- Lake Chad: Although Lake Chad has significantly diminished in size over the years due to factors such as climate change, overuse of water resources, and population growth, it remains an important water body for countries like Chad, Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon.

Afar Triangle:
- The Afar Triangle, also known as the Afar Depression or Afar Rift, is a geological depression in the Horn of Africa. It encompasses parts of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- It is said to be world’s Sixth Ocean in making.
- It is located at the tri-junction of the African, Arabian, and Somali tectonic plates, making it one of the most geologically active regions on Earth.
- Border disputes between countries have occasionally involved the Afar region, particularly along the border areas.

Previous Year Questions:

[2013] Which one of the following pairs is correctly matched?

Geographical Feature	Region
(a) Abyssinian Plateau	Arabia
(b) Atlas Mountains	North-Western Africa
(c) Guiana Highlands	South-Western Africa
(d) Okavango Basin	Patagonia

[2020] Consider the following pairs:

Rivers	Flows into
1. Mekong	Andaman Sea
2. Thames	Irish Sea
3. Volga	Caspian Sea
4. Zambezi	Indian Ocean

Which of the pairs given above is/are correctly matched?

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 4 only

[2022] The term “Levant” often heard in the news roughly corresponds to which of the following regions?

(a) Region along the eastern Mediterranean shores

(b) Region along North African shores stretching from Egypt to Morocco

(d) The entire coastal areas of Mediterranean Sean

[2022] Consider the following pairs:

Region often mentioned, in the news

Country

1. Anatolia

2. Amhara

3. Cabo Delgado

4. Catalonia

Turkey

Ethiopia

Spain

Italy

How many pairs given above are correctly matched?

(a) Only one pair

(b) Only two pairs

(d) All four pairs

[2023] Consider the following pairs:

	Area of conflict mentioned in news	Country where it is located
1.	Donbas	Syria
2.	Kachin	Ethiopia
3.	Tigray	North Yemen

How many of the above pairs are correctly matched?

a) Only one

b) Only two

c) All three

d) None

[2023] Consider the following pairs:

	Regions often mentioned in News	Reason for being in News
1.	North Kivu and Ituri	War between Armenia and Azerbaijan
2.	Nagorno-Karabakh	Insurgency in Mozambique
3.	Kherson and Zaporizhzhia	Dispute between Israel and Lebanon

How many of the above pairs are correctly matched?

(a) Only one

(b) Only two

(d) None

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Israel, a two-state solution, some recent perceptions

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Why Israel position is so strong in conflict?

Why in the news?

Writings and statements from Israel give us an understanding of what “a Jewish national home” means and the ongoing conflict it involves.

Historical origins and evolution of the concept of a Jewish national home

Historical and Religious Context: The concept of a Promised Land for the Jewish people dates back to biblical times, with references in the Hebrew Bible (Old Testament) to the land of Canaan as a homeland promised to the descendants of Abraham. The idea of returning to this ancestral homeland remained significant in Jewish religious and cultural traditions throughout centuries of diaspora.
Zionism: The modern movement for Jewish nationalism, known as Zionism, gained momentum in the late 19th century. Zionist thinkers and leaders, such as Theodor Herzl, envisioned the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine.
Theodor Herzl and the First Zionist Congress: The publication of Herzl’s book “Der Judenstaat” (“The Jewish State”) in 1896 is often considered the starting point of modern political Zionism.
British Mandate for Palestine: During World War I, the British government issued the Balfour Declaration in 1917, expressing support for the establishment of a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine.
Settlement and Immigration: Jewish immigration to Palestine increased significantly during the early 20th century, as Jewish communities sought to establish settlements and build infrastructure in the region.
United Nations Partition Plan: In 1947, the United Nations proposed a partition plan for Palestine, which would have divided the territory into separate Jewish and Arab states, along with an internationalized Jerusalem. While Jewish leaders accepted the plan, Arab leaders rejected it, leading to the Arab-Israeli War of 1948 and the establishment of the State of Israel.

Continue Struggle after Arab-Israeli War 1948

International Response and Recognition after 1967 war: UN Security Council resolutions 242 (1967) and 338 (1973) addressed the aftermath of the 1967 war. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was recognized by the Arab League and the UN General Assembly as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. The Arab League Declaration/Initiative of 2002 and the Palestinian Non-Paper outlined visions for a solution, including reference to the 1967 Armistice Line as a border.
Annexation of West Bank Settlements: In 2018, Israel’s ruling Likud Party unanimously endorsed a resolution calling for the annexation of West Bank settlements, indicating a hardline stance on territorial claims.

Why Israel’s position is so strong in conflict?

Military Might: The military success of Israel in the 1967 war shifted the dynamics of the Arab-Israeli conflict, convincing Arab states that they could not achieve victory through military means. However, it did not lead to a recommendation for a political settlement based on compromise.
Madrid Conference of 1991: The Madrid Conference was a significant event in the peace process, though the phrase “territories for peace” was not explicitly mentioned in the invitation letters. It marked a diplomatic effort to address the conflict.
American Support : The United States has provided unprecedented support to Israel, both diplomatically and militarily.And Israel’s conduct and efforts to shape the post-war situation have been growing.

Conclusion: The idea of a Jewish national home emerged from historical and religious roots, gained momentum through Zionism, and was furthered by international recognition. Resolution requires diplomacy, acknowledgment of historical grievances, and genuine efforts towards mutual understanding and compromise to stabalise the situation.

Mains PYQ

Q “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss (UPSC IAS/2018)

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Where India’s trade with Israel and Iran stands, and whether regional tensions could impact it

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: How could Middle East tensions impact the Indian economy?

Why in the news?

Iran’s attack on Israel earlier this week has sparked tensions in the Middle East and beyond. India, which has friendly ties with both the countries, has expressed “serious concerns” about escalation of hostilities.

India-Israel trade has doubled in the last five years

India established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992. Since then, trade between two countries has been rising significantly, from around $200 million in 1992 (comprising primarily of diamonds), to $10.7 billion (excluding defence) in the Financial Year 2022-23.

What are the main components of India’s trade with Israel?

Based on India’s 8-digit Harmonized System code, under which trade items are classified, the most valued items exported by India to Israel included diesel, diamonds, aviation turbine fuel, radar apparatus, Basmati rice, T-shirts, and wheat.

Value of India-Iran trade came down in the last five years

India’s trade with Iran has seen a contraction in recent years, before an uptick in the FY 2022-23. It increased by 21.77 per cent — from $1.94 billion in 2021-22 to $2.33 billion in 2022-23.

Israel and Iran do not have significant FDI in India

Israel’s FDI in India: Israel’s contribution to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India is relatively low, accounting for just 0.4% of the total FDI inflows between April 2000 and December 2023. FDI from Israel to India amounted to $288 million during this period.
Indian Investment in Israel: Conversely, Indian firms have invested more in Israel, with cumulative Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) reaching around US$ 383 million from April 2000 to May 2023.
India’s Investment in Iran: India is involved in developing the first phase of the Shahid Beheshti Port at Chabahar in Iran. This initiative aims to enhance India’s connectivity and trade relations with the Middle East and Central Asia.

How could Middle East tensions impact the Indian economy?

Impact on Trade Routes: Tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Red Sea region, could disrupt crucial trade routes connecting Europe and Asia. Roughly 12 percent of global trade depends on this route, potentially affecting India’s trade.
Shipping Disruptions: Yemen-based militants, known as the Houthis, have targeted ships passing through the Red Sea since November 2023, leading to shipping disruptions. This could exacerbate India’s trade problems.
Stability Concerns in West Asia: The conflict between Iran and Israel adds to the instability in West Asia, potentially delaying projects like the Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
Impact on Petroleum Prices: While the ongoing conflict may not significantly disrupt crude oil and gas production, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could lead to higher oil and gas prices. However, the impact on Indian consumers may be minimal as the government could offset price increases by reducing taxes.

Conclusion: India’s friendly ties with both Israel and Iran provide an opportunity for diplomatic engagement to mitigate the escalation of hostilities in the region. By actively participating in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and promote dialogue, India can contribute to regional stability and safeguard its economic interests.

Mains PYQ

Q There arose a serious challenge to the Democratic State System between the two World Wars.” Evaluate the statement. (UPSC IAS/2021)

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Explained: A short history of Iran-Israel ties and why they soured after 1979

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Iran and Israel

Mains level: Middle East countries; Iran and Israel

Why in the news?

Iran has said that its April 12 attacks on Israel were in response to Israeli war jets targeting an Iranian consulate in Syria earlier this month, leading to the death of its senior military commanders.

Context:

- The Iran-Israel relationship has not always been as fraught as it is today. Iran was one of the first countries in the region to recognise Israel after its formation in 1948. It was only after 1979 that their diplomatic ties ended.

Iran–Israel Relations: This can be studied through four major phases:

- Ambivalent (1947-1953);
- Friendly (1953-1979);
- Worsening (1979-1990);
- Open Hostility (1991-present);

1953 to 1979 Iran–Israel Relations:

From 1953 to 1979, during the rule of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran, the relationship between Iran and Israel was relatively friendly.
Iran recognized Israel as a sovereign state in 1950, making it the second Muslim-majority country to do so after Turkey.
Despite occasional tensions, Iran and Israel engaged in significant economic, political, and military cooperation during this period. This cooperation extended to various sectors and included joint projects.
Iran supported Israel during conflicts with Arab nations, indicating a level of alignment in their geopolitical interests.
One notable joint project between Iran and Israel was the construction of the Trans-Israel oil pipeline, showcasing the depth of their cooperation, particularly in the economic sphere.

Post 1979 Iran–Israel Relations:

After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran became a religious state, with a significant shift in its foreign policy and worldview.
Iran, under the new regime, viewed Israel as an occupier of Palestinian land and referred to it as “Little Satan.” This represented a significant departure from the previous regime’s stance.
Iran, under Ayatollah Khomeini, also labeled the United States as the “Great Satan” and saw both Israel and the US as interfering in the region’s affairs.
Iran sought to expand its influence in the region, challenging traditional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, both of which were US allies.
Initially at odds with pan-Arabism championed by leaders like Gamal Abdel Nasser, Iran’s relations with Arab countries, such as Egypt, warmed after Nasser died in 1970.
The signing of an accord between Iran and Iraq in 1975, which included Iran’s agreement to cease support for Kurdish-Iraqi separatists, led to a temporary easing of hostility between the two nations.
These shifts in Iran’s foreign policy and its improved relations with neighboring countries, as well as Iraq, led to a decrease in Israel’s strategic importance to Iran.

India’s Stance:

India’s Neutral Stance: India has adopted a neutral stance on the conflict between Iran and Israel, emphasizing the importance of peace and stability in the region.
Strategic Partnership with Israel: Despite its neutral stance, India maintains a strategic partnership with Israel, characterized by significant military and economic ties, including a substantial trade volume of around $7.5 billion.
Cultural and Linguistic Ties with Iran: India also has cultural and linguistic ties with Iran, along with strategic economic interests, such as the Chabahar port project, which connects India to Central Asia through Iran.
Focus on Citizen Safety: India’s primary focus amidst the escalating conflict is ensuring the safety and well-being of its citizens, with approximately 10,000 Indian nationals in Iran and an additional 18,000 in Israel.

Conclusion: Iran-Israel ties, once friendly, soured post-1979 due to Iran’s religious revolution. India maintains neutrality, balancing strategic partnerships with both nations while prioritizing citizen safety amid escalating tensions.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

ICJ’s Interim Ruling on Gaza Genocide Case

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: International Court of Justice (ICJ)

Mains level: NA

gaza icj

Introduction

The recent interim ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding South Africa’s case against Israel has sparked global attention.
While the court did not pass judgment on the core issue of whether Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, it did issue six provisional measures.

ICJ’s Interim Ruling: Six Provisional Measures Ordered

Prevention of Genocidal Acts: A 15:2 majority mandated that Israel take all necessary steps to prevent acts defined under Article 2 of the Genocide Convention, encompassing actions with the intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.
Immediate Military Restraint: Israel was directed to prevent its military from committing any genocidal acts “with immediate effect.”
Incitement to Genocide: Sixteen out of 17 judges ruled that Israel must prevent and punish direct and public incitement to commit genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Humanitarian Assistance: The court instructed Israel to provide humanitarian aid and basic services to Palestinians in Gaza, recognizing them as a protected group under the Genocide Convention.
Preservation of Evidence: Israel was entrusted with preserving evidence related to alleged acts under the Genocide Convention in Gaza.
Reporting Requirement: By a 15:2 majority, Israel was asked to submit a report on measures taken to implement the ruling within one month.

Decision on Jurisdiction

Jurisdiction Confirmed: The World Court clarified its jurisdiction, stating that there exists a prima facie dispute between the parties concerning the application of the Genocide Convention.
Article 9 of Genocide Convention: Referring to Article 9, the court emphasized that South Africa’s concerns and Israel’s dismissal indicated a genuine dispute.

Comments on Israel’s Actions in Gaza

Genocidal Acts: The court suggested that “at least some” of Israel’s acts and omissions may fall within the contours of the Genocide Convention.
Impact of Military Operation: Israel’s large-scale military operation in Gaza, causing civilian casualties and displacement, was highlighted.
Statements by Israeli Officials: The court pointed to concerning statements by senior Israeli officials, including orders for a “complete siege” of Gaza and dehumanizing remarks about troops.
Humanitarian Concerns: Expressing deep concern, the court warned of a potential deterioration in the humanitarian situation before the final judgment.

No Call for Ceasefire

Court’s Limitations: The ICJ refrained from ordering a ceasefire, with legal experts explaining that such an order could render Israel defenseless and fall outside the court’s purview.
International Impact: While the court’s rulings are legally binding, enforcement is lacking. However, its opinions carry weight with the UN and other international institutions.

Funding Pause for UNRWA: Allegations and Implications

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: UNRWA

Mains level: Not Much

unrwa

Introduction

Britain, Italy, and Finland have recently halted funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) amid allegations of its staff’s involvement in the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel.

About UNRWA

UNRWA was established to aid Palestinian refugees displaced during the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation.
It provides education, health, and aid services to Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon.
It operates schools, health clinics, and infrastructure projects for millions of Palestinians across the Middle East.

Israel’s Criticisms

Israel accuses UNRWA of tolerating or collaborating with Hamas and perpetuating the Palestinian refugee crisis.
It alleges misuse of aid by militant groups and teaching anti-Israel sentiments in UNRWA schools.

UNRWA’s Response

It denied allegations, takes swift action against accused employees, and asserts no links to militant groups.
It sought to undertake an external review to address accusations and determine political motivations.

Impact of Funding Cuts

The U.S., UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, and Finland suspend aid.
These nations contribute nearly 60% of UNRWA’s budget in 2022, impacting day-to-day operations.
Humanitarian crisis deepens in Gaza, with one in four facing starvation, and aid operations hampered by the ongoing conflict.

Conclusion

The pause in funding for UNRWA raises concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the potential long-term impact on the region’s stability.
The accusations against UNRWA and the subsequent funding cuts underscore the complex challenges faced in delivering aid amid geopolitical tensions.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Why are Conflicts spreading in West Asia?

World Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: West Asia

Mains level: Read the attached story

west asia

Introduction

What initially began as a localized conflict between Israel and Hamas has rapidly spiralled into a regional security crisis, casting a shadow of uncertainty and instability over West Asia.
This evolving crisis involves a complex web of state and non-state actors, each with its own objectives and strategies, making it a highly volatile and unpredictable situation.

Escalation beyond Borders

As Israel launched its military campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas’s cross-border attacks, concerns grew that the conflict could spill over beyond the borders of Palestine. The involvement of various actors has further complicated the situation:

Hezbollah’s Solidarity: Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia group backed by Iran, fired rockets at Israeli forces in solidarity with the Palestinians. This action marked an extension of the conflict beyond the immediate theatre of operations.
Exchange of Fire: Israel and Hezbollah engaged in multiple exchanges of fire, with both sides exercising restraint to prevent a full-scale war. Nevertheless, these incidents escalated regional tensions.
Iran-Backed Militias: Iran, a key supporter of non-state actors in the region, provided backing to groups such as Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. This support has contributed to the widening of the crisis.
Houthi Disruptions: In a bid to express solidarity with the Palestinians, Houthi rebels in Yemen began targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Controlling significant portions of Yemen, including the Red Sea coast, the Houthis disrupted maritime traffic in a crucial international waterway.

