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  • Literacy and delivery of services, not religion, influences fertility

    op-ed snap | Trivia | Mains Paper 1: Population & Associated Issues

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Replacement rate

    Mains level: Paper 1- Factors influencing fertility rate

    Context

    The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 5 report that was awaited for nearly six months is finally out. And it provides a heartening outlook.

    About NHFS

    • Started in 1992-93, it has culminated in the fifth round 2019-21.
    • The NFHS is a large, multi-round survey that, inter alia, provides information on fertility, infant and child mortality, the practice of family planning, reproductive health, nutrition, anaemia, quality and utilisation of health and family planning services.
    • The surveys provide essential data needed by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and other agencies for policy and programme purposes.
    • The Ministry assigned the nodal responsibility for the task to the International Institute for Population Sciences(IIPS), Mumbai.
    • Several international agencies are involved in providing technical and financial assistance, mainly USAID, DFID, UNICEF, and UNFPA.

    Replacement rate achieved

    • Replacement rate achieved: The report shows that India has finally achieved the replacement rate of 2.1TFR (Total Fertility Rate is the total number of children a woman will bear in her lifetime).
    • In fact, it has gone below the mark to 2.0.
    • There are, of course, large interstate variations.
    • The lagging states are UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Manipur and Meghalaya.
    • Significantly, there were four states which were keeping the figures poor, namely, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
    • Two states, Rajasthan and MP, have struggled to get out of this group, while Jharkhand and the two northeastern states have replaced them.
    • UP and Bihar because of their sheer size are pulling down the national average.
    • Rajasthan and MP have reached the TFR of 2, which shows the success of their efforts.

    Influencing factors

    • It is not religion as commonly propounded but literacy, especially of girls, income and delivery of family planning, and health services.
    • 1] Delivery of services: The figures would have been even better if all those who have been made aware of the benefits of family planning had received the services they desire.
    • Making people informed of the need and methods of family planning and motivating them to adopt family planning is difficult enough.
    •  Having achieved the difficult task, we are not able to provide the services communities need — the “unmet need” — which is still very high at 9.4 per cent.
    • If we focus on this issue in a mission mode, the family planning performance will dramatically improve.
    • 2] Male attitude towards family planning: They tend to put the onus for birth control on women.
    • As many as 35 per cent men believe that using contraceptives is a woman’s responsibility. They ignore the fact that male vasectomy is a much simpler procedure than female tubectomy.
    • 3] Acceptance of family planning:  Muslim acceptance of family planning has continued through the five surveys spread over three decades at a rate faster than all other communities.
    • Though birth control practice among Muslims is still the least – 47.4 per cent (up from 45 per cent in NFHS-4).
    • Other communities — for example, Hindus — are not far behind with 58 per cent (up from 56 per cent).
    • This means that 42 per cent of the 80 per cent of the population are not practising family planning.
    • Education:  Women who have not attended school have 2.8 TFR as against 1.8 for those who have completed class XII.
    • Poverty: Similar gap of figure one is visible in the context of poverty with the poorest segment having higher TFR than the richest.

    Conclusion

    The time has come to leave politics behind and work together for achieving the goals set by National Population Policy 2000. Instead of misleading narratives, we need to address the real determinants of fertility behaviour – literacy, income generation and improvement of health and family planning services.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-United States

    Ukraine conflict won’t make the US abandon Indo-Pacific strategy

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India,Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- US's commitment to the Indo-Pacific

