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  • Analysing the trends in India’s population growth

    op-ed snap | Trivia | Mains Paper 1: Population & Associated Issues

    The article analyses some trends in India’s population growth as found in the Sample Registration System Statistical Report (2018).

    Context

    • There have been some encouraging trends in India’s population in the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report (2018) and global population projections made by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), US.

     Declining TFR

    • SRS report estimated the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the number of children a mother would have at the current pattern of fertility during her lifetime, as 2.2 in the year 2018.
    •  It is estimated that replacement TFR of 2.1 would soon be, if not already, reached for India as a whole.
    • As fertility declines, so does the population growth rate.
    • This report estimated the natural annual population growth rate to be 1.38 per cent in 2018.
    • A comparison of 2011 and 2018 SRS statistical reports shows that TFR declined from 2.4 to 2.2 during this period.
    • Fertility declined in all major states.
    • In 2011, 10 states had a fertility rate below the replacement rate. This increased to 14 states.
    • The annual natural population growth rate also declined from 1.47 to 1.38 per cent during this period.

    So, when will India’s population stabilise

    • Duet to population momentum effect, a result of more people entering the reproductive age group of 15-49 years due to the past high-level of fertility, population stabilisation will take some time.
    • The UN Population Division has estimated that India’s population would possibly peak at 161 crore around 2061.
    •  Recently, IHME estimated that it will peak at 160 crore in 2048.
    • Some of this momentum effect can be mitigated if young people delay childbearing and space their children.

    Factors affecting fertility rates

    • Fertility largely depends upon social setting and programme strength.
    • Programme strength is indicated by the unmet need for contraception, which has several components.
    •  The National Family Health Survey (2015-16) provides us estimates for the unmet need at 12.9 per cent and contraceptive prevalence of 53.5 per cent for India.
    • Female education is a key indicator for social setting, higher the female education level, lower the fertility.
    • As the literacy of women in the reproductive age group is improving rapidly, we can be sanguine about continued fertility reduction.

    Declining sex ratio at birth: Cause for concerrn

    •  The SRS reports show that sex ratio at birth in India, measured as the number of females per 1,000 males, declined marginally from 906 in 2011 to 899 in 2018.
    • Biologically normal sex ratio at birth is 950 females to 1,000 males. 
    • The UNFPA State of World Population 2020 estimated the sex ratio at birth in India as 910, lower than all the countries in the world except China.
    • This is a cause for concern for following 2 reasons:
    • 1) This adverse ratio results in a gross imbalance in the number of men and women.
    • 2) Impact on marriage systems as well as other harms to women.
    • Increasing female education and economic prosperity help to improve the ratio.
    • It is hoped that a balanced sex ratio at birth could be realised over time, although this does not seem to be happening during the period 2011-18. 

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, there is an urgent need to reach young people both for reproductive health education and services as well as to cultivate gender equity norms. This could reduce the effect of population momentum and accelerate progress towards reaching a more normal sex-ratio at birth. India’s population future depends on it.

    Back2Basics: Total Fertility Rate and Replacement rate

    • Total fertility rate (TFR) in simple terms refers to total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her life time if she were subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific fertility in the population.
    • TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is called Replacement-level fertility (UN, Population Division).
    • This value represents the average number of children a woman would need to have to reproduce herself by bearing a daughter who survives to childbearing age.
    • If replacement level fertility is sustained over a sufficiently long period, each generation will exactly replace itself without any need for the country to balance the population by international migration.

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  • India’s Bid to a Permanent Seat at United Nations

    Opportunity for India to push for reforms at the UN

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    The article analyses the changing geopolitical context against the background of the pandemic. China has been facing some challenges at the UN of late. Multilateralism faces an unprecedented crisis. This context provides an opportunity for India to push for reforms in international institutions. 

    China facing difficulty in elections to UN bodies

    • Recently, India besting China in the elections for a seat on the UN’s Commission on the Status of Women (CSW).
    • Soon after the CSW vote, it lost another election, this time to tiny Samoa for a seat on the UN Statistical Commission.
    • And a couple of days ago, it just about managed to get elected to the UN High Rights Council, coming fourth out of five contestants for four vacancies.
    • Earlier, China’s candidate had lost to a Singaporean in the race for DG World Intellectual Property Organization.