Global Ramifications

The crisis in West Asia has not remained confined to the region; it has global implications:

U.S. Airstrikes in Yemen: The United States, in support of Israel’s actions, conducted airstrikes in Yemen, directly involving itself in the regional conflict. These airstrikes added a new dimension to the crisis.
Hashad al-Shabi’s Escalation: The Shia Mobilisation Forces of Iraq and Syria, backed by Iran, launched over a hundred attacks against U.S. troops stationed in these countries. These attacks were seen as retaliation against U.S. support for Israel.
Spread of Instability: As instability spread across the region, extremist groups, including the Islamic State, sought to exploit the situation. Iraq and Syria, in particular, remained vulnerable to internal and external challenges.
Cross-Border Retaliation: In response to Iran’s actions, Pakistan carried out airstrikes in Iranian territory, further escalating tensions in the region.

Key Players and Their Objectives

Understanding the crisis requires an examination of the key players and their objectives:

Israel’s Aims: Israel’s primary objectives include dismantling Hamas and securing the release of hostages held by the group. Israel enjoys unwavering support from the United States in pursuing these goals.
Iran’s Backing: Iran plays a central role as the primary supporter of various anti-Israel non-state actors in West Asia, offering support to groups such as Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Shia militias.
U.S. Interests: The United States, with a significant military presence in the region, seeks to ensure Israel’s security, protect American troops and assets, and maintain the U.S.-led order in West Asia.

Implications for Regional Security

The crisis in West Asia has ushered in a period of heightened insecurity and instability:

Widespread Security Crisis: Unlike previous conflicts that often involved nation-states or specific non-state actors, this crisis encompasses a broader range of powerful states and non-state actors, creating a highly volatile environment.
Disruption of the Old Order: The crisis has exposed the fragility of the old U.S.-led order in the region. Iran-backed proxies directly target Israeli and American positions, while Iran flexes its military muscle through cross-border attacks.

Looking Ahead

As the crisis continues to unfold, several key factors warrant consideration:

No Clear Resolution: With more than 100 days of conflict, Israel’s objectives in Gaza remain unfulfilled, and there is no apparent path to a resolution. The ongoing war fuels retaliatory attacks by Hezbollah and Houthis.
Effectiveness of U.S. Airstrikes: U.S. airstrikes against various groups have not proven effective in deterring them from launching new attacks. The region remains volatile.
Potential for Further Instability: The ongoing instability in West Asia creates opportunities for extremist groups, including the Islamic State, to exploit the situation. Iraq and Syria remain particularly susceptible to internal and external challenges.
Changing U.S. Role: Historically, the United States played a dominant role in the region, but it now appears more as a disruptor than a guarantor of peace and stability. Restoring stability and ending the war present significant challenges.
A Glimmer of Hope: Amid the ongoing crisis, a positive development is the maintenance of the Saudi-Iran détente and the Saudi-Houthi peace, providing a ray of hope amidst the turmoil.

Conclusion

The escalating regional crisis in West Asia underscores the intricate interplay of state and non-state actors in a highly volatile environment.
As the situation continues to evolve, its implications for regional stability and global security remain a subject of concern and vigilance.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Houthi Rebels and Regional Dynamics

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Houthi Rebels

Mains level: Read the attached story

Houthi Rebels

Introduction

The United States and the United Kingdom have initiated military strikes against Houthi groups in Yemen on January 11.
This action is a response to the Houthis’ continued aggression towards maritime vessels in the Red Sea, a crucial global trade route.

Background of the Conflict

Houthi Attacks on Shipping: Since November 2023, Houthi forces have targeted ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, disrupting one of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes.
Israeli-Hamas Conflict: The Houthis’ actions are in response to the Israeli military’s bombardment of Gaza following an attack by Hamas on October 7, which resulted in significant casualties.

Houthi Group and Regional Dynamics

Who Are the Houthis?: The Houthis are a Shia militant group engaged in the civil war in Yemen, controlling significant parts of the country, including the capital Sana’a.
Regional Rivalries: The conflict reflects long-standing regional rivalries, with Iran backing the Houthis and Saudi Arabia supporting the Yemeni government. The Houthis’ involvement in the Israel-Hamas war is also seen as part of these broader regional dynamics.

Concerns for Global Trade

Impact on World Trade: Approximately 12% of global trade passes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, making the security of this route critical.
Alternative Routes: Due to safety concerns, some ships have been rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to increased transit times and fuel costs.

Implications for the Region

Operation Prosperity Guardian: Launched by the US, this coalition aims to ensure maritime security in the region, but partner countries have shown reluctance to contribute significantly.
Risks of Wider Conflict: There are concerns about the conflict spreading beyond Israel and Gaza, with the potential for unpredictable outcomes in the Middle East.
Impact on Yemeni Peace Negotiations: The strikes may affect ongoing peace negotiations in Yemen, mediated by Oman and the United Nations.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Red Sea Crisis: Impact on Global and Indian Trade

Explained | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Red Sea

Mains level: Read the attached story

red sea

Introduction

Houthi Militia Attacks: Since November, attacks by the Houthi militia of Yemen have rendered the Red Sea, a crucial marine route via the Suez Canal, unsafe for cargo ships.
Alternative Route: This has led to a significant rerouting of cargo, with ships now taking the longer Cape of Good Hope route, affecting global trade and increasing costs.

About the Red Sea

	Details
Location	Between Africa (Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti) and Asia (Saudi Arabia, Yemen).
Connection	Connects to the Indian Ocean via the Bab el Mandeb strait and the Gulf of Aden.
Length	Approximately 2,250 km long.
Width	Varies from 355 km at its widest point to 20 km at the Strait of Tiran.
Maximum Depth	About 7,254 feet (2,211 m) in the central median trench.
Unique Features	– One of the world’s saltiest bodies of water. – Notable for its rich ecosystem, including extensive coral reefs.
Climate	Generally hot and arid; surrounding desert and high evaporation rates contribute to its high salinity.
Economic Importance	Major shipping route; oil-rich region with significant petroleum deposits on the sea’s borders.

Impact on Indian Trade

red sea

Shift in Shipping Routes: Following the attacks, about 90% of India’s western hemisphere cargo is being rerouted through the Cape of Good Hope.
Contractual Implications: The impact varies based on the type of buyer-seller contract, with some consignments being held up due to increased freight costs.
Freight Cost Surge: Freight costs have risen significantly, by up to six-fold in some cases, affecting all consignments, especially low-value, high-volume cargo and perishables.

Implications for India’s Imports

Increased Import Costs: The longer transit time and crisis could lead to costlier imports and necessitate better inventory management.
Effect on Fuel Prices: The crisis might impact plans to reduce fuel prices in India, given the country’s high dependence on crude oil and petroleum product imports.
Tanker Market Dynamics: Despite increased freight rates for affected routes, there hasn’t been a widespread rerouting of tankers.

Global and Indian Response

UN and US Stance: The UN condemned the Houthi attacks, and the US is seeking more support for ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ to ensure safe sea lanes.
India’s Monitoring: The Indian government is closely observing the situation, with the Commerce Secretary discussing potential impacts with officials and trade bodies.

Sector-Specific Impact

Commodities Most Affected: Sectors like chemicals, plastics, and petrochemicals are severely impacted due to their inability to absorb freight hikes.
Alternatives for High-Value Goods: For high-value, low-volume commodities, airlifting is an option, but most affected goods are large in volume.

Conclusion

Continued Uncertainty: The situation in the Red Sea presents ongoing challenges for global and Indian trade, with no immediate resolution in sight.
Adaptation and Monitoring: Businesses and governments are adapting to these changes, with a focus on monitoring developments and mitigating impacts.
Long-Term Implications: The crisis underscores the vulnerability of global trade routes to geopolitical conflicts and the need for diversified shipping strategies.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Genocide Convention invoked in Israel-Palestinian War

IOCR Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Genocide Convention, 1948

Mains level: Not Much

Central Idea

South Africa has petitioned the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to declare Israel in breach of the 1948 Genocide Convention.

Genocide Convention, 1948

	Details
Full Name	Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide
Adoption Date	December 9, 1948
Primary Aim	To prevent and punish the crime of genocide
Definition of Genocide	Acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group
Key Provisions	Includes killing or causing harm to members of a group, deliberately inflicting destructive conditions, imposing measures to prevent births, and forcibly transferring children
Punishable Acts	Genocide, conspiracy, incitement, attempt, and complicity in genocide
Implementation and Enforcement	States must enact legislation to give effect to the Convention’s provisions and provide penalties for perpetrators; Genocide recognized as a crime under international law
Historical Context	Created post-Holocaust and World War II as a global commitment against atrocities
Legal Framework Impact	Established legal basis for defining and prosecuting genocide, influencing international criminal law
India’s Involvement	Ratified by India on August 27, 1959; Principles incorporated into India’s domestic legal system

South Africa’s Stance and Actions

Preventive Obligation: Following its application to the ICJ, South Africa stated its obligation to prevent genocide, seeking urgent provisional measures to halt violence in Gaza.
Israel’s Response: Israel has strongly condemned South Africa’s accusations, terming them as “blood libel.”
Potential Impact of ICJ Ruling: Even if the ICJ issues provisional measures, Israel, like Russia in the Ukraine case, may choose to ignore them.

Historical Roots of South Africa’s Position

Longstanding Criticism of Israel: South Africa has a history of criticizing Israel, including suspending diplomatic relations and expressing solidarity with Palestine.
Colonialism and Empathy for Palestine: South Africa’s own history of colonialism and apartheid has fostered empathy towards the Palestinian cause.
Influential Figures: Leaders like Nelson Mandela have historically supported Palestinian rights.
Resistance to Western Influence: South Africa’s stance is partly influenced by a desire to resist Western-dominated worldviews, evident in its approach to global issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Economic and Political Considerations

Trade Relations with Israel: Despite being Israel’s largest African trading partner, South Africa has maintained its support for Palestine.
Shift in African Nations’ Stance: While many African countries have softened their stance towards Israel, South Africa remains steadfast due to the ANC’s anti-discrimination roots and resistance to Western hegemony.

Conclusion

Balancing Trade and Ideology: South Africa’s actions reflect a complex interplay of historical empathy, political ideology, and economic considerations in its foreign policy.
Global Implications: This move at the ICJ underscores the ongoing tensions in international relations, particularly in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and broader geopolitical dynamics.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

In news: Mediterranean Sea

India Mapping World Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2:

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Mediterranean Sea

Mains level: NA

Central Idea

Iranian Revolutionary Guards has warned that the Mediterranean Sea could be closed if the US and its allies continued to commit “crimes” in Gaza.

About Mediterranean Sea

	Details
Location	Between Europe, Africa, and Asia
Size	Approximately 2.5 million square kilometers
Depth	Average depth 1,500 meters ; Calypso Deep in the Ionian Sea, over 5,000 meters deep
Climate	Predominantly Mediterranean climate with hot, dry summers and mild, wet winters
Bordering Countries	Europe: Spain, France, Monaco, Italy, Malta, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Greece, Cyprus, Turkey Asia: Turkey, Cyprus, Syria, Lebanon, Israel Africa: Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco
Major Water Bodies Connected	Connected to the Atlantic Ocean by the Strait of Gibraltar; links to the Black Sea via the Dardanelles Strait
Islands and Archipelagos	Includes several islands and archipelagos like Sicily, Sardinia, Corsica, Cyprus, and the Balearic Islands

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Bab El-Mandeb: A Strategic Choke Point

Prelims Only World Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Bab El-Mandeb

Mains level: Read the attached story

Bab El-Mandeb

Central Idea

The war between Israel and Hamas in October raised concerns about Hezbollah’s involvement, but the focus shifted when the Houthis in Yemen expanded the conflict to the Red Sea.
Despite tensions, Hezbollah and Israel avoided full-scale war, with Israel concentrating on Gaza.

Houthi Involvement and Shift in Tactics

Initial Actions: The Houthis, aligned with Iran, initially targeted Israel in solidarity with Palestinians, using drones and missiles, which were intercepted.
Change in Strategy: Later, they shifted focus to attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea, threatening global shipping routes.

Understanding the Houthis

Background: The Houthis, known formally as Ansar Allah, are a Shia militia group in Yemen, named after their late leaders Badr al-Din al-Houthi and Hussein al-Houthi.
Iranian Support: They receive direct support from Iran and have significant military capabilities, including drones and ballistic missiles.

Strategic Importance of Bab el-Mandeb Strait

Geographical Significance: The Strait of Bab el-Mandeb is a crucial maritime chokepoint, connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
Impact on Global Shipping: Houthi actions near the strait have led to a significant decrease in Red Sea traffic and increased shipping costs.

Global and Regional Consequences

Effect on Israel: Israel’s southern port traffic, particularly in Eilat, has been severely impacted.
Broader Trade Implications: Approximately 12% of global maritime trade passes through the strait. Disruptions here could exacerbate inflationary pressures worldwide.
Alternative Routes: Shipping companies are rerouting around Africa, significantly increasing travel time and costs.

International Response

US Naval Task Force: The U.S. has established a naval force to counter the Houthi threat.
Arab World’s Stance: Many Red Sea countries, including Egypt, have not joined the U.S. task force, reflecting regional discontent with U.S. policies.
Potential Offensive Measures: The U.S. has not ruled out bombing Houthi targets in response to continued attacks on shipping lanes.

Conclusion

Continued Houthi Threat: The Houthis vow to persist in their actions as long as Israel’s conflict with Gaza continues.
Challenges for Global Trade: The situation underscores the fragility of global shipping routes and the potential for regional conflicts to have far-reaching economic impacts.
Need for Diplomatic Solutions: This complex scenario highlights the importance of diplomatic efforts to resolve regional tensions and protect vital maritime trade routes.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

US launches ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ to secure Red Sea

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Red Sea, Operation Prosperity Guardian

Mains level: Read the attached story

red sea

Central Idea

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the creation of Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect Red Sea commerce.
This follows missile and drone attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.

Operation Prosperity Guardian

Countries Involved: The U.K., Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain are participating.
Joint Patrols: These nations will conduct joint patrols in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Houthi Rebels’ Stance

Continued Aggression: Houthi rebels declared their intention to persist with attacks on Red Sea shipping.
Rebels’ Claims: They claim the US-led coalition aims to protect Israel and militarize the sea.
Attacks Beyond Yemen: Houthis have targeted vessels in key shipping lanes and launched attacks towards Israel.
Recent Drone Attack: Prior to Austin’s announcement, Houthis claimed a drone attack on cargo vessels in the region.

Significance of the Operation

Impact on Suez Canal Traffic: About 12% of global shipping traffic through the Suez Canal is affected by the unrest.
Rerouting and Economic Consequences: Shipping firms are diverting routes, leading to increased costs and delays.

About Red Sea

	Details
Location	Between Africa (Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti) and Asia (Saudi Arabia, Yemen).
Connection	Connects to the Indian Ocean via the Bab el Mandeb strait and the Gulf of Aden.
Length	Approximately 2,250 km long.
Width	Varies from 355 km at its widest point to 20 km at the Strait of Tiran.
Maximum Depth	About 7,254 feet (2,211 m) in the central median trench.
Unique Features	– One of the world’s saltiest bodies of water. – Notable for its rich ecosystem, including extensive coral reefs.
Climate	Generally hot and arid; surrounding desert and high evaporation rates contribute to its high salinity.
Economic Importance	Major shipping route; oil-rich region with significant petroleum deposits on the sea’s borders.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Article 99 of the UN Charter

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Article 99

Mains level: Read the attached story

Central Idea

The UN General Secretary wrote under Article 99 about the escalating threats to peace and security due to the situation in Gaza.
He mentioned the human suffering, deaths, and destruction in Israel and the Occupied Palestine Territory, emphasizing the need for a humanitarian ceasefire.

Understanding Article 99

Charter as an International Treaty: The UN Charter, the founding document of the United Nations, functions as an international treaty binding member states.
Article 99’s Provision: It allows the Secretary-General to bring any matter to the UNSC that may threaten international peace and security.
Discretionary Power: This article is seen as a discretionary power, requiring the Secretary-General to exercise political judgment, tact, and integrity.

Historical Invocation of Article 99

Rare Usage: Article 99 has been seldom invoked, with notable instances including the Congo upheaval in 1960 and Tunisia’s complaint against France in 1961.
Current Context: It is indicated that Guterres’ invocation of Article 99 over Gaza is a significant constitutional move.
Details of the Crisis: He mentioned the human suffering, deaths, and destruction in Israel and the Occupied Palestine Territory, emphasizing the need for a humanitarian ceasefire.

