Mentor’s comment

Energy defines the destiny of nations. While oil shaped the geopolitics of the 20th century, uninterrupted, affordable, and indigenous energy will decide the balance of power in the 21st. For India, a country importing over 85% of its crude and more than 50% of its natural gas,  energy dependence is not just an economic statistic but a national security liability. In an era of wars, fragile supply chains, and volatile prices, the debate is no longer about transition versus fossil fuel dependence. It is about energy sovereignty as the foundation of survival and strategic autonomy.

Introduction

India’s dependence on imported energy is a national vulnerability, with crude oil and natural gas alone forming nearly one-fourth of merchandise imports. While discounted Russian oil has provided temporary relief, heavy reliance on any single source magnifies strategic risks. In a fragile global environment, energy sovereignty is no longer an economic choice but a survival imperative.

Energy Sovereignty as India’s New National Imperative

• Import Dependence: Over 85% crude oil and 50% natural gas imports expose India’s economy to global shocks.
• Economic Burden: Energy imports worth $170 billion (25% of total imports) destabilise the rupee and worsen the trade deficit.
• Geopolitical Vulnerability: Russian oil now forms 35–40% of India’s imports, compared to just 2% pre-2022. Overdependence on one partner creates strategic risks.
• Global Flashpoints: Near-conflict between Israel and Iran in June 2025 threatened 20 million barrels/day of global oil flows enough to push Brent crude above $103/barrel within days.
• Fragile Transition: Despite global rhetoric, fossil fuels still supply 80% of primary energy; premature phase-outs, like Spain-Portugal’s 2025 blackout, prove the risks of over-reliance on intermittent renewables.

Global Energy Shocks and the Lessons for India

• 1973 Oil Embargo: Quadrupling of oil prices exposed Western overdependence on OPEC, prompting strategic reserves and diversified sourcing.
• 2011 Fukushima Disaster: A nuclear meltdown stalled nuclear expansion, but the rise of coal/gas revived emissions. Nuclear energy is now regaining ground as a zero-carbon baseload.
• 2021 Texas Freeze: Pipeline freezes and turbine failures highlighted the danger of cost-driven systems lacking resilience and weather-proofing.
• 2022 Russia-Ukraine War: Europe’s 40% gas dependence on Russia ended abruptly, forcing record LNG prices and coal revival.
• 2025 Iberian Blackout: Grid collapse in Spain-Portugal proved the risk of over-reliance on renewables without dispatchable backup.

The Five Pillars of India’s Energy Sovereignty

1. Coal Gasification for Indigenous Energy:
   • India has 150 billion tonnes of coal reserves, long sidelined due to high ash content.
   • Technologies like carbon capture and gasification can convert coal into syngas, methanol, hydrogen, and fertilizers.
   • Unlocking this potential ensures domestic supply security while reducing import dependence.
2. Biofuels: Rural Empowerment Meets National Security:
   • Ethanol blending programme transferred over ₹92,000 crore to farmers, reduced crude imports, and saved foreign exchange.
   • With the E20 blending target, rural incomes will expand further.
   • SATAT scheme supports compressed biogas (CBG) plants, producing clean fuel and bio-manure with 20–25% organic carbon.
   • Vital for restoring soils in North India where organic carbon has dropped to 0.5% (vs healthy 2.5%).
3. Nuclear Power for Dispatchable Zero-Carbon Future:
   • India’s nuclear capacity remains stagnant at 8.8 GW.
   • Thorium roadmap, uranium partnerships, and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are essential to create a baseload backbone for a renewable-heavy grid.
4. Green Hydrogen as Strategic Technology:
   • Target: 5 million metric tonnes annually by 2030.
   • Requires domestic electrolyser manufacturing, catalysts, and storage systems.
   • The goal is not just production, but sovereign hydrogen value chains.
5. Pumped Hydro as Grid Inertia Backbone:
   • Complements solar/wind by offering storage and grid balancing.
   • India’s topography provides vast potential for durable, scalable pumped hydro projects.

India’s Shift Towards a Diversified Energy Strategy

1. Reduced West Asia dependence: Crude sourcing from West Asia fell from 60% to under 45%, as per S&P Global.
2. Diversification of partners: Russia has emerged as a key supplier, but long-term strategy aims at broad-based imports plus indigenous production.
3. Energy Realism: India recognises transition as a pathway, not a switch. Security and resilience are prerequisites to climate ambition.

Conclusion

The 20th century was dominated by oil politics; the 21st will be shaped by energy sovereignty. India’s vulnerability due to high imports, volatile supply chains, and geopolitical risks makes domestic capacity building non-negotiable. Coal gasification, biofuels, nuclear, green hydrogen, and pumped hydro form the sovereign spine of a resilient energy future. The Israel-Iran ceasefire is a reminder: India must act during stability, not after a crisis. Energy sovereignty is no longer a policy choice, it is the foundation of survival, resilience, and strategic autonomy.

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