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  • A tale of two bugs

    Context

    India needs to take TB at the same level of seriousness at which it is dealing with the Covid-19.

    Contrast and between the response

    • Tuberculosis in India: Indians will still have to contend with other deadly respiratory tract infections which spread via airborne transmission. We will still have to contend with one particular bug which kills millions of us and which has been around for millennia. Tuberculosis.
      • But all comparisons between COVID-19 and TB end with the superficial observation that they are both deadly respiratory tract infections.
    • Speedy tackling of COVID-19: COVID-19 began its march through humankind barely half a year ago and, in record time, scientists have identified the virus and hundreds of millions of dollars have been allocated to controlling its spread, developing vaccines (at last count, more than a dozen candidates) and testing medication regimens for those infected.
    • Waning of the epidemic: While the virus has spread to over 100 countries, the epidemic already shows signs of waning in the Asian countries where it hit first and hardest.

    Response to the TB

    • How long has the TB infected us? On the other hand, TB is as old as humanity itself, infecting us for at least 5,000 years.
      • The infecting agent, a bacterium, was identified way back in 1882, by Robert Koch, signalling one of the landmark discoveries which laid the foundation of modern medicine.
    • How was the response to TB? The subsequent response to this disease, which was infamously called the White Plague and was a leading cause of death globally at the start of the 20th century, is similar to what we see today for COVID-19, but played out over decades rather than months.
      • Measures taken: TB was made a notifiable disease, campaigns were launched to prohibit spitting and containment policies, including sequestering infected persons, were implemented.
    • The first vaccine was produced over a hundred years ago, and the first curative treatments available by the 1950s.
    • Divide between rich and poor in TB infections: TB was largely beaten in the rich world, not only because of these medical miracles but also thanks to the dramatic reduction in poverty and improvement in living standards.
      • There is compelling evidence that addressing these social determinants was even more impactful than medical interventions in the war against TB.
    • The disease of squalor: TB has always been, and this is even more true now than ever before, a disease of poverty and squalor. And no country is more affected than India.
    • Every TB statistic is grim:
      • We are home to 1 in 4 of the world’s TB patients.
      • Over 2.5 million Indians are infected.
      • In 2018, over 4,00,000 Indians died of the disease.
      • To put this in stark perspective, more people died of TB in India last week than the entire global death toll of COVID-19 to date.
      • Contrast with the response to COVID-19: Given our urgent, energetic and multifaceted response to the latter Covid-19, one is left wondering why we have failed so miserably for another bug, particularly one which has been around for so long, which has been exquisitely studied and characterised, which is preventable and treatable, and which most of the world has conquered.

    Why TB has not been given such attention?

    • It is because those who suffer from TB are not likely to be boarding international flights or passing through swanky airports to attend conferences.
    • It is because TB infects people in slower tides, slow enough for industries to replace the sick with healthier recruits without endangering the bottom line.
    • It is because TB does not threaten the turbines that keep the global economy throbbing.
    • It is because TB no longer poses a threat to rich and powerful countries.
    • It is because those who have TB live on the margins and have little political influence.
    • It is because TB control requires society to address the squalid environments, which shroud the daily lives of hundreds of millions of Indians.
    • It is because TB is a medieval scourge that reminds us of our shameful failure to realise a just, humane and dignified life for all our people.

    Conclusion

    If there is one lesson from COVID-19, it is that India, and the global community, has the political will, technical capacity and financial resources to act in a committed and concerted way to control infectious diseases. It needs to marshal these assets to eradicate TB, the most pernicious and pervasive infection of all, both through addressing its social determinants and scaling up effective biomedical interventions. But, for this to happen, we will have to be as concerned about the health needs of those who travel by foot and bicycle as we do for those who board cruise ships and international flights.

     

     

  • The real reform

    Context

    The IBC has started emerging stronger as it delivered on its promise, passed the constitutional muster, earned global recognition and became the preferred option for stakeholders in case of default.

    Demystifying the myths surrounding IBC

    Myths about recovery:

    Most of the myths surround recovery. Consider the following example for quick appreciation.