Potential Impact

Draft Resolution by UAE: Following Guterres’ letter, the United Arab Emirates submitted a draft resolution to the UNSC demanding an immediate ceasefire.
Voting Dynamics: For the resolution to pass, it requires at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes from the five permanent members.
Challenges in Reaching Consensus: The likelihood of unanimous support from permanent members is uncertain, given the US and Britain’s support for Israel’s military actions since October 7.

Conclusion

Guterres’ appeal underscores the severity of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
The outcome of the UNSC’s actions, influenced by Guterres’ appeal, remains pivotal in addressing the ongoing conflict and humanitarian situation in Gaza.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

What is the BDS movement, led by Palestinian groups against Israel?

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: BDS Movement

Mains level: Anti-Semitism, Racism, Apartheid

bds

Central Idea

An article in a German newspaper accused Indian poet Ranjit Hoskote of “anti-Semitism” and supporting the BDS (Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions) movement.

What is BDS Movement?

BDS (Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions) movement was launched in 2005 by over 170 Palestinian groups.
It aims to garner international support for Palestinian people’s rights.
BDS describes itself as an “inclusive, anti-racist human rights movement” opposing all forms of discrimination, including anti-Semitism and Islamophobia.
It draws inspiration from the South African anti-apartheid movement.

BDS Goals

BDS calls for nonviolent pressure on Israel until it complies with international law, with three key demands:
1. Ending Israel’s occupation and colonization of Arab lands and dismantling the Wall.
2. Recognizing the rights of Arab-Palestinian citizens of Israel to full equality.
3. Respecting, protecting, and promoting the rights of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes, as per UN Resolution 194.

Strategies of BDS

BDS involves boycotts of Israeli government, associated institutions, and companies involved in human rights violations.
Divestment campaigns urge institutions to withdraw investments from Israel.
Sanctions campaigns seek to pressure governments to fulfill legal obligations to end Israeli apartheid.
BDS focuses on a smaller number of carefully selected companies and products for maximum impact.

Israeli Government’s Response

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has linked BDS to anti-Semitism.
BDS argues that criticism of Israel’s violations of international law should not be equated with anti-Semitism.
Israeli Minister Gilad Erdan led efforts against the economic boycott of Israel but downplayed the threat.

Economic Impact of BDS

BDS has led to some brands and celebrities refusing to work in Israel.
Impact on an entire state’s economy is challenging to measure due to various factors.
BDS aims to become a powerful tool in ending western support for Israeli apartheid and settler colonialism.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Ben Gurion Canal Project: Joining Red Sea with Mediterranean

Prelims Only | Trivia | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Ben Gurion Canal Project

Mains level: Not Much

Ben Gurion Canal Project

Central Idea

Israel’s aspirations to gain full control over the Gaza Strip and eliminate Hamas may be linked to an ambitious economic opportunity—the creation of the Ben Gurion Canal Project.

Ben Gurion Canal Project

Vision: Named after Israel’s founding father, David Ben-Gurion, the Ben Gurion Canal Project remains an ambitious infrastructure proposal.
Route: It envisions cutting a canal through the Negev Desert to connect the Gulf of Aqaba with the Eastern Mediterranean, challenging Egypt’s dominance over the Suez Canal.
History: A declassified 1963 US government memorandum explored the idea of using nuclear explosives for digging the canal.
Need: It would offer an alternative route to connect Europe and Asia, bypassing the Suez Canal.
Transformational Impact: If realized, this project could reshape global trade dynamics by breaking Egypt’s monopoly over the shortest trade route.

Bypassing the Suez

Historical Significance: The Suez Canal, opened in 1869, revolutionized global maritime trade by reducing travel distances between Europe and Asia.
Congestion Issues: Despite expansion efforts, the Suez Canal remains congested, causing significant delays and economic losses.
Political Conflicts: Egypt’s control over the canal has led to conflicts and wars, impacting global geopolitics.

Logistical and Political Challenges

Complexity and Cost: Building the Ben Gurion Canal is a massive and costly endeavour, potentially exceeding $100 billion.
Route Length: The proposed canal route is over 100 km longer than the Suez Canal, primarily due to terrain limitations.
Security Concerns: Constant military threats, such as Hamas rockets or Israeli attacks, would pose a significant challenge to the canal’s operation.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Places in news: Dagestan

India Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Dagestan

Mains level: NA

Dagestan

Central Idea

A recent incident involving anti-Israel protesters storming an airport in Makhachkala, Dagestan, has drawn international attention.
This incident highlights the unique position of Dagestan, which, while sounding like a country, is actually a province within Russia.

About Dagestan

Dagestan, officially known as the Republic of Dagestan, is a province within the Russian Federation, dispelling any confusion arising from its name.
Situated in the southernmost part of Russia, it holds strategic importance for the country.

Geographical Location

Land of Mountains: Dagestan’s name translates to “land of the mountains,” emphasizing its mountainous terrain.
North Caucasus: Located in the eastern part of the North Caucasus, it shares borders with Georgia and Chechnya to the west and Azerbaijan to the south. To the east lies the Caspian Sea.
Inaccessible Terrain: Some areas within Dagestan’s mountains are so remote that reaching them requires helicopters.

Ethnic Diversity

Over 40 Ethnicities: The province is home to at least 40 different ethnic groups.
30+ Languages: More than 30 languages are spoken in this region.
Prominent Ethnic Groups: The largest ethnic group in Dagestan is the Avars, comprising approximately one-fifth of the population. Other significant groups include Dargins, Kumyks, and Lezgins.
Ethnic Russian Presence: Despite the ethnic diversity, around 10% of Dagestan’s population is ethnically Russian.

Capital: Makhachkala

Strategic Coastal City: Makhachkala, the capital of Dagestan, is situated along the Caspian Sea coast.
Historical Significance: Once a major trading port, Makhachkala was conquered by the Russian Imperial Army in the 19th century.
Oil and Gas Hub: Today, Dagestan serves as a crucial conduit for oil and gas pipelines connecting the Caspian Sea to Russia’s heartland, possessing its own reserves of these resources.
Challenges: The region has grappled with organized crime and instability, with Russian security forces combating armed insurgencies and militant groups in Dagestan and neighboring areas.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

UNGA Vote on Gaza War, and why India abstained

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: UNGA Resolutions

Mains level: India's stance on Palestinian War

unga hamas israel

Central Idea

The recent United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) vote on a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian truce in the Israel-Hamas conflict saw India abstaining from the vote.

What are UNGA Resolutions?

	UNGA Resolutions and Voting
What is it?	Cover diverse global issues, including disarmament, climate change, and humanitarian aid.
Types	Include regular, consensus (adopted without a vote), and procedural resolutions.
Who can initiate?	Originates from member states, UN committees, or regional groups after negotiations and debates.
Nature of Enforcement	Non-binding but hold moral and political influence on member states and UN bodies.
Significance	Shape international norms, public opinion, and state behavior despite lacking legal enforcement.
Features of UNGA Resolutions	Discussed and adopted during annual sessions, with possible special sessions when required.
Equal Voting Rights	Each member state has an equal vote, ensuring equality regardless of size or influence.
Majority Requirements	Typically adopted with a two-thirds majority of present and voting member states (e.g., 128 votes if all 193 are present).
Varied Majority Types	Some require a simple majority, while others, like UN Charter amendments, need a two-thirds majority of all member states.
Abstentions	Member states can abstain, signifying neutrality without supporting or opposing.
Challenges and Divisions	Resolutions may face opposition or receive no votes, leading to international discussions and divisions.

Resolution over Israel-Hamas War

The resolution, titled “Protection of civilians and upholding legal and humanitarian obligations,” was proposed by Jordan on behalf of the Arab League and co-sponsored by approximately 40 countries.
It called for an immediate humanitarian truce, cessation of hostilities, and unhindered humanitarian access to Gaza.
However, it did not specifically refer to the cowardly terror attacks by Hamas, which resulted in numerous Israeli casualties and hostages.
Ultimately, the resolution passed with 120 votes in favor, 14 against (including US and UK), and 45 abstentions, with India among the abstaining nations.

India’s Abstinent

India defended its abstention by citing the absence of “explicit condemnation” of the October 7 terror attacks in Israel in the resolution.
Since India’s concerns regarding these omissions were not addressed in the final text of the resolution, abstaining was the chosen course of action.
The government emphasized that there should be no ambiguity when it comes to condemning terrorism and that its position on this matter remains “steadfast and consistent.”
Key elements of India’s statement include-

Condemnation of violence, including the October 7 attacks by Hamas.
Acknowledgement of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and support for international de-escalation efforts.
Concern about the security situation and a call for all parties to exercise restraint.
Reiteration of India’s support for a negotiated two-state solution in the Israel-Palestine issue.
Encouragement for diplomacy and dialogue to create conditions for peace negotiations.

Why so furore over India’s action?

India’s abstention differed from its previous vote in favour of a UNGA resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza in 2018 and other similar votes in the past.
Opposition parties in India criticized the government for refusing to take a stronger stand on the humanitarian issue.
They argued that India’s abstention stood alone among countries in the Global South, South Asia, and BRICS, all of which had voted in favour of the resolution.

Significance of India’s action

Balanced Position: India’s abstention mirrors its approach to other global conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, where it seeks to maintain a diplomatic balance between opposing sides.
Not Legally Binding: Unlike UN Security Council resolutions, UNGA resolutions are not legally binding, meaning that Israel and the US are not obligated to act on it.
Weight and Moral Authority: Despite its non-binding nature, the resolution carries significant moral weight, with 120 votes in favour signifying support for international law and proportionate use of force.
India’s Principled Stand: India reiterated its support for a negotiated two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine issue and called for diplomacy and dialogue to resolve the conflict.

Conclusion

India’s abstention in the recent UN General Assembly vote reflects its balanced and nuanced approach to international conflicts.
While it has drawn criticism from some quarters, it underscores India’s commitment to principles of diplomacy and its focus on a negotiated resolution to complex global issues.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Places in news: Rafah Crossing

India Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2:

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Rafah Crossing

Mains level: NA

rafah crossing

Central Idea

Palestinians have been gathering at the Rafah border crossing with Egypt in the southern Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, Egypt has opened the borders for UN humanitarian aid for Palestinians.

What is Rafah Crossing?

The Rafah Crossing is a border crossing point between the Gaza Strip and Egypt, located in the southern Gaza Strip.
It serves as one of the few access points for people and goods to enter or exit the Gaza Strip, which is a Palestinian territory along the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea.
Egypt has maintained strict movement restrictions at the Rafah crossing for years, raising concerns that it indirectly supports Israel’s Gaza blockade, which began in 2007 after Hamas took control.

Egypt’s Role and Restrictions

Security Concerns: Security concerns in North Sinai, where Egypt has battled jihadists linked to Al Qaeda, have largely justified these restrictions.
Avoiding Exodus: Egypt may be reluctant to open the crossing without clear conditions and guarantees to avoid a mass exodus of Palestinians from Gaza.
Responsibility Concerns: Egypt is concerned about being responsible for a large influx of Gazans if the crossing is opened indefinitely.
Permanent Resettlement: Egypt is reluctant to facilitate a permanent resettlement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from Gaza.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

The Gaza War and Its Ramifications

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Gaza conflict and its impact on the geopolitics of the region

What’s the news?

The recent series of deadly attacks launched by Hamas on Israel has had profound implications for the dynamics of the Middle East.

Central idea

The recent lethal attacks launched by Hamas on Israel on October 7 have had significant repercussions, particularly in the realm of Israeli-Saudi relations and the broader Middle East geopolitical landscape. These attacks have effectively overturned Israeli efforts, backed by the United States, to foster normalization of relations with Arab states while neglecting Palestinian concerns.

Israeli Diplomacy

Normalization Agreements: Israel, under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pursued a strategy of normalizing relations with Arab countries. This strategy aimed to establish diplomatic ties with Arab nations that had historically been hostile or distant from Israel. Notable agreements included those with Egypt and Jordan, which were signed in the late 20th century.
The Abrahamic Accords: A significant milestone in Israeli diplomacy was the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. These agreements, brokered by the United States, led to the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and later Morocco. These agreements marked a shift in regional dynamics and signified growing acceptance of Israel in the Arab world.
Strategic Goals: Israel’s diplomatic efforts aimed to enhance its security, strengthen its regional influence, and broaden economic and technological cooperation with Arab states. These agreements also served to isolate Iran, which was seen as a common regional rival.

The role of the United States

Mediator and Facilitator: The United States has historically played a central role as a mediator in Israeli-Arab conflicts. It has facilitated peace talks, negotiations, and agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors. The U.S. has acted as a neutral party, using its diplomatic clout to bring parties to the negotiating table.
Broker of the Abraham Accords: In the case of the Abraham Accords, the United States, led by the Trump administration, took a proactive role in brokering these agreements. The U.S. actively encouraged Arab nations to establish diplomatic ties with Israel and provided political support and incentives to make these deals happen.
Strategic Interests: The United States had strategic interests in promoting Israeli-Arab normalization. These interests included strengthening its regional alliances, countering Iranian influence, and promoting stability in the Middle East.
Security Assistance: The U.S. has provided substantial military aid and security assistance to Israel, reinforcing its position in the region and ensuring its qualitative military edge. This support has been a cornerstone of the U.S.-Israel relationship.

The Gaza War and Its Ramifications

Reemphasis on the Palestinian Issue: The Gaza War has once again thrust the Palestinian issue to the forefront of regional politics. It has drawn attention to the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the unresolved grievances of the Palestinian people.
Regional Instability: The conflict in Gaza has contributed to regional instability and heightened tensions. It has the potential to spill over into neighboring countries and exacerbate existing regional conflicts.
Impact on Israeli-Saudi Normalization Efforts: The Gaza War has had significant implications for Israel’s efforts to normalize relations with Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. It has disrupted the momentum of normalization, as Saudi Arabia, like other Arab nations, has faced domestic pressure to condemn Israeli actions in Gaza.
Saudi Arabia’s Shift: Saudi Arabia’s response to the Gaza War represents a notable shift in its stance. While previously open to normalizing relations with Israel, the kingdom has now emphasized the importance of addressing Palestinian interests and rights. This change in stance may have lasting implications for Saudi foreign policy and its relations with both Israel and the United States.
Iran’s Role: Some observers have speculated about Iran’s role in instigating Hamas attacks to undermine Saudi-Israeli normalization efforts. However, it is essential to note that Saudi-Iran relations had already undergone a degree of normalization before the Gaza War, reducing the likelihood of Iranian involvement as a primary motivator.
Humanitarian Crisis: The conflict has led to a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with casualties, displacement, and infrastructure damage. The international community has been called upon to address the immediate humanitarian needs of the Palestinian population.
Impact on Regional Alliances: The Gaza War has influenced the alignment of regional alliances, with countries taking positions based on their historical relationships and geopolitical interests. This could potentially reshape alliances and cooperation in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia’s Evolving Foreign Policy

Pursuit of Strategic Autonomy: Over the past few years, Saudi Arabia has demonstrated a growing willingness to pursue an independent foreign policy. The kingdom has sought to assert its strategic autonomy and reduce its reliance on traditional allies, including the United States.
Refusal to Align with Anti-China or Anti-Iran Coalitions: Saudi Arabia has rejected U.S. efforts to build global anti-China coalitions and regional anti-Iran alliances. Despite U.S. pressure, the kingdom has maintained its own strategic interests and relationships.
Stronger Ties with China: Saudi Arabia has deepened its relations with China, particularly in the areas of trade, investment, and energy cooperation. The kingdom recognizes China’s increasing global influence and sees it as an important economic partner.
Multifaceted Engagement Across Asia: Saudi Arabia has actively pursued multifaceted relationships across Asia, including with countries like India and Pakistan. These engagements encompass economic, diplomatic, and security cooperation, reflecting the kingdom’s aim to expand its influence in the Asian region.