    China’s strengths

    • Taking advantage of its position as a member of the P-5 and as a huge aid giver, China made itself invincible in UN elections.
    • It won among others, the top positions at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

    Historical background on China’s rise at the UN

    • World War II saw strong U.S.-China collaboration against the Japanese, including U.S. operations conducted from India.
    • Their bilateral ties saw the U.S. include the Chinese in a group of the most important countries for ensuring world peace post- World War II, along with the U.S., the USSR and the U.K.
    • This enlarged into the P-5, with France being added by the UK at the San Francisco conference held in 1945 where the UN charter was finalised.
    • The pure multilateralism of the League of Nations was thus infused with a multipolarity, with the U.S. as the sheet anchor.

    Challenges to multilateralism and the need for reform in the international institutions

    • Multilateralism is under stress due to COVID-19 pandemic and a certain disenchantment with globalisation.
    • At the root is the rise of China and its challenge to U.S. global hegemony.
    • But in the current scenario multilateralism backed by strong multipolarity in the need of the hour.
    • This demands institutional reform in the UN Security Council (UNSC) and at the Bretton Woods Institutions.
    • In this context, it is good that recently India, Germany, Japan and Brazil (G-4) have sought to refocus the UN on UNSC reform.
    • As proponents of reform, they must remain focused and determined even if these changes do not happen easily or come soon.
    • This is also the way forward for India which is not yet in the front row.

    Way forward

    • Earlier in the year, India was elected as a non-permanent member of the UNSC for a two-year term.
    • India will also host the BRICS Summit next year and G-20 Summit in 2022.
    • These are openings for India in collaborating the world in critical areas that require global cooperation especially climate change, pandemics and counter-terrorism.
    • India also needs to invest in the UN with increased financial contributions in line with its share of the world economy and by placing its people in key multilateral positions.

    Consider the question “The UN, which came into existence in different time fails to take into account the realities of the changing world. In light of this, examine the basis of India’s claim to a permanent seat at the UN. What are the challenges to India’s claim.”

    Conclusion

    Against the backdrop of pandemic and subsequent pushback against China at the UN, it is also an opportune moment for India and a Reformed Multilateralism.

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  • Hunger and Nutrition Issues – GHI, GNI, etc.

    Highlights of the Global Hunger Report, 2020

    IOCR | Governance | Mains Paper 1: Poverty & Development Issues

    India has the highest prevalence of wasted children under five years in the world, which reflects acute undernutrition, according to the Global Hunger Index 2020.

    Note the parameters over which the GHI is based and their weightage composition.

    Global Hunger Index (GHI)

    • The GHI has been brought out almost every year by Welthungerhilfe lately in partnerships with Concern Worldwide since 2000; this year’s report is the 14th one.
    • The reason for mapping hunger is to ensure that the world achieves “Zero Hunger by 2030” — one of the SDGs laid out by the UN.
    • A low score gets a country a higher ranking and implies better performance.
    • It is for this reason that GHI scores are not calculated for certain high-income countries.
    • Each country’s data are standardised on a 100-point scale and a final score is calculated after giving 33.33% weight each to components 1 and 4, and giving 16.66% weight each to components 2 and 3.

    For each country in the list, the GHI looks at four indicators:

    1. Undernourishment (which reflects inadequate food availability): calculated by the share of the population that is undernourished (that is, whose caloric intake is insufficient)
    2. Child Wasting (which reflects acute undernutrition): calculated by the share of children under the age of five who are wasted (that is, those who have low weight for their height)
    3. Child Stunting (which reflects chronic undernutrition): calculated by the share of children under the age of five who are stunted (that is, those who have low height for their age)
    4. Child Mortality (which reflects both inadequate nutrition and unhealthy environment): calculated by the mortality rate of children under the age of five.

    India’s performance this year

    • In the 2020 Global Hunger Index, India ranks 94th out of the 107 countries with sufficient data to calculate 2020 GHI scores.
    • With a score of 27.2, India has a level of hunger that is serious.
    • The situation has worsened in the 2015-19 period, when the prevalence of child wasting was 17.3%, in comparison to 2010-14, when it was 15.1%.
    • India fares worst in child wasting (low weight for height, reflecting acute undernutrition) and child stunting (low height for age, reflecting chronic undernutrition), which together make up a third of the total score.