    Context

    When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

    The Challenge of balancing China and Russia

    • There are two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question.
    • 1] Engagement with allies: When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.
    • Biden came to power with a determination to make the Indo-Pacific the highest priority of his foreign policy.
    • He is not going to abandon that objective in dealing with the unexpected crisis in Europe.
    • The assumption that China was the principal challenge and Russia was less of a threat led Biden to meet Putin in June 2021 to offer prospects for a reasonable relationship with Russia in order to devote US energies to the China question.
    • But Putin’s calculations led him towards a deeper strategic partnership with China
    • But America’s assessment of the Russian and Chinese threats has not changed since the war began in Ukraine.
    • The idea that China will gain from the Russian war in Ukraine has also proven to be false.
    • Expectations that Russia’s triumph in Ukraine will be followed by a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan have begun to dissipate.
    • Meanwhile, China is reeling under self-inflicted problems, most notably Xi Jinping’s zero Covid strategy and his crackdown on the large internet companies.
    • The costly foreign policy of China: Beijing’s prospects look a lot less rosy than before as the Chinese economy slows down and XI’s foreign policy turns out to be quite costly for China.
    • The muscular approach of China: In Asia, China’s muscular approach to disputes with its neighbours has helped strengthen the US alliances, create new forums like the AUKUS, elevate old ones like the Quad to a higher level, and consolidate the strategic conception of the Indo-Pacific.
    • 2] Coordination with allies and partners: Biden’s lemma to the theorem on a two-front strategy is a simple one — that Washington will address the simultaneous challenge in Europe and Asia not by acting alone but in coordination with allies and partners. 
    • The idea was rooted in the recognition that alliances and partnerships are America’s greatest strength and most important advantage over Russia and China.

    Engagement with Asia

    • ASEAN: This week’s summit level engagement with the ASEAN comes after sustained high-level US outreach to the region since the Biden Administration took charge.
    • In northeast Asia, the election of Yoon Suk-yeol as the president of South Korea has tilted the scales slightly towards the US in the continuing battle for influence between Beijing and Washington.
    • The US is also actively trying to reduce the differences between its two treaty allies in the region — South Korea and Japan.
    • Asia’s new coalitions are a response to Xi Jinping’s unilateralism and his quest for regional hegemony.
    • India’s enthusiasm for the Quad can be directly correlated to Xi’s military coercion on the disputed frontiers with India.

    Implications for India

    • The two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question have worked well for India.
    • Tolerance toward India-Russia engagement: For one, the US’s emphasis on the long-term challenge from China has meant that Washington is willing to tolerate India’s engagement with Russia.
    • Time for the diversification of defence ties: This gives India time to diversify its defence ties that have been heavily dependent on Russia.
    • The US emphasis on partnerships rather than unilateralism in dealing with the China challenge means India’s agency in the region can only grow.
    • The Quad allows Delhi to carve out a larger role for itself in Asia and the Indo-Pacific in collaboration with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    Contrary to the initial assumptions that America is on the retreat and the West is in disarray, it is Moscow and Beijing that are on the defensive as the war in Ukraine completes three months.

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  • The importance of emigrants

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Indian Diaspora

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Significance of emigrants

    Context

    Though the phenomenon of Indian-origin executives becoming CEOs of top U.S. companies highlights the contribution of Indian talent to the U.S. economy, the role played by Indian semi-skilled migrant labour in the global economy is no less illustrious.

    Destinations of Indian migrants

    • Every year, about 2.5 million workers from India move to different parts of the world on employment visas
    • According to the Ministry of External Affairs, there are over 13.4 million Non-Resident Indians worldwide.
    • Significance of GCC: Of them, 64% live in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the highest being in the United Arab Emirates, followed by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
    • Low and semi-skilled: Almost 90% of the Indian migrants who live in GCC countries are low- and semi-skilled workers, as per International Labour Organization estimates.
    • Other significant countries of destination for overseas Indians are the U.S., the U.K., Australia, and Canada.

    Contribution of Indian migrant workers

    • Besides being involved in nation-building of their destination countries, Indian migrant workers also contribute to the homeland’s socioeconomic development, through remittances.
    • Highest remittances: As per a World Bank Group report (2021), annual remittances transferred to India are estimated to be $87 billion, which is the highest in the world, followed by China ($53 billion), Mexico ($53 billion), the Philippines ($36 billion) and Egypt ($33 billion).
    •  Remittances in India have been substantially higher than even Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the flow of remittances is much less fluctuating than that of FDI.
    • Still, remittances’ contribution of 3% in GDP is lower than that of countries such as Nepal (24.8%), Pakistan (12.6%), Sri Lanka (8.3%) and Bangladesh (6.5%), as per a World Bank report.
    • Hedging strategy against risk: Besides being a win-win situation for both the destination and source country, labour migration is good hedging strategy against unsystematic risks for any economy.

