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  • PPP Investment Models: HAM, Swiss Challenge, Kelkar Committee

    The possibility of a two-front war

    op-ed snap | Security Issues | Mains Paper 3: Various Security Forces, Agencies & Their Mandates

    The possibility of a two-front war has been debated for long in the Indian security establishment. However, the Galwan valley incident has added an urgency to that possibility. 

     

    Two front situation

    • In the Indian military’s thinking, while China was the more powerful, the chance of a conventional conflict breaking out was low.
    • The Chinese intrusions in Ladakh in May this year, the violence that resulted from clashes have now made the Chinese military threat more apparent and real.
    • This comes at a time when the situation along the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan has been steadily deteriorating.
    • Between 2017 and 2019, there has been a four-fold increase in ceasefire violations.
    • The larger challenge for India’s military would come if the hostilities break out along the northern border with China.
    • In such a situation, it is unlikely that Pakistan would initiate a large-scale conflict to capture significant chunks of territory as that would lead to a full-blown war between three nuclear-armed states.

    China-Pakistan relationship

    • China has always looked at Pakistan as a counter to India’s influence in South Asia.
    • There is a great deal of alignment in their strategic thinking.
    • Military cooperation is growing, with China accounting for 73% of the total arms imports of Pakistan between 2015-2019.
    • It would, therefore, be prudent for India to be ready for a two-front threat.

    The dilemma for India: In resources and strategy

    • It is neither practical nor feasible to build a level of capability that enables independent warfighting on both fronts.
    • A major decision will be the quantum of resources to be allocated for the primary front. This is the dilemma of resources.
    • If a majority of the assets of the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force are sent towards the northern border, it will require the military to rethink its strategy for the western border.
    • This is the second dilemma.
    • Even though Pakistan may only be pursuing a hybrid war, should the Indian military remain entirely defensive?
    • Adopting a more offensive strategy against Pakistan could draw limited resources into a wider conflict.

    Way forward

    • We need to develop both the doctrine and the capability to deal with this contingency.
    • Capability building also requires a serious debate, particularly in view of the country’s economic situation.
    • We need to focus on future technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence, cyber, electronic warfare, etc.
    • The right balance will have to be struck based on a detailed assessment of China and Pakistan’s war-fighting strategies.
    • Diplomacy has a crucial role to play.
    • India would do well to improve relations with its neighbors so as not to be caught in an unfriendly neighborhood.
    • The engagement of the key powers in West Asia, including Iran, should be further strengthened.
    • Relationship with Moscow should not be sacrificed in favor of India-United States relations given that Russia could play a key role in defusing the severity of a regional gang up against India.
    • Political outreach to Kashmir aimed at pacifying the aggrieved citizens would help in easing the pressure from the western front.

    Consider the question “India faces the possibility of a two-front war. What strategy India should follow to deal with such a challenge?” 

    Conclusion

    A politically-guided doctrine, comprehensive military capability, and exploring other options will help to deal with the China-Pakistan threat.

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  • Dealing with the challenges India faces

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests,Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters

    The article deals with the challeges India has to deal with in 2021 on the various front like foreign policy and economy.

    Major challenge of 2020

    • The COVID-19 pandemic, which embraced every segment of Indian society was the most insidious threat.
    • Since April, India has confronted an unprecedented situation on the border with China in eastern Ladakh.
    • Ever since, the border has remained live; as of now there is no end in sight.
    • Chinese behaviour at the border has led to a grave hiatus in India-China relations.
    • Internal problems such as Naxalite violence and Jammu and Kashmir endured during much of 2020.
    • The economy is in recession. India has slipped further down the scale in the Human Development Index.
    • Slippages have occurred in the Global Economic Freedom Index.

    How India should deal with the challenges ahead

    1) China challenge and foreign policy

    • In foreign policy India must not remain content or satisfied with the current stand-off with China in the Ladakh sector.
    • The conflict with China is enabling many of its neighbours to play China against India.
    • So, India should think of what better options are available to it to resolve that conflict
    • To tackle China, India must come up with a whole new paradigm of ideas on which further actions can be formulated.

    2) State of the economy

    • India must seek to enhance its competitive advantage vis-a-vis other nations.
    • India should focus on export-oriented economic strategy instead of looking inward to enlarge its economy.
    • India should enhance its export capacity.
    • India’s strength lies in its diversity, and its ability to utilise all available opportunities.
    • The other pressing challenge in 2021 would be job creation for the youth, who are India’s most abiding asset.
    • The government must take urgent steps to set right the disruptions in the labour market caused by the pandemic.
    • Creating new jobs in new industries should be a critical requirement.
    • Stimulating demand would ensure growth in job opportunities, and this should go hand in hand with this task.
    • The importance of such measures must not be underestimated.

