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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Afghanistan

    India must rethink ‘wait and watch’ Afghan policy

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Context

    After the collapse of the government in Kabul, India has adopted a wait and watch approach in its dealing with the Taliban.

    Taliban’s position in Afghanistan

    • The Taliban grip over Afghanistan will only strengthen unless there is a popular revolt against it in the cities.
    • The Panjshiri defiance is unlikely to go anywhere without considerable and abiding support from the US and a firm commitment from Tajikistan.
    • After a talk between leaders of the extinguished Afghan Republic and the Taliban on central government formation, there has been no news of the process for more than a week.
    • There is continuous pressure on Taliban leaders and Pakistan from the Western donor community for the formation of a government acceptable to it.
    • Some Taliban leaders would want financial flows to continue to prevent a collapse of the Afghan economy.

    The approach of the international community toward the Taliban

    • Assurances would be sought from the Taliban not only by the West but also by Russia and China that there will be no attempt to put in place the 1990s practices of the Islamic Emirate on gender issues and the more medieval manifestations of the Sharia.
    • Commitment to anti-terrorism: US will keep close scrutiny on the Taliban to honor its commitment to al Qaeda and will demand that it continues to cooperate on ISIS-K extermination, an objective shared by Russia.
    • Diplomatic recognition of a Taliban government, including allowing it to occupy the United Nations seat in the forthcoming future will depend on its acceptability.
    • However, the US and EU will not be reluctant to maintain open and direct contact with a Taliban government.

    Issues with India’s wait and watch policy

    • India continues to “wait and watch” Afghan developments.
    • What is being overlooked is that “strategic patience” cannot be an alibi for inaction.
    • The invocation of the British Raj policy of “masterly inactivity” by some scholars defies logic for it applied in a completely different context.
    • Recognition v. legitimacy: Besides, while diplomatic recognition or its denial is a specific act of a country in inter-state relations, “legitimacy” is more applicable in the internal jurisdiction of countries.
    • India “waited and watched” Afghan developments from the sidelines, at least since the US-Taliban deal.
    • How long will India continue to “wait and watch”?

    Way forward

    • Establish open contact: To explore the Taliban’s approaches towards India there is an obvious need to establish open and direct contacts with it.
    • That will also allow India to convey its red lines.
    • This should not be confused with diplomatic recognition.
    • Welcome Afghans: The establishment of open contacts with the Taliban will not be contradictory to actively welcome those Afghans, irrespective of their faith, who are closely connected with India.

    Consider the question “What are the implications of the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan for India? What should be India’s approach in dealing with the Taliban controlled Afghanistan?”

    Conclusion

    It would damage India’s reputation greatly and into the future, if perceptions grow, as they are growing, that India has abandoned its friends in Afghanistan at the time of their need.

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  • Freedom of Speech – Defamation, Sedition, etc.

    Freedom of Movement and Residence

    | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Indian Constitution – historical underpinnings, evolution, features, amendments, significant provisions and basic structure

    The rights to free movement and residence across India cannot be curtailed on flimsy grounds, a Bench of Justices Indira Banerjee and V. Ramasubramanian held in a judgment.

    Freedom of Movement and Residence

    • Article 19(1)(d) and (e) of the Indian Constitution guarantees to every citizen of India right to move freely throughout the territory of India and to reside and settle in any Part of the of the Territory of India.
    • This right is subject to reasonable restrictions imposed by law in the interest of the general public or for the protection of the interests of any Scheduled Tribes.

    (A) Freedom of Movement under Article 19(1)(d)

    • All Citizens of India have the right “to move freely throughout the territory of India.
    • This Right is, however subject to reasonable restrictions mentioned under Article 19(5).

    Restrictions:

    • This clause (5) empowers the State to impose reasonable restrictions in the interest of the general public or for the protection of the interest of any Scheduled Tribe.
    • Kharak Singh V. State of UP (1963) Case: The Supreme Court held that the right to move freely throughout the territory of India means the right of locomotion which connotes the right to move wherever one likes, and however one likes.
    • State of UP V. Kaushalya Case (1964):  In this case, the Supreme court held that the right of movement of prostitutes may be restricted on grounds of Public Health and in the interest of Public Morals.

