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  • Health Sector – UHC, National Health Policy, Family Planning, Health Insurance, etc.

    Extinguishing the tobacco industry’s main narrative

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Health & Education

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Price and tax measures to reduce demand of tobacco

    Context

    There is no doubt that tobacco use is highly detrimental to public health. We have to find the ways and the means to reduce the demand for tobacco among existing as well as aspiring users.

    Impact of tobacco

    • Tobacco is a product that kills more than 13 lakh Indians every year.
    • Annual burden: The annual economic burden from tobacco use is estimated to be ₹177,340 crore which is more than 1% of India’s GDP.
    • About 27 crore people above the age of 15 years and 8.5% of school-going children in the age group 13-15 years use tobacco in some form in India.

    Are price and tax measures effective against tobacco use?

    • When tobacco products become more expensive, people either quit using them or use them less, and it incentivises many to not initiate the habit.
    • Because it hurts both revenue and profits, the tobacco industry, globally, is always devising tactics and narratives that will pre-empt any kind of tax increases on tobacco products.
    • The narrative of “increasing illicit trade” is something the tobacco industry has historically used to pre-empt potential tax increases on tobacco products in most countries around the world.
    • The story is no different in India.
    • In a recent report by the Tobacco Institute of India, it was said that the illicit cigarette volume in India has grown by 44% from 2011 to 2019 while adding that high and increasing tax rates provide a profitable opportunity for tax evasion and encourage growth in illegal trade.
    • A study published in 2018 which used a survey of empty cigarette packs collected from retail outlets across different cities in India estimated that illicit cigarettes constitute 2.7% of the market.
    • The second study published in 2020 used tax-gap analysis to estimate that the percentage of illicit cigarettes was 5.1% in 2009-10 and 6.6% in 2016-17.

    Are taxes and prices key determinants of illicit trade?

    • It is to be noted that taxes and prices are not the key determinants of illicit trade.
    • There is sufficient evidence in the literature on illicit trade in cigarettes that shows tax increases only have a minimal impact, if at all, on illicit trade.
    • There are several countries where tobacco taxes are quite high and yet have low levels of illicit trade, while there are also countries with high levels of illicit trade despite having relatively low tax rates.
    • Several factors such as the quality of tax administration, the strength of the regulatory framework, government commitment to control illicit trade, the strength of governance, social acceptance, and the presence of informal distribution networks are known to play a larger role in determining the scale and the extent of an illicit market.

    Way forward

    • WHO protocol: Eliminating all forms of illicit trade in tobacco products through a package of measures is one of the major objectives of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products under the World Health Organization’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.
    • The Protocol provides the tools and the measures to eliminate or minimise illicit trade which includes strong governance, establishing an international track and trace system, and securing supply chains.
    • India has already ratified the World Health Organization Protocol and it should now show leadership in implementing these measures to effectively address even the relatively lower levels of illicit trade.

    Conclusion

    There is no scientific or public health rationale not to increase tax on tobacco products for unfounded fear of increasing illicit trade.

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  • Health Sector – UHC, National Health Policy, Family Planning, Health Insurance, etc.

    Worrying trends in nutrition indicators in NFHS-5 data

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Health & Education

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Dealing with the nutrition gap

    Context

    The NFHS-5 factsheets for India and all states and Union territories are now out. At first glance, it appears to be a mixed bag — much to cheer about, but concern areas remain.

    Positives from the NFHS-5 survey

    • Change in demographic trends: For the first time since the NFHS 1992-93 survey, the sex ratio is slightly higher among the adult population.
    • Improvement in sex ratio at birth: For the first time in 15 years that the sex ratio at birth has reached 929 (it was 919 for 1,000 males in 2015-16).
    • The total fertility rate has also dropped from 2.2 per cent to a replacement rate of 2 per cent, albeit with not much change in the huge fertility divide between the high and low fertility states.
    • Improvement in literacy level of women: There has been an appreciable improvement in general literacy levels and in the percentage of women and men who have completed 10 years or more of schooling, which has reached 41 per cent and 50.2 per cent respectively.
    • Improvements in health indicators: The health sector deserves credit for achieving a significant improvement in the percentage of institutional births, antenatal care, and children’s immunisation rates.
    • There has also been a consistent drop in neonatal, infant and child mortality rates — a decrease of around 1 per cent per year for neonatal and infant mortality and a 1.6 per cent decrease per year for under five mortality rate.