    Useful comparative data

    • Overall, India ranks 94 out of 107 countries in the Index, lower than neighbours such as Bangladesh (75) and Pakistan (88).
    • In the region of the south, east and south-eastern Asia, the only countries which fare worse than India are Timor-Leste, Afghanistan and North Korea.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Russia

    What is New START Treaty?

    IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Russian President Mr Putin has proposed a one-year extension without conditions of the last major nuclear arms reduction accord, the New START Treaty between Russia and the U.S.

    The New START, INF and the Open Skies …. Be clear about the differences of these treaties. For example- to check if their inception was during cold war era etc.

    New START Treaty

    • The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) pact limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads, missiles and bombers and is due to expire in 2021 unless renewed.
    • The treaty limits the US and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, well below Cold War caps.
    • It was signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
    • It is one of the key controls on superpower deployment of nuclear weapons.
    • If it falls, it will be the second nuclear weapons treaty to collapse under the leadership of US President Donald Trump.
    • In February, US withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), accusing Moscow of violating the agreement.

    Also read:

    https://www.civilsdaily.com/news/us-confirms-pull-out-from-inf-treaty/

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Russia

    Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)

    IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Russian Navy along with CSTO members has begun military exercises in the central waters of the Caspian Sea north of the Azerbaijani capital Baku.

    Try this MCQ:

    Q.The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) sometimes seen in news is an alliance led by:

     

    (a) Russia (b) USA (c) India (d) European Union

    Collective Security Treaty Organization

    • CSTO is an intergovernmental military alliance that was signed on 15 May 1992.
    • In 1992, six post-Soviet states belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent States—Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—signed the Collective Security Treaty
    • This is also referred to as the “Tashkent Pact” or “Tashkent Treaty”.
    • Three other post-Soviet states—Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia—signed the next year and the treaty took effect in 1994.
    • Five years later, six of the nine—all but Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan—agreed to renew the treaty for five more years, and in 2002 those six agreed to create the CSTO as a military alliance.

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  • Cyber Security – CERTs, Policy, etc

    Five Eyes (FVEY) group of nations

    | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    India joins the UK in drive known as ‘Five Eyes’ group of nations, as a seventh member against encrypted social media messages.

    Map the countries in ‘Five Eyes’ group of nations.

    ‘Five Eyes’ group of nations

    • The Five Eyes (FVEY) is an intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.
    • The origins of the Five Eyes alliance can be traced back to the Atlantic Charter, which was issued in August 1941 to lay out the Allied goals for the post-war world.
    • These countries are parties to the multilateral UK-USA Agreement, a treaty for joint cooperation in signals intelligence.
    • India is among seven countries to back a UK-led campaign against end-to-end encryption of messages by social media giants such as Facebook, which they say hinder law enforcement by blocking all access to them.

    A formal expansion

    • The UK and India joined this group to ensure they do not blind themselves to illegal activity on their platforms, including child abuse images.
    • This marks an expansion of the so-called “Five Eyes” group of nations, a global alliance on intelligence issues, to include India and Japan.

    For a common cause

    • All members claim that end-to-end encryption policies such as those employed by the social media giant erode the public’s safety online.
    • They have made it clear that when end-to-end encryption is applied with no access to content, it severely undermines the ability of companies to take action against illegal activity on their own platforms.
    • It also prevents law enforcement investigating and prosecuting the most serious crimes being committed on these services such as online child sexual abuse, grooming and terrorist content.

    Back2Basics: End-to-end encryption

    • End-to-end encryption (E2EE) is a system of communication where only communicating users can read the messages.
    • It is regarded as the most secure way to communicate privately and securely online.
    • By encrypting messages at both ends of a conversation, end-to-end encryption prevents anyone in the middle from reading private communications.
    • In principle, it prevents potential eavesdroppers – including telecom providers, Internet providers, and even the provider of the communication service – from being able to access the cryptographic keys needed to decrypt the conversation.

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  • Police Reforms – SC directives, NPC, other committees reports

    What are ‘Chapter Proceedings’ by Police?

    Prelims Only | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters

    The Mumbai police last week began “chapter proceedings” against the Editor-in-Chief of a news channel.

    Can you relate the philosophy behind chapter proceedings and preventive detention?

    What exactly are “chapter proceedings”?

    • Chapter proceedings are preventive actions taken by the police if they fear that a particular person is likely to create trouble and disrupt the peace in society.
    • These proceedings are unlike punitive action taken in case of an FIR with an intention to punish.
    • Here, the police can issue notices under sections of the Code of Criminal Procedure to ensure that the person is aware that creating nuisance could result in action against him.