    • M/s. Synergies Dooray was the first company to be resolved under the IBC. It was with the Board of Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (BIFR) for over a decade.
    • The realisable value of its assets was Rs 9 crore when it entered the IBC process. It, however, owed Rs 900 crore to the creditors.
    • How much did IBC recover? The resolution plan yielded Rs 54 crore for them.
    • Some condemned IBC because the resolution plan yielded a meagre 6 per cent of the claims of the creditors, disregarding the fact that they recovered 600 per cent of the realisable value of the company, which had been in the sick bed for over a decade.
    • If the company was liquidated, assuming no transaction costs, the creditors would have got at best Rs 9 crore — 1 per cent of their claims.

    The myth that recovery under IBC is dismal

    • Let’s examine the myth that the recovery through resolution plans is dismal.
      • Two hundred companies had been rescued till December 2019 through resolution plans.
      • They owed Rs 4 lakh crore to creditors. However, the realisable value of the assets available with them, when they entered the IBC process, was only Rs 0.8 lakh crore.
      • The IBC maximises the value of the existing assets, not of the assets which do not exist. Under the IBC, the creditors recovered Rs 1.6 lakh crore, about 200 per cent of the realisable value of these companies.
      • Why creditors had to take a haircut? Despite the recovery of 200 per cent of the realisable value, the financial creditors had to take a haircut of 57 per cent as compared to their claims. This only reflects the extent of value erosion that had taken place when the companies entered the IBC process.
      • What is the conclusion? As compared to other options, banks are recovering much better through IBC, as per RBI data.

    The myth that IBC is sending companies for liquidation:

      • What is the primary objective of IBC: Recovery is incidental under the IBC. Its primary objective is rescuing companies in distress.
      • More number of companies sent for liquidation: There is a myth that although the IBC process has rescued 200 companies, it has sent 800 companies for liquidation. The number of companies getting into liquidation is thus four times that of the companies being rescued.
      • The context for the numbers: Numbers, however, to be seen in context. The companies rescued had assets valued at Rs 0.8 lakh crore, while the companies referred for liquidation had assets valued at Rs 0.2 lakh crore when they entered the IBC process.
      • Looking from the value term angle: In value terms, assets that have been rescued are four times those sent for liquidation. It is important to note that of the companies rescued, one-third were either defunct or under BIFR, and of the companies sent for liquidation, three-fourths were either defunct or under BIFR.

    The myth that IBC is resulting in huge job losses

    • The next myth is that the IBC is resulting in huge job losses through liquidation. It is misconstrued that 600 companies — for which data are available and which have proceeded for liquidation — have assets (and consequently employment) at least equal to the aggregate claim of the creditors — Rs 4.6 lakh crore.
    • Unfortunately, they have assets on the ground valued only at Rs 0.2 lakh crore.
      • Take the examples of Minerals Limited and Orchid Healthcare Private Limited, which have been completely liquidated. They owed Rs 8,163 crore, while they had absolutely no assets and employment.
      • What matters in this context is the assets a company has or the employment it provides — not how much it owes to creditors.
    • The IBC process would release the idle or under-utilised assets valued at Rs 0.2 lakh crore, which would have dissipated with time, for business and employment.
    • One also needs to consider the jobs saved through the rescue of 80 per cent of the distressed assets, and the job being created by these companies, post-rescue.

    What changes IBC has brought?

    • Changed the behaviour of debtors: A distressed asset has a life cycle. Its value declines with time if the distress is not addressed.
      • The credible threat of the IBC process, that a company may change hands, has changed the behaviour of debtors.
    • Debtors are settling debt at an early stage: Thousands of debtors are settling defaults at the early stages of the life cycle of a distressed asset.
      • They are settling when the default is imminent, on receipt of a notice for repayment but before filing an application, after filing the application but before its admission, and even after admission of the application.
      • These stages are akin to preventive care, primary care, secondary care, and tertiary care with respect to sickness. Only a few companies, who fail to address the distress in any of these stages, reach the liquidation stage.
    • Value erosion at the liquidation stage: The value of the company is substantially eroded, and hence some of them would be rescued, while others are liquidated.
      • The recovery may be low at this stage, but in the early stages of distress, it is much higher — primarily because of the IBC.
      • The percentage of companies or distressed assets getting into liquidation is insignificant.
      • Stakeholders should increasingly address the distress in the early stages and the best use of the IBC would be not using it all.