    Nutrition: Area of concern

    • Increase in anaemic people: India has become a country with more anaemic people since NFHS-4 (2015-16), with anaemia rates rising significantly across age groups, ranging from children below six years, adolescent girls and boys, pregnant women, and women between 15 to 49 years.
    • Why anaemia is a concern? Adverse effects of anaemia affect all age groups — lower physical and cognitive growth and alertness among children and adolescents, and lesser capacity to learn and play, directly impacting their future potential as productive citizens.
    •  Further, anaemia among adolescent girls (59.1 per cent) advances to maternal anaemia and is a major cause of maternal and infant mortality and general morbidity and ill health in a community.
    • The detailed report will explain why a dedicated programme like Anaemia Mukt Bharat which focused on IFA consumption failed to gain impetus.
    • Slow pace of improvement in nutritional indicators: Between NFHS 4 and NFHS 5, the percentage of children below five years who are moderately underweight has reduced from 35.8 per cent to 32.1 per cent.
    • Moderately stunted children have fallen from 38.4 per cent to 35.5 per cent, moderately wasted from 21 per cent to 19.3 per cent and severely wasted have increased slightly from 7.5 per cent to 7.7 per cent.
    • Inadequate diet: The root cause for this is that the percentage of children below two years receiving an adequate diet is a mere 11.3 per cent, increasing marginally from 9.6 per cent in NFHS-4.

    Way forward

    • India’s nutrition programmes must undergo a periodic review.
    • The Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS), which is perceived as the guardian of the nation’s nutritional well-being must reassess itself and address critical intervention gaps, both conceptually and programmatically, and produce rapid outcomes.

    Conclusion

    The nutritional deficit which ought to be considered an indicator of great concern is generally ignored by policymakers and experts. Unless this is addressed, rapid improvement in nutritional indicators cannot happen.

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  • Cyber Security – CERTs, Policy, etc

    How to control cyber crime against women

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Laws, Institutions & Bodies Constituted For The Vulnerable Sections

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: CERT-IN

    Mains level: Paper 2- Cybercrimes against women

    Context

    The open-source app, Bulli Bai, hosted on the web platform GitHub for “auctioning Muslim women” has laid bare the harassment women face online.

    Cybercrimes against women

    • As per the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) there were around 825 million internet users in India at the end of March 2021.
    • The minuscule amount of rogue elements among these internet users have the lethal capability to create havoc in the nation, its polity, economy and the personal and professional lives of citizens.
    • Reluctance to file case: Many times, police officers are approached by anxious parents, days before marriage, seeking help about fake profiles or morphed photographs of their daughters on the internet.
    • A formal police case is thus never lodged.
    • The stark reality is that cyber blackmailing, stalking and bullying is a humongous issue, causing a lot of stress to women and their families.
    •  NCRB statistics show that total cyber crimes in India during 2020 were 50,035, and those specifically against women were only 10,405.

    Steps need to be taken

    • Promt reporting and registration: To find out the true magnitude of cyber crime, prompt reporting and registration are the only options.
    • International cooperation through treaties: There are many international gangs which successfully avoid detection as “servers” used by them are located outside India.
    • International cooperation through formal treaties and informal channels has to be pursued.
    • CERT-IN has been doing commendable work in this regard.
    • Registering a criminal case is the first crucial step as it sets the law into motion, leading to tracing, arresting and prosecuting the rogues even if they are located outside the country.
    • Increase awareness:  There is need to increase awareness about cyber safety and security so that youth, especially young girls and women, take proper precautions while surfing the virtual world.
    • Better policing: As for the police, we do need better infrastructure, more special cyber cells and police stations, regular training, and collaboration with cyber experts on a continuous basis.
    • Strengthening the capability of forensic laboratories can lead to timely collection of evidence of cyber bullying, threatening, morphing and profiling.
    • Many state labs do not have sufficient numbers of cyber experts to seize, preserve and store images of digital evidence essential for securing conviction in courts.
    • The central government has given funds to states and Union territories under the Cyber Crime Prevention Against Women and Children (CCPWC) scheme to start “cyber forensic-cum-training laboratories”.
    • Fast trial: Fast trial of cyber crimes would indeed help. As per the NCRB, during 2020, court trials were completed in only nine cases of cyber blackmailing and threatening with a 66.7 per cent conviction rate — 393 such cases are pending in courts.
    • Systematic training of prosecutors and judicial officers in dealing with cyber crimes would definitely speed up trials.