Way forward: Concrete Actions for Palestinian Interests

Commitment to a Two-State Solution: Both Israel and the Palestinian leadership should unequivocally reaffirm their commitment to a two-state solution, recognizing the need for an independent and viable Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Freeze Settlement Expansion: Israel should halt all settlement construction activities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Settlement expansion remains a significant obstacle to peace and threatens the territorial integrity of a future Palestinian state.
Cessation of Violence: All parties involved must commit to ending violence and terrorism. This includes a complete halt to rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel and measures to prevent violence on both sides. A comprehensive ceasefire agreement should be sought.
Support for Palestinian Elections: The international community should support transparent and inclusive Palestinian elections to strengthen the legitimacy of the Palestinian leadership. These elections should adhere to international standards.
Address Core Issues: Negotiations should address core issues such as the status of Jerusalem, the right of return for Palestinian refugees, and the delineation of borders for a future Palestinian state. These issues must be resolved through peaceful negotiations based on international principles.
International Mediation and Oversight: International actors, including the Quartet, should actively mediate and oversee the peace process to ensure accountability, adherence to agreements, and a fair and balanced negotiation environment.

Conclusion

The Gaza conflict has had a profound impact on the geopolitics of the region, particularly by reemphasizing the importance of addressing Palestinian concerns. While Israel’s efforts to normalize relations with Arab states face challenges, Saudi Arabia’s renewed focus on the Palestinian cause marks a significant shift in its foreign policy approach, underscoring the evolving dynamics in the Middle East.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

War Crimes Laws invoked in Israel-Palestinian Conflict

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: 1949 Geneva Conventions

Mains level: Read the attached story

war crime

Central Idea

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestinian forces, triggered by Hamas’ barbaric assault, has resulted in a distressing and increasing death toll on both sides.
This conflict operates within a multifaceted international system of justice that has evolved since World War II.

Various War Crime Laws

1949 Geneva Conventions: Internationally accepted rules of armed conflict emerged from these conventions, ratified by all UN member states and complemented by decisions at international war crimes tribunals.
“Law of Armed Conflict”: A series of treaties collectively known as the “Law of Armed Conflict” or “International Humanitarian Law” governs the treatment of civilians, soldiers, and prisoners of war. It applies to both government forces and organized armed groups, including Hamas militants.
ICC Jurisdiction: The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague holds the authority to bring charges against alleged perpetrators if domestic courts do not or cannot do so.

Role and Jurisdiction of the ICC

Establishment: The ICC, a permanent war crimes tribunal, was established in 2002 in The Hague. It has jurisdiction over war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide committed in its 123 member states or by their nationals.
Notable Absences: Major global powers like China, the United States, Russia, India, and Egypt are not ICC members. Israel rejects the court’s jurisdiction and does not formally engage with it.
Ongoing Investigation: ICC prosecutors have been investigating allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied Palestinian territories since 2021, although no arrest warrants have been issued.

Acts Potentially Violating War Crimes Law

Deliberate Targeting of Civilians: Human Rights Watch identified potential war crimes, including the intentional targeting of civilians, indiscriminate rocket attacks, and the hostage-taking of civilians by Palestinian armed groups.
Israeli Counter-Strikes: Israeli counter-strikes in Gaza, resulting in the deaths of numerous Palestinians, could also fall under scrutiny as potential war crimes.
Geneva Conventions Prohibitions: The Geneva Conventions explicitly prohibit acts such as taking hostages, murder, and torture, regardless of the conflict’s complexity.

Application of the Geneva Conventions

Right to Respond: US President Joe Biden acknowledged Israel’s right and duty to respond to the conflict while emphasizing the importance of acting within the rule of law.
Siege Considerations: A siege may be considered a war crime if it disproportionately targets civilians rather than undermining Hamas’ military capabilities or if it is found to be disproportionate.
Proportionality: Attacks on military targets must be proportionate, meaning they should not result in excessive civilian casualties or damage compared to the expected military advantage.

Conclusion

The Israel-Palestine conflict unfolds against a backdrop of intricate international legal frameworks and considerations.
Navigating the complexities of determining war crimes in this context requires a meticulous examination of actions on all sides, considering proportionality, deliberate targeting of civilians, and adherence to the Geneva Conventions.
As the conflict’s toll continues to rise, scrutiny of potential violations of international humanitarian law remains essential for justice and accountability.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

India’s Evolving Diplomatic Stance on Palestine

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: India-Palestine Relations

palestine

Central Idea

India’s diplomatic position on the Israel-Palestine conflict has witnessed significant shifts over the years.
While PM recent expression of solidarity with Israel during a period of heightened conflict has sparked debate, it is essential to contextualize these developments in India’s historical foreign policy.
This article delves into India’s stance on the Israel-Palestine issue, the factors shaping its policies, and the implications of its evolving approach.

Historical Background

India’s Early Stance: India’s initial position on the Israel-Palestine issue was shaped by leaders like Jawaharlal Nehru and Mahatma Gandhi. In 1947, India voted against UN Resolution 181, advocating for the partition of Mandatory Palestine. Nehru favored a federal state with wide autonomy for Arabs and Jews, influenced by Gandhi’s opposition to a Jewish state.
Recognition of Israel: Despite recognizing Israel in 1950, India did not establish diplomatic relations until 1992. Factors such as a sizable Muslim population, Cold War dynamics, and the need to maintain Arab support influenced this delayed recognition.

Impact of Establishing Diplomatic Relations

End of Cold War: India’s decision to establish diplomatic ties with Israel in 1992 marked a shift after the end of the Cold War. The government of P.V. Narasimha Rao took this bold step, focusing on national interests and strengthening economic relations, particularly in defense.
Ongoing Support for Palestine: India’s recognition of Israel did not signal abandonment of its principled support for Palestine. India continued to voice support for the Palestinian cause while developing closer ties with Israel.

Contemporary Developments

India-Israel Relations: Presently, India enjoys a strong and multifaceted relationship with Israel. Prime Ministers Modi and Netanyahu have cultivated personal rapport, and both countries collaborate closely, especially in the defense sector.
Change in Rhetoric: India has adopted a more measured approach in its rhetoric regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, especially in international forums like the United Nations. Some argue that India’s pro-Palestine stance has not yielded commensurate benefits in terms of national interest.
Ideological Shift: India’s support for Israel’s response to attacks from Gaza is sometimes misinterpreted as anti-Islamic action. Israel’s approach to cross-border terrorism resonates with some in India, although the situations differ significantly.

India’s Formal Position

Support for Two-State Solution: India officially supports the two-state solution, envisioning Israel and Palestine as peaceful neighbours coexisting harmoniously.
Official visits: PM Modi’s visit to Ramallah in 2018 underscored India’s commitment to this position.
Public perception: A large section of Indian society is supportive of the Palestinian cause due to religious affinities.

Potential Implications of Current Escalation

Palestinian Reaction: While the Palestinians may express dissatisfaction with India’s growing proximity to Israel, it is unlikely to result in significant backlash. Popular sentiment may revive support for the Palestinian cause.
Arab World’s Perspective: Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, have shifted their focus from the Palestinian issue. They are increasingly open to normalizing relations with Israel. India’s stance is unlikely to disrupt its relationships with these nations.

Conclusion

India’s evolving stance on the Israel-Palestine issue reflects its pragmatic approach to foreign policy.
While it maintains support for Palestine, India has strategically developed robust relations with Israel, grounded in national interests.
The recent expression of solidarity with Israel amid conflict highlights the complexities of India’s diplomatic balancing act in the region.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Operation Ajay to evacuate Indian nationals from Israel

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Operation Ajay

Mains level: Not Much

Central Idea

India has initiated Operation Ajay to evacuate its citizens who wish to return from conflict-ridden Israel.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar announced this operation, emphasizing the safety and well-being of Indian nationals abroad.

Operation Ajay

Evacuation Plan: Special chartered flights and other arrangements are being organized for the return of Indian citizens from Israel.
Second Evacuation: This marks the second evacuation operation this year, following Operation Kaveri, which brought back several thousand Indian citizens from strife-torn Sudan in April-May.

Significance: Indian Jewish Community

The Indian Jewish community, with an ancestry spanning over 2000 years in India, has a unique history.
India has been a welcoming home to them, where they thrived without encountering anti-Semitism, making it a distinct place on the global map.
However, the landscape changed with the independence of India in 1947 and the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948.
This transformation marked the beginning of a new chapter in India-Israel relations, leading to the migration of Indian Jews to their religious homeland.

Diverse Indian Jewish Groups

Indian Jews can be categorized into four main sects, each with its own historical origins and cultural traditions:

Cochin Jews: Tracing their arrival to India back to 50 CE, they primarily settled in the southern region.
Bene Israel: The largest group among Indian Jews, they settled in and around Maharashtra and Konkan.
Baghdadi Jews: This group, part of the most recent wave of Jewish migration, established communities in port cities like Calcutta, Bombay, and Rangoon.
Bnei Menashe: Settled in the North East, they are another significant segment of Indian Jews.

Complex Reception in Israel

The migration of Indian Jews to Israel was not without challenges. Israeli society struggled to embrace them due to several factors:

Internal Divisions: The four Indian Jewish groups had substantial differences and disagreements among themselves. These internal divisions, combined with bias from Jews of European origin, complicated the reception of Indian Jews, especially in the initial years of migration.
Discrimination: The Bene Israel, primarily from Maharashtra, faced significant discrimination upon their arrival in Israel. Reports in the 1950s highlighted instances of racism and unequal treatment, including job and housing discrimination.
Differing Motivations: Indian Jews’ motivations for migrating varied. While the Cochin Jews were seen as driven by religious reasons, the Bene Israel were often perceived as seeking better economic prospects, leading to different treatment based on perceived motives.
Economic Disparities: The economic differences among the four groups fueled animosity. Some attributed the Cochin Jews’ messianic aspirations to poverty, while the Baghdadi Jews considered the Bene Israel as lacking proper religious traditions.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Gandhi’s Stance on Israel and Palestine: A Closer Look

Prelims Only | | Mains Paper 1: Modern Indian History

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Israel-Palestine Issue

Central Idea

Mahatma Gandhi’s perspective on the Israel-Palestine issue has been a topic of extensive debate over the years.
His article, ‘The Jews,’ written in 1938, offers insights into his complex views on the matter.
Gandhi’s sentiments regarding the Jewish people, the Holocaust, and the creation of a Zionist state in Palestine are subjects of scrutiny and admiration, shedding light on his unwavering commitment to non-violence.

Gandhi’s Sympathy for the Jewish People

Historical Persecution: Gandhi expressed deep sympathy for the Jewish people who had endured historical persecution due to their religion. He likened their mistreatment by Christians to the plight of untouchables in Hinduism.
German Persecution: Gandhi went further, describing the German persecution of Jews as unparalleled in history. He voiced concern over Britain’s appeasement policy toward Adolf Hitler and asserted that a war against Germany, if necessary to prevent Jewish persecution, would be justifiable in the name of humanity.

Opposition to a Zionist State in Palestine

Violence and Settlement: Gandhi firmly opposed the imposition of Jews on Arabs in Palestine, condemning it as inhumane. He believed that the settlement of Jews, facilitated by Britain, was inherently violent and could not be achieved through force.
Need for Arab Goodwill: Gandhi insisted that Jews could only settle in Palestine with the goodwill of the Arab population, without the assistance of British military force.
Antithetical to Jewish Rights: He argued that the idea of a Jewish homeland in Palestine contradicted the Jews’ struggle for rights in other parts of the world. Gandhi questioned whether Jews, who had settled globally, would appreciate being compelled to leave other regions for a singular homeland.

Influence on India’s Foreign Policy

Wider Anti-Imperialist Sentiment: Gandhi’s stance on Palestine resonated with leaders across the Arab world and anti-imperialist movements globally. The Balfour Declaration of 1917, promising Jews a homeland in the British Mandate of Palestine, drew criticism.
Impact on Nehru: Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister, was profoundly influenced by Gandhi’s views. Gandhi’s anti-imperialism and his perspective on the Israel-Palestine issue shaped India’s foreign policy for decades.
UN Resolution and Recognition: India voted against UN Resolution 181, which proposed the partition of Palestine between Jews and Arabs. Although India recognized the state of Israel in 1950, it was not until 1992, under Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao, that official diplomatic relations were established.

Conclusion

Mahatma Gandhi’s complex and empathetic stance on the Israel-Palestine issue reflects his unwavering commitment to non-violence and his deep sympathy for the Jewish people.
His opinions on the matter, rooted in anti-imperialism and a profound sense of humanity, played a pivotal role in shaping India’s foreign policy and continue to be subjects of historical significance and debate.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

India’s Evolving Relations with Israel and Palestine

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Israel-Palestine Conflict

Mains level: Read the attached story

israel

Central Idea

The recent attack by Hamas (Arab sponsored Jihadist outfit) on Israel has prompted PM Modi to express solidarity with Israel, highlighting the complex nature of India’s relations with both Israel and Palestine.
Over the past seven decades, India’s stance on these nations has undergone significant shifts, reflecting its evolving foreign policy priorities and diplomatic considerations.

About Israel-Palestine Conflict

Historical Background: The land of contention was under the Ottoman Empire and later the British Empire.
Anti-Semitism as Official Policy: Several Islamic countries, including the Arab world, Turkiye and Pakistan, have officially expressed hatred against Jews citing reference to religious scriptures.
Denial of Access: Jews, as a micro-minority of the world, have been denied access to their historic homeland.
Arab Resistance: Arabs resisted, claiming the land as their own, known as Palestine at the time.
Balfour Declaration: In 1917, the United Kingdom expressed support for the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine.
Violent Resistance: Arab resistance to the declaration led to violence and further tensions.

India’s quest for Balancing Relations

India’s Post-Independence Stance

Nehru and Gandhi’s Stand: Post-independence, India was staunchly pro-Palestine as Jawaharlal Nehru and Mahatma Gandhi opposed religious exclusivity and supported the Palestinian cause.
UN Votes: India voted against the partition of Palestine and Israel’s admission to the UN but recognized Israel in 1950 after Turkey and Iran did so.

Era of Indira and Rajiv Gandhi

Support for Palestine: During Indira Gandhi’s rule, India continued its support for the Palestinian struggle, elevating the PLO to the sole legitimate representative of Palestine.
Solidarity and Diplomacy: Strong ties were forged with Yasser Arafat, and India hosted the NAM summit in 1983, emphasizing solidarity with Palestine.

Changing Dynamics

Critics and Shifts: Critics within India raised concerns about its pro-Arab stance, given Arab countries’ neutrality during India’s wars with China and Pakistan.
Indian-Israeli Relations: India recognized Israel in 1992, establishing full diplomatic relations after the end of the Cold War and BJP’s rise to power.
Kargil Conflict: During the Kargil conflict in 1999, Israel provided crucial military support, strengthening bilateral ties.

Recent Developments

PM Modi’s Approach: Prime Minister Modi’s approach has balanced India’s ties with Israel and Palestine. He visited Israel in 2017, signaling a shift in focus.
De-hyphenation: Modi achieved a de-hyphenation of the relationship by separately visiting Palestine in 2018.
Wider Regional Engagement: India has deepened ties with Israel and West Asian nations like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and Iran over the past decade.

Current Dilemma

Diplomatic Tight Spot: Recent hostilities in the region have placed India in a diplomatic dilemma. The conflict tests India’s relations with Israel and Palestine against the backdrop of the Abraham Accords and shifting Middle East dynamics.
Dividends at Stake: India had hoped to benefit from the newfound peace in the region, given its significant diaspora, connectivity, and energy imports from West Asia.

Conclusion

India’s relationship with Israel and Palestine has evolved significantly since independence, influenced by domestic politics, global shifts, and regional considerations.
While India continues to support the Palestinian cause, it has also strengthened its strategic ties with Israel.
The recent escalation in hostilities in the region poses challenges for India’s diplomatic balancing act and its aspirations in the Middle East.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Israel-Hamas War

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Israel-Palestine crisis, Impact on the region, India's relations and its Impact

What’s the news?

The recent escalation of violence between Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group, and Israel has resulted in a significant loss of life and raised concerns internationally. At the heart of this conflict is Operation Al-Aqsa Deluge, initiated by Hamas, which has led to a series of events with far-reaching implications for the region.

Central idea

The recent Hamas operation, Toofan Al-Aqsa (Al-Aqsa Flood), bears uncanny similarities to the launch of the 19-day Yom Kippur War that occurred 50 years ago. While the Yom Kippur War had inconclusive results, it led to a significant regional shift, ultimately resulting in Israel’s acceptance of the ‘land for peace’ formula at the Camp David Accords six years later.