    3) Restoring confidence in constitutional practices

    • The government to restore confidence in constitutional proprieties, practices and principles.
    • There is a crisis of confidence which is affecting the body politic.
    • The starting point would be effecting an improvement in Centre-State relations, particularly between Centre and States.
    • As digital technology advances, concerns that an unduly centralised Central government could use this to further reduce the independent authority of States will again need to be dispelled.
    • Effective cooperation between the Centre and the States must be restored as early as possible to instil confidence about India’s democratic future.

    Consider the question “What are the challenges ahead for Indian economy in the wake of economic disruption caused by the pandemic? Suggest the way to deal with these challenges.”

    Conclusion

    As 2020 comes to a close, it might be worthwhile to take a hard look at these issues to ensure that 2021 does not become another wasted year.

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  • Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

    Dangers lurking beneath economic recovery

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    As Indian economy recovers from the economic disruption caused by the pandemic, there are dangers of rising inequality and cosequently the rising inflation. The article deals with these issues.

    3 features of Indian recovery

    • 1) The number of new cases has fallen while the fatality rate continues to drop.
    • 2) India has rolled out one of the smallest fiscal support packages globally, with central government spending flat so far this year.
    • 3) Inflation is now a big problem, with consumer prices above the 6 per cent tolerance level for the past eight months.

    Consequences of low fiscal spending

    • It may seem that India is back on the path to recovery.
    • But  the low level of fiscal spending could leave behind other problems, such as rising inequality.
    • Although, in India there was a focus on vulnerable section, there were some misses, such as the urban poor being left out, and the overall outlay was small.
    • For instance, demand for the rural employment guarantee programme continues to outstrip supply.
    • There is the rise in inequality between large and small firms, which is likely to be felt by individual employees.
    • Large firms were helped by cost-cutting, low interest rates, access to buoyant capital markets and increased spending in the formal economy probably helped.
    • The smaller listed firms did not do as well.
    • Small firms are more labour intensive than large firms.
    • If small firms do poorly, it impacts a large number of people.
    • All this could impact demand over time.
    • Rising inequality could stoke inflation (in services particular).
    • Consumption patterns show that the rich in India tend to consume more services than the poor.
    • And rising inequality could, therefore, stoke inflation.

    Possibility of services inflation

    • 1) As a vaccine comes into play, there could be a release of pent-up demand for high-touch services.
    • 2) As large firms and their employees do relatively well, they are likely to demand more services, stoking prices.
    • 3) Many service providers did not do a regular annual price reset in 2020, so they may raise prices to cover the two years once demand picks up.
    • If inflation does become persistent and leads to tighter monetary policy, that could weigh on growth over time.

    Way forward

    • To control inflation in 2021, the RBI may have to take steps such as:-
    • 1) Gradually drain the excess liquidity in the banking sector,
    • 2) Provide a floor for short-term rates, which have fallen below the reverse repo rate.
    • 3) Narrow the policy rate corridor by raising the reverse repo rate.
    • A quicker exit from loose monetary policy could become another area where India differs from the world.

    Consider the question “What are the consequences of economic recovery in the wake of pandemic? Suggest the ways to deal with these consquences.”

    Conclusion

    Putting all of this together, it seems India will come full circle in 2021. For a while it was worried more about weak growth than high inflation. But as growth recovers, inflationary concerns could reappear.

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  • Anti Defection Law

    Governor’s role in calling an Assembly Session

    | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Indian Constitution – historical underpinnings, evolution, features, amendments, significant provisions and basic structure

    In yet another tug-of-war between Kerala Governor and CM, the Governor has turned down a request to summon a special sitting of the Assembly to debate the new three central farm laws.

    Q.The political nature of the office of the Governor, especially in Opposition-ruled states, has been underlined in several instances by courts. Discuss.

    Governor and Assembly Session

    • The Governor shall from time to time summon the House or each House of the Legislature of the State to meet at such time and place as he thinks fit…” says Article 174 of the Constitution.
    • The provision also puts on the Governor the responsibility of ensuring that the House is summoned at least once every six months.
    • Although it is the Governor’s prerogative to summon the House, according to Article 163, the Governor is required to act on the “aid and advice” of the Cabinet.
    • So when the Governor summons the House under Article 174, this is not of his or her own will but on the aid and advice of the Cabinet.