    Conclusion

    Prompt reporting of cyber crime by citizens, technically proficient investigation by police adequately supported by forensics, and time-bound completion of court trials are essential for catching cyber offenders who are terrorising people, especially women, in the virtual as well as the real world.

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  • What America’s Indo-Pacific policy mean

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Blue Dot network

    Mains level: Paper 2- Indo-Pacific region

    Context

    The visit by United States Secretary of State  Antony J. Blinken to Southeast Asia in December 2021 underscores the importance that is being accorded to this region by the Joe Biden administration.

    Take aways from the visit

    [1] Projecting the US as reliable partner

    • The idea was to present the U.S. as a reliable partner in meeting the challenges that the Indo-Pacific region is facing.
    • For instance, completely aware that the Southeast Asian nations are averse to choosing sides in this U.S.-China competition, Mr. Blinken made it a point to mention that “individual countries will be able to choose their own path and their own partners.

    [2] Tackling China challenge

    • Both China and the U.S. are trying to lure the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) countries to their side — China with its grand economic infrastructure investment deals and the U.S. through recent high profile official visits as well as through the Build Back Better World initiative and Blue Dot Network.
    • In Southeast Asia, the U.S.-China competition is most visible in two areas; one is the South China Sea and the second is the investment in fulfilling the infrastructure development needs of Southeast Asian countries.
    • The U.S. has continued its Freedom of Navigation operations in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.
    • In his remarks in Indonesia, Mr. Blinken stressed America’s determination “to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where Beijing’s aggressive actions there threaten the movement of more than $3 trillion worth of commerce every year”.

    [3] Closing the gap on infrastructure

    • Southeast Asia has been one of the top recipients of Chinese investments under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • How these investments have driven countries such as Cambodia and Laos to do China’s bidding in the ASEAN even at the cost of compromising ASEAN’s unity is a known fact.
    • Mr. Blinken reiterated that the U.S. remains committed to help close the gap on infrastructure.
    • The infrastructure coordination group launched by the Quad members is seeking to catalyse even more investment and is looking to partner with Southeast Asia on infrastructure and many other shared priorities.
    • Washington is promising to do more under the Build Back Better World initiative and the Blue Dot Network.

    Way forward

    • The ASEAN countries, even after the release of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, do not have a uniform approach when it comes to dealing with the U.S. and China.
    • These differing approaches are also challenging the much vaunted ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Though external players will have a limited role in ensuring that the unity within ASEAN is restored, providing proper alternative models of investments for development in sectors such as infrastructure, digital economy, supply chain, and health for the Southeast Asian nations will be critical.

    Conclusion

    The economic framework, investment plans and promises outlined need to be made operational quickly if Washington is to show that it is indeed serious about sustained commitment toward the Indo-Pacific.

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  • NGOs vs. GoI: The Conflicts and Scrutinies

    Challenges facing the Civil Society Organisations

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Regulatory challenges faced by civil society organisations

    Context

    Recently, the Missionaries of Charity established by Nobel Laureate Mother Teresa was in the news for the cancellation of its permission under the FCRA.

    Detailed scrutiny delaying permission for grant

    • The levels of due diligence and the information sought on the one hand and the annual declarations to be given by the board members of civil society organisations on the other have increased significantly.
    • The mandatory opening of bank accounts for foreign contributions has been centralised in one branch of the State Bank of India.
    • The linking of Permanent Account Number (PAN), Aadhaar number and mapping it with the bank account/s of the individual board members are happening.
    • The registrations under Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act (FCRA) have been long necessitated in order to undertake due diligence of the causes for which the organisation is working for and also to have a handle on the traceability of funds.
    • The dashboard shows a little under 17,000 active organisations — which have either got permission or will know their fate by March 2022, while around 33,000 organisations have either lost their permission or it has expired.

    Various restrictions

    • Restriction on sub-grant: In the past, the amendments in the FCRA that restricted the ability to sub-grant, killed many of the niche organisations working in very remote areas which had no direct access to international funding but were doing it through larger non-governmental organisations.
    • Restriction on administrative expenses: The other amendment restricting the proportion of expenses on administration almost choked organisations that worked for the rights of the disposed.
    • The increasing level of surveillance type of data sought has resulted in many organisations losing people on their governance structure and resulting in problems in funding.

    Why do we need Civil Society Organisations?