Quick recap: Understand the conflict

Muhammad Deif’s Statement: Muhammad Deif, the military commander of Hamas, delivered a recorded message, characterizing the operation as a moment for people to regain their revolution.
The Significance of Al-Aqsa Mosque: Central to this conflict is the Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of the holiest sites in Islam after Mecca and Medina. Situated on a hill known as Temple Mount to Jews and the Noble Sanctuary to Muslims, the mosque is located in the heart of Jerusalem’s Old City. It houses two important Muslim holy sites: the Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa Mosque (also known as the Qibli Mosque), dating back to the 8th century AD.
Historical Context: The Al-Aqsa Mosque complex overlooks the Western Wall, a sacred site for Jews believed to have been constructed 3,000 years ago by King Solomon.
Capture by Israel: In 1967, during the Middle East War, Israel captured the site and later annexed it, actions not recognized internationally.
Triggering Tensions: The Al-Aqsa Mosque has been a long-standing focal point of Israeli-Palestinian tensions, leading to clashes and conflicts.
2021 Conflict: Recent clashes in 2021 resulted in a 10-day-long war, leading to casualties on both sides.
April Clashes: In April of the same year, Israeli police clashed with Palestinians at the site, sparking cross-border exchanges of fire.
International Concern: The ongoing violence, particularly centered around Al-Aqsa Mosque, has raised international concerns and has broader implications for regional stability.

Hold On! Don’t scroll past this

An overview of major flare-ups and significant events (2005 to October 2023)

August 2005: Israel unilaterally withdraws from the Gaza Strip, leaving it under Palestinian Authority control.
January 25, 2006: Hamas wins a majority of seats in Palestinian legislative elections, leading to a cutoff of aid by Israel and the U.S. due to Hamas’s refusal to renounce violence and recognize Israel.
June 25, 2006: Hamas militants capture Israeli army conscript Gilad Shalit, leading to Israeli air strikes and incursions. Shalit is released more than five years later in a prisoner exchange.
June 14, 2007: Hamas takes over Gaza in a brief civil war, ousting Fatah forces loyal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
December 27, 2008: Israel launches a 22-day military offensive in Gaza in response to rocket attacks. A ceasefire is eventually agreed upon after casualties on both sides.
November 14, 2012: Israel kills Hamas’s military chief of staff, Ahmad Jabari, leading to eight days of conflict involving Palestinian militant rocket fire and Israeli air strikes.
July-August 2014: The kidnapping and killing of three Israeli teenagers by Hamas lead to a seven-week war, resulting in casualties in both Gaza and Israel.
March 2018: Palestinian protests begin at Gaza’s border with Israel, leading to clashes and casualties.
May 2021: Tension during Ramadan leads to clashes at the Al Aqsa compound in Jerusalem. Hamas launches rocket attacks from Gaza, and Israel responds with airstrikes, resulting in an 11-day conflict.
August 2022: Israeli airstrikes target an Islamic Jihad commander, leading to rocket attacks from Islamic Jihad in Gaza and a limited escalation.
January 2023: Islamic Jihad fires rockets into Israel in response to Israeli actions in a refugee camp.
October 2023: Hamas launches a major attack on Israel from Gaza, combining a border crossing with rocket barrages. Islamic Jihad joins the attack.

Potential Outcomes of the Ongoing Conflict

Israel’s Military Superiority: Israel is not under an existential threat from Hamas, and the outcome of the conflict is expected to favor Israel. A massive ground incursion into Gaza may follow to restore morale, re-establish strategic dominance, and rescue captives.
Reevaluation of Israeli Strategies: The conflict’s experiences, including intelligence failures and overreliance on high-tech missile defense and artificial intelligence, may compel Israel to revise its strategic doctrines.
Impact on Non-State Arab Militias: Depending on the conflict’s endgame, it could potentially boost the standing of non-state Arab militias such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and others in the region.
Geographic Confinement: The crisis is likely to remain geographically confined to Gaza and its immediate surroundings, due to limited support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the region.
The Palestinian Authority’s Dilemma: The Palestinian Authority is divided between the West Bank and Gaza, with Fatah losing credibility. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are capitalizing on this to establish their presence in the West Bank.
Regional Non-Support for Hamas: Regionally, there is little support for Hamas, except for Turkey. Egypt, in particular, does not favor Hamas, given its past ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Gulf monarchies, except Qatar, strongly disapprove of Hamas.
Iran’s Involvement: Iran has been a mentor to Hamas and Islamic Jihad and has attempted to supply weapons to Gaza. Iran’s involvement could escalate the crisis further.

Impact on the Region

Risk of Delay in Regional Diplomacy: The crisis may delay regional diplomatic efforts, including the potential rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, due to Israel’s reluctance to make concessions sought by Riyadh.
Repercussions for the Abraham Accords: The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and some Arab states, could face challenges due to the ongoing conflict.
Potential Iranian Gains: Iran may feel emboldened by the conflict, potentially affecting regional dynamics and tensions.

Impact on India

While India is not directly affected, it could feel some indirect effects, such as an oil price rise, impacts on the Indian diaspora, and potential setbacks for regional economic initiatives.
However, India’s reputation as a stable and fast-growing economy may be enhanced in this context.

Conclusion

The Toofan Al-Aqsa crisis has regional implications that could alter the dynamics in the Middle East. As the situation evolves, it remains essential for stakeholders, including India, to monitor developments closely and prepare for potential repercussions while seeking avenues for diplomatic engagement and stability in the region.

Must read:

India’s Evolving Relations with Israel and Palestine

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Azerbaijan launches crackdown against Armenia

India Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict

Mains level: NA

armenia_azerbaijan

Central Idea

Azerbaijan announced the continuation of military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh for the second consecutive day, describing it as “anti-terror” operations.
The government asserts that these operations will persist until ethnic-Armenian separatists’ surrender.

Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict

Persistent Tensions: The South Caucasus region has experienced prolonged tensions over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.
Lachin Corridor Blockade: Over the past nine months, Azerbaijan has effectively imposed a blockade on the Lachin Corridor, the sole route from Armenia into Nagorno-Karabakh.

Nagorno-Karabakh: The Epicenter

Historical Conflict: Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan during the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Ceasefire in 1994: A ceasefire was established in 1994 after significant casualties and displacement occurred.
Frequent Accusations: Azerbaijan and Armenia frequently accuse each other of attacks around Nagorno-Karabakh and along the separate Azeri-Armenian frontier.

Economic Implications of Conflict

Global Diplomacy: The clashes have spurred diplomatic efforts to prevent a new outbreak of a long-standing conflict between Christian-majority Armenia and mainly Muslim Azerbaijan.
Energy Pipelines: Pipelines transporting Caspian oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan to global markets pass near Nagorno-Karabakh.
Regional Instability: The conflict raises concerns about instability in the South Caucasus, a vital corridor for pipelines facilitating the transport of oil and gas to international markets.

India’s Role: Interests and Challenges

Asymmetric Relations: India maintains a friendship and cooperation treaty with Armenia (signed in 1995), which restricts India from providing military or any other assistance to Azerbaijan.
Investments in Azerbaijan: Indian companies, such as ONGC/OVL and GAIL, have made investments in oilfield projects and LNG exploration in Azerbaijan.
Connectivity Potential: Azerbaijan lies on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), linking India to Russia via Central Asia. It also offers connectivity to Turkey through the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars rail link.
Kashmir Dynamics: While Armenia unequivocally supports India’s stance on the Kashmir issue, Azerbaijan opposes it and aligns with Pakistan’s narrative.
India’s South Caucasus Policy: India lacks a publicly articulated policy for the South Caucasus, and the region remains on the periphery of its foreign policy focus.

Balancing Act for India

Conflict of Principles: The conflict centers on two international principles: territorial integrity, advocated by Azerbaijan, and the right to self-determination, supported by Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.
India’s Dilemma: India faces a dilemma as it cannot openly endorse Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, considering Azerbaijan’s disregard for India’s territorial integrity in Jammu and Kashmir.
Avoiding Misuse: However, India must be cautious not to publicly support Nagorno-Karabakh’s right to self-determination, as it could have implications for India’s territorial integrity and be exploited by adversaries like Pakistan.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Armenia and Azerbaijan Conflict

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Nagorno-Karabakh region

Mains level: Usual crisis in the middle east and caucasus region

Central Idea

Three Armenian soldiers have been killed in firing from Azerbaijan as tensions between the two countries persist.

Consider this PYQ:

Q.The area is known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to: (CSP 2015)

a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa

Post your answers here.

What is the dispute?

Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region that is inside Azerbaijan but is run by ethnic Armenians, declared martial law and mobilized their male populations.
Armenia said Azerbaijan had carried out an air and artillery attack on Nagorno-Karabakh.

Epicentre: The Nagorno-Karabakh region

Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan in a conflict that broke out as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
A ceasefire was agreed in 1994 after thousands of people were killed and many more displaced.
Azerbaijan and Armenia frequently accuse each other of attacks around Nagorno-Karabakh and along the separate Azeri-Armenian frontier.

Economics behind the clashes

The clashes prompted a flurry of diplomacy to prevent a new flare-up of a decades-old conflict between majority Christian Armenia and mainly Muslim Azerbaijan.
Pipelines shipping Caspian oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan to the world pass close to Nagorno-Karabakh.
The clashes have raised concerns about instability in the South Caucasus, a corridor for pipelines transporting oil and gas to world markets.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Israel Judicial Reform Explained: What is the crisis about?

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Constitutional crisis in Israel

israel

Central Idea

On July 24, the governing coalition in Israel’s Parliament (Knesset) passed a critical part of its judicial overhaul plan, aimed at curbing the Supreme Court’s oversight powers over government decisions.
This has sparked months of protests against the right-religious government’s plans to transform the judiciary.

Judiciary Overhaul: The Crisis Trigger

Abolishing the “Reasonability Doctrine”: The Knesset legislation abolishes the “reasonable doctrine” used by the Supreme Court to assess government decisions and ministerial appointments. This doctrine allowed the court to determine the sensibility and fairness of government decisions and nullify them if deemed necessary.
Reasonability Doctrine in Other Countries: The reasonability standard is a legal standard used in several countries, including Australia, Canada, and the U.K., by top courts to evaluate government decisions.
Criticism and Justification: Supporters of the government argue that the reasonability standard is too abstract and prone to judicial overreach, justifying its removal. They claim that this change will prevent courts from interfering in executive decisions.

Other Proposals in the Overhaul Plan

Curbing Judicial Review: The original overhaul plan included proposals to limit judicial review over legislation and empower Parliament to override court decisions with a majority vote of 61 out of 120.
Greater Control of Judicial Appointments: The government seeks to replace members of the Bar Association in the nine-member panel responsible for selecting judges with “public representatives” chosen by the government. This change would give the government a majority vote in the committee and more control over judicial appointments.
Ministers’ Autonomy from Legal Advisers: Another proposal seeks to remove the legal obligation for Ministers to follow the advice given by their legal advisers, including the Attorney-General’s guidance.

Motivation behind the Overhaul

Right-Wing Government’s Agenda: Israel’s current government, composed of right-wing, ultra-Orthodox, and extreme-right parties, aims to strengthen its control over the judiciary. The right-wing leaders have criticized the judiciary for impeding their legislative agenda and settlement expansion in Palestinian territories.
Shift in Israel’s Polity: Over the years, Israel’s polity has shifted rightward, while the judiciary remained relatively independent. The right-wing has long advocated for bringing the courts under the Parliament’s ambit.
Influence of Think Tank: The Kohelet Policy Forum, a think tank backed by American and Israeli billionaires, has played a significant role in formulating the judicial reforms. Kohelet seeks to advance right-wing policy reforms in Israel and has pushed for the overhaul of the judiciary.

Protests and Concerns

Undermining Democracy: Critics, including the Opposition and civil society, argue that the government’s actions are an attempt to undermine Israel’s democracy. They fear that concentrating power within the government, controlled by right-wing and religious parties, could lead to an authoritarian theocracy.
Tensions between Liberal and Orthodox Jews: Protests have spread to different groups, including military reservists, amid concerns that religious parties may undermine the courts and empower religious sections.
Supreme Court Review: Civil society groups have filed petitions in the Supreme Court challenging the legislation on the reasonability doctrine. The court, facing a constitutional showdown, will review the challenges, even though the law curtails its own powers.

Conclusion

The passage of the judicial overhaul plan in Israel’s Knesset has significant implications for the country’s governance and democratic fabric.
The concentration of power within the government and curtailing the Supreme Court’s oversight powers has raised concerns about checks and balances.
Civil society’s petitions and the Supreme Court’s subsequent decisions will be crucial in determining the future course of Israel’s judiciary and its democratic institutions.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Israel targets West Bank

| International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: West Bank, Gaza

Mains level: Israel-Palestine Issue

west bank

Central Idea

Israel conducted a military operation in the occupied West Bank, resembling past large-scale operations.
This strike has resulted in casualties among Palestinians.

West Bank and Its Significance

The West Bank: A landlocked territory in Western Asia, forming the main part of the Palestinian territories.
Geographical Borders: Bordered by Jordan, the Dead Sea, Israel (south, west, and north), and the Mediterranean coast.
Anti-Semitism as Official Policy: Several theocratic countries, including the Arab world, the self-proclaimed caliphate ‘Turkiye,’ and even Pakistan, have officially expressed hatred against Jews.
Denial of Access: Jews, as a micro-minority of the world, have been denied access to their homeland.

Understanding Israel-Palestine Conflict

Historical Background: The land of contention was under the Ottoman Empire and later the British Empire.
Palestinian Aspirations: Palestinians, Arab people from the area, seek a state named Palestine in the region.
Conflict over Land and Control: Dispute over territorial ownership and governance between Israelis and Palestinians.
Jewish Aspiration for Homeland: Jews fleeing persecution in Europe sought to establish a Jewish state on what they believed to be their ancient homeland.
Arab Resistance: Arabs resisted, claiming the land as their own, known as Palestine at the time.
Balfour Declaration: In 1917, the United Kingdom expressed support for the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine.
Violent Resistance: Arab resistance to the declaration led to violence and further tensions.

Jewish Immigration to West Bank

Migration Statistics: Thousands of Jews migrated to Palestine during the 1920s and 1930s.
Arab Opposition: Palestinian Arabs demanded the UK to halt Jewish emigration, leading to violent incidents.
The British Mandate for Palestine: Issued in 1923 by the League of Nations, giving the UK the responsibility to create a Jewish national homeland.
Partition Proposal: In 1936, the UK recommended the partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.

Escalation of the Conflict

Involvement of the UN: In 1947, the issue of Palestine was referred to the UN, resulting in a partition plan.
Peace Proposals: The UN suggested two separate states with economic cooperation or a single bi-national state with autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas.
Arab Invasion and Israeli Independence: In 1948, Israel declared independence, leading to immediate invasions by Arab countries.
Territory Changes: Israel gained some territory designated for Palestinian Arabs under the UN resolution, including the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

Resolving the Conflict: Two-State Solution

Idea: The two-state solution aims to establish Israeli and Palestinian states coexisting in the region.
Elusiveness of the Solution: Over the decades, the two-state solution has not been realized.
Importance: Establishing separate states for Israelis and Palestinians addresses the root cause of the conflict.

Challenges to the Two-State Solution

(1) Borders:

Drawing the Lines: No consensus exists on how to define the borders.
Pre-1967 Lines: Some argue for using the borders before the Israeli-Arab war in 1967.
Israeli Settlements: The presence of Israeli settlements in the West Bank complicates the border issue.

(2) Question of Jerusalem:

Capital Claims: Both Israel and Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital.
Complex Division: Dividing Jerusalem into Israeli and Palestinian sectors proves challenging due to the overlapping of holy sites.

(3) Refugee Issue:

Palestinian Refugees: Large numbers of Palestinians became refugees during the 1948 War.
Right of Return: Palestinians and their descendants, numbering around 5 million, demand the right to return, which Israel rejects.

(4) Security Concerns:

Harassment by Hamas: Israel faces security threats from Hamas, a terrorist group controlling the Gaza Strip.
Palestinian Attacks: Palestinians also face security concerns, seeking an end to foreign military occupation.

Importance of the Two-State Solution

Fulfilling Aspirations: The two-state solution provides both Jews and Arabs with their respective states.
Alternative Limitations: Other solutions, such as a single state, would lead to a minority status for Jews or an unhappy Arab majority.

Moral Reasoning for a Two-State Solution

Balancing Aspirations: Advocates argue against subordinating one group’s aspirations to another’s vision.
Jewish Minority: A single state would diminish Jews to a minority, potentially compromising their aspirations.

Way Forward

India’s Perspective: India believes that a negotiated two-state solution is essential for long-term peace in Israel and Palestine.
Establishment of a Palestinian State: India supports the establishment of a sovereign, independent, and viable State of Palestine within recognized borders.