    (B) Freedom of Resident under Article 19(1)(e)

    • Article 19(1)(e) of the Indian Constitution guarantees to every citizen of India, the right “to reside and settle in any part of the territory of India”.
    • This right is subjected to reasonable restrictions which may be imposed by the State in the interest of the general public or for the protection of the interest of any Scheduled Tribe.

    Some facts

    • The Freedom of Movement and Residence apply only to citizens of India and not the Foreigners.
    • A foreigner cannot claim the right to reside and settle in the country as guaranteed by Article Article 19(1)(e).
    • The Government of India has the power to expel foreigners from India.

    Why in news, now?

    • The Supreme Court has held that the power of the State to pass an externment order or a direction barring certain people entry to specified areas should be exercised only in “exceptional cases”.
    • The court said externment orders have their use in maintaining law and order.
    • However, they cannot be employed as a vindictive or retaliatory measure.
    • The drastic action of externment should only be taken in exceptional cases, to maintain law and order in a locality and/or prevent breach of public tranquility and peace, the court noted.

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    Back2Basics: Article 19

    Article 19(1) states that All citizens shall have the right:

    • (a) to freedom of speech and expression;
    • (b) to assemble peaceably and without arms;
    • (c) to form associations or unions;
    • (d) to move freely throughout the territory of India;
    • (e) to reside and settle in any part of the territory of India; and
    • (f) omitted
    • (g) to practice any profession, or to carry on any occupation, trade, or business

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Myanmar

    China-Myanmar New Passage

    | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

    The shipments on a newly-launched railway line under the China-Myanmar New Passage from the Myanmar border to the key commercial hub of Chengdu in western China have started.

    China-Myanmar New Passage

    • The passage provides China a new road-rail transportation channel to the Indian Ocean, were delivered last week, state media reported on Tuesday.
    • The transport corridor involves a sea-road-rail link.
    • It connects the logistics lines of Singapore, Myanmar, and China, and is currently the most convenient land and sea channel linking the Indian Ocean with southwest China.
    • Goods from Singapore reached Yangon Port, arriving by ship through the Andaman Sea of the northeastern Indian Ocean, and were then transported by road to Lincang on the Chinese side of the Myanmar-China border in Yunnan province.
    • The new railway line that runs from the border town of Lincang to Chengdu, a key trade hub in western China, completes the corridor.

    Why does India need to be watchful?

    • From the perspective of security, India’s border with Myanmar has historically presented serious security challenges.
    • Chinese troops had used the Myanmar route to threaten India’s North-eastern States prior to the 1962 war.
    • In the run-up to the India-China war of 1962, Chinese troops had commissioned local muleteers in Northern Myanmar to facilitate the movement of troops and war logistics to challenge India’s Northeast.

    Way forward

    • The work on infrastructure projects in India’s Northeastern States needs to be expedited to ensure speedy mobilization of India’s own troops to face different contingencies.
    • Monitoring of developments including deployment of space assets to ensure that India is not caught unaware would be desirable.
    • Most importantly, India on its part needs to substantially step up its own game in Myanmar and proactively engage Myanmar in the realm of the infrastructure upgrade.

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  • Climate Change Impact on India and World – International Reports, Key Observations, etc.

    Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP)

    | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 1: Important Geophysical Phenomena

    The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is drafting a Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP) in a bid to tackle climate challenges.

    What is the Mumbai Climate Action Plan?

    • Amid warnings of climate change leading to extreme weather events in the city, the civic body has started preparing the Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP).
    • It will look at climate resilience with mitigation and adaptation strategies by focusing on six areas —
    1. Sustainable waste management
    2. Urban greening and Biodiversity
    3. Urban flooding and Water Resource Management
    4. Building Energy Efficiency
    5. Air Quality and
    6. Sustainable Mobility
    • The plan is expected to be ready by November ahead of the United Nations Climate Change (COP26) conference at Glasgow, Scotland.