    • We need them because they usually work on what can be called an unreasonable agenda.
    • This unreasonableness falls in three large verticals.
    • [1] Ensuring efficiency and accountability from state: The first is that they ask for greater efficiency, delivery and accountability from the state.
    • Whether is it about rehabilitation and compensation in the case of land acquisition or setting up a great accountability framework as was done through the movement led by the Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan for the Right to Information.
    • [2] Correcting extractive nature of market: The second vertical is in correcting the extractive nature of markets.
    • The groups asking for environmental accountability are looking at inter-generational justice on a matter that is not very precisely measurable but is palpable.
    • [3] Picking up niche causes: The third is basically picking up causes that are so niche that it is beyond the capability of the state to come up with such initiatives.
    • For example, a drama school set up in a village called Heggodu, Karnataka, or an idea of distributing clothing for work as done by Goonj.
    • These initiatives cannot be put into specific business plans, spreadsheets or government schemes.
    • They, therefore, need a grant-based, cause-based revenue stream model.

    Should these organisations accept foreign funding?

    • Causes have no boundaries: “Causes” have no boundaries and funding for such socially desirable belief systems could come from beyond borders.
    • Some causes carried out by organisations such as Doctors Without Borders, or Reporters Without Borders are by definition international in nature.
    • Similar is the case with the Jaipur foot provided by the Bhagwan Mahaveer Viklang Sahayata Samiti.
    • The humanitarian work by the Missionaries of Charity is beyond the capability of a state.
    • Such causes do not have a rational basis to be explained in terms of a financial model; how do you put a price tag to press freedom?
    • The niche funding will happen from agencies that may be beyond the borders.
    • The duality of welcoming foreign investments (which takes away capital gains and dividends) while actively discouraging foreign aid to charities is staring us in the face.

    Conclusion

    The government needs to ensure that the regulations do not create hurdles for the civil society organisations in their functioning and receiving fundings.

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  • Climate Change Negotiations – UNFCCC, COP, Other Conventions and Protocols

    A partnership to carry India into net-zero future

    op-ed snap | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Commitment to net-zero emission targets

    Mains level: Paper 3- Transition towards clean energy

    Context

    At a time when our planet faces an existential crisis, there is little doubt that we need innovative, scientific and urgent steps to secure humanity’s future.

    India’s climate commitment

    • We need to act decisively to reach global net-zero, restricting future cumulative emissions to the remaining carbon budget — as COP26 noted — if the rise in temperature is to remain within the limits of the Paris Agreement.
    • At COP26, India announced its climate commitments — the “Panchamrit”, including a commitment to reach net-zero by 2070.
    • India’s announcement of its net-zero goal is a major step considering that our country is not the cause of global warming.
    • Its historical cumulative emissions are a mere 4.37 per cent of the world’s total. 

    India’s steps to achieve the targets

    [1] India’s renewable energy targets and achievements

    • India’s renewable energy targets have steadily become more ambitious, from the 175 GW by 2022 declared at Paris, to 450 GW by 2030 at the UN Climate Summit, and now 500 GW by 2030, announced at COP26.
    • India has also announced the target of 50 per cent installed power generation capacity from non-fossil energy sources by 2030, raising the existing target of 40 per cent, which has already been almost achieved.
    • Renewable technologies: India will not lag in terms of new cutting-edge renewable technologies and has already announced a Hydrogen Energy Mission for grey and green hydrogen.
    • In energy efficiency, the market-based scheme of Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) has avoided 92 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions during its first and second cycles.

    [2] India’s E-mobility transtion

    • FAME: India is accelerating its e-mobility transition with the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles Scheme to support the electric vehicle market development and enable its manufacturing ecosystem to achieve self-sustenance.
    • Incentives for customers and companies: The government has also announced a slew of incentives for customers and companies to promote e-vehicles.
    • Adoption of BS-VI: India leapfrogged from Bharat Stage-IV (BS-IV) to Bharat Stage-VI (BS-VI) emission norms by April 1, 2020.
    • Scrapping policy: A voluntary vehicle scrapping policy to phase out old and unfit vehicles now complements these schemes.
    • Electrification of railway routes: Indian Railways is charging ahead, targeting the full electrification of all broad-gauge routes by 2023.

