Mains Ready By December. Smash Mains & Smash PYQ Admissions Open
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

Type: Op-ed

  • Divided democracies

    Democracies across the world are facing several challenges. The article examines these challenges.

    Threats to democracy

    • Efforts by Donald Trump, to negate the result of the recently held presidential elections, indicates a new set of tactics, previously seen only in dictatorships.
    • In the case of the U.S., one of the world’s oldest democracies, what we are witnessing is a deep divide.
    • This division is evident in many other democratic nations today.
    • This is true of many other democracies as well and must be viewed as a wake-up call.
    • What is evident is that issues of identity, or threats to identity, are becoming an important issue in elections across democracies.
    • Democracies already confront such problems, but it will become still more evident as time passes.
    • Manipulation of grievances by using psychometric techniques (as done by Cambridge Analytica), and the use of ‘deep fakes’ made possible through Artificial Intelligence, further enhances the threat to current notions of democracy.

    Troubles to democracy in Europe

    • Europe will have to deal with the declining importance of America in global politics.
    • An uncertain Brexit will further damage the prospects of both the United Kingdom and Europe.
    • Russia, under Vladimir Putin, remains an enigma, for despite its military strength and strategic congruence with China, its future appears increasingly uncertain.
    • France displays even greater fragility and French values appear to be undergoing major changes.
    • The recent wave of terrorist attacks has been a major trigger, raising questions about long-held secular beliefs.

    Return of terrorism

    • Terrorism is resurfacing, and with renewed vigour.
    • The al-Qaeda is again becoming prominent. The IS, which many thought had been vanquished has returned in full force.
    • Recently IS has carried out spectacular attacks in France and in Austria which is a reminder of the transnational character of the threat it poses to democratic countries.
    • They combine symbolism with spectacular violence.
    • The intent is to shock the public at large, and produce a reaction across the entire Muslim world, reigniting the fading embers of a religio-cultural conflict.

    Information manipulation

    • Alongside the above issues, there is a growing concern across the globe about increasing efforts to manipulate information in order to perpetuate power.
    • Manipulation of information — and also events — to achieve certain desired ends, is becoming the stock-in-trade of many a democratic regime as well.
    • Many democratic nations today resort to manipulating data to support or prop up the government’s version of events. Informational autocracy is, hence, the latest danger that threatens democracies.

    India’s challenges

    1) Threat to democracy

    • In some regions, especially where mid-term elections are scheduled, as in West Bengal, the atmosphere today is highly polarised.
    • The ghosts of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the National Register of Citizens have by no means been laid to rest.
    • Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is witnessing a kind of surface calm, but beneath this, there are evident tensions.
    • Aggravating this situation are Pakistan’s efforts to push in terrorists in ever larger numbers.

    Uncertain external environment

    • The downward spiral in its relations with China has not been arrested.
    • 15 Asia-Pacific nations, including China, have signed on to the world’s biggest trade bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) — from which India has been excluded.
    • The RCEP, which covers almost a third of the world’s economy, is perceived as the springboard for future economic recovery across the region.
    • India’s absence from RCEP represents a cardinal failure of India’s bargaining strategy.
    • India’s isolation is evident from the fact that even a weak Pakistan is pursuing a policy of provocation— the latest provocation being the holding of Assembly elections in Gilgit-Baltistan.
    • India is again being steadily marginalised in Afghanistan, where the control of the Taliban is increasing, with all other players accomodating Taliban.

    Consider the question “What are the various challenges faced by the democracies across the world and India is no exception to it. In the context of this, examine the issues facing democracy in India.”

    Conclusion

    Though democracies across the world are facing several issues, resilience inherent in them will help them clear the chaos created by these issues.

  • Faultlines in India’s economic liberalism

    The article counters the argument made by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar about the impact of economic liberalisation on India’s economy.

    Impact of liberalism on India

    • India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently disapproved of free trade and globalisation.
    • About FTA’s he said that “the effect of past trade agreements has been to de-industrialise some sectors.”
    • These observations were made days after countries of the Asia-Pacific region signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement.
    • He said that , “in the name of openness, we have allowed subsidi[s]ed products and unfair production advantages from abroad to prevail”

    Flaws in the argument

    •  There are several flaws in Mr. Jaishankar’s arguments.

    1) India cannot be the part of global value chain

    • India is now truly at the margins of the regional and global economy.
    • With trade multilateralism at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) remaining sluggish, FTAs are the gateways for international trade.
    • By not being part of any major FTA, India cannot be part of the global value chains.
    • India’s competitors such as the East Asian nations, by virtue of they being part of mega-FTAs, are in an advantageous position to be part of global value chains and attract foreign investment.