    What are the sections using which these notices are served?

    • Generally, a notice is issued to a person under section 111 of the CrPC whereby he is asked to present himself before the Executive Magistrate – an ACP-rank officer in a Commissionerate of a Dy. the collector in rural areas – who has issued the notice.
    • The person has to explain why he should not be made to sign a bond of good behaviour.
    • If the Executive Magistrate is not satisfied with the answer, the person is asked to sign a bond of good behaviour and produce sureties vouching for his/her good behaviour.
    • A fine amount is also decided – in accordance with the crime and the person’s financial capability – which the person would have to pay if he violates the conditions set in the bond.

    Legal immunities against such proceedings

    • On receiving the notice under section 111, a person can appeal the notice before the courts.
    • In fact, in the past, courts have come down strongly against chapter proceedings in some cases.

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  • Port Infrastructure and Shipping Industry – Sagarmala Project, SDC, CEZ, etc.

    National Authority of Ship Recycling (NASR)

    Prelims Only | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways Etc.

    The Central government has notified the Director-General of Shipping as the national authority for recycling of ships under the Recycling of Ships Act, 2019.

    The ‘Hong Kong Convention’ is the odd man out here. Read more about the convention at:

    https://www.civilsdaily.com/news/pib-hong-kong-international-convention-for-safe-recycling-of-ships-2009/

    About NASR

    • The national authority of ship recycling will be set up in Gandhinagar, Gujarat.
    • The location of the office will benefit the ship recycling yard owners situated in Alang, Gujarat which is home to the largest ship recycling industry in the world.
    • DG Shipping is authorized to administer, supervise and monitor all activities relating to ship recycling in the country.
    • DG Shipping will oversee the sustainable development of the ship recycling industry, monitoring the compliance to environment-friendly norms and safety and health measures for the stakeholders.
    • DG Shipping will be the final authority for the various approvals required by the ship-recycling yard owners and state governments.

    Recycling of Ships Act, 2019

    • Under the Ship Recycling Act, 2019, India has acceded to the ‘Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships’.
    • This was adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
    • DG Shipping is a representative of India in the IMO and all the conventions of IMO are being enforced by DG Shipping.

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  • Trade Sector Updates – Falling Exports, TIES, MEIS, Foreign Trade Policy, etc.

    Nudge towards formalisation of MSMEs

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Effects Of Liberalization On The Economy, Changes In Industrial Policy and their effects on Industrial Growth

    The lack of formalisation has several implications for MSMEs. Registering them could help them in various ways. The article deals with the issue of formalisation.

    Please read the link shared below for issues related to MSME

    The missing large in MSMEs

    Steps taken by Government to Formalize MSME

    • UAM: In 2015, the government notified the Udyog Aadhaar Memorandum (UAM), an online filing system for MSMEs.
    • As of January, 86 lakh MSMEs had registered on the UAM portal.
    • In 2016, the government notified rules under which MSMEs had to furnish information relating to their enterprises, online, in an MSME databank.
    • As of January, only 1.6 lakh units registered on it.
    • A new process of classification and registration for small businesses took off on July 1 called as “Udyam”.
    • As of October 1, the MSME ministry has confirmed that only 7 lakh registrations have taken place using the new system.Nudge by the government
    • In an attempt to nudge more enterprises to become lifetime Udyam, the government has integrated the system with the Trade Receivables Electronic Discounting System (TReDS) and the Government e-Marketplace (GeM).
    • In its updated Priority Sector Lending (PSL) guidelines, the RBI has established that for the purposes of PSL, MSMEs will be identified as per the gazette notification laying down the new process of classification and registration.

    Addressing the concerns

    • While the Udyam initiative holds more promise, it is important to assess if this will be detrimental to accessing formal finance.
    • To this end, the government and RBI should consider whether the registration requirement can be exempted for units with investment and turnover that falls in the lower end of the criteria.
    • In 2018, the International Finance Corporation estimated that the overall supply of finance from formal sources met only one-third of the credit demand of the MSME sector.
    • Enabling strategies such as PSL could provide a fillip to priority sectors including MSMEs which require increased formal financing.