    [3] Ujjwala Yojana and UJALA

    • The Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana has benefitted 88 million households with LPG connections.
    • More than 367 million LED bulbs have been distributed under the UJALA scheme, leading to energy savings of more than 47 billion units of electricity per year and a reduction of 38.6 million tonnes of CO2 per year.
    • With these and many other initiatives, India has already achieved a reduction of 24 per cent in the emission intensity of its GDP between 2005 and 2016, and is on track to meet its target of 33 to 35 per cent by 2030.

    Role of private sector

    • Since industries also contribute to GHG emissions, any climate action will need to reduce or offset emissions that emerge from industrial and commercial activity.
    • The public and private sectors in India are already playing a key role in meeting the climate challenge, helped by growing customer and investor awareness, as well as increasing regulatory and disclosure requirements.
    • Enterprises are well-positioned to not just adapt to but also gain from the low-carbon transition.
    • The low-carbon transition challenge is bigger for companies that are largely coal-powered and contribute more than half of our country’s emissions.
    • The business fraternity must make the best possible use of this opportunity to invest in climate technologies and expand the use of renewable energy sources.
    • The Indian cement industry has taken pioneering measures and achieved one of the biggest sectoral low carbon milestones worldwide.

    Way forward

    • India’s journey on the low-carbon pathway towards net-zero requires the active participation of all stakeholders.
    • Sustainable lifestyles and climate justice are at the core of this journey.

    Conclusion

    With cooperation from the private sector, India will be able to responsibly use its fair share of the global carbon space and contribute to reaching the global net-zero goal to build a more environmentally sustainable planet.

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  • Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

    A reality check on great CAPEX expectations

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 3- Capex boom in India

    Context

    Economists are predicting a potential virtuous capital investments (capex) cycle to kick in globally as we emerge from the pandemic.

    Why do analysts think that capital investment cycle is about to start?

    • Less leveraged: Corporates are less leveraged today compared to 2008.
    • Indian corporates repaid debts of more than Rs 1.5 trillion.
    • Fiscal and monetary support: Companies are also more confident of durable fiscal and monetary support.
    • Increased savings: Households have large excess savings built during Covid — $1.7 trillion in the US and roughly $300 billion in India as per a UBS report.
    • Cash: Lastly, corporates are sitting on a large cash pile – S&P 500 firms’ cash has soared from $1 trillion pre-pandemic to $1.5 trillion now.

    Why capex wave is difficult in India?

    • Fall in capital formation: India’s fixed capital formation rate has steadily fallen from 36 per cent of GDP in 2008 to 26 per cent in 2020.
    • For a set of 718 listed companies for which data is consistently available from 2005, the capex growth rate has decreased from 7 per cent in 2008 to around 2 per cent in 2020.
    • Low return on invested capital: The return on invested capital in FY21 is still low at 2-3 per cent compared with 16-18 per cent returns in 2005-08.
    • Structural issues: Land acquisition is still tough, changes to labour laws have been slow, and reform uncertainty has resurfaced with the rollback of the agriculture reform laws.
    • Discouraging current data: As per CMIE data, the quarter ending in June 2021 saw Rs 2.72 lakh crore worth of new projects announced. This fell to Rs 2.22 lakh crore for the September 2021 quarter.
    • This is much below the average of Rs 4 lakh crore a quarter of new project announcements during 2018 and 2019.
    • Further, new projects are concentrated in fewer industries (power, and technology) with the top three accounting for 44 per cent of the total of new projects announced.
    • Low capacity utilisation: At the same time, capacity utilisation for corporate India is at an all-time low.
    • From a peak of 83 per cent in 2010, when capex was running hot, utilisation levels declined to 70 per cent just before the pandemic, and further to 60 per cent in June 2021 as per the RBI’s latest OBICUS data.
    • Capex is funded either from fresh debt or equity issues or from accumulated cash. Large firms are repaying debt.

    Conclusion

    It is too early in the cycle to predict anything with confidence, but we need more evidence to predict a capex cycle.

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  • Selective alignment to universal engagement of Indian diplomacy

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- India's engagement with the world

    Context

    In 2021, Indian diplomacy was characterised by a readiness to deal with friends and foes alike.