Conclusion

Understanding the Israel-Palestine conflict and the significance of a two-state solution is crucial for achieving lasting peace in the region.
By addressing the challenges and considering the aspirations of both Israelis and Palestinians, a negotiated settlement can lead to a sovereign and independent Palestine living alongside Israel.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Operation Kaveri to evacuate stranded citizens from Sudan

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Op Kaveri

Mains level: Not Much

kaveri

India has launched “Operation Kaveri” to evacuate its citizens from war-torn Sudan.

What is Operation Kaveri?

It is the recent series of evacuations held by India over the last few years to rescue its nationals in crisis-hit countries. India rescued its nationals last year from war-hit Ukraine and Afghanistan.
The operation was launched in response to the conflict and breakdown of essential services in Sudan that had brought the country to a standstill.
India has positioned two transport aircraft of the IAF in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah and a naval ship at a key port in Sudan as part of its contingency plans to evacuate its stranded nationals.

Behind the name ‘Kaveri’

The choice of naming this operation as ‘Operation Kaveri’ has a lot of significance.
Kaveri is one of the major Indian rivers flowing through the southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
The river is sacred to the people of the region and is worshipped as the Goddess Kaveriamma (mother Kaveri).
Rivers reach their destination irrespective of barriers. It’s like a mother who will ensure she will bring her children back to safety.

About Sudan

kaveri sudan

Sudan is a country located in North Africa, bordered by Egypt to the north, Libya to the northwest, Chad to the west, the Central African Republic to the southwest, South Sudan to the south, Ethiopia to the southeast, and Eritrea to the east.
It is the third-largest country in Africa and has a diverse population of around 43 million people.
According to the World Bank, around 46% of the population lives below the poverty line, and many Sudanese people struggle to access basic services such as healthcare, education, and clean water.

What is the crisis all about?

Sudan is facing a crisis due to fighting between two rival military factions.
The conflict involves the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The fighting began in April 2022 after tensions rose following the coup that saw the two factions topple a civilian government in October 2021.
The conflict began when an internationally-backed plan to launch a new transition with civilian parties was floated.
Under the plan, both the army and the RSF had to cede power, but two issues were contentious: the formal placing of the army under civilian oversight and the timetable for the RSF to be integrated into the regular armed forces.

Global Implications of the Conflict

The volatile region, which borders the Red Sea, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa, could be destabilized if the fighting continues.
The conflict in Sudan has the potential to cause a refugee crisis, with people fleeing the country to escape the violence and instability.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Israel-Palestinian violence on West Bank soars

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: West Bank, Gaza

Mains level: Israel-Palestine Issue

west bank

US has urged Israel and the Palestinians to ease tensions amid a spike in violence that has put the West Bank region on edge.

Where is West Bank?

The West Bank is a landlocked territory near the coast of the Mediterranean in Western Asia that forms the main bulk of the Palestinian territories.
It is bordered by Jordan and the Dead Sea to the east and by Israel to the south, west, and north.

Point of discussion: Anti-Semitism

Anti-Semitism (hatred against Jews) is an officially stated policy of many theocratic countries (created by divine orders of religion).
This includes entire Arab world, the self-proclaimed caliphate ‘Turkiye’ and even Pakistan.
Jews, the micro-minority religion of the world were denied access to their homeland.

What is the Israel-Palestine Conflict?

The land to which Jews and Palestinians lay claim to was under the Ottoman Empire and then the British Empire in early 20th century.
Palestinian people —the Arab people from the same area— want to have a state by the name of Palestine in that area.
The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is over who gets what land and how it’s controlled.
Jews fleeing the persecution in Europe at the time wanted to establish a Jewish state on the land which they believe to be their ancient homeland.
The Arab at the time resisted, saying the land was theirs. The land at the time was called Palestine.
In 1917’s Balfour Declaration, the United Kingdom declared its support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine.
Arabs resisted it which led to violence.

Jews into West Bank: Arab hinterland in Israel

Some 75,000 Jews migrated to Palestine from 1922-26 and some 60,000 Jews emigrated in 1935, according to a history published by the University of Central Arkansas.
It adds that Palestinian Arabs demanded the UK to halt Jewish emigration, but the UK ignored such calls. There were violent incidents, leading to deaths of some 500 people.
In 1923, the British Mandate for Palestine came into effect.
The document was issued by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations (UN).
The mandate gave the UK the responsibility for creating a Jewish national homeland in the region.
In 1936, the UK government recommended the partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.

How did the issue escalate?

In 1947, Britain referred the issue of Palestine to the UN, which came up with a partition plan.
It put up two proposals. One, two separate states joined economically —the majority proposal— and, two, a single bi-national state made up of autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas, the minority proposal.
The Jewish community approved of the first of these proposals, while the Arabs opposed them both.

Israel’s independence

In May 1948, Israel declared its independence. This was eye-pricking development for Arabs.
The Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt invaded the newly-declared country immediately.
When the war ended, Israel gained some territory formerly granted to Palestinian Arabs under the UN resolution in 1947.
It also retained control over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank respectively.

Resolving the conflict

Ans. Two-state solution

The two-state solution refers to an arrangement where Israeli and Palestinian states co-exist in the region.
However, such a solution has not materialised over the decades.
As outlined in the beginning and in the briefly explained roots of the conflict, the two-state solution means two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians.

Why it hasn’t worked out?

There are four main reasons why the two-state solution has not materialized by now:

[1] Borders

There is no consensus as to how to draw the lines dividing the two proposed states.
Many people say borders should have pre-1967 lines.
In 1967 Israeli-Arab war, Israel captured Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem, and Golan Heights.
Israel is not willing to give up these gains. It returned Sinai to Egypt in 1982.
Moreover, there is the question of Israeli settlements in West Bank.

[2] Question of Jerusalem

Both Israel and Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital and call it central to their religion and culture.
The two-state solution typically calls for dividing it into an Israeli West and a Palestinian East, but it is not easy to draw the line — Jewish, Muslim and Christian holy sites are on top of one another.
Israel has declared Jerusalem its ‘undivided capital’, effectively annexing its eastern half, and has built up construction that entrenches Israeli control of the city.

[3] Refugees

A large number of Palestinians had to flee in the 1948 War.
They and their descendants —numbering at 5 million— demand a right to return. Israel rejects this.
The return of these people would end the demographic majority of Jews, ending the idea of Israel that’s both democratic and Jewish.

[4] Security

Security concerns are also central to Israel as it’s constantly harassed by terrorist group Hamas that controls Gaza Strip.
Hamas and other Islamist group in Gaza launch rockets into Israel time-to-time.
Moreover, there are also concerns of Palestinians’ attack inside Israel.
This year in March-April, at least 18 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks inside Israel.
A total of 27 Palestinians were also killed in the period, including those who carried out attacks inside Israel. Palestinians too have their concerns.
For Palestinians, security means an end to foreign military occupation.

Why the two-state solution is needed?

Besides fulfilling the basic desire of both Jews and Arabs of their own states, supporters of two-state solutions say it must be backed because its alternatives are simply not workable.
A single state merging Israel, West Bank, and Gaza would reduce Jews to a minority.
At the same time, in such a state, Jews would be a significant minority which would mean that the Arab majority would be miffed.

Moral reasoning for a two-state solution

It says that the aspirations of one person should not be overridden for others’ aspirations.
It’s a struggle for collective rights between two distinct groups of people.
Jews are the global micro-minority with a very small piece of land to exist.
Depriving Israeli Jews of a Jewish state or Palestinians of a Palestinian state would represent a subordination of one group’s aspirations to someone else’s vision.

Way forward

India opines that long-term peace in Israel and Palestine can be achieved only through a negotiated two-State solution leading.
This can be done with the establishment of a sovereign, independent and viable State of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Israel and Lebanon reach an Agreement on Maritime Border

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Israeli region for mapping

Mains level: Not Much

israel

Israel has reached a US-brokered agreement with Lebanon to settle their long-disputed maritime border. This has been seen as a historic deal.

Israel-Lebanon Boundary Issue

The draft agreement aims to settle Israel and Lebanon’s competing claims over offshore gas fields in the region.
A major source of friction was the Karish gas field, which Israel insisted fell entirely within its waters and was not a subject of negotiation.
The issue is a little over a decade old, after the two countries declared overlapping boundaries in 2011 in the Mediterranean Sea.
Since both countries have been technically at war, the United Nations was asked to mediate.
The issue gained significance after Israel discovered two gas fields off its coast a decade ago, which experts had believed could help turn it into an energy exporter.

Key terms of the Agreement

The agreement seeks to resolve a territorial dispute in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, in an area that Lebanon wants to explore for natural gas.
The gas field in question is located on the maritime boundary between the two countries and this agreement would allow both countries to get royalties from the gas.
It also sets a border between the maritime waters of Lebanon and Israel for the first time.

Why is this agreement signed?

Averting terror threats: The agreement is expected to avert the immediate threat of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, after fears of escalation if negotiations fell apart.
Energy exploitation: The agreement will create new sources of energy and income for both countries, particularly important for Lebanon, which is facing a crippling energy and financial crises.
Alternative energy for Europe: It could also have a potentially wider impact: it would likely provide Europe with a potential new source of gas amid energy shortages caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

What the agreement does not address?

Ans. Blue Line Issue

The agreement does not touch on the shared land border between Israel and Lebanon, which is still disputed, but where both countries are committed to a ceasefire.
This border is also called the Blue Line, a boundary that was drawn up by the UN after Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000.
This land border is currently patrolled by the United Nations forces.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Israel vs. Palestine Row over Gaza

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: West Bank, Gaza

Mains level: Israel-Palestine Issue

India has termed Gaza violence as grave concern and called for immediate resumption of talk between Israel and Palestine.

Here we explain the roots of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the two-state solution and why it has not materialized.

What is the Israel-Palestine conflict?

The land to which Jews and Palestinians lay claim to was under the Ottoman Empire and then the British Empire in early 20th century.
Palestinian people —the Arab people from the same area— want to have a state by the name of Palestine in that area.
The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is over who gets what land and how it’s controlled.
Jews fleeing the persecution in Europe at the time wanted to establish a Jewish state on the land which they believe to be their ancient homeland.
The Arab at the time resisted, saying the land was theirs.
The land at the time was called Palestine.
In 1917’s Balfour Declaration, the United Kingdom declared its support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine.
Arabs resisted it which led to violence.

When did the migration begin?

Some 75,000 Jews migrated to Palestine from1922-26 and some 60,000 Jews emigrated in 1935, according to a history published by the University of Central Arkansas.
It adds that Palestinian Arabs demanded the UK to halt Jewish emigration, but the UK ignored such calls. There were violent incidents, leading to deaths of some 500 people.
In 1923, the British Mandate for Palestine came into effect.
The document was issued by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations (UN).
The Mandate gave the UK the responsibility for creating a Jewish national homeland in the region.
In 1936, the UK government, recommended the partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.

Issue at the UN

In 1947, Britain referred the issue of Palestine to the UN, which came up with a partition plan.
It put up two proposals. One, two separate states joined economically —the majority proposal— and, two, a single bi-national state made up of autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas, the minority proposal.
The Jewish community approved of the first of these proposals, while the Arabs opposed them both.

Israel declares independence

In May 1948, Israel declared its independence.
The Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt invaded the newly-declared country immediately.
When the war ended, Israel gained some territory formerly granted to Palestinian Arabs under the UN resolution in 1947.
It also retained control over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank respectively.

The two-state solution and why it hasn’t worked out

The two-state solution refers to an arrangement where Israeli and Palestinian states co-exist in the region.
However, such a solution has not materialised over the decades.
As outlined in the beginning and in the briefly explained roots of the conflict, the two-state solution means two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians.

There are four main reasons why the two-state solution has not materialized by now:

[1] Borders

There is no consensus as to how to draw the lines dividing the two proposed states.
Many people say borders should have pre-1967 lines.
In 1967 Israeli-Arab war, Israel captured Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem, and Golan Heights.
Israel is not willing to give up these gains. It returned Sinai to Egypt in 1982.
Moreover, there is the question of Israeli settlements in West Bank.

[2] Question of Jerusalem

Both Israel and Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital and call it central to their religion and culture.
The two-state solution typically calls for dividing it into an Israeli West and a Palestinian East, but it is not easy to draw the line — Jewish, Muslim and Christian holy sites are on top of one another.
Israel has declared Jerusalem its ‘undivided capital’, effectively annexing its eastern half, and has built up construction that entrenches Israeli control of the city.

[3] Refugees

A large number of Palestinians had to flee in the 1948 War.
They and their descendants —numbering at 5 million— demand a right to return. Israel rejects this.
The return of these people would end the demographic majority of Jews, ending the idea of Israel that’s both democratic and Jewish.

[4] Security

Security concerns are also central to Israel as it’s constantly harassed by terrorist group Hamas that controls Gaza Strip.
Hamas and other Islamist group in Gaza launch rockets into Israel time-to-time.
Moreover, there are also concerns of Palestinians’ attack inside Israel.
This year in March-April, at least 18 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks inside Israel.
A total of 27 Palestinians were also killed in the period, including those who carried out attacks inside Israel. Palestinians too have their concerns.
For Palestinians, security means an end to foreign military occupation.

Why the two-state solution is needed?

Besides fulfilling the basic desire of both Jews and Arabs of their own states, supporters of two-state solutions say it must be backed because its alternatives are simply not workable.
A single state merging Israel, West Bank, and Gaza would reduce Jews to a minority.
At the same time, in such a state, Jews would be a significant minority which would mean that the Arab majority would be miffed.

Moral reasoning too for a two-state solution

It says that the aspirations of one person should not be overridden for others’ aspirations.
It’s a struggle for collective rights between two distinct groups of people.
Jews are the global micro-minority with a very small piece of land to exist.
Depriving Israeli Jews of a Jewish state or Palestinians of a Palestinian state would represent a subordination of one group’s aspirations to someone else’s vision.

Way forward

India opines that long-term peace in Israel and Palestine can be achieved only through a negotiated two-State solution leading.
This can be done with the establishment of a sovereign, independent and viable State of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Places in news: Aegean Islands

India Mapping | Trivia | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Aegean Sea

Mains level: NA

Turkey has warned Greece to demilitarise islands in the Aegean Sea.

What is the news?

Turkey says Greece has been building a military presence in violation of treaties that guarantee the unarmed status of the Aegean islands.
It argues the islands were ceded to Greece on the condition they remained demilitarized.

Where is the Aegean Sea?

The Aegean Sea has a surface area of about 215,000 km2 and a depth of 3,544 m at the deepest end.
It has a maximum length of about 700 km and a width of 400 km.
The Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits connect the Aegean Sea to the Black Sea and the Marmara Sea respectively.
The Aegean is subdivided into the Myrtoan Sea and the Thracian Sea and lies on the African and Eurasian tectonic plates’ collision path.

Control of the region

The sea is situated between the Anatolia and Balkan peninsulas and lies between Turkey and Greece.
Nine out of 12 of Greece’s administrative regions border the sea.
Turkish provinces, such as Balikesir, Canakkale, Edirne, and Izmir, borders the Aegean to the east.
The Aegean Sea is a source of dispute and controversy between Turkey and Greece, affecting their relationship since the 1970s.

What is the dispute?

Greece and Turkey are NATO allies.
However they have a history of disputes over a range of issues, including mineral exploration in the eastern Mediterranean and rival claims in the Aegean Sea.
Greece maintains Turkey has deliberately misinterpreted the treaties and says it has legal grounds to defend itself following hostile actions by Ankara.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Crisis at the Belarus-Poland Border

| International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Not much

Mains level: Global illegal migrants crisis

Thousands of migrants have flocked to Belarus’ border with Poland, hoping to get to Western Europe.

Background of the crisis

Belarus was rocked by months of massive protests following the August 2020 election that gave authoritarian President Lukashenko a sixth term in office.
The opposition and the West rejected the result.
Belarusian authorities responded to the demonstrations with a fierce crackdown that saw more than 35,000 people arrested and thousands beaten by police.
The European Union and the US reacted by imposing sanctions on Lukashenko’s government.

Immediate trigger

The restrictions were toughened after an incident when a passenger jet flying from Greece to Lithuania was diverted by Belarus to Minsk, where authorities arrested a dissident journalist.
The EU called it air piracy and barred Belarusian carriers from its skies.
It cut imports of the country’s top commodities, including petroleum products and potash, an ingredient in fertilizer.