    Conclusion

    Stakeholders who understand business and have the backing of sophisticated professionals are using IBC with open eyes after evaluating all options. There is no reason to doubt their commercial wisdom. The 25,000 applications filed so far under IBC indicate the value and trust that stakeholders place on the law — the ultimate test of its efficacy.

     

  • The circuit breaker in the stock market

    The stock markets in India are witnessing historic single-day falls with an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases.  Since the indexes plunged more than 10 per cent each day earlier, a circuit breaker was triggered for the first time since 2009 halting trading.

    What are circuit breakers?

    • In June 2001, the SEBI implemented index-based market-wide circuit breakers.
    • Circuit breakers are triggered to prevent markets from crashing, which happens when market participants start to panic induced by fears that their stocks are overvalued and decide to sell their stocks.
    • This index-based market-wide circuit breaker system applies at three stages of the index movement, at 10, 15 and 20 per cent.
    • When triggered, these circuit breakers bring about a coordinated trading halt in all equity and equity derivative markets nationwide.

     

  • Oculudentavis khaungraae

    Scientists have found the skull of a 99-million-year-old flying dinosaur that is tinier than the tiniest bird known to humans.

    • The bird-like dinosaur was found stuck in a gob of tree resin that eventually hardened into amber, preserving it for millions of years to come.
    • The fossil was dug up in 2016 from a mine in Myanmar. It was so slight; it likely weighed just 2 grams.
    • The dinosaur skull holds around 100 sharp teeth, which hints at its ferocious nature despite its small size.
    • It even had teeth in the back of its jaw, under its eye.

     

  • Social Distancing and Flattening the Curve

    The last two days, a number of states in India have enforced measures aimed at reducing public gatherings. This is called “social distancing”.

    How does social distancing work?

    • To stem the speed of the coronavirus spread so that healthcare systems can handle the influx, experts are advising people to avoid mass gatherings.
    • Offices, schools, concerts, conferences, sports events, weddings, and the like have been shut or cancelled around the world, including in a number of Indian states.
    • An advisory by the US Centers for Disease Control recommends social distancing measures such as: reducing the frequency of large gatherings and limiting the number of attendees; limiting inter-school interactions; and considering distance or e-learning in some settings.

    What is the objective of such restrictions?

    • Compared to deadlier diseases such as bird flu, or H5N1, coronavirus is not as fatal —which ironically also makes it more difficult to contain.
    • With milder symptoms, the infected are more likely to be active and still spreading the virus.
    • For example, more than half the cases aboard a cruise ship that has docked in California did not exhibit any symptoms.
    • In a briefing on March 11, WHO officials said, “Action must be taken to prevent transmission at the community level to reduce the epidemic to manageable clusters.”
    • The main question for governments is to reduce the impact of the virus by flattening the trajectory of cases from a sharp bell curve to an elongated speed-bump-like curve.
    • This is being called “flattening the curve”. How does ‘flattening the curve’ help?
    • Limiting community transmission is the best way to flatten the curve.

    What was the curve like in China?

    • The numbers show that the virus spread within Hubei exponentially but plateaued in other provinces.
    • Some say it’s because many of these countries learnt from the 2003 SARS epidemic.
    • Just as Chinese provinces outside of Hubei effectively stemmed the spread in February, three other countries —South Korea, Italy, and Iran — were not able to flatten the curve.

    Flattening The Curve

    • In epidemiology, the idea of slowing a virus’ spread so that fewer people need to seek treatment at any given time is known as “flattening the curve.”
    • It explains why so many countries are implementing “social distancing” guidelines — including a “lockdown” order that affects 1.3 billion people in India, even though COVID-19 outbreaks in various places might not yet seem severe.

    What is the curve?