    Can the Governor refuse the aid and advice of the Cabinet?

    • There are a few instances where the Governor can summon the House despite the refusal of the Chief Minister who heads the Cabinet.
    • When the CM appears to have lost the majority and the legislative members of the House propose a no-confidence motion against the CM, then the Governor can decide on his or her own on summoning the House.
    • But the actions of the Governor, when using his discretionary powers can be challenged in court.

    Precursors set by the Supreme Court

    • A number of rulings by the Supreme Court have settled the position that the Governor cannot refuse the request of a Cabinet that enjoys the majority in the House unless it is patently unconstitutional.
    • The latest in the line of rulings is the landmark 2016 Constitution Bench ruling in which the Supreme Court looked into the constitutional crisis in Arunachal Pradesh.
    • The Governor had imposed President’s Rule in the state of Arunachal.
    • In ordinary circumstances during the period when the CM enjoy the confidence of the majority, the power vested under Article 174 must be exercised with the aid and advice of the CM and his CoM.
    • In the above situation, he/she has precluded [from taking] an individual call on the issue at his own will, or in his own discretion, the verdict said.
    • The court read: the power to summon the House as a “function” of the Governor and not a “power” he enjoys.

    What Sarkaria Commission had said?

    • The Sarkaria Commission of 1983, reviewed the arrangements between the Centre and the states, had said that so long as the CoM enjoys the confidence of the Assembly, its advice in these matters, unless patently unconstitutional must be deemed as binding on the Governor.
    • It is only where such advice if acted upon, would lead to an infringement of a constitutional provision if the CoM has ceased to enjoy the confidence of the Assembly.

    What happens if the Kerala government insists on holding the special session?

    • Since the Governor’s powers are limited with regard to summoning the House, there can be no legal ground to deny a request for summoning the session.
    • In such a political row, the Governor’s refusal can also be challenged in court.

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  • North-East India – Security and Developmental Issues

    What is Inner-Line Permit?

    | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Federalism

    Union Home Minister has said that Inner-Line Permit (ILP) had been the Centre’s biggest gift to Manipur since its statehood.

    Note the states where ILP is required.

    The Inner Line

    • A concept drawn by colonial rulers, the Inner Line separated the tribal-populated hill areas in the Northeast from the plains.
    • To enter and stay for any period in these areas, Indian citizens from other areas need an Inner Line Permit (ILP).
    • Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Mizoram are protected by the Inner Line, and lately, Manipur was added (in December last year).
    • The concept originates from the Bengal Eastern Frontier Regulation Act (BEFR), 1873.

    Its’ Inception

    • The policy of exclusion first came about as a response to the reckless expansion of British entrepreneurs into new lands which threatened British political relations with the hill tribes.
    • The BEFR prohibits an outsider’s — “British subject or foreign citizen” — entry into the are beyond the Inner Line without a pass and his purchase of land there.
    • On the other hand, the Inner Line also protects the commercial interests of the British from the tribal communities.
    • After Independence, the Indian government replaced “British subjects” with “Citizen of India”.
    • Today, the main aim of the ILP system is to prevent settlement of other Indian nationals in the States where the ILP regime is prevalent, in order to protect the indigenous/tribal population.

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  • Modern Indian History-Events and Personalities

    Who was freedom fighter Udham Singh?

    Prelims Only | | Mains Paper 1: Modern Indian History

    December 26 was the birth anniversary of freedom fighter Udham Singh, who is known for avenging the Jallianwala Bagh massacre of 1919.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q.The Ghadr (Ghadar) was a –

    (a) Revolutionary association of Indians with headquarters at San Francisco.

    (b) Nationalist organization operating from Singapore

    (c) Militant organization with headquarters at Berlin

    (d) Communist movement for India’s freedom with head-quarters at Tashkent

    Who was Udham Singh?

    • Singh, born in Sunam in Punjab’s Sangrur district in 1899, was a political activist who got associated with the Ghadar Party while in the US.
    • The multi-ethnic party was believed to have communist tendencies and was founded by Sohan Singh Bhakna in 1913.
    • Headquartered in California, the party was committed to the ouster of the British from India.
    • In 1934, Singh made his way to London with the purpose of assassinating O’Dwyer, who in 1919 had been the Lieutenant Governor of Punjab.

    Why did he consider O’Dwyer responsible for the massacre?