    Why does Mumbai need a climate action plan?

    Mumbai’s climate action plan will help set a vision and implement strategies to fight these climate challenges with mitigation and adaptation steps.

    • Flash floods: As per a study conducted by the World Resource Institute (WRI) India, the city will face two major climate challenges — the rise in temperature, and extreme rain events which will lead to flooding.
    • Temperature rise: The city has seen a constant rise in temperature after 2007, and a substantial increase in intense rainfall and storm events in the last five years.
    • Sea level rise: A recent report from the IPCC has warned that at least 12 Indian coastal cities including Mumbai will face a sea rise of 0.1 metres to 0.3 metres in the next three decades due to climate change.

    What is the greenhouse gas emission of the city?

    • The data show that Mumbai’s greenhouse gas emission was 34.3 million tonnes in 2019, and of which 24.23 million tonnes or 71 per cent came from the energy sector which is mainly based on coal.
    • At least 24 per cent or 82,21,902 tonnes is from transport, and the remaining 5 per cent or 18,53,741 tonnes from solid waste management.
    • The maximum contribution from the energy sector was mainly due to domestic and commercial usage of electricity.
    • As per the data, 95 percent of Mumbai’s electricity is coal-based and needs to be shifted to renewable energy to bring down emissions.

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  • Zoonotic Diseases: Medical Sciences Involved & Preventive Measures

    West Nile Virus outbreak in Russia

    Prelims Only | Science Tech | Mains Paper 3: Awareness in various sc and tech fields

    Russia warned of a possible increase in West Nile virus infections this autumn as mild temperatures and heavy precipitation create favorable conditions for the mosquitos that carry it.

    West Nile virus (WNV)

    • WNV is mainly transmitted through mosquito bites and can lead to fatal neurological diseases in humans, although most people infected never develop any symptoms.
    • Cases of WNV occur during mosquito season, which starts in the summer and continues through fall.

    Its origin

    • Originally from Africa, the WNV has spread to Europe, Asia, and North America.
    • It was first isolated in a woman in the West Nile district of Uganda in 1937.
    • It was identified in birds in the Nile delta region in 1953.
    • Before 1997, WNV was not considered pathogenic for birds.
    • Human infections attributable to WNV have been reported in many countries for over 50 years.

    Symptoms

    • Infected persons usually have no symptoms or mild symptoms.
    • Some of the symptoms include fever, headache, body aches, skin rash, and swollen lymph glands.
    • They can last a few days to several weeks and usually, go away on their own.
    • Prolonged illness may cause inflammation of the brain, called encephalitis, or inflammation of the tissue that surrounds the brain and spinal cord, called meningitis.

    Treatment

    • There is no vaccine against the virus in humans although one exists for horses, the WHO says.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Afghanistan

    Operation Devi Shakti

    | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

    India has termed the evacuation operation from Afghanistan in the backdrop of the Taliban’s takeover of the country last week as “Operation Devi Shakti”.

    Operation Devi Shakti

    • Operation Devi Shakti is an ongoing operation of the Indian Armed Forces to evacuate Indian citizens and foreign nationals after the fall of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan to the Taliban.

    Major evacuations undertaken

    • Up till now, around 400 individuals from Kabul have been evacuated that covered Indian citizens as well as Afghan nationals including Sikhs and Hindus of Afghanistan.
    • Hundreds of Indian nationals have to be taken out of Kabul which is now under the Taliban’s control.
    • India is airlifting its citizens through Dushanbe in Tajikistan and Qatar.
    • The Indian Air Force has already evacuated around many passengers including its Ambassador to Afghanistan and all other diplomats.

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  • Climate Change Negotiations – UNFCCC, COP, Other Conventions and Protocols

    Nationally Determined Contributions

    | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    Context

    Despite accomplishments, global pressures are intensifying on India to commit more towards the Conference of the Parties (COP26), scheduled for November 2021 in Glasgow.

    India’s accomplishments

    • At the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (December 2020), India was the only G20 nation compliant with the agreement.
    • India has been ranked within the top 10 for two years consecutively in the Climate Change Performance Index.
    • The Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All (UJALA) scheme is the world’s largest zero-subsidy LED bulb programme for domestic consumers.
    •  India provided leadership for setting up the International Solar Alliance, a coalition of solar-resource-rich countries, and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.

    Why it is unfair to pressure India on climate action

    We can attempt to answer the question by comparing the achievements of other countries vis-à-vis India’s performance.

    • Historical perspective: World Bank data for CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) over two decades since the Kyoto protocol informs that at the current rate, both China and the U.S. could emit five times more than India in 2030.
    • The U.K.’s emission levels could be more than 1.5 times that of India.
    • Brazil, with its dense forests, may end up at similar levels.
    • Latest efforts: Last year, China, the world’s largest GHG emitter, joined the ‘race to zero’ and targets carbon neutrality by 2060.
    • Interestingly, it hopes to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 for bending the emissions curve.
    • Recently, the U.S. rejoined the Paris Agreement and committed to reducing emissions by 50%-52% in 2030 and reaching net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050.
    • The French government, during the novel coronavirus pandemic, set green conditions for bailing out its aviation industry.
    • However, the analysts say that no baseline for reducing emissions from domestic flights was fixed.
    • In Australia, complicated domestic politics prevented them from addressing the problem, despite the country being vulnerable, and stretches of the famous Great Barrier Reef having died in recent years.

    India’s performance

    • Exceeding the NDC commitment: India is on track (as reports/documents show) to meet and exceed the NDC commitment to achieve 40% electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based sources by 2030.
    • Reduction in emission intensity of GDP: Against the voluntary declaration for reducing the emission intensity of GDP by 20%-25% by 2020, India has reduced it by 24% between 2005-2016.
    • More importantly, we achieved these targets with around 2% out of the U.S.$100 billion committed to developing nations in Copenhagen (2009), realised by 2015.
    • Renewable energy expansion: India is implementing one of the most extensive renewable energy expansion programmes to achieve 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030.
    • Investment in green measures: As part of the fiscal stimulus after the pandemic, the Government announced several green measures, including:
    • a $26.5-billion investment in biogas and cleaner fuels,
    • $3.5 billion in incentives for producing efficient solar photovoltaic (PV)
    • and advanced chemistry cell battery, and $780 million towards an afforestation programme.
    •  India’s contribution to global emissions is well below its equitable share of the worldwide carbon budget by any equity criterion.

    Conclusion

    To sum up, India has indeed walked the talk. Other countries must deliver on their promises early and demonstrate tangible results ahead of COP26.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Afghanistan

    Taliban and new realpolitik

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Context

    As the last American soldiers fly out of Kabul airport and the world adapts to the return of the Taliban, three uncomfortable but enduring features of international politics have come into sharp focus.

    1) The normalisation of the Taliban by the International community

    • That victories on the battlefield have political consequences is one of the fundamental features of international politics.
    • There is no reason for India to be surprised at the rapid normalisation of the Taliban by the international community.
    • Whether it likes the new and victorious sovereign or not, a government has the obligation to secure its national interests — ranging from the protection of its citizens and property to maintaining the regional balance of power.
    • India is not immune to this essential principle of international relations and will find ways to protect its stakes in Afghanistan under Taliban rule.

    2) Future U.S. relations with the Taliban

    • The second enduring feature of world politics — that there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.
    • Convergence of interests: The US would want to explore if the Taliban can help secure long-term American interests in preventing a regrouping of international terror outfits like the al Qaeda and ISIS in Afghanistan.
    • The Taliban on the other hand would want American and Western support in rebuilding Afghanistan.
    • It is by no means clear if such a deal can be clinched, given the big risks it presents to both sides.
    • The US engagement with the Taliban to counter the ISIS-K has been met with derision across the world.
    • Critics say all these groups are part of the same school of terror, driven by similar religious zeal and nurtured in Pakistan’s sanctuaries.

    3) Exploit the differences between adversaries: Way forward for India

    • The third feature of international politics is that differences even among the closest of friends are natural and always offer openings to adversaries.
    • For India, the main interest is in preventing Afghan soil from being used by anti-India terror groups.
    • At least a section of the Taliban is eager to continue political and commercial engagement with India.
    • This is part of a natural quest for a diversified set of international partnerships.
    • India would be right to wait patiently on the Taliban’s ability to deliver on these promises and stand up against the Pakistan army’s pressures to keep India out.
    • Exploit the contradictions: India should not rule out contradictions between Pakistan and the terror groups it has nurtured as well as among various jihadi organisations.
    • Despite its powerful appeal, religious ideology has failed to build durable political coalitions within and across nations.

    Conclusion

    Given this history, it is unwise for Delhi to paint the external challenges arising from the Afghan tumult as a single coherent force. The Panchatantra has a more sensible strategy to offer — try and divide your potential adversaries and strengthen your internal unity.

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  • PPP Investment Models: HAM, Swiss Challenge, Kelkar Committee

    The National Monetisation Pipeline may not help realise the best value for assets

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Context

    The Government has launched a National Monetisation Pipeline, or NMP  to sell the revenue streams of public assets over the next four years.

    About NMP

    • Financing infrastructure: As outlined in the Union Budget, the NMP aims to mobilize resources for financing infrastructure.
    • Type of assets: The pipeline mostly includes railway stations, freight corridors, airports, and renovated national highway segments amounting to ₹6-lakh crore, or 3% of GDP in 2020-21.
    • The other two methods of raising resources are: setting up a development finance institution (DFI) and raising the share of infrastructure investment in the central and State Budgets.

    Concerns

    1) Not different from Disinvestment-Privatisation (D-P)

    • Asset monetization as defined in NMP is the same as the net present value (NPV) of the future stream of revenue with an implicit interest rate (whether it is a sale or lease of the asset).
    • Missed targets: Since D-P proceeds (revenues) have seriously missed the targets almost every year, how believable are the NMP targets? And how are they likely to perform differently?
    • If the NMP attempt to shore up public finances, such distress (fire) sale would find it difficult to obtain a “fair value” for public assets.
    • Would the market not factor in the dire state of the economy in beating down the prices, as in any distress sale?
    • The NMP document seems silent on how to overcome past mistakes.

    2) PPP mode of implementation

    • The NMP outlines mainly two modes of implementing monetization: public-private partnership (PPP) and “structured financing” to tap the stock market.
    • PPP in infrastructure has been a financial disaster in India, as evident from what happened after the economic boom of 2003-08.
    • After the 2008 financial crisis, many PPP projects failed to repay bank loans leading to the piling up of non-performing assets (NPAs) of banks.
    • Further, the bulk of the lending was too politically connected to corporate houses and firms.
    •  India is still reeling from the legacy of that period without any easy and credible solutions in sight.

    3) Stock market crash threatens the success of InvIT

    • An Infrastructure Investment Trust (InvIT) is being mooted as an alternative means of raising finance from the stock market.
    • In principle, InvIT is much like a mutual fund, whose performance is largely linked to stock prices.
    • The disinvestment process began in 1991 in which the bundles of shares of public sector enterprises (PSEs) were sold by UTI in the booming secondary stock market to realize the best price.
    • However, as the market crashed in the wake of the Harshad Mehta scam, stalling and discrediting the disinvestment process for almost the entire decade.
    • Hence, it may be worth learning the lessons from the historical missteps before exploring the idea all over again by the current stock market boom
    • At present, the U.S. Fed committed to reducing its assets purchase program (known as quantitative easing), the “hot money” inflow that has fuelled Indian stock prices may dry up throwing up nasty surprises.

    Thus, it seems unwise to anchor the acutely needed investment revival strategy on a discredited PPP model or on fickle Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) investment in a frothy stock market.

    Suggestion: Monetise debt

    • With the financial system flush with liquidity with no takers for bank credit, finance the proposed investment — as envisaged in the Budget — by government borrowing.
    • With a negative 0.4% real interest rate (real interest rate is nominal interest rate minus inflation rate), domestic borrowing in home currency is a steal.
    • No Crowding out: Chances of crowding-out private investments are remote with a liquidity overhang in the market.
    • Low inflation risk: Inflation risk is also limited with little aggregate demand pressures (barring temporary bottlenecks due to localized lockdowns).
    • Rating downgrade risk:  If the debt is productively used to expand GDP (the denominator), rating downgrade risk due to the rising Debt-GDP ratio seems minimal.
    •  Moreover, rising external debt by fickle portfolio investors perhaps carries a greater risk to external instability.

    Consider the question “How the National Monetisation Pipeline seeks to implement the asset monetisation? What are the challenges in asset monetisation?”

    Conclusion

    If reviving investment demand quickly is the real goal, debt monetisation seems a better option than asset monetisation.

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  • Trade Sector Updates – Falling Exports, TIES, MEIS, Foreign Trade Policy, etc.

    India becomes 4th largest forex reserves holder globally

    | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    India’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $835 million to touch a record high of $612.73 billion in the week ended July 16, 2021, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed.

    Forex Reserves

    India’s forex reserves cover:

    • Foreign Currency Assets (FCAs) (rose by $463 million to $568.748 billion)
    • Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) (up by $1 million at $1.548 billion)
    • Gold Reserves (up by $377 million to $37.333 billion)
    • Reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (up by $1 million at $1.548 billion)

    (Note the descending order of the shares of various components of forex reserves. UPSC can go factual here.)

    What is Foreign Exchange Reserve?

    • Foreign exchange reserves are important assets held by the central bank in foreign currencies as reserves.
    • They are commonly used to support the exchange rate and set monetary policy.
    • In India’s case, foreign reserves include Gold, Dollars, and the IMF’s quota for Special Drawing Rights.
    • Most of the reserves are usually held in US dollars, given the currency’s importance in the international financial and trading system.
    • Some central banks keep reserves in Euros, British pounds, Japanese yen, or Chinese yuan, in addition to their US dollar reserves.

    Countries with the highest foreign reserves

    Currently, China has the largest reserves followed by Japan and Switzerland. India has overtaken Russia to become the fourth largest country with foreign exchange reserves.

    1. China – $3,349 Billion
    2. Japan – $1,376 Billion
    3. Switzerland – $1,074 Billion
    4. India – $612.73 Billion
    5. Russia – $597.40 Billion

    Why are these reserves so important?

    • All international transactions are settled in US dollars and, therefore, required to support India’s imports.
    • More importantly, they need to maintain support and confidence for central bank action, whether monetary policy action or any exchange rate intervention to support the domestic currency.
    • It also helps to limit any vulnerability due to sudden disturbances in foreign capital flows, which may arise during a crisis.
    • Holding liquid foreign currency provides a cushion against such effects and provides confidence that there will still be enough foreign exchange to help the country with crucial imports in case of external shocks.

    Initiatives taken by the government to increase forex

    • To increase the foreign exchange reserves, the Government of India has taken many initiatives like AatmaNirbhar Bharat, in which India has to be made a self-reliant nation so that India does not have to import things that India can produce.
    • Other than AatmaNirbhar Bharat, the government has started schemes like Duty Exemption Scheme, Remission of Duty or Taxes on Export Product (RoDTEP), Nirvik (Niryat Rin Vikas Yojana) scheme, etc.
    • Apart from these schemes, India is one of the top countries that attracted the highest amount of Foreign Direct Investment, thereby improving India’s foreign exchange reserves.

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