    • The “curve” researchers are talking about refers to the projected number of people who will contract COVID-19 over a period of time.
    • To be clear, this is not a hard prediction of how many people will definitely be infected, but a theoretical number that’s used to model the virus’ spread. Here’s what one looks like:

    • The curve takes on different shapes, depending on the virus’s infection rate.
    • It could be a steep curve, in which the virus spreads exponentially (that is, case counts keep doubling at a consistent rate), and the total number of cases skyrockets to its peak within a few weeks.
    • Infection curves with a steep rise also have a steep fall; after the virus infects pretty much everyone who can be infected, case numbers begin to drop exponentially, too.
    • The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people.
    • As we’re seeing in Maharashtra or Ahmedabad, more and more new patients may be forced to go without ICU beds, and more and more hospitals may run out of the basic supplies they need to respond to the outbreak.
    • A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time.
    • A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away.

  • [pib] Effects of Himalayan slip on its Hydrology

    Researchers from the Indian Institute of Geomagnetism have found the mighty Himalayas subside and move up depending on the seasonal changes in groundwater.

    Tectonic activity and groundwater

    • The Himalayan foothills and the Indo-Gangetic plain are sinking because its contiguous areas are rising due to tectonic activity associated with landmass movement or continental drift.
    • The new study shows that subsidence and uplift are found to be associated with seasonal changes in groundwater, apart from the normal, common reasons.
    • Water acts as a lubricating agent, and hence when there is water in the dry season, the rate of the slip of the fault in this region is reduced.
    • In the Himalaya, seasonal water from glaciers, as well as monsoon precipitation, plays a key role in the deformation of the crust and the seismicity associated with it.
    • The subsidence rate is associated with groundwater consumption.

    Findings of the study

    • The researchers have made the combined use of GPS and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, which has made it possible for them to quantify the variations of hydrologic mass.
    • The GRACE satellites, launched by the US in 2002, monitor changes in water and snow stores on the continents.
    • The combined data suggest a 12% reduction in the rate of the subsurface slip. This slip refers to how fast the fault is slipping relative to the foot and hanging wall.
    • The slip occurs at the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), due to hydrological variations and human activities, over which there is the periodic release of accumulated strain.

    About GRACE Mission

    • The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was a joint mission of NASA and the German Aerospace Center.
    • Twin satellites took detailed measurements of Earth’s gravity field anomalies from its launch in March 2002 to the end of its science mission in October 2017.
    • By measuring gravity anomalies, GRACE showed how mass is distributed around the planet and how it varies over time.

     

  • [pib] National Creche Scheme

    The WCD Minister has informed about some progress in the National Creche Scheme. As of today, 6453 creches are functional across the country under the Scheme.

    National Creche Scheme

    • Earlier named as Rajiv Gandhi National Creche Scheme, the NCS is being implemented as a Centrally Sponsored Scheme through States/UTs with effect from 1.1.2017.
    • It aims to provide daycare facilities to children (age group of 6 months to 6 years) of working mothers.

    Salient features of the Scheme

    • Daycare Facilities including Sleeping Facilities.
    • Early Stimulation for children below 3 years and pre-school education for 3 to 6 years old children.
    • Supplementary Nutrition ( to be locally sourced)
    • Growth Monitoring
    • Health Check-up and Immunization

    Further, the guidelines provide that :

    • Crèches shall be open for 26 days in a month and for seven and a half (7-1/2) hours per day.
    • The number of children in the crèche should not be more than 25 per crèche with 01 Worker and 01 helpers respectively.
    • User charges to bring in an element of community ownership and collected as under:
      1. BPL families – Rs 20/- per child per month.
      2. Families with Income (Both Parents) of up to Rs. 12,000/- per month – Rs. 100/- per child per month
      3. Families with Income (Both Parents) of above Rs. 12,000/- per month – Rs. 200/- per child per month.

     

  • Positive response

    Context

    Cooperation between the Centre and the States in dealing with the threat of the virus is commendable.

    Hope in dealing with the pandemic and India’s response to the pandemic

    • What is the best response?  World Health Organisation declared it a pandemic, Secretary-General offered hope: “If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, and mobilise their people in the response, those with a handful of cases can prevent those cases becoming clusters, and those clusters becoming community transmission.”
    • The advantage with India: India, with 70-odd cases, has the advantage, and commendably, the central and state governments have reacted rapidly to the developing pandemic
    • Equally importantly, they have set aside the acrimony over the CAA-NRC question and pulled together, without the need for external urging.
      • Because everyone realises that COVID-19 is everyone’s problem.
    • Steps taken by the government: No visas are being issued, screening is in progress, health education messaging is visible, public gatherings are sharply reduced and there is no sign of the wearying political blame game which generally besets such challenges.