    • O’Dwyer ordered Brigadier Reginald Dyer to Amritsar before the massacre; he was worried that there might be a second Indian mutiny, given the Hindu-Muslim unity and the demonstrations and strikes.
    • Instead of Dyer, O’Dwyer is considered to be the actual perpetrator, since Dyer could not have executed it without his permission.
    • On March 13, 1940, Udham Singh shot O’Dwyer at a meeting of the East India Association and the Royal Central Asian Society at Caxton Hill.
    • He was immediately arrested and held in Brixton prison and was sentenced to death and was hanged on July 31, 1940, at Pentonville Prison.

    A legend in India

    • For avenging the Jallianwala Bagh massacre, Singh is seen by many as a hero. Gandhi, though, had famously called Singh’s revenge as an “act of insanity”.
    • While being on trial, he referred to himself as Mohamed Singh Azad, to symbolize Hindu-Sikh-Muslim unity in the fight for India’s freedom.
    • In 1974, his remains were sent back to India and he was cremated in his village in Sunam.
    • There have been several demands in the past few years for Udham Singh’s statue to be installed in Jallianwala Bagh and the Parliament complex.
    • In 2018, his statue was installed at Jallianwala Bagh during Baisakhi.
    • Udham Singh Nagar district in Uttarakhand is named after the freedom fighter.

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  • New Species of Plants and Animals Discovered

    Species in news: Wild Sun Rose (Portulaca Laljii)

    Species | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    Botanists have discovered a new species of wild Sun Rose from the Eastern Ghats in India.

    Try this PYQ from CSP 2018:

    Q.Why is a plant called Prosopis juliflora often mentioned in the news?

    (a) Its extract is widely used in cosmetics.

    (b) It tends to reduce the biodiversity in the area in which it grows

    (c) Its extract is used in the pesticides.

    (d) None of the above

    Portulaca Laljii

    • The new species named Portulaca laljii was discovered from the Prakasam district of Andhra Pradesh.
    • It has unique features such as a tuberous root, no hair in its leaf axils, a reddish-pink flower, prolate-shaped fruits, and copper brown seeds without luster.
    • Portulaca Laljii has been named to honor the contribution of Lal Ji Singh, an eminent botanist of the Botanical Survey of India.
    • The species has been placed under the ‘Data Deficient’ category of the IUCN List of Threatened Species because very little information is available about the population of the species.

    Morphological features

    • These morphological features distinguish the species from other species of the genus Portulaca.
    • The flowers, which are reddish-pink in color, are very minute, at about 0.5mm.
    • The plant was found growing in rocky crevices at an altitude of about 1,800 meters above mean sea level, very close to the ground, at about less than 10 cm.
    • The plants belonging genus Portulaca are classified in the category Sun Rose because they flower in bright sunshine.
    • The genus was described by Linnaeus in 1753 as a type genus of the flowering plant family Portulacaceae.

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  • Health Sector – UHC, National Health Policy, Family Planning, Health Insurance, etc.

    [pib] PM-JAY SEHAT

    PIB | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Health & Education

    The Prime Minister has launched Ayushman Bharat PM-JAY SEHAT to extend coverage to all residents of Jammu & Kashmir.

    Q.Discuss various challenges in ensuring Universal Healthcare in India. (150W)

    PM-JAY SEHAT

    • The full form of SEHAT is social, endeavor for health, and telemedicine. Under this scheme, the SEHAT card will be distributed to all the eligible beneficiaries.
    • All the eligible beneficiaries of Jammu and Kashmir can apply for the Scheme through common service center operators
    • Around 1 crore beneficiaries will cover under this scheme. All the eligible citizens of Jammu and Kashmir will get cashless treatment up to Rs 5 lakh under the Scheme.

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  • Important Judgements In News

    Deconstructing the opposition between merit and reservation

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Laws, Institutions & Bodies Constituted For The Vulnerable Sections

    The Supreme Court in recent judgement in Saurav Yadav Vs. State of Uttar Pradesh made it clear that reservation and merit are not mutually exclusive. The article deals with this issue.

    Vertical Vs. Horizontal reservation

    • Articles 15(4) and 16(4) enable vertical reservation based on slotting the population in terms of SC, ST, OBC, and General Category.
    • But there is also a class of reservations that cuts across all these categories and are referred to as horizontal reservation.
    • Horizontal reservation includes a reservation for women differently-abled persons, freedom fighters, army veterans, etc.