Infused by migration

The EU sanctions deprived Lukashenko government of funds needed to contain flows of migrants.
Planes carrying migrants from Iraq, Syria and other countries began arriving in Belarus, and they soon headed for the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

Rising tensions

Belarus is estimated to host between 5,000 and 20,000 migrants from the Middle East and Africa.
Many have run out of money and grown increasingly desperate as the winter approaches.
Belarusian residents are uneasy about their presence, raising pressure on the authorities to act.

Reservations by EU

The EU accused Lukashenko of using the migrants as pawns in a “hybrid attack” against the 27-nation bloc in retaliation for the sanctions.
Lukashenko denies the flow of migrants and said the EU is violating migrants’ rights by denying them safe passage.

What has been the response by EU countries?

Lithuania introduced a state of emergency to deal with small groups of migrants and strengthen its border with Belarus.
It set up tent camps to accommodate the growing number of migrants.
Polish authorities prevented hundreds of attempts by migrants to cross reporting many deaths.
The EU has made a strong show of solidarity with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

What is Russia’s role?

Belarus has received strong support from its main ally, Russia, which has helped rise Lukashenko’s government with loans and political support.
Russia considers the migrant flows resulting from the US-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Western-backed Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.
It challenged the EU to offer financial assistance to Belarus to deal with the influx.
At the same time, the Kremlin angrily rejected Poland’s claim that Russia bears responsibility for the crisis.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Jordan Crisis and its significance for the Arab Region

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Not Much

Mains level: Geopolitics in Arabian Peninsula

The royal household in Jordan has recently seen intense drama, with the King’s popular half-brother and former crown prince was placed under de facto house arrest.

Study the map; especially, the Israel-Jordan border and Dead Sea.

Signs of a Coup

Jordanian government statements have has stated that there had been an attempted coup to destabilize the country, mentioning unnamed “foreign entities” involved in the plot.
The events have thus put a spotlight on Jordan’s unique position as one of the most stable countries in the Arab world, and given rise to questions about who could stand to benefit from the alleged coup.

Jordan’s stability matters

Jordan, which this year celebrates 100 years since its creation after World War I, has for decades remained stable in a part of the world that is prone to conflict and political uncertainty.
For its allies in the West and in the Gulf, Jordan is a strategic partner which can be relied upon for furthering political objectives in the region, which includes war-torn Syria and Iraq as well as conflict-prone Israel and Palestine.
The support of Jordanian intelligence has proven critically important in the fight against terrorism.
Though impoverished, the country of about a crore people has served as a haven for refugees in the conflict-ridden region.

The asylum giver

After the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948 and 1967, Jordan received waves of refugees, to the point that about half of Jordan’s population today is made up of Palestinians.
It has also welcomed refugees after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, and currently hosts over 10 lakh from Syria, where a protracted civil war is going on.
Jordan is also considered important to any future peace deal between Israel and Palestine.

How does Jordan get along with regional powers?

(1) West

Traditionally, Jordan has maintained close relations with the US, and the fellow Sunni Muslim powers of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which together stand against Shia Iran.
It also has diplomatic relations with Israel, and the two countries have been bound by a peace treaty since 1994.

(2) Within Gulf

In recent years, however, Jordan’s relations with the Saudis and UAE have seen ups and downs.
It has been particularly since the rise of their respective crown prince’s Mohammed bin Salman (known by initials MBS) and Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ).
One of the points of friction was Saudi-UAE’s blockade of Qatar in 2017.
It caused further consternation in Saudi and Emirati circles by maintaining strong ties with Turkey.

(3) Ties with Israel

Jordan’s role as the region’s interlocutor has also diminished since last year, after the UAE normalized relations with Israel.

What have the powers said of the alleged coup?

Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expressed full support for King Abdullah. The US has called the ruler a “key partner”.
To drive home the point, Saudi Arabia sent its foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, to Jordan’s capital Amman to express complete solidarity with Jordan’s King and his government.
Saudi and the UAE have little to gain by destabilizing Jordan, a country that has long served as a dependable ally.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Morocco to normalize ties with Israel

| International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Middle Easet

Mains level: The gulf and anti-semitism

Morocco has become the fourth Arab nation this year to recognise Israel after interventions by the US.

Must read:

Israel and Morocco

After the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, Morocco is the fourth Arab State since August to commit to establishing diplomatic relations with the Jewish State.
Morocco and Israel had respectively maintained liaison offices in Tel Aviv and Rabat in the 1990s, before closing them in 2000.
Israeli PM Netanyahu anticipated direct flights between the two countries soon.
Palestinian officials condemned the agreement, saying it encouraged Israel’s denial of their rights.

For the sake of Western Sahara

The White House said the US would recognise Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara as part of the deal with Israel.
The US recognised Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory.
A former Spanish colony, it was annexed by Morocco in 1975.
Since then it has been the subject of a long-running territorial dispute between Morocco and its indigenous Saharawi people.
Morocco says it has always been part of its territory, while the African Union recognizes it as an independent state.
A 16-year-long insurgency ended with an UN-brokered truce in 1991 and the promise of a referendum on independence, which has yet to take place.

Ground realities

The latest move by the Trump administration will not necessarily have an immediate impact on the ground because the dispute is seen as greater than the whims of the American president.
However, Trump’s backing of Morocco’s claim to sovereignty over Western Sahara is a big deal because it diminishes the hope of a people who have aspired for the independence of that territory for decades.
The UN is still mandated to oversee a referendum for the independence of Western Sahara – although this hasn’t materialized since 1991.

Why Arab countries are normalizing their ties with Israel?

Economics: The Gulf States see opportunities for trade and more. The deal helps the ambitious gulf, who has built themselves into military power as well as a place to do business.
Common enemy: The UAE has used its already well-equipped armed forces in Libya and Yemen. But its most serious potential enemy is Iran, just on the other side of the Gulf.
For the Iron wall: Normalizing its relations with gulf is a genuine achievement for the Israelis who is a believer in the strategy first described in the 1920s of an “Iron Wall” between the Jewish state and the Arabs.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Killing of Iranian nuclear scientist and its implications

| International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: JCPOA

Mains level: Paper 2- Peace and stability in the middle east

The assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientist has implication for the future of JCPOA and the peace and the stability of the region. The article explains why.

Context

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian scientist who led Iran’s nuclear weapons programme until it was disbanded, was assassinated last week.

JCPOA and U.S. Presidential election’s link with the

Assassinations in which Israeli hands were suspected had stopped after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed.
The U.S. withdrew from the agreement when Trump became the U.S. President.
In retaliation of the withdrawal, Iran began enriching uranium and stockpiling it beyond JCPOA limits.
With that, the strategy of targeted assassinations seems to be back.
This strategy has assumed urgency with the election of Joe Biden in the U.S., who has expressed his desire to return to the JCPOA.

Understanding the Israel link

Israel government is apprehensive that Mr. Biden will imperil Israel’s nuclear monopoly in West Asia.
The assassination of Fakhrizadeh appears to be part of a larger Israeli plan in conjunction with Saudi Arabia to force the U.S. into taking military action against Iran.
An Israeli-Saudi nexus on this issue, when combined with President Trump’s, could culminate in a major military strike on Iran before he leaves office.

Win-win situation for Israel

If the Iranian government launches revenge attacks Mr. Netanyahu would be able to persuade the U.S. to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
If Iran shows restraint, Israel would have shown up the Iranian regime as weak while augmenting anti-American feelings in the country.
That anti-American feeling would make it difficult for the Biden administration to resume negotiations with Tehran on reviving JCPOA.

Conclusion

The fallout of the assassination, while benefiting Israel, will add to the instability in the region.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Armenia, Azerbaijan agree on peace deal

India Mapping | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Nagorno-Karabakh region

Mains level: Usual crisis in the middle east and caucasus region

Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a deal with Russia to end fierce clashes over Nagorno-Karabakh after a string of Azerbaijani victories in its fight to retake the disputed region.

Ending up the bloodshed

During the course of the conflict, over 1200 have lost their lives as per the Nagorno-Karabakh authorities, while thousands have been displaced.
Since the conflict started in September, multiple ceasefire agreements have been signed between the two sides, but none so far have been successful.
The deal is meant to end the conflict between the two nations.
Russia’s role in the conflict has been somewhat opaque since it supplies arms to both countries and is in a military alliance with Armenia called the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.

What is the Nagorno-Karabakh region?

Straddling western Asia and Eastern Europe, Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but most of the region is controlled by Armenian separatists.
It has been part of Azerbaijan territory since the Soviet era.
When the Soviet Union began to collapse in the late 1980s, Armenia’s regional parliament voted for the region’s transfer to Armenia; the Soviet authorities turned down the demand.
Years of clashes followed between Azerbaijan forces and Armenian separatists.
The violence lasted into the 1990s, leaving tens and thousands dead and displacing hundreds of thousands.
In 1994, Russia brokered a ceasefire, by which time ethnic Armenians had taken control of the region.

Consider this PYQ:

Q.The area is known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to: (CSP 2015)

a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa

Who controls it?

While the area remains in Azerbaijan, it is today governed by separatist Armenians who have declared it a republic called the “Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast”.
While the Armenian government does not recognise Nagorno-Karabakh as independent, it supports the region politically and militarily.

Ethnicity and the conflict

Ethnic tensions from decades ago have a crucial role in the dispute.
While the Azeris claim that the disputed region was under their control in known history, Armenians maintain that Karabakh was a part of the Armenian kingdom.
At present, the disputed region consists of a majority Armenian Christian population, even though it is internationally recognised as a part of Muslim-majority Azerbaijan.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

What’s behind the Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes?

Prelims Only | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: International Institutions

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Causacus region mapping

Mains level: Usual crisis in the middle east and caucasus region

Fresh clashes erupted on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, threatening to push the countries back to war 26 years after a ceasefire was reached.

Try this PYQ:

Q.Turkey is located between-

(a) The Black Sea and Caspian Sea

(b) The Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea

(c) Gulf of Suez and the Mediterranean Sea

(d) Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea

The conflict

The largely mountainous and forested Nagorno-Karabakh, home for some 150,000 people, is at the centre of the conflict.
Nagorno-Karabakh is located within Azerbaijan but is populated, mostly, by those of Armenian ethnicity (and mostly Christian compared to the Shia Muslim majority Azerbaijan).
The conflict can be traced back to the pre-Soviet era when the region was at the meeting point of Ottoman, Russian and the Persian empires.

A legacy of soviet era

Once Azerbaijan and Armenia became Soviet Republics in 1921, Moscow gave Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan but offered autonomy to the contested region.
In the 1980s, when the Soviet power was receding, separatist currents picked up in Nagorno-Karabakh.
In 1988, the national assembly voted to dissolve the region’s autonomous status and join Armenia.
But Baku suppressed such calls, which led to a military conflict.
When Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the clashes led to an open war in which tens of thousands of people were killed.
The war lasted till 1994 when both sides reached a ceasefire (they are yet to sign a peace treaty and the border is not clearly demarcated).

Issue over control

By that time, Armenia had taken control of Nagorno-Karabakh and handed it to Armenian rebels. The rebels have declared independence, but have not won recognition from any country.
The region is still treated as a part of Azerbaijan by the international community, and Baku wants to take it back.

What is the strategic significance of the region?

The energy-rich Azerbaijan has built several gas and oil pipelines across the Caucasus (the region between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea) to Turkey and Europe.
This includes the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (with a capacity of transporting 1.2 billion barrels a day), the Western Route Export oil pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline and the South Caucasus gas pipeline.
Some of these pipelines pass close to the conflict zone (within 16 km of the border). In an open war between the two countries, the pipelines could be targeted, which would impact energy supplies.

What’s Turkey’s role?

Turkey has historically supported Azerbaijan and has had a troublesome relationship with Armenia.
In the 1990s, during the war, Turkey closed its border with Armenia and it has no diplomatic relations with the country.
The main point of contention between the two was Ankara’s refusal to recognise the 1915 Armenian genocide in which the Ottomans killed some 1.5 million Armenians.
On the other end, the Azeris and Turks share strong cultural and historical links. Azerbaijanis are a Turkic ethnic group and their language is from the Turkic family.

Where does Russia stand?

Moscow sees the Caucasus and Central Asian region as its backyard. But the current clashes put President Vladimir Putin in a difficult spot.
Russia enjoys good ties with both Azerbaijan and Armenia and supplies weapons to both.
But Armenia is more dependent on Russia than the energy-rich, ambitious Azerbaijan. Russia also has a military base in Armenia.
But Moscow, at least publicly, is trying to strike a balance between the two. Like in the 1990s, its best interest would be in mediating a ceasefire between the warring sides.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Turkey’s Maritime Disputes

Prelims Only | Trivia | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Causacus region mapping

Mains level: Not Much

Turkish President Erdogan has asserted that his country will take whatever belongs to it in the Mediterranean, as well as Aegean and the Black Sea.

Try this PYQ:

Q.Turkey is located between

(a) The Black Sea and Caspian Sea

(b) The Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea

(c) Gulf of Suez and the Mediterranean Sea

(d) Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea

Assertion over the Mediterranean

Greece and Turkey have been locked in a dispute over control of eastern Mediterranean waters.
They are at odds over the rights to potential hydrocarbon resources, based on conflicting claims over the extent of their continental shelves.
The Turkish navy will hold the shooting exercises in the eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Iskenderun, northeast of Cyprus.
Cyprus was divided in 1974 following a Turkish invasion triggered by a Greek-inspired coup.
Turkey recognizes the Turkish-populated north of Cyprus as a separate state, which is not recognised by other countries.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Why has the Israel-UAE pact unsettled Palestine and Iran?

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: West Bank and its location

Mains level: Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza

Last week Mr Trump has announced that Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had reached a peace agreement. Many countries, including the European powers and India, have welcomed it, while the Palestinian leadership, as well as Turkey and Iran, have lashed out at the UAE.

The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question.

Consider this PYQ:

Q. The area is known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to: (CSP 2015)

a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa

The Israel-UAE Pact

The UAE and Israel would establish formal diplomatic relations and in exchange, Israel would suspend its plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank.
Israeli PM Netanyahu had earlier vowed to annex the Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
But now, as part of the agreement, Israel “will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas” of the West Bank and “focus its efforts on expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world”.

A timeline of Israel-Arab Conflict

Arab-Israeli ties have historically been conflict-ridden.

Arab countries, including Egypt, Transjordan, Syria and Iraq, fought their first war with Israel in 1948 after the formation of the state of Israel was announced.
The war ended with Israel capturing more territories, including West Jerusalem than what the UN Partition Plan originally proposed for a Jewish state.
After that, Israel and Arab states fought three more major wars — the 1956 Suez conflict, the 1967 Six-Day War and the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
After the 1967 war in which Israel captured the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip from Egypt, East Jerusalem and the West Bank from Jordan and the Golan Heights from Syria.
Arab countries convened in Khartoum and declared their famous three “‘Nos’ — no peace with Israel, no talks with Israel and no recognition of Israel.
But it did not last long. After the death of Egypt President Gamal Abdel Nasser, his successor Anwar Sadat started making plans to get Sinai back from Israel.
His efforts, coupled with American pressure on Israel, led to the Camp David Accords of 1978 with Israel’s withdrawal.

Significance of the deal

It’s a landmark agreement given that the UAE is only the third Arab country and the first in the Gulf region to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.
In 1994, Jordan became the second Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel.
The UAE-Israel agreement comes after 26 years. If more countries in the Gulf follow the UAE’s lead, it would open a new chapter in Arab-Israel ties.

Why did the UAE sign the agreement?

The old enmity between Arab countries and Israel has dissipated.
The Sunni Arab kingdoms in the Gulf region such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE had developed backroom contacts with Israel over the past several years.
One of the major factors that brought them closer has been their shared antipathy towards Iran.
Arab countries have signalled that they are ready to live with Israel’s occupation of Palestine.

What do Arab countries want from Israel?

Arab countries expect a major change in the status quo on West Bank annexation which would put Israel under political and diplomatic pressure.
The UAE-Israel agreement has averted that outcome.
If a Democratic Party (Trump’s opposition and Obama’s allegiance) comes to power and restores the Iran deal, both the Israeli and the Arab blocs in West Asia would come under pressure to live with an empowered Iran.
A formal agreement and enhanced security and economic ties make the Arab and Israeli sides better prepared to face such a situation.
So there is a convergence of interests for the UAE, Israel and the U.S. to come together in the region.