    No room for complacency

    • Display of political will: The secretary-general has also cautioned that while many nations can avoid the pandemic, the operative verb is not “can” but “will”. The Indian response has displayed political will, but there is no room for complacency.
    • Fear of the unknown: This is the first coronavirus to reach pandemic levels. For at least 18 months, no vaccine can be market-ready. At least until the summer, there will be insufficient information about the behaviour of the organism in the wild. Wisely, Homo sapiens fears the unknown.
    • Caution is the best prescription: Until we learn more about the nature of the beast, abundant caution is the only credible prescription.
      • Isolation at the focus of the response: At present, the focus of the response is isolation (including self-isolation) and the maintenance of sanitation barriers. Schools have been closing down, some workplaces are screening staff, and people are discouraged from leaving home without a compelling reason.
      • However, outside the controlled conditions in homes and hospitals, maintaining the patency of the sanitation barrier requires extraordinary vigilance and self-control.

    Status of healthcare infrastructure

    • The readiness of healthcare facilities: In the case of breaches — a few oversights or accidents are inevitable — the readiness of healthcare facilities would become a serious factor in controlling mortality.
    • Variation in states’ preparedness: The quality of the states’ level of preparedness and the quality of health services varies. While Kerala efficiently controlled the Nipa virus, Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state, has failed to contain annual outbreaks of Acute Encephalitis Syndrome for over a decade.
      • And the capital’s initial failure in the face of seasonal waves of lethal mosquito-borne diseases cannot be forgotten.
    • Rural cluster-most vulnerable: How much less protected would a rural cluster be, serviced by a poorly equipped primary health centre?

    Conclusion

    If community transmission becomes commonplace, it would become a difficult battle. Hence, the sanitation barrier remains the most reliable epidemiological response. If the government has to resurrect primordial provisions from the era of bubonic plagues to keep it patent, so be it.

  • Is the worst really over for the country’s agricultural sector?

    Context

    Estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) released on 28 February confirmed that India’s economy is decelerating. The silver lining was growth in agriculture, which accelerated for the third quarter in a row to 3.5%.

    How agriculture sector has performed in the last few years?

    • Robust growth in the last 5 years: A look at the national accounts for a longer period shows robust agricultural growth during the first five years.
      • With agriculture growing at 3.17% per annum between 2013-14 and 2019-20.
      • This is remarkable, given that the broader economy is witnessing a slowdown.
    • Rural economy seen from the other indicators: A variety of other indicators show that the rural economy has been going through possibly its worst phase, with declining wage growth and farmer incomes causing serious distress.

    Crop sector growth rate at lowest

    • A clue to this disconnect between the national accounts and other indicators lies in a breakdown of the national accounts.
    • Crop sector growing at lowest in two decades: The GDP data for the agricultural sector shows that the crop sector, which accounts for 56% of total agricultural output and employs a majority of the farmers, has been growing at only 0.3%, the lowest in two decades.
      • By comparison, the sector grew 3.3% per annum during the 10 years under United Progressive Alliance governments.
    • Which sector of agri. is growing at a high rate? The agricultural sub-sectors that showed high growth between 2013-14 and 2018-19 were livestock (8.1%), forestry (3.1%) and fisheries (10.9%).
      • It is a puzzle what drove the high growth of livestock at a time when the crop sector was experiencing negligible growth.
      • The trend defies the logic: This defies past trends and is also difficult to believe, given contrasting trends in other indicators of livestock
    • The declining income of farmers and a decline in wages: The poor performance of the crop sector confirms the declining income of farmers, the majority of whom depend on crops for subsistence. Not surprisingly, even real rural wages are declining.
    • Inflationary pressure and hopes of growth in income of farmers: Hopes were kindled in the last three months as agricultural commodities showed signs of inflationary pressures, with food inflation hitting double-digit rates.
      • Increase in rural demand not the cause of inflation: A careful analysis of the data rules out rising rural demand as the cause of that inflationary trend.
      • Many price pressures were due to the mismanagement of cereal supplies by the government and supply shocks in vegetables.
      • In such circumstances, farmer income could not have risen. Some of this was also a result of food prices rising internationally.