    Challenges faced by India diplomacy in 2021

    • The US leadership change: Coping with the change from President Donald Trump to President Joe Biden and the consequent changes in U.S. policy were big enough to keep the world leaders on tenterhooks.
    • Pandemic:  With the increased onslaught of the pandemic, India suddenly became the epicentre of the tragedy.
    • The exposure of the inefficiency of India’s health system and put the country in the defensive and weakened its credibility as it tried to contribute to the resolution of global issues.
    • Aggression by China: For India, the biggest preoccupation of 2021 was the effort to get China to disengage in areas in Ladakh.
    • Dialogue, military preparedness and economic pressure met with limited success.
    • Afghanistan crisis: Afghanistan turned out to be a bigger crisis than expected, with the Taliban’s walkover in Kabul.
    • Bringing some civility to the Taliban in Kabul became a high priority in the face of a Pakistan-China-Taliban axis with some support from Russia and Iran.
    • Issue of permanent membership of the UN Security Council: Unprecedented in the history of the UN, an event at the Security Council was chaired by the Prime Minister.
    • Significant inputs were provided during discussions on issues like maritime security, peacekeeping and anti-terrorism for active consideration in the future.
    • Although it is illusory to believe that the way has been cleared for India’s permanent membership of the Security Council, India’s diplomatic capabilities and its commitment to the UN have demonstrated yet again.

    What marks the change in the style of Indian diplomacy?

    • From selective alignment, India moved to universal engagement, even to the extent of convening meetings with antagonists.
    • Engagements with the U.S. went beyond familiarisation with the new government to increased commitment to Quad and acceptance of AUKUS and formation of the ‘western Quad’, with the U.S., Israel and the UAE.
    • Engagement with Russia: Major agreements were signed with Russia, despite the American threat of CAATSA against S-400 missiles and the Russian inclination to align with China in the days to come.
    • The engagement with China at the level of commanders and diplomats was intense, and ministerial interaction continued even when China tore up many fundamental agreements that sustained the dialogue for many years.
    • Patience, diligence and firmness: India attended a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting, where a sub-group led by China took its own decisions on Afghanistan.
    • We also attended a meeting of Russia, China and India.
    • Perhaps because of the unique geopolitical situation, India gave particular importance to its presidency of the UN Security Council in August 2021.
    • Engagement with Myanmar: The Foreign Secretary’s visit to Myanmar to engage the military junta at a time when opposition leaders are in prison may raise eyebrows in many countries, but this is another instance of India’s readiness to engage those in power to explore possibilities of friendship and co-operation.
    •  The intention is to prevent China from having a field day in Myanmar.

    Conclusion

    Sadly, the extraordinary efforts made by India have not been fruitful in the cases of China and Afghanistan.  But India’s new style of diplomacy will have an impact in shaping the world of the future.

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  • Renewable Energy – Wind, Tidal, Geothermal, etc.

    Preparing for a green energy shift in 2022

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways Etc.

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 3- Challenges in transition to clean energy

    Context

    Political leaders find themselves currently amid a messy reality. The seemingly “irresistible force” for clean energy has met, it would appear, the “immovable object” of an embedded fossil fuel energy system.

    Changes in the energy sector in 2021

    • Commitment to Net-zero: One hundred and thirty-three countries pledged to a “net-zero carbon emissions date” and most governments, corporates and civic entities have shown determination to “phase down” and eventually phase out fossil fuels from their energy basket.
    • Price volatility: The petroleum market seesawed and was expectedly volatile.
    • High price: Natural gas prices reached stratospheric levels as demand exceeded supplies and geopolitics compounded the imbalance. 

    Five trends that will shape the emergent energy landscape

    [1] Transition to clean energy will be long and expensive

    • Redesign and rebuilding: The fossil fuel-based economic system will have to be redesigned and, in parts, rebuilt for clean energy to achieve scale.
    • The process will take decades and require massive capital infusion.
    • No country or multilateral institution can finance this transition individually.
    • The world needs to collaborate: The world will have to collaborate and if it fails to do so, the financing deficit will push back the transition even further.

    [2] Fossil fuels will dominate the energy basket during the transition

    • Fossil fuels will dominate the energy basket during this transition phase.
    • Contributing factors: As has been the case so far, its market will be defined by the “fundamentals” of demand, supply and geopolitics and the “non-fundamentals” of exchange rates and speculative trade.
    • The price movements will be sharp, volatile and unexpected.

    [3] The resurgence of market influence of OPEC plus after private companies move beyond fossil fuel

    • The “ OPEC plus” will resurge in market influence.
    • The low-cost, high resource petrostates (Saudi Arabia, the Gulf nations, Iraq, Iran, Russia) will, in particular, gain greater control over the petroleum market as private companies move beyond fossils under pressure from shareholders and regulators.