    Conclusion

    The costs of formalisation and compliance are high and onerous in many states in India. In such an ecosystem, there are perverse incentives to remaining small and informal. Governments’ efforts towards formalisation should be directed towards addressing these issues.

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  • Coronavirus – Health and Governance Issues

    Growing salience of multilateralism

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India,Important International Institutions

    Multilateralism faces several challenges at the time when it is needed the most. The article highlights the need for more of it in the face of global challenges.

    Lack of international collaboration to deal with Covid

    • As COVID-19 recognises no boundaries, one would have expected that countries with technological and financial capabilities, would agree to pool their resources together to work on an effective and affordable anti-virus vaccine.
    • Instead, there are several parallel national efforts underway even as the World Health Organization (WHO) has put together a Covax alliance for the same purpose.
    •  Active collaboration would have enhanced our collective ability to overcome what has become a public health-cum-economic crisis.
    • But we live in an era when nationalist urges, fuelled by a political opportunism, diminish the appeal of international cooperation.
    • The post-pandemic world will have the awful dilemma of global integration without solidarity.

    Trends in the global order that suggests the need for multilateralims

    1) Global food crisis

    • The World Food Program has been awarded this year’s Noble Peace Prize.
    • The award is sending a message to the world — that we need multilateralism as an expression of international solidarity.
    • According to the WFP, 132 million more people could become malnourished as a consequence of the pandemic.
    • To the 690 million people who go to bed each night on an empty stomach, perhaps another 100 million or more will be added.
    • The Nobel Prize to the WFP will hopefully nudge our collective conscience to come together and relieve this looming humanitarian crisis.

    2) Despite issues, U.N. is still important

    • The United Nations is at the centre of multilateral institutions and processes and kept alive the notion of international solidarity and cooperation.
    • But it suffers from several disabilities due to the fault of its most powerful member countries.
    • They have deprived the UN of resources.
    • They have resisted efforts to institute long-overdue reforms.
    • Its structure no longer reflects the changes in power equations that have taken place and country such as India continues to be denied permanent membership of the Security Council.
    • And yet, the UN is now an essential part of the fabric of international relations for two reasons:
    • 1) The salience of global issues has expanded.
    • 2) The need for multilateral approaches in finding solutions has greatly increased.

    3) Multilateral institutions have become platform for contestation

    • In the network of multilateral institutions, several belong to the UN system, others are inter-governmental, still others may be non-governmental of a hybrid character.
    • This network performs two important tasks:
    • 1) Enable governance in areas which require coordination among nation-states.
    • 2) Set norms to regulate the behaviour of states so as to avoid conflict and to ensure both equitable burden-sharing and, equally, a fair distribution of benefits.
    • While there are multilateral institutions they have become platforms for contestations among their member states.
    • There is recognition of the need to cooperate but this is seen as a compulsion rather than desirable.

    4) Globalisation driven by technology will remain here

    • Globalisation may have stalled, but as we become increasingly digitised, there will be more, not less, globalisation.
    • The pandemic has triggered galloping globalisation in the digital economy.
    • Globalisation is driven by technology and as long as the technology remains the key driver of economic growth, there is no escape from globalisation.
    • In the contemporary world, the line separating the domestic from the external has become increasingly blurred.
    • In tackling domestic challenges deeper external engagement is often indispensable. This is certainly true of climate change.
    • The pandemic originated in a third country but soon raged across national borders.
    • If there had been a robust and truly global early warning system, perhaps it could have been contained.

    5) Interconnectedness of challenges

    • We must also take into account the inter-connectedness among various challenges, for example, food, energy and water security are inter-linked with strong feedback loops.
    • Enhancing food security may lead to diminished water and energy security.
    • It may also have collateral impact on health security.
    •  It is in recognition of these inter-connections that the international community agreed on a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
    • The SDGs are cross-domain but also cross-national in character, and hence demand greater multilateral cooperation in order to succeed.

    6) Need for more democratic world

    • The lack of cooperation from even a single state may frustrate success in tackling a global challenge.
    • A fresh pandemic may erupt in any remote corner of the world and spread throughout the globe.
    • Prevention cannot be achieved through coercion, only through cooperation. It is only multilateralism that makes this possible.

    Conclusion

    It is a paradox that precisely at a time when the salience of cross-national and global challenges has significantly increased, nation-states are less willing to cooperate and collaborate in tackling them. So, there is a need for more of multilateralism to deal with the issues of global level.

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