    2) Indian economy has bee relatively closed economy

    • India is surely a much more open economy than it was three decades ago, globally, India continues to remain relatively closed when compared to other major economies.
    • According to the WTO, India’s applied most favoured nation import tariffs are 13.8%, which is the highest for any major economy.
    • Likewise, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, on the import restrictiveness index, India figures in the ‘very restrictive’ category.
    • From 1995-2019, India has initiated anti-dumping measures 972 times (the highest in the world) trying to protect domestic industry.

    3) Economic survey accepts the benefits of FTAs

    • The External Affairs Minister is contradicting government’s economic survey presented earlier this year.
    • The survey concluded that India has benefitted overall from FTAs signed so far.
    • Blaming FTAs for deindustrialisation means ignoring real problem of the Indian industry — which is the lack of competitiveness and absence of structural reforms.

    4) India has been a major beneficiary of economic globalisation

    • It cannot be ignored that India has been one of the major beneficiaries of economic globalisation — a fact attested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
    • Post-1991, the Indian economy grew at a faster pace, ushering in an era of economic prosperity.
    • According to the economist Arvind Panagariya, poverty in rural and urban India, which stood at close to 40% in 2004-05, almost halved to about 20% by 2011-12.
    • This was due to India clocking an average economic growth rate of almost 8%.

    Conclusion

    Desire to make India a global destination for foreign investment is a pipe dream because it is naive to expect foreign investors to be gung-ho about investing in India if trade protectionism is the government’s official policy.

  • Export remain key to economic growth

    The article highlights the argument made by Arvind Panagaria about the primacy of export for the progress of the country in his new book India Unlimited: Reclaiming the Lost Glory.

    (more…)

  • Inter state water Sharing disputes

    The article highlights the issue of challenges facing the water governance in India, how need for more coordination between the Centre and the States.

    Objectives of the two bills

    • Interstate River Water Disputes Amendment Bill 2019 and the Dam Safety Bill 2019 were passed by Lok Sabha and awaits Rajya Sabha nod.
    • The Interstate River Water Disputes Amendment Bill 2019 seeks to improve the inter-state water disputes resolution by setting up a permanent tribunal.
    • The Dam Safety Bill 2019 aims to deal with the risks of India’s ageing dams, with the help of a comprehensive federal institutional framework comprising.
    • The other pending bills also propose corresponding institutional structures and processes.

    Challenges to the federal water governance

    • The agenda of future federal water governance is not limited to the above cited issues.
    • These include emerging concerns of long-term national water security and sustainability, the risks of climate change, and the growing environmental challenges, including river pollution.
    • These challenges need systematic federal response where the Centre and the states need to work in a partnership mode.
    • Greater Centre-states coordination is also crucial for pursuing the current national projects — whether Ganga river rejuvenation or inland navigation or inter-basin transfers.

    Challenges to water governance

    • Water governance is perceived and practiced as the states’ exclusive domain, even though their powers are subject to those of the Union under the Entry 56 about inter-state river water governance.
    • The River Boards Act 1956 legislated under the Entry 56 has been in disuse.
    • No river board was ever created under the law.
    • The Centre’s role is largely limited to resolving inter-state river water disputes by setting up tribunals for their adjudication.
    • Combined with the states’ dominant executive power, these conditions create challenges for federal water governance.
    • This state of affairs puts the proposed bills at a disadvantage.

    Bridging the water governance gap

    • Each bill proposes their own institutional mechanisms and processes leaning on closer Centre-state coordination and deliberation.
    • The disputes resolution committee and dam safety authority rely on active Centre-states participation.
    • Segmented and fragmented mechanisms bear the risks of the federal water governance gap.

    Way forward

    • The massive central assistance (Rs 3.6 lakh crore- Centre and states together) through  Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM), is an opportunity to open a dialogue with the states to address this governance gap.
    • Globally, federated systems with comparable organisation of powers have used similar investments to usher key water sector reforms.
    • The symbiotic phase of implementing JJM can be productively used to engage in a dialogue with the states about the larger water resources management agenda, beyond the mission’s goals.
    • The Centre can work with the states in building a credible institutional architecture for gathering data and producing knowledge about water resources.

    Consider the question “Water governance in the country requires greater Centre-State coordination to deal with the current issues as well as future challenges. In light of this, examine the challenges and suggest the strategies to deal with it.”