    Way forward

    • Human capital should also be invested in a diversified portfolio akin to financial capital.
    • Promoting labour mobility: For many countries, remittances have been of vital support to the domestic economy after a shock.
    • India should aim to increase remittances to say 10% of GDP.
    • The Philippines’ model of promoting labour mobility be replicated in India.
    • Reducing the costs involved: Both the cost of recruitment of such workers and the cost of sending remittances back to India should come down.
    • Skilling: The number of migrant workers need not go up for remittances to increase if the skill sets of workers are improved.
    • Regulation of recruitment agencies: Recruitment agencies should also be regulated by leveraging information technology for ensuring protection of migrant workers leaving India.
    • An integrated grievance redressal portal, ‘Madad’, was launched by the government in 2015.
    • Proposed Emigration Bill 2021: The Indian government proposed a new Emigration Bill in 2021 which aims to integrate emigration management and streamline the welfare of emigrant workers.
    • It proposes to modify the system of Emigration Check Required (ECR) category of workers applying for migration to 18 notified countries.
    • The Bill makes it mandatory for all categories of workers to register before departure to any country in the world to ensure better protection for them, support and safeguard in case of vulnerabilities.
    • The proposed Emigration Management Authority will be the overarching authority to provide policy guidance.
    • Besides workers, as about 0.5 million students also migrate for education from India every year, the Bill also covers such students.

    Conclusion

    For India to increase remittances’ contribution to GDP, it doesn’t need more workers but skilling and better management.

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  • Judicial Reforms

    India’s judiciary and the slackening cog of trust

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Executive & Judiciary

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Judicial corruption and pendency

    Context

    Departures from substantive and procedural justice need deep scrutiny as the fallout could severely imperil governance.

    Judicial corruption in India in lower judiciary

    • According to Transparency International (TI 2011), 45% of people who had come in contact with the judiciary between July 2009 and July 2010 had paid a bribe to the judiciary.
    • The most common reason for paying the bribes was to “speed things up”.
    • The Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC) (April 2013) estimates that for every ₹2 in official court fees, at least ₹ 1,000 is spent in bribes in bringing a petition to the court.
    • Freedom House’s ‘Freedom in the World 2016 report for India’ states that “the lower levels of the judiciary in particular have been rife with corruption” (Freedom House 2016).
    • Allegations of corruption against High Court judges abound.
    • Worse, there are glaring examples of anti-Muslim bias, often followed by extra-judicial killings by the police.
    • Anti-Muslim bias alone may not result in erosion of trust but if combined with unprovoked and brutal violence against them (e.g., lynching of innocent cattle traders) is bound to.

    Forms of judicial corruption

    • Pressure and bribery: Judicial corruption takes two forms: political interference in the judicial process by the legislative or executive branch, and bribery.
    • Despite the accumulation of evidence on corrupt practices, the pressure to rule in favour of political interests remains intense.
    • Court officials coax bribes for free services, and lawyers charge additional “fees” to expedite or delay cases.

    Case pendency

    • According to the National Judicial Data Grid, as of April 12, 2017, there are 24,186,566 pending cases in India’s district courts, of which 2,317,448 (9.58%) have been pending for over 10 years, and 3,975,717 (16.44%) have been pending for between five and 10 years.
    • Vacancies: As of December 31, 2015, there were 4,432 vacancies in the posts of [subordinate court] judicial officers, representing about 22% of the sanctioned strength.
    • In the case of the High Courts, 458 of the 1,079 posts, representing 42% of the sanctioned strength, were vacant as of June 2016.
    • Thus, severe backlogging and understaffing persisted, as also archaic and complex procedures of delivery of justice.

    Understanding the substantive and procedural justice

    • Substantive justice is associated with whether the statutes, case law and unwritten legal principles are morally justified e.g., freedom to pursue any religion,
    • Procedural justice is associated with fair and impartial decision procedures.
    • Outdated laws: Many outdated/dysfunctional laws or statutes have not been repealed because of the tardiness of legal reform both at the Union and State government levels.
    • Worse, there have been blatant violations of constitutional provisions.
    • The Citizenship (Amendment) Act (December 2019) provides citizenship to — except Muslims — Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs, Jains, Parsis and Christians who came to India from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan on or before December 31, 2014.
    • But this goes against secularism and is thus a violation of substantive justice.
    • Alongside procedural delays, endemic corruption and mounting shares of under-trial inmates with durations of three to five years point to stark failures of procedural justice and to some extent of substantive justice.