    [4] Transition will create new centres of energy power

    • The Democratic Republic of Congo controls, more than 50 per cent of the global supply of cobalt; Australia holds a comparably large share of the lithium market; and China controls the mining, processing and refining of rare earth minerals.
    • It is difficult to tell how and when these countries will exercise their market power but it is clear that the “green transition” will create new centres of energy power.

    [5] Nationalism and political opportunism will influence energy policy

    • The US and China are currently embroiled in a “Cold War” over technology, trade, cyber issues and the South China Sea.
    • The US and China appear to be in a similar face-off. But that has not come in the way of their energy relations.
    • A few weeks ago, the two countries decided to coordinate the release of oil stocks from their strategic reserves to cool off the oil market.
    • The underlying reality is that national self-interest and short-term political ambition will be the defining determinant of future energy supply relations cutting across values and rhetoric.

    Suggestions for India

    • Nurture relations with traditional suppliers: India must assiduously nurture relations with our traditional suppliers of oil and gas.
    • It must not assume their role in the energy market will diminish.
    • Increase storage capacity of strategic reserves: It should accelerate the build-up of the storage capacity for oil and gas; the latter to hold strategic oil reserves, the former to store gas for inter alia conversion to blue hydrogen.
    • Ecosystem for search and development of minerals required for clean energy: It must create a facilitative ecosystem for the search and development of the minerals and metals required for clean energy.
    • Clean energy supply chain: It should create a “clean energy aatmanirbhar supply chain”.

    Conclusion

    The green transition must not lead to import dependency on raw minerals and manufactured inputs, especially from China. The current policy to incentivise the manufacture of semiconductors is a step in the right direction.

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  • Electoral Reforms In India

    Why EC can’t delay upcoming polls

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Constitutional Bodies

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Powers of Election Commission

    Context

    Ever since the Allahabad High Court urged the Election Commission of India to consider banning all political rallies or postponing the upcoming Assembly elections due to the increasing threat of Omicron, the focus of debate has shifted to the EC.

    Why and when does the Election Commission clubs the elections?

    • To avoid the influence of result: As per practice, the EC clubs all elections that are so close to each other to ensure that the results in one state do not influence the voters in the state going to the polls soon after.
    • Earliest date: The earliest due date of a state determines the poll dates for all the clubbed states.
    • No delay allowed: The EC cannot delay an election even by a day, although it can advance it by up to six months.
    • The Assembly elections of five states are due in the early months of 2022, four of these in March itself — Goa (by March 15), Manipur (March 19), Uttarakhand (March 23) and Punjab (March 27).
    • The fifth — UP — is due by May 14.
    • Goa being the earliest, we must have all five elections completed before March 15.

    Why EC cannot postpone the elections?

    • Violation of Constitution: Postponing elections is not in the Election Commission’s hands at all and would be a violation of the constitutional mandate that gives every Vidhan Sabha a fixed term.
    • As soon as the term is over, the House stands dissolved automatically.
    • The term of the House cannot be extended except in an emergency declared by Parliament, which the Constitution restricts to only two situations — war and breakdown of law and order.
    • In the seven decades of our electoral history, this has happened only three times — in Assam, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir — in insurgency situations.

    Way forward: Strict enforcement of guidelines

    • Before the Bihar elections of 2020, the EC had issued detailed guidelines based on its observation of other countries that conducted elections that year, like South Korea and Sri Lanka.
    • Reduction of the number of electors: These guidelines included the reduction of the number of electors per polling booth from 1,500 to 1,000, to prevent over-crowding, which required the addition of 33,797 auxiliary polling stations.
    • Covid-sensitive capacity building: The guidelines also included Covid-sensitive capacity-building of election officials.
    • Postal ballot option: The ECI also extended the postal ballot option to senior citizens over the age of 80, Covid-positive patients, persons with disabilities and voters in essential services.
    • Virtual campaigning: Virtual campaigning was also encouraged to stop election rallies contributing to Covid.
    • Besides the standard social distancing and sanitising norms, voters were provided with gloves to touch the EVMs.
    • To avoid crowding at the counting centres, the counting tables were reduced from 14 to seven per assembly constituency.

    Consider the question “What are the challenges in postponing the Assembly elections beyond the fixed terms of the Assembly? Suggest the way forward.”

    Conclusion

    This election is an opportunity for the EC to redeem its image. More importantly, it must guard itself against the trap of postponing the polls under any persuasion.

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