    Conclusion

    Bridging the governance gap between the Centre and State and creation of institutional framework is at the heart of addressing the future challenges to the federal water governance in the country.

    Back2Basics: River Board Act 1956

    • The act to provide for the establishment of River Boards for the regulation and development of inter-state rivers and river valleys.
    • It empowers the Central Government, on a request received in this behalf from a State Government to establish a River Board for advising the Governments on regulation or development of an inter-State river or river valley or any specified part thereof.

  • India’s challenge in balancing the emissions and economy

    India faces an uphill task of balancing its climate action with the economic growth. Bridging the energy deficit through renewable energy in cost-effective and increasing urban forestry could help in balancing the both.

    Comparing India’s commitment

    • China’s announcement recently to achieve carbon neutrality, that is, effectively generating net-zero emissions, before 2060 has now shifted focus on India’s commitments.
    • In this context,  let us compare India’s commitments with other countries, based on an independent scientific analysis carried out by the Climate Action Tracker. Major findings of it are:-
    • 1) India is one of the only six countries (amongst the 33 that were assessed), and the only G-20 country, whose climate commitments at Paris are on a path compatible to limit warming well below 2°C.
    • 2) It seems that India is well on its way to achieving its carbon intensity reduction and non-fossil-fuel electricity growth capacity commitments well before the 2030 target year.
    • Even though China’s commitment is likely to lower warming projections by around 0.2 to 0.3 degrees C by 2100, China continues to remain in the “highly insufficient” category.
    • India, despite being the fourth-largest emitter, has consistently kept its commitments in sync with its fair share and will achieve, if not over-achieve, these targets.

    Difference in development and growth levels

    • Development and growth in India are still at an early stage, and our first goal remains increasing the availability of adequate infrastructure for all Indians.
    • A measure of this deficit is that we use only about 0.6 tonnes of oil-equivalent worth of energy per person per year while in China it is 2.36 tonnes per person per year, and is at least 4 tonnes per person per year in the OECD countries.
    • It is, therefore, essential that we rapidly bridge the energy deficit.

    Bridging the energy deficit through renewable and cost-effective manner

    • Cost-effectiveness in renewable electricity has occurred rather rapidly, largely as a result of the global reduction in solar PV and battery prices.
    • Solar electricity is already the cheapest electricity available in India when the sun is shining.
    • It now seems that round-the-clock renewable electricity may be cost-competitive with coal electricity in the near future.
    • This cost-effectiveness of zero-carbon options will emerge in other applications as well.
    • It will involve dedicated action in some of the vital sectors which can generate and sustain employment while adding to the country’s economic growth.
    • It will enable a shift away from emissions-intensive fossil fuels, reducing our dependence on fuel imports.

    Urban forestry to compensate for environmental degradation

    • Increasing urban forestry could help compensate for environmental degradation as a result of rapid urbanisation in several Indian cities.
    • This is vital to restore the flow of crucial ecosystem services, including air quality, and increase the resilience of cities to extreme climatic events.
    • As a result, enhancing biodiversity, minimising human-wildlife conflict and restoring India’s pristine forests by developing dedicated wildlife/biodiversity corridors is an essential next step.

    Way ahead

    • At the developmental crossroads that India stands, the next decade is vital for its own economic growth, its climate action, and its social and ecological well-being.
    • With this in mind, India must focus on its domestic developmental prerogative and disengage them from the pressures that come along with international negotiations, focussing on actions that reduce the development deficits, which also provide strong climate benefits.
    • India must initiate a narrative, discussion and dialogue which focuses on each country taking on commitments that move their carbon trajectory towards the Paris agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C.

    Consider the question “Development and growth in India still at an early stage which makes the challenge of balancing the commitment to climate action with economic developement more difficult. In light of this, suggest the strategy that India should follow.”

    Conclusion

    India, being at the crossroads of development needs to balance the development goals with its commitment towards climate action.

  • India’s challenges in maintaining its viability against competitive economies

    The article deals with the challenges India faces in attracting the relocating supply chains in the wake of the pandemic.

    Is China losing its appeal

    • Some labour-intensive industries, such as textiles and apparels, have been moving to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as labour costs in China are increasing.
    • But trends in other industries show that businesses have mostly remained in China.
    • COVID-19 crisis has resulted in firms establishing relatively small-scale operations elsewhere.
    • This is perceived as a buffer against being completely dependent on China, referred to as the ‘China +1’ strategy.

    3 Reason for firms to remain in China

    •  1) Starting an enterprise and maintaining operations in China are much easier than elsewhere.
    • 2) Chinese firms are nimble and fast, which is evident from the quick recovery of Chinese manufacturing after the lockdown.
    • 3) Many global companies have spent decades building supply chains in China, getting out would mean moving the entire ecosystem.

    3 Challenges facing India

    • This has led to intensification of competition among Asian countries to be ‘plus one’  in the emerging manufacturing landscape.
    • India faces three challenges in this race.

    1) Increasing domestic public investment

    • First is the task of increasing domestic public investments, which have implications for both demand and supply sides.
    • In India, even before the pandemic, the growth in domestic investments had been weak,
    • This seems to be the opportune time to bolster public investments as interest rates are low globally and savings are available.
    • Private investments would continue to be depressed, due to the uncertainty on the future economic outlook.

    2) Reforms in trade policy

    • India needs a major overhaul in her trade policy world trade had been rattled by tendencies of rising economic nationalism and unilateralism leading to the return of protectionist policies.
    • A revamped trade policy needs to take into account the possibility of two effects of the RCEP:
    • 1) Walmart effect: It would sustain demand for basic products and help in keeping employee productivity at an optimum level, but may also reduce wages and competition due to sourcing from multiple vendors at competitive rates.
    • 2) Switching effects: It would be an outcome of developed economies scouting for new sources to fulfil import demands, which requires firms to be nimble and competitive.
    • Trade policy has to recognise the pitfalls of the present two-track mode, one for firms operating in the ‘free trade enclaves’ and another for the rest.
    • A major fallout of this ‘policy dualism’ is the dampening of export diversification.
    • The challenge is to make exporting activity more attractive for all firms in the economy.

    3) Increasing women’s participation in labour force

    • While India’s GDP has grown by around 6% to 7% per year women’s labour force participation rate has fallen from 42.7% in 2004–05 to 23.3% in 2017–18.
    • This means that three out of four Indian women are neither working nor seeking paid work.
    • Globally, India ranks among the bottom ten countries in terms of women’s workforce participation.
    • When Bangladesh’s GDP grew at an average rate of 5.5% during 1991 and 2017, women’s participation in the labour force increased from 24% to 36%.
    • India could gain hugely if barriers to women’s participation in the workforce are removed.
    • The manufacturing sector should create labour-intensive jobs that rural and semi-urban women are qualified for.

    Consider the question “Relocation of supply chains offers an opportunity for India. However, it faces several challenges in attracting these relocating supply chains. What are these challenges? Suggest measures to deal with these challenges.”

    Conclusion

    India’s approach to the changed scenario needs to be well-calibrated. The stage is set for a new ‘Asian Drama’. What will be India’s role in it? Well, it will not be on the basis of past accolades, for sure.

  • Vulture Action Plan for 2020-25

    Union Minister for Environment, Forests and Climate Change has launched a Vulture Action Plan 2020-25 for the conservation of vultures in the country.

    Vulture Action Plan

    • While the ministry has been carrying out a conservation project for vultures since 2006, the plan is to now extend the project to 2025 to not just halt the decline but to actively increase the vulture numbers in India.
    • There are nine recorded species of vultures in India — the Oriental white-backed, long-billed, slender-billed, Himalayan, red-headed, Egyptian, bearded, cinereous and the Eurasian Griffon.
    • Vulture numbers saw a steep slide — as much as 90 per cent in some species — in India since the 1990s in one of the most drastic declines in bird populations in the world.

    Decline in Populations

    • Between the 1990s and 2007, numbers of three presently critically-endangered species – the Oriental white-backed, long-billed and slender-billed vultures — crashed massively with 99 per cent of the species having been wiped out.
    • The number of red-headed vultures, also critically-endangered now, declined by 91% while the Egyptian vultures by 80%.
    • The Egyptian vulture is listed as ‘endangered’ while the Himalayan, bearded and cinereous vultures are ‘near threatened’.

    Why protect vultures?

    • Vultures are often overlooked and perceived as lowly scavengers, but they play a crucial role in the environments in which they live.
    • The scavenging lifestyle that gives them a bad reputation is, in fact, that makes them so important for the environment, nature and society.
    • Vultures, also known as nature’s cleanup crew, do the dirty work of cleaning up after death, helping to keep ecosystems healthy as they act as natural carcass recyclers.

    Various threats

    • The crash in vulture populations came into limelight in the mid-90s, and in 2004.
    • The cause of the crash was established as diclofenac — a veterinary nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) used to treat pain and inflammatory diseases such as gout — in carcasses that vultures would feed off.
    • Just 0.4-0.7 per cent of animal carcasses contaminated with diclofenac was sufficient to decimate 99 per cent of vulture populations.

    Various initiatives

    • The MoEFCC released the Action Plan for Vulture Conservation 2006 with the drugs controller banning the veterinary use of diclofenac in the same year and the decline of the vulture population being arrested by 2011.
    • The Central Zoo Authority (CZA) and Bombay Natural History Society (BNHS) also established the Vulture Conservation Breeding Programme.
    • It has been successful and had three critically-endangered species bred in captivity for the first time.
    • The ministry has now also launched conservation plans for the red-headed and Egyptian vultures, with breeding programmes for both.
    • The Vulture Safe Zone programme is being implemented at eight different places in the country where there were extant populations of vultures, including two in Uttar Pradesh.

  • Governor’s inaction and judicial scrutiny

    The inaction by the Governor of Tamil Nadu on advice to free the convict has raised the possibility of judicial intervention due to undue delay.

    Inaction by Governor on advice

    • The Governor of Tamil Nadu has continued to withhold his decision on an application seeking pardon by one of the seven prisoners convicted in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.
    • In September 2018, the Supreme Court (SC) had observed, while hearing a connected writ petition, that the Governor should take a decision
    • The inaction by the Governor now has given rise to constitutional fault lines within the Executive arm of the government.

    Past judgements on pardoning power

    • In Maru Ram v. Union of India (1981)  Supreme Court held that the pardoning power “under Articles 72 and 161 of the Constitution can be exercised by the Central and the State Governments, not by the President or Governor on their own.”
    • The majority judgment had said that the “advice of the appropriate Government binds the Head of the State”.
    • Therefore, a Governor is neither expected, nor is empowered, to test the constitutionality of the order or resolution presented to her.

    Issue of delay in decision of mercy petition

    • Recently, the Supreme Court, had examined the inordinate delay by the President and the Governor — in taking decisions on mercy petitions.
    • The Supreme Court, in the case of Shatrugan Chouhan v. Union of India, laid down the principle of “presumption of dehumanising effect of such delay”.
    • The Supreme Court confirmed that the due process guaranteed under Article 21 was available to each and every prisoner “till his last breath”.

    Judicial scrutiny of the actions of Speakers

    • It was hitherto believed that the powers of the Speaker, holding a constitutional office and exercising powers granted under the Constitution, were beyond the scope of a ‘writ of mandamus’.
    • In the recent case of Keisham Meghachandra Singh v. Hon’ble Speaker (2020), the Supreme Court was asked to examine the Speaker’s inaction with regard to disqualification proceedings.
    • However, the apex court, referering to Rajendra Singh Rana v. Swami Prasad Maurya (2007), had confirmed its view that the “failure on the part of the Speaker to decide the application seeking a disqualification cannot be said to be merely in the realm of procedure”
    • Consequently, breaking years of convention, the SC set the time period of four weeks to decide the disqualification petition.
    • By doing so, the Supreme Court has indicated that it would not be precluded from issuing directions in aid of a constitutional authority “arriving at a prompt decision”.

    Consider the question “The undue delays and inactions by the constitutional functionaries threaten to widen the constitutional faultlines among the Executives. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    Instead of relying on the judicial intervention in the event of delays, it would be better to have a set time limit for arriving at decision by the constitutional judiciary.

  • 2025 nutrition targets call for a multi-dimensional focus

    The article highlights the issue of nutrition and suggest the ways to achieve nutrition security in the country to drive sustainable growth for India.

    Nutrition in India

    • A recent United Nations report-  The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, 2020 highlighted that there are 189.2 million undernourished people in India.
    • Even though this number has declined by 60 million over the past decade, the progress is far too slow.
    • While we recorded a drop in undernourishment, obesity amongst Indian adults grew from 25.2 million in 2012 to 34.3 million in 2016.
    • India is likely to miss the 2025 global nutrition targets according to the Global Nutrition Report 2020, unless more is done, soon.

    Impact of POSHAN Abhiyan

    • With the launch of POSHAN Abhiyan in 2018, the government mainstreamed nutrition, with this multi-ministerial and multi-sectoral approach.
    • It converges all existing programs to improve the nutritional status of pregnant women, mothers and children.
    • It brings together several programs such as National Rural Health Mission, Mid-Day meals, Integrated Child Development Scheme, Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, and others to improve nutrition intake in India.
    • The success lies in following an outcome based approach to ensure all the benefits under these interventions are delivered to mothers and children within the first 1000 days, setting the base for healthier lives.

    Micronutrients through food fortification

    • Food fortification is another effective way to deliver micronutrients to Indian masses, through existing food delivery systems such as mid-day meals and the public distribution system.
    • Regulators have already been promoting fortification in food products like salt, edible oil, milk, rice and wheat flour to improve nutritional content.
    • Going forward, we will see more and more food products and crops getting covered.

    Need for innovation

    • It is crucial for the food and beverage industry to make nutrition an integral part of their strategy.
    • Healthier ingredients, fortification, reformulation to reduce saturated and trans-fat content and optimize sugar and sodium content, immunity boosting product is already commonplace across urban markets.
    • This will soon permeate to rural markets.
    • Factors such as product taste, convenience, shelf life, and price – all of which determine consumption – are also important elements that ensure higher intake of nutritious products by consumers everywhere.
    • This calls for more innovation. Innovation in product, pricing, technology, digitalization, and research and development by food companies.

    Rising nutrition awareness

    • Solving the problem of malnourishment has to start with awareness.
    • In rural areas, general nutritional awareness has historically been lower.
    • In urban areas even though people are generally more aware a large percentage still consumes excess sugar and salt, leads sedentary lifestyles coupled with lack of exercise, resulting in lifestyle diseases like diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure
    • Consumers everywhere need to be better educated about nutritional benefits of common food items and the importance of including them in regular diet.
    • This can be done effectively through government led awareness campaigns and healthy public food distribution initiatives, industry acting responsibly.

    Conclusion

    Good nutrition is the best investment we can make in human capital. It has the power to drive sustainable economic growth for India.

  • Challenges from the RCEP despite staying out of it

    India’s challenges from RCEP didn’t end by staying out of it. Remaining out of the RCEP has several implications for India. This article discusses such challenges.

    What RCEP mean for the region

    • The RCEP was finally signed by its 15 members on the sidelines of the Asean Summit last week without India.
    • This would make it a trade deal that includes the ten Asean economies, and all of Asean’s bilateral FTA partners, except India.
    • It would create new market access for China and Japan-the two largest economies of the group.
    • China, Japan and Korea were negotiating a trilateral trade pact, which now might become inconsequential following RCEP.
    • In this respect, RCEP would actually produce much greater market access outside of the Asean, among non-Asean members China, Japan and Korea.
    • Asean’s specific market access gains would be over and above those that are already available through various Asean+1 FTAs.
    • Additional market access gains would be more with respect to China, in terms of the additional tariff coverage and concessions that RCEP would provide.

    Implications for China

    • Apart from the additional preferential access it obtains, it is also able to pull off strategic dividends.
    • As the RCEP proceeds, it would establish China’s decisive say in writing the rules of trade in the region through the RCEP.
    • And this is precisely what the US would be wary of.

    Implications for the U.S.

    • President Obama had pitched the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as an obvious and essential alternative for counterbalancing Chinese strategic domination of the regional trade game.
    • The US was taken out of the TPP by President Trump.
    • The remaining members managed to salvage the deal, largely due to the spirited leadership provided by Japan and Australia.
    • While the TPP survives as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
    • But CPTPP is incapable of being a strategic counterweight to China, and the RCEP.
    • Nothing other than a CPTPP that includes the US would be able to counterbalance China in economic size and strategic clout.

    Way forward

    • The Quad—a security partnership between the US, Japan, India and Australia—is looking to expand beyond defence and assume broader strategic proportions.
    • Geopolitics is contributing significantly to the construction of economic alliances, including the reorganisation of regional supply chains.
    • Due to these factros, search for an Indo-Pacific trade and economic compact is likely to hasten following the conclusion of RCEP.
    • Following RCEP, and the almost non-existent possibility of returning to its fold, India too, might find itself working actively on moving towards an Indo-Pacific trade deal.
    • The RCEP, which has a sizeable number of key Indo-Pacific economies like Japan, Australia, Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia, would need to stick to these countries to stick to the trade agreement after its ratification.

    Conclusion

    RCEP might actually force the U.S to look at returning to CPTPP much more proactively than it might have imagined. It would also, expectedly, look at India to join the bloc. That would be another challenge to navigate. India’s challenges from the RCEP might have increased in spite of staying out of it.