    Specifying the relationship between horizontal and vertical reservation

    • In cases like Anil Kumar Gupta v/s State of Uttar Pradesh, the Court had made it clear that horizontal reservation ought to be generally understood in compartmentalized terms: recognition of inequalities within each vertical category.
    •  In a particular case, candidates were excluded from competing from the General Category positions even though they have scored more, simply because they were OBC.
    • However, some state governments are trying to use the open category seats as a quota for general category candidates.
    • The High Courts had been giving contrary directions: Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh excluded reserved category women for consideration in the general category.
    • Rajasthan and Gujarat, amongst others, included them.
    • The Supreme Court, in a three-judge bench, ruled against the UP government and clarified the relationship between horizontal and vertical reservations.

    Analyzing the judgment

    • The judgments reiterate the principle that groups eligible for horizontal reservation cannot be excluded from the open category seats because they are from other vertically reserved category communities, like SC or OBC.
    • Women from all categories are eligible to be considered for the open category.
    • It also made it clear that the open category seats are not meant to be a quota for the non-reserved categories.

    Merit Vs. Reservation

    • The Court has often contrasted merit with reservation.
    • But this has always been a mistaken view of the relationship between merit and reservation.
    • In principle, reservation is an instrument for identifying merit in individuals from historically marginalized communities.
    • The Court is saying that by excluding the adjustment of OBC women who had scored higher against general category seats, the UP government was ironically using the General Category to exclude meritorious candidates.
    • When the Court is using the term merit, it is simply pointing out that certain selection criteria are being used.
    • Such selection criteria are also within particular reserved categories: which is also a function of selection criteria, in this case, marks.
    • From this point of view, even those who advocate reservation do not fully give up on the meritocratic criteria of selection — they just apply it differentially.
    • What the Court was concerned with is fairness in the application of the selection criteria within the overall framework of reservation.

    Conclusion

    What the court is trying to say something more interesting: Members of the reserved category must be fully considered as falling under the rubric of being potentially meritorious.

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  • President’s Rule

    Possibility of judicial use or misuse of Article 356

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Indian Constitution – historical underpinnings, evolution, features, amendments, significant provisions and basic structure

    Article 356 and the word ‘otherwise’ in it has led to the recent Andhra Pradesh High Court order. The order raises several questions. The article deal with this issue.

    Controversial High Court order

    • Recently the Andhra Pradesh High Court directed the Andhra Pradesh government to come prepared to argue on the ‘breakdown of constitutional machinery in the state’.
    • The order opens up the possibility of use or even misuse of Article 356 by the judiciary.
    • The Supreme Court of India has stayed the order.
    • However, we need to go deeper into this observation and look at the controversial provision of Article 356 due to which the High Court could make such an observation.

    Historical background of the article

    • Both India and Pakistan borrowed this provision from the Government of India Act, 1935.
    • Interestingly, the leaders of our freedom struggle were so very opposed to this provision that they forced the British government to suspend it.
    • The provision which we had opposed during our freedom struggle was incorporated in the Constitution strangely in the name of democracy, federalism and stability.
    • It was agreed in the Constituent Assembly that the Governor could use this emergency power.
    • By this time the Governor was supposed to be elected by the people of the State rather than nominated by the Centre.
    • After several revisions, provision became Article 278 (now Article 356).

    The issue with the word ‘otherwise’

    • H.V. Kamath criticised the word ‘otherwise’ and said only god knows what ‘otherwise’ means.
    • As the Governor had been made a nominee of the Centre by this time, he asked why the President could not have confidence in his own nominees.
    • ‘Otherwise’ can include anything including a presidential dream of breakdown of constitutional machinery in a state.
    • The Andhra Pradesh High Court could pass such an order due to this very term ‘otherwise’.
    • This word negates the ideals of constitutionalism by giving unlimited powers to the Centre, also allowed the High Court to overstepped the line.
    • But this is not the first instance of judicial overreach on this issue.
    • On August 13, 1997, a Patna High Court had observed that the High Court could also report to the President about the breakdown of constitutional machinery in the State.

    Repeated misuse of Article 356

    • In the very first invocation of Article 356 in 1951, central government removed the Gopi Chand Bhargava ministry in Punjab though he enjoyed the majority.
    • In 1959, it was used against the majority opposition government of the E.M.S. Namboodripad government in Kerala.
    • Indira Gandhi used Article 356 as many as 27 times.
    • The most notable case of non-use of Article 356 was the refusal of the P.V. Narasimha Rao government prior to the demolition of the Babri Masjid.

    Consider the question “Examine the contest in which the word ‘otherwise’ in Article 356 leads to judiciary exercising its powers. What are the concerns in such case?”

    Conclusion

    Ideally, the word ‘otherwise’ should be deleted from Article 356 and the provision be used only sparingly and to never remove a majority government.

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