    Conclusion

    Exercise of extra-constitutional authority by the central and State governments, weakening of accountability mechanisms, widespread corruption in the lower judiciary and the police, with likely collusion between them, the perverted beliefs of the latter towards Muslims, other minorities and lower caste Hindus, a proclivity to deliver instant justice, extra-judicial killings, filing FIRs against innocent victims of mob lynching have left deep scars on the national psyche.

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  • Poverty Eradication – Definition, Debates, etc.

    Extreme Poverty down in India

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters,Government Scheme/Policies

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Poverty in India

    Mains level: Paper 2- Poverty reduction in India

    Context

    A recent World Bank Report has shown that extreme poverty in India more than halved between 2011 and 2019 – from 22.5 per cent to 10.2 per cent.  The reduction was higher in rural areas, from 26.3 per cent to 11.6 per cent.

    What explains the reduction in poverty?

    • Poverty has reduced significantly because of the government’s thrust on improving the ease of living of ordinary Indians through schemes.
    • These schemes include the Ujjwala Yojana, PM Awas Yojana, Swachh Bharat Mission, Jan Dhan and Mission Indradhanush in addition to the Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Rural Livelihood Mission and improved coverage under the National Food Security Act.
    • It is important to understand how poverty in rural areas was reduced at a faster pace.
    • Much of the success can be credited to all government departments, especially their janbhagidari-based thrust on pro-poor public welfare.

    Contributing factors

    1] Identification of beneficiaries through SECC 2011

    • The identification of deprived households on the basis of the Socioeconomic and Caste Census (SECC) 2011 across welfare programmes helped in creating a constituency for the well-being of the poor, irrespective of caste, creed or religion.
    • Deprivation criterion: Since deprivation was the key criterion in identifying beneficiaries, SC and ST communities got higher coverage and the erstwhile backward regions in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Rajasthan and rural Maharashtra got a larger share of the benefits.
    • Gram Sabha Validation: Social groups that often used to be left out of government programmes were included and gram sabha validation was taken to ensure that the project reached these groups.

    2] Widened coverage of women

    • The coverage of women under the Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana and Self Help Groups (SHG) increased from 2.5 crore in 2014 to over 8 crore in 2018 as a result of more than 75 lakh SHGs working closely with over 31 lakh elected panchayati raj representatives, 40 per cent of whom are women.
    • This provided a robust framework to connect with communities and created a social capital that helped every programme.
    • The PRI-SHG partnership catalysed changes that increased the pace of poverty reduction and the use of Aadhaar cleaned up corruption at several levels and ensured that the funds reached those whom it was meant for.

    3] Creation of basic infrastructure

    • Finance Commission transfers were made directly to gram panchayats leading to the creation of basic infrastructure like pucca village roads and drains at a much faster pace in rural areas.
    • The high speed of road construction under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadhak Yojana created greater opportunities for employment in nearby larger villages/census towns/kasbas by improving connectivity and enhancing mobility.

    4] Availability of credit through SHGs

    • The social capital of SHGs ensured the availability of credit through banks, micro-finance institutions and MUDRA loans.
    • Livelihood diversification: The NRLM prioritised livelihood diversification and implemented detailed plans for credit disbursement.

    5]  Implementation of social sector schemes

    • In the two phases of the Gram Swaraj Abhiyan in 2018, benefits such as gas and electricity connections, LED bulbs, accident insurance, life insurance, bank accounts and immunisation were provided to 63974 villages that were selected because of their high SC and ST populations.
    • The performance of line departments went up manifold due to community-led action.
    • The gains are reflected in the findings of the National Family Health Survey V, 2019-2021.

    6] Universal coverage schemes

    • The thrust on universal coverage for individual household latrines, LPG connections and pucca houses for those who lived in kuccha houses ensured that no one was left behind. This created the Labarthi Varg.

    7] Increase in fund transfer to rural area

    • Seventh, this was also a period in which a high amount of public funds were transferred to rural areas, including from the share of states and, in some programmes, through extra-budgetary resources.