Where does it leave the Palestinians?

Unlike the past two Arab-Israeli peace agreements, Palestinians do not figure prominently in the current one.
In the present UAE-Israel deal, Israel has not made any actual concession to the Palestinians.
The Palestinians are understandably upset. They called the UAE’s decision “treason”.

Geopolitical implications of the deal

The agreement could fast-track the changes that are already underway in the region.
The Saudi bloc, consisting of Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain and others, see their interests being aligned with that of the U.S. and Israel and their support for Palestine, which Arab powers had historically upheld.
Turkey and Iran now emerge as the strongest supporters of the Palestinians in the Muslim world.
This tripolar contest is already at work in West Asia. The UAE-Israel thaw could sharpen it further.

Also read:

West Bank Annexation Plan

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The Crisis In The Middle East

UAE, Israel reach agreement to establish diplomatic ties

| International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: West Bank and its location

Mains level: Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza

The United Arab Emirates and Israel have agreed to establish full diplomatic ties as part of a deal to halt the annexation of occupied land sought by the Palestinians for their future state.

What is the deal?

The deal halts Israeli annexation plans, the Palestinians have repeatedly urged Arab governments not to normalize ties with Israel until a peace agreement establishing an independent Palestinian state is reached.

Significance

The announcement makes the UAE the first Gulf Arab state to do so and only the third Arab nation to have active diplomatic ties to Israel.
For Israel, the announcement comes after years of boasting by Israeli PM Netanyahu that his government enjoys closer ties to Arab nations than publicly acknowledged.

West Bank and its annexation plan

The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 per cent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

West Bank Annexation Plan

| International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: West Bank and its location

Mains level: Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that the Israeli leader’s plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank would not start on the original target date as the British PM made an extraordinary appeal to Israel to call off the plan.

The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question.

Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:

Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:

a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa

Must read:

[Burning Issue] West Asia Peace Plan

Where is West Bank Located?

The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 per cent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Israel swears in ‘Unity Government’

| International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: West Bank and its location

Mains level: Unity Government

Israel’s Parliament swore in its new unity government led by PM Netanyahu and his former rival Benny Gantz, ending the longest political crisis in their nation’s history.

The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question. Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:

Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:

a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa

What is a Unity Government?

A national unity government, government of national unity (GNU), or national union government is a broad coalition government consisting of all parties (or all major parties) in the legislature.
Such a coalition is usually formed during a time of war or another national emergency.
A general coalition government is a form of government in which political parties cooperate, reducing the dominance of any one party within that “coalition”.

Practice question for mains:

Q. Discuss the role and significance of Leader of Opposition and the Opposition Party and their constructive criticism in a Parliamentary form of government.

What is the Israeli deal?

Israel’s unity government starts work amid the coronavirus pandemic and after a political crisis that saw three inconclusive elections and left the country in political limbo for more than 500 days.
The coalition government was agreed last month between veteran right-wing leader Netanyahu and the centrist Gantz, a former army chief.
The incoming government has aimed to apply Israeli sovereignty over West Bank settlements.
The govt. now aims to push on with controversial plans to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank.

Significance

Netanyahu said that it’s time to apply the Israeli law and write another glorious chapter in the history of Zionism citing the issue of Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory.
Such a move is seen likely to cause international uproar and inflame tensions in the West Bank.
The region is home to nearly three million Palestinians and some 400,000 Israelis living in settlements considered illegal under international law.

Back2Basics

West Bank Annexation plans

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss plans to annex parts of the West Bank.

The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question. Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:

Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:

a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa

Where is West Bank Located?

The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 percent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.

Back2Basics: Gaza Strip

The Gaza Strip is a small boot-shaped territory along the Mediterranean coast between Egypt and Israel.
A couple of years later in 2007, Hamas, an anti-Israel military group, took over Gaza Strip. The militia group is often involved in violent clashes with the Israeli Defence Forces.
While Palestine has staked claim to both territories — West Bank and Gaza Strip — Israel’s objective has been to keep expanding Jewish settlements in these regions.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

West Bank Annexation plans by US

| International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Oslo Peace Accord, West Bank

Mains level: Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss plans to annex parts of the West Bank.

The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question. Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:

Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:

a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa

Where is West Bank Located?

The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 percent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.

Back2Basics: Gaza Strip

The Gaza Strip is a small boot-shaped territory along the Mediterranean coast between Egypt and Israel.
A couple of years later in 2007, Hamas, an anti-Israel military group, took over Gaza Strip. The militia group is often involved in violent clashes with the Israeli Defence Forces.
While Palestine has staked claim to both territories — West Bank and Gaza Strip — Israel’s objective has been to keep expanding Jewish settlements in these regions.

For complete details on Israel-Palestine conflict, kindly refer:

[Burning Issue] West Asia Peace Plan

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Location in news: Idlib Province

| International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Location of Idlib Province

Mains level: Usual turmoil in Syria

The nine-year-old war in Syria is currently raging in the northwestern province of Idlib, with rapidly escalating tensions between government forces of President Bashar al-Assad and the Turkish military.

Background

President’s Assad’s forces are backed by Russia, who are clashing with thousands of Turkish troops south of its border with Syria.
Turkey has closed the border and is trying to seal itself from waves of displaced refugees as Assad presses forth with a brutal campaign to take back Idlib.

Why is Idlib important?

Assad has been pushing to recapture Idlib, which, along with parts of neighbouring Hama, Latakia and Aleppo, are the last remaining strongholds of the rebel opposition and other groups that have been attempting to overthrow Assad since 2011.
At one point, the opposition held large parts of Syria under its control, but that changed after Assad, with Russian military support, slowly regained control over most of the country.
In 2015, Idlib province was overtaken by opposition forces.
Now, Syrian government forces are attempting to capture the strategic M4 and M5 national highways that connect Idlib, Aleppo and Damascus, the capital of the country.
Idlib skirts the two national highways and lies between Aleppo in the north and Damascus in the south.
It’s proximity to the Turkish border makes Idlib strategically important to the Syrian government.

Who controls Idlib now?

Since the province fell to opposition forces, there is no one group that controls Idlib, but rather, several separate factions.
International watchdogs say that the dominant faction in Idlib is the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a UN-designated terrorist organization set up in 2017, with links to al-Qaeda.
Also operating in Idlib is the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army, an armed opposition group. Included in the mix are the remnants of the Islamic State.
Watch groups say that other factions in Idlib strongly oppose the presence of IS fighters in the province.

Why is Idlib important for Turkey?

Idlib’s proximity to the Turkish border makes it not only important for the Syrian government, but also a cause of concern for Turkey.
Since the war started in Syria, thousands of displaced Syrians have sought refuge in Turkey over the years.
According to the latest known figures, Turkey presently hosts some 3.6 million refugees and is feeling the socio-economic and political strain of their presence in the country.
More conflict in Idlib would only serve to displace more people, pushing them towards the Turkish border.
Turkey has been witnessing a surge in hostility among its citizens towards refugees and a fresh wave of refugees will only exacerbate the situation.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Explained: West Asia Peace Plan

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: West Asia Peace Plan

Mains level: Palestine & Israel conflicts

With West Asia Peace plan US plans to revive the stalled two-state talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who had earlier spoken against the two-state solution, has accepted the Trump plan.

West Asia Peace Plan

The West Asia peace plan unveiled by U.S. President Trump seeks to give the Israelis what they have long wanted — an expansive state with Jerusalem as its “undivided capital” and tight security control over a future Palestinian state.

What’s the plan about?

The Trump plan seeks to address most of the contentious issues in the conflict such as the border of Israel, status of Palestinian refugees, Jewish settlements on the West Bank, land swap between Israel and Palestine, Israel’s security concerns and the status of the city of Jerusalem.
However US have proposed to almost all of these issues favour the Israeli positions.
For example, Israel would be allowed to annex the Jewish settlements on the West Bank as well as the Jordan Valley.
The Palestinian refugees, who were forced out from their homes during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war that followed the declaration of the state of Israel in the historic Palestine, would not be allowed to return.
They could move to the future Palestinian state, be integrated into the host countries or settled in other regional countries.

Jerusalem: The undivided Capital

Jerusalem, perhaps the most contentious issue, would be “the undivided capital” of Israel, with Palestine gaining its capital in the east of the city — beyond the security border Israel has already built.
In return, Israel would freeze further settlement activities on the West Bank for four years — the time for negotiations.

Land Swap

According to the Oslo Accords, the West Bank was divided into three areas and only one of them is under the direct control of the Palestinian Authority.
The plan proposes some land swap for the Israeli annexation of the West Bank Jewish settlements.
It seeks to enlarge Gaza and connect the strip with the West Bank through a tunnel.
The Arab towns in the southeast of Israel, which are close to Gaza, could become part of a future Palestinian state.

Curb on Hamas

During this period, the Palestinian Authority should dismiss its current complaints at the International Criminal Court against Israel and refrain itself from taking further actions.
It should also crack down on “terrorist” groups such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.

Investment Plans

US has also proposed $50 billion in investment over 10 years should Palestine accept the proposals.
In the final settlement, Palestine would get control over more land than what it currently controls.

Implications for Palestine

The Palestine position is backed by most of the world powers is the formation of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state based on the 1967 border.
It means the whole of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital including the Old City that houses Haram esh-Sharif, also known as Temple Mount, a holy site for both Muslims and Jews.
Issues like the right of return of the Palestinian refugees are to be settled in final negotiations.
But US has effectively rejected the Palestinian claims outright and asked them to make more compromises.
He seeks to give Jerusalem and about 30% of the West Bank to the Israelis and has denied the right of return of the Palestinian refugees.
And for this, the Palestinians should take action against militant groups, stop supporting Palestinian families of those jailed or killed by Israel and refrain itself from questioning the occupation in international fora.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

[op-ed snap]The U.S. is weakened by Soleimani’s killing

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Not much.

Mains level: Paper2 – International relations

Context

Targeted killing of powerful Iranian Major-General could have done more bad than good for the U.S.

Series of events after the assassination

The Iraqi parliament voted to expel the U.S. troops stationed in Iraq and deny them access to its airspace, land or water.
Pro-Iranian groups could attack across the region where thousands of U.S. troops and official personnel are stationed.
Soleimani’s assassination has awakened the deep strain of Iranian patriotism.
And Iran is not alone.
In Beirut, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called Soleimani the “glue that held the Resistance Axis together”.
The U.S threat of striking “52 Iranian sites” did not win the U.S. any support on the international stage.
Even the Europeans, otherwise steadfast with the U.S. in these sorts of adventures, hesitated.
Arab League’s Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit expressed concern over the situation and asked for calm.
This is the same man who had, only a few weeks ago, accused Iran of sowing chaos in the region.
It is likely that China and Russia will table a resolution at the UN that calls for calm as well as criticises the U.S.
This will certainly be vetoed by the U.S.

Desperate and irrational policy

Till now the U.S. has not been able to extricate itself from its illegal war against Iraq.
That war provided a massive advantage to Iran not only in Iraq but also across the region.
This is what terrified two of the U.S.’s allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, both of whom pressured Washington to increase its threats against Iran.
S. create the conditions for the rise of the worst kind of violence in Iraq, and later Syria
It also weakened the strategic position of its allies.
No attempt by the U.S. to regain its authority has worked.
The U.S. policy against Iran and Iraq appear desperate and irrational.

Conclusion

The U.S recklessness has isolated it further and deepened anxieties amongst its increasingly isolated regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

[op-ed of the day]Bracing for global impact after Soleimani’s assassination

op-ed snap | International Relations | : Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Nothing much.

Mains level: Paper 2- International relations

Context

The recent targeted killing of Commander of Quds Forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) by the US raised the tension in the region to a new high level. The imminent blowback from Iran could have several consequences for the rest of the world including India.

Different from past killings

Though the U.S. has carried out many such targeted killings in the past but this case bears two important differences to the past killings.
Unlike Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr, Gen. Soleimani was a state actor.
Unlike the above mentioned two, he was not past his prime.

Roles played by Gen. Soleimani

He was the founder-commander of Iran’s Quds Force-formed for extra-territorial operations.
He enhanced Iran’s influence in the Arab countries by leveraging the disarray in the region.
Arab countries with a significant Shia population such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen came under Iranian influence.

What could be the fallouts

Tit-for-tat between Iran and the U.S. could easily go out of hand and precipitate into a major confrontation.
Both countries have domestic compulsions- there are elections due in both countries.
These compulsions limit options for both countries to low-intensity skirmishes.
The fact that the killing was carried on the Iraqi soil also assumes significance.
The incident could increase the problems in Iraq which is rocked by three months of youth protests against undue foreign interference by both Iran and the U.S.
The event is also likely to re-polarise the Iraqi society along sectarian lines.
In the worst-case scenario Iraq could turn into the new Syria.

Potential fallout for India

Global oil prices have already seen a 4% rise in within hours of the incident.
India has already faced difficulty in maintaining relations with both countries because of the U.S.-Iran cold war.
While we want to be on the right side of the U.S., our ties with Iran apart from being civilisational have their own geostrategic logic.
With conflict turning hot, its adverse impact on India could magnify.
High oil prices will definitely increase our import bill and increase difficulties in supplies.
Safety of an estimated 8 million expatriates in the Gulf may be affected.
Iran could influence the U.S.-Taliban peace process in Afghanistan which in turn increases India’s woes.
After Iran, India has a large number of Shia population and some of them could be radicalised due to the event.

Conclusion

The event, if turn into a wider conflict between the two countries, could have many consequences for India from soaring oil prices and maintaining the balance between the two countries to the safety of expatriates in the Gulf.

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The Crisis In The Middle East

Introduction

Why in the News

The Strategic Vision Behind IMEC:

The Geopolitical Context of 2023:

The Security Setback and Regional Volatility

Europe’s Changing Maritime Interests

Why IMEC Still Matters for India

Challenges and the Way Forward

Conclusion

PYQ Relevance

Introduction

What is the International Stabilisation Force (ISF)?

Why is the ISF Not Comparable to UN Peacekeeping?

Why is Implementation Difficult in Palestine?

What Lessons Do Historical Precedents Offer?

What Are the Broader Challenges in Trump’s Plan?

Conclusion

PYQ Relevance

Why in the News?

What is Wassenaar Arrangement?

Wassenaar Arrangement and Software:

Reform Needs:

Wassenaar Arrangement and India:

Introduction

Why is this development historic?

Why did the U.K., Australia, and Canada take this step?

What has been Israel’s reaction?

What role does history play in this debate?

How does this reshape global geopolitics?

Conclusion

PYQ Relevance

Why in the News?

About Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC):

Key Features of the IPC:

What is Famine and How is it Declared?

Why in the News?

About the International Criminal Court (ICC):

Jurisdiction and Reach of an ICC Warrant:

Why in the News?

About IMEC Project:

Impact of Gaza War:

Significance:

Why in the News?

How could a U.S.-Israel-Iran war impact India?

What is the difference between great power and super power?

How does the Iran-Israel conflict impact India’s great power status?

How does multipolarity guide India’s foreign policy?

Why is Iran vital to India’s energy and strategy?

How does India balance ties between major powers?

How can India promote peace in West Asia? (Way forward)

Mains PYQ:

Why in the News?

What are the fertiliser security risks for India amid geopolitical conflicts?

What lessons from the Russia-Ukraine crisis remain unaddressed?

Why should fertilisers be part of India’s national security planning?

What are the steps taken by the Indian government?

How can India build resilience in fertiliser supply chains? (Way forward)

Mains PYQ:

Why in the News?

Why is India’s neutrality no longer viable in the current global conflicts?

What are the threats posed by the China-Pakistan military alliance?

How has India’s Israel-Iran policy impacted its West Asia standing?

What are the reforms needed to prepare India for a two-front war? (Way forward)

Mains PYQ:

PYQ Relevance:

Why in the News?

What are the economic implications of the Israel-Iran conflict on India’s growth and inflation?

How has India reduced its vulnerability to oil price shocks amid West Asian tensions?

What are the key drivers of the recent oil price surge?

Who ensures safe oil transit through Hormuz?

What global actions can reduce related risks? (Way forward)

PYQ Relevance:

Why in the News?

Why did Israel launch a pre-emptive air war against Iran?

What impact has Israel’s offensive had on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and retaliatory capabilities?

How does the ongoing conflict affect regional security?

What is the role of global powers like the U.S.?

What are the diplomatic and military options available to Israel in its conflict with Iran?

Way forward: