Type: op-ed snap

Context

It may be too early to say how the American withdrawal from Afghanistan would shape regional geopolitics in Asia and the great power contest between the United States and its competitors. But it is certainly one of those developments that will have a far-reaching impact on global politics.

Two narratives about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan

• There are two dominant narratives about the American withdrawal.
• Realignment in foreign policy: The first narrative is that the U.S. exited the country on its own will as it is undertaking a larger realignment in its foreign policy.
• Failure to win the war: The other one is that the U.S. failed to win the war in Afghanistan and, like in the case of Vietnam, was forced to withdraw from the country.
• Focus on China: The reorientation that is under way in American foreign policy, focused on China, certainly played a role in the Afghan withdrawal.
• But that does not obscure the fact that the world’s most powerful military and economic power failed to win the war in Afghanistan against the Taliban even after fighting them for 20 years.

Erosion of the US’s ability in shaping geopolitical outcomes

•  The gradual erosion of the U.S.’s ability in shaping geopolitical outcomes in faraway regions has already shaken up the structures of American unipolarity.
• Withdrawal from Afghanistan is not an isolated incident: The Afghan withdrawal was not an isolated incident.
• In Iraq and Libya, it failed to establish political stability and order after invasions.
• It could not stop Russia taking Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. In Syria, it was outmanoeuvred by Vladimir Putin.
• Finally, the way American troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power strengthened this perception of great power fatigue and emboldened America’s rivals to openly challenge the U.S.-centric “rules-based order.”

Three geopolitical challenges facing the US

• [1]Aggressive Russia: Russia has amassed about 175,000 troops on its border with Ukraine.
• Western intelligence agencies claim that Russian President Vladimir Putin could order an invasion of Ukraine.
• Russian sphere of influence: From the migrant crisis in Belarus to the troop mobilisation in Ukraine, Russia is unmistakably sending a message to the West that the region stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a Russian sphere of influence.
• [2] Iran issue:  Iran, which has stepped up its nuclear programme after the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear deal, has refused to hold direct talks with the U.S. 
• Iran insists that the U.S. should first remove the sanctions and give assurance that a future President would not violate the terms of the agreement.
• [3] Assertive China: China is sending dozens of fighter jets into the so-called Taiwan Air Defence Identification Zone almost on a weekly basis, triggering speculation on whether Beijing was considering taking the self-ruled island by force.
• As the U.S. is trying to shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific region to tackle China’s rise, China is becoming more and more assertive in its periphery, seeking strategic depth.

Implications

• Limited choice: The pivot to Asia has limited America’s options elsewhere. For example, what could the U.S. do to deter Mr. Putin from making the next military move in Europe.
• With regard to Iran, if the U.S. blinks first and lifts the sanctions, it could be read as another sign of weakness.
• If it does not and if the Vienna talks collapse, Iran could continue to enrich uranium to a higher purity, attaining a de facto nuclear power status without a bomb (like Japan), which would be against America’s declared goals in West Asia.
• The Afghan withdrawal and the downsizing in West Asia suggest that America’s strategic focus has shifted towards China.

Conclusion

This transition, from American unipolarity into something that is still unknown, has put America in a strategic dilemma: Should it stay focused on China, preparing itself for the next bipolar contest; or continue to act as a global policeman of the liberal order that is under attack from multiple fronts?

UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

Context

When Delhi thinks of technological cooperation with major powers, the US, Europe and Japan come to mind. The missing link in India’s technological mind space, however, is the United Kingdom.

How India can benefit from technology partnership with Britain

• Britain was the first nation to industrialise and has a long tradition of scientific research and technological development.
• With top-ranking universities and the golden triangle of science and innovation — London, Oxford and Cambridge — Britain is one of the world’s top technology powers.
• WIPO ranking: This year, the World Intellectual Property Organisation ranked Britain fourth in the global innovation index.
• India is far behind at the 46th position.
• India, then, could gain in a technology partnership with Britain.

Overview of the India-UK bilateral ties

• Pakistan angle: India’s foreign policy community can’t shake off the Pakistan prism in viewing London.
• To be sure, London’s advocacy of Pakistan has always irritated Delhi.
• Instead of complaining about London’s South Asian policy, Delhi now simply ignores London’s claims for a special role in India’s political disputes with Pakistan.
• By focusing on the positive, Delhi is betting it can reduce the traditional negative elements in the engagement with the UK.
• At the same time, Delhi recognises the enormous strategic possibilities with Britain and is willing to invest political capital to build on those synergies.
• Meanwhile, the steady relative decline of Pakistan — its economy is now about a tenth of India’s — and Delhi’s deepening strategic partnership with Washington are also encouraging London to rethink its past approach to the Subcontinent.
• India is fully conscious of UK’s enduring global salience.
• External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has often highlighted Britain’s continuing weight in the world as the fifth-largest economy, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a major financial centre, and a leading hub of higher education and technology.
• Britain also enjoys a global maritime reach and a measure of political influence across the world.

Possibilities for partnership in the technological domain

• While a trade agreement between Delhi and London is said to be imminent, it is in the technological domain that the prospects are immense but under-explored.
• There is insufficient awareness in India’s strategic community of the British moves to put science and technology at the very heart of its political, economic, security and foreign policies.
•  London announced a raft of measures this year starting with a major report on “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: An Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development, and Foreign Policy”.
• One of the broad themes stand out from these initiatives, which is forming a coalition of like-minded countries.
• London wants to build a coalition of like-minded countries to reshape the global governance of technology.
• This includes strengthening technological ties with the traditionally close partners in the Anglosphere — US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand — as well as other partners like Japan and India.
• All these elements of British policy mesh with India’s own economic, political, and security interests.
• The British technology initiatives are also aligned with the technological agenda of the Quad — or the Quadrilateral forum that brings together Australia, India, Japan, and the US.

Consider the question “In India’s partnership with the UK, it is the technological domain where prospects are immense but underexplored. Comment.”

Conclusion

For Delhi, the essence of the new alliance with Britain is fourfold — generate domestic prosperity, enhance national security, climb up the global technology hierarchy, and contribute to the construction of a free, open, and democratic global technological order.

UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

Back2Basics: Major themes of the policy report on “Global Britain in a Competitive Age”

• [1] Leverage technology to “level up” the regional and social inequalities in Britain.
• [2] Ensure Britain’s privileged position as a leading science power.
• [3] Focus on technological innovation to drive Britain’s future economic growth.
• [4] Build internal security resilience against new technological threats.
• [5] Modernise the intelligence apparatus with the help of new technologies.
• [6] Integrate technology into the national defence strategy as new capabilities like AI become as consequential as battle-tanks, ships and fighter jets.
• [7] Project technological power to counter malevolent actors in the international system.
• [8]A coalition of like-minded countries.