    8] Community participation

    • The thrust on a people’s plan campaign, “Sabki Yojana Sabka Vikas” for preparing the Gram Panchayat Development Plans and for ranking villages and panchayats on human development, economic activity and infrastructure, from 2017-18 onwards, laid the foundation for robust community participation involving panchayats and SHGs, especially in ensuring accountability.

    9] Social and concurrent audit

    • Through processes like social and concurrent audits, efforts were made to ensure that resources were fully utilised.
    • Several changes were brought about in programmes like the MGNREGS to create durable and productive assets.

    10] Focus of states on improving livelihood diversification

    • The competition among states to improve performance on rural development helped.
    • Irrespective of the party in power, nearly all states and UTs focussed on improving livelihood diversification in rural areas and on improving infrastructure significantly.

    Conclusion

    All these factors contributed to improved ease of living of deprived households and improving their asset base. A lot has been achieved, much remains to be done.

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  • Death Penalty Abolition Debate

    A new track for capital punishment jurisprudence

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Executive & Judiciary

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Rarest of rare case

    Mains level: Paper 2- Capital punishment jurisprudence

    Context

    A recent trend in the evolution of jurisprudence around the death penalty in India may reset judicial thinking around sentencing and have long-term ramifications in the awarding of capital punishment.

    New thinking in the jurisprudence around capital punishment

    • Capital punishment once delivered by the court of sessions (“sentencing court”) is required under law, specifically Chapter 28 of the Code of Criminal Procedure, to be confirmed by the jurisdictional High Court (“confirming court”).
    • Over the last six months or so, while dealing with appeals against confirmation of the death sentence, the Supreme Court of India has examined sentencing methodology from the perspective of mitigating circumstances more closely.
    • The Court has also initiated a suo motu writ petition (criminal) to delve deep into these issues on key aspects surrounding our understanding of death penalty sentencing.
    • Bachan Singh vs State of Punjab (1980), the leading case on this point, calls for mitigating and aggravating circumstances to be balanced against each other and laid down the principle that the death penalty ought not to be awarded unless the alternative of life imprisonment is “unquestionably foreclosed”.
    • It is also an equally well-established legal principle that in a sentencing hearing, the accused must necessarily be provided with sufficient opportunity to produce any material that may have bearing on the sentencing exercise.
    • When read in conjunction with the ratio decidendi of the Bachan Singh case, it is incumbent upon the sentencing court and the confirming court to ensure that the question of reform and rehabilitation of a convicted person has been examined in detail for these courts to come to a definitive conclusion that all such options are unquestionably foreclosed.

    Lack of judicial uniformity

    •  A report by the National Law University Delhi’s Project 39A (earlier known as the “Centre on the Death Penalty”) titled ‘Matters of Judgment’ found that there is no judicial uniformity or consistency when it comes to awarding the death sentence.
    •  In the report titled ‘Death Penalty Sentencing in Trial Courts’ (also authored by Project 39A), findings reported from a study of cases involving death sentencing between 2000 and 2015 in Delhi, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh have showed that courts have been lax in assessing the aspect of reformation while undertaking the sentencing exercise.
    • The Court, in Mofil Khan vs State of Jharkhand (2021), held that the “the State is under a duty to procure evidence to establish that there is no possibility of reformation and rehabilitation of the accused.
    • Undoubtedly, the onus has been placed on the State to lead evidence to show that no reformation is possible and for the sentencing courts to be satisfied that a thorough mitigation analysis was done before the death sentence is awarded.

    Mitigation investigation

    • For a complete mitigation investigation, professionals trained in psychology, sociology and criminology are required in addition to legal professionals.
    • Taking cognisance of the value of a holistic approach to mitigation investigation, the Court in Manoj & Ors vs State of Madhya Pradesh (2022) issued directions to the State to place before the court all “report(s) of all the probation officer(s)” relating to the accused and reports “about their conduct and nature of the work done by them” while in prison.
    •  The order also directs that a trained psychiatrist and a local professor of psychology conduct a psychiatric and psychological evaluation of the convict.

    Conclusion

    The intervention of the Supreme Court of India in, hopefully, framing guidelines around incorporation of a mitigation analysis and consideration of psycho-social reports of the prisoner at the time of sentencing is timely and necessary.

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  • Trade Sector Updates – Falling Exports, TIES, MEIS, Foreign Trade Policy, etc.

    India must seize the trade opportunity opening now

    op-ed snap | Agriculture | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Non-tariff barriers

    Mains level: Paper 3- Trade opportunities for India

    Context

    Slower global growth, an adverse geopolitical environment, the shadow of recurring waves of the pandemic and prolonged supply chain issues are likely to weigh on export growth this year.

    Trade growth in 2021 and uncertainties in 2022

    • The year 2021 was a record one for trade despite the pandemic.
    • In terms of volumes, merchandise trade rose 9.8 per cent, while in dollar terms, it grew 26 per cent.
    • The value of commercial services trade was also up 15 per cent.
    • India has had a good export run in line with global trends, witnessing record goods exports of $419 billion, while touching $250 billion in services exports.
    • However, global growth forecasts have now been pared down.
    • Slower global growth, an adverse geopolitical environment, the shadow of recurring waves of the pandemic and prolonged supply chain issues are likely to weigh on export growth this year.

    Taping into opportunities

    • Ukraine and Sri Lanka are major exporters of agricultural products and the vacuum created by their limited presence in global trade will open up agricultural export opportunities for India.
    • This will not only spur overall exports but will also help to support the recovery of the agrarian economy through higher realisations.
    • Tea and wheat: As many as 25 African countries import more than one-third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine and for 15 of them, the share exceeds 50 per cent.
    • Sri Lanka is also a major player in the global tea market and produces around 300 million kg annually.
    • Almost 98 per cent of its annual production is exported.
    • India, the second-largest producer of tea with an annual production of 900 million kg, is in a good position to exploit the opportunity and fill the gap.
    • Textile: Apart from tea and wheat, newer export opportunities have arisen for textiles.
    • Sri Lanka exports $5.42 billion worth of garments and prolonged power cuts in the island nation will hurt its production and export capacity.

    Suggestions

    • 1] Work on non-tariff barriers: One, work on non-tariff barriers for agricultural trade with a special focus on harmonising the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirements.
    • 2] Autonomy in tea sector: To support tea exports, traditional tea boards are seeking a greater role and autonomy for optimising the development, promotion, and research in the sector.
    • Quicker implementation of the proposed Tea Promotion and Development Act is of utmost importance.
    • 3] Integration with global supply chains: India must double down on its integration with global supply chains.The commerce ministry has negotiated a slew of trade deals.
    • 4] Reduce tariff rates for intermediate inputs: Tariff rates for intermediate inputs should be reduced to either zero or should be negligible for India to become an attractive location for assembly activities.
    • 5] Realignment of specialisation patterns: India must persist with the creation of an enabling ecosystem that realigns its specialisation patterns towards labour-intensive processes and product lines.
    • The labour market reforms must be taken to their logical conclusion.
    • 6] Pro-active FDI policy: A continuous and pro-active FDI policy is also critical as foreign capital and technology are key enablers for entry into global production networks even as local firms play a role as subcontractors and suppliers of intermediate inputs to MNEs.
    • 7]Power supply and logistical bottlenecks: Lastly, exports could suffer if basic issues such as availability of power and logistical bottlenecks keep rearing their ugly heads.
    • The Economic Survey 2019 had recommended that low levels of service link costs (costs related to transportation, communication, and other tasks involved in coordinating the activity etc) are prerequisites to strengthen their participation in GVCs.
    • This should not be neglected.

    Conclusion

    If India were to tap export opportunities in developed markets, it must act on the suggestions above.

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  • Absence of Roe v Wade won’t just impact the US

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Comparison Of The Indian Constitutional Scheme With That Of Other Countries,Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Right to privacy

    Mains level: Paper 2- Abortion rights

    Context

    The leak of an initial draft majority opinion of the US Supreme Court voting to overturn the decision in Roe v Wade has sent shockwaves across liberal and conservative quarters alike, globally.

    Background of the Roe v Wade case

    • Right to abortion: While locating the right of privacy within the guarantee of personal liberty enshrined in the fourteenth amendment of the American constitution, Roe embodies a supervening constitutional right to abortion emanating from this right of privacy.
    • The right to abort was held to be a constitutionally protected right within the right of privacy.
    • Roe, the 1973 outcome of an unmarried woman’s crusade for bodily autonomy, had declared overbroad, and consequently unconstitutional, a provision of the Texas Penal Code which permitted only those abortions that were “procured or attempted by medical advice to save the life of the mother”.
    • The decision simultaneously recognised the state’s interest in protecting the life of the foetus as also the life of the mother. 
    • Roe is not only relevant as a progressive trailblazer for reproductive rights in the United States but is also fundamental to constitutional jurisprudence globally for the interpretative tools it employed.

    Implications of overturning Roe v Wade

    • Political considerations vs judicial responsibility: The overturning of Roe is more than the mere abdication of the judicial responsibility to protect individual rights — it signals a dangerous trend of courts making long-standing determinations of legal rights based on transient political considerations.
    • Incursion into women’s right to abort: It would also mean legitimisation of state incursions into women’s right to abort and consequently their right to bodily autonomy and liberty, in addition to forcing them to move to states with enabling laws to procure abortions, leading to issues of access and affordability of abortions.
    • While the impact of Roe’s absence would most profoundly be felt in the US, it is likely to embolden conservative anti-abortion voices across the world.
    • Limits of judicial activism: It will inevitably also raise fundamental questions on the limits of judicial activism aimed at protecting the rights of persons and classes, which do not find explicit mention within a country’s constitutional framework.
    • Possibility of a conservative approach to abortion cases: In 2021, the abortion laws in India underwent substantial changes, with the introduction of the Medical Termination for Pregnancy (Amendment) Act, 2021 which, in addition to destigmatising pregnancies outside marriage by introducing the nomenclature of “any woman or her partner”, also increased the upper gestational limits within which pregnancies are legally terminable.
    • The Act, however, carries ambiguities and leaves room for both judicial and executive interpretation.
    • As cases of subjective determination arise, the Indian judiciary will be called upon to reconcile the right to privacy recognised in Puttaswamy with the permissible limits of abortion in the Act.

    How does Roe v Wade apply in the Indian context?

    • In KS Puttaswamy v Union of India, Justice Chandrachud referred to Roe and Planned Parenthood while reading the right to privacy into the existing framework of constitutionally protected fundamental rights subject to “just, reasonable and fair” restrictions.
    • Recognising derivative rights: In the lifetime of the Indian Supreme Court, recognising derivative rights within the existing framework of fundamental rights has been regularly witnessed — be it rights during arrest and detention, the right to express one’s sexual and gender identity, or rights against harassment at the workplace, to cite a few.
    • Setback to transformative constitutionalism: In the Indian context, the overturning could be seen as a setback to the celebrated doctrine of transformative constitutionalism, which sees the Indian Constitution as a “living document” that moulds, adapts and responds to changing times and circumstances.

    Conclusion

    The likelihood of the overturning of Roe leading to more conservative approaches to judicial interpretation in abortion rights cases, cannot be ruled out.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India – EU

    The challenge for Middle Powers like India, France and Germany

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Challenges for the middle powers

    Context

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to European capitals should help both sides acquire a better understanding of each other’s security concerns. Whether it will fundamentally alter equations remains to be seen.

    New India-EU equation

    • As “Middle Powers”, countries like France, Germany and India should seek policy space for themselves and not be forced into taking positions by the Big Powers — the United States, China and Russia.
    • The EU is understandably concerned about Russian aggressiveness in Europe.
    •  ndia is equally concerned about Chinese aggressiveness in Asia. 
    • Even after Russia has sought to tear down the post-Cold War security structure in Europe, India has stayed the course in its equations both with Russia and the European Union.

    Division of national and group agenda and its implications for India

    • While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the context in which Modi visited Europe and the head of the European Union visited India, the fact is that the agenda at bilateral meetings with individual European countries has generally been very different from the agenda that the EU prefers to focus on.
    • While individual European nations, especially Germany and France, focus on their own strategic and business interests, including defence equipment sales, the EU retains the remit for negotiating trade and investment rules.
    • Problem for India: This division of national and group agendas has often posed a problem for India because individual countries cannot offer bilateral market access in exchange for bilateral defence deals.
    • So the French will sell Rafale jets in the name of strategic partnership but they cannot offer a trade and investment deal that Brussels will not allow Paris to strike with India.
    • While the EU and G7 may now wish to derisk, if not decouple, from aggressively rising China, how much they would be able to do in this regard and what they would be willing to do to help a slowly rising India remains to be seen.

    Way forward

    • For India’s part, it is not clear at the moment how much and what it can unilaterally offer Europe beyond the promise of standing up to China or reducing dependence on Russia.
    • Challenge for the three middle powers lies in combine their “strength and stability” to ensure “peace and tranquillity” in their respective neighbourhoods.
    • If middle powers like Brazil, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Africa and others can work together they may well be able to impose some discipline on the three big powers — China, Russia and the US.

    Conclusion

    At a time when big powers lurking behind in seeking to stabilise and shape the global order middle powers need to act to balance the influence exerted by the big powers.

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  • Monetary Policy Committee Notifications

    Inflation control needs another model

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: CPI and WPI

    Mains level: Paper 3- Need for the review of inflation targeting model

    Context

    At the conclusion of the April meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee had already warned that the focus will henceforth be on inflation. Yesterday it raised the repo rate somewhat sooner than was expected by the market.

     Discourse on inflation engaged in by the western central banks

    • Inflation reflects an excess of output over its ‘natural’ level.
    • Inflation targeting refers to the policy of controlling inflation by raising the interest rate over which the central bank has control, i.e. the rate at which it lends to commercial banks, the ‘repo rate’.
    • This, it is argued, will induce firms to stay their investment plans and reduce inventories, lowering production.
    • As economy-wide output declines, becoming equal to the natural level of output, inflation will cease.
    • This story does not just legitimise a policy of output contraction for inflation but sees it as optimal.
    • The natural level of output itself is the productive counterpart of the natural level of employment, the level that obtains in a freely functioning labour market.
    • So, at the natural level of output, the economy is deemed to be at full employment.
    • Salient in the context is the fact that the natural level of output is unobservable.
    • Hence inflation as a reflection of an “overheating” economy is something that must be taken on trust.

    Inflation control in India

    • Not surprisingly for a theory based on an unobservable variable, the proposition that inflation is due to an overheating economy fares poorly when put to a statistical test for India. 
    • There is not a single demonstration of the empirical validity of the model of inflation presented in the RBI report of 2014, which recommended a move to inflation targeting.
    • On the other hand inflation in India can be explained in terms of the movement of the prices of agricultural goods and, to a lesser extent, imported oil.
    • How effective is monetary policy in controlling inflation: The implication of this finding is damaging for the claim that monetary policy can control inflation, for neither the price of agricultural goods nor that of imported oil is under the central bank’s control.
    • The only route by which monetary policy can, in principle, control inflation is by curbing the growth of non-agricultural output, which would in turn lower the growth of demand for agricultural goods.
    • As the demand for agricultural goods slows, so will inflation, but this comes at the cost of output and employment.
    • At least, this is the theory.
    • Whether this takes place in practice depends upon the extent to which changes in the repo rate are transmitted to commercial bank lending rates.

    Way forward

    • Focus on supply of agricultural goods: The implication for the policymaker that inflation is driven by agricultural goods prices, as is the case in India presently, is that the focus should be on increasing the supply of these goods.
    • Growing per capita income in India has shifted the average consumption basket towards foods rich in minerals, such as fruits and vegetables, and protein, such as milk and meat.
    • But the expansion of the supply of these foods has been lower than the growth in demand for them.
    • So a concerted drive to increase the supply of food other than rice and wheat holds the key.
    • Costly food threatens the health of the population, as people economise on their food intake, and holds back the economy, as only a small part of a household’s budget can be spent on non-agricultural goods.

    Conclusion

    Monetary policy manoeuvres, typified by the RBI’s raising of the repo rate is not an efficient solution for agricultural price-driven inflation. Any lasting inflation control would require placing agricultural production on a steady footing, with continuously rising productivity.

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