    Trend pointing to the fall in agri. prices

    • Softening of food prices: Recent trends in international markets suggest a softening of food prices led by an overproduction of cereals and easing edible oil inflation. Following 3 factors may contribute to its fall.
    • Impact of fall in crude oil price: This trend will gain strength in the wake of the recent slide in crude oil prices.
      • With the global economy displaying signs of a slowdown, prices of agricultural commodities are likely to fall sharply.
      • Relation of food prices with oil prices: They tend to follow movements in crude oil prices, as was seen during the latter’s collapse in August 2014. In all likelihood, a similar decline in agricultural prices is upon us.
    • Food-grain stock with FCI: A second factor that may exacerbate the income troubles in agriculture is the presence of massive food-grain stocks with the Food Corporation of India.
      • This may slow the procurement of farm produce and lower price realizations, particularly cereals but also other crops.
    • The coronavirus outbreak: Lastly, the global slowdown due to the coronavirus outbreak is likely to dampen demand in the economy, and in turn hurt the agricultural sector.

    Conclusion

    • Limited room to improve the situation: These factors are likely to worsen agricultural incomes, and domestic policy has limited room to manoeuvre.
    • Opportunity to revive the demand: This situation is also an opportune time to revive rural demand The government could pass on some of the windfalls from the drop in oil prices to rural consumers. This could help lift rural incomes.
      • The government could also increase spending in rural areas to help boost demand and prevent a collapse in agricultural prices.
    • Worst for agriculture is not yet over: Whether the government uses the opportunity or fritters it away again will be known in the coming months. What appears certain for now, though, is that the worst of the rural slowdown is far from over.

  • Fighting COVID-19 together for a shared future

    Context

    The Chinese government has mobilised the whole nation with confidence, unity, a science-based approach and targeted response.

    Aspects that were focused by China to deal with COVID-19

    • Formulated timely strategies for epidemic prevention and control.
    • Strengthened a unified command and response in Wuhan and Hubei.
    • Coordinated the prevention and control work in other regions.
    • Strengthened scientific research, emergency medical and daily necessity supplies.
    • Effectively maintained social stability.
    • Strengthened public education.
    • Actively engaged in international cooperation.

    Mutual support between India and China

    • China and India have maintained close communication and cooperation on epidemic prevention and control. In a letter to President Xi, India’s Prime Minister has expressed support for China.
    • China appreciates the medical supplies provided by India and have helped facilitate the safe return of Indian nationals in Hubei.
    • The global footprint of COVID-19: China has been closely following the global footprint of COVID-19.

    Cooperation on a global level for disease control:

    • Chines govt. will stay in close communication with WHO.
    • Share its epidemic control experience with other countries.
    • Seek closer international cooperation on medicine and vaccine development.
    • Provide assistance to the best of its capabilities to countries and regions that are affected by the spread of the virus in keeping with its role as a responsible major
    • The Chinese reach-out: China has provided various kinds of assistance including testing reagents, remote assistance and medical supplies to countries with a severe outbreak.
    • Sharing of experience and protocol for treatment: China have shared diagnosis and treatment experience and protocols with many countries including India.
      • China is ready to maintain communication with India, share experience in a timely manner, render assistance and make joint efforts to overcome the epidemic.

    Impact and recovery of China

    • Robust economy: The impact on the Chinese economy will be short-lived and generally manageable. China has a resilient economy with robust domestic demand and a strong industrial base. We will definitely sustain the good momentum of economic and social development and meet the goal of achieving moderate prosperity in our society and eradicating extreme poverty in China.
    • Strengthen coordination and communication: China will also strengthen coordination and communication with economic and trading partners and give priority to the resumption of production and supply of leading enterprises and key sectors that have a major impact on the stability of global supply chains.
      • The fundamentals of China’s economy will remain strong in the long run, and China will remain an important engine for global economic growth.

    Conclusion

    The history of civilisation is also one of a history of fighting diseases and a great journey of ceaseless global integration. To prevail over a disease that threatens all, unity and cooperation is the most powerful weapon.